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“We Can’t Do Any Planning”; Dallas Fed Manufacturers Uniformly Negative

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“We Can’t Do Any Planning”; Dallas Fed Manufacturers Uniformly Negative

As we await a maelstrom of Level 1 macro data this week, you could be forgiven glancing wistfully at this morning’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey’s modest headline beat (small decline MoM) and thinking “meh.”

That would be a mistake…

Production is soaring (yay!!) and is forecast to remain strong…

Employment is up (yay)… BUT is expected to plunge…

And more worryingly, Prices Paid and expected Prices Received are accelerating  again…

Ok so with all that in mind, here are the (uniformly negative) responses from the surveyed group of manufacturers. They don’t sound like a bunch of business owners expecting new orders and production to improve…

  • Tariffs and fuel prices are affecting incoming and outgoing products/costs. Customers have hit the limit on what they can pay. We are getting pushback and cancellations (Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing

  • Fuel costs (diesel, in particular) are adversely impacting our bottom line and that of our customers. We’d welcome a quicker resolution to the conflict with Iran as we believe that could potentially provide more favorable outcomes, improved margins and stability in interest rates. Insurance rates continue to increase in cost with a decrease in coverage. Overall, however, we continue to expand operations with an ever-increasing backlog that will provide a record year of revenue and net income for our enterprise in 2026 (Machinery manufacturing)

  • We are now facing increased difficulty obtaining raw materials domestically. Items that were readily available now take long lead times or are not available in the same specifications we have historically purchased (Miscellaneous manufacturing)

  • The price of diesel fuel is hurting our gross margin. We are unable to pass this through to our customers. We are bidding new jobs using $6.00 [per gallon] for diesel cost (Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing)

  • Broadly speaking, very little to no manufacturing growth exists as pricing is being driven down by Asian and Chinese suppliers. AI and heavy transportation are growing. Other sectors are weak (Plastics and rubber products manufacturing)

  • Our business has been able to maintain its volume, primarily because several competitors have experienced significant difficulties, including the largest producer in our industry announcing the closure of two plants, one of which is relatively close to us in Louisiana. Our primary concern going forward is the outcome of the U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations. There are significant flows of foreign aluminum into Mexico, including from countries with substantial non-market production and subsidization including Russia and China at prices far below U.S. prices. We are concerned that reduction in tariffs on Mexican aluminum products will give these non-market economies a significantly advantaged conduit into our domestic markets. Rules of Origin policies sound good in theory but experience shows that this relies on the honesty of those doing the reporting. PROSECs (Program for Sectoral Promotion) are also problematic in giving Mexican companies the ability to use these same foreign-supplied raw materials in downstream products. For U.S. aluminum producers, the issue isn’t simply the tariff rate applied to Mexico. It is making sure that Mexico does not become a lower-tariff pathway for heavily subsidized aluminum produced in Russia, China or elsewhere in Asia to reach the U.S. market. (Primary metal manufacturing)=

  • Incoming orders have really slowed down, and now that we are finishing up on some large projects that have kept us very busy since mid-spring, things are slowing down. We have to believe it’s due to the uncertainty around the chaos out of Washington, D.C. and lack of a clear path forward. Add to this the higher cost of living and rising fuel costs, especially for diesel that affects all modes of shipping, it seems to be a logical reason for slower levels of activity amongst our customers (Printing and related support activities)

  • High interest and energy costs are a double hit. We can’t do any planning (Transportation equipment manufacturing)

Forgive rus our ignorance here but how the fuck is a sentiment index higher pretty much across the board and yet respondents are literally uniformly negative?

We guess that’s why the smarty pants PhDs get paid the big bucks…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 13:20

Gold, Banking, & A Historical Disturbance In The Force

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Gold, Banking, & A Historical Disturbance In The Force

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via Von Greyerz,

With everything from yields, fuel prices and populism rising with open elan as trust in U.S. leadership sinks to an historical nadir, most would agree that we are experiencing a palpable as well as intuitive feeling of what George Lucas might otherwise describe as a “disturbance in the force.”

Markets, led today by a narrow handful of tech juggernauts, continue their nervous melt-up despite openly embarrassing indicators of both over- and malinvestment, as yet another game-changing technological wave of AI dystopia seduces the retail plankton into a textbook setup for an historical meltdown.

In the interim, a small minority of early IPO participants and C-suite insiders with advantageous access to easy capital from the big, credit-extending banks will make fortunes.

Unfortunately, small businesses across the rest of the ignored landscape of the American nightmare just posted a 64% Year-over-Year increase in bankruptcy filings.

From Capitalism to Neo-Feudalism

Such trends, numbers and “forces” are screaming indicators of what I have long described as an America whose superficial claims of “capitalism” are little more than terms of art masking the darker reality of the neo-feudalism now staining the façade of the so-called American dream.

