Goldman Now Anticipates Record Inflows For AGRI ETFs

Second- and third-order effects from a three-week – and potentially longer – disruption at the Strait of Hormuz are extending well beyond energy markets.

Even as some vessel transits resume through the narrow waterway, the shipping backlog continues to build across the Gulf region and could take weeks, if not longer, to clear.

At the same time, Qatar’s LNG export capacity may take years to fully recover after IRGC drone or missile strikes last week. Notably, natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production.

The broader implication is that a food price shock could materialize in the second half of this year as disruptions to energy, shipping, and fertilizer work their way through global supply chains.

Goldman analyst Jasmin Schneider said of this dynamic, “We anticipate that March 2026 will set a new record for agricultural ETF inflows over the next few sessions and overtake March 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the strongest grossing month.“

Schneider continued, “Consistent with the other major supply shock of the past six years, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Iran’s war has caused violent volatility spikes across oil and energy markets (chart 3).“

She also provided clients with some of the most popular agricultural ETFs to trade:

• AIGA LN: WisdomTree Agriculture. Broad agriculture basket exposure.

• AIGG LN: WisdomTree Grains. Grain basket exposure.

• WEAT LN: WisdomTree Wheat. Single-commodity wheat exposure.

Yesterday, we showed readers the movement in urea fertilizer prices relative to the FAO World Food Index. A spike is incoming.

The Bloomberg Agricultural Subindex has already sharply retraced the 2020-22 run to the 50% Fibonacci level, then spent nearly two years moving sideways.

That may suggest a reversal is forming as the energy shock morphs into a fertilizer supply crisis, which could later this year translate into lower crop yields, thus pushing food prices higher.

Goldman Warns About Incoming Food Price Spike 

The conversation grows louder by the day as disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint hits the global nitrogen fertilizer market and, in turn, is set to impact upcoming corn and grain harvests in some key growing regions.

Goldman commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven penned a note on Tuesday warning clients that chokepoint risks in the Strait of Hormuz may affect global agricultural prices.

“The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route in the global nitrogen fertilizer market, which accounts for 60% of global fertilizer use and is especially important for crops like corn and other grains,” Thomas and Struyven wrote in the note.

They warned that Hormuz disruptions not only constrain global fertilizer availability, but also that, with seaborne LNG flows from the region limited, any ability to boost fertilizer production elsewhere would be impacted.

“Given fertilizer accounts for ~20% of grain costs, the largest potential boost to grain prices is more likely to come from reduced grain supply. Fertilizer disruptions may reduce grain production both through yield losses from delayed or sub-optimal nitrogen application and potential acreage shifts toward less fertilizer-intensive crops,” the analysts said.

They noted that the US is viewed as “currently relatively insulated because the conflict began just ahead of the planting season,” adding that the most exposed areas include Europe, Australia, and the Southern Hemisphere, where crop calendars are later.

Even though US farmers may be relatively insulated, that does not mean US crop prices will remain low, as analysts expect global crop prices to rise.

Also on Tuesday, Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 through April 21 to secure domestic fertilizer supplies during the spring planting season. The report was released by Russia’s state-run news agency TASS, citing the Agriculture Ministry.

Last week, former central bank adviser Alexandra Prokopenko put a timeline on when the food price shock could appear in global markets, saying she believes it could emerge in six to nine months.

Latest on fertilizer and food supply chain amid Hormuz chokepoint:

• Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen

• Countdown Begins: Former Central Bank Advisor Warns Food-Price Shock Could Hit “Within 6 To 9 Months”

• Glitch Shuts Australia’s Biggest Maker Of Vital Fertilizer Input For 2 Months At Worst Possible Time

• Trump Admin Seeks Alternative Fertilizer Supplieshttps://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/trump-administration-seeks-alternative-fertilizer-supplies

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently noted that the energy and fertilizer supply shock is “troublesome for second-round inflationary effects.”

Professional subscribers can read the full Goldman report here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

News that SpaceX may file an initial public offering prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week or next sparked a rally across SpaceX-linked names, satellite broadband providers, space transportation firms, and even publicly traded closed-end funds that hold private SpaceX shares.

The Information reports that SpaceX is set to file an IPO prospectus with the SEC this week or next, with plans for shares to begin trading on U.S. exchanges sometime in June.

