Amid Shortage Fears, ASP Isotopes Completes Drilling For Helium Project Ahead Of Schedule
Shortly after we posted a breakdown on the incoming helium supply disruption from Qatar for our premium subscribers, ASP Isotopes announced that they had completed the well drilling required for Phase 1 of the Renergen Helium Project approximately four months ahead of schedule. The achievement marks a key operational milestone at the Virginia Gas Project in South Africa, substantially reducing execution risks for the planned helium and LNG production ramp.
The stock spiked higher on the news…
Drilling operations, which restarted in April 2025 following bridge loan funding from ASP Isotopes ahead of the Renergen acquisition, have now achieved the required cumulative nameplate flow rate. Results from the Phase 1C exploration campaign show gas flow rates that meet or exceed previously estimated type curves. Some recent wells delivered flows up to 16 times higher than earlier ones, thanks to improved exploration techniques and reservoir modeling by a U.S.-based expert team.
“This marks a watershed moment for our plans for helium production at the Virginia Gas Project,” said Paul Mann, Executive Chairman and CEO of ASP Isotopes. “This result, together with the cumulative flow data from the broader campaign, demonstrate that the field is capable of sustaining the gas volumes required to operate the helium plant at efficient capacity once wells are tied into the plant”.
Next steps include tying the new wells into the processing plant over the coming months. Once production-ready, total gas flow is expected to support Phase 1 nameplate capacity. Production will ramp in line with customer demand and offtake agreements, with discussions ongoing for LNG and liquid helium supplies. Phase 1 targets output of 2,500 GJ per day of LNG and 58 MCF per day of liquid helium upon completion in 2026.
As we’ve thoroughly tracked, this progress builds directly on the company’s acquisition of Renergen. Following regulatory clearance reported here in December 2025, the deal integrated high-concentration helium assets into ASPI’s portfolio of critical materials. Helium serves not only as a vital input for semiconductors, quantum computing, medical imaging, and space applications but also as a carrier gas in the company’s proprietary isotope enrichment processes.
Readers will recall our earlier coverage of ASP Isotopes’ Silicon-28 supply contracts and U.S. radiopharmacy acquisition in October 2025, the private placement backed by funds linked to Eric and Donald Trump Jr. in November, and more recent advances including a major nuclear operator MOU and progress toward commercial uranium enrichment. This latest update on the helium front further diversifies ASPI’s exposure across nuclear fuel, medical isotopes, quantum materials, and now reliable helium supply amid global constraints, including disruptions tied to Qatar production.
Iran Says Talks With US Are ‘Fake News’ After Trump Threatens To ‘Just Keep Bombing’, Wants Hormuz To Be ‘Jointly Controlled’
Summary
Trump announces “productive” talks with Iran, “postpones” military strikes for 5 days
Iran Foreign Ministry + Parliament speaker say no talks have happened, after Trump said “speaking with a top person in Iran”, says will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail
Trump says Hormuz will be “jointly controlled”
Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, an Israeli official said. US says Israel “will be pleased”
Iran publishes broad list of potential regional targets: threatens “the entire region will go dark.”
IEA Executive Director warns of 1970s level oil shocks: “No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.” Russia mediates in call with Tehran.
Market response: oil down, yields down, stocks up (but all off their kneejerk extremes)
“The market woke up to some potentially good news,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“But follow-through on any relief rally will likely require tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front. We’re still living in a headline-driven market.”
The prediction market odds of a ceasefire by April 30th are now above 50%…
“It is impossible to tell whether this signals genuine progress towards an off-ramp for the war, or Trump ‘zig-zagging’ to buy time and keep oil from breaking out towards $150,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“It should though offer at least a brief respite on rates – possibly more.”
Iran FM, Parliament Speaker: No Talks With US, “Fake News”
Finally a little ‘clarity’ from a top Iranian state source: Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says they had no talks with the US, via IRNA. “In recent days, friendly countries sent messages indicating US request to talks to end the war but Iran did not respond,” the statement says.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson affirms that the stance on Strait of Hormuz, conditions to end war did not change, according to more from IRNA. Importantly, state media further says the US tried to negotiate with Iran via intermediaries. Previously, Iranian officials have made clear they want to impose more costs on their attackers. Huge direct confirmation of Iran’s rejection/denial:
2/ No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 23, 2026
The question of whether Israel actually wants de-escalation remains a big one, as Israel has continued attacking the Islamic Republic even as Trump touts alleged indirect dialogue. This was Trump earlier in the day… some surprising words to say the least:
Reporter: “what about the Strait of Hormuz, who is going to be in control of that?”
President Trump Refutes Iran’s Denial of Talks, says Hormuz Will Be “Jointly Controlled”
Trump says US, Iran talks have “major points of agreement”.
