Asian and European equities climbed on Monday, while U.S. equity futures jumped and Brent crude fell, as signs of a possible U.S.-Iran deal boosted risk appetite. To note, the U.S. is on holiday.
Both sides appear to be moving closer to ending the three-month conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, overnight comments from senior Iranian officials suggest gaps remain, particularly over the future of Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment.
“It is true that a consensus was reached on many of the topics discussed, but no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters in response to a question on the progress in negotiations.
According to Baghaei, “It is fair to say that we have reached understandings on many issues, but whether this means an agreement is imminent is something no one can claim at this stage.” #US #Iran https://t.co/sQhizVBYBl
— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) May 25, 2026
Earlier today, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump team had expected more details on progress in the US-Iran deal and may still have an update soon.
“We thought we might have some news last night. Maybe today,” Rubio told reporters in New Delhi during his multi-day visit to India.
President Trump on Sunday said, “Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb.”
Trump added that the US naval blockade of the Hormuz maritime chokepoint would remain in place until a peace deal is signed and that both sides must take their time to “get it right.”
Al Jazeera quoted Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency, which said Iran will discuss its nuclear program with U.S. negotiators once the Trump team fulfills its commitments under a potential MOU being negotiated.
BREAKING: Iran says it would discuss its nuclear programme with the US if Washington fulfils its commitments under a potential MOU being negotiated, a senior diplomat told the semi-official ISNA news agency.
🔴 More on https://t.co/5H0QqpfIYw pic.twitter.com/5xAZohOx5W
— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 25, 2026
Bloomberg noted that major gaps remain in the peace talks:
Still, the broad agreement described by US officials does not address Iran’s missile stockpile nor does it contain an explicit ban on uranium enrichment — two of Trump’s most important goals.
Latest headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Deal Progress
• The US and Iran are closing in on a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to senior US officials on Sunday
• Trump said on Truth Social that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, but the US will not rush into a deal
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said consensus was reached on many topics but no one can claim that signing an agreement is imminent
• Trump stated the deal will either be great and meaningful or there won’t be a deal, calling it the exact opposite of the JCPOA disaster
• Pakistan has been serving as a mediator in the talks between the US and Iran over several weeks
Market Reaction
• Oil prices plunged more than 5% with WTI crude falling to around $91 and Brent dropping below $98 a barrel on deal optimism
• US stock futures rose with S&P 500 futures climbing 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 contracts jumping 1.4%
• Japan’s Topix hit an all-time high closing at 3,942.57 and the Nikkei advanced 2.9% to a record 65,158.19
• European natural gas dropped as much as 6.7% on optimism about the potential deal
Wall Street Commentary
• UBS analyst George Redman: Watch Out For Holiday-Thinned Liquidity And Exaggerated Moves
Eurostoxx is up 1% to start the week as markets lean into a tentative risk-on tone after weekend reports that a US-Iran MoU to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin a further negotiation window is now “largely negotiated”. It however feels more like relief than resolution since Tehran has yet to formally approve the deal and sticking points remain around the nuclear issue, Hormuz tolling and frozen assets. US President Donald Trump later said “time is on our side”.
Asia has broadly validated the positive tone, with Nikkei making all-time highs, led by AI, Taiwan, Australia, and mainland China higher. The SPX is firmer, oil down 5.6% with WTI at $91.1 and Brent $98 as crude risk premium unwinds, and FX shows a softer US dollar versus majors alongside gains in AUD, NZD and regional risk proxies. JGBs and Aussie bonds bull flattened in holiday impaired trade. The market is taking comfort from signs of improving tanker movement through Hormuz, but the full normalisation of shipping, insurance and physical crude flows will likely take time given bottlenecks, damaged infrastructure, and security concerns, so Europe should trade better but still with anticipation of delays / lagging effects.
With the US, UK, Norway, Denmark and Switzerland closed, liquidity will be thin and price action may be exaggerated, while the bigger macro constraint remains rates. Sticky US PCE, rising public and hyperscaler debt, AI-led capex inflation despite future deflation promises and increasingly hawkish ECB rhetoric mean rates may not fall as aggressively as hoped until the energy shock fades durably. US PCE, central bank commentary and mega-cap tech capex updates provide cleaner confirmation.
Strait of Hormuz
• Iran is charging ships fees for navigation services when transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei
• Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has been quietly ferrying oil and gas shipments through Hormuz using dark transits with transponders switched off
• A supertanker with Iraqi crude crossed the US blockade line into the Arabian Sea carrying about 2 million barrels to China
• Three LNG tankers from Qatar and UAE appear to have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent days to reach key buyers
Regional Impact
• Saudi Arabia is scoring billions in added oil revenue and building trading hub ambitions during the Iran war
• China’s Xi Jinping thanked Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif for mediating in the Iran conflict during their Monday meeting in Beijing
• Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei faces a momentous decision over whether to accept an interim peace deal with the US
Charting Markets Reactions
Brent Crude Futs
S&P500 Futs
Global Equity Futs
Polymarket: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Polymarket: US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?
Nothing says “no deal” quite like a future promise to keep talking.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/25/2026 – 07:30
