House Defies Trump By Advancing $8BN New Ukraine Aid Package
Late Wednesday saw President Trump receive a rare and much belated rebuke from the House of Representatives as it voted to pass a war powers resolution related to Iran. The passed resolution directs the withdrawal of US troops from armed hostilities with Iran, in a closely divided 215–208 vote, aided by four Republicans.
But this wasn’t the only Trump-defying vote that took place Wednesday, as The Hill reports: “Six Republicans joined Democrats on Wednesday to push through a vote on military aid for Ukraine, a blow to President Trump’s handling of Russia’s war against the country and his withdrawal of U.S. support for Kyiv.”
“The House voted 218-204 in a procedural motion that clears the way for a vote on the Ukraine Support Act, authored by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee,” the report adds.
So interestingly, and in a bit of a blaring contradiction, the House has shown itself to be dovish on the Iran war but hawkish on Russia-Ukraine.
Or rather, they are ‘pro’ Ukraine war but ‘anti’ Iran war, strangely enough.
“This vote is not a process vote, it’s a statement on whether this Congress and all of its members stand with and support Ukraine and the people of Ukraine, and its fight for freedom, its fight for democracy, and its fight for liberty,” Meeks said on the floor after the vote.
There was no mention of using this massive funding for diplomacy, and to get Ukrainian and Russian negotiators back to the table:
It provides $8 billion in military financing loans to Ukraine, extends the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) through 2027, which allows for the U.S. to send Ukraine weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles, additional sanctions against Russia, among other provisions.
Instead, there was the usual simplistic black-and-white moral posturing in a Bush-style “with us or against us” kind of way. “It’s between Ukraine or Putin, I choose Ukraine,” Republican Rep. Joe Wilson stated.
Late last month Ukraine and Russia moved on from a brief ceasefire and resumed blasting each other. Russia has continued to make gradual progress in taking control of both the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts which together comprise the Donbas region. Moscow is insisting that Ukraine’s ceding of the last parts of the Donbas is a precondition to resumed peace talks.
Not accounting for more billions in taxpayer dollars thrown into the Ukraine war — to say nothing of the money pit that is the US-Israeli war on Iran — the US government was in February projected to post a fiscal-year 2026 deficit of $1.9 trillion. Not that anyone in Washington cares.
Officers from the force that failed Henry Nowak have now admitted they felt “controlled and pressured to feel certain ways” after mandatory DEI sessions that hammered home ‘white privileged’ and unconscious bias.
The trainer outsourced to deliver the course was described as “deeply hateful of white people and British culture.” Serving and former Hampshire officers told former Home Secretary Suella Braverman they were furious but stayed silent out of fear for their careers.
Multiple officers from Hampshire Constabulary have now gone on record about the ideological pressure inside the force.
Several serving and former Hampshire Police Officers have told me that ‘we had it drummed into us about our white privilege and unconscious bias’.
Training was outsourced to a third party company and the trainer ‘was deeply hateful of white people and our culture.’
– Suella Braverman (@SuellaBraverman) June 3, 2026
They described how DEI modules on white privilege, unconscious bias, and the importance of being an “ally” were drilled into them.
‘Do we think the training that those officers were forced to do might have ultimately contributed to Henry’s terrible final moments? because I do.’ @PatrickChristys unveils a plethora of diversity and inclusion guides applied within Hampshire & Isle of Wight Constabulary. pic.twitter.com/jRe1K31224
Back in April 2025, we detailed how UK police forces were already forcing officers into training explicitly designed to make them accept their “white privilege.”
Thames Valley Police rolled out mandatory equity training covering white privilege, micro-aggressions, and the push from “non-racist” to “anti-racist.” An independent review led by former assistant chief constable Kerrin Wilson found the sessions created deep divisions.
White officers expressed strong frustration and felt disadvantaged, while some minority officers said the training was harmful to real diversity efforts and would deter them from seeking promotion.
Former government advisor and ex-police officer Rory Geoghegan warned that crude categorisation by skin colour and critical race theory ideology had no place in an impartial police service.
