Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Fed Cuts Rates: Risk Management Or Mistake?

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of 2025 on Wednesday, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%. The move had been well-telegraphed, yet it still represents a notable pivot in policy focus. For much of the past two years, inflation had been the Fed’s primary concern, but this time the statement emphasized that “downside risks to employment have risen,” a shift toward the labor side of the mandate. This framing suggests the Fed is willing to risk cutting into still-sticky inflation to avoid potential damage to the job market.

Market reaction to the announcement was anything but straightforward. Immediately following the announcement, stocks whipsawed intraday before finishing mixed. Bond yields initially fell but closed firmer, with the 10-year Treasury settling near 4.07%, while the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly. But Thursday morning, stocks rebounded, supported by news that Nvidia (NVDA) would make a $5 billion investment into rival Intel (INTC) to produce AI and datacenter-related chips. However, one of the largest options expiration days on record impacted Friday. Early in the day, as options rolled, the market gave up all its early morning gains. However, mid-morning news from the White House that a deal was struck with China on TikTok sent markets rocketing back to their highs, with Apple leading the charge.

Still, the underlying question remains: is the Fed making a mistake by cutting now? On one hand, many analysts view the cut as a “risk management” maneuver designed to get slightly ahead of a potential labor market slowdown without committing to a complete easing cycle. Seema Shah, at Principal, argued the move helps “get ahead of a slowdown without overreacting,” while Gregory Faranello of AmeriVet described the strategy as a “methodical pathway down to neutral.” Brandywine’s Jack McIntyre summed up the Fed’s challenge by noting it “is in a tough spot…this was a risk-management cut.” Yet the risk is that cutting rates into an environment of still-elevated inflation, particularly if tariff-related costs eventually emerge, could push the Fed into a tough spot.

In effect, Powell’s Fed is threading a narrow needle. If the labor market weakens sharply in the months ahead, the Fed will look late rather than proactive. If growth stabilizes or re-accelerates, easing at this point could be seen as stoking “animal spirits” unnecessarily.

The market’s muted reaction in equities and a stronger dollar suggest that investors are not entirely convinced the Fed has struck the right balance.

📈Technical Backdrop

Technically, markets continue to set new all-time highs. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6652. The market continues to grind higher and is trading two standard deviations above its 50-DMA. Notably, the markets have continued to push higher, driven by the Mega Cap names, but small and mid-cap stocks have also continued to post stellar gains over the last two months. The signs of a FOMO chase are evident, particularly in heavily shorted names and retail favorites. As Goldman Sachs noted in its latest weekly report, odd lots, or transactions with fewer than 100 shares of stock and a proxy for retail trading, just hit 66% of all US equity trades in Q3. That is up from only 31% in January 2019, representing more than 20% of notional volume and 8% of total executed shares!

Volatility remains unusually low. The VIX is trading around 15.6, placing it in the bottom decile of recent history. Such a backdrop is consistent with “buy-the-dip” psychology but leaves little margin for error heading into a heavy options expiration. Dealer positioning could easily magnify swings if the market breaks its tight range.

Breadth continues to be a key concern. While Wednesday’s action favored financials and cyclicals, mega-cap technology remains the dominant driver of the indices through week’s end. There were also several unusual dynamics worth highlighting. First, the negative divergence remains concerning. Historically, such divergences tend to precede short-term corrective periods. While such a correction has not occurred as of yet, it doesn’t mean that it won’t. Secondly, the deviation from the 50-dma is getting rather extreme, and also argues for at least a breather in the current advance. While none of this is bearish, it does suggest near-term risk management may be beneficial.

Support and Resistance Levels: The S&P 500’s near-term support lies at the 20-day moving average (~6,524). The 50-day moving average is roughly in the ~6,420 region but there is deeper support near ~6,200, connected with the previous pullback. Resistance is around the most recent highs in the 6,700 area (2- 3 standard deviations above the 50-DMA). Notably, volatility (as measured by VIX) remains relatively subdued. The 200-day moving average remains key support for a more significant correction. (~6000)

In short, the technical backdrop remains supportive of risk-taking. Still, with low volatility, sticky long yields, and fragile breadth, the setup argues for tighter risk management heading into next week’s data calendar.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Next week, a data-heavy slate will be delivered that will likely determine whether the Fed’s risk-management cut is validated or questioned. Investors will get early snapshots of September activity through the S&P Global flash PMIs, fresh readings on housing and durable goods, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP, including revisions to corporate profits. The week ends with the release of August personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. With Powell explicitly tying policy to labor market risks, these reports will be scrutinized for confirmation that the economy is slowing enough to warrant the cut, or whether inflationary pressures continue complicating the picture.

These data releases will be the first real-world test of whether the Fed’s pivot was well-timed. Stronger-than-expected activity or stubborn inflation would raise doubts about the wisdom of cutting now, while weaker labor and consumption data would justify the Fed’s emphasis on risk management. Either way, markets are entering a period where every data point has the potential to shift policy expectations sharply.

💰 Bull Market Run – How We Got Here

Markets have posted a powerful rally since the early April lows. That turning point marked a shift in sentiment, policy expectations, and risk appetite as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record levels. The market surge has prompted investors to move aggressively into risk assets across the market spectrum. With sentiment elevated and concerns about risk non-existent, the fuel for the rally has come from three primary sources:

• Expectations of interest rate cuts,

• Easing geopolitical pressures, and;

• Continued speculation around artificial intelligence.

Simultaneously, as discussed last week, the April jobs report showed a softening in labor market conditions, leading economic indicators remain weak, and consumption signals are becoming increasingly more bearish. While this “bad news” gives the Federal Reserve cover to cut rates, that bad news will eventually be reflected in earnings and valuations. Furthermore, while inflation data has moderated, which fed into the narrative that rate hikes were over, the bond market responded by pricing multiple rate cuts over the coming quarters as economic growth slows. Investors cheer lower Fed rates since they reduce the discount rate on future cash flows, lifting valuations, particularly in growth and tech sectors. However, revenues are at risk of slowing with the economy. As I posted on “X” last week:

“The big risk to the current market environment is that while #margins have remained strong for the last couple of years, it is unlikely they can remain detached from underlying economic activity indefinitely. Cost cutting, layoffs, and productivity enhancements are limited in scope.”

