Brent crude futures jumped a little more than 4% to nearly $88 a barrel, putting the crude oil benchmark on track for its biggest weekly gain since April. That move followed an Axios report that said the Trump administration had notified Israel it was deploying additional aerial assets to the region, signaling the US military could expand strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend.

Financial Times spoke with energy traders at the end of the week who warned that slowing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a more severe supply crunch than the first round of the US-Iran war because emergency reserves and stockpiles around the world that cushioned the earlier disruption have been mostly depleted.

“We’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” said one trader. “All of that’s now gone.

Related:

• Cushing Remains At ‘Tank Bottoms’

Bloomberg noted:

Fuel markets strengthened again, with the ICE gasoil crack closing at the highest on record and the Nymex heating oil crack the strongest since March. More narrow Brent put spreads around the low $70s traded in sizable numbers.

Earlier today, the International Energy Agency revealed that member countries released three-quarters of the planned 400 million-barrel emergency reserves announced in March.  

Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, pointed out that heading into the US-Iran war, the global oil market had around 400 million barrels of excess inventories, not including strategic reserves controlled by governments.

“Now we have close to nothing … and market complacency around Hormuz flows is being severely tested,” Sen warned.

Strait crossings hit three week low

Strait of Hormuz traffic continued to weaken on 16 July, with confirmed crossings falling to eight, the lowest level in three weeks. Seven of the eight transits used the Iranian route, highlighting a growing concentration of movements through… pic.twitter.com/YEA63ZGkVJ

— Kpler (@Kpler) July 17, 2026

UBS analyst Henri Patricot wrote in the daily “Hormuz tracker” note that further Hormuz escalation has occurred, Gulf tanker crossings remain limited, and there is a sharp pullback in Gulf loadings:

Further escalation

The conflict in the Middle East is escalating further as Iran reportedly targeted power plants and desalinisation plants in Kuwait. Previous strikes had focused on US military targets. These followed US strikes on bridges and an airport in Iran.

Limited Gulf tanker crossings

Increased attacks continue to weigh heavily on flows via Hormuz. The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) show that oil and gas tanker crossings fell to one, with only one product tanker entering the Gulf (Figure 1).

July-to-date crossings have averaged 10, down from the mid-to-high teens recorded in late June and early July, and remain well below the c.50 level seen in February. Oil on water in the Gulf is ticking up again, up ~5Mb in recent days (Figure 10).

The absence of outbound oil and gas flows takes the July average down to 5.4Mboe/d, compared with 3.7Mboe/d in June and 1.3Mboe/d in May (Figure 4).

Capacity entering the Gulf fell to 0.7Mboe/d and has averaged 5.2Mboe/d month to date (Figure 5).

Meanwhile, flows via the Bab al Mandeb Strait have not been disrupted so far and increased further to 9.7Mb/d yesterday, above the July-to-date average of 6.7Mb/d.

A sharp pullback in Gulf loading

Gulf crude loadings ex-Iran fell sharply to 1.0Mb/d yesterday from 6.0Mb/d on Wednesday, with the past-week average at 3.2Mb/d vs 5.1Mb/d in July and 3.4Mb/d in June. Iranian loadings rose to 5.0Mb/d yesterday, lifting the July average to 1.5Mb/d, still below the typical 1.7-1.8Mb/d range, but above June’s 0.8Mb/d (Figure 9).

Crude loadings at ports outside the Strait (Yanbu in Saudi Arabia and Fujairah in the UAE) eased following a sharp rebound, falling to 3.6Mb/d yesterday below the July-to-date average of 5.9Mb/d and June’s 6.9Mb/d. Yanbu declined to 2.7Mb/d, below the month-to-date level of 4.2Mb/d and June’s 4.8Mb/d. Product loadings inside the Gulf remain close to May-June levels (Figure 15).

The normalization pathway of tanker flows appears to have been disrupted as the US and Iran become locked in an escalation spiral, with neither side willing to back down. Any sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has now been postponed.

With or without Tehran’s cooperation, US-allied Gulf countries are in the beginning innings of what we’ve described as a “great energy rewiring” to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint.

Latest:

• Great Rewiring: US Supports Iraq-Syria Oil Pipeline To Erode Tehran’s Hormuz Leverage
• Dubai’s New East Coast Port Signals The Beginning Of End For Iran’s Hormuz Leverage
• “Zero Hormuz Dependency”: UAE Races To Rewire Energy Flows, Bypassing Chokepoint Chaos
• Hormuz Bypasses Maxed Out: Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Record 7 MMb/d, As UAE Fujairah Crude Loadings Reach Capacity

“Ultimately, the market was pricing an optimistic flow trajectory that now is clearly not on the table, at least . . . not until we get another round of diplomacy,” Natixis Bank analyst Joel Hancock wrote in a note.

Summary

• CENTCOM Says US Forces Launch New Strike On Iran
• State Dept. Issues Worldwide Warning 
• CENTCOM says two US troops killed in Iranian attack on Jordan base.
• Iran formally suspends MoU with the US, declaring agreement is over & commitments will no longer be fulfilled.
• Fighting escalates into seventh straight day of heavy bombings.
• Iran reportedly struck a US base in Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months.
• US strikes disrupt southern Iran’s telecom network, knocking out 116 communication towers amid new infrastructure war.
• Iran pounds Kuwait’s energy infrastructure, damaging power & desalination facilities.

*  *  *

CENTCOM Says US Forces Launch New Strike On Iran 

CENTCOM said US forces struck Iranian missile and radar systems stationed along the Strait of Hormuz, further dismantling Tehran’s surveillance and strike capabilities while eroding its ability to control the maritime chokepoint.

“Today at 6 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began launching new airstrikes against Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction,” CENTCOM wrote on X. 

