Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The world is not going to see another crisis like the ones experienced in 2008 or 2011. No central bank or government is going to accept it.

You may think the prospect is good news.

However, the flip side is that this means secular stagnation and perennial crisis for wage earners and the middle class. There is a slow-motion eternal crisis that leaves the average citizen wondering why they cannot make ends meet, while governments boast about their economic stability.

A crisis is only the manifestation of a previous excess. When governments prioritise prudent investments, healthy public accounts, and attractive taxes, crises end quickly, and the recovery is stronger. However, when governments claim to be the solution and mask economic imbalances with increased spending, debt, and taxes, they merely create a significant transfer of wealth from the private sector to themselves, resulting in persistent inflation, higher taxes, weaker productive growth, and lower real wages that burden taxpayers.

Many commentators warn of an imminent 2008-style collapse or a debt crisis driven by the unsustainable fiscal situation of developed nations. It will not be like that.

A sovereign debt bubble does not burst like a real estate one. It implodes via a vicious cycle of persistent inflation, stagnation and confiscatory taxes. A sovereign debt bubble explodes in your face and in your pocket, slowly but surely.

The world has entered an era characterised by ever-rising public debt, aggressive fiscal interventions, and the permanent financial repression of savers and the middle class.

This perennial crisis is very different from an abrupt crash. It is driven by the constant erosion of the purchasing power of fiat money, productivity, and living standards, fuelled by constant public debt expansion and policy responses that ignore any deleverage or structural reform to focus on more taxes on the productive sectors.

Developed nations have exceeded all limits of indebtedness, and global central banks are avoiding sovereign debt while increasing their gold reserves.

The economic limit: More government spending and public debt lead to lower growth and the impoverishment of citizens in net real terms.

The fiscal limit: low interest rates combined with higher taxes lead to large deficits and increased interest expenses.

The inflationary limit: More government spending means more units of currency in the system and persistent inflation.

The French, British, Japanese, and US debt crises may be inevitable without serious spending cuts. As these debt crises unfold, the process of impoverishment becomes slow and painful, accompanied by a decline in the value of fiat money.

In 2025, global debt has soared to a record $337.7 trillion, an all-time high of 324% of global GDP. The public sector is overwhelmingly leading this increase. France, the UK, and Japan, through years of ultra-low rates and misguided public stimulus, have disregarded the warning signs and dangers of uncontrolled spending and public debt, resulting in massive budget deficits and debt burdens approaching or surpassing 100% of GDP.

France is the prime example of the dangers of letting governments take control of the economy. France has never implemented austerity measures; instead, government spending is excessive, and the tax wedge is harmful. Government debt surpasses 116% of GDP, with interest payments tripling from €26 billion in 2020 to €66 billion today.

If high government spending and taxes were the tools to deliver growth and sustainable accounts, France would be leading the world’s economic growth. Instead, it is in secular stagnation.

High taxes are not a tool to reduce debt but to justify it.

In Britain, long-term borrowing costs have surged to levels not seen since 1998 due to the country’s poor growth, uncontrolled spending, and rising inflation that has been exacerbated by higher taxes.

Japan, seen by some as the perfect Keynesian example of ever-rising debt with no risk, is no longer immune. With debt nearing 260% of GDP, yields on Japanese government bonds have risen to record highs and the prime minister announced that Japan’s situation was “worse than Greece”.

Yields on developed nations’ 10-year notes have reached new highs. Credit markets no longer assign “convenience yields” to government debt as they once did; instead, borrowing costs are rising fast despite interest rate cuts, showing the risk of a solvency crisis despite easy money policies.

The first ones to run away are central banks themselves. Global central banks, once the guaranteed buyers of sovereign bonds, are abandoning developed nations’ debt as a reserve asset, increasing gold purchases at a record pace. In 2025, central banks collectively bought more than 1000 metric tonnes of gold for a third consecutive year, bringing official reserves to over 36,000 tonnes globally. 95% of central banks expect to further increase gold reserves in the next 12 months, and for the first time in recent decades, their gold holdings surpass US Treasuries and euro area bonds as main reserve assets.

