Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said on Oct. 21 that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will resume distributing aid for farmers frozen by the government shutdown.

In a statement on X, Rollins said the USDA will resume operations at the Farm Service Agency (FSA) on Oct. 23, which includes processing farm loans and managing federal aid programs for farmers across the country.

“President Trump will not let the radical left Democrat shutdown impact critical USDA services while harvest is underway across the country,” the secretary stated.

Rollins said in a subsequent post that financial aid for farmers totals more than $3 billion.

In an interview with Fox News that aired Oct. 21, Rollins said that President Donald Trump has directed the USDA to reopen FSA offices nationwide to allow farmers to access and cash their aid payments.

The secretary also revealed that the Trump administration was preparing an aid package for farmers affected by China’s refusal to buy soybeans from the United States amid trade negotiations.

“Frankly, if the shutdown hadn’t happened a couple of weeks ago, thanks to the Democrats again, that package would likely have already been announced,” Rollins told the news outlet.

“But we are preparing it every day that goes by. The market changes a little bit, [but] there are some potential big moves coming in from around the world, from other markets,” she added.

China, the world’s largest soybean importer, purchased more than $12.64 billion worth of soybeans from the United States last year, according to the USDA data.

The country is now turning to suppliers from South America as negotiations over tariffs with the United States remain ongoing, resulting in billions in lost sales for American farmers.

Trump stated on Oct. 1 that soybeans would be a “major topic of discussion” during an expected meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea later this month.

“The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying,” Trump stated in a Truth Social post.

The president also suggested that his administration would use revenues collected from tariffs to provide assistance to American farmers affected by China’s move.

“We’ve made so much money on tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our farmers,” he stated.

“It’s all going to work out very well.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Oct. 2 that since every recent U.S. trade deal has included investments in American farm products, “we’re going to see other countries substitute for China.”

Update(1651ET): Washington is predictably making demands of Russia, despite that Ukraine still doesn’t have much in the way of leverage on the battlefield – and at a moment President Trump has refused to bring real pressure to bear on Kiev to make territorial concessions. 

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in a Wednesday afternoon statement, after he said new sanctions are imminent.

“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war. We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions.”

The companies have been named in the Treasury statement as follows:

Today’s action targets Russia’s two largest oil companies, Open Joint Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft) and Lukoil OAO  (Lukoil), which are now designated.  Rosneft is a vertically integrated energy company specializing in the exploration, extraction, production, refining, transport, and sale of petroleum, natural gas, and petroleum products.  Lukoil engages in the exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and gas in Russia and internationally.

Rosneft and Lukoil are being designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the energy sector of the Russian Federation economy.

Dozens of Russia-based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries have also been named as falling under the fresh sanctions.

This takes the two sides further away from actually striking a peace deal at the negotiating table than ever before.

* * *

Update(1546ET): A couple of significant breaking headlines saw oil prices spike Wednesday afternoon, especially US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing Washington would unveil fresh sanctions against Russia, and coming only day after President Trump shelved talks with Moscow on the Ukraine war, after initial talk of a Budapest summit with Putin.

“We are going to either announce after the close this afternoon, or first thing tomorrow morning, a substantial pickup in Russia sanctions,” Bessent told reporters at the White House.

⚡️The US will tighten sanctions against Russia – this will be announced tomorrow, said Finance Minister Bessent. pic.twitter.com/5VERAhjOC5

— big ben (@alternative_war) October 22, 2025

Bessent later told Larry Kudlow that the imminent Russia sanctions will be one of the biggest yet:

“President Putin has not come to the table in an honest and forthright manner, as we’d hoped.

There were talks in Alaska, President Trump walked away when he realized that things were not moving forward.

There have been behind-the-scenes talks, but I believe that the president is disappointed at the – where we are in these talks.

So this — either this evening or first thing tomorrow morning, we are going to be announcing a substantial increase in Russia’s sanctions… this will be one of the largest sanctions that we have done against the Russian Federation.“

Bessent complains: ‘Putin hasn’t come to the table in an honest and forthright manner’

He thinks Trump’s ‘DISAPPOINTED at where we are in talks’

Says new Russia sanctions will be ‘1 of LARGEST’ https://t.co/1kwzoVObQX pic.twitter.com/h4n6UmoZNe

— RT (@RT_com) October 22, 2025

His comments sent the price of WTI Crude soaring…

Bessent’s comments came just before NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte was due at the White House, in which he said he hopes to discuss “how to deliver” Trump’s “vision of peace” in the conflict.

Earlier in the day, Rutte said he believes that Trump is “the only one who can get this done”.

