OpenAI President Greg Brockman said Thursday that he believes the company has reached artificial general intelligence, and that its latest model, GPT-6 Astra, marks the beginning of the so-called “AGI era,” according to Axios.

Speaking to reporters, Brockman called Astra a “generational leap” and said it could eventually be viewed as the moment AGI arrived. “I think it might be about this model,” he said when asked whether Astra meets that definition.

While there is no agreed-upon test for AGI, and Brockman said that he will leave the final judgment to users, he ended the call with reporters by saying, “Welcome to the AGI era.”

Brockman’s comments raise the stakes for a model OpenAI is positioning as a step beyond chatbots toward systems that can carry out complex professional work with less human direction. Astra is OpenAI’s first model designated as reaching a “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the company’s preparedness framework. The company earlier delayed the release to add safety testing after concluding the model could hit that threshold.

2/6 Created an underwater exploration game in one /goal prompt, all the 3D elements and sounds were made from scratch. pic.twitter.com/mTRTbjYAR7

— Pietro Schirano (@skirano) September 3, 2026

The designation means Astra can find previously unknown software vulnerabilities and build working exploits against hardened systems without being told where to look. OpenAI says the version available through standard access will refuse advanced cyber work, including exploit discovery, with broader access reserved for vetted defenders.

Axios reports:

GPT-6 Astra will first be available to a limited set of organizations in OpenAI’s Daybreak Access program and will be available “in the coming days” for ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business and Enterprise customers and API developers.

“We will need to strengthen our ability to monitor these models either via extending chain-of-thought monitoring, integrating other ideas like activation monitoring, or finding more specific ways to get the models to be more verbose in their chain of thought,” OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki said during the briefing with reporters.

Brockman’s AGI remarks come a day after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang struck a similar tone about the current state of AI.

$NVDA CEO @JensenHuang told Commerce Secretary @howardlutnick at the G20 @g20org today that we are practically at AGI. I think he is right about the direction. Credit to @howardlutnick. Howard has put Commerce at the center of the AI build, and he has treated this as industrial… pic.twitter.com/6RTO0iOQmu

— Patrick F. Feeley (@PFFeeley) September 2, 2026

In a fireside chat Wednesday with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick at the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, Huang said systems would “achieve essentially what people call AGI” in the next couple of years, and that “we’re practically there today.” Whether that milestone “means a lot or it doesn’t mean anything” is a separate question, the Nvidia chief continued.

“Suppose, several hundred years ago, humans, in order to have a more civil society, manufactured one of the most important things in the world, which is called education intelligence. Through universities and schools we manufacture intelligence and we manufacture stability at scale,” he added. “Without it, how would we have civilization? And so now we’re creating the digital version of that. We’re manufacturing now intelligence digitally at scale so that even countries and people who don’t have access to the highest levels of education now have the benefits of the highest levels of education. Okay? And so that’s the simplest way of thinking about what is happening right now.”

Ride-hailing giant Uber is reportedly aligning with drivers’ unions in several cities to slow robotaxi deployments and promote regulations requiring “hybrid networks” that combine autonomous vehicles with human drivers, according to the Financial Times.

The unholy alliance is taking shape in states and cities including New Jersey and Washington, DC, where Uber and organized labor are pushing back against the rapid expansion of autonomous taxi services.

In New Jersey, Uber lobbyists proposed requiring any platform offering robotaxi services to ensure that human drivers provide at least 85% of rides during a three-year pilot program. The ride-hailing company, led by CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, has also joined unions in opposing autonomous vehicle legislation in Washington, claiming that the proposed permitting regime could lock out smaller competitors and platforms such as Uber.

Uber is pitching its effort to slow the rollout of fully autonomous taxis amid mounting competitive pressure from Alphabet-owned Waymo and Tesla’s emerging Cybercab. Such regulations, enacted on a city-by-city basis, could eventually create significant obstacles for competing services from Waymo, Tesla, and others that operate without human drivers.

Mandating hybrid networks could preserve Uber’s existing dominance and protect its human-driver network while allowing only a limited share of autonomous vehicles. In other words, Uber’s newfound concern for labor may have less to do with protecting drivers than with protecting its market share.

The FT noted that Uber remains “behind its arch-rival Waymo” in autonomous driving technology, suggesting that hybrid-network mandates may be designed to protect its market share while the company advances its own robotaxi technology. It would be a great example of weaponizing regulation to slow the competition. 

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Before I get into today’s idea, let me remind readers that I believe there is a very real chance that the AI boom could be coming to an end later this year and into early next year.

