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Be Very Afraid: The Hantavirus And Suicide Dolphins

Be Very Afraid: The Hantavirus And Suicide Dolphins

Authored by Donald Jefferies vis substack,

Bend over and keep smiling

Our incomparably bad leaders appear ready to foist another “pandemic” on the always unwary public. They proved in 2020 that the entire world could be shut down in a matter of days. With no troops or police needed. Just a corrupt, kept press, and compromised political “representatives.” They know that nothing sells like fear porn.

The latest potential “pandemic” is called the Hantavirus. Authorities, who are always telling us something, tell us it’s been around for a while. It is spread primarily by contact with an infected rodent. Well, don’t we all routinely have contact with rodents, infected or not? Specifically, the CDC informs us, by contact with rodent “urine, droppings, and saliva.” That’s not a scenario I can easily picture. I didn’t even know rodents had saliva. Just how does one get close enough to come in contact with it? Hantavirus symptoms can include: fatigue, fever, chills, muscle aches, headaches, dizziness, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. To a novice, those symptoms sound pretty generic. Like the flu. Or the common cold. Or the never isolated COVID-19. Just read the information on these contrived maladies, provided by the discredited CDC and WHO, with a little discernment. The Medical Industrial Complex in all its splendor. And oh, yes- “Conspiracy theorists” claim “Hanta” means fraud. In Hebrew.

The “experts” also inform us that the primary way the Hantavirus spreads from human to human is through sexual intercourse. Well, we should all be breathing a sign of relief over that. I am not exactly in the loop, but it’s my distinct impression that people, especially young people, are having less sex than perhaps any time since when the Puritans and Calvinism reigned supreme. If you’re looking for a real epidemic, forget rodent excretions. How about the Incel Virus? We have more 30, 40, and 50 year old male virgins in America than this country has ever seen. I think that’s the case in other areas of the world. Young women have been indoctrinated to “not need” men, and thus they don’t really want them. Young men have been forced to the extreme of “going their own way” without female companionship. It’s all very sad, but good news for a virus that is spread through sexual contact. Just stop having sex and there will be nothing to worry about. And refrain from intimate contact with rodents.

It appears as if Donald Trump is once again going to play the dastardly villain here, as he did during the incredibly successful COVID Psyop. He is already being blasted in the state controlled media for “downplaying” this dire threat, and for cutting funding to study the Hantavirus last year. Exactly how would they “study” it? Use prisoners, mental patients, and orphans to test what happens if you French Kiss a rodent? Our government has historically used prisoners, mental patients, and orphans for all kinds of hideous experiments. I covered this in detail in my book Crimes and Coverups in American Politics: 1776-1963. We’ve seen this movie before. Remember, Trumpenstein “downplayed” the seriousness of COVID, as well. But he signed the lockdown orders, and pushed the dangerous warp speed vaccine, He mocked Fauci, but refuses to prosecute him. Naturally, The Simpsons saw it coming. The Hantavirus was referenced on the X-Files in the 1990s. They should have an Emmy for Predictive Programming.

Much as he did during COVID, Trump dismissed the concerns of “journalists” who have been assigned to peddle fear porn, by proclaiming: “We should be fine.” Then, asked by these laughable representatives of a “free press,” if the public should be worried about the “outbreak” spreading, Trumpenstein replied, “I hope not.” Scientific American was among those most alarmed, as they explained, “In 2025 the Trump administration eliminated funding for a group that had been running a pilot project aimed at studying the type of hantavirus that has been confirmed to be behind an ongoing outbreak on a cruise ship.” This project was “conducted through the West African Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases (WAC-EID), one of 10 centers that comprised the Centers for Research in Emerging Infectious Diseases (CREID) network.” All these centers “were shuttered last year after the National Institutes of Health decided the research was ‘unsafe.’” Wait, so they’re upset that he stopped funding research that was determined to be “unsafe?” And why are cruise ships always involved in these productions? Have you seen the video of the very, very gay passenger on the Hantavirus cruise? Assuring us it’s “real?” He invited immediate comparisons to Erika Kirk. I went on one cruise in my life. That was before that guy got knocked off on his honeymoon. And fake “pandemics?” None for me, please.

I’m certainly not predicting that this big, beautiful fake virus is going to become a worldwide, or even just American psyop. I’m not suggesting that they will sell it like they sold COVID. They’ve made doomsters believe that SARS, and the monkey virus, and so many others, were going to shutdown society, just like COVID. They always pulled back, and the potential “pandemics” came and went without anyone noticing. But they really upped the ante during the COVID Psyop, and there was zero pushback from the world’s population. And the same front man- Trumpenstein- is in the Oval Office. Ready to send out conflicting signals, as always. I do think there would be less compliance with their ridiculous “mandates,” which are not laws and definitely not based on “science.” But it’s clear we’re still outnumbered. Actress Jean Smart has spoken out, claiming that her husband died from the Hantavirus in 2021. No disrespect intended, but it was unheard of then, at the peak of COVID. Did he come into questionable contact with rodents? Who was he having sex with? Gene Hackman’s 65 year old wife, we are now told, died from the Hantavirus. Recall how they both were strangely found dead at home in 2025. Who was she having sex with?

As if all this wasn’t enough to worry a befuddled public, Iran is now being accused of using mine-carrying “Kamikaze Dolphins” to attack US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. The poor Suicide Dolphins probably aren’t being promised any virgins in the afterlife, either. The whole Strait of Hormuz confuses me. I don’t know if the Suicide Dolphins are being used to blow it open, because the United States is blocking it, or if they’re assigned to blow up the US ships that try to pass through the Strait that Iran has opened to everyone but America. And Israel, I guess. But it doesn’t look like Israel is doing much fighting. Just bombing civilians, as usual. They’ve already told Trumpenstein that there will be no non-Irish boots on the ground. Psycho Pete Hegseth cryptically told the press, “I can’t confirm or deny whether we have kamikaze dolphins, but I can confirm they don’t.” Well, I’m sure that our Suicide Dolphins would be better than anyone else’s. Where are all the animal rights protesters?

Really, shouldn’t this absurd story about kamikaze dolphins make us all question the whole “suicide bomber” claims? I’ve never found such stories credible. But it plays into the whole “terrorist” mythos. What is the source for the promise of 72 virgins after death (the number seems to vary) which seemingly motivates suicide bombers? Such outlandishness isn’t found anywhere in the Quran, leading reasonable people to suspect it originated from the Mossad or the CIA. By dehumanizing Muslims, they have managed to convince too many good people that they are willing to kill others, with the belief that Allah will reward them for doing so. Primarily through gratuitous sex with a whole lot of different females. That sounds more like the fantasy of a nonbelieving incel than a religious “fanatic.” What is the difference between “devout” and “fanatic?” If there were Muslims whose goal was to be a suicide bomber, wouldn’t they be offended by being replaced by Dolphins, doing the work fanatics won’t?