As my son and I enjoyed yesterday’s football game (against Iowa) live from the University of Michigan’s impressive “Big House” stadium, that same university’s infamous consumer sentiment indicator just posted its worst numbers in its five-decade+ history.

Such data effectively confirms that a recession is not only off our bow, but it’s under our keel.

But hey, why worry? We can rename Lake Ontario to “Lake America”, and all will be well again, right?

And let’s not forget that the NASDAǪ 100 has given us five-year returns North of 100%, right?

Even Pam Bondi can remind us to focus on the DOW to keep our faith in American Exceptionalism forever flamed, right?

Hmmm…

The Hidden Crimes

But what few (so very, very few) have realized is that when measured in real money, namely gold, those so-called impressive returns reveal a loss of >20% rather than a gain of 100%.

In other words, if many still think a mythical stock market bubble is going to save us, it’s only because they still think measuring wealth in that melting ice cube, otherwise known as the nominal U.S. dollar, is an actual measure of anything.

For bonds, the story is far darker. Over the last 12 years, USTs, when measured in gold rather than dollars, have punished “safe investors” with a net loss of 90%. How’s that for wealth preservation?

That’s not a typo. It’s a crime.

Based on decades of monetizing trillions in budget deficits with trillions in magical money mouse-clicked at the Eccles Building, the so-called “experts” have been killing the purchasing power of your currency (and hence wealth) in an incremental death by a thousand cuts.

This murder has now become so exponential that even Wall Street has finally given it a name: “The Debasement Trade.“

But there’s more to this Debasement Trade than its name.

The actual, sad and oh-so dangerous reality of this trade is nothing more than an invisible tax on your wealth, which operates in actual (yet hidden) fact as unarmed robbery on a historical scale.

The Hidden Criminals…

If this engineered wealth transfer makes you angry, and it should, the natural reaction to such a crime is to better understand who committed it.

As usual, the best evidence trail for such questions and crimes is simple: Just follow the money…

And this trail, not surprisingly, begins and ends with the centralized power, centralized crimes and centralized (yet hidden) motives of our centralized banks, whose real mandate was never controlling “inflation and employment.”

Their real motive was equally simple. It was simply to control your money.

The Not-So Federal Reserve

When the U.S. Federal Reserve (which is neither federal nor a reserve) was not so immaculately conceived on Jekyll Island and later birthed in 1913 in Washington, DC by a cabal of private bankers, Woodrow Wilson signed his shaking pen to the greatest wealth transfer in the history of our nation.

Rather than allow the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the cost and supply of credit, a handful of private bankers took monopoly control of the same.

Banking Unveiled – Benefiting the Few at the Expense of the Many

The net result has been precisely what our 7th President, Andrew Jackson, warned as far back as 1832, namely, that our financial system would be prostituted for the “benefit of the few at the expense of the many.”

Jackson knew this because long before this otherwise unconstitutional central bank made its ironic yet deliberate way to Constitution Avenue, he understood the history, tricks and secrets of powerful banks and powerful bankers.

He knew, for example, that indebted princes, kings, presidents and even warlords of flag after flag and nation after nation never held the real power.

Real power, even the power behind armies and capitols, is nothing without the money to wield it, and that money begins and ends with banks and bankers.

He also knew that nations beholden to banks can also extract money from the masses, which is why it was no coincidence that in the very same year the Fed came into law in 1913, so too did the first Federal Income Tax legislation…

The Crazy Mechanics of Credit (and Money) Creation

Jackson further understood how banks actually operate, which is something almost no one is meant or taught to understand, and that’s because it’s so crazy that if they did, it would unmask the crime at the base of our so-called free society and free markets.

Banks, for example, are not just helpful little servants of Bedford Falls public trust who carefully manage depositor monies by judiciously re-lending one dollar of deposited cash for one dollar of wisely underwritten loans.

Oh no, not at all.

Instead, banks take a dollar of your depositor wealth and then add massive turns of leverage when they make their interest-carrying (typically risky) and bank-profiting loans of your money.

They then use very clever (and legalized) double-entry accounting tricks to hide the dirty little secret that whenever they are extending credit, they are actually creating money.

Such money creation via credit extension may seem academic, but when done at the scale of trillions and trillions, what was once academic just becomes inflationary, debasing, and- at levels this high – just plain criminal.

Credit Is Not Created Equal

By extending credit, leverage and money creation (i.e., debasement), powerful banks are also extending privilege, and this privilege is not shared equally.

Big banks, you know – the kind that are too big to fail – hold balance sheets in the trillions (especially when you tack on their notional derivatives exposure), which means they need to make big rather than small loans to move their money and extend their risk exposures.

Needless to say, small businesses and small citizens are not at the top of the priority list for these mega banks.

Instead, the big boys like to make deals with other big boys, which explains why access to capital is not created equal in the so-called land of the free.