CENTCOM added, “The strikes are designed to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and swiftly punish Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces who launched attacks against American service members in Jordan last night.” 

Today at 6 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began launching new airstrikes against Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are designed to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and swiftly punish Islamic Revolutionary Guard…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 18, 2026

State Department Issues “Worldwide Caution” 

Will tensions ease before the NY futures open on Sunday evening?  

Americans Killed by Iranian Missiles on Jordan

Footage has been widely circulating over the past half-day showing massive Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Jordan. Iran said it targeted a US base there, and took out various aerial and radar assets, and caused casualties among American troops.

But the Pentagon has been radio silent on the extent of potential damage, until now: US officials are reporting that two American service members were killed in the overnight Iranian attack. According to emerging details in Axios:

Two U.S. service members were killed and more wounded in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on an airbase in Jordan on Saturday, military officials said.

This is the first time U.S. troops have been killed since the fighting resumed two weeks ago. The incident raises the number of U.S. service members killed in the war to 16.

On Saturday at least two Iranian ballistic missiles hit the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts U.S. troops and fighter jets.

CENTCOM posted to X, officially confirming the news: “On July 17, two U.S. service members in Jordan were killed in action as U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and partner forces defended against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. Additionally, one service member is currently missing in action.”

Two Iranian medium-range ballistic missile impacts were reported at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan earlier tonight. pic.twitter.com/NLgLeghrs7

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 18, 2026

The statement has noted additional injuries: “Four American service members were medically evacuated to Jordanian hospitals. They have since been discharged. Other personnel who were evaluated for minor injuries have returned to duty,” CENTCOM said.

Iran Formally Suspends MoU

It is now “official”: the Iranians have declared that the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States is dead. Tasnim is reporting Saturday that Iran will no longer fulfill its MoU obligations amid alleged repeat US violations. The past weeks have seen each side hurl warnings and threats to pull out, while attaching conditions that must be fulfilled.

But after what is now a full week of renewed fighting, it has been effectively torn up, with negotiations no longer happening. Al Jazeera is citing a top Iran official’s precise statement on suspending the MoU in the following:

Previously, we have seen again and again Iranian officials accusing the US of violating the MoU and also putting some conditions if the aggression continues.

What we’re seeing is Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, who is also head of the Iranian technical negotiating team, saying that in practice, the US has violated all the commitments and suspended the MoU entirely.

“We also likewise have suspended all of our commitments as a result; we are no longer implementing those commitments,” he added.

So, officially, this is the first time the Iranians are saying the MoU is over and they’re not going to implement any clause.

Given President Trump has apparently just ordered dozens more aerial refueling planes to the region, the conflict looks to continue going up the escalation ladder for at least the next week or longer. Each side will seek to impose more economic and military pain, while waiting for the other to blink. Battle of narratives over damage and retaliation:

🇮🇷🇯🇴⚡️– Insane footage of Iranian ballistic missiles striking Jordanian air bases despite a large number of interceptors in the air.

Despite clear footage of impacts they still deny it and lie that all of them were intercepted. pic.twitter.com/Es8hw7TCXJ

— MonitorX (@MonitorX99800) July 18, 2026

Saudi Base Attacked for First Time in 4 Months

Saudi Arabia has come under attack by Iranian missiles in the last 24 hours, the kingdom is confirming on Saturday, in a major escalation given that this is a first since near the start of the war several months ago. According to Reuters:

The Saudi civil defense early on Saturday issued two early warnings for Al-Kharj city and Yanbu to be alert to “potential danger,” but it later says the danger has passed in both areas, without providing details on the danger that triggered the warnings.

A US official tells the Axios news site that Iran targeted an American military base in Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile, the first time that the Islamic Republic has directly attacked the kingdom in four months.

Locations in Jordan and even Syria have also been hit in recent salvos, but the US military has downplayed these attacks – and there’s a battle of narratives over just how destructive these have been amid the fog of war.

Kuwait also reeling from stepped-up attacks…

⚡️ 🎦Unprecedented crowd at Kuwait Airport for departure from the country pic.twitter.com/Db5IeZsmDg

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) July 18, 2026

116 Telecoms Towers In Southern Iran Taken Out

As we featured earlier, Iranian communications and even the supply of drinking water have been severely impacted in some places of southern Iran, amid continuing US airstrikes on civic and national infrastructure, amid the seventh consecutive day of war. “Hormozgan’s chief of communications and information technology says the US’s overnight attacks disrupted telecommunications in Bandar Abbas and Hajiabad, in the northern part of the province,” Al Jazeera reports

Authorities there have tallied at least 116 telecommunication towers which were taken out of service due to the US onslaught. This has resulted in outages and disruptions of fixed-line, mobile, and internet services, per Tasnim news agency.

This suggests the US is returning to a strategy which seeks to create destabilization within, targeting the ability of the public to communicate and access information, returning the situation to the early weeks of the war, which saw Tehran authorities themselves curb internet and some telecoms access for the citizenry.

Kuwait Power & Desalination Plant Hit

Kuwait was bombarded overnight in one of the fiercest Iranian retaliatory strikes since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, with missiles and one-way drones targeting power infrastructure and other critical energy assets.

Local outlet Kuwait News Agency reports an unspecified site of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation suffered “significant material losses” as the week-long flare-up in Gulf tensions has derailed any near-term normalization of tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

There was a report that the Al-Subiya power station was struck. This marks the second attack on Kuwaiti power infrastructure in just days, after a transformer at the Zour South electricity and desalination complex was hit on Friday.

Authorities disconnected several power-generating units as a precaution and urged residents to conserve electricity. A Kuwaiti army base was also struck during the latest escalation, injuring several personnel.

Second Iranian strike in two days hit a Kuwaiti power/desalination plant, sparking a fire.

A similar plant was hit yesterday.

