Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, has freshly warned in newly published comments that oil sanctions will have a serious and hard-hitting economic impact if properly enforced – though they haven’t been up till now, he suggested.

His prediction comes after President Trump’s announcement early this week that he would shorten Russia’s deadline to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine down to ten days from the previous 50. “We haven’t really applied full pressure on the oil sector yet,” Kellogg said on The Record With Greta Van Susteren.

“Russia’s a petrostate, exporting around 7 million barrels of oil daily, much of it through what’s called the ‘dark fleet,’” he continued.

Noting that India and China remain Russia’s two biggest oil customers, he described that the revenue from these exports helps finance the war in Ukraine and fund “huge bonuses” for soldiers being recruited as Russia expends manpower in a war of attrition.

The proposed sanctions, including 100% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, will “start to bite”…

“If that happens—and if Russian oligarchs start seeing the effects, especially with Russian sovereign assets largely held in Belgium—Putin will start feeling the pressure not just from within his military, but also from the oligarchs and internally,” Kellogg said.

He gaged the current level of sanctions as moderate, rating them at about “six out of ten” while admitting that enforcement remains weak, which he put at a “three out of ten.”

Kellog called for strengthening enforcement if Washington hopes to make the sanctions more effective.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has shrugged off these new threats and Trump’s revised timeline, which is clearly aimed at drastically ratcheting the pressure on Moscow.

“We’ve taken note of President Trump’s statement,” Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday. “The special military operation continues.”

He added, “We remain committed to a peace process to resolve the conflict around Ukraine while safeguarding our national interests.”

You will find more infographics at Statista

As for what’s next after US new secondary sanctions are activated – probably little will change, at least initially. Russia has been able to weather the sanctions storm fairly well, while deepening its economic relations with major BRICS countries, and its ground advance in Ukraine east – and even into Sumy lately – has shown no signs of stopping. At home, store shelves are full, and average Russian citizens have been living their daily lives with little perceptible change in circumstances.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It’s reshaping Indian policymakers’ views of the West and breeding resentment of their governments among its society…

India’s former Permanent Representative to the UN Syed Akbaruddin recently published an informative opinion piece at NDTV titled “Tariff Blitz: Is India Becoming Collateral Damage In Someone Else’s War?”

The gist is that the West, via Trump’s threatened 100% sanctions on Russia’s trading partners upon the expiry of his deadline to Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine and the EU via its new sanctions barring the import of processed Russian oil products from third countries, is putting undue pressure on India.

They can’t defeat Russia on the battlefield by proxy, nor will they risk World War III by taking it on directly, so they’re going after its foreign trade partners in the hopes of eventually bankrupting the Kremlin.

This is counterproductive though since their threatened sanctions could torpedo bilateral ties, push India closer to China and Russia (thus possibly reviving the RIC core of BRICS and the SCO), and spike global oil prices, which hitherto remained manageable due to India’s massive imports from Russia.

Nevertheless, partial compliance is also possible due to the damage that Western sanctions could inflict on the Indian economy, so it can’t be ruled out that India might curtail its aforesaid imports and no longer export processed Russian oil products to the EU.

Full compliance is unlikely though since India would risk ruining its ties with Russia, with all that could entail as was touched upon here, while reducing its economic growth rate through higher energy prices and thus offsetting its envisaged Great Power rise.

Even in the scenario of partial compliance, however, Western pressure on India over Russia already backfired.

Their coercive threats and the very real consequences for no compliance whatsoever, presuming that exceptions can be made for partial compliance, are reshaping Indian policymakers’ views of the West and breeding resentment of their governments among its society. The “good ‘ole days” of naively assuming that the West operated in good faith and was India’s true friend will never return.

This is for the better from the perspective of India’s objective national interests since it’s more useful to have finally realized the truth than to keep having illusions about the West’s intentions and formulating policy based on that false perception. Conversely, this is for the worse from the perspective of the West’s hegemonic interests since their policymakers can no longer take for granted that India will naively go along with whatever they request and blindly trust its intentions. This new dynamic might lead to rivalry.

To be clear, India’s envisaged Great Power rise doesn’t pose a systemic challenge to the West like China’s superpower trajectory does, nor is it “disruptive” like the restoration of Russia’s Great Power status has been. India consistently sought to facilitate the global systemic transition to multipolarity by serving as a bridge between East and West, which complements the West’s objective interests, albeit while undermining its subjective hegemonic ones that are responsible for many of the Global South’s troubles.

Trying to subordinate India and then treating it as a rival when it doesn’t submit could therefore further destabilize this already chaotic transition, thus possibly leading to unforeseeable consequences that accelerate the decline of Western hegemony more than if the West treated India as an equal.

Pressuring India even more and then punishing it for lack of full compliance with their demands will only hasten this outcome. It’s unlikely to succeed in getting India to submit to them so they should abandon this policy.

It would seem that mass deportations in the name of national security is not an issue limited to western countries.  Over the past few weeks Iran has drawn the attention of the UN and a number of humanitarian NGOs after initiated a nationwide program to remove all Afghan migrants without proper legal documentation from their borders, relocating them back to Afghanistan. 

Nearly 1 million migrants have been deported in the past month alone according to estimates by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni.  That’s around half of the 2 million Afghans currently residing in the country.  Iran’s government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani stated at the beginning of the relocation effort:

“We’ve always striven to be good hosts, but national security is a priority.” 

