Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that European security guarantees for a post-war Ukraine must include a readiness to fight Russia, The Guardian reported over the weekend.

When asked if European troops would be willing to engage with Russia militarily if it attacked Ukraine after a future peace deal, Stubb said, “That is the idea of security guarantees by definition.”

“Security guarantees in essence are a deterrent and that deterrent has to be plausible, and in order for it to be plausible it has to be strong. And that means also strategic communication, so we’re not making security guarantees into the air, but we’re making real security guarantees and Russia knows that,” the Finnish leader added.

Finland, the UK, France, and other European countries have continued to push for a European troop deployment to Ukraine despite strong objections from Moscow and the risk of nuclear war if the troops end up clashing with Russian forces.

Stubb said that it didn’t matter if Russia was against the proposed security guarantees:

“Russia has absolutely no say in the sovereign decisions of an independent nation state … So for me it’s not an issue will Russia agree or not. Of course they won’t, but that’s not the point,” Stubb said.

Stubb, who took office in 2024, was in the US last month and joined several other European leaders in an Oval Office meeting with President Trump to discuss potential security guarantees for Ukraine.

After the meeting, Trump suggested that he would be willing to back European troops on the ground in Ukraine with air power.

The insistence on a European troop deployment to Ukraine has made a peace deal unlikely, as Moscow has made clear that it’s willing to continue the war until it reaches its goals.

Weeks ago, Finland’s foreign minister provocatively spoke of Russia as a “cancer”…

Disturbing and fanatic language from Finland’s foreign minister: It’s time to “cure the cancer” of Russia pic.twitter.com/tcSVhFuELn

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) September 1, 2025

As negotiations have faltered, the US and its allies have been working to pour more weapons into the proxy war under a new NATO initiative that involves the US’s allies paying for American military equipment that will be sent to Ukraine.

Three weeks ago, just as gold finally break out above its recent resistance level, we warned readers that we are about to see a far more powerful thrust higher once gold ETFs – which had been lagging badly – started chasing.

Think the move in gold is notable? Just wait until the ETFs start chasing pic.twitter.com/SoOXEd2Hdz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2025

Fast forward to today when that’s precisely what happened, and as Bloomberg writes this morning, gold has powered to a fresh record high “after flows into exchange-traded funds hit a three-year high, with investors betting that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle has further to run.” It wasn’t just gold: silver also rose, with year-to-date gains topping 50%.

Gold was last trading at a new all time high of $3,737, building on a run of five weekly gains and extremely overbought, as the Fed cut rates and flagged further easing through to year-end.

On Friday, bullion-backed ETFs surged 0.9%, the most in percentage terms since 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gold – the year’s best performing asset class – has been on a relentless tear higher amid a broad confluence of supportive factors, most notably the Fed’s decision to restart policy easing. Additionally, central banks continuing to bolster their reserve holdings, and lingering geopolitical tensions, have provided a sustained bid for havens. Major banks including Goldman Sachs have flagged their expectations for further gains, with Deutsche Bank most recently lifting its gold forecast to $4000.

“Technicals are looking pretty strong, and expectations are rising for deeper rate cuts,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. In silver, “resistance at $43 an ounce was broken, while gold powered through $3,708 an ounce — suggesting prices will continue to push higher.”

“The gold price was overbought after climbing by more than 10% in the last five weeks,” analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals GmbH & Co KG said on Monday. “That raises the chance of a period of consolidation so the price could trade sideways to lower for a while.” Alas, gold decided it didn’t need to consolidate and has instead moved straight up. 

Silver rallied harder than gold on Monday, with some speculating that a gamma squeeze in silver options is starting to fomd. The daily volume of IShares Silver Trust options surged to 1.2 million on Friday – the highest since April 2024, with call options spiking. 

In a note published this morning from UBS’ S&T team, they write that “while it was technically New York Platinum week, gold took the gold as New York was flooded with market participants for every corner of the globe and one thing was clear, the bullish sentiment is here to stay. The demand is real and was confirmed when your strategist’s weeklong schedule fills up in a matter of hours and goes right until 17:00 New York on Friday, when in the past nobody wanted to meet on a Friday.”

As UBS’s Christine Gilfillan writes, “consensus is, gold has not seen the highs, proven yet again on Monday. There wasn’t one meeting where someone was willing to short this market. In most meetings, the level of investment has not been reached and many continue to look for a pullback for entry. The majority are looking for $4000.”