Nonetheless, the narrative of monetary easing has become a cornerstone of the current bull market.

As such, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade has returned with full force, with Mega-cap tech stocks seeing strong inflows. Nvidia, Microsoft, and other leaders in the AI space, who posted strong Q2 results, continue to see expectations increase.

“Wall Street analysts have increased estimates for Q3 and Q4 2025 and Q1 and Q2 2026. As a result, analysts now expect the S&P to post record earnings every quarter over the next year.

According to Data Trek: ‘Positive S&P 500 earnings revisions are very uncommon unless the US economy is coming out of a recession, so the Street’s recent bullishness on future index earnings is nothing short of remarkable.‘”

It is important to note that those forward expectations of record profits are not uncommon. Wall Street analysts are always overly optimistic, and expectations seldom align with reality. However, these bullish drivers have also created imbalances and overbought conditions, as I noted in Wednesday’s #DailyMarketCommentary:

“The market is overbought and should not be surprising given the run since the late March and early April correction. However, as noted previously, that run has been predominantly concentrated in the largest market-capitalization names, as noted by the divergence between the equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted S&P 500 Index.”

“The performance spread between the two indices can help us visualize the breadth differential in the market better. While the current performance differential is noteworthy, it does not mean the market is set for a significant bear market, but it does argue for some caution.”

Most importantly, however, typically non-correlated assets have rallied together over the last five years. The Nasdaq is up 129%, and the S&P is higher by 113%, followed by gold (90%), small caps (69%), gold miners (84%), international (64%), and emerging markets (32%). While it has been a good investing market for virtually any asset class you want to throw money at, it is now extremely overbought and leaves investors vulnerable to a correction that could simultaneously impact every asset class.

While the clear winner over the last five years has been to chase technology stocks or large-cap stocks in general, the build-up of complacency and deviations from long-term means is a risk worth considering. As noted, from a technical perspective, overbought conditions exist on multiple levels, from relative strength to momentum to deviations from long-term means. These technical warning signs often precede periods of consolidation or correction.

With investor sentiment nearing more exuberant levels, such extremes rarely last without a reset. The risk now is that the bullish narrative is fully priced in, and the room for upside surprises has narrowed, particularly in the AI trade itself.

The AI Trade — Strengths, Risks, and Overextension

Artificial intelligence has captured Wall Street’s imagination. The investment thesis is clear: AI will reshape industries, generate new efficiencies, and create trillion-dollar opportunities. Companies with exposure to AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and data centers are the primary beneficiaries. Unsurprisingly, investors have responded by concentrating capital in a narrow group of stocks, driving valuations higher and fueling the current rally. The chart below shows the Global X Artificial Intelligence ETF (AIQ), sporting overbought conditions not seen since just before the April “Liberation Day” sell-off.

However, the AI story is not without merit. Revenue growth in cloud infrastructure, chip design, and data services continues. Oracle recently reported a strong demand for AI workloads, while Nvidia’s earnings have validated the explosive demand for computing power. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are building out AI capabilities at scale, and those developments should support the bullish thesis in the long term. However, markets rarely move in a straight line, and the risks are now building that expectations will likely be ahead of future realities.

That last sentence is the most important. AI space valuation is stretched, with extreme forward earnings multiples for related companies. Many of these companies are priced for perfection, and any slowdown due to economic weakness, overestimated demand, or margin compression could trigger a sharp repricing. With investor positioning crowded, from hedge funds and institutions to retail investors, everyone has increased exposure to the same names. That “crowding” creates fragility where an unwind could be swift if the narrative cracks.

Another aspect is widely overlooked. Policy risk is on the rise with potential AI regulation coming. Governments worldwide are moving to address ethical, privacy, and national security concerns tied to AI development. Increased scrutiny means rising compliance costs and potential restrictions on deployment. These regulatory headwinds are not yet priced in.

The AI trade is technically extended, and overbought conditions push extremes. For example, the Nasdaq is trading well above key moving averages, breadth within tech is narrow, and several key stocks show signs of exhaustion. In the S&P 500, the index is pushing the top of the long-term price trend channel, the deviation from the 4-year moving average is extreme, and relative strength is overbought on a monthly basis. Previous such conditions have not led to bullish outcomes.

The risk of a rotation or correction is high, and investors must distinguish between long-term structural trends and short-term speculative excess. Right now, both are in play. The challenge is managing exposure without chasing the last leg of a crowded trade.

Gold & Gold Miners Go Parabolic

As noted above, another warning sign of the speculative market chase is that gold and gold miners, not typically associated with speculative rallies, are in a speculative melt-up. Historically, gold is a hedge against market stress, inflation, or currency debasement. Yet this year, gold has rallied alongside equities, technology stocks, and bitcoin. That correlation is unusual and speaks to the broader theme of bullish exuberance. The chase for returns has spilled into every market corner, even in traditionally defensive assets that are now caught in the same speculative undertow.

Gold has reached all-time highs, fueled by central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and a softening dollar. Real yields have edged lower, and inflation expectations remain elevated. These factors support the gold narrative. A higher negative correlation exists between the US dollar and gold prices. This makes sense as when the dollar declines, foreign central banks holding U.S. dollars as reserves shift into gold, which trades in dollars, to offset the currency risk. That also works in reverse. Investors should pay close attention to the dollar as an eventual reversal will be key.

But the move in gold miners has been even more aggressive. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), a proxy for gold miners, has surged nearly 100% off its lows. That’s not typical behavior for a sector known for volatility and operational risk. Previous moves that have elicited such extreme overbought conditions have historically been closer to a peak of the advance than not.

