Magnitude 7.2 Quake Strikes Off Japan, Triggers Tsunami Alert
A powerful earthquake struck offshore along Japan’s northern coast near Aomori and Hokkaido just moments ago.
Japan’s Meteorological Agency has issued a tsunami alert, warning that water surges could reach up to 3 meters (about 10 feet) along parts of the northeastern coast.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told reporters that citizens in the affected areas must continue moving to higher ground following the magnitude 7.2 earthquake.
#Tsunami The U.S. Geological Survey recorded a magnitude of 7.6.
A tsunami warning has been issued for the northeast coast of Japan, specifically in the prefectures of Hokkaido, Aomori, and Iwate.
Authorities have warned of a possible tsunami wave height of up to 3 meters. pic.twitter.com/Uvl8u51Q4u
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and several other senior U.S. officials have criticized the internet policies of the European Union (EU), likening them to censorship, after the governing bloc last week levied Elon Musk’s social media platform X with a $140 million fine for breaching its online content rules.
On Dec. 5, EU tech regulators fined X 120 million euros (about $140 million) following a two-year investigation under the Digital Services Act, concluding that the social platform had breached multiple transparency obligations, including the “deceptive design of its ‘blue checkmark,’ the lack of transparency of its advertising repository, and the failure to provide access to public data for researchers.”
The EU accused X of converting its verified badges into a paid feature without sufficient identity checks, arguing that this deceived users into believing the accounts were authentic and exposed them to fraud, manipulation, and impersonation.
This meant the platform had failed to meet the Digital Services Act’s accessibility and detail standards, leaving out key information that prevented efforts to track coordinated disinformation, illicit activities, and election interference, according to the EU.
Even before the EU’s fine was announced, U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggested it amounted to punishing X for “not engaging in censorship.”
Rumors swirling that the EU commission will fine X hundreds of millions of dollars for not engaging in censorship. The EU should be supporting free speech not attacking American companies over garbage.
On Dec. 5, Rubio wrote in a post on X that the fine was not “just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments.”
“The days of censoring Americans online are over,” Rubio wrote.
The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments.
On Dec. 6, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said the EU’s policies are threatening the trans-Atlantic partnership.
“The nations of Europe cannot look to the US for their own security at the same time they affirmatively undermine the security of the US itself through the (unelected, undemocratic, and unrepresentative) EU. This fine is just the tip of the iceberg,” he wrote on X.
In a follow-up post, Landau said his recent trip to Brussels for NATO’s ministerial meeting left him feeling that there is a “glaring inconsistency between [the United States’] relations with NATO and the EU.”
“When these countries wear their NATO hats, they insist that Transatlantic cooperation is the cornerstone of our mutual security,” he said.
“But when these countries wear their EU hats, they pursue all sorts of agendas that are often utterly adverse to US interests and security—including censorship. … This inconsistency cannot continue.”
My recent trip to Brussels for the @NATO Ministerial meeting left me with one overriding impression: the US has long failed to address the glaring inconsistency between its relations with NATO and the EU. These are almost all the same countries in both organizations. When these…
U.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder called the EU’s fine on X “regulatory overreach targeting American innovation.”
The EU also charged Meta and TikTok with breaching its Digital Services Act transparency guidelines in October and then accused Temu, a Chinese online marketplace, of violating guidelines intended to prevent sales of illegal products.
TikTok, however, was able to avoid the fines levied on X by making concessions to the EU.
Meta’s Facebook and Instagram were accused of failing to offer a user-friendly and easily accessible procedure for reporting illegal content, including child sexual abuse material and terrorist content, which the parent company denied.
Then on Dec. 4, the European Commission said it had opened an antitrust investigation into Meta to determine whether the company’s policy blocking third-party artificial intelligence tools on WhatsApp violates the EU’s competition regulations.
Helmut Brandstätter, a member of the European Parliament, shot back at Vance’s post condemning the EU’s decision to fine X.
“There is No censorship in Europe, and everybody has to follow our rules,” he wrote on X on Dec. 5.
“[U.S. President Donald Trump] fights the free press, suing newspapers and TV stations. So leave us alone.”
In response, Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers posted a video to X in which she referenced the German woman who was recently given a harsher jail sentence than a convicted rapist after calling the latter a “disgraceful rapist pig.”
The woman was convicted of insults and criminal threats under German law and sentenced to a weekend in jail, while the rapist received a suspended sentence without prison time because of his age.
“So which is it, Mr. Bronstetter, is there no censorship in Europe? Or do we all have to follow your rules?” Rogers said.
Trump Readies “One-Rule” Executive Order Aimed At Centralizing AI Regulation
President Trump continues to argue that a single, national set of rules, otherwise known as a “One Rulebook,” governing the artificial intelligence industry is essential, rather than a patchwork of state-by-state regulations that would slow development amid a superpower race with China. This comes as Trump’s national strategy to build out data centers, revitalize the industrial base, restart rare-earth mining and refining operations, and upgrade power grids becomes vital to maintaining America’s tech dominance in the years ahead.
“There must be only One Rulebook if we are going to continue to lead in AI,” Trump wrote on Truth Social just moments ago.
He continued, “We are beating ALL COUNTRIES at this point in the race, but that won’t last long if we are going to have 50 States, many of them bad actors, involved in RULES and the APPROVAL PROCESS. THERE CAN BE NO DOUBT ABOUT THIS! AI WILL BE DESTROYED IN ITS INFANCY!“
Trump noted that the “One Rule Executive Order will be signed this week,” adding, “You can’t expect a company to get 50 Approvals every time they want to do something. THAT WILL NEVER WORK!“
The Trump administration believes that allowing 50 different states to create their own AI rules and approval processes would paralyze development, slow innovation, and ultimately be detrimental to the nation.
Last month, Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Some States are even trying to embed DEI ideology into AI models, producing ‘Woke AI’ (Remember Black George Washington?). We MUST have one Federal Standard instead of a patchwork of 50 State Regulatory Regimes.”
“If we don’t, then China will easily catch us in the AI race. Put it in the NDAA, or pass a separate Bill, and nobody will ever be able to compete with America,” the president warned.
Last Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reiterated Trump’s points on the need for a national set of rules, noting that state-by-state AI regulation would harm the industry’s growth.
“State-by-state AI regulation would drag this industry into a halt and it would create a national security concern, as we need to make sure that the United States advances AI technology as quickly as possible,” Huang said.
Given the sheer incompetence of Democrats who have run blue states into the ground, exemplified most recently by the massive welfare fraud by Somalis under Tim Walz’s watch, the Trump administration believes a blanket federal approach to ensuring AI development is the best plan of action to secure the nation’s technological advantage over the rest of the world… and the man at the center of AI – Jensen Huang – agrees vehemently: “A federal AI regulation is the wisest.”
Confluent Shares Erupt After Report Of $11 Billion IBM Takeover Bid
Confluent shares skyrocketed in premarket trading in New York after a Wall Street Journal report revealed that IBM is in talks to buy the data infrastructure company for $11 billion. The deal could be announced as soon as today.
*IBM acquiring Confluent in $11 billion all-cash deal
*IBM: Confluent Deal Represents Enterprise Value of $11 Billion
Confluent is a data-infrastructure software company built around Apache Kafka, an open-source technology created at LinkedIn and later spun out. It offers a streaming data platform that lets companies move and process data in real time rather than in slow batches, which is vital for AI and machine-learning pipelines.
A successful deal would be IBM’s largest in years, furthering its pivot toward AI and cloud after the $6.4 billion HashiCorp purchase last year. IBM has posted increasing consulting revenue, slashed thousands of jobs to restructure its workforce, and ramped up quantum computing development.
Shares of Confluent surged 28% in premarket trading. The stock is down 17% on the year as of Friday’s close and has been range-bound since the second half of 2022.
The potential deal shows how IBM is continuing to pivot from its slow-growing legacy business and reshape itself around AI and quantum computing. It wants to be viewed as a serious player in AI infrastructure rather than just another legacy enterprise software vendor.
Futures Rise For 10th Day In Past 11 With Fed Rate Cut Looming
With just 17 trading sessions left in 2025, stock futures edge higher again and are on pace for 10 gains in the past 11 days. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% as of 5:32 a.m. in New York, with Nasdaq 100 contracts +0.3%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly unchanged except for a -1.3% decline in TSLA on a downgrade from Morgan Stanley. Most Asian markets clock firm start to the week, while European markets are mixed. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher and the USD is flat after reversing an earlier drop. Commodities are mixed: oil and most base metals are down small, while precious metals are higher. Over the weekend, there were several corporate headlines: (i) MSFT is considering shift custom chip business to Broadcom from Marvell (The Information). (ii) Trump warned the Netflix-Warner deal may post antitrust problem (BBG); (iii) IBM close to buy Confluent. A Fed cut on Wednesday looks like a done deal, but the trajectory after that is less clear. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka warned that the recent stock rally could stall after the decision. The Fed is also expected to restart “Reserve Management Purchases” ($45BN per month), which according to BofA’s Mark Cabana is not priced in; we also get earnings from Oracle and Broadcom, which may provide an end-of-year test for the AI narrative.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed, with Tesla an outlier to the downside following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley from OW to EW (Amazon +0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet -0.1%, Microsoft +0.07%, Meta -0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla -1.3%)
Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) falls 3% after saying that the FDA has not yet issued a regulatory decision on the supplemental new drug application for mitapivat in thalassemia.