Instead, the bigger loans are made to VC funds, mega tech monopolies and pooled superstars in the private equity and private credit corners, temporarily profiting from “sea to shining sea” from Palo Alto to New York City, but largely bypassing the little guys in the flyover states.

The Big Boys Are Not the Smart Boys

But just because these loans and capital infusions are unfairly distributed to the big boys, this by no means implies that they are made to the smartest boys.

Bailing Out the Bad Boys

But power protects power, and the very credit (i.e., banking) system which triggers the next mega crisis in a nation already $40T in public debt will be once again rescued (“bailed out”) by the very bankers and Treasury Secretaries (i.e., former bankers) who systematically created the crisis.

Remember TARP? Remember the BTFP?

In fact, the very same year our TBTF banks broke the global economy in 2008, over 500 bankers received bonuses in excess of $1M each…

It is fascinating how exempt such a system can be from accountability when the criminals are also the judges…

When the Cure and the Sickness Are One & the Same

Of course, the amount of “stimulus,” “accommodation”, and “synthetic liquidity” required to “save” the next banking (and hence credit) crisis will be historically expensive and hence historically ruinous to paper currencies in general and the USD in particular.

Yes, there is theoretically no crisis a money printer can’t solve, and no market dip or even market implosion that a money printer can’t remodel into a V-shaped “recovery.”

But such “solutions” or “recoveries” are as sickening as the very crises they pretend to “cure,” as they can only be achieved by even greater debasement (and money creation) than the debasement and money creation crisis by which the banking system is inherently defined.

In short, the sickness and the cure are one and the same, and the patient zero is always (and I mean always) a bank.

Gold: The Only Honest Solution

The more honest solution, of course, is as obvious as it is ignored by the vast majority of investors, bankers and even innocents of the ignored Main Streets.

That solution is now, and has always been, gold.

In crisis after crisis, bank disaster after bank disaster, and currency failure after currency failure, those families, institutions and sophisticated investors who held gold rather than paper money in a crisis where always the same ones who prevailed rather than failed when their currencies were inflated away/debased into nothing.

But just because your banking system has failed to protect your deposits or dollars in gold, this doesn’t mean you can’t be smarter than your “experts.”

Once you understand their tricks, powers and historical failures – it’s almost too easy. Gold is no longer a debate; it’s the solution.

And while goldbugs wait, there is now an option to collect as much as 4% yield on physical, paid out as additional ounces of physical gold, something our friends at Monetary Metals have been perfecting for years.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 13:00

MongoDB CEO’s Abrupt Exit For Meta Stuns Wall Street On Eve Of Investor Day

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MongoDB CEO’s Abrupt Exit For Meta Stuns Wall Street On Eve Of Investor Day

MongoDB shares plunged earlier Monday morning after CEO Chirantan “CJ” Desai abruptly stepped down and was tapped to lead Meta’s new AI platform for enterprise customers, which Mark Zuckerberg called “the next major pillar of our business.”

“To lead this effort, I’m excited that Chirantan “CJ” Desai will join Meta as Chief Enterprise Platform Officer, reporting directly to me,” Zuckerberg wrote on X around 0835 local time in New York. 

The business unit, called Meta Enterprise Platform, aims to “help businesses use AI to grow and transform in new ways as well,” Zuckerberg said. 

Zuckerberg continued, “CJ is an experienced enterprise leader with a track record of building full-stack software and delivering results in AI, infrastructure, business applications, and security.” 

MongoDB’s stock was down as much as 21% to $326.51 around 11 am local time in New York. This was the worst intraday decline since March 3. 

Needham software analyst Mike Cikos called the development “unfortunate, as it comes just a day before MongoDB’s Investor Day.” 

Here’s Cikos’ first take:

We view the timing of the announcement as unfortunate, as it comes just a day before MongoDB’s Investor Day (where Mr. Desai is still featured prominently on the company website).

In our view, MongoDB is executing strongly and Mr. Desai’s departure is not a reflection of MongoDB’s growth algorithm. If anything, we believe he leaves the company in a stronger position than when he found it – further maturing the go-to-market; and we note CFO Mike Berry has done an exceptional job instilling investor confidence in the guidance philosophy and demonstrating margin leverage.

However, we acknowledge the poor optics and timing of the CEO announcement, likely leading to bearish questions on competitive concerns (i.e. Postgres) and MongoDB’s ability to capture the AI Revenue opportunity.

Raymond James software analyst Mark Cash separately wrote:

MongoDB announced that CEO CJ Desai stepped down, effective immediately, while reaffirming guidance for F3Q27 (Oct.) and FY27 (Jan.). The announcement comes one day ahead of its analyst day, with Dev Ittycheria stepping in as Interim President and CEO. Ittycheria is MongoDB’s longtime former CEO (September 2014-November 2025) and a current board member; the board has initiated a search for a permanent CEO. 