President Trump responded to reporters questions about Iran’s denial of talks:
TRUMP: IRAN NEEDS BETTER PUBLIC RELATIONS PEOPLE
TRUMP: IRAN WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL, WE WOULD LIKE A DEAL TOO
TRUMP: WE’LL GET TOGETHER WITH IRAN PROBABLY BY PHONE
TRUMP: SPEAKING WITH A TOP PERSON IN IRAN
TRUMP: PERSON WE’RE SPEAKING WITH IS NOT IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER
TRUMP: WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER
Trump then laid out what Washington wants:
TRUMP: WE WANT NO ENRICHMENT, WE ALSO WANT THE ENRICHED URANIUM
TRUMP: WE WANT TO SEE NO NUCLEAR BOMB OR WEAPON FOR IRAN
On Hormuz:
*TRUMP: HORMUZ WILL BE OPEN VERY SOON `IF IT WORKS’
*TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE JOINTLY CONTROLLED
On oil prices:
*TRUMP: OIL PRICES WILL ‘DROP LIKE A ROCK’ WHEN DEAL IS DONE
On funding:
TRUMP: THE $200B MILITARY FUNDING WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE
Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, according to an Israeli official, who asked Bloomberg not to be identified discussing private matters.
Israel was told about Trump’s social media post ahead of time, two officials said.
*TRUMP: WE JUST SPOKE WITH ISRAEL A LITTLE WHILE AGO
*TRUMP: ISRAEL WILL BE VERY HAPPY WITH WHAT WE HAVE ON IRAN
President Trump, asked about Iranian media denying talks with the US, says the most recent set of negotiations took place last night, Fox Business reports.
He said talks involved Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and their counterparts, adding a deal with Iran could be reached in five days or sooner.
Russia as Potential Mediator
As we reported, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shortly after Trump claimed Washington and Tehran were dialoguing. Russia moved to position itself as a mediator. Its Foreign Ministry said Lavrov called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran,” in a call initiated by Tehran.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the conflict with Iran is “not of their making” and is already causing major economic disruption. “Whatever your view of Iran, this war is not of their making,” he said. And the UK too has weighed in on Trump’s messaging, with a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer responding: “Any reports of productive talks are welcome.” The statement indicated: “We’ve always said that swift resolution to the war is in global interests and the Strait of Hormuz specifically needs to be reopened.”
Iran State Media Casts Trump As In Retreat, Who Warns US Can Just ‘Keep Bombing’
President Trump in Monday remarks to the press stated that the United States will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry made clear there is “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington despite President Trump’s early Monday assertion that weekend discussions were productive.
“Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington,” the ministry said, according to state broadcaster IRIB. It added that Trump’s statements were “part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans,” which could include occupying or blockading Iran’s critical Kharg Island.
Weekend major air strikes targeted the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran:
Multiple major air strikes target the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran today. The impact of the blast wave is visible at the end.
The Dezful air base is home to Iran’s F-5 fighter jets.
To recount, Trump said the US and Iran had held talks on the “complete and total resolution of hostilities” in the Middle East and that he would delay attacks on Iranian power plants by five days after “productive conversations” with Tehran. Iranian media has cast Trump’s remarks as a retreat: “Fearing a response from Iran, Trump backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum,” IRIB said.
Iranian media outlets to issue some kind of response/ reaction so far are Fars News, and Tasnim – both considered to have close ties with the IRGC.
Irna, or IRIB, the more traditional govt-linked outfits, yet to issue any comment.
Amid the headline pingpong, Yields are rebounding higher, along with oil as stocks retreat from earlier gains…
So who’s lying, and is the truth somewhere inbetween the bombastic headlines?
“This feels very similar to Trump’s tariff playbook — delay, create optionality, and ultimately step back,” said Manish Singh, chief investment officer at Crossbridge Capital.
“If cooler heads prevail, the outcome here could be a shift toward negotiation rather than confrontation.”
The key now will be how Donald Trump takes the Iranian response.
“The tone is more upbeat now. But it would be naïve to assume the situation will now be resolved to the satisfaction of all the main combatants and victims of hostilities,” said Bloomberg macro strategist, Simon White.
“Further, negative effects from higher energy prices are now baked in. Stock dynamics will continue to remain negative while an abundance of potential pitfalls remain ahead.”
There’s a chance he will find the situation embarrassing and that matters to markets because he would be more likely to swing back towards a more belligerent stance.
Israeli Strikes A Mere Hour After Trump Announced US Halt
Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Iran about an hour after Trump announced the halt to US attacks. “The Air Force has begun, a short while ago, another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran,” the Israeli Air Force said on X.
Various reports suggest that Trump waving an olive branch will not be received well by Israeli leadership. “For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the Israeli cabinet, anything but escalation and complete regime change in Iran is a catastrophe, says Akiva Eldar, an Israeli author and former columnist for the Haaretz newspaper, referring to how Trump’s announcement of talks with Iran was received in Israel,” Al Jazeera writes.
“Trump going back to negotiations means that Israel will not be able to remove the Iranian nuclear threat, which has become Netanyahu’s flag, his claim to fame,” Eldar told the outlet.
There continues to be evidence of severe damage and destruction in Tehran and across the Islamic Republic:
Just ahead of Trump’s decision to delay further strikes, Tehran threatened to expand attacks on US and regional infrastructure. The weekend saw Iranian military spokesman Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari warn Iran would target all US -used fuel, energy, technology, and desalination infrastructure in the region if its own energy sites were hit.
