Submitted by The Bureau’s Sam Cooper,

 The case of Fatima Qurban-Ali, a 30-year-old Canadian sentenced recently in New Zealand for attempting to import nearly 10 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine on a flight from Vancouver — coerced at gunpoint by a transnational drug syndicate, the court heard — has illuminated a troubling global pattern.

Across a series of recent prosecutions, New Zealand Customs records and sentencing reports show that Canada — particularly Vancouver’s port and airport — has become a major node in the production and shipment of synthetic narcotics by networks supplied through China-based syndicates and Mexican cartels.

Qurban-Ali, an immigrant from Afghanistan whose brother worked as a translator for U.S. and New Zealand forces, arrived in Auckland from Vancouver on December 8, 2024, carrying a red duffel bag filled with packages wrapped in festive paper. Inside, Customs officers found 9.9 kilograms of methamphetamine with an 80 percent purity — a haul valued at roughly NZ$2.9 million.

At her sentencing in Manukau District Court, the judge accepted that Qurban-Ali had acted under threat of violence. Evidence showed she had been lured under false pretences — told she would provide “bottle service” for wealthy clients at a private event similar to ones she’d worked in Vancouver — only to be threatened at gunpoint when she tried to back out.

Her lawyer said Qurban-Ali, an honours graduate who had worked with Indigenous communities in Canada, was “extremely susceptible and vulnerable” to manipulation. Her brother, an interpreter for the U.S. military who once assisted New Zealand forces in Afghanistan, has been missing since 2021.

The judge agreed her case was consistent with coercive recruitment — “how international syndicates tend to obtain their couriers and custodians” — and imposed a three-year, two-month sentence. But as New Zealand’s Stuff reported, her story was part of a larger trend. Just thirty minutes earlier, another Canadian, David Blanchard, was convicted for smuggling a similar quantity of methamphetamine — his crime driven by addiction and the promise of quick money.

Also in August 2025, Customs records show, authorities intercepted a 124-kilogram shipment of methamphetamine concealed in machinery parts shipped by air freight from Canada and allegedly linked to the Auckland-based Killer Beez gang. The drugs’ street value exceeded NZ$37 million.

Police said the operation — dubbed Vault — followed a series of “dry runs” in June consisting of machine-part shipments from Canada designed to test border vulnerabilities.

In September 2025, a 23-year-old Canadian woman received six years’ imprisonment after Customs officers found 15 kilograms of methamphetamine in her luggage on a flight from Vancouver.

And from The Bureau’s earlier reporting, three men were convicted last week in the largest methamphetamine seizure ever recorded at New Zealand’s border — 713.8 kilograms of the drug disguised as maple-syrup bottles, shipped from Vancouver’s port in January 2023. That single load carried an estimated social-harm value of NZ$800 million.

2. The maple-syrup consignment was not an isolated operation, according to New Zealand Police. In parallel, Australian authorities launched Operation Parkes after the Canada Border Services Agency identified another suspicious Canadian export — 18 pallets of canola oil shipped…

— Sam Cooper (@scoopercooper) October 3, 2025

Together, these prosecutions reveal a striking pattern: repeated meth consignments originating in Canada, exploiting both air-cargo and passenger routes to penetrate New Zealand’s lucrative market.

Former U.S. DEA Operations Chief Derek Maltz, who led international cartel investigations under Project Sentry, told The Bureau the trend emerging in New Zealand and Australia mirrors what he has tracked globally. Chinese and Mexican criminal networks — with Chinese actors supplying chemical precursors and laundering proceeds from fentanyl, methamphetamine, and cocaine, and Mexican cartels managing large-scale production and distribution — have been shifting parts of their operations beyond Mexico, into countries including Canada.

“They’re getting inundated in Australia with cocaine. Same with New Zealand. And now, of course, they’re getting hit with fentanyl shipments. And I believe — I don’t have proof of this — that a lot of it’s coming from these Canadian production operations,” Maltz said.

His assessment aligns with mounting evidence from both hemispheres: Canada has become a strategic transshipment and production hub for synthetic narcotics sourced from China’s chemical and Triad-linked supply base, feeding the lucrative Pacific drug markets.

The deeper roots of the network now targeting New Zealand — which investigators believe include elite Chinese Triad leadership operating from mainland China, Hong Kong, and Canada — stretch back several years. In 2023, Hong Kong national Chi Pang Li was sentenced to ten years and four months in prison after a New Zealand Customs investigation uncovered a parcel-post smuggling operation that moved 20.9 kilograms of methamphetamine from Canada into New Zealand.