Carvana (CVNA) rises 9%, CRH (CRH) gains 7% and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) climbs 1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said they will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens Dec. 22.
Confluent (CFLT) is up 28% after the the Wall Street Journal reported International Business Machines Corp. is in advanced negotiations to acquire the data infrastructure firm.
CoreWeave (CRWV) drops 5% after announcing a $2 billion convertible senior notes offering.
Fluence Energy (FLNC) falls 4% after Mizuho Securities analyst Maheep Mandloi cut the recommendation to underperform, saying data-center opportunities are still early-stage.
ITT (ITT) slips 3% after plans to sell 7 million shares to help fund a portion of its SPX Flow deal.
Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) rises 29% after the drug developer announced positive results from a Phase 1b clinical trial of KT-621.
Tesla (TSLA) shares fall 1.4% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley downgrades the electric-car maker to equal-weight from overweight, saying non-auto catalysts priced into the stock.
In corporate news, Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. IBM is in advanced negotiations to acquire data infrastructure firm Confluent for around $11 billion, the WSJ reported. Robinhood is set to enter the Indonesian market after signing deals to acquire two local brokerages. Unilever spinoff The Magnum Ice Cream Co. will start trading in New York today as part of a three-location listing.
US stocks have rebounded in recent weeks after some Fed officials – and especially vice chair John Williams – signaled they intend to cut rates for a third straight time on Wednesday. Still, the advance has been jittery as uncertainty over the pace of easing in 2026 and wariness about the sustainability of an AI-driven rally temper sentiment.
Investors are now looking ahead to 2026. Over three-quarters of asset managers polled in an informal Bloomberg survey are positioning for a risk-on environment through 2026. Among strategists, Oppenheimer AM’s John Stoltzfus is calling for an 18% rally in the S&P 500 next year, becoming the most optimistic forecaster among those tracked by Bloomberg for a third year running. Still, there are some nuances. Investors are rotating out of the tech behemoths that drove virtually all of this year’s rally in the S&P 500 and are snapping up shares of risky small companies and old-economy transportation names. Yardeni Research now recommends effectively going underweight the Mag 7 versus the rest of the S&P 500, expecting a shift in earnings growth ahead.
For stocks, interviews with 39 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe showed that a vast majority of allocators were still positioning for a risk-on environment through next year. The thrust of the bet is that resilient global growth, further developments in artificial intelligence, accommodative policy and fiscal stimulus will deliver outsize returns.
Fabien Benchetrit, head of target allocation for France and southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said he remains bullish on 2026 but isn’t planning to increase his stock exposure before year-end. “Like other market participants, we’ve had a good year and it doesn’t make much sense to do it when liquidity typically dries up in the last two weeks of December,” he said. “In terms of AI, 2025 was all about capex, but 2026 will be about these investments delivering revenues, profits and productivity gains.”
Unease that inflation remains too high has also caused divisions among Fed officials, in a rift that’s been exacerbated by the lack of fresh data during the shutdown. After this week’s likely cut, money markets are leaning toward two more moves by the end of 2026, down from three signaled barely a week ago.
While a resilient economy, seasonal support and catch-up positioning are supporting stocks, key risks still loom for investors, said Daniel Murray, deputy chief investment officer and global head of research at EFG Asset Management. Those include “that the Fed is less dovish than investors currently assume,” Murray said, along with “a delayed tariff impact that sees inflation higher for longer and cracks starting to widen in the labor market.”
“The tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be critical,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid. “We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility.”
The Stoxx 600 is little changed as gains in industrial and insurance shares are offset by losses in consumer products and chemicals. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
Kloeckner shares climb as much as 27% in Frankfurt, the most since 2008, after the firm said Worthington Steel was conducting due diligence with a view to a potential takeover of the German metals company.
Galderma shares rise as much as 4.5%, touching a record high, after L’Oreal announced plans to double its stake in the Swiss dermatology firm to 20%.
FlatexDEGIRO shares rise as much as 5.9% after Berenberg raised its price target on the online brokerage firm.
AUTO1 shares rally as much as 5.4% after Jefferies initiated coverage of the digital platform for buying and selling used cars with a buy recommendation.
Absa shares rise as much as 4.8% in Johannesburg, to their highest intraday level on record after the bank said it expects mid-single digit revenue growth in 2025, with stronger growth in non-interest income than net interest income.
GEA Group shares sink as much as 5%, to their lowest level since April, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the equipment supplier for the food processing industry to underweight.
Ferrari shares fall as much as 3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the Italian luxury car maker to equal-weight on account of its decision to strictly limit volume growth until 2030.
Embracer falls as much as 33% as shares in the Swedish game company traded without rights to the upcoming spinoff of its Coffee Stain Group subsidiary.
Schott Pharma shares drop as much as 6.8% to the lowest level on record after analysts at Barclays and Deutsche Bank downgraded their ratings on the stock, saying the 2026 fiscal year will be a “transition year” for the German pharma packaging company.
Earlier in the session, Chinese indexes rally after local media reports leverage limit hike for brokerages, and the Politburo pledges more proactive macroeconomic policies. The ChiNext soars more than 3% and the CSI 300 gains about 1.2%. Topix, Taiex and Kospi are also in the green. Hang Seng slides almost 1%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. EUR/USD rose to session highs after ECB’s Schnabel said she is comfortable with investor bets that the next interest-rate move will be an increase. The yen eases back to around 155.50/USD. Offshore yuan stays marginally stronger after a strong trade report.
In rates, treasuries outperform their European counterparts but are still in the red. US 10-year borrowing costs climb 2 bps to 4.15%. Europe led declines in global bond markets after the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel became the first senior official to suggest with any certainty that European rates have reached a floor, and she is comfortable with investor bets that the next interest-rate move will be an increase. German 10-year yields rise 4 bps to 2.84%. Gilts also drop, pushing UK 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.52%. Japanese bond yields rose across the curve after data showed that the economy shrank in the three months through September, giving some justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package announced last month. The figures add an element of complexity to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision next week, but likely won’t derail it from its gradual hiking path. Aussie bonds remain heavy as 10-year yield hits a two-year high ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision. JGB futures are tightly rangebound following lackluster GDP report.
In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 1% to near $59.50 a barrel. Brent crude futures pause around $63.90 and gold rises back above $4,210 an ounce. Spot gold adds $10 while Bitcoin rises 1.9% to around $92,000.
Today’s economic calendar includes November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
DAX +0.2%
CAC 40 little changed
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.15%
VIX +0.8 points at 16.22
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1211.98
euro little changed at $1.1652
WTI crude -0.9% at $59.54/barrel
Top Overnight News
Donald Trump said Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery may pose antitrust concerns, warning that the combined entity’s market share “could be a problem.” He confirmed he met with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently. BBG
Trump plans to unveil a $12 billion farm aid package today, including one-time payments for crop farmers hit by low prices amid slow Chinese purchases. Advisers are also weighing measures to curb soaring beef prices, including reopening the border to Mexican cattle. WSJ
Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum directing the HHS to fast-track a comprehensive evaluation of the vaccine schedules from other countries around the world, and better align the US vaccine schedule.
White House said it will establish food supply chain security task forces to protect competition.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will finish the year with 3% GDP growth.
China’s trade surplus in goods this year topped $1 trillion for the first time, a milestone that underscores the dominance that the country has attained. For the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports increased 5.4% from the year-earlier period to $3.4 trillion, while the country’s imports declined 0.6% over that same stretch to $2.3 trillion. WSJ
China’s annual car sales dropped 8.5% in November in a second straight monthly decline, for their biggest fall in 10 months, data showed on Monday, amid a waning scramble to buy vehicles before government subsidies dwindle at year-end. RTRS
Japan’s real wages shrank for the 10th consecutive month in October, with an uptick in nominal pay falling short of taming relentless consumer inflation, government data showed on Monday.