The Hampshire police chief has publicly denied any anti-white bias or two-tier system. Yet the bodycam evidence and these officer admissions tell a different story.
Hampshire Police Chief denies police are “anti-white” after officers handcuffed and arrested Henry Nowak after he was stabbed and falsely accused of ‘racism.’
“Do we have a two-tier type policing system? I would refute that. I would say absolutely not!” pic.twitter.com/GIx1La0ZJ7
An ex-cop who reviewed the footage called the response “unfathomable,” rejecting excuses about fast-moving situations or complexity. Basic procedure requires treating a victim who says he has been stabbed and cannot breathe as a medical emergency first – not as a potential racist offender based on the word of the man who stabbed him.
Yet, the police watchdog investigated the officers’ conduct and concluded there was no wrongdoing.
This is the same pattern seen in other high-profile failures: institutions investigate themselves, apply their own captured standards, and declare everything acceptable.
The public saw the footage. Henry Nowak’s family saw their son die after being treated as the problem rather than the victim. The watchdog saw no issue.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has defended religious exemptions that allow Sikhs to carry large ceremonial knives in public. At the same time, British women face prosecution for carrying ordinary pepper spray for self-defense on the streets at night.
BREAKING:
Keir Starmer says he won’t remove the exemption which allows Sikhs to carry large ceremonial knives on them.
Meanwhile, English women are being prosecuted for carrying regular pepper spray on them when out on the streets at night pic.twitter.com/d8PF2NkdSL
Religious or cultural exemptions shield other groups from the same strict weapons laws. Henry Nowak’s case shows what happens when the system already views native Britons through a lens of presumed guilt or lesser priority.
Henry Nowak was not a threat. He was a student who had been stabbed and was dying in front of officers trained to see race first and humanity second. The attacker walked away with different treatment. The victim’s pleas were secondary to a racism narrative pushed by the perpetrator’s side.
This is the predictable result of years of ideological capture inside policing – training that reframes basic law enforcement as potential oppression when the victim is white and British.
Officers who spoke out did so at personal risk. The watchdog protected the system. Starmer protects exemptions for some while ordinary citizens, especially women, are left defenseless under the same rules.
Britain’s police were once expected to protect the public without fear or favor. When training teaches officers to weigh skin color and ideology before acting on a dying man’s words, the institution has already failed its core purpose. Henry Nowak paid the price. The admissions now emerging confirm what the footage always showed.
The pushback against this capture is growing. Exposing the training, the excuses, and the double standards is the first step toward restoring policing that serves the entire country rather than imported ideologies. Native Britons deserve equal protection under the law – not to be treated as somehow ‘privileged’ while they bleed to death.
Ford May Sales Plunge -13.6%, But UBS Says 2026 Remains On Track
Ford reported U.S. sales of 190,828 units in May, down 13.6% year over year, bringing year-to-date sales to 826,810 units, down 11%. The declines were broad-based, reflecting ongoing weakness in EV demand and continued portfolio shifts away from certain lower-margin vehicles. EV sales fell nearly 44% during the month, while hybrid sales declined 16%.
Among key nameplates, Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning both posted declines of roughly 45%, while Escape sales fell more than 80% as Ford continues to de-emphasize the model. Offsetting some of the weakness, Bronco, Explorer, Maverick, Transit and Heavy Trucks all delivered year-over-year growth.
The sales results generally appeared consistent with management commentary at the UBS Autos and Auto Tech Conference, where Ford indicated that industry demand trends in May unfolded largely as expected. Executives specifically noted that some of the volume declines associated with products such as Escape were anticipated as the company continues shifting its mix toward higher-margin vehicles.
More importantly, management reiterated that 2026 is tracking in line with expectations outlined during first-quarter earnings. A key focus remains the recovery from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption, which is expected to result in $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion of incremental costs this year. Ford incurred approximately $300 million of those costs during the first quarter and expects the impact to increase during the second and third quarters before easing as Novelis returns to full capacity in the fourth quarter. According to management, the recovery remains largely on track despite some expected unevenness along the way.