I detailed my thoughts on why the AI boom could end in an article called “The Real AI Crash Will Start This Year” that I published two weeks ago. I supplemented this piece with another article last week called “8 Sharp Bear Cases You Must Read Today”, which explores almost all of the possible reasons I can think of to be bearish on the stock market today.

I suggest reading both of these pieces carefully and keeping in mind that today’s article is a very first look into a sector that may or may not ever catch on in the US and will likely be highly dependent on AI’s continued expansion as a catalyst to flourish.

Having said that, if you’re still bullish on the AI build out and the market at this point, there’s an emerging theme that may be under-noticed and worth a look.

The theme is geothermal energy, and specifically the possibility that next-generation geothermal becomes part of the solution to America’s rapidly growing AI power needs. AI power needs drove my nuclear thesis last year as nuclear stocks outperformed the market in 2025 and helped my 25 Stocks I’m Watching For 2025 beat the S&P by more than +50%.

And while I am still bullish on nuclear, as I wrote about at the beginning of this year, geothermal energy is now on my radar as well…not to replace nuclear, but to supplement it potentially. And more importantly, as a potential “story” theme heading into next year.

This thesis is still very early and speculative, and there is a very real chance it never develops into anything meaningful. I’m not screaming to go out and buy anything right now. But there are enough pieces starting to come together that I think it’s worth understanding the theme now and keeping an eye on it.

First, a little background. Geothermal is essentially power generated using heat stored beneath the Earth’s surface. In a conventional geothermal plant, developers drill into naturally occurring underground reservoirs of hot water or steam and use that heat to generate electricity. The technology itself isn’t new. The U.S. has been producing geothermal electricity for decades and has several gigawatts of generating capacity today, but despite that history, geothermal still represents less than 1% of U.S. electricity generation.

The biggest problem has always been geography. Traditional geothermal works best in places where you happen to have the right combination of underground heat, water and permeable rock relatively close together. That has historically restricted development to certain parts of the western U.S. and other geologically favorable areas around the world.

What has changed is the emergence of enhanced geothermal systems, or EGS. Rather than waiting for nature to provide the perfect underground reservoir, EGS attempts to engineer one. Developers drill deep into hot rock and use techniques borrowed heavily from the oil and gas industry, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic stimulation, to create pathways through which water can circulate, absorb heat and return to the surface. Think of it, very roughly, as applying some of the technologies that transformed U.S. shale production to geothermal energy.

None of this is easy. Drilling several kilometers underground is expensive, the geology can be unpredictable, and developers have to prove these reservoirs can maintain sufficient temperatures and flow rates for years. There are also questions around water loss, drilling costs, induced seismic activity and whether the economics ultimately work at commercial scale. It is entirely possible that some of these problems prove harder or more expensive to solve than proponents currently expect.

But if they can be solved, the potential is significant because enhanced geothermal could remove one of the biggest historical limitations on geothermal power: location. Instead of needing a naturally occurring geothermal reservoir, developers could potentially build plants across much larger portions of the country wherever sufficiently hot rock can be reached economically.

That is where this starts becoming particularly interesting in the context of AI. One of the biggest constraints facing the AI buildout increasingly isn’t just chips. It’s electricity. AI data centers require enormous amounts of reliable power, and developers need sources capable of operating essentially around the clock.

Geothermal has some attractive characteristics for that purpose because it’s renewable, which can appease the clean energy and climate change lot should it return after midterms in 2028, and unlike solar and wind, it doesn’t depend on whether the sun is shining or the wind is blowing.

If AI data centers continue proliferating across the U.S., the industry is going to need huge amounts of additional electricity. Utilities and technology companies are already looking at virtually every possible source of dependable generation, and geothermal could eventually become one piece of that puzzle. 

For more on what specifically caught my attention on geothermal energy, and the pure play stocks that I think would benefit if geothermal becomes popular, you can read my full analysis here.

President Trump took to Truth Social on Thursday to rage against US media coverage of the Iran war (not for the first time), following Treasury Scott Bessent giving similar scathing remarks earlier this week.

Trump particularly singled out recent and ongoing reports of US missile and interceptor shortages, which he has slammed as false. He called out the “treasonous SCUM” in the media for issuing supposedly inaccurate reports on “our Military Operation in Iran” – claiming that the US has “virtually unlimited amounts of Mid to High Grade Ammunition”.

But also notably, and in a seeming implicit contradiction, he said the USA is not at the moment “selling them to others” but is producing and stockpiling at “levels never seen before.” This is amid an ongoing scramble for Europe to find an avenue to transfer more Patriots to Ukraine, as Zelensky is essentially betting for more missiles.