Trump “Postpones” Military Strikes On Iran for 5 Days, Citing “Productive” Talks
Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning just after 7am ET, following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to “very good and productive conversations” on a “total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone “any and all military strikes” against Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days…
The front-running of his self-imposed ultimatum deadline (around 7pmET tonight) has caught market participants off guard. Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war.
Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US.
There has been no comment from Israeli officials.
The reaction to Trump’s statement – as you might expect – is a crash lower in crude…
…though still well above pre-war levels (as traders are still pricing in a prolonged hit from higher energy prices, even if there is relief following the latest headlines)…
TACOs came early this week… or is it Mission Accomplished?
Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”
Billionaire hedge fund manager, Dan Loeb had some thoughts…
An oil trader friend of mine shared this Arabic saying.
On Monday, Iran’s Supreme Defense Council threatened to deploy “various types of naval mines” across the Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked, according to Tasnim. The warning followed Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after which he said the US would strike all Iranian power plants.
“The entire Persian Gulf will be in conditions similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long period of time,” the council said, according to Tasnim. It added that “non-hostile countries” could transit the strait “through direct coordination with Iran.”
Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Mehr news wrote: “In case of the slightest attack on the electricity infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the entire region will go dark.” Here’s the target list it shared:
Saudi Arabia
The Village (near Al-Khobar): gas power plant (4,000+ MW)
Ras Tanura (Sharqiya Province): major oil and gas facility / power infrastructure
United Arab Emirates
Barakah (Al Dhafra, Abu Dhabi): nuclear power plant (~5,600 MW)
Jebel Ali (South Dubai): gas power and desalination complex (multi-GW capacity)
Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park (Dubai): large-scale solar power project
Qatar
Ras Laffan (north Qatar): gas power plant (one of the largest in Qatar)
Umm Al Houl (south of Doha): gas power + desalination plant (multi-GW capacity)
Kuwait
Al-Zour South: oil and gas power plant
Al-Zour North: combined-cycle power plant (multi-GW capacity)
Shaqaya Energy Park (west Kuwait): solar and wind renewable energy complex
State media published this graphic:
Hormuz Crisis Could Surpass Oil Shocks of 1970s
…if there’s no off-ramp soon – that’s according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. Here’s what he said according to the Associated Press:
The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.
“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.
The crisis in the Middle East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.
Ship traffic through the strait has dropped from about 100 vessels a week before the war to seven, according to Kpler. Iran has attacked multiple commercial vessels since the US-Israeli assault began, causing fires, damage, and at least one death, and has laid mines in the waterway.
War in Lebanon Expands
On the Lebanon front, Israel said a civilian was killed near the Lebanese border died from friendly fire, not a Hezbollah attack. The Israeli military said initial findings showed Ofer Moskowitz was killed by artillery fire intended to support troops in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah had earlier claimed a rocket strike killed the civilian in the Israeli town of Misgav Am; however, the Israeli military says it is investigating whether its own forces were responsible.
Israel’s defense minister has meanwhile ordered expanded destruction of bridges and homes in southern Lebanon, raising concerns about a deeper, entrenched buffer zone. Over one million people have fled their homes and over 1,000 have been killed, according to the Lebanese government. Israeli officials warned residents across large parts of southern Lebanon to evacuate or face danger as a ground operation continues, which they say is aimed at protecting northern Israeli communities.
Pre-Trump Overnight News
And while we wait, let’s take a closer look at global markets prior to the Trump headline, they were all sharply led on the downside by KOSPI which plunged 6.5%. China – SHCOMP and SHPROP were lower by 350bps as well with news outlets highlighting China as a % of global GDP is on the decline. Europe holding on a relative basis but major indices (were) down ~200bps. In commodities, European gas continues reverses previously up 5% to $65 to now down 5% to $55 – still essentially doubling vs. a month ago. Crude (was) steady but elevated with WTI approaching $99 (now $85 post headlines … ).
Precious metals (were) weak with gold off 500bps to $4,270 (now approaching flattish). Yields remain the other part of this difficult equation with the 10-year up to 4.43% (now 4.38%) highest levels since July, breaking out above levels earlier in 2026 despite additional rate cuts now potentially back on the table in market expectations. Dollar following with DXY above $100. Bitcoin flattish but closer to local lows $68.6k (now $71.6k). Macro trading likely to dominate trading & price action today, particularly in light on quiet micro backdrop this morning. The only data on deck is the Chicago Fed and Construction Spending. On the data front, we’ll get US construction spending, Eurozone consumer confidence and Japanese CPI later this morning. Fed’s Miran speaks at 8:45am.
Looking at premarket movers away from the non stop newsflow, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +0.5%, Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +1.8%, Meta +1.4%, Nvidia +2.1%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +1.6%). Energy stocks are falling and airline stocks are rising after Trump said he told US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) soars 16% after the drug developer provided maintenance data from a mid-stage trial that showed its experimental therapy deepened responses in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.
DraftKings (DKNG) gains 8% and Flutter (FLUT) rises 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that US senators are set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.
