Vestas Wind Systems jumped the most in years after the Internal Revenue Service issued revised guidance on U.S. wind and solar tax credit eligibility that proved far less restrictive than initially feared top Wall Street desks.

President Trump’s tax and spending bill dialed back the Biden-Harris regime era renewable subsidies, allowing credits only for projects starting within a year or in service by 2027. Wall Street analysts feared strict rules, but the new IRS guidance, issued last Friday, clarified what counts as “beginning construction” in a way analysts called “close to the best possible outcome.”

Analysts at Jefferies, Citi, RBC, and Goldman all viewed the IRS rule change as more favorable than anticipated. 

“We see close to the best possible outcome in the guidance compared to initial talks,” analysts at Jefferies wrote in a note to clients. 

Goldman analyst Ajay Patel told clients Monday that the revised rule removes yet “another uncertainty” for Vestas. 

Patel explained more:

US IRA: Revised guidance better than feared… On Friday, the Internal Revenue Service issued its revised guidance for wind and solar tax credit eligibility, stating that a Physical Work Test must be satisfied for projects that have begun construction by July 5, 2026 to qualify, as part of their review on sections 45Y and 48E of the Internal Revenue Code for wind and solar facilities. The new guidelines are only applicable for projects starting construction from September 2, 2025. i.e. a proportion of the current U.S. onshore wind pipeline.

The Physical Work Test requires that “physical work of a significant nature” has begun, focusing on the nature of work rather than the amount of the cost. This replaces the previous legislation within The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which had stated that projects are eligible for wind and solar tax credits if they had started construction by July 2026, defined as 5% of capex, or had been placed in service by the end of 2027. The new guidance states that both off-site and on-site work may be considered to demonstrate physical work of a significant nature, with off-site examples including the manufacturing of components or mounting of equipment, and on-site examples including the beginning of the excavation for the foundation or the setting of anchor bolts into the ground. The guidance explicitly states that physical work of a significant nature does not include preliminary activities, even those such as clearing a site or excavation to change the contour of a land (separate from excavation for a foundation). Further, for facilities that are in service by the end of a calendar year that is no more than four calendar years after the calendar year during which construction began, the project is considered to satisfy the Continuity Requirement, and is eligible for credits.

Another uncertainty clear for Vestas … We would see the clarity given as a positive for Vestas. American Clean Power (See link) point to a potential 28GW land based wind pipeline. Now we have clarity, and we see a strong order uptick over the coming quarters for Vestas as part of the pipeline converts. We see the tide starting to turn as we progress through H2. Profitability and cash flow should sizeably improve which will likely increase the debate around additional cash returns to shareholders. Higher U.S. order activity should paint a better picture for top-line growth. Working through the ramp-up of offshore this year should reduce the risk it presents.

We expect the Vestas story to gain momentum as we progress over H2, and we remain Buy rated.

In markets, Vestas shares in Copenhagen jumped sharply, up 15.7% – the largest daily increase since July 28, 2022, when shares rose 15.8%. High interest rates, inflation, and the broader downturn in the green energy industry in the Trump era have battered the stock. 

. . .

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A Louisiana woman was arrested and charged with fraud last month after allegedly underreporting her income to qualify for Medicaid. The state Bureau of Investigation claims that Candace Taylor, 35, bought a Lamborghini and owned six businesses that earned almost $10 million in five years while on federal assistance. The case has been featured in FOX News, USA Today and dozens of other news outlets.

Key facts: Taylor allegedly applied for Medicaid in 2019 using the fake name Candace Sailor and claiming that she earned less than $4,000 per month. That application was denied, but she allegedly submitted a successful application the next year using the same alias.

Authorities said that, while on Medicaid, Taylor spent $100,000 at the exotic car dealership Tactical Fleet and made $45,086 in vehicle payments to Audi Finance. She also supposedly spent $13,000 to help pay for a 2022 Lamborghini Urus, which has a retail price of $229,495.

Other alleged purchases included cosmetic surgery and high-end jewelry. State agents said they found the purchases on Taylor’s tax return, and she also showed them off on social media. She lives in Slidell, a suburb outside New Orleans.

Taylor’s businesses allegedly generated $9.5 million of revenue from January 2020 to December 2024. Prosecutors say that Taylor’s bank account funds increased by $481,000 in 2020, even though she claimed no income on her Medicaid forms.

Background: Taylor’s case stands out from other Medicaid errors because of her alleged extravagant lifestyle, but the cash she received is just a drop in the bucket compared to overall Medicaid mistakes. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has made $1 trillion in improper payments across both programs in the past decade.

Louisiana spent $103 million in 2023 and 2024 on Medicaid for patients who did not actually live in the state, according to a recent audit of the state Department of Health. In past years, that could have contributed to the $4.3 billion the state and federal governments spent from 2019 to 2021 to insure Medicaid patients who already had coverage in other states.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Summary: Stories like Taylor’s are outlandish enough for the front pages of tabloids, but they’re also a reminder of how much health-care funding is redirected from those who actually need it.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

US equity futures are down a touch, after closing in the red on Friday having tagged a new all time high earlier in the day, with small caps outperforming to start the week. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% after the benchmarks closed last week near an all-time high, with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy and his European allies arriving at the White House today to find out what US President Donald Trump committed to at his summit with Vladimir Putin. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are all lower with Semis and Cyclicals lagging Defensives. European stocks also fell 0.2%. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens and the USD catches a bid. Commodities are higher with strength from crude and precious metals. Cryptocurrencies retreated. This is a light macro data week with a focus on Retailer earnings and geopolitics, though the latter is unlikely to move US markets, into Friday’s Powell presentation at Jackson Hole.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.07%, Alphabet +0.09%, Apple -0.2%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Nvidia -0.3%, Amazon -0.2%, Tesla -0.6%). 

• Dayforce Inc. (DAY) jumps 26% after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the human resources management software provider.
• Soho House & Co. (SHCO) rises 16% after a group of investors agreed to take the company private in a deal that gives the members’ club an enterprise value of about $2.7 billion.
• TeraWulf (WULF) climbs 4% after saying said Google has agreed to boost its stake in the company to about 14% from around 8% as the Bitcoin miner and data center operator continues to expand its Lake Mariner data center campus in Western New York.
• Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) rises 6% after an announcement that the firm received FDA approval for Tonmya to treat fibromyalgia in adults.
• UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) rises 2%, set to extend the 12% rally on Friday, after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and other investors bought shares in the health insurer.

Traders will be on edge today, following the latest developments in the White House where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his allies will meet with President Trump to find out what the US President committed to at his summit with Vladimir Putin. Bloomberg Economics chief geo-economics analyst Jennifer Welch says questions remain about what the US and Russian leaders discussed and how much progress was made toward ending the war. 

