Authored by Madeline Shannon via The Center Square,

The controversial union-backed billionaire tax in California is officially heading to the Nov. 3 ballot.

Secretary of State Shirley Weber announced the California Billionaire Tax Act exceeded the number of signatures it needed to qualify for the general election.

The initiative aims to impose a one-time 5% wealth tax on the Golden State’s billionaires to generate $100 billion in revenue. The tax would apply to assets like art, stocks and bonds. That money would be used to help backfill reductions in federal funding to K-12 schools, health services provided by Medi-Cal and aid from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as CalFresh in California, according to previous reporting by The Center Square.

Representatives from the advocacy group Billionaire Tax Now and the union backing the tax, Service Employees International Union – United Healthcare Workers West, did not respond to The Center Square before publication time.

However, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle spoke to The Center Square on Thursday about the tax measure advancing to the midterm election ballot in November.

“If you want a budget deficit in perpetuity, pass this,” Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Huntington Beach, told The Center Square. “What happens is, these folks are now going to Florida and everywhere else, and not only are they leaving, but they are the ones investing in a lot of these jobs. Those jobs now are fleeing California, and we’re going to lose them, dramatically, going forward.”

The Golden State’s billionaires will take their billions and create jobs in other parts of the country – not in California, Strickland added.

“The minute this passed, we would be in a budget deficit in perpetuity,” Strickland said. “If you care about funding education, if you care about funding health care, if you care about funding transportation infrastructure, you’ll vote no on this initiative, because we won’t be able to fund essential services in California.”

California’s ongoing budget deficit, which the Legislative Analyst’s Office recently projected would amount to $16.9 billion, is largely due to expenditures exceeding revenues under Gov. Gavin Newsom’s most recent budget proposal. That was in spite of the fact that Newsom attempted to solve the state’s budget deficit through 2028, according to previous reporting by The Center Square.

While some, like Strickland, see the potential passage of the billionaire tax making the state’s budget woes worse, there is still support for the measure.

“I agree with the proposal overall,” Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez, D-Pasadena, told The Center Square. “I agree overall with the idea that billionaires and corporations need to pay their fair share. We’ve seen inequality grow in an alarming way, and frankly, I think most Californians are sick of it.”

No one was available from Billionaire Tax Now or Service Employees International Union – United Healthcare Workers West to answer questions about the ballot measure’s progress. When asked if anyone was available to answer questions, a representative from Billionaire Tax Now sent a press release via email.

According to previous reporting by The Center Square, even the potential passage of the tax has sent some billionaires packing who previously called California home. Earlier this year, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg bought a mansion in Florida. Other billionaires also relocated to other states, including Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Palantir Technologies and PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and venture capitalist David Sacks.

A February 2026 report from the National Taxpayers Union Foundation found that the mere proposal of the wealth tax could be costing the state $1 trillion in revenue with the departure of multiple billionaires already. One economist predicted that passage of the tax could eventually cost the state $25 billion in revenue, The Center Square previously reported.

However, a healthcare worker who advocate for the measure previously told The Center Square that if billionaires leave the state, they are only showing their own greed.

“We need to put humanity first over greed,” Debru Carthan, a radiologic technologist for Kaiser, told The Center Square in March. “This is about being our brothers’ keeper. Those who leave California – they are showing their greed. They’re showing their selfishness. And the very patients who will die are the ones who helped them make the billions that they have now.”

According to Business Insider, there are more than 200 billionaires who live in California.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Last month I wrote about something that had been building in my mind for years: the realization that active trading was doing more harm than good in my life.

I wrote about how I had finally put systems in place to turn my trading and account management over to trusted parties who are far better and more disciplined at it than I am. I had to separate the fact that I feel great about often being an accurate prognosticator on my blog about market trends, but that executing the corresponding trades was simply something I wasn’t good at.

Now, thirty days since my last trade, I couldn’t be happier that I made the decision. Admittedly, it hasn’t been incredibly easy, especially because I can’t remove all of my triggers and simply ignore the news, world and current events. I’ve been chugging coffee, reading headlines and trading every morning for the last 20 years. So I don’t expect it to be an easy habit to break.

But it’s getting easier, and I’m stepping away from reading every headline, every day, toward putting the phone down and living in the present moment once my work is done and my column is written each morning.

And I can’t imagine a better time to undertake this exercise. “The market” was once a symbol of integrity and serious business run by old f*cks in bowties and suits, like the Duke brothers.