The sovereign debt bubble is imploding, and it will be paid with a painful and slow process of years of financial repression and destruction of the middle class. Policymakers prefer chronic crisis management instead of risking a dramatic 2008-style crisis caused by defaults and rapid deleveraging. Central banks have abandoned their inflation fight to ensure the sovereign debt bubble is “dissolved” through financial repression: cutting interest rates, flooding the markets with liquidity, and tolerating persistent inflation. However, disguising the true scale of fiscal imbalances and rewarding fiscal irresponsibility at the expense of currency stability makes governments ignore all the warning signs and soldier on with irresponsible spending.

The ongoing crisis will make wage earners poorer and create a dependent subclass incapable of saving or investing. Real interest rates will remain negative and money supply will rise faster than productive growth.

We may not see an abrupt headline crisis. It will be slow and painful, because it is already happening. Furthermore, monetary madness and government spending that destroy the value of the currency will continue to drive asset prices and gold to rise in nominal terms.

This is why market participants cheer the same policies that destroy the fabric of the economy: because they see asset prices soaring as the currency fades.

The world faces a slow-motion destruction of currency purchasing power. Inflation remains a persistent threat, eroding wages and deposit savings. Resources divert from innovation to debt service and government bureaucracy, stalling productivity growth. Thus, the middle class suffers higher taxes and persistent inflation, losing disposable incomes and social mobility.

This situation is not a result of government incompetence; rather, it is a deliberate strategy to create a dependent subclass that relies on government assistance due to the repression and elimination of financial freedom. The next time you request free services from the government, keep in mind that you will ultimately pay for them multiple times.

Just a couple days ahead of Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth’s planned major gather of hundreds of senior military officers near Washington on Tuesday, and President Trump has let it be known that he plans to be in attendance at the unusual confab.

He told NBC News Sunday, “It’s really just a very nice meeting talking about how well we’re doing militarily, talking about being in great shape, talking about a lot of good, positive things. It’s just a good message.”

“We have some great people coming in and it’s just an ‘esprit de corps.’ You know the expression ‘esprit de corps’? That’s all it’s about. We’re talking about what we’re doing, what they’re doing, and how we’re doing,” he continued.

While no official explanation has yet to be given for why some 800 top commanders are being gathered – some traveling from bases across the globe, major media outlets in the US have been reporting it will merely be a big talk by Hegseth in maintaining “warrior ethos” and things like professional standards. It’s also being reported as one big “rally the troops” meeting.

Speculation has abounded, but Trump’s fresh words on maintaining proper military ethos while confirming that he plans to be there suggests Washington Post’s initial reporting is indeed accurate.

However, there’s been a high degree of controversy, given also that senior generals and admirals were not informed beforehand as to the content of the meeting, and official militar-wide messages related to discipline and standards are typically communicated via electronic messaging or secure teleconference.

The surprise decision for Trump to be there also of course adds major security concerns, on top of an already unprecedented situation of hundreds of high-ranking officers are being flown in from around the world.

MCB Quantico is about 30 minutes south of Washington D.C. – off I-35, and has several entrances and exits, and is home to significant government facilities like the FBI academy, the FBI lab, and HMX-1 Airbase.

Washington Post earlier noted that key Trump policies may have met with some resistance among top military ranks, and that Hegseth may intend to read them the riot act:

“Critics have argued that his policies have often not seemed aligned with lethality — core initiatives have included removing transgender service members, ordering new shaving standards military-wide and rebranding the Defense Department as ‘the Department of War,’ complete with new seals and signage marking the entrance to his offices at the Pentagon,” WaPo said.

There have in the last months been some firings and reshufflings of top command posts by Hegseth, who dismissed Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, Navy Reserve Chief Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, and Naval Special Warfare Command head Rear Adm. Milton Sands.

Was Trump not initially aware when it was first unveiled? Vance tries to do some damage control in an awkward moment…

This is pretty damning and terrifying at the same time.. Trump had no clue Hegseth called for 800+ generals to meet in Quantico for undisclosed reasons; trump took a guess that it was a NATO meeting when it is just US top brass

JD gaslights in an attempt to stop the blunder pic.twitter.com/F9y0PHEML5

— Phil Heraz (@HerazPhil) September 27, 2025

The optics of the meeting will be interesting, and Hegseth plans to record and later make public his speech. There still remains the possibility that WaPo and CNN’s reporting on it being about “warrior ethos” is flat wrong. Could this be war preparations in action? But things will soon become clear on Tuesday.