Wall Street advisers expect the offering to be the largest ever in the U.S., generating $75 billion for the space company leading the world’s rocket race and propelling the U.S. to the number one spot. The company’s final valuation and deal size would be set closer to the listing, but as of right now, the total market capitalization is north of $1 trillion.

Bankers are expected to pitch the SpaceX IPO to clients around three themes: its rocket-launch business, which has become a revenue driver; its rapidly expanding Starlink satellite internet business; and its prospects as a provider of orbital data centers. Hype around the stock will build as future Moon and Mars missions unfold.

🚨BREAKING: Goldman Sachs projected to lead SpaceX IPO. pic.twitter.com/Hg0y6zRok6

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) March 25, 2026

Latest reports: 

• Data Centers In Space Are Coming: Here’s How To Profit

• SpaceX IPO Hype Ignites Blast Off For This Korean Broker Stock

• Goldman Turns Bullish On Starlink Satellite Parts Supplier As Space Race Accelerates

Morningstar released a note earlier this month forecasting that SpaceX will generate nearly $16 billion in revenue in 2025 and $7.5 billion in EBITDA, driven “almost entirely by explosive subscriber growth” from its Starlink satellite internet unit, which had 10 million active customers as of last month. The company forecasts revenue of $150 billion in 2040, with EBITDA of $95 billion.

In February, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence firm, xAI, was acquired by SpaceX in an all-stock transaction, making the AI chatbot company a wholly owned subsidiary and pushing the rocket company’s valuation to $1.25 trillion.

In public markets on Wednesday, wireless spectrum firm EchoStar, which owns a 3% stake in SpaceX, jumped more than 10%. Space transportation company Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile both soared more than 11%. Other moves included Globalstar up 20% and Viasat up 4.5%.

Karman Holdings does not appear to have a clearly disclosed direct ownership stake in SpaceX, but shares are 4% higher in the session because it is a space-and-defense supplier.

A newly listed fund, Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX), which holds private shares in SpaceX and Anthropic PBC, jumped 64% in the session. 

Tesla shares were up 2% on the session. 

Rocket garden at Starbase.

You can see this from the public highway. https://t.co/hvlSOHkLr0

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 16, 2026

It seems that the meme stock trading crowd is finding out about the space theme.

China has made clear that it condemns the US-Israeli attack on Iran, saying the war should have never started, but is now signaling strong support to Pakistani-mediated efforts at finding peace.

Beijing has commented on the Pakistani offer to host US-Iran talks aimed at ending the war, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian telling reporters in Beijing: “Ceasefire and peace talks are more important tasks at hand.” The statement comes amid fresh reports that Tehran has rejected an initial 15-point draft plan delivered by Islamabad. 

“China supports all efforts conducive to easing tensions, de-escalating the situation and restoring dialogue,” the statement added.

On Iran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, Lin said: “Maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East and keeping shipping routes safe serves the common interests of the international community.”

Iran has said “non-hostile” vessels can still pass through the Strait of Hormuz – of course largely with its main crude buyer China in mind – even as traffic through the chokepoint collapses and fuels what’s shaping up to be the worst global energy shock in decades.

In a statement Tuesday delivered to the United Nations, Tehran said ships may use “safe passage” – but only if they “neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran” and strictly adhere to its security rules, which has included reports of paying a $2 million passage fee.

Also on Tuesday, Chinese Special Envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun said at a briefing after his ​shuttle-diplomacy trip that included recent stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait that the US-Israeli operation against Iran must immediately cease or else a “vicious cycle” toward destabilizing the region and disrupt global trade would persist.

“Should hostilities continue to escalate and the situation deteriorate further, the entire region will be plunged into chaos. The use of force will only lead to a vicious cycle… the war should not have begun in the first place,” Zhai declared.

It was only days ago that President Trump called on China and Japan to assist in getting the Hormuz Strait back open, but something which especially China has little incentive to do on a military front, as its instead content to watch the US get bogged down in a quagmire amid Tehran’s unexpected resilience under the bombs. China itself presumably also already had guarantees of safe passage directly from Tehran.

Iran’s foreign minister meanwhile held a phone call with China’s foreign minister on Tuesday, per Bloomberg: “Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday called on all parties in the Iran war to seize every opportunity and window for peace and start peace talks as soon as possible, Xinhua reports. Wang made the appeal in a phone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi.”

