Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

In the waning weeks of their financial relationship with the federal government, the powers that be at PBS and NPR all appeared to agree on the same, rather bizarre strategy. Rather than argue that their programming is necessary because of its unique educational and instructional nature or that it fills niches in cultural and artistic instruction that are necessary but not profitable enough to be addressed by private broadcasters, they all decided instead to insist that they are the only thing keeping poor, rural Americans in touch with the outside world and also keeping the poors from being killed, at any moment, by various natural disasters.

NPR CEO Katherine Maher, for example, insisted that she and her network are the only source of news and emergency information for “large rural communities, large tribal communities.” This followed PBS documentary filmmaker Ken Burns’ contention that defunding the public networks would “affect mostly rural communities,” because, you know, rural communities are backward and ignorant and don’t really have any other way to learn about the big, wide world:

My biggest thing is, I travel around the system all the time… And you begin to see the way in which, particularly in those small rural markets, the PBS station is really like the public library. It’s one of those important institutions. It may be the only place where people have access to local news, that the local station is going to the city council meeting.

They’re going to the school board meeting. They’re going to the zoning board. There’s a kind of sense of local accountability. And as news becomes nationalized and even internationalized, there’s a loss there. It’s not just—they’re not just losing the prime-time schedule. They’re also losing contact with emergency alert systems and Homeland Security and continuing education and classroom on the air, along with our—with children’s programming and prime time.

Part of this, of course, is strategic. The public broadcasters know that most people view them as pretentious, highbrow snobs, coastal elites who care only about their own, very narrow fixations, yet expect all American taxpayers to fund them. They know that they have a perception problem, which is to say that they know most Americans perceive them as useless, condescending, and tax-sponging. To (belatedly and half-heartedly) counter that perception, the public broadcasters want desperately to convince the public to think of them as “everyman,” as the literal lifeline to America’s heartland, the saviors and defenders of the common folk. It’s a desperate and ridiculous strategy, to be sure, but it is a strategy, nonetheless.

The bigger part of all this, however, is that people like Katherine Maher, Ken Burns, and the rest of public broadcasting’s defenders actually believe what they say. They honestly think that Americans who live in the vast expanses of flyover country between New York and San Francisco are backward, ignorant, and totally unaware of the world around them, especially anything that might be considered “sophisticated” or “enlightened.” They truly and deeply believe that they are the only light that occasionally breaks the deep, profound, and otherwise endless darkness that is “rural” America. Of course, they need PBS and NPR. Without PBS and NPR, well…those people would get all their information from the spinster schoolmarm at the one-room schoolhouse or—Gaia forbid!—from a snake-handling revivalist preacher! And heaven only knows how many dimwitted Dorothys and Totos would be swept off the plains of Kansas every year without public broadcasters to warn them to stay away from funnel clouds, no matter how enticing they may appear!

In some ways, this bizarre PR campaign on behalf of PBS and NPR mirrors the bizarre political campaigns run by the Democratic Party of late. Knowing that they were struggling to reach men—rural men, in particular—the powers that be in the Democratic Party decided last year that they needed to connect with this demographic to close their own profound “gender gap.” The problem was that they didn’t know anything about men and rural men, in particular, meaning that they didn’t have any idea how to reach them. And so, they decided to run Tim Walz (of all people) for Vice President—because he’s one of them, right? I know this sounds like something a right-wing columnist would make up just to make Democrats look ridiculously out-of-touch with people whose votes they were desperate to win, but according to a new book about the 2024 campaign, Kamala Harris chose Walz over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly in part because, at interviews, the latter two drank water, while Walz drank Diet Mt. Dew. And the backward, toothless types that wouldn’t know how to count to twelve without the Sesame Street “Pinball” video were certain to find that appealing, right? He grew up in Nebraska and drinks Mt. Dew? Sign us up! (Or at least let us put our “X” on the line where the signature is supposed to go!)

In other, even deeper and more serious ways, the PR campaign waged on behalf of the public broadcasters mirrors the long-term trend among the nation’s political, educational, and media elites to view those who are unlike them as “lesser than,” as simpletons and “deplorables” who are too stupid to know what they really want and really need and, therefore, have to be told those things by their cultural and intellectual betters. Just as PBS and NPR waged a campaign to save their public funding by appealing to the “hidden” interests of rural people who despise them and who consistently vote for elected officials who want to defund them, so the nation’s ruling class has long bemoaned that rural (as well as suburban and ex-urban) voters are staunchly Republican, even though these voters’ real interests should make them Democrats.

More than two decades ago, the journalist Thomas Frank appealed to his fellow leftists’ sense of self-importance by asking (in a book by the same title), “What’s the Matter with Kansas?” Kansans and other rural voters, you see, are too stupid to understand that they shouldn’t be voting for pro-life Republicans who might also cut farm subsidies. Obviously, they should, instead, vote for pro-welfare Democrats, who will take care of them like the Prairie Populists of yesteryear.

Likewise, the mainstream media have created an entirely new genre of stories this past month about stupid Trumpers who voted for budget cuts but now might lose their access to rural hospitals because of Medicaid cuts. “Dumb Trumpers have regrets” is almost inarguably the “story of the summer” for the mainstream media.

All of this reinforces the fact that PBS, NPR, the mainstream media, most of the Democratic Party, and parts of the Republican establishment see themselves as different from and better than their fellow countrymen. They grumble constantly about the “populist” turn in American politics, without it ever crossing their minds that they might be responsible for this turn. Their arrogance toward and alienation from the country class are primary drivers of this populism.

PBS and NPR, like so many of the public institutions in this country today, are run of, by, and for the ruling class. This is troubling enough and more than justifies their loss of taxpayer dollars. That they would try to stave off that loss by pretending to care even a little about the country class and its needs only amplifies the disquiet and reinforces the righteousness of the defunding decision.

Via JonFleetwood.com,

A new BMJ Global Health study has confirmed that the World Health Organization’s (WHO) private fundraising arm—the WHO Foundation—has received tens of millions of dollars from pharmaceutical giants, Big Tech companies, and anonymous sources, with nearly half the funding now untraceable.

The study findings come after U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced the United States will reject the WHO’s sweeping emergency powers treaty, warning that the same unelected body now seeking “global medical surveillance of every human being.”

The BMJ Global Health study, published Wednesday, reads:

“From its launch until the end of 2023, the foundation disclosed total donation receipts of US$82 783 930 overall, of which US$39 757 326 (48.0%) was from anonymous donations over US$100 000. In total, US$51 554 203 (62.3%) in anonymous donations were reported.”

The top-named donor was the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, long considered one of WHO’s most influential funders:

“Donations varied by sector, with the largest named donations coming from the private philanthropic sector, including the Gates foundation and other family foundations, followed by social media companies, medical device companies and the banking/finance and pharmaceutical sectors.”

Secretary Kennedy recently cut off U.S. funding to Bill Gates’ vaccine syndicate Gavi, citing peer-reviewed evidence that the DTP shot it promotes “may kill more children from other causes than it saves,” and condemning the alliance for treating vaccine safety as a PR problem instead of a public health priority.

Moreover, a Gates Foundation–funded trial injected South African children with live tuberculosis-causing bacteria, infecting 260 kids and causing serious harm—all while excluding early post-vaccine infections from analysis and following a prior Gates-funded gain-of-function experiment that engineered TB to grow unchecked.

The WHO Foundation (WHOF), launched in 2020 to accept donations from entities the WHO cannot receive money from directly, now also counts Meta (Facebook), TikTok, Maybelline, Sanofi, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novo Nordisk among its known funders:

“This included the announcement of a US$50 million commitment from the WHOF via contributions from Sanofi, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novo Nordisk, TikTok, Maybelline and a range of other partners.”

