A Hamtramck City Council member in Michigan is facing scrutiny after seemingly being captured on video participating in stuffing ballots into an official drop box just days before his primary election victory.

Video footage obtained by Local 4 seemingly shows Council Member Abu Musa in a black vehicle on August 1st, handing what appear to be stacks of ballots to a driver who then places them in the city’s ballot drop box. Musa went on to receive over 1,129 votes in last week’s primary election.

BREAKING: another Hamtramck, MI city councilman, Abu Musa, under investigation for ELECTION FRAUD

Surveillance video allegedly shows Musa depositing STACKS of ballots at a drop box days before the primary election.

He won by just a few dozen votes.

But Democrats say this never… https://t.co/zZWLNi7FkD pic.twitter.com/43inuy5uWw

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) August 15, 2025

In an interview with WXYZ, Oakland County Clerk Lisa Brown explained the rules governing ballot drop-offs, noting that while there’s no limit to how many ballots one person can submit, they must belong to household members or immediate family.

“If it’s an immediate family member or you co-inhabit with somebody … you can return their absentee ballots,” Brown said.

At this time, Musa has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

The investigation comes amid election-related charges against two other Hamtramck council members. Muhtasin Sadman and Mohammed Hassan are facing felony charges for allegedly forging signatures on absentee ballots during the city’s 2023 council race.

OMG it gets worse…

🚨 HALF of the entire Hamtramck, Michigan City Council Members have been Charged for committing election fraud

In addition to Abu Musa busted Stuffing STACKS of Absentee Ballots at a City Drop Box for his own Primary Race, Muhtasin Sadman and Mohammed… https://t.co/g2WqCNCN2x pic.twitter.com/amOqSRqf5z

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) August 16, 2025

Court documents from Attorney General Dana Nessel’s (D) office say the pair allegedly conspired to obtain signed but unvoted absentee ballots from recently naturalized citizens and filled them out with their preferred candidates. The documents also allege vote-buying schemes designed to influence local elections.

Hamtramck, a Metro Detroit community of just over 28,000 residents that is more than 70% Muslim, became the first U.S. city governed by an all-Muslim council in 2022.

Michigan State Police are expected to forward their findings to prosecutors soon for potential charges in the ongoing investigation.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In my book, “The Indispensable Right,” I write about the intolerance for viewpoint diversity in higher education and the atmosphere of orthodoxy created by overwhelmingly liberal faculties. We have also discussed consistent studies showing that students no longer feel free to express their viewpoints in class or on campuses. A new study offers additional data on this problem, showing that almost 90% of students misrepresent their views in class and on assignments to satisfy faculty by adopting more liberal views.

The authors explain that “these students were not cynical, but adaptive.”

Faced with the intolerance and rigidity of liberal faculty, they pretend to be liberal to avoid being penalized for their real views or values.

In other words, they “quickly learn to rehearse what is safe.”

In a recent op-ed, Northwestern University researchers Forest Romm and Kevin Waldman detail their findings:

Between 2023 and 2025, we conducted 1,452 confidential interviews with undergraduates at Northwestern University and the University of Michigan. …

We asked: Have you ever pretended to hold more progressive views than you truly endorse to succeed socially or academically? An astounding 88 percent said yes.

These students were not cynical, but adaptive. In a campus environment where grades, leadership, and peer belonging often hinge on fluency in performative morality, young adults quickly learn to rehearse what is safe.

The result is not conviction but compliance. And beneath that compliance, something vital is lost.

This has been a long-standing problem in higher education. The current generation of faculty and administrators has destroyed the sense of free thought and expression on our campuses. Faced with consistent polling showing that students feel compelled to mimic liberal ideology and viewpoints, faculty shrug or even attack students for being weak. In a debate that I had at Harvard Law School, a Harvard professor called such students “conservative snowflakes.”

However, they are not conservative. Take Harvard. A recent survey of the graduating class by the Classroom Social Compact Committee found that, despite an overwhelmingly liberal faculty and student body, even liberal Harvard students found a chilling environment for free expression at the school. And it is getting worse. The results show a 13 percent decrease from the Class of 2023.

Last year, Harvard found itself in a familiar spot on the annual ranking of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE): dead last among 251 universities and colleges.

What is most striking is the fact that Harvard has created this hostile environment while maintaining an overwhelmingly liberal student body and faculty. Only 9 percent of the class identified as conservative or very conservative.

Yet, even liberals feel stifled at Harvard. Only 41 percent of liberal students reported being comfortable discussing controversial topics, and only 25 percent of moderates and 17 percent of conservatives felt comfortable in doing so.

This sense of orthodoxy is conveyed by the Harvard faculty, which itself does not tolerate opposing voices except for a handful of conservative academics. The Harvard Crimson has documented how the school’s departments have virtually eliminated Republicans. In one study of multiple departments last year, they found that more than 75 percent of the faculty self-identified as “liberal” or “very liberal.”

Only  5 percent identified as “conservative,” and only 0.4% as “very conservative.”

The virtual purging of conservative faculty members across the country sends a message to students that such ideas are not favored or acceptable. The result is that the vast majority of students — liberal and conservative — self-censor in an environment of intolerance.

