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“Cut The Federal Budget In Half… And Get More Done…”

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“Cut The Federal Budget In Half… And Get More Done…”

Elon Musk told Joe Rogan, during his latest podcast appearance, that given unlimited powers (which he doubts is possible in our supposedly democratic regime), he could “cut the federal budget in half.. and get more done.”

Reflecting on his disappointing efforts at DOGE (which he notes were stalled by both the left and the right not wanting to end the grift), Musk notes the authoritarian nature of an end-game solution to the US government’s spending problems make it nearly impossible, but he argues that many U.S. government departments are wasteful and counterproductive, citing the Department of Education as a prime example.

Created in the late 1970s, he said, educational outcomes have worsened ever since – proving that centralization often destroys competition and results.

As ‘Camus’ noted on X, Musk questioned why, when America first thrived with just a few departments – State, Treasury, War, and Justice – we now need an enormous federal apparatus that employs millions in roles “that add no real value.”

Referring to a famous Milton Friedman anecdote, Musk mocked the idea that keeping unproductive jobs alive somehow benefits society.

“If you want job creation for its own sake,” he joked, “have people dig with teaspoons instead of shovels.”

His core philosophy was clear: true progress comes from productivity, innovation, and useful work – not bureaucracy.

Watch the brief interchange here…

Source: Camus

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 20:30

Family Violence Against Seniors In Canada Reaches Record High

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Family Violence Against Seniors In Canada Reaches Record High

Authored by Chandra Philip via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Incidents of family violence against Canadian seniors has hit a record high, according to data from Statistics Canada.

The recently released StatCan report found that the number of seniors mistreated by a family member has risen 49 percent since 2018. StatCan analyzed police-reported incidents of family violence nationwide for the study.

Seniors were most often victimized by a child (36 percent) or spouse (28 percent), the report found, while 25 percent were victimized by another family member, with 11 percent identifying the perpetrator as a sibling.

A total of 7,622 incidents of senior family violence were reported to police in 2024.

StatCan noted there has been a 4 percent increase in family violence against seniors since 2023, which was considered the highest recorded rate at the time.

Seventy-two percent of senior victims said they were victims of a physical assault by a family member in 2024, while 17 percent said they were a victim of threats.

The number of family violence cases for senior women was slightly higher than than of senior men, with 104 female victims per 100,000 people and 92 males per 100,000 people.

StatCan said women 65 years and older were most often mistreated by their child (34 percent) or spouse (32 percent), while 39 percent of senior men said they were victimized by their child and 21 percent reported being mistreated by a spouse.

Overall, the rate of family violence increased by 17 percent between 2018 and 2024, according to StatCan. The report also said that cases of intimate partner violence increased by 14 percent during the same time period.

Police services in Canada said there were 349 victims of family violence per 100,000 population in 2024, StatCan noted.

The StatCan report also noted an increase in intimate partner violence among victims aged 12 or older—a number that grew 14 percent.

The rise was larger for men and boys, who saw a 21 percent increase, compared to women and girls, who saw a 16 percent increase.

StatCan said there were 25,938 child and youth victims of police-reported family violence in 2024, a rate of 345 victims per 100,000 population aged 17 and younger.

The report said that 30 percent of children were mistreated by a family member.

The rate of family violence against children has increased 26 percent since 2018, with most being victimized by a parent (61 percent), while 15 percent were victimized by a sibling and 24 percent by another family member.

The majority children and youth (57 percent) were victims of physical assault, while 33 percent of child and youth were victims of sexual assault.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 20:05

“That’d Be So Sick!”: Sydney Sweeney May Bounce Into The Ring For Charity Boxing Match

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“That’d Be So Sick!”: Sydney Sweeney May Bounce Into The Ring For Charity Boxing Match

Sydney Sweeney, who may or may not have ‘perfect titties‘ (she does), has hinted at getting in the ring for a charity boxing match.

The 28-year-old actress has packed on 35 pounds to play world champion boxer Christy Martin in a new sports biopic out Nov. 7, and tells SportsCasting that she may put on the gloves for real.

