Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The top vaccine official at the Food and Drug Administration has resigned.

Dr. Vinay Prasad, just months into his tenure, is leaving the FDA, the FDA’s parent agency said on July 29.

“Dr. Prasad did not want to be a distraction to the great work of the FDA in the Trump administration and has decided to return to California and spend more time with his family,” a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services told news outlets in a statement.

“We thank him for his service and the many important reforms he was able to achieve in his time at FDA.”

An email to Prasad’s FDA account bounced back. He did not return an early morning message to his University of California, San Francisco account.

A longtime college professor, Prasad gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic for criticizing the broad COVID-19 vaccine mandates and recommendations, including recommendations that all young men receive vaccines even though they faced a much higher risk of heart inflammation.

He also wrote on social media about his politics, with a post in 2020 offering that he wanted Joe Biden to beat President Donald Trump and a 2022 post describing how he aligned with the Democratic Party on a wide range of topics such as abortion and immigration.

Some Republicans had been critical of Prasad in recent days, including influencer Laura Loomer and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.).

“FDA’s Vinay Prasad Stands with Progressive Health Policies,” Santorum wrote in a recent op-ed.

“Very productive day today,” Loomer said on X after the announcement that Prasad had resigned.

“It’s very important that we protect President Trump.”

Prasad was named the head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research in May by Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA’s commissioner and one of Prasad’s friends. Prasad and Makary went on to establish a new policy for COVID-19 vaccines, halting approvals for many Americans absent clinical trial data.

Prasad overruled FDA staffers on three COVID-19 vaccines, including two from Moderna. The FDA approved the vaccines for the elderly as well as younger people with an underlying condition, placing them at higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, but not for the rest of Americans.

Some doctors had expressed concern that the approvals still went too far, prompting Makary to tell The Epoch Times that the approvals were a way to compel the companies to run trials.

Prasad, who had also in the past criticized how his predecessor overruled staffers to approve a gene therapy for muscular dystrophy, also pressured the maker of the therapy into halting shipments following the deaths of multiple patients, although the FDA on July 28 allowed shipments to resume.

“Under Vinay Prasad’s leadership, the FDA is adopting a European-socialist stance on American healthcare and innovation, a radical shift that prioritizes restrictive policies over progress. His approach is a step backward, stifling the innovation that has long driven U.S. medical advancements,” Loomer wrote on X.

“Prasad’s regressive measures could delay critical treatments and hinder innovation, ultimately putting lives at risk as access to cutting-edge therapies is curtailed.”

Supporters of Prasad lamented his resignation.

“Prasad’s FDA departure is a disgrace to the Agency and the Trump administration. Caving to misleading hit pieces,” Jessica Adams, a former FDA officer, wrote on X. She said that the move suggested officials held Prasad’s prior political views against him, even though he “may have evolved through the pandemic like many of us” and “did not make politics his main career focus,” instead focusing on research, teaching, and medical practice.

“He was brought in to enforce appropriate standards, increase trust, and show independence from Pharma corruption,” she said. “Not a good sign that he was pushed out.”

Cory Bowman, the half-brother of Vice President J.D. Vance and also running for mayor of Cincinnati, ignited outrage on X after exposing a disturbing social media post by Cincinnati Council Member Victoria Parks, who said the Whites “begged for that beat down” in downtown Cincinnati last weekend. This comes on the heels of Cincinnati Police Chief Teresa Theetge’s absurd attempt to downplay the Black mob assault, raising very serious concerns about the city’s woke leadership.

“They begged for that beat down! I am grateful for the whole story,” Parks wrote on what appears to be a Facebook post. Bowman took a screenshot of the post and reposted it on X. 

“Actual social media comments made by a sitting member of Cincinnati City Council …” Bowman wrote…

Actual social media comments made by a sitting member of Cincinnati City Council … pic.twitter.com/JXQkKjJCoS

— Cory Bowman (@corymbowman) July 30, 2025

Profiling Parks: Here’s what the City of Cincinnati’s website comes up … all you need to know about this social justice warrior:

According to one of Parks’ X re-posts, she is a mega anti-Trumper:

She believes in “free everything,” and this pattern of political policies is becoming increasingly common among Democrats who are openly embracing socialism and Marxism, such as the Democratic mayoral candidate in NYC.

