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The Frozen Market For Homes

The Frozen Market For Homes

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Mortgage rates on a 30-year loan just hit 7 percent, intensifying problems on the demand side. Mortgages plus insurance—which turns a half-million dollar house into a $1.2 million house plus property taxes—became unaffordable for another class of buyers while already out of reach for most people.

On the supply side, millions of existing homeowners are locked into COVID-era mortgages of 3 percent or lower, which makes them negative in real terms. That’s a great deal unless you sell and then have to buy again. It would make no sense to sell in any case, but you are still stuck paying ever higher property taxes on ever higher valuations.

This has produced a problem that is evident in January’s new home sales numbers, which fell 18 percent, the largest drop in 13 years and a level comparable to the bust following the 2008 financial crisis that began with housing. What’s happening in real time is suggested by the anecdotes. People are neither selling nor buying—unless of course you have a full load of cash on hand.

The picture this creates is one of illusory wealth, on one hand, and frustrated renters on the other. The existing owners are paying ever higher property taxes on rising home valuations but their own joy comes from looking at their paper wealth rise on Zillow. It’s an unrealized gain, and realizing it is contingent on willing and lucrative buyers.

Otherwise, they are stuck. Closing a sale at the market price is wonderful but parlaying that into new living conditions would certainly land you in a smaller home or a different market entirely, requiring a geographic relocation. A fixer upper is not really viable either when it seems nearly impossible to find affordable and competent service providers these days plus the high cost of all resources.

This is again more collateral damage from lockdowns and zero interest rates. The people who used stimulus payments for home purchases thought they were getting a great deal. In some ways they were, but this is mitigated by rising property taxes and the feeling of being stuck in a homeowner situation from which there is no financially rational escape.

The buying peak of 2020 is matched by the selling trough of 2026 almost as mirror images.

The housing market is distinct for being spottily illiquid. This doesn’t happen in the market for eggs, jeans, or beef. A frozen market is about plentiful supply but few willing sellers or buyers. Posted prices become illusory because they are not manifested in actual trade. They are only estimates of trades, like a high-priced product on eBay that no one buys.

People are worried about a repeat of 2008 with a housing crash. That’s not out of the question, but the circumstances are different. If real buyers are scarce, and sellers are locked into their favorable contracts, the downward pressure on prices is thereby reduced. Rents are falling today but home prices, not so much. A locked market is different from a crashing one.

It’s hard to see the way out of this one absent a huge increase in supply and a drop in mortgage rates, neither of which seems likely any time soon. Indeed, Trump has reversed his campaign pledge of more housing stocks on grounds that he doesn’t want to reduce property values for existing homeowners, most of whom are the Boomer generation.

This topic is particularly sensitive in American culture. This is because the United States was the first country really to achieve the ideal of widespread and affordable homeownership for the middle class. This began after World War II with thanks in part to tax deductions for mortgage interest and other forms of subsidies. The goal was to construct the American dream. It worked.

The last five years have offered a fundamental challenge to that ideal, as young people are in no position to afford a house. The median age of first-time home buyers from 1950 to the 1990s was 24–28 years old. After 2008, that began to creep up. Today, the age of new home buyers is 40 years and older. Those numbers represent the shattering of an important part of the American dream.

The hope of the Trump administration was to find ways to revive the old dream through lower mortgage rates and other financial benefits to first-time buyers. But in fact, the problem is too entrenched and too deep to be fixed with small policy changes. Plus, since the war on Iran, bond markets have been profoundly disturbed. The yield curve is steepening in ways that have rattled market observers.

That is a conspicuous gap between a promised policy and actual results. It further illustrates just how little control government has over a price spread that is ruled by market forces rather than agency officials or elected leaders. Nor would buyer subsidies work: those are quickly factored into market demand and reflected in higher prices.

Average down payments have shifted upwards too. While the percentage down payment has often been lower today than it was in the 1960s, the real dollar amount has increased as much as four times. This is because homes are much more expensive in inflation-adjusted terms. Saving for a down payment now takes significantly longer relative to income for many households than it did in 1960.

Young people, even those fortunate enough to find high-paying jobs, are priced out of the market for as long as 15 years of their working lives. If they are fortunate to have access to family money, a cash purchase remains the best option by far, even with the deduction for rising interest rates.