* * *

Just as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte is in Washington and is set to meet with President Trump Wednesday afternoon, Russia has launched another major overnight drone and missile attack which resulted in a high amount of civilian casualties.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a post on X that the attack killed at least seven civilians, including children, and that 17 were confirmed injured. “There were fires in Zaporizhzhia and hits on homes in Kyiv. The Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy and Sumy regions were under attack,” he wrote.

In all at least ten regions came under attack, and air defense were active across the country, with at least one major drone intercept caught on camera (below).

Zelensky highlighted both the ongoing need for Western-supplied air defense systems, as well as piling more sanctions on Moscow to make it feel the pressure. “Russian words about diplomacy mean nothing as long as the Russian leadership doesn’t feel critical problems,” Zelensky asserted.

Also, Zelensky alleged that Russia’s assault directly struck a kindergarten in Kharkiv, and that one fatality occurred as a result. He described all children were evacuated, with many “experiencing acute stress reactions”.

Many regions across the country have been experiencing blackouts as well, after already the national electricity grid operator said it would be forced to implement an emergency program of rolling outages.

The moment of interception of a Russian Shahed-136/Geran-2 long-range OWA-UAV by Ukrainian air defenses while it is diving on its target. pic.twitter.com/7UmSHgxKSu

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) October 22, 2025

Zelensky has been arguing that Moscow has no interest whatsoever in peace: “These strikes are Russia’s spit in the face of everyone who insists on a peaceful resolution. Bandits and terrorists can only be put in their place by force.”

Russia’s military, for its part, has countered that it only targeted the “energy infrastructure of Ukraine’s military-industrial sector”. Moscow has frequently denied that it intentionally targets civilian sites and homes. 

“In response to Ukraine’s terrorist attacks on civilian facilities on the territory of Russia, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a massive overnight strike by ground-based and airborne long-range precision weapons, including Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles and also attack unmanned aerial vehicles, hitting energy infrastructure of Ukraine’s military-industrial sector,” a statement in TASS said.

It added, “The goals of the strike were achieved. All the designated targets were hit.” Likely Russian officials are going to deny that the military attacked a children’s school.

Удар російського безпілотника по дитячому садочку в Харкові – після ночі масованої атаки. На жаль, відомо про одного загиблого. Мої співчуття рідним. Станом на зараз семеро людей постраждало. Їм надається медична допомога. Всі діти евакуйовані й перебувають в укриттях. За… pic.twitter.com/uSdSaf8k7u

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 22, 2025

The military has also said Russian troops captured two settlements in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions over the past 24 hours.

“Battlegroup Center units liberated the settlement of Ivanovka in the Dnepropetrovsk Region through decisive operations… Battlegroup East units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Pavlovka in the Zaporozhye Region,” the defense ministry said in a statement.

NATO’s Rutte in Washington will likely press Trump to take a firmer stance on Russia, and the two might even privately discussing transferring US Tomahawk missiles to Kiev. Trump has signaled he’s against this for now, but the option has probably not been taken off the table just yet.

Update (1630ET): President Trump has issued a statement via Truth Social calling The Wall Street Journal’s report implying that the US supported/sanctioned Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles into Russia is ‘fake news’:

“The Wall Street Journal story on the U.S.A.’s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long range missiles deep into Russia is FAKE NEWS!

The U.S. has nothing to do with those missiles, wherever they may come from, or what Ukraine does with them!”

But the Russian sanctions threat remains “substantial”.

*  *  *

As Dave DeCamp detailed earlier via AntiWar.com, Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday that it used British-provided Storm Shadow missiles to strike a chemical plant inside Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, signaling the US is again supporting Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian territory.

“A massive combined missile-and-air strike was carried out, including with air-launched Storm Shadow missiles that penetrated Russia’s air defence system,” the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said in a statement, according to Reuters. So far, the attack hasn’t been confirmed by Russia.

Storm Shadows are produced jointly by the UK and France and have a range of about 150 miles. Ukraine first began firing them into Russia last year, along with US-provided ATACMS missiles, which can hit targets up to 190 miles away.

In August, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was not allowing Ukraine to fire ATACMS into Russia, a policy that also applied to Storm Shadows, since the Ukrainian military requires US targeting data to fire the British missiles.

But another report from the outlet this month said that President Trump reversed the policy and signed off on providing Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.

The Financial Times has also reported that the Trump administration has been providing intelligence for long-range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure since July.

US-backed missile and drone attacks on Russian territory always risk a major escalation from Moscow, which could draw all of NATO into nuclear-armed confrontation with Russia.