Miners benefit from rising gold prices, but their earnings are tied to cost structures, energy prices, and management execution. Many gold mining companies have underinvested for years, and while the recent rally has renewed investor interest, the cost structures for these businesses also increase with the price of gold. As noted, the technical indicators are flashing essential warning signals. Relative strength and momentum suggest extreme overbought conditions, and with many stocks trading at multi-year highs, and little regard for earnings variability, investors should consider their risk.

The broader concern is that gold and miners are now trading like momentum stocks. As noted, a dollar reversal could quickly undermine the bullish excitement, and with the dollar now trading at fair value, that risk is rising. Such is particularly the case given that the dollar historically rallies following a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle.

If risk appetite fades, these assets could sell off alongside stocks, leaving investors little exposure to traditional portfolio hedges. Investors should reassess how much downside protection these assets offer during a significant market correction and consider alternatives.

While the macro case for gold remains intact, the price action has likely run ahead of fundamentals. A pullback would help reset expectations.

Investors face the problem of chasing performance, which carries as much risk as chasing AI. The lesson is simple: when everything rallies together, something eventually breaks.

The map below, produced by Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Grid Deployment Office, shows the sprawling and powerful infrastructure behind America’s data center boom.

Using a range of public data sources, it visualizes power transmission hubs in megawatts (MW), highlighting where the electric grid is already working hard, and where future pressure may build.

The table below highlights counties that use the most power for data center facilities:

Loudoun County, Virginia (home to “Data Center Alley”) tops the list with nearly 6,000 MW of active capacity and another 6,300 MW planned.

Why Are Data Centers Located Where They Are?

It’s tempting to assume that large populations drive data center development, but that’s often not the case. Instead, it comes down to a mix of factors:

• Electricity availability and cost: Data centers consume vast amounts of power. States like Virginia, Texas, and Oregon offer competitive electricity pricing and stable infrastructure.

• Access to water: Many facilities use water for evaporative cooling, so proximity to aquifers or rivers can be crucial.

• Fiber networks: Low latency is king. Proximity to fiber optic infrastructure and subsea cable landing stations is critical.

• Zoning and incentives: Tax incentives and permissive local zoning laws can make or break a deal.

With this in mind, here are a few areas on the map worth highlighting:

Ashburn, VA and Surrounding DC Suburbs
The data center cluster around the DC suburbs, especially Ashburn, is known as the “Data Center Capital of the World” and “Data Center Alley.” It hosts the largest concentration of internet infrastructure globally, where about 70% of the world’s internet traffic flows daily. This area offers abundant and reliable power from Dominion Energy, dense fiber connectivity, aggressive state tax incentives, and proximity to major government and enterprise customers, making it the preferred hub for hyperscale cloud and data companies.

The I-85 Corridor
This region, which roughly runs from Atlanta up into Virginia, is emerging as a strategic data center hub. The corridor benefits from improved transmission infrastructure, and growing local tax incentives. Atlanta’s proximity to major East Coast markets and Virginia Beach’s new subsea cable landing stations make this region a digital on-ramp to global networks.

West Texas
Known for its vast open spaces and powerful winds, West Texas offers some of the lowest electricity prices in the country. It’s also home to major renewable energy projects, including wind and solar farms that help data center operators meet clean energy goals. This has drawn attention from major players like Microsoft and Meta.

Eastern Washington and Oregon
The Columbia River powers a dense cluster of hydroelectric dams, which in turn support energy-hungry data centers in towns like The Dalles and Quincy. The cool, dry climate further reduces the need for mechanical cooling, making this region one of the most cost-efficient for data center operations.

Can the Grid Keep Up?

U.S. data centers already consume 2-3% of the country’s electricity. According to WRI, this could double by 2030, especially with AI workloads driving GPU server farms that are far more energy-intensive than traditional ones.

Meanwhile, the pressure is on utilities and policymakers to expand grid capacity faster than ever before. Interconnection queues are long, and power disputes are already delaying projects in places like Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley.

Yet, the demand shows no signs of slowing, making the power grid one of the most important tech battlegrounds of the next decade.

See the world’s biggest data centers by megawatts in this visualization on Voronoi.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

President Trump has announced plans to designate not only Antifa but also other radical left-wing groups as terrorist organizations, signaling a renewed commitment to combating what he described as a “vast domestic terror movement” threatening American safety. 

Trump made the announcement during an Oval office briefing in front of the press.

“We have others we’re going to designate too, but we’re going to look at the people that FUNDED Antifa, see who they are, where they came from and why they did it,” he urged.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just announced he will be designating OTHER leftist groups as terror organization, in addition to Antifa pic.twitter.com/rSnfVb4ZIw

GOOD!

“We have others we’re going to designate too, but we’re going to look at the people that FUNDED Antifa, see who…

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 19, 2025

This move comes just days after the tragic assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, at the hands, it appears, of a suspect linked to left-wing extremism, and builds directly on Trump’s long-standing warnings about Antifa’s role in fomenting chaos.

Trump declared, “Antifa and their radical allies have crossed every line—it’s time to call them what they are: terrorists. We’re designating Antifa as a major terrorist organization, and we’ll go after every group funding or supporting this sick, dangerous radical left disaster.” 

He further emphasized the breadth of the initiative, adding, “This isn’t just about one group; it’s about the entire network of left-wing extremists who’ve turned our streets into battlegrounds.”

“We’ll root them out to protect every American,” he added.

These words, delivered with the gravitas of a leader under siege, underscore Trump’s determination to wield executive authority against domestic threats, echoing his 2020 pledge that never fully materialized due to bureaucratic hurdles.

This is what we need.
Any organization working within our country to undermine our values and our freedoms should be dealt with in the strongest of terms.

— Douglas (@DouglasnTexas) September 19, 2025

This latest announcement harks back to the midst of nationwide riots following the death of George Floyd, when Trump first sounded the alarm on Antifa’s destructive potential. 

In a now-iconic tweet, he stated unequivocally, “The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.” 