Investigators found nine packages of methamphetamine hidden inside tubs of protein powder, each parcel weighing more than two kilograms. All were traced to Canadian postal origins, revealing an organized trafficking route already linking Canadian exporters to Chinese supply sources.

The methods Li’s network used in New Zealand — employing fictitious names and short-term Auckland rental addresses to receive deliveries — mirror techniques seen in Canada, where chemical-precursor shipments from China are processed in a sprawling network of drug labs across British Columbia, according to The Bureau’s investigations.

A Canadian police intelligence source said Chinese networks are exploiting Canada’s Non-Resident Import system, which allows foreign nationals to receive opaque shipments from China under minimal scrutiny.

Customs Manager Cam Moore said Li first entered New Zealand legally from Hong Kong in 2018 as part of a tour group but disappeared the day before departure.

“Li remained in New Zealand unlawfully and, as Customs’ investigations uncovered, he embarked on a smuggling enterprise that involved bringing significant quantities of drugs into New Zealand, which imposed both social and economic harm on our country,” Moore said.

Li’s methods — using Canadian postal channels, false identities, and short-term rental addresses in New Zealand — foreshadowed the much larger air-freight and maritime consignments that followed. His case shows that by 2020, Chinese non-resident import-export networks operating through Canada were already coordinating narcotics flows into Oceania, embedding operatives on both the export and import sides. They exploited the lighter scrutiny applied to Canadian shipments compared with direct exports from China, turning Canada into a preferred staging ground for the global synthetic-drug trade.

A Canadian intelligence source told The Bureau that shipping facilities in Richmond — a predominantly Chinese-immigrant municipality within metropolitan Vancouver that hosts both port and airport infrastructure — have become key staging points where Asian organized-crime networks package synthetic narcotics and marijuana for shipment across the Asia-Pacific and into the United States, often concealing drugs within legally traded goods such as furniture and industrial materials.

Seafood production and shipping facilities have also been used by Triad networks in Richmond and Toronto to export methamphetamine from Canada, the source said.

The Vancouver-area Chinese networks have deep ties to Beijing’s foreign-interference and intelligence arm, the United Front Work Department, according to Canadian intelligence and a report by former U.S. intelligence official David Luna.

Across North America, sources confirmed to The Bureau, transnational crime networks are using commercial-trucking fleets to move narcotics across the northern border, exploiting the sheer volume of legitimate trade between Canada and the United States.

The issue has now reached Canada’s political arena. With President Donald Trump’s administration placing renewed pressure on Ottawa over cross-border fentanyl trafficking, Parliament is debating legislation to strengthen export controls — including greater powers to inspect postal shipments and tighten border-inspection regimes.

Some North American media outlets have criticized Washington’s stance as unfairly portraying Canada as a source country for fentanyl. Yet within law-enforcement circles, the concern is real: transnational synthetic-narcotics syndicates originating in China — and operating through Latin American cartel networks — have exploited Canada’s porous ports and liberal trade systems for years.

What began with mail-order protein powder, visa fraud, and exploitation of Canada’s Non-Resident Import system — as New Zealand’s case against Hong Kong national Chi Pang Li demonstrated — has evolved into multi-tonne, containerized narcotics traffic: evidence that Canada’s Pacific gateways have become critical arteries in the global synthetic-drug economy, connecting China’s chemical suppliers, cartel logistics networks, and Oceania’s growing demand.

Chris Cuomo has an uncomfortable moment on-air as he sets Eric Trump OFF into a rage over his comments about Trump going after his political opponents.

As VigilantFox posted on X, this did not sit well with Eric, who blew up on Cuomo for nearly 3 minutes straight.

CUOMO: “Do you think that it is fair to say it looks like the administration is going after its political opponents now and doing exactly what you say you oppose?”

TRUMP: “What, Comey?… It certainly seemed like he lied to me. I’m also wondering what an FBI director is doing taking memos from the FBI and leaking them to The New York Times.”

That’s when Trump got personal, accusing Cuomo of playing coy even though his own family had also faced political lawfare.

Cuomo pushed back, insisting he wasn’t being coy… before accusing the Trump administration of going “right after Biden.”

Eric Trump then rattled off a series of examples to prove that his father is the victim, not the aggressor, in what can only be described as a mic-drop moment:

“Did we raid Biden’s home?”

“Did we try and bankrupt Biden?”

“Did we weaponize every AG and DA against Biden?”

“Did we do that against Hunter Biden, who had a laptop from hell, pictures of cocaine, illicit drug use, prostitution?”

“Did we make up a dirty dossier about Biden?”

“Did they try and destroy Biden’s marriage?”

“Did we make up stories that Biden had secret servers in the basement of his home communicating with the Kremlin in Russia?”

“Did we strip Biden off the ballot of multiple states?”

