Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt issued a stark warning about the intensifying global race in artificial intelligence, and says that the U.S. is rapidly losing ground to China due to divergent strategies in developing advanced AI systems and integrating them into critical technologies.

In a fireside chat during the All-In Summit, Schmidt talked at length about the contrasting approaches, arguing that U.S. restrictions on chip exports have constrained China’s pursuit of artificial general intelligence (AGI) but have not halted its progress in practical applications.

“I had thought that China and the United States were competing at the peer level in AI and that the good work that you have done and your predecessors did to restrict chips were slowing them down,” Schmidt said. “They’re really doing something more different than I thought. They’re not pursuing crazy AGI strategies partly because of the hardware limitations that you’ve put in place, but partly because the depth of their capital markets don’t exist. They can’t raise based on a wing and a prayer $100 million or maybe an equivalent to build the data centers. They just can’t do it.”

why is no one talking about this? schmidt: china’s AI strategy is not pursuing “crazy” AGI strategies like america, but applying AI to everyday things. this is because their capital markets lack depth, and compute is blocked. he warns this plus lack of open source are major… pic.twitter.com/W7RnEDtoG5

— Aaron Slodov (@aphysicist) September 26, 2025

Instead, Schmidt explained that China is focusing on embedding AI into practical applications, from consumer apps to robotics.

“The result is they’re very focused on taking AI and applying it to everything,” the former Google CEO said. “And so the concern I have is that while we’re pursuing AGI, which is incredibly interesting and we should talk about and all of us will be affected by this, we better also be competing with the Chinese in day-to-day stuff. Consumer apps.”

Schmidt then highlighted China’s robotics sector as a case study, drawing parallels to its success in electric vehicles.

“I saw all the Shanghai robotics companies and these guys are attempting to do in robots what they’ve successfully done with electric vehicles, right? And their work ethic is incredible,” Schmidt said. “They’re well-funded. It’s not the crazy valuations that we have in America. They can’t raise the capital, but they can win across that.”

Schmidt also raised concerns about China’s open-source strategy, which he sees as a geopolitical challenge.

“The other thing the Chinese are doing, and I want to emphasize this is a major geopolitical issue, is that my own background is open source,” Schmidt said.

“Open weights means open training data. China is competing with open weights and open training data. And the US is largely and majority focused on closed weights, closed data,” he added. “That means that the majority of the world, think of it as the Belt and Road Initiative, are going to use Chinese models and not American models.”

As artificial intelligence reshapes the global economy, a cascade of eye-popping deals is pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into sprawling data-center empires, with OpenAI at the epicenter. The latest salvo came this week, as Nvidia committed up to $100 billion to the ChatGPT maker, a pact that underscores the sector’s breakneck pace—and its mounting risks. Coupled with OpenAI and Softbank’s $500 billion Stargate infrastructure push, these colossal investments are propelling U.S. tech giants into an unprecedented spending spree, even as skeptics warn of a frothy market driven more by hype than hard returns.

Ever since the Stargate project was announced, questions have swirled around whether Softbank has the funds to make it a reality. Others have pointed to the Nvidia-OpenAI deal as a negative signal for the latter.

“While the announcement is positive for OpenAI’s ability to ramp, we are concerned NVDA has become the ‘investor of last resort’, bailing out OpenAI’s overextended commitments,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria wrote in a recent research note.

Watch the entire interview below:

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Despite a slight 0.2 percent dip in national home sales in August, real estate professionals nationwide remain cautiously optimistic about the fall market, which officially began on Sept. 22.

In its September existing home sales report, published Sept. 25, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) described the August slip as a seasonally adjusted rate and noted that year over year, the U.S. housing market has experienced a 1.8 percent increase in sales.

The inventory remained basically unchanged from July, with a decline of just 1.3 percent. However, compared with August 2024, inventory rose by 11.7 percent.

Home prices continued to climb for the twenty-sixth consecutive month year over year, with the median reaching $422,600.

“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in the report.

“However, mortgage rates are declining, and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.”

As of Sept. 25, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.3 percent, according to Freddie Mac.

Jim Nabors, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB), told The Epoch Times that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious, even in light of its recent interest rate cut announcement.

“Chairman Powell has emphasized that decisions will continue to be made ‘meeting by meeting’ based on incoming data,” Nabors said.

However, he is hopeful about the fall market as well as the fourth quarter, as NAMB has witnessed an increase in mortgage applications, particularly for refinancing.

“Lower rates will drive the nation to a more balanced market position, and the industry is beginning to transition from a seller’s market,” he said.

Nabors believes inventory growth will also create more options for buyers.

“Those borrowers who previously may have felt priced out of the market may come back around,” he noted.

“The market is already showing signs of better balance, which can benefit both buyers and existing homeowners looking to refinance.”

NAR senior economist Nadia Evangelou said that the group predicts mortgage rates will continue to decrease slightly by the end of the year, which should trigger more households to buy homes.

“We definitely expect to see more activity in the coming months,” she told The Epoch Times.

Midwestern States

Regionally, the NAR said the Midwest was the best-performing area in August, with a 2.1 percent hike in month-over month sales. Median home prices stood at  $330,500—up by 4.5 percent from August 2024.

Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, forecasts a more robust fall and fourth quarter.

“If interest rates continue to stabilize, I think we’ll start to see more movement in the market,” she told The Epoch Times.

