Just hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of an impending “massive” escalation by Moscow, the skies over the Ukrainian capital erupted in a flurry of inbound drone and missile activity.

At least 20 people were killed and several dozen injured in the overnight multi-wave Russian missile and drone assault that overwhelmed Kiev’s air defense umbrella. The sheer scale of the bombardment indicates a significant ramping up of Moscow’s retaliation strategy, after Russian territory has in turn suffered many weeks – even months – of significant drone attacks particularly targeting oil refineries and energy infrastructure.

The capital’s Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that six floors of an apartment building had partially collapsed after a direct hit from a Russian projectile. “Kyiv is under attack from ballistic missiles and UAVs,” Klitschko wrote on Telegram in the night hours.

Officials also noted that at least two children were among the injured and three dozen locations across the city had been damaged in the attacks, according to AFP. Klitschko also said it marked the “most massive” attack night on the capital to date. BBC explains:

Although previous attacks have killed more people, this latest barrage deployed the largest number of weapons on the capital and hit locations over a very wide area of Kyiv.

Several neighbourhoods were evacuated as strikes rocked buildings throughout the city, hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia was preparing an attack.

The Ukrainian Air Force released a fiery Telegram statement in the wake of the assault: “We express our condolences to all the victims, families who lost their relatives and loved ones in this terrible terrorist attack. We will take revenge!” the statement said.

Residents says that such attacks are becoming more intense, cover a wider area of the capital region, and last longer. “The attack on Kyiv lasted more than 11 hours and came in several waves starting with a drone strike on Kyiv’s historic quarter, setting off a fire in a hotel in the city center,” BBC additionally reports.

WATCH: Massive overnight Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv.

Raw footage shows explosions, air-defense interceptions, and fires across the capital as residential buildings were struck.

Zelensky cut short his visit to Ireland in the wake of the attack. pic.twitter.com/pSrR578is8

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 2, 2026

NBC separately details: 

Damage was recorded in 30 locations across the city, mainly residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, said Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said 20 residential buildings were damaged across the city. The Emergency Service says it deployed nearly 500 personnel and 100 units of specialized vehicles, including a helicopter, to deal with the aftermath of the attack.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on Ukraine’s allies to strengthen the country’s air defenses following what he described as a “night of horror” in Kyiv, urging partners not to delay decisions on supplying air defense systems and missiles. Writing on X, Sybiha said the death toll after the attack may rise as the rescue teams continued their work.

As for numbers of projectiles, Ukraine’s air force tallied that Russia launched 74 missiles and 496 drones during the attack. This is an immense amount to be concentrated on the capital alone. The military claimed its air defense units downed most of those, but still 25 ballistic missiles and 12 drones struck 33 locations – per the statement.

A raw, high-quality footage via DRM News of last night’s Russian large-scale aerial attack on Kyiv.

The activity of Ukrainian air defenses, impacts of Russian drones and missiles, as well as fires starting in the city can be seen, among other things.

According to the Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/eiGdJczhSg

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) July 2, 2026

Neighboring Poland indicated that the attack was so large that it briefly scrambled fighter jets on Thursday as a preventive measure to monitor any potential air space violations for inbound missiles, drones, or interceptors. It said the warplanes returned to base once it became clear there were no violations.

US equity futures have reversed all overnight losses which were driven by the latest crash in South Korean stocks, which plunged 8% and closed at LOD, driven by a plunge in memory stocks. Still, the Nasdaq is still lower with tech stocks depressed on news that Sam Altman’s OpenAI is seeking to offer a 5% stake to Trump in what is clearly an attempt to incentivize the government to backstop the company whose revenues are clearly below budget. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% after semiconductors and high beta momentum led Wall Street lower in the previous session; the latest bout of tech volatility entered a second day, with chipmakers in South Korea bearing the brunt of the selling. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics lost a combined $290 billion in value to drive a 7.9% slump in South Korea’s Kospi index. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.6%, with technology among only two of the 20 index sectors to lose ground. Elsewhere, the dollar fell, as USDJPY suffered a sudden plunge on intervention concerns, and US 10-year yields +2bps at 4.50%, WTI -1.49% @ $67.55. All eyes on NFP later this AM (consensus at +113k, see our preview) and subsequent Fed pricing (market currently pricing in ~30% chance of a hike at July meeting) following yesterday’s Momentum drawdown (High Beta Momo finished -9.62%, second worst day YTD, top 5 worst days over last 5 years). So far the spillover from overnight price action has been limited, with KOSPI -7.89%, NKY -2.5% as yesterday’s META headlines continue to drive anxiety around overcapacity fears. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixe: ( Microsoft +0.7%, Apple +0.4%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.6%, Meta +0.3%, Alphabet -0.6%, Nvidia -0.5%)

• Cloud and other AI infrastructure stocks (CRWV -1.1%, IREN -2.2%, AMD -1.4%, INTC -1.3%) are extending losses as Meta’s plan to develop a business that would sell access to AI computing power raised worries about overcapacity.
• Adobe Inc. shares (ADBE) are up 2.8% after HSBC upgraded the software company to buy from hold.
• Chevron Corp. shares (CVX) rise 0.6% after Wolfe Research raised its recommendation on the energy company to outperform from peerperform as it sees free cash flow driving growth.
• Honeywell Aerospace Inc. shares (HONA) are up 0.3% after BMO Capital Markets started coverage on the company with an outperform rating and $276 price target.
• Infleqtion Inc. (INFQ) rises 3.7% after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage with a recommendation of buy.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. shares (PLTR) rise 3.7% after DA Davidson & Co raised its recommendation to buy from neutral as it sees the technology company having a competitive advantage to artificial intelligence companies that have been at odds with the US government.
• Waystar Holding Corp. shares (WAY) are up 1.9% after KeyBanc Capital Markets started coverage on the healthcare software company with an overweight rating and $30 price target.

The frequent swings in the market’s biggest drivers come as traders react to any sign that a near-parabolic rally in chipmakers, the biggest beneficiaries of the vast outlays on AI infrastructure, has run too far (spoiler alert: it has). In the latest instance, Meta’s plan to sell computing power raised questions about a glut of capacity. The Kospi, the poster child retail-driven momentum chasing idiocy and the AI trade, fell 7.9% after memory heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix were rattled by news that Apple is in talks to buy chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers on a Pentagon blacklist to help reduce the impact of a global memory shortage. 

Meanwhile, investors are rotating into laggards that stand to benefit from a strengthening economic outlook just as money-market bets on tighter monetary policy recede. Consumer-orientated stocks led gains in Europe on Thursday, tracking Wednesday’s US moves when a majority of S&P 500 stocks advanced. By contrast, memory, storage and processing names were again among the biggest decliners in US premarket trading. Sandisk, Seagate and Dell were all down 3% or more.

“The market recognizes the risks associated with a potential overvaluation in the tech sector,” said Guillermo Hernández Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “Whether a major shift away from the tech sector is underway will become apparent by the next round of quarterly earnings reports.”