Trump once again further blamed the prior Biden administration for handing “hundreds of Billions of Dollars” to Ukraine and NATO “free of charge” in connection with the war with Russia.

From think tanks to NY Times to Wall Street Journal to independent media, pundits, journalists and officials have been raising the alarm on the issue.

This also comes after Trump told journalists in the Oval Office on Monday that the “older stuff” can always be used, when he was pressed over whether the United States is running out of standoff munitions:

Q: Several military leaders have reportedly told Hegseth that a prolonged, large-scale operation in Iran weakens our ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the homeland. Have you heard that?

TRUMP: We’re very respected. Nobody else would be crazy enough to do it… We have unlimited amounts of… older stuff.

And then on Wednesday in formal remarks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blasted the media for its recent coverage. He went so far as to scold the media for being the best allies that the Iranians have. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has over the past months made similar remarks, invoking themes of ‘treason’.

“One of the best allies that the Iranians have on this is the media because the media immediately publishes all the lies that they say,” Bessent had proclaimed at the G20 meeting in Asheville. 

“Everyone in this audience and every news outlet should be ashamed for publishing that, taking a lying regime at face value,” Bessent added.

Bessent on Iran:

One of the best allies Iran has is the media.

The media immediately publishes all the lies that Iran says.

There are no mines in the strait. Two ships did not hit mines. pic.twitter.com/SdhyOOye1B

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 1, 2026

Bessent has given other statements this week advancing Bush-style “you are either with us or against us” talking points related to the Iran war.

The Iran war this week reached the six-month mark, after White House officials initially repeatedly sought to ‘assure’ Americans it would be a four to six week operation.

All the way back in May, Trump rebuked a well-known NY Times reporter for a line of questioning that the president framed as “treasonous” coverage of the “victory” accomplished by the United States.

“I had a total military victory. But the fake news, guys like you, write incorrectly. You’re a fake guy. We had a total military victory. I actually think it’s sort of treasonous what you write. You should be ashamed of yourself. I actually think it’s treason,” Trump had told David Sanger at the time aboard Air Force One.

Authored by Bill Bonner via DailyReckoning.com,

We begin this week’s perambulations with a stroll into the future.

So far…the Bubble in the US is broader than any in history. It has been inflating everything it touched for the last 30 years.

All bubbles pop, of course. How they pop is the confusing whirlwind we enter today.

But don’t worry. Even in the worst crash, real wealth doesn’t disappear, it just changes hands. When the stock market goes down, those with stocks have less paper wealth…and less of a claim on real wealth. They are ‘poorer.’ That leaves those without stocks relatively richer. They have a bigger claim on the real goods and services the economy produces.

The feds and their elite cronies have a good racket going…diddling markets so as to shift more and more wealth away from the public and towards themselves. They own most of the capital assets…and they control the US budget. Pressuring interest rates lower, and backing up the stock market with bailouts and ‘put’ options…they’ve gotten richer and richer. As we saw last week, at today’s prices the stockholding class can theoretically buy twice the GDP…and have $10 trillion left over.

It wasn’t capitalism that made them so rich; it was a corrupt money system. And if the dogs of capitalism were unleashed, they’d have their fake money fortunes for dinner. Interest rates would be set by honest savers and borrowers — not by Fed policy decisions. Prices would be determined by buyers and sellers; the budget would be balanced; the debt would be cleaned up; the troops would come home; inflation would disappear; and the Baltimore O’s would win the World Series.

But of course, we’re dreaming.

Sticking to the real world…

Our high confidence guess is that the bubble will deflate. Everything will fall in price. Then, the feds will panic. They will do ‘whatever it takes’ to stop markets from doing their work — with more fake money, lower interest rates, yield curve control, quantitative easing. And probably some tricks we haven’t heard of yet.

After an initial sell-off, gold will go up. It will sniff out what is coming — more inflation. Other real asset prices too — from hot dogs to hotels — will get a whiff of the coming price hikes. Consumer prices will rise as ‘inflation expectations’ increase.

The feds really only have one tool — fake money. In a crisis, they will produce more of it…a lot more. And, in addition to the quantity of money coming into the economy, there’s another key inflation variable: the velocity of money. A dollar spent two times in a year is counted twice.

When people think the feds are going to print money, the dollar becomes a hot potato. They aim to get rid of it as soon as possible. Sales go up in the short run. In the longer run, the economy is destroyed.

And here’s an important addendum. We say ‘inflate or die.’ But those are just policy choices. In the long run, you can inflate all you want. The bubble will still die — a later, more gruesome death.

In the fight between markets on one side…and politicians, grifters, fixers and central planners on the other…markets always win, eventually. They win by deflation.