Purported video of strike on Bryansk chemical plant…

❗️❗️❗️🇺🇦🚀BOOOM – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms that today a successful strike was carried out on the Bryansk chemical plant, during which several STORM SHADOW type cruise missiles were used along with other types of cruise missiles in the attack,… pic.twitter.com/FNJZBPaMOK

— Visioner (@visionergeo) October 21, 2025

When President Biden first gave Ukraine the green light to fire ATACMS and Storm Shadows into Russia, Moscow responded by altering its nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

First a preview (for those who just want the results, skip this section):

As previewed earlier, today’s Tesla earnings report will be closely watched by most – not just because it is the first Mag7 company to report, but because the stocks has soared in recent months, and everyone will be wondering if Elon will substantiate the move with cold, hard data. 

The Q3 earnings will be boosted by record third-quarter sales earlier this month, driven by US consumers making purchases before EV tax credits went away at the of September. The deliveries give Tesla respite from an extended rough patch, but the EV maker still remains on track for a second straight year of declining sales. Tesla’s aging vehicle lineup has faced increased competition. There’s also been a backlash against the brand after CEO Elon Musk’s partisan politics and role in the Trump Administration. 

The Q3 earnings call will be a precursor to the Nov. 6 vote on Musk’s unprecedented $1 trillion pay package. In some sense, it presents a late opportunity to influence voting. The retail investors who get to submit and vote on questions for the call certainly believe so. Beyond proximity to the annual shareholder meeting, there’s also some math to be done from the quarter Tesla’s reporting, and the company’s plan for the next decade.

The sale of regulatory credits to other automakers has long been a cash cow for Tesla, including $439 million in the second quarter.  But now the market for these credits has largely evaporated, because the Trump administration has eliminated penalties for automakers who don’t comply with CAFE, or corporate average fuel economy, standards. This is a much bigger hit to Tesla’s bottom line than the $7,500 tax credit for consumers that has long helped electric vehicles compete with the internal combustion engine.

Separately, the nearly 500,000 vehicles Tesla delivered last quarter coincided with US consumers rushing to beat federal tax credits expiring. Musk’s proposed pay package mandates that the company delivers 20 million EVs to consumers over the 10 years of the agreement. To do that, Tesla will have to average 500,000 units a quarter. So if last quarter was a one-off boosted by policy, how are Tesla and Musk going to keep hitting that target? Capacity? Better products?

Investors will also vote on a non-binding shareholder proposal for Tesla to take a stake in Musk’s xAI startup, an idea Musk floated last year. The two companies already work together. Some Tesla vehicles integrate xAI’s Grok, and the companies have agreements for xAI to purchase Tesla’s Megapack battery storage systems.

Investors and analysts will also be closely listening for any updates on autonomy efforts, including robotaxi and FSD (Full Self Driving) software.  Tesla and Musk have increasingly bet the company on these areas, but the CEO is also known for his overly ambitious timelines.  In June, Tesla launched its long-awaited robotaxi, using existing Model Y SUVs with safety drivers in the passenger seat. But there have been few updates. So far Tesla is operating in Austin, and has permits to test autonomous vehicles in Nevada and Arizona.

Earnings aside, BBG’s Ed Ludlow notes that one of Elon Musk’s greatest skills is keeping investors looking to the horizon. In that respect, there will be some repetition on the vision for a robotaxi service, with a fleet split between consumer-owned Tesla submitted to it, Tesla’s Cybercab and off-lease cars. Then there’s the economy-changing Optimus Humanoid robot. Indeed, at Tesla’s engineering HQ, Optimus is already in and amongst the workforce, prowling the rows of desks, and a great source of pride to the company.

Also top of mind for some this earnings call: will any analysts ask Elon Musk about Tesla’s plans to redesign its doors? When Tesla vehicles lose power, crashes can turn into deadly races against time. In September, Bloomberg published an investigation into this issue that focused, in part, on the fatal Cybertruck crash in Piedmont, California, from last year where three of four occupants — all college students — died. Then, on Sept. 16, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it opened a defect investigation into certain Tesla Model Y door handles. And on Sept. 17, Tesla’s chief designer said the company is working on a redesign of its door handles. What is the timeline for a redesign? And will it be available on all models going forward? Are there any plans to retrofit existing models? Or is the thinking that Tesla is in compliance with existing federal motor vehicle safety standards, so there is no need? 

With all that in mind…

Here is what Tesla – the first Mag 7 to report – just revealed for the just concluded 3rd quarter:

• Revenue $28.10 billion, +12% y/y, beating estimates of $26.36 billion
• Adjusted EPS 50c, down vs 72c y/y, and missing the estimate if 54c 
• GAAP EPS 39c, down vs 62c y/y
• Gross margin 18% vs. 19.8% y/y, beating estimate 17.2%, but…
• Tesla 3Q Auto Gross Margin Ex-Reg Credit 15.4%, missing estimate of 16.3%, and down vs 17.1% Y/Y
• Operating income $1.62 billion, -40% y/y, missing estimate $1.65 billion
• Free cash flow $3.99 billion, +46% y/y, beating estimates $1.25 billion

While revenue and margins beat, the Adj EPS miss was a big surprise judging by the violent repricing on Polymarket which had a “beat” at 80% moments before the release:

While the numbers were mixed, perhaps the most important one – the company’s regulator credits are discussed above – slumped to just $417MM, the lowest in two years, and will continue to decline for the duration of Trump’s admin (at least).