Investors will also focus on the US jobs report at the end of a holiday-shortened week. The data will offer fresh clues on the path for interest rates after comments Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh dampened speculation of a hike this year.

For jobs report at 8:30am New York time, Bloomberg’s crowd-sourced whisper number for nonfarm payrolls change is 138k vs median economist estimate of 113k; unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.Bloomberg Economics anticipates a hot payrolls report will show the US economy added 200,000 jobs in June. That would be a third straight extremely strong print, with the three-month average job increase likely clocking in at 183,000.  

“A strong payrolls report — particularly if we see healthy gains in hourly wages — would likely increase market bets on rate hikes this year,” according to Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong.

Our full preview is here; in its preview Goldman estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 130k in June, above consensus of +115k. On the positive side, the bank estimates that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in June. Additionally, June payrolls have exhibited a consistent positive bias in initial prints over the last decade which has been particularly pronounced in state and local government education services payrolls. On the negative side, GS expects a 10k decline in government payrolls outside of state and local government educational services. 

The options market is pricing in a roughly 0.5% move for the S&P 500 in response to NFPs, according to Bloomberg calculations, broadly in line with last month’s muted expectations despite the June release triggering a 2.6% selloff.

European stocks rose as investors looked for alternatives to expensive tech shares in more defensive sectors. Technology significantly underperforms, while personal care, food and beverage stocks outperform. The Stoxx 600 index rises 0.5% to 642.64 with 422 members up, 167 down and 11 unchanged. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Sodexo rises as much as 10%, the most since April 2023, after the French food services company reported third-quarter results ahead of expectations and raised its organic revenue forecast for the full year
• CTS Eventim rises as much as 6.1% after Oddo BHF upgrades the stock to outperform, saying its de-rating of about 50% over the past year leaves the live events company trading at deeply discounted multiples and an appealing valuation
• SKF shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since June 15, after the Swedish ball-bearings group signed an agreement with Leaderdrive to establish a venture in China
• Carrefour shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in just under a year, after UBS upgrades the French grocer to buy from neutral, calling the stock “too cheap to ignore”
• Amplifon rises as much as 5.5% in Milan trading after Equita raised the Italian hearing-aid company’s stock to buy from hold, citing its competitive position, visible synergies and the discount at which the shares trade
• Cloetta shares rise as much as 8.5%, the most since early May, after the Swedish confectioner announced a deal with US grocery chain DeCicco to introduce Swedish pick-and-mix-style candy in its New York stores
• Hemnet gains as much as 13%, the most in almost two years, as JPMorgan flagged improving June listings data. Today regulatory filings also showed Hemnet’s third-biggest shareholder, GCQ Funds Management, has increased its stake
• Currys shares drop as much as 5.3% after the electronics and appliance retailer signaled it’s comfortable with the analyst consensus, which may signal limited upside to estimates for the time being
• Baltic Classifieds Group shares drop as much as 12%, the most in seven months, after the online classifieds operator issued weaker-than-expected fiscal 2027 guidance and reported a slight revenue miss for 2026
• European semiconductor stocks fall, tracking an overnight selloff in US peers 

Asian stocks headed for the lowest close in three weeks as concerns over excess AI capacity and intensifying competition sparked a selloff in high-flying chip shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.4%, with South Korea’s Kospi tumbling almost 8% to lead regional declines. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lost at least 9% each to be the biggest drags on the regional benchmark, while TSMC and Japan’s Kioxia also slumped. The moves followed losses in US semiconductor shares that saw Micron Technology and Sandisk plunge more than 10%. The selloff came as Meta Platforms’s reported plans to build a cloud infrastructure business that would sell access to AI computing power and models fueled concern the company may have overbuilt its capacity. Separately, Apple is in talks to buy chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers, according to people familiar with the matter, which would hurt South Korean manufacturers. The iPhone maker late last month raised prices of all Macs, iPads, home devices and the Vision Pro, stoking concern that rising costs may start to curb demand and spurring a broad rout in global tech shares at the time. Equities in India and Southeast Asia bucked the regional selloff while stocks in Hong Kong also rose on return from a public holiday.

In FX, USD/JPY has been on the move with the pair down around 130 pips. The move was set in motion by comments from South Korea that is was closely communicating with the US and Japan on FX intervention, before experiencing a much steeper decline. Reporting via Reuters notes that Japan could shift to surprise Yen intervention tactics. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%, enabling EUR/USD to return to a 1.14 handle.

In rates, treasuries are under slight pressure ahead of the release of June employment data with potential to alter the outlook for a Fed rate hike at the end of the month. US long-end yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper with front-end tenors little changed, steepening 2s10s spread by 2bp. 10-year is near 4.49%, 1.4bp higher on the day, with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 3bp and 4bp. About 8bp of Fed tightening is priced in for the July 29 policy decision, 35bp by the end of the year. European benchmarks are being sold to a greater extent with 10 year yields in Germany and the UK up 4 basis points each.  With US markets closed Friday, jobs report is being released a day earlier than normal, and Sifma recommended 2pm close for cash trading.

In commodities, WTI crude is lower for a third consecutive day, back below $68 a barrel, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz improve and there are signs of progress in indirect talks between the US and Iran. Precious metals are building on yesterday’s gains with spot gold and silver up 1% and 1.4% respectively. Bitcoin adds 0.7%. 

Today’s US economic data calendar also include weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and May factory orders with durable goods orders revision (10am), Fed speaker slate includes Daly at 7:45am in moderated discussion at a Banco de España conference.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• OpenAI has discussed giving a 5% stake to the US government as the $852bn AI start-up seeks to clear political obstacles by securing financial buy-in from the Trump administration. FT
• The definition of circular funding: Nvidia is using its balance sheet to help more companies buy its expensive AI chips: The Information 
• Iran’s struggling to find buyers for its oil before a 60-day window granted by the US expires. More than 58 million barrels of its crude and condensate was on the water as of July 1, but over 90% has no clear destination. BBG
• At least five supertankers carrying a total 10 million barrels ‌of Saudi oil loaded from Ras Tanura have exited the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi Aramco switching to spot pricing to speed sales in Asia, according to trade sources and shipping data. RTRS
• Sales of cars, air conditioners and TVs fell rapidly in China last month as the impact of government subsidies faded, raising pressure on policymakers to stimulate the economy. Nikkei
• Power demand across New York is expected to peak today as heat strains the grid ahead of the July 4 weekend. The New York Independent System Operator forecast demand of 32,410 MW, just shy of the record set in July 2013. BBG
• The yen climbed amid speculation of a fresh round of interventions. Japan may shift to surprise tactics to wipe out ‌speculative positions. BBG
• Russian missiles and drones pounded Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities overnight and early Thursday morning, killing at least 17 people and wounding more than 80, according to Ukrainian officials. WSJ
• US nonfarm payrolls probably rose 113,000 in June, with the jobless rate holding steady at 4.3%, consensus shows. Bloomberg Economics predicts a 200,000 gain, helped in part by the World Cup and bolstering expectations for rate hikes this year. BBG
• The US government is in advanced talks with AI companies to create voluntary standards for the release of new models after intervening in the rollout of state of the art tools from Anthropic and OpenAI. FT
• The Trump administration is reportedly ready to launch “Trump Accounts” next week, but not allow firms to host children’s savings accounts on their own systems, Semafor reported citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed but with the major indices predominantly in the red following the tech-related losses on Wall St, while participants also brace for the incoming Non-Farm Payrolls report in a holiday-shortened trading week stateside. ASX 200 was rangebound as strength in the top-weighted financial sector was offset by losses in the utilities, tech, energy and consumer sectors, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Australian trade data. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open amid tech selling and recent upside in yields, although the index then staged a partial rebound, before selling resumed later in the session. KOSPI slumped amid the pressure in memory chip stocks, and triggered a sidecar in early trade. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the mainland conforming to the broad risk-off mood, while the Hong Kong benchmark bucked the trend amid strength in local tech, biopharmaceutical and auto names on return from the holiday closure.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s Government Panellist Nagahama said that the BoJ should raise rates once every six months; this would not hurt domestic investment.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) initially started Thursday’s trade on a softer footing but have climbed off their lows, with all indices in the green, outside of the AEX (-0.3%). Sentiment overnight was on the softer side, following another tech selloff in South Korean stocks (Samsung -9.1%, SK Hynix -14.6%) after Meta plans to sell excess AI compute to build a cloud business, raising questions over excess in AI capacity. However, with Europe lacking the big AI giants, this seems to support the Euro area. European sectors point to a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care (+2.1%) tops the sector pile, followed by Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+2.0%) and Health Care (+1.5%). As expected, Technology (-1.9%) is the clear sector laggard and the only sector in the red.