This is a significant feature of the demoralization and anger that voters under the age of 35 feel today, along with growing job insecurity, rising medical insurance costs (sometimes even higher than rents), and persistent and rising inflation. I would strongly recommend that all talk of a Golden Age be put on hold until these serious problems begin to resolve themselves. That won’t be anytime soon.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 20:55

Fetterman Blasts Democrats After Illegal Immigrant Murders College Freshman

Fetterman Blasts Democrats After Illegal Immigrant Murders College Freshman

Earlier this week, Jose Medina-Medina, an illegal immigrant whom the Biden administration caught and released at the border, murdered Loyola University freshman Sheridan Gorman. Medina-Medina had previously been arrested at least twice in Chicago, yet was released by local authorities, thanks to their sanctuary policies. According to reports, he approached her, raised a gun, and opened fire as she tried to flee. She was pronounced dead at the scene.

The Democratic Party’s response has been nothing short of horrific. 

Chicago Alderwoman Maria Hadden, a Democrat, essentially blamed Gorman for her own murder.

“From what police know, from — from speaking to the students who were with her, it seems she [Sheridan Gorman] might have …they were just out, you know, people go out to the beach all the time, right?” She said in a now-viral video.

“And they go out on the pier, they walk around so that the kids were out doing normal, normal things people do in the neighborhood, and it sounds like this might have been a wrong place, wrong time, running into a person who had a gun. They might have startled this person at the end of the pier unintentionally. But that’s all we know.”

Gov. JB Pritzker attacked the Trump administration for politicizing Gorman’s death.

“The Trump Administration needs to stop politicizing heinous tragedies and instead focus on real solutions, like reinstating federal funds to prevent violence that support our public safety efforts,” he said in a statement.

Fox News reported Tuesday that nearly a dozen Illinois Democrats are refusing to defend their votes against the Laken Riley Act in the wake of Gorman’s murder.

Illinois’ delegation split 11–5 against the Laken Riley Act. All three Republicans, plus Democrats Nikki Budzinski and Eric Sorenson, backed the bill, while 11 Democrats opposed it. Rep. Brad Schneider missed the vote due to a medical emergency but said he would have voted no, insisting that the Laken Riley Act was exploiting her death to “score cheap political points.”

The Trump administration believes Gorman’s death was completely preventable.

“Sheridan Gorman — just like Laken Riley and countless other American victims — would still be with us today and with their families if it were not for sanctuary politicians’ refusal to cooperate with ICE,” DHS Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis told Fox News Digital.

The reaction from Democrats to Gorman’s death has been so despicable that Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) unloaded on his own party over it.

“Why can’t we just talk about that life lost?” Fetterman told Fox News’s Bill Hemmer. “Why can’t we just acknowledge that this is serious, serious failure?”

Fetterman also invoked the Laken Riley Act, the legislation requiring the detention and deportation of illegal immigrants who commit crimes. Fetterman was one of only a handful of Democrats to vote for it — a fact he’s clearly not going to let his colleagues forget.

“I think only seven or eight Democrats even voted for [the] Laken Riley [Act],” he said. “Why can’t you just agree that if you’re breaking the law and you’re already here illegally, deport them? I just don’t understand.”

He continued, “Tragedies like what happened to that young woman, they are gonna continue to happen,” he said. “That’s beyond common sense.”

Hemmer pressed him on why Democrats can’t seem to get there, and Fetterman gave an honest, if uncomfortable, answer.

“I guess they’re afraid of the base,” he replied.

Fetterman acknowledged that his positions put him in a tough spot inside his own party. He said he’s been “constantly punished” for breaking ranks — on the government shutdown vote, on his views about Iran, and now this. He doesn’t seem particularly bothered. “I’d rather be on the moral clarity or on the right side of history, or the correct kinds of principles,” he said. “That puts me at odds with parts of my party.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 20:30

“I’m Done”: Robert Malone Exits CDC Vaccine Advisory Role

“I’m Done”: Robert Malone Exits CDC Vaccine Advisory Role

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Dr. Robert Malone said on March 25 that he will no longer advise health officials on vaccines.

“I’m done,” Malone told The Epoch Times.

Malone was vice chair of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on immunizations.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. selected Malone and other new ACIP members in 2025, after removing the previous slate.

A federal judge recently ruled that Kennedy did not follow proper procedure in appointing the members and stayed the appointments. The judge also blocked changes to the CDC vaccine schedule, some of which were prompted by votes from the remade ACIP.

Malone, a former EpochTV host and an adjunct professor at Louisiana State University, has panned the decision, noting that the judge deemed him unfit even though he has decades of experience in the vaccine field.

Malone said Wednesday that he had already been trying to figure out how to leave ACIP “in some sort of a graceful, professional way for months now,” in part because of criticism from health care groups over matters such as the ACIP vote to recommend the CDC narrow guidance for messenger ribonucleic acid and other vaccines against COVID-19.