August data for the US housing market has been ‘mixed’ to say the least with a surge in new home sales (thanks to a massive rise in incentives from homebuilders) and a small decline (near multi-year lows), leaving this morning’s pending home sales data as the tie-breaker (with expectations of an ‘unch’ shift MoM).

It appears the drop in mortgage rates is driving some purchase activity as pending home sales soared 4.0% MoM in August – the most since March – dragging sales up 0.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

The MoM surge exceeded all estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“Lower mortgage rates are enabling more homebuyers to go under contract,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

The big MoM jump lifted the overall pending home sales index off multi-year lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge was especially strong in the Midwest, where sales jumped nearly 9% in August, Yun said, which was the most since early 2023. Contract signings also rose in the South and West.

Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest in a year at 6.34%, encouraging many Americans to get off the sidelines and others to finally list their homes for sale.

While the drop in mortgage rates is welcome, millions of Americans still have rates well below current levels and aren’t inclined to move, which has suppressed inventory and kept prices elevated.

Source: Bloomberg

The supply of existing homes for sale remains near five-year highs, as more people list their homes for sale, but the extra inventory isn’t yet pushing prices down.

Source: Bloomberg

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

This week’s big event might not actually happen, as payrolls Friday could be the first high profile victim of a potential government shutdown if Congress is unable to reach an agreement on a short-term funding resolution by midnight tomorrow night (see our preview here “Here’s What Happens When The US Government Shuts Down On Oct 1 And How Markets Will React“). Indeed, as Deutsche Bank reminds us, back in October 2013, the shutdown meant we didn’t get the September jobs report until the 22nd of the month.

We’ll preview both below, but the other main highlights this week are:

• Waller, Bostic and Hammock speaking today;
• US consumer confidence, JOLTS, China PMIs, German, French and Italian CPI, the RBA meeting and the Fed Jefferson and Goolsbee speaking tomorrow;
• US manufacturing ISM, the ADP, Eurozone CPI, and the Fed’s Logan speaking on Wednesday;
• US jobless claims and the Fed’s Logan speaking again on Thursday;
• US services ISM and the Fed’s Williams and Jefferson speaking on Friday. 

The full day-by-day calendar of events is at the end as usual.

Turning to the week’s main event, fears of a shutdown rose significantly last week, particularly after Trump cancelled a meeting planned with the Democratic leaders in the House and the Senate. But yesterday we heard that Trump will be meeting Democrat and Republican leaders today to try to broker a deal. So that helped the probability of a shutdown this year on Polymarket to fall from 84% yesterday to 63% this morning.

Such an event could still be later in the year if a stop-gap is put in place this week but overall the probability of one occurring is deemed to be more likely than not before the end of the year. Remember that even though the Republicans have a majority in both chambers, they still need Democratic votes in the Senate, as there’s a 60-vote threshold to avoid the filibuster.

If there is a shutdown, all non-essential federal employees would be furloughed, which DB’s economists estimate would cost the economy 0.2% per week on an annualized GDP basis. The longest shutdown was the 35 days straddling the end of 2018 and start of 2019. In 1996, we had one for 21 days and in 2013 one lasting 16 days. Others have lasted a few days or even only hours and before federal workers’ alarm clocks went off.

If we don’t see the shutdown and payrolls then get released, it’s a very important number given the recent negative revisions and real-time downtrend in new hiring, not to mention the Fed and market reaction function. We could be set for some notable volatility around these prints going forward as the breakeven payroll rate now seems to be around or under 50k per month. Given the naturally wide distribution of payroll numbers, this brings the prospect, and perhaps even the likelihood, of negative prints. These prints may not reflect the underlying trend but could lead to big moves. Given the breakeven rate has always been higher in our careers, we are not really conditioned to negative prints being within the margin of error, so reactions to such prints may be not be rational if and when they happen.

Having said that, for this month DB’s economists expect a rebound on the headline to +75k (consensus +50k) against +22k last month. For private payrolls they also expect +75k (consensus +60k) against +38k last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. So, the point above is more of an ongoing one over the coming months and quarters.  