The deportations are a response to detrimental intelligence leaks and acts of sabotage within Iran during recent conflict with Israel.  Iranian authorities report the capture of a number of Afghan refugees involved in the transportation and piloting of drones, the gathering of sensitive intelligence and the planting of bombs.  They assert that migrants are easier for the Israelis to bribe.

In a well-publicized case, Iranian authorities in the city of Rey arrested an Afghan university student accusing him of links to the Mossad and alleging he was caught in possession of sensitive material on bomb-making, drone mechanics and surveillance operations. 

State television aired reports of arrested Afghan citizens “confessing” to being Israeli agents.  In one such report, broadcast on June 26, showed the questioning of several suspects, mostly Afghans, being accused of plotting to bomb a power station in southeast Tehran.

It is possible that the mass deportations represent nothing more than an effort to divert blame for Iranian intelligence failures onto a convenient scapegoat.  However, migrant groups have historically been easy targets for manipulation and conversion by foreign enemies and Iran’s caution is a logical response.  Open borders have long been used by intelligence agencies as a means to plant “sleeper agents” within nations they plan to go to war with.

For example, several Iranians have been recently apprehended trying to sneak across the US border, some of them with national security ties.  

The Taliban government has urged Iran to stop the exodus, calling for a gradual process instead.  Taliban officials say the dignity of the migrants must be respected, though, it is likely that the Afghan economy could be crippled by a surge of a million or more refugees in such a short span of time and the Taliban have limited means of humanitarian support.

Afghanistan maintains a number of restrictions on foreign aid groups seeking to operate within the country.  The UN has also accused the Taliban of “serious abuses” against returning migrants, including cases of torture, mistreatment and arbitrary arrest and detention targeting women, media workers, civil society members as well as individuals affiliated with the former government that fell in 2021.

While education of women is common in Iran, it is strictly prohibited in Afghanistan under the Taliban.  Women refugees returning to the country after years or decades in Iran are likely to experience a cultural shock.

Iran’s deportations have been escalating since 2023, with the government citing not just national security issues, but also economic strain.  As with any other country, it is not their responsibility to take on the economic, cultural and strategic risks associated with mass immigration.     

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration has made a move to address homelessness with an executive order to bring back facilities to house those with mental illness or drug addiction.

President Donald Trump issued a July 24 executive order titled “Ending Crime and Disorder on America’s Streets.”

The administration says that chronic homelessness is often fueled by addiction and mental illness, which has led to safety concerns in many cities.

The White House stated that during the last administration, a record of more than 274,000 individuals were found to be experiencing homelessness.

The order pushes local governments to redirect the homeless to “long-term institutional settings for humane treatment through the appropriate use of civil commitment.”

Cabinet heads have been instructed to prioritize funding to cities that work to abolish open drug use and camping on the streets.

The Executive Order 

Trump’s order tasks Attorney General Pam Bondi and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. to seek the reversal of any policy at the federal, state, or local level that blocks the commitment of those with mental incapacity or addiction who are living on the streets to “appropriate facilities for appropriate periods of time.”

The order also redirects funds to rehabilitation and treatment facilities, and attempts to “restore public order,” saying “endemic vagrancy, disorderly behavior, sudden confrontations, and violent attacks have made our cities unsafe.”

Trump has called for a shift back toward long-term institutional care, saying that this is a more compassionate and safe solution for both the homeless and the individuals they interact with in U.S. cities.

The order also directs federal resources toward grants and other programs to not only fund the facilities to house the homeless, but also to ensure grant money for substance use disorder prevention, treatment, and recovery only funds “evidence-based programs.”

Order’s Critics

Some critics of the order say the administration’s efforts would be counterproductive.

The National Homelessness Law Center issued a statement the day the order was signed, saying it “deprives people of their basic rights and makes it harder to solve homelessness.”

Areas of concern for the group include the expanded use of police and institutionalization as a response to homelessness, as well as the prioritization of funding for states to deal with homelessness as a crime. According to the group, the way the order is structured, it will also cut off funding for current programs that the group believes save lives and reduce harm. 

“Today’s executive order, combined with MAGA’s budget cuts for housing and healthcare, will increase the number of people forced to live in tents, in their cars, and on the streets,” the law center warned.

“This order does nothing to lower the cost of housing or help people make ends meet.”

The group said, “Forced treatment is unethical, ineffective, and illegal.”

According to the National Coalition for the Homeless, the two current primary contributors to the homelessness crisis are the lack of affordable housing and limited government-funded housing assistance programs.

Historical Context: Deinstitutionalization 

The historic use of institutions and asylums for those who were not able to function well in society went by the wayside in the mid-20th century due, in part, to overcrowding and underfunding.

That mixture contributed to widespread abuse suffered by residents, which led to further reform.

Later, advances in drug treatment for psychiatric care, along with financial pressures and legal changes, led to activism that pushed forward the first wave of deinstitutionalization in the 1950s and 1960s.

Under the Kennedy administration, the 1963 Community Mental Health Act was signed, which promoted smaller community health centers in place of large institutions, but the funding for those centers was insufficient in the long term. 

Later, a second push targeted removing those with developmental disabilities from such facilities in the late 1960s and 1970s. 

However, without community services to meet the demand for those mentally ill or mentally challenged, those who were previously in institutions frequently found themselves without homes, particularly in urban areas. 