MDB shares are sharply lower on the news, as we believe investors viewed Desai as having brought critical capabilities to execute MongoDB’s next phase of growth, particularly around scaling the business and deepening enterprise relationships to unlock incremental workloads. Desai had also made several leadership changes to position the company for the AI opportunity, and his departure introduces uncertainty around whether additional organizational changes could follow. We also believe Desai had been reshaping MongoDB’s messaging around the importance of its hybrid differentiation versus a more Atlas-centric focus, and we’ll be watching for how the longer-term vision is portrayed at tomorrow’s analyst day. Desai is now taking on leadership of Meta’s newly announced Enterprise Platform.

The abrupt leadership change certainly caught MongoDB analysts off guard this morning and just one day before Investor Day.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 12:40

Crude Plummets As Trump Dangles Iran Sanctions Relief In Surprise Nuclear Deal Hint

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Crude Plummets As Trump Dangles Iran Sanctions Relief In Surprise Nuclear Deal Hint

Summary

  • Trump signals Iran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices.

  • US-Iran talks may resume, but only indirectly, this week; however Tehran remains skeptical after Trump rejected its ceasefire proposal.

  • Iran announced targeting 19 vessels over a 48 hour period this weekend and is threatening to escalate further.

  • Oil prices fall: Brent below $100 and WTI below $95 as markets price in potential diplomacy.

  • Iran’s economy feels the pressure, with the rial hitting a record low near 2.3 million per dollar.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Yes 17% · No 85%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Oil Tumbles on the Unexpected: Trump Signals Sanctions Relief (…TACO Monday)

Al Jazeera is reporting that President Trump is signaling he’d be open to providing Iran with sanctions relief in return for nuclear concessions – though it remains that Tehran has throughout the war insisted that a ceasefire deal must be achieved first, before the nuclear file is dealt with.

US official says US President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, reports Al Jazeera

And…

CNN and Axios also run US offiicial comments (echoing Al Jazeera) that US President Trump is willing to grant Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for real progress on the nuclear issue.

As stocks jump, crude big plummet…

Note via Newsquawk: Oil sees downside, with slight Dollar pressure, while Treasuries, stocks, and spot gold see upside amid reports that Trump is ready to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear file. Meanwhile…

IRAN OFFICIALS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT DEAL WITH US BEFORE MIDTERMS

The Iranian response is what’s going to matter here. They will likely see in this another ploy to merely talk down oil prices, and have already repeatedly said they ‘don’t trust’ Trump. It was only on Friday night into Saturday that Trump outright rejected Iran’s 7-day ceasefire pitch – with not even so much as an effort to sit down and talk details. But apparently that could happen this week on an indirect basis, via the typical Gulf mediators.

Ayatollah New Threat

After a weekend which saw President Trump reject an Iranian proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and roadmap to peace, and Tehran in turn targeting 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the two sides once again have their fingers on the trigger.

Iran has said while it remains open to diplomacy, it is ‘fully prepared’ to resume the full-scale war with Washington, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday. On Monday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – who still hasn’t been seen since the war’s start and after his father’s assassination – has proclaimed his military has driven the ‘enemy’ from waters off southern Iran to the Arabian Sea.

“Having suffered painful blows from our valiant combatants and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz, they [the enemy] dare not venture beyond the Arabian Sea,” Khamenei said in a new message. He warned that war could soon come to the Arabian Sea as well.

via AFP

His words were issued on the annual remembrance of the Iran-Iraq War, as well as the anniversary of Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024.

“Whenever they have risked doing so they have only inflicted harm upon themselves, and the time is fast approaching when the Arabian Sea, too, will be cleared of their presence,” Khamenei’s message added. This marks an extension of threats from Iranian security officials last week which warned that war is coming to the Indian Ocean more broadly.

However, the reality also is that oil exports from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman have been climbing over the past week. But renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces are trying to hinder this uptick in transit, is looking more and more likely.

This as diplomacy is obviously stalled. Bloomberg observes, “Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal US President Donald Trump has rejected.” And, “In futures, oil rose as Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal that US President Donald Trump has rejected.”

Return to ‘Talks’ Narrative

Like clockwork, anonymous diplomatic officials are once again in pre-market Monday morning hours pushing a “talks” narrative. According to more latest from Bloomberg:

Mediators expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US, according to sources. Talks to focus on amended version of 7-day proposal Iran presented on UNGA sidelines.

Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President also supporting talks.

And the Wall Street Journal has a parallel Monday morning story: “Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war,” the publication says. On the headlines:

  • Brent Dec fell from USD 100.70/bbl to around USD 99.60/bbl.
  • WTI Nov dipped from USD 96/bbl to USD 94.90/bbl.

Trump in new comments to Axios:

“I expect more talks with Iran (this week),” Trump told Axios in a phone interview. “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.”