China Warns Escalation in Iran Conflict Could Spiral Into Chaos, Urges Ceasefire and Talks

Beijing’s Foreign Ministry cautions against further military escalation in the Middle East, calling for an end to hostilities and a return to diplomatic negotiations to prevent regional… pic.twitter.com/gMXwcaNjUj

— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) March 23, 2026

China has long been a powerful ally of Tehran providing with diplomatic cover, institutional support, military cooperation and an economic lifeline – especially as its major oil buyer; however, China is not expected to go further with any kind of direct military support.

There are claims that it could be, alongside Russia, providing some intelligence support though. If this is the case, there is not much Washington can do about it – also as the White House response to widespread reports of Russian intelligence-sharing has been met with some pretty mild and meager statements out of the White House.

Summary

• Iran Does Not Accept Ceasefire, Issues 5 Conditions, Says US Talks Illogical. The statement says that talks are not viable in current conditions, oil rising.

• 3,000 elite Army Airborne soldiers & Marines still en route after Trump said Monday says Iran has been destroyed “militarily”. 

• Iran is tightening control of Hormuz, demanding detailed ship data and in some cases large fees for passage.

• Iran continues to say it is ready for long war, monitors US troop movements: Parliament Speaker says “Do not test our resolve to defend our land.”

*  *  *

More Threats to Impose Steep Economic Costs on West

More threats concerning Red Sea shipping: An Iranian military source has warned via Tasnim that “If the enemy wants to carry out an operation in the territory of the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our territory or through maritime movements to cause damage to Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman – we will open additional fronts for it as a surprise, so that its operation not only will not benefit it but will also cause it double expenses.”

The source emphasized, “The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the world’s most strategic straits, and Iran possesses both the will and the ability to generate a credible threat against it. Therefore, if the Americans want to think about a foolish solution to the Strait of Hormuz, they should beware of not adding trouble and embarrassments to themselves in another strait.”

Adding a final warning, the source declared, “Iran is fully prepared to escalate the situation. If the enemy has doubts and lacks the sense to learn from its experiences, it can try us again like in the case of the Abdullah and more.”

Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant Attacked Again Tuesday Night, Reports Confirm

Another highly dangerous escalation as Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant has once again come under attack, Iran’s state media has said.

Citing the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, PressTV now confirms a projectile struck the facility Tuesday evening (local), denouncing it as an act of ‘terrorism’ against the Islamic Republic’s civilian infrastructure. 

A prior attack on the plant occurred on March 5, raising significant concerns over issues like potential nuclear and radiation. Iran has reportedly been targeting Dimona in southern Israel.

Iran Issues Its 5 Conditions for Ending the War

Iran lays out five specific conditions under which Iran would agree to end the war, via PressTV. These include:

1. A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy.

2. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic.

3. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations.

4. The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region

5. International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

State media says that upon reviewing the 15 points from the US delivered via the Pakistanis, they must be rejected as they are “excessive”. Other Iranian officials have called it a “list of impossible wishes”. CNN is meanwhile reporting Wednesday that Trump admin officials are working to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to seek out an offramp to the war, according to senior officials, but the timing remains fluid. Which side is actually in the driver’s seat here?

Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Draft Deal: “Illogical”

Confusion reigns over diplomacy as Pakistan reportedly relays Washington’s ceasefire terms to Iran. “A document given to Pakistan by the Trump administration has been presented to the Iranians,” according to Al Jazeera. An alleged early draft can be viewed here.

Iran’s Fars citing informed source on ceasefire Wednesday: Iran Does Not Accept Ceasefire, Says US Talks Illogical: Fars. The statement says that talks are not viable in current conditions. Oil jumps on the headline:

Tehran has consistently been denying any negotiations outright, with Iran’s ambassador insists no direct or indirect talks are happening, even as “friendly countries” conduct consultations. Iran’s military also brushed off claims by President Trump, vowing to press on with the fight, and asserting that Washington is merely negotiating with itself, trying to will something into existence which isn’t yet reality.

Bloomberg has summarized where things stand: “Iran kept up missile and drone attacks on Israel and Arab Gulf states, even after the US floated a plan to end a war that’s wreaked havoc across the Middle East and in global markets.” The below are also key points:

• Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and “we don’t want to be fooled again,” according to a source with direct knowledge of those discussions. They worry Trump is buying time as he brings more military equipment to the Middle East. 
• Iran has received an American 15-point plan for a ceasefire for the Iran war through intermediaries from Pakistan, officials in Islamabad said Wednesday. The proposal was sent even as Washington began to move paratroopers to the Middle East to back up a contingent of Marines already heading to the region. 