The company also remains comfortable absorbing an estimated $2 billion year-over-year commodity headwind, which is fully incorporated into Ford’s $8.5 billion to $10 billion adjusted EBIT guidance. Management additionally pointed to stable pricing conditions, suggesting that recent industry concerns about demand deterioration have yet to materially impact Ford’s business.
Looking beyond 2026, Ford outlined several potential earnings drivers for 2027. The most obvious benefit will be the absence of the Novelis-related costs, but management also highlighted ongoing improvements in warranty performance, material costs and launch expenses as the company moves beyond several major investment cycles. Ford expects these gains to help offset spending associated with future growth initiatives.
Those initiatives continue to center around Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Ford’s next-generation EV architecture, which management increasingly describes as a broader platform opportunity rather than a single vehicle program. The company plans to invest approximately $1 billion across BESS and the Universal Electric Vehicle (UEV) platform this year, with spending accelerating in the second half.
Ford remains particularly enthusiastic about the UEV platform, which is scheduled to launch in 2027. Management believes the architecture can support feature-rich, technology-focused vehicles at price points around $30,000, potentially allowing EVs to compete directly with internal combustion vehicles rather than just other EVs. Prototype vehicles are already being tested in Michigan, and executives continue to emphasize the platform’s scalability and potential for attractive economics as volumes grow.
The BESS opportunity also appears to be gaining importance in Ford’s long-term strategy. Management highlighted progress toward bringing its 20 GWh facility online by the end of 2027 and expressed confidence regarding eligibility for production tax credits and other incentives. Executives suggested that Ford’s licensing arrangement with CATL provides a unique advantage that may be difficult for competitors to replicate, while also noting that the company sees no current issues regarding supply-chain compliance.
Another potential source of upside is Ford’s Super Duty business. Management indicated that the capacity ramp continues to progress well, providing additional optionality should demand remain strong.
Taken together, the UBS discussion reinforced the view that Ford’s investment story is becoming less about monthly sales fluctuations and more about the earnings framework management is building for the latter part of the decade. While May sales remained under pressure, management’s message was largely unchanged: 2026 is unfolding as expected, the Novelis recovery remains on track, and the company continues to position itself around battery storage, next-generation EVs and a structurally more profitable core business heading into 2027.
President Trump on Wednesday downplayed Iranian attacks that targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, saying they may have been “slightly provoked” since the US launched strikes against Iran beforehand.
“There’s a reason for everything, and we hit them pretty hard last night,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office. “Some people would say they were slightly provoked because we took a strong action for a different reason, so they were reciprocating.”
Iran launched the missile and drone attacks after the US bombed a commercial ship attempting to reach Iran and launched strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island.
During the Iranian attack on Kuwait, a passenger terminal at Kuwait’s international airport was hit, and at least one person was killed, and more than 60 were injured. Local officials said the terminal was hit by Iranian drones, which Iran denied, claiming that it was struck by an errant US Patriot missile interceptor.
Kuwait’s aviation authority later released a video of the strike that appeared to show a drone striking the terminal.
“An additional wave of Iranian drones attempting to attack US forces in Kuwait failed to impact intended targets tonight. US Central Command air defenses successfully downed multiple drones and ensured no American personnel or assets were harmed,” CENTCOM said.
Trump on Iran attacking Kuwait:
There is a reason for everything, and we hit them pretty hard… They were slightly provoked; they were reciprocating. pic.twitter.com/VvIgyJHb3m
Despite the casualties at the Kuwait airport, Trump said the Iranian attacks were “not a big deal” and that the US “nipped it in the bud very quickly.” When asked if the ceasefire was still in place, he said, “In that part of the world, ‘ceasefire’ is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner.”
Iran’s attacks were its most significant response yet to US violations of the ceasefire, representing a new Iranian strategy to avoid more “tit-for-tat” strikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed on Wednesday that Tehran would continue to have a strong response to any US attacks.
“Our Armed Forces are conducting self-defense strikes on sites the US is permitted to use to attack civilian shipping and violate the ceasefire,” Araghchi wrote on X in a post that included a video of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praising the UAE and Kuwait for being cooperative with US military operations.