Thailand has launched air strikes on Cambodia after border clashes that killed on Thai soldier, marking the collapse of a Trump brokered peace deal between the south east Asian neighbors. FT
Industrial production in Europe’s largest economy continued to accelerate in October, with the sector showing further signs of stabilization as it awaits large-scale government investment. October came in at +1.8% M/M (vs. the Street +0.3%). WSJ
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said he planned to present Republican leadership with his health care plan as soon as Sunday night, predicting that the divisive proposal to put money directly in Americans’ health savings accounts could clear the 60-vote threshold needed to pass in the Senate. Politico
IBM is in advanced talks to acquire data-infrastructure company Confluent (CFLT) for around $11 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. A deal could be announced as soon as today. WSJ
Following an 11% drawdown this fall, Consumer Discretionary stocks have rebounded by 7% during the past two weeks. The combination of hawkish Fed commentary, weak labor market data, declining consumer sentiment, and downbeat corporate commentary contributed to a sell-off in Consumer Discretionary stocks between early September and mid-November. During the past two weeks, however, consumer stocks have rebounded, with the equal-weight S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 by 2%: Goldman
Trade/Tariffs
US President Trump said we’ll work it out, when asked if he would restart trade talks with Canada, while it was separately reported that the Canadian PM’s office said PM Carney agreed with US President Trump and Mexican President Sheinbaum to keep working together on the trade deal.
USTR said China’s trade commitments are going in the right direction and that they are seen to be in compliance so far.
French President Macron warned that the EU could hit China with tariffs if nothing is done to reduce its widening trade deficit with the EU, according to Les Echos.
EU is to expand the carbon border tax to garden tools and washing machines, as it seeks to close loopholes in the law to prevent carbon-intensive imports, according to FT.
US Embassy in India said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker will visit New Delhi and Bengaluru, India, on December 7th-11th.
German Foreign Minister said a lot of work is still needed to persuade China to issue general export licenses for rare earths.
China’s Vice Commerce Minister said he welcomes EU automakers to continue to invest in China. Urges Germany and the EU auto association to push the EU Commission to resolve the EV anti-subsidy case. On Nexperia, he said the root cause of chaos in the global semiconductor supply chains lies in the Netherlands.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following a lack of major macro drivers over the weekend and with markets tentative ahead of this week’s risk events, while participants also digested data, including the latest Chinese trade figures. ASX 200 was subdued amid somewhat mixed trade data from Australia’s largest trading partner and as the RBA kick-started its 2-day policy meeting. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following a slew of mixed data from Japan, including firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and disappointing revisions to Q3 GDP, while sentiment was also clouded by geopolitical tensions after Japan accused Chinese fighter jets of aiming military radar at Japan’s Self-Defence Force jets. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming as gains in tech were overshadowed by losses in the big banks, while participants also digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed.
Top Asian News
China’s Politburo held a meeting on the economy and reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, with fiscal policy being more proactive, while it stated that the economic operation is generally stable and it will implement more active macro policies. Furthermore, it will continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, as well as stabilise employment, markets, and enterprises’ expectations.
Hong Kong held its legislative election on Sunday to elect 90 Legislative Council members from the 161 government-vetted candidates.
Australia Treasurer Chalmers said they will not extend electricity rebates and that the mid-year review will not be a mini budget, while he added that the review will include savings.
BoJ Governor Ueda to attend Japan’s lower house budget committee from 05:35-06:05 GMT on Tuesday, according to a parliamentary source cited by Reuters.
Chinese President Xi held a meeting with non-party members on the economy, according to Xinhua, and said China to stabilise jobs and markets. said 2025 has been unusual and will smoothly meet the main targets. To reinforce economic growth momentum. Economic goals will be achieved this year. To drive reasonable economic growth.
China’s auto industry body CPCA said China sold 2.24mln passenger cars in November, down 8.5% Y/Y; Tesla (TSLA) exported 13,555 China-made vehicles (prev. 35,491 in October).
Indonesian Finance Minister said the nation is to impose a coal export tax near year between 1% and 5%.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) began the morning mixed, with a slight negative bias. Since the open, indices have held an upward bias with some climbing marginally into the green. European sectors are mostly lower. Industrials and Tech hold towards the top of the pile, whilst Real Estate and Media lags a touch. In terms of a key story, BNP Paribas (+0.7%) is to sell its stake in AG insurance to Ageas (+2.2%) for EUR 1.9bln.
Top European News
UK PM Starmer said former Deputy PM Angela Rayner will return to the cabinet after resigning in September, while he described her as “hugely talented”.
Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike. Later on, she also said she would be ready to succeed President Lagarde if she were asked to, via Bloomberg. She said the euro economy is on course to grow above potential despite the headwinds, and the economic outlook has brightened and the downside risks to growth have been reduced significantly, and uncertainty has come down quite quickly, which should further support future economic activity. The global economy and global trade have proven to be more resilient. On inflation, she said it’s in a good place. It’s currently around 2%, and we also project medium-term inflation to be around 2%. Volatile energy prices and related base effects may push headline inflation temporarily below our target. Services inflation has been much stickier than expected. The downward pressure on goods inflation due to a stronger euro, lower energy prices and potential trade diversion from China has been weaker than expected. On policy, she said interest rates are in a good place. Rather comfortable with those expectations of the next move being a rate hike. A first rate hike in June 2026 remains very uncertain.
ECB’s Rehn said the ECB is concerned about central bank independence in the US, via Econostream. Adds that Fed independence is an important issue for “all of us globally”. On an insurance cut, said “we are not in the insurance business, not in December, March or June”. Inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target. German spending to have a “formidable positive impact” on Germany and the Euro area.
ECB’s Rehn said they must be aware of upside and downside inflation risks, while he added that inflation risk is slightly tilted to the downside in the medium-term. Furthermore, he said they should not impose unnecessary bars or floors on policy, and that the position on interest rates is not fixed.
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a change in the ECB’s approach to monetary policy to boost the single market and protect it from the risks of a financial crisis, while he commented that reasserting the value of the European internal market means it can’t let inflation be its sole objective, but also growth and employment.
European Commission may announce a package to support the auto industry on December 16th, according to industry sources.
German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron are set to discuss the fate of the Franco-German fighter jet project FCAS in the week of December 15th, according to an industry source.
Germany’s auto industry body VDA said it expects 2026 registrations to rise 2% to 2.9mln. Electric car sales in Germany to jump 17% to 979k in 2026. Expects the nation to remain the world’s second-largest EV producer in 2026.
French Socialist Party (PS) leader Faure said the party will vote for the French budget’s social security programme.
FX
DXY has now returned to flat territory after being dragged lower, but EUR strength as ECB hawk Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon, according to Bloomberg. Little notable reaction was seen in ECB marking pricing throughout 2026, which remains unchanged for rates throughout the horizon, although the EUR strengthened and EZ yields rose.
The Single Currency was also supported by surprisingly upbeat German Industrial Output data. EUR/USD hit a 1.1672 peak, matching Friday’s high, before waning back towards 1.1650 levels. Subsequently, DXY fell to a 98.79 trough before trimming losses back towards near-99.00.
GBP is subdued by the EUR/GBP cross, which briefly eclipsed its 50 DMA (0.8751) from a 0.8726 low on the back of the aforementioned ECB commentary and data. GBP/USD meanwhile closed around its 200 DMA on Friday and traded below the level (1.3331) throughout most of today’s session. In terms of weekend UK newsflow, Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
Other G10s are largely flat with Antipodeans mixed following the Chinese Trade Balance data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed. Thus, AUD is subdued ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow, whilst NZD is among the better performers as AUD/NZD falls back after meeting resistance at 1.1500.
Fixed Income
USTs are trading lower by a couple of ticks, having held a negative bias throughout the European morning. Nothing really much driving things for US paper this morning, and action appears to be following peers and in a continuation of Friday’s losses. Traders await the FOMC meeting mid-week, where a 25bps cut is widely expected – but likely to be subject to dissent from several board members. Back to price action, USTs are trading within a narrow 112-14 to 112-19 range, with today’s trough a tick below that made on Friday. Further pressure could see a retest of the trough made on 20th November at 112-10+.
Bunds are also pressured, and to a larger magnitude than USTs (but less so than UK paper). The benchmark followed US paper overnight, and held a negative bias, before taking a leg lower on comments via Schnabel. The arch-hawk, speaking on Bloomberg, said that she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon. In an immediate reaction, Bund Mar’26 fell from 127.98 to 127.80 over the course of around 5 minutes, before then extending to a trough of 127.74; from a yield perspective, the 10-year rose 3bps to 2.83%, levels not seen since March. Elsewhere, other ECB members have not impacted assets quite so much, with Rehn suggesting that “inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target.”, via Econostream. And finally on the data front, German Industrial Output M/M rose more than expected; ING’s Brzeski said “there are at least tentative signs of a bottoming out” in the German economy.