Iran military spokesman: “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you’re negotiating with yourselves?“

🔺NEW: Spokesman for Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters addresses the U.S.:

🔹“Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you’re negotiating with yourselves?”

🔹“Don’t call your defeat an ‘agreement’. You will see neither your investments in the region nor previous… pic.twitter.com/PHackJjyjf

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 25, 2026

Trump’s “Very Big Present” & Hormuz Leverage

Trump, meanwhile, claims Iran offered a “present…worth a tremendous amount of money,” tied to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz – but provided no details. At the same time, the US is ramping troop deployments even as it touts negotiations to end the conflict. He also claimed “we are… talking to the right people” in Iran, adding to the confusion and ambiguity.

On the ground, Iran is tightening control of Hormuz, demanding detailed ship data and in some cases fees for passage – especially for oil and gas tankers. Traffic has thinned, with non-compliant vessels turned away, raising pressure on Asian economies like India and drawing pushback from China.

Hundreds of vessels still remain paralyzed, after Iran adopted an “eye for an eye” policy to re-establish deterrence and impose sever costs on both America’s Gulf partners and the global economy. Here’s the latest on Iran’s statements and policy regarding passage:

Iran has said that “non-hostile” ships may transit the Strait of Hormuz amid a collapse of maritime traffic through the waterway that has prompted the biggest global energy crisis in decades.

In a statement on Tuesday, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said vessels may avail of “safe passage” through the waterway, “provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations.”

Tit-for-Tat Hits On Key Infrastructure

US-Israeli strikes on Iran continue, while Iranian missiles trigger alarms across Israel. Gulf states are still feeling the pain, with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain intercepted incoming threats, while Kuwait reported a fire at its main airport after a fuel tank was hit, according to Bloomberg.

Israel says it has crossed the 15,000-munitions mark in strikes on Iran since late February – highlighting the scale of the conflict, now far exceeding prior rounds of fighting. On Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the air force has carried out multiple new waves of airstrikes over Tehran, targeting what it described as Iranian regime infrastructure.

This has apparently included Iran’s only submarine development facility, as part of a broader wave of attacks on weapons production sites around Isfahan. According to the IDF, the targeted underwater R&D center is the “only site in Iran responsible for the planning and development of submarines and auxiliary systems for the Iranian navy.” It added: “The regime produced various models of unmanned vessels at the site.”

Reports say Iran again targeted Israel’s largest power plant in Hadera (Orot Rabin):

BREAKING: Reports claim Iran again targeted Israel’s largest power plant in Hadera (Orot Rabin), but the missile landed several kilometers away. pic.twitter.com/bLmnQ5HFWy

— The Breaking Minutes (@BreakingMinutes) March 25, 2026

Israel is also escalating in Lebanon, bombing Beirut and pushing deeper into the south as it signals plans for a longer-term occupation zone.

Tehran ‘Closely Monitoring’ US Troop Deployments

Iranian officials are issuing stark warnings, most importantly with parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf having declared: “We are closely monitoring all US movements in the region, especially troop deployments. Do not test our resolve to defend our land.” He added, “What the generals have broke, the soldiers can’t fix; instead, they will fall victim to Netanyahu’s delusions.” 

Official casualty latest per Pentagon: 232 U.S. service members have been injured since the start of the conflict, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson has said. Of those, 207 have returned to duty and 10 are seriously wounded. At least 13 have been killed.

As for the US troops, it’s anything but clear at this point what comes next after they finally arrive in the region. There’s talk that Trump could order a Kharg Island takeover, which itself would be ultra high-risk, given how deep inside the narrow strait that the island lies. 

Meanwhile WSJ reviews of the above mentioned Ghalibaf: “Iran’s combative Parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, is emerging as an unlikely figure in Washington’s search for a deal to halt a widening Middle East war.”

We went from “no more wars” to Fox News showing where US troops are going to invade Iran. pic.twitter.com/MxftEv5954

— Nathan Hughes (@rallynate) March 24, 2026

“Ghalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps air-force commander and Tehran mayor, has denied any talks with the U.S. are under way,” the report continues. “He has taunted President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and called the U.S.-Israeli air war with Iran a quagmire. He served in the Revolutionary Guard during Iran’s brutal war with Iraq in the 1980s and is known as a hard-liner’s hard-liner.”