In the latest study, the researcher found:

Seventy-eight percent of students told us they self-censor on their beliefs surrounding gender identity; 72 percent on politics; 68 percent on family values. More than 80 percent said they had submitted classwork that misrepresented their views in order to align with professors. For many, this has become second nature — an instinct for academic and professional self-preservation.

The authors’ research suggests that on some issues, such as the nature of gender and gender identity, students’ actual beliefs are quite different from what appears to be the prevailing orthodoxy on campus.

They write further:

Authenticity, once considered a psychological good, has become a social liability. And this fragmentation doesn’t end at the classroom door. Seventy-three percent of students reported mistrust in conversations about these values with close friends. Nearly half said they routinely conceal beliefs in intimate relationships for fear of ideological fallout. This is not simply peer pressure — it is identity regulation at scale, and it is being institutionalized.

Universities often justify these dynamics in the name of inclusion. But inclusion that demands dishonesty is not ensuring psychological safety — it is sanctioning self-abandonment. In attempting to engineer moral unity, higher education has mistaken consensus for growth and compliance for care.

Again, if students saw a meaningful number of conservative, libertarian, or contrarian faculty members, they might believe that opposing views are tolerated. Instead, they receive a steady drumbeat of often strident ideological commentary. I constantly hear reports of students having to sit through diatribes from faculty members against conservative politicians, justices, and values. Years ago, a graduating student told me that my Supreme Court class in her final term was the first time in college or law school that she felt comfortable expressing her conservative views, including pro-life views. It was a profoundly sad statement about the state of higher education.

This report will now be added to a tall stack of other reports showing a culture of intolerance and intimidation in higher education, particularly for more conservative students. It also reflects why the last election shocked so many in the media and establishment, as young people voted Republican. This generation of faculty and administrators has created a type of underground culture as students mouth liberal orthodoxy in class to avoid the retaliation or disfavor of liberal professors.

After many years of such studies, there is no evidence that faculty members are prepared to change in adding more diversity to their ranks. While this environment is the antithesis of higher education, it is advantageous for those who espouse accepted viewpoints and values. The students are left to “adapt” or face the consequences.

Update(1545ET): A big talking point from today has been security guarantees – with European leaders and the US appearing to be on the same page so far, and of course Zelensky is welcoming this as well. 

As a reminder, the Kremlin has said over and over again that it would never accept Western troops enforcing anything inside Ukraine…

BREAKING: President Trump says “Putin agreed that Russia would accept security guarantees for Ukraine, and this is one of the key points that we need to consider” pic.twitter.com/4vRjkzFsyH

— Fox News (@FoxNews) August 18, 2025

Update(1320ET): President Trump clearly appreciated that Zelensky actually showed up at the White House in a suit, in all black, after the Ukrainian delegation pulled up and quickly was welcomed into the White House.

Here’s how RT presented one somewhat wild exchange during the opening press Q&A inside the Oval Office:

Reporter: Are you open to holding elections in your country?

Zelensky: Of course… *then lists every reason not to hold one*

Trump: So if we’re at war 3.5 years from now — no more elections? Room bursts into laughter

President Trump JOKES about getting America into a war and then canceling all elections in 3 1/2 years from now like President Zelenskyy did.

Reporter: “Are you open to holding an election in your country?”

Zelenskyy: “Yes, of course.” pic.twitter.com/Gju31Pjbyd

— RedWave Press (@RedWave_Press) August 18, 2025

Clearly Zelensky didn’t want to risk offending Trump before the high-stakes meeting – which also involves seven EU leaders – before it even started.

Zelensky followed the instructions and put on a suit to meet President Trump.

pic.twitter.com/Zg4LzL8pzI

— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) August 18, 2025

* * *

Ukraine’s President Zelensky has arrived in Washington with an entourage of European leaders sizeable enough that one wonders where they will all fit within the Oval Office for the highly anticipated meeting with President Trump to talk Ukraine peace, after Friday’s big – and controversial – Putin summit in Alaska.

No less than seven EU leaders are traveling to be there, including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

“We all share a strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably. And peace must be lasting,” Zelensky stated while en route to Washington. “I am confident that we will defend Ukraine, effectively guarantee security, and that our people will always be grateful to President Trump, everyone in America, and every partner and ally for their support and invaluable assistance. Russia must end this war, which it itself started.”

The European leaders will no doubt show up wearing the appropriate attire, but will Zelensky be in a suit this time? The White House has actually requested it. “The White House asked Ukrainian officials if President Volodymyr Zelensky will wear a suit to his meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, two sources with direct knowledge tell Axios,” Axios reports. If he doesn’t this could possibly create subtle tensions from the beginning, and we know that the last Oval meeting involving Zelensky didn’t go so well.

The hightly ‘constructive’ and positive meeting in Alaska resulted in Putin suggesting a tentative agreement had been reached after meeting with the US president, while Trump downplayed the outcome by reminding, “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.” In a subsequent interview, Trump noted that any agreement would require Ukraine’s approval and said he would advise the Zelensky government to consider making a deal – and no doubt this caused the Europeans a sigh of relief.

Currently there remain mixed messages coming from within the Trump administration about how much progress is being made, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicating that a ceasefire is still on the table – and that compromises will have to be made by both sides, including on the area of territory.