A quick snapshot of the company’s discussions of its revenue, which increased 12% YoY to $28.1B, and beat estimates: 

• + increase in vehicle deliveries (driven by expiration of tax credit)
• + growth in Energy Generation and Storage
• + growth in Services and Other
   
• – lower regulatory credit revenue
• – lower one-time FSD revenue recognition YoY due to Q3’24 releases related to Cybertruck and certain features such as Actually Smart Summon

… but while revenue was good, profitability was not: operating income decreased 40% YoY to $1.6B despite a 7% jump in deliveries and the highest auto revenue in nearly two years –  resulting in only 5.8% operating margin. Tesla took a notable hit here to the bottom line, and talked about a laundry list including tariffs, new models, lower regulatory credits and increased R&D costs:

• + growth in Energy Generation and Storage gross profit
• + increase in vehicle deliveries
• + growth in Services and Other gross profit
   
• – lower regulatory credit revenue
• – increase in operating expenses (excl. SBC and Restructuring and Other) driven by SG&A, AI and other R&D projects
• – increase in SBC and Restructuring and Other charges
• – lower one-time FSD revenue recognition YoY as described above
• – higher average cost per vehicle due to lower fixed cost absorption for certain models, an increase in tariffs, and sales mix, partially offset by lower raw material costs

Here are the charts recapping Q3:

Tesla’s own market share chart in its earnings release shows the slowdown that’s beset the EV maker around the world, particularly in Europe and in China.  

As BBG notes, it is a strange chart to include in an earnings release, which shines a light on just how much market share growth has stunted. 

Going down the press release we find this good news… 

“Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026. First generation production lines for Optimus are being installed in anticipation of volume production.”

… but then again, it may all change: Tesla warned again they are in a time of transition, expanding the portfolio of EV products, bracing for future revenues from AI and robotics. Here’s how they explain their volumes:

“It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services. While we are making prudent investments that will set up our vehicle, energy and other future businesses for growth, the actual results will depend on a variety of factors, including the broader macroeconomic environment, the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts and production ramp at our factories”

As Tesla notes, it launched ride-hailing service in the Bay Area using Robotaxi technology. It’s worth noting that the service isn’t permitted for, or considered fully autonomous. The company also uses the term Robotaxi FSD to refer to the latest version of FSD (Supervised) that has been deployed to some beta testers. Btw, there was no mention of robotaxi in Nevada or Arizona where the company has autonomous test permits.

A quick look at best geographies:

“South Korea is now our third-largest market behind only the U.S. and China, serving as validation of our competitive positioning in a robust EV market.”

And an update on onshoring efforts:

“We expect our lithium refinery in Texas to begin production in Q4 2025 and our LFP lines in Nevada to begin production Q1 2026.”

There is also the question how much of an anomaly the 3Q was, with record deliveries highly impacted by a rush of consumers before federal tax credits expired. Tesla’s acknowledging near the top of the PR that the environment is changing for them and they are beholden to factors outside of their control:

“While we face near-term uncertainty from shifting trade, tariff and fiscal policy, we are focused on long-term growth and value creation. We are prudently making the necessary investments in our business, including future business lines, that we believe will drive incredible value for Tesla and the world across transport, energy and robotics”

Yes, Tesla specifically called out the increase in tariffs leading to a dent in profitability when describing higher average costs per vehicle.

Which leads us to the outlook… which doesn’t say much:

“It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services. While we are making prudent investments that will set up our vehicle, energy and other future businesses for growth, the actual results will depend on a variety of factors, including the broader macroeconomic environment, the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts and production ramp at our factories.”

A quick look at the cash flow and the near record FCF, which was significantly better than expected, at $4 billion far above the consensus print of $1.25 billion, Tesla attributed the performance to record vehicle deliveries in the period, and record energy deployments. 

“In Q3, the Tesla team achieved record vehicle deliveries globally, showing strength and growth across all regions, while also achieving record energy storage deployments across the residential, industrial and utility sectors. This strong performance resulted in both record revenue and free cash flow generation in the quarter.”

Not surprisingly, the tax-credit expiration led to an EV buying spree which allowed Tesla to clear virtually all the excess vehicles produced in the first half of the year during the third quarter. The results was a massive, one-off working capital release of $2.1 billion, teeing up the big free cash flow of $3.99 billion.