Kuwait’s civil aviation authority released surveillance footage it says is an Iranian drone crashing into its international airport on Wednesday.
“Any hostile act will be met with an immediate, decisive response. What sanctions and war failed to achieve won’t be won with more war,” the top Iranian diplomat added.
Jobless Claims Jump As US Tech Firms Announce Most Job Cuts In 2 Years
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time jumped to its highest in three months last week at 225k (215k exp), but this remains well within the range of the last five years…
Source: Bloomberg
The biggest increase in initial claims came from California while Texas saw the biggest decline…
Continuing Jobless Claims dipped to 1.777 million Americans (remaining below the 1.8mm Maginot Line), just above two year lows…
Source: Bloomberg
However, despite the seemingly solid claims data, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that US tech companies in May announced the most job cuts in nearly two years as they ramp up spending on artificial intelligence.
The tech sector said last month it planned to eliminate 38,242 positions, the most since August 2024.
Total private-sector job cut announcements, meanwhile, were down 7% over the past five months versus the same period a year earlier, reinforcing the picture of an ongoing “low-hire, low-fire” environment in most industries.
In May, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts for the third month in a row, with 38,579 announced cuts.
It is the highest monthly total ever recorded for the reason since Challenger began tracking it in 2023, and it accounted for 40% of all cuts announced in May – up from just 7% in January, 25% in March, and 26% in April.
For the year, AI has been cited in 87,714 cuts, or 22% of all 2026 layoffs, already far surpassing the 54,836 attributed to the reason in all of 2025.
“The labor market is being reshaped by technology in real time,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.
“AI is now the leading reason companies give for cutting jobs.”
The figures jibe with recent high-profile, AI-related workforce reduction plans announced by companies including Meta Platforms Inc., Intuit Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. Filings for unemployment insurance, however, haven’t meaningfully increased despite the slew of layoff announcements, which have mostly been targeted at white-collar positions.
On the bright side, through May 2026, U.S. employers have announced 80,472 planned hires, narrowly topping the 79,741 announced at this point in 2025. However, hiring announcements remain historically low by pre-pandemic standards.
Hezbollah Rejects Outcome of Lebanon-Israel Talks: Secretary General
Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem in new speech rejects the Washington-mediated conclusion to direct Lebanon-Israel talks:
Naim Qassem has warned that Israeli areas across the border will remain under threat as long as the Lebanese people and villages come under attack from the Israeli army.
He also rejected attempts to tie the group’s deployment to wider political arrangements, saying the group refuses any link between Hezbollah’s presence and a ceasefire, or Israel’s withdrawal.
Some highlights from Qassem’s address:
‘The revolution in Iran was launched from an Islamic background on the principles of resisting injustice and occupation, and it announced that it is neither Eastern nor Western”
‘The West and America will not accept Iran as a model of righteousness and justice; rather, they want it to be subordinate to their interests and their tyranny.”
‘Thanks to Iran for helping us to regain our land and our right to confront the Israeli-American aggression despite its major confrontations”; describes direct negotiations as “absurd and humiliating” for Lebanon.
As long as Israel is in Lebanon, resistance will continue.
Northern Israel will remain at risk as long as Lebanese villages are being bombed.
“We are only concerned with ending the comprehensive aggression—with a ceasefire and the withdrawal of “Israel””
As long as the occupation exists, the resistance will continue.
“We have not given any commitment to anyone not to resist the aggression and respond to it. And as long as the aggression continues, we will confront it with all the power we have.”
“The main objective must be the withdrawal from Lebanese territories so that the army spreads in the south of the Litani River and the liberation of the detainees”
“We do not accept any link between the existence of the resistance, the cessation of aggression and the withdrawal of “Israel”
Iran’s foreign ministry is also still insisting that the broader US-Iran ceasefire must incorporate Lebanon.
Oil Prices Fall As Trump to Maintain Iran Ceasefire Unless American Troops Are Killed
President Trump in an early Thursday morning Truth Social post has said the United States is “in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War” – while blasting the Republicans who voted the night prior to limit war powers “GRANDSTANDERS” and “unpatriotic”.