A majority of funds aren’t even going to WHO programs—they’re going to the WHO Foundation’s own operational costs:

“The largest overall category, by amount donated, was ‘WHO Foundation Operational Support’, which received just under US$40 million over the entire reporting period, representing a majority (approximately 56%) of all funding received by the Foundation to date.”

Even more concerning is the Foundation’s sharp drop in transparency, with its public reporting now rated as poor as controversial “dark money” think tanks.

“In the first year of its operation… the WHOF would be rated ‘B’ for transparency… However, in the next two reporting periods, the WHOF would be assessed a ‘D’ for transparency…”

“Nearly 80% of funds donated in January–December 2023 were from anonymous sources and in amounts of over US$100 000.”

“Results show low and declining levels of transparency over time, potentially raising concerns about the level of outside influence and role of commercial interests in setting WHO priorities.”

Though the Foundation claims to avoid tobacco and firearms money, the same is not true for fossil fuel, alcohol, sugar, or vaping interests:

“The current version of the WHOF gift policy sets out specific donor exclusions, yet only for tobacco and firearms manufacturers, while fossil fuel companies, alcohol producers, sugar sweetened beverage manufacturers and vaping companies, for example, are not mentioned in any form.”

The Foundation even publicly advertises insider access to WHO:

“Through its unparalleled access to WHO, the Foundation advances health equity by connecting and collaborating with visionary corporate partners to co-create solutions that have the highest impact.”

The authors of the BMJ Global Health study—affiliated with the U.K.’s London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and University of Edinburgh—warn:

“This analysis of WHOF donor disclosures indicates levels of donor transparency akin to oft-criticised free market think tanks, with attendant risks for both undue influence and/or reputational damage for the WHOF, and by extension the WHO.”

In the end, the WHO’s private fundraising arm isn’t just taking cash from Big Pharma and Big Tech—it’s running on a flood of untraceable money, shielding its true backers behind a wall of anonymity while claiming “unparalleled access” to global health power.

How can the WHO claim neutrality when it’s bankrolled by pharmaceutical giants, Big Tech firms under scrutiny for censorship, and tens of millions in dark money from anonymous sources?

90 minutes after a solid 2Y auction stopped through in the first sale of this week’s abbreviated bond auction schedule, moments ago the Treasury sold $70BN in 5 year paper in what was a surprisingly ugly auction.

Starting at the top, the high yield was 3.983%, up from 3.879% in June, and tailing the When Issued 3.975% by 0.8bps, the biggest tail for this maturity since last October.

The bid to cover dropped to 2.31 from 2.36, the lowest since May 2024, and below the six auction average of 2.38. 

The internals were also ugly, with Indirects slumping to 58.3% from 64.7%, and the lowest since June 2022.

And with Directs awarded 29.5%, or the highest since 2012, Dealers were left holding 12.2% just above the recent average of 11.0%.

Overall, this was a surprisingly poor auction, yet despite the very ugly reception, the broader market barely noticed, with 10Y yields trading a tad lower after the break. We expect this complacency toward lack of demand for US paper to change very soon. 

Following high-stakes talks in Scotland between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the two sides reached a landmark deal which sets a 15% US tariff on all European Union goods.

This new rate is significantly lower than the 30% import tax Trump had previously threatened, with the EU also committing to opening its markets to certain American exports with zero tariffs. Von der Leyen subsequently said, “I want to thank President Trump personally for his personal commitment and leadership to achieve this breakthrough. He is a tough negotiator, but he is also a dealmaker.”

The Kremlin has reacted, with former Russian President and current deputy chairman of the country’s security council Dmitry Medvedev in essence mocking the EU for signing a deal he says benefits only the United States, and which leaves Europe behind, looking like a “humiliated” junior partner. He also deemed the deal ‘anti-Russian’.

He highlighted that Brussels agreed to terms that involve significant trade concessions, expanded defense obligations, and energy agreements heavily favoring American exporters. Did anyone think it would be anything different with Trump in the room negotiating it?

Trump managed to “crush” Europe without firing a single shot, Medvedev said: “This isn’t diplomacy. It’s surrender dressed in a suit.”

The heavily slanted terms of the deal meant Trump had “wiped the floor with Europe,” Medvedev stated further in the Monday social media post.

“One can only feel sorry for ordinary Europeans,” Medvedev wrote, nothing that EU leaders are only motivated by their blinding anti-Russian sentiment, given Brussels’ intention to terminate all purchases of Russian oil and gas – which is part of the deal.

Below is the list offered by Medvedev on what the ‘deal’ with the European Union actually represents:

1) totally humiliating for the Europeans as it only serves the United States by leaving the European market unprotected and zeroing out tariffs on US goods;

2) creates huge additional costs for industries and agriculture in many EU countries stemming from the need to pay for expensive US energy; and…

3) diverts a massive investment flow from Europe to the US, Medvedev specified.

But ultimately, Medvedev wrote, “the deal is clearly aimed against Russia, as it bans Russian oil and gas purchases. However, while for Trump, it is largely about business, for the mad old wench Europe, it is part of its neo-Nazi ideas, which is harmful to the well-being of its own citizens.” This has been a constant talking point from Moscow going back years.

Ursula, blink repeatedly if Trump just shafted you!

Make ‘back door’ gesture if know US gas far dearer than Russian! https://t.co/ZTAlQ4ujmq pic.twitter.com/pRQuIEQNrB

— RT (@RT_com) July 28, 2025

The Russian Security Council deputy chairman has long been probably the single most outspoken official in the Kremlin, but it’s widely believed he plays ‘bad cop’ to Putin’s ‘good cop’ – in the sense that he often issues the more hawkish or even mocking point of view on any given geopolitical or economic issue. Or rather, he states the quiet part out loud, from Moscow’s viewpoint.

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

The European Union and the United States have reached a framework agreement on trade. President Trump took an hour out of his golf trip yesterday, to discuss “the biggest deal” with  European Commission President Von der Leyen. 

🚨BREAKING: President Trump lands EU trade deal:

– EU to purchase $750 billion in US and invest $600 billion in US
– EU to purchase a “vast amount” of military equipment
– EU opens up markets to US goods
– 15% reciprocal tariffs

Massive!! pic.twitter.com/cheSWDIMSJ

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) July 27, 2025

The European deal is in many ways similar to the one Japan struck last week. Most European goods will be subject to a 15% tariff. But, as we’ve seen before with these framework agreements, both sides do not seem to interpret that in exactly the same way. And there aren’t many details to go by, except for what the two leaders said. So what exactly is the big deal?

Both Trump and Von der Leyen agree that the trade agreement includes automobiles. That’s good news for the industry, which had been subject to a 25% sectoral tariff, and now essentially sees this being lowered as part of the deal. In return, “European countries will open their markets at zero tariffs,” said Trump.

Furthermore, airplanes and parts will be exempt from tariffs. And Von der Leyen said that pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are included in the 15% rate, which would shield them from even higher sectoral tariffs –up to 200%– President Trump has been threatening.  

Yet, before the meeting with the EC President, Trump had told reporters that pharmaceuticals would not be part of any deal. Other US officials seemed to corroborate Von der Leyen’s narrative, but no final deal has been signed. So, there is perhaps still a small risk that Trump’s Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceuticals could weigh on the European, and particularly the Irish, economy – if any dispute about these sectoral tariffs does not sabotage the broader agreement.

