Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Last week I wrote that Zohran Mamdani is a f***ing moron has proposed a new estate tax that is not really aimed at billionaires but at ordinary New Yorkers whose so called wealth is largely tied up in the homes they spent decades paying off.

That argument may have sounded abstract to some readers, like a warning about unintended consequences that might or might not materialize. But we do not have to speculate about how these kinds of burdensome taxation policies play out. Other than the Laffer Curve, which exists for a reason and has existed for 50 years now, we have another real world example, and it is happening in a state that shares many of New York’s political instincts and fiscal habits.

Massachusetts recently implemented a new 4% surtax on income above one million dollars after voters approved the measure in 2022. Supporters framed it as a targeted, reasonable way to raise revenue from top earners in order to fund public priorities like education and transportation. In theory, it was precisely the kind of policy that politicians like Mamdani claim will generate large sums of money without broader economic consequences.

But, of course, the early data tells a more complicated and far less comforting story.

In 2023, the first year the surtax took effect, Massachusetts experienced a net outflow of $4.2 billion in adjusted gross income. That number increased eight percent from the prior year. This was not driven by a sudden collapse in population or some unrelated shock. It reflects a steady and measurable movement of income and the people who earn it out of the state. Even more telling is that this shift occurred despite the fact that overall migration patterns did not dramatically worsen. In other words, fewer people may have left, but those who did leave took significantly more income with them.

Chart: Bloomberg

This is the dynamic that advocates of higher taxes on so called targeted groups consistently ignore. Taxes change behavior, particularly among people with the greatest flexibility to respond.

High earners, business owners, and investors do not passively absorb higher tax burdens if they have realistic alternatives. They look for jurisdictions that treat them more favorably, and in the United States those alternatives are abundant. States like Florida and New Hampshire offer dramatically lower tax burdens and have become magnets for precisely the kind of taxpayers that high tax states increasingly depend on.

Supporters of the Massachusetts surtax will point out that it has generated billions in new revenue, and that claim is accurate as far as it goes. What it leaves out is the longer term erosion of the tax base that can accompany those gains. When billions of dollars in income leave a state, that loss compounds over time through reduced investment, fewer business formations, and lower future tax collections. The short term revenue boost can obscure a slower but more consequential decline underneath.

Now consider what Mamdani is proposing in New York. His plan rests on the same magical thinking that drove the Massachusetts surtax, namely that the government can squeeze significantly more revenue out of a conveniently defined group without that group noticing or doing anything about it. This is a comforting theory if you spend most of your time in policy seminars and very little time observing how actual humans behave.

In the real world, people respond to incentives, especially when those incentives involve large sums of money and the option to simply leave. New York, of course, is already one of the most heavily taxed places in the country and has been bleeding residents to lower tax states for years. Piling on a dramatically more aggressive estate tax is not bold policy innovation. It is doubling down on a problem everyone can already see.

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What makes Mamdani’s proposal even more impressive, and by that I mean in the worst possible way, is how wide a net it casts while still pretending to target only the rich. Massachusetts at least aimed its surtax at income above one million dollars, which, while debatable policy, is at least rhetorically consistent. Mamdani wants to drop the estate tax threshold to $750,000, which in New York City is less a marker of wealth than a marker of having bought a house at some point in the last thirty years and not lost it. A modest home in Queens or Brooklyn plus a retirement account is enough to trip that wire. Apparently, in this framework, a retired city worker with a paid off house now qualifies as landed gentry. The rhetoric says oligarchs. The math says your parents.

The behavioral response here does not require a PhD in tax law to understand, which is perhaps why it gets so little attention from the people proposing it. Avoiding an estate tax is not like restructuring a business or navigating some obscure loophole. In many cases, it is as simple as changing your address. That is not a hypothetical. Retirees already move to states with lower taxes all the time. Mamdani’s plan just gives them one more very concrete reason to do it, preferably before the state gets a final look at their life savings. It turns out that when the choice is between leaving New York or handing over a large chunk of what you planned to pass on to your children, a nontrivial number of people will start browsing real estate in Florida.

The predictable result is then treated as some kind of mystery. Instead of a stable and growing stream of revenue extracted from the rich, you get a slow but steady erosion of the tax base as wealth, income, and taxpayers relocate to friendlier jurisdictions. That loss does not show up all at once, which makes it easy for policymakers to ignore in the short term while they celebrate the initial revenue bump. Over time, though, the math stops cooperating, and the response is almost always the same. If the rich are not paying enough, the definition of rich quietly expands until it includes whoever is still around.