Tomorrow’s JOLTS report is also important but only refers to August. So it’s always behind but is perhaps the more reliable indicator of the labor market. So far it has been fairly stable and indicative of a low hiring and low firing labor market. So stable, but with low numbers on both sides, and therefore it wouldn’t take a big change in the direction either way to make a big difference. We also have ADP on Wednesday and then we think jobless claims on Thursday would likely be released in a shutdown as it’s compiled by states. This happened in the 2013 shutdown but we can’t be 100% sure. Elsewhere for employment trends, the jobs hard/plentiful measure in tomorrow’s consumer confidence, as well as the employment subcomponents in the two ISM readings this week will also be important for the current state of play in the US labor market.  

The one other thing to say is that the start of Q4 on Wednesday brings the start of the multi-year German stimulus package. Given most careers have been soundtracked by German fiscal discipline, then we will all have to get used to a changing narrative. It’s fair to say that investors have become more pessimistic over the summer as to the extent of the difference it will make (just check out the DAX swoon after the early 2025 blast off) . However, some of this is just impatience and the momentum could kick into gear again soon. There is some disappointment that more will be directed to consumption than the initial infrastructure and defense bias suggested, but it shouldn’t change the near-term multiplier much, just the long-term potential growth rate. 

Staying in Europe, the focus will be on the flash CPIs for September starting with Spain and Belgium today. Prints for Germany, France and Italy will be released tomorrow and the Eurozone print will be out on Wednesday. Our European economists preview the releases here. They expect a 2.22% report for the Eurozone, with country-level forecasts including 2.34% for Germany, 1.12% for France and 1.67% for Italy. Finally, the September CPI report is also due for Switzerland on Thursday.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 29

• Data: US September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, August pending home sales, UK August net consumer credit, M4, Eurozone September economic, industrial, services confidence
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller, Bostic and Hammack speak, ECB’s Muller, Lane, Cipollone and Centeno speak, BoJ’s Noguchi speaks, BoE’s Ramsden speaks
• Earnings: Carnival

Tuesday September 30

• Data: US September Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, MNI Chicago PMI, August JOLTS report, July FHFA house price index, China September PMIs, UK September Lloyds Business Barometer, Q2 current account balance, Japan August industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, Germany September CPI, unemployment claims rate, August retail sales, import price index, France September CPI, August consumer spending, PPI, Italy September CPI, August PPI, July industrial sales
• Central banks: RBA decision, Fed’s Jefferson and Goolsbee speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Rehn, Cipollone and Nagel speak, BoE’s Lombardelli, Mann and Breeden speak, BoJ summary of opinions from the September meeting
• Earnings: Nike

Wednesday October 1

• Data: US September ISM index, ADP report, total vehicle sales, August construction spending, Japan 3Q Tankan survey, Italy September manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone September CPI, Canada September manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Logan speaks, ECB’s Guindos, Kazimir, Kocher, Nagel and Simkus speak, BoE’s Mann speaks

Thursday October 2

• Data: US August factory orders, initial jobless claims, Japan September monetary base, consumer confidence index, France August budget balance, Italy August unemployment rate, Eurozone August unemployment rate, Switzerland September CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Logan speaks, ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf and Guindos speak, BoJ’s Uchida speaks, BoE’s September DMP survey
• Earnings: Tesco

Friday October 3

• Data: US September jobs report, ISM services, UK September official reserves changes, Japan August jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, France August industrial production, Italy September services PMI, August retail sales, Q2 deficit to GDP, Eurozone August PPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Williams and Jefferson speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Sleijpen, Villeroy and Schnabel speak, BoJ’s Ueda speaks, BoE’s Bailey speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, key economic data releases this week are the JOLTS report on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the employment report and the ISM services index on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Jefferson on Tuesday and Friday. But again, if the federal government shuts down on October 1, most data releases from federal agencies will be postponed until after the government reopens.