With an overall median sales prices of $360,000 for both single-family homes and condos in the city, condominium sales are up in September and are selling faster than single-family residences, noted Villegas.

“Condos are a very real possibility not only for younger first-time buyers but for those who are looking to downsize,” she said.

However, single-family home inventory in Chicago is still a big challenge.

“We just don’t have the inventory that we need to fill the needs of the market—especially for first-time homebuyers,” she said.

Villegas noted that bidding wars are still a reality both in the city and suburban areas.

“We recently had a deal with 11 offers on a property,” she said. “Depending on the house and the location, we’re still seeing over-asking offers of anywhere between $5,000 and $30,000.”

While there is some new construction, Chicago and its suburbs have limited land available.

“We desperately need new construction, and the City Council will be voting on laws about accessory dwelling units this month,” Villegas said.

According to the Chicago Association of Realtors, accessory dwelling units will help increase the housing supply for first-time buyers as well as the city’s workforce and senior citizens. The pilot program debuted in 2021, and new laws would extend the accessory dwelling units program to all 77 Chicago neighborhoods.

Western States

The West also experienced month-over-month growth in sales at 1.4 percent in August, with the median price reaching $624,300—an increase of 0.6 percent from August 2024.

Christy Walker, president of the Phoenix Association of Realtors, told The Epoch Times she’s also optimistic about the remainder of the year.

“Our pending sales are up, and our local lenders tell us that mortgage applications are also increasing,” she said.

As of September, Phoenix commanded a median price of $471,000, and in other suburban areas of Arizona, such as Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler, the median price was at $510,000, according to Walker.

Local residents who are first-time buyers or even move-up buyers often find themselves competing with Californians and Midwesterners who are looking to move to a warmer climate. Canadians, as well, continue to purchase vacation properties in the area.

The biggest challenge facing Phoenix area real estate professionals is the continual construction of build-to-rent communities.

“Arizona is number one in the country for this type of model, and a lot of people may be getting stuck in these communities,” Walker said.

“Initially, they may choose to move in if they can’t afford to buy, but if they don’t start to save, they could end up as a perpetual renter.”

Walker believes seller concessions will continue throughout the fall and fourth quarter .

Southern States

The NAR reported a 1.1 percent decrease in month-over-month sales for America’s southern region, where the median price in August was up by 0.4 percent from July, to $364,100.

Johnny Mowad, president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors in greater Dallas-Fort Worth, is convinced that the fall market and the fourth quarter will remain strong.

“Dallas is already booming, and this is the first time in decades that inventory has surged, especially in the suburbs,” he told The Epoch Times.

“The days of bidding wars on every home are fading and we’re seeing a market that looks more balanced.”

New construction in the region is also contributing to the inventory burst, Mowad noted, and buyers are beginning to have the upper hand. In Dallas County, inventory is up by 24 percent since last month, and in nearby Collin County, by 40 percent.

While Dallas sellers are now more willing to negotiate on prices, the market has not yet seen any significant price drops. As of September, the median price for a single-family home in Dallas County is $365,000—a 2 percent increase over August.

Mowad, a broker with Ebby Halliday Realtors in Dallas, expects the current momentum to continue into the fall and the fourth quarter.

“Even with negotiations, sellers are still getting great prices on their homes and they’re definitely going to see a positive return on their investments,” he said.

Jonathan Lickstein, president of the Broward, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Realtors, in Florida, told The Epoch Times that loan applications have risen about 18 percent, and with interest rates beginning to stabilize, he believes the area will continue to see in influx of local buyers and those from out of state in the coming months.

“Single-family homes in our region have experienced longer days on the market, but homes are continuing to maintain their value,” he said. “Sellers are negotiating, but most are still closing at 97 percent of the list price.”

Currently, Miami Dade County commands the highest median price at $660,000 for single-family homes, followed by Broward County at $625,000, Palm Beach County at $613,000, and St. Lucie County at $385,000, according to Lickstein.

The biggest challenge for the rest of the year, he noted, is the condo market, which continues to suffer from the fallout of the 2021 Champlain Tower condo collapse in Surfside. Billed as one of the worst disasters in the United States, the building collapse claimed the lives of almost 100 people.

As a result, explained Lickstein, condos built before 2005 are now subject to recurring inspections and repairs, which in many cases are forcing owners to incur huge payments for assessments.

“The newer buildings are not as impacted with this, but overall, the new regulations have seriously hurt the condo market,” he said.

Lickstein, chief operating officer of LoKation Real Estate in Pompano Beach, expects little change in the condo market through the end of the year. Condo prices are down all over, with Miami Dade’s median at $406,000, followed by Palm Beach at $300,000, St. Lucie at $282, and Broward at $265,000, he said.

Evangelou noted that both Texas and Florida lead the nation in single-family home inventory.

“Nationally, inventory is up, but we still need at least 300,000 more homes to balance out the market,” she said.

Northeastern States

The Northeast experienced the biggest decline at 4 percent for month-over-month sales in August, but the median price grew 6.2 percent from August 2024, to $534,200.

Bianca D’Alessio, a broker with Nest Seekers International in Manhattan, told The Epoch Times that the New York City market remains very active.

“There’s been a huge uptick and increased buyer confidence,” she said. “There’s an anticipation about the interest rates coming down further and buyers who have been looking for a long time are feeling that now is the time to get in.”