Strikes are part of Iran’s ongoing campaign against US military sites in Kuwait (Ali Al Salem base and others).

Kuwait relies on desalination for ~90%… pic.twitter.com/EyTPOwTIsM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 18, 2026

Infrastructure War in Full Swing

On March 2, we warned: 

• Airports, Data Centers, Skyscrapers, & Power Plants: Are Desalination Plants Next Targets In U.S.-Iran War

Bahrain and Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. The overnight barrage followed a seventh consecutive night of US strikes targeting Iranian surveillance sites, weapons storage, logistics infrastructure and maritime offensive capabilities as the Department of War seeks to erode Tehran’s leverage on the Hormuz waterway.

As of late Friday, the previous US-Iran wrap stated:

• Surge in more large US refueling planes headed to Mideast, signaling likely expansion of strikes on Iran.
• US attacks hit Iranian energy and transport infrastructure.
• Iran threatens stronger retaliation and claims strike on US base in Qatar – and deepens attacks to include US outposts in Jordan, Syria.
• Iran urges power conservation; Hormuz shipping traffic declines further.
• Oil prices rise to session highs on fears of broader regional conflict.

Brent chart

The latest Hormuz tanker transit data via Bloomberg shows that activity at the maritime chokepoint has all but ceased. This data is based on ships activating their transponders and doesn’t account for ships that ‘go dark’…

Overnight headlines

…courtesy of Bloomberg:

US-Iran Escalation

• The US launched its seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran on Friday at 3 p.m. ET, aimed at degrading Iran’s military capabilities, including hitting bridges, energy infrastructure, and a port facility in southern Iran, according to Iranian state media.
• The conflict has intensified beyond military targets, with the US striking six road bridges and reports of attacks near Bushehr’s nuclear power plant and the province of Lorestan, raising fears of a return to full-scale war.
• The hostilities were triggered by an Iranian drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, just days after the US and Iran signed a preliminary ceasefire deal, setting off a chain of escalating attacks.
• Iran has threatened a “full-scale offensive” in response to US strikes, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining virtually closed as of Saturday.

Iran Attacks Kuwait

• Iran launched a heavy barrage on Kuwait on Saturday morning, striking a vital oil facility and causing significant material losses and injuries, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation via state news agency KUNA.
• Kuwait airport suspended flights following the Saturday attacks, which triggered multiple rounds of sirens from around dawn.
• Iran also struck a power and desalination plant and a transformer at the Zour South facility, causing a fire and marking Tehran’s first targeting of power infrastructure during the current escalation.
• Kuwait’s foreign ministry accused Iran of systematically targeting civilian sites and vital infrastructure, saying it “endangers the lives and safety of civilians.”

Iran’s Counterstrikes

• Iran has been targeting US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain in retaliation for US strikes. The IRGC claimed its 20th wave of “Nasr 2” operations destroyed several American aircraft at a US airbase in Jordan.
• US-sanctioned Iranian tankers are U-turning and zig-zagging in the Gulf of Oman as the US enforces an aggressive blockade of Iranian shipping, having redirected three merchant ships, boarded one vessel, and disabled a non-compliant tanker.

Energy Market Impact

• Crude oil prices surged sharply, posting their biggest rise since April, as fears of renewed escalation grew and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slumped significantly.
• The Strait of Hormuz shutdown is expected to spark massive investments aimed at permanently reducing reliance on the chokepoint, restructuring global energy infrastructure and trade flows, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the New York Post on the sharp decline in millionaires in New York, costing the state billions as many flee. The exodus has been building for years but may now be accelerating. As Mayor Mamdani holds another press conference promising to end the “violence of evictions,” businesses are reading the writing on the wall. Rather than work to make the state more attractive to wealthy residents and businesses, Democrats are seeking to diminish the appeal of two-tax states. They want to tap into a long-barred area of taxation: the wealth rather than just the income of citizens. By passing a national wealth tax, Democrats will reduce the benefit of fleeing high-tax states like California and New York.

“Start spreadin’ the news, I’m leavin’ today” — that’s how the famous song “New York, New York”  captures the Big Apple’s draw.

Today, the line is becoming more ironic than iconic: Many people are indeed leaving … from New York, New York.

Worse yet, those “vagabond shoes” that “are longing to stray” are on the feet of the wealthiest New Yorkers.

And as they flee, according to a new study, they’re taking away billions in badly needed tax revenue.

As Mayor Zohran Mamdani and others pledge massive social programs and free services by taxing the wealthy, the wealthy are just melting away.

The reason is simple: if “you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.”

In today’s economy, it’s no longer necessary or even particularly beneficial to be in New York to make money in financial and other areas.

When any business meeting is a screen and a click away, you can go to a low-tax state like Florida or Texas and do as well as you can in the Big Apple.

Not surprisingly, many are choosing the money over the mystique and the madness.

This week the Citizens Budget Commission reported that New York’s share of millionaires fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022 — the largest drop of any state.

The exodus of wealthy citizens left New York short $10.7 billion in tax revenue.

By denouncing the remaining wealthy as effectively freeloaders who are “not paying their fair share,” Mamdani is only spurring them on.

It’s a demonstrably false claim that I discuss in my book Rage and the Republic — and part of a growing class-warfare theme the left is deliberately using to fuel political rage.

Yet it’s easy to form a mob —  and far more difficult to control it.

That is particularly the case when your economic policies destroy your economy, and your ability to pay for all the free services that you’ve promised.

There’s a good-faith debate to be had over optimal tax levels, but the fact is that the top 10% of Americans pay more in taxes than the other 90% of the country. The top 1% pays roughly 40% of federal taxes.

As rational actors flee the state, Mamdani and New York Democrats are forced to cull the shrinking herd of high-end taxpayers who remain, layering on special fees like a pied-à-terre tax to be imposed on NYC’s luxury property owners.