Bloomberg in fresh analysis has pointed out that jumping straight into peace negotiations could benefit Putin by giving him time to improve his position on the battlefield and the ability to shift the blame to Zelensky if talks fall through. Sanctions would also be delayed, and the chances of new sanctions currently appear low. Zelensky and European leaders are expected to push back against this possibility – which would leave Putin in the driver’s seat with little consequences – in their discussions with Trump.

Below are some likely outcome scenarios and fresh analysis via Bloomberg:

• Zelenkiy’s key aims are securing a lasting ceasefire, NATO-like security guarantees, and sustained sanctions on Russia if Moscow rejects peace terms. He will also insist on participation in all talks, stressing that decisions about Ukraine’s future require Ukrainian input.

• Ukraine has signaled some flexibility on de facto control along current frontlines, but refuses to formally cede territory, including Crimea, seeing this as unconstitutional and a prelude to further Russian aggression. Kyiv also rejects any limits on its military or European Union aspirations, as well as Russian demands on domestic issues such as language rights.

• Ukraine is likely to reject any Russian proposal to withdraw from the fortified 25% of Donetsk it controls in exchange for Russia leaving small pockets in Kharkiv and Sumy. Kyiv sees Donetsk as vital to its defense and a barrier to further offensives, while Russia’s presence in Kharkiv and Sumy carries little strategic value, making such a deal unattractive.

• Zelenskiy also remains wary of deals without enforceable security guarantees, given Moscow’s record of treaty violations. Ukraine’s strategy is to resist pressure for unfavorable terms while preserving unity with European allies.

• Meanwhile, European leaders will seek to ensure Kyiv’s interests are fully reflected in any settlement. They will also likely press Washington to support a credible, European-led framework to deter Russia from future offensives, while urging Trump that economic pressure on Moscow must intensify unless Putin shows genuine readiness to end the war.

Bloomberg Trump-Zelensky meeting matrix on each side’s desired outcomes:

“The bottom line is that a swift peace deal remains unlikely, given the gulf between Kyiv and Moscow,” concludes Bloomberg. “The challenge for Zelenskiy and European leaders is to accommodate Trump’s push for a quick win, while avoiding a settlement deeply unfavorable to Ukraine and Europe’s security.”

Delegations are expected arrive around midday, and several hours of meetings will follow. The schedule:

• Noon (16:00 GMT): European leaders arrive at the White House.
• 1pm (17:00 GMT): Zelenskyy arrives at the White House.
• 1:15pm (17:15 GMT): Meeting held between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.
• 2:15pm (18:15 GMT): Trump greets the European leaders in the State Dining Room.
• 2:30pm (18:30 GMT): A “family photo” taken in Cross Hall.
• 3pm (19:00 GMT): A multilateral meeting held in the East Room.

* * *

Below are more details and headline news stories related to Ukraine and Russia, and what to watch out for today, via Newsquawk:

MONDAY

• White House said US President Trump will greet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 13:00EDT/18:00BST on Monday and will participate in a bilateral meeting with Zelensky at 13:15EDT/18:15BST, while European leaders will arrive at the White House on Monday at 12:00EDT/17:00BST and President Trump will greet European leaders at 14:15EDT/19:15BST with a multilateral meeting to take place at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.

• “European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today 1) pin down more details on poss US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the poss trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps”, via Eurasia.

• Click here for the Newsquawk multilateral meeting.

US

• US President Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was “a 10” and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.

• US President Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.

• US President Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”

• US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.

• US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.

• US President Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.

• Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.

RUSSIA

• Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.

• Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.

• Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.

EUROPE

• European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.

• European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.

• EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.

• EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.

• German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.

• French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.

• Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.

* * *

And below is John Mearsheimer on the aftermath of the Alaska Summit:

The desired next step for Trump is to see Presidents Putin and Zelensky in the same room, to settle on a final deal to end the war in Ukraine, and reports have suggested Trump wants to make this happen as soon as Friday, but what happens Monday could be a large determining factor.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Treasury Department on Friday unveiled guidance that tightens the criteria for wind and solar energy projects to receive federal tax credits.

The guidance follows President Donald Trump’s July 7 executive order directing the department to enforce the One Big Beautiful Bill Act he signed into law on July 4, which effectively ends renewable energy tax credits for projects that have not begun construction.

The new rules narrow down the definition of projects considered to have begun construction, replacing the previous rule that allowed developers to qualify after incurring 5 percent of the project costs.

It stated that the “Five Percent Safe Harbor” is no longer available for determining “whether a wind or solar facility has met the beginning of construction deadline and, thus, is not subject to the credit termination date.” However, small projects below 1.5 megawatts could still be considered for the provision.

Developers will need to prove they started “physical work of a significant nature” to establish that solar or wind projects have begun construction, and those projects must be continuous, according to the guidance.

“Provided that physical work performed is of a significant nature, there is no fixed minimum amount of work or monetary or percentage threshold required to satisfy the Physical Work Test,” it stated.

The newly released guidance counts activities such as setting anchor bolts into the ground, excavating land, and pouring concrete pads of the foundation as qualified work in progress.

Preliminary activities such as mapping, clearing a site, test drilling, or excavating to change the contour of the land are not considered as having begun construction, according to the updated rules.