But, the report notes, “At the same time, he is credited with helping to modernize Tehran while he was mayor, becoming famous for riding his motorcycle around town and expanding major highways and the metro system in a traffic-clogged city. In 2008, he traveled to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, portraying himself as a leader with a more business-friendly attitude than other parts of the regime.” Some analysts have said that Washington could eventually work with him. 

*  *  * Spring is here. Got seeds?

Indian refiners have bought about 60 million barrels of Russian oil for delivery next month, which is set to ease some supply concerns as the Middle East war chokes flows.

Citing people familiar, Bloomberg reports that the cargoes were booked at premiums of $5 to $15 a barrel to Brent. The volume is similar to the amount of purchases for this month, but more than double than that for February, according to data intelligence firm Kpler.

The buying spree followed a US waiver that allowed India to take Russian oil that was already loaded onto vessels before March 5 to offset shortages caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The measure was subsequently expanded to include other countries and updated to allow purchases of crude already at sea before March 12.

India has bought ~60 million barrels of Russian oil in March, and already booked a similar amount for delivery in April.

The purchases are at a premium of $5-$15 a barrel **above** the Brent benchmark. And current prices, that’s worth >$6.5 billion for each month.

Putin wins.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 25, 2026

The South Asian nation has been among the heaviest hit by the Hormuz blockade and the plunge in oil supply as it is heavily reliant on imported oil, and became a major buyer of discounted Russian crude following the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. However, India sharply cut back purchases from late last year under US pressure, turning instead to barrels from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, much of which then became trapped inside the Persian Gulf after the outbreak of the war. 

Indian officials expect the US waiver to be extended as long as disruptions in Hormuz persist, the people said. Refiners such as Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals and Hindustan Mittal Energy, which had avoided Russian oil since December, have returned to the market, they said.

Separately, Bloomberg also reports that Indian refiners are increasingly settling purchases of Russian oil in alternative currencies, as they seek to reduce reliance on the dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and shifts in US policy. Transactions are being carried out by depositing Indian rupees into special overseas bank accounts held by Russian sellers which are then being converted into UAE’s dirham or the Chinese yuan. The trades are being facilitated by Indian banks with limited offshore presence.

In addition to the dirham and yuan, firms are also considering the Singapore dollar and Hong Kong dollar, though transactions depend on individual banks’ comfort levels, one of the people added.

While the US earlier this month granted India a waiver to ramp up purchases of Russian oil, it is set to expire on April 11. Ahead of that deadline, some Russian oil firms are pushing for more durable arrangements, seeking payment in alternative currencies to limit exposure to shifting US policy.

In a note on Tuesday, Deutsche Bank said the conflict is testing the Petrodollar’s role as the currency for global oil trade, with one long-term consequence being a potential shift toward the yuan.

No matter what currency is used, Russia is reaping bumper profits on renewed demand and elevated prices for its oil. The Kremlin is earning the most from its crude exports since March 2022, shortly after Moscow’s troops poured into Ukraine.

In addition to buying more Russian oil, Indian processors are also looking elsewhere to diversify their supply as the war drags on. The country’s purchases of Venezuelan crude for April arrival are projected at 8 million barrels, the highest since October 2020, according to Kpler.

Meta Platforms is laying off a few hundred employees today as its workforce restructuring continues, following years of terrible metaverse bets and overhiring during the Covid era. Reports of another round of layoffs surfaced earlier this month, and just last week, Meta shut down Horizon Worlds, its virtual reality social network for Quest headsets.

The Information reports that a few hundred employees will be let go today as part of the company’s effort to reposition itself in the AI space.

People familiar with the workforce restructuring say a majority of the cuts will focus on staff in Reality Labs, social media teams, recruiting, and a smaller number of sales roles.

“Teams across Meta regularly restructure or implement changes to ensure they’re in the best position to achieve their goals. Where possible, we are finding other opportunities for employees whose positions may be impacted,” a Meta spokesperson told the outlet.

In mid-March, Reuters reported that a new round of layoffs at Meta was imminent and would reduce the workforce by 20%. The outlet said that the workforce restructuring is intended to redirect capital flows toward AI infrastructure.

The latest Bloomberg data show Meta’s total workforce at the end of 2025 was about 79,000. Any layoffs today would amount to only a quarter of a percent.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been downsizing the workforce since the 2022–23 “year of efficiency” layoffs.

Shares of Meta peaked in August 2025 at around $790 and have since been locked in a bear market, down around 25%.