Turning to energy, Tesla disclosed that revenue from energy and storage revenue jumped 44% from a year ago, far eclipsing the 6% increase from autos. That comes from residential, industrial and utility storage. The company is also leaning back toward solar leasing. The appeal of leases: They still qualify for tax credits after President Donald Trump ended some federal renewable incentives. The company says its new solar-and-Powerwall lease “will help drive incremental demand” for its residential-energy products. Still, Tesla didn’t disclose its 3Q solar deployments. It hasn’t done so in several quarters.

All in all, the stocks kneejerked lower, bounced, and is once again sliding as markets focus on the EPS miss, the drop in profits and the neutered guidance.

Authored by Noi Mahoney via FreightWaves.com,

Cargo theft across North America is rapidly evolving from traditional trailer break-ins to sophisticated digital fraud schemes that use artificial intelligence, social engineering and marketplace reselling to move stolen goods faster than ever before, experts told FreightWaves.

“Criminals have realized they can commit theft without ever touching the freight,” Danny Ramon, director of intelligence and response at supply chain risk firm Overhaul told FreightWaves.

“They’re lowering their physical risk and scaling operations digitally — sometimes pulling off multiple thefts a day.”

Ramon said organized cargo networks are increasingly adopting AI-generated voices and synthetic identities to bypass verification calls or create fake carrier profiles. 

“AI, just like it is in the business world, is a force multiplier in the criminal world as well,” Ramon said.

“Unfortunately, it’s adding efficiency, it’s sometimes the appearance of legitimacy, especially to social engineering and phishing attacks. AI now is making these things messages … not only grammatically perfect, if need be, but maybe just imperfect enough to sound like a person.”

The digital shift mirrors a broader trend noted by Descartes’ account executive Danielle Spinelli, who is known in the freight industry as the “Fraud Girl” and hosts the Tell Me Everything podcast.

“I’ve heard of brokerages getting phone calls from AI bots on the carrier side — they’re trying not to sound Middle Eastern or raise red flags, just to sound like a typical call,” Spinelli said.

“If you’re dispatching, ask drivers real-time questions — like about the weather or their surroundings — instead of routine ones, because that’s what the bots are programmed to answer.”

Cargo thefts in the U.S. increased 33% year-over-year in the second quarter to 525 incidents, according to Overhaul’s Q2-2025 cargo theft report. 

Criminals targeted California (38% of all cases during the quarter), Texas (21%), Tennessee (15%), Pennsylvania (10%) and Illinois (7%). The areas around Los Angeles and Long Beach accounted for 36% of all cargo theft cases in the U.S. during the quarter.

Top commodities targeted by thieves in the quarter included electronics, food and beverage products and home appliances.

Low-risk, high-reward — and powered by social media

Both experts warned that freight crime has become more agile thanks to online reselling channels such as Facebook Marketplace, TikTok Shop, and small pop-up stores.

“There’s now a criminal direct-to-consumer pipeline by way of e-tail websites and social media marketplaces where whatever these cargo thieves are stealing, they’re reaping 100% of the sale price,” Ramon said.

On Oct. 2, authorities in Los Angeles arrested Adeel Shams, founder of popular sneaker resale platform CoolKicks, after discovering more than $500,000 in stolen Nike goods during a raid at the company’s Santa Monica warehouse. Following Shams arrest, CoolKicks issued a statement saying they had no knowledge that the Nike products were stolen goods when they purchased them.

Trending consumer products — from energy drinks to sneakers — are also top targets, Ramon added.

“Anything going viral on TikTok will get targeted,” Ramon said. “It’s no longer about cost density; it’s about how fast they can liquidate the load.”

Spinelli said even low-value loads like bottled water or Kraft mac and cheese have become training exercises for newer fraudsters.

“Some of the things happening is they’re making the new guys that are getting in the fraud game handle those low, lower risk ones because those are easier to train on,” she said. “I think then as they kind of get trained up, then they go after the big things.”

Holiday hotspots and a Mexico shift

Overhaul’s data shows theft spikes each holiday season near major intermodal hubs — including Southern California, Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, Atlanta, Memphis, and the Northeast corridor. 

“Distribution centers are packed right now, and that’s when security corners get cut,” Ramon said.

Ramon noted rising theft and violence in Mexico’s freight corridors, especially in Puebla, which recently surpassed the State of Mexico as the top cargo-theft state.

“Cartel groups centralized control there, and now we’re seeing more violence at the start of thefts rather than just threats,” he said.

A growing cost to the industry

While cargo theft still represents only a small fraction of total freight transactions, Spinelli said its financial impact is severe. 

“When companies get hit, insurance doesn’t always cover it — they pay out of pocket, and some shut down,” she said. “That cost just rolls back to the consumer.”

Both experts agreed that education and awareness — not just detection — will define the next phase of the industry’s fight against freight fraud.