Now it has become less a mechanism for allocating capital and more a 24-hour Las Vegas freak show carnival of increasingly exotic wagers. Our market has become the pro boxing equivalent of when Screech from Saved by the Bell fought Horshack on Celebrity Boxing.

Back in year like 1980, a company had stock. Simple enough. Today you can trade options on the stock, leveraged ETFs tracking the stock, tokenized versions of the stock at 2 a.m., and prediction-market contracts on whether or not Joe Kernen is wearing a toupee when he reports on the stock.

Wall Street and Las Vegas used to be different places. Those days are over. And new reporting from The Wall Street Journal confirms it. They reported this week that Charles Schwab is preparing to enter the prediction market business through a partnership with Cboe. According to the report, Schwab customers will soon be able to trade binary-style contracts tied to the performance of the S&P 500. The contracts function much like prediction market wagers: traders make a yes-or-no bet on whether an index finishes above or below a certain level and receive either a fixed payout or nothing at all.

In other words, one of the largest and most respected brokerages in America is moving further down the path of turning market outcomes into wager-like products.

To be clear, this is not simply a Schwab story, it is a sign of where the entire financial industry is heading. The distinction between investing and gambling is becoming harder and harder to identify.

Prediction markets have exploded over the last several years. Sports betting has become ubiquitous. Options volumes continue to reach extraordinary levels. Crypto exchanges offer leverage that would have seemed insane a decade ago. Every event, every opinion, every outcome increasingly becomes something that can be traded. Sometimes it’s tough to remember there’s actual company equity at the bottom of the pile of all this speculative shit somewhere.

Last month I wrote: “Every event is now a market. Every opinion is now a wager. Every moment of boredom can be monetized by putting money at risk on your phone.”

If anything, I understated the trend. The financial industry sees demand and it is responding exactly the way industries always do: by supplying more product. The problem is that the costs aren’t limited to individual traders. Most discussions about gambling focus on personal responsibility, addiction, and financial hardship. Those concerns are real. We already see rising stories of people using credit cards, personal loans, margin debt, and other borrowed money to fund speculative activity. The American consumer is tapped out, as I detailed a couple weeks ago.

Source: Zero Hedge

We’ve seen countless examples in crypto, options, sports betting, and meme stocks where people become trapped in cycles of chasing losses and doubling down on increasingly risky positions. But the risks do not stop at the individual level.

When enough leverage accumulates inside a system, personal mistakes become market problems. Speculation funded by borrowed money creates fragility. Fragility creates forced selling. Forced selling creates liquidity events. Liquidity events create contagion. The history of financial markets is filled with examples of this dynamic.

And as savings dwindles, margin debt as a percentage of GDP is consistently rising. In other words, we’re taking more risk. Gambling more. Investing less.

But leverage doesn’t look dangerous during a boom. It looks efficient. It looks sophisticated. It looks profitable.

Update(10:00ET): With Vance and Witkoff in Switzerland, President Trump is still issuing some US redlines via Truth Social, and via apparent ‘official leaks’ – and quite quickly – through the press.

Trump is warning the Iranians on the sticking points of Hormuz closure and the Lebanon crisis. He has newly threatened on Sunday to hit Iran again if it can’t constrain its proxies, namely Hezbollah, in Lebanon. In parallel, Tehran is demanding that Washington reign in Israel. A fresh Sunday Truth Social… brief but firm:

And more on some fresh reported warnings and pressure coming from Trump:

“You close it and you won’t have a country.” President Trump said he told Iranian officials about the Strait of Hormuz. “You won’t even make it back to your fu*king country.”

“We may take over the Strait, if we have to,” Trump said. “If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect… pic.twitter.com/cErvdjCJmK

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 21, 2026

As the American delegation continues the high-stakes negotiations in Switzerland aimed at de-escalating, the White House is projecting cautious optimism while simultaneously reminding Tehran that military options remain firmly on the table.

Speaking as talks entered a critical phase, Vice President JD Vance said Sunday from Switzerland Washington has “made great progress over the last few hours” and expects “additional progress in the coming hours,” describing the negotiations as an opportunity to “turn over a new leaf” in US-Iran relations. Vance emphasized that the administration’s preference is not to return to the cycle of confrontation, adding that the US is willing to fundamentally transform ties with Iran if Tehran permanently abandons its nuclear ambitions.