New York does not need a crystal ball to see how this plays out. The preview is already running in places like Massachusetts. Ignoring it is not bold or visionary. It is just willful blindness. And if Mamdani’s proposal moves forward, the ending will not be surprising. It will be the same story New York has been telling for years, only faster, louder, and far more expensive for the people who do not have the option to leave.

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Sergei Lavrov quickly on the heels of President Trump early Monday having claimed Washington and Tehran had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities” – as the war is in its fourth week.

Moscow appears to be moving to position itself as a broker, with Russia’s foreign ministry announcing that FM Lavrov called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran,” in a call initiated by Tehran.

The Kremlin followed this by its spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating negotiations should have begun “yesterday” – adding that “this is the only way to effectively ease the catastrophically tense situation in the region.”

Trump had on Saturday unveiled a time-specific ultimatum which threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The clock is ticking on the 48-hour timeline, and it’s unclear how the Trump-touted Tehran-Washington contacts will impact that (contacts which Tehran has denied).

As for the Kremlin, Peskov also warned against strikes on nuclear infrastructure following reported attacks on Natanz nuclear facility, stating: “We believe that strikes on nuclear facilities are potentially extremely dangerous … Therefore, the Russian side, taking an extremely responsible stance on this issue, has repeatedly voiced its concerns.”

The risk is no longer theoretical given that Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom and the International Atomic Energy Agency had confirmed a projectile strike on the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, marking a dangerous new phase where nuclear sites are no longer off limits.

This in turn resulted in Iran for the first time targeting Dimona, home to Israel’s major nuclear reactor and research complex. But there’s no indication it suffered any direct hits.

“Dimona, where the second missile hit, is perilously close to Israel’s main nuclear reactor and research site. Iranian state media said the strike targeted the nuclear facility in retaliation for an attack on an Iranian nuclear enrichment site at Natanz, though the IDF has said it was unaware of that operation,” NBC reports.

“The International Atomic Energy Agency said that no abnormal off-site radiation levels had been observed following the strikes, though it urged all sides to exercise restraint near nuclear sites,” the report added.

At this point it’s anything but clear whether Trump’s announcement of talks will lead to an actual slowdown or pause in fighting. Here’s how Russia’s RT framed Iran’s stance:

Iranian sources, however, have told state media that no negotiations have been held with Washington, even through intermediaries. The Iranian Embassy in Afghanistan has stated that Trump “backed down” after Iran’s “firm warning” that it would retaliate to strikes on its energy infrastructure by attacking power plants across the region.

On Sunday US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told “Meet the Press” that Washington must “escalate to de-escalate” in the Iran and Strait of Hormuz situation. However, Washington never seems to be able get to the “de-escalate” part.

The billionaire owner of adult content platform OnlyFans has died after a long battle with cancer, according to Bloomberg, citing a statement from the company.

Leonid Radvinsky died at the age of 43, according to the company, which added, “We are deeply saddened to announce the death of Leo Radvinsky. He passed away peacefully after a long battle with cancer.”

Radvinsky’s death raises new questions about the platform’s future ownership, especially since he reportedly placed his majority stake in a trust in 2024.

According to his website, Radvinsky donated to several charities, including Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, West Suburban Humane Society, and EB Research Partnership.

Radvinsky studied economics at Northwestern University and by 2018 had bought a majority stake in OnlyFans and helped transform the video content platform into an adult-content subscription business’ powerhouse that reshaped how women monetize their bodies.

OnlyFans was founded in 2016 and exploded in popularity during the Covid pandemic. Some of the latest data from 2024 showed the website had 4.6 million creators, 377 million fans, and $1.4 billion in revenue.

In a separate report by platform search engine OnlyGuid, Americans spent an estimated $2.6 billion on OnlyFans in 2025.

A little less than one year ago, OnlyFans’ parent company, Fenix International Ltd., was reportedly in talks to sell the video platform at an estimated $8 billion valuation.

None of these talks resulted in a completed sale, at least publicly confirmed.

The head of the International Energy Agency intensified his apocalyptic warning about the global energy crisis, stating early Monday that the US-Israel war with Iran has sparked a shock far greater than the twin oil crises of the 1970s and the turmoil from the war in Ukraine combined.

US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury has entered its fourth week, and emerging from the fog of war is the understanding that 44 energy assets across the Gulf region have been severely or very severely damaged by either U.S. and allied forces or by Iranian forces, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who spoke at a media event in Australia on Monday.

“This crisis, as things stand, is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” Birol warned at the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra.