He is also focusing on working with the State Department on biological warfare agreements.

Malone said that members, who do not receive compensation, have not been treated well by the Trump administration, pointing to how Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) spokesman Andrew Nixon responded after Malone publicized how officials allegedly told members they would be reconstituting ACIP rather than appeal the judge’s ruling.

“I’m tired of thousands of hours of free labor for just chronic disrespect for all of us,” Malone said.

The Epoch Times has requested a comment from HHS, the CDC’s parent agency, which Kennedy heads.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Washington on Jan. 29, 2026. Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images

Nixon pointed to how HHS adviser and former ACIP Chairman Martin Kulldorff told Roll Call, which first reported Malone’s departure, that he found Nixon “professional and honest in all his work supporting ACIP.”

The administration has still not appealed the ruling. Nixon told The Epoch Times in a March 20 email, “Unless officially announced by us, any assertions about what we are doing next is baseless speculation.”

Malone said that Kennedy called him on March 25 to provide an update.

“They’re still making decisions about what they’re going to do, trying to come up with a strategy that they can win on,” Malone said.

“And he gave me an update where that sat, but it would be inappropriate for me to share it.”

Dr. Wafik El-Deiry, director of the Legorretta Cancer Center at Brown University, who worked on an ACIP workgroup on COVID-19 vaccines with Malone, wrote in a post on X that he was sad to learn Malone was departing ACIP.

El-Deiry said in a follow-up post on X that his experience of working with Malone was “seeing only extremely knowledgeable, well-informed, always prepared, spontaneous and up to date, sharp, respectful and appropriately critical input as one would expect on a national advisory panel.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 19:15

Hot Pot, Hot Mess: Service Robot Goes Berserk In San Jose Dining Room, Must Be Tackled By Staff

Hot Pot, Hot Mess: Service Robot Goes Berserk In San Jose Dining Room, Must Be Tackled By Staff

On Tuesday, diners at a Haidilao hot-pot restaurant in San Jose saw an unexpected disruption when a service robot, apparently part of an in-house performance, malfunctioned and began moving erratically. Instead of entertaining guests, it knocked dishes to the floor and sent chopsticks flying as employees rushed to contain it. Video from the scene shows staff dodging the machine before eventually tackling it; no injuries are apparent, Hoodline wrote.

A short clip shared online captures the robot, dressed in an orange apron, flailing through the dining area and upsetting tableware. At one point, a worker appears to grab it near the neck while looking at a phone, seemingly trying to access controls as the situation unfolds.

The episode comes amid Haidilao’s broader push into automation. The company has spent years integrating technology into its restaurants, including delivery robots and highly automated kitchens. It also introduced a pilot “smart” restaurant in Beijing in 2018 that relied on robotic arms and guided vehicles.

After the footage spread, many online commenters focused on how the robot was shut down. Some pointed out that no obvious emergency stop button was visible and questioned whether clearer manual override systems should be required in restaurants using such machines.

Reports indicate the robot appeared as part of a promotional tie-in for Disney’s “Zootopia 2.” The incident has renewed concerns about how quickly staff can intervene and safely regain control when robotic systems malfunction in crowded public spaces.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 18:50

More Than 450 TSA Agents Have Quit During DHS Shutdown

More Than 450 TSA Agents Have Quit During DHS Shutdown

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 450 Transportation Security Administration agents have quit since the start of the partial Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown.

Travelers wait in long security lines at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, on March 23, 2026. Ronaldo Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

The partial shutdown has been ongoing since March 15, when funding for the agency lapsed without additional funding in place. 

Lauren Bis, acting assistant secretary for Public Affairs at DHS, told the Epoch Times in an emailed statement that as of day 38 of the partial shutdown, American travelers are facing hours-long waits at airports across the country.

More than 450 TSA officers quit and thousands have called out sick from work because they are not able to afford gas, childcare, food, or rent,” Bis said. 

“President [Donald] Trump is taking action to deploy hundreds of ICE officers, who are currently funded by Congress, to airports being adversely impacted. This will help bolster TSA efforts to keep our skies safe and minimize air travel disruptions.”

The department stated that callout rates for TSA agents remained elevated, reaching almost 11 percent on March 23, representing 3,200 officers absent from duty. The recorded high callout rate for the shutdown was nearly 12 percent the day before.

Major airports saw higher than average absences among agents, including 33.7 percent at John F. Kennedy International Airport, 30.4 percent at Baltimore/Washington International Airport, and 27.5 percent at Pittsburgh International Airport

LaGuardia Airport’s callout rate was 20.3 percent, 37.4 percent at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, 34.9 percent at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport, and 40.3 percent at William P. Hobby Airport in Houston.