Even though Iran is denying that any direct negotiations are taking place, following a big flare-up this week in new tit-for-tat fighting which involved Iran sending more missiles and drones on Gulf states, especially Kuwait, the reference to ‘final negotiations’ was possibly enough to get oil prices to react, with a drop in crude. There was also a report that the White House intends to maintain a ceasefire with Iran unless American troops are killed.
Trump’s new apparent strategy to just wait things out with no new planned military attacks has been featured in The Wall Street Journal as follows:
President Trump has told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills American troops, U.S. officials said, insisting that the weekslong pause in airstrikes remains intact despite a steady stream of violent skirmishes.
The president’s reluctance to reignite the war suggests he might be willing to withstand smaller flare-ups for weeks—or even months—to avoid a broader conflict in the Middle East.
And Rubio appeared to second this in fielding questions about this week’s violence:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the tit-for-tat attacks as purely defensive in nature and not a renewed outbreak of full-scale war.
“They are happening in response to an Iranian action,” Rubio said in a House hearing Wednesday. “If they don’t shoot at those ships, we don’t shoot, but we have to respond.”
More evidence of Trump’s apparently high tolerance for what he deems a violation of ceasefire:
Trump on Iran:
In that part of the world, a ceasefire is when you are shooting in a more moderate manner. pic.twitter.com/0mLQXf9mW8
As for the House vote, it was seen as a rare direct rebuke of Trump and the fact that this war – which the American public was promised would be a ‘short’ military action of possibly a few ‘days’ or ‘weeks’ – is now approaching 100 days, and the war powers passed 215-208, with the four Republicans joining all Democrats in voting yes being Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Tom Barrett of Michigan and Warren Davidson of Ohio.
Pushing Lebanon Truce Toward Goal Line
In Lebanon, there is some remotely positive news, with Lebanon and Israel saying had agreed to implement a ceasefire during talks in Washington and overseen by the US; however, once again the deal is contingent on Hezbollah agreeing to the ceasefire.
“That cease-fire is conditional on Hezbollah also stopping fighting, but in theory, the news helps to take out a key sticking point in the U.S.-Iran talks that was holding up a deal. So that’s seen oil prices reverse a run of three [days of] consecutive gains,” Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen stated in a research note.
Trump rages at House’s successful War Powers vote, which could portend a political shake-up going into this Fall’s midterm elections:
Hezbollah boss warns north Israel won’t be safe if Lebanon bombed
Several people have been wounded in an Israeli drone attack on a vehicle after Israel and Lebanon officials agreed to halt the war during a series of meetings in Washington, DC.
Before the truce announcement, Hezbollah said it launched a “salvo of rockets” at Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon’s Qantara, and fired drones at troops near the strategic Beaufort Castle.
The US House of Representatives passed a resolution to rein in President Donald Trump’s powers to attack Iran without congressional authorisation in a vote of 215 to 208.
Overnight Israeli air strikes on an apartment block in Gaza City killed at least nine Palestinians with four children among the dead.
Iran’s foreign policy a ‘consensus’ process but supreme leader gets final say
Constellation Energy’s plans to restart the Crane nuclear power plant – formerly, and better known as Three Mile Island Unit 1 – were boosted Monday when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a waiver for the company from PJM Interconnection rules. FERC approved Constellation’s waiver request over the objections of PJM’s independent market monitor.
Under the decision, Constellation will be able to transfer 760 MW of Capacity Interconnection Rights, or CIRs, from its Eddystone power plant near Philadelphia to the Crane unit. The transfer will increase the amount of electricity the nuclear unit can deliver to the grid.
Under the DOE’s orders, the Eddystone units are not considered capacity resources, making their CIRs free to be transferred, according to Baltimore-based Constellation.
Constellation’s $1.6 billion plan to restart the 835-MW Crane nuclear unit hit a snag when PJM determined that transmission upgrades were needed to safely deliver all the unit’s power to the grid.
Those upgrades — including 765-kV and 500-kV projects — aren’t expected to be finished until December 2030 and could be delayed even longer, preventing full deliveries from the nuclear unit, which could restart in the second half of 2027, Constellation said in its March 31 waiver request at FERC.