It also stated that solar or wind facilities must be operational by the end of the fourth calendar year after construction begins, in order to fully qualify under the new rules.

The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) criticized the guidance as a “blatant rejection” of congressional approval and said that it threatens small businesses supporting the U.S. clean energy sector.

“American families and businesses will pay more for electricity as a result of this action, and China will continue to outpace us in the race for electricity to power AI,” SEIA CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said in a statement.

Clean Energy Buyers Association CEO Rich Powell said the guidance provides the business community with certainty “by honoring existing contracts” while ensuring proper use of taxpayer money.

“Meeting these new standards will be challenging, but we are confident that American energy buyers will help developers rise to the challenge of delivering all sources of power critical to the continued growth of the U.S. economy,” Powell stated.

The executive order to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy projects cited concerns over the reliability of these energy sources and dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.

In his order, Trump stated that reliance on “so-called ‘green’ subsidies” poses a national security risk by making the United States dependent on supply chains controlled by foreign adversaries.

“Ending the massive cost of taxpayer handouts to unreliable energy sources is vital to energy dominance, national security, economic growth, and the fiscal health of the nation,” the order stated.

President Trump on Monday issued a scorching message aimed at Hamas as well as the growing internationall and domestic critics of America’s Israel policy. He called for the total destruction of Hamas and the return of the hostages, in that order.

“The sooner this takes place, the better the chances of success will be,” he wrote on Truth Social. This is one of the clearest ‘greenlights’ for Netanyahu’s expanded Gaza operations to date, and it cleary backs his government’s pursuit of a military solution, as opposed to attempting to renew or prioritize negotiations for a hostage exchange.

In bizarre language which sounds more like an enthusiastic gambler preparing to enter the casino, Trump declared after reviewing his recent Middle East ‘accomplishments’: “Play to WIN, or don’t play at all!”

This comes on the heels of a weekend which saw more mass anti-Netanyahu protests across Israeli cities, especially in Tel Aviv. Also, President Trump held a phone call with PM Netanyahu on Sunday.

Netanyahu’s office said they “discussed Israel’s plans to take control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza in order to bring an end to the war through the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”

Trump in a follow-up interview with Axios said of the terror group, “they can’t stay there” – and explained: “I have one thing to say: remember October 7, remember October 7.”

Netananyahu told a Sunday press briefing that he has requested the Israel Defense Forces to present plans for “taking over” Gaza City.

There are reports saying the Israeli government is planning to ‘move’ Palestinian civilians into massive tent cities, with tents being provided and erected by the Israelis – but international war monitors and human rights groups have decried this as ethnic cleansing – but dressed up in humanitarian language, given the creation and publicizing of yet more sprawling refugee camps.

Thousands of Israelis stayed home from work, flooded city streets and blocked roads and highways across the country on Sunday, staging some of the largest anti-war protests in months as the military prepares for a major assault on Gaza City. https://t.co/S4eBx4BWzE pic.twitter.com/OunIurUPEg

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 17, 2025

Below is a Monday update of some of the latest major developments via Al Jazeera:

• The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza says the death toll from Israel’s war has surpassed 62,000 with 60 people killed and 344 injured in the latest 24-hour reporting period.
• Hospitals say 27 people seeking aid have been killed and 281 injured over the past day, bringing the total death toll of aid seekers to 1,965.
• The ministry also confirms five new deaths from famine and malnutrition, including two children, raising the overall toll from hunger-related causes to 263, among them 112 children.
• Israel continues its attacks across the Gaza Strip, including a strike on the Daraj neighbourhood in Gaza City that killed three Palestinians, among them a child.
• Amnesty International has accused Israel of enacting a “deliberate policy” of starvation in Gaza, citing testimony from displaced Palestinians and doctors treating malnourished children.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar says he has revoked visas of Australian representatives to the Palestinian Authority after Canberra denied entry to far-right Israeli MP Simcha Rothman.
• Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, says it will exclude six companies tied to Gaza and the West Bank from its portfolio after a review of Israeli investments.

Tent cities have already been expanding outside Gaza city and in various districts.

Food scarcity has continued to be an immense and dire problem, and something expected to worsen as civilians are driven out of Gaza City by the looming new Israeli ground offensive.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Following what was expected to be a Friday of high geopolitical drama for markets, but wasn’t, today may prove that event instead. Yes, President Trump just failed to get a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire; but today he’s pushing for a full peace deal. The UK PM, key EU leaders (though none who border Ukraine), and NATO’s Rutte will join President Zelenskyy in D.C. to hear (or be told to sign on to?) Trump’s latest proposal.

According to most reports, Ukraine will have to cede the land Russia has already taken, with debate over whether Moscow gets all of Donetsk oblast on a plate when it only controls part of it now. Weeks ago, Europe and Zelenskyy were insisting not one inch of land would be ceded: now it looks like 20%, with key resources and a geostrategic location, is gone for good.

That’s a very bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow, for which Kyiv is rightly demanding security guarantees. According to Trump envoy Witkoff, Putin is accepting this will involve troops on the ground in Ukraine, as well as an Article 5 pledge to defend its new borders. But whose troops and whose guarantee?

