Nearly every physical good in the modern economy is transported or stored in a corrugated cardboard box. That’s why box shipments act as a reliable real-time economic barometer, especially very useful now, as the government shutdown enters day 33 and key agencies like the BLS have halted official economic data releases, leaving private high-frequency data sets to fill the void.

The latest box shipment data from Bloomberg, citing a report by the Fibre Box Association, shows some of the weakest volumes in years, reflecting waning consumer sentiment and potentially signaling a subdued holiday shopping season. These shipments were at their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2015.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted that box orders remained flat or below normal in October, while consumer sentiment hit a five-month low and manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month. 

The economic picture is cloudy: US manufacturing surveys were mixed in October, while Goldman analysts warned the other day about waning consumer sentiment. 

“We’re not getting a lot of lift, obviously, from the economy,” Packaging Corp of America President Thomas Hassfurther warned last month, adding, “And these starts and stops that we’ve seen consistently go on throughout the year relative to tariffs and a bunch of other things certainly are impacting the business.”

Here are dismal earnings from top box makers companies point to a slowing economy: 

• Smurfit Westrock posted an 8.7% YoY decline in Q3 North American box volumes, sending shares to their lowest since mid-2024.

• Packaging Corp. of America shares also slid, and International Paper cut its sales outlook for both 2025 and 2027, triggering a nearly 13% stock plunge.

• International Paper now expects US box shipments to fall 1–1.5% in 2025, reversing earlier forecasts for growth, citing soft consumer sentiment, trade uncertainty, and a sluggish housing market. CEO Andy Silvernail said targets were “obviously” adjusted downward absent a “major pickup” in US and European volumes.

Dismal box shipments and earnings build on an earlier report from Deloitte’s holiday sales forecast released in early September, which warned that the upcoming holiday shopping season could see one of the slowest growth rates since the pandemic (read report). 

Meanwhile.

Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP tracker at 4.0% https://t.co/CUj9betrQL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2025

Just a mixed picture. 

Update (1405ET):

Kimberly-Clark shares remain down around 14.5% in late-afternoon trading.  If the losses hold into the close, it would mark the company’s steepest one-day drop since October 16, 1987, or just days before the Black Monday crash on October 19, 1987. Earlier, the Kleenex maker unveiled plans to acquire Tylenol producer Kenvue in a $48.7 billion cash-and-stock deal. The announcement sent Kenvue soaring, up 20%. 

Shares of Kimberly-Clark are at their lowest point since late 2019. 

Wall Street analysts are divided on the proposed merger between Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue. Some expect short-term pressure on the stock, while others praised the merger as “strategically transformative”…

Commentary from Wall Street desks (courtsey of Bloomberg):

RBC Capital (Nik Modi)

• Says the deal is strategically transformative for Kimberly-Clark in the long run as it adds significant positive diversification to its business mix

• “We believe it will take investors some time to process the long-term implications and would expect KMB shares to come under pressure today and likely trade sideways until investors get more context around recent KVUE regulation/litigation headlines as well as confidence that Kimberly-Clark can turn Kenvue’s business around“

Vital Knowledge (Adam Crisafulli)

• “KVUE brings some iconic brands into the KMB umbrella, and the ~$21/shr purchase price isn’t extremely expensive (this only gets KVUE back to where it was trading in Sept.), especially considering ~$2B in synergies, but KMB investors will be wary of the deal given the mounting legal risks facing Tylenol”

• Says the consumer staples industry has struggled for several quarters due to macro pressures. KVUE has experienced particular strain given company-specific challenges, such as management turnover and scrutiny from the White House

Bloomberg Intelligence (Diana Gomes)

• Says Kimberly-Clark’s cash-and-stock offer for Kenvue reinforces the view that any recovery in Kenvue sales is based on an aggressive step-up in investment, which would act as a further drag on mid-term profit

• “Another Kenvue organic sales miss in 3Q and lack of overlap in over-the-counter and beauty limits realization of synergies, pegged at 8% to combined operating expenses” 

 *   *   * 

Consumer products company Kimberly-Clark Corporation announced it will acquire Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at nearly $49 billion, marking one of the largest consumer health mergers in history. 

Kimberly-Clark revealed in a press release that the deal values Kenvue at 14.3x its latest twelve months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA. In return, Kenvue shareholders will receive $3.50 in cash and .14625 Kimberly-Clark shares per Kenvue share, for a total of about $ 21.01 per share. The deal is valued at $48.7 billion. 

The deal is expected to close in 2H 2026. Upon completion, Kimberly-Clark shareholders will own 54% of the combined company, while Kenvue shareholders will own 46%. Both boards have unanimously approved the acquisition. JPMorgan Chase is providing committed financing for the deal. 

The merger unites two mega consumer-product giants, creating a global health and wellness powerhouse with top brands, including Kleenex, Huggies, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine, and Band-Aid, that reach consumers worldwide. 

Here’s the justification for the merger:

• Combines Kimberly-Clark’s commercial execution and digital marketing capabilities with Kenvue’s science-backed innovation and healthcare professional networks.

• Expands global footprint across key growth categories in personal care and health.

• Enhanced R&D and quality investments to accelerate product innovation and address evolving consumer health needs.

• Kimberly-Clark CEO Mike Hsu will continue leading the merged company, supported by senior executives from both firms.

Based on Kimberly-Clark’s current projections, the merger would generate 2025 annual net revenues of about $32 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $7 billion. 

All sounds great, but this comes at a time when Tylenol faces political scrutiny via the Trump administration, warning mothers to avoid giving their newborns acetaminophen.

Related:

• “Don’t Take It”: Trump Warns Pregnant Women To Avoid Tylenol Over Autism Concerns

• Tylenol Manufacturer Resists Proposed Label Changes

In markets, Kimberly-Clark shares tumbled 15%, while Kenvue shares jumped 20%. 

The question now is whether government regulators will approve the deal, especially given President Trump’s recent comments surrounding Tylenol.

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China will halt investigations targeting U.S. companies involved in the semiconductor supply chain and issue licenses to exporters of rare earth and other minerals critical to high-tech industries, according to the White House.

Following months of trade tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping on Oct. 30 sat down together in South Korea, to make a deal on a range of issues that have strained ties between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing agreed to postpone, for one year, the implementation of the export controls on rare earths and related products that it had announced on Oct. 9. In addition, the Chinese regime will “terminate various investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations,” according to a fact sheet released by the White House on Nov. 1.

As part of the agreement, the Chinese regime will issue “general licenses” valid for exports of rare earth, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite, the fact sheet stated. The licenses are designed for the “benefit of U.S. end users and their suppliers around the world,” effectively lifting the restrictions the regime imposed in October 2022 and April of this year, it said.

The White House didn’t specify which U.S. technology companies might be excluded from Beijing’s scrutiny. The regime’s most recent target is Qualcomm. The regime’s State Administration of Market Supervision launched an antitrust probe into the U.S. chip-making giant on Oct. 10.

Under the deal, China will also take “appropriate measures to ensure the resumption of trade from Nexperia’s facilities in China, allowing production of critical legacy chips to flow to the rest of the world,” the White House said.

Though headquartered in the Netherlands, chipmaker Nexperia is owned by Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer Wingtech Technology.

The regime recently blocked Nexperia from shipping certain products, the company said on Oct. 14, citing an export control notice it received from China’s commerce ministry. That sparked concerns about critical disruptions in the supply chain for U.S. and European automakers.

On Nov. 1, the Chinese commerce ministry issued a statement indicating plans to relax restrictions on goods produced by Nexperia’s Chinese branches.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News shortly after the Trump–Xi summit on Oct. 30 that Washington and Beijing could sign the trade deal as soon as this week.