Top European News

• Germany’s ruling coalition unveiled a package of reforms, including EUR 10bln in annual tax relief for lower-income earners, changes to the pension system and building more affordable housing.
• Germany’s VDMA reported May industrial orders -1% Y/Y, driven by weak domestic demand and a general decline across the EZ.

FX

• DXY trades lower this morning, and trades at the bottom end of a 100.95 to 101.43 range. Pressure which comes after the lack of hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh at Wednesday’s policy panel, and with the move further exacerbated by a hefty move in the JPY this morning.
• On that front, this morning saw large and immediate selling pressure in USD/JPY, where the pair fell from 162.20 to a trough of 161.12. The pair then pared back about a third of that move, stabilising around 161.80, before then taking another beating towards the session low of 160.89 – now trading at levels not seen since 18 June.
• Given the sheer size of the move lower, it does appear to be the case that this is potentially intervention, rather than a rate check. Details of whether they enacted a form of intervention will be released in the monthly release, which is released on the last business day of every month.
• The move comes after Reuters reported that Japan would abandon its habit of warning the markets of intervention. The aim of this is to squeeze speculators and increase the cost of betting against the JPY.
• The potential intervention comes ahead of today’s NFP report; a USD positive report could see some of the “potential intervention” move be pared back. To preview the report in brief, US non-farm payrolls for June are expected to print 110K (prev. 172K), with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.3%.
• Other G10s are stronger against the USD this morning. JPY unsurprisingly outperforms, followed by the GBP and CHF. For the latter, Switzerland reported in-line/cooler-than-expected inflation metrics, which broadly play in favour of keeping rates on hold for the foreseeable future.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks trade on a softer footing ahead of the US payrolls data while Germany announces a new set of reforms.
• USTs (-3 ticks) are lower by a handful of ticks, trading just shy of Wednesday’s low of 109-12+. Looking ahead to the June jobs report; NFP expected at 110K (prev. 172K), unemployment to hold steady at 4.3%, average hourly earnings Y/Y expected at 3.5% (prev. 3.4%). In terms of technical levels, downside levels include 109-16 (prior week’s low), 108-27 (key support level) and 108-10 (worst low seen due to Iran conflict). 110-00+ is the key level to the upside.
• Bunds (-38 ticks), unlike USTs, have extended on Wednesday’s trough, currently trading at the lower end of its 126.78-127.06 range. German Chancellor Merz’s coalition unveiled a package of reforms earlier, which included EUR 10bln in annual tax relief for lower-income earners, changes to the pension system and building more affordable housing. The overall aim is to restore competitiveness in Europe’s biggest economy. Although the move lower in German debt has not been excessive, it could be a potential reason for the downside in German debt, as it brings growth back into the economy.
• OATs (-34 ticks) follow their German counterpart. In the upcoming months, French debt will be more in focus as the Presidential elections near. Political uncertainty continues to remain. More recently, the Green Party announced that it would put forward a motion of no confidence over the government’s handling of the recent heat wave. However, this attempt to bring down PM Lecornuʼs government is likely to fail without the support of other opposition parties. The preference for German debt over OATs is clearly shown in the spread, currently trading at 75bps, up from the 58bps seen at the start of June.
• The UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.31x (prev. 3.63x), average yield 4.934% (prev. 4.975%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• France sells EUR 14.0bln vs exp. EUR 12.5-14bln 1.25% 2036, 3.70% 2036, 4.50% 2041 and 4.10% 2046 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.958bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.60% 2031, 3.25% 2034 and 3.40% 2036 Bono and EUR 0.695bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono.
• Japan sells JPY 1.96tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.13x (prev. 3.53x), average yield 2.729% (prev. 2.649%).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are on the backfoot, after mediators suggested positive progress was made in the US-Iran indirect conversation. Conversely, gas benchmarks continue to rise with Dutch TTF above EUR 44/MWh as the European forecast points to renewed heat.
• Brent down to a USD 70.38/bbl base, though it has reverted back towards the USD 71.00/bbl but remains in the red. The mentioned base is the lowest print since the end of February, when USD 70.20/bbl printed for the September contract. ,
• For today, US NFP will dominate the macro narrative, with a full Newsquawk preview available. Specifically for energy, we await any further update from the US-Iran talks, and while the mediator-led exchange has now concluded, we could still see updates as the parties agreed to continue talks over the “coming period”.
• Spot gold at a USD 4080/oz peak. In a recovery from the move below USD 4k/oz seen in the last two sessions. Upside today is a function of a weaker USD and relatively steady UST action. As above, impetus will come from the US NFP report.
• Base peers are under pressure, despite the constructive European risk tone and the mentioned USD pressure. As the complex follows the downbeat performance seen in mainland China overnight, and despite Hong Kong seeing strength on its holiday return.
• US President Trump posted that oil prices are plummeting fast and gas prices at the pump are dropping too, but not as fast as they should be, while he announced the Freedom Fuel Network will be lowering gas prices at 25 “FREEDOM FUEL” stations across the Greater Philadelphia Area.
• Venezuela’s oil production was expected to recover to 1.1mln-1.2mln BPD by the end of Q2 2026 as the US expands export authorisations, allowing more companies to transport and market Venezuelan crude
• Saudi Aramco has reportedly increased its exports from the Ras Tanura port and have shifted to spot sales, according to sources.
• Hengli Petrochemical has reportedly cancelled its recent purchases of West African and Middle East oil purchases and also cut refinery operations, according to Reuters sources.
• Dubai spot crude’s discount to swaps widened to more than USD 4.00/bbl, the largest gap since May 2020, according to Refinitiv data.
• UBS cuts its end-2026 gold forecast to USD 5k/oz, due to elevated interest rates.