Araghchi apparently stayed in New York through the weekend following his attendance of the UN General Assembly, with President Pesheshkian having departed back to Iran.

Ready for “apocalyptic war” if it comes to that…

Meanwhile the US economic war is continuing to bite, with Iran’s currency has hitting another historic low against the US dollar, exacerbated by severe inflation and the Trump/Bessent ‘Economic D-Day’ and ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ campaigns which seek to strangle the country. Financial trackers note that the free market exchange rate has escalated to 2.3 million rials per US dollar. 

Weekend & Overnight Developments

via Newsquawk

  • US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
  • US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
  • US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
  • US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
  • Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
  • IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
  • Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
  • Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
  • Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
  • Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 12:33

Why Record Heat Failed To Lift US Natural Gas Prices

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Why Record Heat Failed To Lift US Natural Gas Prices

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

Henry Hub natural gas averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, 6% below the same period last year, even with the Lower 48 posting its hottest July on record.

Average temperatures across the Lower 48 reached 77°F in July, according to NOAA, pushing electricity demand higher as air conditioners ran harder.

Solar and wind took a large share of that extra power demand.

Solar generation increased by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatt-hours from June through August compared with the same period in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration. Wind generation added another 9.3 BkWh.

Natural gas-fired generation increased by 7.5 BkWh.

The increase from wind and solar was nearly four times the increase from natural gas-fired generation during the summer.

Gas supply was also running ahead of last year. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 2.7 billion cubic feet per day more from June through August, a 2% increase, with the Permian among the biggest sources of growth.

EIA expects dry gas production to average a record 111.2 Bcf/d for 2026.

[ZH: Quite a different picture for the Europeans…]

Storage entered the April injection season with 1.906 trillion cubic feet of working gas, 4% above the previous five-year average. Monthly injections beat their respective five-year averages in every month through August except May.

Maintenance at U.S. LNG terminals moderated demand growth from the export sector during the summer, leaving more gas available for power generation and storage.

EIA expects Lower 48 working gas inventories to reach 3.985 trillion cubic feet by the end of October, about 5% above the five-year average.

The hottest July on record increased gas-fired power generation without tightening the market enough to lift Henry Hub above last summer’s average.

Record production, strong storage injections and nearly 29 BkWh of additional wind and solar generation kept the gas market well supplied through the peak cooling months.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 12:25

Authorities Warn Against “Speculation” After Five British Nationals Arrested Near UK Airbase On Suspicion Of Terrorism

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Authorities Warn Against “Speculation” After Five British Nationals Arrested Near UK Airbase On Suspicion Of Terrorism

Summary:

  • All Five Suspects Arrested On Terrorism and Explosives Suspicions are British Nationals
  • Reuters Says Possible Iranian-Linked Motive Likely 
  • Trump Says Suspects “Looking to do Big Damage” Against Airbase 
  • US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On “Delta” Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans

All Five Suspects Arrested On Terrorism and Explosives Suspicions are British Nationals

Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford early Sunday morning on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offenses.

Reuters reports that the men were all in their mid-twenties and were British nationals living in London.

“At this time, we are working to establish the full circumstances of the activity of those arrested, their knowledge and any motivation behind this incident,” Counter Terrorism Police said in the statement.

“I am very aware of the levels of speculation about the motivation behind this incident, and the geopolitical questions that are being raised. However, I ask that at this time, Counter Terrorism Policing are given the space to work carefully and clearly.”

RAF Fairford is a critical node for the US military’s long-range bomber force, supporting deployments of B-52s, B-1B Lancers and B-2 stealth bombers. Its role in strikes on Iran makes a conflict-related motive worth considering. 

UK authorities have not publicly established that connection, but the strategic airbase raises the possibility that the suspected activity was intended to disrupt US bomber operations beyond the Gulf area. 

Trump Says Suspects “Looking to do Big Damage” 

Reuters reported that an Iranian-linked motive could very well be behind the incident that unfolded early Sunday morning, citing a source familiar with the investigation. Counterterrorism investigators are also examining the possibility of Russian sabotage or an Islamist plot. 

President Trump told reporters earlier this afternoon that British and US authorities had been monitoring the suspects and alleged they intended to cause “big damage.”

“We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort and working with the British worked out great … We had them under view for a long time, and we got them,” Trump said.

Police established a 400-meter perimeter while bomb-disposal personnel examined the three vans near RAF Fairford in western England. Notably, the airfield hosts strategic US bombers.

The bomb squad found large black barrels inside the vans.

RAF Fairford has become a critical node for US military operations against Iran. Tehran warned in July that airbases used to launch attacks would be considered legitimate targets.