And rather than change course to make New York a more attractive place to do business and live, national Democrats are moving to make other states no better — by nationalizing wealth taxes and by taxing fleeing citizens as if they still lived in the state.

Many are following Sen. Bernie Sanders’ and Rep. Ro Khanna’s call to impose a federal wealth tax they’ve dubbed the Billionaire Tax.

The idea is to stem the exodus from California and New York by giving the highest earners no place to go . . . except out of the country.

That’s the option many took when similar wealth taxes were attempted in countries like France, only to be rescinded after doing massive economic damage.

Fleecing the wealthy is a revenue loser.

New York is losing billions, and California has reportedly lost trillions due to top taxpayers’ departure.

Unwilling to adopt greater fiscal restraints and truly compete for businesses and residents, Democrats are looking for pockets of new areas to tax.

The wealth tax is a virtual bonanza of untapped revenue — if it can make it through the courts.

Our Constitution was amended in 1913 to allow for an income tax, not a wealth tax.

Once you pay taxes on what you earn, you’re supposed to be able to use your hard-earned money to buy whatever you wish, from bikes to boats.

Democrats now want to tax those possessions: “your Rembrandts, your stock portfolio, your diamonds and your yachts,” as Sen. Elizabeth Warren once dramatically warned.

And Khanna recently confirmed what some of us have been saying for years: The Billionaire Tax isn’t only for billionaires.

“The tax should not stop at billionaires,” he said in a pitch to his party’s rising socialist movement; “it must reach centimillionaires. The tax has to reach all fortunes $50 million and up.”

Khanna and others hope that, once taken nationally, a wealth tax would destroy the benefit of moving to low-tax states — and open up literally trillions in new potential revenue.

In the meantime, New York will continue to burn billions as it taps its dwindling number of millionaires.

As their wealthy neighbors depart, those remaining will have to make up for their loss.

Being among the last to leave New York will be a costly distinction.

They will indeed “wake up” — and find that they’re “king of the hill, top of the list” for wealth redistribution.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times bestselling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The doom feed says home affordability locked a generation out. The math on the payment you actually write says something the headlines won’t.

Here are the “facts” that the media tells you about home affordability.

Let’s start with a recent survey. Two out of three Americans now say it’s a bad time to buy a house, the most negative reading Gallup has ever recorded. Another study showed that a record 25.2 million adults under 35 are living with their parents. Scroll any feed, and you’ll hear that home affordability has priced an entire generation out for good. Those are the “facts” according to the media.

However, here’s the problem with that story. When you measure home affordability today against the metric that actually governs the check you write each month, the picture flips. By that measure, buying a home may be easier now than it was for the Boomers and Gen Xers who get blamed for everything.

Let me be clear about what’s real, because I won’t build an argument on a false floor. Since 2019, the median listing price has jumped about 34% to roughly $430,000. The payment on a median home went from near $1,700 in early 2020 to about $3,100 by late 2025. Rates tripled off the 2021 lows. That shock was real, and it landed in five short years.

So the frustration makes sense. What doesn’t hold up is taking a recent, regional price spike and turning it into a permanent law of physics that applies to every zip code and every buyer. The honest version of home affordability today is narrower, more local, and far more fixable than the headline suggests.

But let’s start with the narrative that the Boomer generation had it easy. As one individual posted on X:

“You boomers had it easy, you could buy a home for the price of bread and a gallon of milk.”

Boomers Did Not Have It Easy

Here’s the part the narrative skips. The Boomer who bought in 1980 financed at a 30-year fixed rate of 13.74%, watched it climb past 18% by October 1981, and had no way to know rates would ever come back down, which made every payment feel like a life sentence. Think about that. For a median home price of $64,600 with 20% down, that household sent roughly 39% of its income to the mortgage before property taxes.6 Add the taxes, and the typical 1980 family spent close to 47% of their income on housing.

Today’s buyer, financing about $417,000 near 6.5%, spends closer to 32% on the mortgage and about 43% all in. Two independent analyses ran this exact math and landed in the same place. On the payment that matters, 1980 was as hard as, or harder than, 2026. So home affordability today is mostly a payment story, and the payment math favors the present. Notice what the work did. It isn’t the price of the home, it’s the rate.

The Crisis Is Regional, Not National

Now look at where the “home affordability” pain actually sits. A typical home in Iowa costs about 3.7 years of household income, near where the national buyer stood in 2000. Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kansas still sell near or below $300,000. Among large metros, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and Philadelphia rank among the most affordable in the country. Home affordability today is a function of your zip code first, your generation second.

The expensive markets are real, but they’re specific. And here’s the twist most coverage misses. The old escape hatch of moving somewhere cheap is closing, because Montana now costs 8.7 years of income, worse than California or New York. The same regional pattern shows up in who’s living at home. In New Jersey it’s 44% of young adults. In South Dakota, 18%.8 The map of “kids who can’t move out” is mostly a map of expensive states.

That “one in three” figure above also deserves a second look. It counts everyone ages 18 to 34, which includes college kids, 22-year-olds in their first job, and people who’ve always lived at home for a stretch. If you narrow that gap to a more realistic home ownership range, ages 25 to 34, the share drops to about 18%. And roughly 70% of those 25-to-34-year-olds at home are employed.2 So this “home affordability” story isn’t about a lazy generation or a broken job market. It’s a story about down payments, rent, and a marriage age that has drifted six years later since 1980.

Where The Skeptics Are Right

I won’t pretend that nothing has changed. Two things genuinely got harder, and waving them away would insult the reader. First, the down payment. In 1980, 20% down ran about two-thirds of a year’s income. Today it runs a full year or more, which is why the median first-time buyer now puts down just 9% to get in the door, and why the first-time buyer’s median age has climbed from 29 to roughly 40. That capital wall is a real barrier.