So far, the conflict has removed 11 million barrels of oil per day from global supply, which is more than the two prior oil shocks combined.

There are concerns that repairs to QatarEnergy’s damaged LNG facility could take up to five years, while the disruption to energy flows has sparked a fuel crisis across Asia and is set to affect fertilizer and food supplies, as well as helium, potentially jeopardizing AI chip production.

“The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible,” Birol said.

As of 0710 ET, Brent crude futures plunged 11% on President Trump’s Truth Social desesclation comments – a sign the administration needs an offramp to avoid a further energy crisis globally, but more importantly, one at home with fuel prices at the pump exploding higher.

Overnight, President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint or face a bombing campaign targeting Iran’s power plants.

There were reports overnight that the Trump administration was preparing a diplomatic off-ramp plan, but Iran says the expanding war has effectively shut the door.

Betting website Polymarket shows that ten new wallets are betting $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by the end of March.

“Almost no history, all created around the same time. Potential payout: over $1,000,000,” the Polymarket History account wrote on X.

🚨 NEW SUSPICIOUS WALLETS

10 fresh wallets just loaded over $160,000
on a ceasefire by end of March

Almost no history
all created around the same time

Potential payout: over $1,000,000 https://t.co/QvC48Md5iD pic.twitter.com/XzwBBLyBXz

— PolymarketHistory (@PolymarketStory) March 22, 2026

On Friday, Birol told the Financial Times in an exclusive interview that the world is severely underestimating the scale of the Gulf energy shock and that it may take at least six months to restore disrupted oil and gas flows.

Related:

• Morgan Stanley Explains How Central Banks Are Reacting To The Historic Energy Shock

• “Tactically More Defensive”: Top Goldman Trader Muses On Macro, Markets, & The Middle East

“It will be six months for some [sites] to be operational, others much longer,” Birol warned.

Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to “very good and productive conversations” on a “total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone “any and all military strikes” against Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days…

Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war. 

Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US. 

The reaction to Trump’s statement – as you might expect – is a crash lower in crude…

…though still well above pre-war levels…

…and spike higher in stocks…

…still below pre-war levels)…

What did the oil producers know?

Oil down 14% https://t.co/U69AoffNF2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 23, 2026

Bonds and bullion are bid…

TACOs came early this week… or is it Mission Accomplished?

Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”

How long before Tehran denies contact?

An Air Canada Express CRJ-900 regional jet operated by Jazz Aviation collided with a fire truck while landing at New York’s LaGuardia Airport (LGA) late Sunday night at 23:40 ET, instantly killing the pilot and co-pilot. There were approximately 76 people on board.

BREAKING: Several injuries after Air Canada plane and firetruck collide on runaway at New York’s LaGuardia Airport pic.twitter.com/cO6u5HD1YA

— BNO News (@BNONews) March 23, 2026

The flight-tracking website FlightRadar24 said data show Flight AC8646 from Montreal landed on Runway 4 and was rolling down the runway when it struck the fire truck.

FlightRadar24 shows that Flight AC8646’s groundspeed was around 24 mph at the time of the incident.

Early Monday, Kathryn Garcia, executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, told reporters that 41 passengers and crew members were taken to the hospital, with 32 later released. She said some passengers sustained very serious injuries.

LaGuardia remains closed to operations following last night’s incident involving an Air Canada CRJ and a firefighting vehicle. The NOTAM is in effect until 18:00 GMT (2 PM local time).

More: https://t.co/RfxyZrWEtY pic.twitter.com/dqczhdcJB7

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) March 23, 2026

Local authorities said LaGuardia Airport is closed and may remain shut until 14:00 ET.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In Sweden, a Christian couple is going through a nightmare that captures the growing bias and targeting of religious families in Europe. Daniel and Bianca Samson have been fighting to regain custody of their daughters since 2022 after the government cited their regular church attendance and faith as warranting their removal.

The parents, with the help of the Alliance Defending Freedom International, were delivered another blow after the European Court of Human Rights refused to accept their appeal as “inadmissible.”

This saga began when their eldest daughter had a fight with her parents over being denied a smartphone and makeup.

She contacted police and made a false report of abuse.

However, Sara, quickly retracted the allegation and police found no evidence of abuse.

Nevertheless, the state took both girls — aged 10 and 11 at the time –and refused to allow them to return home.

The government alleged that they found evidence of “religious extremism” and, according to ADF, cited the family’s habit of attending church three times a week.

It also cited strict religious upbringing in the home.

In the United States, the findings would be glaring violations of the free exercise clause of the First Amendment. In Sweden, it is a viable basis for taking away your children.