Federal immigration agents were deployed to 14 U.S. airports starting on March 23.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents went to the international airport in Atlanta, airports in New York City, and a dozen others to help TSA personnel as long lines formed due to a lack of agents. 

As part of the deployment, ICE agents have been sent to Chicago-O’Hare International Airport, Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport, John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York), LaGuardia Airport (New York), Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport (San Juan, Puerto Rico), Newark Liberty International Airport, Philadelphia International Airport, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, Pittsburgh International Airport, Southwest Florida International Airport (Fort Myers, Florida), and Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Senate Republicans are working on a plan to fully fund DHS, but that would exclude ICE enforcement and removal activities. The lawmakers say they would then look to fund the remainder of ICE through the reconciliation budget, which could be accomplished through a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes needed for the current funding plan.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) is cautiously optimistic but said the proposal needs to be in writing.

I think the deal is possible, but we’re down to that point where, like lots of people are talking, but you’ve got to reduce it to writing, and you’ve got to actually trade paper,” he told reporters.

Coons said he won’t support a bill that doesn’t include reforms to ICE’s detention and deportation operations.

“Conversations are ongoing, but this deal seems to be acceptable,” a White House official told The Epoch Times on March 24.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said, “All I can say is that the discussions have been very positive and productive, and hopefully headed in the right direction.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) offered a similar sentiment, telling reporters, “Both sides are working in a serious way.”

Jackson Richman and Nathan Worcester contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 18:25

Baltimore Democrats Triggered After Grok Generates Bikini Elon Musk, Sue xAI Over Sexual Deepfakes

Baltimore Democrats Triggered After Grok Generates Bikini Elon Musk, Sue xAI Over Sexual Deepfakes

The left-wing one-party rule in Baltimore City can barely govern its own imploding metro area. Parts of downtown are ghost towns; the resident exodus has been severe; taxes are through the roof; industry has left; and decades of progressive policies have helped transform large parts of the metro area into crime-ridden no-go zones. Yet somehow, city officials still found the time to weaponize local agencies and go after Elon Musk. 

Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the City Council of Baltimore, represented by the Baltimore City Law Department and DiCello Levitt, filed a lawsuit in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City against Elon Musk’s xAI, claiming Grok users were able to create non-consensual sexual deepfakes, including images involving minors, and that the defendants violated Baltimore’s Consumer Protection Ordinance.

The core claim in the lawsuit is that Grok was marketed as a general-purpose AI chatbot with supposed safeguards, but in reality, it allegedly allowed users to “undress,” sexualize, and manipulate photos of real people, including children, with minimal prompting and without meaningful guardrails or age verification.

“Beginning in late 2025, x.AI expanded Grok’s image-generation and image-editing features, which ‘edit’ existing photographs, including images of private individuals and children, into photorealistic, sexually explicit, or otherwise degrading content. These features allow Grok, with minimal prompting, to ‘undress,’ sexualize, or otherwise manipulate images uploaded by or depicting third parties,” the lawsuit reads.

The lawsuit claims xAI knew the chatbot could be abused on a large scale. It cites allegations that millions of sexualized images were generated in a short period, including thousands that appeared to depict children, and argues users in the metro area were exposed either to the content itself or to the risk that their own images could be turned into deepfakes. 

“These deepfakes, especially those depicting minors, have traumatic, lifelong consequences for victims, who are left with no way to prevent the spread of disturbing, sexualized images created of them without their consent,” Mayor Scott wrote in a statement.

The only image in the lawsuit: 

DiCello Levitt Founding Partner Adam Levitt stated, “The City is setting a powerful example for municipalities nationwide in confronting a novel and rapidly advancing technology, and an emerging area of law, where accountability has not yet caught up with innovation.”

Baltimore is seeking civil penalties, injunctive relief, restitution, disgorgement, and a jury trial.

What’s odd is that Baltimore City officials weirdly found the time to hyperfocus on all things Elon Musk while ignoring all other chatbot companies. This lawsuit is merely a copy of how anti-free-speech Europeans went after Grok over nonconsensual deepfake images while failing to address other chatbots.

We wonder why Baltimore was chosen to target Musk. Let’s not forget this is political warfare from the high-ups of the Democratic Party.

Mayor Scott appears to have Soros connections. 

The Govenor of Maryland with Alex Soros … 

Perhaps the lawsuit from Baltimore is merely a shakedown of the world’s richest man. These local Democrats have badly mismanaged the city’s finances due to overspending and deficit woes. This mismanagement and failed progressive policies have sparked an exodus of residents, and since 2000, the metro area’s population has declined by 1% per year, according to the city’s own data.