Besides today, traders are also staying cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat at Jackson Hole later this week, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech keenly watched for guidance on a September interest-rate cut. Investor expectations for monetary easing next month fluctuated in recent days, pricing in more than a quarter-point cut at one point, amid mixed signals on inflation and the strength of US consumers.

Under a scenario where the Fed begins cutting later this year, combined with resilient corporate earnings, “the S&P 500 is likely to maintain its medium-term uptrend,” noted Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. “Nevertheless, caution is warranted in the face of unexpected political shocks, the risk of renewed trade tensions, and historically stretched valuations.” As a reminder, BofA’s Michael Hartnett sees a dovish Jackson Hole as a sell-the-news event.

Elsewhere, Wall Street will also get a closer look at how American consumers are holding up in the early days of Trump’s tariff regime. Some of the biggest retailers report earnings in coming days, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot.  So far, S&P 500 firms have posted a much better-than-expected increase in quarterly profits, while margins have proved more resilient to tariffs than feared, according to Goldman’s David Kostin.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed with gains in utility and health care shares offset by losses for banks and miners. Vestas Wind Systems jumps the most in three years as new US tax credit rules were better than feared, while Novo Nordisk gained after its obesity drug Wegovy won US FDA approval to treat a liver disease. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Vestas Wind Systems shares rose 17%, the most in three years, after guidance issued by the Treasury Department and IRS on tax credits related to clean energy projects was deemed by analysts to be far less onerous than feared
• Novo Nordisk shares gain as much as 5% after the Danish drugmaker’s Wegovy obesity drug won US FDA accelerated approval to treat a serious form of liver disease, beating rival Eli Lilly to the US market for the condition
• Boozt gains as much as 11%, more than offsetting Friday’s 5.3% earnings-triggered losses, after SEB raised its recommendation on the Swedish online retail group to buy from hold, saying the “worst may now be behind” it
• Dr Martens shares gain as much as 11%, the most in two months, after Peel Hunt raised the recommendation to buy from add, saying shares have not yet factored in the company’s growth potential
• Valneva gains as much as 13% and reaches its highest level since 2023 after the French company said Canada has granted marketing authorization for the firm’s chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ in individuals aged 12 years and older
• Pantheon Resources shares rise as much as 17%, the most since January, after the oil and gas explorer reported that it has found hydrocarbons at the Dubhe-1 appraisal well
• Echo Investment gained as much as 5.6%, hitting an eight-year high, after the Polish real estate developer sold a portfolio of residential properties to TAG Immobilien for €565 million
• Commerzbank falls as much as 4.5% after Deutsche Bank cut its recommendation on the German lender to hold from buy, with analysts saying its valuation looks “stretched” after shares rallied 200% over the past year
• Cranswick shares fall after a newspaper report alleging animal cruelty at one of the meat supplier’s sites in eastern England; the company says in a statement on its website it was “horrified” to see “unaccaptable historic footage”

In the UK, money markets trimmed bets that the Bank of England will cut rates this year, as signs of faster inflation and a more resilient economy reduce the case for more easing. Swaps are implying a less-than-50% chance of a quarter-point cut by December. A reduction was fully priced earlier this month.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by gains in India on government plans to cut consumption taxes, and in China on optimism over easing trade tensions with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%, with Recruit Holdings and Toyota among the key drivers. A gauge of Shanghai-listed stocks closed at its highest level in a decade, as local investors continued to pour in cash. Stocks also advanced in Australia, Taiwan, and Japan. In contrast, shares fell in South Korea, weighed by a selloff in chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Donald Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil following his weekend meeting with Vladimir Putin. Buzz is building over mainland Chinese shares, which have underperformed Hong Kong stocks this year amid concerns over trade and the health of the economy. Shares in India jumped after Narendra Modi’s Independence Day speech, which included plans to cut the consumption tax for the first time since it was introduced nearly a decade ago. Consumer electronics and auto makers led gains.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The kiwi is the best-performing G-10 currency, rising 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries slightly richer across the curve, following similar gains across European bonds as investors weigh potential impact of Monday’s political talks on the Russia-Ukraine war, ahead of Jackson Hole later in the week.  Treasuries’ Monday gains were concentrated at the longer end of the curve, diverging from August’s steepening. The two-year yield slipped one basis point to 3.74%, while the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.29%. Money markets are pricing in around an 80% likelihood of a quarter-point cut next month and at least one more by the end of the year. Treasury yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 2s10s spread flatter by around 1.2bp as 10-year outperforms. In Europe, 30-year German yields drop around 3.5bp with the German 2s10s spread tighter by almost 3bp on the day in a wider bull flattening move. The long-end of the German curve outperforms, partially retracing Friday’s move to the highest yields since 2011. Duration events this week also include 20-year bond sale Wednesday and long-end TIPS auction Thursday.

“Close focus for many falls on moves in bond markets, and notably on the slope of the yield curves,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “Powell’s guidance at Jackson Hole will therefore be important in showing how he balances the focus on inflation versus growth and labor markets.”

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 0.6% to near $66.20 a barrel ahead of a meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. European natural gas futures are also up more than 1%. Spot gold rises about $13. Bitcoin falls more than 2% amid a retreat in major cryptocurrencies which pushed the market’s total capitalization under $4 billion after it scaled record peaks last week. Bitcoin trades just under $115k; Ethereum sinks below USD 4.3k, and underperforms vs peers, even as news hits that both Strategy at Bitminer were busy adding to their BTC/ETH treasuries, respectively.

Today’s economic data slate includes New York services business activity (8:30am) and NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman at 12:45pm, speaking on Bloomberg TV. On Friday at 10am Chair Powell speaks at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on the subject of economic outlook and framework review

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.29%
• VIX +0.7 points at 15.82
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 120.49
• euro -0.2% at $1.1684
• WTI crude +0.8% at $63.28/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his European allies will meet Donald Trump in Washington today. The US is expected to focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia, while Ukraine will seek details of Trump’s offer of possible US security guarantees, according to a person familiar. BBG
• Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”
• White House trade adviser Peter Navarro slammed India’s Russian oil purchases as “opportunistic and deeply corrosive” in an FT op-ed. FT
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has reportedly said that he believes AI could be in a bubble, comparing market conditions to those of the dotcom boom in the 1990s. “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes,” he’s quoted as saying. CNBC
• China’s capital outflows hit a record $58.3 billion in July, driven by purchases of Hong Kong assets by mainland investors. BBG
• China’s exports of rare earth products — including magnets — extended their recovery in July, months after Beijing threatened a disruptive global shortage by crimping supplies to fight a trade clash with Trump. Shipments jumped last month to reach their highest since January. BBG
• The PBOC is signaling it may delay broad easing measures such as interest rate or RRR cuts until later this year. BBG
• India’s government will slash the consumption tax it charges consumers and businesses by October, a top official said on Friday, hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced sweeping tax reforms to boost the economy in the face of a trade conflict with Washington. RTRS
• An Air Canada union defied a government order to return to work, forcing the airline to delay plans to restart operations over the weekend. The carrier now expects to resume flights at 4 p.m. Toronto time today. BBG
• Thoma Bravo is in discussions to buy Dayforce, people familiar said. It has an enterprise value of more than $9 billion. BBG
• Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she added that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind and that Fed officials have to balance inflation and labour mandates. Daly also stated that the economy has slowed but is not slow, and there is still room to recalibrate the policy rate.

