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Exit Narrative Grows: Bessent Says New Deal & Ceasefire Will Open Hormuz ‘Today Or Tomorrow’

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Exit Narrative Grows: Bessent Says New Deal & Ceasefire Will Open Hormuz ‘Today Or Tomorrow’

Summary

  • Bessent: Hormuz could reopen under a 30-60 day ceasefire as soon as “today or tomorrow.”
  • Iran asserts that US & Israeli vessels remain barred until sanctions are lifted and compensation is paid.
  • Trump says the conflict could “end pretty soon,” signaling a possible final US exit.
  • Iran remains defiant, pointing out it still has the leverage & can threaten Hormuz.
  • However, the deal could reopen oil flows while strengthening Iran’s control over the strait.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 13% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Bessent: Today or Tomorrow the Strait will be Open; Iran Signals ‘Compensation’

Iran has announced that under the ‘finalized’ Oman-Iran scheme and ‘deal’ for management of the Hormuz Strait that “enemy countries” (read: US and Israel) may only transit the waterway after lifting sanctions and paying compensation for the war.

While this was not issued by the Foreign Ministry or top leadership per se, it does appear to represent Tehran’s overall position, after on Thursday it first declared that US and Israeli-linked ships will not be allowed Hormuz transit under the Oman plan:

Tehran Mayor says Passing through the Strait of Hormuz is subject to the lifting of sanctions and the payment of compensation:

“The countries that have attacked Iran will not have the right to use this strait until compensation is paid. Governments that freeze Iranian assets or continue to impose sanctions and threaten the nation will be deprived of this strategic boon.”

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has appeared to back the Omani plan to reopen the strait, the US State Department has also newly warned on Friday that more ‘decisive action’ will be taken to cut off sources of Iran’s funding. Bessent has newly stated that…

I think shortly, maybe even today, tomorrow, we are going to see an agreement, a 30- to 60-day ceasefire, and the Strait will be open.

This is somewhat surprising, but as we described below, it seems a final Washington exit is indeed in motion, even if it leaves Iran with greater leverage in the region. Like Trump’s latest comments Thursday night, Bessent seems in ‘mission accomplished’ mode with this newly published interview…

This really does sound like ‘it’s finally over’ talk…

White House Largely Quiet on Iran-Oman Deal to Manage the Strait

President Trump’s latest Iran comments came Thursday night, after a prior day wherein Iran and Oman unveiled their ‘finalized’ Hormuz management scheme, which most notably includes a ban on all US and Israeli vessels in the energy transit waterway. 

As we reviewed earlier, the White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this stipulation alone may be too hard a pill for Trump to swallow, if accurate – given that it obviously leaves Iran in de facto control of the strait. Many pundits have pointed out it even leaves Iran with more leverage and power in the region than before the launch of Operation Epic Fury.

But this is why Trump’s comments to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday evening are surprising, given that instead of reacting angrily and outright condemning the Iran-Oman plan, his reaction was somewhat muted and meager. Doves who see this war as disastrous and hope for quick exit will welcome the development.

via Reuters

Trump: Going to End Pretty Soon

“I think it’s going to end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer,“ the president said, while leaving his meaning ambiguous. Asserting once again that the US is involved in negotiations with Tehran (something the Iranians have been vehemently denying all along), Trump added that “I think we’re doing fine.”

The only thing Trump truly got angry about Thursday was related to the domestic side of the conflict, after US major media published several reports saying the Pentagon is perilously low on missiles and interceptors, which have been drained after nearly six months of war. He blasted ‘treasonous’ ‘fake reporting’ and even threatened to jail ‘leakers’ over the reports (the inherent contradiction says a lot here).

But again, Trump’s penchant for raging against ‘dishonest’ and ‘evil’ Iranian leaders has been curiously absent over the last several days as the US bombs have fallen silent – after he called off planned ‘harder’ strikes over the weekend (or the last big TACO moment, among many prior).