Even in an inflationary blow off — with prices soaring — real prices fall. Consumer prices rise, in nominal currency. But gold — real money — typically rises even more…so that in gold terms, real things actually become cheaper. Prices deflate in real terms.

Observers in Germany’s record-setting hyperinflation remarked that foreigners were able to use dollars — then, backed by gold — to buy things at absurdly low prices. By November, 1923, a dollar was equal to 4.2 trillion marks. This made American visitors trillionaires (in marks) allowing them to buy whole houses for the price of a magazine subscription. In real terms, prices had deflated down to almost nothing.

We witnessed it, ourselves, in Argentina. In pesos, consumer prices more than doubled every twelve months…but dollars (even with a dodgy dollar) made them cheaper than ever. We would go to a restaurant, for example, and feel guilty about paying so little for such a good meal.

The same phenomenon is already taking place in America, too. Housing has gotten much more expensive, right? And the stock market is much higher too, right? But looked at in terms of gold, stocks are less than half of what they were worth in 1999…and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, expressed in gold, shows house prices down about 80% over the last quarter century.

The Case Shiller Home Price Index, in gold terms, has fallen around 80% in the last 25 years.

In real terms, all bubbles deflate…but you need real money to see it.

The Netherlands’ central bank transferred nearly 90 metric tons of gold bars from the United States and Canada to Britain amid growing concerns of “increasing geopolitical unrest,” according to CNBC.

“With this relocation, we have improved the tradability of our gold reserves. We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness,” DNB Governor Olaf Sleijpen said of the development.

Roughly 25% of the gold reserves stored in New York and Ottawa were moved to London over the summer.

CNBC reports:

The transferred gold is now stored with the Bank of England because gold stored there must meet international trade standards and is recognized as “the world’s most easily tradable gold,” DNB said, adding that the move strengthens its “crisis preparedness.”

By contrast, DNB said the gold bars held in the U.S. and Canada could not be utilized as quickly and directly in a crisis situation.

The bank holds 30.8% of its 612.4 tons of gold reserves at its cash center in Zeist, southeast of Amsterdam.

“Keeping a larger share of the gold reserves in London strengthens the function of gold as an anchor of trust,” the Dutch central bank said.

Preparations to move the gold were not disclosed until the process was completed because it was a matter of vital public interest, Finance Minister Eelco Heinen said in a statement.

The Dutch central bank is not the first major European institution to shift gold out of the U.S. in recent years.

In 2025, France’s central bank pulled 129 metric tons of gold, then valued at $15 billion, from U.S. vaults and replaced it with newer, high-quality bullion held in Paris. At the time, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, then-governor of the Banque de France, claimed that the move was not politically motivated.

“The residual portion of the stock, amounting to 129 tonnes or 5% of the total, which was held in New York, did not meet this standard. Rather than embarking on a lengthy and risky logistical operation, the simplest solution was to sell this gold and then buy back gold of the highest standard in Europe,” the French central banker said in a statement.

“The sale of these US gold bars generated an exceptional capital gain of EUR 11 billion in 2025. This capital gain was duly recorded in the Banque de France’s accounts and therefore belongs, along with the Bank’s very sound net equity (EUR 283 billion), to all French citizens. France’s gold reserves stand at 2,437 tonnes and will remain unchanged.”

Meanwhile, advocacy groups in other major EU countries have voiced similar ambitions. Michael Jager, who heads the European Taxpayers Association, has pushed for Germany to bring its gold home, saying “Trump is unpredictable” and that the metal was “no longer safe” in the U.S., according to the New York Post.

The sums involved are substantial.

The Bundesbank holds roughly 3,350 metric tons of gold, of which 1,236 tons, roughly 37%, sit in New York.

However, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has dismissed the notion that the New York holdings are at risk.

“I have no doubt that the gold is safely stored at the Federal Reserve in New York,” he said in an interview with WELT earlier this year.

“Eventually, the US would hurt itself most if it were to call that legal status into question in any way and thereby put the confidence of financial markets at risk.”

The recent acceleration in geographical shifts of the location of central banks’ precious metal hordes has not been lost on Goldman Sachs who recently noted that “The location of central bank’s gold holdings appears increasingly top of mind for reserve managers.”

In an excellent note from Lina Thomas (available here in full for pro subs), she begins by noting that “the location of central bank’s gold holdings appears increasingly top of mind for reserve managers.”

The Bank of England remains the most popular custodian (preferred by 57% of reserve managers in the World Gold Council survey), with the New York Fed also important, because gold there sits in the main settlement networks and can be used for swaps, leasing, and immediate market access.