Just like Japan, Brussels has effectively bought its way out of an even higher rate. The European Union will purchase $750 billion worth of US energy over the remainder of Trump’s term, which the continent needs anyway. The big question is whether that can even be achieved. In 2024, all energy flows from the US to the EU totalled only around $65bn. Even if Europe were to source all of its diesel and LNG from the US, this is a massive stretch – and would go against Europe’s agenda of diversifying suppliers for key resources. 

The EU will also buy “vast amounts” of military equipment. Again, that is something Europe needs more of – although France and several other countries would rather see these weapons systems produced domestically.

But on top of that, the EU has also pledged to invest an additional $600 billion in the US. That’s a win for Trump whichever way you look at it. If European companies will invest more in US factories, that would still move some production out of the EU – just like tariffs might have. And if it’s the European or national governments, then these investments will have to compete with domestic investments as Brussels strives to regain strategic autonomy – at a time when governments’ budgets are already stretched thin.

Although the details are still sparse, the agreement between Trump and Von der Leyen does significantly lower the downside risk to the European economy. At the very least, the European Union will now not be hit by a 30% levy when the US reinstates its “reciprocal” tariffs. So, the deal should at least remove some of the uncertainty that plagued investors’ and corporates’ decision making. 

Expect today’s trading to be a risk-on day, with equities futures in the green and corporate spreads tightening a tad at the open. 

Yet, on a sectoral level there may still be some concerns about the agreed 15% rate, and particularly the asymmetry with the US. Von der Leyen acknowledged that the tariff would be “a challenge for some industries.” Indeed, the deal may erode some of their competitiveness versus US peers. However, other US trading partners have generally not managed to negotiate better terms than the EU deal. So, compared to other exporting nations, the impact on European competitiveness should be more limited. 

The deal with Brussels leaves US-China relations as the biggest unknown for global trade. On Friday, Trump said “we have the confines of a deal with China,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent is due to meet the Chinese Vice Premier today. 

Both parties will probably agree to extend the current tariffs – 30% on Chinese exports and 10% on US goods, on top of existing tariffs – at least until a potential meeting with President Trump and President Xi later in the year. According to Bessent, “now we can move on to discussing other matters in terms of bringing the economic relationship into balance.” This implies that the meeting will focus on the US’ other economic concerns, such as China’s industrial overcapacity, and limited domestic consumption.

Passengers aboard a Delta Airlines flight had quite a jaw-dropping conclusion to their journey on Saturday night, as federal agents boarded their plane upon landing, handcuffed the co-pilot and marched him off the jet — with Fox News reporting that he faces charges of possessing child sexual abuse material. In a terrific comic twist, one passenger on the San Francisco-bound jet was sent into a “rage” as she assumed she’d witnessed an ICE apprehension.   

Just after Delta Flight 2809 from Minneapolis reached its SFO gate at 9:35 pm, the captain turned off the seat belt sign and passengers began to gather their belongings. That’s when the drama unfolded. 

“A group of people with badges, guns, and different agency vests/markings were pushing their way up through the aisle to the cockpit,” passenger Sarah Christianson told the San Francisco Chronicle, noting that she’d counted at least 10 law enforcement officers who “stormed the cockpit, cuffed the co-pilot, arrested him, walked him down the aisle, and ushered him off the plane through the cabin doors located between first and coach…[it was] shocking and unnerving.” 

After the arrest was made, another group of law enforcement officers came aboard to sweep up the co-pilot’s possessions. Citing a senior federal source, Fox News reported that the co-pilot was arrested on charges relating to “child sexual abuse material,” with Homeland Security Investigations agents making the collar. His name has yet to be released, and Delta has not made a statement.

Delta Airlines pilot ARRESTED as plane lands in San Francisco

10 officers RAID cockpit ‘without warning’

Passengers stunned as pilot hauled off the jet pic.twitter.com/Dqg0Hjo60j

— RT (@RT_com) July 27, 2025

Hilariously, passenger Sarah Christensen assumed she witnessed the apprehension of an illegal immigrant who’d been at the controls in the cockpit. Of course, with the plane landing in hard-left San Francisco, she was naturally angry about it. “It was rage-inducing to see someone being disappeared right in front of me,” she told the Chronicle. 

The pilot told inquiring parties on the plane that he had “no idea what happened” to his co-pilot. “Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t given a heads-up that this was happening, because that would have also tipped his colleague in the cockpit with him,” observed Gary Leff at View from the Wing. 

The bizarre scene at SFO capped off a bad week for Delta pilots — and the carrier’s reputation. On Tuesday morning, a Delta flight from Stockholm to New York’s JFK Airport was cancelled after its female US pilot failed a breathalyzer test. Delta now owes each passenger $705 — upwards of $139,500 for the 198-seat jet, reports View From The Wing. That’s before the cost of lodging and meals.  Believe it or not, last fall, two flight attendants on the very same route were arrested after they failed breathalyzer tests.   

“I’m disappointed in President Putin,” President Donald Trump said in Scotland alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, just prior to a bilateral meeting with the European leader. He weighed in on stalled Ukraine peace, after last week’s third round of talks between the two warring countries hosted in Istanbul failed to produce tangible results, other than cementing the next round of POW swaps.

Markets and especially oil, are particularly reacting to Trump’s vow that he’ll now reduce a timetable he previously gave Putin to reach a peace deal or face massive “secondary tariffs” on Russia’s trade partners:

“I’m going to reduce that 50 days I gave him to a lesser number,” Trump said.

Recall that Trump had warned earlier this month that buyers of Russian exports would face tariffs “at about 100%” if there’s no ceasefire deal by the imposed deadline.

Oil immediately pushes upward, and keeps climbing, on the new Trump timeline issued to Putin…

However, he did not disclose a specific number of days after issuing the statement. 

The initial 50-days deadline threat was declared on July 14, which would have made the deadline September 2, 2025. So Trump’s new number, though undisclosed, is a deadline now likely falling within August.

There’s really been nothing “new” in the Ukraine war, other than continuing ratcheting cross-border drone attacks by both sides. But President Putin has certainly been sending a tough message, extending the ground invasion into Sumy Oblast (more central Ukraine, beyond the Donbass) – and pummeling major cities, including Kiev, with missile and drone launches.

Trump addressed this from Scotland: “We thought we had that settled numerous times, and then President Putin goes out and starts launching rockets into some city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people in a nursing home or whatever,” he said.

“You have bodies lying all over the street,” Trump continued. “And I say that’s not the way to do it. So we’ll see what happens with that.”

Trump: I’m disappointed in President Putin. I’m going to reduce that 50 days I gave him to a lesser number because I think I already know the answer what’s going to happen pic.twitter.com/MaaFly66kg

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 28, 2025

The reality which is not being addressed is that Russia has the clear upper-hand in the conflict, and looks to win this grinding war of attrition, something probably quietly admitted among Trump officials. If Zelensky still refused to even contemplate territorial concessions – and he hasn’t even offered Crimea – then Putin has little reason to put the brakes on.

Ukraine at Istanbul pressed for a long-term truce, but not based on any compromises, while Moscow has made clear it is only interested in brief multi-day pauses. Russia fears that any substantial truce without permanent settlement would only allow Ukraine to rearm and get more men to the front lines, amid Western efforts to train and equip more of the army.

Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chip, designed to power the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, will be manufactured at Samsung’s new, massive chip fabrication plant in Texas, strategically located near Tesla’s Model Y and Cybertruck production facilities. 

“Samsung’s giant new Texas fab will be dedicated to making Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chip. The strategic importance of this is hard to overstate,” Elon Musk wrote on X late Sunday night. 