Synopsys (SNPS) gains 3% after people familiar said activist investor Elliott Investment Management has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the chip-design software maker and plans to push for changes.
Valvoline rises 2% after Stifel raised the recommendation to buy, saying a recent selloff has created a buying opportunity for the automotive services company as concerns about more expensive base oil and gasoline are largely priced into the stock.
In other news, BBG reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities. UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the Iran war could force him to pare back spending, although it won’t fundamentally alter the bank’s overall strategy. Owners of luxury brands ranging from Gucci to Fendi and Bulgari opened more stores in Europe last year despite a slowdown in the wider sector.
Trump’s comments sparked a sharp turnaround in markets after the two sides escalated rhetoric over the weekend, with hours left before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices have fueled fears that central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy.
“Assuming this holds and there is a path toward a cessation of hostilities, we can expect stabilization in equities, panic liquidation, and crucially, an unwinding of some of the very aggressive rate hikes which have been priced into markets,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY.
Since it is pointless to discuss where stocks are since moves are +/- 1-2% every minute, here is a quick recap of …
Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of talks with Iran to end the war. Iran’s semi-official local media denied any talks had taken place: BBG
The Trump administration is telling foreign officials and others that it will not reschedule a summit between the president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping until the Iran war ends. Politico
Donald Trump’s new tariff plans risk getting bogged down in protracted legal challenges as the president relies on obscure laws to wage his trade war after the top court in the US ruled many of his previous duties illegal. FT
The BoJ is laying the groundwork for tweaks to its policy language in April, keeping alive the chance of a near-term interest rate hike as the weak yen and Middle East conflict pile inflationary pressures on the economy.
Japanese companies have agreed to raise wages by more than 5% for a third consecutive year, early results from annual labor talks showed on Monday, reflecting sustained gains in pay that policymakers see as key to fostering durable economic growth. RTRS
A Cuban official said the country is preparing for a possible military assault as Trump increases the economic pressure on the country. BBG
LaGuardia Airport was closed until at least 2 p.m. after an Air Canada Express plane collided with a fire truck shortly after landing. Two pilots died in the crash. BBG
Truckers are being “crushed” by the surge in diesel expense, and US consumers will soon feel the increase as the whole supply chain is forced to adjust prices higher to maintain profitability. WSJ
Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades. The economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job. Even before the war in Iran sent energy prices higher, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was heading in the wrong direction. The war threatens to push inflation higher still in the coming months, and investors now view rate increases to be more likely than cuts this year. WSJ
ARE WE OVERSOLD? That has been one of the most frequent questions this week – and there is not a ton of reassuring evidence just yet. A tactical bounce is clearly possible given recent price action, but the broader setup does not yet point to capitulation. Locally, only ~14% of S&P stocks have hit oversold levels. For context, that figure reached over 50% in April ’25 and north of 40% during Q3 ’22: Goldman
OpenAI Lures Private-Equity Firms With 17.5% Guaranteed Returns As AI Rivals Race For Enterprise Deals
OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is offering private-equity firms a more generous financial package than rival Anthropic as the two artificial-intelligence companies court buyout shops to create joint ventures aimed at raising fresh capital and accelerating the rollout of enterprise AI products.
To lure PE firms, OpenAI is promising investors a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, a figure significantly above what is typical for preferred equity instruments, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke with Reuters. The company is also providing early access to its latest AI models as it seeks commitments from firms including TPG Inc. and Advent International Corp., the people said. OpenAI has recently intensified its focus on corporate customers, an area where Anthropic has long held an edge.
Anthropic’s parallel effort offered no such guaranteed returns, the people said.
The timing of these overtures is notable. Just weeks ago, both companies became embroiled in a high-profile dispute with the Pentagon – with Anthropic walking away from a potential $200 million Defense Department contract after insisting on being the final arbiter over safeguards preventing its Claude AI from being used in fully autonomous weapons systems or mass surveillance of American citizens. The Pentagon responded by labeling Anthropic a “supply chain risk” – an unprecedented move against a U.S. technology company – blacklisting it from federal agencies and posing a risk to industry partners who also work with the Pentagon. President Trump directed all government entities to cease using Anthropic’s tools. The company has sued over this.
Hours after the deal fell apart on Feb 28, OpenAI announced its own agreement to supply AI tools for the Pentagon’s classified systems. The deal, initially criticized as opportunistic, triggered internal dissent at OpenAI, including the resignation of a senior robotics executive, and a consumer backlash that caused a surge in ChatGPT uninstalls among ‘I bought this Tesla before Elon went crazy’ types. OpenAI later amended the terms to strengthen guardrails.
And apparently there’s no such thing as bad news, as Anthropic’s stance earned it a surge in popularity: Its Claude app climbed to the top of U.S. download charts, with sign-ups hitting record levels.
The Race Is On
The joint ventures would enable both companies to rapidly deploy customized AI across hundreds of established companies owned by private-equity firms, creating deep integration that boosts customer retention at scale.
“There’s a big race to lock in as much enterprise, as many desks as possible,” said Matt Kropp at Boston Consulting Group’s AI unit. “Once a customized AI model is integrated into a company’s systems, switching becomes much harder.”