“There was a moment in the middle of filming where I was like, ‘Should I give it all up and fight because I love this,” she said, adding that Martin, 57, offered to sign her up. 

“So, this isn’t as hypothetical as you actually think it is,” Sweeney continued. “I’d totally do a charity bout, that’d be so sick!”

Sydney Sweeney stars as Christy Martin in ‘Christy.’ (Josh Lawson/Black Bear)

When asked who she’d fight, the actress said: “It’s a surprise, you’ll have to wait, I’m serious … “You gotta stay tuned for the pay-per-view and you’ll see it.”

Martin, who Sweeney plays, served as a consultant on the biographical film. Other cast members include actors Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, and Katy O’Brian.

The former pro boxer was a trailblazer in women’s boxing – earning the WBC female super walterweight title in 2009, before she survived an attempted murder at the hands of her ex-husband, James Martin – who was found guilty of second-degree murder with a firearm in 2012 and sentenced to 25 years in prison. He died in November of last year while serving out his sentence at Graceville Correctional Facility in Florida. 

“Christy, your story has completely changed me, and as we get closer to sharing this film with the world, I wanted to share something,” Sweeney posted on Instagram over the weekend.

“One of the first things I watched when I got this role was this video. Her powerful testimony at her ex-husband’s hearing. The man who tried to kill her. I hope this film helps so many others.”

Sweeney has also starred in the following photo shoots and public displays of sexyness, which we’re posting in the name of good journalism: 

Perfect titties confirmed

We’ll give you a few minutes alone… 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 19:40

US To Cut Flights By 10% At 40 Airports As Shutdown Persists

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US To Cut Flights By 10% At 40 Airports As Shutdown Persists

Air traffic at 40 major US airports will be cut by 10% starting Friday as travelers continue to face flight disruptions due to a spike in air traffic controller absences during what is now the longest government shutdown on record. 

During a Wednesday press briefing alongside the leader of the Federal Aviation Administration, Bryan Bedford, US transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that the Federal Aviation Administration would begin reducing flights later this week to keep air travel safe as it contends with shutdown pain on top of a nationwide shortfall of about 2,000 air traffic controllers. 

The names of the 40 affected airports would be released on Thursday, FAA head Bryan Bedford said at the press conference with Duffy, who said the decision would be data-based. 

“The data will dictate what we do,” Duffy said. “If the data goes in the wrong direction, could you see additional restrictions? Yes.”

“This is not based on what airlines have more flights out of what location. This is about, ‘Where’s the pressure, and how do we alleviate the pressure?’” Duffy said. 

Duffy said the cuts were necessary to maintain air travel safety. Cuts to international flights hadn’t been discussed, although unless the shutdown situation changes, those too are likely. Bedford added that he sees the FAA restricting space launches as well. 

Airlines were expected to advise customers of changes to scheduled flights after Thursday’s announcement.

The transportation secretary added that steps had already been taken to shore up its workforce — including offering cash bonuses to incentivise retirement-age controllers to continue working, and “surging” trainees at its academy.

“The shutdown is having an impact on our ability to maintain those numbers and dent that 2,000 shortage that we have,” he added.

The FAA has been forced to slow traffic at many airports in recent days due to rising controller staffing shortages since the government shutdown began on Oct. 1. Air traffic controllers continue to work without pay.

Millions of passengers have grappled with flight cancellations and delays related to staffing since the shutdown started, Airlines for America, a trade group, said. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 19:15

“We’re Coming After You” – How Some On The Left Found Peace Through Hate

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“We’re Coming After You” – How Some On The Left Found Peace Through Hate

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In Shakespeare’s Richard III, Queen Elizabeth — whose husband King Edward IV was overthrown and her twins taken to the Tower — asks the older Queen Margaret (widow of the murdered King Henry VI) to “teach me how to curse mine enemies.” The Queen responds that it is easy: “Think that thy babes were sweeter than they were, And he that slew them fouler than he is.”