Remember when the beloved Hillary Clinton claimed that Qadafi/Kadafy/Gaddafi had loaded his troops with Viagra, so that they could become literal raping machines? Talk about projection! If you’ve read my aforementioned Crimes and Coverups book, and/or my latest, American Memory Hole, you know just how much raping our young men in uniform have been guilty of, going back at least to Sherman’s genocidal march through Georgia. And they didn’t need any Viagra. They didn’t discriminate, either. The Union boys loved violating the Black females. During the “good war,” the “greatest generation” raped lots of Germans, and so many Japanese that they had to build a special brothel to accommodate them. During our forever war in Iraq, we all saw the photos of the naked male Iraqi prisoners, with fluorescent bulbs and the like shoved up their anuses. With a pretty, smiling female U.S. soldier beside them. And if Seymour Hersh can be believed, they raped a bunch of boys in front of their mothers.

My friend Tony Arterburn tells me that during WWII, the Allies tried using bats, with little explosive devices strapped on their tiny backs. So I don’t doubt for a second that our government would, if they could, utilize kamikaze dolphins. Or sharks. Or whales. Or shrimp. How far removed was the MKULTRA mind control research, in particular the idea of Manchurian Candidates, from a suicide bomber? It wasn’t “terrorists” who developed those programs. And the “terrorists” didn’t invent “COVID-19” either, and falsify all those statistics to make it appear that it was a new Black Plague. Maybe they can figure out a way to strap vials containing the Hantavirus to the backs of these patriotic dolphins. Unleash the Hantavirus on the Iranians. If they don’t like that, we can send some pretty female soldiers, or even better some transitioned soldiers, to deliver fluorescent light bulbs to lonely Iranian males. Think of how humiliated they’ll be, with transwomen violating them like that. Wage war on us for 47 years, will you?

COVID demonstrated that nothing motivates a society, indeed a world, to become obedient more than fear. The fear of an invisible virus which could kill them. Feeling okay? You’re just asymptomatic. You could still have it! Get the PCR test right away. You know, the one with the 90 percent false positive rate. The one repudiated by the man who developed it, who had the proper sense of drama to die right on the eve of “COVID-19” commanding the attention of the entire world. And call your doctor. Always call your doctor. Don’t decide for yourself. Be responsible and think of others. Did I mention that you should call your doctor? The PCR test isn’t the only discredited one you can take, you know. You may think you’re healthy, but we’ll determine that. If this new Hantavirus whipper snapper requires a vaccine, get it. Get every booster. There may be variants. Endless variants. For years. You’ll have more things stuck in you than Madonna did at the height of her incomprehensible fame.

We are hearing the same codewords that we heard repeatedly during the Greatest Psyop in the History of the World. America, especially under the rudderless leadership of the stupid, orange, micro-penis Trumpenstein, is “unequipped” to deal with the next pandemic. Or unprepared- that works just as well, and isn’t a juvenile pun. The honorable Bill Gates, renowned for catching a venereal disease from Russian babes on Epstein’s Lolita Island, is being lauded now, for his warning about the “next pandemic” in an interview last year. And his website named the Hantavirus as the next pandemic. In 2021. Insider information? Gates is forever warning about future pandemics. It excites him even more than anything Jeffrey Epstein could offer. As a lifelong eugenicist, Gates is obsessed with millions, even billions of human beings dying. He pretends that he would be horrified by this; that he is, in fact, opposed to such a culling of the herd. But his perpetually inappropriate smile suggests otherwise. And his answer to everything is more fear, more vaccinations, and more boosters.

It’s funny. I rarely recall hearing the word “pandemic” throughout the course of my life. I knew about the Black Plague in the Middle Ages. I knew that there had been an exceptionally bad flu during the WWI era. But there was never a sense that we should be “preparing” for some devastating national, or international health crisis. Since “pandemics” appear to be pretty common now, where were they from 1920-2020? Sure, you had Bill Gates and the WHO and the CDC staging a series of “simulations” which prophesized “COVID-19” with eerie accuracy. But the idea that people could be conditioned to wear ludicrous looking masks everywhere, and stay six feet apart, was unthinkable. To be fair, if a real scourge like cancer can be pretty much unknown before 1900, and no one question where it came from, why can’t “pandemics” just pop up every few years, to fulfill one of Bill Gates’s numerous predictions of them? Most people now think “COVID” is a permanent thing.

I wrote the only book that exposes the entire “COVID” fraud from the very beginning, Masking the Truth: How COVID-19 Destroyed Civil Liberties and Shut Down the World. They’ve done everything they can to stop people from reading it. It’s the most shadow banned book in the world. I don’t want to write one about a Hantavirus psyop. I really hope this turns out to be just another monkey virus. No one with a huge platform has ever told the whole truth about “COVID.” It wasn’t created in a Wuhan lab by the dastardly Chinese. It was the flu. Period. Just like Hantavirus will be, if they decide to stage another worldwide production. And I don’t believe “suicide bombers” are any more real than “COVID.” They lie to us all the time. To distract us from the misery so many of us are enduring. To distract us from their continuous crimes and corruption. To distract us from the potholes in the streets and our inadequate wages. To distract us from skyrocketing autism rates and plummeting life expectancy.

The people have to bear some blame here. I don’t care how many indoctrination classes you sat through in public school and college. How many films and TV shows with obvious messaging you watched. I sat through them, too. So did the millions of people who, against all odds, have awakened to the corruption and tyranny. They didn’t perform frontal lobotomies on you. You have the capacity to critically think. To ignore the cultural programming. How stupid would you have to be to fall for another “pandemic?” Or to believe in suicide dolphins? We should all tremble at the prospect of having our fate in the hands of a jury of our peers. Maybe they’ll go too far, with something like a fake alien invasion. But after “COVID,” can they go too far? They shut down the entire world! Don’t let it happen again, even if they back off with the Hantavirus.

Be prepared, as Bill Gates says. But not for a “pandemic.” Be prepared for authoritarian overreach. Remember, opposition to tyranny is obedience to God.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 18:25

McDonald’s Worker Axed After Viral Video Shows Her Shoving Fries In Mouth Then Back In Box

McDonald’s Worker Axed After Viral Video Shows Her Shoving Fries In Mouth Then Back In Box

A Massachusetts McDonald’s worker was axed from her job after a revolting video captured her putting French fries into her mouth and then placing them back into a box, the Worcester Telegram & Gazette reports.

“So you want French fries today, right?” the worker appears to ask a customer while looking into the camera as she puts the fries from her mouth back in a box.

The vile clip went viral last week, prompting Southbridge police to launch an investigation alongside local health officials.

“We are also working to determine whether the food was ultimately served to a customer and to identify any individual who may have been affected,” police said, according to the New York Post.

The nauseating scene triggered an immediate customer backlash at the restaurant, leaving its owners in full damage-control mode.

The actions of these individuals are unacceptable and do not reflect our organization’s food safety standards or values. We conducted an internal review, and they are no longer employed by our organization,” the Spadea and Balducci families said in a joint statement obtained by the Post.

“We are proactively working with local authorities and the local health department, who found no public health concerns or violations. The wellbeing and safety of our Southbridge community remains our top priority.”

The fired employee, who has yet to be publicly identified, will also face criminal charges at the Dudley District Court.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 18:00

Graham Calls For ‘Short But Forceful’ New Strikes On Iran, Complains Waiting For ‘Status Quo’ Talks Looks Weak

Graham Calls For ‘Short But Forceful’ New Strikes On Iran, Complains Waiting For ‘Status Quo’ Talks Looks Weak

At a moment the US-Iran ceasefire is officially on life support, and with the world’s most critical energy chokepoint remaining blocked while the American consumer is paying the price at the pump, beltway hawks are calling for renewed major military action to ‘solve’ the standoff.