Second, insurance. Premiums jumped 24% from 2021 to 2024 to an average of $3,303, twice the rate of inflation, rising in 95% of zip codes. In Utah, insurance premiums rose 59%. That cost isn’t your fault, and it won’t be fixed by skipping lattes, but notice what both problems have in common. They’re specific and addressable, not a sentence handed down to an entire generation. The home affordability debate today has two honest exceptions, and naming them is what separates analysis from a comment-section rant.

Where They Aren’t

Here’s the irony buried in the down payment story. The 1980 buyer didn’t just face a 20% norm; they put down even more, averaging about 28%. To skip mortgage insurance on a conventional loan, you needed the full 20% in cash, no exceptions. There were no mainstream 3% conventional programs, no piggyback structures in wide use, no stack of state assistance grants to pull from. You saved the lump sum, or you stayed a renter.

Today, the menu is wide open. A first-time buyer can go conventional with as little as 3% down, FHA with 3.5% down, or zero down with a VA or USDA loan if eligible, and can cover even that with gift funds, a 401 (k) withdrawal, or a state assistance grant. The 20% rule is dead. The median first-time buyer actually put down 10% last year, not 20. Less down means PMI and a bigger payment, of course. But the belief that you need 20% in cash just to walk in the door is the single most expensive myth keeping renters stuck, and it hasn’t been true for decades.

The Playbook: Home Affordability Today Is on You

So what’s the move? Stop reading a national headline as a verdict on your situation. The buyer who treats “homeownership is dead” as gospel, while sitting in a market where a solid house costs three or four times income, talks himself out of a purchase he could actually make. Bob Farrell’s ninth rule fits here. When every expert and forecast agrees, something else usually happens. Sentiment just hit a record low. That’s historically when the patient buyer gets paid.

But mindset only gets you to the starting line. Here’s the part nobody wants to hear.

Working isn’t enough. Roughly 70% of the young adults living at home already have jobs, so a paycheck alone clearly doesn’t get you out of the basement. What gets you out is a set of decisions most people dodge because they sting. So let’s say them plainly.

• Run the number, then automate it. A 3.5% down payment on a $250,000 home is $8,750, about $730 a month for a year. If you can’t find $730, that’s a spending problem or an income problem, and both are yours. But here’s the part the pushback misses. The inability to save that money isn’t just a down payment problem. It’s a signal you can’t afford to own yet. The mortgage is only the floor. Property taxes, insurance that now averages $3,303 a year, the roughly 1% of a home’s value it consumes in annual upkeep, and HOA dues, if you have them, all add up to the monthly payment. Can’t bank $730 a month as a renter? You’ll drown in those carrying costs as an owner. The savings test isn’t the barrier. It’s the readiness check.

• Cut the big rocks, not the pebbles. The daily coffee isn’t what’s keeping you in your childhood bedroom, but the $650 truck payment, the $1,900 rent in a city you picked for the nightlife, and the lifestyle you finance to look successful on a phone screen absolutely are. Sell the financed truck. Get a roommate. Buy smaller, because the median new home is 38% larger than it was in 1980, making a 1,500-square-foot starter a choice rather than a hardship. Live below your means on purpose. Nobody is coming to subsidize your standard of living.

• Then move to the money. The good jobs and the cheap houses rarely sit in the same expensive zip code you grew up in. They sit in Columbus, Des Moines, Indianapolis, and Greenville, where a median income still buys a median home. Remote work made that move easier than it has ever been. If you won’t relocate for opportunity, fine, but then you’ve made unaffordability a choice, not a fate.

• Raise your income and your credit score at the same time. A side income of $1,000 a month is a full down payment in under a year. A credit jump from 580 to 620 can move you off a 3.5% FHA loan and onto a 3% conventional, saving you thousands up front and more over the life of the loan. And every year you stall has a price tag. The National Association of Realtors estimates that delaying a purchase from age 30 to 40 costs the typical buyer around $150,000 in lost equity.

The market isn’t fair. It was never fair. The only question that matters is what you’re going to do about it.

The bottom line is this. Housing isn’t unaffordable everywhere, for everyone, forever. It’s expensive in specific places, for specific reasons, and most of all since 2020. The rest is geography, a savings problem, and a story people keep repeating until they believe it. After three decades of watching cycles, I’ve learned the worst financial decisions get made when people accept a narrative instead of running the numbers.

Home affordability today is better than the Fed admits. Run your own numbers and see.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a new visa policy barring foreign nationals linked to far-left terrorist organizations from entering the U.S. The move appears to be part of a broader, multi-agency, and multinational campaign to identify, disrupt, and dismantle left-wing extremist nodes operating across the West.

“Today, the State Department is imposing new visa restrictions to bar far-left terrorists from entering our country,” Rubio said in a post on X late Thursday afternoon, hours after he hosted delegations from 65 countries around the world to begin coordinating operations to combat far-left terrorism.

He continued, “Foreigners who finance, incite, or aid and abet far-left terrorists are enemies of our civilization. They are not welcome in the United States.”

Today, @StateDept is imposing new visa restrictions to bar Far-Left Terrorists from entering our country.

Foreigners who finance, incite, or aid and abet Far-Left Terrorists are enemies of our civilization. They are not welcome in the United States.https://t.co/Xnc1dqMAHd

— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) July 16, 2026

The travel restrictions apply to individuals alleged to have financed, encouraged, or facilitated terrorism, economic sabotage, and politically motivated violence.

Related:

• “One Step Closer To Extradition”: Cox Media Heir Faces Reckoning Over Funding Marxist Revolution

The new policy is based on a provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which allows federal agents to deny entry when a foreign national’s presence could harm U.S. foreign policy interests.

No details were provided on which specific organizations or individuals will be targeted or when the restrictions will take effect.

