After a big jump in March, retail sales likely cooled in April, according to BofA’s almost omniscient forecast as they see spending on gasoline providing a smaller boost and auto sales moderating, after an early Easter pulled forward some seasonal demand into March. The “holiday shift” dynamic also may have contributed to softer activity after Easter.
However, the actual print was +0.5% MoM (as consensus expected – and hotter than BofA’s forecast), lifting sales by 4.9% YoY – the strongest gain since Aug 2025
Source: Bloomberg
Gas Stations and Nonstore (Online) Retailers were the biggest positive factor while Motor Vehicle & Parts and Clothing were the biggest drags…
Source: Bloomberg
Most importantly, the ‘Control Group’ which plugs into the GDP calculation rose 0.5% MoM (better than expected) and March was revised higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, ‘real’ retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) have rebounded from a negative print in December…
Source: Bloomberg
So far it seems spending continues despite record low consumer sentiment?
Who exactly is UMich surveying for this?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/14/2026 – 08:39