Foremost among them, Senator Lindsey Graham, hit the Sunday news circuit to urge President Trump to rip up the current playbook and resume US major military strikes on Tehran. According to Graham, the current diplomatic paralysis and the shuttered Strait of Hormuz are only fueling Iran’s strategic position while inflicting severe economic pain domestically.

He has perhaps picked up on the bad optics of Trump’s constant barrage of Truth Social posts which often seem written in an exasperated and impatience style.

“I think the status quo is hurting us all,” Graham told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” – as he made the case for using military pressure to get the Iranians to comply with Washington demands on their nuclear program and other issues.

The well-known hawk from South Carolina correctly observed: “The longer the [Strait of Hormuz] is closed, the more we try to pursue a deal that never happens, the stronger Iran gets.” However, this reflects one of those ‘one more escalation step and the problem will be fixed’ approaches among the NeoCons. The ‘just one more thing’ usually perpetuates the quagmire. 

He turned to urging the president to “weaken them further” given that “there’s more targets to be had” – which is pretty much also the Israeli line.

Graham further said there are no signs that after the prior 38-day bombing campaign that Iran’s leadership has abandoned what he called the Islamic Republic’s supposed goal “to terrorize the world, destroy Israel, come after us.”

“Gas prices will come down when you put Iran in a box,Graham added. 

Another interesting moment in the interview came when the GOP senator seemed in agreement with Trump on not caring about Americans’ finances in comparison with the Iran nuclear question:

Trump drew criticism last week for saying he was not weighing Americans’ finances in the talks, comments that stirred Republican anxiety ahead of the midterm elections. Graham dismissed that concern.

“It’s worth losing my job,” he told Welker. “If I had to give my job up to make sure Iran would never have a nuclear weapon, I would do it.”

Iran is meanwhile still not backing down, after last Friday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear that Tehran has “no trust” in Washington given its “contradictory messages”.

Graham calling for a “short but forceful” new military escalation against Iran…

He reiterated that Washington needs to get serious, while it is US officials saying Iran must show willingness to make compromise. At this point it seems Washington is the more desperate to get a deal done, but each side is waiting out the other.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 15:45

Trump: Holding Off ‘Planned’ Attack On Iran At Request Of Gulf Allies, ‘Deal Will Be Made’

Trump: Holding Off ‘Planned’ Attack On Iran At Request Of Gulf Allies, ‘Deal Will Be Made’

Summary

  • Trump says holding off on ‘planned’ Tuesday attack upon request of Gulf states.
  • US denies earlier Tasnim report of agreeing to lift oil sanctions during talks; Trump tells NYP ‘not open’ to Iran concessions.
  • Trump calls for Iran’s total military surrender in Monday morning Truth Social post.
  • Oil rebounds on Tasnim reporting Iranian denial: Tehran “under no circumstances” will negotiate nuclear issue as part of an end to the war.
  • A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
  • Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Yes 26% · No 75%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump: Asked by Gulf States to Hold Off Attacking Iran

Here we go again: Trump says he’s holding off a planned attack which was supposedly “scheduled” for Tuesday, at the request of Gulf leaders, including Qatar, KSA, and UAE. “A deal will be made,” he says…

Oil drops on the headlines, amid the ongoing roulette…

Iranian President Somewhat Defensive

A message from Iran’s president, perhaps aimed at those arguing that trying to engage the US has run its course. Words aimed at IRGC and domestic population, it appears…

“Dialogue does not mean surrender…” will “safeguard the interests and honor of Iran.”

Trump ‘Not Open’ to Any Concessions for Tehran: NYP Interview

Another repetition of the weeks-long stale-mated reality: …so Trump is ‘not open’ to any concessions, but Iran deal happening ‘soon’ – we are yet again told, as the Iranians themselves haven’t appeared to budge on anything.

President Trump told The NY Post on Monday he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks. Highlights:

  • And in an ominous foreshadowing, Trump said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
  • In the brief phone interview The Post, Trump seemingly shut the door to Iran’s Sunday offer for a diplomatic talks.
  • Asked about his Friday remark that he’d be willing to accept a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, Trump interjected: “I’m not open to anything right now.”
  • The president declined to get into any detail. “I can’t really talk to you about it. Too many things are happening,” he said.
  • “I can tell you they want to make a deal more than ever, because they know we’re—what’s going to be happening soon,” Trump said.
  • Questioned about regional source claims that Iran is attempting to “wait out” Washington on both the nuclear issue and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said he “hadn’t heard that.”

US Denies Tasnim Report It Agreed to Lift Iran Oil Sanctions

And the denials keep rolling in. First via CNBC:

…as the US side does not seem very confidently in control of the situation – quite the opposite:

Just like that, back to square zero once again we go… and back to headline roulette

US PLANS NEW RUSSIAN OIL WAIVER AS IRAN WAR CRUNCHES SUPPLIES

US DENIES REPORT IT AGREED TO LIFT IRAN OIL SANCTIONS: CNBC

Steady climb in oil continues on the denials…

Trump Monday Morning Truth Social ‘Threat’

Like clockwork, the start of the week threat from Trump on TS… same as the old threats:

And bearish news via Axios:

Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios.

Oil Quickly Rebounding on Iranian Denial

In a far too familiar pattern, just before US market open on Monday, a slew of optimistic Iran headlines saw oil erase weekend gains, which mostly came through Saudi Arabia’s state-funded Al Arabiya, as well as Reuters… only to be followed by Iranian officials rejecting the substance of these reports, putting things firmly back at square one. 

Tasnim has newly cited Iranian government sources who seek to make clear that “Iran under no circumstances” will engage in new nuclear negotiations for an end to the war. Contradicting the earlier morning reports, it still sees negotiations to find peace in the war with the US as separate from the nuclear file. “Fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain”, Tasnim reports, citing a source.

“Despite some changes in the new American text, fundamental differences stemming from the Americans’ exaggeration and lack of realism remain,” Tasnim writes, citing the Iranian source. According to more of the statements per state media:

  • “Iran will not abandon its firm and principled positions on ending the war and realizing the rights of the Iranian people”.
  • “Iran’s frozen assets must be returned to the Iranian people in a transparent and definitive manner, and paper promises are of no use”.
  • “Despite some promises, there is disagreement about the return of the frozen funds”.
  • “Iran’s determination regarding the necessity of paying compensation by the Americans for the military aggression against Iran is very serious”.
  • “The Americans are far from Iran’s demands regarding its amount and some other issues.”
  • “the Americans are still trying to tie the negotiations to end the war to the nuclear issue, which is against logic and Iran will not agree to it. The Americans must understand that Iran will in no way agree to an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments”.
  • “Iran has not and does not have any intention of building nuclear weapons, and this claim is just an excuse and deception by the Americans. This issue has also been emphasized in the new text”.

Oil reacted as expected to this official ‘denial’ of the prior optimism – quickly rebounding, also as Trump is said to be “losing patience” with the progress of talks. A US source has told Al Jazeera Iran has “days not weeks” to show progress.

