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 “Customers Are Hungry For AI “: Dell Upgrades Long-Term Outlook 

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 “Customers Are Hungry For AI “: Dell Upgrades Long-Term Outlook 

Shares of Dell Technologies jumped in premarket trading in New York after executives are expected to unveil a sharply higher long-term financial outlook at the company’s Securities Analyst Meeting on Tuesday morning, boosting confidence in AI-driven demand across its data center and PC units. It seems that with each passing day, more AI-related headlines, from Monday’s AMD-OpenAI deal to the ongoing AI vendor-financing “circle jerk”, continue to propel AI and chip stocks to record highs. 

Chairman and CEO Michael Dell and other members of the executive leadership team will announce a new “long-term financial framework” that forecasts sales to rise at a rate of 7% to 9% annually for the next four years, while earnings per share, excluding some items, will increase 15% or more. The previous forecast, which was made in 2023, had an estimated revenue growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted EPS of 8% or better. 

Ahead of the Securities Analyst Meeting that begins around 0930 ET, COO Jeff Clarke told Bloomberg, “We were all wrong how big we thought the AI market was two years ago, and it’s nothing but bigger.” This growth is fueled by orders from CoreWeave, Elon Musk’s xAI, the U.S. Energy Department, and Abu Dhabi’s G42.

Here’s more commentary from Dell leadership ahead of the analyst meeting:

  • CEO Michael Dell: “Customers are hungry for AI and the compute, storage, and networking we provide to deploy intelligence at scale. The opportunity ahead is massive.”

  • COO Jeff Clarke: “We’re actively shaping the future of AI infrastructure — growing AI into a $20 billion business in two years.”

  • CFO David Kennedy: “With our increased EPS target, we expect to double EPS again.”

Shares of Dell in New York in premarket trading jumped 6% on the press release from the company detailing what executives were planning to unveil at the upcoming analyst meeting. Shares are up 26.5% on the year (as of Monday’s close). 

News from Dell adds to the positive news flow that has sent the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor to record highs.

Yesterday’s news:

Endless positive news flow generated by:

. . . 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 09:40

US Airports Experience Delays Due To Staffing Issues Caused By Shutdown: Duffy

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US Airports Experience Delays Due To Staffing Issues Caused By Shutdown: Duffy

Major U.S. airports reported widespread delays Monday as the federal shutdown strained an already short-staffed air-traffic system, prompting fresh warnings from industry and labor leaders that the impasse could ripple across the peak travel season.

A plane docks on the tarmac after an air traffic control outage, bringing flights to a standstill at Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, N.J., on May 12, 2025. Eduardo Munoz/Reuters

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said air-traffic control towers were contending with mounting absenteeism since the shutdown began Oct. 1, forcing the Federal Aviation Administration to slow operations at times to maintain safety. While roughly 13,000 controllers are classified as essential and continue working, there is no assurance they will be paid on time, he said. About 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers are also required to report to work; their next paycheck is due Oct. 14.

According to Duffy, he’s been receiving reports of varying levels of absenteeism across the country, which rely on air traffic controllers from the Fededral Aviation Administration (FAA). He said that the department was tracking the staff shortages, which are being reported in “one area in one day, another area another day.”

By late Monday, flight-tracking service FlightAware counted more than 5,500 delayed flights nationwide. The FAA cited staffing impacts at several major airports, including Newark, Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas and Hollywood Burbank near Los Angeles. Weather compounded the backups. At Denver International, about 32% of arrivals were delayed; Newark saw 22% delayed, while roughly 15% of flights were late at Burbank, according to FlightAware.

The mounting staffing strain threatens to undo progress the FAA has tried to make after years of shortfalls. Many controllers have been working mandatory overtime and six-day weeks, and the agency remains about 3,500 controllers shy of its target staffing levels. The FAA has been surging hiring through its academy in Oklahoma City and training centers nationwide – efforts that rely on support personnel who, Mr. Duffy warned, are at risk of being laid off during the shutdown.

I don’t want them driving Uber. I don’t want them finding a second job to pay the bills,” the secretary said. “I want them to get paid for the work that they’re doing today, keeping our planes in the air and our skies safe.” He also pressed congressional leaders to reopen the government, criticizing the stalemate on social media.

Labor leaders echoed the call. “We do not have the luxury of time,” said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, speaking at Newark Liberty International Airport. “This work includes accelerating the hiring of controllers and modernizing our air-traffic control system. Both initiatives are long overdue and require our immediate and full attention…. End the shutdown.”