“It’s a cat-and-mouse game,” Spinelli said. “The bad guys evolve fast. So the only real defense is staying one step ahead.”

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Is this scenario guaranteed? No, of course not. But that doesn’t mean it’s excluded from the realm of possibility.

We all know the end-game when currencies are inflated as an expedient measure to stave off insolvency: devaluation eventually has consequences as the debauched currency is eventually replaced, a process that wipes out everyone holding or using the devalued currency.

It’s natural to assume this is a linear process and therefore predictable, as that’s what it looks like when looking back at the broad sweep of history. But the process isn’t inherently linear; it’s non-linear as the dynamics around “money” and “risk” are emergent, meaning that the sum of the parts have qualities of their own that are not predictable.

Which brings us to the question: could the much-maligned, guaranteed-it’s-going-to-zero US dollar USD) stage a rip-your-face-off rally that wipes out those shorting the USD by generating a mad rush for scarce–yes, scarce–USD?

The Federal Reserve measures the supply of US dollars via M2: basically cash in various accounts. As you can see on the chart below, M2 Money Supply is about $22 trillion after a $6 trillion rocket-boost in the Covid stimulus phase.

That may sound like a lot, but consider the global bucket of financial assets is worth $480 trillion. Global Asset Monitor: Public (sovereign bonds, etc.) $232.4 trillion, Private (stocks, RE) $246.8 trillion: $479.2 trillion total.

So M2 Money Supply is 4.6% of global financial assets. US dollars in circulation, i.e. Federal Reserve notes/Greenbacks, is around $2.4 trillion.

The US dollars held in time deposit accounts in banks outside the US are called Eurodollars. I am not an expert on the eurodollar market, but it appears to have experienced a decline in volume since 2016. As this article from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explains, changes in banking regulations led to selected deposits on the books of US banks replacing the majority of eurodollars volume.

Who Is Borrowing and Lending in the Eurodollar and Selected Deposit Markets?

“Selected deposits are unsecured U.S. dollar deposits that also tend to have an overnight maturity, similar to Eurodollars. However, unlike Eurodollars, but like fed funds, selected deposits are booked at bank offices in the U.S.”

The conventional view is that eurodollars are advantageous because they are not regulated by US agencies or the Federal Reserve and so much of the activity is opaque, qualifying as “shadow banking.” Eurodollar Secrets: The Hidden Engine of Global Finance (tradingview.com)

“The Eurodollar system is one of the greatest financial innovations–and enigmas–of modern capitalism. Born from geopolitical necessity, it evolved into a vast offshore network that creates and circulates U.S. dollars beyond U.S. borders.

Its power lies in its invisibility: it influences global liquidity, shapes monetary policy, and fuels international trade, all without direct oversight.

However, with great power comes great risk. The Eurodollar market’s opacity and lack of regulation mean it can amplify crises when liquidity dries up.”

As I understand it, a non-US bank holding $100 million in eurodollar deposits can issue loans denominated in USD based on the USD on deposit. In this case, the quantity of USD is increased not only by the Federal Reserve or US banks but by non-banks holding eurodollars.

There were an estimated $13.8 trillion eurodollars in 2016. I haven’t found any more recent estimates that aren’t paywalled. Back of the envelope, let’s say there are around $17-$20 trillion in eurodollars floating around, which would put total USD in the global financial system around 8% ($38 trillion) or 9% ($43 trillion).

Here is the chart of M2 Money Supply, courtesy of the Federal Reserve:

Why would anyone need USD? The usual reason is to service or pay off USD-denominated debt. As credit tightens–which happens when global markets shift from risk-on to risk-off–loans denominated in USD issued by non-US banks (i.e. eurodollar credit) mature and the lender demands payment in full rather than roll the debt into a new loan.

The borrower must then buy dollars to pay off the loan. Just because there are a lot of dollars in existence doesn’t mean there are an abundance of dollars available. When a loan denominated in dollars is paid off, those USD that were borrowed into existence go to Money Heaven.

So the total supply of dollars can shrink in a risk-off crisis as loans are called and liquidated. Much of the supply of USD is tied up and not available for borrowing. In risk-off crises, dollars are hoarded, reducing the supply available for lending.

Given the enormous size of the global financial assets bucket–and the unknown but estimated to be gigantic market of USD-linked derivatives such as currency swaps–the demand for dollars could far exceed the amount available to desperate borrowers and those at the end of derivative chains that eventually lead back to some form of USD-denominated collateral.

This is one scenario for a rip-your-face-off rally in the US dollar that wipes out dollar shorts (those betting on a decline in the relative value of the USD against other currencies), bankrupts borrowers who were unable to secure enough dollars, and forces eurodollar lenders into insolvency when the USD-denominated loans they issued are not paid back.