The reason for Meta’s underperformance can be found in our note on Tuesday titled “What’s The Matter With Meta: Goldman Explains The Stock’s Ongoing Slump.”

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said Tuesday that US airstrikes in Anbar, western Iraq, killed 15 of its fighters, including a senior commander.

“In a blatant and cowardly attack, the commander of the Anbar Operations in the Popular Mobilization Forces, Saad Dua al-Bayji, was martyred along with a group of his heroic comrades following a treacherous American airstrike that targeted the command headquarters while they were performing their national duty,” the PMF said in a statement, according to The Cradle.

The group added that it was holding the Iraqi government “fully responsible” for “confronting these repeated American violations and taking clear and resolute positions to preserve the country’s sovereignty and put an end to these grave transgressions.”

Iraqi media later reported that Iraq’s National Security Council, chaired by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, has given the PMF the green light to respond to attacks on its positions, a significant step from the US-backed Iraqi government that will likely lead to further escalations inside the country.

The PMF is a coalition of mostly Shia militias aligned with Iran that formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and is officially part of Iraq’s security forces. Since the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28, the US has launched extensive strikes against the PMF, killing dozens of its fighters.

US bases and diplomatic facilities in Iraq have come under constant missile and drone attacks and have mostly been claimed by a group that calls itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), which includes some of the factions in the PMF. Amid the heavy attacks, the US ordered all American citizens to leave Iraq, and NATO has withdrawn its forces from the country.

The IRI said on Monday that the US has also pulled all of its forces out of Camp Victory, a major US base near the Baghdad airport, but the withdrawal hasn’t been confirmed. “We confirm that the American and NATO forces have completed their withdrawal from Camp Victory near Baghdad Airport via cargo planes and vehicles overland towards Jordan,” the group said. “We will not allow the current government, or the future government, God willing, to allow the Americans and NATO to return to Iraq.”

If the US did pull its troops out of Baghdad, there would still be US forces in Iraqi Kurdistan. Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, has said that it has halted attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad to give the US time to evacuate the facility. “Our primary condition is the expulsion of all foreign troops from the north to the south of Iraq,” a Kataib Hezbollah official said.

*  *  *

Democrats flipped a reliably red Florida state House seat that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate on Tuesday, scoring a narrow but symbolically significant victory in a special election that drew national attention.

Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in House District 87 by just over 2 percentage points, according to unofficial results. The win marks an approximately 11-point swing toward Democrats compared to the 2024 performance in the Palm Beach County district.

Gregory, a first-time candidate who runs a fitness center for postpartum moms and has a background in public health and mental health administration, campaigned on affordability, taxes and kitchen-table issues. Maples, a financial planner and former local council member, had received an endorsement from Trump, who along with first lady Melania Trump and their son Barron voted by mail in the contest.

“I think it demonstrates where the Florida voter is,” Gregory told Politico after her victory. “They want someone who is focused on solutions and the issues and not focused on the noise.”

Democrats also picked up a narrow win in a Tampa-area state Senate seat, where union leader and Navy veteran Brian Nathan defeated former state Rep. Josie Tomkow by a slim margin despite being outspent roughly 10-to-1.

The two Democratic victories will not alter Republican supermajorities in the Florida Legislature. But they come as the latest data point in a series of special-election overperformances and flips for Democrats in the state since Trump’s 2024 victory there – and amid a broader national trend of Democrats gaining ground in state legislative races over the past year.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried credited the party’s sustained organizing with the win. 

“This victory reiterates an undeniable trend in Florida: With year-round organizing and infrastructure investment, Democrats can run and win anywhere – including Donald Trump’s backyard,” Fried said in a statement. “Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky-high prices on everything from groceries to gas and health care.”

In 2024, the House District 87 race had been held by Republican Mike Caruso, who won it by 19 points before being appointed to a local post by Gov. Ron DeSantis, triggering the special election. The contest grew heated in its final days, with sharp exchanges in mailers and text messages.

Democrats poured significant resources into the Palm Beach County race, viewing it as a chance to compete in Trump’s home turf. Republicans, meanwhile, downplayed the significance of the low-turnout special election.

In the state Senate District 14 race, which opened after DeSantis appointed Lt. Gov. Jay Collins last August, Nathan’s upset win was described as a surprise even by some Democrats. Tomkow, a rancher who previously held a House seat in neighboring Polk County, faced questions about her residency in the district.

