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Momentum From Trump-Putin Talks In Alaska Has Run Out: Kremlin

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Momentum From Trump-Putin Talks In Alaska Has Run Out: Kremlin

The Kremlin has expressed its view Wednesday that the positive momentum created in the wake of the August 15 meeting in Alaska between Presidents Trump and Putin has waned and come to an end.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has stated bluntly that this momentum has now run out. His fresh words indicated Moscow’s point of view that positive advancement toward peace and good-will was “largely exhausted”.

According to Ryabkov, the “strong drive” to reach a resolution to the Ukraine conflict was undermined by Russia’s adversaries especially in Europe, which are currently “pushing for a war to the last Ukrainian.“

The talks in Anchorage did not produce a major breakthrough; however, both leaders at the time described them as productive with the White House saying the meeting offered “a glimmer of hope for lasting peace.”

Ryabkov Wednesday continued by saying “This is the result of the destructive actions primarily by Europeans, which we speak about openly and directly.”

Newsweek draws the following observation, calling this a significant blow for Trump:

The remarks are a blow for Trump, who has tried mostly through diplomatic means to bring an end to Russia’s ongoing invasion. He has directly engaged with Putin, despite concerns from Kyiv and NATO allies about perceptions that Moscow was being rewarded for its aggression after its years-long isolation by the West. Most of Europe wants to take a hard line on Russia.

But the Kremlin has also put some blame on Washington as well, particularly in the wake of the White House indicating it’s actually mulling the approval of long-range Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine.

Trump has said he has “sort of made a decision” while decrying escalation – seen by many as an indicator that he’s leaning against sending the missiles.

Ryabkov said of this matter in his comments that such a move “would mark a significant, one might even say qualitative, change in the situation,” but still asserted that this wouldn’t impact Russia’s “determination to achieve our stated goals.”

“I hope that those who are pushing Washington toward such decisions fully understand the gravity and depth of the potential consequences,” the deputy foreign minister told state media. “We, of course, call on the US leadership and the American military to approach this situation soberly, sensibly and responsibly.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 10:50

The TDS Is Strong With This One…

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The TDS Is Strong With This One…

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a recent segment on his “Uncensored” show, host Piers Morgan engaged in a heated debate with Democrat Jolanda Jones, who laughably attempted to argue that Donald Trump’s 2024 victory lacked a mandate.

The exchange, which has since gone viral, serves as a stark illustration of how the left, blinded by Trump Derangement Syndrome, struggle to maintain coherent arguments against the President, in the face of his undeniable successes.

Morgan began the discussion by challenging Jones’s agreement with former Vice President Kamala Harris’s assertion that Trump’s win was not a mandate. “Kamala Harris is completely and utterly delusional,” Morgan declared, referencing Harris’s claim that the 2024 contest was “the closest presidential race in the 21st century.”

Jones, undeterred, responds, “I respectfully disagree,” setting the stage for a clash of perspectives that would only highlight the fragility of her position.

Morgan, armed only with simple facts, countered, “Okay, but let me explain why. Just to remind everybody, Donald Trump won back the White House. He won the popular vote and the Electoral College. The Republicans won control of the Senate and the House. It was a clean sweep!”

His words were a direct challenge to the narrative Jones was attempting to uphold, one that seemed increasingly untenable as the conversation progressed.

Jones, however, clung to her initial stance, stating, “It was a very close election… And there was not a mandate,” seemingly ignoring the breadth of Trump’s victory. Morgan, visibly perplexed, pressed further, asking, “So hang on. What is a mandate then, to you?” The question exposes the core of Jones’s argument, or lack thereof, as she struggles to define her terms.

“To me, a mandate is when you win by a lot. By a lot. There’s a whole bunch of votes separating you. There were not,” Jones asserts, revealing a personal interpretation of the term that diverges significantly from political reality.

Morgan is quick to dismantle this notion, retorting, “But that’s not what a mandate is in a democratic society… that is fake news.” He continues, “A mandate in politics is whether you win or lose an election. And Donald Trump won emphatically… There was nothing left to win. It was literally the widest mandate imaginable,” leaving Jones’s feeble assertions in tatters.

Jones then pivots, grasping at straws in her desperation to discredit Trump’s victory. “And what I will say to you is there was a lot of voter suppression, including here in Texas. The Russians interfered in the election,” she claims, a sudden shift underscoring the complete absence lack any anchor to her position.

Her rapid transition from claiming the election was “very close” to alleging foreign interference and domestic suppression perfectly encapsulates the flailing and floundering characteristics of those who, driven by a pure hatred of Trump, struggle to find solid ground.

This exchange is a clear example of how leftists, devoid of based arguments and mentally crippled by debilitating brain rot, resort to increasingly desperate tactics to attack Trump, refusing to acknowledge reality.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 10:20

Comey Arraigned, Pleads ‘Not Guilty’

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Comey Arraigned, Pleads ‘Not Guilty’

Update (1010ET): As expected, Comey sauntered into court in Alexandria, Virginia today and pleaded ‘not guilty‘ at this morning’s arraignment. 

Seems he was even allowed to enter through the back door, avoiding cameras. 

Developing…

*  *  *

Former FBI Director James Comey – who’s been charged with lying and obstruction of justice, is set to be arraigned today in Alexandria, Virginia – just outside Washington.

Comey – who was also a key player in the Russiagate hoax, spying on Trump’s campaign, downplaying Hillary’s emails, etc. – has not been arrested since his indictment by a grand jury, and will apparently just ‘show up’ for his arraignment. 

The two counts are:

  • False Statement – under 18 U.S.C. § 1001, the charge alleges that in his 2020 Senate testimony he falsely claimed he had not authorized someone at the FBI to act as an anonymous source to the news media.
  • Obstruction of a Congressional Proceeding – under 18 U.S.C. § 1505, for allegedly making misleading statements that impeded the Senate Judiciary Committee’s investigation.

Not to worry, Democrats – the FBI promises not to wrinkle Comey’s suit with a perp walk – the kind Comey subjected multiple members of Trump’s first team to… According to Fox News, Director Kash Patel and Deputy AG Todd Blanche insist that reports of a camera-ready Comey arrest are nothing more than a distraction.

“Mr. Comey has been directed to appear, and I expect that he will. But the noise from MSNBC and from retired agents or unnamed anonymous sources about perp walks is just that,” Blanche told the outlet , adding “It’s just noise.” 

Wouldn’t Roger Stone or Peter Navarro have appeared too when Comey’s FBI was in charge?

Also kinda interesting… the judge in the case is U.S. District Judge Michael Nachmanoff, whose father, Arnold Nachmanoff, was pals with former President Barack Obama’s father, wrote Kissinger about the Cubans, was an NSC staffer, and worked in Naval intelligence. And now his son will oversee James Comey’s trial.

Meanwhile, Patel told staff at the Chicago field office that media reports about a Comey perp walk were a “distraction” from the FBI’s work. 

“The mainstream media wants to take the eye off the ball and create theater,” Patel said, after having not raided Comey’s house to rifle through his shit. 

Patel and Blanche‘s statements come after Reuters, MSNBC and other outlets reported in recent days that an FBI official was canned for refusing to take part in a Comey perp walk. 

Muted Victory Lap for Trump 

When Comey was indicted last month, President Trump celebrated what he called “Justice in America!” on social media, calling Comey “one of the worst human beings this Country has ever been exposed to” and declaring that he was “finally being held responsible for his crimes.”

