Fed Holds Rates Unchanged (As Expected), ‘Dots’ Signal Hawkish Bias As Warsh Takes Over
Tl;dr: No rate change (as expected) but a dramatically hawkish shift in The Fed’s bias (9 members seeing at least one hike this year). Statement smilled down dramatically, also biases towards hawkish focus on price stability (inflation) over employment: “The Committee will deliver price stability”.
“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed.” – BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey
* * *
Since the last FOMC meeting (Jay Powell’s final one as Fed Chair) on April 29th, markets have shifted sharply with oil plunging (along with weakness in gold and bitcoin) while stocks have rallied sharply (shrugging off a brief dip) with bonds unchanged and the dollar modestly stronger…
The US macro-economic data has surprised considerably to the upside since the last FOMC (with strong ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data and the labor market showing significant resilience)…
With both Growth and Inflation signals rising (a dilemma for The Fed)…
Additionally, the market has shifted significantly more hawkish since the last FOMC (still pricing cuts) and obviously dramatically more hawkish since the start of the war…
But this Fed meeting is different as Kevin Warsh takes the mantle from Jay Powell (who remains on the board) as Fed Chair with the key risk for markets is that expectations for a dovish Warsh have become elevated.
So What Did The Fed Do?
The Fed left rates unchanged as expected:
FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE
NO DISSENTS
And the statement was dramatically shortened, entirely dropping paragraph 4:
FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
No forward guidance in the statement
Read the full red-line below:
Balance Sheet
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday adjusted the language of its policy implementation note to reflect that it instructs the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to increase its purchases of Treasury bills “when appropriate.”
According to the implementation note FOMC instructed, “When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”
That compares with the April memo, which said: “Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”
The ‘Dots’
The ‘Dots’ are clearly signaling an end to the ‘easing bias’ of the prior Fed: with nine members seeing at least one rate hike this year:
2026 dot distribution changes:
3 rate-hikes: from 0 to 1
2 rate-hikes: from 0 to 5
1 rate-hike: from 0 to 3
No rate change: from 7 to 8
1 rate cut: from 7 to 1
2 rate cuts: from 2 to 0
3 rate cuts: from 2 to 0
4 rate-cuts: from 1 (Stephen Miran) to 0
Only 18 of 19 officials submitted their ‘dots’ with some suggesting Warsh himself did not contribute
Could this be the last time we see the ‘Dots’ (with Warsh’s notable rejection of forward guidance)?
Economic Projections
The new inflation forecasts are really not good.
Core PCE is seen rising 3.3% this year, well above the 2.7% penciled in back in March.
That means no disinflation from right now, because the most recent core inflation reading was indeed 3.3%.
But, the median forecast of those submitting projections shows inflation slowing to 2.5% next year, but still notably up on 2.2% last time.
Growth is also seen slowing…
…but unemployment improving
All eyes now on Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair which is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.
Will Trump react to the lack of a rate-cut?
Will be ironic if Trump fires Warsh before EOD after he doesn’t cut
Crypto scammers are using couriers to pick up cash from victims in person to avoid being traced by banks, the FBI is warning.
The fraudsters first approach targets, typically seniors, with business or romantic proposals via social media, texts, or a fake cryptocurrency investment profile, the bureau said in a June 15 public service announcement alert.
“After establishing a relationship with the victim, the scammer suggests investing in cryptocurrency and instructs the victim to download specific cryptocurrency trading applications and create investment accounts.”
Typically, victims are asked to send wire transfers to various domestic and international bank accounts under the guise of deposit accounts.
They get access to websites showing fictitious returns on investment, which entices them to deposit even more money.
Legitimate financial institutions often flag such transfers as suspicious and block them. To bypass this, scammers are instructing victims to hand over money to fake investment accounts via in-person cash pickups.
The victims are led to believe the money they send will be deposited into their investment accounts.
“Once the cash pickup occurs and the courier departs, victims can see an increase in deposits in their virtual wallet displayed on their account with the scammer’s investment platform,” the FBI said.
“When the victim attempts to withdraw their perceived profits, scammers will begin the loop over by forcing the victim to pay fraudulent taxes and penalties, again using couriers for cash pickups to perpetrate the fraud.”
In 2024 the FBI issued an alert about couriers being used by scammers who had convinced their victims into liquidating their assets into cash or precious metals.
The fraudsters, posing as tech support or government officials, would insist such an action was necessary to protect the target’s funds because their financial accounts were hacked or at risk of being hacked.
In its latest alert, the FBI advised people to protect their personal information, such as banking details, and to never meet with unknown individuals to hand over cash or other valuables as part of any investment scheme.