In systems terms, a risk-off global crisis is a self-organizing criticality that can trigger a phase change much like an avalanche–a dynamic I describe in my new book Investing In Revolution:

“These dynamics of complex systems are illustrated in the Sand Pile analogy: as grains of sand drop out of a hopper, they form a pile which grows in size until it reaches a point of instability, and the sand pile collapses in an avalanche. Which grain of sand will trigger the instability cannot be predicted, and neither can the size of the avalanche.

The sand pile is an example of self-organized criticality, a self-organizing system that hovers between instability and stability. At a critical point/tipping point, a phase transition occurs–the avalanche. Avalanches / instabilities follow a power law distribution: for every 100 small avalanches, there will be 10 that are considerably larger, and one gigantic one that takes down the entire system.”

And that’s how a rip-your-face-off rally in the guaranteed-it’s-going-to-zero US dollar triggers an avalanche that topples multiple lines of dominoes stretching throughout the global financial system. All sorts of collateral would be liquidated to raise funds to buy dollars, and that’s how the world ends up with a global financial crisis few thought possible.

Is this scenario guaranteed? No, of course not. But that doesn’t mean it’s excluded from the realm of possibility.

*  *  *

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Another cockroach?

PrimaLend Capital Partners, which provides financing to auto dealerships that cater to subprime borrowers, filed for bankruptcy after months of negotiations with creditors following missed interest payments on its debt. 

Its products include financing for receivables, real estate and automobile inventory, according to its website.

This follows the sudden collapse of Tricolor (subprime auto lender) and First Brands (after-market auto parts supplier) with PrimaLend listing estimated assets and liabilities below $500 million each, according to court documents it filed in the Northern District of Texas. 

In a press release, PrimaLend said it was pursuing a sale of the business in bankruptcy court and would continue to fund and service loans to its own borrowers.

PrimaLend finances “buy here, pay here” auto dealerships, which serve low-income borrowers.

“No debt is being called due or accelerated as a result of this process,” PrimaLend’s chief executive officer, Mark Jensen, said in the release.

“We deeply value our dealer-borrower relationships and look forward to continuing to serve the buy-here-pay-here industry as we move forward.”

The company has received a commitment for bankruptcy financing to help fund operations in Chapter 11 from existing lenders, according to the release.

None of this should come as a surprise since we have seen auto loan delinquencies soar and now repossession breaking records.

Building a business on the back of lending to illegal immigrants to enable the purchase of a rapidly devaluing asset – brilliant!

There are many more dominoes left to fall (or cockroaches left to discover) in this space – the question is, will there be contagion? Even Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey chimed in this week, warning that the First Brands (and similar Tricolor) collapses could signal “much bigger financial problems” ahead.

Authored by Bryan O’Shea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bolivian President-elect Rodrigo Paz plans to tackle corruption in his country’s government using blockchain technology.

The Associated Press reported Monday that Paz defeated rival Jorge Quiroga 54.5% to 45.5% and is set to take office on Nov. 8. Paz won Sunday’s runoff on a centrist, pro-market message and inherits an economy strained by fuel shortages and a US dollar squeeze, according to the AP.

Rodrigo Paz won Bolivia’s run-off presidential election on Sunday. Source: AP

For crypto observers, Paz’s government plan includes two concrete proposals related to digital assets and blockchain.

Blockchain joins Bolivia’s reform agenda

The first is a plan to use blockchain and smart contracts in public procurement.

The Partido Demócrata Cristiano’s official 2025 government platform program pledges the application of blockchain technologies and the use of smart contracts to remove discretion from state purchasing. The proposal aims to tackle corruption in state purchasing by automating some contract processes.

The second is a program to let citizens declare crypto assets into a new foreign-exchange stabilization fund, seeded through an asset-regularization drive that explicitly lists crypto.

Such funds are reserve pools used to steady the currency and pay for essential imports when US dollars are scarce, according to the US Treasury Department. Including crypto broadens what the government can tax or quickly convert to hard currency without holding volatile tokens.

Paz looks crypto-pragmatic, but is not a Bitcoin maxi.

His platform frames blockchain as an anti-corruption tool and treats declared crypto assets as part of a one-off asset regularization push to capitalize a currency stabilization fund.

There’s no evidence yet of a policy to adopt BTC at the national level, hold it in reserves or to roll out retail legalization.

Bolivia embraces digital currency payments

Cointelegraph has tracked Bolivia’s crypto policy turn since 2024. The country’s central bank, Banco Central de Bolivia, lifted an operational ban on crypto transactions in June 2024, authorizing regulated electronic channels and signaling a modernization of payments. Months later, average monthly digital asset trading doubled versus the prior 18-month average, the bank said. 