Airlines warned of broader repercussions if the funding lapse continues. Airlines for America, which represents United, Delta, American and Southwest, said the system may need to slow down during a prolonged shutdown, eroding efficiency and inconveniencing travelers. In 2019, a 35-day shutdown led to increased absences among controllers and TSA officers and forced the FAA to slow traffic in the New York area—pressure that helped end that impasse. Then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said at the time the shutdown was “pushing our airspace to the breaking point.”

The latest shutdown also threatens smaller communities that depend on federal subsidies to maintain service. Mr. Duffy said funding for the Essential Air Service program, which helps airlines serve rural and remote towns, runs out Oct. 12. “There’s many small communities across the country that will now no longer have the resources to make sure they have air service in their community,” he said, noting that Alaska would be among the states affected.

For now, the FAA says U.S. airspace remains safe, and officials are managing traffic flows to match available staffing. But with absenteeism rising and a large contingent of essential workers facing uncertainty over paychecks, the margin for operational flexibility is narrowing. As Mr. Duffy put it: “You’ll see more delays” – and possibly cancellations – “if this continues.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 09:25

‘Best Is Yet To Come’: NYSE Parent Invests $2 Billion In Polymarket At $9 Billion Valuation

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‘Best Is Yet To Come’: NYSE Parent Invests $2 Billion In Polymarket At $9 Billion Valuation

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has invested $2 billion in cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket.

According to a Tuesday Polymarket X post, the ICE invested $2 billion in the prediction market. The deal values Polymarket at a $9 billion post-money valuation.

As CoinTelegraph reports, ICE’s NYSE is the world’s largest stock exchange by market capitalization, exceeding $25 trillion as of July 2024. Its interest is the latest move that fuses the United States’ traditional financial landscape with the cryptocurrency industry.

Polymarket is a crypto-powered prediction market where people buy and sell “shares” in real-world event outcomes (elections, sports, crypto prices), with market prices reflecting the crowd’s implied probabilities. Trades typically settle in stablecoins, and markets are resolved against predefined, verifiable sources, with access for US users restricted due to regulatory reasons.

Polymarket’s homepage. Source: Polymarket

CEO Shayne Coplan wrote on X:  Markets on everything.

We’re proud to announce that $ICE, the owner of @NYSE and the largest exchange company in the world, is making a strategic investment of $2 billion into Polymarket, valuing us at $9 billion post-money.

Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. But in addition to that, it’s a monumental step forward for DeFi. ICE is the one remaining founder-led exchange company, and Jeff is all-in on utilizing his assets, including NYSE, to usher in a new financial era of tokenization. We’re humbled to be working together on this endeavor. ICE will also begin distributing Polymarket data to thousands of financial institutions around the world. There is so much to build when you combine the force of ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer + cultural savvy and distribution.

The past two years have been surreal. Going from a write off to creating a category, watching our vision become a reality. The Polymarket origin story is funny because it’s a rare case of the dream being identical to how things played out. If I learned one thing, it’s that bold ideas are everywhere, hidden in plain sight. It just takes someone crazy enough to spend their life willing it into existence. That’s entrepreneurship: willing things into existence.

I remember reading Robin Hanson’s literature on prediction markets and thinking – man, this is too good of an idea to just exist in whitepapers. There were a million reasons why it shouldn’t work, countless arguments of why not to do it, and the odds were against us, but we had to try.

At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it. But I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever, and Polymarket could play a critical role in that. After all, nothing is more valuable than the truth. It’s still a work in progress, but we’re honored to have made the impact we have thus far.

I’d also like to give a special thank you to all of our users, builders, and community members who have been with us since 2020. Your support will not be forgotten.

Last but not least, I am deeply grateful for all of the support and hard work of my brilliant team. I’m getting to live my wildest dreams, seemingly against all odds, and I don’t take it for granted.

The best is yet to come…

Que Sera Sera

Polymarket prepares US relaunch

The news also follows recent reports that Polymarket is reportedly preparing a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion. In early September, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter to QCX granting Polymarket relief from certain federal reporting and record-keeping requirements.

That stance marks a notable shift from prior years. In mid-November 2024, the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) went as far as to raid the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, seizing his phone and electronics. The CFTC also issued a cease-and-desist order against Polymarket in early 2022.

This followed Polymarket’s July acquisition of the US-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCEX for $112 million in preparation for its re-entry into the US market. In recent times, the prediction market has undergone significant leadership changes.