The optimism and then denials happened within a span of a couple hours…

Tasnim: Another Iranian Ship Breaks Through US Blockade Line

Iranian state media is claiming that a Iranian oil tanker under US sanctions that was off the coast of India two weeks ago has now docked at Kharg Island, having broken through the US naval blockade. Tasnim reports that “the LPG tanker passed through the US blockade line undetected and entered Iranian waters.” 

The Pentagon has been asserting an essentially airtight blockade on ‘illicit’ ships going to or from Iranian ports. CENTCOM has said it has turned around at least 75 vessels, while Iranian media has since the blockade’s start touted several ships making it through.

Long-Term Nuclear Freeze on Table

Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya early Monday has issued a bombshell if true (but still very much not officially confirmed), reporting that Iran has agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling. The outlet also reports that Iran has withdrawn its demand for compensation, instead demanding economic concessions. However, this could be highly dubious, given over the past several days Tehran has not shown willingness to back down from this demand of compensation.

It also seems Russia’s offer to take and temporarily hold Iran’s enriched uranium is being taken seriously. Here are the alleged “leaks” of the working draft peace document:

  • Working on a condition transfer of enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US.
  • Seeking multiple international guarantees for any agreement.
  • Wants Pakistan and Oman to have a ‘role’ in any ‘clash’ in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Seeking a political formation that allows Iran to save face.
  • Separate the maritime route from nuclear issues.

Oil pushes lower on the additional headlines, following initial reports that the US would lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiating period…

As a reminder from days ago: “US President Donald Trump said Friday that he would accept a 20-year suspension of the uranium enrichment at the heart of Iran’s rogue nuclear program if Tehran gave a “real” guarantee, in an apparent shift from his previous demand that Iran permanently halt its program and his pledge to ensure Iran can never attain nuclear weapons.”

US Lifting Oil Sanctions During Negotiation Period: Tasnim

Tasnim news agency says Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14 points through Pakistan. State sources say the focus by Iranian leadership is to end the war and build trust. This as Pakistan’s interior minister has extended his Tehran visit for a third day.

In this context a source close to the negotiating team reportedly told Tasnim that, unlike their previous texts, Washington agreed in the new text to lift Iran’s oil sanctions during the negotiation period. This is a first big sign of progress since the White House reportedly sent five ‘counter’ conditions to Tehran, which only offered a partial sanctions reduction.

Per more from Tasnim: 

  • Waiving sanctions means temporarily lifting sanctions.

  • Iran insists that lifting all sanctions on Iran should be part of the US’s commitments.

  • However, the US has proposed suspending OFAC until a final understanding is reached.

The headline was enough to push oil down, erasing the gains over the weekend…

Another blurb via TASS, offering a little more in terms of likely conflicting interpretations and expectations:

According to the source, unlike in its previous proposals, the US has agreed in its new offer to suspend oil sanctions against Iran for the duration of the talks. The source noted that Tehran, for its part, insists on the lifting of all sanctions, while Washington is only ready to waive US Treasury sanctions until a final agreement is reached.

More Latest Developments

According to more of the latest headlines via Al Jazeera:

  • Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says talks between Iran and the US are continuing through Pakistan.
  • He added that Iranian and Omani technical teams met in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for ensuring safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Kuwait and Qatar have condemned drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, which officials say originated from Iraqi airspace.
  • The Israeli army says it struck more than 30 targets in southern Lebanon, which it claims were used by Hezbollah to attack Israeli forces.
  • The Israeli navy has seized vessels that were part of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, arresting 100 activists on board.

And more developments via Newsquawk:

  • US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
  • US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
  • Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that “we don’t have much time”, adding that both countries “keep changing their goalposts”.
  • Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
  • Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
  • Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
  • Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
  • Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas’s armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
  • UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
  • Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.

* * *

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out “what’s next” – while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports. Currently the sides are merely trying to get back to the table.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 15:10

Watch $134 Million Go Up In Smoke As Navy Jets Collide At Air Show

Watch $134 Million Go Up In Smoke As Navy Jets Collide At Air Show

As if Pentagon losses in the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran weren’t already sapping them enough already, American taxpayers were losers again on Sunday when two U.S. Navy EA18-G Growlers blew up in spectacular fashion after colliding at an air show at Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho. Four crew members ejected and were medically evaluated and said to be in stable condition.

EA18-G Growlers are used to jam and suppress enemy radar and other electronics (USAF Photo)

The aircraft were performing a maneuver for the audience at the Gunfighter Skies Air Show when they made contact and then appeared to be locked together. In an instant, the four crew members ejected. As their parachutes successfully deployed, the two jets — valued at a combined $134 million — fell to the ground together and exploded, generating a massive cloud of smoke, and necessitating a careful descent by the crew members who had to avoid landing in the flaming wreckage. Made by Boeing, the EA18-G Growler is an F/A-18 Super Hornet variant that serves as something of an “electronic bodyguard” for other aircraft, by jamming, deceiving or suppressing enemy radar and electronic systems. 

Jeff Guzzetti, an aviation safety expert, said the unusual collision in which the two jets were seemingly stuck together may have bought the crew members a few more critical moments. “It’s really striking to see,” Guzzetti told Associated Press. “It looks like they struck each other in a very unique fashion to cause them to remain intact and kind of stick to each other and that very well could have saved them.” Some social media users pointed to a wind advisory that had been issued

While the Air Force will investigate the crash, Guzzetti’s first impression was that it was not a mechanical failure: “It appears to be a pilot issue to me...Rendezvousing with another airplane in formation flight is challenging, and it has to be done just right to prevent exactly this kind of thing.” The jets landed in an empty patch of land far from the audience. The crash started a brush fire that torched 25 acres, and forced the remainder of the show to be cancelled.  It was the first edition of the Gunfighter Skies Air Show since 2018, when a hang glider pilot was killed in a crash. 

The four aviators were able to land outside the inferno

The two jets are part of the Electronic Attack Squadron 129 at Whidbey Island, Washington. They become the third and fourth Growlers from Whidbey Island to be destroyed in just the past 19 months. In October 2024, both female crew members died when they crashed near Mount Rainer. There were no fatalities in a February 2025 crash in San Diego Bay, in which the two male pilots ejected before their jet met this end: 

Another aviation expert, Safety Operating Systems CEO John Cox, told AP that the maneuvers used to dazzle air-show crowds leave little room for error. “Air show flying is demanding. It has very little tolerance,” Cox said. “The people who do it are very good and it’s a small margin for error. I’m glad everybody was able to get out.” It’s enough to make you wonder whether such demonstrations are a reasonable use of taxpayers’ assets — to say nothing of the risk to the crew members. 

The Pentagon’s loss of the two 67-million-dollar jets comes amid a very costly US war on Iran waged in tandem with Israel. On April 10, The War Zone reported that US forces had seen at least 39 aircraft destroyed at that point, including 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones, four F-15E Strike Eagles, two MC-130J Commando II’s, an E-3G Sentry, two KC-135 Stratotankers, a CH-47F Chinook, two MH-6M Little Bird helicopters and an A-10C Warthog. 