“Beware of ‘love bombing,’ a social manipulation technique employed by online scammers and other malicious actors wherein a victim is quickly showered with praise, attention, and manipulated to feel trust and intimacy with a person prior to having their lowered guard exploited by a scam or other malicious behavior,” the agency said.
According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, published in April, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received 181,565 complaints regarding various cryptocurrency schemes last year, up 21 percent from 2024.
Losses from these complaints totaled over $11.36 billion. The average loss was $62,604, and 18,589 people lost more than $100,000 each.
The largest group of complaints filed were made by people over the age of 60. They also suffered the highest losses, totaling more than $4.43 billion.
Democrat Politicians Seethe After Baseball Players “Deface” Pride Night With Bible Verses
Recently we reported on the MLB’s angry response to three San Francisco Giants players who scribbled bible verses across their “Pride Night” uniforms in a silent protest. The incident takes place in the midst of a rising tide of popular opposition to the woke movement’s political authoritarianism. Gay pride has become synonymous with the liberal “cry-bully”: Activists who try to assert social dominance over others then play the victim when people fight back.
California State Senator and rabid gay activist Scott Wiener is the epitome of a typical woke cry-bully. He is perhaps best known as an advocate for the “kink community” and his defense of gender treatments (hormones and sex change surgeries) for children. He is also a militant supporter of sexualized LGBT propaganda in public schools.
Wiener has criticized medical facilities that refuse to give gender bending treatments to people under 19 years of age and supported measures to make California a “transgender safe haven”.
It’s therefore not surprising that Wiener is enraged by anything Christian or biblical entering his big gay domain, and he had a lot to say about the Giant’s players who defiled his precious Pride Night.
Senator Wiener on MAGA Homophobic Backlash Against Major League Baseball:
“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to…
— Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) June 16, 2026
“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to ‘take back’ the rainbow from LGBTQ people. The players could have displayed this passage any night of the year but chose to do it only on Pride Night.
The Giants, sadly, took no action in response, which is inconsistent with the Giants’ longstanding support for our LGBTQ community. Major League Baseball then warned the players that MLB rules bar defacement of uniforms. The Giants should publicly commit to enforcing rules around uniform defacement and should not effectively create a homophobia exemption to those rules…”
The state senator acts as if the players broke some kind of law. Baseball club rules are private business arrangements, not statutes that require the the frantic complaints of a homosexual Karen. That said, Wiener’s response to this event is quite revealing.
Biblical scripture references are not “defacement”, at least not of anything sacred. But to Wiener, the act is the same as if someone burned a Bible or a Koran. The woke seething over such a minor thing makes it clear that the LGBT movement is not a civil rights movement; that ended decades ago. Today, the LGBT movement is a political supremacy movement, and prominent athletes have every right to openly oppose it.
The pride event featured a number of LGBT promotions, including 10 same-sex married couples renewing their vows before the first pitch (what this has to do with baseball is unclear). Interestingly, the crowd turnout for Pride Night games has been crashing in the past couple years.
San Francisco Board of Supervisors member and Democrat Matt Dorsey, who is openly gay and claims to be a “person of faith”, complained on social media about the bible verses. He called the incident “disappointing in several respects” and he views the players as “problematically undisciplined”. He asserts that professional athletes’ uniforms are not a “canvas for individual self-expression – especially about politics.”
This issue is, of course, a matter between the players and their employers, not a matter of politics. However, the woke movement, which is now in decline, views their takeover of American sports as a particularly important coup. The traditionally masculine industry is now a platform to spread gay Marxist gender theory. No one would have believed it a couple decades ago, and the political left is desperate not to lose ground in this arena of the culture war.
D-backs pitcher Ryan Thompson, who is a proclaimed Christian, spoke on the MLB warning SF Giants players who wrote Bible verses on Pride Night caps:
“I think there’s a perceived negativity with this stuff. Landen Roupp wrote a verse on his hat that means he’s anti something.… pic.twitter.com/SFFJARW6v6
At bottom, leftists view American culture as a series of platforms to be targeted and co-opted. They were wildly successful for around a decade, but things are changing rapidly now that the general public is aware of the agenda. Activist politicians like Wiener are angry about a bible verse on a baseball cap because, to them, this is a symbol of their shrinking power over the common discourse.
The notion of a political movement rooted in forcing the populace to celebrate the aberrant sexual hobbies of its members is not winning the hearts and minds of anyone. It’s doing the opposite.