Between 1980 and 2000, many individuals with mental illnesses who had previously been in psychiatric institutions began to enter the criminal justice system instead—a shift known as transinstitutionalization. This trend alone is estimated to have contributed to a 4 to 7 percent increase in the overall incarceration rate during that period.

Last year, the Supreme Court ruled that cities are allowed to hand out fines or jail time for the homeless who sleep outside. It overturned an appeals court ruling that found such policies violated the Constitution if there was not enough publicly available shelter for the city’s homeless population.

Unitree Robotics, China’s dominant robot company, is turning heads with the release of its new humanoid that can fist-fight and perform cartwheels – capabilities that represent a direct challenge to Elon Musk’s ambitions of establishing Tesla’s Optimus as the world’s leading humanoid robot.

The Unitree Robotics R1, weighing 55 pounds and equipped with 26 joints for fluid movement, showcases advanced capabilities like cartwheels, spin-kicks, and a “kip-up” maneuver, transitioning from a supine position to standing without using its hands, as demonstrated in a recent video released by the company.

Unitree Introducing | Unitree R1 Intelligent Companion Price from $5900
Join us to develop/customize, ultra-lightweight at approximately 25kg, integrated with a Large Multimodal Model for voice and images, let’s accelerate the advent of the agent era!🥰 pic.twitter.com/Q5pmkfFZZa

— Unitree (@UnitreeRobotics) July 25, 2025

The R1’s launch directly challenges Elon Musk’s vision for Tesla’s Optimus, which aims to lead the global humanoid robotics market. Musk has outlined ambitious plans, predicting in January that Tesla could produce “several thousand” Optimus robots this year for internal factory use, with goals to scale to 50,000–100,000 units in 2026 and achieve a tenfold increase the following year. However, reports from Taiwan’s Digitimes suggest Tesla’s Optimus faces production delays due to a redesign, with unnamed Chinese supply chain sources indicating ongoing refinements to key components before mass production can resume.

The humanoid robotics market could see explosive growth, with projections estimating a $5 trillion industry by 2050, encompassing supply chains, maintenance, and support networks. Morgan Stanely analysts anticipate adoption will surge in the late 2030s, driven by technological advancements and increasing regulatory and societal acceptance.

By 2050, over 1 billion humanoids could be in use, with 90% deployed in industrial and commercial roles. Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, an early backer of OpenAI, has predicted a ChatGPT-like breakthrough in robotics within two to three years, envisioning adaptable humanoids capable of tasks like chopping vegetables or washing dishes.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

It has been said that there is no cure for crazy.  If that is actually true, we are in all sorts of trouble.  When I was growing up, the crazy people were on the fringes of our society.  Today, it is the normal people that have been pushed to the fringes of our society.  If you think that I am exaggerating, just look around you.  Much of the population is literally behaving like maniacs.  We all laughed when “Idiocracy” was released in theaters in 2006 because it was so absurd, but in retrospect that film was essentially a warning about what would soon be coming.  Over the past 20 years, our society has been turned totally upside down.  The lunatics are running the asylum, and many of them are lashing out in wild and unpredictable ways.

If you think that I am being too harsh, please read the rest of this article.  I truly wish that I was exaggerating, but I am not.  The following are 10 examples that show that our society is going completely insane…

#1 Would you join a “scream club”?.  In Chicago, a very large group of liberals meets even Sunday evening at 7 PM to scream their heads off…

Scream Club Chicago has found an unorthodox way to let off some steam and make life a little easier.

The group meets on the North Avenue Beach pier every Sunday at 7 p.m., where they breathe deeply and collectively scream into the open air over Lake Michigan.

The group was started by Manny Hernande, a breathwork coach who was looking for an outlet to deal with stress. He invited others to join him in the screaming ritual on social media. Now the weekly therapy session are growing in popularity.

#2 In America today, the violent lunatic walking next to you could snap at any moment.  At a Walmart in Michigan, a man that was shopping in the grocery section suddenly pulled out a knife and started stabbing people…

“It was a guy with a knife — people were screaming and running in all directions,” said Tasha Nash, a Walmart employee. “I saw someone stabbed in the eye.”

Amber Paull, another shopper, described the assailant as a foreign man who “just lost it” and began randomly attacking people in the produce and grocery section. “An African American man pulled a hero move — he drew his pistol and tried to stop the attacker,” Paull said. “But then people started screaming, and the suspect managed to slip back into the crowd.”

#3 There are more than half a million victims of child abuse in the United States.  A recent case in Florida was particularly horrifying…

Four adults were arrested after being accused of abusing nine children in their Florida home by caging them with plywood under a bunk bed and spraying them in the face with vinegar as a form of punishment, authorities said Friday.

Husband and wife Brian and Jill Griffeth, along with 21-year-old Dallin and 19-year-old Liberty Griffeth, were arrested and charged with aggravated child abuse, the Columbia County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement Friday.

The four adults are suspected of abusing five biological and four adopted children — ages 7 to 16 — at their home in Fort White, Florida, roughly 35 miles northwest of Gainesville, the sheriff’s office said.

#4 Some school districts are now paying kids to come to school because chronic absenteeism has become so pervasive…

Educators are trying to incentivize students to come to school, with some districts even paying students for their attendance.

Others have encouraged teachers to have attendance count towards grades or limit the number of assignments that can be completed online, The Boston Globe reports.

Twenty states reported that more than 30 percent of their students missed at least three weeks of school in 2022-23, according to latest figures from the DoE.