There’s no question that Western Hemisphere defense is back in the Trump 2.0 era. 

In fact, it’s a theme we’ve explained to readers throughout the year: the Pentagon’s strategy to reorient U.S. defense priorities away from endless wars in the Middle East and toward safeguarding the homeland and the Western Hemisphere as the world fractures into a dangerous bipolar state. This pivot is commonly referred to as “Monroe Doctrine 2.0.”

The focus has been squarely on the Caribbean Sea, particularly off the coast of Venezuela, where an unprecedented buildup of U.S. military assets is underway, including missile destroyers, 10,000 soldiers, 6,000 sailors, surveillance aircraft, and what may have even been a dry bomb run by B-1 bombers last month.

More interesting has been the expanded deployment of high-altitude surveillance blimps, equipped with Lockheed Martin L-88 radar systems that detect aircraft and/or vessels over hundreds of miles. This expansion of blimps is feeding the Caribbean Air and Marine Operations Center and other command-and-control hubs, giving U.S. forces real-time situational awareness across the region.

Defense Blog reports: 

The United States has intensified the use of its tethered aerostat radar system operating out of Lajas, Puerto Rico, expanding persistent airborne surveillance across the Caribbean amid growing regional security concerns.

The long-standing system, equipped with the Lockheed Martin–built Tethered Aerostat Radar System (TARS), has been flying more frequently in recent weeks, according to defense monitoring sources

Created for border security and counter-narcotics missions, the Puerto Rico TARS site now acts as a forward radar post, monitoring and expanding the U.S. military’s surveillance network, bolstering military, Homeland Security, and counter-smuggling operations in the region. This is much cheaper to operate than conventional patrol aircraft or warships.

In short, the expanded deployment of TARS is more evidence of bolstering hemispheric operations and provides an early-warning sentry for both narcotic and national security operations. 

By Benjamin Picton, senior markets strategist at Rabobank

Welcome, Monsieur, sit yourself down,
And meet the best innkeeper in town…

Markets last week were understandably in risk-on mode in reaction to the sit-down meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the APEC conference. The US agreed to cut fentanyl-related tariffs in half to 10ppts in return for cooperation from China on stemming the flow of precursor compounds into the United States. China agreed to delay the imposition of export controls on critical rare earths for one year, and to resume purchases of US soybeans to the tune of 12mmt this season and 25mmt in each of the next three years. Both sides agreed to delay the introduction of port service fees and the US – crucially – made no commitments to provide China with access to NVIDIA’s advanced Blackwell chips or revise its position on Taiwan. On the latter, Donald Trump yesterday told 60 Minutes that the topic never came up because “they know the consequences” if China was to attack Taiwan.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said that China had made a “real mistake” by threatening to withhold rare earths from foreign countries. “It’s one thing to put the gun on the table. It’s another thing to fire shots in the air.” He also chided the “grumpy old men” of the Wall Street Journal editorial board for thinking that China would not use the leverage over rare earth supply chains that it had spent 25 years building while the US was “asleep at the switch”.

Master of the house, doling out the charm,
Ready with a handshake and an open palm…

The US has been quick to capitalize on the sense of urgency created by China’s willingness to exploit its dominant position. Bessent says that the US has now rallied its allies to “get out from under the sword” that China holds over other countries by building out their own rare earth supply chains.

Trump has recently inked deals with Australia, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam that are designed to create alternative sources of supply. The US may yet conclude a similar deal with Brazil – which holds the world’s second-largest rare earths deposits after China – after President Lula last week intimated that his country was on the cusp of concluding a trade deal with the United States. Brazil is seeking ways to convince the USA to reduce its punitive 50% tariff, but progress on a deal may be hampered by Lula’s perceived closeness to China and policy differences over Venezuela, where Trump told 60 Minutes that the Maduro regime’s days are numbered.

For its part, the EU is also exploring the potential for rare earths supply deals with Australia, Canada, Greenland, Chile, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine while also working on plans for domestic processing, joint purchasing and stockpiling of materials.

Glad to do a friend a favor,
Doesn’t cost me to be nice,
But nothing gets you nothing,
Everything has got a little price!

Trump also used meetings with the leaders of Japan and South Korea to extract commitments to provide capital investment into beefing-up US shipbuilding capacity, with commitments made in return to facilitate the construction of nuclear-propelled submarines for South Korea. We’ve previously described these kinds of investment commitments as a ‘reverse Marshall Plan’ to recapitalize the US industrial base (as the US did for Europe after WWII), but the intent goes well beyond blue-collar job creation for the MAGA base. The focus on shipbuilding is aimed squarely at closing the current production gap with China and perhaps allowed Trump to make concessions on port service charges in his subsequent meeting with President Xi.

In a similar vein, the FT yesterday reported that Trump administration officials are discussing ways to encourage other countries to adopt the US Dollar as their official currency to counter China’s efforts to internationalize the Renminbi and erode the Dollar’s position as world reserve currency (as we wrote about last week). Argentina is seen as an obvious candidate for Dollarization by some, given its history of currency crises, friendly government and recent history of financial bailouts orchestrated by the US Treasury.

Prospective homebuyers in Australia might also be attracted to the idea of taking responsibility for maintaining the purchasing power of the currency out of the hands of the RBA. Figures this morning revealed that Aussie house prices are now growing at the fastest pace in more than two years following three RBA rates cuts and some fiscal pump-priming dressed up as help for first homebuyers. Perhaps Dollarization down under wouldn’t be such a bad idea?

Charge ‘em for the lice, extra for the mice,
Two percent for looking in the mirror twice…

Meanwhile, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering a 20% ‘settling-up’ tax on the assets of people emigrating from the country. The new tax would reportedly raise about £2bn/year and would apply to the sale of assets such as company shares. The Guardian quotes an unnamed government source claiming that Treasury is currently modelling the policy ahead of the November budget. The source is apparently stressing that no decisions have yet been taken, but news that the policy is being considered surely raises the risk of capital flight as wealthy Britons are further incentivized to get their money out of the country before the Exchequer can change the rules.

The search for new sources of revenue is becoming desperate as the FT last week reported that the Office of Budget Responsibility is likely to downgrade its forecast for trend productivity growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points, thereby blowing a £21bn hole in the budget. The matter is further complicated by Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase any of the three big taxes (income tax, VAT or national insurance), and the inability of Reeves and PM Starmer to secure backbench support for relatively modest cuts to the welfare budget earlier in the year. Consequently, the UK is potentially facing something of a Laffer curve moment as the unstoppable force of government spending faces the immovable object of fiscal reality.

When it comes to fixing prices,
There are a lot of tricks I knows…

While the UK considers a soak the rich strategy to deal with its budget constraints, New York City looks set to elect Zohran Mamdani as Mayor. Mamdani has run on a left-wing populist platform of price controls for rents, groceries and childcare, which he says will be funded by taxing corporations and the 1%. Donald Trump has been critical of Mamdani, describing him as a “communist” in his interview with 60 Minutes, while New York Governor Kathy Hochul (a Mamdani supporter) has prompted questions about the likelihood of the Mamdani program actually being implemented after telling the ‘Raging Moderates’ podcast that she is “concerned about outmigration of people who are the ones who are supporting our budget.”

Perhaps the Laffer curve is about to be tested in NYC, too?

Ukraine has sent special forces to the embattled eastern city of Pokrovsk, the country’s top military commander announced over the weekend, after the Kremlin has said that thousands of Ukrainian troops are surrounded in Pokrovsk.