Iran’s first observed crude oil exports in two months have moved past the US blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz in a sign that Iran is wasting no time to take advantage of the tentative deal with the United States.
Following the announcement of the deal this weekend, and ahead of a formal signing ceremony expected in Switzerland on Friday, at least three Iranian crude oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz and departed from the region moving past the U.S. blockade so far this week, tanker-tracking firms have said.
TankerTrackers.com has estimated through AIS data corroborated by satellite imagery that at least two supertankers of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) have moved through the U.S. blockade. The very large crude carriers (VLCCs), named Diona and Hero2, have kade perimeter carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them, TankerTrackers.com said.
“These are Iran’s first crude oil exports in two months,” the ship-tracking service said.
BREAKING: CRUDE OIL DEPARTS IRAN FOLLOWING A TWO MONTH LONG NAVY BLOCKADE
According to AIS data which we corroborated yesterday (2026-06-15) by satellite imagery, at least two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertankers named DIONA (9569695) and HERO2 (9362073) have… pic.twitter.com/tSesQTcC6K
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) June 16, 2026
Another tanker of the National Iranian Tanker Company, the Stream, is approaching the U.S. blockade line from the exclusive economic zone of Pakistan, where she spent the past 7 weeks waiting to enter Iran, according to TankerTrackers.com.
Kpler has observed a third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude that exited the blockade line on Wednesday.
“Iran is wasting no time getting its tankers back into circulation,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.
The VLCC Dan of the NITC has left the area near the Riau archipelago where it has been dark since May 23 and is now heading to Iran for loading, Bockmann added.
The Iranian oil tanker traffic is intensifying, with the deal that would launch 60-day negotiations set to be signed in Geneva on Friday. In addition, Iran is preparing to take advantage of the U.S. allowing Iranian oil sales immediately upon signing of the agreement. Under the agreement expected to formally end the war between the United States and Iran, Tehran will be allowed to immediately resume oil and fuel sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the details of the deal.
“The Kevin Warsh Era Has Arrived With A Bang”: Wall Street Reacts To Warsh’s First FOMC
Below is a snapshot of several kneejerk reactions from some Wall street economists, strategists and traders:
Anna Wong, head economist at Bloomberg:
“The Kevin Warsh era has arrived with a bang – in the form of a dramatically shortened FOMC policy statement and a dot plot that didn’t contain any dot from the chairman himself. That marks a break from the eras of former chairs Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke. But the rest of the committee sent an equally strong signal: They want rate hikes. Half of the committee penciled in hikes this year, while the other half anticipates holding rates steady or cutting once. That means Warsh could play a key role in influencing the direction of rates. We no longer expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points later this year.”
Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis
“Thinks this is overall a hawkish move — rates steady, easing biased removed, no dissents. The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability….all in all, a hawkish statement… The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability…. all in all, a hawkish statement.””
Kay Haigh, Goldman Sachs Asset Management
“Today’s meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices. Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data. Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data.”
Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Economics
“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed. Warsh’s stamp on the statement seems evident, with language moving closer to the style used before the Global Financial Crisis. The effort to make the Fed less transparent may reduce day-to-day volatility, but it risks larger jumps when the Fed’s reaction function or economic data surprise markets… “We thought Warsh might be diplomatic in taking on his post as Fed chair, and the creation of these task forces allows for shifts in the way the central bank functions, while giving everyone within the building a voice and giving him a means to express his own views while assessing the those of others.””
Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management
“Warsh turned the table over in the Eccles Building with a radical simplification of the Fed’s policy announcement. By doing this, he’s actually inviting more Fed-speak, not less. Now every Fed President will fill the gap left by the punchy policy announcement. This may backfire on Warsh.”
David Wilcox, Bloomberg Economics:
“The committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. That’s notable, because the statement didn’t have to address it — and analysts had been thinking one way Warsh could slim down the Fed’s balance sheet would be to revert from ample reserves to scarce reserves,” Wilcox said. “Today’s statement suggests they’re not doing that — at least not right off the bat.”
Marvin Loh, State Street
“The biggest initial message from Warsh is that the commutations process is changing if we look at the wholesale changes to the policy statement. Bare bones is an understatement and for a market that has become accustomed to extensive Fed communications, we may need to read between the lines more closely with less lines available. We can now wonder how long the presser will last.”
Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Investment Managers
“The market moves reflect a repricing of Fed credibility and independence. Inflation is clearly back at the center of the reaction function of the central bank and someone is at its helm. This reinforces a higher-for-longer real rate environment.”
After Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe released the Rape Gang Inquiry Report, which documented the systemic rape and often torture of up to 250,000 young British girls at the hands of predominately Muslim rape gangs, SpaceX and Tesla founder Elon Musk agreed with calls for Nuremberg-style trials for the perpetrators and those who enabled the heinous attacks.
One post calling for Nuremberg Trials in connection to the rape gang inquiry and executions for those who were responsible, also received a one-word response from Musk, who stated: “Yes.”
“The incidents of criminal activities listed in this report are drawn from court records, official and unofficial inquiries across the country, and witness testimony provided to the Inquiry. They confirm that this was never a series of isolated local failures. It was a coordinated, nationwide pattern of organised child sexual exploitation that repeated in town after town, city after city, from the far north to the south coast. The same ethnic and religious profile of the perpetrators was documented throughout almost all of the witnesses who contacted the Inquiry.”
The politicians who turned a blind eye to the Rape of Britain must go to prison pic.twitter.com/JFfHZSwiDc
The report further states that “the scale of the rape gang phenomenon is endemic across the entirety of Britain.”
The report cites the figure of 250,000 raped across Britain, which comes from a statement in the House of Lords by Lord Pearson of Rannoch on May 14, 2019:
“Do the Government accept that if we extrapolate nationally the Jay report on Rotherham and other reports from Telford and Oxford, there appear to have been upwards of 250,000 young white girls raped in this century, very largely by Muslim men, usually several times a day for years?”
He added that this number “is probably an underestimate.”
The report found that this number can now be supported through the data collected in the report, which scaled the data from the most thoroughly and well-documented inquiries.
The report cites:
“Rotherham (Jay Report, 2014): At least 1,400 girls abused between 1997 and 2013, with some updated estimates exceeding this. Perpetrators were overwhelmingly Pakistani Muslim men.”
“Telford Inquiry (2022): More than 1,000 children (predominantly girls) over decades, again with the same perpetrator profile.”
List of heinous crimes
The report makes for difficult reading. It found that the victims were typically between eight to 12 years old.
Children were forced to have sex with dogs and beaten with bats, which were then inserted into them anally and vaginally.
In one case, a little girl’s tongue was nailed to the wall so she could not move while she was being raped by multiple men.
It was also found that police were warning rapists that they were being reported in order to threaten the victims into stopping their reports. In other instances, police participated in the gang rapes themselves.
One girl was raped by between 30 to 80 men, most of whom were never charged by British authorities.
In another case, a little girl was told: “If you don’t come back, I’m going to rape your little sister instead.”
When one mother tried to call for help, a British police officer told her: “You should be happy your daughter is experiencing a different culture.” He then hung up on her.
Another girl was blinded by acid while trying to escape one of the rape gangs.
Widespread torture and rape across the country
The report also noted the widespread nature of the mass gang rapes, both geographically and temporally:
“Grooming gangs operate in 149 Local Authority Districts with victims numbering in the hundreds of thousands,” according to the report.
“The grooming gang model has been confirmed in dozens of towns and cities. Our independent Inquiry, led by Rupert Lowe MP, has heard evidence demonstrating coordinated operations extending to all corners of the country, in at least 149 local authority districts.”
The report notes that, “When the Rotherham/’Telford scale is applied across the documented national distribution, and multiplied by the extreme under-reporting factor accepted by official reviews, the total reaches the 250,000 threshold as a bare minimum.”
However, much of the abuse remains in the shadows and more investigation is required, not only to document this historical injustice, but to potentially hold those accountable for what occurred.
“We are far from grasping the full extent of grooming gang criminality in modern Britain. It is reasonable to assume that, since sexual abuse of all kinds tends to be under-reported, this is also true of grooming gangs. The Independent has reported that almost 19,000 children were identified as sexual exploitation victims in England in one year alone, despite the reluctance of state actors to name or tackle the problem of the rape gangs. After decades of abuse, victims must number in the hundreds of thousands. The full scale is not yet known.”
The report acknowledges that it may be impossible to ever ascertain how many victims there truly were, as much of the information was not documented or remains suppressed.
Every major review has emphasised that recorded statistics severely understate reality:
Baroness Casey National Audit on Group-Based Child Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (June 2025): The audit explicitly states that the scale, nature, and characteristics of group-based child sexual exploitation remain impossible to quantify precisely due to inconsistent data collection and historical suppression.
Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA) and multiple local inquiries (2022-2025): “It is simply not possible to know the scale” because ethnicity, group offending, and historical cases were routinely unrecorded or shelved to protect “community cohesion.”