The lesson: The key to hate is to decouple it entirely from reason and reality. Only then can you hate completely without restraint or regret.

It seems that the left has learned how to hate. Hateful speech is in vogue as Democratic leaders ramp up violent rhetoric and political violence rises. The key is to get voters to hate your opponent so much that they forget how much they dislike you.

The irony is crushing. For years, liberals have sought to criminalize hate speech while expanding the range of viewpoints considered to fall within this category. Democratic leaders, from senators to former presidential candidates, have falsely claimed that hate speech is not protected under the First Amendment.

In “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I write about rage and the uncomfortable fact: “What few today want to admit is that they like it. They like the freedom that it affords, the ability to hate and harass without a sense of responsibility.” Rage is addictive, and it is contagious.

What rage-addicts cannot tolerate are those who cling to residual impulses of decency or humanity. In an age of rage, reason is viewed as a reactionary tendency.

This week, Bravo star and liberal podcast host Jennifer Welch praised footage of a “No Kings” protester celebrating the death of Charlie Kirk, holding her up as an example for all liberals.

In the clip, the elderly woman said, “Charlie Kirk is horrible. Yes. I’m glad he’s not here.” When pressed if she was actually happy that the husband and father of two had been murdered, the woman said “Yes…because he was horrible on the campuses. Horrible person.”

After playing the clip, Welch laughed with joy and declared, “So listen up, Democratic establishment. You can either jump on board with this s—, or we’re coming after you in the same way that we come after MAGA. Period.”

Celebrities like Jamie Lee Curtis certainly got that message. The actress was facing a social and professional meltdown after openly mourning Kirk’s death in a podcast interview. “I disagreed with him on almost every point I ever heard him say,” she said. “But I believe he was a man of faith, and I hope in that moment when he died, that he felt connected to his faith, even though his ideas were abhorrent to me.”

It appeared to be a moment of weakness that briefly overrode wokeness. Curtis quickly found herself persona non grata in Hollywood, as an angry liberal mob began to circle her. Curtis quickly saw the light and effectively retracted her fleeting expression of humanity, claiming it had been “mistranslated.” It is said that in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. But that does not apply if you then gouge out your own eye. Now fully and comfortably blinded by her own hand, Curtis is back as a member of good standing in Hollywood.

Internationally, the left has pushed for criminalizing the speech of those with opposing views as hateful and harmful. UNESCO works off a definition of hate speech as including “pejorative or discriminatory language with reference to a person or a group on the basis of who they are, in other words, based on their religion, ethnicity, nationality, race, color, descent, gender or other identity factor.” This includes “scapegoating, stereotyping, stigmatization and the use of derogatory language” based on any “identity factor.”

Countries are also “required to prohibit” speech tied to “conspiracy theories, disinformation and denial and distortion of historical events.”

In the past, some leftists have included political criticism or parodies of their leaders as hate speech. For example, when a rodeo clown, Tuffy Gessling, donned a President Barack Obama mask at the Missouri State Fair as part of a skit years ago, the response was calls for his arrest. The President of the Missouri chapter of the NAACP, Mary Radliff, insisted that it constituted criminal hate speech.

But things have changed. The left has now discovered the thrill of uninhibited hate.

Recently, in Chicago, elementary school teacher Lucy Martinez was shown on video reacting to an image of Kirk by mockingly making a gesture akin to being shot in the neck, mimicking how Kirk had been assassinated.

Another educator, Wilbur Wright College Adult Education Manager Moises Bernal, screamed to a crowd that “ICE agents gotta get shot and wiped out.” Bernal told the crowd, “You gotta grab a gun!” and “We gotta turn around the guns on this fascist system!”

In academia, hateful speech has long been a way to establish one’s bona fides as a faculty member. By attacking and excluding others, you reaffirm your own protected status.

Faculty have thrilled their colleagues and students by talking about “detonating white people,” abolishing white people,  calling for Republicans to suffer,  strangling police officers, celebrating the death of conservatives, calling for the killing of Trump supporters, and supporting the murder of conservative protesters.