The trade-off is political risk – freezing or restricted access, as with Venezuela’s gold at the BoE in 2018.

Thomas also notes that full repatriation is not the default solution: domestic vaults are costly for smaller banks and swap one set of risks for another.

Instead, many banks are spreading holdings across jurisdictions (BoE, NY Fed, BIS, Banque de France, and increasingly China) to keep liquidity while reducing single-jurisdiction exposure.

However, amid all this location-shifting, it remains clear that central banks are anxiously holding on to (if not adding to) their gold hordes and Goldman Sachs’ NowCast puts June central-bank buying at 57 tonnes (about 100 tonnes a month on a 3-month seasonally adjusted basis, versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes), with China the largest identifiable buyer.

A 32-tonne inflow of monetary gold into London looks more like a custody transfer than sales, given a 98-tonne rise in foreign official holdings at the BoE.

With all that said, Goldman maintains its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, assuming roughly 50 tonnes a month of official buying in 2026 and 40 tonnes in 2027, driven by EM reserve diversification after the 2022 freeze of Russia’s assets.

Gold has already rebounded about 10% from its mid-July low back above $4,400 today (near the 200DMA) as investor demand (ETFs, COMEX positioning, and options) recovered once markets scaled back Fed-hike expectations.

Professional subscribers can read Goldman’s full “Precious Comment: Gold and Central Banks: Storage Dilemma; Buying Trend Picks Up” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Following the mixed/weak Manufacturing PMI survey data earlier in the week, today’s Services PMIs were expected to be just as mixed with S&P Global higher and ISM flat.

• S&P Global Services PMI for August rose from 54.6 to 56.5 (below the preliminary 56.8 but still up bigly) – the highest since Dec 2024

• ISM Services PMI for August rose from 54.1 to 55.4 (better than the 54.1 exp) – the highest since Feb 2026

These improvements come as hard data languishes…

The S&P Global US Composite PMI recorded 56.0 in August, up from 54.5 in July and pushed the index to a 52-month high. A stronger rise in services activity coincided with sustained, albeit slower growth in manufacturing. This puts the US economy ahead of the rest of the world based on survey data…

“Business activity growth across the private sector accelerated in August, marking a clear shift in gear for the US economy,” said Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Survey data now point to GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the third quarter, up solidly from the meagre 1.5% recorded in the previous quarter…

Alongside a renewed improvement in new business intakes, growth appears likely to continue at least in the near term.

“There was also a welcome acceleration in jobs growth during August, with employers becoming more confident across both the manufacturing and service sectors.

Job creation was commonly linked to efforts to keep pace with demand requirements, but also to prepare for future growth as concerns regarding the conflict in the Middle East started to fade.”

That said, Bhatti points out that “supply delays remained elevated, notably for manufacturers, while aggregate price pressures also stayed above their historical average.“

Growth momentum appears to have shifted from manufacturing to services, with the latter seeing the pace of expansion surge to the highest since the end of 2024.

“Manufacturing growth, meanwhile, was unchanged as both output and new orders rose at weaker rates.”

Is strong growth and elevated prices enough to trigger Warsh to pull the trigger in two weeks? Waller’s comments this morning dampened the market’s enthusiasm for a hike.

Authored by Ed Dowd via ‘Beyond the Narrative’ substack,

On August 19th the Treasury announced it would increase the size of its nominal long-end liquidity support buybacks beginning September 9. The long end yields declined on the headline. Cue the usual chorus of X hot takes: stealth QE, yield-curve control lite, money printing etc.

The reality is much less bombastic…it is mostly a jawboning exercise.

The Treasury Is Not the Fed…The Treasury Cannot Create Money

Buybacks of this type are a recycling operation. You issue more bills and notes on the front end and you take some longer paper off the street. You can tidy up liquidity in off-the-run issues. You can send a signal that you would prefer the 30-year not print a fresh multi-decade highs on a Tuesday. What you cannot do is print reserves, expand the monetary base, or run a proper balance sheet policy the way the Federal Reserve can. Confusing the two is how people talk themselves into thinking a few billion of “liquidity support” is 2020 all over again.

The size tells the story. Coupon supply at the long end is still large. Doubling a buyback program that was already small relative to annual issuance is, at best, a band-aid. Markets gave it a day. Then they remembered the calendar. The signal from Bessent is not nothing but it is not as big as it seems in the broader picture.

Who is actually in charge of the long end of the yield curve? It is not the Fed. It is not Scott Bessent’s operations desk. It is priced by growth expectations and inflation expectations or said differently the boom/bust cycle.

Who is in charge of that? The laws of nature and God.