#5 Mad scientists feel like they have the right to “play God” without our permission.  For example, not too long ago a group of mad scientists on the west coast attempted to conduct an unauthorized geoengineering experiment in San Francisco Bay which was intended to dim the sun…

The details outlined in funding requests, emails, texts and other records obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News raise new questions about a secretive billionaire-backed initiative that oversaw last year’s brief solar geoengineering experiment on the San Francisco Bay.

They also offer a rare glimpse into the vast scope of research aimed at finding ways to counter the Earth’s warming, work that has often occurred outside public view. Such research is drawing increased interest at a time when efforts to address the root cause of climate change — burning fossil fuels — are facing setbacks in the U.S. and Europe. But the notion of human tinkering with the weather and climate has drawn a political backlash and generated conspiracy theories, adding to the challenges of mounting even small-scale tests.

Last year’s experiment, led by the University of Washington and intended to run for months, lasted about 20 minutes before being shut down by Alameda city officials who objected that nobody had told them about it beforehand.

#6 It is being projected that Canada will euthanize 15 million of their own citizens by 2047, and the U.S. is heading down the exact same path…

In a recent video, Kelsi Sheren, a Canadian combat veteran, host of The Kelsi Sheren Perspective, and an outspoken opponent of Canada’s Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) policies, shared how Canada’s government-controlled healthcare system plans to euthanize an estimated 15 million Canadians between 2027 and 2047, a staggering figure justified under the pretext of cost savings.

While doctor-assisted suicide in the U.S. has not yet reached the alarming extremes observed in Canada, the “death with dignity” movement is actively attempting to change that. Pending Governor Hochul’s signature on New York’s recently passed bill, 11 states and Washington, D.C., will permit this abhorrent and immoral practice.

#7 Often some of the worst crimes are happening in some of the wealthiest neighborhoods.  For instance, somehow a wealthy Chinese couple in Los Angeles was able to collect and abuse 21 children before authorities finally caught on to them…

A house in an upmarket Los Angeles city was raided by the FBI, leading authorities to rescue 21 small children, many of whom had allegedly been subject to abuse.

Guojun Xuan, 65, and Silvia Zhang, 38, were initially arrested in May under suspicion of felony child endangerment and neglect, after a 2-month-old baby in their care was brought to a local hospital with a traumatic brain injury.

Doctors realized the injuries had occurred around two days previously, sparking a police investigation.

#8 Major cities all over the nation are becoming rotting, decaying hellholes.  Can you guess which large American city is being described in these paragraphs?…

Speaking at a public Board of Police Commissioners meeting on Tuesday, local man Frank Sereno said he was concerned about the levels of crime.

According to KMBC, he said: ‘Property crimes, stolen vehicles, teens running through the neighborhood, armed, shooting firearms’.

‘These are not innocent petty crimes. These are very violent individuals who are out to do harm to us. And we’re tired of it happening,’ he added.

It isn’t Los Angeles.

It isn’t San Francisco.

It isn’t New York City.

It isn’t Chicago.

The city being described in those paragraphs is actually Kansas City.

I am old enough to remember when Kansas City was still a very civilized place.

#9 The experts are now admitting that more than a quarter of our population is mentally ill.  According to Johns Hopkins, approximately 26 percent of all Americans suffer from ” a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year”…

• Mental health disorders account for several of the top causes of disability in established market economies, such as the U.S., worldwide, and include: major depression (also called clinical depression), manic depression (also called bipolar disorder), schizophrenia, and obsessive-compulsive disorder.

• An estimated 26% of Americans ages 18 and older — about 1 in 4 adults — suffers from a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year.

• Many people suffer from more than one mental disorder at a given time. In particular, depressive illnesses tend to co-occur with substance use and anxiety disorders.

• Approximately 9.5% of American adults ages 18 and over, will suffer from a depressive illness (major depression, bipolar disorder, or dysthymia) each year.

#10 These days, many Americans are actually “romanticizing the apocalypse” simply because they want all of the madness to finally end…

If you could turn back the clock and have America go back to the way that it was in the 1950s and 1960s, would you do it?

Even though we would have to give up our electronic gadgets and a lot of our modern conveniences, a lot of normal people would choose to do that in a heartbeat.

Why?

Because life was so much simpler in those days, and people actually connected with one another.

Today, most people can count their true friends on one hand.

We weren’t designed to stare at screens for 10 hours a day.

And the value of our lives was never meant to be determined by how many “likes” we get on Facebook or Instagram.

Our modern way of life is not healthy.

In fact, it is literally driving many of us insane.

Hopefully we will choose to change direction before it is too late.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

After Google’s strong report last week, there is some optimism that Meta will overachieve as well although as Goldman warned in our preview, caution seems to be prevalent. There is certainly some pressure on the advertising business to keep chugging along given how much Zuckerberg is spending on AI these days.

Which brings us to CapEx: as Bloomberg’s Kurt Wagner writes, he will be looking for any changes to Meta’s projected range for capital expenditures for the year, which is currently $64 billion to $72 billion. The company increased its CapEx range in April, citing the global trade disputes and its AI effort. Since then we’ve seen Zuckerberg invest more than $14 billion in Scale AI, throw nine-figure compensation packages at AI researchers, and talk about building multi-gigawatt data centers. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if this number moves higher, but it was ridiculously high to begin with.