Even school board members have referred to taking faculty “to the slaughterhouse” for questioning diversity, equity and inclusion policies.

Last week, Democratic strategist James Carville went on a hate-filled rant, to the delight of his podcast audience. He declared that anyone supporting Trump and the Republicans will be treated like collaborators in World War II who were publicly abused and paraded by mobs.

“You know what we do with collaborators?” he said. “I think these corporations [funding White House renovations] — my fantasy dream is that this nightmare ends in 2029 and I think we ought to have radical things. I think they all ought to have their heads shaven, they should be put in orange pajamas and they should be marched down Pennsylvania Avenue and the public should be invited to spit on them.”

Carville later repeated the call that “The universities, the corporations, the law firms, all of these collaborators should be shaved, pajamaed and spit on.”

For years, Democratic leaders have given their base the license for such blind rage by calling Republicans “Nazis” and claiming that democracy will die unless their opponents are stopped.

The effect has been transformative across the party. In the current race for Virginia Attorney General, Democratic nominee Jay Jones admitted to sending text messages expressing the desire to kill a political opponent, “piss on the grave” of a dead Republican, and kill his children, whom he dismissed as “little fascists,” in their mother’s arms.

There was a time when such a candidate would be denounced by those on the ticket from his party and made a nonentity in politics. Instead, the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Abigail Spanberger (who had previously told her supporters to “Let your rage fuel you”), has refused to withdraw her endorsement. Moreover, the race remains close, with most Democratic voters still planning to cast their ballots for him.

It is a lesson many hope will take hold in the midterm elections. Like Queen Elizabeth, these voters have overcome all inhibitions and can now teach others “how to curse.”

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of the bestselling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 17:40

Trump Considering Menu Of Venezuela Attack Options, Including Oil-Field Seizures

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Trump Considering Menu Of Venezuela Attack Options, Including Oil-Field Seizures

Though Donald Trump campaigned on pledges to end America’s endless wars and regime change campaigns, the White House has now assembled a list of potential military attacks on Venezuela, with the president and senior officials evaluating the associated risks of each option, the New York Times reported on Tuesday. Those options include the seizure of oil fields or a targeted ousting of President Nicolás Maduro. 

In a parallel undertaking, the Department of Justice is evaluating legal rationales for the various options, with an eye on justifying unilateral action by the president without congressional authorization for the use of military force. According to the Times‘ sources, those rationales would likely center on the allegation that Maduro and top officials are working for Cartel de los Soles, which the administration has imaginatively designated a “narcoterrorist” group. Under that pretext, the DOJ would say Maduro is a fair military target, negating various US prohibitions on assassinations of foreign heads of state.   

In pushing for regime change in Venezuela, long-time interventionist Marco Rubio seems to be the second Trump administration’s version of John Bolton 

Unsurprisingly, one of the leading champions of aggressive action is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a long-time hawk whose selection by Trump caused widespread unease among the president’s non-interventionist supporters. Along with Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, Marco is pushing for nothing less than Maduro’s ouster, the Times reported. 

Over the past two months, the United States has engaged in 16 airstrikes on boats off Venezuela that the White House claimed were transporting drugs to America. Critics including Sen. Rand Paul say the boats lacked the range to do that. Sixty-seven people have reportedly been killed in the strikes. According to the Times, the range of new military options under consideration include: 

  • Airstrikes against military facilities to sap Maduro’s support from the country’s armed forces. Opponents argue that such strikes may instead galvanize the military’s bond with Maduro.   
  • Using elite units like Delta Force or SEAL Team 6 to seize or kill Maduro himself
  • Tasking counterterrorism forces with seizing oil fields and related infrastructure, along with air fields

Trump himself is said to be less gung ho about escalation, with his hesitancy reportedly springing from two concerns: Worries about putting US service-members in peril, and fear of a humiliating failure. His rhetoric about Venezuela has veered back and forth over recent weeks — from hinting in mid-October that US military engagement might advance from blowing up alleged drug traffickers in boats to hitting targets on land, to telling 60 Minutes this week that he doubts the US is on a path to war with Venezuela. “I doubt it,” he told Norah O’Donnell. “I don’t think so, but they’ve been treating us very badly, not only on drugs — they’ve dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country that we didn’t want.” 