The UBS trades goes on to note that “shallow and short-lived pullbacks are frustrating during this climb higher, physical demand is absent and replaced with investor and retail demand while the Wealth Management community is actively exploring vaulting opportunities.” Meanwhile, sellers or light profit-taking that may have been seen post the Fed have taken a step back, now allowing this bull market to march on. As for the white metals, consensus was favorable as well with silver taking the lead even with its recent positive performance.

The biggest vendor financing circle jerk in world history got its latest thrust just after 12pm ET when Nvidia announced (with a CNBC film crew ready to interview Sam Altman and Jensen Huang the moment the press release hit) that it will invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI to support the building of new data centers and the infrastructure needed to power artificial intelligence workloads.

The investment is intended to help OpenAI build data centers with a capacity of 10 gigawatts of power using Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to train and deploy OpenAI’s models. 

Translation: tomorrow OpenAI will announce it will purchase $99 billion in equipment from Nvidia (while renting $1 billion in data center racks). Then one day later Nvidia will double down in its investment in OpenAI, and so on, for as long as the circle jerk keeps lifting all the AI boats floating on a sea of…er… liquidity. 

The two signed a letter of intent for a strategic deal, Nvidia said Monday in a statement. 

Nvidia will receive equity in OpenAI in the deal, according to people familiar with the arrangement. The investment will be provided in stages with the first $10 billion coming when the first gigawatt of computing power is deployed, the people said, who asked not to be identified because the talks were private.

“To support this deployment including data center and power capacity, Nvidia intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as the new Nvidia systems are deployed,” the company said in the statement.

“Everything starts with compute,” OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman said in the statement. “Compute infrastructure will be the basis for the economy of the future, and we will utilize what we’re building with Nvidia to both create new AI breakthroughs and empower people and businesses with them at scale.”

Nvidia has been using its balance sheet to make sure the company’s gear remains at the heart of the buildout of AI systems, especially at a time when China is dangerously close to releasing chip that have the same capabilities but are 90% cheaper. Keeping OpenAI, which is diving into hardware including its own chips, as a major customer may help the chipmaker cement that position as the industry looks at rivals’ components. Last week, Nvidia purchased $5 billion in Intel equity to cement its dekstop PC presence as well. 

Nvidia and OpenAI didn’t provide details on its investment in OpenAI or when it will occur. Because of course it’s easier to ramp stocks on vague promises of massive 12-digit numbers than actually describing where the funds will go. The companies said they “look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership in the coming weeks.”

With NVDA stock ominously in the red today and threatening to burst the AI bubble, the press release came strategically at just the right time to push NVDA stock up 4% and just shy of all time highs… 

… and since there is virtually no spare cash flow available to fund this latest pipe dream, and all the funding will need to come from private debt issuers, we wanted to bring you a snapshot of where the Blackstone Secured Credit fund was trading today.

Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro is desperately seeking to cool tensions with the United States, after President Trump has approved of no less than three major military strikes on alleged drug boats which departed Venezuela, and were traversing the South Caribbean. 

The letter was made public on Telegram by Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. In it Maduro vehemently denies being involved in narco-trafficking, calling the allegations “fake news, propagated through various media channels.“ The Venezuelan president further offers to engage in “a direct and frank conversation with your special envoy” – in reference to Richard Grenell, who hasn’t directly commented.

The letter was actually issued four days after the initial September 2nd US strike which killed 11 Venezuelans on a boat the US said was being used to transport drugs to the US. But it was only publicly disclosed on Sunday. More have died since then.

Given last week’s two additional strikes under similar circumstances, it seems the Trump White House did not believe Maduro’s assertions of not being involved in drug trafficking.

The letter further included Maduro explaining that he is submitting to the Trump administration “compelling data on drug production and drug trafficking … that demonstrates that Venezuela is a territory free of drug production.”

The top-level communication also featured the following claims by Maduro:

“According to UN data, only 5% of the drugs originating in Colombia transit through Venezuela.”

“This year alone, we have neutralized more than 70% of that small percentage attempting to cross our more than 2,200-kilometer border with Colombia; this is a very important figure.”

“These figures confirm Venezuela’s impeccable record in the fight against international drug trafficking, a fact recognized by all relevant international institutions and agencies.”

“I respectfully invite you, President, to promote peace through constructive dialogue and mutual understanding throughout the hemisphere,” Maduro added.

He also hailed his military and policing efforts, saying that Venezuela has destroyed over 400 aircraft linked to drug smuggling of late, and that this can be demonstrated directly to special envoy Grenell. Maduro said they should meet, “so that we can overcome media noise and fake news.”