This is Cincinnati City Councilor Victoria Parks, who wrote the 3 White elderly people attacked at their jazz festival “begged for it”. Here she is advocating for free housing, food and DEI jobs. pic.twitter.com/k1igqX7YYu

— David Santa Carla 🦇 (@TheOnlyDSC) July 30, 2025

One X user asked: “I’ve seen a lot of people saying they saw “additional footage” that put the reaction of the crowd “in some context,” and clearly Ms. Parks saw something so damning that it justified “that beat down.” But I can’t seem to actually FIND any footage like that. Can you point me to it?”

I’ve seen a lot of people saying they saw “additional footage” that put the reaction of the crowd “in some context,” and clearly Ms. Parks saw something so damning that it justified “that beat down.” But I can’t seem to actually FIND any footage like that. Can you point me to it?

— Eric Sheridan Wyatt (@NewEricWyatt) July 30, 2025

Watch: footage of the attack.

If this garbage persists, federal funding must be cut. The group should face hate crime charges. A mob of Blacks brutally attacked a white man and woman at the Cincinnati Jazz Festival. Such savage behavior is increasing nationwide, yet the mainstream media ignores the surge in… pic.twitter.com/rRf79X75rs

— Jason (@jason1Patterson) July 27, 2025

Earlier this week, Cincinnati Police Chief Teresa Theetge failed to answer a reporter’s simple question about “What exactly was distorted?” in the video. 

Cincinnati Police Chief Terri Theetge chastising social media and “the media” about showing videos of the black mob attacking random white people.

Unfuckingbelievable. pic.twitter.com/hZVgDSqv6P

— Kentucky Girl (@Notwokenow) July 29, 2025

Musk commeneted on the video, saying, “Either she [Theetge] answers the question or she should resign.” 

Either she answers the question or she should resign

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2025

Fox News reported earlier that three people have been arrested in connection with the beatdown…

Meanwhile, Harmeet Dhillon, Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights at the U.S. Department of Justice, is closely monitoring the situation. 

These attacks are ATTEMPTED MURDERS + HATE CRIMES!

The time to act is now or it will get much worse! pic.twitter.com/whvdiO5PQA

— Publius (@OcrazioCornPop) July 28, 2025

What the hell is happening in Cleveland? 

Welcome to Cleveland pic.twitter.com/N1fsBsRfWV

— One Bad Dude (@OneBadDude_) July 27, 2025

Federal law applies to all Americans – something cultural Marxists and Democrats disagree on. 

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

After six consecutive quarters of declining sales, Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol said on July 29 that price increases at the Seattle-based coffee giant would be a last resort.

Niccol, the former Chipotle chief executive who became CEO of Starbucks in September 2024, vowed in January to turn the global coffeehouse chain around under his “Back to Starbucks“ initiative.

The plan aims to bolster sales by enhancing the in-store experience, returning the condiment bar, writing on cups, and re-introducing a simplified menu and a revised code of conduct.

Speaking during an earnings call, Niccol stated that Starbucks has made progress this quarter and is ahead of expectations.

He said Starbucks plans to replace thousands of seats across its chain.

“We slowed new builds and major renovations to prioritize a new coffee house uplift program, with a target investment of approximately $150,000 per store and minimal to no downtime,” Niccol said.

“Uplifts are intended to quickly replace thousands of seats we removed and introduce greater texture, warmth and layered design. Work is accelerating now in New York City. We’ll begin in Southern California later in Q4. And by the end of calendar year 2026, we will have completed at least 1,000 uplifts across North America.”

Starbucks has also begun working on the “coffeehouse of the future,” he said.

“We have a new standalone prototype that will open in fiscal 2026 that has 32 seats, a drive-thru, and a roughly 30 percent lower cost to build,” Niccol said. “A small format version with approximately 10 seats is under construction in New York City and will open in the next few months.”

Despite the declining sales, Niccol also said, “Pricing is always the last lever I like to pull.”

“There are times where it makes sense to take some price, and when those situations present itself, we’re going to do it in the least amount of pricing necessary. I prefer to always hold back on that one as much as possible,” Niccol said.

“So, will we have to use it in the future? Absolutely. It’s going to be the last lever I’d like to pull and when we pull that lever I probably want to do as little as possible.”

Last week, tech billionaire Elon Musk opened what he called a “retro-futuristic diner“ in Hollywood on July 21.

Besides coffee and food, the Tesla diner offers electric vehicle owners a bank of solar-powered fast-charging stations, two huge outdoor LED movie screens, and an Optimus robot serving popcorn.