Musk continued, “Samsung currently makes AI4. TSMC will make AI5, which just finished design, initially in Taiwan and then Arizona.” 

“Samsung agreed to allow Tesla to assist in maximizing manufacturing efficiency,” he noted, adding, “This is a critical point, as I will walk the line personally to accelerate the pace of progress. And the fab is conveniently located not far from my house.”

Samsung agreed to allow Tesla to assist in maximizing manufacturing efficiency.

This is a critical point, as I will walk the line personally to accelerate the pace of progress. And the fab is conveniently located not far from my house 😃

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 28, 2025

Samsung confirmed that it will produce Tesla’s AI chips as part of a $16.5 billion chipmaking deal, marking a major win for its underperforming foundry division, according to Bloomberg. 

The AI6 chip will be produced at Samsung’s chip plant in Taylor, Texas. The new facility was partially funded through the Biden-Harris administration’s CHIPS and Science Act and is focused on manufacturing advanced logic chips for mobile devices, 5G, high-performance computing, and AI applications.

Tesla aims to produce more of its AI chips in the U.S., and the new deal with Samsung strongly reinforces this shift, prioritizing proximity to vehicle manufacturing, supply chain resilience, national security, and Musk’s direct oversight. 

This all marks a win for American innovation and manufacturing, while legacy automakers continue to rely heavily on chips and other parts sourced from overseas markets, particularly East Asia.

Authored by Charlie Kirk via RealClearWire,

On Sunday, July 20, the second Trump administration turned six months old.

President Trump’s first four years in the White House were already a big success, which is why I fought so hard to bring him back for a second go-round.

Yet I think Trump’s second has already surpassed it in just one-eighth the time.

Completely and instantly securing the U.S.-Mexico border after the four-year Biden invasion is one of the most important and impressive accomplishments in American presidential history. TV news said the president’s tough trade talk would crash the economy in days; instead the stock market hit record highs this very week and blue-collar wages are rising faster than they have in 60 years.

Under any other recent president, I am convinced the June Iran crisis would have ballooned into a full regime-change war, with far more money spent and many American lives lost. But under President Trump’s measured hand, America managed to strike a crippling blow to Iran’s nuclear program while suffering zero casualties and even bringing a ceasefire between Iran and Israel as part of the bargain.

Yet when I think about the events of the past six months, it’s not the big wins I think about the most, but actually the small ones. They’re the triumphs that don’t necessarily grab the largest headlines that show this administration really is committed to systematically throwing out the suffocating groupthink and stagnation that have ruled in D.C. for decades.

Over and over, this administration is doing things that past Republicans could and should have done, yet inexplicably never did. For instance, all the way back in 1981, the outgoing Carter administration engineered a court ruling that abolished the federal government’s hugely successful hiring aptitude test on the grounds that it was (you already knew this was coming) racist. Presidents Reagan, Bush 41, or Bush 43 could have fought to undo that and restore merit-based hiring. Yet they never did, and over 45 years our government went rotten as DEI replaced merit. Now, this administration is finally acting to bring back merit in government. Imagine that!

From Harvard to Hennepin County, this administration has begun toppling the race and sex-based discrimination that had taken root all over America in flagrant defiance of both our Constitution and historic American values. It is purging DEI commissars from federal agencies, imposing uniform standards on the military, and sending out warnings to the private sector as well. This isn’t superficial—it’s the destruction in detail of a rotten, anti-American ideology.

It would have been easy for Donald Trump to make a few speeches and sign a couple symbolic orders about “protecting women’s sports”—past Republican administrations would have settled for exactly that. But this administration has genuinely done the work to protect American children from the transgender mania, one of the great evils of our time.

Across America, health care providers are ending their involvement in child mutilation and similar treatments because of the dramatic increase in regulatory hostility from this administration. Children’s National Hospital in D.C., Children’s Hospital Los Angeles, Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, Stanford Medicine, and more have all stopped providing surgeries or puberty blockers to minors in the face of this administration. Where it matters most, the Trump administration has stepped up to save children from predators calling themselves “doctors.”

For my entire life, Republicans loved to make a show of complaining about America sending billions in aid to foreign countries. But they never stopped it—until Trump, who actually delivered by cutting USAID down to size and keeping more of America’s money in America. The same goes for defunding NPR, PBS, and Planned Parenthood: long years of talk, until the Trump administration fought to make it actually happen.

It was obvious for almost 20 years that the TSA’s policy requiring passengers to remove their shoes before boarding a flight was a pointless bit of security theater, yet Presidents Bush, Obama, and Biden all kept the policy around anyway. This administration finally got rid of it.

While the Biden administration treated the cryptocurrency industry as a borderline criminal enterprise, Trump signed the GENIUS Act, which positions America to be at the lead of this innovative industry.

The administration hasn’t just said the right things. It has done the right things, in detail, to make sure its promises are delivered at the micro level. The administration even made showerheads great again. And it’s that commitment to the small things and common sense that will pay dividends over the next three and a half years. Because an administration that cares about the details of governing will make all of America great, too.

Another day, another all time high.

US equity futures and global markets are at a fresh all time high (but the gains are fading) on a trade-induced, global risk-on rally, sparked by Sunday’s US/EU deal for 15% tariffs on European exports to the US, while we also learned that US/China will extend the trade truce by 90-days as they resume negotiations today. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are  up 0.2%, well off session highs, while Nasdaq futures gain 0.3%. Pre-market, all Mag7 names are higher with semis outperforming. Cyclicals are poised to outperform, led by Fins/Industrials. Bond yields are up 1bp, reversing an earlier drop, as the USD appreciates on the back of a slide in the euro and yen. Commodities are mixed with crude higher, natgas lower, precious metals flat, base metals down, and Ags mixed. Today’s macro data is light with on Dallas Fed Mfg Activity but it’s a crazy busy week with the Fed decision on deck, 38% of all companies reporting, the jobs report on Friday and much more (full preview coming). 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are all higher (Tesla +1.6%, Nvidia +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Meta +0.4%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft +0.3%, Apple +0.2%). 

• US energy stocks moved higher after Trump said the EU agreed to buy $750 billion in American energy products and invest $600 billion in the US on top of existing expenditures. LNG stocks including Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Venture Global (VG) rise after the EU committed to big purchases of American energy products as part of the trade deal. Cheniere +5%, Venture Global +6%.
• ASML’s US-listed shares (ASML) gain 3% after a key customer, Samsung, won a contract to make AI chips for Tesla.
• ATAI Life Sciences (ATAI) sinks 11%. The company is a majority shareholder of Recognify Life Sciences, whose Phase 2b trial missed a primary endpoint.
• Revvity (RVTY) falls 7% after the life sciences firm trimmed its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year.
• Sarepta (SRPT) is down 2% as the FDA probes the death of an 8-year-old boy in Brazil who received the drugmaker’s Elevidys. Brazilian authorities have said that the death was unlikely to be due to the drug.

In the biggest news over the weekend, Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the EU deal on Sunday at his golf club in Turnberry, Scotland, although they didn’t disclose the full details of the pact or release any written materials. And even as fears of a damaging trade war ease, optimism is tempered by the risks posed from the US jobs report, Fed and BOJ meetings and earnings from megacap companies this week. Early gains in European automakers faded and the euro slid to its lowest in a week against the dollar as investors digested more negative aspects of the accord.

US energy stocks moved higher after Trump said the EU agreed to buy $750 billion in American energy products and invest $600 billion in the US on top of existing expenditures.

“This deal removes any uncertainty which has been reflected in the positive market movements this morning,” Michael Browne, global investment strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute, wrote in a note. “We will now have to see what the tariffs mean for businesses and how they will be absorbed, but it will vary by sectors.” 

Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to meet in Stockholm on Monday amid a report their two countries are expected to extend their tariff truce by another three months. “Markets like certainty and we should expect a deal very soon,” according to Franklin Templeton Institute’s Browne.

Meanwhile, Mag 7 members Apple, Amazon.com, Microsoft and Meta are all due to report numbers. Robust corporate earnings have bolstered investor confidence in US stocks, as companies head for their highest share of beats since the second quarter of 2021.

Progress in trade deals, positive economic data and corporate resilience have offset worries that stocks are overheating. More than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Later in the week, the Bank of Japan is set to keep interest rates unchanged with traders on alert for any signs of future guidance by the central bank.

In geopolitical news, leaders of Thailand and Cambodia are set for talks Monday to halt the deadliest clashes between the neighbors in more than a decade.

European stocks and US futures both advance after the European Union secured a trade deal with President Donald Trump over the weekend, further easing fears of a damaging trade war ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. The Stoxx 600 climbs 0.6% with technology, real estate and health care names leading gains. Automotive stocks jumped in early trading but later slipped as investors focused on more negative aspects of the deal. European chipmakers rise after Samsung won a contract to build AI chips for Tesla. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• ASML and other European semiconductor equipment stocks gain after their key customer, Samsung, wins a contract to make AI chips for Tesla, while a US-EU trade agreement that exempts tariffs on semiconductor equipment gives a further boost
• Forvia shares rise as much as 12%, to their highest intraday level in over a year. The firm delivered operating profit ahead of analyst expectations in the first half and confirmed its guidance for the full year
• Ceres Power Holdings soars as much as 34%, the most since 2024, after Doosan became the first of its strategic licensing partners to start mass-market production of fuel cell stacks using the company’s solid oxide technology
• ProSieben shares surge 11% to €7.79 apiece after MFE decided to raise its takeover bid for the German broadcaster, with the Italian firm now offering €4.48 in cash and 1.3 of its Class A shares for one share in ProSieben
• Landis+Gyr gains as much as 5.2%, reaching its highest since late October, following an upgrade to buy at Berenberg, which sees a potential divestment of the Swiss energy management firm’s EMEA business as a key catalyst
• European pharma stocks advance after senior American officials told reporters the US has agreed to set a 15% tariff on pharmaceutical imports from the EU as part of the broader trade deal struck at the weekend
• European car shares erase earlier EU-US trade-deal inspired gains as analysts point out more negative aspects of the accord and after Audi cut its outlook. Audi says the tariffs and restructuring costs are weighing on earnings
• Shares in European defense companies fall, missing out on a broader rally inspired by a EU-US trade deal, under which Europe is set to buy military equipment from the US
• Heineken shares drop as much as 2% after volumes fell more than anticipated due to retailer disputes across Europe, although analysts at Citi said these have been resolved as they pointed to better exit rates in June
• Loomis shares fall as much as 7.1% after SEB cut its rating on the Swedish cash handling and security firm to hold from buy, saying stock now offers more neutral risk/reward due to lower volumes in France and Sweden
• Computacenter shares drop as much as 6.4%, with analysts saying the IT company’s first-half adjusted operating profit is disappointing as consensus had forecast a larger rise in earnings
• SP Group falls as much as 6.1% after DNB Carnegie cut its price target on the Danish plastics industry group, saying that the firm is unlikely to recover its lost first-half sales volumes in the rest of the year
• PGE shares drop as much as 3.6% after Poland’s biggest power utility reported 11.b zloty write-offs in the first half of the year, mostly in its conventional electricity generation segment

Earlier in the session,  Asian equities declined as investors assessed a US trade deal with the European Union and considered the potential for negotiations with other nations, including China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3%, with Advantest weighing on the gauge after a UBS downgrade. Japanese and Indian shares were among the biggest decliners in the region. Samsung rose after it signed a $16.5 billion pact to make chips for Tesla. Shares in Hong Kong, China, Indonesia and Taiwan advanced.  The MSCI Asian benchmark climbed last week to the highest since March 2021, as US deals with Japan and other nations buoyed optimism ahead of President Donal Trump’s Aug. 1 tariff deadline.

“The rally since ‘Liberation Day’ is due to a change in sentiment and expectations, rather than a change in fundamentals,” Chi Lo, senior market strategist, APAC at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “If we get a shock, such as China-US trade talks not going as expected, that could be a trigger for a pullback,” he added.

In FX, the dollar strengthens for a third straight session with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.4%. The antipodean currencies are leading losses against the greenback among the G-10 currencies, falling around 0.7% each. The euro is not far behind with a 0.6% drop having erased an earlier gain. The pound has been the most resilient, albeit still losing 0.2%. 

In rates, treasuries are little changed in early US trading, off day’s best levels reached during London morning following weekend announcement of a US-EU trade accord. Yields are back within 1bp of Friday’s closing levels after declining by 2bp-3bp; dominant themes last week included progress toward trade agreements averting steeper US tariffs on imports, and US administration pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to step down before his term ends next year. 10Y Treasurys are trading at 4.40%, up 1bp from Friday’s close, erasing an earlier drop. An accelerated and compressed coupon auction cycle begins with $69b 2-year note sale at 11:30am and $70b 5-year at 1pm; it concludes Tuesday with $44 billion 7-year, the last coupon auction of the May-July financing quarter. Quarterly refunding announcement for August-to-October is ahead Wednesday. 

In commodities, spot gold is steady near $3,338/oz. WTI rises 0.6% to near $65.60 a barrel. Bitcoin is hovering just below $119,000.

Looking at today’s US economic data calendar, we only have July’s Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am); key employment indicators are ahead this week including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment change and employment report. Fed officials are in external communications blackout ahead of their July 30 rate decision; swap contracts linked to future Fed rate decisions continue to fully price in one quarter-point rate cut this year in October, and most of a second one by year-end.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
• DAX +0.2%, CAC 40 +0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.37%
• VIX +0.3 points at 15.2
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1202.83
• euro -0.5% at $1.168
• WTI crude +0.8% at $65.71/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Futures climbed (SPX futs +15 bps, NDX futs +30bps) after the US and the EU reached a trade agreement that set a lower-than-threatened 15% tariff on most goods, including cars, from Aug. 1. Germany and France weren’t willing to risk a trade war with the US, pushing the EU to conclude the deal. BBG
• The US has frozen restrictions on technology exports to China to avoid hurting trade talks with Beijing and help Trump secure a meeting with Xi Jinping this year. The commerce department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, which runs export controls, has been told in recent months to avoid tough moves on China, according to current and former US officials. FT
• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday his administration was close to reaching a trade deal with China, but gave no other details. “We’re very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we’ll see how that goes,” Trump said. RTRS
• China will begin providing subsidies of ~$500 per child under the age of 3 to parents across the nation as it looks to boost birthrates. BBG
• Months of intense negotiations appear unlikely to produce a trade deal between the US and India before the August 1 deadline, despite Trump having teased one for months as “coming soon”, according to three people familiar with the situation. SCMP
• Israel rolled back curbs on food distribution to Gaza in an effort to defuse an international outcry. Meanwhile, Houthi militants vowed to target ships dealing with Israeli ports. BBG
• Tesla tapped Samsung to produce its next-gen chips in a $16.5 billion deal running through 2033. Elon Musk later said on X that “$16.5B is just the bare minimum.” Samsung shares jumped to their highest since September, while Tesla rose in premarket trading. BBG
• Investors pulled $3.9 billion from Treasuries in June and added $10 billion to US and European IG company debt amid rising US fiscal deficits, EPFR data show. BBG
• NASA spokesperson said about 20% of the workforce is set to depart the agency as part of an overall effort to become streamlined and more efficient amid concerns about mission safety.
• Boeing is bracing for a strike at its defense hub after workers rejected a contract offer that included a 20% wage increase over four years. IAM District 837 members in St. Louis voted to reject the Boeing (BA) defence contract, while the Co. said it was disappointed that employees voted down the richest contract offer it’s ever presented to IAM 837 and stated that no talks are scheduled with the union.
• US Lawmakers said to be quickly souring on the OBBB’s tax hike on gamblers, according to Punchbowl