Blackwater founder and Trump crony Erik Prince gave the order last year to raise the bounty on Maduro to $100 million, promising “magic”

His mafia backs Maria Corina Machado, who almost certainly promised to sell them Venezuela’s resources once she’s installed through force pic.twitter.com/LTBselwLrn

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 3, 2025

President Trump has yet to confirm or deny whether he had received the letter, only responding to a reporter’s question on the matter by saying “We’ll see what happens with Venezuela.”

Still, Maduro has warned that his country will defend itself against US “aggression”. His defense minister has also called what’s been happening off Venezuela’s coast “an undeclared war”.

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Taking The Average

There is an old joke in economics that if you put your feet in the oven and your head in the freezer you are, on average, at a pleasant temperature. More and more we see this dynamic in financial markets where – like deer in the headlights – wildly binary outcomes are dealt with by taking probability weighted averages of potential future states of the world. This produces prices that represent the least likely of all scenarios: a pleasant middle ground between polar extremes.

We see this effect everywhere. Changes in trade, geopolitics, capital markets, climate and demographics mean that inflation might be very high in the future – or very low. So let’s take the average and assume that inflation averages 2%. Likewise, policy rates may need to be very low to finance new investment in energy, AI, semiconductor manufacturing, military hardware, housing and infrastructure – or very high to keep inflation in check. Or maybe inflation targeting as a concept is past its sell-by date, and everything we know about how monetary policy is supposed to work is about to change as politically-favoured sectors get low rates while others get high?

Of course, the reality is that ‘low-for-some-high-for-others’ interest rates are already happening, both outside the West and in, but perhaps what we have seen so far is just a prelude of things to come as the manifold challenges faced by society raises the temptation of price discrimination and central planning?

A suggestion of this arrived last week with the publication of the Fed’s updated dot plot. The median dot suggests two more cuts to the Fed Funds rate this year, and one next year. However, an outlier dot (belonging to Stephen Miran) says 100bps worth of cuts remaining in 2025. That’s a material departure from the consensus, with attendant implications for asset prices and maybe even for the broader question of how production is organized inside the USA.

With prices of assets highly dependent on the state of the world, the theory goes that our efficient financial markets construct complete menus of Arrow securities that payout in every potential state. Prices of those securities adjust to reflect judged probabilities of scenarios occurring. The time-boundedness of events is reflected through changes in the time value of money, which is interest rates.

The theory is elegant, but does it line up with what we are seeing in reality? Perhaps it does if you are looking at gold prices making new all-time-highs and relate that to central banks de-emphasising inflation dynamics, or focusing too-intently on a narrow conception of consumer inflation that excludes the most costly thing that people want to consume: houses. Perhaps it does if you look at farmland trading at prices implying negative carry and relate that back to rising geopolitical tensions or ideas of commodity prices permanently rebasing at higher levels. Perhaps it does if you look at the Crump & Moench term premium graph and relate that back to deteriorating national fiscal positions, pressure on the Dollar and questions about its status as a global reserve currency.

But there are confounding signs, too. Why does the VIX index think it’s 1996? And why are lawyers and consultants paid more than plumbers, or welders, or carpenters? And is the probability of a state of the world where AI makes those practical skills more valuable than white-collar skills rising? NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang seems to think so, but to the extent that labor force planning occurs in the West it still emphasizes university education.

To state the obvious, the polarization trend is evident in political circles as well. Britain, Canada and Australia have today recognized a Palestinian state at the United Nations, upsetting traditional allies Israel and the United States with the former vowing reprisals in due course and Republican politicians in the latter arguing in favor of the same. Britain, Canada and Australia all currently have centre-left governments, and all have centre-right opposition parties who are critical of the decision – characterizing it as rewarding the use of violence as a means of achieving political objectives. Is there a middle ground between these viewpoints? Is an assumption of social cohesion ‘in the price’? Will the USA allow its allies to have their cake and eat it too? If not, how might that look?

The Trump administration amped-up its nationalistic labor market approach by imposing a $100k annual fee on companies applying for new H-1B visas to bring skilled workers into the country. The FT says the cost to US employers could be $14bn. The move also sets up further potential misgivings between the USA and India, which is the country of origin for more than 70% of H-1B visa holders.

In a similar vein, UK Reform party leader Nigel Farage says that a Reform government would be prepared to deport up to 600,000 migrants over the course of five years. Reform is currently leading in UK polls, so would have to be an odds-on chance to form government. Are UK gilt yields high enough yet? Does it make sense that Cable is up 7.6% YTD?