For those expecting the US to do more on physical support for Ukraine –presumably everyone visiting the White House– the counterargument is Trump won an election specifically on avoiding that outcome, simply put, and the US is not going to fight Russia for Ukraine.

So, on security guarantees, Europe will say, “The US”; the US will say, “Europe’; and the US will win. Just as Trump told Zelenskyy “You don’t have the cards,” the UK and Europe don’t either.

For those expecting the US and Europe to do more economically, i.e., secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil and/or action vs. Russian oil at sea, neither is prepared for the pain and geopolitical / geoeconomic escalation it would involve: if they were, such sanctions would have been placed on China already, as one example. Obviously, they haven’t, and Trump just made clear they likely won’t be – Europe didn’t even need to say it.

Indeed, a hypothetical removing of US sanctions on Russian energy ahead, for example, would allow even lower prices, offsetting US tariff inflation now just starting to show, a boon to it; but for Europe/the UK it would mean far less ability to use economic statecraft, so logically then requiring much more military statecraft.

As such, the burden of rearming rapidly, locking themselves into a Cold War with Russia, and the risks of hot war with it, will likely fall on Europe/the UK. Some might think that’s already priced in, but though NATO has (mostly) promised to spend 5% of GDP on defence, that’s a broad umbrella covering things like bridges to Sicily. Moreover, it’s scheduled to be phased in slowly most places, “because markets.” Yet if Russia keeps ramping up military production helped by China’s massive industrial muscle, what is Europe going to do – stick to tough fiscal rules and timid rules of engagement and assume this dissuades Moscow?

Russia will probably be assuming Europe can’t and won’t stick to the painful political-economy and geopolitical risk-appetite changes defending Ukraine against it would require, more so given it has local escalation dominance given its political unity, ruthlessness, location, and interests.

Meanwhile, US grand macro strategy remains a pivot to Asia while staying top dog in the Middle East, by proxy as much as possible. Ukraine is a secondary issue for them, and a primary one for Europe.

Logically, it suits the US to sell the arms to Europe needs to protect Ukraine to cement Europe’s need to rebuild its military within US value chains; and to accelerate a Reverse Marshall Plan for Europe to pay to build US factories behind tariff barriers to make those weapons. Naturally, this would also make any future European rejection of USD stablecoins that could de facto dollarize its economy much harder, further boosting the US realpolitik hand in ways Europe is just waking up to now, again too late.

A Ukraine deal could also reduce US tensions with Russia –now treated as a Great Power again, one of its key goals— as at least a partial ‘Noxin’ play that gets China worried about where it sits with Moscow longer term.

A Ukraine deal could additionally mean at least a partial US U-turn on tariffs on India, stopping its drift away from the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) back towards the BRICS. Notably, US-India trade talks set to be held before stacked-up 50% tariffs are due to kick in were just delayed past that key date, but may be rescheduled, while New Delhi is this morning reported to be open to allowing Chinese investment back into its manufacturing sector again. (Though there are serious views that China has no desire to allow India to develop this sector at scale to prevent any potential rival emerging.)

Overall, today’s outcome in D.C. could leave the US in a much stronger geostrategic position and Europe seeing how bad it’s is.

Regular readers may recall that a few years ago we warned that Europe was in deep trouble due to balance of power deficits: well, here we are. It may be hard for Western European markets to grasp this harsh reality, but they and their market acronyms are no longer masters of their own destiny. They are geopolitical price takers.

If Europe tries to step up, it will face one huge set of challenges: Who builds? Who pays? Who decides? Who fights?

If Europe decides it can’t or won’t –and rhetoric, platitudes, and pipedreams aside, that’s a real risk— it will mean Ukraine faces a rocky future, and Europe has a huge headache.

After all, if it fails this clear test of collective will and willingness to sacrifice here for its own security interests, what are the odds of it successfully doing so for any other “faraway countries of which it knows nothing?”… some of which may even be in the EU one day? The implications for Europe’s security architecture and so its political unity –forget about strategic autonomy!– would be extremely worrying.

Of course, in the short term markets could ignore all this and just tsk-tsk at the US; but in the longer run does it really make the case for Europe? They should also hope that a 20% piece in our time is not also 20% peace in our time.

The New York City Police Department wrote on X around 11:13 ET for the public to avoid Times Square as officers respond to an “active police investigation” near West 43rd Street and 7th Avenue. Multiple reports suggest the situation stems from a bomb threat. 

ADVISORY: Due to an active police investigation, avoid the area of West 43rd Street and 7th Avenue in Manhattan within the confines of @NYPDMTS. Expect emergency vehicles and delays in the surrounding area. pic.twitter.com/csoK013son

— NYPD NEWS (@NYPDnews) August 18, 2025

CNBC reporter Kristina Partsinevelos says the bomb squad has arrived at the scene and is investigating a “suspicious package.”

#Breaking: Bomb squad looking at a suspicious package at the precinct on 43rd and 7th in Times Square. Streets are blocked off.

Looks to be okay now. The view behind my desk. pic.twitter.com/GV4GA6zd3f

— Kristina Partsinevelos (@KristinaParts) August 18, 2025

Times Square has been shut down. 