In late August, Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr., the son of US President Donald Trump, to its advisory board after receiving a strategic investment from self-described politically aligned vehicle 1789 Capital. The financial details are unclear, but according to some estimates, the investment was worth “double-digit millions of dollars.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 08:50

“For God’s Sake, Stop The Rhetoric!”: Border Czar Tom Homan Pleads With Anti-ICE Dems

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“For God’s Sake, Stop The Rhetoric!”: Border Czar Tom Homan Pleads With Anti-ICE Dems

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Border Czar Tom Homan said Thursday that ICE will not be intimidated by the left’s anti-ICE attacks and will continue its mission of deporting criminal illegal aliens. “They won’t stop the men and women of ICE,” he told Fox News host Harris Faulkner.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Immigration and Customs has seen a 1000 percent increase in violence against agents as they carry out their operations.

In the latest episode on Wednesday,  29-year-old Joshua Jahn managed to kill an illegal alien detainee and wound two others before shooting himself in the head. Police found unspent bullet casings with the words “anti-ICE” written onto them at the scene. While ICE was clearly the target, no agents were harmed in the targeted attack.

Homan said there are about 600,000 illegal aliens with criminal histories walking the streets, mostly because of sanctuary cities. He explained that because authorities in sanctuary jurisdictions do not cooperate with ICE, agents are forced to go into neighborhoods to find criminal illegals, endangering themselves, and often causing nonviolent illegal aliens to get swept up with them.

“In sanctuary cities, they force us to go into communities to find the bad guy and if we find them with others, they’re coming too,” the Border Czar explained. “We’re not going to turn our back, we’re not going to turn out back on the law Congress enacted,” he continued. “If you want less collateral arrests, then let us into the damn jail where it’s safe for the agent, it’s safe for the alien and it’s safe for the community. But they won’t do it,” he lamented.

“Throughout my career, I’ve buried Border Patrol, I’ve buried ICE agents. I’ve handled too many folded flags for spouses and children of those who died in the line of duty! For God’s sake, stop the rhetoric!” he pleaded. “These men and women are patriots. They’re moms and dads too. And I want every one of them to go home to their families each night.”

Rather than moderating their tone, however, leading Democrats have doubled down on their inflammatory rhetoric, even as attacks on federal law enforcement officers have increased. Fox News provided just a sampling of the invective being spewed by Dems toward ICE in recent days:

In a post on X several hours after the shooting, Rep. Nikki Budzinski, D-Ill., accused ICE agents of unleashing “dangerous and reckless immigration operations” on the public.

“I’ve joined the Illinois delegation in demanding answers about DHS’s dangerous and reckless operations in our state,” wrote Budzinski. “We refuse to stand by while masked agents trample on due process, indiscriminately arrest our neighbors, and threaten immigrant communities.”

In a since-deleted post, Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., also criticized ICE agents after the attack, accusing them of “picking up moms as they drop off their kids to daycare or people going to work.”

Just days before the attack, Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Ill., who is also a Democratic senatorial candidate, accused ICE of using “Gestapo tactics” against the American people, saying their actions “are a betrayal of the values we swear to uphold.”

Leading Democrats have also taken a similar tone against ICE agents, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who accused Trump border czar Tom Homan of working to “unleash masked ICE agents on the American people.”

Last week, former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., accused ICE of intentionally stoking fear and tearing communities apart.

“ICE is targeting community members with no criminal record,” Warren wrote on X. “Agents are sitting outside of churches and schools. Driving unmarked vans and breaking car windows. These violent ICE arrests don’t make us safer — they intentionally stoke fear and tear communities apart.”

Speaking on the Senate floor last week, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., accused federal officials of targeting anyone with “brown skin and a Hispanic surname.”

“ICE is arresting first and asking questions later,” Durbin said. “I’ve seen the devastating impacts of these policies in my state of Illinois. People are fearful of masked men in unmarked vans who can grab them at any time because of how they look or their voice, accent.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom described the Trump administration’s deportation effort as “authoritarian” during an appearance on Stephen Colbert’s late night show Tuesday.

“That’s happening in the United States of America, Newsom fumed. “Masked men jumping out of unmarked cars, people disappearing, no due process, no oversight, zero accountability!”

The Border Czar said he prays for the safety of his agents, as well as “the safety of those we’re looking for.”

As for the anti-ICE protesters, Homan said they don’t even know what they’re protesting.