“If our retro-futuristic diner turns out well, which I think it will, [Tesla] will establish these in major cities around the world, as well as at Supercharger sites on long distance routes,” Must posted on X on the diner’s opening day.

On Tuesday, Starbucks reported that its net revenue rose 4 percent to $9.5 billion in the fiscal third quarter ending June 29, beating analysts’ estimate of $9.31 billion.

Global comparable store sales declined 2 percent, driven by a 2 percent drop in transactions, the company said in its earnings report.

The decline was partially offset by a 1 percent increase in average ticket price, the company said.

Analysts on average had projected a 1.19 percent decline, according to data compiled by LSEG.

In its largest North America market, the drop in quarterly same-store sales remained steady at 2 percent, Starbucks said.

In China, where Starbucks faces intense competition from local rivals like Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee, comparable store sales rose 2 percent, driven by a 6 percent increase in transactions, partially offset by a 4 percent drop in average ticket, Starbucks said.

The company reported a profit of 50 cents per share on an adjusted basis, marking a 46 percent decline over the prior year and missing estimates of 65 cents.

It said operating margin in the third quarter contracted 650 basis points year-over-year to 10.1 percent, primarily driven by higher spending tied to its “Back to Starbucks” initiative, including additional labor hours.

Starbucks’ stock was up more than 4.6 percent in after-hours trading following the earnings call.

Jill McLaughlin contributed to this report.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

“Give me Sydney Sweeney’s tits or give me death!”

Those were the words of Patrick Henry to the Second Virginia Convention on March 23, 1775.

Well, not those words exactly. But trust me, they’re very, very close. And the point was the same: liberty is great. And liberty means freedom. And freedom means unapologetic tits in clothing ads. It’s all we had before the internet existed. It’s what we stormed the beaches at Normandy for. It’s what John Lennon died for.

As you probably know by now, the devastatingly captivating Sydney Sweeney American Eagle ad campaign hit the internet last week, and within hours the usual “woke” outrage factory clocked in for their shift (before immediately threatening to unionize and walking out).

“Intellectual” critiques of the Sweeney campaign started sprouting like weeds: “Is this the death of body positivity?” “Why is American Eagle glorifying beauty standards from… all of human history?”

The gist of the complaints? Bullshit like this.

Which is to say, the key critique is: Sydney Sweeney is a four alarm, weapons-grade smoke show in jeans and a tank top, which apparently constitutes some type of personal attack on anyone who isn’t.

Twitter threads unspooled at record pace, TikTok “activists” relived their high school theater days and offered up monologues about “toxic hotness,” the term “Nazi” got tossed around a lot and somewhere, a marketing intern at American Eagle hopefully realized they’d just won the free publicity lottery.

This (non) “controversy” occurred because somewhere along the path of inverting the common sense poles the last decade, being good-looking got treated like a moral failing. For a the better part of a decade now, the cultural mood has suggested that if you are attractive, you needed to apologize for it, dim your light, or strategically post blurry selfies in the name of “relatability.” Instead, people of a different size were celebrated…

…which is perfectly fine. All people should be celebrated. My body doesn’t look like Cristiano Ronaldo’s by any means. But it just so happens that now the advertising pendulum is swinging back to the classic model again.

This is why I think Sweeney’s American Eagle ad campaign will withstand the whining hall monitors railing against it and persevere as a reminder that it’s okay to be jaw-dropping again. The world isn’t collapsing into itself because someone looks good in denim, for fuck’s sake.

In fact, now that I think about it, it’s probably benefitting from it.

Let’s be honest: civilization runs on sexy women. It’s the reason almost all men do anything, every day. And whether it’s Hollywood premieres, fashion campaigns, or that coworker who mysteriously gets every meeting greenlit, attractiveness has always been a form of currency since the beginning of humankind. It’s nature.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

The global economy doesn’t literally list “smoke show energy” as a sector, but scroll through any ad campaign, entertainment lineup, or luxury brand launch and tell me it’s not a major driver of engagement—and revenue.

In fact, a large chunk of pop culture, consumer spending, and general human motivation traces back to beauty, charisma, and presence.

You don’t have to like it, but it’s reality. Sydney Sweeney isn’t upending the moral fabric of society—she’s just participating in the same timeless truth: being captivating…well, captivates people. And honestly? After the last 10 years, it’s kind of nice to see the pendulum swing back to unapologetic glamour.