“The question is how much more we can achieve in the Middle East,” Vance said, while expressing confidence regarding the Lebanon front and signaling satisfaction with ongoing efforts to contain broader regional escalation.

Yet Trump has just delivered a stark reminder of the consequences should negotiations fail. According to Fox News, Trump warned Iranian officials that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be an existential mistake, reportedly telling Tehran that it “won’t have a country” if it attempts to choke off global energy flows, in the segment above. Trump also issued a personal warning to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, saying he “better watch his mouth,” while reports indicated the president used unusually blunt language during discussions with Iranian intermediaries over the strategic waterway.

President Trump spoke with the Iranians overnight warning them not to close the Strait.

“You close it and you won’t have a country,” Trump said he told Iranian officials. “You won’t even make it back to your fu*king country.”

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 21, 2026

Perhaps most notably, Trump reiterated that he retains a “60-day option” and can “do whatever” he deems necessary after that period expires, a statement widely interpreted as preserving the possibility of renewed military action. The president also reportedly threatened additional strikes against Iran should Tehran’s regional proxies in Lebanon resume attacks or undermine the emerging diplomatic framework.

The result is a familiar carrot-and-stick approach as talks are unfolding under the shadow of explicit US military threats and a rapidly approaching deadline that could determine whether the region moves toward détente or another round of escalation. But Iran has also made known that it is ready of a long war, but will Trump be willing to risk enduring the political and economic fallout?

*  *  *

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry has formally confirmed the launch of the talks between the United States and Iran with the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan in Switzerland, with the Iranian delegation headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

US Vice President JD Vance is leading the American side along with envoy Steve Witkoff. Also gathered at the Buergenstock Resort Lake Lucerne, near Stansstad, are Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Qatar has expressed “its aspiration that these meetings will lead to the conclusion of a comprehensive and permanent agreement addressing all aspects covered in the Memorandum of Understanding.” Iran has reiterated it wants a comprehensive settlement and final end to the war. But it also demands a final Lebanon-Israel peace settlement be linked in. Already there could be an inkling of progress on the nuclear front:

• PAKISTAN:US, IRAN AGREED ON REDUCTION OF ENRICHED URANIUM LEVEL
• PAKISTAN:IRAN’S ENRICHED URANIUM TO BE REDUCED FROM 60% TO 0.7%
• IRAN PRESIDENT SAYS QATAR TO RELEASE $6B AS TALKS START: IRNA

The last time Vance sat physically across from Iran’s lead negotiator Ghalibaf was a full ten weeks ago, in mid-April. Interactions appear to initially be only through intermediaries, which will build up to face-to-face meetings, as happened in prior failed rounds. 

Qatar’s foreign ministry has previewed the following planned format to the opening of the talks as follows:

• The ministry statement says “specialized technical and expert groups have been formed to negotiate the terms of the final agreement, which will cover all aspects of the Memorandum of Understanding” between the US and Iran.
• “Additionally, follow-up groups have been established to oversee the implementation of the Memorandum, monitor progress achieved, and work toward the conclusion of the final agreement,” it added.
• “This reflects the commitment of all parties to moving forward in the negotiation process in good faith, with the aim of reaching a comprehensive and sustainable agreement.”

Of course, in terms of “implementation” of just the MoU itself, things are not quite there yet, as sporadic fighting and Israeli aerial attacks continue in Lebanon, which could serve to derail the Switzerland process at any moment.

After roughly 45 min, the bilateral meeting between FM @araghchi and his Swiss counterpart @ignaziocassis came to a close at Bürgenstock Hotel. Quadrilateral talks between Iran, the US, Pakistan, and Qatar are expected to commence shortly at another venue on the same premises. pic.twitter.com/hOmovguWFs

— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) June 21, 2026

Additionally, Iran has declared it has ‘closed’ the Strait of Hormuz just this weekend, but which the US military has been denying is a reality. VP Vance in media appearances has also been downplaying it.

The Lebanon situation seems the bigger, more pressing threat to the peace process – at least from Tehran’s point of view. Dozens of people in Lebanon have been killed while at least six Israeli soldiers have been slain, with 20 wounded over past days of Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.

As a reminder, President Trump doesn’t want to oversee an economic catastrophe driven by a worldwide energy crisis. It seems he’s ready to anything to not let it happen under his watch:

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he was motivated to finalize the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to prevent “economic catastrophe” if the war was not resolved soon.