The strategic city is considered to be “the gateway to Donetsk” – and its loss would be a huge blow to Ukraine’s logistical abilities across the eastern front lines. Kiev has rejected Putin’s claim to have the whole city surrounded and blockaded. “We are holding Pokrovsk,” Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrskii wrote on Facebook Saturday. “A comprehensive operation to destroy and dislodge enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing.”

Kiev’s response involves the special forces units being sent to bolster potentially trapped Ukrainian forces – though this could soon prove too little, too-late. “Kyiv announced Saturday it had deployed special forces to the eastern city of Pokrovsk, where it is under pressure from an intense Russian assault involving thousands of troops,” The Moscow Times wrote.

Recent days have seen Moscow and Kiev issue conflicting back-and-forth statements about the fighting in the city, with Russia’s Ministry of Defense claiming that its troops had already defeated the Ukrainian special forces deployed there. It even later released videos purportedly showing two captured Ukrainian soldiers.

Gen. Syrskii has admitted that Ukrainian forces are facing their “hardest” time there currently. But he’s still rejected Moscow’s narrative of total battlefield encirclement of the city.

“The main burden lies on the shoulders of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, particularly UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] operators and assault units,” Syrskii has said.

Russian officials over much of the past year of fighting there have consistently articulated that seizing Pokrovsk and the nearby city of Kostiantynivka would allow Moscow to advance north toward the last major Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro. 

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines. 

The city’s defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia’s access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will indeed be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

Update from the Pokrovsk direction:

Russian forces have continued to make significant advances, and as a result, most of Pokrovsk is now under Russian control.

West of Pokrovsk, Russian forces established full control over the railway line from Udachne, and began pushing beyond… pic.twitter.com/KrMi4RzqiW

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) November 2, 2025

Russia’s military has said that Ukrainian forces have been suffering steady and immense losses seeking to defend Pokrovsk.

“At least 200 Russian infantry armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand-held rockets were moving freely in the southern districts of city, at times ambushing Ukrainian defense forces still generally in control of central and northern districts, according to public statements by army officers to Ukrainian media,” according to Kyiv Post reporting on the situation last week.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Trump administration has banned the media from an area of the White House they previously had access to after some reporters were discovered surreptitiously capturing video of sensitive information.

Officials revealed that reporters have also been found ‘spying’ on private, closed-door meetings in the White House and wandering into already restricted areas near the Oval Office, in order to “ambush” Cabinet officials after private meetings.

The White House released a memo Friday stating:

This memorandum directs the prohibition of press passholders from accessing Room 140 in the West Wing, also known as “Upper Press,” which is situated adjacent to the Oval Office, without an appointment. This policy will ensure adherence to best practices pertaining to access to sensitive material.

As a result of recent structural changes to the National Security Council, the White House is now responsible for directing all communications, including on all national security matters. In this capacity, members of the White House Communications Staff are routinely engaging with sensitive material.

In order to protect such material, and maintain coordination between National Security Council Staff and White House Communications Staff, members of the press are no longer permitted to access Room 140 without prior approval in the form of an appointment with an authorized White House Staff Member.

Members of the press may continue to freely engage with White House Press Aides in the Lower Press Area outside of the Briefing Room. In order to meet with White House Communications Staff in Room 140 or “Upper Press,” press must request an appointment by emailing Press.Appointment@who.eop.gov. This policy is effective immediately.

Ironically, the restrictions being put in place are a rollback to Clinton era White House rules.

BREAKING🚨: Trump White House returns to early (ultimately reversed) Clinton WH policy, cuts off access for credentialed press to upper press office. FLASHBACK: https://t.co/Sys5FdmU3v pic.twitter.com/o7ZqfhoZQp

— Josh Gerstein (@joshgerstein) October 31, 2025

Communications Director Steven Cheung later clarified the reasons for the crack down, providing more details:

Some reporters have been caught secretly recording video and audio of our offices, along with pictures of sensitive info, without permission

Some reporters have wandered into restricted areas (our offices are feet away from the Oval Office)

Some reporters have been caught… https://t.co/tosUqrcKGt

— Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) October 31, 2025

Post continues…

Some reporters have been caught eavesdropping on private, closed-door meetings.

Cabinet Secretaries routinely come into our office for private meetings, only to be ambushed by reporters waiting outside our doors.

Cheung further outlined that the media can still have “access to lower press where the press team sits and can answer all inquiries,” and “[r]eporters can make appointments to see us in our offices.”

So much for the Trump White House working to be as accessible as possible.

They abused their privilege.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2025

Reporters caught secretly recording and entering restricted areas not “journalists,” they’re violating federal law. Any private citizen would be arrested for attempted espionage or trespassing. Why should the press be above the law @SecretService?

— Andrew Conway (@AIConway08) October 31, 2025

If they were secretly recording anything to do with national security, they should be tried under the espionage act.

— MattyO (@MattyOYT) November 1, 2025

In light of recent hostilities, we need to take extra precautions to secure this administration—not just in terms of personnel, but intel as well.

— The Conservative Alternative (@OldeWorldOrder) October 31, 2025

The move comes after the Pentagon instituted new regulations on the media regarding which outlets can gain credentials to cover the Department of War.

The Pentagon also revised rules on which areas of the building the media can and can not go, citing a need for heightened security and protection against leaks.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Amid the month-long vacuum of macro data, thanks to the shutdown, ‘soft’ survey data has become almost the only leg left standing to judge the economy by (absent the housing data).

Following better-than-expected prints across Europe, and beats in Brazil and Canada, this morning’s S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 52.5 (52.2 exp), up from 52.0 – tracking hard data higher.

That signaled a third successive month that the S&P Global PMI has posted above the critical 50.0 no-change mark and indicative of a solid improvement in operating conditions that was in line with the survey’s trend pace.

The PMI was supported in October by concurrent and accelerated gains in both output and new orders.

Production was increased at a solid pace, whilst the gain in new orders was the best recorded in 20 months. Growth in new work has been registered consistently throughout the year to date, albeit to varying degrees, and panelists noted in October an uplift in market demand and success in securing new contracts. However, October’s growth was increasingly reliant on the domestic market as new export orders faltered.

BUT…

…as usual in the baffle ’em with bullshit world, ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, falling from 49.1 to 48.7 (worse than the 49.5 exp) – the 8th straight month of contraction (below 50)

Source: Bloomberg

“US manufacturers reported a solid start to the fourth quarter with production rising at an increased rate in response to an encouragingly robust jump in new orders,” according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“However, lift the hood and the picture is not so healthy.”

“Most worrying is the unprecedented rise in unsold stock reported in October, widely linked to weaker than anticipated sales to customers, especially in export markets, which could trigger a downshifting of production in the coming months unless demand revives.

Indeed, ISM shows prices falling fast and new orders and employment improving MoM (though both below 50 – contracting).

The index of prices paid for raw materials fell 3.9 points to 58, the lowest since the start of the year. Since a recent peak in April, during the height of the tariffs rollout, the price gauge has dropped nearly 12 points…

Source: Bloomberg

Companies have also become less optimistic about the year ahead, with sentiment back down close to the gloomy levels seen around the April tariff announcements.

“US trade policy uncertainties are again a big factor in dampening business spirits, with tariff policies being increasingly blamed both on rising export losses and import supply chain disruptions.

These export and import worries are being exacerbated by more domestically focused political concerns, including the federal shutdown, which are manifesting themselves most prominently in consumer-focused industries.”

Tariffs remained a key source of higher input costs during October with S&P Global’s latest data showing another round of historically elevated inflation – albeit the lowest since February.