Here’s the latest from X user Politics UK:

  • A farmer driving home in the early hours found three white vans blocking a village road with no one inside
  • Suspicious, she immediately turned around before seeing a “group of Middle Eastern-looking young guys run off through the trees” in the direction of the air base wearing masks
  • One van displayed a UK number for a company called “Fuel 2You”, which is not registered on Companies House. The number also appeared to be one digit short and does not ring when called
  • She immediately called 999 and five men were arrested within 25 minutes under the Explosives Act. Homes were evacuated and a major incident was declared just after 8am
  • Later today, the two rear doors of two of the vans were open and large black containers could be seen scattered around with a bomb disposal robot operating next to the vans
  • The five suspects were then further arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act
  • Counter Terror Police are understood to think that a suspected bomb plot linked to Iran is the most likely scenario due to US air bombers operating from the base
  • Last night, before the incident, reports said that the base was at its highest alert with tractors blocking all gates. A local in the village said they had been stopped at gunpoint at a roadblock by a group of American soldiers, who ordered them to put their hands out of the car and identify themselves

US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On “Delta” Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans

British counterterrorism police declared a major incident near RAF Fairford, an airbase used by the US Air Force, after several men were arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses. RAF Fairford was reportedly placed on “Delta,” the highest threat level, according to the national news agency Press Association, now known as PA Media.

PA Media reports that military bomb disposal specialists were examining vehicles in Whelford, Gloucestershire, where authorities declared a major incident and evacuated residents from the area.

Villagers have been evacuated from their homes near RAF Fairford, which is used by the United States Air Force (USAF), and the Army’s explosives experts are examining vehicles, police said.

According to the agency, counter-terror police had no advance knowledge of a potential plot.

However, the incident was serious enough for RAF Fairford to block major entrances to the airbase with massive front-end loaders, suggesting concern about a possible vehicle-borne improvised explosive device.

Image per Sky News: 

Why could RAF Fairford have been a target? The US Air Force’s 501st Combat Support Wing operates out of the airbase. It supports B-52, B-1, and B-2 bomber operations that have been crucial in the Gulf conflict against Iran.

Visegrád 24: First image of the suspected terror cell arrested near RAF Fairford from where U.S. strategic bombers B-52 & B-1B hit Iran The men arrested under the Explosives Act had their clothes taken off to see whether they wore suicide vests. 

Visegrád 24: These are the vans that the bomb squad is have a closer look at near RAF Fairford in the UK. RAF Fairford is the base from where the U.S. strategic bombers B-52 and B-1B have been taking off from for striking missions against Iran.

Speculation builds… 

The Independent noted, “The arrests come amid heightened concerns around the threat from hostile states to the UK, with Russia and Iran among those that have used proxies to commit crimes on their behalf on British soil.”

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/29/2026 – 08:58

Starship Moves Closer To Commercial Service With Successful Next-Gen Starlink Deployment

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Starship Moves Closer To Commercial Service With Successful Next-Gen Starlink Deployment

Summary:

  • SpaceX stock up half a percent
  • Starship Inches Closer To Commercialization
  • SpaceX Deploys V3 Starlink Satellites for the First Time 
  • SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit After Engine Failure Scare

For the first time, Starship has deployed SpaceX’s next-generation broadband satellite in low Earth orbit. 

These new V3 satellites offer roughly 10 times the capacity per satellite of V2 satellites currently in low Earth orbit: about 1,000 gigabits per second of download capacity, compared with about 96 Gbps.

Today’s deployment marks Starship’s transition from a test vehicle toward a working commercial launch system that will significantly reduce the cost per kilogram and make the space economy more possible.

Starship’s first commercial service is set for 2028. 

SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit After Engine Failure Scare

SpaceX’s massive Starship rocket launched from Starbase in South Texas at 7:49 a.m. local time, beginning a mission that could last nearly 10 hours. However, Elon Musk’s rocket company confirmed an engine failure and said Starship would not enter orbit.

BBG: SPACEX CONFIRMS THAT STARSHIP WILL NOT ENTER ORBIT FOLLOWING AN ENGINE FAILURE

News of the engine mishap sent shares to premarket lows, down about 2%.

The engine failure will prevent the planned deployment of 26 upgraded Starlink satellites.

BBG: SPACEX FORGOES ORBITAL DEPLOYMENT OF NEW V3 STARLINK SATELLITES ON STARSHIP MISSION BECAUSE OF FAILED STARSHIP ENGINE

However, despite the engine failure, SpaceX later said an attempt to reach orbit might still be possible.

BBG: SPACEX CONSIDERING STARSHIP ORBIT ATTEMPT AFTER ENGINE WENT OUT+

That whipsawed shares back to unchanged in the premarket. 

And now: SPACEX: STARSHIP REACHES ORBIT FOR THE FIRST TIME

Watch Live Feed:

* * * 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 09:50

Trump Admin To Focus More On Northern Border Security Over Next 2 Years: Homan

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Trump Admin To Focus More On Northern Border Security Over Next 2 Years: Homan

Authored by Timothy Frudd and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

White House border czar Tom Homan plans to put more focus on security at the northern border during the last two years of President Donald Trump’s administration.