Gilts underperform vs peers, and are currently down by around 40 ticks. Price action has been fairly muted this morning, gapped lower at the open and has resided at the bottom end of a 90.90 to 91.11 range. Pressure today in tandem with US/German paper, but with underperformance perhaps explained by ongoing domestic political updates. Focus has been on reports that Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times. Moreover, perhaps some focus on political instability within the Labour Party as PM Starmer floats the return of Angela Rayner. Elsewhere, a KPMG/REC survey showed the UK labour market weakened further in November.
Commodities
WTI and Brent oscillated in a tight USD 59.98-60.27/bbl and USD 63.63-63.94/bbl, respectively, throughout the APAC session. As the European session got underway, benchmarks failed to extend the highs of the APAC session and reversed lower to dip below USD 60/bbl and USD 63.50/bbl, despite a lack of crude-specific newsflow. Currently, benchmarks are extending on session lows as progress on a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remains in focus.
Spot XAU edged higher throughout the APAC session amid a weaker dollar ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, in which the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps at its meeting on Wednesday. XAU hit a low of USD 4191/oz as the APAC session commenced and gradually traded higher to a peak of USD 4219/oz as the European session got underway. Data over the weekend showed that the PBoC increased its gold reserves for a 13th consecutive month.
3M LME Copper extended to a new ATH of USD 11.75k/t as China’s Politburo reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, setting domestic growth as its top economic priority. This comes amid new demand, fuelled by AI infrastructure build and EVs, coming up against a tight global supply. China’s exports also rose in November to 5.9%, compared to the expected 3.8% and the October figure of -1.1%.
UAE Energy Minister said overall demand for energy will increase, fossil fuels will be “a percentage of it”. Adds that natural gas is important and they intend to not only satisfy their local demand but also grow exports of their LNG. Agrees that natural gas demand is more than the projects they are seeing.
Russia’s Kremlin said India buys energy where it is profitable to; as far as Russia understands, India will “continue to do that”.
EU to delay proposals on carbon border tariff and proposals for automotive sector, including Co2 emissions to December 16th, according to a document seen by Reuters.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he will meet with US President Trump this month, while he said they believe there is a path to a workable peace with their Palestinian neighbours and that the sovereign power of security from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean will always remain in Israel’s hands. Furthermore, he said political annexation of the West Bank remains a subject of discussion, and the status quo in the West Bank will remain for the foreseeable future, as well as noted that they are close to the second phase of Trump’s Gaza plan.
Palestinian PM Mustafa said Israel is stepping up the ‘creeping annexation’ of the West Bank and is intensifying efforts to make the West Bank unliveable and drive people out of the occupied territory, according to FT.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister said Hamas is ready to hand over the Gaza administration to the Palestinian committee to advance the Gaza ceasefire deal. He also commented that Hamas disarmament in the first phase of the Gaza deal may not be a realistic and doable objective, while other steps are needed first.
US, Israel and Qatar were reportedly holding a trilateral meeting in New York on Sunday to rebuild relations, according to Axios.
A US official said the US is pushing Ukraine to agree “faster” to the peace plan, according to AFP.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Ukraine’s President Zelensky says no accord so far on Ukraine’s Donbas in US talks, via Bloomberg.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a substantive call with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while he stated they agreed on the next steps and format for talks with America, as well as noted that Ukraine is determined to continue working honestly with the US side in order to bring real peace. Zelensky separately commented that talks with US representatives on a peace plan were constructive but not easy.
Ukrainian military conducted a strike on Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kucherivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and completed the capture of Rivne in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while they carried out a group strike on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure facilities, fuel and energy complexes, and long-range drone complexes.
Russia and China held their third joint anti-missile drills on Russian territory.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s claims about the Japan Self-Defence Force’s dangerous flight are inaccurate, while he added it is very important to gain an understanding of other countries, including the US, regarding Japan’s stance.
Japan is reportedly frustrated at the Trump administration’s silence over the row with China and urged the US to give PM Takaichi more public support, according to FT.
Australia’s Defence Minister Marles said they are deeply concerned about the actions of China following the air incident near Japan, while Marles discussed with Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi common serious concerns about the situation in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Furthermore, they discussed how to work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, while Marles also commented that they want the most productive relationship they can achieve with China.
Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged heavy fire in a border region on Friday.
Thai Army spokesman said their military launched airstrikes in the disputed border area with Cambodia.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said China believes both countries can win from cooperation on the new US defence strategy. Also said it stands ready to work with the US to improve ties and that China will firmly defend its sovereignty.
Rapid Support Forces confirms control of Heglig oil field, the largest oil field in Sudan, according to Sky News Arabia.
Russia’s Kremlin said it welcomed the removal of Russia from the list of US direct threats in the new national security strategy.
Geopolitics: Other
Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said Chinese military planes directed radar at Japan’s self-defence forces twice. It was separately reported that Japanese PM Takaichi said the incident involving Chinese fighter jets directing radar at Japanese planes is extremely regrettable, while she said they will respond calmly and resolutely to the development.
US Event Calendar
November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am
DB’s JIm Reid concludes the overnight wrap
All roads this week will point to Wednesday’s FOMC. Markets and DB expect the Fed to deliver a final and third 25bps rate cut for 2025, making it 6 cuts and 175bps in this easing cycle since September 2024. The decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with dissent anticipated from both hawkish and dovish members. Should four or more officials break ranks, it would mark the largest split since 1992. Beyond the headline move, the tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and the accompanying statement will be critical. We expect Powell to emphasise that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signalling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility ahead of likely softer labour market data due later in December.
Beyond the Fed, the global calendar features several other central bank decisions and important data releases. Maybe tech earnings from Oracle (Wednesday) and Broadcom (Thursday) will be the most interesting, with the two names diverging considerably over the last couple of months. The former is down -34% over this period with the latter only -3% off its all-time-high seen a couple of weeks ago. In terms of central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow, where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, but with a hawkish tilt likely after recent inflation increases. The January 7th inflation data could encourage markets to price in a hike as soon as February. The Bank of Canada follows on Wednesday, with the Swiss National Bank on Thursday with both expected to stay on hold. Canada saw a +16bps rise in 2yr yields on Friday after another strong labour market release with traders now suddenly, and fully, pricing in a hike by October next year. Meanwhile, the SNB are trying to avoid negative rates next year with rates now around zero.
Elsewhere, UK monthly GDP for October will be released on Friday, alongside German industrial production today and trade figures on Tuesday. China inflation is released on Wednesday where our economists expect CPI inflation to rise by 0.5ppt to 0.7% YoY and PPI to improve by 0.2ppt to -1.9% YoY. Nordic inflation prints are also due midweek, with Denmark and Norway publishing November CPI reports. Also watch out for the BoJ Ueda who speaks in London tomorrow ahead of a fascinating BoJ meeting next Friday just as the market winds down for Xmas.
Expanding further on the FOMC now, according to our economist’s preview here, the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) should show only modest revisions. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are likely to be nudged higher, consistent with the October staff update, while inflation projections should be trimmed for this year and next. The unemployment path is expected to remain broadly unchanged. The dot plot should continue to point to one cut per year over the next two years, reinforcing the message that policy is approaching the neutral range (3.5–3.75%). Our economist’s baseline remains that the Fed stays on hold through the first half of 2026, with risks skewed towards another cut in Q1 if labour market weakness persists. Under new leadership later in the year, they anticipate a September cut as disinflation resumes, taking the trough in the fed funds rate to around 3.3%.
While the Fed dominates, a handful of other releases could provide additional nuance. Tomorrow brings combined September–October JOLTS data, offering a backward-looking snapshot of hiring and quits trends. Recent figures have underscored a “low hiring/low firing” dynamic, with private hiring at multi-year lows and quits subdued. Wednesday’s Employment Cost Index for Q3 is forecast at DB to hold steady at +0.9%, keeping annual growth around 3.6%. Thursday rounds out the docket with September trade numbers (-$69.6bn expected vs. -$59.6bn prior) and initial jobless claims (225k vs. 191k), the latter likely to increase after holiday distortions.
Asian equities are relatively quiet ahead of an important week. As I check my screens, the Nikkei is flat, impacted by Japan’s revised Q3 GDP data (details below). In other markets, Chinese stocks are diverging with the Hang Seng (-1.05%) lower, while the CSI (+1.05%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%) are higher, buoyed by better-than-expected China exports and a larger trade surplus compared to the previous month. Additionally, the KOSPI (+0.77%) is also rising. S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.25%) futures are both trading higher.