Comey – who weeks earlier joked about a Trump assassination – responded like a wounded dove.

In a self-produced Instagram video, the ex-G-man claimed his family had “known for years that there are costs to standing up to Donald Trump.” He vowed that he “won’t live on his knees” – a defiant posture that rang hollow to many who remember his years of leaks, contradictions, and political gamesmanship at the FBI.

Comey said his “heart is broken for the Department of Justice,” but insisted he welcomed the chance to clear his name at trial. For Trump, the stakes are high — an acquittal would hand the media another cudgel to accuse him of “weaponizing” the DOJ. But if Comey is convicted, it would be a stunning vindication for Trump. 

Bondi vs. Democrats

Attorney General Pam Bondi faced hostile questions Tuesday in a fiery Senate Judiciary hearing. Democrats accused her of acting as Trump’s “personal lawyer” after Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) flashed a photo of her dining with Trump others the night before Comey’s indictment.

She also pointed out Blumenthal’s stolen valor…

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) pressed further, asking if Trump’s September post urging Bondi to “seek Comey’s indictment” amounted to a directive. Bondi dismissed the insinuation, saying everyone already knew where Trump stood – and had for years.

Then she slammed Democrats for shutting down the government.

Are you not entertained? Also, where’s the list Pam?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 10:09

Homeland Security: Arrests At Southern Border Hit 55-Year Low

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Homeland Security: Arrests At Southern Border Hit 55-Year Low

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The 2025 fiscal year had the lowest number of arrests of illegal immigrants made on the U.S. southern border in 55 years, according to the Department of Homeland Security and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

“We have had the most secure border in American history, and our end-of-year numbers prove it,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in an Oct. 7 statement.

“We have shattered multiple records this year, and once again we have broken a new record.”

The United States’ 2025 fiscal year ran from Oct. 1, 2024, through Sept. 30, 2025. During that time, authorities made 237,565 arrests along the southern border with Mexico. That total represented an 84 percent drop from the previous year—which had more than 1.5 million illegal immigrants apprehensions—and the lowest number recorded since 1970, which had 201,780 arrests.

“The latest number includes nearly four months of the Biden administration,” the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in the statement.

”Arrests fell sharply after the Biden administration imposed severe asylum restrictions in June 2024.

“They plummeted more after the Trump administration virtually eliminated asylum access and dispatched thousands of military troops to the border.”

According to the department, 72 percent of the total arrests occurred during the first 111 days of the fiscal year, which took place in the final months of the Biden administration, totaling 172,026 of the 237,565 arrests.

The year ended with authorities averaging 279 arrests a day in the month of September. While that number was up from the 204 arrests per day recorded in August, it was still down considerably from the nearly 1,800 border arrests per day recorded in September 2024.

That number is also 95 percent lower than the daily average maintained by the Biden administration, which was 5,110 from February 2021 through December 2024.

The previous four fiscal years averaged 1.86 million arrests.

During the Biden administration, thousands of those arrested ended up being released into the United States, including 9,144 releases in September 2024.

DHS touted in its statement that September 2025 was the fifth consecutive month with zero releases by Border Patrol.

These low arrest numbers are being accompanied by increased deportation figures. Just before the fiscal year came to a close, DHS announced that more than 2 million illegal immigrants had been deported, or had self-deported, since President Donald Trump began his second term. As of Sept. 23, an estimated 1.6 million voluntarily self-deported using the CBP Home App, and more than 400,000 were removed.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 09:40

Democrat Claims Trump Crime Crackdown Is “The Very Same Thing” As The Rise Of Third Reich

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Democrat Claims Trump Crime Crackdown Is “The Very Same Thing” As The Rise Of Third Reich

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Democrat Illinois gov JB Pritzker has declared that America is currently witnessing what the early days of the Third Reich resembled.

“In the early days of the Nazi regime, they started slowly but surely taking away people’s rights,” Pritzker babbled during an interview.

“And what we’re seeing now is the very same thing,” he further declared.

Pritzker’s remarks come just one week after he said it was dangerous for the Trump Administration to label Democrats as “fascists” 

Yet now he is not just comparing the Administration to Nazis, but declaring they are “the same thing.”

When Trump began federal interventions in Chicago, Pritzker doubled down, likening the president’s vow to deploy the National Guard to the Nazis “tearing down a constitutional republic,” conveniently ignoring Chicago’s 2024 homicide tally, which topped 600 by year’s end.

As we earlier highlighted, Pritzker is also blaring all over leftist media that Trump is militarising cities in order to use troops to steal the midterm elections next year.

Trump’s crime crackdown continues undeterred with 300 troops now deployed to Chicago to protect federal officers and assets amid protests against immigration enforcement operations, such as those near ICE facilities. 

In the face of brazen attacks on law enforcement, Pritzker has called the deployment an “un-American” overreach and sued alongside the city to block it, citing potential violations of laws like the Posse Comitatus Act that limit military involvement in domestic law enforcement.

Trump has said that he may also consider invoking the Insurrection Act, a rarely used federal law that empowers the president to deploy U.S. military forces domestically to suppress insurrections, rebellions, or domestic violence when local authorities are unable or unwilling to maintain order. 

The Act bypasses typical restrictions on military use for civilian policing and has been invoked only about 30 times in U.S. history, most recently during the 1992 Los Angeles riots.

Trump has also multiple times in the past 24 hours called Democrats and their leftist foot soldiers “insurrectionists.” 

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 09:00

Futures Rise As Global Debasement Trade Sends Gold Over $4000

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Futures Rise As Global Debasement Trade Sends Gold Over $4000

Futures are higher again, reversing Tuesday’s modest Oracle-led decline, and are led by small caps despite additional multi billion tech investment headlines. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.1% higher, set for their 8th gain in the past 9 days, with Nasdaq 100 contacts +0.2% with Mag7, Semis, and AI-themed plays all rallying off the investment news. In premarket trading, AMD extended gains after an explosive rally following its multibillion-dollar AI deal with OpenAI. Tesla advanced after it unveiled a cheaper version of its top-selling electric vehicle. Cyclicals poised to outperform Defensive even as Ray Dalio warned that the AI-driven market rally “feels frothy.” Of course, it is all now just a debasement trade with everyone and their mother dumping fiat and buying hard currencies, sending gold above $4,000 an ounce for the first time, and silver above $49. The dollar gained for a third day against major peers and is now 2.5% off its 52-wk low as 96.00, while Treasury yields dipped. In commodities, Energy and Precious metals are the stand outs as gold breaks above $4k. The Administration said ~$13bn in farming aid may be rolled out soon. Today we get the FOMC minutes at 2pm; the Federal Budget Balance will likely be delayed due to the government shutdown. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.3%, Nvidia +0.6%, Amazon +0.4%, Microsoft +0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%, Alphabet -0.1%, Apple -0.1%).