And sure enough it did, because moments ago META reported results that blew away expectations for the second quarter and gave a stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue and full-year capex forecast, a sign the core advertising business is still growing quickly enough to support aggressive spending on artificial intelligence. Here is the breakdown:

• Revenue $47.52 billion, +22% y/y, beating estimate $44.83 billion 
  • Advertising rev. $46.56 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $44.07 billion
  • Family of Apps revenue $47.15 billion, +22% y/y, beating estimate $44.4 billion
  • Reality Labs revenue $370 million, +4.8% y/y, beating estimate $386 million
  • Other revenue $583 million, +50% y/y, beating estimate $500.6 million
     
• Operating income $20.44 billion, +38% y/y, beating estimate $17.24 billion
  • Family of Apps operating income $24.97 billion, +29% y/y, beating estimate $22.16 billion
  • Reality Labs operating loss $4.53 billion, +0.9% y/y, better than the estimated loss $4.86 billion
  • Operating margin 43% vs. 38% y/y, beating estimate 38.3%
     
• EPS $7.14 vs. $5.16 y/y, smashing estimate $5.89

Here is a visual recap of the results:

Other metrics:

• Ad impressions +11% vs. +10% y/y, estimate +6.91%
• Average price per ad +9% vs. +10% y/y, estimate +7.58%
• Average Family service users per day 3.48 billion, +6.4% y/y, estimate 3.42 billion

According to META, its “family daily active people” metrics, whatever that is, hit a new record high of 3.48 billion per day, up 6% YoY, and beating estimate 3.42 billion. Because literally half the world is on Facebook every day, sure it is. 

Outlook:

• META expects Q3 2025 total revenue to be in the range of $47.5-50.5 billion, higher than the average analyst estimate of $46.2 billion. The company said that while it is “not providing an outlook for fourth quarter revenue, we would expect our year-over-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be slower than the third quarter as we lap a period of stronger growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.”
• The company also said that full-year 2025 total expenses will be in the range of $114-118 billion, higher than the prior outlook of $113-118 billion and reflecting a growth rate of 20-24% year-over-year. META also said it sees 2026 year-over-year expense growth to be above 2025, and cited infrastructure costs and, obviously, employee compensation which is to be expected in light of anecdotes it is paying $100MM guarantees to AI scientists. 
• Looking at the all important CapEx, META said it expects 2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $66-72 billion, also higher from the previous estimate of $64-72 billion and up a stunning $30 billion year-over-year at the mid-point. The company said that it “currently expects another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026 as we continue aggressively pursuing opportunities to bring additional capacity online to meet the needs of our artificial intelligence efforts and business operations.”

And a word of caution in the CFO commentary as we look ahead to the holiday quarter: 

“While we are not providing an outlook for fourth quarter revenue, we would expect our year-over-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be slower than the third quarter as we lap a period of stronger growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.”

That however was hardly relevant to investors who saw the numbers and just couldn’t wait to get in, and the result is that the stock is now trading up10% to $770, a new all time high.

Investor presentation below

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

As I observe the seemingly endless narratives of ongoing and future wars, traitorous machinations of Deep State snakes, curious “assassination” plots, BBB legislation designed to set the stage for financial Armageddon, and the coverup of a global pedophile network implicating the ruling elite, I can’t help but be reminded of Shakespeare’s assertion the world is a stage and we are all merely bit players in this tragedy disguised as a comedy. Based on what I’ve witnessed over the last several months, I would change the line to “the world is staged”. This really came into focus during the Israel – Iran dustup several weeks ago. The entire episode had a theatrical vibe to it, with Israel assassinating key military leaders and the top nuclear scientists of Iran, while both sides launched missiles at each other for a week or so.

What passes for war these days is now missiles and drones lighting up the sky for TV cameras while inflicting relatively moderate damage and few casualties. Only Putin seems to understand wars are won on the ground, with armies destroying the enemy in brutal bloody combat. Israel appears to have been tasked with lighting the fuse on this Fourth Turning powder-keg of religious hate, neo-con retribution, globalist new world order schemes, Deep State machinations, and an empire of debt, delusion, and degradation in its death throes.

Did Trump know Netanyahu was going to launch a surprise attack on Iran, knowing he lacked the firepower to eliminate their underground nuclear facilities? Or was Trump fully onboard with the plan to distract Iran with fake negotiations, so they would let their guard down? In either case, Netanyahu is calling the shots and Trump has been doing his bidding. Trump, the self-proclaimed peace president, has misled those of us who believed he wanted to end the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.

When Israel began getting pummeled by Iranian hypersonic missiles, proving their Iron Dome wasn’t living up to its hype, Netanyahu knew he could appeal to Trump’s vanity to save the day by using our bunker busters on the underground nuclear facilities. Israel knew they couldn’t take out those facilities but started the war anyway. Their plan all along was to have Trump do the dirty work. The question is whether Trump was in on it all along or forced into it by Bibi’s puppet master machinations.

Everything seemed to be staged once the U.S. entered the fray. The U.S. alerted the Iranians their three underground facilities were going to be obliterated. The Iranians then warned the U.S. about their token retaliatory attack on our Qatar air base. And then an arranged cease fire the next day. When do enemies warn each other about coming attacks, inflict no casualties, and already have a cease fire pre-arranged? When it is nothing but a show.