Monday, September 29 

• 07:30 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a speech on payments at the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Speech text is expected. On September 3rd, Governor Waller stressed that the FOMC needs “to get ahead of the labor market [weakening], because usually when the labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast.”
• 08:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a policy panel at the joint ECB-Cleveland Fed conference in Frankfurt, Germany. On September 22nd, President Hammack said that she has “a lot of concern about the level of inflation and [its] persistence,” adding that “if we remove [the current policy] restriction from the economy, things could start overheating again.” 
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, August (GS +1.0%, consensus flat, last -0.4%)
• 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, September (consensus -1.6, last -1.8)
• 01:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will participate in a panel at Washington University, St. Louis. Q&A is expected. On September 22nd, President Musalem said that while he “supported the 25bps reduction in the FOMC’s policy rate as a precautionary move intended to support the labor market at full employment and against further weakening,” he also believes that “there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative.” 
• 06:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate a conversation with Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta Air Lines, as part of the Atlanta Fed’s Leading Voices series. Audience Q&A is expected. On September 23rd, President Bostic said that with inflation “not having been at target for over four and a half years, we definitely need to be concerned about it,” and added that “it is incumbent upon us to continue to stay vigilant in the fight against inflation.” 

Tuesday, September 30 

• 06:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver a keynote speech at the Bank of Finland’s International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. 
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, July (consensus -0.1%, last -0.2%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, July (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.3%)
• 09:00 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will deliver remarks at the Council on Foreign Relation’s Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York City. Speech text and moderated Q&A with audience are expected. On September 22nd, President Collins noted that “an actively patient approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time.”
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, August (GS 7,250k, consensus 7,170k, last 7,181k)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, September (GS 96.0, consensus 96.0, last 97.4)
• 01:30 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A at the Chicago Fed’s 2025 Midwest Agriculture Conference in Chicago. Moderated Q&A is expected. On September 25th, President Goolsbee said that he is “somewhat uneasy with frontloading too many cuts based on just the payroll numbers coming down.” He added that “in the short term the most worrying thing is the possibility that after four and a half years of inflation above target, inflation now proves to be more persistent than we wanted it to be.”
• 07:10 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a moderated conversation at the Dallas Fed Survey Participants’ Appreciation Reception. Audience Q&A is expected. On September 25th, President Logan argued that the FOMC should consider targeting short-term interest rates other than the federal funds rate.

Wednesday, October 1 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, September (GS +60k, consensus +50k, last +54k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, September final (consensus 52.0, last 52.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, September (GS 49.2, consensus 49.0, last 48.7): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index increased 0.5pt to 49.2 in September, reflecting improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+0.6pt to 51.7).
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, August (GS flat, consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, September (GS 16.2mn, consensus 16.2mn, last 16.1mn)

Thursday, October 2 

• 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 27 (GS 220k, consensus 225k, last 218k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 20 (consensus 1,930k, last 1,926k)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, August (GS +1.3%, consensus +1.4%, last -1.3%); Durable goods orders, August final (GS +2.9%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, August final (last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, August final (last -0.3%)
• 10:30 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a moderated conversation at the University of Texas Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference in Austin. 

Friday, October 3 

• 06:05 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the farewell symposium for Klaas Knot, outgoing President of De Nederlandsche Bank, in Amsterdam, Netherlands. On September 4th, President Williams said that “if progress on our dual mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time.”
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, September (GS +80k, consensus +50k, last +22k); Private payroll employment, September (GS +85k, consensus +60k, last +83k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, September (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 80k in September. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls, reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls and a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We suspect August payroll growth will be revised higher, as has been typical over the last decade, though revisions so far this year have been disproportionately downward. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% on a rounded basis, reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims over the last month, though the bar for rounding up to 4.4% is not high from an unrounded 4.32% in August. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting negative calendar effects.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, September final (consensus 53.9, last 53.9)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, September (GS 52.0, consensus 51.7, last 52.0): We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 52.0 in September, reflecting sequential softening in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-1.6pt to 52.4) but a tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 01:40 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the economic outlook and the monetary policy framework at Drexel University in Philadelphia. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. 

Source: DB, Goldman

The UK recorded its largest-ever migrant crossing on a single vessel this weekend, according to Bloomberg – piling further pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer as his Labour Party convenes for its annual conference in Liverpool.