Last week, the Pentagon owned up to $29 billion in costs of the war to date, though there are plenty of skeptics who think it’s likely far higher — along with some insiders. In late April, unnamed US officials who were familiar with the DOD’s internal numbers said it was closer to $50 billion. That’s just the Pentagon’s tab — it doesn’t begin to account for the cost being imposed on American families and businesses via rising outlays for fuel, food and seemingly everything else. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 15:05

Saylor’s Strategy Scoops Up Another $2B Bitcoin, Holdings Reach 843,738 BTC

Saylor’s Strategy Scoops Up Another $2B Bitcoin, Holdings Reach 843,738 BTC

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, made another massive BTC acquisition last week as the crypto asset hovered around $80,000.

Strategy acquired 24,869 Bitcoin (BTC) for $2.01 billion between May 11 and 17, according Monday’s 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Source: SEC

The purchases were made at an average price of $80,985 per BTC, raising Strategy’s cost basis to $75,700.

The company now holds 843,738 BTC, acquired for about $63.87 billion. At the time of publication, the holdings were valued at roughly $65.3 billion, according to CoinGecko.

STRC sales account for 97% of the entire purchase

Strategy funded nearly all of its latest Bitcoin purchase through sales of its STRC perpetual preferred stock, which accounted for about 97% of total proceeds.

According to the SEC filing, Strategy raised roughly $1.95 billion from the sale of about 19.5 million STRC shares.

In comparison, Strategy’s Class A common stock (MSTR) contributed a smaller share of funding, generating about $83.7 million in net proceeds from the sale of 430,344 shares.

Source: SEC

The outcome was broadly in line with expectations from STRC Live, which reported heavy STRC activity during the week, including a record trading day of 15.1 million shares, with estimated purchases of around 15,466 BTC.

The structure mirrors previous large bitcoin buys this year, including a 34,164 BTC purchase, Strategy’s third-largest on record, which was also largely financed through preferred securities rather than common equity.

Strategy co-founder Saylor previously signaled that the company would add to its Bitcoin holdings by posting a chart showing Strategy’s purchase history with 109 Bitcoin acquisition events since 2020.

Its 843,738 BTC now far outpaces BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, which holds around 817,000 BTC on behalf of its clients.

The purchases came a week after Saylor raised the possibility of selling Bitcoin during Strategy’s recent earnings call, framing it as a way to better protect the asset’s long-term value.

He said that sticking too rigidly to a “never sell” Bitcoin approach could, over time, work against the very asset the company is built to accumulate and hold.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 14:50

Senate Parliamentarian Rejects White House Ballroom Funding In Reconciliation Bill

Senate Parliamentarian Rejects White House Ballroom Funding In Reconciliation Bill

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The Senate’s nonpartisan referee has rejected a bid by Republicans to fund $1 billion for the White House ballroom expansion and other White House security upgrades.

According to Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, the $1 billion proposal breaks the rules of the reconciliation process. As parliamentarian, MacDonough’s go-ahead is traditionally required to approve individual items passed under the partisan process.

Republicans are seeking to use the reconciliation process—which is not subject to the filibuster—to pass $72 billion in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection, which has been blocked by Democrats in the wake of fatal shootings of U.S. citizens by immigration agents. The GOP bill would fund the agencies through 2029, the end of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Trump has long pushed for the addition of a major ballroom to the East Wing of the White House, particularly in the wake of an alleged assassination attempt while attending an event away from the executive mansion.

The Secret Service had requested the money after the incident at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner last month.

Republicans had pursued including this funding in an immigration enforcement funding package.

According to Democrats, MacDonough’s ruling holds that funding for a project as large as the proposed White House expansion is too broad to be included in the filibuster-proof bill.

It’s unclear which, if any, segments of the GOP proposal can be included in the final funding bill.

The parliamentarian left the bulk of the bill’s immigration language intact, barring some minor provisions such as the one providing funding for Customs and Border Protection to hire, train, and pay agents. Republicans have indicated that these sections can be revised and retained in the legislation.

A model of the White House and proposed ballroom (R) is displayed during a ballroom fundraising dinner with President Donald Trump in the East Room of the White House on Oct. 15, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Technically, Republicans can ignore MacDonough’s rulings, which are ultimately considered advisory; however, respect for the parliamentarian’s authority is so deeply embedded in the upper chamber’s culture that this rarely happens.

Ignoring or overriding a ruling on a budget reconciliation bill would set a precedent that could deeply weaken the filibuster, an eventuality that members of both parties have long wished to avoid.

In 2021, after the Senate parliamentarian rejected a bid by Democrats to include a $15 minimum wage in a reconciliation package, some Democrats called for the ruling to be overturned; however, these calls were ultimately rejected.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) speaks to members of the press in Washington on April 14, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

A spokesman for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) wrote in a post on X that “none of this is abnormal” during the complicated budget process that Republicans are using to try to pass the immigration enforcement and White House security money on a partisan basis.

“Redraft. Refine. Resubmit,” Wrasse said in the post.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) framed the ruling as a win for Democrats.

“Republicans tried to make taxpayers foot the bill for Trump’s billion-dollar ballroom. Senate Democrats fought back — and blew up their first attempt,” Schumer wrote in a May 17 post on X.

“Americans don’t want a ballroom. They don’t need a ballroom. And they sure as hell should not be forced to pay for one,” Schumer added, vowing that Democrats would continue to seek to block funding for the White House expansion.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 14:15

Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines

Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

$397 billion. That’s how much “Buffett cash” now sits on Berkshire Hathaway’s balance sheet after Greg Abel’s first quarter as CEO. Warren Buffett left $373 billion behind when he stepped down at the end of 2025. Three months later, after Abel’s debut earnings report on Saturday, the hoard had grown by another $24 billion. The figure is bigger than the GDP of Hong Kong or Norway. It exceeds the market value of every American corporation except a tiny handful of mega-cap names. And it earned roughly four to five percent in Treasury bills while the S&P 500 ripped through three of its best consecutive years in modern history.

That Buffett cash hoard has also created a lot of speculation, innuendo, and assumptions, which is what I want to walk through in today’s discussion. Primarily, what that cash hoard actually represents, the popular theories explaining it, and what it really costs shareholders to hold.

The headline cash hoard number is striking on its own. Berkshire Hathaway ended Q1 2026 with a record $397.4 billion in cash and short-term Treasury bills, surpassing the prior $381.7 billion peak set in Q3 2025 and adding another $24 billion to what Buffett left behind. Of that, roughly $52 billion sits in plain cash and equivalents, with the bulk parked in Treasury bills earning short-term yields. By the time Abel released his first quarterly print on May 2, Berkshire was one of the largest holders of US Treasury debt in the world.

This wasn’t an accident. Between 2022 and 2024, Berkshire sold a net $172.93 billion in equities, with $134.1 billion of that coming in 2024 alone. Buffett trimmed his Apple position from nearly 50% of the equity portfolio down to roughly 22%. He cut Bank of America by more than half. Berkshire stopped repurchasing its own shares for nearly two years, sitting out twenty-one consecutive months as the stock traded above what Buffett considered its intrinsic value. Buybacks finally resumed under Abel on March 4, 2026, but only at $234 million in Q1, a token figure against a balance sheet of this size. In Q1 alone, Berkshire sold another $24.1 billion in equities against $16 billion in purchases, a net $8.1 billion reduction that pushed the cash pile to its new record.

The selling was deliberate, sustained, and almost entirely contrary to the prevailing market mood. While CNBC anchors debated whether the AI revolution was just getting started, the world’s most patient investor was quietly heading for the exits. Abel, in his first quarter, did exactly the same thing.