A new residential building in midtown Manhattan that D’Alessio is representing has already brought in hundreds of showings. Considered “affordable” by Manhattan standards, studio apartments are listed at $400,000, and one-bedrooms at $650,000, according to D’Alessio.

“The first open house had 90 people lined up to see the units in this walk-up building with no amenities,” she said.

Bidding wars are still common depending on the building and location, noted D’Alessio. New York City’s boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens are equally as active.

“It’s reflective of what’s going on in the market, and I think we’ll be in for a successful remainder for 2025,” she said.

NAR Buyer Profiles

The NAR’s report indicates that first-time homebuyers comprised 28 percent of August sales—a jump from 26 percent in August 2024. Of all buyer transactions, 28 percent were in cash, and 21 percent were individual investors or second-home buyers. Only 2 percent were distressed sales from foreclosures or short sales.

While Evangelou believes that the next few months will be more prosperous for potential homebuyers, realtors, and mortgage professionals, she said affordability is still in issue that needs to be solved before creating a truly balanced market.

“Nationally, middle-income buyers with a household income of $75,000 can afford only 21 percent of existing homes,” she said.

“There have been some gains in affordable housing, but we need that number to be closer to 50 percent.”

The Wall Street Journal’s late Friday afternoon report, detailing the largest leveraged buyout (LBO) ever, which would take Electronic Arts (EA) private by private-equity giants, was confirmed by the video game company on Monday morning.

Here is the deal overview for the gaming company that owns EA Sports FC, Madden, and The Sims: 

• Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: EA) entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by a consortium of Saudi Arabia’s PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners. 

• The transaction values EA at $55 billion enterprise value, the largest all-cash sponsor take-private in history.

• Shareholders will receive $210 per share in cash, a 25% premium to EA’s last unaffected price ($168.32) and above its all-time high ($179.01).

• PIF will roll over its existing 9.9% stake into the deal.

Financing & Structure Equity:

• $36 billion from PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners (capital from their own control).

• Debt: $20B fully committed by JPMorgan, with $18B expected to be drawn at close.

• Advisors: EA: Goldman Sachs (financial), Wachtell (legal) Consortium: J.P. Morgan (financial), Kirkland & Ellis (lead legal), with additional firms advising each partner.

Timeline and Approvals Expected close:

• Q1 FY27 (pending regulatory and shareholder approval).

• EA stock will be delisted after closing.

• For Q2 FY26 earnings (Oct. 28, 2025)

Notable quotes from EA leadership and PE firms:

• Andrew Wilson (EA CEO): Deal recognizes EA’s creative teams and “will create transformative experiences to inspire generations to come. I am more energized than ever about the future we are building.” 

• PIF: Partnership will “fuel innovation within the industry on a global scale.” 

• Silver Lake: “This investment embodies Silver Lake’s mission to partner with exceptional management teams at the highest quality companies. EA is a special company: a global leader in interactive entertainment, anchored by its premier sports franchise, with accelerating revenue growth and strong and scaling free cash flow.” 

• Jared Kushner (Affinity Partners): “Electronic Arts ​is ​an ​extraordinary ​company with a ​world-class ​management ​team and a bold vision ​for ​the ​future. ​I’ve admired their ​ability to create iconic, lasting experiences, ​and ​as ​someone ​who ​grew up playing their ​games ​- and now enjoys them with his ​kids – I couldn’t be ​more ​excited about ​what’s ​ahead.” 

Here’s what some of Wall Street’s top desks are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence

• Electronic Arts’ potential take-private deal “is priced at an 80% or more premium vs. multiples of global game makers,” though it “looks fair compared with Take-Two, especially given EA’s potential profit beats in 2026-27 and IP treasure trove”

Citi (neutral)

• “We believe this offer likely puts a floor underneath EA but not a ceiling,” although a competing bid is unlikely

• “If Battlefield 6 does particularly well, investors may seek a higher offer price”

Benchmark Co. (buy, PT to $250 from $200)

• “While the bid highlights the strategic value of EA’s portfolio, we view the timing as premature, effectively crystallizing value before the market can assess the potential of Battlefield 6 and the broader Battlefield cycle”

Baird (outperform, PT $170)

• “A deal could make sense given the company’s attractive FCF profile, and with likely opportunities to bring more efficiency to the organization and optimize the title slate”

• Baird suspects the board “would be open to a deal, and recognize other suitors could emerge (financial or strategic buyers), given the robust video game M&A environment, and with key EA titles FC and Battlefield now hitting the market”

Jefferies (buy, PT $200)

• “We view PIF and Silver Lake as sensible buyers for an LBO of EA, but the ~20% takeout premium implied in the $50B deal is smaller than would be expected,” although “we don’t see any obvious alternative buyers given big tech companies will likely remain more focused on AI capex investments”

In New York, shares extended gains from Friday, up another 5.5%, nearing the $210 level. 

. . . 

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

The swamp never wastes time protecting its own, and James Comey is no exception. The disgraced former FBI director, who has finally been indicted for lying to Congress and obstructing a congressional proceeding, is already benefiting from the familiar playbook: put the right judge in place, create an appearance of fairness, and then quietly shield him from any real accountability.

On Thursday, following the grand jury indictment, Comey’s case was “randomly” assigned to U.S. District Judge Michael Nachmanoff. In 2021, Joe Biden nominated Nachmanoff, and the Senate confirmed him to the federal bench with a razor-thin 52-46 vote, as three Senate Republicans — Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski — crossed over to support his confirmation.