Russia-Ukraine: US Headlines

• Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was “a 10” and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.
• Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.
• Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”
• US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.
• Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine Headlines

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.

Russia-Ukraine: Russia Headlines

• Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
• Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.
• Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.

Russia-Ukraine: European Headlines

• European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.
• European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.
• EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.
• EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.
• German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.
• French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.
• Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil.
• US government officially posted the Section 232 tariff codes for steel and aluminium products on Friday, in which the BIS is adding 407 Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes to the list of products that will be considered as steel or aluminium derivative products.
• White House Trade Advisor Navarro wrote in the FT that India’s oil lobby is funding Russia’s war machine which has to stop, while he added that if India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the US, it needs to start acting like one.
• US negotiators’ August 25th visit to New Delhi for trade talks was called off and the current round of negotiations for a proposed US-India bilateral trade deal is now likely to be deferred to another date, according to NDTV Profit.
• EU push to prevent the US from targeting the bloc’s landmark digital rules is reportedly holding up a trade statement with the US, according to FT.
• German government spokesperson states that the US’s role in potential Ukraine security guarantees will be discussed in Washington today. Chancellor Merz is among the attendees at tonight’s Washington meeting.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit which was said to have made great progress, although some of the gains were capped as the attention turned to President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders later today. Focus this week will also be on Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium. ASX 200 was ultimately little changed following a choppy performance and after having pulled back from an early fresh record high, with earnings releases remaining in the spotlight including the latest results from big four bank NAB. Nikkei 225 resumed its rally to fresh record highs with little fresh drivers to derail the current momentum for Tokyo stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mostly constructive mood in the region with sentiment also helped after President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil, while the PBoC Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report on Friday noted that China’s economic operation still faces many risks and challenges, but made numerous pledges including to further improve the monetary policy framework, implement and refine moderately loose monetary policy.

Top Asian News

• Chinese authorities have increased calls on investors to pay taxes on their global gains, forcing wealthy individuals to reassess their trading strategies as Beijing tries to boost its funds to counter economic pressures, according to FT.
• India’s federal government proposes reducing the GST rate on small cars to 18% from 28% and proposes lowering GST rate on health and life insurance premiums to a maximum of 5% from the current 18%, according to a source cited by Reuters.
• China’s Commerce Ministry is to extend the investigation into EU dairy products to 21st February 2026.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened modestly lower across the board, and the risk tone continued to deteriorate as the morning progressed, with all major indices falling into negative territory; currently at lows. European sectors are split down the middle, in quiet trade. Utilities takes the top spot, joined closely by Real Estate and Health Care; the latter has been buoyed by upside in heavy-weight Novo Nordisk (+5.2%). The Co. benefits after receiving accelerated US FDA approval for liver disease MASH. Elsewhere, Vestas Wind Systems (+16%) gains after the US provided new guidance on renewable tax credits, essentially clarifying that projects can qualify under the One Big Beautiful Bill’s safe-harbor provision if they show physical work and not just early spending, to then access the Inflation Reduction Act credit.

• UK government discounts for electric vans and trucks have been extended with plug-in van and truck grants extended to at least 2027.
• Universities & Colleges Employers Association warned that UK ministers risk exacerbating staff job cuts at post-1992 universities in England and Wales unless they allow institutions more flexibility with their pension offerings, according to FT.
• ECB’s Holzmann called for more transparency on the ECB’s policy decisions in a last suggestion before departing the central bank this month.
• Moody’s affirmed Ireland at Aa3; Outlook Positive.

FX

• DXY initially traded rangebound after last Friday’s mixed data releases and with little fresh catalysts aside from the geopolitical headlines, while participants also look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. However, EUR-led weakness led to saw some modest upside in the Dollar index, to make a fresh peak at 98.06 (more below). Do note that there were comments from Fed’s Daly over the weekend, who said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she noted that they have to be ahead to not be behind. DXY resides in a 97.78-98.06 range, vs Friday’s 97.72-98.21 parameter. DXY today sees its 50 DMA at 98.08.
• EUR takes a breather from recent advances and trades on either side of 1.1700 with various European leaders set to visit the White House on Monday for talks with Trump and Zelensky. On this front, “European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today: 1) pin down more details on possible US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the possible trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps”, via Eurasia. EUR/USD resides in a current 1.1672-1.1716 range with the 50 DMA at 1.1637.
• USD/JPY gradually edged higher north of the 147.00 level overnight with the Japanese currency marginally pressured amid the outperformance in Japanese stocks. USD/JPY trades in a current 147.06-147.58 range, well within Friday’s 146.74-147.89 range, with the 50 DMA at 146.54 and the 200 DMA at 149.25.
• GBP continues to struggle for direction amid quiet pertinent newsflow and with very little scheduled for the UK at the start of the week before Wednesday’s inflation data. GBP/USD trades in a 1.3532-1.3565 range.
• Antipodeans remain afloat despite the firmer dollar and downward tilt in risk sentiment, and losses across most base metals, with traders also eyeing the widely expected rate cut at the RBNZ meeting scheduled mid-week. There is nothing obvious to explain the resilience in the non-US dollars.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1322 vs exp. 7.1793 (Prev. 7.1371).