Government actors presided over a cover-up
The report further notes that key players in the government were instrumental in keeping the mass rape from being investigated and revealed to the public.
The report notes:
Roger Stone (Labour council leader, Rotherham 2003-2014): Presided over local government during the cover-up documented in the Jay Report.
Multiple Rotherham Labour councillors interfered in police investigations, tipped off perpetrators, or dismissed victims as “making lifestyle choices” to protect “community relations” and votes.
While Sir Keir Starmer was the Director of Public Prosecutions, it has been reported that 13,000 suspected rape gang members and paedophiles were let off with warning letters.
As stated earlier, the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan repeatedly insisted there were no grooming gangs operating in the city. He described evidence from whistleblowers as politically motivated. He told the London Assembly that child sexual exploitation in the capital is a “far more complex” matter and does not fit the grooming-style patterns on display across deprived northern towns. These statements he made despite the fact that the Metropolitan Police had in its possession reports of young girls being plied with alcohol and drugs then raped by groups of men in hotels and other locations across London. A Daily Express investigation revealed that Khan had direct access to HM Inspectorate of Constabulary documents detailing the very patterns of offending he had denied. Khan read these files yet continued to deny the existence of grooming gangs in public.
Overall, the Labour Party did not just fail to prosecute the gangs. In some cases, its own members were the abusers and in most cases its councillors, leaders, and ministers put loyalty to Pakistani Muslim blocs before child safety. No other political party has such a well-documented track record of direct involvement with and institutional protection of industrial-scale child rape. This was in large part due to Labour’s own electoral self-interest.”
Police dismiss victims as racists
In regards to the police, a huge portion of the UK police force was active in the cover-up.
Only the police took any formal action, issuing ‘harbouring notices’ to the men – official warnings stating they had no permission to associate with, contact, or house a vulnerable child. However, no further action followed. When Fiona’s mother called the police to report her daughter missing and mentioned a history of abuse by Asian men, the call handler told her: “You can’t describe them as Asian men because that’s racist. You should just be glad your child is being taught a different culture.”
On one occasion, a police officer returned Fiona to the house where the abuse was occurring and told the men to “have fun with her.” On another occasion, police instructed the abusers that if they could persuade Fiona to sign herself out of care, the police would stop bothering them.
A migrant-fueled rape crisis
The report notes that these grooming gangs primarily consisted of Africans, Indians, Gypsies, Asians, and Muslims:
Researcher Peter McLoughlin in Easy Meat (2016) compiled a comprehensive list of grooming gang convictions from 1997 to 2018 (with updates in subsequent analyses), drawing from published court outcomes. His examination of names indicated that approximately 87% of those convicted bore distinctively Muslim names, which was a figure echoed in related analyses far exceeding the Muslim proportion (around 6%) of the general population of Britain.
The majority of these convicted groups consisted entirely of men from Muslim backgrounds. These groups are predominantly of Pakistani heritage, especially when the group exceeds ten or more members. The larger group size dynamic of Pakistani perpetrators is on display in major prosecutions and official reviews from locations such as Rochdale, Rotherham, Huddersfield, Oxford, Telford, and others.
Other convictions have involved groups primarily composed of Muslims from non-Pakistani origins, demonstrating that the issue is not necessarily confined to one ethnic group:
• Two Somali-origin gangs in Bristol
• A mainly African-heritage gang in Banbury
• Three Iranians in Chelmsford
• Three Syrians and one Kuwaiti in Newcastle
• Two Turkish men in Somerset
• A Romanian rape gang in Rotherham
The large Newcastle “‘Operation Sanctuary” case, involving 17 men and one woman from diverse Muslim backgrounds: Albanian, Kurdish, Bangladeshi, Indian, Turkish, Iranian, Iraqi, Pakistani, and Eastern European heritage. Nearly all published names were Islamic.
An additional expert commentary included statement from Dr. Taj Hargey, an imam at the Oxford Islamic Congregation. He noted that virtually every individual in these grooming gangs appeared to be Muslim, estimating that 95 percent of those involved are of Muslim faith.
Beyond Europe?
The grooming gangs are also operating in other countries, including France on a massive scale, but also such cases are arising in Germany. Remarkably, Musk’s calls for a Nuremberg-style trial just so happen to coincide with reports that in the city of Nuremberg itself, there are grooming gangs operating targeting underage German girls.
For his part, Lowe says the issue is and continues to be mass immigration.
“Essentially what has happened is that the decaying political establishment has imported millions of migrants from alien cultures that are entirely incompatible with the British way of life,” stated Lowe on X.