Last weekend, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon was amassing forces in the southern Caribbean, comprising 10,000 soldiers and Marines and 6,000 sailors, along with eight Navy ships, a special ops vessel, and an attack submarine. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is en route, along with three more ships. The Marines conducted landing drills on Puerto Rico over the weekend, and engineers are rehabilitating the old Roosevelt Roads naval base there.  

Russia has said it’s closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest crude oil reserves and is more than twice the size of Iraq. Maduro has reportedly requested military assistance from Moscow. It’s unknown whether Russia — which already has its and full with the war in Ukraine — intends to bolster Venezuela’s defenses. Arming a country within the US sphere of influence could be a fitting counter to the West’s engagement in Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, as the Trump White House contemplates America’s newest regime-change campaign, we’re reminded of what Tom Woods famously said: “No matter who you vote for, you get John McCain.” 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 17:20

Median Age For First-Time Home Buyer Hits 40, A Record High

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Median Age For First-Time Home Buyer Hits 40, A Record High

Authored by Brett Rowland via The Center Square,

The median age for a first-time home buyer just hit 40, a record high, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors. 

The median buyer age increased to a peak of 59 years, up from 56 the previous year. The median age of first-time buyers increased to 40 this year from 38 the previous year, while the typical age of repeat buyers also rose to 62 from 61. First-time homebuyers decreased to 21% of the market share, down from 24% last year. That marks the lowest share since NAR began collecting the data in 1981. Before the Great Recession, the historical norm was 40%. The report noted the division in the housing market.

“In the 1980s, the typical first-time home buyer was in their late 20s,” according to NAR’s 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. “The housing market remains divided between an all-time high of all-cash home buyers and an all-time low of first-time buyers.” 

Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said the implications are “staggering.”

“The historically low share of first-time buyers underscores the real-world consequences of a housing market starved for affordable inventory,” she said.

“The share of first-time buyers in the market has contracted by 50% since 2007 – right before the Great Recession. The implications for the housing market are staggering. Today’s first-time buyers are building less housing wealth and will likely have fewer moves over a lifetime as a result.”

Twenty-four percent of all buyers had children under the age of 18 living at home, a historically low percentage. That’s down from 27% last year and from 58% in 1985. This year, 11% of home buyers had one child, 9% had two children, and 5% had three or more children. Thirty-two percent of first-time buyers and 22% of repeat buyers had children under the age of 18. 

Seventy-six percent of all buyers had no children under the age of 18 living at home, up from 73% last year. 

“Unfolding in the housing market is a tale of two cities,” Lautz said. “We’re seeing buyers with significant housing equity making larger down payments and all-cash offers, while first-time buyers continue to struggle to enter the market.”

White people were more likely to purchase homes than members of other racial groups. Eighty-four percent of recent home buyers identified their ethnicity as White or Caucasian. Another 7% identified as Hispanic/Latino, 6% of recent buyers identified as Black/African American, 4% identified as Asian/Pacific Islander, and 3% identified as a different ethnicity.

Delaying home ownership can cost equity.

“For generations, access to homeownership has been the primary way Americans build wealth and the cornerstone of the American Dream,” said Shannon McGahn, NAR executive vice president and chief advocacy officer. “Delayed or denied homeownership until age 40 instead of 30 can mean losing roughly $150,000 in equity on a typical starter home.”

She said more housing was needed.