Addressing reporters at the time, Trump also lambasted “professional anarchists” for exploiting protests, vowing, “These are not merely trespassers and looters. These are terrorists, and those who defend or promote them are aiding and abetting terrorists.” 

Yesterday’s expansion to “other groups” aligns with reports from Trump’s advisers, who have previewed a broader crackdown on far-left entities, including loosely affiliated activist networks that have clashed with law enforcement at rallies and protests. 

While specifics on named organizations remain forthcoming—potentially including groups like those involved in the Kirk shooting—Trump’s rhetoric paints a picture of a coordinated ideological assault. 

A Necessary Response to Left-Wing Violence

Trump’s actions in this matter represent a vital, overdue reaction to the escalating tide of violence from the radical left. Over the past five years, incidents of Antifa-linked aggression have surged—from firebombings at federal courthouses in Portland to coordinated assaults on police, and now the brazen murder of Charlie Kirk.

Data from the Department of Homeland Security shows a 300% increase in attacks on law enforcement attributed to far-left extremists since 2020, with Antifa’s decentralized cells often at the epicenter. 

Kirk’s killing, allegedly by Tyler Robinson—a figure tied to anti-fascist circles—exposes the deadly consequences of unchecked radicalism, where ideological fervor morphs into targeted assassinations.

Designating these groups as terrorists equips federal agencies with tools like asset freezes, surveillance, and RICO prosecutions to dismantle their operations, much like the successful takedowns of organized crime syndicates.

This is the smoking gun Trump can use to go after George Soros’ network on RICO charges, @ryanmauro tells me: “We traced over $80M going from the Open Society Foundations to at least 54 groups engaged in crime and domestic terror on US soil, or that are pro-terrorism, or are… pic.twitter.com/mKfrOiUElr

— Glenn Beck (@glennbeck) September 17, 2025

Trump is intent on restoring law and order in a nation weary of masked mobs torching businesses and intimidating citizens. By treating Antifa and its allies as the threats they are, Trump is attempting to safeguard communities, prevent further bloodshed, and uphold the rule of law that underpins American freedom. 

Without such measures, the slippery slope of tolerated violence threatens to erode the very fabric of the republic.

Democrats’ Defiance: Prioritizing Chaos Over Safety

Compounding this crisis is the Democratic Party’s apparent reluctance—or outright opposition—to confront these threats head-on. Leaders like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have downplayed Antifa’s role in violence, with Schumer tweeting in 2020 that designating it a terrorist group would be “a dangerous overreach that chills free speech.” 

More recently, following the Kirk assassination, Democrats have pivoted to blaming “right-wing rhetoric” while calling for investigations into Trump’s “divisive language,” effectively shielding the perpetrators.

The umbrella they all fall under is the Democratic party.

— Political Pug (@pug_political) September 19, 2025

This pattern reveals a deeper affinity: Democrats seem content to let groups like Antifa prosper, viewing them as bulwarks against conservatism rather than the arsonists and assassins they really are. 

Recall how, during the 2020 riots, then-candidate Joe Biden condemned “violence on both sides” but rarely singled out Antifa by name, even as billions in damages mounted. 

Today, with far left lawmakers like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez decrying Trump’s designations as “authoritarian,” the party appears more invested in cultural warfare than public safety.

Their resistance isn’t just passive; it’s enabling, allowing these extremists to regroup, fundraise, and strike again under the guise of “activism.”

In contrast, Trump’s proactive stance—offers a beacon of accountability.

Imagine that, a president who protects the citizens 🇺🇸

— ✝️ Shawna Nonna 🇺🇸 (@ShawnaNonna777) September 19, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Coal remains a major U.S. export, even as the domestic energy mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables. In 2024, America exported nearly 100 million tonnes of coal to countries around the world, with a concentration of buyers in Asia.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu, breaks down the top destinations for U.S. coal exports last year. The data for this graphic comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). It shows 2024 coal export volumes by destination, measured in millions of tonnes.

Asia: The Rising Demand Hub

India led the pack with 23.4% of all U.S. coal exports, followed by China (11.5%) and Japan (8.4%). Combined, these three Asian countries accounted for nearly 43% of all American coal exports.

Since 2017, Asia has eclipsed Europe as the leading destination for U.S. coal.

In 2024, India alone purchased 22.9 million tonnes. India’s high demand for U.S. coal is driven by a combination of energy security needs, domestic production gaps, and infrastructure limitations. Currently, the country relies heavily on coal to generate electricity—over 70% of its electricity comes from coal-fired power plants.

Europe’s Waning Role

While several European countries still import American coal, their overall share has declined. The Netherlands remains a key buyer (7.4%), but other nations like Germany, Italy, and Poland account for smaller volumes. The EU’s push to phase out coal and meet climate targets has sharply reduced demand in the region.

Notably, many European buyers now import U.S. coal primarily for metallurgical (steelmaking) rather than power generation uses.

Emerging and Niche Markets

Beyond Asia and Europe, a number of countries in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East imported smaller quantities of U.S. coal in 2024. Brazil (7.8%) and Morocco (5.6%) were notable non-Asian buyers.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out What Powered the World in 2024? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

For centuries, philosophers have compared the great questions (and mysteries) of life to a circle.

That is: To fully understand the circle, you must also recognize its arcs, and to fully understand the arcs, you must see the circle.

The fancy lads call this paradoxical “tying together of all things” hermeneutics.

But we don’t need fancy phrases to call out a global financial system losing all credibility, options and happy endings.

When it comes to the “circle” of an increasingly apparent economic collapse, the systemic, mathematical and historical “arcs” of this dying economic/financial/social sphere are becoming easier for all of us to both feel and see.

A Circle of Systemic Implosion

But to make this real (rather than philosophical), let’s put these evidentiary “arcs” in their proper place so that we can all objectively recognize the circle of systemic implosion knocking on our doors.