“So rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover, he was always the one I didn’t want to be,” Trump said of the 31st president whose policies are often blamed for starting the Great Depression.

“I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this going, that could have happened. But all I know is, every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship,” Trump said during a press conference Wednesday on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Évian, France.

And so judging by this and other of recent Trump admissions, Iran clearly enters Switzerland in very strong negotiation position. Its current rhetoric regarding the Strait of Hormuz also reveals this.

JD Vance met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir in Switzerland.pic.twitter.com/5bteI1Vtyu

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 21, 2026

Tehran has accused the US of a “clear breach of its commitments” and announced Saturday that “the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to the passage of vessels,” according to state broadcaster IRIB.

For more on the details of the format, CNN has reported some further information in the following:

• When and where do the talks start? US and Iranian negotiators will begin their meeting at around 1 p.m local time (7 a.m. ET) at the Swiss mountain resort of Bürgenstock, an Iranian source told CNN.
• Who will be there? Both the United States and Iran have sent high-level officials to Switzerland. Vice President JD Vance is heading up the US side, while Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, will lead Tehran’s delegation, Iranian media outlet Saberin News reported Saturday.
• What format will they take? Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, who is part of the Iranian team, earlier told state media “the Iran-US talks will be held in a quadrilateral format, with the presence of Pakistani and Qatari delegations.”
• What will be discussed? Lebanon is likely set to top the agenda after clashes between Israel and Hezbollah threatened the nascent agreement between the US and Iran. Vance says he hoped he would make advancements on negotiations surrounding the handling of Iran’s nuclear materials.

To put things in perspective about the long road ahead, analyst and reporter James Bayes – who is on the ground for the talks in Switzerland, has offered the following: “This is a very different deal from the Iran nuclear deal that was done by [former US] President Barack Obama … things have changed completely. But I think it’s worth looking at that deal for one reason, which is the timeline – how long these things take.”

“Because when they did an interim deal then, in November 2013 until the final deal in 2015, it took 597 days,” the correspondent added. “So, even though the circumstances have changed – it’s a very different deal and they’ve got the knowledge of that deal as well which is helpful – it’s a lot to do in just 60 days.”

If there’s a ‘good cop, bad cop’ routine happening at the Kremlin, mostly assuredly the role of bad cop always falls to Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev. In his maximalist and hyperbolic threats, he can be seen as the “John Bolton of the Kremlin”. 

With Trump’s decision to wage war on Iran, Medvedev’s negativity and skepticism has proven right more often than wrong. He is the latest Kremlin top official to weigh in on the bad position Washington once again finds itself embroiled in – and by it’s own ‘choice’ – in the Middle East.

Medvedev, who has for the last several years been Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman, says an agreement between the US and Iran could easily be derailed by new provocations, and he took the opportunity to lash out at Israel, America’s so-called indispensable ally.

He has said, within mere days of Iran and Washington signing their big Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – which may or may not hold given ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah – that expecting peace is “rash”.

He has stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is “sustained by war” – which is a bit of rare high level moment of the Kremlin lashing out at Israel.

“An unstable agreement easily explodes with new strikes on Lebanon or other provocations. And that’s exactly what the Netanyahu cabinet, which is sustained by war, needs. So, expecting peace is rash,” Medvedev stated Saturday on the Russian social media platform Max.

Al Jazeera has reviewed:

Russia has deepened its existing ties with Iran since the start of the Ukraine war, with Moscow and Tehran expanding military and economic cooperation – though the partnership has shown limits, with Russia offering largely rhetorical support during Iran’s recent conflict with the US and Israel.

Israel and Russia were largely at odds during the entirety of the Syrian proxy war, with Israeli aerial aggression in Syria having at times resulted in Russian losses. 

For example, in September 2018, there was this serious incident when Syrian anti-air missiles sought to fire on inbound Israeli jets. Instead, a Russian reconnaissance plane went down:

The leaders of Russia and Israel have sought to defuse tension after a Russian plane was shot down by Syrian forces amid an Israeli air raid.

In a call to Vladimir Putin, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu expressed regret at the loss of 15 Russian personnel, but stressed again that Syria was to blame.

Mr Putin had earlier called the incident “a chain of tragic accidental circumstances”. The Il-20 plane was downed over the Mediterranean Sea on Monday evening.