Nathan, a union leader and veteran, was outspent by roughly 10 to 1 in the race to replace Collins and had received scant support from state Democrats. He narrowly defeated former state Rep. Josie Tomkow, a rancher who had held a House seat in neighboring Polk County. Tomkow’s residency had come under question, although she said she planned to move into the district once she was elected. But even Fried acknowledged that Nathan’s win was in state Senate District 14 was a surprise.

A separate House race created by Tomkow’s departure was won by Republican Hilary Holley by nine points – a solid victory but narrower than Tomkow’s margin in 2024.

Tuesday’s outcomes add to Democratic momentum in Florida special elections, even as the GOP maintains firm control of state government. Party strategists on both sides will be watching whether the results signal anything larger heading into the 2026 midterm cycle.

Oil prices remain lower this morning, following the US proposal for a ceasefire with Iran, but off the lows following Iran’s rejection.

“From the Iranian perspective, Trump’s actions this week have demonstrated that the US can be pressured when Iran threatens further escalation,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

Futures had already pared losses as Tehran fired a new wave of missiles at Israel, and signaled little willingness to compromise. Iran’s armed forces added to a stream of messaging that ruled out ceasefire talks, according to state-run IRIB News. They added that they wouldn’t allow oil prices to return to their previous levels until all threats against the country were removed.

Overnight saw API report a modest rise in crude and refined product inventories and while oil prices are really more attuned to the geopolitical headlines currently, we’re keeping our eyes on the domestic supply and demand for any signs of an actual impact locally.

API

• Crude +2.35mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +528k

• Distillates +1.39mm

DOE

• Crude +6.93mm (-200k exp)

• Cushing +3.42mm – biggest weekly build since Jan 2023

• Gasoline -2.59mm

• Distillates +3.03mm

US crude stocks rose for the 5th straight week with inventories at the Cushing Hub soaring by 3.4mm barrels – the biggest build since Jan 2023. Refined products were mixed with Distillates stocks up bigly while Gasoline stocks fell for the sixth straight week…

Source: Bloomberg

For the 5th week in a row, there was no addition (or drawdown) for the US SPR.

Total Cushing stocks are their highest since July 2024 while total gasoline stocks tumbled to their lowest since the start of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude imports from Venezuela surged to their highest since 2019…

US Crude production remains ‘near’ record highs – but despite a rising rig count, production is not increasing…

Source: Bloomberg

No signs of gasoline demand destruction so far. Finished motor gasoline product supplied came in at 8.9 million barrels per day for the EIA week, a week-on-week increase of 196,000 barrels per day.

WTI was trading around $89 ahead of the official inventory data (at the upper end of the overnight session’s range)…

“In the past 24 hours, the Trump administration has been signaling both to concerned citizens, policymakers, allies, adversaries, and perhaps most importantly markets, that there may be an end in sight sooner than the president himself had let on just about a week ago,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Bloomberg TV.

“A lot of that is hand-holding, particularly for energy markets.”

Perhaps this is why…

Not a great backdrop for the Midterms (admittedly six months away).

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Don’t screen yourself off from reality

Today starts with markets in a positive mood, stocks up in Asia, bond yields down slightly, and Brent oil down around 7% to $97.5. Yet don’t screen yourself from reality. As underlined before, the price of energy on a screen currently has no relation to its actual availability in different forms in certain geographies. The Philippines just declared a national emergency to conserve fuel; South Korea is curtailing private driving; Slovenia has introduced rationing; and the boss of Shell is quoted saying Europe will face fuel shortages within days (see “Where Demand Destruction Is Greatest “).

Iran, via its parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf, whom the US is now negotiating with, also makes this clear: “We are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader jawboning campaign. But let’s see if they can turn that into “actual fuel” at the pump – or maybe even print gas molecules!”

We are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader jawboning campaign.

But let’s see if they can turn that into “actual fuel” at the pump —or maybe even print gas molecules!

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 24, 2026

That said, Iran has stated “non-hostile” ships can now transit Hormuz if the vessels co-ordinate with it. That would mean this crisis is essentially already over, albeit with Iran de facto taking control of Hormuz as a toll-way: only the US and Israel are ‘hostiles’, and they don’t use the Strait. But haven’t we seen this on our screens before? Did you notice any change in energy flows?