Constellation’s request met FERC’s criteria for granting waivers, including that it solves a concrete problem, according to the agency.
“The requested waiver will allow for the transfer of CIRs between the Eddystone units and Crane, which may reduce or eliminate the number of Contingent Facilities for Crane and thereby potentially increase Crane’s interim deliverability and enable Crane to be fully operational before December 31, 2030,” FERC said.
Also, granting the waiver will not have undesirable consequences, such as harming third parties, FERC said.
“Rather, the requested waiver will provide a more efficient use of CIRs due to the Eddystone units’ current inability to use their CIRs as a result of DOE orders requiring them to operate as energy-only resources,” FERC said.
Constellation has a 20-year deal to sell all the energy, capacity and clean energy attributes from the nuclear unit to Microsoft for data centers across PJM’s Mid-Atlantic and Midwest footprint.
In its waiver request, Constellation said that reaching full deliverability status was especially important for the Crane unit. If run for extended periods below their rated power output, the equipment in nuclear units face risk of elevated vibration and wear, which can pose reliability problems, according to the independent power producer.
Running in parallel, however, has been a more gradual but persistent rise in official sector gold holdings. A common narrative, one which was started largely on this website, is that this shift began with the Russia–Ukraine conflict, when the freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves heightened incentives for countries to diversify into assets such as gold. (Russia, for example, confirmed in 2021 that its gold reserves are fully held domestically.)
While that is true, UBS chief economist Arendy Kapteyn notes that the true turning point in official sector gold demand came well before 2022. The increase in official sector gold holdings began around the global financial crisis in 2008, not in 2022 (roughly 85% of the increase occurred between August 2008 and February 2022, and about 15% since then).
While sanctions risk has clearly accelerated and reinforced the trend – Russia also stepped up purchases after Crimea in 2014 – but it is likely not the root cause. As highlighted in this IMF paper, the GFC led emerging markets to reassess the safety of advanced-economy assets, given stresses in banking systems and sovereign balance sheets, making gold an attractive hedge.
At the same time, rapid reserve accumulation in the 2000s left many countries heavily exposed to a narrow set of “safe” assets, raising both concentration and correlation risks. In addition, post GFC policies (QE and ultra-low yields) sharply reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.
What is perhaps most notable is how concentrated – across a universe of roughly 200 countries – the buying has been. Between 2008 and 2022, just six countries — Russia, China, Turkey, India, Poland, and Kazakhstan — accounted for almost the entire increase in official gold holdings. But since 2022, a slightly different group — China, Poland, India, Iraq, Czechia, and Qatar — has driven essentially all net purchases.
AI robotics company Figure posted several videos on X throughout May showcasing its robots performing basic tasks, including cleaning a room and sorting packages.
Modern artificial intelligence-powered robots are impressive in their capabilities, but are still years away from replacing humans as they can’t yet adapt to changing conditions, researchers say.
Last month, AI robotics company Figure showcased its humanoid robots performing basic tasks, such as cleaning a room, but a series of robots working for nine days straight sorting packages sparked conversation about how soon robots could replace jobs.
Welcome to Day 9 of our humanoid livestream: 191 consecutive hours and 238,000 packages.
Oliver Obst, an associate professor of robotics at the Australia based University of New South Wales, told Cointelegraph that repetitive jobs such as physical work in structured environments are currently most at risk of being replaced by robots, while administrative and document-processing tasks could be replaced by AI.
There has been growing concern that AI and robots will replace people in jobs as technology advances. A report in May from workforce consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas found that US companies have laid off an estimated 49,135 people in 2026 due to AI.
However, Obst said that humanoid robots are unlikely to see a mass rollout soon because they don’t appear to be more efficient or less error-prone than current robotic manufacturing methods.
“Even in relatively structured settings, they still face problems with reliability, speed, safety, cost, and recovery from unexpected situations,” he said. “The harder the environment is to control, the harder the robotics problem becomes. Most human jobs involve more variation and more judgment than the package-sorting demonstration.”