  • Precious metals miners climb after spot gold rallied past $4,000 an ounce for the first time amid concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown.
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rises 9% after announcing a pact with Verizon to provide direct-to-cellular AST SpaceMobile service when needed for Verizon customers starting in 2026.
  • CervoMed (CRVO) soars 16% after announcing that its Phase 2b trial demonstrated neflamapimod’s potential as a treatment for dementia with Lewy bodies.
  • Confluent (CFLT) gains 17% as Reuters reports that the data-infrastructure company is exploring a sale after receiving acquisition interest.
  • Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) falls 3% after Equifax said its VantageScore 4.0 service will offer mortgage credit scores at $4.50 through the end of 2027.
  • Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) slips nearly 2% after it said it’s in communication with First Brands Group’s advisers to determine the impact of First Brands’ bankruptcy on Leucadia Asset Management’s Point Bonita Capital. Leucadia Asset Management is owned by Jefferies.
  • Joby Aviation (JOBY) is down 10% after offering $500 million in shares via Morgan Stanley.
  • Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) slips 2% following a downgrade to neutral at Goldman Sachs, which sees less certainty regarding the medical-equipment company’s outlook.
  • Penguin Solutions (PENG) shares drop 23% after the company’s FY26 sales guidance range fell short of the consensus of analyst estimates. The company, which helps enterprises to build out AI infrastructure, said the guidance range is wider than usual to “reflect a broader set of potential outcomes.”
  • QuantumScape (QS) rises 5% after the maker of lithium-metal batteries entered a joint-development agreement with Murata Manufacturing Co.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) rises 6% after the company said it signed a contract with iQPS to launch three more satellites for the Japanese compan

In corporate news, Salesforce told customers it won’t pay a ransom demand from a hacker who claimed to have stolen a large amount of client data and threatened to publish it. xAI is raising more financing than initially planned, tapping backers including Nvidia to lift its ongoing funding round to $20 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Concerns have been growing that $16 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from its April lows had gone too far. Tuesday’s drop came amid mounting chatter about lofty valuations around artificial intelligence, with some market participants seeing an echo of the excesses that led to the dot-com crash 25 years ago. On Tuesday, investors turned cautious after the Information reported that Oracle may post a disappointing profit margin for the latest quarter, spurring a selloff in tech shares.  Still, many investors fear missing out on further gains, with the upcoming earnings season set to provide clues on the rally’s sustainability.

“There are worrying signals on the AI rally, which reminds me of 1997 when I started my career,” said Gilles Guibout, head of European equities at Axa Investment Managers. “The bubble burst in 2000 but those managers who had refused to follow the rally, rightfully expecting it to go pop, lost a lot of money for their clients. There’s a real risk to get out of the AI trade too early; what you need to do is stay invested but with your finger on the exit button and stay diversified.”

And with nobody willing to sell first, equity volatility remains deeply subdued, despite a growing list of potential cracks beneath the surface. According to Bank of America, S&P 500 three-month realized vol sits near 8.5%, its lowest decile since 1990. 

Catching up to our discussion on the massive AI circle jerk, Bloomberg’s Big Take today highlights how a wave of deals involving Nvidia and OpenAI are escalating concerns that an increasingly complex and interconnected web of business transactions is artificially propping up the AI boom. Still, Goldman strategist Peter Oppenheimer said it’s too early to be worried about a bubble. The rally in tech has been accompanied by robust earnings growth, while previous bubbles were driven mainly by speculation. And Jamie Dimon said that JPMorgan’s investments in AI are paying off, with cost savings matching the $2 billion annual spend on developing the technology.

As noted last night, the global currency debasement trade pushed Gold above $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever, with silver rising above $49 for the first time since 2011 and on pace for a new record high.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark climbed 0.6%, on track for another record close, as the basic resources sector jumped more than 1%. The French CAC 40 outperformed most of its regional peers after the outgoing PM expressed optimism that an accord can be reached to allow the formation of a new government. Lloyds Banking Group Plc led banks higher after a favorable ruling on the cost of disputed car loans. European stocks were also buoyed by moves to resolve France’s budget impasse. The country’s CAC 40 equity index rose as much as 0.8% and bond yields fell. The European technology sub-index, however, underperformed. BMW AG slumped, dragging peers lower, after the German luxury-car maker cut its financial guidance on weak sales in China and tariff-related costs. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Umicore shares rise as much as 8%, to their highest since June 2024, after the company announced it will sell permanently tied-up gold inventories, strengthening its balance sheet
  • Marston shares advance as much as 11%, the most in a year, following a trading update from the UK pub company which prompts Peel Hunt to increase its pretax profit estimates
  • Addnode gains as much as 13% following an upgrade to buy from hold at Pareto Securities, with the Swedish IT group now deemed to be trading back at attractive levels
  • BMW shares decline as much as 7.4% after cutting its guidance for the full year due to weak volume growth in China and costs related to the implementation of tariffs
  • Aryzta shares fall as much as 7.9%, the most in three years, after the Swiss baker issued a profit warning and said it replaced CEO Michael Schai with immediate effect
  • Aurubis shares drop as much as 5.7%, retreating from Tuesday’s record high close, after the copper smelting company released an update ahead of its capital markets day
  • Aixtron shares fall as much as 8.9%, the most since April, as analysts at JPMorgan forecast that a slower recovery in the firm’s core markets will add near-term risk to estimates
  • Serica Energy shares fall as much as 14% after the company said an issue with the flare system on Dana Petroleum-operated Triton FPSO resulted in a temporary suspension of production from Sept. 30
  • Unite Group shares fall as much as 6.1%, to the lowest in more than five years, after Morgan Stanley called the latest trading update of the student accommodation provider disappointing

Meanwhile, the US / EU trade deal is being questioned by the EU as the US makes new demands, calling into question the Trump / Van Der Leyen agreement. 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, driven by losses in technology shares on fresh concerns over the justification for the artificial intelligence boom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much 0.8%, the most since Sept. 26, with TSMC, Alibaba and SoftBank among the biggest drags. Hong Kong led losses as the market reopened after a holiday, while Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia also saw declines. Vietnam’s benchmark briefly surged as much as 3% before paring much of the gain, after FTSE Russell upgraded it to emerging market status from frontier. Elsewhere, New Zealand’s key stock index extended gains after the central bank cut interest rates more aggressively than expected and said it’s open to further reductions. Traders also await a decision in Thailand, where the central bank is expected to deliver its fourth interest rate cut of the year.

In FX, the euro falls 0.3% amid a broad dollar rally. The kiwi is one of the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps.

In rates, Treasuries bull-flattened in the early US session with long-end yields richer by around 2.5bp on the day, following similar price action in European bonds. With US front-end yields little changed, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are flatter by 2bp-3bp; 10-year near 4.1% is 2bp lower on the day, with UK’s keeping pace and Germany’s outperforming after auctions in both markets. French bonds advanced during London morning after caretaker prime minister struck a note of optimism on the budget before starting a final day of talks to form a government, narrowing the 10-year French yield spread with Germany by 3 bps to around 83 bps. US session includes 10-year note auction and minutes of September FOMC meeting. 

In commodities, gold is up over $50, having crossed $4,000/oz for the first time earlier today. WTI crude futures rise 1% to $62.30 a barrel. 