ARC 1: Debt

As we’ve been writing for years, the patient-zero from which all the ripple effects of systemic implosion emanate is tragically simple and historically confirmed, namely: Debt.

When nations cross the Rubicon of 100% debt to GDP, growth slows by a third.

As that ratio increases, growth becomes a fantasy. In short, and as David Hume warned centuries ago: Debt destroys nations.

Debt in the US is at historical, unprecedented and also unsustainable levels.

If Hume was right, then Uncle Sam faces serious problems now and ahead.

But what’s even scarier about debt destruction today is that the problem is not just American, it’s global.

Total global debt stands well above $300T, and total global GDP is only 1/3 that cancerous figure.

In short, debt is on a rampage, and it is leaving a swath of destruction (and evidence) in its wake.

ARC 2: The Causes (and Criminals) of Debt

If debt is a crime, then our policymakers are the criminals.

The smoking gun for the currently imploding debt cycle was August 15, 1971, when the home of the World Reserve Currency decoupled from its constitutionally forewarned gold chaperone.

Why the decoupling from sound money?

The answer is simple: Politicians of all stripes (who harbor a “will to power” that would make Nietzsche blush) prefer the short-term votes, power and prestige that come from unlimited spending, which is only possible when a currency is decoupled from a golden chaperone.

This was true long before Trump, and the sins are both red and blue.

Short-term self-interest rather than long-term national interest is the philosophical (human, all too human) modus operandi of all pathologically unwise politicos…

ARC 3: Currency Debasement

Once a currency is free of its golden anchor, it can be printed, mouse-clicked and credit-expanded to infinity and beyond to pay for (“monetize”) the promises, policies and egos of leaders who know little of history and almost nothing of money.

Such credit (and hence currency) expansion leads directly to currency debasement as nations inflate away their ever-expanding bar-tabs with ever-debased currencies (measured against real money: Gold).

This pattern and cycle of debt to currency debasement is as familiar as history itself—at least for those who bother to understand history…

ARC 4: Dishonesty

The next phase of policy makers with their backs against a debt wall is equally clever and equally inevitable, namely: Lying.

One obvious great lie came on day 1, when Nixon promised us in 1971 that our dollar would be just as strong tomorrow as today, and that the decoupling from gold would be “temporary.”

Even prior to that infamous decoupling in 71, the lying was already in full swing.

The Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary of that time were telling Congress that such a decoupling would, in fact, strengthen the dollar and weaken gold.

Fifty-four years later, your dollar has lost 99% when measured against gold.

And as for that “pet rock,” well…rather than “weaken,” it has risen by 8000% since those experts told us it would tank.

Just saying…

But the lying just continued, of course.

Our PhD economists at the FOMC and beyond, for example, gave us Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which promised us we could print trillions to monetize our sovereign debt without creating inflation.

MMT, which is neither “modern,” nor “monetary” nor even a “theory”, has been tried (and failed) from Ancient Rome, the 1720 John Law Era and the collapse of the 1789 French economy to the fiasco of Weimar Germany or the implosion of Yugoslavia in the 1990’s.

In short, one big, history-confirmed lie.

More recently, the lies keep piling up, from the CPI scale/lie we use to downplay actual inflation to a redefinition of a recession for a nation already in recession.

ARC 5: Desperation

From dishonesty follows desperation, when policy makers, otherwise allergic to taking responsibility or speaking bluntly of a crisis, begin looking for fantasy policies to “save us.”

We’ve been tracking and objectively calling out the hidden impotence behind the so-called miracle measures, which are currently making the headlines.

The list is long yet not very distinguished.

But for simplicity, let’s list the most notable fantasies which both history and math (for those willing to look deeply) already confirm as doomed (rigged) to fail.

More to the point:

• Tariffs won’t save us from a debt implosion.

• Stablecoins won’t save us from a discredited dollar and ever-increasing centralization.

• DOGE and USAID cuts won’t save us from a $37T public debt clock whose numbers are rising exponentially rather than “carefully.”

• AI won’t save us from inherently deflationary technology whose near-term buzz hides a longer-term cancer of massive unemployment and recessionary (market-imploding needles) on the AI horizon.

The Jig is Up –And the Evidence/Cracks are Everywhere

As for evidence that all of the foregoing “arcs” are now manifesting as historically unprecedented “cracks” in the global financial system, all one has to do is look around…

Crack 1: The USD

The most obvious indicator of a US in decline is the no-longer-ignorable decline in trust (and demand) for its overly-indebted and stupidly weaponized USD.

As more and more nations trade outside the USD, the BRICS+ headline of de-dollarization is not a “conspiracy theory” but an historical tipping point for the much-debated but otherwise discredited USD.

Crack 2: A Ticking S&P Timebomb

An S&P 500 of which 40% of its market cap is narrowly led by 7 mega-cap (and AI-top heavy) enterprises is not a stock market but rather a market of a few monopoly stocks in which the top 10% enjoy 90% of its wealth.

This narrow market is over-valued by every metric and is entirely Pavlovian in its rises and falls, going up with a dovish Fed or down with a hawkish Fed.

The net result is a Fed-centralized equity market (in the backdrop dying capitalism and rising feudalism) whose inflationary rise is entirely correlated to the Fed’s inflationary monetary policies.

When, not if, the natural forces of the bond market (i.e. spiking yields) replace the Fed’s un-natural monetary forces, this bubble will do what all bubbles do: pop.

Crack 3: An Unloved UST

Since 2014, the world’s central banks have been net-selling USTs and net-stacking physical gold.

This embarrassing trend, driven entirely by distrust for Uncle Sam’s ever-increasing debt-trap, only accelerated when Uncle Sam weaponized that UST and USD in 2022.

Less trust, demand and buyers for US IOUs means more pressure on the Fed’s money-printers to buy its own debt and keep bond prices up and hence bond yields (the true cost of credit) compressed.

Such a bond “accommodation” means currency debasement, pure and simple.