Trade

• China’s MOFCOM said China and the EU agreed to up to two annual ministerial trade talks and have invited EU’s Trade Commissioner Sefcovic to visit in the Fall.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US official said the US is hopeful that Iran will come to the table to negotiate seriously, but is prepared to walk away if they do not, according to a New York Post reporter on X
• US has informed Iran that changing the status quo around the Strait of Hormuz would be a violation of the current understanding and would be unacceptable, according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Iran said it will respond to US interventions in the Strait of Hormuz, Fars reported.
• Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said Qatar and Pakistan mediators concluded separate meetings with US and Iranian negotiators in Doha, while it added that positive progress was made on issues related to the Islamabad MoU. It also stated that the parties agreed to continue discussion over the coming period, with the next meeting to be scheduled at the earliest possible time following the funeral processions of the former Iranian supreme leader.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the claim that inspectors of the IAEA have access to the sites that were bombed is false, while he added that under no circumstances will access be granted to sites that were bombed and damaged.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Doha talks focused on US violations of the MoU and frozen assets. Gharibabadi separately commented that the Strait of Hormuz is defined under Iran’s command, not CENTCOM, as well as stated that regional security is ensured by the end of interference and the departure of the US from the region, respect for the sovereignty of countries and acceptance of new geopolitical realities, not under the military umbrella of the US.
• Senior source told Al-Hadath that Iran is allowed to purchase American agricultural products using a portion of its frozen funds, but noted that no cash payments are to be dispersed to Iran
• Lebanon’s PM said negotiations with Israel lack a deal framework, and the government seeks a timeline for Israel’s withdrawal and insists on exclusive state control of weapons
• Israeli drones struck Al-Dir in southern Lebanon and Israeli shelling was also reported on the outskirts of Quneitra in Syria, while Israeli forces conducted night raids in Jenin and Ramallah, in the West Bank.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Armed Forces said it hit a Kyiv plant that produces control systems for specific missiles, RIA reported.
• Russian Defence Ministry said it shot down 327 Ukrainian drones overnight.
• Air defence systems were reportedly repelling a Russian drone attack on Kyiv, while it was separately reported that multiple explosions were heard in Ukraine’s capital which was under ballistic missile attack.
• Ukrainian military said it has struck the Kstovo oil refinery in Russia.

Geopolitics: Other

• China warned two Japanese Coast Guard survey vessels to stop conducting maritime surveys in the disputed East China Sea, prompting Japan to lodge a formal diplomatic protest.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jun Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 112.5k, prior 172k
• 8:30 am: United States Jun Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 3k, prior 7k
• 8:30 am: United States Jun Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Jun 27 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 218k, prior 215k
• 8:30 am: United States Jun 20 Continuing Claims, est. 1820k, prior 1821k
• 9:30 am: Canada Jun S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI, prior 52.9
• 10:00 am: United States May Factory Orders, est. -2%, prior 4.8%
• 10:00 am: United States May F Durable Goods Orders, est. -4.5%, prior -4.5%
• 10:00 am: United States May F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have had a rocky start so far to Q3, with global bonds and equities losing ground over the last 24 hours. The main culprit has been another slide in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index down -6.27%. And those losses have continued overnight, with South Korea’s KOSPI down -5.06% this morning. Moreover, an underwhelming batch of US data hasn’t helped matters, with the S&P 500 (-0.22%) and the STOXX 600 (-0.38%) both pulling back as well yesterday.

Yet despite those negative headlines, the performance actually hasn’t been so bad if you look beyond the tech slump. Indeed, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.24%) hit a new record as markets dialled back the chance of an imminent Fed rate hike. In addition, positive geopolitical headlines pushed Brent crude oil (-1.85%) to a 4-month low of $71.57/bbl, and this morning that’s continued, with Brent down another -1.06% to $70.81/bbl. So even as the headline numbers pointed towards fresh losses, there was still a fair amount of optimism among investors.

Those glimmers of positivity have been reflected overnight, where both US and European equity futures have stabilised. For instance, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.09%) and the DAX (+0.27%) are both in positive territory. And even though many indices in Asia have lost ground this morning, they’ve recovered from their lows earlier in the session. Indeed, the Nikkei is down -1.61%, but it had been down -2.55% in the first hour of trading. Similarly, the CSI 300 is down -1.85%, but had been down -2.45% earlier on. And several indices are still higher, including the Hang Seng (+1.19%), and Japan’s TOPIX index (+0.63%).

One of those positive catalysts was headlines from Fed Chair Warsh yesterday, who spoke at the ECB’s Sintra forum. He declined to offer any forward guidance, but markets latched onto his comment that “inflation risks have come down”, even as he reiterated his commitment to price stability. So that meant investors priced out the chance of a July hike, with the futures-implied probability falling from 34% on Tuesday to just 27% by the close. And looking further out, the number of hikes priced by December fell -1.4bps on the day to just 36bps.

That dovish repricing then got further momentum from the latest batch of US data, which was generally a bit softer than expected. For instance, the ADP’s report of private payrolls came in at 98k in June (vs. 120k expected). And shortly after, the ISM manufacturing fell to 53.3 in June (vs. 53.9 expected), with the prices paid component down to a 4-month low of 73.0. So collectively that pushed back against the hawkish narrative and led markets to price out the July hike. Nevertheless, longer-dated Treasury yields still inched higher, with the 10yr yield (+1.4bps) up to 4.48%.

Looking forward, US data will stay in the spotlight today, as the June jobs report is out at 13:30 London time. As a reminder, the last three jobs reports all surprised on the upside, pushing the 3-month average of payrolls to a two-year high of +188k. So that’s been a crucial factor behind the hawkish repricing in recent weeks. For today, our US economists forecast payrolls to come in at +75k, largely reflecting expected payback from strong government and leisure/hospitality hiring last month. Meanwhile, they think the unemployment rate will stay at 4.3%, where it’s been for the last 3 consecutive months.

Over in the Euro Area, yesterday also brought some dovish headlines after the flash CPI print surprised on the downside. It showed headline CPI falling more than expected to +2.8% in June (vs. +3.0% expected), with core CPI also down to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected). So that led markets to price in a more dovish path for the ECB over the months ahead, with just 19bps of rate hikes priced in by the December meeting at the close, down -4.3bps on the day. And overnight that’s continued, with just 18bps of hikes now priced in this year. Indeed, with fewer than 25bps now priced by the December meeting, it means investors are pricing in around a one-in-four chance that the ECB might not hike at all again this year.