“If you ask them why they’re protesting, they’re going to say things they heard in the fake media,” he explained.  “If the media would tell the truth about what ICE is actually doing, maybe so many people wouldn’t get inflamed!”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 06:30

China’s Soybean Boycott – Key Questions Before Trump-Xi Meeting

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China’s Soybean Boycott – Key Questions Before Trump-Xi Meeting

At the end of last week, new details emerged via a Wall Street Journal report outlining the Trump administration’s potential farm bailout, estimated to be in the range of $10 billion to $14 billion, aimed at cushioning farmers amid China’s pivot in agricultural purchases to Brazil. Trump blasted China last week, saying Beijing was “hurting” American farmers during the ongoing trade negotiations, and noted that soybeans would be a major topic in his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

Soybeans and agricultural purchases have yet again become a central battleground in US-China trade talks. 

To make sense of it all, Bloomberg provided readers with a Q&A breakdown about the soybean debate ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which begins in late October:

Why is China refusing to buy U.S. soybeans?

China hasn’t purchased any soybeans from the current U.S. harvest. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other administration officials say Beijing is using soybeans as leverage in broader trade negotiations. Earlier this year, the two countries came to a temporary truce that lowered tariffs and eased export controls, but that agreement expires in November. Trump has accused China of holding off “for negotiating reasons only.” This season, Beijing has instead turned to South America. Brazil and Argentina have been supplying soybeans for China’s animal feed producers and oil extraction “crushers,” filling a need usually met by the U.S.

How is this impacting U.S. soybean farmers?

The fallout for farmers has been significant. In 2024, the U.S. made up about one-fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and those sales represented more than half of the value of all U.S. soybean exports. Without that market, growers are left with fewer buyers and weaker prices. Across the U.S. Midwest, farmers are watching storage bins fill up as harvests roll in. Researchers at Purdue University warn that higher costs for fertilizer, seed, and chemicals — combined with falling soybean prices — are squeezing profits. Many growers are choosing to store crops rather than sell at steep losses. That pain ripples across the industry. Grain elevators, processors, and the railroads that move soybeans across the country are all affected by the slowdown.

Does Washington have leverage to pressure Beijing into changing its policy?

The Trump administration has suggested it does. Bessent predicted a “pretty big breakthrough” from the next round of talks. Trump has promised to put soybeans at the top of his agenda when he meets Xi. However, Republican senators left a meeting on Sept. 30 with the U.S. ambassador to China discouraged, saying Beijing has little intention of resuming purchases anytime soon. Trump has said his administration will use funds collected from tariffs to provide farmer relief. On Sept. 24, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins promised a new aid package “in the next couple of weeks,” though the federal shutdown complicates the picture.

Are there risks for China?

Yes, but they’re limited in the short run. China’s massive animal agriculture industry needs soybeans to produce animal feed. But Chinese crushers and farmers have already built up higher-than-usual inventories, and government reserves provide a further cushion. That gives Beijing room to wait until early 2026 before it feels pressure to buy more from abroad. China’s reliance on Brazil and Argentina brings long-term risks, however. With fewer suppliers, a future weather shock could prove costly, even as Beijing’s tilt toward Brazilian beans is boosting output from the world’s top grower.

What are soybeans used for?

Soybeans are essential to China’s food system. The bulk of imports are crushed into meal for animal feed for pigs, which supply most of the country’s meat, and other livestock. Soy oil is also widely used for cooking and food products. Soybeans are also processed into biofuels and industrial products.

Has China boycotted U.S. soybeans before?

Yes. During Trump’s first term, Beijing slashed purchases of U.S. soybeans as part of the 2018–2019 trade war. That pressure helped push the Trump administration to agree to the so-called Phase One deal. Under that agreement, China pledged to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. farm goods, including soybeans, in exchange for tariff relief. Trump later blamed his successor, Joe Biden, for not adequately enforcing the agreement. The current standoff looks similar. Once again, China is using soybeans as leverage to counter U.S. tariffs and restrictions.

Related:

Key chart to understand China’s pivot:

Source: Financial Times 

. . .

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 05:45

Goaded By Tariffs, European Pharmaceutical Industry Pivots To The US

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Goaded By Tariffs, European Pharmaceutical Industry Pivots To The US

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. tariff policy and its unmatched pharmaceutical market are pulling European drugmakers to invest more heavily, from new manufacturing plants to U.S. stock listings and discount pricing deals.

Since early 2025, European drugmakers have stepped up their U.S. presence. In the most recent move, the United Kingdom’s giant AstraZeneca announced on Sept. 29 a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange, just months after pledging $50 billion of U.S. investment by 2030.

The UK-headquartered Indivior dropped its London listing in July to trade solely on Nasdaq, while Swiss giants Roche and Novartis unveiled U.S. expansion plans in April worth $23 billion and $50 billion, respectively. France’s Sanofi has likewise committed at least $20 billion in American projects through 2030.