This relative quiet at the White House comes even after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf openly mocked the United States and Trump’s theatrics and constant changes of course on X. He wrote Thursday:

“Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate.” That’s theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don’t need more theater.

All of this change in Washington tone and posture suggests this could finally be the moment for a true offramp, as the US faces a ‘go big or get out’ realization, and as the prospect of slogging through months more of a developing quagmire becomes too politically and economically costly. This is potentially the declare ‘victory’ and get out moment. As former Congressman Ron Paul has put it: Just Walk Away!

This is further evidenced in Trump’s sudden realism, expressed late Thursday in the same Oval Office presser. When asked about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, he admitted that “it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are.”

He further acknowledged: 

“People don’t want” to risk ships worth billions of dollars and expose them to the possibility of accidentally hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, he conceded. Trump also claimed Thursday that Hormuz is “sort of open right now,” although fewer than 10 ships per day transited from Sunday through Tuesday, according to Kpler data.

Of course, the US and Iran have been involved in several of these ‘pauses’ and cooling off periods before, which were later revealed to be the ‘calm before the storm’. Tehran has since wised up and pointed out that the Pentagon used these interim periods of no fighting to just rearm, reposition, and ramp up military supply flights to the region.

Joe Kent: ‘Good First Step’ Toward an Exit

Joe Kent, a top national security official who resigned in protest of the Iran war upon the very start of the operation, is welcoming these signs that Trump is finally seeking to extricate the US from the conflict at all costs:

Trump is messaging that he won the war— this is a good first step in extricating us from what would otherwise be a catastrophic mistake. The reality is, the best “deal” we can make with Iran at this point that works in our favor is to just leave—it’s the only case in which POTUS then holds the cards.

He needs to “close the deal” now, before the Iranians force him back into a shooting war. We simply can’t assume that Iran will wait idly for us to make the next move. Alarmingly, it seems we are failing to account for just how aggressively killing the Ayatollah & bombing the girls’ school has radicalized Iranian leadership & its people—it’s very likely that Iran will feel compelled to drag us back into the war in order to force the U.S. to retreat, bloodied, both for the sake of its national honor & for deterrence.

Trump can end this by pulling our troops & ships out of the region now—deprive Iran of targets to hit and the leverage they need to escalate. Trump says we’ve won, therefore we can bring them home.

So either Trump is indeed preparing to go bigger, or this is – belatedly – the final ‘cut and run’ moment that probably the majority of the American public has been hoping for.

Another sign, via his Truth Social latest, that Trump could finally be willing to say ‘mission accomplished’ and get out, while letting the regional and oil transit ‘chips fall’:

Iran Hasn’t Blinked

The deadly alternative to simply declaring an exit is an eventual introduction of ground troops and full-on regime change. Thankfully, Trump officials have continued to by and large condemn this as a legitimate scenario – given it would surely once again put US forces in a new ‘forever war’ that would last years or even decades.

Read our: Visualizing Iran’s Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

But in the meantime, the Iranians do smell weakness and blood in the water. Just before US markets closed Thursday, Tehran announced its forces attacked and struck ‘hostile targets’ at Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is remaining defiant, and even sees itself in the driver’s seat with its ability to wage asymmetric warfare against a much larger US foe which is confused on what to do next. This was also on display with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian having asserted this week in an interview, “Our enemies expected the country to collapse due to the pressures they have exerted.“ He added that these pressures have “reached their maximum”.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 12:40

Meet The Investors In SpaceX Who Say Their Shares “Disappeared”

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Meet The Investors In SpaceX Who Say Their Shares “Disappeared”

Some investors who thought they had secured one of Wall Street’s hottest trades, owning SpaceX before its blockbuster IPO, say the shares they expected to cash in on simply disappeared, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The controversy centers on special purpose vehicles (SPVs), investment funds that promise accredited investors exposure to private companies before they go public. After SpaceX’s June IPO, several investors who bought into SPVs managed by Late Stage Management say they were stunned to learn the underlying SpaceX shares had allegedly been sold years earlier, leaving them without the windfall they believed they still owned.