Essentially what has happened is that the decaying political establishment has imported millions of migrants from alien cultures that are entirely incompatible with the British way of life.
Those migrants have colonised large parts of our country, and live their lives how they…
“Those migrants have colonised large parts of our country, and live their lives how they choose to do so because our authorities are too frightened of being called racist to challenge them. That has meant attitudes have flourished and spread which, in short, treat women and non-Muslims like shit. And yes, I do mean that.”
He said that the entire political class was to blame, including “Conservative, Labour and Reform politicians [who] are all directly responsible for this vast importation. Personally, I will never forgive anyone responsible. Vulnerable working class white girls were treated like a piece of meat. Raped, abused, tortured, murdered. It was a racial attack, and it was a coordinated attack. All across Britain. They targeted these girls because they were vulnerable, they were young, they were white. Until the political class accepts that fact, nothing will EVER change.”
“Early Signs Of A Turn In US Consumer Discretionary,” UBS Says
Brent crude futures tumbled below the $80-per-barrel level earlier this morning for the first time since March as traders priced in the U.S.-Iran peace deal and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint on Friday. Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets both slashed their fourth-quarter Brent crude forecasts, reinforcing the view that the war-risk premium is rapidly deflating.
If oil has peaked, then inflation pressures may have peaked as well, a positive setup that could provide some tailwinds for consumers this summer through lower fuel costs.
Piper Sandler Chief Global Economist Nancy Lazar told clients, “If inflation has indeed peaked, that will boost real incomes (nominal incomes have been solid), a positive for both real consumer spending and housing, but don’t expect robust growth in either.”
On Monday, GasBuddy data showed the national average for gasoline slipped below the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for the first time in months.
We have outlined in countless notes (read here, here, here, and here) that gas prices above $4 forced consumers to trade down across retailers and, in some cases, to pull back on discretionary purchases altogether.
Pump prices are set to tumble further…
Now that energy prices are moving lower, consumer sentiment is likely to improve. UBS analyst Mark Paski told clients about “early signs of a turn in U.S. consumer discretionary.”
Paski explained:
Fairly quiet day across the US consumer, despite the move lower in crude oil and rates following headlines over the weekend.
…
The risk/reward in consumer discretionary is beginning to shift from the doldrums seen as recently as two weeks ago. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) versus front-month crude oil (CL1) suggests there is still further upside to the discretionary trade, given crude’s move lower this morning. Lower yields should also provide incremental support.
Consumer staples were the second-best performing sector last week (behind materials), and I would expect some residual relief today—particularly within the household and personal care space.
Chart: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)
That said, the CPI for energy is on track to slide for June. But consumers are not out of the woods yet. Months of elevated energy prices have already offset the rapidly fading tailwinds from tax cuts. And not to be the bearer of bad news, but one lagged effect of the energy shock could still show up on supermarket shelves later this year.
Snap’s Goofy AR Glasses Underwhelm Wall Street After Decade-Long Development Push
Snap’s new $2,195 augmented-reality glasses are being viewed by Wall Street analysts less as a mass-market consumer device and more as a developer kit, given the expensive price point.
We suspect Snap’s new AR glasses are unlikely to compete with the Meta glasses in terms of mass adoption, as Meta’s are half the cost, if not cheaper.
Evan Spiegel showing off the new Specs AR glasses to the public for the first time. pic.twitter.com/pCYBLU9xxH
“Earlier today, Evan Spiegel hosted a keynote presentation regarding the Fall ’26 SPECS product release; while not entirely unsurprising, premium price point ($2,195) implies product built for ‘early adopters’, disappointing after a 10yr dev cycle,” Wells Fargo tech analyst Alec Brondolo wrote in a note.
Brondolo’s first take on the new AR glasses:
SNAP announces a $2,195 price point for SPECS; to feature 51-degree field of view and four-hour battery life. While Specs price point compares favorably to HoloLens 2 & Vision Pro (both $3,500), it still positions the product with an ‘early tech adopter’ value prop, disappointing given the length of the dev cycle. Product compares favorably to META Orion prototype from our perspective; field of view smaller (Orion 70 degrees) but unlike META Orion, SPECS doesn’t require a ‘puck’ compute device.
Value proposition to focus on real-world utility; application layer to be driven by a third-party developer ecosystem. While several use cases were demo’d, we believe SPECS value prop to focus heavily on real-world utility (cooking, auto repair, training for sports, etc.). Snap envisions a robust third-party developer ecosystem, supported by agentic coding, will build experiences on Snap OS. Snap did not make SPECS available for product demos on the floor of the Augmented World Expo conference.