Trade/Tariffs: US-EU Deal

• US President Trump announced a deal with the EU involving a 15% tariff and stated the EU will buy USD 750bln in US energy and is opening up all countries, while he added the EU will purchase US military equipment and will make USD 600bln in US investments. Trump added that the deal is the biggest ever made and will be great for cars, as well as noted that agriculture is also to have a big impact. Furthermore, Trump said they are looking at deals with three to four other countries and countries will probably receive a letter of clarification or confirmation this week.
• European Commission President von der Leyen confirmed there will be 15% tariffs across the board and said the trade deal creates certainty and stability for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Von der Leyen said the deal reaffirms the transatlantic partnership and the 15% tariff rate is for a vast majority of EU exports including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, while she added that they agreed on zero-for-zero tariffs on certain agricultural products and on strategic products such as aircraft component parts and certain chemicals. Furthermore, she commented that tariffs will be cut and a quota system in place for steel, while there will be major purchases of US LNG and details on the trade deal framework will happen over the next few weeks.
• US senior administration official said the EU agreed to open markets to all but a few products, while President Trump suggested the EU buy USD 1tln of US energy during his term, but the EU settled at USD 750bln and agreed to 15% tariffs on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The admin official stated that EU leaders accepted that US would stick to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium and the EU wants to continue discussing steel and aluminium tariffs. The official stated that President Trump has the ability to change tariffs back if countries don’t live up to their commitments and the EU lowered tariffs on many products in the agriculture sector, but not all. Furthermore, the aircraft investigation is still in progress in which the tariff will be zero for now and it is likely that aircraft won’t face tariffs, but must wait for the probe to end, while the spirits issue is still to be decided and the US did not include it due to large EU agricultural surpluses.
• USTR Greer and Commerce Secretary Lutnick travelled to Scotland for the EU trade talks, while Lutnick stated the US will release the results of the Section 232 regarding chip imports in two weeks and separately commented that there are no more extensions to the August 1st deadline for tariffs.
• German Chancellor Merz said it is good that the EU and US reached a deal on tariffs and the deal avoids a conflict that would have hit the German economy, particularly in the autos sector, while Merz added that they protected their core interests even if he would have liked to see further facilitation of transatlantic trade.
• French European affairs minister said the trade deal between the EU Commission and the US will bring temporary stability, but it’s still an unbalanced deal, while the minister added that the deal has merits of exempting certain key French sectors such as aeronautics, spirits and medicines.
• Dutch PM Schoof said the EU-US agreement is vital for an open economy like theirs, while he added that it is important to work out the details of the framework trade deal as quickly as possible.
• French trade minister on the EU-US framework trade deal, says more talks are needed concerning digital services; spirits should be exempted.
• “EU officials expect there to be a joint statement with the US on yesterday’s deal – not-legally binding, working to have it ASAP. “, according to SCMP’s Bermingham “This is expected to be along the lines of the US-Indonesia statement from roughly a week ago.”
• EU Official says the EU has agreed to cut its car import duty to 2.50% as part of EU-US trade deal. EU official, on US/EU trade deal, says discussions ongoing regarding wines and spirits.
• Germany’s engineering federation VDMA says US and EU must not make trade agreement a new normal; trade deal will cost German auto firms billions every year.
• German Chemicals Association VCI, on EU-US trade deal, says, has taken note of “certain chemicals” but do not know which are meant by this.
• German Economy Minister says there will be a requirement for some sectoral adaptation after the EU-US deal Need for further negotiations on aluminium and steel.

Trade/Tariffs: US-China

• US President Trump is said to freeze export controls in order to secure a trade deal with China, according to FT. It was separately reported that US and China are expected to extend the trade truce by 90 days, according to SCMP.
• South Korea’s Finance Minister and Foreign Minister will meet with US counterparts this week, while South Korea is preparing a trade package and is drawing a mutually agreeable plan including a shipbuilding partnership. It was separately reported that South Korea suggested tens of billions of dollars worth of shipbuilding projects to the US in trade talks, according to Yonhap.
• UK government said PM Starmer is to meet US President Trump for wide-ranging talks in Scotland and they are expected to discuss progress on implementing the UK-US trade deal, hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East, and applying pressure on Russia’s Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
• Chinese Foreign Minister held a phone call with South Korean counterpart, says the two sides should jointly oppose “decoupling”.
• A high-level delegation of US executives will travel to China this week to meet Chinese officials, in a visit organised by the US-China Business Council, according to Reuters sources; US government was not involved in organisation of visit.
• US-China trade talks to start Monday “afternoon” local time in Sweden, according to Reuters sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) opened entirely in the green, benefiting from the EU-US trade agreement. As the morning progressed, indices waned off best levels, but still remain in the green. Nothing behind the slight pressure, but likely some profit-taking ahead of this week’s key risk events, which include US PCE, NFP and a slew of earnings. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Healthcare has been buoyed by the EU-US trade deal, where the EU secured a 15% rate for a vast majority of EU exports including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Autos were initially strengthened by the announcement, but now trade mixed as traders digest the financial implications of the tariff – Germany’s VDMA said that the “trade deal will cost German auto firms billions every year”. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined by Basic Resources.

Top European News

• ECB’s Cipollone said the economy is sending conflicting signals and needs to see how trade will affect prices.
• Germany is reportedly to avoid EU punishment for breaching budget rules, according to FT,
• Several were killed in a train crash in Germany near the town of Biberach, close to the border with France.
• S&P affirmed Luxembourg at AAA; Outlook Stable, while Fitch lowered Finland’s sovereign rating from AA+ to AA; Outlook Revised to Negative from Stable.
• ECB’s Kazimir says “I do not see any significant change that would force my hand to act in September; it would take something like clear signs of unravelling the labour market for me to act” “Sees no looming spectre of inflation undershoot and risks are not tilted to the downside”. US-EU trade deal reduces uncertainty but unclear how it impact inflation.

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite early tailwinds following the announcement of the US-EU trade deal, while gains were capped ahead of a slew of risk events this week and with Japan pressured amid political uncertainty. ASX 200 traded higher but with upside limited amid light catalysts and ongoing global trade uncertainty, while participants digested quarterly activity updates. Nikkei 225 wiped out its opening gains and dipped into negative territory amid political headwinds with Japan’s ruling LDP said to have collected enough signatures on Friday to call a general meeting that will hold PM Ishiba accountable for the party’s recent crushing election loss, while participants also brace for the BoJ policy meeting this week where analysts reportedly see the BoJ providing a less gloomy view and signalling the potential for resuming rate hikes later in the year. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed ahead of US-China trade talks in Sweden and with the trade truce expected to be extended for 90 days.