The shift continued into the real economy. In October 2024, Banco Bisa launched USDt custody for institutions, a first mover among Bolivian banks. In March, state oil firm YPFB was reported to be exploring crypto for energy imports amid US dollar scarcity. By September, major auto brands’ local distributors, including Toyota, Yamaha and BYD accepted USDT, reflecting rising merchant-side experimentation.

On July 31, the central bank signed a memorandum with El Salvador, calling crypto a “viable and reliable alternative” to fiat and pledging cooperation on policy and intelligence tools to modernize payments and boost inclusion. The bank said monthly crypto trading volumes have reached $46.8 million per month and $294 million year-to-date by June 30.

Building on the “Are We In An iPhone Supercycle?” note we published on Tuesday, a new report from Nikkei Asia says Apple has sharply cut production of the iPhone Air due to soft demand while boosting orders for other iPhone 17 models, particularly the base and Pro versions.

Nikkei cited multiple sources with access to Apple’s supply chain and revealed on Wednesday:

The adjustment to production plans reflects both the lukewarm reception of the iPhone Air in markets outside China and unexpectedly strong demand for the iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro models. As a result, Apple is maintaining its production forecast of 85 million to 90 million units for the lineup as a whole.

Another source said the iPhone Air was initially expected to account for 10% to 15% of total production, yet orders for the “lite” version have been reduced to “near end of production levels.” Apple has reportedly slashed component and module orders, with November production volumes expected to side below 10% of September’s levels. The model’s poor demand ex-China contrasts with its solid launch there last week.

The report continued:

The model is seen as strategically paving the way for the first foldable iPhone, expected to debut in 2026, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Nikkei Asia earlier reported that Apple has high hopes for the launch of such a phone next year.

While the iPhone Air has been a disappointment, demand for the iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro has exceeded expectations. Two sources said this robust demand prompted Apple to increase production orders for the baseline iPhone 17 by about 5 million units and to boost orders for the iPhone 17 Pro.

In the U.S. this week, the average wait time for an iPhone 17 with 256 gigabytes of storage is about two to three weeks, and about one to two weeks for the iPhone 17 Pro, while there is no wait time for the lite version.

Dropped my iPhone Air… glass is fine but dented the titanium! pic.twitter.com/S76IR8tnF4

— Max Weinbach (@MaxWinebach) October 21, 2025

On Tuesday, a team of Goldman analysts led by Michael Ng told clients that iPhone 17 demand is tracking ahead of the iPhone 16 series, supported by longer lead times, higher production builds, and positive carrier feedback.

Important:

This prompted Ng to ask clients: “Are we in an iPhone supercycle?”

For more details on iPhone demand, ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note here.

In 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address bragged about “toughest sanctions the world has ever seen” against Russia which she claimed at the time, “Russia’s financial sector is on life-support. We have cut off three quarters of Russia’s banking sector from international markets” and “The Russian military is taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their military hardware, because they ran out of semiconductors. Russia’s industry is in tatters.” 

Give von der Leyen’s speech a quick listen. 

In true meme fashion, the best way to mock left-wing Brussels elites might be with a classic “How it started vs. How it’s going” – only this time, it’s not Russia in trouble, but rather von der Leyen may have spoken a little too soon. Memes are still legal in the U.S…

German tabloid newspaper Bild reports that Volkswagen is preparing to suspend production of one of its most popular models, the Golf, at its Wolfsburg factory today. The Tiguan and other models will follow this, as the worsening semiconductor shortage begins to send shockwaves across the European auto sector. 

As explained by the German media outlet, the missing Chinese chips are due to the “supply stoppage of Nexperia chips.” 

Here is more color on the situation:

In addition to the Golf and Tiguan, the Touran and Tayron are also manufactured in Wolfsburg.

The reason for the production suspension: a supply stoppage of Nexperia chips. The Nijmegen-based semiconductor manufacturer is at the center of a dispute between China and the United States. Under pressure from the US government, the Dutch government took control of Nexperia; in response, Beijing banned the export of Nexperia chips from the People’s Republic.

Nexperia also produces in Europe, but the majority of its chips come from China. VW apparently has no alternative at the moment. Semiconductors from other manufacturers would first have to be tested and certified, company sources said.

The chip crisis could affect not only VW but also the entire automotive industry and even other sectors. Spokespersons for BMW, Mercedes, and Daimler emphasized that the situation is being analyzed. Production at the companies is currently still running.

Production line stoppages will likely impact tens of thousands of employees in Europe’s largest economy. Other automakers like BMW, Mercedes, and Daimler are monitoring the situation, though their production continues.

The latest developments in the Nexperia turmoil that’s now rippling through the EU auto sector:

• Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker

• Chipmaker Nexperia’s China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split

VW has no timeline for when Nexperia chip deliveries will resume. Will the Germans soon be taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to build their VWs?