The US economic calendar calendar, still subject to delays from the ongoing government shutdown, includes FOMC meetings minutes release at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:20am), Barr (9:30am, 5:45pm), Goolsbee (10am, 7:15pm) and Kashkari (3:15pm, 4:30pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
  • DAX +0.4%, CAC 40 +0.7%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.11%
  • VIX -0.3 points at 16.97
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1211.81
  • euro -0.4% at $1.1613
  • WTI crude +1.4% at $62.6/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump’s farm aid plan (which is expected to be $12-13B initially and potentially as large as $50B over time) is delayed by the shutdown. officials were said to have readied nearly USD 13bln from an internal USDA fund, although there is no final decision on how much will be used for farm aid, or when: Politico
  • American farmers are in “panic” mode as Chinese soybean buyers stay on the sidelines (“we’ll see the bottom drop out if we don’t get a deal with China soon”). WSJ
  • US Senate leaders were reportedly trying to lock in votes on Tuesday evening with a variety of options, including the noms bloc, privileged resolutions (maybe Canada tariff disapproval), and the duelling CRs again: Punchbowl.
  • More than 250,000 federal workers missed paychecks as the shutdown entered the second week, with 2 million more at risk. Meanwhile, bond traders are hedging against a wider range of Fed outcomes amid a data blackout. BBG
  • Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $20 billion, including $2 billion from Nvidia, to finance AI chips for its Colossus 2 project, people familiar said. The deal will be split between equity and debt, allowing xAI to rent Nvidia processors for five years. BBG
  • China saw a spike in travel over the Golden Week holiday, but consumer spending was fairly muted. FT
  • Japan’s likely next premier Sanae Takaichi is already facing criticism from her ruling party’s long-time coalition partner, a rift that could delay or, in an extreme scenario, jeopardize her premiership. RTRS
  • EU officials see new US trade demands as potentially threatening a recent deal and risking renewed conflict, people familiar said. Washington wants talks on the EU’s legislation, raising concerns over regulatory autonomy. BBG
  • Caretaker French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu struck a cautiously optimistic tone on Wednesday, saying a deal could potentially be reached on the country’s budget by year-end, making the risk of a snap election more remote. RTRS
  • Prolonged funding pressures in US money markets, just as bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve are dwindling, suggest the central bank may be getting closer to ending the unwinding of its massive portfolio of securities. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

  • EU sees new US trade demands hollowing out deal struck by US President Trump, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Earlier in the month, Trump admin reportedly sent the EU a fresh proposal for implementing “reciprocal, fair and balanced” trade.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with demand hampered following the negative handover from the US, where stocks snapped a 7-day win streak as small caps underperformed and with sentiment weighed on by AI-profitability concerns. ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in healthcare and the top-weighted financial industry were offset by underperformance in Tech and Consumer sectors. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and oscillated around the 48,000 level amid a weaker currency and soft wages data. Hang Seng retreated on return from the holiday closure with tech stocks heavily represented in the list of worst performers, while mainland participants were still away but are set to return from the National Day Golden Week celebrations tomorrow.

Top Asian News

  • RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 2.50% vs mixed views between a 25bps and 50bps cut, while the committee remains open to further reductions in the OCR as required for inflation to settle sustainably near the 2% target mid-point in the medium term. RBNZ said higher near-term inflation could prove to be more persistent and that with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to return to around the 2% target mid-point over the first half of 2026, but noted upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook. RBNZ Minutes revealed that the committee discussed the options of reducing the OCR by 25bps or by 50bps at the meeting, while it stated that the case for reducing the OCR by 50 basis points emphasised prolonged spare capacity and the associated downside risk to medium-term activity and inflation.
  • Oxford Economics has brought forward their timing of the next BoJ 25bps rate hike to December from next year and have added another 25bps hike in mid-2026.
  • Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is expected to depart from his position, according to local reports via Mainichi newspaper.

Top European News

  • French PM Lecornu to speak again at 19:00 BST
  • French PM Lecornu said will present his findings to President Macron later this evening; said France must get a budget by year-end; talks so far showing a willingness to get this budget through by year-end. Sees possibility of dissolution of parliament as becoming more remote.
  • French Socialist Leader Faure says the party cannot back the current budget plan, no guarantee that pension reforms will be suspended.
  • UK ONS said there’s an error in public finances data between Jan-Aug, citing HMRC error; VAT data error means public sector net borrowing in current and prior FY is a combined GBP 3bln lower. UK borrowing in the past five months of FY was GBP 2bln lower than previously thought.
  • ECB’s Rehn has warned there is a risk that inflation slows below the ECB’s 2% inflation target, according to Bloomberg, citing the Karon Grilli podcast. There are downside inflation risks in sight over the next couple of years; cites EUR strength, stabilisation of wages and services inflation.
  • ECB’s Nagel said current monetary policy is appropriate; euro zone inflation close to 2% target, via Greek newspaper.
  • ECB’s Escriva said he cannot pre-empt direction of future policy move; inflation expectations are very much anchored ECB needs to be cautious. Outlook remains uncertain going forward. Wouldn’t overemphasise a strong euro as a risk factor, European economy showing great deal of resilience. Trade disruptions from US are potentially inflationary. Inflation risks are very much balanced. Spanish housing supply lagging very much.
  • BoE FPC Minutes: FPC decided to maintain the UK countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) rate at 2% Risks associated with geopolitical tensions, global fragmentation of trade and financial markets, and pressures on sovereign debt markets remain elevated. Despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook, risky asset valuations have increased and credit spreads have compressed. There have been some notable credit defaults in the US automotive sector since the last meeting. A sudden or significant change in perceptions of Federal Reserve credibility could result in a sharp re-pricing of US dollar assets, including in US sovereign debt markets, with the potential for increased volatility, risk premia, and global spillovers.