Returning to China, outbound shipments increased by +5.9% year-on-year in November, surpassing market expectations for +4.0% growth, marking a recovery from an unexpected -1.1% decline in October — the first contraction since March 2024. Imports rose by +1.9% last month, falling short of the anticipated +3.0% increase, as a prolonged housing downturn and rising job insecurity continued to hinder domestic consumption. This growth was an improvement compared to the 1% recorded in October. Elsewhere, in Japan, the revised annualised Q3 growth contraction was reported at -2.3%, compared to an earlier estimate of -1.8% and a market forecast of a -2.0% decline.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP decreased by -0.6%, which is steeper than the initial -0.4% contraction and exceeded the forecast of a -0.5% decline. Separately, real wages fell by -0.7% in October compared to the previous year, a slower decline than the revised -1.3% drop in September, but it extended a losing streak that began in January. Meanwhile, average nominal wages, or total cash earnings, rose by +2.6% year-on-year in October, marking a three-month high that followed a +2.1% increase in the previous month.
In bond markets, yields on the 10-year Australian government bonds are +2.2bps, reaching 4.71%, marking the highest level in two years in anticipation of the RBA meeting tomorrow. New Zealand’s 10-year government bond are +8.8bps. 10 and 30yr JGBs are +2bps and +3bps higher respectively.
Recapping last week now and markets continued to grind higher, with the S&P 500 (+0.31%; +0.19% Friday), NASDAQ (+0.91%; +0.31% Friday), and the STOXX 600 (+0.41%; -0.01% Friday) all edging higher. The Mag-7 (+1.40%; +0.35% Friday) was boosted by strong performances from Tesla (+5.77%; +0.10% Friday) and Meta (+3.93%; +1.80% Friday), the latter on a Bloomberg report of budget cuts up to 30% for its metaverse division. In contrast, Microsoft fell -1.80% (+0.48% Friday) amid a press report of lowered AI sales quotas, which the company subsequently denied. The overall risk-tone saw the VIX volatility index (-0.55pts) fall to a two-month low of 15.41, and credit spreads tighten, with both US IG (-3bps) and HY (-5bps) rallying.
On the data front, we saw mixed US labour market releases, as the ADP report showed US private payrolls falling by 32k in November (vs. +10k expected) driven by highest job losses for small businesses since the pandemic (-120k) but weekly initial jobless claims (191k vs. 220k expected) painted a more robust picture, although Thanksgiving distortion likely dominated. In terms of survey releases, ISM services was slightly stronger than anticipated at 52.6 (vs. 52.0 expected), while its prices paid component fell to a seven-month low of 65.4 (vs. 68.0 expected). And on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (53.3 VS 51.0 expected) rebounded from its November slump as 5-10 year inflation expectations (3.2% vs 3.4% expected) fell to their lowest since January.
While a December Fed rate cut is more than 95% priced, the conflicting data drove a hawkish adjustment further out with the amount of cuts priced by end-26 declining by -9.3bps (-3.4bps Friday). This led to a rise in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield up +7.0bps to 3.56%, while the 10yr saw its biggest weekly sell-off since April (+12.1bps to 4.14%, +3.7bps Friday). Higher yields were also driven by developments in Japan, as comments from BoJ Governor Ueda led investors to anticipate a December rate hike. 10-year JGB yields rose by +13.5bps to a post-2008 high of 1.94% and 30-year yields by +1.5bps to 3.35%, its highest since the tenor was introduced in the late-1990s.
In Europe, 10yr bunds (+10.9bps), OATs (+11.4bps), and BTPs (+8.5bps) joined the global bond sell-off. That came as the Euro Area flash CPI for November was higher than expected at +2.2% (vs. +2.1% expected), while the composite PMI was revised up to 52.8, its highest in two-and-a-half years. The data supported modest equity gains, with the DAX +0.80% higher though the CAC 40 (-0.10%) was marginally lower. European credit spreads were also tighter for both IG (-6bps) and HY (-8bps).
In commodities, Brent crude saw a modest rally of +2.20% to $63.75/bbl, as no concrete plans for a ceasefire in Ukraine emerged. Cryptocurrencies experienced a volatile week. Bitcoin ended the week down -1.88%, but that included a -5.19% move on Monday and +5.97% on Tuesday. Gold was down -0.98% to $4,198/oz following an almost 5% rally the previous week.
WTI moved back above its 50-day moving average Friday and is fighting to hold above $60 this morning.
A market that spent weeks obsessing over punishing oversupply is now being forced to respect a technical line that encourages short covering rather than fresh selling.
As Bloomberg macro strategist, Michael Ball writes, a return to a war premium is warranted as a genuine peace deal between the Ukraine and Russia remains elusive. Ukrainian negotiators are headed into another round of talks in Florida, while Russia is already objecting to parts of the US-backed plan and waiting on a fresh readout from the discussions.
Traders are watching the process for any sign of a settlement that could eventually ease sanctions and boost Russian supply as covered by colleagues Grant Smith, Alex Longley and Will Kubzansky. However, with Ukraine still striking targets like the Syzran refinery and Temryuk port and Washington lobbying Europe to tighten the screws on Moscow’s frozen assets, a deal looks far away.
At the same time, the technical picture has turned more supportive.
WTI has pushed back through its 50-day moving average, a key line that many treat as short-term support.
Meantime, low implied volatility and firmer prompt spreads signal a better balanced or slightly tighter near-term market, rather than one braced for a sudden collapse.
The longer-term anchor on oil remains that surplus story. Saudi Aramco has cut its flagship Arab Light official selling price to Asia to the lowest level since the early-2020s, admitting that refiners have plenty of choice and need an incentive to take Saudi barrels over others.
Sell-side research still leans negative on oil, with banks like Macquarie flagging oil multi-million-barrel-a-day surplus and sketching Brent-in-the-$50s scenarios as storage builds and refining margins compress.
That kind of fundamentally bearish backdrop implies positioning is still skewed short among macro funds and CTAs.
That’s why the pain trade now points higher – if WTI can hold above its 50-day moving average and the $60 level in a low-vol, firmer-spread backdrop, the current bounce may force further short covering barring fresh catalysts.
Hedge Fund CIO: “Trump’s NSS Report Reads Like A Cold War Playbook. Deploy Capital Accordingly”
By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
“What are America’s core foreign policy interests? What do we want in and from the world?” wrote the authors of the newly released ‘National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States of America.’ The NSS is the kind of report I like to read. Because sometimes, policy people tell you what they’re thinking. It’s helpful to take it at face value, incorporating it into your mental model. “We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States.”
The new National Security Strategy of the United States:
“As Alexander Hamilton argued in our republic’s earliest days, the United States must never be dependent on any outside power for core components—from raw materials to parts to finished products— necessary to the nation’s… pic.twitter.com/XWsBL6hxjL
— Under Secretary of State Jacob S. Helberg (@UnderSecE) December 5, 2025
“We want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narco-terrorists,cartels,and other transnational criminal organizations,”continued the NSS. The USS Gerald R. Ford,off the coast of Venezuela,its oil,China watching. “We want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.”
“We want to halt and reverse the ongoing damage that foreign actors inflict on the American economy while keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open,preserving freedom of navigation in all crucial sea lanes,and maintaining secure and reliable supply chains and access to critical materials; We want to support our allies in preserving the freedom and security of Europe, while restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western Identity.” The report savaged Europe, its over-regulation, stagnant economy, immigration policies, free speech limits.
“We want to prevent an adversarial power from dominating the Middle East,its oil and gas supplies,and the chokepoints through which they pass while avoiding the “forever wars” that bogged us down in that region at great cost; and we want to ensure that U.S. technology and U.S. standards—particularly in AI, biotech, and quantum computing—drive the world forward. These are the United States’ core, vital national interests. While we also have others, these are the interests we must focus on above all others, and that we ignore or neglect at our peril.” I expect US spending/support to start looking more Beijing-like in these areas.
“The US must at the same time invest in research to preserve and advance our advantage in cutting-edge military and dual-use technology, with emphasis on the domains where U.S. advantages are strongest. These include undersea, space, and nuclear, as well as others that will decide the future of military power, such as AI, quantum computing, and autonomous systems, plus the energy necessary to fuel these domains.” The NSS report reads like a cold war playbook. Deploy capital and invest accordingly.
“Additionally, the U.S. Government’s critical relationships with the American private sector help maintain surveillance of persistent threats to U.S. networks, including critical infrastructure. This in turn enables the U.S. Government’s ability to conduct real-time discovery, attribution, and response (i.e., network defense and offensive cyber operations) while protecting the competitiveness of the U.S. economy and bolstering the resilience of the American technology sector. Improving these capabilities will also require considerable deregulation to further improve our competitiveness, spur innovation, and increase access to America’s natural resources.”
Anecdote
“After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country,” wrote the authors of the ‘National Security Strategy of the United States of America,’ released this week, signed by the President [here], who is not yet one full-year into his term. What follows speaks for itself.