If you believe that selecting Nachmanoff to preside over this case was truly random, then you haven’t been paying attention. Washington’s so-called “random assignments” seem to have a funny way of putting the most Trump-hostile judges on politically charged cases. Take Judge James Boasberg, a Barack Obama appointee, who just happened to land multiple Trump-related cases. Every single time, Boasberg ruled in ways that stretched or outright ignored constitutional boundaries to work against Trump. Yet, somehow, we’re supposed to believe these assignments are pure chance. Sure.

Judge Nachmanoff’s résumé doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either. Before becoming a magistrate judge for six years, he spent over a decade working as a federal public defender. That’s a career steeped in finding loopholes, bending rules, and negotiating ways to avoid accountability for defendants. He also defended al Qaeda member Zacarias Moussaoui.

And now he’s tasked with presiding over perhaps the most politically sensitive case since the Trump-Russia debacle that Comey himself helped orchestrate. It has all the makings of yet another judicial performance meant not to obtain justice, but to wash Comey clean.

Comey himself is projecting confidence, even smugness. After his indictment, he declared, “I’m not afraid,” clearly confident of his inevitable vindication. Of course he’s not afraid—why would he be? He knows exactly how the swamp game works: the very corrupt institutions that targeted Trump are now circling the wagons to protect him. Washington knows that convicting Comey would mean vindicating Trump’s long-standing claims of a deep-state sabotage. They’ll never allow that because it would expose years of abuse and corruption.

Let’s not forget how deep the animosity runs. Comey’s feud with Trump dates back to 2017 when Trump fired him for insubordination and dishonesty. From there, Comey reinvented himself as the loudest of Trump’s critics, playing the role of “principled public servant” while running cover for the FBI’s disastrous handling of the 2016 campaign and the Russia hoax.

I guess we should have seen this coming. The Washington swamp protects its own. James Comey presided over one of the darkest abuses of power in modern American politics, weaponizing the FBI against a duly elected president. Now, as he faces the charges he should have faced years ago, the establishment is already stacking the deck in his favor. The deep state isn’t afraid of justice—they’re afraid of accountability. And once again, it looks like the fix is in.

The deep state’s tactics to save James Comey show the swamp never quits. 

The largest marijuana ETF by market capitalization jumped in premarket trading after President Trump’s Truth Social account published an overnight informational video highlighting the health benefits of cannabidiol (CBD), an active ingredient in cannabis derived from the hemp plant, for seniors. 

On Sunday evening, Trump’s social media team published a video that began with bold text reading, “You can revolutionize senior healthcare.” 

The video highlights that CBD can “restore” the endocannabinoid system, touting benefits such as reduced pain, better sleep, and lower stress. 

“When the system is restored, disease progression can slow down and years are added to your life, as well as years spent in good health,” the narrator claims, adding, “Doctors often prescribe dangerous and addictive pharmaceuticals.” 

“The system can be restored using hemp-derived CBD. When restored, pain subsides, sleep improves, and stress is reduced. Restoring the system may also slow disease progression – potentially adding years to your life,” the narrator continued. 

The video was first posted on Trump’s Truth Social account. 

New media post from Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/B2g3Uc4xfT

— Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) September 28, 2025

Earlier this month, the president confirmed his administration was considering reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug. 

“We’re looking at reclassification and we’ll make a determination over the next — I would say over the next few weeks, and that determination hopefully will be the right one. It’s very complicated subject,” Trump told reporters at the time at a news conference in the White House briefing room. 

The Wall Street Journal was the first to report that Trump was weighing rescheduling marijuana from a Schedule 1 drug to a Schedule 3 drug on Aug. 8. 

News of the overnight video sent AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) soaring in premarket trading, up 21% on 1.5 million shares traded by 0745 ET. 

. . . 

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The world is not going to see another crisis like the ones experienced in 2008 or 2011. No central bank or government is going to accept it.

You may think the prospect is good news.

However, the flip side is that this means secular stagnation and perennial crisis for wage earners and the middle class. There is a slow-motion eternal crisis that leaves the average citizen wondering why they cannot make ends meet, while governments boast about their economic stability.

A crisis is only the manifestation of a previous excess. When governments prioritise prudent investments, healthy public accounts, and attractive taxes, crises end quickly, and the recovery is stronger. However, when governments claim to be the solution and mask economic imbalances with increased spending, debt, and taxes, they merely create a significant transfer of wealth from the private sector to themselves, resulting in persistent inflation, higher taxes, weaker productive growth, and lower real wages that burden taxpayers.

Many commentators warn of an imminent 2008-style collapse or a debt crisis driven by the unsustainable fiscal situation of developed nations. It will not be like that.

A sovereign debt bubble does not burst like a real estate one. It implodes via a vicious cycle of persistent inflation, stagnation and confiscatory taxes. A sovereign debt bubble explodes in your face and in your pocket, slowly but surely.

The world has entered an era characterised by ever-rising public debt, aggressive fiscal interventions, and the permanent financial repression of savers and the middle class.

This perennial crisis is very different from an abrupt crash. It is driven by the constant erosion of the purchasing power of fiat money, productivity, and living standards, fuelled by constant public debt expansion and policy responses that ignore any deleverage or structural reform to focus on more taxes on the productive sectors.