Selling prices were raised markedly in response, and to a quicker degree than September’s recent low.

Finally, Williamson notes that business confidence among producers of consumer goods is now down to its lowest for two years “as firms growing increasingly worried about household spending in the US and falling sales to consumers in export markets.”

President Trump offered some candid and revealing thoughts on his Russian and Chinese counterparts Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during a CBS 60 Minutes interview which aired Sunday.

Trump has not appeared on the program in a half-decade, but had much to say, especially regarding America’s two top ‘superpower’ rivals. He called Putin and Xi “very strong leaders” who are “tough” and “smart” but which are “not to be toyed with.”

When asked which of the two was more difficult to deal with, Trump replied “both”. He described they are “Both tough. Both smart. They’re both very strong leaders. These are people not to be toyed with” – and seemed conciliatory without going on the verbal attack.

He followed with more commentary which suggested a high degree of respect for them as leaders. “They’re serious people, not the type to walk in talking about how nice the weather is,” Trump conceded.

Trump also in the interview took the opportunity to reiterate that the Russia-Ukraine war would never have occurred under his leadership.

“That was a war that would’ve never happened if I was president,” he said, and then noted Putin had himself acknowledged this. “I inherited a country where Putin thinks he’s winning. Joe Biden was the president when it happened.”

It was at this point in the interview that Trump said he has “a very good relationship” with Putin while expressing hope that the US-Moscow relations can be turned around.

Despite setbacks, including the effective cancelation of the Budapest summit, Trump expressed he hopes to get a lasting truce in Ukraine “in a couple months” – though battlefield realities suggest this remains wishful thinking and not based in any solid developments toward peace or compromise.

“We’re gonna get it done… [Putin] wants to come in and he wants to trade with us, and he wants to make a lot of money for Russia, and I think that’s great,” Trump said.

As for China, one notable moment was addressing rare-earth minerals and potential tit-for-tat amid a trade war. “We got no rare-earth threat… We have tremendous amounts of dollars pouring in, because we have very big tariffs, almost 50%,” Trump explained.

Russian media has been taking note…

‘Putin & Xi NOT to be toyed with’ — Trump pic.twitter.com/PpS6bdjdUZ

— RT (@RT_com) November 3, 2025

This rhetoric from the president in the 60 Minutes interview seems a marked change compared to that of early September, wherein he said the following:

President Donald Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday of “conspiring against” the United States as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended China’s military parade commemorating the end of World War II and victory over Japan.

“May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Still, the general vibe and tone of the fresh CBS appearance seemed a return to Trump as ‘peace president’ who is more interested in major deal-making around the globe as opposed to starting conflicts. However, we should note that Venezuela would certainly not agree with such a characterization of Washington policy at this point.

US equity futures are signaling a solid start to November, led by Tech with small caps flat, as traders gauge the durability of a seven-month global equity rally fueled recently by strong tech earnings and easing US–China trade tensions. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futs rose 0.6% as of 8:00 am ET. Pre-market, Mag7 are all higher with Semis also bid; Cyclicals poised to lead Defensives with both higher. European and Asian equities also rose. Global bonds softened, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.11%. Commodities are mixed with Ags leading, Metals weaker, and Energy mostly lower ex-natgas. Oil fluctuated after OPEC+ signaled that it’ll pause output increases next quarter ahead of expected demand declines / supply glut. China suspended curbs on rare earths and suspends chips investigation. Gold first dropped but then rebounded back over $4k after China imposed a 7% value-added tax on gold for jewellery and industrial use. Today SCOTUS will hear IEEPA tariff challenges with JPM noting that the market expects those tariffs to be struck down and later replaced by sectoral tariffs and could trigger a near-term squeeze/broadening subject to moves in the bond market. We also get US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and October ISM manufacturing (10am); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (12pm) and Cook (2pm). Earnings from Palantir and Diamondback Energy follow later in the day. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +1.8%, Meta +0.9%, Alphabet +0.5%, Amazon +0.2%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple +0.01%, Microsoft +0.4%).

• Alvotech (ALVO) plunges 23% after the drugmaker said the FDA rejected its biologics application for a biosimilar candidate to Johnson & Johnson’s Simponi, and cut its 2025 outlook as a result.
• Cipher Mining (CIFR) rises 21% after signing a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon to provide turnkey space and power for AI workloads.
• Eaton (ETN) slips 1% after agreeing to buy the Boyd Thermal business of Boyd Corp. from Goldman Sachs for $9.5 billion.
• IREN Ltd. (IREN) soars 22% after Microsoft Corp. signed an approximately $9.7 billion deal to purchase AI cloud capacity from the Australian company, becoming its largest customer.
• Kenvue (KVUE) jumps 19% after Kimberly-Clark agreed to buy the struggling Tylenol maker in a deal worth roughly $40 billion. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) shares slump 15%.
• Liquidia (LQDA) rises 11% after the drugmaker reported revenue for the third quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate. The company also reported loss per share for the quarter that was lower than expectations.
• New Gold Inc. (NGD) climbs 10% after agreeing to be acquired by Coeur Mining Inc. for about $7 billion in an all-stock deal.
• SM Energy Co. (SM) and Civitas Resources Inc. (CIVI) agreed to combine in an all-stock transaction, the latest move to consolidate the US shale industry. Shares of SM Energy are up about 1%, while the stock of Civitas Resources (CIVI) rises 2%.
• Vertiv (VRT) rises 1.8% after entering into an agreement to buy Purge Rite Intermediate from Milton Street Capital LLC for ~$1b in cash at closing plus the potential additional consideration of up to $250 million in cash based on achieving certain 2026 performance metrics.

In corporate news, Pfizer sued Metsera and Novo Nordisk to block Novo’s rival bid for the obesity startup. Alphabet is expected to raise a total of at least €3 billion ($3.5 billion) in six euro-denominated bonds, to help fund AI expansion. BP agreed to divest stakes in US shale assets to Sixth Street for $1.5 billion as it seeks to shore up its balance sheet and win back investor confidence. 

The six-month bull run in US stocks is set to continue as markets brush aside concerns over stretched valuations, with earnings beating expectations and big tech fueling optimism around AI. Investors are gearing up for earnings from Palantir and a slate of private economic reports for fresh direction on the path for interest rates. Palantir, one of the year’s biggest beneficiaries of the artificial-intelligence boom with a 165% gain, was poised rally further ahead of results due after the close. 

Investors are set to again rely on private data this week given the government shutdown, which includes the ISM manufacturing index on Monday and ADP employment figures on Wednesday. While there is a risk that a flood of economic data could hit once the shutdown is over and reignite volatility, the subdued VIX gauge has seen call buying at a high pace. And speaking of the shutdown, it is on track to become the longest in history. 

“Earnings growth is there, the momentum is there and on a macro level — although it’s still very volatile — things are moving in the right direction,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Global Services. “I don’t see any reason for the rally not to consolidate and even go higher.”

With earnings in from six of the Mag-7, quarterly profit growth is tracking at ~27% for the group, compared with 15% expansion anticipated before the reporting season started, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Nvidia is now larger than six of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 Index and all but five of the world’s stock markets.

Out of the 318 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 83% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 13% have missed. The S&P 500 is on pace for 13% earnings growth, up from 7.2% expected at the beginning of October. US earnings are surging across the board with the median stock in the Russell 3000 tracking its fastest growth since 3Q21, Morgan Stanley said, supporting a view that a new cycle and bull market began in April. Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin sees earnings beats as unprecedented except the Covid reopening in 25 years of data. 