The people complaining might want to take a step back and read the room—and also the 2024 electoral map. The culture-warrior crowd who scold brands for celebrating someone being attractive just watched their broader worldview take a historic L at the ballot box.

That kind of loss doesn’t just happen because of “messaging.” It happens because the public is tired of being told what they’re allowed to like. And most us of like this:

Democratic party approval ratings just hit all time lows because of this type of nonsense. You can blame policy, you can blame strategy, or—you could just admit—lecturing people about what’s “problematic” in a denim ad isn’t exactly a way to show the world you have your priorities in order.

If the outrage brigade is serious about making a comeback, they’ll have to rediscover the lost art of meeting the public where it actually is. And spoiler: the public isn’t calling for a tribunal on Sydney Sweeney’s waist-to-hip ratio. And the average voter, with the attention span of a garden gnome, is far more likely to remember the above photo than a 1,200-word op-ed about why a commercial made some snowflake feel “excluded.”

So, here’s some unsolicited political advice: if you want the Primrose path back to voter approval, maybe stop turning harmless cultural moments into battlefields when the world has real problems to deal with. Hey Democrats and op-ed writers who wear those tiny colored spectacles! FYI: Sydney Sweeney’s ad isn’t a crisis—it’s an opportunity. Embrace the tits, they will lead the Democrats back to the promised land — because they are, in fact, the promised land.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

The CEO of Sysco, the largest foodservice distributor in the U.S., serving nearly 20% of the nation’s restaurants and commercial kitchens, issued a warning on Tuesday: Consumer sentiment and confidence remain lackluster.

CEO Kevin Hourican spoke with Bloomberg during an interview after the foodservice distributor reported earnings and forecasted annual sales at the lower end of its target range.

Hourican noted that consumer sentiment and confidence “is not high right now.” 

Sysco expects sales growth of about 3% to 5% in fiscal 2026, less than the three-year sales growth target of 4% to 6% it forecasted last year. 

Sysco serves over 700,000 customer locations, giving it unparalleled visibility into the health of America’s restaurants and commercial kitchens. Its massive scale and nationwide reach make it a barometer for consumer behavior across the entire foodservice industry.

For more U.S. restaurant trends, a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led by Christine Cho posted a note for clients on Tuesday that showed Net Purchase Intent over time for three restaurant subsectors: Fast Casual, Casual Dining, and Fast Food, based on trailing 3-month averages (T3M). 

Takeaways:

• Shift in preferences: Consumers are pivoting from fast casual to casual dining, possibly seeking a fuller dining experience or better value amid inflation.

• Fast casual sentiment is weakening, despite historically being the leader in restaurant trends.

• Fast food remains under pressure, with the lowest consumer intent scores across the board.

. . . 

In today’s closely watched Quarterly Refunding Announcement on debt issuance – which to many was more important than the FOMC statement – the Treasury Department said at 8:30am ET that that it anticipates keeping the size of its note and bond auctions unchanged “for at least the next several quarters.” And since that was the same guidance the Treasury has given since the start of last year, it leaves bills, which were the fulcrum security of Janet Yellen’s Activist Treasury Issuance strategy so repeatedly penned by Scott Bessent, once again bearing the brunt of the government’s rising borrowing needs, although as the charts of Bill and Coupon issuance below show, the US is already pretty much at 10…. so these better go to 11. 

This means that the Treasury will rely more on the shortest-dated securities to fund the gaping federal deficit at least until 2026, after Treasury Secretary Bessent said last month that yields on longer-dated Treasuries were too high to consider boosting sales of such debt. In doing so he is implicitly endorsing the same strategy that he slammed when it took place under Janet Yellen. 

As we noted in our QRA preview, and as Bloomberg notes, Wall Street had varying views on what guidance the Treasury would provide. Wells Fargo expected a reiteration of the previous language. JPMorgan strategists said officials “perhaps” might lop off the “at least” qualification for the coming several quarters, while Stephen Stanley at Santander US Capital Markets said his best guess was the entire removal of the guidance.

In the end this is what the Treasury did say:

“Treasury believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and to the pace and duration of future SOMA redemptions.  Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.”

Which is nothing more than can kicking: “The longer debt managers wait to get started, the more difficult the job becomes” of preparing markets for bigger sales of interest-bearing debt, or coupons, Santander’s Stanley wrote before the Wednesday announcement.