🗣️ ‘This fragile agreement is easily blown apart by new strikes on Lebanon or other provocations. And that is precisely what Netanyahu’s Cabinet, which clings to power through war, needs’

🇷🇺 Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warns that Israel is… pic.twitter.com/6A6ChsBgQU

— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) June 20, 2026

Russia had throughout the Syria war sought to carefully avoid a direct conflict with Israel, and after Assad’s overthrow its forces have of necessity been in retreat from the Middle East.

Russia’s military still has assets along Syria’s coast, but the future of its presence remains very uncertain, having largely resorted to ‘humanitarian’ missions will seeking to open diplomacy with the new Sharaa government. 

During the opening years of the Russia-Ukraine war European states were quite welcoming to Ukrainian refugees and anyone fleeing the carnage and chaos, but now in the conflict’s fifth year the general sentiment among EU populations and governments is changing.

Switzerland, once hailed as Europe’s most neutral state – and among the most ‘welcoming’ countries for asylum seekers – is mulling a policy change which would exclude Ukrainian men of military age from protections granted to refugees.

The Swiss Federal Council announced in a statement Friday that it has begun consultations over the legal status of some 66,000 Ukrainian nationals who fled to Switzerland after the conflict erupted.

Welfare assistance and refugee protections are quite good in Switzerland, given individuals receive basic living items as well as government payouts, and can even freely travel in and out of the country.

For now, protections are expected to extend to Ukrainians in the country, but there’s new talk of revoking this status for men of military age at a moment the Ukrainian military continues to face a severe manpower shortage:

The government announced on Friday that, at a national asylum conference in November 2025, the State Secretariat for Migration (SEM), the cantons, cities and municipalities had been tasked with drawing up clear regulations for the future of S protection status.

The results of this deliberation are now set out in a concept paper entitled “The Future of S Status”. According to the government, it serves to prepare for three possible scenarios: the continuation of S status; its abolition in the event of a stable ceasefire; and a phasing out of S status in the event of a protracted conflict.

Specifically pertaining to men of fighting age, the government is considering “a possible future restriction for Ukrainian men subject to conscription,” a new statement reads.

“This is because the EU is currently considering an extension of temporary protection with a possible restriction for these men,” the country’s Federal Council has explained. A final decision could come by the end of the summer, but political pushback is said to be growing.

It should be remembered revocation of protected status is something the Zelensky government itself has long asked Western allies to do. It wants the rapid return of military-aged men, at a moment Ukrainian recruiters have resorted to harsh tactics cracking down on what are seen as draft dodgers.

EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner has also confirmed “This is also what the Ukrainians are asking us to do” – commenting on the question of no longer extending protections to Ukrainian men in EU states.

For now, no major policy shifts are expected, but as the war goes on and on, the tone of the conversation has shifted among many European officials. Washington in particular has emphasized that Ukraine’s populace must stand up for itself, and has even leaned heavily on Kiev to make the mandatory conscription age younger.

US-Iran technical talks are underway on Sunday, with Qatari mediators involved. Ahead of the talks, likely focused on Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran attempted to reassert leverage over the Strait of Hormuz following renewed Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon.

Iran announced the closure of the strait on Saturday, framing the move as retaliation for alleged violations of the US-Iran interim peace deal. 

Early Sunday, maritime intelligence and risk analytics firm Windward wrote on X, “Hours after the IRGC’s closure announcement, AIS traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suggested business as usual.”

Hours after the IRGC’s closure announcement, AIS traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suggested business as usual.

But overnight, the picture shifted: zero AIS transits were recorded through the strait, and only two non-Iranian commercial vessels were AIS-visible this morning.… pic.twitter.com/F4djrrT38m

— Windward (@WindwardAI) June 21, 2026

“But overnight, the picture shifted: zero AIS transits were recorded through the strait, and only two non-Iranian commercial vessels were AIS-visible this morning. Hesitation is back in an already unpredictable corridor,” Windward continued.

Related:

• Vance ‘Skeptical’ That Iran Closed Hormuz Strait Again, Pentagon Declares Safe Passage Remains ‘Intact Today’

However, Bloomberg data show that after vessel transits through the strait spiked to 23 on Thursday, shortly after the interim peace deal was signed and one day before the Hormuz chokepoint reopened, the transit count is now 9 today.