Fixed Income

• A morning of modest gains for the complex. Driven higher by the apprehensive risk tone after the fallout of the Alaska summit. In brief, no ceasefire was agreed upon, but we did see Russian President Putin say that they would be willing to freeze the southern front lines in exchange for Ukraine withdrawing from certain regions. USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks so far, at a 111-26+ peak. If the move continues, then we look to the 111-30+ peak from last Friday before the figure and then last week’s peak at 112-14.
• Bunds are firmer, in-fitting with USTs. Reacting to the risk tone and more so than USTs at this moment in time, perhaps as the geopolitical equation directly adds in European leaders today. As it stands, Bunds have notched a 129.18 peak with upside of almost 40 ticks at most. While relatively pronounced, we remain some way shy of 129.62 from last Friday and then the 130.06 peak from last week.
• Gilts again, echoes of the above, but caught between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. The UK is also exposed to the evening’s meetings as PM Starmer is in attendance. Into the meeting, Gilts have eased ever so slightly from a 91.32 peak where they notched gains of just over 20 ticks. As is the case with peers, this has stalled before Friday’s 91.68 peak before the figure and then last week’s 92.37 best.

Commodities

• Oil was little changed with demand constrained following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, which President Trump said had made great progress, while he is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House today. More recently, oil prices have caught a slight bid, and currently reside at the top-end of recent ranges. Nothing really behind the latest bout of upside, but potentially as traders digest the weekend’s Russia/Ukraine developments. WTI currently resides in a USD 61.65-62.52/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.47-66.31/bbl range.
• Two-way trade across precious metals and gained after rebounding from an initial dip, with few catalysts outside of geopolitics. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold trading on either side of its 50 DMA (3,349.60/oz) in a USD 3,323.68-3,358.49/oz range.
• Copper eked out marginal gains overnight amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region. However, dollar strength and a worsening of sentiment in the European morning prompted the base metals complex to trade mostly in negative territory. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,727.55-9,770.30/t range.
• Indian Oil Corp Exec says processed 24% Russian oil in June quarter (prev. 14% in March quarter)
• UBS reiterates its end-2025 and March 2026 Brent crude oil view to USD 62/bbl, on higher supply front South America and resilient output from sanctioned countries.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Tehran will continue talks with the IAEA.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports a heavy rain event caused the release at 236k bpd, Joliet Illinois Refinery.
• Hungarian Foreign Minister says Russian oil flows to Hungary are halted after the Ukrainian attack on pipeline transformer station.
• NHC says Category 4 Hurricane Erin located just east of the Southeast Bahamas; Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the US Eastern Seaboard this week.
• Ukraine’s foreign minister states that Hungary has made efforts to sustain its dependence on Russian oil.

Geopolitics

• Israel’s navy carried out an attack against a power station south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday.
• Israel’s military began providing tents and shelter equipment for Gazans in preparation for relocating residents from combat zones to southern Gaza.
• Hamas said the entry of tents by Israel into the southern Gaza Strip under ‘humanitarian arrangements’ is blatant deception and the new Israeli relocation plan is a new wave of genocide and displacement.
• Israel PM Netanyahu has “recently intensified his meetings with close associates in preparation for the possibility of early elections”, via Al Jazeera citing sources.
• “Hamas has received a new offer from the mediators for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and is expected to respond to it today”, according to Israeli journalist citing Qatar’s Al-Arabi TV.
• “A diplomatic source involved in the negotiations between Egypt and Qatar and Hamas told me that in light of the fact that there was not enough progress in yesterday’s talks in Cairo”, according to Axios’ Ravid.
• US President Trump said he believes that Chinese President Xi will not act on Taiwan, while it was separately reported that Trump said Chinese President Xi told him that he would never invade Taiwan while Trump is President, while he also said that he and China are very patient, according to a Fox News interview.
• Chinese Foreign Ministry on US President Trump’s comments on China, says will not allow anyone or any force to separate Taiwan from China in any way.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Aug NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 34, prior 33

Central Banks (All Times ET):

• 12:45 pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on BTV

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we arrive at a new week, the focus is still on Ukraine this morning, as the world reacts to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska last Friday. The main headline was that no deal was reached on a ceasefire, but multiple outlets reported that Putin wanted Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and he offered Trump a freeze across the rest of the frontline in return. Moreover, Trump himself posted that he now wanted to “go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.” 

After the summit, Trump then spoke with European leaders, although the joint statement from the European leaders made clear that “It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory.” Then today, Trump is meeting President Zelensky at 13:15 ET, before a multilateral leading with European leaders at 15:00 ET. That group will include UK PM Starmer, French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz and Commission President Von der Leyen. In his post, Trump also said that “If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin.”

Clearly, we’ll have to wait and see what happens today, but Trump was saying yesterday morning that there had been “BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA. STAY TUNED!” And separately, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said on CNN that “We got to an agreement that the US and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine”, which is the NATO article which says that an attack on one member will be considered an attack on all. Trump has also been calling on Zelensky to make a deal, and just a few hours ago, he posted that Zelensky “can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.” However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed expectations of a deal yesterday, saying that “We are not at the precipice of a peace agreement.” 

Aside from the geopolitical situation, markets find themselves in an interesting position as we begin the week. On the one hand, there’s been incredible buoyancy across risk assets that’s seen valuations become increasingly stretched. Indeed, the S&P 500 hit another record last Thursday, whilst US IG credit spreads ended last week at their tightest level since 1998. But at the same time, futures are pricing in over 100bps of Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, even with inflation widely expected to pick up given the tariffs. So that’s contributed to a significant curve steepening, with the US 5s30s curve ending last week at its steepest since 2021. And long-end yields have continued to creep higher more broadly, with the German 30yr yield reaching its highest since 2011 on Friday, at 3.35%. So those fiscal concerns from earlier in the year haven’t gone away either. 

Overnight in Asia, that risk-on move has continued for the most part. For instance, Japan’s Nikkei (+0.77%) is currently on track for a record high, the Shanghai Comp (+1.18%) is on course for its highest close since 2015, whilst the CSI 300 (+1.50%) is on track for its highest close since July 2022. South Korea is the exception, as the KOSPI is down -1.16% this morning amidst losses among chipmakers. But futures in the US and Europe are pointing towards modest gains too, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.11%) and the DAX (+0.16%) both up this morning. 

In terms of the week ahead, the main focus away from the White House will be the Fed’s symposium at Jackson Hole, where we’ll hear central bankers including Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Bear in mind that the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole has often been used to send important policy signals, and it was last year that Powell said the “time has come for policy to adjust” before they then cut rates at the next meeting for the first time since the pandemic. This time around, we don’t have the full agenda yet, but the subtitle for Powell’s speech on the Fed’s website says “Economic Outlook and Framework Review”, so we can expect some insight on those topics. 