The moves reflect both the pull of the U.S. market, which accounted for more than half of global prescription medicine sales in 2024, and the push of political signals from Washington.

On Sept. 25, President Donald Trump, after months of warning about pharmaceutical tariffs, announced a 100 percent levy on imports of branded and patented medicines from Oct. 1 unless manufacturers build plants in the United States.

“Pharmaceutical companies are very cognizant of what the White House is saying, and they’re acting accordingly,” Russ Mould, investment director at British investment platform AJ Bell, told The Epoch Times.

He said that the United States, as the world’s largest economy and the biggest pharmaceutical market, was not a place where any chief executive wanted to risk being put at a competitive disadvantage.

US Market Dwarfs Its Peers

According to data from the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), North America represented 54.8 percent of global prescription sales in 2024, compared with 22.7 percent for Europe.

Between 2019 and 2023, two-thirds of new drug launches were made first in the United States, compared with just 16 percent across Europe’s top five markets.

That dominance has left non-U.S. drugmakers highly exposed to tariff risk. The European Union exported nearly €120 billion ($127 billion) worth of medicines to the United States in 2024, making America its largest pharmaceutical trading partner, according to the European Commission.

The United Kingdom alone shipped £7 billion ($8.5 billion) in pharmaceutical products across the Atlantic in the year to March 2025, UK government data show.

Industry analysts say the U.S. tariff policy, combined with Trump’s push for lower U.S. drug prices, are accelerating strategic shifts.

“It does look as though it is the direction of travel,” said Susannah Streeter, money and markets analyst at UK consultancy Consultable told The Epoch Times. “If companies are planning to build a factory in the United States, they will be exempt from extra tariffs. So this is concentrating minds among pharma giants about where to locate future manufacturing facilities.”

Streeter said the trend of companies shifting stock exchange listings from Europe to the United States depends largely on where their core business is located. In AstraZeneca’s case, U.S. revenues in the first quarter of 2025 made up roughly 42 percent of regional sales.

Smaller firms, Streeter said, are less likely to make such a move due to the capital required and the need for an established U.S. customer base.

“It’s quite a big undertaking. You certainly require a lot of capital to start moving entire operations, uprooting them and moving across the United States. Obviously you would need to make sure that you have a strong customer base there … So the bigger companies, it’s probably more likely that you’d see movement more quickly.”

For investors, she said the rationale behind these shifts is to avoid higher duties that could raise the cost of drugs in the United States.

“The hope is that they will avoid increased duties, which would make the drugs more expensive … so that they can ensure that their drugs get the widest possible customer base,” Streeter said.

The Push From Europe and the UK

Britain spends far less on medicines overall, just 9 percent of its healthcare budget, compared with 15–17 percent in France, Germany, and Italy, data from the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) show. Streeter said this helps explain “why you see moves away from the UK first.”

In the United Kingdom, drug companies have to hand back a large share of sales under government rebate schemes.

In 2025, firms in the main voluntary scheme will return 22.9 percent of revenues on eligible sales of newer medicines to the National Health Service, while those in the statutory scheme will pay 31.3 percent from July, averaging 23.4 percent across the year.

Rates are set to climb further to 24.3 percent in 2026 and 26 percent in 2027. By comparison, clawbacks are far lower in other European countries—about 7 percent in Germany, 9 percent in Ireland, and 5–12 percent in France, according to the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry.

The pressure is not limited to Britain. The European Union is also rewriting its drug rules, which determine how long companies can sell a new medicine without competition from generics. In June 2025, EU governments backed a plan to give firms at least eight years of protection, plus up to two extra years in some cases.

US Price Pressures and the Pfizer Deal

While Washington is also pressing for lower drug prices, the U.S. still offers greater rewards than Europe thanks to its size, deeper stock market liquidity, and new drug launch priority.

Following the Sept. 30 deal in which Pfizer agreed to cut Medicaid prices to match those in other developed nations, Swiss lobby Scienceindustries said other European firms may follow with similar “mini-deals.” Director General Stephan Mumenthaler told Reuters he expected announcements “one by one in the coming days and weeks.”

Both AstraZeneca and Sanofi also unveiled measures on Sept. 26 aimed at expanding affordability.

For some companies, the U.S. market also looks more attractive because of its financial depth.

“The London Stock Exchange has been suffering from lower levels of liquidity, and that has been a concern, certainly compared to the United States, where there’s been a huge amount of trading activity,” said Streeter. “There are—there are concerns about that, certainly in London.”

