Summary

• US-Iran talks uncertain: as Iran has stuck by its conditions while engaging Kushner-Witkoff in NY at UN.

• Iran threatens escalation beyond Persian Gulf: Tehran warned the conflict could spread to the Indian Ocean if attacked again.

• Yemen front intensifies: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles.

• Oil markets react: Renewed tensions pushed Brent crude to $106/barrel, undermining hopes for a quick deal.

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Tehran Willing to Strike Deal Before Midterm Elections

President Trump has on multiple occasions indicated his belief that Iran will hold off making a deal to end the war until after the US midterm elections in November. In somewhat surprising statements which contradict this, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has just told American media that Tehran is willing to strike an agreement before the midterms. Per the Thursday afternoon NBC report:

“We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections,” Pezeshkian said Thursday in a brief meeting with NBC News and other news organizations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

“We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms,” Pezeshkian added, referring to a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran that laid out plans for a temporary ceasefire. The agreement, signed in June, eventually collapsed.

Meanwhile, even if an Iran deal is stuck soon – and this is a big if at this point, there remains the Yemen conflict: Yemen’s Houthis say they attacked Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu; attacked what they called a “sensitive target” in Saudi capital Riyadh, it’s being reported.

Denial of Deal Optimism Headlines

Iranian journalist and analyst Mohammad Ghaderi, who often accurately presents Tehran’s point of view or reaction to fast-paced events, has slammed the earlier Reuters report as ‘false’.

That prior report said that the “US and Iran reportedly discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, according to Reuters citing sources.” But the reaction from Tehran is below:

The Reuters report is false and its goal is to control the price of oil. no negotiations are underway. #Iran‘s position remains unchanged: the U.S. must fulfill the stipulated conditions in a single step so that the Strait of #Hormuz can be opened under Iranian control. Period.

— Mohammad Ghaderi | محمد قادری (@ghaderi62) September 24, 2026

Additionally this is via Israel’s i24: “A senior Israeli official says “The chance of an agreement between the US and Iran is ‘small’ – but not impossible’.”

Reuters Headline Signals [Dubious] Return to ‘Deal in Motion’

Crude tumbles on a new Reuters report signaling a return to [dubious?] ‘deal in motion’ headlines: US and Iran reportedly discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, according to Reuters citing sources

This seems just a reiteration of Iranian demands, but crude still reacted (per Rtrs):

• A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets.
• Neither side wants to surrender leverage driving diplomacy
• Iran signals flexibility on fees, not on Strait of Hormuz
• Gulf states reject Iranian control of the strait

Iran Threatens to Spread War to Indian Ocean

It was just this month which saw the Iran conflict spill over into a renewed fight between the Saudi coalition and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Now Iran is threatening to expand the fight further, even into the Indian Ocean.

Yahya Rahim Safavi, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned Thursday of another significant expanse of the war if the Islamic Republic suffers attack again.

“Since the conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, it is possible that, in response to more war, the front will expand even further, reaching the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond,” said Safavi in a video published by Iran’s Fars news agency.

This marks the first time that an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader explicitly mentioned hitting targets in the Indian Ocean as a heightened military threat.

The strategic British military base at Diego Garcia, which is also heavily used by the United States, lies deep in the Indian Ocean – some 2400 miles away.

The Iranians are believed to have actually fired ICBMs on the base at the height of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury.

Diego Garcia was first targeted on March 21st, with The Wall Street Journal at the time reporting that one missile had a mid-flight malfunction, while the other was engaged by an SM-3 interceptor missile fired from a US Navy vessel, though it’s unclear whether this latter projectile ever hit its target.

Brent surged to around $106 after a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader said Tehran may expand the war to the Indian Ocean if the US or Israel attacks again, further undercutting hopes of a deal. —Bloomberg

Iranian negotiators are vowing they will not back off Tehran’s firm conditions for ending the war, after this week sitting down with the US team in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Saudi Arabia Says Intercepted 6 Houthi Missiles

Meanwhile another attack on the Saudi kingdom by the Houthis:

Saudi led coalition in Yemen says it intercepted six ballistic missiles launched by Iran-backed Houthis

“They broke the agreement and committed another vicious act. We have therefore toughened our conditions,” spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohbi told AFP in an interview this week. He also said that if the US doesn’t change its trajectory, it “will only make things difficult for themselves”.

“We are not their playthings, and they cannot unilaterally violate an agreement they signed whenever they please,” he emphasized.

Bloomberg just dropped the most disturbing investigation I have read this year, and every AI builder should read it and take it seriously.

On February 28, two Tomahawk missiles hit an elementary school in Minab, a small town in southern Iran. 156 people died. At least 123 were… pic.twitter.com/RqT1lwzsLP

— Ihtesham Ali (@ihteshamali) September 23, 2026

“We believe we have won this war, and we are currently consolidating that victory into a total deterrent force,“ he added.

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