As reported over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile soared to a record $381.7 billion in the third quarter, while the firm declined to buy back shares for a fifth straight quarter. Operating earnings surged 34% as its insurance underwriting profit more than tripled.

In trade, China ended a gold tax break, in a setback for consumers in one of the world’s top bullion markets. The US is expected to suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting next week. China is said to seek buying US wheat for the first time in a year. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.4%, with automakers leading gains after it was announced China would ease its chip export ban. Energy shares advance alongside oil prices as OPEC+ is set to pause its output increases in the first quarter of next year. Autos gain after it was announced China would ease its chip export ban. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• GTT advances as much as 6.2%, to a new record high, following an upgrade to its guidance after the market close on Friday.
• European energy companies are outperforming this morning as oil prices advanced after OPEC+ signaled that it’ll pause output increases next quarter, following a modest hike for next month.
• A2A gains as much as 6.4% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight, saying the firm is an “under-the-radar” potential beneficiary of any Milan-region data center build-out.
• European autos shares rise after it was announced China would ease its chip export ban in a decision that should “alleviate short-term supply risk for OEMs and their suppliers,” say Oddo BHF analysts.
• MFE-MediaForEurope’s Class A shares gain as much as 5.7% as JPMorgan initiates coverage with an overweight rating.
• BFF Bank surges as much as 11%, the most since May, after the Italian firm said the Bank of Italy has lifted the ban on the distribution of profits, which analysts at Deutsche Bank say is fueling a relief rally in the shares.
• Paradox Interactive gains as much as 12% after video-game critics published their reviews of the Swedish studio’s key 2H 2025 release, strategy game Europa Universalis V.
• Davide Campari-Milano shares fall as much as 6%. Italian prosecutors have ordered the seizure of around €1.3 billion in shares from the holding company that controls Campari as part of an alleged tax-fraud probe, according to a statement late Friday.
• Ryanair shares fall as much as 3.6%, taking a breather after ongoing strength in share performance. Europe’s largest budget airline reported post-tax profit in the second quarter that topped estimates, driven by in-line fare growth and strong cost control.
• FLSmidth falls as much as 4.6% after Nordea cut its recommendation on the Danish industrial equipment firm to hold from buy.

Asian stocks rose, lifted by gains in South Korea’s chipmakers after a slew of technology partnerships bolstered sentiment. Equities in Hong Kong extended their advances in afternoon trading.  The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 0.9%, rebounding after two sessions of losses. Gauges in South Korea were the biggest gainers in the region, with the benchmark Kospi hitting a fresh record high. Shares on mainland China reversed early losses to close higher, while those in the Philippines fell. A series of partnerships between Nvidia and some of South Korea’s biggest companies has reinforced optimism in the country’s equities, supported by an improving relationship with the US. Sentiment in Asia also got a boost following several trade deals struck during US President Donald Trump’s tour of the region last week.

In rates, treasuries are marginally cheaper across the curve, following similar price action in German bonds while gilts outperform slightly. US yields are as much as 3bps cheaper on the day with the curve slightly steeper. 10-year near 4.11% outperforms Germany’s and trails UK’s, each by about 1bp. US session includes manufacturing PMIs and at least two Fed speakers. IG dollar issuance slate includes two items so far and is expected to grow, with underwriters anticipating $55 billion this week and around $120 billion for November; Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year new issues. Google announced another massive, 8-part debt deal as the funding scramble to use debt to pay for datacenters continues. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is steady while the Swiss franc is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. Spot gold slips back below $4,000/oz.

In commodities, oil prices are near flat after giving up earlier gains seen after OPEC+ said it planned to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026. WTI crude futures are just below $61 a barrel. Gold trimmed early gains but remained above $4k as haven demand faded, while the dollar held steady. On Friday, China ended a gold tax break, in a setback for consumers in one of the world’s top bullion markets. 

Today’s economic calendar slate includes October S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and October ISM manufacturing (10am); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (12pm) and Cook (2pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.8%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.08%
• VIX +0.4 points at 17.8
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.48
• euro -0.2% at $1.1515
• WTI crude little changed at $60.96/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The Trump administration has begun detailed planning for a potential new mission to send U.S. troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target drug cartels. NBC
• More than 735,000 New Yorkers cast early ballots ahead of Tuesday’s mayoral election, the highest ever early in-person turnout for a nonpresidential vote in the city. NYT
• US Democratic and Republican Senators are talking and focused on finding agreement on FY26 spending bills; the hope being that a spending agreement could help to resolve the shutdown. On spending, talks continued over the weekend and there is some optimism around a resolution. However, there are no signs from Trump/Republicans around giving ground on extending the expiring premium Obamacare subsidies: PunchBowl
• Fed’s Miran (voter) warned that the Fed risks a recession if it doesn’t cut rates rapidly: NYT
• President Trump says that Chinese President Xi Jinping has given him assurances that Beijing would take no action toward its long-stated goal of unifying Taiwan with mainland China while the Republican leader is in office. CNBC
• Trump threatened to take military action in Nigeria and cut off US aid if the government doesn’t halt militants’ “killing of Christians.” The country’s dollar bonds tumbled, suffering the biggest losses across emerging markets. BBG
• Trump urged Senate Republicans to terminate the filibuster rule. Trump separately commented that they will ask the courts how they can legally fund SNAP benefits as soon as possible.
• Bessent said the Trump administration will not appeal the judge’s ruling on SNAP benefits, while he also commented that the Fed should be cutting rates if inflation is dropping, according to an interview with CNN.
• NVDA’s most advanced chips will be reserved for U.S. companies and kept out of China and other countries, U.S. Trump confirmed in 60 Minutes last night. RTRS
• A private gauge of China’s manufacturing activity showed Chinese factories continued to expand production in October, albeit at a slower pace, signaling weaker growth momentum heading into the fourth quarter of the year. China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI for Oct came in at 50.6, down from 51.2 in Sept and a bit below the consensus forecast of 50.7. WSJ
• China is seeking to buy US wheat in what would be the first purchase in more than a year, following last week’s trade truce between the two nations. BBG
• China will suspend implementation of additional export controls on rare-earth metals and terminate investigations targeting US companies in the chip supply chain, the White House said. BBG
• Microsoft and Alphabet plan more deals to build out their AI infrastructure. Microsoft signed a $9.7 billion agreement to buy cloud capacity from Australia’s IREN, giving it to access more Nvidia chips, while Alphabet plans to raise at least €3 billion in a debt offering, a person familiar said. IREN also said it agreed to buy equipment from Dell for $5.8 billion. Shares of both firms jumped in premarket trading. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump commented on Friday about China, in which he stated that he would love to get rid of the extra 10% tariff and that the meeting with China was incredible, while he believes the deal with China will be long-lasting. It was also reported that US President Trump told Chinese President Xi that chip sales are “between you and NVIDIA”.
• US President Trump said the US will not let China have NVIDIA’s (NVDA) most advanced chips, while he also commented that he will not attend Supreme Court tariff case arguments and doesn’t want to do anything to deflect the importance of that decision. Furthermore, Trump posted that the case on tariffs is one of the most important in the history of the country, and if a President is not allowed to use tariffs, the US will be at a major disadvantage against all other countries throughout the world, while he warned if they lose the decision, the US could be reduced to almost third-world status.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China has shown itself to be an unreliable partner in many areas, while he also commented, “we’ll see” if a 10% tariff will be enacted on Canada after the Reagan advertisement, and he is not planning on going to the Supreme Court arguments on trade policy on Wednesday, according to CNN.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said it will consider exemptions for the Nexperia chip export ban. It was separately reported that Nexperia’s Dutch headquarters said it welcomes announcements lifting the block on shipping chips, while the Dutch government said that China talks continue regarding a constructive way forward in Nexperia.
• Chinese President Xi proposed that China and South Korea properly manage differences through friendly consultations, while he called for the sides to strengthen strategic communication and consolidate the foundation of mutual trust. Xi also called for deepening China and South Korea cooperation in emerging sectors such as AI and biopharmaceuticals, as well as urged South Korea to work with China to practice true multilateralism and safeguard the multilateral trading system.
• South Korea’s presidential office said South Korea and China signed 7 MOUs, including a currency swap. It was also reported that a South Korean presidential adviser said they agreed with China to cooperate on stabilising supply chains and will continue working-level communication on China’s ban on Korean culture, while South Korea and China were said to have made progress on China’s effective ban on Korean culture.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said they agreed with Chinese President Xi to build a constructive and stable relationship, while she said they reaffirmed a strong US-Japan alliance through US President Trump’s visit. Furthermore, Takaichi said they are not planning to renegotiate the USD 550bln investment package with the US even after seeing the US-South Korea package.
• Canadian PM Carney met with Japanese PM Takaichi on the APEC sidelines and discussed the potential to expand a productive economic relationship between the two countries, building on USD 32bln in annual two-way merchandise trade, while the Canadian PM’s office said they stand ready to negotiate an even better trade deal for both Canada and the US.
• China’s MOFCOM says China and the EU held in-depth and constructive talks on mutual export control concerns; both sides agreed to maintain dialogue to support stable and smooth supply chains between the economies.
• China is said to be seeking to buy US wheat for the first time in a year, according to Bloomberg sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks trade mostly higher despite a lack of fresh major macro developments over the weekend and with thinned conditions as Japanese markets were shut for a holiday. ASX 200 lacked conviction as gains in tech, energy and financials were offset by weakness in healthcare, real estate and miners, while the RBA also began its two-day policy meeting, where the central bank is unanimously forecast to maintain its Cash Rate at 2.60%. KOSPI rallied to a fresh all-time high amid tech strength with notable gains in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while South Korea and China reportedly signed 7 MOUs and agreed to cooperate on stabilising supply chains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately higher although price action in the mainland was choppy with risk sentiment flimsy as participants digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.