“I would not say we are at the point of mass replacement by humanoid robots. We are much closer to the selective automation of some tasks. AI software is moving faster and is already affecting some forms of information work, but physical robots still have a much harder problem to solve.”
In another video in May, a human worker managed to sort more packages compared to a team of Figure’s robots, which swapped out when needing a recharge. Figure CEO Brett Adock said it would be the last time “a human will ever win.”
Congrats to Aime!! He said his left forearm is basically broken. Final scores: F.03: 12,732 packages (2.83 seconds/package) – Aime: 12,924 packages (2.79 seconds/package). This is the last time a human will ever win.
Markus Levin, co-founder of decentralized data network XYO, said AI models and automation software can perform repetitive tasks with far greater consistency and endurance than humans; however, robots still require charging, maintenance and supervision.
A report in September from the International Federation of Robotics found that global demand for factory robots has doubled over the last decade, with warehouses and logistics among the fastest-growing areas of adoption.
“I believe broad human replacement is still likely years away,” Levin added, “Reliability, safety, regulation, infrastructure costs, and trust remain major barriers to full-scale deployment across society. The challenge is no longer simply making machines capable of acting but ensuring they can operate safely and reliably as they take on greater autonomy.”
Dr Francisco Cruz Naranjo, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales with a PhD in robotics, said the efficiency of robots compared to people depends heavily on the activity and the environment.
“Robots are much better at repetitive tasks without the need for constant pauses, as showcased in the Figure livestream. However, in highly dynamic environments, robots still struggle to quickly adapt to changing conditions,” he said.
“Humans, in this case, are much better. This is precisely why robots at the moment are highly efficient in controlled environments, such as factories, but they have not yet succeeded widely in home settings.”
Naranjo said repetitive jobs performed in a less static setting are at risk of being replaced by robots, but it will depend on how quickly research advances and how quickly society adapts in areas like making spaces robot-friendly, which is likely years away.
Robots In Society Could Be Beneficial
Naranjo and Obst said that a mass rollout of robots in the workforce could be of some benefit, such as improving work-life balance, increasing the workforce in areas with shortages, and addressing dangerous environments that are too risky for humans.
“The social question is harder. If robots make dangerous work cheaper in human terms, that can be good. But it can also have unintended consequences. For example, keeping humans out of harm’s way in military operations may save lives, but it could also lower the perceived cost of conflict,” Obst said.
“Hypothetically, if we became very successful at automating almost all work, then society would need to rethink economies that are currently built around individual wages and employment.”
UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia
By now, readers have a clear understanding that the Gulf-driven energy shock is on course to collide with a potential super El Niño weather event, creating what could be a dangerous second-order shock to food supply chains around the world.
The concern is that extreme heat and disrupted rainfall patterns could hit top agricultural growing belts, dent harvest output, and amplify existing supply stress. Even before those weather-driven impacts fully materialize, global food prices are already rising, suggesting that fertilizer and elevated diesel prices are beginning to be transmitted through the broader food supply chain.
Our Tuesday note on Thailand white rice, a regional Asian benchmark, surging 20% in May, the largest monthly increase in data going back to 2008, is another warning signal that the price action in the grain feeding half the world has entered a new upward impulse.
The troubling move in rice prices, including a 15% surge in Chicago rice futures last month, indicates that food-inflation pressures are already materializing. The concern is that these pressures could materially worsen once El Niño-driven weather disruptions begin affecting key growing regions.
UBS analysts led by Leigha Miyata published a note titled “Food Inflation & El Niño Evidence Check,”confirming what we have been tracking for months: the Middle East-driven fertilizer shock is now moving through the global food supply chain just as El Niño risks rise, creating the potential for an inflation surge across Asia later this year into 2027.
Miyata noted that El Niño odds currently stand around 82% for May to June and 96% for December into early 2027, raising the risk of hotter, drier conditions across South and Southeast Asia that could pressure harvests.