So these girls want to go home and the parents want to restore their family.

The Swedish government and courts refuse to allow it.

They are still separated after the parents successfully completed state-mandated parenting courses.

They also were denied requests to move the girls into foster homes in Romania, where they live.

The Swedish Supreme Court refused to hear the case last year, but the European Court of Human Rights said that they had failed “to exhaust legal remedies in Sweden.”

Now, according to the ADF International, the government is moving to place the girls up for adoption.

The children have moved from foster home to foster home, including allegedly one placement that resulted in one of the girl’s suffering physical and mental health issues. She ultimately tried to commit suicide, according to the family.

I have only found articles attesting to the removal on the grounds of the family’s religious faith and practices. The implications are chilling if true. This family appears to have done everything demanded of them as their daughters begged to return home.

It is a case worthy of inquiry by the Administration in defense of religious liberty.

A report from the Permanent Citizens Advisory Committee suggests that congestion pricing in New York City is increasing subway use, according to Bloomberg.

The policy charges most drivers a $9 toll to enter parts of Manhattan, encouraging some commuters and leisure travelers to shift from driving to public transit.

Data from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority shows subway ridership reached 1.28 billion rides in 2025, a 7.7% increase from the previous year and more than double the 3.7% growth recorded in 2024. Even with the increase, ridership remains about 75% of what it was before the pandemic.

Most of the growth came from weekend and discretionary trips rather than weekday commuting. Weekend ridership rose by nearly 22 million rides, a 9.4% increase year over year. Morning rush trips into the tolled Manhattan zone rose by about 7%, while weekend entries climbed roughly 7.5%.

Bloomberg writes that traffic has also declined since the toll began. According to MTA data, about 72,600 fewer vehicles entered the congestion zone each day in 2025, an 11% drop.

Higher ridership has helped increase transit revenue. Subway fares generated $2.97 billion in 2025, up from $2.82 billion in 2024. That income helps service roughly $17 billion in long-term debt backed by transit fare revenue.

The policy has drawn criticism from opponents including Phil Murphy and Donald Trump, though a federal judge ruled that efforts to end the program were unlawful.

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

Over half a million balsa hardwood trees are being illegally logged in the Amazon rainforest every year to feed the massive demand for wind turbines in many parts of the world. Balsa is a lightweight but strong wood that is commonly used in the core of giant turbine blades. It can make up around 7% of the blade and each set of three can use up to 40 trees.

This discovery is a genuine shock and follows an exclusive investigation by the Daily Sceptic. It adds to the huge ecological toll that the ‘green’ wind turbines are taking on the natural environment.

These inefficient, unreliable, unsightly monsters require a large footprint on land and sea, kill millions of bats, decimate raptor populations, sweep the air of quadrillions of insects and alter local ecology on both land and sea. 

Nobody would install one in a free market, so they require vast financial subsidies to produce expensive electricity.

Given what is known about annual balsa production, the scale of illegal logging and the demands of wind turbine manufactures, it is not difficult to arrive at a possible Amazon forest yearly loss of over half a million trees. Most commercial balsa is exported by Ecuador and it has produced approximately 500,000 cubic metres annually in recent years, or about 80,000 metric tonnes. Around 55% of production is thought to end up in wind turbines and each group of three requires about 10.5m3 a set. Each set requires about 40 trees so annual balsa consumption for wind turbines equates to 1,047,619. Balsa is a relatively fast growing tropical wood and until the soaring demand from turbines kicked in, it was harvested in sustainable plantations. But since the turn of the decade, this sustainable harvest cannot keep up with demand. In a damning survey, the Environment Investigation Agency (EIA) found that exports were boosted by up to 50% following illegal logging in virgin rainforest.

Halve the turbine consumption of 1,047,619 trees and the illegal logging amounts to around 523,810 mature specimens. This figure is likely to be controversial so the Daily Sceptic has shown its workings-out in full. But any substantial annual cull is horrific, and far outstrips the one-off loss of 100,000 tropical rainforest trees logged to build a convenient road for delegates attending the recent ‘save the forest’ COP30 meeting in the Brazilian city of Belém.

Blind eyes are of course turned to the illegal logging, and have been for some time.

In 2020, it was reported that 20,000 balsa trees were illegally felled between March and September in the Achuar indigenous territory along Ecuador’s Copataza River. Other reports refer to intense illegal logging, with some estimates noting the removal of 75% of the trees in some areas.