The Home Office confirmed that a boat carrying 125 people crossed from France to England on Saturday, breaking a previous record set in August when 107 people arrived in what was dubbed a “mega-dinghy.” The surge underscores the worsening crisis despite Starmer’s vow to “smash” the smuggling networks responsible for ferrying people across the Channel.

“These small boats crossings are utterly unacceptable and the vile people-smugglers behind them are wreaking havoc on our borders,” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in a statement. “Protecting the UK border is my priority as home secretary and I will explore all options to restore order to our immigration system.”

The weekend also saw tragedy. French officials told Agence France-Presse that two women died attempting the crossing, while a couple and their child were hospitalized with hypothermia. In total, 895 people crossed in 12 boats on Saturday, pushing year-to-date arrivals to record levels despite recent agreements with France, including a new returns deal.

The mounting numbers have placed migration firmly at the top of the political agenda, with polls showing voters ranking it above even the economy. Starmer is under intense pressure to stem the crossings as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party, which has surged ahead in national polling, capitalizes on public discontent. On Sunday, Starmer lashed out at Farage in a BBC interview, branding his anti-immigration policies “racist and immoral.” Even former US President Donald Trump has weighed in, urging Starmer to consider deploying the military to counter the crisis.

Among proposals under consideration is a plan to intercept boats in French waters and return them to the continent — an approach that would require French consent.

But as Starmer wrestles with external political threats, he is also facing dissent from within Labour. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham delivered a pointed critique of his leadership during a packed rally at the conference.

“How can you have an open debate about all of those things if there’s too much of a climate of fear within our party and the way the party is being run,” Burnham asked, according to Bloomberg, drawing cheers and applause. “We need to be more united.”

Burnham accused the leadership of stifling internal debate, pointing to the suspension of MPs over social media activity and support for lifting the child benefit cap. “To sustain the Labour government, you can’t be narrow and shallow,” he said.

His remarks have fueled speculation that he is positioning himself as an alternative to Starmer, with some media branding him “the king over the water.” Burnham rejected suggestions of disloyalty but left the door open to change: “We can make this government work. We can find that more hopeful direction, and we can win again at the next general election.”

The convergence of record migrant crossings, growing public anxiety, and open dissent within Labour has created one of the most fraught moments of Starmer’s premiership.

In a bombshell revelation, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov alleged that French intelligence services attempted to strong-arm him into censoring conservative Moldovan channels ahead of critical parliamentary elections.

Durov, who was arrested at a Paris airport last year, claims in a now-viral post on X that the pressure through French authorities while he was under judicial supervision in France. The Russian-born tech billionaire wrote that French authorities approached him through an intermediary roughly a year ago, demanding Telegram remove several Moldovan channels. While Telegram did take down some accounts that violated its policies, Durov alleged the plot thickened when the intermediary relayed a shady offer: French intelligence promised to “put in a good word” with the judge overseeing his case if expanded cooperation.

🇲🇩 About a year ago, while I was stuck in Paris, the French intelligence services reached out to me through an intermediary, asking me to help the Moldovan government censor certain Telegram channels ahead of the presidential elections in Moldova.

After reviewing the channels…

— Pavel Durov (@durov) September 28, 2025

Durov, who holds both Russian and French citizenship, was arrested in August 2024 on charges tied to alleged crimes by Telegram users, including extremism and child abuse. Released on €5 million ($5.85 million) bail, the billionaire remains under judicial supervision.

“This was a blatant attempt to manipulate justice,” Durov wrote, slamming the move as either interference in his legal case or a ploy to meddle in Moldova’s elections. When a second list of “problematic” channels surfaced, the mogul said that nearly all were legitimate, with no violations of Telegram’s rules.

“We refused to comply,” the mogul said. “Telegram stands for free speech. We will not remove content for political reasons, and I’ll keep exposing every attempt to bully our platform.”

Durov’s allegations come as Moldova gears up for a heated parliamentary election, pitting President Maia Sandu’s pro-EU Action and Solidarity Party against the Patriotic Electoral Bloc.

In March, Durov was permitted to leave France in March and is believed to have returned to his residence in Dubai. The UAE government, where Durov became a citizen in 2021, is reportedly keeping a close eye on his high-profile legal saga.