Crack 4: Panic on the COMEX

Once the setting for legalized price fixing of the gold and silver price via uber-levered futures contract shorts, the COMEX is seeing headline-ignored inflows and outflows in which the metals needed to continue the price fix on precious metals is simply no longer there.

Why?

Because counterparties on the COMEX now want physical gold within their own hands, rather than price fixing between London and New York.

Why this sudden need for the real gold rather than paper contracts?

It’s simple: The world, like the BIS, IMF and BRICS+ nations, trusts physical gold as an objectively superior strategic reserve asset than the once sacred 10Y UST, which debt alone has now fully discredited.

Crack 5: Central Bank Gold Stacking

From the moment the US made the fatal mistake of weaponizing the world reserve currency in 2022, central bank gold stacking has tripled.

Why?

Again: For the simple reason that the world is losing love, trust and demand for a weaponized and over-indebted USD whose prior monopoly powers are now devolving in plain sight.

The world sees what history has always shown us: Once a nation debases its currency to monetize its debt sins, gold becomes real money…

 and paper money, becomes, well, just paper…

Crack 6: Waning Petrodollar

When the dollar ditched its gold chaperone in 1971, the clever minds led by Kissinger in DC understood an immediate need to create global demand for the USD.

The OPEC arrangements, which followed, forced the world to buy oil in USD, and for decades, this energy “sponge” created needed demand for an otherwise debased USD.

Since 2022, however, oil is increasingly being bought and sold outside the USD at levels once thought unthinkable before that broken dollar was weaponized.

This is yet another sign of a world moving away from the USD’s declining hegemony due entirely to the USA’s rising debt sickness.

Crack 7: Discord on the Rise

Internal social, cultural and political polarizations within and outside of the US, whether based on race, sexual orientation, immigration dynamics or just plain poor citizens suffering under the visible rage of invisible (i.e., misreported) inflation are clear signs that the natives are getting restless.

Trust in government is at an all-time low within the US and throughout the G-7.

Such social chasms, as well as the worst foreign relations since 1949 and the greatest risk of nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis (with proxy and direct wars nearly everywhere), are classic symptoms in the template of systemic implosions following sovereign debt crises and currency debasement.

As Hemingway warned, the “temporary prosperity” of debt-driven good times is always followed by the “permanent ruin” of currency debasement and war…

Look around you: What do you see?

Currency debasement and war…

No Easy Way Out

Dying nations, dying currencies, and dying financial systems, like dying armies, don’t give up easily, even after it’s clear they are experiencing their Waterloo or Gettysburg moment.

Like the stages of grief, denial is the first emotion for policymakers who can’t admit failure or accountability.

The debt, which is eating away at nations, currencies and citizens, is now too big to grow out of or wean away from with smarter spending habits.

As von Mises warned, there will need to be “constructive destruction” in the form of recessions, market mean reversions, and currency collapses (and hence skyrocketing gold) before the anger stage is surpassed by the acceptance stage.

The IMF talks of resets (and gold-backed CBDC). Bessent and Trump are flirting with gold revaluation.

These are just two of many possibilities, including a Bretton Woods or Plaza Accords 2.0 to re-arrange the deck chairs on a Titanic level of global debt.

Whatever comes next, it will not be smooth, easy or painless.

Paper money will continue its historical and inflationary slide south as gold, that intentionally ignored and downplayed asset, will continue to reach higher all-time-highs as sovereign credibility—from banking and currencies to trust and wisdom—continues to reach all-time-lows.

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China has spent up to $13 billion developing fusion energy since 2023 and could commercially replicate star power to generate electricity by 2030, becoming the first nation to master what’s commonly dubbed “the holy grail of energy solutions.”

Doing so would give the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) “the potential to reshape global geopolitics” and “dominate a new energy era,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology physicists warn.

This cannot happen, said Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas), who chairs the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee’s Energy Subcommittee.

“Fusion energy technologies must be developed and deployed by nations that uphold democratic values, transparency, and international cooperation—not by authoritarian regimes that might exploit energy dominance as a weapon,” he said in opening remarks of a Sept. 18 hearing on the nation’s fusion programs.

“The U.S. must prioritize fusion energy development to outpace the CCP’s aggressive timelines,” Weber added, or China will dominate “the most consequential breakthrough of the century.”

Four fusion experts told the subcommittee during the two-hour hearing that the CCP doesn’t have to win what they see as an existential race, calling on the Trump administration to boost funding to match China’s investment, coordinate research and development with allies, and establish fusion demonstration programs using the same “playbook” that spearheaded breakthroughs in other technologies.

Unlike fission, nuclear fusion replicates the reaction produced by firing atoms, which is the power emitted by stars, and has the potential to provide limitless, clean energy. It is often referred to as “the holy grail of energy solutions.”

Fusion has been researched by academic institutions and government laboratories since the 1950s, with significant breakthroughs in 2022—including Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility completing a nuclear fusion reaction that produced more energy than used to power the experiment—spurring rapid, exponential advancements since.

“This is our ‘Kitty Hawk’ moment, ushering in a new era of virtually unlimited fusion power,” Commonwealth Fusion Systems Co-Founder/CEO Bob Mumgaard said, calling for a $10 billion one-time “kick” in Department of Energy (DOE) funding.

‘Decisive Moment Is Upon Us’

Mumgaard, whose company aims to build a small fusion power plant with an ARC tokamak design by the early 2030s, said the nation’s fusion industry has grown from 23 companies that raised $1.78 billion in private capital in 2021 to 53 companies that raised $10.6 billion in 2024.

But now these burgeoning enterprises need to test experimental fusion reactors in a limited-risk environment, which is where DOE and federal funding could make the difference, he said.

Mumgaard said in his testimony that a fusion demonstration program similar to DOE’s advanced fission reactor program would “accelerate deployment of at least three different fusion power plant approaches, with construction starting by the end of 2028 and entering operation by the early 2030s.”

He called for “milestone-based, cost-shared funding that awards only those who show substantial progress toward the goal” with “selection of participants based not just on scientific merit, but also by requiring a clear path to commercial and business success.”