Suspicious package in Times Square has shut down portions of the area.
Bomb squad on the scene.@PIX11News pic.twitter.com/qP3nM0LJCa

— Dan Mannarino (@DanMannarino) August 18, 2025

🚨 BREAKING: Times Square evacuated as NYPD bomb squad investigates reports of a suspicious package.

pic.twitter.com/Be5kIJbp43

— Viral News NYC (@ViralNewsNYC) August 18, 2025

Watch Live:  

*Developing…

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has terminated 123 “wasteful contracts” over the past five days with a ceiling value of $5.3 billion and savings of $4.2 billion, DOGE said in an Aug. 16 X post.

The canceled contracts included an $857,000 contract from the Department of the Interior for a technical adviser in Lagos, Nigeria, it said.

Another canceled agreement was a $1.5 million Treasury Department contract for “Word Processing and Document Formatting Services Examination Training” for the Human Capital Office and the IRS, as well as its small business and self-employed division, according to DOGE.

A $785,000 State Department consulting contract for staffing was canceled as well, it added.

In an Aug. 17 post on X, DOGE dismissed media reports that the cost savings it reports use a faulty methodology since it is based on ceiling values of a contract—the maximum spending allowed—and not actual amounts saved.

DOGE called such reporting “a classic case of Fake News.”

“In federal contracting, ceilings matter because they are almost always maxed out,” DOGE said.

For instance, “of the 5.4M awards at contract end in FY24, 98.12 percent were spent to the ceiling,” it said.

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman backed DOGE in an Aug. 18 X post.

“@DOGE is doing great work. Thank you DOGE team!” he said.

As of Aug. 15, DOGE had saved an estimated $205 billion for the federal government, according to the initiative’s website, amounting to $1,273.29 saved per U.S. taxpayer, the department said.

The savings have been achieved through contract and lease cancellations and renegotiations, asset sales, and grant cancellations.

The departments and agencies that have contributed to saving the most include the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Department of Defense, Social Security Administration, Small Business Administration, and the Office of Personnel Management.

The DOGE website’s Greatest Hits section said that among the “strangest, most baffling uses” of government funds canceled by DOGE include a $1.5 million grant to the Center to Advance Reproductive Justice and Behavioral Health for “black pregnant/postpartum women and birthing people.”

Other canceled contracts include a $6.9 million grant for mental health development from “an antiracist approach,” and a $10 million award for “decolonizing the curriculum.”

DOGE Data Access

Last month, a group of Democratic senators introduced the Pick Up After Your DOGE Act, which calls for a comprehensive audit of computer systems and networks of federal agencies that were accessed by DOGE staff, according to a July 30 statement from the office of Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), one of the lawmakers who introduced the bill.

DOGE employees have accessed sensitive data of various federal agencies, including the IRS, Social Security Administration, Department of Transportation, and Veterans Administration, even though the staff had “little training and few qualifications,” it said.

Such access poses “substantial risks” to the data and well-being of Americans, it said. Bugs and vulnerabilities left due to DOGE staff accessing the systems put sensitive data at risk of being stolen, according to the senator’s statement.

“The DOGE-boys have weaseled their way into Americans’ most sensitive data systems, claiming to hunt ‘waste, fraud, and abuse,’ while actually creating waste, fraud, and abuse. They’re destroying Americans’ trust in once-reliable government systems and could be hawking your stolen data to their friends in Big Tech and AI,” Whitehouse said.

“The Pick Up After Your DOGE Act protects seniors and all Americans by fixing any bugs or backdoors that DOGE may have purposefully or negligently created in Social Security, Medicare, and other highly sensitive government data systems.”

Meanwhile, the Trump administration netted a win on the issue of DOGE accessing data from federal departments, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit lifting a block imposed on such access on Aug. 12.

The lawsuit was filed in February by a group of individuals and unions arguing that DOGE was “steamrolling into sensitive government record systems” and compromising the security of Americans’ personal data.

A district judge then issued a preliminary injunction, barring certain federal agencies from disclosing data to DOGE.

But in a 2–1 decision, the appeals court lifted the prohibition, with Judge Julius Richardson suggesting it was impossible for DOGE employees to do their jobs without access to government data.

“To insist that the DOGE affiliates explain in advance the exact information they need and why is to demand something just short of clairvoyance,” Richardson said.

“So it does not stretch the imagination to think that an employee tasked with modernizing an agency’s software and IT systems would require administrator-level access to those systems, including any internal databases, especially when conducting the initial survey of the agency’s technological ailments.”

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

What started as a joke may soon become a multimillion-dollar reality as Anheuser–Busch marketing executives were reported last week to be in serious consideration for a deal with actress and American Eagle model Sydney Sweeney.

The Daily Mail reported that the blonde bombshell could net $10 million dollars in a Bud Light deal currently under consideration.

“Sydney Sweeney’s American Eagle campaign delivered undeniable commercial impact— denim sales surged and the brand’s stock climbed,” said entertainment lawyer Christopher Chatham, an expert in negotiating celebrity endorsements.

“That kind of performance makes her a compelling candidate for Bud Light, especially as the brand considers options in responding to past criticism,” Chatham added. “Beer brands pay for reach, resilience, and relevance—and Sweeney delivers all three, so it would not be surprising if a Bud Light endorsement deal were to approach or potentially reach the seven-figure range.”