Tariff Uncertainty and Investment Outlook

Uncertainty remains around how U.S. tariffs will be applied, particularly for EU countries. Under a trade deal reached with the United States in July, tariffs on pharmaceuticals were capped at 15 percent.

The Trump administration formally confirmed the exemptions on Sept. 25. The following day, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris said Dublin would study the impact of the broader tariff announcements, but welcomed the exemptions for EU products under the agreement.

In parallel, the United States and the United Kingdom agreed under a recent trade deal to work on giving UK-made medicines and ingredients better trade terms, depending on the outcome of a U.S. review of whether certain imports threaten national security.

“I still think that there is a question mark surrounding how onerous the tariffs would actually be, particularly for European Union-based drugs companies,” Streeter said.

Meanwhile, U.S.-based financial services and investment research firm Morningstar said in a Sept. 25 report that tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals would likely have only a limited long-term effect on major drugmakers.

The firm estimated that a 15 percent tariff would reduce earnings by about 9 percent for U.S. companies and 6 percent for European ones, but said the impact would likely be eased by steps such as outsourcing production and securing multiple suppliers for key ingredients.

Analysts noted that European groups such as AstraZeneca and Novartis face higher upfront costs to expand in the United States, but could benefit from lower trade risks over time.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 05:00

Rare Blackout In Western Russia After Attacks From Ukraine

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Rare Blackout In Western Russia After Attacks From Ukraine

After a huge overnight cross-border drone attack out of Ukraine, a sizeable chunk of Western Russia is experiencing a rare and significant blackout.

The outages have mostly been experienced in Belgorod Region in western Russia, according to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, who says that 40,000 residents were left without power starting Sunday evening.

Screenshot of video purporting to show drone attack in Belgorod.

Hospitals and other emergency facilities switched to generators, he noted in a message on Telegram. During the drone attacks a 10-year old boy was injured, he indicated.

Repair work has been ongoing, resulting in an update from local authorities as follows: “Following last night’s work by our energy and emergency services, there is still a partial power outage in 24 settlements, affecting 5,400 residents – this includes Belgorod as well as the Belgorod, Valuyki, Volokonovka, Graivoron and Shebekino districts.”

Ukraine’s President Zelensky meanwhile seized upon the rare development to proclaim to the Russian public that this is what Ukrainians are experiencing on a daily basis.

He also warned in an online written message that Russians must bear the ‘cost’ of the war:

“The Russians do not understand the cost of all these blackouts, of all the hardships that the people of Ukraine experience and endure during this war. And this is not even a question of their morality, which they lack, but of their physical perception,” he stated.

“They must understand the price of this. Ukraine strikes back, hitting military targets and energy facilities that sell their energy resources,” he continued, before stating further: “Russia sells its energy resources and then uses that money exclusively for war. That is why Ukraine is taking absolutely just steps.”

Russia has condemned the attack on its infrastructure, while engaging in stepped-up attacks of its own on Ukraine’s energy grid and vital infrastructure.

Both sides over the last months have clearly increased their all-out assaults on each other’s energy and weapons production sites, with the situation sliding, and aerial warfare growing more intense by the week.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 04:15

Germany’s “Debt Boom”: Merz’s €500 Billion Gamble Is Keynesian Madness On Steroids

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Germany’s “Debt Boom”: Merz’s €500 Billion Gamble Is Keynesian Madness On Steroids

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe 

In Berlin’s government circles, anticipation is rising: the massive debt program is ready for launch. Soon, the 500-billion-euro credit package—disguised as a “special fund”—will hit the economy like a tidal wave, supposedly to free the country from its chronic recession.

Looking back, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s term in office will likely be remembered for one thing above all: his gigantic debt orgy. Half a trillion euros in new borrowing—added on top of the already planned annual deficit of 3.3% of GDP—are supposed to reignite the faltering economic engine over the next decade.

Maastricht Is History

Year after year, the debt mountain, already 65% of GDP, will grow by another 1.15% in new debt. The annual net borrowing thus climbs to 4.6%—a far cry from the once “sacred” Maastricht thresholds. Those days are long gone. Berlin hopes for a Keynesian miracle, ignoring the fact that such policies always deepen structural problems rather than solving them.

According to Handelsblatt, citing insider sources, Economics Minister Katharina Reiche (CDU) will present the new growth figures on Wednesday.

Her ministry’s outlook aligns closely with the joint forecast of Germany’s leading economic institutes: both the DIW and RWI now expect GDP growth of 1.3% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027.