Indeed, looking at your screens won’t tell you what’s going to happen in this war. For example, the New York Times reports Saudi’s MBS is still pushing Trump to continue fighting due to the “historic opportunity” to remake the region; officially, Saudi rebuts these claims. Israel says it backs any US efforts to start talks with Iran but privately feels otherwise – and Israel is hitting Russian-Iranian weapons smuggling routes in the Caspian Sea, expanding the war to a new geography that links it back to the one in Ukraine.

Positively, and showing official denials don’t mean much, the US is negotiating with some in Tehran – though do they speak for a fracturing regime? It has sent a 15-point plan to end the war, according to Reuters, with Ghalibaf and foreign minister Araghchi reportedly told they won’t be killed while talks are ongoing(!) The first round is pencilled in by Thursday in Pakistan: Iran just said they don’t want to talk to Witkoff and Kushner, preferring anti-neocon VP Vance.

However, both sides’ starting positions are: ‘We won, you surrender.’ The US is offering a one-month ceasefire, with Iran: dismantling its nuclear capabilities; vowing to “never seek” nuclear weapons; stopping the enrichment of nuclear material; delivering its enriched uranium to the IAEA; decommissioning and destroying Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow; granting the IAEA full access; stopping funding and arming its proxies; stepping back from its ballistic missile program, keeping them only for defence; and promising to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. This is in return for US support for the development of a civilian nuclear program in Bushehr and lifting all sanctions. By contrast, Iran is demanding an apology from the US, reparations for wartime losses, guarantees against future US or Israeli military action, the removal of US military bases in the region, no restrictions on its ballistic missile program, no shift in its proxies approach, and formal control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Where is the workable compromise?

Yet, again, is there more going on in reality? What Iran says its positions are may not be what they actually are – and the same could be true for the US, to a lesser extent, given the deal on the table is a more muscular version of the much-derided Obama-era JCPOA.

In that regard, Trump says Iran has given the US a gift “worth a tremendous amount of money” which isn’t nuclear, but energy related: what might that be? Trump says it shows he is “dealing with the right people.” That implies the wrong people are there too, so Iranian factions are forming, which implies any deal may not hold for everyone who can shoot a missile or drone.

Iran is singing “Won’t get fooled again” over the negotiations. After all, new US military power allowing for boots on the ground will arrive in Hormuz after markets close on Friday. What position does the US intend to take? Doing nothing? Or seizing Iran’s enriched uranium? Or Kharg island, which wouldn’t reopen Hormuz, but would stop most Iranian oil flows, choking the regime while exacerbating the global energy crisis? Or smaller islands in and parts of the shoreline of Hormuz to ensure the Strait reopens? Inaction is pointless, but all actions risk Iran escalating against Gulf energy facilities. Or could the ‘gift’ Trump referred to be linked in some way, e.g., “Kharg-a-Lago”? Maritime expert John Konrad also floats an addition to his earlier hypothesis that the unstated US aim here may be to not reopen Hormuz and use the leverage it achieves as a result. Pick a US position, then pick a market position, then watch your screen.

Meanwhile, it’s not exactly quiet elsewhere:

• The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier, on its last hurrah, is to be sent to SOUTHCOM (LatAm) not CENTCOM (the Middle East): does that point to geopolitical action in that region – like Cuba?
• The EU said it won’t reverse its Russian gas ban or slow down its green transition, despite the current crisis – but a Russian oil import ban has suddenly dropped off of Brussels’ short-term agenda.
• The EU’s enlargement chief said the bloc needs to change its rules to enable a new wave of countries to join and called on member states to present their own plans after they rejected proposals by the Commission to streamline the process.
• EU lawmakers told the US to give up trying to change EU tech rules as the UK wants to bring back 76 EU laws, according to the Telegraph: new legislation is planned to allow Labour to transfer Brussels powers back onto the UK statute book.
• Germany’s VW is in talks with Israel’s Iron Dome maker to shift from making cars to missile defences in one of its factories, which underlines the shift in political economy underway. So does Anduril and Palantir developing the US Golden Dome missile shield’s software.
• Denmark’s centre-left PM won her snap election with 38% of the vote and is now trying to put together a new coalition, but notably the far-right Danish People’s Party rose to 16%, continuing a similar trend seen in many European polities.
• The US is reportedly looking at trying to reform the WTO along its own lines rather than just ignoring it entirely. But for now, world trade revolves around what happens in Hormuz far more: no bunker fuel, no ships carrying cargo, not much trade at all.