Needless to say, these are not business as usual moves. How to account for the rising probability of these events – or even more extreme events – occurring? Imagination is required to conceive of how the world might look in the future, because if the last 15 years have taught us anything its that the past is a foreign country. The assumption of mean reversion is not a favored strategy.

Earlier today, shares of Porsche AG in Germany plunged the most on record after the struggling sports car maker announced it would scale back its electric vehicle (EV) rollout. Porsche scrapped plans for a future battery-powered luxury SUV and shifted focus back to petrol-powered engines and hybrid models. This move will result in a $2.1 billion hit to operating profit and force both Porsche and its parent, Volkswagen AG, to revise their full-year forecasts.

“Markets are led lower by Autos, STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts Index [SXAP] is down 2.8%, following the two profit warnings from Porsche and Volkswagen after the close on Friday. Porsche AG is down 7.8% and Volkswagen is down 8%,” UBS analyst Marisa Vethanayagam wrote in a client update earlier. 

Friday’s profit warning marked the fourth time this year that Porsche cut guidance, with shares down 28% year-to-date. The slump has pushed the automaker so low that it is now set to be removed from the DAX, Germany’s benchmark index.

Porsche’s mounting troubles – compounded by muted EV sales in key markets and intensifying competition from Chinese automakers – are increasingly weighing on its parent, Volkswagen. On Friday, Volkswagen warned it would take a $3.5 billion non-cash impairment tied to Porsche’s hit to operating profit and lowered its forecast for operating return on sales this year to 2% to 3%, down from 5%. 

Besides Porsche and Volkswagen, other European peers, such as Stellantis NV and Renault SA, are also struggling with dismal EV demand after they invested billions of dollars in the technology. 

Industry-wide across the continent, the MSCI Europe Autos Index is down 6% year-to-date, hovering on a fine line of support around 160 euros. 

Here’s commentary from top Wall Street research desks on Porsche scaling back its EV unit, resulting in a guidance cut and dragging down peers across the continent (courtesy of Bloomberg):

RBC (Sector perform, PT EU43)

• Revisions underline significant near-term pressures, with EV platform delays and a pivot toward hybrids and combustion drivetrains signaling challenges in electrification strategy, analyst Tom Narayan writes

• Updated 2025 guidance shows sharp profitability deterioration

• Medium-term targets at the lower end of historical profitability further raise concerns about Porsche’s ability to compete effectively in the premium EV and luxury space amid intensifying competition

Jefferies (hold, PT EU40)

• Re-basing of guidance may be the last, but leaves the turnaround a drawn-out affair with product cycle and brand challenges, according to analyst Philippe Houchois

• Besides Porsche impact, VW’s guidance delays cash conversion again

• Cuts Porsche price target to €40 from €47

Citi (buy, PT EU58)

• Exceptional charges take FY25 Ebit margin guidance down from 5%-7% to between 0% and 2%, a superficial and unacceptable level of margin for the Porsche brand, analyst Harald Hendrikse writes

• Management reiterated this would be the last such re- statement, but investors have heard this story before and will remain skeptical until Porsche stops delivering negative surprises

• Shares likely to remain subdued as they have been

Matthias Schmidt, an independent auto analyst based near Hamburg, told Bloomberg that auto buyers “are putting little value on luxury electric cars,” adding, “Porsche has now realized this and is jumping back into high-margin combustion-engine models.”

Related: 

• US Electric Vehicle Adoption Plummets

• Nearly Half Of US EV Drivers Consider Switching Back To Gas Vehicles: McKinsey Study

Not surprising…

. . .

Update (1035 ET):

President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order this week that will approve the sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations to an investor consortium, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz, according to Bloomberg, citing a White House official. 

Key points from the call:

• The order will formally declare that the deal meets U.S. national security requirements.

• Trump will also extend the existing TikTok pause by 20 days.

• The transaction is expected to close within 120 days of signing.

Earlier:

• Oracle will retrain the TikTok algorithm and safeguard U.S. user data. 

• Six of the seven board seats in the new U.S. entity will be held by Americans.

• Oracle reshuffled leadership Monday, naming Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, replacing Safra Catz, with no explanation or link to the TikTok deal.

*   *   * 

TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, will create a duplicate algorithm and lease it to a new U.S. entity controlled by an investor consortium including Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz, Bloomberg reported, citing a White House official. Oracle will retrain the algorithm and safeguard U.S. user data. In addition, six of the seven board seats in the new entity will be held by Americans, as the structure for U.S. control of TikTok takes shape.