The last time the Fed had a review in 2020, that resulted in a shift towards average inflation targeting. In essence, they said that after periods when inflation had been persistently beneath 2% (like the 2010s), then monetary policy could seek to reach inflation a bit above 2% to counteract that. The Fed also reinterpreted their approach to full employment, in that a tight labour market alone wasn’t a reason to raise rates. So that implied a move away from the pre-emptive approach whereby the Fed would tighten policy to get ahead of future inflation as the labour market tightened. Of course, we now know that shortly after the framework review, there was then a major burst of inflation, and although it had many drivers, our US economists concluded in a Friday note (link here) that the new framework was a contributor to that overshoot. So this time around, they expect Powell’s speech to call for rolling back the 2020 modifications and restoring a primary role for pre-emption. 

When it comes to the near-term path for policy, futures are still pricing in a September rate cut as the most likely outcome. But there was a clear shift last Thursday, as the PPI inflation release for July showed the fastest monthly inflation since March 2022. So that made it clear that a September cut still wasn’t a done deal, particularly with the emerging signs of tariff-driven inflation. And we still know there’s more to come on the tariff front, as Trump said on Friday that he’d be “setting tariffs next week and the week after, on steel and on, I would, say chips — chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting sometime next week, week after”. So that’s one to keep an eye on, and Trump also suggested that the semiconductor rate could be as high as 300%. 

Staying on inflation, we’ve got some more releases out this week, including from Japan, the UK and Canada. The UK will be an important one, as the June reading was unexpectedly strong, with headline inflation rising to +3.6%. Moreover, our UK economist expects it to take another step up in July to +3.8%. By contrast in Japan, our economist sees headline inflation easing a bit to +3.1% in July, down from 3.3% in June. Otherwise, the main data release will be the August flash PMIs on Thursday, which will offer an initial indication on the global economy’s performance this month, particularly with the latest tariffs that have been imposed. 

Elsewhere this week, we’ve got a few more earnings releases coming out, although it’s very much the end of the current season with over 90% of the S&P 500 having reported by now. This week’s highlights include several US retailers, including Walmart and Target, which should offer a fresh insight into consumer spending. Last Friday, the US retail sales numbers were pretty robust in July, with the headline reading up +0.5% (vs. +0.6% expected), alongside an upward revision to June as well. However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index painted a weaker picture for August, with the headline index unexpectedly falling to 58.6 (vs. 62.0 expected), alongside an uptick for inflation expectations.

Recapping last week now, equities continued to push higher, and the S&P 500 moved up +0.94% for the week. The biggest gains happened on Tuesday after the US CPI report, as it was broadly in line with expectations, and kept the prospect of Fed rate cuts on the table for the months ahead. So that supported a broad-based advance, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 up by an even bigger +1.47%. Moreover, there was a global risk-on move that saw Europe’s STOXX 600 rise +1.18% last week, with outperformances from Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.47%) and France’s CAC 40 (+2.33%). And in Japan, the Nikkei (+3.73%) closed at a record high as the country’s Q2 growth surprised on the upside. 

Meanwhile on the rates side, there was a decent steepening in yield curves last week, with the 2yr Treasury yield down -1.2bps to 3.75%, whilst the 10yr yield rose +3.3bps to 4.32%, and the 30yr yield was up +6.9bps to 4.92%. That came amidst shifts in Fed pricing over the course of the week, with a more dovish path initially after the CPI report and suggestions from Treasury Secretary Bessent for lower rates, before that was pared back after the PPI reading and the higher inflation expectations in the University of Michigan’s survey. So, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting ultimately fell from 57bps to 54bps over the week. Meanwhile in Europe, government bonds also struggled, with 10yr bund yields up +9.9bps to 2.79%, whilst the 30yr German yield (+14.3bps) posted its biggest weekly jump since March, reaching a post-2011 high of 3.35%.

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Nearly a century removed, President Donald Trump heralded his Democratic predecessor FDR for “one of the most significant pieces of legislation ever signed into law,” the bill that created Social Security.

The program turned 90 this month. Without reform, its 100th anniversary is not guaranteed.

President Trump still heralded FDR for the program, created at the height of the Great Depression, and vowed in the Oval Office to preserve and improve it “for 90 years and beyond.” The president said this was his “sacred pledge to our seniors.” Had he not returned to the White House, Trump boasted, “Social Security was going to be destroyed.”

And true to his word, Trump has not meddled with senior benefits. His marquee legislation has, in fact, reduced their tax burden by making Social Security benefits tax-free. But the actuarial tables are less rosy than the president put on in front of the cameras.

According to new estimates from the program’s chief actuary, Karen Glenn, Social Security will not make it to its 100th birthday as things stand. Instead, the trust fund will be insolvent in just seven years. Money was expected to run out by the first quarter of 2033, but after the One Big Beautiful Bill became law and made benefits tax-free, that forecast was moved up slightly to the fourth quarter of 2032.

At that point, according to analysis by the Congressional Research Service, the federal government would have three options at the point: increase taxes, decrease benefits, or a combination of the two.

Trump, who will have joined the ranks of former presidents by then, seemed unconcerned with those predictions. “You keep hearing stories that ‘in six years, seven years, Social Security will be gone,’” he told reporters, “and it will be if the Democrats ever get involved because they don’t know what they’re doing.” So long as his party is in control, he promised, “it’s going to be around a long time with us.”

Despite accusations from the left, Republicans have been unwilling to touch the program despite the flashing fiscal warning lights. A political football during campaign season, the popular entitlement is an entrenched third rail on Capitol Hill.

The financial troubles of Social Security are not new. They have worsened through both Republican and Democratic administrations alike. Every single report published by the Social Security trustees since 1983, as the liberal Brookings Institution notes, has found that the program faces a shortfall. Confronting that fiscal cliff was once conservative orthodoxy.

Former President George W. Bush warned that Social Security was “headed toward bankruptcy.” Betting much of his legacy on the reform, the Republican proposed partial privatization and a provision allowing citizens to divert some of their taxes into investments. Ultimately, it was stillborn and never even received a vote in Congress. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney later proposed more modest reforms while running for president, like increasing the retirement age and reducing benefits for the wealthy, only to be pilloried on the campaign trail.

Despite warnings from Elon Musk, who described Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time” while still a member of the administration, Trump has shown no appetite for overhauling the program in its entirety. His administration has instead focused on making the bureaucracy more efficient while rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse.

Social Security Administrator Frank Bisignano has been at the helm of the agency for less than three months and arrived at the White House eager to give a report.

Customer service has improved; the average wait time is down from 30 minutes to six. New technology has gone live; seniors can now access information 24//7 online about their benefits. The backlog of disability claims has been reduced by 26% and 3.1 million payments were sent to beneficiaries months ahead of schedule.

To the delight of the president, more than a quarter of a million illegal immigrants have been removed from the system, and millions over the age of 100 have been removed from the rolls, though it is unclear if a majority of those deceased centenarians were still receiving payments.