FX

  • DXY is up for a third session in a row with WTD gains thus far of 1.1%. It remains the case that the price action is not being driven by outright bullish calls on the USD but more a case of weakness elsewhere, mainly JPY and EUR, with NZD the latest of its major counterparts to take a stumble. If anything, the macro narrative surrounding the US remains a downbeat one as the government shutdown continues to drag on, delaying economic data releases and threatening a hit to domestic growth. DXY has ventured as high as 98.97 with focus on a test of the 99.0 mark; not breached since 5th August.
  • EUR remains pressured vs. the USD and is just about holding onto a 1.16 handle after delving as low as 1.1607. French political turmoil remains a key part of the Eurozone macro narrative with PM Lecornu (also due to speak @ 19:00BST) set to meet with socialists, greens and communists in an attempt to form a coalition government. The likely price for Macron will be a left-wing PM, which could make the parliamentary arithmetic easier for passing a budget, given that the Socialist Party holds the most seats in the National Assembly. Aside from France, Germany saw further woeful data earlier in the session with German Industrial Orders falling well short of consensus and subsequently stoking concerns over a contraction in the domestic economy. In terms of price action, if 1.16 gives way in EUR/USD the next target comes via the 27th August low at 1.1573.
  • JPY remains very much on the backfoot against the USD with USD/JPY having risen five handles since Takaichi’s victory in the LDP leadership race. The move has been relentless this week given the market’s view that the fallout of Takaichi will leader to a mix of looser monetary and fiscal policy. Subsequently, markets only assign a circa 25% chance of a cut this month vs. roughly 70% last week. Further reason for caution in expecting additional tightening from the BoJ was presented overnight via the August real cash earnings data, which printed a deeper-than-expected contraction. USD/JPY has climbed as high as 152.96 with focus now on a test of 153; not breached since February. If the pair begins to approach 155, given the velocity of the move, expectations of potential intervention will likely increase.
  • GBP is a touch weaker vs. the USD but stronger vs. the EUR. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, in the absence of any tier 1 UK data, the macro narrative has failed to evolve beyond ongoing angst ahead of the November 26th Budget. BoE Chief Economist Pill is due to give remarks at 16:00BST. GBP/USD briefly tripped below Tuesday’s low at 1.3391 before returning to a 1.34 handle.
  • NZD is the laggard across the majors after the RBNZ’s decision to opt for a deeper 50bps rate cut (views heading into the meeting were split between 25bps and 50bps). Additionally, the committee noted that it remains open to additional reductions. The minutes stated that the case for reducing the OCR by 50 basis points emphasised prolonged spare capacity and the associated downside risk to medium-term activity and inflation. Subsequently, has extended its descent on a 0.57 handle and hit its lowest level since April 11th.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are trading firmer by a few ticks, following the positivity seen across global peers. Currently trading at the upper end of a 112-19+ to 112-25+ range. Nothing really driving sentiment today from a US perspective, but upside, which comes after the safe-haven related upside seen in the prior session. Now traders await a 10yr outing; as a reminder, the last sale was strong, receiving strong demand and a 1.3bps stop-through. FOMC Minutes (Sept) and a slew of Fed speakers will also be in focus, in a day which is void of key US data.
  • Bunds are firmer today, in-fitting with the upside seen across peers. Upside today began into German data, before taking another leg higher on the release itself – an upward bias which has held throughout the morning thus far. To recap that German data in brief, Industrial Output printed well below expectations at -4.5% (exp. -1%), though the accompanying release highlighted some caveats; “The marked decrease may be explained, at least in part, by the combination of annual plant closures for holidays and production changeovers”. The upswing seen earlier in the year looks increasingly associated with US-tariff related front loading – following the data, ING suggests that there is now an increasing likelihood of another quarter of contraction for the German economy. Thereafter, the German auction was poor, but ultimately had little follow-through to price action.
  • OATs are the relative outperformer today, as outgoing PM Lecornu aims to hold last-minute talks with opposition parties. To recap the situation in France, President Macron asked the PM to hold talks with the opposition parties, giving him a deadline until Wednesday evening. In a presser today, Lecornu said he will present his findings to Macron later this evening; overall, his comments leaned more positively, suggesting that the talks so far show a willingness to get this budget through by year-end. Moreover, Lecornu has suggested suspending President Macron’s pension reforms, which would be welcomed by those on the left. The outgoing PM will be speaking again at 19:00 BST. On the presser itself, some very marginal upticks were in OATs; the OAT-Bund 10yr spread has tightened from recent highs, currently trading around 83.6bps vs previous close at 86.15bps.
  • Gilts are in the green alongside peers. Currently trading in a 90.69 to 90.83 range. UK press remains heavily focused on the looming Autumn Budget; most recently, the FT reported that Pimco and BlackRock have called Chancellor Reeves to build a larger buffer in the UK public finances in the November Budget to avoid years of uncertainty over tax and spending decisions. However, a factor boosting sentiment is the ONS revising down UK Government borrowing by GBP 2bln after a recent data error – which may alleviate some of the borrowing-related pressure the Chancellor faces. Today a strong 2029 auction, which saw a b/c of 2.92x had little impact on prices.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are trading slightly higher, extending on the prior day’s high, despite worries of oversupply in the market with OPEC+ hiked production at its last meeting (albeit by a smaller than expected magnitude) and amid forecasts in the US that point to a record domestic oil output. WTI and Brent continued the late bid from yesterday’s session to form a peak at USD 62.45/bbl and USD 66.15/bbl, respectively, at the time of writing, before a dip towards USD 62.12/bbl and USD 65.88/bbl, respectively, as commentary from the Egypt talks remains positive. Note: EIA is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection.
  • Spot gold has broken the USD 4k/oz mark, extending to a peak of USD 4039/oz and thus far remaining near ATHs. The surge in precious metals also comes as investors look to safe havens away from the dollar to protect against rising government debt burdens, geopolitical tensions and expectations of the dollar to continue lower.
  • Base metals remain rangebound as China re-enters the market tomorrow. 3M LME Copper dipped to a trough of USD 10.68k/t before reversing to a peak of USD 10.78k/t as copper consolidates after a record weekly gain. Amid copper consolidation, there continues to be a growing consensus that copper still has further to go, with forecasts being revised higher towards USD 11.5-12k/t by the first half of next year due to supply disruptions and a continuing weaker dollar.
  • US Private Energy Inventories Data (bbls) Crude +2.8mln (exp. +1.9mln), Distillate -1.8mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline -1.2mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing -1.2mln.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • “There are outstanding issues among the negotiators in Egypt”, according to Al Arabiya sources.
  • Hamas said group positivity is needed to reach a deal, said list of hostages’ names exchanged on Wednesday according to agreed numbers, according to a statement.
  • “An Israeli security source told Sky News Arabia: Israel insists on not accepting any ideas outside the Trump plan”, according to Sky News Arabia
  • The atmosphere in the Sharm el-Sheikh negotiations appears to be “very positive”, according to a correspondent at Sky News Arabia.
  • Hamas leader tells AFP: “Optimism” dominates Gaza talks, via Sky News Arabia.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi denies reports that he’s been in direct contact with US Envoy Witkoff including secret meetings in Doha or Muscat.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russian Foreign Minister says maintaining Russia’s obligations under the plutonium agreement with the US is no longer acceptable, via Tass.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:00 am: Oct 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -12.7%
  • 2:00 pm: Sep 17 FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 2:00 pm: Sep Federal Budget Balance, est. 50b, prior -344.79b

Central Banks 

  • 9:20 am: Fed’s Musalem Gives Welcoming Remarks
  • 9:30 am: Fed’s Barr Keynote at Community Banking Research Conference
  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
  • 3:15 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Center for Indian Country Development
  • 4:30 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Hosts Fireside Chat with Senator Tina Smith
  • 5:45 pm: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Community Development
  • 7:15 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Payments Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets struggled to gain traction yesterday, posting a risk-off move as investors grappled with political uncertainty in France and the US government shutdown. So the S&P 500 (-0.38%) lost ground from its record high on Monday, and 10yr Treasury yields (-2.9bps) also fell back. That concern was clear on several fronts, and investor jitters about France’s debt trajectory pushed the Franco-German 10yr spread to 86bps, the biggest gap since January. Moreover,  spot gold prices have just risen above the $4,000/oz mark for the first time overnight, continuing its relentless rally that’s seen it rise more than 50% so far this year.

In terms of the latest from France, there’s been little sign of any progress being made following PM Lecornu’s resignation on Monday. As a reminder, President Macron gave Lecornu a deadline of tonight to reach agreement among the different political groups, but so far at least there’s been no compromise emerging. Indeed, yesterday there was mounting speculation about another legislative election being called. For instance on Polymarket, it’s suggesting there’s a 67% chance of another election being called, rather than a new PM being appointed, which is up from 49% as we went to press yesterday. And at one point yesterday evening, it even rose as high as 85%.

When it comes to the market reaction, French bonds have continued to underperform, pushing the 10yr spread over bunds up to 86bps. So that’s very close to its peak of 88bps last December when it became clear that former PM Michel Barnier was likely to lose the confidence vote. Indeed, that 88bps level hasn’t been exceeded since 2012, back when then-ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, leading to a big confidence boost that helped spreads come down. To be fair, French equities fared relatively better yesterday, and France’s CAC 40 (+0.04%) stabilised after its Monday slump. However, banks continued to lose ground, including Société Générale (-1.88%), BNP Paribas (-1.15%) Crédit Agricole (-0.21%).