Developed nations have exceeded all limits of indebtedness, and global central banks are avoiding sovereign debt while increasing their gold reserves.

The economic limit: More government spending and public debt lead to lower growth and the impoverishment of citizens in net real terms.

The fiscal limit: low interest rates combined with higher taxes lead to large deficits and increased interest expenses.

The inflationary limit: More government spending means more units of currency in the system and persistent inflation.

The French, British, Japanese, and US debt crises may be inevitable without serious spending cuts. As these debt crises unfold, the process of impoverishment becomes slow and painful, accompanied by a decline in the value of fiat money.

In 2025, global debt has soared to a record $337.7 trillion, an all-time high of 324% of global GDP. The public sector is overwhelmingly leading this increase. France, the UK, and Japan, through years of ultra-low rates and misguided public stimulus, have disregarded the warning signs and dangers of uncontrolled spending and public debt, resulting in massive budget deficits and debt burdens approaching or surpassing 100% of GDP.

France is the prime example of the dangers of letting governments take control of the economy. France has never implemented austerity measures; instead, government spending is excessive, and the tax wedge is harmful. Government debt surpasses 116% of GDP, with interest payments tripling from €26 billion in 2020 to €66 billion today.

If high government spending and taxes were the tools to deliver growth and sustainable accounts, France would be leading the world’s economic growth. Instead, it is in secular stagnation.

High taxes are not a tool to reduce debt but to justify it.

In Britain, long-term borrowing costs have surged to levels not seen since 1998 due to the country’s poor growth, uncontrolled spending, and rising inflation that has been exacerbated by higher taxes.

Japan, seen by some as the perfect Keynesian example of ever-rising debt with no risk, is no longer immune. With debt nearing 260% of GDP, yields on Japanese government bonds have risen to record highs and the prime minister announced that Japan’s situation was “worse than Greece”.

Yields on developed nations’ 10-year notes have reached new highs. Credit markets no longer assign “convenience yields” to government debt as they once did; instead, borrowing costs are rising fast despite interest rate cuts, showing the risk of a solvency crisis despite easy money policies.

The first ones to run away are central banks themselves. Global central banks, once the guaranteed buyers of sovereign bonds, are abandoning developed nations’ debt as a reserve asset, increasing gold purchases at a record pace. In 2025, central banks collectively bought more than 1000 metric tonnes of gold for a third consecutive year, bringing official reserves to over 36,000 tonnes globally. 95% of central banks expect to further increase gold reserves in the next 12 months, and for the first time in recent decades, their gold holdings surpass US Treasuries and euro area bonds as main reserve assets.

The sovereign debt bubble is imploding, and it will be paid with a painful and slow process of years of financial repression and destruction of the middle class. Policymakers prefer chronic crisis management instead of risking a dramatic 2008-style crisis caused by defaults and rapid deleveraging. Central banks have abandoned their inflation fight to ensure the sovereign debt bubble is “dissolved” through financial repression: cutting interest rates, flooding the markets with liquidity, and tolerating persistent inflation. However, disguising the true scale of fiscal imbalances and rewarding fiscal irresponsibility at the expense of currency stability makes governments ignore all the warning signs and soldier on with irresponsible spending.

The ongoing crisis will make wage earners poorer and create a dependent subclass incapable of saving or investing. Real interest rates will remain negative and money supply will rise faster than productive growth.

We may not see an abrupt headline crisis. It will be slow and painful, because it is already happening. Furthermore, monetary madness and government spending that destroy the value of the currency will continue to drive asset prices and gold to rise in nominal terms.

This is why market participants cheer the same policies that destroy the fabric of the economy: because they see asset prices soaring as the currency fades.

The world faces a slow-motion destruction of currency purchasing power. Inflation remains a persistent threat, eroding wages and deposit savings. Resources divert from innovation to debt service and government bureaucracy, stalling productivity growth. Thus, the middle class suffers higher taxes and persistent inflation, losing disposable incomes and social mobility.

This situation is not a result of government incompetence; rather, it is a deliberate strategy to create a dependent subclass that relies on government assistance due to the repression and elimination of financial freedom. The next time you request free services from the government, keep in mind that you will ultimately pay for them multiple times.

Just a couple days ahead of Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth’s planned major gather of hundreds of senior military officers near Washington on Tuesday, and President Trump has let it be known that he plans to be in attendance at the unusual confab.

He told NBC News Sunday, “It’s really just a very nice meeting talking about how well we’re doing militarily, talking about being in great shape, talking about a lot of good, positive things. It’s just a good message.”

“We have some great people coming in and it’s just an ‘esprit de corps.’ You know the expression ‘esprit de corps’? That’s all it’s about. We’re talking about what we’re doing, what they’re doing, and how we’re doing,” he continued.

While no official explanation has yet to be given for why some 800 top commanders are being gathered – some traveling from bases across the globe, major media outlets in the US have been reporting it will merely be a big talk by Hegseth in maintaining “warrior ethos” and things like professional standards. It’s also being reported as one big “rally the troops” meeting.

Speculation has abounded, but Trump’s fresh words on maintaining proper military ethos while confirming that he plans to be there suggests Washington Post’s initial reporting is indeed accurate.

However, there’s been a high degree of controversy, given also that senior generals and admirals were not informed beforehand as to the content of the meeting, and official militar-wide messages related to discipline and standards are typically communicated via electronic messaging or secure teleconference.