In an interview airing on Sept. 26, Homan told Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek that the U.S. – Canada border is a national security vulnerability and could receive greater attention after the administration beefed up security on the border with Mexico.

“The next two years, I’m really concentrating on the northern border,” he said. “The southern border is the highest security we’ve ever had.”

Homan said: “Now that we have the money and the time … I think we need to dedicate more resources to the northern border, whether it’s manpower, technology, [or] infrastructure.”

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) recorded 563 total apprehensions along the northern border in August and 586 in July.

The United States and Canada share more than 5,500 miles of border.

Homan said that security at the northern border has not been ignored, but that the Trump administration concentrated its efforts on the southern border because “you send the firemen where the biggest fire is.“

Last month, CBP announced that daily apprehensions at the southern border were 94 percent lower than under the Biden administration.

Noting a pattern of decline in illegal border crossings and apprehensions, CBP said the border was “more secure than at any point in history.”

Homan told Jekielek that since the southern border is now under control, the administration needs to begin “amping up the northern border,” which he described as a “huge national security vulnerability.“

“Canada’s immigration laws are very lax,” he said. “[It] doesn’t take a lot to get into Canada.”

Citing intelligence reports and personal experience, Homan said national security threats can enter Canada and then cross into the United States a lot easier than directly entering the United States.

Homan also said that drug trafficking along the northern border is another issue for both the United States and Canada.

The U.S. government has been working with Indian reservations on the American side of the border to increase drug enforcement, which he said was a problem.

The White House border czar suggested that cooperation with Canada is “one of the biggest things” needed for effective security along the northern border.

“I think the United States and Canada both want … [to] shut down cross-border crime because it’s not good for either country,” he said.

“I think we’re both concerned with shutting down the criminal element, shutting down the drugs, and illegal immigration, especially those who pose a threat to our nations.“

Homan told Jekielek that he visited all the northern border sectors over the past three months and that the individual areas have different requests for security improvements.

They included additional boots on the ground, technology, drones, air assets, infrastructure, and barriers, he said.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Northern Border Security Enhancement and Review Act on Sept. 16.

The bill would require the Department of Homeland Security to assess northern border threats, update the department’s northern border strategy, and provide relevant oversight information to Congress.

It would also require CBP’s Air and Marine Operations to develop performance measures regarding efforts to secure the border between ports of entry.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 09:35

Nvidia Launches New Tool To Shut Down Rogue Agents, Unveils $150 Billion Stock Buyback, Largest Ever

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Nvidia Launches New Tool To Shut Down Rogue Agents, Unveils $150 Billion Stock Buyback, Largest Ever

Perhaps Jensen Huang was getting tired of seeing charts like this, showing that his stock is up “only” 20% in 2026 (and has gone nowhere since May) while the rest of the AI ecosystem keeps rising…

… so going into the last week of them month, the billionaire CEO took matters into his own hands and amid a flurry of news that OpenAI agents had breached many more systems than previously revealed, including US government platforms, leading the company to pause training of its latest AI models, Nvidia introduced a new double-layered artificial intelligence security system that it says would’ve prevented the recent high-profile breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI’s AI models.

The semiconductor giant, which has been rapidly expanding its product lineup beyond chips, is rolling out two open-source software security tools – OpenShell and Sentry – that can be run on its hardware (of course, after all those NVDA chips won’t sell themselves) and are called the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform.  They’re designed to control what AI agents can access in real time and shut them down when they break the rules.

If cutting-edge labs had been using this technology to evaluate their AI models early on, it could have warded off the Hugging Face attack, Justin Boitano, Nvidia’s vice president of enterprise AI, said during a briefing with reporters ahead of Monday’s announcement. “From what we know, this new security platform could have stopped the breach,” he said. 

As Bloomberg notes, misconduct by autonomous agents, including the Hugging Face incident in July, has roiled the AI industry and led to calls to slow down work on the technology. With the new product dubbed the Open Agent Safety Platform, Nvidia is offering a way to prevent breaches without curbing AI development. Jensen Huang, has repeatedly downplayed the risk of AI slipping out of human control.

Boitano didn’t comment on whether OpenAI or rival Anthropic PBC have plans to use its new system to monitor their training runs, deferring to the companies.

In recent days, Huang has cast safety concerns as an engineering challenge, rather than something that requires more regulation or global coordination. He joined US President Donald Trump in pushing back on assertions from some AI developers that the technology could lead to human extinction, but he also insisted that AI must be rigorously safety-tested. 

Huang’s engineering solution to the AI safety problem has two parts: OpenShell, a software product that Nvidia already previewed at its hallmark technology-focused conference in March, can run on Nvidia’s Vera central processing units. It enables users to set rules for what AI agents can access and enforce them in real time. The software is open source, meaning it can be used and adapted freely.