All of them are counting on the debt stimulus—more is better, and qualitative questions or the limits of economic planning have long since disappeared from view. The belief that the economy can be centrally managed is now dogma in Berlin. The free market is treated as an adversary.

Merz’s “Turning Point”

Chancellor Merz recently declared a “turnaround” in investment flows. After years of massive capital flight, he now claims that money is returning to Germany. He seems to believe that the additional €50 billion in new loans—mostly directed into climate projects, infrastructure, and military expansion—will trigger a private investment boom. Through state guarantees, private capital is to be “mobilized.”

It’s a wager that debt-driven stimulus will revive the economy. In reality, it’s Habeck-style logic—industrial decay and bankruptcies are baked into the cake.

Label Fraud and Voodoo Economics

This “growth” is a statistical illusion. It doesn’t reflect market-driven investment or real demand—it’s a debt-fueled mirage, a bonfire lit by the printing press.

The consequences will be devastating: taxpayers will foot the bill through higher taxes or inflation once the new credit mass meets a stagnant economy and limited supply, pushing prices up.

True prosperity and growth must be measured differently. In a free market, goods and services arise from genuine demand. The state, by contrast, becomes a consumption factor that destroys purchasing power through bureaucracy.

Capital Markets Under Strain

The same applies to investment. Ideologically driven projects like the “green transformation” are, in truth, capital destruction programs. They drain scarce resources from the private sector, drive up financing costs, and tighten the labor market by tying up workers in unproductive bureaucracies.

For context: the state’s share of GDP currently stands at about 50%.

With a planned new debt ratio of 4.7% next year and projected GDP growth of only 1.3%, the private sector would need to shrink by roughly 3.4% in real terms to make the math work.

In other words: Germany is already deep in a debt spiral where each additional euro of public borrowing yields diminishing growth. The government plans to raise spending another 4–5% next year—piling more weight onto the private economy’s back. As the state expands, the productive backbone contracts. Berlin calls it “progress.”

The “New Dawn” of the Merz Government

The administration is now preparing to inject its vast debt package into the parched channels of the green subsidy industry and the emerging war economy. On German Unity Day, Merz wrapped this in lofty rhetoric—speaking of renewal, vigor, and optimism, urging citizens not to be paralyzed by fear.

But behind this staged optimism lies nothing of substance. Not a word about who will ultimately pay the bill for this credit-fueled firework—through taxes, inflation, and the erosion of savings. This isn’t a “new dawn.” It’s a demolition party.

While Berlin and Brussels double down on propping up their state-fed pseudo-industries, others are moving in the opposite direction. In the U.S., fiscal burdens for citizens and businesses are falling. In Florida, lawmakers are even discussing abolishing property tax altogether.

Washington is deregulating the energy sector, freeing it from the CO₂ straitjacket—while in Germany, every effort to restore market order gets buried under green dogma.

March Into Eco-Socialism

Quite the opposite: Berlin is already paving the way to refinance its debt binge through higher inheritance taxes and the abolition of the spousal tax break. Merz is working overtime to expand an already overextended state sector—now consuming more than half of the economy—while crowding out private enterprise step by step.

His pledge to cut bureaucratic costs by €16 billion and eliminate 8,000 public jobs belongs in the realm of political fairy tales. The distribution of the new debt torrent alone will require thousands of new administrators.

Germany is on a fatal path—into a new form of eco-socialism where the state is once again the center of the universe and the market is reduced to a mere auxiliary engine to keep the fragile edifice afloat for a little while longer.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 03:30

AppLovin Craters 15% After Bloomberg Reports SEC Investigating Company Over Its Data Collection Practices

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AppLovin Craters 15% After Bloomberg Reports SEC Investigating Company Over Its Data Collection Practices

Shares of controversial short seller target AppLovin were leveled in late trading Monday, falling more than 15% one point after it was reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the company over its data-collection practices, according to a Bloomberg exclusive.

Bloomberg writes that the probe, handled by SEC officials focused on cyber and emerging technologies, centers on claims the company broke platform partners’ service agreements to deliver more targeted ads. The review stems from a whistleblower complaint filed earlier this year and several short-seller reports, though the SEC hasn’t accused AppLovin or its executives of wrongdoing.

AppLovin said it “regularly engage[s] with regulators and if we get inquiries we address them in the ordinary course. Material developments, if any, would be disclosed through the appropriate public channels.” The SEC declined to comment, citing its limited press response during the government shutdown.