Turning to the actual refunding, as widely expected by dealers, the Treasury maintained the size of next week’s quarterly refunding auctions, which span 3-, 10- and 30-year maturities. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $125 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $89.8 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2025, both in line with estimates, and raising new cash of about $35.2 billion. The composition is as follows: 

• 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, maturing August 15, 2028
• 10-year note in the amount of $42 billion, maturing August 15, 2035 
• 30-year bond in the amount of $25 billion, maturing August 15, 2055

The table below presents the actual auction sizes for the May to July 2025 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the August to October 2025 quarter. As one can see, the 3, 10 and 30Yr issuance sizes are identical as during the last refunding in May of 2025.

The Treasury also said it was continuing to nudge sales of some Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, higher in order to keep their share of the overall Treasury market stable. It announced the following adjustments:

• A bump up of the September 10-year TIPS reopening auction to $19 billion
• An increase of the October 5-year new issue TIPS auction to $26 billion

And since there was no surprise in the coupon issuance schedule, it means Bills will once again have to step up and fund the balance. As the Treasury wrote, “since the $5 trillion increase to the debt limit on July 4, Treasury has increased bill issuance to continue to finance the government and to gradually rebuild the cash balance over time to a level more consistent with its cash balance policy.” As previously noted, Treasury anticipates that the cash balance will approach levels consistent with its policy in September.  Accordingly, “Treasury anticipates further marginal increases in short-dated Treasury bill auction sizes in the coming days and then maintaining sizes at or near those levels through the end of September. Additional increases to Treasury bill auction sizes are anticipated in October.  Treasury will carefully monitor market conditions and adjust its bill issuance plans as appropriate.” 

Bessent had been among the most Republicans to criticize former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last year for artificially holding down sales of longer-term debt, saying it was an attempt to keep borrowing costs low before the election. And while Bills made up about 20% of the Treasuries market at the end of June, the ratio is now set to climb in the coming months as the Treasury continues to refrain from increasing note and bond issuance. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, an outside panel made up of dealers, investors and other market participants, last year recommended that bills average about 20% of total outstanding Treasuries over time.

Relying just on bills to fund the deficit would at some point make the ratio of those securities so large that it would introduce sharp volatility in the Treasury’s financing costs. It would also potentially force the department to set aside a bigger stockpile of cash in case of challenges in rolling over maturing bills on any given day.

For now, strategists say there’s ample demand for bills. Money-market funds are expected to keep growing, giving them the capacity to absorb part of the additional bill supply if those securities make up a bigger share of debt, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. The Fed may also emerge as a bigger buyer of bills as policymakers begin to discuss whether to tilt their bond portfolio toward shorter-duration securities. And Bessent has repeatedly pointed to stablecoins as a fresh source of demand. That’s right: very soon Tether will become just as important as the Fed when it comes to funding the US government. 

Translation: expect a very, very front-end loaded Treasury curve, one which will be funded by stablecoin issuers and which will be at the whim of the Fed for short-term funding costs. Whatever can possibly go wrong.

But (re)funding schedules aside, which as noted were a snoozer, the most consequential aspect of today’s Quarterly Refunding was how the Treasury’s buyback program will  be changed.  As readers will recall, ahead of today’s refunding announcement, we said that Goldman was expecting a 50-100% increase in Treasury buybacks and said that “Calling this “shadow QE” is definitely a bridge too far…but it might on a path that leads to that bridge.” 

Goldman expects a 50-100% increase in Treasury buybacks announced in today’s QRA. Says “Calling this “shadow QE” is definitely a bridge too far…but it might on a path that leads to that bridge.”

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 30, 2025

That’s more or less what happened, because in the biggest news of the day, the department unveiled plans to beef up its program of buying back older securities, bringing that initiative to an annual target in excess of $300 billion.

The Treasury said it would double the frequency of long-end operations, boosting the liquidity support cap from $30 billion to $38 billion per quarter, and opening the door to broader market access through direct offers from a limited set of counterparties starting in 2026.

This change to buybacks is not a marginal tweak — it’s a structural shift aimed at injecting flexibility and smoothing market functioning as Treasury debt issuance ramps higher; and while nobody will ever admit it, it is also a shadow QE meant to prop up the long end in case the Fed refuses to step in similar to what happened in April.