There are reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned vessels not to approach the critical waterway, citing Israeli actions in Lebanon and alleged US violations of ceasefire commitments. It remains unclear whether Iran has actually enforced the closure.

President Trump insisted on Saturday that “NO TOLLS” would be charged on ships transiting Hormuz during or after the 60-day interim ceasefire. But he noted, “unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs.”

Brent crude closed around $80 a barrel last week after the US and Iran reached an interim deal to lift the US blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of a prolonged Gulf supply shock.

This prompted Goldman analyst Daan Struyven to forecast on Wednesday that crude prices would normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July and that regional crude production would recover by October.

Struyven estimates that Hormuz flows would need to rise by about 13 million barrels a day from current levels to reach roughly 70% of pre-war volumes.

The problem with Hormuz is that Tehran is now using the narrow, critical waterway as leverage for technical talks. That suggests Iran could continue to spark uncertainty during today’s negotiating window, then signal a reopening if talks make progress before NYMEX WTI futures open later this evening. 

Authored by Thaddeus G. McCotter via American Greatness,

When I call you up, your line’s engaged

I have had enough, so act your age

We have lost the time that was so hard to find

And I will lose my mind

If you won’t see me . . .

Time after time

You refuse to even listen

I wouldn’t mind

If I knew what I was missing

—The Beatles, “You Won’t See Me”

As one heads into senescence, the milestones begin to fade in the rearview mirror. Yet every now and again, something jars the memory to refocus your recognition of such milestones and on how time has truly flown.

Recently, I was reminded that nearly an entire generation of Americans has been born after the introduction of the iPhone in 2007. As a Gen Xer born before the introduction of the answering machine, I felt the weight of my sixty years, along with a gnawing anxiety about the future.

No, not because I won’t be around all that much longer. Despite the myths of the ubiquitous cult of youth promoted by our callow commercial culture, the increasing aches and pains accompanying my journey into old age are an insistent reminder that no one lives forever. Rather, my concern is how few Americans will be born to replace me and the other older members of our aging nation.

As reported by Elise Winland in Zeale News, a new study suggests the 2007 introduction of the iPhone has played a significant role in the declining U.S. fertility rate.

Written by Caitlin K. Myers and Ezekiel Hooper and issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the title of the working paper says it all: “Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly.”

The study’s methodology is straightforward, as are its implications for our nation. As succinctly explained by Ms. Winland: “The paper draws on a natural experiment created by Apple’s exclusive deal with AT&T. When the iPhone launched in June 2007, it was available only on AT&T’s network until February 2011, giving researchers a way to compare areas with different levels of early iPhone access.”

While this deal was fortuitous for the researchers, the consequences were disastrous for the nation’s birth rate. According to Myers and Hooper:

The diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births among women under 30 while suppressing the rise in births among older women. Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15–44. National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency.

Importantly, Myers and Hooper are not asserting that the iPhone is the sole cause of the steep decline in America’s birth rate, which they cite as having dropped by 22 percent since 2007, again, the year of the iPhone’s introduction. For, as Winland notes, the researchers believe the nation’s record low birth rate of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44 “cannot be fully explained by the common explanations such as the Great Recession, increased access to contraception, rising housing and childcare costs, and delayed marriage.”

The researchers do argue that “studies imply that access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5–8.0% at ages 15–19 and 3.2–6.6% at ages 20–24, with statistically significant but smaller declines among older cohorts.” (It is worth noting that the iPhone had a salubrious impact on reducing teen pregnancies; however, the enduring detrimental effects stemming from the loss of social interaction and its accompanying skills will be carried into the future by today’s teens.)

Anyone with a cursory acquaintance with Marshall McLuhan’s work will see his dictum, “the medium is the message,” at work here. Every new technology affects human beings, both in how they interact with that technology and in how they subsequently interact—or fail to interact—with other people by using it.

The math—specifically subtraction—is elementary: by spending more time in your virtual cocoon, you have less time for interacting with real human beings. One must therefore consider how much of the iPhone’s contribution to the birth dearth stems from the technology’s unconscious effects on its users. Indeed, unlike, say, birth control or a career choice, the iPhone is not being used deliberately to delay or prevent pregnancy. Rather, the birth dearth is exacerbated because the iPhone user is more rapt with the device and the stimulation it provides than by another person. After all, there are only so many hours in the day—and night.