“I agree this $10 billion injection would go a long way to setting us on the course,” Oak Ridge National Laboratory Fusion Energy Division Director Troy Carter concurred.

“The decisive moment is upon us,” he testified. “With deliberate action now—by supporting new facilities, public-private partnerships, and sustained innovation—we can ensure the U.S. leads in bringing fusion energy from scientific promise to commercial reality.”

“The U.S. fusion industry is on the cusp of commercialization,” Pacific Fusion founder and President Will Regan said in his testimony. “America wrote the playbook on investing in fundamental scientific breakthroughs and then scaling their industrial application through the private sector. Fusion is no different, and today we’re at the last mile of solving key scientific challenges to enabling commercial deployment.”

Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) said, while “very much opposed overall” to the fiscal year 2026 (FY26) budget crafted by President Donald Trump, “I would like to say when it comes to his specific request for fusion, it’s moving in the right direction, and I am glad for that.”

DOE’s FY26 budget request provides $7.1 billion for the Office of Science, which includes fusion research and explicitly directs Congress to allocate in a way that “maintains U.S. competitiveness in priority areas such as fusion.”

“I’m hoping we’ll continue to work on a bipartisan basis to get to where we need to go,” Lofgren said. “Like Wayne Gretzky said, ‘You need to skate to where the hockey puck is going to be.’”

“In a world increasingly concerned with how to address rapidly growing energy needs, as well as geopolitical tensions arising from access to energy and energy resources, fusion energy gives us hope,” University of Wisconsin assistant professor Stephanie Diem testified. “We have achieved remarkable scientific advances; now we need robust support to build a thriving fusion energy ecosystem.”

In the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk assassination as well as the confirmation that alleged killer Tyler Robinson is a far-left ideologue and gay man living with a transgender partner, the public’s attention has once again turned to the issue of Antifa, an activist network that shares many similar political beliefs with the shooter.

Federal authorities are currently investigating the Discord sever groups used by Robinson in the lead up to the attack to find any potential co-conspirators.  Discord has been identified as a common forum used by Antifa for organizing members for specific events while pretending as if their protests are random and “grassroots”. 

In the meantime, the corporate media is once again running interference for Antifa, claiming that the group is nothing more than a gaggle of disconnected people without no affiliation other than they “agree to oppose fascists”. 

Of course, simply declaring yourself the “good guys” does not necessarily make it so.  

The Antifa of pre-war and post-war Europe used a similar tactic, claiming that they were a loose collection of concerned citizens seeking to fight fascism and participate in civil discourse.  In reality, they were being directly funded by the Soviet Union and their ultimate goal was the downfall of the western world to make way for a communist “Utopia”.  

One expert on Antifa, Andy Ngo, says that the claim that Antifa is nothing more than a disorganized protest ideal is a lie.  He notes that the decentralized cell structure of Antifa is similar to structures used by Islamic terror groups.

Ngo is deeply acquainted with the operations of Antifa; he has tracked hundreds of violent incidents involving member of the group over the years.  He was also attacked and nearly killed by a mob of Antifa activists in Portland, Oregon after they recognized him in the street.

On May 28, 2021, I ran for my life through the streets of downtown Portland, Ore.

Antifa had discovered me working undercover after one of their members, John Hacker, exposed me to the mob.

I screamed for help as I fled, but drivers and pedestrians looked away. The businesses… pic.twitter.com/kX7PKoIm8a

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) September 19, 2025

Portland authorities failed to arrest and prosecute the attackers despite some of them being identified on video footage.  In a subsequent civil trial, Antifa intimidated the jury into returning a verdict which favored the assailants.

Andy Ngo and many other investigators into Antifa activities note that the group enjoys a number of protections, including legal protections and funding for operations.  Financial aid comes from crowdfunding pages, but also from NGOs and even government agencies feeding cash into adjacent activism groups. 

This helps to explain why Antifa protesters often have the same signs, the same tents, the same riot shields, access to safe houses, etc.  Many activists travel from outside of the locations that they protest in, which means funding for gas, food, lodging, etc.  Considering the average full-time protester isn’t able to maintain a job to pay for these excursions, the money has to come from somewhere.  NGOs and state government funds are the primary sources.

Did you know that many liberal states give taxpayer-funded grants to Antifa groups that register as nonprofits? In Oregon, taxpayers fund Antifa legal groups that provide free legal aid to violent Antifa members who are charged with felonies. pic.twitter.com/PbYJDMoBuN

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) September 19, 2025

Antifa and related leftist groups exploit various civil and political conflicts, hijack these causes and then use them as a means to further their own goals.  Recent examples include the mass deportation debate and the protests over Gaza.  It’s important to understand that leftist militants do not necessarily care about immigrants or Palestinians, they only see their “plight” as a useful tool for radicalizing activists into using violent tactics. 

Horrifying, listen to three professors from Virginia public universities discuss taking down the United States through violence.

“We actually need to crash the US—We must stand with the armed resistance.”

pic.twitter.com/G9q9trSmwH

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) September 18, 2025

The problems of the world become the justifications for Antifa terror, melding gay, trans, migrant and Islamic grievances under a single communist umbrella.

The end game, though, is always the same.  Burn the west to the ground.  Burn free markets to the ground.  Destroy as many conservatives and nationalists as possible in the process until there is no one left to oppose them.  

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) introduced a resolution on Friday aimed at halting U.S. military strikes on drug trafficking operations in the Caribbean, saying the actions were launched without congressional approval.

The measure, filed under the War Powers Act, would prohibit use of the military against non-state groups involved in drug trafficking unless Congress authorizes it. War powers resolutions are privileged, meaning the Senate must take up the measure for debate and a vote.

The move follows two recent military strikes in the Southern Caribbean Sea—on Sept. 2 and Sept. 15—that targeted vessels that were carrying narcotics. Democratic lawmakers say they have not received key details about the incidents, including who was on board, the cargo, and the legal basis for lethal force.