That said, some buyout firms have passed on the deals – citing concerns about economics, flexibility, and profit. Thoma Bravo LP opted out after internal reviews, with Managing Partner Orlando Bravo questioning the long-term profit profile, people familiar said.
Skeptics argue large PE firms already have direct access to the AI providers and question whether the ventures deliver enough incremental value. Others see pressure on buyout shops to showcase AI strategies to their own investors.
Still, discussions continue with several firms expected to take smaller stakes. OpenAI is in advanced talks to raise about $4 billion for its venture at a roughly $10 billion pre-money valuation, with participants including TBG, Bain Capital and Brookfield Asset Management.Anthropic has approached Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman and Permira for its enterprise-focused push.
Key Events This Week: PMIs, Productivity And Consumer Sentiment
As has become customary for Monday, we have seen a dramatic surge in risk assets (3rd Monday in a row) on what at least superficially appears to be de-escalation after Trump announced strikes against Iran’s power plant would be delayed by 5 days as a result of talks with Iran, talks which at least Iran’s domestic news sources have so far denied.
And the market lurches from headline to headline, it feels somewhat trivial to focus on the week ahead data calendar, but there will nevertheless be interest in the global flash PMIs for March, due tomorrow. As DB’s Jim Reid notes, these surveys cover the period through roughly the end of last week and should therefore be heavily influenced by developments in the conflict. Elsewhere, inflation indicators are due in the UK, Japan and Australia, although these will now be quite backward looking. The German IFO survey on Wednesday may provide another timely read on sentiment, and Lagarde’s speech the same day will also be closely watched. The week concludes with the final March reading of the University of Michigan US consumer sentiment survey, which incorporates an additional couple of weeks of responses from the initial reading. DB’s economists expect a modest downward revision to 55.0 from the preliminary 55.5 as more respondents reflect heightened geopolitical uncertainty related to Iran. More important for policymakers, however, will be the inflation expectations components. Both one year and five to ten year expectations have historically tracked energy prices closely, making them particularly relevant in the current environment.
Overall the data calendar is light in the US, and even if it were busier it would likely pale in significance relative to events in the Middle East. On the policy front, scheduled Fed appearances are limited, with only three officials due to speak. The first comes from Vice Chair Jefferson, who is set to deliver an outlook speech on Thursday. He is likely to broadly echo the themes laid out by Chair Powell at the post meeting press conference, where Powell placed greater emphasis on inflation dynamics and the outlook than on potential labor market weakness, giving the discussion a distinctly hawkish tone. Inflation, rather than employment, clearly remains the Fed’s primary concern at this stage of the cycle.
Any divergence by Jefferson from Powell’s messaging would more likely be aimed at tempering expectations of imminent tightening rather than endorsing them, particularly given the sharp repricing from roughly 62bps of cuts before the strikes on Iran to around 7bps of hikes this morning (although that number has also reversed after this morning’s newsflow). The same logic applies to remarks expected on Friday from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, both of whom are non voters this year and are also scheduled to deliver outlook speeches. In markets where incoming data is increasingly backward looking, there is limited value in dwelling on the remainder of the week ahead calendar, which is set out day by day at the end as usual.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday March 23
Data: US February Chicago Fed national activity index, January construction spending, Japan first survey of shunto results, Eurozone March consumer confidence
Central banks: ECB’s Escriva and Lane speak
Other: UK PM Starmer faces the House of Commons’ Liaison committee
Tuesday March 24
Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone flash March PMIs, US March Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Japan February national CPI, EU27 February new car registrations,
Central banks: ECB’s Kocher, Sleijpen, Cipollone and Lane speak
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)
Other: General election in Denmark
Wednesday March 25
Data: US February import price index, export price index, Q4 current account balance, UK February CPI, RPI, PPI, January house price index, Japan February PPI services, Germany March Ifo survey, Australia February CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Rehn and Kocher speak, BoE’s Greene speaks, BoJ minutes of the January meeting
Earnings: Jefferies, PDD Holdings
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
Thursday March 26
Data: US March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany April GfK consumer confidence, France March business confidence, consumer confidence, Italy March consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Eurozone February M3
Central banks: Norges Bank decision, Fed’s Jefferson speaks, ECB’s Guindos and Muller speak, BoE’s Breeden, Taylor and Greene speak, BoC’s Rogers speaks
Data: US March Kansas City Fed services activity, UK March GfK consumer confidence, February retail sales, China February industrial profits
Central banks: ECB consumer expectations survey, Fed’s Daly and Paulson speak
Earnings: Carnival, BYD
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the productivity and costs report on Tuesday and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Miran, Barr, and Cook, and Vice Chair Jefferson.
Monday, March 23
08:45 AM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will appear on Bloomberg TV. On February 26, Miran said, “Four cuts [in 2026] I think are appropriate. I’d rather get them sooner than later.” Additionally, on March 6, Miran said, “Labor demand is not strong enough because monetary policy is too tight… I think the labor market could use some more support from monetary policy.”