The History Of Buffett’s Cash Hoard

Berkshire’s cash position has always been countercyclical. When markets get cheap, the pile shrinks. When markets get expensive, it grows. That pattern has held for decades, but the magnitude in this cycle is unlike anything we’ve seen before.

In 2014, Berkshire’s cash and Treasury position hovered around $63 billion. By 2019, it had grown to $128 billion as bull market valuations stretched higher. The pandemic crash in early 2020 drew Buffett out for a brief window, when he deployed capital into Occidental Petroleum and Chevron. Those deployments barely dented the larger trend, and by the end of 2022, Buffett’s cash hoard had only modestly receded to roughly $109 billion despite the bear market that year.

Then came 2023 and 2024. As the S&P 500 ripped through gains of roughly 26 percent and 25 percent in consecutive years, Buffett didn’t chase. He sold. The cash hoard nearly doubled in 2024 alone, climbing from $168 billion to over $325 billion. By Q3 2025, it crested at $381.7 billion before a slight deployment trimmed it to $373.3 billion at year-end. Then in Abel’s first quarter at the helm, the hoard climbed to a fresh record of $397.4 billion as Berkshire kept selling, kept compounding T-bill yield, and continued to find few large-scale opportunities at acceptable prices.

The shape of that chart isn’t a coincidence. It’s the visual representation of a value investor’s discipline meeting a market that increasingly didn’t offer value. And the bar that matters most now is the one on the right: the discipline didn’t end with Buffett’s retirement.

Theory Versus Reality

The financial press has spent the past two years generating theories about Buffett’s cash position, and Saturday’s record Q1 print has reignited every one of them. Some are reasonable. Most miss the structural drivers entirely. Let’s separate the popular narratives from the actual mechanics.

Theory: Buffett Was Calling A Crash

This is the most viral interpretation. The Oracle of Omaha sees a bubble. He’s positioning Berkshire to scoop up bargains when the market collapses. The Buffett Indicator, which compares total US market capitalization to GDP, reached its highest level in history at the end of Q1 2026.

The math behind the indicator is straightforward. Take the total market value of all US publicly traded equities, divide by US nominal GDP, and you get a single ratio that Buffett himself called in a 2001 Fortune interview “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” With Q1 2026 nominal GDP at $31.86 trillion (BEA advance estimate, released April 30, 2026) and total market capitalization near record highs, the ratio has surpassed every prior peak in the data series.

Two readings matter at this moment. The Federal Reserve’s broader corporate equities measure, divided by GDP, is roughly 232%, the highest level on record. The narrower Wilshire 5000 measure divided by GDP comes in at approximately 215%. Both versions are in record territory. Both are roughly two standard deviations above their long-term trend lines.

There’s some truth in the crash-call interpretation. Buffett has openly cited valuation discipline in his shareholder letters, and Abel echoed that language Saturday when he told shareholders Berkshire “can move it from insurance to non-insurance, into equities, or if we so choose, to hold it in cash.” But framing either of them as a market timer misreads the process. They don’t sell because they predict a crash. They sell because they can no longer find prices that justify the underlying business economics. Those are different statements that happen to look identical from the outside. The indicator above is consistent with the decision to stop buying. It’s not the same as a forecast that the market will fall next quarter.

Theory: Buffett Lost His Edge

The narrative that Buffett, at 95, simply couldn’t keep up with a bull market led by technology gained traction during 2023 and 2024. Berkshire trailed the S&P 500 in both years. Berkshire has now trailed the index by more than 30 percentage points since Buffett signaled his plan to step down last May. The Magnificent Seven were running, AI was the dominant story, and Berkshire’s portfolio looked stodgy by comparison.

However, I’ve heard this critique my entire career. It was wrong every previous time, and I’d argue it’s wrong now. Buffett’s framework is the same one he used in 1969, 1999, and 2007. The framework doesn’t fail. The market environments that cause its short-term underperformance are themselves brief and mean-reverting. And Abel’s decision to keep selling in his first quarter signals the framework isn’t going anywhere.

Reality: Berkshire Is Too Big For Its Own Process

Here’s the part that doesn’t make headlines but matters most. Berkshire’s market cap is now approaching $1 trillion. Buffett has said for years that “there remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at Berkshire.” When you need to put $50 billion or more to work in a single position to move the dial on a balance sheet that size, your universe of investable opportunities shrinks dramatically.

Add in the 20% takeover premium that Berkshire would have to pay to acquire any meaningful target, and the math gets brutal. A potential acquisition trading at 22x forward earnings quickly becomes 26x or 27x after the premium. That’s not a value investment, but rather a momentum trade dressed up in a board resolution.

Reality: Treasury Bills Were Paying You To Wait

The single most overlooked factor in this entire conversation is yield. From 2023 through most of 2025, short-term Treasury bills paid roughly 4-5%. That’s nothing. Berkshire generated about $8 billion in interest and other investment income in just the first three quarters of 2024, compared to $4.2 billion in the same period of 2023. Q1 2026 operating earnings just printed at $11.35 billion, up 18% year over year, with insurance underwriting profits up 28%. Net income more than doubled to $10.1 billion. The cash isn’t just sitting there. It’s compounding while it waits.

When cash itself produces a real return, the opportunity cost of waiting collapses. That’s a structural change from the 2010 to 2021 environment, when zero-rate cash was a guaranteed loss relative to any positive-return asset. The hoard wasn’t growing only because Buffett was selling and Abel kept selling; it had been compounding all along.

What The Cash Hoard Cost Shareholders

This is the part of the analysis no one wants to do, honestly. So let’s do it.

If we take the cash position averaged across 2023, 2024, and 2025, roughly $250 billion blended over the three years, and ask what that capital would have earned in the S&P 500 versus what it actually earned in Treasuries, we get a meaningful number. The S&P 500 returned approximately 26% in 2023, 25% in 2024, and 16% in 2025. Compounded against the average cash position, a hypothetical S&P 500 deployment would have produced roughly $155 billion in gains over the three years. The actual Treasury bill earnings on that cash came to about $34 billion. The forgone gain was approximately $125 billion.

That’s a real number. By any reasonable measure, holding that much cash during a sustained bull run costs Berkshire shareholders meaningful upside relative to a hypothetical fully invested alternative. The trailing 12 months tell the same story. Berkshire’s Class A shares have lagged the S&P 500 by a meaningful margin over the past year as the index has continued to grind higher, and Saturday’s earnings reaction was muted despite the operating beat.

Comparing Berkshire to the S&P 500 understates what a strict value framework actually missed during this cycle. The S&P is a blended benchmark. The basket Buffett genuinely sat out was the mega-cap growth complex. The cleanest investable proxy for that basket is the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), a fund built around the largest US growth names. It captures the Magnificent Seven and the broader leadership in AI names that drove the bulk of index returns from 2020 forward.

Looking at the ten-year price-return comparison anchors the cost differently. Over the period from May 2016 through April 2026, BRK.B delivered approximately 237% in cumulative price appreciation, while MGK returned roughly 398%. That’s a CAGR gap of about 4.5 percentage points per year, compounded across a full decade.