Following his arrest, Telegram sent shockwaves through its user base by overhauling its privacy policies. The platform, once a staunch defender of user anonymity, announced it would hand over data like IP addresses and phone numbers to law enforcement if presented with valid legal orders. This marked a departure from its earlier stance, which limited data sharing to terrorism-related probes, and even then, Telegram claimed it had never complied.

In January, Durov told prosecutors that he “fully grasped the gravity” of the allegations against him, which include charges tied to criminal activity on Telegram, such as extremism and child abuse. That same month, the messaging giant, long celebrated for its ironclad privacy protections, ramped up cooperation with U.S. authorities.

Throughout much of 2024, Telegram kept data-sharing with U.S. law enforcement to a bare minimum, complying with just 14 requests affecting 108 users by September’s end. But in a significant shift, the last three months of the year saw a noticeable surge, with the number of impacted users soaring to 2,253.

On the back of a 45% surge in the price of gold this year, the US Treasury’s hoard of the barbarous relic has surpassed $1 trillion in value for the first time in history.

That is more than 90 times what’s stated on the government’s balance sheet and is reigniting speculation that Treasury Secretary Bessent could revalue (mark to market) the massive pile of precious metal

Unlike most countries, the US’s gold is held by the government directly, rather than the central bank.

The Fed instead holds gold certificates corresponding to the value of the Treasury’s holdings, and credits the government with dollars in return. 

That means, as we detailed previously, that an update of the reserves’ value in line with today’s prices would unleash roughly $990 billion into the Treasury’s coffers, dramatically reducing the need to issue quite so many Treasury bonds this year.

While Treasury Secretary Bessent initially dismissed the suggestion, a trillion dollars here and a trillion dollars there adds up and it would be by no means unprecedented. As Bloomberg reports, Germany, Italy and South Africa all have taken the decision to revalue their reserves in recent decades, as an August note from an economist at the Federal Reserve discussed.

US gold re-marking would have implications for both the Treasury & Fed balance sheets. 

• US Treasury: assets would rise by the value of the gold re-marking & liabilities would rise by the size of gold certificates issued to the Fed. 

• Federal Reserve: assets would rise by value of gold certificates & liabilities would rise by a crediting of cash in the Treasury cash balance (Exhibit 4). And here is the punchline: the Fed balance sheet impact would look like QE though no open market purchases would be required & Fed liability growth would initially be in TGA. 

In other words, the best of all words: a QE-like operation, one which see the Fed quietly funnel almost $700 billion in cash to the Treasury… but without actually doing a thing!

On net, a gold re-marking would increase the size of both Treasury & Fed balance sheets + allow for TGA to be used for Treasury priorities (i.e. SWF, pay down debt, fund deficit, etc). Meanwhile, the Fed and Treasury magically conjure some $990 billion out of thing air to be spent on whatever, all because the Treasury agrees that the fair value of gold is… the fair value of gold.

Needless to say, a gold re-marking would be seen by the market as unorthodox, if not completely unexpected. US gold has not been re-marked for decades likely to guard against (1) volatility of Treasury & Fed balance sheets (2) concerns over fiscal & monetary authority independence. 

According to  none other than BofA’s heaviest of Fed plumbing hitters, former NY Fed staffer Mark Cabana, a gold re-marking could cause TGA to be paid down in ways that stoke macro activity, risk inflation, & add excess cash into the banking system (higher TGA would eventually move to higher Fed reserves or ON RRP balances). In essence, gold re-marking would ease both fiscal & monetary policy (all else equal).

Indeed, as we said back in February, just like a QE but without the actual QE.

The BofA strategist’s conclusion is that gold re-marking is possible (and certainly likely after Bessent’s earlier comments), but has legal questions, “may not be well received by the market since it would amount to an easing of fiscal & monetary policies + erosion of fiscal / monetary independence” (yup, QE under any other name…). And, not unironically, the revaluation of gold will also send the price of gold (not to mention bitcoin and anything else that may also be subsequently remonetized) soaring.