On Thursday morning, Rubio made the opening statement during an event titled “Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism” at the State Department.

He called for the civilized world to unite against an “encroaching darkness,” urging delegations from 65 nations to defend what they have built and to fight back against those who seek to destroy it.

NEW: Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls for the civilized world to unite against an “encroaching darkness,” urging nations to defend what they have built and fight back against those who seek to destroy it.

“It is easy to destroy great things. It is far more difficult to make… pic.twitter.com/G14GjBSIXE

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 16, 2026

Rubio said, “In the United States, the share of left-wing terrorist attacks and plots has risen to levels not seen in decades. In Germany, far-left violence has jumped by more than 40% in just the last year alone.”

🚨 JUST IN: Marco Rubio is throwing Democrats into a frenzy by dropping this truth nuke that terrorism is COMING FROM THE LEFT

“In all-out assault on our immigration officers, sniper attacks, explosives, armed ambushes, a transgender shooter opening fire on Catholic elementary… pic.twitter.com/jENXMAqe1U

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) July 16, 2026

The broader message from Thursday’s event is that the US and its allies are set to confront the spread of revolutionary Marxism just as it was done seven decades ago. Washington is using an all-of-government, multinational strategy to counter far-left political violence, foreign influence networks, and subversive movements seeking to destabilize Western institutions.

That counter-movement by the federal gov’t against the revolutionary left is already underway. It follows years in which far-left NGOs and suspected foreign subversion networks sowed unrest across the U.S. while the Biden-Harris regime, Democratic officials, and elements of the intelligence and law enforcement establishment largely looked the other way and instead focused on White Catholics.

Marxist-aligned activists and their financial backers have been put on notice by the Trump administration.

The key question next week is whether the U.S. will extradite Cox Media heir Fergie Chambers.

Is Roy Singham next in the crosshairs?

What about foreign subversion networks possibly linked to the Democratic Socialists of America?

What about Hasan Piker?

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

There was a time when Communists were deported. 

And that time could be coming back. 

Eyes on the Democratic Socialists of America as a prominent Bill Clinton insider has called for “Lawmakers, law-enforcement agencies and journalists should investigate the DSA to see if it is being funded by foreign governments and interests.”

DSA is in the crosshairs but might not be the initial target by the federal government, while focus is on armed socialist organizations and Marxist NGOs with foreign ties.

Remember DSA is “partnered” with sanctioned ICAP in Cuba…

Most Americans agree that communism is bad…

• New Poll Shows American Voters Overwhelmingly Reject Communism, Dealing A Blow To DSA

… and this gives the Trump team political cover on both sides of the aisle to root out revolutionary Marxism. 

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Paul Pelosi, husband of Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), was charged with misdemeanor hit-and-run on July 17 after authorities alleged he struck another vehicle parked on the side of a road on July 3 in Napa County, California.

The Napa County District Attorney’s Office also charged Pelosi, 86, of St. Helena, with making an unlawful turn.

A witness who saw the accident called 911. Napa County Sheriff’s deputies responded to the scene in Yountville, California, on July 3 and found Pelosi sitting inside his brown convertible, about one-quarter mile away from the damaged car that was struck on the shoulder of a roadway, the department reported.

According to deputies, Pelosi’s car sustained damage to the front.

Pelosi allegedly told deputies he hit something but he did not know what or when, and had continued driving, according to the sheriff’s department statement.

He did not test positive for alcohol, authorities said.

Deputies did not arrest Pelosi at the scene. No injuries were reported at the time, and he was allowed to go home with a misdemeanor citation for leaving the scene of an accident.

The sheriff’s office recommended Pelosi to the California Department of Motor Vehicles to determine whether he should be allowed to continue driving, which is common for older drivers.

The maximum sentence for a hit-and-run offense is one year of probation, according to the district attorney’s office.

Paul Pelosi’s first court appearance is scheduled for Aug. 14.

This is the second time in four years that Pelosi has been charged by the Napa County District Attorney following an auto accident in the county.

He was convicted in Napa County Superior Court in 2022 of drunk driving and causing injury after pleading guilty to the charges.

Paul and Nancy Pelosi attend the 66th GRAMMY Awards Pre-GRAMMY and GRAMMY Salute to Industry Icons Honoring Jon Platt at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, Calif., on Feb. 3, 2024. Amy Sussman/Getty Images

Pelosi was sentenced to three years of probation and ordered to pay nearly $5,000 in restitution to the accident victim for medical bills, serve five days in jail, and submit to blood, breath, or urine tests if requested by an officer.

He was also mandated to enroll in a program for three months and install an ignition interlock device on his vehicle for one year as part of the sentence.

In an unrelated incident that same year, he was attacked and beaten with a hammer inside the couple’s San Francisco home.

A spokesperson for the Pelosi family did not immediately return a request for comment.

Summary

• CENTCOM says two US troops killed in Iranian attack on Jordan base.
• Iran formally suspends MoU with the US, declaring agreement is over & commitments will no longer be fulfilled.
• Fighting escalates into seventh strait day of heavy bombings.
• Iran reportedly struck a US base in Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months.
• US strikes disrupt southern Iran’s telecom network, knocking out 116 communication towers amid new infrastructure war.
• Iran pounds Kuwait’s energy infrastructure, damaging power & desalination facilities.

*  *  *

Americans Killed by Iranian Missiles on Jordan

Footage has been widely circulating over the past half-day showing massive Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Jordan. Iran said it targeted a US base there, and took out various aerial and radar assets, and caused casualties among American troops.

But the Pentagon has been radio silent on the extent of potential damage, until now: US officials are reporting that two American service members were killed in the overnight Iranian attack. According to emerging details in Axios:

Two U.S. service members were killed and more wounded in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on an airbase in Jordan on Saturday, military officials said.