The chart above isn’t an indictment of Buffett, but rather a mirror. The companies that drove the spread, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple at peak weighting, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, are precisely the ones Buffett either never owned in size or began trimming aggressively. The same discipline that has produced his long-term track record kept Berkshire underweight the very basket that won the decade. Whether that discipline is vindicated by an extended period of mean reversion or whether the mega-cap growth basket continues to compound at premium rates is the open question. The answer matters more for Abel’s first three years than almost any other variable he inherits.

Here’s where the analysis usually stops. It shouldn’t.

The calculation of the opportunity cost of Buffett’s cash assumes Berkshire could have deployed $397 billion into the S&P 500 at index returns. That’s a fantasy. Berkshire doesn’t allocate to index funds, even though Buffett often recommends that individual investors do. The mandate is to buy entire businesses or substantial equity stakes in great companies at fair prices. By 2024, those opportunities at Buffett’s required hurdle rate had effectively disappeared. Q1 2026 confirmed that Abel inherited the same problem.

The chart above isn’t an indictment of Buffett, but rather a mirror. The companies that drove the spread, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, at peak weighting, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, are precisely the ones Buffett either never owned in size or began trimming aggressively. The same discipline that has produced his long-term track record kept Berkshire underweight the very basket that won the decade. Whether that discipline is vindicated by an extended period of mean reversion or whether the mega-cap growth basket continues to compound at premium rates is the open question. The answer matters more for Abel’s first three years than almost any other variable he inherits.

Here’s where the analysis usually stops. It shouldn’t.

The calculation of the opportunity cost of Buffett’s cash assumes Berkshire could have deployed $397 billion into the S&P 500 at index returns. That’s a fantasy. Berkshire doesn’t allocate to index funds, even though Buffett often recommends that individual investors do. The mandate is to buy entire businesses or substantial equity stakes in great companies at fair prices. By 2024, those opportunities at Buffett’s required hurdle rate had effectively disappeared. Q1 2026 confirmed that Abel inherited the same problem.

The relevant counterfactual isn’t “S&P 500 returns minus Treasury yields.” The relevant counterfactual is what equities Berkshire could have actually bought, in the size it needed, at prices the team would defend in an annual letter. That set was very nearly empty in 2024. It remains nearly empty today.

There’s a second issue. Buffett’s actual track record requires you to measure performance over full cycles, not just the rising part of one. In 2022, when the S&P 500 fell 18%, Berkshire gained 4%. The cash looks like a drag in a bull market. However, it becomes the most valuable asset in the conglomerate’s portfolio when the cycle turns. Abel inherits that firepower at a moment of historically extreme valuations across the S&P 500. He used his first quarter to grow it rather than spend it. The full accounting will require seeing what he does with the dry powder over the next two to three years.

What This Means For Your Portfolio

If you’re managing your own money, the temptation is to map Buffett’s actions directly onto your situation. That’s a mistake. You’re not Berkshire or Warren Buffett. You don’t have a $1 trillion balance sheet, a 100+ year portfolio duration, and you don’t need to deploy $50 billion to move the needle. However, you can buy a $10,000 position in a great company without distorting the price of that company’s stock.

What you can take from this is more philosophical.

  • Yes, valuation matters. The S&P 500 entered 2026 at one of the most expensive starting points in history, with a CAPE ratio above 40 and a forward P/E that historically correlates with poor 10-year forward returns. Buffett’s cash position was a market signal even if it wasn’t a market call.

  • Sequence-of-returns risk is also real, especially for retirees or those approaching retirement. A market correction in the early years of retirement does permanent damage to a portfolio that a 30-year-old can absorb without consequence. Building a cash buffer when valuations are extreme is sound risk management, not market timing.

  • And finally, discipline beats fear of missing out. Every cycle produces a chorus of voices arguing that valuation no longer matters because of some structural innovation. In 1999, it was the internet. In 2007, it was the new financial alchemy of structured credit. In 2024, it was AI. The names change. The discipline that protects capital across cycles does not.

Regardless of where you align, the next two years will tell us whether the $397 billion cash hoard was the most prescient capital allocation decision of the cycle, or whether Abel will eventually validate the critics by paying up for assets Buffett refused to chase. His first quarter answered the immediate question. He kept selling, kept the discipline, and he let the cash hoard grow. I have my view on what comes next. The data, the discipline, and the sixty years of history all point in the same direction.

But I’ve been wrong before, and so has Buffett. We’ll find out together.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 12:40

Oil Rebounds After Iranian Denial: Will Never Give Up Nuclear Program; US Official Rejects Reports Of Lifting Sanctions For Talks

Oil Rebounds After Iranian Denial: Will Never Give Up Nuclear Program; US Official Rejects Reports Of Lifting Sanctions For Talks

Summary

  • US denies earlier Tasnim report of agreeing to lift oil sanctions during talks.
  • Trump calls for Iran’s total military surrender in Monday morning Truth Social post.
  • Oil rebounds on Tasnim reporting Iranian denial: Tehran “under no circumstances” will negotiate nuclear issue as part of an end to the war.
  • A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
  • Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.
  • Reports further add that Russia’s offer to take and hold Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile on its territory is being taken seriously.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Yes 26% · No 75%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

US Denies Tasnim Report It Agreed to Lift Iran Oil Sanctions

And the denials keep rolling in. First via CNBC:

…as the US side does not seem very confidently in control of the situation – quite the opposite:

Just like that, back to square zero once again we go… and back to headline roulette

US PLANS NEW RUSSIAN OIL WAIVER AS IRAN WAR CRUNCHES SUPPLIES

US DENIES REPORT IT AGREED TO LIFT IRAN OIL SANCTIONS: CNBC

Steady climb in oil continues on the denials…

Trump Monday Morning Truth Social ‘Threat’

Like clockwork, the start of the week threat from Trump on TS… same as the old threats:

And bearish news via Axios:

Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios.

Oil Quickly Rebounding on Iranian Denial

In a far too familiar pattern, just before US market open on Monday, a slew of optimistic Iran headlines saw oil erase weekend gains, which mostly came through Saudi Arabia’s state-funded Al Arabiya, as well as Reuters… only to be followed by Iranian officials rejecting the substance of these reports, putting things firmly back at square one. 

Tasnim has newly cited Iranian government sources who seek to make clear that “Iran under no circumstances” will engage in new nuclear negotiations for an end to the war. Contradicting the earlier morning reports, it still sees negotiations to find peace in the war with the US as separate from the nuclear file. “Fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain”, Tasnim reports, citing a source.

“Despite some changes in the new American text, fundamental differences stemming from the Americans’ exaggeration and lack of realism remain,” Tasnim writes, citing the Iranian source. According to more of the statements per state media:

  • “Iran will not abandon its firm and principled positions on ending the war and realizing the rights of the Iranian people”.
  • “Iran’s frozen assets must be returned to the Iranian people in a transparent and definitive manner, and paper promises are of no use”.
  • “Despite some promises, there is disagreement about the return of the frozen funds”.
  • “Iran’s determination regarding the necessity of paying compensation by the Americans for the military aggression against Iran is very serious”.
  • “The Americans are far from Iran’s demands regarding its amount and some other issues.”
  • “the Americans are still trying to tie the negotiations to end the war to the nuclear issue, which is against logic and Iran will not agree to it. The Americans must understand that Iran will in no way agree to an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments”.
  • “Iran has not and does not have any intention of building nuclear weapons, and this claim is just an excuse and deception by the Americans. This issue has also been emphasized in the new text”.