In the meantime, ECB President Lagarde also spoke on the same panel as Warsh, although her comments didn’t obviously push markets in either direction. She said that the upside inflation and downside growth risks “are probably more broadly balanced than they were a few weeks ago”. But there wasn’t anything that dominated the headlines. So front-end yields fell back in line with the dovish repricing, with the 2yr German yield down -1.6bps. But as in the US, there was a bigger push higher at the long end of the curve, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.0bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) all rising.

As all that was happening, the dovish momentum got further support from the latest decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-1.85%) falling to a 4-month low of $71.57/bbl. That followed positive headlines on the US-Iran talks, after Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were in Qatar on Tuesday. For instance, Trump said that “They’ve had very good meetings”, and AFP reported yesterday that US and Iranian officials were holding indirect lower-level technical talks with mediators. Ongoing talks were then later confirmed by Vice President Vance, who said that the “negotiators are sitting down with the Iranians, with the Qataris, and with others in Doha, talking about some of the details here”. So the newsflow helped to bring oil prices down and ease investor concern about inflation.

When it came to equities, the dovish momentum was countered by a fresh selloff in chip stocks, which saw the Philly semiconductor index fall -6.27%. So that dragged down US equities more broadly, with the S&P 500 (-0.22%) pulling back after gains on Monday and Tuesday. Nevertheless, there were still broader gains, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.24%) hit a new record. Moreover, there was a big jump for Meta (+8.81%), which was the third-strongest performer in the S&P 500 yesterday, after Bloomberg reported they were developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business. However, European equities struggled in the meantime, with the STOXX 600 (-0.38%) pulling back as well.
In other news, the US has said they won’t renew the USMCA trade deal but will instead conduct annual reviews. The original deal said that the countries could unanimously agree on a 16-year extension, but US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said they were “not prepared to rubber stamp the agreement”, and that “there are substantial issues.” The deal is still in place for another decade if no one leaves, but this now begins a 10-year countdown to expiry in 2036 if an agreement isn’t reached.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US jobs report for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, factory orders for May, and the Euro Area unemployment rate for May. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly, the ECB’s Escriva and Cipollone, and the BoE’s Mann.

“Set your AC to 78 degrees, turn off lights/electronics you’re not using, and unplug what you can,” New York City Socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani wrote on X late Wednesday.

New Yorkers are now getting a real-world lesson in what Mamdani’s recent “warmth of collectivism” comments actually mean: shared sacrifice, including being told to dial back air conditioning during blistering heat as the risk of power blackouts rises.

New York: it’s hot out there, and the power grid is working overtime to keep us cool.

Set your AC to 78 degrees, turn off lights/electronics you’re not using, and unplug what you can.

Our City is doing its part too: maintaining the 78 degrees rule in our buildings,…

— Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@NYCMayor) July 1, 2026

The deeper issue here is that years of left-wing climate policies and poor grid management have left the metro area and the broader region increasingly vulnerable during peak-demand hours.

Temperatures are forecast to top 100F across NYC and large parts of the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast beginning today. The extreme weather is set to sharply drive up cooling demand, just as power grids are already under pressure from failed climate-change policies colliding with the era of data centers.

On Tuesday, the Energy Department issued emergency orders allowing PJM Interconnection power plants to bypass certain environmental limits to keep electricity flowing. Backup generators have been placed on standby on the grid serving 67 million people across 13 states.

New York City power prices climbed above $1,100 per megawatt-hour by late Wednesday afternoon. PJM expects to break its all-time peak load record of 165.5 gigawatts later today.

Authored by Amirhossein Eshtiaghi via The Mises Institute,

Bernie Sanders is a socialist populist. His unfamiliarity with the fundamentals of economics explains why he considers Denmark to be socialist. A former Danish Prime Minister once implicitly addressed such claims, noting that Denmark’s economy is not socialist, but rather a market economy. But the truth does not matter to American leftists.

He has now made headlines again with a bill that would expand state participation in the AI sector—a plan that, contrary to the claims of his supporters, could have disastrous consequences. In the following, these consequences are briefly examined.

This Is a Fascist Policy

Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany, after the Soviet Union, were among the countries with the highest levels of state ownership and state control over the economy. In both Germany and Italy, the state controlled many companies, while private firms operated under strict state supervision and intervention. The Nazis nationalized nearly half of the economy and then used extensive regulations to bring the private sector under state control. Mussolini followed a similar approach. The state determined what goods would be produced, how they would be produced, and in what form they would be supplied.

Sanders says that artificial intelligence does not belong to billionaires but to the people. Fascists and Nazis used the same argument—that the private sector should be organized in line with the public interest—to justify extensive intervention in the market. In fact, Hitler and Mussolini were able to control the means of production in much the same way without removing corporate managers.

Comparing Sanders to fascism may seem unusual, but it should not be forgotten that the main leaders of Italian fascism, including Mussolini, were initially socialists before they became fascists. In fact, as Thomas DiLorenzo argues in his book The Problem with Socialism, fascism had socialist origins.

Regarding state ownership and state influence over AI, Sanders and Trump take similar approaches. Trump himself has admitted that the economic views of his voters and Sanders’s voters “aren’t that far apart”—and that may be one of the few honest statements Trump has made in his life. In fact, both are populists and seek to expand state power and weaken the free market economy.

Therefore, Sanders’s proposal, or similar proposals, could allow the state to gain control over the AI industry while preserving the appearance of private ownership. In that sense, such proposals can reasonably be described as fascistic, since they enable state control over production without formally abolishing the private sector.

A Threat to Civil Liberties

States have always used intelligence agencies and affiliated institutions to restrict social freedoms, silence opponents, and monitor users online. They also pressure various platforms to hand over user data so it can be used to suppress dissent. If the state becomes the owner of artificial intelligence companies, it will be able to collect users’ information freely and without any obstacles.

Sanders’s supporters might privately believe that this would be a useful tool for monitoring opponents, allowing the state to identify and silence those who oppose their leftist ideology. However, it must be remembered that this power is being granted to the state, not to a specific political party. If figures like Trump—or any other authoritarian personality—come to power, this authority will fall into their hands, allowing them to suppress those very same leftists. It empowers states to monitor anyone they deem an “undesirable element.” Ultimately, this could pose a serious threat to liberty.

Politicians already possess considerable power; control over artificial intelligence would multiply that power many times over—and more power brings more corruption.

Weakening Innovation

This policy threatens innovation. State favoritism can make it difficult for new and creative players to enter the market and can slow the process of “creative destruction.” It should also be noted that the managers of AI companies might even welcome such a situation, since it could allow them to eliminate new competitors in the industry and reach a monopolistic position.

After all, once the state enters the field, companies could rely on the support of politicians so they no longer have to compete with non-American companies. They might even use the argument that the state is a shareholder in AI companies to justify banning the use of AI systems from other countries in the United States.

The support of some AI companies’ executives for proposals that would lead to state involvement in this industry is highly suspicious. We will have to wait and see what happens, but it is possible that Sanders’s bill could actually help those same billionaires eliminate their competitors.