“Did we take Biden off of Twitter and Instagram and Facebook and try and silence his voice so he couldn’t communicate?”

“Did we put Biden in a courtroom every single day, 91 felony counts that have all been overturned for my father now for nonsense, to try and keep him off of a campaign trail and to try and destroy his life. “

“DID WE DO ANY OF THAT?”

Watch the full tirade below:

Chris Cuomo has an uncomfortable moment on-air as he sets Eric Trump OFF into a rage over his comments about Trump going after his political opponents.

This did not sit well with Eric, who blew up on Cuomo for nearly 3 minutes straight.

CUOMO: “Do you think that it is fair to… pic.twitter.com/aemstMOxHN

— Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) October 8, 2025

h/t @VigilantFox

*  *  *

Authored by Rachel Ann T. Melegrito via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The body clears medicines within hours to weeks. However, a recent study suggests that drugs you took years ago may continue to affect your gut—and the more frequently and the longer they’re used, the greater their effect.

Nearly nine out of 10 commonly used medications leave permanent changes in gut bacteria – including drugs never before linked to digestive effects, according to the study.

This holds true not only for antibiotics but also for drugs used to manage high blood pressure, anxiety, and stomach hyperacidity.

“We may be underestimating the impact of common medications on gut health,” Kara Siedman, nutritionist and director of partnerships with resbiotic Nutrition, who wasn’t involved in the research, told The Epoch Times.

Your Gut Remembers

The findings extend far beyond antibiotics, which doctors already know disrupt gut bacteria. The study showed that even medications targeting human cells—including antidepressants, beta-blockers, acid reflux medicines such as omeprazole, benzodiazepines, and metformin—reshaped the gut microbial composition.

“We often think of medications as acting only on human cells, but they also interact with the gut ecosystem—the microbes, the intestinal barrier, and the immune system,” said Siedman.

The study found that many drugs left lasting effects on the gut, still visible more than three years after people stopped taking them. To test whether the drugs themselves were responsible, the researchers tracked a smaller subgroup over time. In this group, starting a drug caused predictable gut shifts, and stopping it often reversed them, supporting a causal link.

Findings showed that common drugs had similar effects to antibiotics. Benzodiazepines, commonly prescribed for anxiety, changed the gut as much as certain broad-spectrum antibiotics by reducing microbial diversity. Antidepressants also left patterns similar to those seen with antibiotics.

Gut Microbes Affected

A common bacterial type that increases with drug exposure, such as antidepressants and beta-blockers, is the Clostridium family. Some of these bacterial species are linked to rare cases of infections in humans.

Benzodiazepines are linked to increases in Dorea formicigenerans and Ruminococcus torques. Dorea formicigenerans are linked with obesity and metabolic syndrome in some human studies, though it can also produce beneficial metabolites. Ruminococcus torques is a bacterium that breaks down the mucus in the gut lining and is linked to gut conditions such as Crohn’s disease, irritable bowel syndrome, and metabolic disorders when present in abundance.

Drugs used for the same condition didn’t always affect the gut in the same way. For instance, within benzodiazepines, alprazolam (Xanax) led to a greater loss of gut microbial diversity than diazepam (Valium).

Proton pump inhibitors are linked to increased levels of oral bacteria such as Streptococcus parasanguinis and Veillonella parvula, both linked to periodontal disease and dental cavities.

Perhaps most striking was the cumulative nature of these changes. People with a history of antibiotic use never fully regained the same gut diversity as those who had never taken them, regardless of how long ago their last course was prescribed.

Past use added up: higher doses and longer durations left stronger, longer-lasting shifts in the microbiome. This additive pattern was seen with benzodiazepines, steroids, and beta-blockers.

How Drugs Affect the Gut Microbiome

There are several mechanisms by which medications might affect gut bacteria.

Drugs can slow or stop the growth of some gut bacteria while letting others thrive, shifting the microbiome’s balance. Some directly kill or suppress beneficial microbes, while others alter stomach acid, influence immune responses, or weaken the gut lining.

Antidepressants can disrupt how gut bacteria make and use energy, sometimes killing them directly. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs can irritate the gut lining, making it leakier and more inflamed, which changes which microbes can thrive.

Beneficial microbes make short-chain fatty acids that help calm inflammation. Elimination of these microbes can lead to gut inflammation and breakdown of the gut barrier as short-chain fatty acid levels drop.

Gut inflammation and breakdown of the gut barrier can contribute to metabolic problems such as fatty liver, insulin resistance, and possibly higher cardiovascular risk.

Microbes can bounce back after stopping a drug, especially if the gut was diverse to begin with or if the diet supports regrowth. Although some may vanish completely if wiped out and not replenished.