The surprise decision for Trump to be there also of course adds major security concerns, on top of an already unprecedented situation of hundreds of high-ranking officers are being flown in from around the world.

MCB Quantico is about 30 minutes south of Washington D.C. – off I-35, and has several entrances and exits, and is home to significant government facilities like the FBI academy, the FBI lab, and HMX-1 Airbase.

Washington Post earlier noted that key Trump policies may have met with some resistance among top military ranks, and that Hegseth may intend to read them the riot act:

“Critics have argued that his policies have often not seemed aligned with lethality — core initiatives have included removing transgender service members, ordering new shaving standards military-wide and rebranding the Defense Department as ‘the Department of War,’ complete with new seals and signage marking the entrance to his offices at the Pentagon,” WaPo said.

There have in the last months been some firings and reshufflings of top command posts by Hegseth, who dismissed Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, Navy Reserve Chief Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, and Naval Special Warfare Command head Rear Adm. Milton Sands.

Was Trump not initially aware when it was first unveiled? Vance tries to do some damage control in an awkward moment…

This is pretty damning and terrifying at the same time.. Trump had no clue Hegseth called for 800+ generals to meet in Quantico for undisclosed reasons; trump took a guess that it was a NATO meeting when it is just US top brass

JD gaslights in an attempt to stop the blunder pic.twitter.com/F9y0PHEML5

— Phil Heraz (@HerazPhil) September 27, 2025

The optics of the meeting will be interesting, and Hegseth plans to record and later make public his speech. There still remains the possibility that WaPo and CNN’s reporting on it being about “warrior ethos” is flat wrong. Could this be war preparations in action? But things will soon become clear on Tuesday.

August data for the US housing market has been ‘mixed’ to say the least with a surge in new home sales (thanks to a massive rise in incentives from homebuilders) and a small decline (near multi-year lows), leaving this morning’s pending home sales data as the tie-breaker (with expectations of an ‘unch’ shift MoM).

It appears the drop in mortgage rates is driving some purchase activity as pending home sales soared 4.0% MoM in August – the most since March – dragging sales up 0.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

The MoM surge exceeded all estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“Lower mortgage rates are enabling more homebuyers to go under contract,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

The big MoM jump lifted the overall pending home sales index off multi-year lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge was especially strong in the Midwest, where sales jumped nearly 9% in August, Yun said, which was the most since early 2023. Contract signings also rose in the South and West.

Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest in a year at 6.34%, encouraging many Americans to get off the sidelines and others to finally list their homes for sale.

While the drop in mortgage rates is welcome, millions of Americans still have rates well below current levels and aren’t inclined to move, which has suppressed inventory and kept prices elevated.

Source: Bloomberg

The supply of existing homes for sale remains near five-year highs, as more people list their homes for sale, but the extra inventory isn’t yet pushing prices down.

Source: Bloomberg

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

This week’s big event might not actually happen, as payrolls Friday could be the first high profile victim of a potential government shutdown if Congress is unable to reach an agreement on a short-term funding resolution by midnight tomorrow night (see our preview here “Here’s What Happens When The US Government Shuts Down On Oct 1 And How Markets Will React“). Indeed, as Deutsche Bank reminds us, back in October 2013, the shutdown meant we didn’t get the September jobs report until the 22nd of the month.

We’ll preview both below, but the other main highlights this week are:

• Waller, Bostic and Hammock speaking today;
• US consumer confidence, JOLTS, China PMIs, German, French and Italian CPI, the RBA meeting and the Fed Jefferson and Goolsbee speaking tomorrow;
• US manufacturing ISM, the ADP, Eurozone CPI, and the Fed’s Logan speaking on Wednesday;
• US jobless claims and the Fed’s Logan speaking again on Thursday;
• US services ISM and the Fed’s Williams and Jefferson speaking on Friday. 

The full day-by-day calendar of events is at the end as usual.

Turning to the week’s main event, fears of a shutdown rose significantly last week, particularly after Trump cancelled a meeting planned with the Democratic leaders in the House and the Senate. But yesterday we heard that Trump will be meeting Democrat and Republican leaders today to try to broker a deal. So that helped the probability of a shutdown this year on Polymarket to fall from 84% yesterday to 63% this morning.

Such an event could still be later in the year if a stop-gap is put in place this week but overall the probability of one occurring is deemed to be more likely than not before the end of the year. Remember that even though the Republicans have a majority in both chambers, they still need Democratic votes in the Senate, as there’s a 60-vote threshold to avoid the filibuster.

If there is a shutdown, all non-essential federal employees would be furloughed, which DB’s economists estimate would cost the economy 0.2% per week on an annualized GDP basis. The longest shutdown was the 35 days straddling the end of 2018 and start of 2019. In 1996, we had one for 21 days and in 2013 one lasting 16 days. Others have lasted a few days or even only hours and before federal workers’ alarm clocks went off.

If we don’t see the shutdown and payrolls then get released, it’s a very important number given the recent negative revisions and real-time downtrend in new hiring, not to mention the Fed and market reaction function. We could be set for some notable volatility around these prints going forward as the breakeven payroll rate now seems to be around or under 50k per month. Given the naturally wide distribution of payroll numbers, this brings the prospect, and perhaps even the likelihood, of negative prints. These prints may not reflect the underlying trend but could lead to big moves. Given the breakeven rate has always been higher in our careers, we are not really conditioned to negative prints being within the margin of error, so reactions to such prints may be not be rational if and when they happen.