Technology Should Not Be Held Back

Obstructing technological growth is both foolish and harmful. The claim that artificial intelligence destroys jobs is a deceptive and misleading argument. Opposing AI in order to preserve certain jobs is just as irrational as trying to stop the spread of the internet because the use of email caused some postal workers to lose their jobs.

By the same logic, we should have banned the light bulb because it led to job losses in the candle-making industry. Likewise, we should have abandoned modern textile machinery because it allowed the same amount of clothing to be produced with fewer workers.

If we follow this line of reasoning to its logical conclusion, we would have to return to the Stone Age. Innovation should not be stopped. Technological advancement and innovation are the primary engines of productivity growth and rising living standards. Just as old jobs disappear, new employment opportunities emerge. For example, many workers from traditional industries can find work in newer and more productive sectors of the economy. We should not hinder the growth of industries that can improve the lives of billions of people merely to preserve the jobs of a limited number of individuals.

A Populist Claim

Artificial intelligence, like any other industry, is built by entrepreneurs and producers, and its products are exchanged in the marketplace. The assertion that, “AI does not belong to billionaires; it belongs to the people” is akin to claiming that potatoes do not belong to their farmers but to “the people,” and that therefore, 50 percent of all farmland must be seized by the state.

Sanders is a master of slogans like “Billionaires shouldn’t exist,” and he is strategic in this choice. Were he to replace “billionaires” with “millionaires,” the slogan would inevitably implicate him and leftist celebrities. It benefits him to funnel jealousy toward billionaires, thereby shielding himself from public outrage.

If wealth is inherently evil, then being a millionaire is equally so. In that case, the left would be forced to chant slogans such as “Millionaires should not exist”—or perhaps even say, “Damn Sean Penn, Oprah, and Sanders.” After all, they are all millionaires.

The benefits of AI do not accrue solely to billionaires; billions of people worldwide utilize these tools—in medicine, education, and thousands of other fields. If private companies, absent rent-seeking or government handouts, earn profits through innovation and creativity, there is nothing inherently wrong with that. No one is forced to use AI; those who choose to do so effectively vote with their dollars to reward the companies that provide these services. One can only hope that Sanders has not used these tools or maintained an AI account himself—because if he has, he has been lining the pockets of the very capitalists he claims to despise.

The Abuse of a Public Wealth Fund

Politicians can abuse national wealth funds. In Russia, Vladimir Putin has leveraged the National Wealth Fund to bankroll the war in Ukraine. The US state could just as easily exploit such a fund to finance war or violate human rights. In this scenario, revenues generated from AI would be diverted away from vital investments in innovation and instead channeled into the production of bombs to be dropped on innocent people.

Conclusion

Regrettably, politicians from both major American parties seem determined to undermine the free market and the values of classical liberalism. From Trump’s foolish tariffs to Sanders’s socialist and demagogic policies, both are actively eroding the foundations of economic freedom.

Americans should not feel compelled to choose between economic nationalism and socialism, just as they were never truly forced to choose between fascism and socialism in the twentieth century. There is only one path worth pursuing: the defense of libertarian values.

The real solution to improving living standards lies in the state’s complete withdrawal from all economic and social spheres. Unless the American public shifts its focus toward the ideals of classical liberalism or libertarianism, we will continue to witness a cycle of populism from both parties, as well as state obstruction of growth and innovation.

Russia, whose refining capacity has come under significant strain in recent months, has started seaborne imports of gasoline from India (the same country it exports millions of barrels of oil to), Reuters reported citing industry ​sources, in an effort to mitigate fuel shortages triggered by ‌Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Fuel shortages are being felt across Russia’s 11 time zones with rationing, long queues at filling stations and a record gasoline price increase, as a result of relentless Ukraine strikes on the country’s refineries. 

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said that Russia was in contact with ​other countries and discussing imports of fuel at acceptable prices.

An industry source said ⁠at least 60,000 metric tons of gasoline have been dispatched from India to Russia. Another ​source said that two tankers, with parcels of 30,000 to 40,000 tons each, have been sent. A third ​source said that in total, Russia plans to import 400,000 tons of gasoline from various countries each month, including from neighboring Belarus, which has already been exporting fuel to Russia.

Gasoline consumption in Russia is at least 110,000 ​tons per day in summer, when demand for fuel is high.

It was not immediately clear which ​Indian refiner will be supplying gasoline to Russia.

President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on Sunday at a meeting with government ministers and other ‌officials ⁠that Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries had triggered fuel shortages in some regions, but said that Russia was dealing with them. 

Elsewhere, Belarus almost tripled gasoline rail supplies to Russia to more than 70,000 tons in the first half of June versus the first half of May, according to Reuters ​calculations and sources.

Russia’s parliament approved amendments ​to its tax ⁠code last week aimed at tackling the fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone attacks, while also offering subsidies on fuel imports, pegged to Indian ​delivery costs and prices.

If Russia is the world’s gas station, then India is rapidly emerging as the world’s refiner: in what is emerging as a giant processing round trip, India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged to a record ​high in ⁠June, ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler showed, as refiners snapped up Russian barrels to mitigate the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on other sources of supply.

Russian oil accounted for more ⁠than half ​of India’s overall imports in June, up from 36.5% ​in May, the Kpler data showed.

And now India is selling back the refined product back to Russia. 

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, received about 2.70 million barrels per day of oil ​from Russia in June, preliminary data from Kpler and LSEG showed.

Authored by Alastair Crooke

The de-escalation framework that unfolded in the US-Iran Lucerne talks largely stayed true to the original Iranian 10-point plan. Meanwhile, President Trump and Vice-President Vance deliberately muddy the waters, claiming that Iran has already agreed to IAEA inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities (a claim repeatedly denied by Iran): Vance announced that the IAEA could have begun inspections this week. No – – the “Framework” only refers to the possible IAEA supervision of the dilution to the 60% enriched stockpile subject to a final agreement with the US having been reached.

Trump, writing on social media, later falsely asserted: “Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future.” In fact, the IAEA are only inspecting the joint Iran-Russia power station in Bushier at Russia’s request, because Russia wants to ensure compliance on its involvement. In other words, it is a Russian request to satisfy its own IAEA compliance commitment.

Trump then warned Iran that he may have to “finish the job [militarily]” — (if he doesn’t get a very good deal) — which, he says, would take “ about a week,” and adds that Iran will be required to use any unfrozen Iranian funds to be held in ESCROW accounts (accounts controlled by the US) to buy “corn and soybeans for their people, because right now their people are very hungry — and they’re buying exclusively from us.”

So, it’s pretty clear what’s ahead — Trump is reverting to his New York real-estate mode of negotiations. In the Art of the Deal, his 1987 book, ghost written by Tony Schwartz, the text advises the use of “extreme and unpredictable demands to create anxiety and force concessions from rivals.”

Thus, we are back to the General Kellogg playbook — Kellogg advised Trump that the only thing that works with Putin or the Iranians is pressure — and then still more pressure.

Familiar Trumpian tactics. Show a little initial flexibility to tease out adversaries in order to pull them into negotiations; subsequent false claims of Iranian concessions and extreme demands are then used to increase pressure on Iran (whilst Trump appears tough to the angry neocon constituency and to his “base” back home).