“Today, we must focus on policies that address the root cause of the affordability crisis: inadequate housing supply,” McGahn said. “That means both unlocking existing inventory and enabling new construction. We need solutions that encourage more owners to sell, revitalize underused properties, streamline local zoning and permitting barriers, and modernize construction methods to build more homes faster and more affordably. These common sense reforms make homes more affordable, restore opportunity, and help revive the dream of homeownership for generations to come.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 17:00

Democrat Election Victories Fail To Spark Mass Mobilization Around White House

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Democrat Election Victories Fail To Spark Mass Mobilization Around White House

The longest U.S. government shutdown in history certaintly hurt Republicans, as Democrats scored victories in Tuesday’s elections, including socialist Zohran Mamdani becoming New York City’s next mayor, and Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill winning their respective gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. However, none of that momentum rolled into the Democratic Party’s color revolution-style operation on Wednesday to surround the White House under the banner “The Trump Fascist Regime Must Go Now.”

Refuse Fascism, a “No Kings” partner funded by dark-money NGOs, planned sentiment-shaping operations aimed at swaying public opinion and undermining the Trump administration ahead of the 2026 midterm cycle. One might have expected, given the momentum from last night’s election results, that this front group of unhinged leftist boomers would have managed to rally more supporters out of the retirement homes – but like the last No Kings protest, it fell entirely flat… 

All protesters were holding the same professionally made sign. Also, ‘Grantifa’ was spotted, again… 

Folks are figuring out that the Democratic Party’s protests are far from organic; in fact, they appear funded by Arabella Network, Soros Network, Gates Foundation, Ford Foundation, Tides Foundation, Rockefeller Network, Singham Network, and many others. Investigative researchers Peter Schweizer and Seamus Bruner of the Government Accountability Institute called the protest industrial complex nothing more than “Riot, Inc.,” and it is the ‘Deep State-supported’ engine to overthrow Trump.

Given how coordinated many of these protests appear, it’s worth examining who supports these far-left candidates, no other than…

The timing of today’s protest – just one day after the elections- appeared aimed at revving up post-election momentum into public demonstrations, but the effort largely failed to gain traction.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 16:40

US Household Debt Hits Record $18.6 Trillion As Student Loan Defaults Explode

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US Household Debt Hits Record $18.6 Trillion As Student Loan Defaults Explode

The NY Fed published its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

Surprising exactly no-one, the report showed that total household debt increased by $197 billion (1%) in Q3 2025, to a new record high of $18.59 trillion. split between $13.5 trillion in housing debt and $5.1 trillion in non-housing debt.

“Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.” 

Some details:

  • Mortgage balances grew by $137 billion in the third quarter and totaled $13.07 trillion at the end of September 2025.
    • Mortgage delinquency rate rose to 0.83% from 0.82% prior quarter
  • Credit card balances rose by $24 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.23 trillion.
    • Delinquency rate at 12.41%, highest since 2011
  • Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66 trillion.
  • Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $11 billion to $422 billion.
  • Student loan balances rose by $15 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion.

In total, non-housing balances rose by $49 billion, a 1.0% increase from Q2 2025. 

Taking a closer look we find that…  

  • The pace of mortgage originations increased with $512 billion newly originated in Q3 2025.

The only silver lining in the report is that housing debt levels and delinquencies have stabilized: “Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” Donghoon Lee, an economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in a press release accompanying the figures. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.”

While that is true, let’s see what happens to the US housing market once the avalanche starts, tipped off the by scramble to sell everything in the mecca of Capitalism, New York City, which is now controlled by a communist. 

Moving on: 

  • There was $184 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the third quarter, a small dip from the $188 billion observed in Q2 2025.

  • Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $94 billion, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter.
  • Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $8 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

Of course, with rising debt, come rising delinquencies, and in the case of student debt, absolutely explosive ones.

As the NY Fed writes, aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in Q3 2025, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency were mixed with credit card debt and student loans increasing, while all other debt types saw decreases.

Transitions into delinquency (30+ days)…

… and serious delinquency (90+ days) increased across all debt types.

Total consumer bankruptcies jumped to 141,600 in Q3, the highest since the covid crash year of 2020. 

Taking a closer look at the ground zero of the current consumption crisis, namely student Loans, where outstanding debt stood at $1.65 trillion in Q3 2025.  