“Yet the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests. Our elites badly miscalculated America’s willingness to shoulder forever global burdens to which the American people saw no connection to the national interest. They overestimated America’s ability to fund, simultaneously, a massive welfare regulatory-administrative state alongside a massive military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign aid complex. They placed hugely misguided and destructive bets on globalism and so-called “free trade” that hollowed out the very middle class and industrial base on which American economic and military preeminence depend. They allowed allies and partners to offload the cost of their defense onto the American people, and sometimes to suck us into conflicts and controversies central to their interests but peripheral or irrelevant to our own. And they lashed American policy to a network of international institutions, some of which are driven by outright anti-Americanism and many by a transnationalism that explicitly seeks to dissolve individual state sovereignty. In sum, not only did our elites pursue a fundamentally undesirable and impossible goal, in doing so they undermined the very means necessary to achieve that goal: the character of our nation upon which its power, wealth, and decency were built.”
Can Europe Keep Ukraine Armed With Limited US Aid?
Over the past two years, Western support for Ukraine has undergone a drastic change, marked by a surge in European commitments and a notable retreat in U.S. engagement.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s Ukraine Support Tracker, European countries have become the leading providers of government aid to Ukraine, allocating almost €50 billion from January to August 2025, including military, financial and humanitarian support.
On the other hand, the United States had committed over €100 billion in government aid under the Biden administration (2022-2024).
As the war enters its fourth year, Europe’s role as the primary backer of Ukraine is now clear, while U.S. aid uncertainty raises questions about the sustainability of Western support in the long term.
BRICS is a huge power factor whose members, partners, and candidates are currently undergoing a severe test. Today, we look to the future.
Introduction
In the first part of this series, we looked at the facts about BRICS and the major economic trends that can currently be observed.
The second part dealt with the environment in which BRICS must develop as the most important organization of the Global South. We assessed the warlike circumstances in general, the great danger that would arise from a nuclear war, and the unpredictability of the geopolitical situation, which leads us to describe the current situation as a “storm.”
In this third and later fourth part, we will first highlight the aggressive attitude of the US toward its friends. We will then point out the difficult economic situation in the US, which appears better than it is due to the AI hype. Finally, we will describe the US’s efforts to maintain its hegemonic status in various geographical catchment areas.
Aggression Above All – Against Everyone
It does not take a genius to see that the tug-of-war between the Global South and the Collective West is already in full swing. We will discuss this further below, using specific examples.
“If you have America as a friend, you don’t need enemies.”
However, the aggressive approach of the United States is not limited to members of the Global South or BRICS exponents, but is directed against anyone from whom there is something to be taken. This includes countries that are “friends” of America – such as Switzerland – or American colonies, such as most members of the G7 and others. See my thoughts on the “colonial empire of the US” in the article “The war between two worlds has begun – Part 1.”
Trump’s approach toward friends and allies is so aggressive that one is inclined to say, “if you have America as a friend, you don’t need enemies.” There are solid reasons for this aggressive behavior. On the one hand, Trump has set himself the goal of reindustrializing his country. This comes after Wall Street bankers, supported by President Clinton and his successors, deliberately deindustrialized the country just to line their own pockets in the short term.
This strategy also had the side effect of exacerbating income inequality among different social classes, which meant that a few people benefited greatly from this strategy while many industrial workers lost their jobs and became impoverished. Another consequence of this is the loss of industrial expertise among the population.
Trump has realized that he needs to do something. However, I doubt that he intellectually understands multipolarity and thus the concept of BRICS. He doesn’t even have a clue which countries belong to BRICS. On January 21, 2025, he asked journalists whether Spain was a BRICS nation.
Furthermore, in January 2025, Trump still believed that he could bring BRICS to its knees simply by imposing tariffs and sanctions. He also threatened BRICS for not using the dollar:
“We are going to require a commitment from these seemingly hostile Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs,”
The behavior of the US so far does not suggest that it recognizes the danger posed by a BRICS payment system without the US dollar. If that were the case, Trump would try to make the use of the US dollar as attractive as possible for the Global South, but he is not doing so.
His actions to date have been aimed purely and simply at generating revenue through tariffs and extortion. Extortion because, in the case of the EU, for example, in addition to imposing 15% tariffs, investments and arms purchases in the trillions were extorted (see, for example, Reuters). This approach looks like a typical American “quick fix,” probably to avert the complete collapse of the US federal budget.
Fake but funny – AI can also be amusing – submissive European leaders wait to be dismissed by Trump – Source: Lucifer
The lack of intellectual understanding of the dangers that BRICS actually poses is also the reason why Trump sees China as a major adversary and fears that the Chinese are seeking to knock the US off its pedestal as the world’s dominant power. For Trump, who prefers simple paradigms, this is easier to understand and communicate than the BRICS constellation, which the US population neither knows nor comprehends.
The Economic Situation in the US
If we are to believe the statements made by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, at his last press conference on October 29, there is no cause for concern—at least that is how it sounds.
“the economy looks like it’s solid and stable and hasn’t really changed”
The term “looks like” already indicates that this whitewashing is built on sand.
Anyone who does not get his information from sources sponsored by banks and other financial organizations, such as CNBC and other mass media outlets that claim to be “experts,” but instead looks behind the scenes and occasionally visits ZeroHedge, is well aware of the pitiful financial situation of the US, or rather the Collective West. We described this catastrophe and its origins from a geopolitical perspective in our article “The war between two worlds has begun – Part 1.” It is not the purpose of our blog to analyze economic data; others are better at that. Nevertheless, today we would like to point out a phenomenon that is characteristic of our time.
AI – The Mother of All Bubbles?
Those who view American stock indices as a benchmark for the economy are still cheering, albeit more hoarsely than before, as the price bonanza is limited to fewer and fewer stocks and AI is not only the savior, but must be the savior in order to keep the dance around the golden calf alive. The drivers of the stocks – people who tie their careers to this hype – dismiss objections that question how the predicted huge investments on which the valuations are based can even be raised and how a business model can be created in which users are supposed to amortize these huge investments. Most users pay a few dollars to use these artificial brains – nothing more. It is also striking that gigantic investments are passed around in a circle – according to the motto: You send me 100 billion under the heading X and I send the money back under the heading Y: Total investments then amount to 200 billion, but nothing has been invested. Instead of many: New York Times.
For those who want to have a laugh: Ronny Chieng explores the promises of AI
In 2000, there were companies listed on NASDAQ that had nothing to do with the internet, but added “.com” to their names and then saw their share prices jump by 500%. Something similar is happening again now. With these valuations, everyone can be sure that every pension fund in the Western world is invested in this bubble, because the big difference to the dot-com bubble is that back then, it was mainly high-earning doctors and lawyers who lost a lot of money when the bubble burst. Today, every pensioner is caught up in it.
According to the Swiss business newspaper Finanz & Wirtschaft, the current AI bubble (red) is almost twice as big—or rather, twice as bad—as the dot-com bubble of 2000.
No one knows when this bubble will burst, but it will burst, and this will lead to such upheavals on the financial markets that the geopolitical plans of the Collective West will be called into question.
How Ill-informed is Trump?
To what extent Trump is aware of the catastrophic situation facing his nation and the financial markets in the Collective West seems once again difficult to assess. Trump himself—as a real estate mogul—loves the leverage of credit, which has made him rich and has repeatedly ensured that it was not he personally but his lenders who had to write off billions. Trump therefore loves debt and low interest rates. On December 3, 2025, the New York Times wrote:
“Mr. Trump has made clear that he wants a Fed chair who will support substantially lower interest rates, something that the central bank under Mr. Powell’s leadership has rebuffed given the economic backdrop. Inflation has picked back up with Mr. Trump’s tariffs, while the labor market has shown signs of slowing.”
He is therefore unaware that lower interest rates will not only harm the US dollar in the long term, but that he will soon find no buyers for this currency. This circumstance would further reinforce the aversion of the Global South to the US dollar described above, as the US dollar would be shunned not only for geopolitical reasons, but also for purely economic reasons.
A close friend of mine is acquainted with someone who regularly dines with Donald Trump at the Mar-a-Lago dinner club. The talkative president speaks freely about many topics at these private gatherings. A few days ago, for example, he said that the Russian economy was in ruins and that the Russians were suffering catastrophic losses. I am on the ground here and can confirm to our readers that both statements are simply false. This is not about assessing the Russian economy or the situation on the front lines, but this example shows that President Trump is being misinformed by his advisors. Whether this is intentional or due to the incompetence of his administration, I have no way of knowing, but it does make his many suboptimal decisions this year seem more comprehensible, and one can assume that the president, who believes in simple thought patterns, sees the insane rally of a few AI stocks as a sign of a healthy and resilient economy.
How Will Trump Deal with BRICS?