This style of pressure may work for New York real-estate deals, but will be ineffective with both Iran and Russia.

Such threats will be counterproductive with Iran, and place the US on a collision course. “The Islamabad understanding was not the result of pressure and coercion, but rather the result of the resistance and authority of the Iranian nation,” Mr Qalibaf, the chief Iranian negotiator, retorted.

In practical terms, as Will Schryver, a shrewd observer of the US military, notes, Iran has pressure points “more numerous and capable than the US can bring to bear on the battlefield” —

“In my view, [Schryver says], a powerful US military presence in the Persian Gulf region has become utterly untenable. They’re just trying to save face now. I do not believe, [he concludes] the US military can mount even a 72-hour high-intensity operation at this point in time.”

“But I think they’ll try. Probably just Trump bluff, but it would not surprise me if they try to play one last card to gain the upper hand.” (Maybe after the midterms, and with the US having rebuilt somewhat its munitions shortfall).

To which Iran likely will respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, and attacking, pari passu, regional (Gulf) infrastructure. Trump will be gaming the economy who first plays “Chicken.” A further military venture likely will only further erode American military standing.

Quite possibly, however, Trump may be prepared to cut his losses in Iran — the war anyway is a liability to his Midterm electoral calculus — by circling back to Ukraine and Russia. The Kiev Independent released a report yesterday, quoting a “senior Ukrainian official saying that Trump had privately given Zelensky the greenlight to act ‘more boldly’ against Russia.”

Here we go again, roundabout time — “Trump says he doesn’t really believe Putin will do anything without pressure,” the Ukrainian official added.

Simplicius speculates:

Trump has clearly been frustrated by his inability to settle any of the conflicts he had promised easily. And recently, on the heels of the Iranian memorandum saga, he even admitted that he would now be “turning his attention” back to Ukraine.

As such, it’s plausible that Trump would have given secret encouragement to the Europeans to ‘shape the battlefield’ in order to ‘soften’ Russia up ahead of whatever next Trump might have planned.

If this is true (and it probably is), the Europeans are playing with matches and risk lighting a conflagration. The E3 leaders, Starmer, Merz and Macron, met on 7 June with Zelensky to promise both unwavering support and — in the context of pledging further pressure on Russia —

…underlining the urgent need to scale up the production of interceptors; deep strike capabilities and anti-ballistic missile co-development — and further to support the future sustainability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In short, the Europeans intend to ratchet up deep strikes into Moscow and St Petersburg, which will likely kill and unsettle their inhabitants.

The E3 carefully planned how to stage-manage the upcoming G7 summit, the EU summit, with Zelensky showcased at both events, promising to increase the pressure on “President Putin to agree to an immediate and complete ceasefire, taking the current contact line for its start-point.” European leaders also pledged to co-ordinate ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara (7-8 July) to achieve increased pledges of military support for Ukraine.

The E3 states are explicitly gearing up with new missiles to strike deeper, and more destructively, into Russia. The British government, for example, has announced that —

…the UK project to develop low-cost advanced long-range strike weapons for Ukraine has reached a significant milestone, with three British-designed systems successfully flight tested. The ground-launched strike weapons reportedly are capable of hitting targets more than 500km distant, at a speed of 600 km/h – whilst carrying a 225 kg warhead.

According to the Financial Times, Trump was “hugely impressed and enthusiastic” with Ukraine’s recent campaign of long-range strikes on targets deep inside Russia at last week’s G7 summit. At the summit, Trump also agreed to increase sanctions on Russian energy.

It is clear that the E3 had been plotting a major psy-op to convince Trump that Ukraine was not on the back-foot against Russia (as Trump may have been briefed); but rather had regained the front foot, and that the US should support the European agenda to force a Russian capitulation agenda (ceasefire, borders unchanged, reparations paid by Russia and war-crimes trials for Russian officials indicted with crimes, etc).

BREAKING AND UNUSUAL

It appears STRATEGIC matters will be discussed, as six red folders were seen during Putin’s meeting with members of the Security Council. pic.twitter.com/UFqMhzQFmw

— RussiaNews 🇷🇺 (@mog_russEN) July 1, 2026

These developments have brought two major developments out of Russia…

Firstly, senior Kremlin aides, notably Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s spokesman, have been saying over the past three days the “spirt” of the Anchorage summit, and its concomitant understandings, “have effectively collapsed” — “The US abandoned them.” Moscow no longer expects those commitments to be honoured and is focused solely on securing its own “victory” through military means.

Foreign Minister Lavrov went further, describing the Alaska meeting as an American “ploy” designed to buy time for Ukraine to rebuild and rearm its military — essentially likening them to the Minsk Accords that similarly were mounted as a deceit.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said:

We also see Washington’s line moving closer to the most rabid anti-Russian policies pursued by the US’s closest European allies – namely, the UK and France.

This represents a huge strategic shift. Russia no longer seeks a relationship with Washington, though contact with DC will continue.

The second development stems from President Putin’s address at the St George’s Hall to military cadets on June 23. Putin, in summary, told the young officers that the West manufactures a Russia threat, then accuses Russia of creating that very threat. This, said Putin, is a historically repeated pattern going back to 1941.

Putin implied that a threshold had now been crossed: He stated that whilst, until recently, NATO countries had limited themselves to supporting the Kiev regime to wage war on Russia, the West today is openly talking about preparing for a war against Russia, and is building up their military offensive budgets. German Chancellor Mertz has been quite vocal in this regard, Putin said.

Russia’s response, he said, is focused on modernizing its nuclear triad and its Army, and strengthening the combat capability of the Aerospace Forces and the Navy. The explicit mention of the nuclear triad in direct proximity to the discussion of Western preparation for war against Russia was certainly a pointed message to Trump and the Europeans.

Russia has heard the European clamor for war. It has now made the strategic decision in response to prepare for war in Europe.

South Korea’s won weakened for a fourth day as overseas investors accelerated their relentless sales of local stocks.

In response, USD/KRW rose 0.1% to 1,552.60, extending its four-day gain to 1.2% (i.e. KRW drop).

According to Barclays, pressure from both resident outflows and more recently in the case of Korea, heavy foreign outflows, could pose further headwinds even as exports performance remains robust and domestic equities extend their bubble. 

Let’s take a closer look at what’s driving the key moves in Korea.

Why was USDKRW higher?

Other than stronger USD, Goldman has been highlighting that rebalancing related equity outflow has been the dominating factor. Equity outflow from Jun 22nd till month-end amounted to US$18bn, bringing total Jun equity outflow to US$30bn. This follows the US$27bn outflow observed in May. As of today, Samsung and Hynix are 32% and 30% of MSCI Korea respectively, which are 7% and 5% above the 25% single stock limit. A combined 12% rebalancing effort would lead to another US$24bn outflow with US$200bn AUM (passive and active) estimated tracking MSCI Korea.