This is the first time U.S. troops have been killed since the fighting resumed two weeks ago. The incident raises the number of U.S. service members killed in the war to 16.

On Saturday at least two Iranian ballistic missiles hit the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts U.S. troops and fighter jets.

CENTCOM posted to X, officially confirming the news: “On July 17, two U.S. service members in Jordan were killed in action as U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and partner forces defended against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. Additionally, one service member is currently missing in action.”

Two Iranian medium-range ballistic missile impacts were reported at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan earlier tonight. pic.twitter.com/NLgLeghrs7

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 18, 2026

The statement has noted additional injuries: “Four American service members were medically evacuated to Jordanian hospitals. They have since been discharged. Other personnel who were evaluated for minor injuries have returned to duty,” CENTCOM said.

Iran Formally Suspends MoU

It is now “official”: the Iranians have declared that the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States is dead. Tasnim is reporting Saturday that Iran will no longer fulfill its MoU obligations amid alleged repeat US violations. The past weeks have seen each side hurl warnings and threats to pull out, while attaching conditions that must be fulfilled.

But after what is now a full week of renewed fighting, it has been effectively torn up, with negotiations no longer happening. Al Jazeera is citing a top Iran official’s precise statement on suspending the MoU in the following:

Previously, we have seen again and again Iranian officials accusing the US of violating the MoU and also putting some conditions if the aggression continues.

What we’re seeing is Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, who is also head of the Iranian technical negotiating team, saying that in practice, the US has violated all the commitments and suspended the MoU entirely.

“We also likewise have suspended all of our commitments as a result; we are no longer implementing those commitments,” he added.

So, officially, this is the first time the Iranians are saying the MoU is over and they’re not going to implement any clause.

Given President Trump has apparently just ordered dozens more aerial refueling planes to the region, the conflict looks to continue going up the escalation ladder for at least the next week or longer. Each side will seek to impose more economic and military pain, while waiting for the other to blink. Battle of narratives over damage and retaliation:

🇮🇷🇯🇴⚡️– Insane footage of Iranian ballistic missiles striking Jordanian air bases despite a large number of interceptors in the air.

Despite clear footage of impacts they still deny it and lie that all of them were intercepted. pic.twitter.com/Es8hw7TCXJ

— MonitorX (@MonitorX99800) July 18, 2026

Saudi Base Attacked for First Time in 4 Months

Saudi Arabia has come under attack by Iranian missiles in the last 24 hours, the kingdom is confirming on Saturday, in a major escalation given that this is a first since near the start of the war several months ago. According to Reuters:

The Saudi civil defense early on Saturday issued two early warnings for Al-Kharj city and Yanbu to be alert to “potential danger,” but it later says the danger has passed in both areas, without providing details on the danger that triggered the warnings.

A US official tells the Axios news site that Iran targeted an American military base in Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile, the first time that the Islamic Republic has directly attacked the kingdom in four months.

Locations in Jordan and even Syria have also been hit in recent salvos, but the US military has downplayed these attacks – and there’s a battle of narratives over just how destructive these have been amid the fog of war.

Kuwait also reeling from stepped-up attacks…

⚡️ 🎦Unprecedented crowd at Kuwait Airport for departure from the country pic.twitter.com/Db5IeZsmDg

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) July 18, 2026

116 Telecoms Towers In Southern Iran Taken Out

As we featured earlier, Iranian communications and even the supply of drinking water have been severely impacted in some places of southern Iran, amid continuing US airstrikes on civic and national infrastructure, amid the seventh consecutive day of war. “Hormozgan’s chief of communications and information technology says the US’s overnight attacks disrupted telecommunications in Bandar Abbas and Hajiabad, in the northern part of the province,” Al Jazeera reports

Authorities there have tallied at least 116 telecommunication towers which were taken out of service due to the US onslaught. This has resulted in outages and disruptions of fixed-line, mobile, and internet services, per Tasnim news agency.

This suggests the US is returning to a strategy which seeks to create destabilization within, targeting the ability of the public to communicate and access information, returning the situation to the early weeks of the war, which saw Tehran authorities themselves curb internet and some telecoms access for the citizenry.

Kuwait Power & Desalination Plant Hit

Kuwait was bombarded overnight in one of the fiercest Iranian retaliatory strikes since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, with missiles and one-way drones targeting power infrastructure and other critical energy assets.

Local outlet Kuwait News Agency reports an unspecified site of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation suffered “significant material losses” as the week-long flare-up in Gulf tensions has derailed any near-term normalization of tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

There was a report that the Al-Subiya power station was struck. This marks the second attack on Kuwaiti power infrastructure in just days, after a transformer at the Zour South electricity and desalination complex was hit on Friday.

Authorities disconnected several power-generating units as a precaution and urged residents to conserve electricity. A Kuwaiti army base was also struck during the latest escalation, injuring several personnel.

Second Iranian strike in two days hit a Kuwaiti power/desalination plant, sparking a fire.

A similar plant was hit yesterday.

Strikes are part of Iran’s ongoing campaign against US military sites in Kuwait (Ali Al Salem base and others).

Kuwait relies on desalination for ~90%… pic.twitter.com/EyTPOwTIsM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 18, 2026

Infrastructure War in Full Swing

On March 2, we warned: 

• Airports, Data Centers, Skyscrapers, & Power Plants: Are Desalination Plants Next Targets In U.S.-Iran War

Bahrain and Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. The overnight barrage followed a seventh consecutive night of US strikes targeting Iranian surveillance sites, weapons storage, logistics infrastructure and maritime offensive capabilities as the Department of War seeks to erode Tehran’s leverage on the Hormuz waterway.