Meanwhile, the birth rate continues its decline. It is an indicator of national health. An optimistic, future-oriented nation has at least a replacement birth rate, if not a growing one. A declining nation has a declining birth rate. In America today, the atomization of our citizenry and its accompanying anomie continue apace, as algorithmically personalized prison cells push us out of gen pop and into solitary confinement. Thus does the insidious, circular logic of the siren song of decline become the mantra: life is unfair, inequitable, and horrible, so it is better—in fact, virtuous—not to bring a new life into this morass of meaninglessness.

The result of this is the declining birth rate found in both the United States and Europe, where the apostles of postmodernism hold sway, filling the perceived vacuity of modernity with a creed that holds the most “tolerant” belief is to believe in nothing—including one’s inherited civilization. A postmodern generation taught to loathe itself does not care to procreate. For what better way to reject the meaningless future than by making sure there are no succeeding generations to perpetuate it?

While my bachelor’s degree is only in political science, and despite all the technological advances during my lifetime—including the internet, social media, AI, and the answering machine—I nonetheless feel confident in declaring, “You can only make a baby in the real world.”

A healthy nation prizes real life over a virtual world. It doesn’t have a birth dearth. And I’m inclined to believe it has more answering machines—or at least call waiting—and fewer smartphones.

I had to interrupt and stop this conversation

Your voice across the line gives me a strange sensation

I’d like to talk when I can show you my affection

Oh, I can’t control myself . . .

Don’t leave me hanging on the telephone

Hang up and run to me

Oh, hang up and run to me.

—Blondie, “Hanging on the Telephone”

Via The Cradle

Late this week Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli declared in an interview with Israeli Army Radio that Tel Aviv “will be at war with Syria sooner or later,” highlighting that the alliance between Damascus and Turkey poses a “strategic challenge” to his country.

The Likud official said, “There is no way that a jihadist regime rooted in ISIS and Al-Qaeda, whose aspiration is the unification of Jerusalem, can live in peace alongside the State of Israel.”

In a separate interview with Kol Barama, a prominent Israeli ultra-Orthodox radio station, Chikli identified Syria as part of a “radical Sunni axis of evil” involving Qatar, Turkiye, and Pakistan, labeling it “far more troubling” than Iran, and claimed that these nations shaped a recent US–Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) intended to end regional hostilities.

While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hailed the memorandum as an “important development,” Chikli joined other Likud lawmakers in branding Turkiye an “enemy state.” 

He claimed that Turkiye holds “very clear ambitions” compromising Israeli interests, saying that Ankara and Damascus are “ten thousand times more concerning than Iran.”

Following the ousting of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, the Israeli military continues to occupy Syrian land and destroy military equipment, using the new government as a pretext for escalation and territorial expansion.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now demands total demilitarization from south Damascus to the 1973 demarcation line. Since December 2024, Israeli military violations in southern Syria have escalated beyond periodic airstrikes to a sustained campaign involving ground incursions, raids, and the establishment of checkpoints. 

According to a daily tracker launched by Levant24, Israeli forces have carried out approximately 1,128 ground incursions and 1,055 airstrikes, advancing more than 20 kilometers beyond the occupied Golan Heights. These actions have resulted in over 197 detentions and at least 36 fatalities.

This expansion also includes property destruction and the systematic mapping of military positions, reflecting a broader pattern of activity that extends deep into Syrian territory.

Self-appointed Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa is reportedly resisting intense pressure from the US to launch a military incursion into Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. 

Despite a framework proposed by US President Donald Trump for the Syrian military to lead this offensive, Sharaa remained “unprepared and unwilling,” according to  Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN). He cited concerns that such an attack would damage his regional legitimacy by appearing to serve Israeli interests, especially while Israel continues to occupy Syrian territory. 

Although US envoy Tom Barrack has threatened Lebanon with a Syrian assault to dismantle Hezbollah, Sharaa has dismissed the reports as “rumors,” asserting his goal is to end the war rather than expand it. 

Israeli War Minister Israel Katz told Channel 14 that “We do not need Julani. Julani, the terrorist in a suit, does not need to come and help us. We know Syria well. He is not going to help us in Lebanon.” He added that Sharaa “should stay in Syria, not interfere with us, and not make us interfere with him.” 

“Do you know what really hurts the jihadists?” Katz said, going on to assert that killing them would not hurt them as much as “when you take territory from them and destroy their homes – and that’s what we did.”