Top Asian News

• PBoC conducted CNY 400bln 1-year Medium Term Lending Facility with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 100bln net injection.
• Chinese Premier Li said at the World AI Conference that China will help establish an international AI collaboration group and that AI should be an international public good that benefits humanity, while he stated global AI development is accelerating and AI is moving from perceiving the world to changing the world.
• China’s Agriculture Ministry announced a plan to promote the consumption of agricultural products.
• Beijing issued a warning of geological disasters such as landslides for 10 of its 16 districts.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump really likes TikTok, but it has to move to US ownership.
• Many called for Japanese PM Ishiba’s resignation at Japan LDP meeting, according to Kyodo.

FX

• The USD picked up strength in early European trade after a steady APAC session. There was no headline coinciding with the move at the time but appeared to be more a case of Europe reacting to the EU-US trade agreement. The EU-US agreement removes another area of uncertainty for the market and could also be followed by some positive mood music between the US and China with both sides set to meet in Stockholm this afternoon. Reporting ahead of the meeting suggests a potential 90-day extension of the current 90-day truce. DXY has made its way back onto a 98 handle with a current session high at 98.06. Next upside target comes via the 50DMA at 98.30.
• The obvious focus for the Eurozone at the start of the week has been on the trade front following the EU-US trade agreement. The deal will see EU goods subject to a 15% tariff (including autos, semiconductors, pharma), 0% tariff on aircraft parts (for now), make USD 750bln in energy purchases from the US and USD 600bln in US investments. The deal is broadly as expected given the reporting last week and is not “as bad as feared” given the 30% tariff rate, which was looming over negotiations. However, EUR has been unable to capitalise on the removal of uncertainty and is softer vs. the USD and EUR. Part of this may be a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” trade and also the view that, whilst the worst case has been avoided, it is still a sub-optimal trade arrangement for the EU. It is also worth noting that at this stage, it is just an agreement and still subject to formal ratification by both sides.
• JPY is also suffering at the hands of the firmer USD with USD/JPY back above the 148 mark. Sentiment in Japan remains suppressed by political headwinds with Japan’s ruling LDP said to have collected enough signatures on Friday to call a general meeting that will hold PM Ishiba accountable for the party’s recent crushing election loss. Participants are also bracing for this week’s BoJ policy announcement, which is expected to see policy settings left unchanged. As it stands, markets price around 19bps of tightening by year-end. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 148.34 with the next upside target coming via the 21st July high at 148.66.
• GBP is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers with the pound benefiting from cross-related selling in EUR/GBP. Macro drivers for the UK are light aside from UK PM Starmer being set to meet US President Trump for wide-ranging talks in Scotland; expected to discuss progress on implementing the UK-US trade deal. The data slate is a light one for the UK this week. Cable is just about holding above the 1.34 mark with a session low at 1.3407. EUR/GBP is eyeing a test of 0.87 to the downside with a current session low at 0.8705.
• Antipodeans are the G10 underperformers, after initially being buoyed by the risk tone. Though as sentiment slowly waned across markets, the Aussie and Kiwi also lost their allure, to currently trade just off session lows.

Fixed Income

• USTs/Bunds began lower, in-fitting with the positive risk tone, held in the red but off lows in contained overnight trade. JGB’s on the other hand were bid alongside a deterioration in risk sentiment in Japan amid political headwinds and ahead of the BoJ announcement later in the week.
• As for the European morning, the fixed income complex caught a bid around the European cash open. No clear fresh catalyst for the upside, but potentially in tandem with a slight deterioration in the risk tone and a paring of the hawkishness seen late last week, with the EU-US deal welcome but still a growth headwind vs the revised April baseline of 10%. USTs are currently trading flat/incrementally firmer, and towards the upper end of a 110-26 to 111-03 range. No Tier 1 data releases today, so more focus on the US-China meeting in Sweden, US supply (2yr & 5yr note due) and then Treasury Financing Estimates thereafter before Wednesday’s refunding. Morgan Stanley does not expect the Treasury to increase coupon sizes at all this year, and have pushed out their call for the next coupon increase to February 2027 (prev. May 2026).
• For Bunds, they caught a bid around the European cash open and have continued to climb, currently at session highs in a 129.12-74 range. Further upside could see a potential test of its 50% fib retracement of last week’s move at 129.80, and then the round 130.00 mark. On the firmer fixed environment and associated lower yield action, Rabobank makes the point that diminished trade uncertainty is potentially causing a moderation in term premia.
• Gilts are also higher to a similar degree as Bunds, and ultimately following peers. UK paper currently trades towards the upper end of a 91.57-85 range. More focus has been on the EU, but reports recently have suggested that UK PM Starmer is to convene with US President Trump at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. Starmer is reportedly to bring up steel tariffs with Trump, but the US President said on Sunday that the trade deal with Britian is “concluded”.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are modestly higher in what has been a choppy session so far, currently higher by around USD 0.50/bbl. Earlier upside was driven by the broader risk tone, but as that deteriorated a touch (in equities), the complex also waned off best levels. Nothing energy-specific of note for the complex today, so attention now turns to developments in Sweden, where US-China are to discuss trade. For energy specifically, the OPEC+ JMMC are set to convene, but are unlikely to make any alterations to the group’s output plans. Brent Oct’25 currently trades in a USD 68.35-69.11/bbl range.
• Spot gold initially gapped lower at the open, as the yellow-metal digested the latest EU-US trade deal, which boosted sentiment. However, overnight trade saw the prices entirely pare that downside, to currently trade around the unchanged mark.
• Base metals are mixed/marginally firmer, failing to benefit from the on the early trade-related euphoria heading to a slew of risk events this week. 3M LME copper currently incrementally higher and trades in a USD 9,779.05-9,820.4/t range.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says IAEA visit is to take place within two weeks.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s military announced a pause of military activity in designated areas in Gaza where it is not operating until further notice, with the pause in fighting to be daily in three areas of Gaza.
• Two Jordanian air force planes and one Emirati plane dropped a total of 25 tonnes of aid in Gaza in the first air drop in months, according to a Jordanian official source. Furthermore, the World Food Programme said it hopes Israeli humanitarian pauses will allow for a surge in urgently needed food for Gaza and it has enough food in or on its way to the region to feed the entire Gaza population for almost three months.
• US President Trump said he doesn’t know what is going to happen regarding Gaza and Israel is going to have to make a decision, while he added we will see what happens and the US is going to do more aid.
• Hamas’s exiled chief Khalil al-Hayya said ceasefire negotiations with Israel are meaningless under a continued blockade and starvation, while he added the immediate and dignified delivery of food and medicine to our people is the only serious and genuine indication of whether continuing the negotiations is worthwhile.
• Yemen’s Houthis said they will target ships that belong to companies which deal with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality and ships will be attacked regardless of their destination if shipping companies don’t heed their call.
• Houthis say that, as part of the “4th phase” of action, they will be targeting “any ship coming from Israeli ports, regardless of nationality.”, via journalist Berman.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• Kremlin spokesperson said Russia prefers political and diplomatic means to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, although Kyiv and the West rejected that path.
• Poland scrambled aircraft to ensure airspace security after Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
• European Commission President von der Leyen said following a conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky that the EU will continue to support Ukraine on its European path.
• An Emergency Alert has been declared this morning throughout the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, after an unknown drone, believed to likely be Russian, crossed into the country from Belarus, according to OSINTdefender.