Top Asian News

• Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Chan said the city is set to achieve its annual target of 2%-3% for 2025 and noted that the economy grew 3.8% in Q3, which was the fastest pace of growth since Q4 2023.
• South Korea and Singapore agreed to cooperate on defence technology and signed an MOU on AI and green shipping, according to Korea’s presidential office.
• RBNZ 2025 stress test results noted that large banks are well placed to withstand the solvency and liquidity impact of a severe scenario caused by worsening geopolitical risks.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened modestly mixed and either side of the unchanged mark, but then caught a bid soon after the cash open. Upside lacked any specific drivers, but does come in the context of positive Nexperia-related developments and constructive EU-China trade talks over the weekend. European sectors opened with a negative bias, but are now mixed. Autos is by far the clear outperformer today, driven higher by the Nexperia developments over the weekend. In brief, China is to loosen its chip export ban to Europe – chips which were widely used amongst European automakers; Mercedes-Benz (+3.6%). Basic Resources is found right at the bottom of the pile, following China’s decision to pause rare earth export controls to the EU; Rio Tinto (-1.2%).

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering higher bands of council tax to target expensive homes, via FT citing sources who said the idea is well established, the discussion is on the implementation; would reportedly raise several billion pounds. (FT)
• EU is devising plans to expand supervision of key financial markets infrastructure, including stock exchanges, crypto exchanges and clearing houses, as it seeks to eliminate fragmentation in the single market, according to FT.
• German VDMA says German engineering order fell 19% Y/Y in September; domestic orders -5%, Foreign Orders -24%; July-Sept -6% Y/Y.
• ECB’s Kazimir says there’s no time or need to fine-tune or overengineer monetary policy. Would not read too much into small deviations from a desired inflation path. There’s a risk as broadly balanced for both the economy and inflation. The next move could be in either direction depending on the signals the ECB receives.

FX

• USD has kicked the week off on the front foot in a slight extension of last week’s upside which was triggered primarily by the combination of a more hawkish-than-expected Fed announcement and a thawing in trade relations between China and the US. Whilst official data releases are still lacking, this week will present a slew of private surveys, kicking off today with the ISM manufacturing print, which is expected to remain in contractionary territory vs. expectations of an expansionary print in the services metric on Wednesday. Today’s speaker docket includes Fed’s Daly and Cook. DXY has risen as high as 99.92 with focus on a potential test of 100; not breached since August 1st (100.25 was the high that day).
• EUR is softer vs. the broadly firmer USD with incremental macro drivers for the Eurozone on the light side in the wake of last week’s uneventful ECB policy announcement. Messaging since has reaffirmed the tone struck by ECB Lagarde with Nagel of Germany the latest to make the case that there is no need to adjust policy in the near-term based on the current outlook for the ECB. Note, Chief Economist Lane is due to speak @ 12:00GMT. Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unrevised at 50, as expected with the accompanying report noting that “demand across the eurozone economy remained subdued”. On a more encouraging footing, China’s MOFCOM said China and the EU held in-depth and constructive talks on mutual export control concerns with both sides agreeing to maintain dialogue to support stable and smooth supply chains between the economies. EUR/USD has slipped to its lowest level since 1st August with a session trough at 1.1511.
• JPY is a touch lower vs. the USD with USD/JPY holding above the 154 mark. Japan was away from market overnight with newsflow surrounding Japan subsequently on the light side. The Japanese calendar is a light one this week aside from Cash Earnings data on Thursday. As it stands, markets price just a circa 28% chance of a BoJ rate hike in December. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 154.28 but is yet to test Friday’s best at 154.41.
• GBP is soft vs. the USD but flat vs. the EUR. Newsflow continues to centre on the November 26th budget with the latest reporting suggesting that UK Chancellor Reeves will target pensions of high earners and expensive homes. The potential outcomes for the budget are vast at this stage. However, consensus is gradually coalescing around the view that Reeves will attempt to establish a greater financial buffer via a range of tax increases (e.g. freezing income thresholds, expanding NIC coverage, etc) that are expected to be non-inflationary and growth restrictive. Elsewhere, UK manufacturing PMI has been revised a touch higher but ultimately still remains below the 50 mark. Cable has slipped to a low of 1.3118 but is holding above Friday’s 1.3097 base.
• Antipodeans are both are slightly more resilient than most peers vs. the USD with AUD managing to overlook a disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI print overnight, which was hampered by a sharp decline in export orders. Instead, attention is on tomorrow’s RBA policy announcement, with markets assigning a circa 94% chance of an unchanged rate in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected Q3 inflation report.
• CHF is one of the laggards across the majors in the wake of softer-than-expected Swiss inflation data for October. Y/Y CPI unexpectedly slowed to 0.1% from 0.2% vs. consensus of a pick-up to 0.3%, whilst the M/M rate printed at just -0.3% (expected -0.1%, previous -0.2%); both prints were below the bottom-end of analyst forecasts.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks. Price action this morning was limited for USTs at first owing to the Japanese closure for Culture Day. USTs picked up a bit more into the European day alongside benchmarks generally and despite an uptick in equity performance. Action that took USTs to a 112-27 peak, nearly matching Friday’s 112-27+ high, last week’s 112-29+ best just above. Markets will get Cook (voter) and Daly (2027) later today, in addition to the refinancing estimates ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Before that, ISM Manufacturing hits and given the lack of NFP on Friday owing to the shutdown the employment component may draw even-greater attention than usual. This week, we will get ADP and Challenger but no JOLTs, weekly claims or as mentioned, NFP.
• OATs are modestly firmer. Friday’s Zucman tax measures failed to garner support in the National Assembly on Friday, though a slight adjustment was made to a real estate tax to target “unproductive wealth”. Supported by the Socialist Party, but markedly shy of the measures they seek. Amidst this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed a touch to just above the 78bps mark, potentially trading off the c. 10 day reprieve Lecornu may very well have.
• Bunds drifted lower overnight and then came under pressure this morning on the announcement of six-part EUR denominated Alphabet issuance, an update that sent Bunds to a 129.24 trough with downside of 15 ticks at most. However, the move proved somewhat short-lived with Bunds bouncing thereafter to 129.41, but still shy of the overnight early doors 129.46 peak. Upside that started around the European cash equity open and despite the equity tone picking up at the time amid the MOFCOM announcing in-depth China-EU talks. While firmer the action, as is the case with USTs, leaves Bunds just shy of Friday’s 129.49 best and last week’s peak at 129.73. No substantial move to the Final Manufacturing PMIs this morning, neatly surmised by HCOB as “fragile in Germany, in recession in France, persistently weak in Italy, and showing only subdued growth in Spain.“
• Gilts opened with upside of a handful of ticks at 93.65 before extending to a 93.74 peak in tandem with peers as outlined above, a high that just about eclipses Friday’s 93.71 best but stopped shy of 93.89 and 93.96 from earlier that week. No move to a slight upward revision to the Final Manufacturing PMI, but one that left it in contractionary territory. The release highlighted that manufacturing is in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity on the domestic fiscal and geopolitical backdrop. Weekend press reports focussed on the fiscal situation, as Reeves is said to be preparing a pension tax raid of as much as GBP 4bln, according to The Telegraph. Additionally, the FT reports that the Treasury is looking into higher council tax bands, a tweak that could raise several billion pounds.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) mandates EUR-denominated 3yr, 6yr, 9yr, 13yr, 19yr & 39yr bonds; proceeds for general corporate purposes, incl. the repayment of outstanding debt,