A 2024 review noted that recovery isn’t always complete. Even when diversity returns, the mix of bacteria can stay changed for months because some species never come back or are replaced.

Babies are highly vulnerable to gut microbial changes.

A 2022 study found that infants who were given proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) for more than 400 days had a less diverse, less balanced gut microbiome—and these changes persisted even after one month of stopping the medication. The researchers concluded that longer PPI use may disrupt the microbiome more than shorter courses.

Early-life exposure to antibiotics is also linked to increased risks of metabolic and atopic disorders, as well as higher risks of allergies, asthma, and metabolic diseases later in life.

Recovery Is Personal

While drugs affect the gut in predictable ways, the extent varies widely.

“Diet is the strongest driver of microbiome health and resilience. What we eat shapes microbial diversity, fiber fermentation, and bile acid production, all of which interact with drugs,” Siedman said.

A high-fiber diet helps restore balance after antibiotic use, while a low-fiber diet can weaken the gut barrier and fuel inflammation, slowing microbiome recovery. Gut inflammation can also change how quickly drugs are absorbed, and shifts in bile acids can alter how fat-soluble drugs are processed.

A person’s baseline microbiome composition is another key factor. “Two people can take the same medication and see very different microbiome shifts and recovery times depending on how diverse or robust their gut community was to begin with,” Siedman added.

How to Protect Your Gut

For patients who require ongoing medication, Siedman suggested practical ways to build resilience and support the gut ecosystem:

• Focus on Fiber Diversity: Eat a variety of whole grains, legumes, fruits, and vegetables to promote microbial diversity and support recovery.
• Add Polyphenol-Rich Foods: Eat berries, drink green tea, and include cocoa to help feed beneficial bacteria and reduce inflammation.
• Include Fermented Foods: Eat yogurt, drink kefir, and include sauerkraut and kimchi in your diet to add live microbes and compounds that nurture a healthy gut ecosystem.
• Take Targeted Supplements: Use certain probiotics to support microbial balance. Add prebiotics (fiber that feeds good bacteria) and postbiotics (beneficial compounds produced by microbes) to strengthen the gut barrier and modulate inflammation.

*  *  *

The Single-Family Rental (SFR) space has become the de facto middle-class housing market across America. With elevated 30-year mortgage rates and high home prices, affordability has collapsed, sidelining multiple generations of Americans from homeownership.

For expanded visibility into the SFR market, as well as homeownership affordability, demand fundamentals, supply dynamics, rental growth expectations, and the transaction environment, Goldman analysts hosted a private webinar on Tuesday with executives from several of the largest owners of single-family homes in the U.S, including David Todd (Managing Director in Brookfield’s Real Estate group as well as CEO of Maymont Homes, Brookfield’s SFR business), Chris Avallone (Amherst’s CFO & Head of Merchant Banking), and Dave Feldman (Co-President of Progress Residential). 

One of the key takeaways from the webinar is that the SFR market remains resilient, driven by high homeownership costs that continue to fuel strong rental demand, particularly in the Midwest and interior Southeast, while softer conditions persist in Florida, Texas, and Phoenix. 

The executives told Goldman that tenant credit quality and occupancy remain high, at nearly 96%, with average lease terms around three years. They said rent growth is moderating, as renewal spreads average 3% to 4% and new leases soften slightly, though smaller, more affordable homes are seeing renewed demand.

Here are the top takeaways from the webinar, which were presented in bullet-point format to clients by a team of analysts led by Julien Blouin:

Demand: Still Healthy but More Market Dispersion

• Demand: remains solid given elevated homeownership costs, which continues to benefit top and bottom of demand funnel for SFR.

• Regional performance: relative strength in the Midwest and interior Southeast markets; market softness exists in parts of Florida, Texas, and especially Phoenix.

• Quality of demand: SFR tenant credit and income profiles remain very strong, high quality applications, portfolio occupancy near 96%, with subdued levels of turnover.

• Wage growth is now outpacing home-price appreciation while mortgage rates should ease somewhat, modestly improving homeownership affordability — but not enough to materially convert renters to buyers.

• SFR continues to represent by far the most affordable way to access a home for families priced out of ownership.

Rent Trends & Leasing Dynamics: Softer New Leases But Renewals Holding up for now

• Our panelists characterized 1H25 as normal, but with signs of moderation in operating trends in 2H25 (to differing extents).

• Blends remain healthy mostly underpinned by renewals (~75% retention).

• New leases softer in recent months, slightly positive as of September.

• Renewal spreads: averaging 3–4%, consistent with low/mid-single-digit total revenue growth outlook for 2026.