Bessent Will Get Lower Yields…He Won’t Like Why

Bessent will get lower long end yields eventually, however he won’t like the reasons why. That is not a shot at the man. It is a description of the cycle. You can rearrange the maturity mix. You can jawbone fiscal consolidation.

You can tell reporters that yields do not reflect fundamentals. None of that overrides a growth scare once the growth scare arrives. That reality is not what Bessent or Trump want to manifest especially before the midterm elections.

Look at China if you want the preview: bond yields collapsing because the economy is in a disinflationary grind, not because Beijing discovered a clever buyback program.

Three Pillars of Risk: Growth Scare Ahead

At Phinance Technologies we put our US economic outlook on paper in January. An Emerging slowdown with yields set to drop starting in 2026. A deflationary scare is on the horizon. The risks outlined below are not exotic.

They are the white swans sitting on the lawn.

• Housing: Roughly 20% of GDP. Forty percent of CPI when you let the shelter component speak. Home prices still too high…call it 30% on our work. New home data has been ugly for months. Builders talking about persistent headwinds with high rates, affordability and cautious buyers. The border closing removed a bid that was quietly holding up rents and prices in a lot of metros. That floor is unwinding slowly, which is how housing always dies…not a bang…a rollover. Southeast first, then the map fills in. A frozen housing market is a frozen chunk of the real economy whether the S&P is making a high or not.

• The AI bubble peaking: In my post on July 23rd I outlined that the AI Capex party was approaching closing time. First the private credit market is undergoing flow issues and credit stress making financing more expensive. Since that post Nvidia confirmed those issues on their recent earnings call by disclosing that their balance sheet exploded with extra commitments to suppliers and sweeter payment terms to their customers. They want to become a bank to their customers much like Lucent did in the dotcom days, which did not end well for Lucent. Second Enterprise demand is cracking with ROI skepticism and token pricing backlash. Third power constraints are hitting hard with the grid needing massive additional supply that won’t be ready in time for the proposed amount of datacenter projects announced. Finally there is open-source pricing pressure as many users are embracing cheaper models. They call them capex cycles for a reason. The order book always gets inflated near the top, credit is always the disciplinarian.

• China entering acute phase of crisis: Factory of the world with fixed-asset investment falling, construction in contraction, real estate still working off a multi-year start collapse, and demographics that do not bottom until 2032. Contagion does not need a press conference. It eventually shows up in Asian supply chains, commodity demand, and the global credit impulse decelerating.

Bottom Line

Put those three looming risks on the table at the same time and Bessent will get lower long-end US yields. This is currently not consensus thinking but as the risks manifest themselves and the business cycle exerts its natural downturn the narrative will quickly change. The US long bond is the scoreboard and we believe soon it will begin to respond to these headwinds as we roll through the rest of the year and into the next. In hindsight the current Bessent intervention will be seen as ironic.

The Treasury is not the Fed. The Fed is not the long end. The long end is the cycle.

The signs are not hiding. They are just inconvenient for the people who need the narratives to keep the party going.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks on US bases and the regional countries hosting them actually continued overnight into Thursday, despite CENTCOM having on Wednesday announced the cessation of the US bombing operation.

This week’s round of US attacks saw six Iranian navy personnel killed, Tasnim is reporting, with Iran’s Health Ministry stating that 18 Iranians were killed and over 140 wounded since August 30. The ministry also indicates most of the casualties were women and children, especially due to the reported US bombing of a wedding in the coastal town of Kuhestak along the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran.  

Many of the victims’ funerals have commenced on Thursday, regional media reports. The NY Times and other Western media have been seeking to verify details amid ongoing investigations. “Dozens of guests, according to a witness and accounts in local news media, had already arrived at the Malahi family’s home and surrounding buildings in the southern city of Kuhestak to celebrate a young bride and groom,” NYT writes.

“Around 9:30 p.m. on Tuesday, the wedding was struck by a bomb that, according to a weapons expert and a visual analysis by The New York Times, had been released by American forces as they carried out intense attacks in southern Iran,” the report continues. “At least five wedding guests were killed, including a 6-year-old boy, and at least 67 other people were wounded, according to Iran’s Red Crescent Society, a humanitarian aid group.”

President Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have meanwhile expressed dismay over why the Iranians don’t ‘rise up’ – but rarely do populations under assault want to openly side with the country attacking them and bombing weddings, hospitals, and girls schools. This is certainly not a strategy for ‘winning over’ the population.

As for the latest military action, while Iran launched ballistic missiles and/or drones on Bahrain and Jordan on Wednesday as part of the initial salvo, the Kuwaiti government is confirming that its territory has alco come under attack Thursday:

Sirens sounded in Kuwait early Thursday, where air defenses intercepted missile and drones during a “blatant Iranian aggression,” the Ministry of Defense said on X.