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks initially gapped higher following the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday but have failed to hold onto gains, reversing back to the closing price of Friday’s session. WTI and Brent gapped and extended to a peak of USD 61.50/bbl and USD 65.32/bbl respectively before falling c. USD 0.80/bbl to a trough of USD 60.70/bbl and USD 63.98/bbl. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to an oil production hike of 137k BPD for December but then to hold on oil hikes for the following three months. The three-month hold has been described by analysts as an acknowledgement by the group that the oil market is facing a sizable surplus.
• Spot XAU fell straight on the open of the APAC session to a trough of USD 3962/oz before gradually reversing to a peak of USD 4028/oz just as the European session got underway. Currently, XAU is trading shy of best levels at USD 4006/oz as the global equity bid weighs on the yellow metal.
• Base metals initially dropped as the APAC session got underway but reversed higher, with 3M LME Aluminium reaching near its highest prices since May 2022, as the market follows the wider positive sentiment in global equities. 3M LME Copper dipped to a trough of USD 10.84k/t early in the trading day before reversing to a peak of USD 10.93k/t and currently oscillating within this tight c. USD 100/t band. Overnight the red-metal lacked direction after disappointing Chinese PMI data.
• Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise oil output in December by 137k bpd and then pause for Q1.
• Turkish oil refiners are to cut Russian crude imports for December arrival with Azeri Socar buying four non-Russian cargoes, while Turkish state refiner Tupras increases purchases of non-Russian crude, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Morgan Stanley raises H1’26 Brent estimate to USD 60/bbl (prev. saw USD 57.50/bbl)
• BP (BP /LN) CEO says oil demand remains robust, adds that 1% oil demand growth was helped by aviation and petchems.
• UBS sees upside risks for gold towards USD 4,700/oz if political or financial market volatility increases again.
• OPEC Secretary-General says the group has been consistently and regularly returning barrels to the market, have the flexibility to alter, pause and reverse past decisions. Making sure to maintain supply-demand balance. Group sees oil demand growth at 1.3mln BPD this year. Still sees good signs for demand. Not expecting any surprises in the market.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu warned that Israel was prepared to take further action against Iran-allied groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen, according to FT.
• Israel’s Defence Minister said the Lebanese government must fulfil its commitment to disarm Hezbollah and remove it from south Lebanon, while Israel vowed maximum enforcement will continue and intensify to protect northern residents.
• Israel reportedly conducted artillery strikes and destroyed residential blocks in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip.
• Israel announced on Sunday that it received the bodies of three hostages from the Red Cross in Gaza.
• Iran’s President said Tehran will rebuild its nuclear facilities with greater power, according to state media.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reiterates Iran is not interested in direct negotiations with the US, via Iran International.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei says Tehran remains committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its safeguards agreement, via Iran International.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US Pentagon was reported on Friday to have approved the White House to transfer US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, although left the final decision to the US President Trump, according to CNN, while the Russian Foreign Ministry said regarding reports about the US approval of Tomahawk supplies to Ukraine, that sending weapons to Kyiv will not help any settlement, according to RIA. However, US President Trump commented on Sunday that he is not really considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles.
• Ukraine drone attack causes fire at Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse, while authorities announced that an oil tanker and two foreign civilian vessels were damaged as a result of the drone attack on Russia’s Tuapse.
• Ukraine’s military said it is raising the number of its assault groups to counteract Russian troops and that it has improved positions in several districts in Pokrovsk. However, it also stated that the situation in Pokrovsk remains complicated and dynamic, while Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukrainian soldiers surrounded in Pokrovsk began to surrender.
• Russia says it struck Ukrainian gas facilities, a military airfield, and a Ukrainian military equipment repair base in large overnight strikes.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump’s administration is reportedly planning a new mission in Mexico to target cartels, via NBC citing current & former officials; would include US troops on the ground, though deployment is not imminent.
• US President Trump threatened to cut off all US aid to Nigeria over the killing of Christians and said the US might go into Nigeria with “guns-a-blazing”, while he instructed the Department of War to prepare for possible action and separately commented that there could be US troops on the ground in Nigeria or airstrikes.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth posted “The killing of innocent Christians in Nigeria — and anywhere — must end immediately. The Department of War is preparing for action. Either the Nigerian Government protects Christians, or we will kill the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.”
• US and China agreed to set up direct communication between their militaries to help avoid conflict, according to US Secretary of War Hegseth, who also said the administration supports a strong and independent Vietnam, while the US wants a deeper military relationship with Vietnam and wants to expand the partnership with Vietnam and work to advance shared interests. Furthermore, Hegseth announced that the US military carried out another ‘lethal kinetic strike’ on a vessel in the Caribbean.
• South Korean President Lee said they will aid US President Trump to play a peacemaker role on North Korea.
• China criticised Japanese PM Takaichi for meeting with Taiwanese officials on the sidelines of APEC.
• Philippines signed a military pact with Canada as the former seeks to build a coalition of allies to deter China’s aggression in the South China Sea.