Of course, politics are very much in the spotlight elsewhere, as the US government shutdown shows no sign of ending. In terms of the latest, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said that proposals to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits for a year were “a non-starter”. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine told reporters on Monday that she was working on a plan to reopen the government, at least partially, in exchange for a deadline for a discussion on ACA subsidies. But the bigger picture is still concern about an extended shutdown that starts to have a more meaningful economic impact, and on Polymarket, there’s only a 25% chance given to the shutdown ending before October 15.

US equities struggled against that backdrop, and the S&P 500 (-0.38%) fell back after a run of 7 consecutive gains. In part, that was driven by a decline for Oracle (-2.52%), after a report from The Information said that their profit margins for cloud computing were lower than analysts’ estimates. So tech stocks struggled, and the Magnificent 7 (-1.25%) and the NASDAQ (-0.67%) also saw a decent decline. Autos (-4.37%) were the biggest laggard in the S&P, as Tesla (-4.45%) fell after their announcement of a less expensive version of their model Y car and Ford fell -6.1% after the WSJ reported that a plant fire in a New York state aluminum plant will increase costs and cause delivery disruptions. Meanwhile, the outperformers were among the more defensive sectors, with consumer staples (+0.86%) and utilities (+0.42%) both advancing.

As that was happening, Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr yield coming down -2.9bps on the day to 4.12%. That came as investors slightly dialled up the pace of Fed rate cuts over the months ahead, with 111bps priced in by December 2026, up +2.0bps on the day. Meanwhile, Fed speakers continued to strike a divergent tone. For instance, Fed Governor Miran remained dovish, saying that he was “more sanguine on the inflation outlook than a lot of other people are”. But Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari warned that “Some of the data that we’re looking at is sending some stagflationary signals”.

On that theme, the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations found that near-term inflation expectations ticked higher in September. So 1yr inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, which is their highest since April, and 5yr expectations moved up to 3.0%, which is their highest since February. However, it’s still an open question what will happen with the US CPI report itself on October 15, as it’s a release that will also be affected by the ongoing government shutdown, just like payrolls was last Friday.

Back in Europe, there wasn’t too much happening outside of France, with most assets seeing little change. So the STOXX 600 (-0.17%) only posted a modest decline, alongside steady moves for the DAX (+0.03%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.05%). Similarly for bond yields, there wasn’t too much movement in absolute terms, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (+0.3bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) seeing little change. There also wasn’t much data, although German factory orders underwhelmed with a -0.8% decline in August (vs. +1.2% expected).

Overnight in Asia, things have been a bit more eventful this morning, with continued movements in Japanese markets after Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP leader. For instance, the 10yr government bond yield (+1.4bps) has reached a post-2008 high of 1.69%, whilst the yen (-0.30%) has weakened overnight to 152.36 per dollar, its weakest level since February. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.11%) has also lost ground after a run of 4 consecutive gains. That comes as data showed wage growth was softer than expected in August, with nominal wages up +1.5% year-on-year in August (vs. +2.7% expected). And in real terms, wage growth remains negative as it has throughout 2025, at -1.4% (vs. -0.5% expected). Otherwise, there’s been a mixed equity performance in Asia, with the Hang Seng (-1.07%) losing ground, alongside gains for the CSI 300 (+0.45%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.52%) and the KOSPI (+2.70%).

Elsewhere, the main surprise has come from New Zealand overnight, where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a surprise 50bp cut, larger than the 25bp move expected, which takes their Official Cash rate down to 2.5%. So that’s led to a depreciation in the New Zealand dollar, which has weakened by -0.96% against the US dollar overnight, making it the worst-performing G10 currency. The statement said that the committee “remains open to further reductions”, and New Zealand’s 10yr yield (-4.6bps) has fallen to a 12-month low in response.

Finally, the other big headline overnight has been that spot gold prices have risen through the $4,000/oz mark for the first time. The latest moves come with treasury yields moving lower and the ongoing shutdown, but gold prices have been moving higher throughout the year, having risen by more than +50% since the end of 2024. So as it stands, it remains well on track for its strong annual increase since 1979, when the oil shock that year led to a huge surge in inflation. As a reminder, Marion on our team published an update yesterday (link here) on the future of central banks holding both gold and Bitcoin in their balance sheets by 2030.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 08:44

Surveillance Money: The European Central Bank Accelerates The Digital Euro

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Surveillance Money: The European Central Bank Accelerates The Digital Euro

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Many market participants have built long positions on euro-denominated assets, expecting a positive outcome from the German stimulus plan and Rearm Europe projects. However, betting on a stronger euro may be optimistic considering the poor track record of these government plans, the rising fiscal challenges of France and other nations, the elevated debt and enormous unfunded liabilities, as well as the imminent implementation of a central bank digital currency. There are undoubted fiscal and deficit problems in the United States, but the relative position against the euro is undeniably stronger considering all the previously mentioned factors.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has accelerated its plan for a digital euro and recently hired the top global tech companies to create the architecture. However, European banks are rightly concerned, as a central bank digital currency poses significant privacy risks as well as a grave erosion of the capacity of the banking sector to lend and perform adequately.

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can be a dangerous tool for their potential risks to privacy, financial stability, and the concentration of monetary power. In the United States, the Trump administration has issued an executive order banning the use of these instruments, labelling them as “monetary tyranny”.

A CBDC is not the same as electronic money. A digital euro would give unprecedented surveillance capabilities to the central bank. Unlike current electronic payments, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) gives monetary authorities full and direct access to every transaction and savings account, eliminating financial privacy for citizens. This could allow for monitoring, controlling, or even penalising financial behaviours that central authorities may consider undesirable. Furthermore, a CBDC would eliminate the current limits in the financial system that prevent excessive money printing. Bypassing commercial banks and credit mechanisms allows central banks to instantly increase the money supply and finance government spending, eroding traditional budget controls. Removing commercial banks from the monetary system’s transmission mechanism destabilises credit creation and increases the risk of crowding out the private sector.

The main arguments in favour of a digital euro, such as efficiency and enhanced monetary policy transmission, do not withstand scrutiny. None of those benefits require a centralised currency, much less a central bank-controlled monetary monopoly. If those were the real objectives, policymakers would encourage more decentralisation and competition instead of more central planning. The goal is more state control and rapid monetary financing of government spending, not real improvements for consumers or savers.

A CBDC is the evidence that the central bank does not want to strengthen the currency by making it attractive for investors but to impose its use.

In October 2025, the ECB signed framework agreements with ten of the largest technology companies to provide the primary operational and infrastructural components for the planned digital euro, valued at over €1.1 billion. They include companies like Giesecke+Devrient (which makes offline payment solutions), Feedzai (which uses AI to find fraud), Almaviva and Fabrick (which make mobile wallet apps), and Senacor FCS (which makes it safe to share payment information). The framework agreements set the eurozone up for a possible launch of the digital euro by 2029. They cover software development, security, and fraud management.

The ECB says that these agreements are only for planning and that the currency won’t be issued until laws are passed and the next phases of the project are approved. The technology providers will help design and test several technical requirements, such as real-time fraud monitoring and offline use. None of these elements are reducing the widespread concern about privacy, control and erosion of the credit mechanisms as they exist.