Kuwait’s foreign ministry promptly condemned this the latest attack that began before dawn – slamming the flagrant violation of its sovereignty and a direct threat to its security.

“The continuation of these brazen assaults reflects a hostile approach and constitutes a dangerous escalation that threatens the security and stability of the region,” the ministry state. It added that “the attacks represented a systematic undermining of diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation and calm” – and said it reserves the right to respond.

Crucially, Tehran is also saying Thursday that it targeted UAE, in a rarity – though it’s unclear if there have been any impacts, or the nature of the attack wave. According to a Tasnim press release of the Iranian Army statement [machine translated]:

• In retaliation for the blood of innocent people and the brave men of the armed forces, early this morning the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Army struck the satellite communications systems, equipment storage facilities, and fighter aircraft hangars of the U.S. military at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait with missiles and attack drones.
• These attacks caused damage to the communications systems and fighter aircraft hangars.
• Also, as part of this powerful operation, the troop deployment areas and radar systems of the U.S. military at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE came under attack by missiles and drones launched by the Army.
• Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base plays a central role in the logistics and support of the U.S. military in West Asia and has a major role in the country’s aerial and surveillance operations.
• Al Minhad Air Base is also considered one of the important centers for the logistical support and air transportation of foreign forces.
• The response of the brave men of the Army to any attack by the terrorist U.S. military will be harsh…

UAE Strongly Condemns Hostile Iranian Attack on Kuwait, but has not initially confirmed if its own territory was hit as well

الإمارات تُدين بشدة الهجوم الإيراني العدواني على الكويت

UAE Strongly Condemns Hostile Iranian Attack on Kuwait pic.twitter.com/YWLxYjUEoe

— MoFA وزارة الخارجية (@mofauae) September 3, 2026

As for the Trump administration’s moves from here, or the ‘what’s next?’ – Bloomberg on Thursday states the obvious (which is a headline that might as well have been on repeat throughout the whole summer): ‘We Are Stalled’: US-Iran Conflict Stuck With No End in Sight. The below headline also hints at what could be a conflict lull ahead of midterms, now that each side perhaps ‘escalated to de-escalate’ this week…

Is Trump ending Iran war? ‘Operation Fury’ naming ends, Hegseth extends troop plan to 2027 as prez appears tired ahead of midterms

Also, Goldman Sachs Delta One Desk offers the following analysis and market angle [emphasis zh]:

The most important headline overnight may be the WSJ report that “Privately, Trump is having discussions with senior aides about whether to declare the Iran war over, U.S. officials said, noting Trump has said he favors the idea.”  Trump said, “I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing.” That feels like US reflexivity becoming explicit. Oil >$90, product markets are tight, gasoline matters politically and interceptor inventories are reportedly stretched. My bias remain that this is an  escalate to de-escalate… that on the other side of Labor day there might be a different approach. Perhaps optimistically,  that makes me think we are closer to the high end than the low end of the near term energy range.

On the other side of the conflict, the Iranians have shown a keen understanding of how energy markets and the growing unpopularity of the war among the American public factor into the November midterms.

He can declare it whatever he wants, but if American warships are still blockading Iranian ports and escorting oil tankers through Hormuz then, um, it’s not actually over https://t.co/1b42qkONOb

— Gregg Carlstrom (@glcarlstrom) September 3, 2026

Al Jazeera highlights the view from Tehran, offering the analysis of Sultan Barakat, Professor of Public Policy at Hamad bin Khalifa University in Qatar:

“I think Iran is just holding their breath to see what happens with the midterm elections in the United States,” Barakat told Al Jazeera. “If that election goes against what Trump wishes, then you could see the president being impeached. I think the Democrats will probably ask for a halt on the war and go back to negotiation.”

While, “impeached” is a highly unlikely scenario and a bit strong in this context, Barakat pointed out that this is “major gambling on the Iranian side,” since “Trump has nothing to lose now. He can actually take actions that were not anticipated in the past, or maybe were far-fetched in the past.” Trump himself on Wednesday brushed off midterm election concerns:

Trump on Iran:

I’m not affected by the election. I’m not running. My party is running.

I think my party respects the fact that we are not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon. pic.twitter.com/jF4rYkvupq

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 2, 2026

Prof. Barakat continued by saying “the ultimate losers, really, are still the Gulf States” now “past six months” into the economic strain, and yet still with no unified effort or momentum “to talk directly to the Iranians to come with a solution to the current problem.”