US Event Calendar

• Oct Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.5m, prior 16.39m
• 9:45 am: Oct F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.2, prior 52.2
• 10:00 am: Oct ISM Manufacturing, est. 49.45, prior 49.1
• 10:00 am: Oct ISM Prices Paid, est. 62.5, prior 61.9
• 10:00 am: Sep Construction Spending MoM

Central Bank Speakers:

• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Daly in Moderated Conversation
• 2:00 pm: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the first business day of November. As it’s the start of the month, Henry has just released our regular performance review of markets in October. It was an incredibly eventful month, and financial assets were supported by the US-China trade truce, strong data and decent earnings. So the S&P 500 posted a 6th monthly gain for the first time since 2021, and those factors outweighed concerns around private credit and fears of an AI bubble. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei had its best month in 35 years as the new government came to office. And despite the late pullback, precious metals continued their advance, with gold moving above $4,000/oz, whilst silver posted a 6th consecutive monthly gain for the first time in 45 years. See the full report here.

One of this week’s major landmarks is that, by midnight tomorrow, the current US government shutdown will officially become the longest in history—assuming there isn’t a highly unlikely near-term resolution. This will surpass the previous record of 35 days, which ended on 25 January 2019. There is growing speculation that we may be nearing the last stages of the shutdown, driven by increased cross-party dialogue, mounting public pressure, and economic and political considerations. One example is the US food aid programme, which supports around 42 million Americans and may not have sufficient funding to last through November.

Yet despite this, the Polymarket probabilities show little sign of shifting. For instance, the likelihood of the shutdown ending by 15 November stands at 51%, having edged lower in recent days, while the probability of it ending by 30 November remains consistently in the 80–90% range, currently at 86%. So, while markets expect a November, expectations haven’t accelerated.

If it weren’t for the shutdown, we’d be looking forward to the US jobs report for October on Friday. But given we aren’t getting the government data releases, there’s likely to be outsize attention on the ADP’s report of private payrolls on Wednesday, especially in light of Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference last week. He indicated that the Fed requires further evidence of labour market deterioration before considering additional easing, and his stance may have been influenced by recent weekly ADP data, which has pointed to a modest rebound in private sector job gains. For this month’s report, DB’s US economists expect a print of +50k, compared to -32k previously, with consensus at +30k. They think a rebound in the ADP survey would align with seasonal patterns observed over recent years during the summer and autumn. These seasonals may have artificially weakened the recent headline figures, although strict immigration curbs and subdued hiring and firing point to a fragile low level equilibrium in the labour market which wouldn’t take much to shift momentum either way.

Elsewhere in the US, the focus will be on other private sector releases. Today’s ISM manufacturing print is forecast by DB at 48.9, down from 49.1 previously (consensus at 49.5), while Wednesday’s ISM services print (DB at 51.1, consensus 50.8, vs. 50.0 last month) will also be closely watched, particularly its subcomponents such as employment and prices paid. The PMIs are also out this week, as well as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment on Friday, where the inflation expectations series will be key. Bear in mind that the October FOMC dissenter Schmid recently remarked, “I view inflation expectations not as an input into Fed’s decisions, but as the outcome of the policy decisions that the Fed makes.” There will also be extensive Fed commentary this week, which will be closely scrutinised following last week’s FOMC.

Aside from the data, one of the big events is that on Wednesday, the US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments regarding the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs, which account for roughly half of tariff revenue collections in 2025. Two lower courts have ruled these tariffs illegal, and the eventual outcome could significantly impact the fiscal outlook—even though Trump may pursue alternative measures if he loses. Bear in mind that Polymarket probabilities only point to a 36% chance of the Supreme Court ruling in favour of the Trump tariffs, so one to keep an eye on.

Globally, central bank meetings are scheduled with the RBA (Tuesday), Riksbank (Wednesday), Norges Bank and BoE (Thursday). No changes are expected, though the BoE holds the most uncertainty with markets pricing a 29% likelihood of a cut, compared to negligible probabilities for the others. See our economists’ preview of the BoE meeting here.
Outside the US, key data releases include October CPIs in Switzerland (today) and Sweden (Thursday), trade balances in Germany, France, and China (all Friday), and wage data in Japan (Wednesday). Germany will also publish factory orders (Wednesday) and industrial production figures (Thursday).

Earnings season will also continue apace this week, with several US tech firms in the spotlight, including Palantir, AMD, and Qualcomm. Other notable S&P 500 names reporting include McDonald’s, Uber, and Pfizer. Energy firms Saudi Aramco, ConocoPhillips, and BP are also set to report. Meanwhile in Europe, highlights include AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, Ferrari, and defence firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo. See our day-by-day calendar of events at the end as usual.

Overnight in Asia, equities have generally got November off to a strong start. For instance in South Korea, the KOSPI (+2.48%) has surged to another record high, and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is also up +0.89%. The performance has been a bit softer in mainland China, with the Shanghai Comp (+0.26%) posting a more modest increase alongside a decline for the CSI 300 (-0.12%). But looking forward, US and European equity futures are also positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.17%) and the DAX (+0.26%) both pointing higher. Otherwise, WTI oil prices (+0.46%) have risen for a 4th consecutive session after the OPEC+ group said they would be pausing output hikes in Q1, moving up to $61.26/bbl.

Recapping a hectic week now, markets were buoyed by strong tech earnings, a positive Trump–Xi meeting, and new AI-related deals. Tech outperformed, with the NASDAQ up +2.24% (+0.61% Friday) and the Mag-7 rising +3.30% (+1.22% Friday). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained +3.61% (+0.18% Friday), driven by Qualcomm’s +7.08% chip announcement and Nvidia’s +8.71% surge following new partnerships, pushing its market cap past $5 trillion at one point. AI and cloud revenue stories dominated earnings from five Mag-7 firms. Alphabet rose +8.18% and Amazon +8.92% on strong cloud growth, while Apple gained +2.87% on improved iPhone sales projections. Microsoft fell -1.11% despite early-week gains after revealing a 27% stake in OpenAI. Meta was the laggard, down -12.19% (-2.72% Friday), as markets questioned its high capex plans and rationale for last week’s $30bn bond issuance.
Outside tech, equities were more subdued. The S&P 500 rose +0.71% (+0.26% Friday), but the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell -1.75% and the Russell 2000 declined -1.36%. US IG credit spreads widened +3bps to 78bps, impacted by Meta’s mega deal. European credit outperformed, with IG and HY spreads tightening -1bps and -9bps respectively, even as equities declined — the STOXX 600 fell -0.67% (-0.51% Friday).

A key geopolitical event was the Trump–Xi meeting during Trump’s Asia visit. The US agreed to reduce its fentanyl-related tariff from 20% to 10%, while China removed its 10–15% retaliatory tariffs on various US agricultural products and delayed rare earth export controls. The Nikkei (+6.31%) and KOSPI (+4.21%) hit new records, but Chinese equities underperformed (CSI 300 -0.43%) amid lingering US–China tensions and a weak China manufacturing PMI on Friday.
Turning to rates, the Fed cut the fed funds rate by 25bps to 3.75–4.00%, but internal divisions remain. Two Governors dissented in opposite directions, and Powell noted “strongly differing views” within the FOMC, stating that a December rate cut is “far from…a foregone conclusion”. So by the end of the week, futures were pricing a 68% probability of a December cut, down from over 90% before the FOMC. Consequently, 10yr Treasury yields rose +7.5bps (-2.1bps Friday), and 2yr yields increased +9.2bps (-3.5bps Friday). Higher US rates supported the dollar, with the dollar index up +0.86%, marking its highest weekly close since May. In contrast, gold fell -2.68% to $4,003/oz.

Finally in Europe, the ECB held rates steady at 2% for the third consecutive meeting. President Lagarde stated that policy is in a “good place”, though not a “fixed place”. European bonds saw mixed movements against that backdrop: 10yr bund yields rose +0.7bps, while OATs and BTPs declined -1.1bps and -3.2bps respectively. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, and the Bank of Japan maintained its rate at 0.5%.