European commercial banks are distressed that a digital euro could hurt their main business models, and they are right. Lawmakers in the European Parliament are worried that a retail digital euro could force people to move a lot of money from commercial banks to central bank accounts, which would hurt the sector’s private sector credit origination. The central bank would have access to all citizens’ financial data, raising privacy concerns, even if they “promise” not to use it.

Banks say that a digital euro that is legally deemed free of risk would take funds out of the private financial system, making it harder for financial institutions to lend and prioritising credit to governments over loans to families and businesses. Furthermore, compliance and infrastructure costs are enormous, regulations are unclear and vague, and privacy protections are, at best, undefined.

A CBDC could let central banks watch almost all transactions and financial decisions by citizens, taking away the privacy that comes with cash and giving the government the power to investigate, limit, or even punish users’ financial activities. Central banks can also quickly increase the money supply with a direct digital euro, without the usual limits that come from demand for credit in the banking sector. This eliminates essential limits to inflation and makes monetary policy directly subordinate to political expenditure priorities.

The CBDC will inevitably push commercial banks into a marginal role, creating a dangerous concentration of financial power in the hands of policymakers and technocrats.

The central bank’s independence and the laws guaranteeing privacy provide vague answers to all these concerns. However, centralisation is always a threat, and those laws and their alleged independence are widely questioned when the central bank has consistently bowed down to political pressure to use expansionary monetary tools for government financing. The digital euro is likely to become another tool for rapid, unrestricted fiscal expansion and the subsequent loss of the purchasing power of the currency as the limits offered by banking intermediation are eliminated.

If governments want more efficiency, technology, and a stronger currency that is globally valued, they should encourage decentralisation and competition, not the opposite.

Contracts between the ECB and major tech companies are laying the technical groundwork for a digital euro. Regrettably, privacy and independence receive no priority. The digital euro has serious systemic, economic, and ethical issues and can be used by governments with unsustainable spending and debt problems to debase the currency and use it to finance bloated government projects. European banks are concerned and rightly so. The risk of excessively loosening monetary policy and resulting in complete monetary financing of government spending is significant.

A digital euro is surveillance disguised as money, and governments will do all they can to use it as a tool for direct monetary financing of deficits. If you believe that the same policymakers and governments that have done nothing to control debt accumulation and excessive spending are going to defend the purchasing power of the currency, you are dreaming.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 07:45

Chip Equipment Makers Slide After U.S. House Panel’s Explosive Report Reveals Allied Firms Bolstered China’s Chip Industry

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Chip Equipment Makers Slide After U.S. House Panel’s Explosive Report Reveals Allied Firms Bolstered China’s Chip Industry

ASML Holding NV shares tumbled in Europe after a months-long bipartisan investigation by the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), published new findings on Tuesday afternoon showing that American, Dutch, and Japanese semiconductor equipment firms have bolstered China’s chipmaking capacity, including through sales to Chinese state-owned and military-linked entities.

ASML and other semiconductor equipment makers, including Tokyo Electron Ltd, Applied Materials Inc., KLA Corp., and Lam Research Corp, “made sizeable returns selling equipment to Chinese state-owned and military-linked companies,” according to the Select Committee on China. 

Here are the key findings from the report:

  • Massive Exposure to China: In 2024, Chinese buyers made up 44% of Tokyo Electron’s revenue, 42% for Lam Research, 41% for KLA, and 36% for both ASML and Applied Materials.

  • Sales to High-Risk Customers: The companies sold tools to five entities already flagged by the U.S. government for ties to China’s military and intelligence services, including Huawei affiliates.

  • Rapid Revenue Growth From China State-Owned Enterprises: Sales to Chinese state-owned enterprises surged from $9.5 billion in 2022 (11% of total revenue) to $26.2 billion in 2024 (27% of total revenue and 69% of China-based revenue).

  • Exploiting Loopholes: As the U.S. tightened export rules, Dutch and Japanese firms ramped up shipments of slightly less advanced lithography systems to China, suggesting CCP stockpiling below restriction thresholds.

Chairman Moolenaar stated that China is “growing its profits at the expense of U.S. national security“, adding, “We must not allow this critical equipment to be handed over to our foremost adversary, or America could lose the technology arms race.” 

National Security Concerns:

  • Military: Chips are powering the PLA’s AI-driven “intelligentized” warfare systems.

  • Trade: China seeks vertical integration to evade future export restrictions.

  • Economic Security: Dominance in legacy and advanced chipmaking could give Beijing global leverage.

  • Human Rights: AI and high-performance computing bolster China’s domestic surveillance and global digital authoritarianism.

“It makes little sense to sell the CCP the chips they need to modernize their military and violate human rights. But it makes even less sense to sell them the machines and tools they need to produce those chips themselves. This bipartisan investigation reveals that the scale of these sales by Dutch, Japanese, and American firms is even more vast than we realized. Alongside our allies, we need to protect our national security and ensure we remain the world’s leading innovators in SME,” said Ranking Member Krishnamoorthi.

The investigation concludes: 

“The ability to design and produce semiconductors lies at the heart of the technology competition with China, and SME represents a crucial chokepoint that the U.S. and our allies currently have over China. As the U.S. government works with our allies and partners and plots the course ahead on export-control policy and related actions, this crucial chokepoint must be preserved, not squandered. The U.S. and allies only have the ability to export-control SME because we collectively are the world’s leading innovators in SME. We must double down on our success.”

Shares of ASML, Tokyo Electron, KLA, Applied Materials, and Lam Research all tumbled on their respective exchanges after the Select Committee on China released its report late Tuesday afternoon.

We doubt the Trump administration will launch a major crackdown on these semiconductor equipment makers just yet, given that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet later this month in South Korea. The last thing Washington needs is added turmoil in Sino-US relations before the continuation of in-person trade talks, primarily as Trump officials work to secure a deal and move things forward.

*   *   * 

Read the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) new report:

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 07:20

Goldman: $10,000 Is New Price Floor For Copper 

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Goldman: $10,000 Is New Price Floor For Copper 

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange are near record highs as traders weighed supply disruptions at major mines, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and demand outlooks tied to power grid upgrades and AI-related growth. 

Focusing on copper prices, a team of Goldman analysts led by Eoin Dinsmore told clients on Monday that the industrial metal is entering a new structural price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton.

Dinsmore’s thesis is clear:

We believe that the copper price is resetting in a new range of $10,000-$11,000/t – a range copper has never held for longer than two months – as resource constraints and structural demand growth from critical sectors set a new price floor from 2026 onward. We lift our 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500/t (from $10,000) following the Grasberg outage, also supported by U.S. Fed rate cuts and further U.S. dollar depreciation, and maintain our $10,750/t 2027 forecast.

While we are bullish on copper prices vs. historical averages and the 2027 forwards, we believe that there is a ceiling at $11,000 for the coming two years. The copper market is currently in a modest surplus, which we expect to be maintained in 2026, even after a significant drop in global refined output following recent mine disruptions. We do not see a deficit materialising until the end of the decade.