• Length of stay: >3 years on average; tenants less price-sensitive due to frictional move costs. Infill vs. outer-ring: infill portfolios (mature neighborhoods) show greater resilience and lower rent volatility. Outer-rings proving more vulnerable to supply impacts.

• Smaller homes at lower rents rebounding the most in terms of demand, reversing prior preference for large 4–5BR homes.

• Stronger markets: Midwest, inland parts of Southeast.

• Weaker markets: Florida coast, Phoenix, Dallas.

Supply Environment: Managing Through BTR & Shadow Inventory

• Favorable demand–supply imbalance still exists, but incremental supply (BTR and shadow) is giving renters more choice, softening new-lease pricing.

• BTR pipeline: skepticism around execution and funding continuity; institutional capital flows choppier — more limited near-term threat.

• Builder tapes: some for-sale pivoting to rental, but selective participation due to absorption dynamics.

The full note is available in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro Subs and includes additional commentary on the capital markets and transaction environment within the SFR space.

The government shutdown has entered its eighth day, with Republicans and Democrats still at an impasse over a resolution. Earlier this week, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that the shutdown could cost the U.S. economy $15 billion per week. If it drags on for several more weeks, the economic disruption could become far more widespread.

Before consumers make decisions, their sentiment is usually affected. To gauge the current sentiment impact of the shutdown, real estate company Redfin conducted a survey last Friday – just several days into the shutdown – that found 17% of respondents are delaying major purchases, such as a home or vehicle, because of the political turmoil in Washington, D.C.

Roughly one in six (17%) Americans are delaying a major purchase like a home or car because of the federal government shutdown, according to a new Redfin survey. Another 7% are canceling plans for a major purchase altogether. The majority of Americans (65%) said the government shutdown has no impact on their purchasing plans.

This is according to a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos on October 3, 2025. The nationally representative survey was fielded to 1,005 U.S. residents. The combined results have a credibility interval of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The report continued: 

Some people are canceling or delaying big purchases because they’re directly impacted by the government shutdown; i.e. they’re a federal government employee or contractor who is not currently getting paid, and they may be worried about getting laid off. But most Americans aren’t in that position. People whose incomes aren’t directly dependent on the federal government’s budget may be rethinking a major purchase because the shutdown is one more in a long line of events making Americans feel unstable about their finances.

Adding to the economic gloom of the shutdown, an Axios report on Tuesday, citing a draft White House memo, said the 750,000 furloughed federal employees aren’t guaranteed compensation for their forced time off. 

Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather noted:

“A government shutdown doesn’t just stop paychecks for some federal employees–it shakes the financial confidence of Americans. People across the country are taking in the news and thinking, ‘we’ve faced inflation, tariffs, job losses, a volatile stock market, and now a government shutdown–what’s next?’ It’s understandable that some people are reconsidering buying a home or a car when the economy feels uncertain.”

Redfin data was not broken down by geographical location, which would have been helpful given that 15.12% of all federal civilian employees, according to OPM, are located in the D.C.–MD–VA–WV metro area.

Update(1707ET): In an unusual moment, during a White House round-table on Antifa, Secretary of State Marco Rubio interrupted things to inform President Trump of something quite urgent. Whether a deal is really imminent or not, it still made for good theater, at the very least. Trump soon after this moment left the meeting, announcing “I have to go now to try to solve Middle East problems.”

🚨 BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just handed President Trump a note regarding a MAJOR foreign policy development

“I’ve been given a note by the secretary of state saying we are VERY close to a deal in the Middle East! They will need me pretty quickly, so I can take a… pic.twitter.com/11VMx6fAIb

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2025

Not long before that interruption, he had speculated that if the Egypt-hosted negotiations achieved a deal, he would likely travel to the Middle East. He even named Gaza as a potential destination, but then said it would most likely be Egypt.

“Peace for the Middle East, that’s a beautiful phrase, and we hope it’s going to come true, but it’s very close, and they’re doing very well,” Trump told reporters.

Does this mean he’s getting ready for a major announcement? There have been ‘false starts’ on Gaza peace before (many times, actually)… so will this be the one to stick?

* * *

Axios last week reported that President Trump recently told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop being so “f*cking negative” and “take the win” after Hamas voiced its initial agreement to free the 48 remaining hostages (both dead and alive) as part of the US 20-point peace plan for Gaza.

However, in more recent remarks Trump has denied ever saying this, or clashing with the Israeli leader on the pending agreement. “No, it’s not true. He’s been very positive on the deal,” Trump said of Netanyahu.

Asked specifically whether he has any red lines for Hamas in new round of negotiations that kicked off Monday in Egypt, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he does: “If certain things aren’t met, we’re not going to do it,” he said.