President Donald Trump has said the vessels belonged to “extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists” operating out of Venezuela. He said the boats were carrying narcotics bound for the United States, calling them a direct threat to U.S. national security and vital interests.

“If you are transporting drugs that can kill Americans, we are hunting you,” Trump said after the Sept. 15 operation, which killed three people. He added there was “recorded evidence” that drugs were on board, including large bags of cocaine and fentanyl scattered in the water after the strike.

“Congress alone holds the power to declare war,” Schiff said in announcing the resolution. “And while we share with the executive branch the imperative of preventing and deterring drugs from reaching our shores, blowing up boats without any legal justification risks dragging the United States into another war and provoking unjustified hostilities against our own citizens.”

Kaine alleged the Trump administration had failed to explain why standard interdiction methods were not used.

“President Trump has no legal authority to launch strikes or use military force in the Caribbean or elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere,” Kaine said, adding that “Congress simply cannot let itself be stiff-armed as this administration continues to flout the law.”

The White House has said the earlier strike on Sept. 2 targeted the operations of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan transnational gang designated as a foreign terrorist organization, and that it was conducted in defense of U.S. national interests.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the time the mission was part of a broader effort to protect the United States and the Western Hemisphere from drug cartels. “Anyone else trafficking in those waters who we know is a designated narco-terrorist will face the same fate,” Hegseth said.

The Democrat resolution argues that drug trafficking does not constitute an armed attack or an imminent threat justifying military action, and that designating an organization as a foreign terrorist group does not authorize use of force.

It directs the president to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against such groups unless explicitly authorized by Congress, while clarifying that the United States retains the right to act in self-defense against an armed attack.

Schiff and Kaine said that Congress supports efforts to stop narcotics from reaching the United States, but said intelligence, law enforcement, and diplomatic tools should be prioritized.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Topgolf was once a Wall Street darling, riding billion-dollar growth and pandemic-era hype as its popularity exploded nationwide. But the boom has since turned into a bust: sales are sliding, the stock has collapsed 75% from its 2021 peak, and now the chain is being forced to split from Callaway. The question is simple: what went wrong?

The answer comes from former Topgolf executives Devin Charhon and Michael Canfield, who told Golf Digest in a recent interview that while Topgolf introduced many new players to the game, it failed to retain them or help them improve their swing. Recognizing this gap between entertainment golf and traditional courses, the two recently launched Blue Jeans Golf. 

Charhon and Canfield noted that Topgolf spent tens of millions building state-of-the-art facilities. Yet, the experience created little real value for customers and did not significantly improve their game. On average, customers returned less than twice a year – an obvious sign that Topgolf failed to retain them.

“The one key insight that I left Topgolf with was, ‘Hey, people love Topgolf. It’s an amazing sort of top-of-the-funnel experience to introduce people to the game. But people aren’t necessarily going back there frequently to practice and get better. It’s not a place for the core golfer. So that was kind of the thesis. This jump from entertainment golf to traditional golf is still a really big and intimidating one. How do we create the experience and the environment that should exist between those two ends of the spectrum? And how do we retain golfers?” Charhon pointed out. 

The duo left Topgolf and started a company called Blue Jeans. With the help of long-term equity and debt partners, they purchased preexisting public driving ranges, with the move to create “Golf Ranch” that blends Topgolf-style amenities (food, drinks, music, Toptracer tech) with traditional range elements (bring your own clubs, unlimited practice time, short-game areas, putting greens). The goal is to modernize aging driving ranges and build community hubs where golfers of all levels feel comfortable.  

Growth & Expansion

• First purchase: Golf Quest (Brookfield, CT) in 2021.

• By 2023: three more sites added (Richardson, TX; Lee’s Summit, MO; Kansas City, MO).

• Amenities include par-3 courses, heated bays, mini golf, batting cages, premium balls/mats, and food & beverage upgrades.

Funding & Future Plans

• Closed a $20M Series B in Sept 2025 (led by Old Tom Capital and Creator Sports Capital).

• Plans: grow to 10–12 locations by 2026, aiming for 50 total and 100k members long-term.

• Currently over 8,000 active “Ranch Pass” members ($20/month subscription).

• Positioning Golf Ranch as “Topgolf for golfers”—scalable, community-driven, and welcoming to both beginners and core players.

Apparently, golfers don’t need all the fancy gadgets at Topgolf. 

They want an actual practice facility.

Sure, maybe each bay has a Trackman, but that’s about it.

Golf Ranch’s rise and expansion come as Topgolf Callaway Brands is preparing to split into two independent companies. 

Sales for Topgolf Callaway Brands have stalled. Suggesting the Topgolf hype is over. 

The stock has tumbled 75% from the 2021 peak. 

Topgolf might be fun, but it’s expensive. The consumer has moved on. Now welcome the more affordable Golf Ranch. 

In a scene straight out of Blues Brothers, a man behind the wheel of a stolen car crashed through a barrier and leapt the University Bridge in a desperate attempt to escape Seattle police officers.

According to SPD spokesperson Brian Pritchard, the chase reached its peak just after 12:20 p.m. Wednesday, when the driver barreled across the bridge as it was lowering, KOMO reported.

With a five-foot gap separating the south and north ends, the car launched over the drop, a stunt that might have looked choreographed for the big screen rather than unfolding in real life.

KOMO says the vehicle, reported stolen on August 4 in Seattle, had first been spotted in the Montlake neighborhood. When officers recognized it, one attempted to follow, but the driver managed to slip away.

Shortly after, police located the suspect again and initiated what they described as a “high-risk stop” at the south end of the bridge.

Instead of giving up, the suspect made the daring jump, sped into the University District, and ditched the battered car. Officers later recovered the vehicle, its windshield shattered and its undercarriage torn up from the landing, but the driver had already vanished.

The suspect remains at large—leaving behind only the wrecked car and a chase that sounds more like Hollywood than Seattle’s streets.