More Latest Developments

…via Newsquawk

• US President Trump said regarding Iran that the US is winning that one very big and controls the Hormuz Strait.
• US Secretary of State Rubio instructed all US embassies around the world earlier this week to send an official diplomatic demarche about Operation Economic Outcast to the most senior level of their host governments, according to Axios citing US officials.
• US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker said Iran is a bankrupt country and will not be able to pay anyone in its military, civil service or government, nor subsidise its society. He stated the people of Iran will not be happy with the current state of affairs and should blame their government and regime, adding that they should ask for change and a different way forward.
• US Envoy Witkoff met last weekend with the UAE’s national security adviser to discuss next steps on Iran, according to Axios. The report added that “One of the officials said a special message was sent to U.S. diplomatic posts in Abu Dhabi, Muscat, Hong Kong, Doha, London, Berlin and several Central Asian capitals. The missive instructed them to demand that their host governments shut down all branches of Iran’s Melli and Saderat banks that are affiliated with the IRGC.”
• Iran reportedly threatened the US with a large-scale attack if Israel launches an attack on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, Reuters reported citing sources.
• Iranian Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission said the Strait of Hormuz cannot be opened without Iran’s will, IRIB reported.
• Kuwait Army said it was repelling missile and hostile drone attacks, while local news outlets were attributing the attacks to Iranian aggression and Arab sources said the US base in Kuwait was hit by a strike with smoke reported.
• A senior Yemeni official said Yemen’s armed forces are conducting new military drills in the Red Sea to prepare for a possible confrontation with Israel and the US, IRNA reported.
• Military sources said clashes broke out between Yemeni government forces and Houthis in the Al-Kadha area west of Taizz, Yemen.
• Geopolitics: Ukraine
• Russian President Putin said that Russia and Ukraine should agree first and noted that there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement. Putin added that contacts with the US continue, adding that Russia is in favour of restoration of relations with the US. He said US President Trump is ready for positive and constructive works and that there are contacts with Ukraine.
• Russian President Putin said attacks on three oil refineries have been repelled, adding that Russia must respond in kind.
• US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker said Russia’s aggressive actions, invasion of Ukraine and prior annexation of Crimea lead the US to believe that Russia can be unpredictable and could be willing to take action against a NATO country. Furthermore, he said recent statements by Russian President Putin do not leave him optimistic, while he added that Ukraine needs to be able to defend itself as long as it takes until the war can be brought to an end.

Nvidia has agreed to buy AI startup Hugging Face for roughly $12.93 billion, putting the world’s most important open-model hub under the same roof as the most dominant AI chip company on the planet, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

CEO Jensen Huang announced the deal on Thursday, a day after NVIDIA filed that it had signed a definitive agreement. The transaction includes about $11.9 billion for Hugging Face stockholders and an equity retention package of up to $1 billion for employees who join NVIDIA. Closing is expected in the first half of 2027, pending regulatory approvals.

Huang said NVIDIA will “scale Hugging Face’s platform, strengthen its infrastructure and expand access to AI for developers and institutions worldwide.” Hugging Face, he added, “will remain an open platform for the entire AI ecosystem,” and NVIDIA compute will not be required to build or deploy on it.

Hugging Face – where people can find, publish, fine-tune, and deploy open-weight models, has over 18 million developers, researchers, and creators who have shared over 3 million models, 500,000 datasets, and one million applications. Over 200,000 companies use the platform to discover, evaluate, customize, and deploy AI, according to AIM. 

Founded in 2016 in New York by French co-founders Clément Delangue, Julien Chaumond, and Thomas Wolf, it last raised a $235 million Series D in 2023 at a $4.5 billion valuation. NVIDIA was already an investor, alongside Google, Amazon, Salesforce, AMD, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm.

Why NVIDIA wanted it

The deal is about the distribution layer. NVIDIA already sells the GPUs most labs use to train and run models. Hugging Face is where those models live, get versioned, and get downloaded. Whoever owns that junction influences which models get used and, downstream, which hardware they run on.

That matters more as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others design their own accelerators to reduce reliance on NVIDIA. Open models still need someone else’s chips. Hugging Face is where a large share of that demand originates.

Hugging Face had previously kept NVIDIA at arm’s length. Late last year it rejected a $500 million NVIDIA investment that would have valued the company at $7 billion, saying it did not want a single dominant investor that could sway decisions. Delangue has argued that concentration of power is the biggest risk in AI. This time he framed NVIDIA as a partner that would keep the platform “open, independent and compute-agnostic,” with a goal of making open source “the default way to build AI” and empowering “100 million AI builders to own their intelligence rather than rent it.”