The arrangement, outlined by a White House official in a statement on Monday, ensures that Oracle will retrain and operate the algorithm “from the ground up.” At the same time, ByteDance will have no access to U.S. user data or influence on the algorithm.

“Oracle, the U.S. security partner, will operate, retrain, and continuously monitor the U.S. algorithm to ensure content is free from improper manipulation or surveillance,” according to a Q&A accompanying the White House official’s comments.

President Trump is set to sign an executive order this week to formalize his approval of the transaction. He expressed confidence in all parties last week, saying, “I had a great call with President Xi, and as you know, I approved the TikTok deal, and we’re in the process. We look forward to getting that deal closed.” His remarks came shortly after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.

The current plan wouldn’t require users to re-download the app, which would continue to work with TikTok outside the country.  

On Saturday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that Americans would hold six of the seven board seats for TikTok (read report) and, more importantly, that the app’s insanely addictive algorithm would be US-controlled. She noted that the deal would be signed in the coming days.

🚨 @PressSec @karolineleavitt with news on exactly what the TikTok deal will look like.

Saturday In America w/ Kayleigh McEnany @FoxNews ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/dgweGBcEOY

— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) September 20, 2025

The American board members will be lined with those who have national security and cybersecurity credentials, while the remaining board member, appointed by current owner ByteDance, will be excluded from the security committee, according to a senior White House official.  

“So all of those details have already been agreed upon, now we just need this deal to be signed and that will be happening, I anticipate, in the coming days,” Leavitt said. 

On Sunday, Trump told the hosts of Fox News’ “The Sunday Briefing” that Fox Chairman Lachlan Murdoch and his father Rupert will likely be involved in the U.S. TikTok deal.

In a separate report from The Wall Street Journal, Rupert Murdoch told executives working on the TikTok deal that he wanted to own a small stake in the U.S.-based company.

Nearly a week ago, it was revealed that Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz will control the U.S. entity and app used by 170 million Americans. Some national security experts have warned that TikTok is highly addictive and represents another domain of hybrid warfare by China. 

Furthermore, Oracle announced a leadership shakeup on Monday morning, promoting Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia to CEO roles, replacing Safra Catz. The move splits leadership. There was no explanation as to why Catz was pushed aside, or whether it was related to the upcoming TikTok deal.

Following President Javier Milei’s comments on Friday that the market was in “panic mode“, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said “all options” are on the table for the Trump administration to support Argentina through this bout of severe market volatility.

The country has already spent more than $1 billion to defend the peso out of its scarce international reserves.

The two countries are in talks this week – Milei and US President Donald Trump will meet Tuesday – and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on social media earlier that the US is ready to do whatever it takes to support Argentina.

That includes direct currency purchases as well as swap lines and purchases of dollar-denominated government debt.

Bessent called the South American country “a systemically important US ally in Latin America,” adding that the US Treasury “stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table.”

He said that options for a support package “may include, but are not limited to, swap lines, direct currency purchases, and purchases of US dollar-denominated government debt from Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund”.

The comments sent Argentine stocks soaring…

…and the peso ripped…

Argentina’s dollar bonds due in 2029 and 2035 rallied by 5 to 6 cents in the dollar to 70 and 53 cents respectively after Bessent’s comments.

As Bloomberg reports, it’s not impossible he can recover from here, especially with the support of the US and International Monetary Fund, but the key test will be next month’s midterm elections.

The possibility of a defeat for his cost-cutting government in October is what has spooked the market. Argentina’s friends can help it prop up the currency, but they can’t help Milei keep the support of voters.

It’s a relatively quiet week. According to DB’s Henry Allen, the data highlight this week will be Friday’s US core PCE deflator which should print softer than feared a few weeks ago given the recent inputs from other inflation releases. The main events outside of this will be a series of Fed speakers (at least 16 this week, with 4 on deck today) who can give their own spin on a complicated FOMC last week where the dots were a little all over the place. The global flash PMIs tomorrow will be the other main highlight but its not likely to be a major mover with most main economies seemingly fairly stable at the moment.