Describing the changes to the buyback program meant “to better achieve its liquidity support and cash management goals”, the Treasury said that based on feedback from a wide range of market participants, including the primary dealers and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, Treasury believes it is appropriate to:

1. Double the frequency of long-end nominal coupon liquidity support buybacks: Changes involved will boost the aggregate size of liquidity-support buybacks to a maximum par amount of $38 billion per quarter from $30 billion
2. Increase the size of cash management buybacks: Ramping up the cash-management buybacks to a maximum par amount of $150 billion per year from $120 billion
3. Make a technical adjustment to the TIPS buyback buckets:  i) There will now be two operations per quarter of up to $750 million of 1- to 10-year TIPS buybacks; ii) There will be one operation per quarter of up to $500 million of 10- to 30-year TIPS
4. Allow a limited number of additional counterparties to directly access buyback operations. I.e., spread the “NOT STEALTH QE” wealth.

These changes will be effective August 13, 2025 and are reflected in the tentative buyback schedule for the upcoming refunding quarter. 

So what is really going on here? Well, recall that in April, just as yields exploded higher after Liberation Day, Powell appears on BBG TV and said that if the Fed does nothing, the Treasury has a “big toolkit” and could “up the Treasury buybacks” (to prop up Treasuries, in lieu of QE). 

Must watch interview: Bessent reveals he has breakfast with Powell every week, and also reveals that if the Fed does nothing, the Treasury has a “big toolkit” and could “up the Treasury buybacks” (to prop up Treasuries, in lieu of QE). https://t.co/XX24GkV9Ru https://t.co/iABbJiYXVG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2025

Which of course is another way of saying that the Fed and Treasury are once again planning on “merging” and that Yield Curve Control – which requires a consolidated Fed/Treasury – is coming. 

Oi prices were steady early on Wednesday, rising for a third session even as API reported an unexpected rise in US crude inventories.

Oil prices have been supported by U.S. threats to impose secondary sanctions of buyers of Russian oil after U.S. President Donald Trump this week cut his deadline for Russia to reach a ceasefire in its war on Ukraine from 50 days to 10 to 12 days.

“Displaying frustration with the lack of tangible progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the US President has shortened his ultimatum for the aggressor from 50 days to 10-12. The prevailing assumption is that, after this period, new sanctions, including measures targeting Russia’s energy sector, will be introduced … The geopolitical risk surrounding key oil-producing regions has therefore risen,” PVM Oil Associates noted.

Still, the geopolitical risk is countered by rising supply. With Western hemisphere production also increasing, OPEC+ is returning 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts to market in monthly tranches that began in May, with the full return expected to be complete in September.

The question for traders this morning is simple – will the official data confirm API?

API

• Crude +1.54mm (-2.5mm exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline -1.74mm

• Distillates +4.18mm

DOE

• Crude +7.698mm – biggest build since January

• Cushing

• Gasoline

• Distillates

Against expectations of a small drawdown, the official data showed a large build in crude stocks last week (the biggest since January and far bigger than the API-reported level). Cushing stocks rose for the fourth week in a row while gasoline inventories fell for the third week in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

The Trump admin added 238k barrels to the SPR last weekj (after two weeks of drawdowns), adding to the largest rise in commercial crude stocks since January

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the ongoing plunge in the rig count, US crude production remains near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude was largely unmoved by the DOE data coming slightly off the highs of the day…

“President Trump’s patience with Russia seems to be wearing thin, and oil markets have reacted somewhat to the prospect of a potential supply disruption,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said.

“We recognize the upside risks from a potential binary outcome, but caution against assigning too high of a probability to it.”

Oil is on track for a third monthly gain, and markets also remain focused on the US deadline to nail down trade deals by Aug. 1, and the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend that will decide supply for September.

Traders expect the group to agree on another bumper increase to crude production.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has claimed in a new statement published by TASS state news agency that US and British officials recently met with senior Ukrainian figures in an undisclosed Alpine resort in Europe to discuss the possible replacement of President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The meeting allegedly included top Ukrainian officials such as Andrey Yermak, head of the presidential office; Kirill Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence; and Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief now serving as Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK.

Given the high stature of these individuals, this is a massive claim, and it could be that Russian intelligence is is releasing such a report – even if unverified and/or possibly untrue – in order to sow discord, suspicion and paranoia within the Ukrainian presidency’s office. But some recent independent reports in the West have also pointed to a key former top general being groomed as a potential successor.

TASS reports that the Western representatives at the meeting proposed Valery Zaluzhny as Zelensky’s potential successor. He had long been Ukraine’s most visible and celebrated general, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from 2021 until his controversial dismissal by Zelensky in 2024.