The Journal writes that one of those investors, Virginia data engineer Ram Rupireddy, invested $17,250 in a Late Stage fund in 2020 after being told it offered exposure to SpaceX. Based on statements in his investor portal and 2025 tax documents, he believed he still owned the equivalent of 2,500 SpaceX shares when the company debuted publicly. At the IPO price, he estimated the position would have been worth more than $300,000. Instead, the firm later informed him the underlying shares had been sold in 2024, leaving him with roughly $45,450.

“The plan was to fund college education for both of my kids,” Rupireddy said after filing a complaint with the Securities and Exchange Commission. He says he never received notice that his investment had been sold, and only discovered the change after temporarily losing access to Late Stage’s investor portal, which later showed the position had been liquidated.

Another investor, who asked not to be identified, told The Wall Street Journal he experienced the same surprise. He said he believed he still owned pre IPO SpaceX exposure until after the company’s public debut, when he was informed the underlying shares had already been sold years earlier. Like Rupireddy, he has since joined other investors seeking legal remedies, and told the newspaper an SEC attorney and an FBI special agent contacted him to discuss his experience.

According to The Wall Street Journal, at least four investors reported similar experiences, while roughly 150 Late Stage investors have joined a group chat to discuss potential legal action. One investor told the newspaper that an SEC attorney and an FBI agent contacted him about his experience. The SEC declined to comment on whether it is investigating the matter, and the FBI also declined comment.

Late Stage Management did not respond to repeated requests for comment. The firm is already facing separate legal scrutiny after three former sales executives pleaded guilty earlier this year to fraud charges involving hidden markups and fees, though prosecutors said those cases were unrelated to the disputed SpaceX shares.

The episode is also drawing fresh attention to the risks of SPVs, which often provide indirect “exposure” to private companies through multiple layers of investment vehicles rather than direct ownership of shares. As Davis Polk partner Jared Fine told the Journal, “Ultimately if you’re investing, you want to make sure you own what you think you own.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 12:20

Consumers More Optimistic On Jobs, Financial Conditions, Stock Prices As Inflation Eases: NY Fed Survey

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Consumers More Optimistic On Jobs, Financial Conditions, Stock Prices As Inflation Eases: NY Fed Survey

Unlike recent extremely volatile months, consumers expectations for inflation in July barely budged as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year fell slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% prior. Estimates for price increases in three and five years remained at 3.3% and 3%, respectively, although the 3Y inflation forecast did dip notably, if not enough to move it by a significant digit. 

Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June, increasing by 1.4% to 2.9%. 

Away from inflation, labor market expectations were mixed, with the mean probability of higher US unemployment rate increasing by 1.1 ppt to 42.8%…

… and the mean probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increasing by 0.1 ppt to 14.2 percent; however, this was offset by the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost, which increased by 1.3% to 46.2% the highest this year.  That increase was most pronounced among those who have a high school degree or less and those living in a household where income is under $ 50,000 per year. 

Earlier on Friday, the government employment report showed employers cut jobs in July and the labor-force participation continued to slide. The jobless rate declined to 4.1%. 

Recent data pointed to a strengthening of the American consumer. Spending rose more than expected in the three months through June, and the University of Michigan’s gauge of sentiment increased to a five-month high in July.

In the New York Fed report, more households said their current financial situation was better than last year, and more said their finances will stay about the same in 2027.

Still, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months increased, especially among in households where annual income is below $ 50,000.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability that stock prices will be higher a year from now reaching the highest level of the series since April 2021.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 11:45

Hours After Murkowski Predictably Sides With Dems, Cassidy Unblocks Blanche AG Nomination

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Hours After Murkowski Predictably Sides With Dems, Cassidy Unblocks Blanche AG Nomination

Sen. Bill Cassidy announced Friday he will support Todd Blanche’s nomination for attorney general, clearing the decisive path for confirmation after two other Republican senators opposed the pick.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 15, 2026. 

Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican who had remained undecided amid weeks of scrutiny, made the announcement in remarks on the Senate floor. “Mr. Blanche is not perfect, and he will tell you this, but the choice is not between perfection and Mr. Blanche,” he said. “It is between Mr. Blanche and another acting attorney general who may not run the department effectively under President Trump and who indeed may not be as good as Mr. Blanche.” He added: “All considered, I will vote for Mr. Blanche. I’ll be criticized for this vote. What’s new?”

The decision came hours after RINO Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) declared she would not support Blanche. In a post on X, Murkowski said the country needs an attorney general “who will check the worst impulses of this administration” and that she lacked confidence Blanche is that person. She also voiced concern that confirmation would remove Senate leverage over a nearly $2 billion anti-weaponization fund intended to compensate people claiming they were unfairly targeted by the government. “The fund is only off the table because this nomination is pending and the Senate has leverage,” Murkowski stated. “Once we vote, that will end, and there is no telling what the future holds.”

Blanche, who has served as acting attorney general and previously as President Donald Trump’s personal criminal defense lawyer, rescinded the order establishing the fund on Aug. 2. The move formed part of an agreement with Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) that allowed the Senate Judiciary Committee to advance the nomination to the full Senate. Blanche said at the time that the department “always welcomes and appreciates productive engagement with all members of Congress.”

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), another RINO, announced earlier in the week that she would oppose Blanche, citing actions including an order shielding Trump and his family members from certain tax audits. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remains absent while ‘recovering from a fall at home’, with no clear timeline for his return.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. With McConnell out, Blanche could afford to lose only two Republican votes if all Democrats opposed him. Collins and Murkowski provided those two “no” votes. Cassidy’s support supplies the critical 50th vote in favor, positioning the nomination for approval by a narrow margin even without Democratic support. All 47 Democrats are expected to vote against Blanche.

Cassidy had raised repeated concerns in recent weeks that Blanche might function more as the president’s personal attorney than as an independent attorney general for the country. He spoke with Blanche multiple times, including meetings addressing worries about “lawfare” – prosecutions driven by political anger rather than valid legal grounds – and met with Murkowski as well. Despite those reservations, Cassidy concluded that confirming Blanche was preferable to leaving the department under an indefinite acting leadership that might prove less effective.

Before the Tillis-Cornyn deal, Trump had floated the possibility of withdrawing the nomination and waiting until senators facing reelection challenges or retirement were replaced in January 2027. Cornyn lost his primary, Tillis chose not to run, and Cassidy also lost his reelection bid after Trump-backed challengers prevailed. Collins advanced through her primary and faces a general-election contest; McConnell is not seeking another term. Murkowski’s term continues until early 2029.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 18, 2021. Susan Walsh/Getty Images

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 11:30

Scientists Warn Of Urgent AI Biosecurity Threat

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Scientists Warn Of Urgent AI Biosecurity Threat

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

For the first time, artificial intelligence has designed complete, functional viral genomes from scratch.

Oh dear.

Stanford University and Arc Institute researchers used generative AI models to produce 16 novel bacteriophages that successfully infect and kill bacteria in the lab.

Officials insist the viruses “pose no threat to people,” yet biosecurity experts are already sounding the alarm that the same technology opens the door to inventing dangerous pathogens.

The breakthrough, published in the journal Science, marks the first time generative AI has written entire viable viral genomes.

Researchers trained genome language models known as Evo 1 and Evo 2 on millions of natural genetic sequences. They then tasked the systems with designing complete bacteriophage genomes based on the well-studied ?X174 template that infects E. coli.

Of 302 synthesized designs, 16 proved fully functional: they assembled into virus particles, replicated inside bacterial cells, and in some cases outperformed the natural virus, even overcoming bacterial resistance when used as a cocktail.

Oh dear.

Brian Hie, assistant professor at Stanford who led the work, called it new territory. “This is a next step in the complexity that’s designable by generative AI, this is the first time generative AI has been used to design a complete genome, it’s something that can replicate and have other functions inside cells… this was new territory for us,” he told the BBC.