After the modernization efforts are complete and fraud is addressed, Bisignano told reporters, “When we do all that, then we’ll really know the answer to if we have a hole.”

Some experts find that kind of assessment overoptimistic and stress that fraud is already comparatively rare in Social Security. “There is always room for improvement, especially when it comes to the disability program,” the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget concluded in a recent paper, “but fraud and abuse are rare in the Social Security program – certainly not large enough to make a significant difference in the program’s finances.”

A spokesperson for the Social Security Administration told RealClearPolitics that ensuring the long-term health of the trust fund remains “a top priority” and that Bisignano is committed to working with Congress, the White House, and other stakeholders to strengthen the program.

“During the Oval Office event today,” the spokesperson continued, “Commissioner Bisignano detailed some of the ways SSA is working to tackle waste, fraud, and abuse under President Trump’s leadership to ensure that the program can continue to thrive for the next 90 years.”

Novo Nordisk shares gained in Copenhagen trading on Monday after the U.S. FDA approved Wegovy for the treatment of metabolic-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), a severe form of liver disease. The approval gives Novo a first-mover advantage over Eli Lilly in the U.S. market. 

Year-to-date, Novo shares have lost nearly 50% amid intensifying GLP-1 competition, including Eli Lilly’s obesity drug Zepbound and copycat threats (GLP-1 compounds) from companies such as telehealth company Hims & Hers Health. The MASH approval offers a potential incremental growth driver and could reverse some of the negative sentiment surrounding the stock this year. This raises the question for investors whether current stock levels represent a buy-the-dip opportunity. 

The FDA’s decision marks the second positive news for Novo this month, following Lilly’s oral obesity pill, orforglipron, that met its primary endpoints but fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. At the time, shares of Lilly plunged in the U.S., the most since the Dot Com bust, while Novo shares rose. 

Wegovy’s approval for MASH puts Novo ahead of Lilly, which is still preparing trials for Zepbound and its next-generation drug, retatrutide.

Commentary from Wall Street analysts: 

BMO Capital Markets (Market Perform, Evan Seigerman):

• FDA approval of Wegovy for MASH could help shift sentiment after a tough start to the year marked by compounder competition and guidance cuts.

• Sees potential for $1.9B in peak global unadjusted revenues from the MASH indication, with secondary uses like this expected to broaden Wegovy’s coverage over time.

• Maintains cautious stance, calling Novo a “show-me story” into 2H25. Key catalysts to watch: Wegovy’s positioning with CVS and the expected 4Q decision on 25mg oral semaglutide for obesity.

UBS (Neutral, Matthew Weston):

• Positive. 3Q timing known but earlier than expected. Label in line F2-F3 MASH. Adds growth driver & temporary differentiation vs tirzepatide (UBSe MASH label 2027 launch). NPV: $500m US Wegovy MASH peak, 0.7% NPV ($1b peak Globally, 1.2% NPV).

Wegovy being cleared for MASH is a step in the right direction for investors after suffering a 45% decline on the year. Shares in Copenhagen on Monday are higher by about 6%. 

For Novo shares to rebound meaningfully, the company must address compounded GLP-1 knockoffs that have flooded the U.S. market, undermining demand and slowing Wegovy’s expansion. Novo noted in its earnings release earlier this month that it is “pursuing multiple strategies, including litigation, to protect patients from knockoff ‘semaglutide’ drugs.” Meanwhile, the clock is ticking for HIMS.

Six months ago, the advocacy group American Truckers United (ATU) emerged as a prominent voice on X (read here), leading the charge within the U.S. trucking sector against the massive influx of non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) holders – allowed under the globalist Biden-Harris regime – that has transformed America’s highways into both a public safety crisis and a national security risk.

Highway crashes involving migrant truck drivers – brought into the U.S. and granted CDLs in sanctuary states with little oversight – are fueling a dangerous nationwide crisis playing out by the week, with mounting highway crashes, killing innocent Americans who are lost in the blink of an eye.

The latest deadly crash involved what Florida officials describe as an illegal alien trucker who “entered the United States illegally, having crossed the Mexico border in 2018.” The defendant then obtained a Commercial Driver’s License in the state of California.” He killed three Americans last week after executing an illegal U-turn on Florida’s Turnpike near Fort Pierce. 

Truck Driver From “California” Now Confirmed To Be An Illegal Alien. Florida Makes First Arrest in CDL Crisis!

“State Troopers determined that Harjinder Singh entered the United States illegally, having crossed the Mexico border in 2018. The Defendant then obtained a… https://t.co/iSZyRr2X3z pic.twitter.com/t3EVAzvsLm

— American Truckers 🚛🦅 (@atutruckers) August 17, 2025

Video of the crash is absolutely shocking:

The American Trucking Industry has been gutted by unregulated immigration over the past five years. These “California ” drivers are part of an eco system that puts profit over safety. That puts greed before your family.

A system that not only doesn’t put Americans first but… pic.twitter.com/HZBXWg0eck

— American Truckers 🚛🦅 (@atutruckers) August 16, 2025

By Saturday evening, the story of the CDL crisis had gone absolutely viral on X. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy responded on X about the Florida crash. He blamed the Biden-Harris regime’s globalist open border policies and even explained that DoT investigators have “uncovered serious red flags in how states are doling out these CDLs.” 

Duffy suggests that sanctuary states, run by Democrats, issued CDLs to migrants and illegal aliens who should never have been behind the wheel of an 80,000-pound big rig.

What’s key to understand in Duffy’s X post is this: “We’ll have more to share in the coming weeks.” 

This is exactly why in June I announced a nationwide audit of non-domiciled CDLs!

Joe Biden’s reckless immigration policies allowed many unqualified foreign drivers on our roads who have no business operating a 40-ton truck. This is only one of many tragic accidents that should… https://t.co/S1CCOL0Zvg

— Secretary Sean Duffy (@SecDuffy) August 16, 2025

Recall, in June, ATU sent a letter to Duffy about the urgent need to address a national security crisis in America’s trucking industry and prevent more deaths on highways. 

The letter exposed how illegal labor, exploiting loopholes from Biden-era policies, has flooded the industry with unvetted drivers. 

American Truckers United delivered a letter to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, requesting support for our petition to ban non-domicile CDLs issued to non-citizens and to restrict foreign CDLs. https://t.co/uQv0hwIvmC pic.twitter.com/z71Ba8XnJ6

— American Truckers 🚛🦅 (@atutruckers) June 19, 2025

In late June, the DoT enforced the English Language Proficiency (ELP) rule to address the crisis on America’s highways. 