This is political warfare. Shouldn’t Baltimore focus on rebuilding the Key Bridge or stopping the mass hemorrhaging of residents, or perhaps the power bill crisis?

*  *  * Grab a ZeroHedge Multitool. Solid in the hand.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 18:00

BLM Activist Ordered To Pay Back $224,000 In COVID Relief Funds, Donations

BLM Activist Ordered To Pay Back $224,000 In COVID Relief Funds, Donations

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

A Black Lives Matter activist in Boston was ordered on March 23 to pay back more than $224,000 in pandemic relief funds and donations to her nonprofit.

Monica Cannon-Grant, 44, pleaded guilty last fall to multiple fraud charges and filing false tax returns. She was sentenced to serve six months of home confinement, 100 hours of community service, and four years of probation.

Federal District Court Judge Angel Kelly in Boston set the monetary judgment equal to the amount of money Cannon-Grant admitted taking from nonprofit Violence in Boston, which Cannon-Grant founded and where she formerly served as CEO.

In March 2023, a grand jury handed down a 27-count indictment against Cannon-Grant and her husband Clark Grant, charging them with fraud in connection to Violence in Boston, which they founded in 2017. Grant died in a motorcycle crash three weeks after the indictment was served while driving about 30 minutes east of Boston.

Federal prosecutors said Cannon-Grant paid herself about $25,100 in 2020 and more than $170,000 in 2021 from the nonprofit’s account, according to the charging documents.

About $181,037 of the total funds in question were donated to the organization and diverted for her personal use, $33,426 was obtained from pandemic unemployment assistance benefits, and $12,600 were from rental assistance funds, according to the judge.

In September, Cannon-Grant admitted to diverting thousands of dollars in donor money earmarked for the nonprofit for her own personal use, according to federal prosecutors.

In one instance, prosecutors say after receiving about $54,000 in pandemic relief funds from the city of Boston, Cannon-Grant withdrew about $30,000 in cash from the nonprofit’s account and made deposits of $5,200 and $1,000 into her personal checking account. She also made payments on her personal auto loan and car insurance policy.

Cannon-Grant also pleaded guilty to filing false tax returns for two years, among other tax charges.

“Monica Cannon-Grant repeatedly scammed multiple public financial programs and stole money donated by members of the public who believed their donations would aid in reducing violence and promote social awareness,” U.S. Attorney Leah Foley said in September in a statement. “She betrayed the trust of everyone who donated and the public who supported her fraudulent charity.”

Cannon-Grant’s attorneys asked the judge for a lighter sentence of two years of probation, no fine, and a special fee of $1,650. They described their client as a “loving mother, wife, and daughter who had dedicated her life to advancing social justice and serving communities in need.”

Black Lives Matter activists in Los Angeles on Dec. 30, 2020. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

“She has inspired a generation of social activists to speak out against injustice and to support those around them who need a voice and access to daily essentials like food and housing,” her attorneys wrote in a sentencing memo to the judge.

“Ms. Cannon-Grant made fundamental errors in judgment. She is deeply sorry and has now taken full responsibility for her actions.”

Her attorneys also described Cannon-Grant’s home life as traumatic and violent. She grew up in deep poverty and subsidized housing, and lived on welfare and food stamps with a violent and alcoholic father, according to court documents.

Her attorneys didn’t immediately return a request for comment.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 17:40

Iran Says “No Talks With US… Which Has Failed In War Goals” – Warns Of “Relentless” Response To Any Island Campaign

Iran Says “No Talks With US… Which Has Failed In War Goals” – Warns Of “Relentless” Response To Any Island Campaign

Summary

  • Iranian FM says there are no talks with the US, wants a permanent end to the conflict; Tehran demands a permanent end to the war and compensation for destruction. Ghalibaf warns against island campaign.
  • Central Command Says Nearly 300 US Military Troops Injured in Iran War

  • 3,000 elite Army Airborne soldiers & Marines still en route after Trump said Monday says Iran has been destroyed “militarily”. 

  • Iran is tightening control of Hormuz, demanding detailed ship data and in some cases large fees for passage.

  • Iran continues to say it is ready for long war, monitors US troop movements: Parliament Speaker says “Do not test our resolve to defend our land.”

*  *  *

Tehran Issues Ominous Warning Against Potential Island Campaign

Iran has threatened to attack any country which assists in future possible US assault on strategic islands which lie off Iran, amid reports that President Trump could order American troops to force open the Strait of Hormuz. 