The EIA report that was published in 2024 was damning. Investigators toured many of the illegal logging sites and charged that most, if not all, exporters turned to natural forests as a “convenient and immediate replacement” when plantations were quickly depleted of older trees. The areas under attack were noted to be some of the last intact forest landscapes in the country. They were said to be unique protected areas and emblematic indigenous territories. Traders are said to have told the EIA that the logging of balsa was taking place “from north to south across most of the Amazonian provinces of the country”. It is estimated that at least 50% of production is currently being supplied by these illegal means. Blending of plantation wood with illegal logging is thought to vary between 10% to 70% depending on the exporter.

The EIA report gained little mainstream media or political attention when it was published, although the body is an established NGO, founded in the UK in 1984 with offices in the UK and Europe. For the narrative-driven mainstream, this type of upsetting news is simply too hot to handle.

However there have been attempts by turbine manufactures and supporters to suggest that balsa is being replaced in parts of the turbine core by various synthetic polymer foam substitutes. This is true, but balsa remains in popular use due to its excellent strength-to-weight ratio. Hybrid designs are said to have become more common, with balsa used in high-shear and other critical areas. In these areas it still holds an advantage over foams. But overall production figures suggest wind turbines are still using a great deal of the wood. Ecuadorean production is said to have spiked around 2020 with a previous sustainable total of 33,000 tonnes rising to 75,000, driven by Chinese turbines manufactures. It is a little difficult to get exact production figures but sources such as the EIA and UN Comtrade suggest exports of 80-100,000 tonnes in 2021, 60-80,000 in 2022, and 50-80,000 in 2023 and 2024.

After the spike, production has stabilised but at levels that can only have been possible by massive looting of the rainforest. It is obvious that a great deal of this is supported by huge increases in Chinese wind turbine manufacture. Overall figures for both domestic and export production are not available in one place, but credible estimate suggest monetary total of $8-12 billion in 2021 has risen to nearly $16 billion in 2024 with the projection for 2025 edging towards $18 billion.

The annual loss of balsa trees in virgin rainforests is unnecessary ecological rape traceable back to ideologues driving a hard-Left Net Zero fantasy. The Daily Septic has attempted to put an annual number on the loss using known figures. Our workings-out are supplied so others, if they wish, can contest our assumptions and maths and arrive at different conclusions. But few will be able to cover up the fact that there are very significant and continuing annual illegal logging balsa losses.

Via Remix News,

Spain is facing mounting concern over the long-term consequences of years of large-scale Moroccan migration, as warnings grow that a sizable and increasingly organized community could begin to exert coordinated political influence.

Official figures cited by La Región show that nearly 900,000 Moroccan nationals were living in Spain in 2024, making them the largest Muslim group in the country.

More than 226,000 are concentrated in Catalonia, with numbers continuing to rise sharply.

What is now causing alarm is not just the scale, but the potential for political mobilization.

The Spanish news outlet referenced a 2023 speech by Enaam Mayara, then-president of the Moroccan parliament’s upper chamber, in which he openly called on Moroccans living in Spain to enter politics, join parties, and take part in elections.

His goal was clear: to build influence inside Spanish institutions and defend Moroccan national interests from within.

“The community in our northern neighbor should be encouraged to participate in that country’s political process,” Mayara said.

“Members of the Moroccan community should be encouraged to become members of parliament in the country of their nationality in order to defend the interests of their homeland whenever necessary.”

“The Moroccan community must integrate into Spanish political parties to form a lobby that defends Morocco,” he added.

The comments sparked fears that what began as migration could evolve into coordinated political leverage.

More recently, Morocco has moved to strengthen its grip on diaspora identity through education.

Earlier this month, in response to the suspension of the Arabic language and Moroccan culture program in the Spanish regions of Madrid and Murcia, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita called for reforms to overseas teaching programs that could trigger a “qualitative transformation” in how Arabic language and Moroccan culture are taught to children living abroad.

The changes will place greater responsibility for diaspora education under a new institutional structure, with a focus on expanding cultural and linguistic ties between Morocco and its citizens overseas.

The push comes as Moroccan-funded programs are already deeply embedded in Spain’s education system.

Hundreds of schools across the country offer Arabic language and Moroccan culture classes financed by Rabat, with teachers selected and paid by Moroccan authorities.

La Región notes that the Arabic Language and Moroccan Culture Teaching Program (PLACM) is already being implemented in 12 autonomous communities, with the most participating schools being in Catalonia at 125 institutions. This is followed by Andalusia with 96, and Madrid with 70.

The combination of expanding state-backed education and political messaging raises serious questions about long-term integration, and whether future generations will be shaped as much by Moroccan institutions as by Spanish society.

Read more here…