Via Miyata …
El Niño likelihood raised to 82%; expect Asia to be hotter and have less rain:
The El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in Dec 2026-Feb 2027, NOAA). Historical patterns show higher temperatures in Indonesia and northern Australia (Figure 1). Temperatures are normally lower in South Korea and Japan, though a “super El Niño” could reverse this, bringing intense heat and rainfall. Precipitation is lower in South and Southeast Asia, posing risks to harvests (Figure 2). Other El Niño impacts include higher power demand, lower supply, and increased disease risk (see p3).
Fertilizer Prices – Urea prices correcting, now +23% since the Iran conflict started:
Though nitrogen supply remains tight, we have seen diverging trends in the last few weeks on the product level. Ammonia pricing has been stable to higher, UAN pricing has been stable, while urea pricing has seen downward corrections, $190/MT (~23%) lower than its peak level in April. Overall the UBS chemicals team see this pointing to the market having moved past peak seasonal tightness, with 2Q likely marking the high point. We believe structurally tight supply from restricted trade flows and constrained production will continue to support the pricing outlook for 2H26/2027 above the cost curve however, and note that physical market flows have yet to improve (full report).
Gov’t measures have been helpful, but inflation is rising across Asia:
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.7 points in April 2026, up 1.6% from March, marking a third consecutive rise but at a slower pace. Gains in vegetable oils, meat, and cereals were partly offset by declines in sugar and dairy. The index was 2.0% higher year-on-year but remained 18.4% below its March 2022 peak. Inflation across all major Asian economies is increasing with the exception of Indonesia and Japan, and corn futures for 2026/2027 are up ~4%/5% since the Iran conflict started. UBS economists explain that inflation was likely lower in many Asian economies due to quick policy-action post Iran conflict, but that inflation will likely rise going forward (full report). In the Philippines, the level of inflation has shot up from 2.3%/3.9% in Feb/Mar to 7.1% in Apr. In Thailand, deflation in Feb/Mar has shifted to 2.9% inflation in April (Figure 5). For Japan, there are no clear signs yet of strong inflationary pressure from Middle East tensions. However, we expect national CPI for May to pick up slightly to 1.5% from 1.4% in April, suggesting April was likely the trough. Food inflation in Japan decelerated from 4.6% YoY in April to 4.1% YoY in May, though on a MoM basis, food inflation rose 0.3% (full report).
Packaging and freight costs are up; El Niño in 2026-27, fertilizer impact in 2027:
Plastic packaging prices in Japan are reported to be up 20 to 30%. This together with transport costs are expected to raise food prices, but this is not yet visible in the data for Japan. If El Niño materializes, we may see drought impact the harvests in Sep 2026- and Apr 2027- in South and Southeast Asia. Higher fertilizer costs may also affect harvests from April 2027 onwards.
UBS views on El Niño impacts
1. Agri-business: Tightening global balances and large speculative shorts mean an El Niño-driven disruption to India’s monsoon could reduce sugar production by ~3–8mn tons YoY and trigger price spikes.
2. Agriculture & Inflation (India): El Niño-driven weak monsoon risks (forecast ~92% of normal rainfall) could lift food inflation, though only ~21% of CPI is directly impacted, limiting first-round effects but raising second-round risks if shocks persist.
3. Health Care (Brazil): El Niño-driven changes in mosquito patterns could increase dengue cases, with prior events (2023/24) coinciding with record infections (~6.6mn cases).
4. Thermal coal / Power demand: A potential “super El Niño” could drive extreme heat across Asia, boosting electricity demand (especially for cooling) and increasing coal demand and imports, tightening seaborne markets.
5. Hydropower / Power supply: El Niño-related rainfall shifts could reduce hydro generation in LatAm and Africa, further supporting demand for thermal coal.
6. Insurance / Reinsurance: El Niño conditions are associated with below-average hurricane activity, which could improve insurers’ near-term book value but pressure pricing due to increased capital supply. In Australia, El Niño years tend to have lower catastrophe losses, though drought and bushfire risks rise.
Figure 6: Real GDP growth %y/y: pre- and post-Iran conflict
Figure 7: Asia’s inflation likely to pick up on base effects
Figure 12: Energy/fertilizer shock impact chain
Figure 13: Thailand and India are likely to be negatively impacted in APAC. All importers, including Japan will face higher prices