Not anticipating SPECS to materialize as a meaningful near-term financial driver. We believe 100k units is a ‘stretch goal’ for the first generation of SPECS, implying $220M of revenue. Assuming 3yrs b/w generations, that further implies $75M of revs / year, or 1% accretion vs. SNAP 2026 consensus revenue; user base likely too small to monetize meaningfully in ads or subscriptions over the near term. While NT revenue pot’l limited, we do believe SPECS will be gross margin positive
In a separate note, Citizens analyst Andrew Boone said Snap’s new glasses told clients, “Appears bulky and more akin to Apple’s Vision Pro glasses than Meta’s Meta Ray-Ban Display from a fashion perspective.”
Boone described the new glasses as “more of a developer kit than a consumer product, as it is priced at $2,195.”
B. Riley Securities analyst Naved Khan said, “While initial adoption is likely to be limited by the relatively high unit price ($2,195), we expect management will use the launch to further improve the product, with successive models becoming more affordable.”
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh noted, “Snap’s further expansion into hardware with new AR glasses priced at around $2,195 is unlikely to match adoption of Meta’s Ray-Ban AR glasses,” adding, “The latter’s lower price point and proprietary large language model give it an advantage for deploying image generation and voice integration features, while Snap is likely to struggle to create an app ecosystem and agentic functionality.”
Snap’s release of its new AR glasses comes as Apple pushes deeper into smart glasses following the Vision Pro’s failed launch. We have remained adamant that Meta is winning this race, with Ray-Ban smart glasses emerging as the clearest early consumer winner because of their price point. We have also explored the supply chain behind Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses, which readers can revisit here.
US-Iran Deal Signing Could Come As Early As Today: Report
Summary:
MoU signing could be As Early As Today
Trump Says Will “Drop Bombs” If Bad Final Deal
14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Released, Set For Friday Signing
Talk of Accelerated MoU Signing Timeline
Axios reports that US, Iranian, and mediator officials are discussing an accelerated timeline for signing the memorandum of understanding, moving it from Friday to as early as Wednesday, potentially via electronic signature.
More from Axios:
The diplomatic source said the discussions around accelerating the timetable were intended to open the strait of Hormuz sooner than Friday, as both parties were in agreement on that issue.
Another factor could be the political pressure on the White House to release the text of the MOU.
The source familiar with the discussions claimed it was Iran that demanded the text not be published until the formal signing, and denied the White House was responding to political pressure.
Even if the electronic signing occurs early, Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf are still expected to meet on Friday in Switzerland to launch multi-month talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
The takeaway here is that both sides appear aligned on quickly reopening the Hormuz chokepoint, as the world faces an energy cliff.
Watch Trump
President Trump is set to hold a very important press conference at the conclusion of the G7 summit in France.
Trump Tells Reporters At G7: We’ll “Go Back To Dropping Bombs” if he Doesn’t Like Final Deal
President Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France that the pending U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is “not final” and warned that if he “doesn’t like it … we’ll go back to shooting at them.”
“If I don’t like it [MoU], we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head,” Trump said.
Trump repeated: “If they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.”
He added, “Because they misbehaved for 47 years. But nobody could’ve made this deal. The Obama-era JCPOA handed them $1.7 billion and gave them hundreds of millions of dollars in a Boeing 757. He tried to bribe his way out. I did not do that.”
BREAKING: “If I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”
President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.
The proposed deal, expected to be signed on Friday in Geneva, would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and create a framework for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Set For Friday Signing
With US and Iranian officials preparing to formally sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, the conflict is entering the much-needed diplomatic phase to avert a potentially disastrous energy cliff. The MoU would open a 60-day negotiating window aimed at ending the war, restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and hammering out the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
Bloomberg published the text of the 14-point draft MoU, offering the clearest look yet at the proposed trade: de-escalation and sanctions relief for Iran, in exchange for a ceasefire across all fronts, commitments on shipping access, and a broader nuclear deal to be finalized by the end of summer.
But Iran’s Tasnim news agency cited an unnamed official earlier today, saying some of the MoU published by Bloomberg is inaccurate. The report did not specify the discrepancies. Bloomberg noted that some of the wording could be different between the English and Persian versions.
Below is the text of the 14-point draft MoU:
1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs
3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent
4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement
5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council
Based on the text above, the first take of the MoU appears to be front-loaded economic relief for Tehran in exchange for a ceasefire, a nuclear freeze, and commitments to negotiate hard topics, such as the nuclear program, at a later date.