Having said that, for this month DB’s economists expect a rebound on the headline to +75k (consensus +50k) against +22k last month. For private payrolls they also expect +75k (consensus +60k) against +38k last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. So, the point above is more of an ongoing one over the coming months and quarters.  

Tomorrow’s JOLTS report is also important but only refers to August. So it’s always behind but is perhaps the more reliable indicator of the labor market. So far it has been fairly stable and indicative of a low hiring and low firing labor market. So stable, but with low numbers on both sides, and therefore it wouldn’t take a big change in the direction either way to make a big difference. We also have ADP on Wednesday and then we think jobless claims on Thursday would likely be released in a shutdown as it’s compiled by states. This happened in the 2013 shutdown but we can’t be 100% sure. Elsewhere for employment trends, the jobs hard/plentiful measure in tomorrow’s consumer confidence, as well as the employment subcomponents in the two ISM readings this week will also be important for the current state of play in the US labor market.  

The one other thing to say is that the start of Q4 on Wednesday brings the start of the multi-year German stimulus package. Given most careers have been soundtracked by German fiscal discipline, then we will all have to get used to a changing narrative. It’s fair to say that investors have become more pessimistic over the summer as to the extent of the difference it will make (just check out the DAX swoon after the early 2025 blast off) . However, some of this is just impatience and the momentum could kick into gear again soon. There is some disappointment that more will be directed to consumption than the initial infrastructure and defense bias suggested, but it shouldn’t change the near-term multiplier much, just the long-term potential growth rate. 

Staying in Europe, the focus will be on the flash CPIs for September starting with Spain and Belgium today. Prints for Germany, France and Italy will be released tomorrow and the Eurozone print will be out on Wednesday. Our European economists preview the releases here. They expect a 2.22% report for the Eurozone, with country-level forecasts including 2.34% for Germany, 1.12% for France and 1.67% for Italy. Finally, the September CPI report is also due for Switzerland on Thursday.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 29

• Data: US September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, August pending home sales, UK August net consumer credit, M4, Eurozone September economic, industrial, services confidence
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller, Bostic and Hammack speak, ECB’s Muller, Lane, Cipollone and Centeno speak, BoJ’s Noguchi speaks, BoE’s Ramsden speaks
• Earnings: Carnival

Tuesday September 30

• Data: US September Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, MNI Chicago PMI, August JOLTS report, July FHFA house price index, China September PMIs, UK September Lloyds Business Barometer, Q2 current account balance, Japan August industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, Germany September CPI, unemployment claims rate, August retail sales, import price index, France September CPI, August consumer spending, PPI, Italy September CPI, August PPI, July industrial sales
• Central banks: RBA decision, Fed’s Jefferson and Goolsbee speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Rehn, Cipollone and Nagel speak, BoE’s Lombardelli, Mann and Breeden speak, BoJ summary of opinions from the September meeting
• Earnings: Nike

Wednesday October 1

• Data: US September ISM index, ADP report, total vehicle sales, August construction spending, Japan 3Q Tankan survey, Italy September manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone September CPI, Canada September manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Logan speaks, ECB’s Guindos, Kazimir, Kocher, Nagel and Simkus speak, BoE’s Mann speaks

Thursday October 2

• Data: US August factory orders, initial jobless claims, Japan September monetary base, consumer confidence index, France August budget balance, Italy August unemployment rate, Eurozone August unemployment rate, Switzerland September CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Logan speaks, ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf and Guindos speak, BoJ’s Uchida speaks, BoE’s September DMP survey
• Earnings: Tesco

Friday October 3

• Data: US September jobs report, ISM services, UK September official reserves changes, Japan August jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, France August industrial production, Italy September services PMI, August retail sales, Q2 deficit to GDP, Eurozone August PPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Williams and Jefferson speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Sleijpen, Villeroy and Schnabel speak, BoJ’s Ueda speaks, BoE’s Bailey speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, key economic data releases this week are the JOLTS report on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the employment report and the ISM services index on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Jefferson on Tuesday and Friday. But again, if the federal government shuts down on October 1, most data releases from federal agencies will be postponed until after the government reopens.

Monday, September 29 

• 07:30 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a speech on payments at the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Speech text is expected. On September 3rd, Governor Waller stressed that the FOMC needs “to get ahead of the labor market [weakening], because usually when the labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast.”
• 08:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a policy panel at the joint ECB-Cleveland Fed conference in Frankfurt, Germany. On September 22nd, President Hammack said that she has “a lot of concern about the level of inflation and [its] persistence,” adding that “if we remove [the current policy] restriction from the economy, things could start overheating again.” 
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, August (GS +1.0%, consensus flat, last -0.4%)
• 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, September (consensus -1.6, last -1.8)
• 01:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will participate in a panel at Washington University, St. Louis. Q&A is expected. On September 22nd, President Musalem said that while he “supported the 25bps reduction in the FOMC’s policy rate as a precautionary move intended to support the labor market at full employment and against further weakening,” he also believes that “there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative.” 
• 06:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate a conversation with Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta Air Lines, as part of the Atlanta Fed’s Leading Voices series. Audience Q&A is expected. On September 23rd, President Bostic said that with inflation “not having been at target for over four and a half years, we definitely need to be concerned about it,” and added that “it is incumbent upon us to continue to stay vigilant in the fight against inflation.” 