The two have been flip sides of a cautionary tale on the power conservatives have in the marketplace amid pressures from the ESG movement to use branding as political virtue-signaling.

Bud Light, once a staple for the St. Louis-based beer manufacturer, lost nearly a quarter of its sales—roughly $1.4 billion in annual revenue—after outrage conservatives boycotted the brand for its promotion of transgender personality Dylan Mulvaney in 2023.

According to some estimates, its overall market value plunged more than $15 billion due to the woke misstep.

It has since tried and failed to rehab its tarnished image, including a partnership with the Ultimate Fighting Championship, but negative perceptions have taken root, making it the butt of many jokes on conservative-friendly outlets and programs.

That included Fox News comedian Jimmy Failla, who floated the idea of a Bud Light–Sweeney collab in an Aug. 5 op-ed, noting that Sweeney’s “good jeans” campaign had sent American Eagle’s stock soaring by 23%.

“Teaming up with Sweeney would mark a return to the Golden Age of beer sales, where catering to the customer’s preferences was far more important than trying to align them with the woke White chicks screaming into their iPHONES on TIK TOK,” Failla wrote.

It is unclear whether the youth-oriented clothing manufacturer intentionally set off a firestorm when it began the campaign, which leftists have denounced as Nazi-esque for suggesting that Sweeney’s Aryan features should be given a positive value judgment.

The attacks ultimately resulted in a sort of Streisand-effect backlash turning Sweeney—who, it turns out, is a registered Republican and expert marksman—into the posterchild for anti-woke resistance.

Sydney Sweeney showed off her skills at the gun range.

As if we don’t have enough reasons to love her. pic.twitter.com/nPx3vZ4hof

— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) August 4, 2025

Even President Donald Trump weighed in, further lifting the public profile of the 27-year-old “Euphoria” actress with a lengthy post on Truth Social.

Trump actually posted a Sydney Sweeney post for real! LMAO 😂 👏🏼 pic.twitter.com/vCfSNVDwy9

— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) August 4, 2025

Many have noted that American Eagle itself has also used non-white pitch-models, such as left-wing singer Beyoncé Knowles.

But when faced with cancel-culture pressure, it doubled down on the decision, thereby plunging headfirst into the culture war on the winning side.

That may give beer execs optimism that Sweeney could be the Great White Hope destined to rescue their brand—once celebrated for its clever commercials—and wipe away any lingering negativity among consumers.

“[I]f Bud Light teams up with Sydney Sweeney, all the ill will from the Dylan Mulvaney fiasco will disappear faster than a CEO on a Coldplay Kiss Cam,” Failla wrote.

“I say that because as a gorgeous and fun loving girl who is not ashamed of her femininity, she’s everything that made Bud Light Commercials successful before the Mad Men in the advertising department were replaced with Mad THEM,” he added.

As we arrive at a new week, DB’s Henry Allen writes that the focus is still on Ukraine this morning, as the world reacts to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska last Friday. The main headline was that no deal was reached on a ceasefire, but multiple outlets reported that Putin wanted Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and he offered Trump a freeze across the rest of the frontline in return. Moreover, Trump himself posted that he now wanted to “go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.” 

After the summit, Trump then spoke with European leaders, although the joint statement from the European leaders made clear that “It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory.” Then today, Trump is meeting President Zelensky at 1:15pm ET, before a multilateral leading with European leaders at 3:00pm ET. That group will include UK PM Starmer, French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz and Commission President Von der Leyen. In his post, Trump also said that “If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin.”

Clearly, we’ll have to wait and see what happens today, but Trump was saying yesterday morning that there had been “BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA. STAY TUNED!” And separately, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said on CNN that “We got to an agreement that the US and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine”, which is the NATO article which says that an attack on one member will be considered an attack on all. Trump has also been calling on Zelensky to make a deal, and just a few hours ago, he posted that Zelensky “can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.” However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed expectations of a deal yesterday, saying that “We are not at the precipice of a peace agreement.” 

In terms of the week ahead, the main focus away from the White House will be the Fed’s symposium at Jackson Hole, where we’ll hear central bankers including Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Bear in mind that the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole has often been used to send important policy signals, and it was last year that Powell said the “time has come for policy to adjust” before they then cut rates at the next meeting for the first time since the pandemic. This time around, we don’t have the full agenda yet, but the subtitle for Powell’s speech on the Fed’s website says “Economic Outlook and Framework Review”, so we can expect some insight on those topics. 

The last time the Fed had a review in 2020, that resulted in a shift towards average inflation targeting. In essence, they said that after periods when inflation had been persistently beneath 2% (like the 2010s), then monetary policy could seek to reach inflation a bit above 2% to counteract that. The Fed also reinterpreted their approach to full employment, in that a tight labor market alone wasn’t a reason to raise rates. So that implied a move away from the pre-emptive approach whereby the Fed would tighten policy to get ahead of future inflation as the labour market tightened. Of course, we now know that shortly after the framework review, there was then a major burst of inflation, and although it had many drivers, our US economists concluded in a Friday note (link here) that the new framework was a contributor to that overshoot. So this time around, they expect Powell’s speech to call for rolling back the 2020 modifications and restoring a primary role for pre-emption. 