10:00 AM Construction spending, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%)
Tuesday, March 24
08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q4 final (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.8%, last +2.8%); Unit labor costs, Q4 final (GS +4.3%, consensus +3.4%, last +2.8%): We estimate that nonfarm productivity growth will be revised down by 1.1pp to +1.7% quarterly annualized in the second release for 2025Q4. Since 2019Q4, labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 2.2%, or 2.0-2.1% after adjusting for measurement distortions in the productivity statistics, a much stronger pace than the 1.5% average pace in the pre-pandemic cycle.
09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 51.2, last 51.6): S&P Global US services PMI, March preliminary (consensus 52.0, last 51.7)
06:30 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on the economic outlook and community development at the National Community Investment Conference in Phoenix. Speech text is expected. On February 17, Barr said, “Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time.” He also said, “With very low levels of job creation and also a low firing rate, there seems to be a tentative balance in labor supply and demand. But it is a delicate balance, and that means that the labor market could be especially vulnerable to negative shocks.”
Wednesday, March 25
08:30 AM Import price index, February (consensus +0.6%, last +0.2%); Export price index, February (consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%)
04:10 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a conversation on digital assets at the 2026 Digital Asset Summit in New York.
Thursday, March 26
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 21 (GS 205k, consensus 210k, last 205k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 14 (consensus 1,853k, last 1,857k): We estimate that initial jobless claims were unchanged around 205k. Initial claims remain below their average level in 2025H2 and the layoff rate edged down in January, suggesting that nationwide layoffs remain low despite the increase in alternative layoff measures in Q4 of last year.
04:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on financial stability at the Yale School of Management. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On February 4, Cook said, “[Recent] readings indicate that progress on inflation essentially stalled in 2025… After nearly five years of above-target inflation, it is essential that we maintain our credibility by returning to a disinflationary path and achieving our target in the relatively near future.” She also said, “The labor market is roughly in balance, but I am highly attentive to developments, knowing it can shift quickly.”
06:30 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will speak on the Fed’s balance sheet at the Economic Club of Miami. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
07:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at the Dallas Fed. On February 6, Jefferson said “I am cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook. I see signs suggesting that the labor market is stabilizing, that inflation can return to a path toward our 2% objective, and that sustainable economic growth will continue.”
07:10 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in an event at the Brookings Institution. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
Friday, March 27
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March final (GS 52.0, consensus 54.0, last 55.5): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, March final (GS 3.5%, last 3.2%)
11:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly will give introductory remarks at the San Francisco Fed’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference. On March 6, Daly said, “We really have to keep our eye on the labor market. But we also have inflation printing above our target and oil prices rising. How long it will last we don’t know. But both our goals are at risk now and we have to keep our eye on both.”
11:40 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed president Anna Paulson will give remarks at the San Francisco Fed’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.
Nearing Psychological Gas Price Level Where Consumers Drive Less
The latest AAA data show the national average price for regular gasoline at the pump is now just four cents below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon mark. This month’s surge in retail fuel prices (gasoline and diesel) marks the largest increase on record and is delivering a nasty shock to the pocketbooks of cash-strapped consumers.
Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note that when fuel prices spike to these “psychological threshold” levels, above $3 and approaching $4 a gallon, consumers tend to drive less and fill up their tanks less frequently.
“Historically, when retail gas prices increase (especially above the $3/gal psychological threshold, although that’s been rebased higher), consumers make the concerted decision to drive less, don’t always fill up their tanks (i.e., lower fill rates),” Herzog told clients on Friday.
But Herzog pointed back to history, noting that the real demand destruction for drivers comes when gasoline prices at the pump reach $ 5 a gallon.
She noted, “Further, we recognize that, in times of a significantly rising fuel-price environment, consumers may opt to trade down the fuel-price spectrum (i.e., from premium to regular).”
The vertical move in gasoline and diesel this month, according to AAA data, is record-setting. Gas prices at the pump have jumped nearly 33% on the month, far outpacing the Russia-Ukraine invasion in 2022 or the Iraq war, with data dating back to 2005. The shock here will certainly leave some cash-strapped drivers dialing back miles on the road.
Diesel spike! Small businesses are warning of shock (read here).
Herzog offered a warning that elevated “retail prices at the pump matter” because “low-income households spend 3x more of their incomes on gas vs. the average household, and broadly speaking, c-stores over-index to low-income consumers.”
Let’s not forget that pressure on pocketbooks from a fuel-pump shock may weigh on consumer sentiment if the spike proves not to be temporary. However, Trump headlines Monday morning may suggest the administration is finding an offramp to the conflict.
Last week I wrote that Zohran Mamdani is a f***ing moron has proposed a new estate tax that is not really aimed at billionaires but at ordinary New Yorkers whose so called wealth is largely tied up in the homes they spent decades paying off.
That argument may have sounded abstract to some readers, like a warning about unintended consequences that might or might not materialize. But we do not have to speculate about how these kinds of burdensome taxation policies play out. Other than the Laffer Curve, which exists for a reason and has existed for 50 years now, we have another real world example, and it is happening in a state that shares many of New York’s political instincts and fiscal habits.