Commenting on the potential for private vs. public friction further, Israeli media concludes the following:

Trump at times has avoided criticizing Netanyahu in public, even as reports have mounted about his private frustration with the Israeli premier, including during a tense phone call last week in which the Axios news site reported the US president responded angrily when Netanyahu said Hamas’s ambivalent response was “nothing to celebrate.”

US envoy Steve Witkoff is in Egypt joining the talks Wednesday, as is Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, and Erdogan too has sent Turkish officials, which may amount to too many cooks in the kitchen. The Turkish delegation is led by spy chief Ibrahim Kalin. 

Top Hamas leader Taher al-Nunu has offered a generally positive assessment of where thing stand so far. “The mediators are making great efforts to remove any obstacles to the implementation of the ceasefire, and a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties,” he said.

The two warring sides have exchanges lists of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners to be released in the major swap. But even if this is agreed to, the question of ending the war, and a future Gaza where Hamas is disarmed, remains a big open one.

The Egyptians and Qataris have signaled from the start that there isn’t enough in the plan for Hamas. People need to step back and recognize that on the core issues, the sides are as apart as they have ever been regardless of Pres Trump’s pressure. https://t.co/GkJgkYo9s0

— Steven A. Cook (@stevenacook) October 7, 2025

In Tuesday comments in the Oval Office, Trump said “So the primary guarantee is, once this deal happens, if it does happen — look, they’re in negotiations right now.”

“We are going to do everything possible. We have a lot of power, and we’re going to do everything possible to make sure everybody adheres to the deal,” he added. However, it’s notable that Trump stopped short of explicitly vowing that Israel would be barred from resuming military operations. For now, media reports say “progress” is being made in 

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Nearly 80 percent of Americans favor the deportation of immigrants who are in the United States illegally and have committed crimes, and a clear majority favor deporting all immigrants who are here illegally, according to a new poll.

President Trump’s policy of deporting criminal illegal aliens is his second most popular policy according to the Harvard Caps/Harris poll, just under lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low income patients.

The survey was conducted online within the United States on October 1-2, amid loud and often violent left-wing protests outside of ICE facilities in cities like Portland and Chicago.

The vast majority of respondents—78 percent—said they favored “deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes.”

Even among Democrats, 69 percent said they favored the policy, while 77 percent of independents and  87 percent of Republicans do.

“Deporting all immigrants who are here illegally” garnered 56 percent support among all respondents.

The majority of Republicans and Independents favor the policy by 76 percent and 54 percent respectively, while only 36 percent of Democrats do.

“President Trump’s efforts to Make America Safe Again are very popular!” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt commented on X, Tuesday, in response to the poll.

The surprising results come as Democrat politicians in blue cities and states continue to resist the president’s deportation efforts, with far-left Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson on Monday signing an executive order designating “ICE-Free Zones,” and governors JB Pritsker  and Gavin Newsom ) suing the Trump administration to block National Guard deployments in Illinois and California.

Update (1540ET):

Ford shares fell slightly in late trading after Reuters reported that Ford Motor will pause production next week at its Dearborn, Michigan, auto plant, which builds the F-150 Lightning electric pickup. The shutdown is linked to a September 16 fire at Novelis’s aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, a major supplier of sheet aluminum used to make the truck’s body.

As detailed in our previous report below, the blaze severely damaged Novelis’s hot mill, disrupting sheet aluminum production that won’t come back online until early 2026. 

Reuters said details about Ford’s planned shutdown of the EV truck plant came from union official Nick Kottalis, who heads the Dearborn Truck and REVC operations. He confirmed the stoppage planned for next week. 

Earlier, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally wrote in a note to clients, “We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well,” adding, the disruption at the Dearborn plant will generate a $500 million to $1 billion hit to Frod’s EBIT. 

Shares of Ford have slumped more than 8% since Bloomberg reported on Tuesday how Novelis’s aluminum plant disruption will likely affect Ford.

*  *  * 

A devastating fire at a major aluminum plant in New York in mid-September is set to roil the U.S. auto industry and could even disrupt production of Ford Motor’s F-150 pickup trucks, according to a new Wall Street Journal report. 

The Novelis aluminum mill in Oswego, New York, suffered a fire on September 16 that destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. 

The plant supplies about 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America’s auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill’s largest customer and primarily uses the lightweight industrial metal for its top-selling and most profitable model, the F-150 pickup.

Shares of Ford in New York were hammered on the news by midday, down 7%, marking the worst intraday decline in eight months. 

WSJ cited industry analysts who warned the impacts of the mill’s closure are widespread: 

Novelis produces more than 350,000 metric tons of sheet aluminum annually for the automotive industry, according to industry analysts. Around a dozen automakers get aluminum from Novelis, including Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Jeep maker Stellantis, according to a regulatory filing.