A cease fire is not the end of hostilities. Israel is rearming with the help of their good buddy Trump and his military industrial complex cronies. Iran is rearming with the help of Russia, China and North Korea. The lull in hostilities will be broken by Israel, as they continue their Gaza genocide, with nary a peep from their bought off swamp creatures in DC and have turned their sites on obliterating Syria as part of their Greater Israel master plan.

Netanyahu will stop at nothing to instigate a WW3 scenario with Iran, creating the conditions which would “force” Trump to engage our military, compelling Russia, China, Turkey and the rest of the Middle East to become involved. The masses have been lulled back to sleep with the Epstein and Obama narratives being flogged by our overlords, but a Middle East and possibly global conflagration is only a few missteps or miscalculations away.

We are now in the 17th year of this Fourth Turning, with a likely climax before 2032. Based on a very limited sample of three previous Crisis periods in American history, we would expect a major war or wars, with unthinkable destruction and death. With the technological “advancements” in warfare this destruction and death could be unleashed in an instant. But no one seems worried or concerned with this outcome, as the EU, with the military backing of the U.S., continues to provoke Putin into responding in a way that will ignite WW3.

The rationale for this insane strategy is to distract their enraged citizens from the fact they have encouraged a Muslim invasion which has destroyed the social fabric of their nations and destroyed the financial health of their states. As always, when politicians have created domestic chaos by their reckless blunders, they seek a foreign bogeyman as a dire threat in order to rally the people to their side.

The three stooges: Macron, Merz and Starmer, with the orchestrator of lies and propaganda – Ursula von der Leyen – continue to financially and militarily support the corrupt Ukrainian cokehead even after the war has already been won by Putin’s armies the old-fashioned way, by destroying the enemy’s armies, industrial capacity, logistical hubs, and energy infrastructure. Of course, the peacemaker, Trump, who was going to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, tells the American public he is no longer arming the midget dictator/actor, while selling the arms to the EU so they can give them to the Ukrainian “hero”. The grift runs deep, with the U.S. military industrial complex reaping riches, which are dispensed to corrupt congress critters, and foreign leaders. Zelensky and his totalitarian regime skim billions from the “aid” they receive, as they bleed their nation dry in a fruitless effort to stop Putin at the behest of their overlords.

Very few people can comprehend the potential loss of life in the coming Fourth Turning wars. Since they only happen every 80 years or so, those who experienced the death and destruction have passed into the great beyond. About 5% of the entire adult white male population were killed, with another 4% wounded, during the American Civil War. An equivalent loss today would be 5 million dead and 4 million wounded. Approximately 75 million people died, with tens of millions wounded during WW2. This death toll was about 3.2% of the global population. An equivalent death toll today would be 250 million.

This level of death is incomprehensible to the indoctrinated ignorant masses, staring at their igadgets, rooting for their sports teams, going further into debt buying shit they don’t need with money they don’t have, eating toxic manufactured corporate foodstuff, and oblivious to history. Technology exists to create and exceed the level of casualties described, and this technology is in the hands of unhinged psychopaths ruling our nations.

Even though Fourth Turnings follow a general pattern of an initial trigger, one or more regeneracies, conflict, and climax, the aspects and specifics will always be different, due to technological advancements, cultural changes, financial dynamics, and the particular traits of the leaders making the crucial decisions during the Crisis. The progression of technology since the American Revolution has increased the ability to kill vast numbers of human beings efficiently and quickly. The level of firepower has probably increased by a factor of one hundred or more as we progressed from the American Revolution Fourth Turning to the Civil War Fourth Turning to the Word War II Fourth Turning to the yet to be named Fourth Turning we are living through today.

Technology has also drastically increased the ability to communicate and coordinate forces during conflict. During the American Revolution and Civil War, armies often stumbled upon each other by accident. Lee’s battle plan was accidentally left on the ground by one of his messengers, letting McClellan prepare for his attack at Antietam. Stonewall Jackson was killed by his own men, because visual scouting was the only reliable method to determine your enemy’s position. World War II saw a huge advancement in communication technology, but glitches often resulted in mass casualties.

The British breaking the German communication codes and the Americans breaking the Japanese codes were crucial in winning that war. The Americans were able to shoot down Yamamoto’s plane because they broke the code. These enhancements also created the opportunity for misinformation. By creating a fake army under Patton and leaking that information to the Germans, they were able to convince them the D-Day landings would be at Calais, rather than Normandy.

We are currently experiencing warfare on multiple fronts, through multiple means, with technology the key factor in conducting this warfare. This technological “progress” has been neither beneficial nor positive for humanity. In fact, it has drastically dehumanized our world and with the onset of AI, could lead to humanity’s demise. Huxley’s prescient warnings from over seven decades ago have come to fruition.

“Advances in technology do not abolish the institution of war; they merely modify its manifestations.” – Aldous Huxley

“Technological progress has merely provided us with more efficient means for going backwards.” – Aldous Huxley

I’ve been speculating whether the advancements in technology could possibly alleviate the level of death and destruction in the looming conflicts. But I believe that is a forlorn hope. War is being waged against the American people and most of the citizens in this world on a daily basis and multiple fronts that did not exist during the previous Fourth Turning. Propaganda did exist prior to the last Fourth Turning, as described by Edward Bernays just before the onset of the Depression/WWII Fourth Turning in his 1928 book – Propaganda:

“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.”