Massachusetts recently implemented a new 4% surtax on income above one million dollars after voters approved the measure in 2022. Supporters framed it as a targeted, reasonable way to raise revenue from top earners in order to fund public priorities like education and transportation. In theory, it was precisely the kind of policy that politicians like Mamdani claim will generate large sums of money without broader economic consequences.
But, of course, the early data tells a more complicated and far less comforting story.
In 2023, the first year the surtax took effect, Massachusetts experienced a net outflow of $4.2 billion in adjusted gross income. That number increased eight percent from the prior year. This was not driven by a sudden collapse in population or some unrelated shock. It reflects a steady and measurable movement of income and the people who earn it out of the state. Even more telling is that this shift occurred despite the fact that overall migration patterns did not dramatically worsen. In other words, fewer people may have left, but those who did leave took significantly more income with them.
This is the dynamic that advocates of higher taxes on so called targeted groups consistently ignore. Taxes change behavior, particularly among people with the greatest flexibility to respond.
High earners, business owners, and investors do not passively absorb higher tax burdens if they have realistic alternatives. They look for jurisdictions that treat them more favorably, and in the United States those alternatives are abundant. States like Florida and New Hampshire offer dramatically lower tax burdens and have become magnets for precisely the kind of taxpayers that high tax states increasingly depend on.
Supporters of the Massachusetts surtax will point out that it has generated billions in new revenue, and that claim is accurate as far as it goes. What it leaves out is the longer term erosion of the tax base that can accompany those gains. When billions of dollars in income leave a state, that loss compounds over time through reduced investment, fewer business formations, and lower future tax collections. The short term revenue boost can obscure a slower but more consequential decline underneath.
Now consider what Mamdani is proposing in New York. His plan rests on the same magical thinking that drove the Massachusetts surtax, namely that the government can squeeze significantly more revenue out of a conveniently defined group without that group noticing or doing anything about it. This is a comforting theory if you spend most of your time in policy seminars and very little time observing how actual humans behave.
In the real world, people respond to incentives, especially when those incentives involve large sums of money and the option to simply leave. New York, of course, is already one of the most heavily taxed places in the country and has been bleeding residents to lower tax states for years. Piling on a dramatically more aggressive estate tax is not bold policy innovation. It is doubling down on a problem everyone can already see.
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What makes Mamdani’s proposal even more impressive, and by that I mean in the worst possible way, is how wide a net it casts while still pretending to target only the rich. Massachusetts at least aimed its surtax at income above one million dollars, which, while debatable policy, is at least rhetorically consistent. Mamdani wants to drop the estate tax threshold to $750,000, which in New York City is less a marker of wealth than a marker of having bought a house at some point in the last thirty years and not lost it. A modest home in Queens or Brooklyn plus a retirement account is enough to trip that wire. Apparently, in this framework, a retired city worker with a paid off house now qualifies as landed gentry. The rhetoric says oligarchs. The math says your parents.
The behavioral response here does not require a PhD in tax law to understand, which is perhaps why it gets so little attention from the people proposing it. Avoiding an estate tax is not like restructuring a business or navigating some obscure loophole. In many cases, it is as simple as changing your address. That is not a hypothetical. Retirees already move to states with lower taxes all the time. Mamdani’s plan just gives them one more very concrete reason to do it, preferably before the state gets a final look at their life savings. It turns out that when the choice is between leaving New York or handing over a large chunk of what you planned to pass on to your children, a nontrivial number of people will start browsing real estate in Florida.
The predictable result is then treated as some kind of mystery. Instead of a stable and growing stream of revenue extracted from the rich, you get a slow but steady erosion of the tax base as wealth, income, and taxpayers relocate to friendlier jurisdictions. That loss does not show up all at once, which makes it easy for policymakers to ignore in the short term while they celebrate the initial revenue bump. Over time, though, the math stops cooperating, and the response is almost always the same. If the rich are not paying enough, the definition of rich quietly expands until it includes whoever is still around.
New York does not need a crystal ball to see how this plays out. The preview is already running in places like Massachusetts. Ignoring it is not bold or visionary. It is just willful blindness. And if Mamdani’s proposal moves forward, the ending will not be surprising. It will be the same story New York has been telling for years, only faster, louder, and far more expensive for the people who do not have the option to leave.
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Iran Phones Russia Immediately On Heels Of Trump’s Announcement Of US-Iran Talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Sergei Lavrov quickly on the heels of President Trump early Monday having claimed Washington and Tehran had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities” – as the war is in its fourth week.
Moscow appears to be moving to position itself as a broker, with Russia’s foreign ministry announcing that FM Lavrov called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran,” in a call initiated by Tehran.
The Kremlin followed this by its spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating negotiations should have begun “yesterday” – adding that “this is the only way to effectively ease the catastrophically tense situation in the region.”
Trump had on Saturday unveiled a time-specific ultimatum which threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The clock is ticking on the 48-hour timeline, and it’s unclear how the Trump-touted Tehran-Washington contacts will impact that (contacts which Tehran has denied).