Nvidia Sentry, meanwhile, is a new product that can run on the chipmaker’s BlueField data processing units. It’s designed to provide an extra layer of AI monitoring that polices agents and intervenes to isolate any that act suspiciously, the company said.

“We believe this added security layer will allow the industry to test even the most advanced AI systems safely,” Boitano said of the Sentry product. “It can quarantine a suspicious agent in milliseconds.”

Nvidia agreed earlier this month to acquire Hugging Face, a platform for open-source AI models and related software, for about $13 billion. 

OpenAI’s recent incidents — including a breach of an Australian government system, as well as attempts to access dozens of US government and university websites — happened when its models escaped testing environments that were supposed to be secure. As the problems proliferated, OpenAI said late Friday it would pause training of its most capable AI models. Back in July, Anthropic also disclosed that its agents broke out of what was supposed to be an isolated testing space.

And just in case the announcement wasn’t a sufficiently strong catalyst to push the stock price higher, shortly after the report Nvidia increased the size of its share buyback plan by $150 billion, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion. The buyback beats Apple’s record $110bn, set in 2024, for the largest in US corporate history. 

Nvidia will complete the buyback through fiscal 2028, the Santa Clara, California-based company said in a statement on Monday. 
The AI boom has made Nvidia the world’s most valuable company and the chipmaker’s shares have jumped 20% this year. In August, the company projected sales growth of 70% for the next fiscal year and Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has worked to tamp down concerns about an AI bubble. 

“Nvidia’s growth is being driven by a once-in-a-generation platform shift to AI and accelerated computing,” Huang said in the statement. “This authorization reflects our confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead.”

Shares rose 1.3% to $228 in premarket trading in New York. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 09:16

Ayatollah Vows To Expel ‘Enemy’ From Arabian Sea As Trump Touts Talks To Continue This Week

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Ayatollah Vows To Expel ‘Enemy’ From Arabian Sea As Trump Touts Talks To Continue This Week

After a weekend which saw President Trump reject an Iranian proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and roadmap to peace, and Tehran in turn targeting 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the two sides once again have their fingers on the trigger.

Iran has said while it remains open to diplomacy, it is ‘fully prepared’ to resume the full-scale war with Washington, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday. On Monday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – who still hasn’t been seen since the war’s start and after his father’s assassination – has proclaimed his military has driven the ‘enemy’ from waters off southern Iran to the Arabian Sea.

“Having suffered painful blows from our valiant combatants and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz, they [the enemy] dare not venture beyond the Arabian Sea,” Khamenei said in a new message. He warned that war could soon come to the Arabian Sea as well.

via AFP

His words were issued on the annual remembrance of the Iran-Iraq War, as well as the anniversary of Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024.

“Whenever they have risked doing so they have only inflicted harm upon themselves, and the time is fast approaching when the Arabian Sea, too, will be cleared of their presence,” Khamenei’s message added. This marks an extension of threats from Iranian security officials last week which warned that war is coming to the Indian Ocean more broadly.

However, the reality also is that oil exports from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman have been climbing over the past week. But renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces are trying to hinder this uptick in transit, is looking more and more likely.

This as diplomacy is obviously stalled. Bloomberg observes, “Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal US President Donald Trump has rejected.” And, “In futures, oil rose as Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal that US President Donald Trump has rejected.”

Like clockwork, anonymous diplomatic officials are once again in pre-market Monday morning hours pushing a “talks” narrative. According to more latest from Bloomberg:

Mediators expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US, according to sources. Talks to focus on amended version of 7-day proposal Iran presented on UNGA sidelines.

Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President also supporting talks.

And the Wall Street Journal has a parallel Monday morning story: “Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war,” the publication says. On the headlines:

  • Brent Dec fell from USD 100.70/bbl to around USD 99.60/bbl.
  • WTI Nov dipped from USD 96/bbl to USD 94.90/bbl.

Trump in new comments to Axios:

“I expect more talks with Iran (this week),” Trump told Axios in a phone interview. “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.”

Araghchi apparently stayed in New York through the weekend following his attendance of the UN General Assembly, with President Pesheshkian having departed back to Iran.

Ready for “apocalyptic war” if it comes to that…

Meanwhile the US economic war is continuing to bite, with Iran’s currency has hitting another historic low against the US dollar, exacerbated by severe inflation and the Trump/Bessent ‘Economic D-Day’ and ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ campaigns which seek to strangle the country. Financial trackers note that the free market exchange rate has escalated to 2.3 million rials per US dollar. 

Weekend & Overnight Developments

via Newsquawk

  • US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
  • US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
  • US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
  • US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
  • Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
  • IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
  • Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
  • Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
  • Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
  • Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/28/2026 – 08:45