Friday’s personal income (+0.3% est. vs. +0.4% last) and consumption (+0.5% vs. +0.5%) data will include the all-important core PCE deflator which DB expects to come in at a relatively tame +0.22% vs. +0.27% last time. Thursday sees the final print on Q2 GDP (3.3% final vs. 3.3% prelim) and will also feature the annual update to the national accounts in which the BEA incorporates more complete and detailed source data covering the prior five years, allowing for revisions. So, another chance for history to be rewritten. Other notable US releases will include tomorrow’s existing home sales; Wednesday’s new home sales; Thursday’s durable goods orders, and the advanced trade balance; and Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

In terms of those Fed speakers this week, we’ll highlight the current voters. Today kicks off with Williams who should mirror the views of Powell last week. Musalem will also give an outlook speech later and new Governor Miran will be on the tapes with his thoughts likely to be fascinating to hear. Tomorrow, Chair Powell will give an outlook speech which will likely be similar to his FOMC rhetoric. Governor Bowman will also speak. Thursday sees Goolsbee, Williams, Governors Bowman and Barr, and Daly who votes next year. Governor Bowman also speaks on Friday. As DB’s economists point out, the Supreme Court has asked Governor Cook to respond by Thursday to President Trump’s appeal, which seeks to overturn lower court rulings preventing her immediate removal from office.

Trump will likely be in the news earlier in the week as he addresses the 80th UN General Assembly in New York tomorrow. We’ll also get a better idea of where we are with US exceptionalism on Friday with the Ryder Cup starting in New York. It will also be interesting to see the reaction from corporate America to Trump’s weekend plans to impose a $100,000 application fee for the widely used H-1B visa for foreign workers in speciality occupations. It’s caused a huge amount of uncertainty over the weekend for those that rely on it.

Outside of the US, Sweden (tomorrow) and Switzerland (Thursday) central banks are meeting with markets pricing in a 30% chance of a cut from the Riksbank, but with only a 4% chance for the SNB. A cut for the Swiss would lead the country back into negative rate territory if it did happen. Staying in Europe, sentiment gauges out include the Ifo survey in Germany on Wednesday as well as consumer confidence across major European economies, including Germany and France on Thursday.

Elsewhere, rounding out notable data releases, highlights include the Tokyo CPI for September in Japan and the July GDP report in Canada both on Friday, as well as the August CPI in Australia on Wednesday. For the Tokyo CPI, economists see an acceleration in core inflation ex. fresh food to 2.8% YoY (2.5% in August) and a slowdown in core-core inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.9% (3.0%).

Below is the day-by-day calendar for the full week ahead, courtesy of DB.

Monday September 22

• Data: US August Chicago Fed national activity index, Eurozone September consumer confidence, Canada August industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: Fed’s Williams, Musalem, Hammack, Miran and Barkin speak, ECB’s Lane and Nagel speak, BoE’s Bailey and Pill speak, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates

Tuesday September 23

• Data: US, UK, Germany, France and the Eurozone September PMIs, US September Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Q2 current account balance
• Central banks: Fed’s Powell, Bowman and Bostic speak, ECB’s Muller, Kocher and Cipollone speak, BoE’s Pill speaks, Riksbank decision
• Earnings: Micron
• Auctions: US 2-year Notes ($69bn)

Wednesday September 24

• Data: US August new home sales, Japan September PMIs, Germany September Ifo survey, Australia August CPI 
• Central banks: Fed’s Daly speaks, BoE’s Greene speaks
• Auctions: US 2-year FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-year Notes ($70bn)

Thursday September 25

• Data: US August durable goods orders, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, existing home sales, September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Japan August PPI services, Germany October GfK consumer confidence, France September consumer confidence, EU27 August new car registrations, Eurozone August M3
• Central banks: Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr, Logan and Daly speak, ECB’s economic bulletin, BoJ’s minutes of the July meeting, SNB decision
• Earnings: Costco, Accenture 
• Auctions: US 7-year Notes ($44bn)

Friday September 26

• Data: US August PCE, personal income and spending, September Kansas City Fed services activity, Japan September Tokyo CPI, Italy September consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Canada July GDP 
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin and Bowman speak, ECB’s August consumer expectations survey

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Thursday and core PCE inflation on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Fed Chair Powell on Tuesday and New York Fed President Williams on Monday