Short-term Solutions to Money Problems
We have established so far that Trump is extremely aggressive economically and also very ruthless toward friends and allies in order to achieve his goals. His most pressing short-term goal is easy to identify: money. In May, we published the article “Mar-a-Lago will fail—without credibility, nothing works anymore.” In it, we critically analyzed Trump’s economic plans. We demonstrated that these plans are partly contradictory and will ultimately fail due to the greatest weakness of the US: Americans are completely unreliable partners and only honor contracts as long as they benefit from them, only to break them afterwards for the flimsiest of reasons. We have already commented on this weakness of the US several times, for example in June in “Diplomacy on its deathbed,” where we quoted Professor Mearsheimer as follows:
“Any country on the planet to trust the United States is remarkably foolish.”
Professor Mearsheimer
Medium- and Long-Term Solutions – Weakening BRICS
To achieve its medium- and long-term goals, the US is employing other means. As we have already outlined in our series “The war between two worlds has already begun,” the Americans are avoiding direct military confrontation with China and Russia. With regard to Russia, we believe that the confrontation in Ukraine is a direct one—see our comments in the second part of this series, “Has World War III already begun?” However, the Americans disagree, and the Russians are letting the Americans believe this for diplomatic reasons.
The US can only maintain its status as a hegemon if it destroys BRICS as an organization or weakens it to such an extent that it becomes what the West describes it as: a failed or embarrassing attempt by a few developing countries to rise above insignificance. In doing so, they are taking action against BRICS members, partners, and candidates, using every means imaginable. They are courting them to get them to switch sides (e.g., Saudi Arabia), weakening or destroying them (e.g., Venezuela).
Below, we outline the pressure points divided into geographical catchment areas on which the Collective West has or intends to exert massive influence.
Catchment Area: Western Flank of Russia
Ukraine
Currently, the Collective West is working on Russia in Ukraine in the Western catchment area. For the origins, I refer to my lecture of March 22, 2024.
The West has been conducting military operations for almost four years with absolutely no success. The losses suffered by the Ukrainians are horrendous, and it looks as though it will be the Russians who determine where their future borders will lie. It is very possible that Russia will turn Ukraine into a landlocked country by capturing Odessa, partly because of the ongoing attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea, which are probably coordinated from London. Professor Mearsheimer’s argument on this subject is compelling (AI-generated).
It is also obvious that it is the Europeans who are torpedoing the US’s peace efforts; the reasons for this are multi-layered:
Firstly, the leaders of the EU and the leaders of the coalition of the willing are acting as ministers of war, protecting Europe from the evil Russians.
A Muppet show for the Western press – Coalition of the Willing, May 10, 2025
The moment peace “breaks out,” these leaders will lose their raison d’être, as it will quickly become apparent that the clamor for war was not staged to protect the countries concerned or the EU, but to preserve the jobs of this caste.
Furthermore, it appears that it was not only the ladies and gentlemen in Kiev who helped themselves to the money flowing in from Washington, the EU, and European countries. The official figure cited in relation to corruption, around 100 million euros, is a drop in the ocean when viewed realistically. It can be assumed that between 40% and 60% of all funds have disappeared. We are therefore talking about a figure of up to 100 billion that has been stolen. Why much of the aid money had to flow through Estonia, for example, raises questions. Did Ms. Kaja Kallas, the spoiled girl, also have her hand in the till? She does have experience with sleazy scandals.
Has experience with sleaziness – Kaja Kallas
We will soon report on these unsavory stories, which have not yet been proven. If Zelensky’s power passes to others, the chances of the ladies and gentlemen in Europe being convicted of corruption increase exponentially. Another reason for Europeans to continue the war.
The Collective West achieved its goals in Romania and Moldova not through military means, but through NGOs and blatant election fraud. We discussed this in our article “Review of the parliamentary elections in Moldova.”
In Moldova and Transnistria, too, the West is provoking confrontation with Russian and Russian-speaking citizens and their culture in order to create the conditions for open confrontation with Russia.
Baltic States
The Baltic states are a particular focus. By demonizing large sections of their own population—Russians—and depriving them of their legitimate rights under EU law, attempts are being made to weaken Russia. These citizens, who are not citizens, are in fact called “non-citizens,” do not have EU passports, and their right to vote and stand for election is restricted. They are also only allowed to use their own language to a very limited extent; there is even a language police force, and Russian-speaking citizens have had to take language tests, failure of which can lead to expulsion from the country for pensioners living there. As a result, more than 800 pensioners living in Latvia with valid residence permits have been expelled from the country for these reasons, as the news portal News.ru credibly reports.
The information that Estonia intends to increase the fines for the incorrect use of language—meaning the use of the Russian language—to €1,280 for natural persons and €10,000 for legal entities also points in the same direction. The dubbing of films into Russian is now also to be banned in Estonia.
Estonia is the homeland of the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas. Under normal circumstances, diplomacy also involves maintaining and developing cultural relations and preventing discrimination. Article 21 of the EU Charter states:
« 1. Any discrimination based on any ground such as sex, race, colour, ethnic or social origin, genetic features, language, religion or belief, political or any other opinion, membership of a national minority, property, birth, disability, age or sexual orientation shall be prohibited.»
Have you heard any criticism of the Baltic states’ treatment of their Russian-speaking citizens over the past 30 years? That’s how long this violation of the law has been going on. In this respect, the Baltic states are on a par with the regime in Kiev.
Hungary/Slovakia
Hungary and Slovakia are the only EU countries striving for a non-aggressive relationship with Russia. This is due, among other things, to their continuing close economic ties with Russia. The Collective West is interfering massively in the internal affairs of Hungary and Slovakia via NGOs and direct pressure from the EU. In this way, attempts are being made to get rid of Prime Ministers Orban and Fico, if necessary by physical means. In Fico’s case, this almost succeeded when an assassination attempt was made on him in Banska Bystrica on May 15, 2024.
Serbia
As a non-EU country completely surrounded by NATO countries, a landlocked country, the traditionally pro-Russian enclave is exposing itself to a significant extent in favor of Russia. The pressure is mounting. On the one hand, the country wants to become part of the EU, but on the other hand, there is considerable resistance to this in Serbia. Furthermore, Serbia’s only refinery, which is majority-owned by Lukoil, has fallen victim to new American sanctions. Serbia has not yet found a solution, i.e., no buyer for Lukoil’s stake. Russia was then given one and a half months to sell Lukoil’s stake in order to have the US sanctions lifted.
In any case, this problem will lead to higher energy prices, which could cause unrest. Whether the West will succeed in turning Serbia into an enemy of Russia is uncertain and probably depends on whether Vucic finds a way to defend his policies and remain firmly in the saddle.
Catchment Area – Caucasus
Azerbaijan/Armenia
The two Caucasus states have been striving toward the West for several years. The reasons for Azerbaijan’s efforts lie in its close alliance with Turkey, which in turn works very closely with Great Britain in the Caucasus. This is reflected in Azerbaijan’s procurement of Western weapons for its conflict with Armenia. Furthermore, the country is Israel’s main energy supplier, via Turkey. The energy sources (gas and oil) themselves are mostly under British control (BP). This also applies to other mineral resources (gold, copper, etc.). Azerbaijan is also a huge producer of fruit and vegetables. Russia remains the main buyer of these products. The fruit and vegetable trade in Russia is dominated by Azerbaijanis. Since Russia accounts for around 50 percent of the country’s agricultural production, the political leadership must take this constellation into account, especially since well over 30 percent of the workforce is employed in this sector. Another factor to be taken into account is the large number of Azerbaijani migrants in Russia. For Russia, they fill a gap in the labor market, while for Azerbaijan, they fill the state coffers with their substantial remittances. These examples illustrate the complexity of mutual dependencies.
The illegitimate seizure of power by the current Prime Minister Pashinyan accelerated Armenia’s shift away from Russia. As in the case of Azerbaijan, this trend does not reflect the opinion of the majority of the population, but rather the interests of a small segment of the political class. The latest step in this direction is Yerevan’s announcement a few days ago that it will leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in addition to Russia and Armenia. This step is also the logical consequence of the signing of an agreement with the US to regulate the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani-Iranian border following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh after the war with Azerbaijan over this region.
The border strip between the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan and the Azerbaijani mainland on the Iranian border will in future be controlled by a private American military company. Armenia itself gains practically nothing from this. Azerbaijan gains American-controlled land access to its enclave and thus to Turkey and NATO.
For 100 years, the US will receive approximately 75 percent of all revenue from traffic volume and control of a key region on Iran’s northern border. What was secretly established during the Israeli-Iranian war in June 2025—the complicity of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the attack on Iran—is hereby given a veneer of legality.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is an extremely important strategic partner for Russia, and Russia is an extremely important strategic partner for Kazakhstan.
The land border is enormous (7,644 km) and the population density on both sides is low. It is therefore essential for both countries to have good relations, as it is impossible to guard such a long border. Both states are among the world’s raw material giants. The Kazakh company Kazatomprom, for example, produces 40% of the world’s uranium. Kazakhstan also produces natural gas, oil, coal, iron ore, etc. The list is almost as long as Russia’s.