His dismissal from the top command post over the armed forces to now serve as Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom was widely seen as in effect a political exile of sorts.

The SVR and state media are claiming further that Yermak and Budanov accepted the US-UK proposal, securing assurances that they would retain their current roles and have influence over future appointments if Zaluzhny took power.

At the moment the European Union has made the unprecedented threat to cut off funding to Kiev, after Zelensky moved to undermine Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions, which was formalized in a law Zelensky signed this month.

President Trump has clearly been putting immense pressure on the Russian side after the latest round of failed talks in Istanbul, giving Putin just ten days to show serious progress toward negotiating peace – but could the same level of pressure now be on Zelensky behind the scenes?

The new claims out of Russian intelligence might not entirely be without merit, given recently legendary American journalist Seymour Hersh wrote an article titled The End of Zelensky?

The main thesis was that Zaluzhny is now seen by Washington insiders as the most credible successor to Zelensky, as seen in Hersh’s introduction to the July 18 story below:

In fall of 2023, Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander in chief of the country’s armed forces, gave an interview to the Economist and declared the war with Russia had become a “stalemate.” It took three months for President Volodymyr Zelensky to fire him. The general, who is the most popular public figure in Ukraine, was named ambassador to London a month later and has served there with distinction, if quietly.

Zaluzhnyi is now seen as the most credible successor to Zelensky. I have been told by knowledgeable officials in Washington that that job could be his within a few months. Zelensky is on a short list for exile, if President Donald Trump decides to make the call. If Zelensky refuses to leave his office, as is most likely, an involved US official told me: “He’s going to go by force. The ball is in his court.” There are many in Washington and in Ukraine who believe that the escalating air war with Russia must end soon, while there’s still a chance to make a settlement with its president, Vladimir Putin.

This week, Russian sources have been highlighting a suspiciously timed article and photoshoot featuring Gen. Zaluzhnyi in Vogue magazine…

Most recently, Vogue published Zaluzhny’s column that outlines his “vision for Ukraine’s future.”

After Zelensky’s 2022 Vogue feature boosted his Western image, Zaluzhny’s appearance in the fashion mag is most likely a political PR move.

6/6 pic.twitter.com/pMK0cPng45

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) July 29, 2025

At the same time, Zelensky – once Time’s ‘person of the year’ (in 2022) – hasn’t been featured of late in any more glam-filled western media photo shoots. His ‘star power’ has most definitely been fading in western capitals, also as populations are war-weary and desirous of peace in eastern Europe, but which would require Zelensky to make territorial concessions. He’s refusing to do this.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

If you want to get a really good indication of where the U.S. economy is heading, just look at what is happening in Las Vegas.  During good times, hotel occupancy rates are very high and lots of money is thrown around in the casinos.  But when times are getting tough, less people head to Las Vegas and those that do go tend to be tighter with their money.  We saw a perfect example of this during the Great Recession.

 Once the global financial crisis hit, gambling revenues in Las Vegas plunged.  The following comes from an ABC News article that was published in 2009…

To almost everyone — and especially the Germans — Las Vegas seemed recession-proof. But now, since the summer of 2008, gambling revenues have dropped by more than 10 percent (see graphic) after having plunged to as much as 25 percent in the months immediately following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

Of course things eventually turned around and Las Vegas thrived for many years.

But now another enormous shift is taking place.  A new downturn has begun “with hotel occupancy, visitor numbers and spending all slipping”…

Las Vegas is experiencing a notable downturn in tourism, with hotel occupancy, visitor numbers and spending all slipping.

Industry data points to several key reasons behind the shift, including rising costs, fewer international travellers, and broader economic uncertainties.

So why is this happening?

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

Despite the absolutely nonsense that you hear on CNBC, the truth is that the U.S. economy is rapidly going in the wrong direction.

As a result, occupancy rates at Las Vegas hotels are absolutely plummeting…

Las Vegas hotels are posting some of the steepest year-over-year performance declines among major U.S. markets this summer as international visitor weakness and economic uncertainty take a toll.

Preliminary STR data indicates Las Vegas occupancy fell 14.9% in June, which, if actualized, would mark the city’s deepest monthly decline so far this year.

The deterioration continued into July, with the week ending July 5 showing Vegas with the worst declines across the top 25 U.S. markets: Occupancy fell 16.8%, to 66.7%, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) plunged 28.7%, to $102.75, according to STR.