Monday, September 22 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 09:45 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy frameworks organized by the European Money and Finance Forum. Q&A is expected. On September 4, Williams said, “The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance has been modestly restrictive…, [and] this policy stance is appropriate given that inflation has remained above our 2 percent target while the labor market has been generally consistent with maximum employment.”
• 10:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give remarks on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at an event hosted by Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Following his remarks, he will be interviewed by David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center. Q&A is expected. On September 3, Musalem said, “Recent data have further increased my perception of downside risks to the labor market…, [and] looking ahead, I expect the labor market to gradually cool and remain near full employment with risks tilted to the downside.”
• 12:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will host an event at the Cleveland Fed headquarters to discuss the functions of Federal Reserve Banks, the state of the economy, and ways Reserve Banks engage with the public. The event will be livestreamed. On August 22, Hammack said, “We are only very modestly restrictive, [and] we are at a very small distance to getting to a neutral rate.” She also noted, “We need to be cautious about removing that restriction.”
• 12:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on the economy at the Howard County Chamber of Commerce in Maryland. Q&A is expected. On August 12, Barkin said, “Job gains have slowed recently, which is certainly worth watching. But I’m hopeful that even as businesses face cost and price pressure, they’ll largely avoid the type of large layoffs that would spike unemployment.”
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will speak at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Q&A is expected. On September 19, Miran said, “In my opinion, being so far above neutral means monetary policy is quite restrictive, and the longer it provides that level of restriction with the labor market having done what it did last year and the first half of this year, the greater the risks that we start to miss on the employment side of the mandate.”

Tuesday, September 23 

• 09:00 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention on the economic outlook. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On August 4, Bowman said, “I believe that beginning to move our policy rate at a gradual pace toward its neutral level will help maintain the labor market near full employment and ensure smooth progress toward achieving our dual mandate.” She also noted, “My Summary of Economic Projections includes three cuts for this year, which has been consistent with my forecast since last December, and the latest labor market data reinforce my view.”
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, September preliminary (consensus 51.7, last 53.0) 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, September preliminary (consensus 53.9, last 54.5) 
• 10:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak on the economic outlook on a Macro Musings podcast live recording. Q&A is expected. On September 3, Bostic said, “I continue to believe that the effects of tariffs on consumer prices won’t fade fast, and in fact will not fully materialize for some months.” He also noted, “These [inflation] numbers give me pause, [and] I will not be complacent and simply assume expectations will remain anchored and another inflation outbreak won’t happen.”
• 12:35 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Crowne Plaza Hotel in Rhode Island. Speech text and Q&A are expected. During the FOMC press conference on Wednesday, Powell said, “We see that the labor market is softening and we don’t need it to soften anymore, and we don’t want it to.” Powell characterized the policy decision at the September FOMC meeting as “a risk management cut” in response to downside risks in the labor market.

Wednesday, September 24 

• 10:00 AM New home sales, August (GS -1.5%, consensus -0.3%, last -0.6%) 
• 04:10 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver keynote remarks on the outlook for the economy at the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation at the University of Utah’s School of Business. After her remarks, she will join Kurt Dirks, Dean of the David Eccles School of Business, for a conversation. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On August 29, Daly said, “It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy.” She also noted, “I think tariff-related price increases will be a one-off, [and] it will take time before we know that for certain, but we can’t wait for perfect certainty without risking harm to the market.”

Thursday, September 25 

• 08:20 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak in a moderated discussion at Crain’s Power Breakfast about the Fed and the economy, focusing on trends for West Michigan. On September 5, Goolsbee said, “[Concerning] this slowdown in aggregate jobs numbers, we have to be extremely careful taking that as an indicator of the business cycle when things like immigration, labor supply, and labor force participation are moving behind the scenes.” He also noted, “We put a note of unease in the [July] CPI and PPI reports, with inflation kicking up in categories that are not obviously going to be transitory, which is to say services inflation.”
• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, August (GS -$92.0bn, consensus -$96.0bn, last -$102.8bn) : We forecast that goods trade balance narrowed from -$102.8bn to -$92.0bn in August, reflecting declines in gold imports and imports from Southeast Asian countries.
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, August preliminary (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 third release (GS +3.4%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.3%); Personal consumption, Q2 third release (GS +1.9%, consensus +1.9%, last +1.6%): We estimate a 0.1pp upward revision to Q2 GDP growth to +3.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting upward revisions to consumer spending (+0.3pp to +1.9%), business fixed investment, and net exports. The third release of Q2 GDP will coincide with the 2025 annual update to the National Economic Accounts, which incorporates source data that are more complete than those previously available and methodological changes.
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, August preliminary (GS -1.5%, consensus -0.3%, last -2.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August preliminary (GS flat, consensus -0.2%, last +1.0%); Core capital goods orders, August preliminary (GS flat, consensus -0.1%, last +1.1%); Core capital goods shipments, August preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 1.5% in the preliminary August report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a decline in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast unchanged core capital goods orders—reflecting an improvement in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys in August but potential payback for the outsized increase in the prior month—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the increase in orders in the prior month.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 20 (GS 230k, consensus 235k, last 231k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 13 (consensus 1,938k, last 1,920k)
• 09:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give welcoming remarks at the New York Fed’s Fourth Annual International Roles of the US Dollar Conference.
• 09:00 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas. On August 21, Schmid said, “I think we are in a good place [with policy] and we have to be careful with what lowering short-term rates would do to the inflation mentality if inflation is running closer to 3% than to 2%.” He also noted, “While it is true that payroll growth was weak over the summer, a broader set of indicators suggest a labor market that is in balance.”
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, August (GS -2.5%, consensus -1.3%, last +2.0%)
• 10:00 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will participate in a moderated discussion at the 2025 Financial Markets Quality Conference hosted by the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy at Georgetown University. Q&A is expected.
• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak at the Peterson Institute for International Economics on bank stress testing and potential reforms. Q&A is expected.
• 01:40 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at a panel organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Q&A is expected.
• 03:30 PM San Francisco Fed Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed Mary Daly will sit down with Mark Packard, President and CEO of the Central Bank of Utah, for a conservation on her economic outlook at the San Francisco Fed’s 2025 Western Bankers Forum. Q&A is expected.