Then ATU issued a dire warning to all Americans about the hundreds of thousands of migrant truck drivers on highways – some of whom cannot speak English and read road signs… 

🚨Non-Citizen Truck Drivers Involved in Highway Crisis

This is an urgent wake-up call for every American. Our highways are no longer safe. Reckless immigration policies and weakened licensing standards have unleashed a deadly crisis on our roads. pic.twitter.com/NXrQTivkos

— American Truckers 🚛🦅 (@atutruckers) July 10, 2025

Americans deserve accountability for this globalist-created crisis on the nation’s highways. That accountability must start at the local, state, and federal levels, especially in those states that handed out CDLs to migrants like candy. Then accountability must be on the corporate level… This is all coming… 

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

While the green pseudo-economy drags the broader economy into the basement, two-thirds of Germans say they are satisfied with renewable energy or even want to see it expanded more rapidly. Meanwhile, the construction of a European war economy marks the next stage in Europe’s ongoing impoverishment.

The most popular yet most destructive economic strategy remains the modern interpretation of Keynesianism. With his oversimplified view of economic activity, the British economist John Maynard Keynes inadvertently handed postwar politicians a toolkit that they later perverted into an all-purpose “solution” for every economic crisis. The condensed version reads as follows: nearly every recession stems from a demand shortfall by consumers. The state’s job, therefore, is to create artificial credit to fill this demand gap.

Recipe for Bureaucratic Expansion

Lower interest rates, print credit, and—so the fairy tale goes—the economy takes off. In reality, what remains is a mountain of state debt, a swelling bureaucracy, distorted financial markets, and declining productivity. These are economic facts, easily verified even by non-economists. Prosperity arises from a growing capital stock that serves consumer demand efficiently and precisely with more goods and services.

Keynesian policy has proven disastrous for Europe, because it hands politicians a permanent excuse to expand their influence, build bureaucracy, and manipulate markets. Political institutions such as the European Commission, most European parties, and the governments of member states operate almost exclusively in this mode.

The Green Deal

It was in this spirit that the Green Deal was born—a pseudo-economy disguised as “green transformation” and sold to the public as a contribution to saving the planet. In truth, it is a monstrous contraption, a grotesque response to Europe’s strategic energy dependency, which devours ever-larger portions of the economy each year just to keep its oversized subsidy machine running.

In 2024 alone, Germany poured between €90 and €100 billion into this machine. The federal government provided €58 billion, while the European Investment Bank added €8.6 billion in fresh loans, the EU’s InvestEU program €9.1 billion, and the EU’s Innovation and Environment Funds about €20 billion. Without this constant flow of financing, the zombie economy would collapse. As if to prove the point, the German government has funneled another €100 billion of debt—disguised as a “special fund”—into the ever-hungry green subsidy machine.

Pseudo-economies survive only through new injections of capital, producing continuously against market demand. Internal tensions rise until collapse becomes inevitable. The Green Deal has trapped Europe in precisely this downward spiral.

The Spillover

Germany is now in its third year of recession and recording a record number of corporate bankruptcies. At the same time, the government has added half a million public-sector jobs in just six years, while 1.2 million private-sector jobs disappeared. Combined with uncontrolled migration, the result is extreme pressure on Germany’s welfare system.

Politics has retreated into a purely defensive posture: the welfare state as a catch basin for the hundreds of thousands losing their livelihoods, while the private sector collapses under the burden of energy costs and subsidies.

The diagnosis is clear: the Green Deal is a dead end. Every euro spent on it crowds out private capital markets, misallocates resources, and shackles workers in unproductive sectors. The contrast with Argentina is striking: there, President Milei slashed the state’s share of GDP by six percentage points and triggered an economic boom of 7.7% growth.

Transformation Requires Pain

The only way out for Europe is to accept a painful transformation phase, shrink the state, and abandon its eco-fantasies. Rational energy policy means nuclear power and reintegrating Russian energy supplies.

Yet public opinion tells a different story: 64% of Germans are satisfied with renewables or want more of them. Years of state propaganda have erased the link between green subsidies and economic collapse. The climate-change narrative- moralized and weaponized – has cemented itself into public consciousness.

Renewables may have their place, but only in free markets, without coercion or forced levies. The green zombie economy has never succeeded in reviving Europe’s growth. It is time to face reality and tear down this structure before anything new can be built.

The Next Attempt

But Europe shows no signs of changing course. The bureaucracy has grown too large to dismantle itself. From Berlin to Brussels, leaders treat the industrial exodus as a series of unfortunate accidents rather than the direct result of their policies. The cozy “Made for Germany” roundtable between Friedrich Merz and DAX CEOs confirmed the suspicion of corporate-statist collusion.

Having failed with the Green Deal, Europe’s politicians are now trying a new pseudo-economy: a debt-fueled military-industrial complex. According to a study by Ernst & Young, Germany’s DAX companies cut 30,000 jobs in the first half of 2025—except for defense contractors Rheinmetall and MTU Aero Engines, which increased headcount by 17% and 7%, respectively.

The EU’s plan: by 2035, half of all European defense goods—from artillery and cyber defense to precision munitions—will be produced within the bloc, creating up to 660,000 jobs. This will be financed not only by swelling national defense budgets but also by EU programs like ReARM Europe and SAFE, which will raise hundreds of billions in new debt.

Eyes Wide Shut

Brussels plans to mobilize an additional €800 billion in defense spending by 2030. Yet no sector produces further from real consumer demand than the arms industry. This is Keynesian pseudo-economics in its most extreme form—buying time with debt while starving private capital markets.

The rise of the defense lobby as Brussels’ new darling will turbocharge corruption, deepen the divide between parasitic EU structures and shrinking productive forces, and cement corporatist cronyism as the EU’s operating system. Von der Leyen’s Pfizer text-message scandal remains the most fitting symbol of this clandestine Brussels machine.

In the end, Europe’s war economy has neither the resources nor the technology to deliver on the dream of a militarized EU. It is a tragic rerun of the Green Deal—propaganda-driven, debt-fueled, and doomed to collapse.

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As Microsoft moves toward ending its support of Windows 10, PC users who haven’t yet upgraded to Windows 11 now have less than 60 days to take action to make sure their devices are receiving updates for cyber threats.

On Aug. 16, Windows 10 users may have noticed a message on their devices, warning that they have 60 days left to take action before security and feature updates and technical support for their PC ends on Oct. 14.

Microsoft announced in 2023 that it was ending support for its Windows 10 platform as it rolled out Windows 11—calling it its “home for AI”and its “most secure version of Windows ever” due to “hardware-based” advanced security features.