Because things are so slow, workers are being laid off, and the unemployment rate in the Las Vegas area jumped quite a bit higher last month…

Las Vegas’ jobless rate ticked higher again last month amid a slump in tourism this year.

The Las Vegas-area’s unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in June, up from 5.5 percent in May, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures released this week by the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.

Nobody can deny what is happening in Las Vegas, because the numbers are telling a very clear story.

And it turns out that casinos in other areas of the country are also experiencing financial difficulties right now.  Here is just one prominent example…

Earlier this month, resort and casino operator Maverick Gaming filed for Chapter 11 protection in the U.S. Southern District of Texas. The Kirkland, Washington-based company owns five casinos across Nevada, Colorado, and Washington and reported that it currently has between $100 million and $500 million in liabilities.

The Nevada properties include a combined 1,200 hotel rooms, 1,700 slot machines and 43 table games. The Washington resorts also have 17 card tables used by visitors specifically seeking out the hotels for gambling trips.

This reminds me so much of the Great Recession.

If you think that I am exaggerating, let me give you another parallel to 2008 and 2009.  Our housing market just experienced “its slowest spring season in more than a dozen years”…

The US housing market just logged its slowest spring season in more than a dozen years, leaving Glennda Baker, a veteran real estate agent in Atlanta, struggling to sell 21 listings.

She’s been slashing prices. But months of chatter about AI taking jobs and tariffs tanking the economy is feeding into buyer indecision.
“People say price solves everything,” Baker said. “But price doesn’t solve uncertainty.”

For the entire year of 2025, home sales in the United States are expected to hit the lowest level in 30 years…

Home sales are set to plunge to a 30-year low — with experts warning the slump could deepen into a full‑blown collapse. Just four million transactions are expected in the US this year, according to new data from Realtor.com. That would mark the lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Yes, it is being projected that home sales in 2025 will be even lower than they were in 2008 and 2009.

That isn’t just bad.

That is really bad.

So why do the talking heads on CNBC continue to insist that the economy is strong?

Have they gone completely nuts?

I simply don’t understand why they can’t see the parallels to 2008 and 2009, but one thing that we didn’t have in 2008 and 2009 that we are dealing with today is rampant inflation.

If you can believe it, the average list price of a 3-year-old used vehicle has risen by $9,476 over the past six years…

Detroit Free Press autos writer Jamie LaReau reported recently that the average list price for a 3-year-old vehicle is now $32,635, an infuriating $9,476 more than it was six years ago.

This is one of the primary reasons why so many Americans are driving around in 20-year-old vehicles these days.

The average age of the vehicles on U.S. roads has reached an all-time record high, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.

Meanwhile, meat prices just continue to skyrocket…

In June, meat prices well outpaced the entire food-at-home category, with steak and ground beef prices rising 12.4% and 10.3%, respectively, compared with a year earlier, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI).

Beef prices are now hitting a record $9.26 per pound at retailers as of June, according to the USDA.

Inflation is causing our standard of living to collapse.

This is something that I have written about over and over again.

At this stage, things are so bad that 83 percent of Americans are dealing with “stressflation”…

A LifeStance Health survey released today reveals “stressflation” is affecting most Americans, with 83% reporting financial stress driven by inflation, mass layoffs, the rising cost of living and recession fears. Millennials and Gen Z report the most significant mental health impacts.

So if you are feeling stressed about the rapidly rising cost of living, you are certainly not alone.

Sadly, the long-term trends that have brought us to this point are not going to abate any time soon.

In fact, a tremendous amount of societal chaos is on the horizon.

So I would encourage you to batten down the hatches, because the storm that is heading our way is not going to be pleasant.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

The choppy performance of the US housing market continued in June with pending home sales falling 0.8% MoM (considerably worse than the 0.2% MoM rise expected).

Source: Bloomberg

That left YoY sales down 0.3% – the seventh straight monthly decline in annual growth – leaving the total pending home sales index back near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The supply of existing homes for sale has reached an almost five-year high, as more people list their homes for sale, but the extra inventory isn’t yet pushing prices down.

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage applications to buy a home dropped 5% last week and are down for the last five weeks… so don’t hold your breath for any material improvement any time soon.

The Northeast was the only region to see a rise (+2.1% MoM) in pending home sales with sales in The West dropping the most (-3.9% MoM).

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.