As for the Kremlin, Peskov also warned against strikes on nuclear infrastructure following reported attacks on Natanz nuclear facility, stating: “We believe that strikes on nuclear facilities are potentially extremely dangerous … Therefore, the Russian side, taking an extremely responsible stance on this issue, has repeatedly voiced its concerns.”
The risk is no longer theoretical given that Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom and the International Atomic Energy Agency had confirmed a projectile strike on the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, marking a dangerous new phase where nuclear sites are no longer off limits.
This in turn resulted in Iran for the first time targeting Dimona, home to Israel’s major nuclear reactor and research complex. But there’s no indication it suffered any direct hits.
“Dimona, where the second missile hit, is perilously close to Israel’s main nuclear reactor and research site. Iranian state media said the strike targeted the nuclear facility in retaliation for an attack on an Iranian nuclear enrichment site at Natanz, though the IDF has said it was unaware of that operation,” NBC reports.
“The International Atomic Energy Agency said that no abnormal off-site radiation levels had been observed following the strikes, though it urged all sides to exercise restraint near nuclear sites,” the report added.
At this point it’s anything but clear whether Trump’s announcement of talks will lead to an actual slowdown or pause in fighting. Here’s how Russia’s RT framed Iran’s stance:
Iranian sources, however, have told state media that no negotiations have been held with Washington, even through intermediaries. The Iranian Embassy in Afghanistan has stated that Trump “backed down” after Iran’s “firm warning” that it would retaliate to strikes on its energy infrastructure by attacking power plants across the region.
On Sunday US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told “Meet the Press” that Washington must “escalate to de-escalate” in the Iran and Strait of Hormuz situation. However, Washington never seems to be able get to the “de-escalate” part.
“We Are Deeply Saddened”: OnlyFans Owner Leonid Radvinsky Dead At 43
The billionaire owner of adult content platform OnlyFans has died after a long battle with cancer, according to Bloomberg, citing a statement from the company.
Leonid Radvinsky died at the age of 43, according to the company, which added, “We are deeply saddened to announce the death of Leo Radvinsky. He passed away peacefully after a long battle with cancer.”
Radvinsky’s death raises new questions about the platform’s future ownership, especially since he reportedly placed his majority stake in a trust in 2024.
According to his website, Radvinsky donated to several charities, including Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, West Suburban Humane Society, and EB Research Partnership.
Radvinsky studied economics at Northwestern University and by 2018 had bought a majority stake in OnlyFans and helped transform the video content platform into an adult-content subscription business’ powerhouse that reshaped how women monetize their bodies.
OnlyFans was founded in 2016 and exploded in popularity during the Covid pandemic. Some of the latest data from 2024 showed the website had 4.6 million creators, 377 million fans, and $1.4 billion in revenue.
A little less than one year ago, OnlyFans’ parent company, Fenix International Ltd., was reportedly in talks to sell the video platform at an estimated $8 billion valuation.
None of these talks resulted in a completed sale, at least publicly confirmed.
IEA Head Warns Iran War Sparked Energy Crisis Worse Than 1970s Oil Shocks, Ukraine Fallout
The head of the International Energy Agency intensified his apocalyptic warning about the global energy crisis, stating early Monday that the US-Israel war with Iran has sparked a shock far greater than the twin oil crises of the 1970s and the turmoil from the war in Ukraine combined.
US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury has entered its fourth week, and emerging from the fog of war is the understanding that 44 energy assets across the Gulf region have been severely or very severely damaged by either U.S. and allied forces or by Iranian forces, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who spoke at a media event in Australia on Monday.
“This crisis, as things stand, is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” Birol warned at the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra.
So far, the conflict has removed 11 million barrels of oil per day from global supply, which is more than the two prior oil shocks combined.
There are concerns that repairs to QatarEnergy’s damaged LNG facility could take up to five years, while the disruption to energy flows has sparked a fuel crisis across Asia and is set to affect fertilizer and food supplies, as well as helium, potentially jeopardizing AI chip production.
“The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible,” Birol said.
As of 0710 ET, Brent crude futures plunged 11% on President Trump’s Truth Social desesclation comments – a sign the administration needs an offramp to avoid a further energy crisis globally, but more importantly, one at home with fuel prices at the pump exploding higher.
Overnight, President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint or face a bombing campaign targeting Iran’s power plants.
There were reports overnight that the Trump administration was preparing a diplomatic off-ramp plan, but Iran says the expanding war has effectively shut the door.
Betting website Polymarket shows that ten new wallets are betting $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by the end of March.
“Almost no history, all created around the same time. Potential payout: over $1,000,000,” the Polymarket History account wrote on X.
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On Friday, Birol told the Financial Times in an exclusive interview that the world is severely underestimating the scale of the Gulf energy shock and that it may take at least six months to restore disrupted oil and gas flows.
Oil Plunges, Stocks Spike After Trump’s Comments On Iran
Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to “very good and productive conversations” on a “total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone “any and all military strikes” against Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days…
Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war.
Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US.
The reaction to Trump’s statement – as you might expect – is a crash lower in crude…
TACOs came early this week… or is it Mission Accomplished?
Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”