The plunge comes despite the company nearly doubling its market value this year to more than $230 billion and being added to the S&P 500 Index in September, fueled by demand for AI-driven ad tools.

Short sellers, including Fuzzy Panda and Muddy Waters, have alleged AppLovin used unauthorized “fingerprinting” to track users across apps and sites, in violation of Apple’s rules and until recently, Google’s policies. Muddy Waters called it “another scammy ad tech company” in their slide deck on the company. 

CEO Adam Foroughi dismissed the reports as “littered with inaccuracies” and denied creating “alternative accurate and persistent identifiers, typically called device fingerprints.”

In March, AppLovin hired attorney Alex Spiro of Quinn Emanuel to run an “independent review and investigation into recent short report activity.” The company said the work is ongoing and aimed at uncovering the origins of “clearly false reports.”

Spiro, a partner at Quinn Emanuel, has represented high-profile clients including companies like Tesla as well as figures such as Elon Musk, Robert Kraft, Jay-Z, Alec Baldwin, Megan Thee Stallion, Naomi Osaka, Mick Jagger, Charles Oakley, and New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

AppLovin’s partners include Meta, Amazon, and Google, though it isn’t clear which relationships are under review. There’s no indication the SEC is examining the conduct of those partners.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 02:45

Spanish Cops Uncover Fraud Network Of Fake Residencies & Sham Marriages Used By Illegals

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Spanish Cops Uncover Fraud Network Of Fake Residencies & Sham Marriages Used By Illegals

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The Spanish National Police has announced the arrest of 12 people in Vic for orchestrating fraudulent partnerships between Spaniards and illegal immigrants, part of a growing Europe-wide problem involving forged documents, sham marriages, and black markets for residency permits.

According to police, the network operating from the Catalonian town specialized in manufacturing fake family links to secure residence permits reserved for relatives of EU citizens.

As reported by 20 Minutos, the investigation began in November 2024, when authorities noticed a cluster of suspicious applications. In each case, the foreign applicant was living illegally in Spain and claimed to be in a stable partnership with a Spanish citizen. All applicants listed the same address on Rambla del Passeig, which investigators discovered was in fact a café.

The fraud unraveled when police found that the couples had not registered with the official Registry of Stable Partnerships and instead submitted forged documents to immigration officials. Among the arrested is the alleged mastermind who arranged the sham marriages, provided the fake paperwork, and advised clients on how to present their applications.

At least five foreigners managed to obtain legal residency before the scheme was uncovered, halting their deportations and granting them full EU benefits. In total, 14 applications were examined, with authorities seizing forged registration forms, partnership certificates, and payroll slips.

The case follows a separate investigation in northern Spain back in February, where police dismantled a ring arranging marriages of convenience between Spanish women and foreign men seeking legal residency. A lawyer from Miranda de Ebro, a male recruiter, and a female intermediary were arrested after police uncovered 13 planned sham marriages. Migrants allegedly paid up to €10,000 each to be paired with a Spanish partner, while women were offered between €3,000 and €4,000 to go through with the marriage.

Spanish authorities noted that such networks are lucrative for those involved. In 2020, another criminal group was disbanded for arranging over 50 sham marriages for Indian and Pakistani migrants, charging €20,000 each. That network had members operating across Barcelona, Valencia, and Sitges.

The Spanish operations are far from isolated. Earlier this year in France, prosecutors charged a civil servant from the foreigners’ admission service in Nancy with corruption and fraud for helping irregular migrants stay in the country. The official allegedly accepted bribes of €25,000 per case, altering documents to approve residence applications. Investigators traced at least 15 fraudulent files to her office, sparking a judicial probe into her network of accomplices and beneficiaries.

Similarly, last month in Germany, an investigation by German broadcasters NTV and RTL, along with Stern magazine, revealed a booming black market on TikTok for forged integration and language certificates — a prerequisite for permanent residency or citizenship in Germany.

Under German law, foreign nationals must demonstrate language proficiency and integration by passing tests administered by accredited providers such as Telc or adult education centers. Yet on TikTok, vendors openly advertise fake certificates with messages like “A1, A2, B1, B2, C1, C2, no school, no exam.” Videos in Arabic, Turkish, and Albanian promise fast-track paperwork, with prices ranging from €750 for basic certificates to €2,700 for higher-level documentation. Family “discounts” were even offered for multiple applicants.

Investigators also found forged driver’s licenses and industry qualification certificates circulating on the platform. Posts routinely attracted hundreds of thousands of views, with users openly commenting with requests for prices and availability.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/07/2025 – 02:00