Politically speaking, Kazakhstan is performing a balancing act. On the one hand, the country is strategically important as a member of the CSTO, while on the other hand, as a member of the Organization of Turkic States and a Turkic-speaking country, it also plays a significant role in Turkey’s strategic considerations. In addition to Kazakhstan and Turkey, this organization includes the post-Soviet states of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan. Hungary and Turkmenistan have observer status. And American experts recommend that only with the accession of Tajikistan and Armenia would the organization reach its full potential and strength.
Just a few days ago, Kazakh President Kassym Tokayev signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington on deepening cooperation with the US, particularly in the field of raw materials, before stopping off in Moscow on his return journey to sign a strategic partnership agreement with Russia.
The overlap between the strategic interests of the West on the one hand, Russia and China on the other, and the particular interests of Turkey and a number of other states is obvious.
Kazakhstan is a good example of how the Americans – through companies such as Halliburton – want to exert peaceful influence (for the time being). If this does not succeed, which we assume will be the case due to the pro-Russian sentiment of the population – Kazakhs speak Russian without any accent, as Russian is also an official language – the Americans will probably resort to more aggressive means. The reason for this is simple: a Kazakhstan under American control would be a dream for the US and hell for the Russians.
The culture war in the western world is currently hitting a crescendo. At first the media said it was all “conspiracy theory” being amplified by a “fringe minority” of radical right wingers. Then, they admitted the conflict was real but claimed that conservatives were monsters trying to “dismantle democracy”. Today, the culture war has become the dominant issue of our age with the debate echoing through the halls of the White House.
Leftists hoped they could make it all go away by dismissing it. They hoped they could continue with their ideological takeover at their leisure. They failed. The rebellion in the US is a product of decades of effort by liberty advocates and it is finally bearing fruit.
However, I think many Americans and some Europeans are discovering that movements like progressive wokism (essentially Cultural Marxism) are much more than a mere reaction to the return of conservatives to the cultural space. The fight that’s happening in front of the curtain is only a dim reflection of the fight that’s going on behind the curtain.
Almost every facet of leftist political and social activism is bankrolled by some of the wealthiest organizations and individuals on the planet. In fact, I would argue that without the billions of dollars in global funding provided by NGOs, government entities and corporations, the political left as we know it would not exist and the world would be much quieter.
A prime example is anti-ICE organizations: These groups have access to extensive cash reserves to finance call networks, they pay for hundreds or even thousand of protesters and agitators, they pay for legal representation and bail to get their activist agents out of jail, and they often obtain inside information on ICE operations before those operations occur.
These groups function less like homegrown civil rights efforts and more like clandestine government agencies. And, if you check the tax backgrounds of all of them you will find, without fail, that they’re propped up by NGOs like the Open Society Foundation, Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, global corporations like Vangaurd and Blackrock, and government bureaucracies like USAID (before it was shut down).
Nothing about these movements is natural, they are purely astroturf. It might look like chaos, but every time you see leftist mobs on the news trying to interfere with ICE arrests and deportations, what you are watching is a highly organized machine flush with globalist cash working to undermine US sovereignty.
The mass immigration of third worlders is coordinated by globalists. The protests against deportations are funded by globalists. The politicians that promote open border policies and enable the invasion of the west are closely associated with prominent globalists. The war on the west is a globalist war; radical activists are mindless soldiers and paid mercenaries. They are not the source of the conflict; they shield the source.
Unfortunately there are too many conservative commentators out there that REFUSE to accept the reality that the actions of the political left are coordinated by a deeper conspiracy. I don’t know why they deny the existence of this cabal, I can only surmise that the idea of an top-down conspiracy to bring about the downfall of western culture is too frightening for them to ponder.
There is also the problem of motive. There’s plenty of conservatives and patriots with a vague notion of why the globalists do the things they do. Evil exists, that’s not up for debate. But beyond the underlying mental factors of psychopathy and delusions of godhood, the issue of relativism is ever present. It is a globalist obsession.
Globalism is rooted in cultural relativism, moral relativism, legal relativism, even biological relativism. Western culture is basically the antithesis of relativism, and thus, it must be destroyed in order for globalism to thrive. Everything else is just a tactic, a strategy to destroy the west while taking none of the blame.
Only the west codifies the idea of inherent liberties into its legal framework. Only the west (specifically the US) places individual citizen rights as equal to or greater than the policies of government. Only the west values free thought over uniformity. Only the west (largely the US) preaches the necessity of popular revolt in the wake of collectivist tyranny.
The problem is, most of the world has no concept of these ideals. They have spent their lives acclimating to cultures where “rights” are also relative – Relative to the whims of socialist and authoritarian regimes.
It therefore makes perfect sense for globalists to fund the importation of millions of foreigners, mostly from the third world, into the west. These are people whose minds are already enslaved by a lifetime of submission to collectivism and oligarchy. The migrants go along with the plan because the incentives are too enticing. Their masters are aiming them at the west and saying:
“Go and pillage, take what you can! We will let you plunder these wealthy places as long as you do as we say after the coffers are looted and the blood in the streets is dry in the sun…”
In other words, the globalists are giving the oppressed third worlders a steam valve, an opportunity to “chimp out” and act on their worst impulses. It is a sad but pervasive observation that the majority of enslaved minds HATE the existence of free people, even if those people live on the other side of the planet.
This doesn’t only apply to hostile migrants, it also applies to the progressives that live next door to us. Look at what happened during the pandemic. Look at how they act when faced with facts that contradict their political beliefs. They snap, they crash out, they go insane. The spit and froth and rage like animals. They revile us and nothing would make them happier than to see us dead. All because we don’t blindly embrace their doctrine.
Wokeness, along with multiculturalism, is a globalist construct adapted as a new world religion and all of its tenets are designed as an attack on western values. We respect meritocracy, so they create DEI and equity. We promote personal responsibility, so they promote narcissism and self worship. We revere free markets, so they enable expanding socialism. We respect biological science and the biblical definitions of man and woman, so they create gender fluid ideology. We respect moral objectivity and the reality of good and evil, so they conjure up the philosophy of moral relativism as a license for ubridled degeneracy.
To be sure, there are other cultures that do not embrace wokeness, but they don’t present a legitimate threat to globalism. They don’t have a legacy of free thought, they have no interest in rebellion and they are mostly disarmed so they wouldn’t be able to fight back if they wanted to.
Wokeness was specifically tailored as a weapon against the west; a weapon that targets our belief in liberty and attempts to use it against us. For if an individual has a right to choose their own path, how far does this right extend? Do individuals have the rights and the freedom to congregate into mobs and systematically burn the west down? Liberals would say “yes”, and if anyone tries to stop them those people are tyrants.
Are we tyrants if we fight back? Are we fascists if we defend out culture and borders from erasure? Are we hypocrites if we ignore the sovereignty of people whose only goal is to eliminate our sovereignty?
My counter-argument to this philosophy is that leftists and globalist have no right to socially engineer the west. They only have the right to leave the west and start their own systems somewhere else. If they hate the west so much, why don’t they relocate instead of staying here, or inviting in millions of immigrants that also have no respect for our heritage?
Because this is not a civic disagreement between citizens with a mutual love of country – This is a war between mortal enemies who share nothing in common. They don’t want to live peacefully in another place where they can experiment with socialism to their heart’s content. They want to conquer and subjugate. Globalism must be global. If any competing systems are allowed to exist they will act as proof that the relativist method is an inferior method.
The key to understanding the globalist war on the west is first to recognize that a conspiracy of “elites” is a hard, irrefutable fact. Second, we must accept that war has been declared on us and this war is one of total conquest. We are not allowed to live separately and peacefully, our very existence is seen as a threat to the establishment. Third, globalists view western culture as antithetical to their future aims. Globalism cannot prevail as long as western ideals exist.
Finally, as noted, most of the world is against us whether they know it or not. Even old allies in Europe are becoming enemies. Import masses of third worlders into America and they don’t become American, America becomes the third world. Import millions of socialists into the US and the US becomes increasingly socialist. This is very simple to understand, but leftists (and some libertarians) refuse to acknowledge the truth.
Not all cultures are equal. Some are better than others. It’s fascinating how liberals continue to pretend as if different nations and cultures don’t produce tribes that are contrary to each other. We are not the same and natural coexistence is a myth. Coexistence of such groups is created through intimidation, extortion and force. The liberal Utopian ideal of multiculturalism requires oppressive centralization and tyranny.
Globalism is the mechanism by which total and eternal oligarchy is achieved. They use open borders, mass immigration, woke cultism, economic crisis, international conflagration, engineered pandemics, anything you can think of and more to tear their enemies down. We are their enemy. We didn’t choose this fight, they did, and they will continue changing strategies until they find one that works (or until we end their little experiment).