As such, BofA still places low odds of US asset monetization until Bessent provides more credible detail on how he will “monetize the asset side of the US balance sheet.” We, however, having realized that Trump moves very fast and breaks everything in his path, are confident that the odds of a gold revaluation are surging, and are a big part of why gold is trading just shy of $4000…

For more, including what the rates market impact of a gold re-marking would be across the entire complex, read the full note from February avaliable to pro subscribers in the usual place.

OSINT-focused X accounts cite flight tracking data that shows a wave of U.S. air tankers deploying to Europe. The timing coincides with President Trump’s scheduled last-minute meeting with senior military leadership in northern Virginia on Tuesday. Historical precedent is very notable here: the last comparable mass tanker deployment (read report) preceded U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure by five days. 

Notable and most credible X accounts have reported an immediate deployment of U.S. air tankers to Europe. 

“Roughly a dozen U.S. Air Force KC-135R/T “Stratotanker” Aerial-Refueling Tankers are currently up from a number of airbases across the United States, heading northeast and preparing to cross the Atlantic towards Europe, with several appearing to be enroute to RAF Mildenhall in England,” X account OSINTdefender said. The X user appears to have sourced Flight

Roughly a dozen U.S. Air Force KC-135R/T “Stratotanker” Aerial-Refueling Tankers are currently up from a number of airbases across the United States, heading northeast and preparing to cross the Atlantic towards Europe, with several appearing to be enroute to RAF Mildenhall in… pic.twitter.com/MAqLydu1Th

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 29, 2025

Other OSINT-focused X accounts report similar U.S. air tanker movements to Europe, which typically implies that the U.S. or NATO is responding to an urgent military need.

🇺🇸🇪🇺 8 US Air Force tankers are on their way to Europe.

The last time such a move indicated the attack on Iran, but this can also be done for exercise purposes.

1/ pic.twitter.com/233XBivCtv

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) September 29, 2025

We are seeing a large deployment of USAF aerial refueling tankers currently crossing the Atlantic toward Europe. Other assets are airborne which are not visible on ADS-B tracking data. pic.twitter.com/h9wgEaI6xe

— The Enforcer (@ItsTheEnforcer) September 29, 2025

Hmm. 

Who is getting bombed this time https://t.co/nIjlR2hizd

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 29, 2025

If we’ve learned anything from the most recent precedent (read report) in June…. 

This remains a key development to monitor. 

Via VigilantFox.com,

Something terrible is happening in Nigeria, and too few Americans, even Republicans, know it exists.

For years, Nigeria has been one of the most dangerous countries in the world to be a Christian. Radical groups like Boko Haram and Fulani militants have waged relentless campaigns of terror, massacring villages, kidnapping women and children, and destroying churches.

According to leading human rights groups, over 15 million Christians have been displaced since 2009, tens of thousands killed, and more than 19,000 churches burned to the ground. Survivors describe a systematic attempt to erase Christianity from vast regions of the country.

Despite these staggering numbers, the story rarely breaks into Western headlines, and the silence has left millions unaware of the scale of the crisis.

However, that chilling reality got exposed on Bill Maher’s show on Friday.

Maher, a proud atheist, had a surprising moment on air when he called out this slaughter of Christians that the media ignores.

Bill Maher delivers a surprising moment on air as he calls out the slaughter of CHRISTIANS in Nigeria that the media refuses to cover.

“If you don’t know what’s going on in Nigeria, your media sources SUCK,” Maher said.

“You are in a BUBBLE. I’m not a Christian, but they are… pic.twitter.com/XzDD3LYBPB

— Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) September 27, 2025

“If you don’t know what’s going on in Nigeria, your media sources SUCK,” Maher said bluntly.

“You are in a BUBBLE. I’m not a Christian, but they are systematically killing the Christians in Nigeria,” he continued.

“They’ve killed over 100,000 since 2009. They’ve burned 18,000 churches… They are literally attempting to wipe out the Christian population of an entire country.”

Pointing to the focus on Gaza, Maher asked, “Where are the kids protesting this?”

His diatribe drew a huge applause from the crowd, and a big thank you from Rep. Nancy Mace (R – South Carolina) for putting a spotlight on the crisis.

“Absolutely,” Maher responded.

For once, this story got the attention it deserved. And it took a classic liberal like Bill Maher — not the media — to put a spotlight on one of the greatest humanitarian crises of our time.