When it comes to the near-term path for policy, futures are still pricing in a September rate cut as the most likely outcome. But there was a clear shift last Thursday, as the PPI inflation release for July showed the fastest monthly inflation since March 2022. So that made it clear that a September cut still wasn’t a done deal, particularly with the emerging signs of tariff-driven inflation. And we still know there’s more to come on the tariff front, as Trump said on Friday that he’d be “setting tariffs next week and the week after, on steel and on, I would, say chips — chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting sometime next week, week after”. So that’s one to keep an eye on, and Trump also suggested that the semiconductor rate could be as high as 300%. 

Staying on inflation, we’ve got some more releases out this week, including from Japan, the UK and Canada. The UK will be an important one, as the June reading was unexpectedly strong, with headline inflation rising to +3.6%. Moreover, our UK economist expects it to take another step up in July to +3.8%. By contrast in Japan, our economist sees headline inflation easing a bit to +3.1% in July, down from 3.3% in June. Otherwise, the main data release will be the August flash PMIs on Thursday, which will offer an initial indication on the global economy’s performance this month, particularly with the latest tariffs that have been imposed. 

Elsewhere this week, we’ve got a few more earnings releases coming out, although it’s very much the end of the current season with over 90% of the S&P 500 having reported by now. This week’s highlights include several US retailers, including Walmart and Target, which should offer a fresh insight into consumer spending. Last Friday, the US retail sales numbers were pretty robust in July, with the headline reading up +0.5% (vs. +0.6% expected), alongside an upward revision to June as well. However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index painted a weaker picture for August, with the headline index unexpectedly falling to 58.6 (vs. 62.0 expected), alongside an uptick for inflation expectations.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 18

• Data: US August New York Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index, Japan June Tertiary industry index, Eurozone June trade balance, Canada July housing starts, June international securities transactions
• Earnings: BHP, Palo Alto Networks

Tuesday August 19

• Data: US July building permits, housing starts, Italy June current account balance, ECB June current account, Canada July CPI
• Earnings: Home Depot, Medtronic

Wednesday August 20

• Data: China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, UK July CPI, RPI, June house price index, Japan July trade balance, June core machine orders, Germany July PPI, Denmark Q2 GDP
• Central banks: FOMC meeting minutes, Fed’s Waller and Bostic speak, ECB’s Lagarde speaks, RBNZ decision, Riksbank decision
• Earnings: TJX, Lowe’s, Analog Devices, Target, Estee Lauder
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bonds ($16bn)

Thursday August 21

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone August PMIs, US August Philadelphia Fed business outlook, July leading index, existing home sales, initial jobless claims, UK July public finances, Eurozone August consumer confidence, June construction output, Canada July industrial product price index, raw materials price index, Norway Q2 GDP
• Central banks: Jackson Hole symposium, through August 23
• Earnings: Walmart, Workday
• Auctions: US 30-yr TIPS (reopening, $8bn)

Friday August 22

• Data: UK August GfK consumer confidence, July retail sales, Japan July national CPI, France August business confidence, July retail sales, Canada June retail sales
• Central banks: Fed’s Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. The minutes to the FOMC’s July meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Governors Bowman and Waller, and remarks from Chair Powell at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. 

Monday, August 18 

• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, August (consensus 34, last 33)

Tuesday, August 19 

• 08:30 AM Housing starts, July (GS -1.0%, consensus -2.2%, last +4.6%): Building permits, July (consensus -0.2%, last -0.1%)
• 02:10 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak about fostering new technology in the banking system at the 2025 Wyoming Blockchain Symposium. Speech text is expected. On August 1, Bowman said, “With economic growth slowing this year and signs of a less dynamic labor market, I saw it as appropriate to begin gradually moving our moderately restrictive policy stance toward a neutral setting. In my view, this action would have proactively hedged against a further weakening in the economy and the risk of damage to the labor market.”

Wednesday, August 20 

• 11:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on payments at the 2025 Wyoming Blockchain Symposium. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On August 1, Waller said that he dissented in favor of cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points in July because “tariffs are one-off increases in the price level and do not cause inflation beyond a temporary increase, … a host of data argues that monetary policy should now be close to neutral, not restrictive, … [and] while the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased.”
• 02:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes: At its July meeting, the FOMC left the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. The Committee noted that economic growth had “moderated in the first half of the year” but otherwise made minimal changes to the post-meeting statement. In his press conference, Chair Powell highlighted the softer growth pace in the first half of the year, noted that the labor market remains solid but said six times that it faces “downside risks,” and said that inflation is most of the way back to 2% and that a “reasonable base case” is that tariffs will have only a one-time impact on the price level.
• 03:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation on the economic outlook. Q&A is expected. On August 13, Bostic said “I still have one cut in my outlook. That is predicated on the notion that the labor market stays solid.” He added that “We have the luxury today to wait to make a policy adjustment because the labor market remains solid.”

Thursday, August 21 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 16 (GS 225k, consensus 227k, last 224k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 9 (last 1,953k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, August (GS 6.5, consensus 5.5, last 15.9)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August preliminary (last 49.8): S&P Global US services PMI, August preliminary (last 55.7)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, July (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.4%, last -2.7%)

Friday, August 22 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the economic outlook and the framework review at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Speech text is expected. 

Source: BofA, Goldman