Kaustubh Chandorkar, an aluminum-industry analyst, said this incident “represents a serious question for the production of F-150 because that’s the aluminum that comes out of Oswego.” He pointed out that the automaker switched the F-150’s exterior skin from steel to aluminum about a decade ago. 

“Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions,” a Ford spokesperson stated.

Novelis, owned by India’s Hindalco Industries, is preparing to mitigate production losses in the U.S. by sourcing the metal from overseas plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea. However, a 50% tariff on imported aluminum complicates things.

This incident could trigger one of the most severe supply shocks for North American automakers in years. All eyes are on Ford’s upcoming earnings call for more details on the situation, as well as on its Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant, for any signs of slowing production that would only signal snarled supply chains. 

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s odd to consider, but a recession could flip our bullish outlook on bonds to bearish. It’s unusual because typically, inflation drops during a recession, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices. While we believe that if an economic downturn or recession occurs soon, the immediate effect on bonds will be favorable. However, the bigger question in our mind is how steep a decline in yields we might see.

While many factors will ultimately influence the answer, the primary constraint on a decline in yield may be the government’s response to a recession. In 2020 and again in 2021, the government issued checks to the public to stimulate economic growth. These checks, along with other large-scale fiscal spending and supply chain shutdowns, led to the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. Although it’s unlikely that the next recession will face supply constraints like those during the pandemic, we worry that another round of fiscal stimulus, including direct payments to the public, could drive inflation higher. Moreover, grossly negligent fiscal deficits could further spur the bond vigilantes to pressure yields higher.

Some of our readers, upon hearing this concern, have asked us how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can protect them in such a situation. To answer their question, we review recent history and compare an actual TIPS to a non-inflation-adjusted Treasury bond (nominal bond) before, during, and after the 2022 inflation surge. Additionally, we provide an overview of TIPS to help you better understand their mechanics and when they might offer better returns than nominal bonds.

TIPS vs Nominal Bonds 2020-2025

In our opinion, a great way to help readers become better acquainted with TIPS is to illustrate how TIPS have performed over the last five years in comparison to a typical fixed-coupon non-TIP US Treasury bond (nominal bond).

To accomplish this, we selected a TIPS and a nominal bond with nearly identical maturities and issuance dates. Both bonds, detailed below, mature in October 2025, providing a complete performance picture.

TIP 

• Cusip: 91282CAQ4

• Coupon: 0.125%

• Issuance Yield:  -1.32%

• Issue Date:  10/15/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/15/2025

Nominal Bond

• Cusip: 91282CAT8

• Coupon: 0.250%

• Issuance Yield:  0.33%

• Issue Date:  11/2/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/31/2025

At issuance, the TIPS yield was -1.32% while the nominal bond yield was +0.33%. Therefore, at that time, the implied inflation rate, otherwise known as the breakeven inflation rate, for the next five years was 1.65%. Had the actual inflation rate over the next five years been 1.65%, the total return on the TIP would have been identical to that of the nominal bond at +0.33%. This calculation is based on the yield to maturity of -1.32% plus the inflation benefit of +1.65%.

It turns out inflation was almost 3% more than what the market expected. CPI, the index used for TIPS calculations, has averaged 4.43% since the bonds were issued. Thus, the yield on our TIP bond was not the -1.32% yield to maturity at issuance, nor the expected 0.33%, but 3.11% (-1.32% + 4.43%).  Investors who bet that actual inflation would exceed inflation expectations were rewarded for choosing TIPS over nominal bonds.

The graph and table below show the total returns of both bonds. Total return includes the coupon payments, the inflation factor, and the price changes from issuance to maturity.

TIPS Mechanics

TIPS are debt securities issued by the U.S. government. Like most U.S. Treasury securities, TIPS have a specified maturity date and coupon rate. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS changes in response to inflation. The so-called TIPS inflation factor is multiplied by the par value to determine the principal value. But, even if inflation is negative, the principal will never drop below the bond’s original par value (100).

The dollar amount of the coupon payment is not constant, unlike nominal bonds. For TIPS, it is the coupon rate times the inflation-adjusted principal value. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS varies with changes in the inflation rate. In our example above, the factor increased from 1.00 at issuance to 1.246 at maturity. As a result, the final coupon payment was 24.6% larger than the initial coupon payment.

Breakeven Inflation, Not Yield To Maturity

When comparing TIPS to other bonds, investors should focus less on the yield to maturity. Instead, the breakeven inflation rate is far more important.