Additionally, other portfolio concentration limits such as UCITS and HF internal concentration limit rule are also likely to be driving the rebalancing related outflows. In terms of timing, some fast money rebalancing is relatively real time, while many real money and passive investors may rebalance at quarter-ends which led to more concentrated outflows.

FX hedging need by foreign investors drove RHS USDKRW demand. Goldman estimates average foreigners’ FX hedging ratio for Korean equities to be 10-15%, and the hedging mainly happens in offshore NDF market. As of March-end, foreigners’ exposure to Korean equities was US$1tn. Due to the 68% expansion in market cap in KOSPI in Q2, the associated FX hedging need rose by an estimate of US$68-US$102bn (US$1000*68%* 10-15%) during the quarter. This has led to sharp increase in RHS NDF hedging demand, some of which concentrated at quarter end as well. 

Other than above-mentioned hedging dynamics, FX hedging demand by USD-denominated total return swaps with leveraged equity underlying provided to offshore clients by local security houses via intermediaries also likely added to FX hedging demand in NDF market, especially as equity marketcap expanded quickly in Q2.  

Why did liquidity tighten?

• Sharp rise in borrowing by securities firm was likely the main driver behind tighter onshore liquidity. Surge in onshore retail margin trading and leveraged single-stock ETFs caused sharp rise in funding needs of local securities firms. In particular, with leveraged ETF, the need to post futures margin for hedging positions for securities firms drove the borrowing demand.

• Local news reported securities firms’ commercial paper and short-term bonds issuances exceeded KRW100tn each month and accounted for 80% of short-term bond issuance in recent months.

• Decline of collateral value for securities firms facing offshore counterparties worsens the liquidity situation. When local securities firms face offshore intermediaries on total return swaps, they not only have rising needs to post margins from underlying stock advance, but also from declining collateral value as KRW FX depreciated and KTB sold off. These dynamics further increased securities firms’ margin requirement in KRW terms, which in turn added to their local borrowing demand. Similar situation happened in late 2022 with KRW and KTB sold off sharply at the same time during BOK hiking cycle. Looking forward, local news reports Samsung securities plans KRW600tn short-term issuance in Jul, indicating such liquidity tightness is unlikely to ease. 
• Forthcoming BOK hike (starting in Jul per GIR base case) likely also added to the expectation of higher funding costs ahead.
• Goldman has observed widening of spread between NDF curve offshore and onshore FX swap. This could be a result of unwinding onshore-offshore arbitrage positions as RHS hedging demand caused sharp surge in NDF points. 

 
Looking ahead, if Korean equity continues to charge higher in a volatile fashion, combined with likely BOK hikes, Goldman thinks such liquidity environment is likely to stay or tighten further. Thus NDF points are likely to stay elevated and the bank prefers pay on dip. In a strong USD environment, KRW FX pressure is unlikely to ease from external forces, which does not help NDF points to fall either. On the other hand, if Korean equities fall meaningfully, NDF points may retrace, as smaller notional exposure to Korean equities by foreigners (either direct or leveraged) would reduce the associated FX hedging.

On FX spot, it is much harder to see sustained equity inflow in the short term: If Samsung/Hynix continue to lead KOSPI higher, equity rebalancing related outflow would further dominate; if equities fall, broad-based outflow is likely to follow which is likely to offset the positive FX impact from unwind of RHS hedging. Only when equities fall substantially so that Samsung & Hynix’s market cap fall under the concentration limits, a recovery from there may attract inflows.

Thus equity outflow may continue to weigh on KRW in the near future.

As market unwinds debasement trades and USD remains resilient, Goldman expects USDKRW may further rise gradually, with authorities’ various smoothing efforts help to limit the speed of KRW depreciation. Although Korean exporter USD selling is expected to rise as export grows organically and domestic capex expands, given current exporter conversion is already relatively high, Goldman expects large and volatile equity related flows to remain dominant for USDKRW path ahead. 

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Tuesday moved to end the more than 50-year ban on civilian supersonic flights over the continental United States, proposing rules that would allow aircraft to exceed the speed of sound provided they don’t produce a sonic boom.

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced on June 30 that the FAA has issued a notice of proposed rulemaking that would replace the more than 50-year-old prohibition on overland civil supersonic flight with a regulatory framework focused on limiting noise rather than speed.

As Tom Ozimek reports for The Epoch Times, the proposal marks a key step in implementing President Donald Trump’s executive order signed last month directing the FAA to repeal regulations that the administration says have unnecessarily constrained U.S. aerospace innovation.

“For more than 50 years, outdated and overly restrictive regulations have grounded the promise of supersonic flight over land, stifling American ingenuity, weakening our global competitiveness, and ceding leadership to foreign adversaries,” Trump said in the order.

If finalized, the rule would clear the way for what the DOT described as a new generation of commercial supersonic aircraft capable of dramatically reducing travel times while minimizing the noise impacts that led regulators to ban such flights in the early 1970s.

“Restoring supersonic flight over land isn’t just about speed, it’s about unleashing American innovation and ushering in a Golden Age of Travel,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a statement.

Current regulations prohibit civilian aircraft from flying faster than Mach 1 over U.S. land except under special flight authorizations for research and testing in isolated test areas.

The FAA aims to finalize the rule by mid-2027.

Shift From Speed Limits to Noise Limits

Under the proposed rule, that blanket speed restriction would be replaced with a noise-based operating standard.

Aircraft operators would instead have to prove through FAA-approved measurement, modeling, or other methods that their aircraft can prevent excess levels of sonic boom overpressure at the ground.

By adopting a performance-based regulatory framework, the proposal would usher in what the FAA described as a clear pathway for “safe, efficient, and commercially viable operation of civil supersonic aircraft in the United States.”

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said that innovative technologies have made it possible for the agency to rethink regulations adopted decades ago.

“Advances in aerospace engineering, materials science, noise reduction, and new operational concepts will eliminate the old sonic boom,” Bedford said in a statement. “This means we can ultimately repeal the ban from the 1970s on supersonic flight over U.S. territory while minimizing noise impacts to residents in communities along the route and near airports.”

Tuesday’s proposal follows Trump’s executive order directing the FAA to repeal the overland supersonic flight ban within 180 days and establish interim noise-based certification standards before developing permanent regulations.

The proposal will be open for public comment for 45 days after publication in the Federal Register.

The Transportation Department said that, in addition to this first proposed rule, the FAA plans to put forward another one later this year that would establish landing and takeoff noise standards for supersonic aircraft.

“We are working at lightning speed to safely enable the next quantum leap in aviation technology and deliver an exciting new way to fly to the American flying public,” Duffy said in a statement.

The FAA cited Boom Supersonic’s February 2025 XB-1 test flight and NASA’s Farfield Investigation of No-boom Thresholds (FaINT) research as evidence that advances in technology have made a blanket ban on overland civilian supersonic flight obsolete.

Boom Supersonic founder and CEO Blake Scholl welcomed Tuesday’s announcement, saying in a post on X that “legalizing supersonic flight is a great way to celebrate America’s 250!”

“Boomless supersonic flight is technically feasible,” he said.