“Companies and organizations that operate Windows 10 may find it challenging to maintain regulatory compliance with unsupported software,” Microsoft said in a blog post in June.

Not all PC users are able to or want to switch to a new operating system that offers new AI functionalities. Some older devices are not compatible with Windows 11, due to the system’s increased processing and hardware requirements. According to market share data, around 700 million PC users, or 43 percent, are still using Windows 10, which was launched in July 2015. Windows 11 holds about 53 percent of the market share.

The company has faced legal action demanding that it extend free support for Windows 10 users until their market share drops below 10 percent, although it’s yet to be seen if the complaint will succeed in court. Windows 10 has been one of Microsoft’s most popular operating systems.

Currently, Windows 10 users will have to take action before the Oct. 14 deadline to make sure their devices don’t fall off support after critical security updates end.

“With Windows 10 support coming to an end in October, we’re here to provide information and resources to help you choose the path that works best for you—whether that’s exploring the next generation of Windows, staying on your current PC with the Extended Security Program (ESU) or moving to a cloud-based solution,” the company said on the transition.

Although users’ Windows 10 devices will continue to function, “they will no longer receive regular security updates, making them more vulnerable to cyber threats, such as malware and viruses.”

Microsoft is rolling out enrolment in its transition program, which allows those on the Windows 10 system to continue to receive security support until October 2026.

“The Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU) program is designed to keep your current Windows 10 PC protected after support ends—helping you stay secure during the transition,” the company said.

The company has also said it plans to continue offering security updates for Microsoft Defender Antivirus through October 2028. Microsoft 365 Apps will also continue to receive security updates until Oct. 10, 2028. However, feature updates for the apps will be discontinued from August next year. Technical support will also not be extended for Windows 10 users.

“These updates are intended to help ease customers’ transition to Windows 11 and will be delivered through standard update channels. These updates do not include technical support,” Microsoft said.

To continue receiving support from Microsoft, users have two options: enrol in the ESU program with an annual payment or link their devices to Microsoft’s cloud.

The first option will cost individual users $30. The payment can be made using a Microsoft account, and will cover as many as 10 devices through to Oct. 13, 2026. Alternatively, accounts can use 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points as payment.

Users have also been offered a cloud-based solution. In this option, they can choose to sync their Windows 10 device to Microsoft’s cloud service, Windows 365, which will allow them to access Windows 11 Cloud PCs on Microsoft’s servers. Those with a lot of data can sign up for a Windows 365 cloud service plan.

The link for ESU enrolment can be found on the company’s Windows Update page.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The United States is fighting against EU opinion control on digital platforms. From the perspective of the European Commission, this constitutes an unacceptable interference in internal affairs, which is why it is now delaying the ratification of the trade deal. In the meantime, the cost of higher tariffs due to the delay is being borne by the European economy.

Dealing with the EU is truly a headache. To be precise: The European Commission, under the leadership of its President Ursula von der Leyen, is currently squandering the last remnants of respect and trust it had left after the Pfizer scandal, the strict lockdowns, and continuous attacks on freedom of speech. The issue at hand in the continuation of trade negotiations with the United States concerns exactly this fundamental right of free citizens.

Clear Rules

Everything was essentially settled: The EU conceded and accepted the unilateral tariffs of 15 percent. Moreover, it committed to purchasing U.S. energy, such as liquefied natural gas, worth $750 billion spread over three years. Whether the market can actually absorb this volume and whether private industry can manage the coordination is another question.

The rules are unambiguous: The EU grants U.S. businesses free access to the EU single market, while, of course, the jungle-like harmonization and climate protection regulations still apply. These form the true, complex, and largely insurmountable trade barrier for most international competitors. This intricate framework, the core of the European Commission’s interventionism, was accepted by the Americans. From the perspective of European industry, this is unfortunate, but the devastating domestic effects of EU protectionism and the climate fight under President Trump are irrelevant. It is the responsibility of European citizens to put an end to this disastrous policy.

Root of the Conflict

During the negotiations in Scotland, the U.S. side also made clear that it would not tolerate the massive attacks by Brussels on American communication platforms like X or Meta without pushback. And that is exactly what this is about.

Until the final signing of the trade deal between the U.S. and the EU, the pre-set higher U.S. tariffs remain in effect. For Germany’s key industry—the automotive sector—the delay is disastrous. Instead of 15 percent, manufacturers must still pay the higher tariff of 27.5 percent. The burdens add up: BMW, for example, expected tariffs of one billion euros this year. VW reported a tariff damage of 1.3 billion euros in the first half of the year alone due to U.S. tariffs that only came into force in April.

The tariffs strain already heavily restricted margins due to climate and energy policies. BMW estimates the margin loss from the trade dispute with the U.S. at around 1.25 percent. A quick deal would therefore be crucial to provide the German economy with much-needed relief in its struggle to stay competitive.

Calculation Without von der Leyen

A conclusion of the trade deal would be both possible and reasonable. But the German economy did not count on Ursula von der Leyen. The negotiations could now be finalized quickly to provide legal certainty for German businesses. Washington is ready, and President Trump has likely turned to more important matters. His tolerance for Brussels’ whining and endless trickery is probably limited. Everything points to a quick deal.

Yet for von der Leyen and her Brussels allies, other priorities take precedence.

What this exactly means was made clear last week by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He instructed U.S. diplomats in the European Union to actively oppose the increasingly aggressive implementation of the Digital Services Act (DSA) by Brussels. Cases of abuse and attacks against U.S. citizens should be reported immediately. Rubio also wants active lobbying by U.S. representatives in EU political circles to counter this open attack on freedom of speech.

EU Censorship Attack

More than a month ago, the accompanying Digital Markets Act (DMA) became the focal point of the transatlantic dispute. At that time, Donald Trump insisted on having a say in interpreting the rules, which, like the DSA, primarily targets dominant U.S. communication platforms.

At its core, Brussels aims to enforce its censorship policies precisely on those platforms that are becoming increasingly important for public discourse. Disguised in the politically overused formula of “hate and incitement,” the digital communication space is to be brought under public censorship control.

Brussels has likely noticed that counter-narratives targeting centralized eco-authoritarianism are forming primarily on these platforms. They increasingly expose the functioning and objectives of the EU power apparatus.

To secure its censorship policy, Ursula von der Leyen and her Brussels apparatus willingly accept that, in the end, both companies and European consumers pay the price of the EU’s control mania through higher tariffs.

The U.S. will maintain the current tariff regime until a robust agreement is reached on handling European censorship policy.

Washington’s hardline stance gives hope that Brussels will suffer a significant setback in its attempt to establish a digital speech dictatorship.

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.