Who Stands To Benefit:
Tehran benefits most directly because it gets economic oxygen, oil waivers, frozen funds, sanctions relief language, and reduced US military pressure in the region.
Hezbollah and Iran-aligned actors also benefit if “all fronts, including Lebanon” locks in a ceasefire that constrains Israeli operations.
And, of course, the global economy because global shippers benefit if Hormuz reopens and war risk premiums in crude oil collapse.
The Gulf states benefit if the conflict ends because energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. A report on Tuesday said that QatarEnergy was planning to ramp up LNG production in the coming months.
Where is Leverage Lost:
The US loses some coercive leverage once the Hormuz blockade ends, oil waivers are granted, and asset-release mechanisms begin.
Israel loses freedom of action if the agreement binds the Lebanon front and limits further strikes.
Sanctions and hawks lose leverage because the draft moves quickly toward broad sanctions dismantlement.
The urgency behind the MoU and locking in peace talks for 60 days, with a formal signing event at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland on Friday, stems mainly from the world being headed for an energy cliff, as SPRs globally were being drained to offset the loss of Gulf production with the Hormuz chokepoint shuttered. Brent crude futures edged down overnight, trading around $79 a barrel on Wednesday morning.
One of the biggest uncertainties remains the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated that the critical waterway will reopen permanently and be toll-free, but the MoU suggests the toll-free arrangement may only last through the 60-day negotiation period. Another major uncertainty is Tehran’s compliance.
Most Important Overnight Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Deal Framework
• The US and Iran plan to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending the war and limiting Iran’s nuclear program
• Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the tentative deal is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement
• Iran is set to receive broad financial incentives including the right to sell oil immediately, access to a $300 billion development fund, and eventual access to frozen assets
• The US would secure at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran after the war under the accord Web Content – US 6:43 AM
• The memorandum states only that Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium be ‘adequately addressed,’ leaving unresolved the fate of enough material to fuel multiple weapons
International Reactions
• Senate Republicans are pressing the Trump administration for details on the deal and signaled Congress will ultimately vote on the final agreement
• European officials are wary of committing naval ships to clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz because of confusion about how the work would be done and Trump’s strict end-of-week timeline
• China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for greater international support for the next phase of Iran-US peace talks on Tuesday, cautioning that the interim agreement marks only the beginning of a longer peace process
• European allies disagree with Trump’s optimism that trade can resume by week’s end and have practical questions about what was agreed before committing to de-mining missions
Shipping and Energy Markets
• A third fully-loaded crude tanker, the Suezmax Sonia I capable of hauling about 1 million barrels, left the Iranian port of Chabahar on Tuesday night and crossed the US blockade line heading toward Singapore
• Two oil tankers heading toward Africa U-turned in the Indian Ocean this week, switching destinations to the Middle East as shipowners race to re-position vessels ahead of the possible Strait of Hormuz reopening
• Qatar is beginning to bring some of its LNG tankers back to the Middle East, with at least four empty vessels recently heading toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction
• Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in more than three months as the US-Iran deal boosted expectations for a revival in supply
• The prediction market Kalshi assigns a 51% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August 1 and a 68% probability before September 1
Oil Market Impact
• The IEA said world oil consumption will slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, the biggest drop since the Covid pandemic in 2020, as higher fuel prices and disruptions curb buying
• The IEA previously expected a decline of about 420,000 barrels a day, making the revised forecast much deeper than anticipated
• A potential peace deal paves the way for a renewed supply glut in 2027, according to the IEA
Clinton quickly endorsed Harris, Biden’s chosen successor, after he exited the race later that summer.
“Here’s what I know: We need to defeat Donald Trump. We need to elect Kamala Harris,” Clinton wrote on Sept. 10, 2024.
Adding to her rebuke on Monday, Clinton said that a different Democratic nominee “would have beaten Donald Trump” if the party had a competitive race.
“I think it was a terrible miscalculation on the part of President Biden,” Clinton continued.
She further suggested the nominee could have been Harris, a governor or a senator. She also said Biden triggered a “terrible dilemma” after he claimed he had never signaled in 2020 that he would be a one-term president.
Her comments come as Biden and former first lady Jill Biden expand their longshot efforts to defend their political legacy amid criticism from Democrats who blame the Bidens for propelling Trump’s grand return to power in 2025.
Biden exited the race only after mounting pressure within his own party following his disastrous performance in the first debate with Trump.
Outlets like Headline USA had long covered the evidence of Biden’s cognitive decline throughout his presidency.
By contrast, Legacy media organizations and Clinton herself downplayed or shielded him from scrutiny.