Essentially, he described an early version of the Deep State, as men in the shadows behind the curtain manipulating the masses using whatever means to achieve the ends desired by themselves and their cohorts. This was done inefficiently and haphazardly one hundred years ago using newspapers and radio. But the inception of television, the internet, social media and artificial intelligence laid the groundwork for the perfect Orwellian surveillance and propaganda network, spanning the globe.

The same exact message created by those “invisible government” controllers is delivered on multiple platforms simultaneously to overwhelm the senses and make the masses believe rather than think critically. These technologically powerful propaganda techniques have proven to be incredibly fruitful in manipulating the masses into obeying and following orders.

The covid scam brought to fruition decades of propaganda enhancements and government school indoctrination, convincing billions the annual flu was a lethal pandemic and the only way to survive was to be injected with a toxic experimental Big Pharma enriching gene altering concoction, which did not keep you from getting the flu, spreading the flu, or dying from the flu. But it did kill many instantaneously, continues to cause myocarditis and infertility in young people, has driven the mortality and disability rates for young people higher, and has spiked the number of turbo cancers.

The covid mRNA jab is a depopulation war against humanity being waged by Gates, Soros, and the other globalist psychopaths who constitute a major faction of the invisible government that really calls the shots. They have realized psychological manipulation/warfare against the masses is effortless, efficient, deniable, obscure, and extremely effective in manipulating their opinions without the use of force. This “soft” totalitarian state, enslaving the masses with debt, delusions and debauchery, has successfully navigated our world for decades. Again, Huxley nailed it when describing how the masses would come to love their servitude.

“A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude.” – Aldous Huxley

The war for our souls has been waged in the government-controlled K-12 social indoctrination centers disguised as schools. They teach obedience, feelings over thinking, dependency on their government overlords, and to never question authority. Any child who doesn’t adhere to their doctrines is immediately diagnosed with ADHD and heavily drugged. Female teachers stop at nothing to feminize boys, making them act like girls.

These indoctrinated drones then move onto universities completely controlled by left wing professors and administrators who further indoctrinate them with socialist and communist doctrines. They have won the war for our youth by having matriculated millions of non-thinking, non-questioning, outright morons, who are addicted to their phones, fast food, and porn, into society. The degradation of our moral character as a nation is directly attributable to this war on our youth.

The Epstein Mossad pedophile/blackmail coverup and the unearthing of documents proving an Obama/Clinton treasonous plot to undermine a duly elected president is essentially a war within the Deep State/Invisible Government for control of who dictates how we are going to be controlled. None of this is for the good of the American people. The ruling elite will always protect themselves. Justice and the law are meaningless to them.

The Constitution is an outdated piece of paper in their warped view. We are worthless peasants to them. They will go to war and use us as cannon fodder to keep their treasure chests filled. There will be hearings, accusations, ten thousand articles written, hundreds of Fox News interviews, and conservative influencers will make millions flogging these stories, but no one of substance will be perp walked or spend one minute in prison. It’s a big club, and we ain’t in it.

The anger, vitriol and animosity oozing from the pores of every critical thinking American, Russian, Chinese, and Western European, who can clearly decipher the globalist agenda of creating a new world order, with CBDCs, social credit scores, 15 minute cities, eating meatless meat and bugs, trapped in a 24 hour electronic surveillance gulag, and artificial intelligence weaponized to control us all, will come to a boil once a particular event triggers the chaotic unwind. Keeping the masses distracted and amused by their electronic gadgets, in debt up to their eyeballs, and running faster and faster on their hamster wheels to make a buck that loses value every single day, works as long as the economy and financial markets provide the appearance of stability and growth.

Our glorious leaders had to pass the “big beautiful bill” adding another $3 trillion of debt to the $21 trillion already projected over the next ten years, bringing our future national debt to a nice round $60 trillion by 2035. Their solution to our debt problem is to add an infinite amount of more debt. They believe they can pull off this insane scam because they believe the USD will retain its reserve status forever. But Russia, China and the rest of the BRIC countries may add a dose of reality to that American dream scenario. And that is the main reason for the animosity towards Russia and China exhibited by the neo-cons and Deep Staters who know their American empire is in peril.

In my opinion, the most likely trigger for the more violent phase of this Fourth Turning would be a financial crisis causing a global financial meltdown. With the stock market at all-time highs, bitcoin at all-time highs, low unemployment, positive GDP, and Trump declaring America is great again, there is virtually no “expert” predicting a financial crisis, just like 2007/2008. What the “expert” stock market shills fail to acknowledge is a housing bubble 15% greater than the epic 2006 bubble, leaving home prices 90% above the long-term median. The last bubble burst in 2008/2009 did a bit of financial damage. But this time the commercial real estate market is even far worse than the residential market. Extend and pretend doesn’t work forever. This Jenga tower of debt is teetering.

Both the Fed and their Wall Street owner banks have massive levels of unrealized losses due to purchasing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities when interest rates were close to zero (courtesy of the Fed). The banks currently have $450 billion of unrealized losses, while the Federal Reserve has over $900 billion. If these losses were realized, our entire banking system would be destroyed. They all seem to be in a bit of a pickle, but no one in the MSM, DC, or financial industry says a word. They use the Sergeant Shultz mantra – “I see nothing!!!”. The reality is we are in an extremely risky situation.

Stock market valuations, based on historic measures, have only been higher during the dot.com bubble, and are currently 30% higher than the long-term averages. The shysters, who make their money fleecing the average schmuck, have convinced millions to invest at these all-time highs with narratives about a new paradigm created by AI and crypto-currencies. This time is always different.