Geopolitics: Other

• Thailand’s military noted clashes continue in several areas on the border with Cambodia, while it was separately reported that Thailand’s acting PM agreed in principle to have a ceasefire but wants to see a sincere intention from Cambodia and wants bilateral dialogue as soon as possible.
• Malaysia’s Foreign Minister said that Cambodia’s PM and Thailand’s acting PM will visit Malaysia on Monday to discuss the conflict, while a Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed there will be a meeting on Monday.
• US President Trump spoke with the leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, while he stated that both are looking for an immediate ceasefire and peace, as well as stated that they are looking to get back to the trading table with the US.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with the leaders of Cambodia and Thailand and urged both sides to deescalate tensions immediately and agree to a ceasefire, while he said the US is prepared to facilitate talks.
• North Korea said it has no interest in any new policy of South Korea and will not sit down for dialogue, while it rejects conciliatory overtures by South Korea and said North Korea and South Korea have moved irreversibly past the concept of one nation.
• South Korea Presidential Office said it is to continue to take actions needed for peace after North Korea’s rejection of peace overtures, while the South Korea Unification Ministry said North Korea’s reaction is an indication of the challenge in inter-Korea ties.

US Event Calendar

• 10:30 am: Jul Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -9.5, prior -12.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This week’s key August 1st trade deadline is rapidly becoming a non-event. The last of the significant agreements was concluded yesterday, with the US and EU reaching a deal that mirrors the structure of the recent US-Japan accord. European stock futures are up around a percent in Asia as a result. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on autos, excludes pharmaceuticals, and maintains the existing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium. In a significant gesture, the EU has pledged to import $750 billion worth of energy, invest $600 billion into the US economy, and purchase “vast quantities” of military equipment. Additionally, the EU has committed to opening its markets to US goods at zero tariffs. On pharma there was some confusion as to whether the EU will be exempt from the upcoming Section 232 investigation on the sector. For now, there is mixed commentary on this from both sides.

Meanwhile, US-China negotiations are underway in Stockholm today and tomorrow. Although their bespoke August 12th deadline looms, early reports — so far only from Chinese press headlines — suggest a 90-day extension has been granted. This development, if confirmed, would further reduce the urgency surrounding this week’s trade calendar. So expect the White House stationery cupboard to take a hit this week, with a flurry of letters flying out— but in the context of most of the big trade understandings having already been agreed.

Adding a curveball to the week though, Thursday (July 31st) will see the Federal Appeals Court hear the International Trade Court’s ruling that President Trump’s use of an emergency declaration to impose tariffs was unlawful. Frankly, it’s hard to gauge the outcome or the potential impact if the policy is indeed struck down—so this is one to watch. It feels like the agreements made with other countries would likely stand even if the court ruling continues to go against Mr Trump. For others he will pivot to different methods of imposing tariffs. So perhaps no major impact now, but we will see.

Turning to central banks, the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday. The key question is whether enough uncertainty has lifted for the Fed to signal a clearer policy direction for September. Our US economists preview the meeting here and expect the Fed to hold rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, maintaining its current guidance without offering new clues about September. Notably, they anticipate two governors will dissent—something that hasn’t happened since 1993—at a time when political pressure on Chair Powell is intensifying. Also meeting this week are the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the Bank of Japan (Thursday), both expected to keep rates unchanged.

The Fed isn’t the only focus in the US this week. It’s a packed schedule for data and earnings, culminating in Friday’s payrolls report. Deutsche Bank forecasts a headline gain of just +75k (vs consensus +109k and last month’s +147k), and +100k for private payrolls (matching consensus and up from +74k last month). The difference reflects a reversal in strong state and local hiring seen in the previous month. Both DB and consensus expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2%. Importantly, our economists believe that with lower immigration, even payrolls in the 50–100k range could still tighten the labour market. Other labour indicators this week include the JOLTS report tomorrow and ADP data on Wednesday.

Also on Wednesday, Q2 US GDP is expected to show a +2.1% print, rebounding from -0.5% in Q1. Thursday brings the crucial June core PCE data, alongside personal income and consumption figures. Rounding out the US data highlights, we’ll see the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for July tomorrow (DB forecast 96.1 vs 93.0 in June), the Q2 employment cost index, and the ISM manufacturing gauge for July on Friday (DB forecast 49.5 vs 49.0 in June).

In other US news, the Treasury refunding announcement is due Wednesday, following today’s borrowing estimate. Remember that a couple of summers ago this announcement shocked markets with unexpectedly large long-term debt auctions. However, since then, the Treasury has managed the process to avoid such surprises. 

In Europe, July CPI and preliminary Q2 GDP figures will be released across major economies. Spain’s inflation report comes Wednesday, followed by France, Italy and Germany on Thursday, and the Eurozone on Friday. GDP prints begin with Spain on Tuesday, then Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone on Wednesday. Labour market data will also be released throughout the week. Tomorrow, the ECB will publish its consumer expectations survey for June.

In Asia, key releases include July PMIs in China on Thursday and Friday, and Japan’s June industrial production, retail sales and July consumer confidence on Thursday. Bloomberg’s median estimates suggest China’s manufacturing PMI will remain unchanged at 49.7, while the non-manufacturing index is expected to dip slightly to 50.3 from 50.5 in June.
Corporate earnings will be intense, with 159 S&P 500 and 113 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. The spotlight will be on Microsoft and Meta (Wednesday), followed by Apple and Amazon (Thursday)—together representing 20% of the S&P 500. Expect plenty of focus on AI capex and monetisation prospects. See the full week ahead in their day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

In Asia this morning markets are relatively subdued outside of DM futures with the Nikkei (-0.99%) the main decliner. Mainland Chinese stocks are largely flat but with the Hang Seng +0.4% higher and the KOSPI up +0.25%. USTs are flat but 10yr JGBs are -4.3bps lower. S&P (+0.42%) and Nasdaq (+0.57%) futures are higher.

Looking back at last week now, the US reached significant tariff agreements with the Philippines (19%), Indonesia (19%) and Japan (15%). Mr Trump’s deal with Japan was notably lower than expected (15% vs 25%), including a reduced tariff on Japanese automobiles. This helped the Nikkei gain +4.11% over the week, with its best daily performance (+3.51%) since the 90-day extension announced in April. Globally, markets responded positively, buoyed by optimism that more deals would be finalised before August 1. Mr Trump stated on Friday that most deals were done and that “some letters will say 10%, 15% tariff rate.” The S&P 500 rose +0.49% on Friday to a new record high (+1.88% on the week), despite Mr Trump’s comments about limited negotiations with Canada and potential unilateral tariffs.

In Europe, markets started the week lower amid concerns over stalled US-EU negotiations, but sentiment improved as reports suggested a deal centred around a 15% tariff rate was close. The STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 both ended the week up +0.57%, though Germany’s DAX slipped -0.32%.

Elsewhere, ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a surprisingly hawkish tone on Thursday as the ECB held rates steady for the first time this year. This led investors to reassess the likelihood of further cuts, with only 16bps of easing now priced by year-end (-8.1bps on the week). Two-year bund yields rose +7.8bps. On Friday, ECB’s François Villeroy de Galhau said the bank should “remain completely open on future decisions,” and highlighted the euro’s rise, noting its “significant disinflationary effects.” The euro gained +0.82% against sterling, reaching its highest level since late 2023.

Meanwhile, in the US, the Treasury curve flattened sharply amid easing trade concerns, strong data and reduced fears that Mr. Trump might dismiss Fed Chair Powell. Data highlights included the lowest weekly jobless claims since April (217k vs 226 expected) and the strongest composite PMI since December (54.6 vs 52.8). The two-year yield rose +5.4bps on the week, while the ten-year yield fell -2.8bps—marking the steepest flattening of the 2s10s curve since February. On Friday, the ten-year yield dipped -0.8bps as Mr Trump reassured markets he wouldn’t fire Powell, quoting Powell as saying “the country is doing well,” which Mr Trump interpreted as a signal for lower rates. Still, Fed futures continue to price in less than 1bp of easing for this week’s FOMC meeting.