As of late Friday, the previous US-Iran wrap stated:

• Surge in more large US refueling planes headed to Mideast, signaling likely expansion of strikes on Iran.
• US attacks hit Iranian energy and transport infrastructure.
• Iran threatens stronger retaliation and claims strike on US base in Qatar – and deepens attacks to include US outposts in Jordan, Syria.
• Iran urges power conservation; Hormuz shipping traffic declines further.
• Oil prices rise to session highs on fears of broader regional conflict.

Brent chart

The latest Hormuz tanker transit data via Bloomberg shows that activity at the maritime chokepoint has all but ceased. This data is based on ships activating their transponders and doesn’t account for ships that ‘go dark’…

Overnight headlines

…courtesy of Bloomberg:

US-Iran Escalation

• The US launched its seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran on Friday at 3 p.m. ET, aimed at degrading Iran’s military capabilities, including hitting bridges, energy infrastructure, and a port facility in southern Iran, according to Iranian state media.
• The conflict has intensified beyond military targets, with the US striking six road bridges and reports of attacks near Bushehr’s nuclear power plant and the province of Lorestan, raising fears of a return to full-scale war.
• The hostilities were triggered by an Iranian drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, just days after the US and Iran signed a preliminary ceasefire deal, setting off a chain of escalating attacks.
• Iran has threatened a “full-scale offensive” in response to US strikes, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining virtually closed as of Saturday.

Iran Attacks Kuwait

• Iran launched a heavy barrage on Kuwait on Saturday morning, striking a vital oil facility and causing significant material losses and injuries, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation via state news agency KUNA.
• Kuwait airport suspended flights following the Saturday attacks, which triggered multiple rounds of sirens from around dawn.
• Iran also struck a power and desalination plant and a transformer at the Zour South facility, causing a fire and marking Tehran’s first targeting of power infrastructure during the current escalation.
• Kuwait’s foreign ministry accused Iran of systematically targeting civilian sites and vital infrastructure, saying it “endangers the lives and safety of civilians.”

Iran’s Counterstrikes

• Iran has been targeting US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain in retaliation for US strikes. The IRGC claimed its 20th wave of “Nasr 2” operations destroyed several American aircraft at a US airbase in Jordan.
• US-sanctioned Iranian tankers are U-turning and zig-zagging in the Gulf of Oman as the US enforces an aggressive blockade of Iranian shipping, having redirected three merchant ships, boarded one vessel, and disabled a non-compliant tanker.

Energy Market Impact

• Crude oil prices surged sharply, posting their biggest rise since April, as fears of renewed escalation grew and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slumped significantly.
• The Strait of Hormuz shutdown is expected to spark massive investments aimed at permanently reducing reliance on the chokepoint, restructuring global energy infrastructure and trade flows, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

In a major victory those seeking to rid America of bans on so-called “assault weapons,” for the first time ever, a federal appeals court has ruled that a state’s ban on AR-15s and similar rifles, and its ban on “high-capacity” magazines, violate the 2nd Amendment to the US Constitution.

The bans in question had been enacted by New Jersey, but the ruling carries weight throughout the jurisdiction of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, which also includes Pennsylvania and Delaware. More significantly, the Third Circuit ruling creates a direct circuit split — the term used to describe a situation where two or more federal courts hand down different interpretations of the same legal controversy, which results in litigants in different parts of the country experiencing sharply different outcomes. Circuit splits are one of the key factors that make an issue ripe for US Supreme Court review.

Late last month, the Supreme Court already agreed to hear an appeal of rulings that upheld a “assault rifle” ban imposed by Connecticut and by Cook County — where Chicago is situated. The question posed to the high court by the petitioners: “Whether the Second and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee the right to possess AR-15 platform and similar semi-automatic rifles.” 

Comically flaunting his supposed credentials on the issue by noting that he “qualified as an expert shot” in the Navy and is thus “familiar with firearms,” New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill condemned the ruling in a statement: 

“Today’s decision is dangerous, wrong, and make no mistake, it will make New Jersey communities less safe…This decision is not only legally wrong, it’s completely out of step with parents and the people of the Garden State…We will not back down from extreme, right-wing attempts to weaken the laws of New Jersey.”

The Third Circuit Court reviewed the case en banc — that is, all active judges of the circuit participated in hearing and deciding the case.  They threw out the New Jersey rifle and magazine bans by a 10-to-5 margin. A majority of the Third Circuit judges were appointed by Republicans, but the majority opinion was written by a Biden-appointed judge, Arianna Freeman. As required by the landmark 2022 Bruen decision, the Third Circuit and all other federal courts are required to evaluate whether a given restriction on the right of armed self-defense is consistent with the country’s historical tradition of firearms regulation. 

Freeman and her fellow judges in the majority flatly rejected the notion, embraced by other circuits, that AR-15 rifles are not “arms” as the term is used in the Second Amendment: 

“Even the narrowest Founding-era definition of ‘Arms’ addressed by the Heller Court ‘stated that all firearms constituted ‘arms,’”… “Because semi-automatic rifles are firearms, they are ‘Arms’ within the meaning of the Second Amendment. The Constitution thus ‘presumptively protects’ individuals’ right to keep and bear semi-automatic rifles.”

The majority decision also rejected the ban over the “common use” standard that was created by the Supreme Court’s 2008 Heller decision: 

They also found no historical roots with which to justify the ban on AR-15 and similar rifles: 

“Together, Heller and Bruen teach that bans or broad prohibitions on possessing or carrying of a class of weapons in common use for lawful purposes fail to find support in our Nation’s tradition of firearm regulation. That is so even when the regulations are passed with the intention of reducing gun violence .. That principle resolves our inquiry here.

In the primary dissenting opinion, Biden appointee Patty Shwartz said “the objective features of AR-15s and [large-capacity magazines] render them disproportionate to ‘ordinary self-defense needs’ and thus outside the scope of the Second Amendment’s protection.”