It’s almost as if the overlords pulling the strings are expanding this everything bubble to mammoth proportions before “pulling it” and creating the crisis they need in order to save the day by implementing their “Great Taking” of your 401k, IRA, mutual funds, and bank accounts, while offering CBDCs as compensation for absconding with your life savings. They would get the added benefit of pinning the catastrophe on Trump. Based on the almost absolute compliance by the masses during the covid scam, our ruling elite controllers are confident they could pull this off. If not, civil war would be the alternate outcome.

There is a myriad of other more ambiguous potential triggers which could light the fuse on this powder keg, disguised as civilized society. There are quite a few lunatics running countries with the ability to launch a nuclear missile. One miscalculation, with additional dominos falling, and the world turns into an ashtray. Earthquake and volcanic activity seem to be increasing. A volcanic winter caused by a massive eruption would cause global havoc and starvation. A massive grid failure due to a solar event, EMP, or just plain incompetence would cause pandemonium. NATO pushing Russia too far, with missiles launched at Germany, triggering treaty obligations as in 1914, with dire consequences for the globe. The assassination of Putin and ascension of Medvedev to president/dictator would surely ignite WW3. China invading Taiwan would certainly get the fireworks going.

The truth is no one knows what will initiate the next bloody phase, but you can’t deny the volatile concoction simmering, as societal collapse awaits. I know I sound like a broken record, but Strauss & Howe conjured up four potential outcomes to this Fourth Turning, and I think their educated guesses are on target and deeply concerning. The long road ahead will be stormy and dangerous. Hopefully we come out whole on the other side with a renewed appreciation for our Constitution and Bill of Rights. Currently, the odds for that outcome seem long.

Strauss & Howe provide four possible outcomes to our current Crisis:

1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.

2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.

3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.

4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.

With positioning at extremes (9/10 long according to Goldman’s trading desk), MSFT’s results tonight are market-makers (or breakers) and the bar was set high heading in.

There was no need to worry… lol!

MSFT beat on the top- and bottom lines

• *MICROSOFT 4Q REV. $76.44B, EST. $73.89B

• *MICROSOFT 4Q EPS $3.65, EST $3.37

In fact MSFT beat on every line item:

While the last quarter had analysts questioning MSFT’s CapEx spend as an indicator of a slowing pace of investment in AI, Q4 showed no signs of slowing…

• *MICROSOFT 4Q CAPEX INCLUDING LEASES $24.2B, EST. $23.17B

Under the hood, more beats:

• *MICROSOFT 4Q CLOUD REV. $46.7B, EST. $45.96B

• *MICROSOFT 4Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $29.88B, EST. $29.1B

“Cloud and AI is the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector,” said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.

“We’re innovating across the tech stack to help customers adapt and grow in this new era, and this year, Azure surpassed $75 billion in revenue, up 34 percent, driven by growth across all workloads.”

And this was the big one: 

• *MICROSOFT’S AZURE SURPASSED $75B IN REV. THIS YEAR, UP 34%

• *MICROSOFT 4Q AZURE & OTHER CLOUD REV EX-FX +39%, EST. +34.2%

“We closed out the fiscal year with a strong quarter, highlighted by Microsoft Cloud revenue reaching $46.7 billion, up 27% (up 25% in constant currency) year-over-year,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

MSFT shares are exploding higher after hours, up over 6%…

Extending the huge gains from Q3 earnings…

MSFT remains well positioned to capture a number of major secular trends (gen AI, public cloud consumption, SaaS adoption etc) and is relatively insulated from tariff considerations, making it a core long for many.

Since the last FOMC meeting (on June 18th), stocks have soared and gold (and crude oil) have been sold while bonds and the dollar have trod water...

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably, while macro data has shown ‘growth’ has strengthened; ‘inflation’ has continued to fall, significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, while the voyage has been eventful, the market’s expectations for rate-cuts in 2025 is exactly where it was at the last FOMC meeting (just below 2 full cuts)…

Source: Bloomberg

Heading in to today’s FOMC decision, expectations were unequivocally for no cut today, with September signaled as better than a coin-toss for the next cut (though those odds were falling into the FOMC statement)…

Source: Bloomberg

So, while expectations are for no rate-cut today, hints of future dovishness (in the statement as well as in Powell’s presser) are a key focus as the potential for the first double-Governor-dissent since 1993 is on the cards…

So, what did The Fed actually do (and say)…

The Fed held rates flat (as expected):

• *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE

But see some weakness…

• *FED: ECONOMIC GROWTH MODERATED IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR

It’s a Double Dissent Day, dude!!

• *FED GOVERNORS WALLER, BOWMAN DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT

That’s the first time sine 1993…

Our first take is that the combination of a double dissent (pro cuts) and the recognition that growth is ‘moderating’, strongly suggests a dovish tilt from the Fed and the market is seeing odds of a September cut rising…

FOMC statement redline changes: 

1) Replaced “economic activity has continued to expand at solid pace” with “growth of economic activity moderated in first half of the year”

2) Removed “diminished” from “uncertainty about economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated”

Read the full statement redline below:

Now, all eyes on the press conference to see if Powell can tread the fine line between claiming data-dependence and admitting he is basing his decision not to cut rates on ‘gut’ feel that tariffs are inflationary.