Tuesday, September 30 

• 06:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver a keynote speech at the Bank of Finland’s International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. 
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, July (consensus -0.1%, last -0.2%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, July (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.3%)
• 09:00 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will deliver remarks at the Council on Foreign Relation’s Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York City. Speech text and moderated Q&A with audience are expected. On September 22nd, President Collins noted that “an actively patient approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time.”
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, August (GS 7,250k, consensus 7,170k, last 7,181k)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, September (GS 96.0, consensus 96.0, last 97.4)
• 01:30 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A at the Chicago Fed’s 2025 Midwest Agriculture Conference in Chicago. Moderated Q&A is expected. On September 25th, President Goolsbee said that he is “somewhat uneasy with frontloading too many cuts based on just the payroll numbers coming down.” He added that “in the short term the most worrying thing is the possibility that after four and a half years of inflation above target, inflation now proves to be more persistent than we wanted it to be.”
• 07:10 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a moderated conversation at the Dallas Fed Survey Participants’ Appreciation Reception. Audience Q&A is expected. On September 25th, President Logan argued that the FOMC should consider targeting short-term interest rates other than the federal funds rate.

Wednesday, October 1 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, September (GS +60k, consensus +50k, last +54k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, September final (consensus 52.0, last 52.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, September (GS 49.2, consensus 49.0, last 48.7): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index increased 0.5pt to 49.2 in September, reflecting improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+0.6pt to 51.7).
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, August (GS flat, consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, September (GS 16.2mn, consensus 16.2mn, last 16.1mn)

Thursday, October 2 

• 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 27 (GS 220k, consensus 225k, last 218k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 20 (consensus 1,930k, last 1,926k)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, August (GS +1.3%, consensus +1.4%, last -1.3%); Durable goods orders, August final (GS +2.9%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, August final (last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, August final (last -0.3%)
• 10:30 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a moderated conversation at the University of Texas Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference in Austin. 

Friday, October 3 

• 06:05 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the farewell symposium for Klaas Knot, outgoing President of De Nederlandsche Bank, in Amsterdam, Netherlands. On September 4th, President Williams said that “if progress on our dual mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time.”
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, September (GS +80k, consensus +50k, last +22k); Private payroll employment, September (GS +85k, consensus +60k, last +83k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, September (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 80k in September. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls, reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls and a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We suspect August payroll growth will be revised higher, as has been typical over the last decade, though revisions so far this year have been disproportionately downward. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% on a rounded basis, reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims over the last month, though the bar for rounding up to 4.4% is not high from an unrounded 4.32% in August. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting negative calendar effects.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, September final (consensus 53.9, last 53.9)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, September (GS 52.0, consensus 51.7, last 52.0): We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 52.0 in September, reflecting sequential softening in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-1.6pt to 52.4) but a tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 01:40 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the economic outlook and the monetary policy framework at Drexel University in Philadelphia. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. 

Source: DB, Goldman

The UK recorded its largest-ever migrant crossing on a single vessel this weekend, according to Bloomberg – piling further pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer as his Labour Party convenes for its annual conference in Liverpool.

The Home Office confirmed that a boat carrying 125 people crossed from France to England on Saturday, breaking a previous record set in August when 107 people arrived in what was dubbed a “mega-dinghy.” The surge underscores the worsening crisis despite Starmer’s vow to “smash” the smuggling networks responsible for ferrying people across the Channel.

“These small boats crossings are utterly unacceptable and the vile people-smugglers behind them are wreaking havoc on our borders,” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in a statement. “Protecting the UK border is my priority as home secretary and I will explore all options to restore order to our immigration system.”

The weekend also saw tragedy. French officials told Agence France-Presse that two women died attempting the crossing, while a couple and their child were hospitalized with hypothermia. In total, 895 people crossed in 12 boats on Saturday, pushing year-to-date arrivals to record levels despite recent agreements with France, including a new returns deal.

The mounting numbers have placed migration firmly at the top of the political agenda, with polls showing voters ranking it above even the economy. Starmer is under intense pressure to stem the crossings as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party, which has surged ahead in national polling, capitalizes on public discontent. On Sunday, Starmer lashed out at Farage in a BBC interview, branding his anti-immigration policies “racist and immoral.” Even former US President Donald Trump has weighed in, urging Starmer to consider deploying the military to counter the crisis.

Among proposals under consideration is a plan to intercept boats in French waters and return them to the continent — an approach that would require French consent.

But as Starmer wrestles with external political threats, he is also facing dissent from within Labour. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham delivered a pointed critique of his leadership during a packed rally at the conference.

“How can you have an open debate about all of those things if there’s too much of a climate of fear within our party and the way the party is being run,” Burnham asked, according to Bloomberg, drawing cheers and applause. “We need to be more united.”

Burnham accused the leadership of stifling internal debate, pointing to the suspension of MPs over social media activity and support for lifting the child benefit cap. “To sustain the Labour government, you can’t be narrow and shallow,” he said.

His remarks have fueled speculation that he is positioning himself as an alternative to Starmer, with some media branding him “the king over the water.” Burnham rejected suggestions of disloyalty but left the door open to change: “We can make this government work. We can find that more hopeful direction, and we can win again at the next general election.”

The convergence of record migrant crossings, growing public anxiety, and open dissent within Labour has created one of the most fraught moments of Starmer’s premiership.