The commodity analyst outlined three reasons why copper should trade in the $10,000 to $11,000 range through 2027:

  1. Mine supply is constrained, but enough to meet demand for now: Multiple recent mine incidents highlight the growing structural challenges in copper mining as copper mines get deeper, grades get lower and ore gets harder, requiring greater investment. This caps our mine supply growth forecast at an annual average of +1.5% YoY in 2025-30. While high copper prices are already delivering investment in China, DR Congo, Russia, and Uzbekistan, which we believe will be enough to meet demand over the next two years, a price above $10,500 is needed to incentivise investment in brownfield South American mines, required to balance the market later in the decade. Meanwhile, we expect a pick up in copper scrap use to help delay any deficit in the copper market until later in the decade, likely limiting copper price upside beyond $11,000/t in 2026/27.

  2. Structural demand growth from critical sectors moderated by accelerated substitution in cyclical sectors: We forecast global refined copper demand growth to moderate from +2.8% YoY in 2025 to an average of +2.1% YoY in 2026-2030. We continue to see grid and power infrastructure driving over 60% of the growth in our forecasts, with additional direct boosts from defense, electric vehicles, wind and datacenters. Importantly, we see investment in aging Western power grids as a national security priority, due to its critical role in AI, defense and energy security. However, we also forecast accelerated copper to aluminium substitution in cyclical sectors, which slows copper demand growth and keeps the market in small surplus. This substitution contributes to copper pricing into a higher range, rather than an open-ended rally.

  3. Strategic Stockpiling: Given copper’s dual nature of constrained resources and essential use in critical sectors, it is a compelling commodity to strategically stockpile. This means that even as our balance implies that the market will remain in a small surplus over the coming years (vs our leaning towards a small deficit previously), this inventory build is likely to be at least partly absorbed by strategic stockpiles, limiting the visible stockbuild and downward pressure on exchange prices.

Dinsmore expects prices to remain above $10,000 for the remainder of this year, primarily due to Freeport-McMoRan’s force majeure declaration on contracted supplies from its giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest source of the metal, following a mudslide last month. 

At the time, Goldman’s commodity specialist, James McGeoch, called the event a “black swan event” (see the report)…

Dinsmore noted, “The global copper market to move into deficit by the end of the decade.” 

Copper Price Already Near Top End of Goldman’s Price Anchors

When to Expect the Deficit

The note includes tons of charts and an in-depth analysis of global copper markets, outlining what to expect through the end of the decade. ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full report in the usual place.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 04:15

Egypt Wants US Troops In Gaza As Part Of Peacekeeping Mission

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Egypt Wants US Troops In Gaza As Part Of Peacekeeping Mission

Via Middle East Eye

US troops will need to deploy to Gaza if the international force of peacekeepers that President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan envisions is to become a reality, Egypt has told the US, according to two Arab officials who spoke to Middle East Eye.

Senior Egyptian officials told their US counterparts that they want the International Stabilization Force outlined in Trump’s 20-point peace plan to be modelled on the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) that deployed to Sinai after the peninsula was returned to Egypt from Israel in 1982. The US has led the MFO since its inception, supplying hundreds of troops as a buffer and reassurance force.

Via AFP

Trump’s plan envisions the international force made up of Arab and Muslim states securing Gaza as Israel withdraws. Egypt, the only Arab country that borders Gaza, is set to play a key role in the force, as it is home to the Arab world’s largest army.

Egyptian military intelligence also has ties with Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades.  MEE reported earlier that Hamas wants Turkish troops to deploy to Gaza to guarantee the ceasefire, but the two Arab officials and a former senior US official said Israel objects to a Turkish presence.

The Egyptian request, which has been communicated publicly and privately, is likely to test Trump’s appetite for a deeper military footprint in Gaza. One former senior US official familiar with the request said it was a nonstarter.

However, there are some signs that the US is preparing for a bigger military footprint in Israel’s neighborhood already. US military personnel at the Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar have shifted to Jordan for the coming months, one Arab official told MEE.

The military personnel belong to risk and security assessment teams, effectively managing security at the US military base. Current and former US and Arab officials told MEE that the move could signal the US is preparing for more troops to arrive in the region. Trump’s plan has listed Jordan and Egypt as key security partners in Gaza.

The deployment of US troops to Gaza is just one of many sensitive points that negotiators meeting in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh this week have to address to end Israel’s war on Gaza as it approaches the two-year mark.

Arab and Muslim countries were angered when Trump unveiled his plan last week. Although he recognized two of their key demands – a permanent end to the war and no forced displacement from Gaza – he did not commit to a Palestinian state and left room for Israel to stall its withdrawal from Gaza.

Egypt was especially upset that Trump downplayed the role of the Palestinian Authority, MEE reported. But the US’s Arab and Muslim partners are backing the plan. Trump prides himself as a negotiator, and analysts and diplomats say much is still up for discussion this week in Egypt.

‘Skin in the game’

Trump called on Sunday for mediators to “move fast” to reach an agreement after he welcomed Hamas’s response to his proposal as a pathway for a deal. Hamas, Egyptian, Qatari, Turkish, US and Israeli officials are participating in the talks, Arab officials told MEE.

The plan calls for the quick release of all remaining Israeli captives in Gaza – roughly 20 are still alive – in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas and Israel have orchestrated prisoner exchanges before, including during a ceasefire in January that collapsed two months later when Israel unilaterally resumed attacking Gaza. If all goes according to plan this time, the first phase of the deal, the captives’ release, would be over in 72 hours, although analysts warn it could take longer for Hamas to locate the living and dead captives.

One central sticking point in the talks is the timeline for Israel’s withdrawal. Trump’s plan provides no specific deadline and leaves Israel space to remain deep inside Gaza.

Egypt, Qatar and Turkey are pressing for a complete withdrawal, Arab officials told MEE. Hamas is expected to insist that Israel withdraw to a narrow buffer zone around Gaza before fully leaving the enclave. 

Arab leaders whose armies are expected to partake in the international peacekeeping force don’t want their soldiers rubbing shoulders with Israelis among the ruins of Gaza. Nor do they want to be seen as providing cover for Israel if it unilaterally resumes attacking Gaza.

Egypt, which is likely to contribute the bulk of soldiers, is especially worried, Arab officials told MEE. “For the Egyptians, a US presence would represent an actual commitment to the plan in real terms; troops and funds. It would be viewed as skin in the game, a tangible embodiment of US support, and, potentially, an incentive for Israel to curb violations,” Mirette Mabrouk, who is currently in Cairo and heads the Middle East Institute’s Egypt programme, told MEE.

“Although the attack on Doha proved that US presence is no automatic safeguard against Israeli aggression,” she added, referring to Israel’s attack on the Qatari capital in September.

Egyptian intelligence has been in talks with Hamas’s armed wing about disarmament, which is stipulated under Trump’s plan. It has been a source of growing tension between the Palestinian movement and Cairo. One of the Arab officials familiar with the talks told MEE it was “difficult”.

Several options have been reported, including Hamas turning its arms directly over to Egypt and storing them. The Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas wants to keep its small arms, which it considers defensive. 

Riccardo Fabiani, the North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, told MEE that in addition to “containing Israel”, Egypt wants US troops on the ground to be able to verify the handover of weapons – which Israel could use as a provocation to restart attacks. “They want the US to participate in whatever disarmament process is going to take place,” he said.

“I don’t see this administration particularly interested in having permanent troops involved in peacekeeping. They prefer bombing a place and getting out,” he said.

Trump’s plan rules out Hamas governing Gaza. It calls for a “Board of Peace” led by Trump to govern the enclave alongside Palestinian technocrats.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/08/2025 – 03:30

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