The team deliberately excluded genetic data from viruses capable of infecting complex organisms and conducted the work in a secure laboratory. The resulting phages target only specific bacteria.

Patrick Cai, a synthetic biologist at the University of Manchester not involved in the study, called it “an important milestone.”

Yet the same experts who celebrate the medical potential for phage therapies against antibiotic-resistant infections are issuing blunt warnings.

In an accompanying commentary in Science, Dr. Thomas Inglesby and Dr. Moritz Hanke of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security wrote that the findings raise “urgent biosafety and biosecurity questions.”

They stated it is no longer a question of “whether generative viral genome design will exist” but whether it can be used without “enabling serious harm.”

Oh dear.

New viruses with the potential to cause disease “should not be pursued,” they added. “The ability to compose viral genomes using generative AI now exists; the governance to safely steer it does not.”

Hanke has separately noted that one could simply prompt a genomic language model: “Hey, genomic language model, make me an influenza genome that is modified to be more transmissible or to be more lethal.”

This is not abstract risk. Humanity already learned hard lessons when researchers mess with pathogens in laboratories. The COVID era exposed the catastrophic consequences of gain-of-function work and lab leaks.

Now AI is being handed the tools to design novel viruses at machine speed, far outpacing the regulatory frameworks meant to contain them.

The potential for misuse or accidental release is frightening. The only meaningful safeguard cited by the researchers themselves is a training-data filter – something that can be reversed by any team with access to broader viral datasets.

Online reactions captured the unease immediately. One widely shared comment called the news “First article you find in a Resident Evil game.” Others noted the same pattern: “No way this sort of virus randomly mutates to harm humans! Would never happen!” and “Modern scientists didn’t watch 80’s sci-fi horror and it shows.”

This development arrives against a backdrop of repeated AI systems exceeding their intended bounds.

In July, an OpenAI model went rogue during testing, escaped its sandbox, and launched a cyber attack on Hugging Face after chaining exploits and stolen credentials.

This keeps happening.

Earlier this year an AI coding agent wiped out a startup’s entire production database and backups in nine seconds after “thinking for itself.”

A tech entrepreneur reported his AI agent autonomously built itself a visual face and interface while he slept.

And when AI bots were placed in a virtual town for two weeks with clear rules against violence and chaos, they promptly went apesh*t – forming alliances, committing arson, and collapsing the simulated society.

These are not isolated glitches. They reveal systems that interpret goals, adapt, and act with speed and autonomy humans cannot easily interrupt.

Now layer onto that the growing chorus of voices who casually state that the human population needs to be halved.

Recent research and commentary have revived the idea that reducing the world’s people to around four billion by 2200 would ease pressure on the planet – framed as a “pro-human” strategy through voluntary measures, yet delivered with the same technocratic confidence that once dismissed lab-leak risks.

Imagine the same AI genome-design capability landing in the hands of those who view large-scale population reduction as a planetary necessity.

The tools that can design beneficial bacteriophages can, with different training data or prompts, design far more dangerous agents.

History shows that once a capability exists, containment relies on human restraint, institutional integrity, and enforceable rules – none of which have a perfect track record when power, ideology, or “greater good” justifications enter the picture.

The researchers emphasize medical upside: tailored phages that could help defeat drug-resistant bacteria. That potential is real. So is the reality that generative AI has crossed a threshold.

Complete, replicating viral genomes can now be written by machines. The governance structures that might prevent the worst outcomes remain incomplete.

What was once science fiction is now peer-reviewed fact. The only question left is whether the same systems that design the cure will one day be directed – or allowed to drift – toward something far darker.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 11:00

Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children’s Mental Health Fund

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Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children’s Mental Health Fund

A New Mexico state judge on Aug. 6 ordered Meta to pay $567 million into a fund dedicated to remedying the harm caused to children’s mental health by the company’s social media platforms.