For example, as we mentioned earlier, even though the initial yield to maturity was -1.32%, the yield at maturity for the TIPS ended up being +3.11%, not the -1.32% it was at issuance. The yield to maturity at issuance and at maturity for nominal bonds is always the same.

The breakeven rate is simply the yield difference between TIPS and nominal bonds with the same maturity date. If realized inflation over the life of a TIPS is less than the breakeven rate, the investor earns a lower return than if they had bought a nominal bond with the same maturity. Conversely, as we showed earlier, in our example, if inflation exceeds the breakeven rate, the TIPS investor earns a higher return than a nominal Treasury bond.

Current Environment

Currently, the yield on a five-year TIPS and a nominal Treasury bond is 1.15% and 3.65% respectively. Thus, the breakeven inflation rate is currently 2.50%.

For some market context, consider the following estimates of inflation for the next five years:

• University of Michigan Consumer Survey- 5 Year Inflation Expectations is currently 3.70%.

• The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations median inflation expectation is 2.90%.

• The Cleveland Fed projects 2.32%

• The Fed’s FOMC current long-range inflation projection is 2.00%.

As an investor choosing between a 5-year TIPS and a nominal bond, the key question to ask is whether the CPI will average more or less than 2.50%.

Keep in mind that the answer might change during a recession. Therefore, TIPS could appear much more appealing than nominal bonds for those who believe the government will boost inflation with heavy fiscal spending.

Summary

Markets have a long history of assuming the future will be just like the past. Until 2020, the market assumed inflation would be benign. Over the last five years, that assumption has fallen apart, as we illustrated in our example. However, looking forward, we must assess whether the recent high-inflationary period will persist, or will the sub-2% inflation of the pre-pandemic era reassert itself?

In relation to this article, the answer to the question above may depend on whether or not a round or multiple rounds of checks are written to the populace to combat a recession.  

President Donald Trump is hosting a White House roundtable with independent journalists who have experienced Antifa’s violence firsthand. In addition to journalists and influencers, Seamus Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer’s Government Accountability Institute, will also be at the table to discuss dark-money-funded NGO networks that are fueling chaos across America.

The roundtable discussion is scheduled for 3 p.m. EST and comes amid renewed Antifa attacks on ICE facilities in Portland and other crime-ridden sanctuary cities. Over the past decade, Democrats and left-wing groups have normalized assassination culture by labeling Trump and his supporters as “fascists” and “Nazis.” That dangerous rhetoric has fueled an alarming wave of nihilistic accelerationism among extremist “woke warriors,” culminating in horrific incidents such as the transgender mass shooter at a Catholic Church in Minneapolis and the political assassination of Charlie Kirk last month. The Kirk assassination placed radical leftist groups at the center of discussion for White House officials.     

“For too long, Antifa has ravaged great American cities while ineffectual Democrat leaders turn a blind eye — and most in the media have gone right along with them,” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Fox News Digital Wednesday, adding, “Some reporters have been brave enough to blaze their own trail and report the facts rather than go along with the Fake News Groupthink.”

Fox News Digital reports that the roundtable will feature Trump delivering remarks before hearing from Cabinet members and independent journalists. These cabinet members and administration officials include Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, FBI Director Kash Patel, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. 

Independent journalists slated to join the roundtable include Nick Sortor, Cam Higby, Jonathan Choe, Andy Ngo, Katie Daviscourt, James Klug, Savanah Hernandez, Nick Shirley, Brandi Kruse, and Julio Rojas. 

Jonathan Choe wrote on X, 

I’m heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what’s being called a “Roundtable on Antifa.” We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert network. What a time to be alive. 

HAPPENING NOW: I’m heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what’s being called a “Roundtable on Antifa.”
We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert… pic.twitter.com/mUbL57OecT

— Jonathan Choe (@choeshow) October 8, 2025

Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer, is expected to share new details about dark-money–funded NGOs backed by foundations such as the Rockefeller Foundation, the Arabella Network, Tides, and Soros, along with foreign-linked funders like Neville Roy Singham, who have fueled unrest across the country. 

Bruner’s briefing to Trump will build on the New York Times’ report, citing a Capital Research Center report, that “Soros’ Open Society gave $80 million to pro-terror groups“…

Here’s a preview…

🚨The beginning of the end for Chaos, Inc.?
The Government Accountability Institute has mapped how non-governmental funding networks intersect with protest and activist movements across the US. The chaos and unrest spreading across this country, especially the ongoing anti-ICE… pic.twitter.com/IQlYwAKWuW

— Seamus Bruner (@seamusbruner) October 8, 2025

This will be music to Stephen Miller’s ears, as the White House official recently declared war on the radical left, vowing to “disrupt” and “dismantle” the groups sowing chaos nationwide.

Watch Live:

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