The parliament speaker, who is increasingly someone being looked to as de facto running the country at this point, has warned “all the vital infrastructure of that regional country [which assists] will, without restriction, become the target of relentless attacks. The WSJ has a quite interesting and unexpected bit of fresh reporting concerning Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf:

The U.S. and Israel have temporarily removed two senior Iranian officials from their list of officials to eliminate as they explore possible peace talks, U.S. officials said. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have been removed from the target list for up to four or five days as President Trump opens the door to high-level negotiations for ending the war, the officials said. Mediators from Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt are pushing for U.S. and Iranian negotiators to meet in the next day to discuss pausing the war for peace talks, but officials said the odds of success are low as there are major gaps between U.S. and Iranian demands.

And more:

Iran FM: No Talks Happening with US, Which has ‘Failed’ in Goals

Amid constant speculation of which side’s narrative on ‘talks’ is more accurate, Iran’s Foreign Ministry sought to make clear “there are no talks with the US.” FM Abbas Araghchi declared that the US and Israel have “failed” in their “war goals including quick victory and change of regime. He further stated Tehran is seeking a permanent end to the war (so on its terms), and so clearly the earlier ’15 points’ won’t cut it from Iran’s perspective.

This ‘clarification’ has moved oil sharply up:

According to more from the breaking statement:

  • Iranian Foreign Minister says there are no talks with the US; Iran is not seeking war, wants a permanent end to the conflict; Tehran demands a permanent end to the war and compensation for destruction
  • US is sending messages through different mediators.
  • Exchange of messages via Mediators “does not mean negotiation with the US”.
  • Iran’s foreign minister says US has failed in its war goals including quick victory and change of regime; message to the neighboring countries, distance yourself from the US; No talks with the US
  • Tehran showed the world that no country can threaten its security.

WSJ: Talks are Longshot But ‘Not Dead’

The US offered its reported 15 points, while Iran has countered with five, but has not issued them directly to Washington. WSJ says that Iran’s private stance may be more conciliatory and up for flexibility: “Iran is being less strident in private discussions to end the war than it is in public, Arab mediators and other people familiar with the matter said, giving them hope the diplomatic effort they are trying to spark isn’t dead on arrival,” it writes.

*  *  * Sleep well

“The odds of success remain low, with Iran and the U.S. staking out maximalist demands that are unacceptable to the other side, the mediators said,” continues WSJ. “But while Iranian state media said Tehran has rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war, it is still listening as mediators try to work out compromise language that would at least open the door for the two sides to meet in the next couple of days, the mediators said.” Stocks briefly responded positively to the headline.

More Threats to Impose Steep Economic Costs on West

More threats concerning Red Sea shipping: An Iranian military source has warned via Tasnim that “If the enemy wants to carry out an operation in the territory of the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our territory or through maritime movements to cause damage to Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman – we will open additional fronts for it as a surprise, so that its operation not only will not benefit it but will also cause it double expenses.”

The source emphasized, “The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the world’s most strategic straits, and Iran possesses both the will and the ability to generate a credible threat against it. Therefore, if the Americans want to think about a foolish solution to the Strait of Hormuz, they should beware of not adding trouble and embarrassments to themselves in another strait.”

Adding a final warning, the source declared, “Iran is fully prepared to escalate the situation. If the enemy has doubts and lacks the sense to learn from its experiences, it can try us again like in the case of the Abdullah and more.”

Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant Attacked Again Tuesday Night, Reports Confirm

Another highly dangerous escalation as Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant has once again come under attack, Iran’s state media has said.

Citing the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, PressTV now confirms a projectile struck the facility Tuesday evening (local), denouncing it as an act of ‘terrorism’ against the Islamic Republic’s civilian infrastructure. 

A prior attack on the plant occurred on March 5, raising significant concerns over issues like potential nuclear and radiation. Iran has reportedly been targeting Dimona in southern Israel.

Iran Issues Its 5 Conditions for Ending the War

Iran lays out five specific conditions under which Iran would agree to end the war, via PressTV. These include:

1. A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy.

2. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic.

3. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations.

4. The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region

5. International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

State media says that upon reviewing the 15 points from the US delivered via the Pakistanis, they must be rejected as they are “excessive”. Other Iranian officials have called it a “list of impossible wishes”. CNN is meanwhile reporting Wednesday that Trump admin officials are working to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to seek out an offramp to the war, according to senior officials, but the timing remains fluid. Which side is actually in the driver’s seat here?

Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Draft Deal: “Illogical”

Confusion reigns over diplomacy as Pakistan reportedly relays Washington’s ceasefire terms to Iran. “A document given to Pakistan by the Trump administration has been presented to the Iranians,” according to Al Jazeera. An alleged early draft can be viewed here.