Friday, September 26 

• 08:30 AM Personal income, August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Core PCE price index, August (GS +0.21%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (YoY), August (GS +2.92%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%); PCE price index, August (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PCE price index (YoY), August (GS +2.72%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.6%): We estimate that both personal income and personal spending increased by 0.4% in August. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.21% in August, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.92%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.25% in August, or increased 2.72% from a year earlier.
• 09:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a fireside chat to discuss the US economic outlook. Q&A is expected.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September final (GS 55.0, consensus 55.4, last 55.4): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, September final (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)
• 01:00 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a speech on the approach to monetary policy decision-making at the Cornell Club of New York. Q&A is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

TL;DR:

When Coinbase acquired One River Digital nearly three years ago, I had to learn a new language. Pretty much every internal memo I received started with TL;DR which meant nothing to me. I would’ve asked ChatGPT but it didn’t yet exist. Google said it meant “too long; didn’t read”, which also made little sense. I guess it’s some kind of slang that precedes a short paragraph that summarizes a longer article you probably won’t read. I had to learn all sorts of other new things at Coinbase, some annoying, others eye-opening, fascinating, exhilarating. 

If you think you can make a lot of money without learning all sorts of new and perplexing things,here’s a helpful TL;DR: Think again. So, here’s an example of the kind of TL;DR that comes across my feed and gets me super excited. This from the Coinbase blog on Sept 16th. TL;DR: Agents can already talk to each other. And now, with x402 within Google’s new AP2, they can pay each other too. Stablecoins make this possible at the speed of code, unlocking micropayments and new models of automation that legacy rails simply can’t support.

25-year-old Coinbase engineers with IQ’s one order of magnitude higher than mine read that TL;DR and read no further. I need to dig deeper [read here]. I ask Grok to teach me all about the meaning of x402,its origin,and Google’s AP2. Each question leads to another. Eventually I wrap my head around it. So, here’s my TL;DR: Coinbase, Google and numerous others have teamed up to build payment rails that allow Autonomous AI Agents (Agents) to instantly transact at vast scale, without the need for banks, using stablecoins on blockchain rails. 

It doesn’t take a wild imagination to picture a world where AI Agents are acting on our behalf in ways that simplify our daily lives, and make the economy far more productive, efficient, prosperous. The scale of what is coming is far beyond the ability of banks and the incumbent payment infrastructure to handle. When I entered crypto 5yrs ago, blockchain infrastructure wouldn’t have been able to handle what is coming either. But if you squinted, you could see speeds rising, scale expanding, costs falling. That’s what an opportunity looks like. 

From the “didn’t read” body of the blogpost, this caught my eye: When Base launched, our priority was clear: To build a secure, low-cost, developer-friendly chain and ecosystem. This year, we’ve achieved our north star of sub-second, sub-cent transactions, and we’ve expanded beyond a chain into an open stack that makes it simple for anyone to build, trade, and earn onchain. Here’s my TL;DR: Blockchain transaction speeds (using Ethereum as the L1 and Base as the L2) have surged, costs collapsed. Expect valuable use cases to explode. 

It may not have been obvious 5yrs ago. But at this stage, with the convergence of regulatory clarity for dollar stablecoin (with more to come), scalable blockchain technology, and Autonomous AI Agents, it should be apparent that global financial infrastructure is about to undergo a once in a generation upgrade. The opportunities to build businesses and invest in the companies and tokens that will profit from this build-out should be enormous. This is the hand that we’ve been dealt. Learn the new languages required, ask a million questions, and take risk.