And the punchline: missed federal student loan payments that were not previously reported to credit bureaus between Q2 2020 and Q4 2024 are now appearing in credit reports. Consequently, student loan delinquency rates have continued to surge after a sharp rise in the first half of 2025. In Q3 2025, 9.4% of aggregate student debt was reported as 90+ days delinquent or in default, as compared to 7.8% in Q1 2025 and 10.2% in Q2 2025. Also of note in the chart below, the credit card serious delinquency rate is actually creeping up even faster, and hit 12.41%, the highest since 2011.

And the most remarkable observation: over 20% of all student debt by those aged 50 and over (!) is effectively in default (technically it is still delinquent, but if millions haven’t made even a token effort to repay it in 90 days, one can safely classify it as in default).

That’s millions of potential consumers whose credit rating is about to get obliterated and who will not have access to credit cards or other debt forms for a long time. 

More in the full New York Fed presentation.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 16:35

Abrupt Sentiment Shift Rocks Gen Z: Restaurants Warn Of Spending Drop As Student Loan “Default Cliff” Arrives

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Abrupt Sentiment Shift Rocks Gen Z: Restaurants Warn Of Spending Drop As Student Loan “Default Cliff” Arrives

The Trump administration faces a worsening macroeconomic backdrop for younger, lower- and middle-income consumers, burdened by student debt, costly auto loans, high apartment rents, and depleted savings amid a persistently high interest rate environment. 

Early signs of financial strain emerged at the tail end of the summer, outlined in our note:

We’ve been tracking this alarming trend, which was reinforced by the latest warning from Goldman Delta One, Rich Privorotsky, who has gone “Defcon 1” on the rapidly deteriorating consumer.

Early signs of strain have emerged across the restaurant and casual dining segment, where management teams are flagging a noticeable pullback in discretionary spending among younger consumers. This cohort is increasingly shifting from dining out to at-home consumption, opting for groceries over restaurants as they can no longer justify $8 Starbucks coffee and $15 Chipotle burritos.

Last week, Goldman’s Consumer specialist Scott Feiler published a red alert on “The Shifting Health of the US Consumer,” warning of acute deterioration among the US middle class. 

Feiler followed up the warning with a weekend note that said, “Something has clearly changed with the consumer. Commentary from restaurants and grocers last week made that clear.” 

He noted that consumer stocks are massive underperformers year-to-date (Restaurant group -21% YTD, Housing -7% YTD, Retail -3% YTD). 

However, he said, “It is worth noting that November is the best month for Consumer Discretionary of the year.  The last 5 years, the group is +8.4% during November, on average, with an 80% hit rate.  It is the largest outperformance month vs the market, on average, as well.” 

Consumer Discretionary (GSXUCOND Index) Average Price Action By Month. November is The Strongest Month of the Year on an Absolute & Relative Basis.

Feiler previously noted that more companies are warning of signs of a slowdown across the consumer space, with weakness mainly across middle-income consumers, particularly those aged 25 to 35. The brunt of this has been observed across the restaurant space: 

There’s been increasing chatter about the notable negative shift in sentiment among younger consumers, which happened quite abruptly. We spoke with a senior analyst at one of the world’s largest U.S.-based beverage companies who attributed the slowdown to tariffs. However, we disagree and believe the actual shock was the student loan “default cliff” that hit in late summer.

There are about 5.3 million student loan borrowers in default, and another 4.3 million borrowers are in “late-stage delinquency,” or between 181 and 270 days late on their payments, according to a recent Congressional Research Service report based on Education Department data. Payments 270 days past due are considered in default.

We don’t disagree that a slowing jobs market and tariffs are compounding pressures on consumers, but the unfolding mess tied to the student loan default cliff hitting younger borrowers is clearly a major driver behind the sharp shift in sentiment.

Given that Democrats have shifted so far to the left by fully embracing socialism and a sprinkle of Marxism, promising those who vote for them free bus rides, government-run supermarkets, and other free stuff, the question becomes how the Trump administration will win some of these youngsters struggling to survive. We do note the Trump administration recently offered to bail out farmers with tariff revenues… The admin should start looking at the kids ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/05/2025 – 15:40