Iran’s Fars citing informed source on ceasefire Wednesday: Iran Does Not Accept Ceasefire, Says US Talks Illogical: Fars. The statement says that talks are not viable in current conditions. Oil jumps on the headline:

Tehran has consistently been denying any negotiations outright, with Iran’s ambassador insists no direct or indirect talks are happening, even as “friendly countries” conduct consultations. Iran’s military also brushed off claims by President Trump, vowing to press on with the fight, and asserting that Washington is merely negotiating with itself, trying to will something into existence which isn’t yet reality.

Bloomberg has summarized where things stand: “Iran kept up missile and drone attacks on Israel and Arab Gulf states, even after the US floated a plan to end a war that’s wreaked havoc across the Middle East and in global markets.” The below are also key points:

  • Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and “we don’t want to be fooled again,” according to a source with direct knowledge of those discussions. They worry Trump is buying time as he brings more military equipment to the Middle East. 
  • Iran has received an American 15-point plan for a ceasefire for the Iran war through intermediaries from Pakistan, officials in Islamabad said Wednesday. The proposal was sent even as Washington began to move paratroopers to the Middle East to back up a contingent of Marines already heading to the region

Iran military spokesman: “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you’re negotiating with yourselves?

Trump’s “Very Big Present” & Hormuz Leverage

Trump, meanwhile, claims Iran offered a “present…worth a tremendous amount of money,” tied to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz – but provided no details. At the same time, the US is ramping troop deployments even as it touts negotiations to end the conflict. He also claimed “we are… talking to the right people” in Iran, adding to the confusion and ambiguity.

On the ground, Iran is tightening control of Hormuz, demanding detailed ship data and in some cases fees for passage – especially for oil and gas tankers. Traffic has thinned, with non-compliant vessels turned away, raising pressure on Asian economies like India and drawing pushback from China.

Hundreds of vessels still remain paralyzed, after Iran adopted an “eye for an eye” policy to re-establish deterrence and impose sever costs on both America’s Gulf partners and the global economy. Here’s the latest on Iran’s statements and policy regarding passage:

Iran has said that “non-hostile” ships may transit the Strait of Hormuz amid a collapse of maritime traffic through the waterway that has prompted the biggest global energy crisis in decades.

In a statement on Tuesday, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said vessels may avail of “safe passage” through the waterway, “provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations.”

Tit-for-Tat Hits On Key Infrastructure

US-Israeli strikes on Iran continue, while Iranian missiles trigger alarms across Israel. Gulf states are still feeling the pain, with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain intercepted incoming threats, while Kuwait reported a fire at its main airport after a fuel tank was hit, according to Bloomberg.

Israel says it has crossed the 15,000-munitions mark in strikes on Iran since late February – highlighting the scale of the conflict, now far exceeding prior rounds of fighting. On Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the air force has carried out multiple new waves of airstrikes over Tehran, targeting what it described as Iranian regime infrastructure.

This has apparently included Iran’s only submarine development facility, as part of a broader wave of attacks on weapons production sites around Isfahan. According to the IDF, the targeted underwater R&D center is the “only site in Iran responsible for the planning and development of submarines and auxiliary systems for the Iranian navy.” It added: “The regime produced various models of unmanned vessels at the site.”

Reports say Iran again targeted Israel’s largest power plant in Hadera (Orot Rabin):

Israel is also escalating in Lebanon, bombing Beirut and pushing deeper into the south as it signals plans for a longer-term occupation zone.

Tehran ‘Closely Monitoring’ US Troop Deployments

Iranian officials are issuing stark warnings, most importantly with parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf having declared: “We are closely monitoring all US movements in the region, especially troop deploymentsDo not test our resolve to defend our land.” He added, “What the generals have broke, the soldiers can’t fix; instead, they will fall victim to Netanyahu’s delusions.” 

Official casualty latest per Pentagon: 232 U.S. service members have been injured since the start of the conflict, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson has said. Of those, 207 have returned to duty and 10 are seriously wounded. At least 13 have been killed.

As for the US troops, it’s anything but clear at this point what comes next after they finally arrive in the region. There’s talk that Trump could order a Kharg Island takeover, which itself would be ultra high-risk, given how deep inside the narrow strait that the island lies. 

Meanwhile WSJ reviews of the above mentioned Ghalibaf: “Iran’s combative Parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, is emerging as an unlikely figure in Washington’s search for a deal to halt a widening Middle East war.”

“Ghalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps air-force commander and Tehran mayor, has denied any talks with the U.S. are under way,” the report continues. “He has taunted President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and called the U.S.-Israeli air war with Iran a quagmire. He served in the Revolutionary Guard during Iran’s brutal war with Iraq in the 1980s and is known as a hard-liner’s hard-liner.”

But, the report notes, “At the same time, he is credited with helping to modernize Tehran while he was mayor, becoming famous for riding his motorcycle around town and expanding major highways and the metro system in a traffic-clogged city. In 2008, he traveled to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, portraying himself as a leader with a more business-friendly attitude than other parts of the regime.” Some analysts have said that Washington could eventually work with him. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 16:00

Two Years Later, No Key Bridge As Maryland Dems Focus On Tampons In Men’s Bathrooms

Two Years Later, No Key Bridge As Maryland Dems Focus On Tampons In Men’s Bathrooms

The two-year anniversary of the catastrophic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge at the Port of Baltimore is on Thursday.

Gubernatorial candidate Ed Hale criticized Democrats in the one-party-ruled state for their inability to properly manage the reconstruction of the Key Bridge, which is critical to the port and local economy and regional supply chains across the Mid-Atlantic region. 

Hale described the Democrats as exhibiting a “failure of leadership” and cited “unacceptable delays” in rebuilding one of Maryland’s major freight networks, which links to broader regional supply chains.

Two years. And what do the people of this community have to show for it?” Hale asked reporters earlier. 

He said, “As a Maryland developer, I know what it takes to move projects forward. These delays are unacceptable, and Maryland families and businesses are paying the price every single day.”

Two years later. Where is the bridge?

Meanwhile, Maryland Democrats in Annapolis have prioritized providing “appropriately sized tampons” for men’s bathrooms while advancing a failed left-wing agenda that has sparked a massive exodus of residents, as the state’s fiscal status deteriorates.

Baltimore City is broken. Maryland is broken. This is the direct result of one-party-ruled, left-wing politicians who masquerade as competent managers but are, in fact, incompetent DEI activists.

*  *  *

Click pic, add to cart, sleep like the dead with no grogginess

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 15:50

Trump Sets Xi Meeting Date As Clock Ticks On Iran War Offramp

Trump Sets Xi Meeting Date As Clock Ticks On Iran War Offramp

The long-anticipated Trump-Xi meeting will take place in Beijing on May 14 and 15, the White House said Wednesday, after the bilateral summit was previously pushed back due to the Iran war.

This marks a roughly six week postponement compared to when it was earlier supposed to happen. President Trump indicated in a fresh social media post that US representatives are “finalizing preparations for these Historic Visits.” He added that “I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a Monumental Event.”

Since the war kicked off on Feb.28, White House officials have offered an ever-evolving timeline for offramp and exit from the war, vowing the whole time that it’s not a “forever war” and “not like Iraq and Afghanistan” – to quote from Hegseth’s latest Pentagon briefings. 

The latest administration assessment is that it will last around five weeks, and prediction markets are adjusting for that… 

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was specifically asked Wednesday whether Trump’s China trip means Washington expects the war will be wound down by mid-May. She responded: 

“We’ve always estimated approximately four to six weeks, so you could do the math on that.”

Should the war not be over by then, Beijing is likely to see Trump as being in a weakened position for Washington-Beijing negotiations. By then the media might also start increasingly applying the word ‘quagmire’ to the whole ordeal – and Trump may start losing political support at home if there’s no wind down, even among Republicans.

At the moment things aren’t looking great, given on Wednesday Iran’s Foreign Ministry sought to make clear “there are no talks with the US.” It also declared that the US and Israel have “failed” in their “war goals including quick victory and change of regime.”

There also remains another lingering potential complication from China’s perspective:

Behind the scenes, however, there remains caution. The summit may still “not necessarily happen as planned,” with the possibility either China or the US decides to pull out of talks, according to two Chinese sources familiar with the matter, speaking under the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivities surrounding the meeting.

“If the war in Iran causes major casualties of Chinese citizens, or major damage of Chinese assets in the region, then Trump would not be able to come,” said a source, describing one of Beijing’s apparent red lines.

Beijing meanwhile earlier in the day Wednesday commented on the Pakistani offer to host US-Iran talks aimed at ending the war, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian telling reporters in Beijing: “Ceasefire and peace talks are more important tasks at hand.” 

“China supports all efforts conducive to easing tensions, de-escalating the situation and restoring dialogue,” the statement added. On Iran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, Lin said: “Maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East and keeping shipping routes safe serves the common interests of the international community.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 15:25