Oil reacted as expected to this official ‘denial’ of the prior optimism – quickly rebounding, also as Trump is said to be “losing patience” with the progress of talks. A US source has told Al Jazeera Iran has “days not weeks” to show progress.

The optimism and then denials happened within a span of a couple hours…

Tasnim: Another Iranian Ship Breaks Through US Blockade Line

Iranian state media is claiming that a Iranian oil tanker under US sanctions that was off the coast of India two weeks ago has now docked at Kharg Island, having broken through the US naval blockade. Tasnim reports that “the LPG tanker passed through the US blockade line undetected and entered Iranian waters.” 

The Pentagon has been asserting an essentially airtight blockade on ‘illicit’ ships going to or from Iranian ports. CENTCOM has said it has turned around at least 75 vessels, while Iranian media has since the blockade’s start touted several ships making it through.

Long-Term Nuclear Freeze on Table

Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya early Monday has issued a bombshell if true (but still very much not officially confirmed), reporting that Iran has agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling. The outlet also reports that Iran has withdrawn its demand for compensation, instead demanding economic concessions. However, this could be highly dubious, given over the past several days Tehran has not shown willingness to back down from this demand of compensation.

It also seems Russia’s offer to take and temporarily hold Iran’s enriched uranium is being taken seriously. Here are the alleged “leaks” of the working draft peace document:

  • Working on a condition transfer of enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US.
  • Seeking multiple international guarantees for any agreement.
  • Wants Pakistan and Oman to have a ‘role’ in any ‘clash’ in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Seeking a political formation that allows Iran to save face.
  • Separate the maritime route from nuclear issues.

Oil pushes lower on the additional headlines, following initial reports that the US would lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiating period…

As a reminder from days ago: “US President Donald Trump said Friday that he would accept a 20-year suspension of the uranium enrichment at the heart of Iran’s rogue nuclear program if Tehran gave a “real” guarantee, in an apparent shift from his previous demand that Iran permanently halt its program and his pledge to ensure Iran can never attain nuclear weapons.”

US Lifting Oil Sanctions During Negotiation Period: Tasnim

Tasnim news agency says Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14 points through Pakistan. State sources say the focus by Iranian leadership is to end the war and build trust. This as Pakistan’s interior minister has extended his Tehran visit for a third day.

In this context a source close to the negotiating team reportedly told Tasnim that, unlike their previous texts, Washington agreed in the new text to lift Iran’s oil sanctions during the negotiation period. This is a first big sign of progress since the White House reportedly sent five ‘counter’ conditions to Tehran, which only offered a partial sanctions reduction.

Per more from Tasnim: 

  • Waiving sanctions means temporarily lifting sanctions.

  • Iran insists that lifting all sanctions on Iran should be part of the US’s commitments.

  • However, the US has proposed suspending OFAC until a final understanding is reached.

The headline was enough to push oil down, erasing the gains over the weekend…

Another blurb via TASS, offering a little more in terms of likely conflicting interpretations and expectations:

According to the source, unlike in its previous proposals, the US has agreed in its new offer to suspend oil sanctions against Iran for the duration of the talks. The source noted that Tehran, for its part, insists on the lifting of all sanctions, while Washington is only ready to waive US Treasury sanctions until a final agreement is reached.

More Latest Developments

According to more of the latest headlines via Al Jazeera:

  • Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says talks between Iran and the US are continuing through Pakistan.
  • He added that Iranian and Omani technical teams met in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for ensuring safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Kuwait and Qatar have condemned drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, which officials say originated from Iraqi airspace.
  • The Israeli army says it struck more than 30 targets in southern Lebanon, which it claims were used by Hezbollah to attack Israeli forces.
  • The Israeli navy has seized vessels that were part of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, arresting 100 activists on board.

And more developments via Newsquawk:

  • US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
  • US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
  • Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that “we don’t have much time”, adding that both countries “keep changing their goalposts”.
  • Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
  • Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
  • Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
  • Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
  • Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas’s armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
  • UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
  • Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.

* * *

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out “what’s next” – while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports. Currently the sides are merely trying to get back to the table.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 12:30

Iran Counter-Blockade Bites As No Tankers Load At Kharg For 10th Day

Iran Counter-Blockade Bites As No Tankers Load At Kharg For 10th Day

Earlier today, in response to news that the number of tankers anchored at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal had hit a post-blockade peak, we wondered if this means that Iran is running out of tankers to store oil, i.e., Trump’ blockade of the blockade is working. In any case, it certainly means that Iran is no longer able to sell any of the oil, depriving it of much needed oil export revenues which it has found itself forced to shut in as there is no open downstream path for the product.

A few hours later, Bloomberg echoed question, writing that Iran’s main oil export facility in the Persian Gulf stayed devoid of tankers for at least a 10th day, underscoring the growing strain on Tehran from a US naval blockade.

Using Sentinel satellite data of Kharg Islan, Bloomberg found that since May 8, no loadings of large ocean-going tankers are visible at the facility’s crude-export berths. 

Oil tankers anchored near Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal on May 16, 2026. Red circles are very large crude carriers

The counter blockade is depriving Tehran of critical petroleum revenue and the market of millions of barrels of supply. Prior to the US blockade, Iran was by far the largest – if not only – country exporting its crude because the Islamic Republic had blocked other countries’ ships from using the strait.

With no loaded tankers departing Kharg even as oil keeps arriving at the country’s largest oil terminal, it remains unclear how much of a factor lack of spare capacity has become as Trump hopes to cripple Iran’s oil production with lenghty shut-ins. Bloomberg’ Julian Lee writes that it’s hard to say the speed at which Kharg’ remaining capacity might fill given that Iran has curbed its output in response to the American blockade.

One possibility is that it’s cheaper for Tehran to use on-land facilities rather than filling ships, something that might help to explain the absence of loadings and a simultaneous buildup of tankers in nearby anchorage areas.

Here, Bloomberg’s other energy analyst Javier Blas chimes in, and notes that Iran is still loading crude into tankers (although not in Kharg Island). Instead, it’s loading a tanker at Jask, an alternative terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. But since it is inside the US Navy blockade line, those tankers are likely only being used for storage purposes. 

An image on Monday from the European Union’s Sentinel 1 satellite, examined by Bloomberg, shows a ship moored at Jask’s loading buoy. A separate image from the Sentinel 2 orbiter from Sunday shows an Aframax-sized vessel heading toward the mooring.

Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg identify the tanker as the Vernon, a ship that has been sanctioned by the US for its involvement in Iran’s oil trade. It remains to be seen if the ship will attempt to get through the American cordon.

There were no telephone or email contact details for the Panama-based company listed as the ship’s beneficial owner and manager on the Equasis maritime database, while emails to the ISM manager, based in Hong Kong, were returned as undeliverable

While Tehran appears to have shifted its primary loading terminal from Kharg to Jask, loading at Jask remains uncommon. The port has seen only nine carriers filled since the terminal was officially opened in 2021. Of those, five have taken place since the war began at the end of February.

Up to Friday, the US Navy had redirected 75 Iran-linked commercial vessels and disabled a further four since it imposed its blockade on April 13, US Central Command said in posts on X last week.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/18/2026 – 12:20