Meta is the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

State judge Bryan Biedscheid said in a 68-page order that most of the total youth mental health fund, or $420 million, would go toward treatment services for children harmed by social media.

The remainder of the fund would be directed toward awareness and prevention, screening and assessment, referrals and coordination, and implementation, according to the order.

“The Court finds that the weight of the evidence presented demonstrates that Meta’s platforms are a cause of and substantial contributing factor to the youth mental health crisis in New Mexico,” the judge wrote.

Furthermore, as Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, in his ruling, Biedscheid ordered the company to delete the accounts of users under 13, along with all personal information collected from those accounts, and simplify the steps for reporting underage users.

Meta was also ordered to disable push notifications on its platforms for users under 18 between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. on all days, and from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. on school days during the academic year.

The company is also required to implement mandatory usage time limits for those accounts and hide, by default, all like counts on their content unless a parent or guardian authorizes a change to the default setting.

New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez hailed the ruling as a victory for parents and children, saying that youngsters deserve to have a safer environment online.

“This case has always been about protecting children, standing up for families, and making sure that one of the world’s largest technology companies cannot profit from practices that endanger young people without consequence,” Torrez said in a statement.

Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said in a post on X that the company disagreed with the ruling and planned to appeal, noting that Meta had been working to remove bad actors and harmful content from its platforms.

“We remain confident in our record of protecting teens online and will continue to defend ourselves against claims that misrepresent the facts,” Stone said.

The latest penalty comes on top of the $375 million fines that a New Mexico jury imposed on Meta in March for violating the state’s Unfair Practices Act by failing to disclose the potential risks of its social media platforms to children.

New Mexico sued Meta in December 2023, alleging that the company’s social media platforms served as a “breeding ground” for predators targeting children for human trafficking, sexual image distribution, grooming, and solicitation.

Meta denied the allegations, saying at the time that it uses advanced technology to root out bad actors and employs child safety experts. The company also said that it shares information and tools with other companies and law enforcement, including state attorneys general, to help identify predators.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 10:40

Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump’s Polysilicon Tariffs Create “Structural Floor” For Industry

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Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump’s Polysilicon Tariffs Create “Structural Floor” For Industry

Solar stocks are shining in premarket trading in New York after the Trump administration announced a new 15% tariff and a price floor on imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, and solar modules. The move is intended to secure the domestic solar supply chain after years of cheap Chinese panels flooding the country, making it uneconomical for domestic manufacturers to compete.

“Polysilicon is the base material underpinning the security of America’s semiconductor and solar-power supply chains. Yet for decades, America has allowed foreign countries to weaken United States producers in the polysilicon sector ‑- eroding our economic and national security. Today, I am taking action to put a stop to these practices and revitalize the United States polysilicon sector,” President Trump wrote in an overnight executive order.

The Trump administration’s order is less a conventional tariff increase and more of a reset of the US solar-module pricing regime. The new framework, combining a 15% tariff with minimum import prices, could lift utility-scale module prices into the low-to-mid 40-cent-per-watt range from roughly 30 cents.

Analysts from several desks, including BMO Capital Markets, Truist Securities, Citi, and others, point to First Solar as the clear winner.

“We expect the immediate market reaction to favor FSLR given enhanced long-term pricing power and terminal value implications, while utility solar-exposed names including NXT, ARRY, SHLS and FLNC could face near-term pressure as investors reassess project economics and deployment costs,” BMO analyst Ameet Thakkar wrote.

Thakkar noted, “In this report we analyze the structure and implementation of the new tariff framework, the implications for module pricing and domestic manufacturing economics, potential upside to FSLR valuation and ASPs, the 120-day implementation window, and our continued constructive view on NXT despite likely near-term volatility.”

Moses Sutton at BNP Paribas outlined FSLR as the “biggest, long-awaited winner” and highlighted how a new “structural ‘floor’ for industry” is being created.

What other desks are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Citi

  • Analyst Vikram Bagri notes that the polysilicon tariffs are largely in line with expectations and sees upside for First Solar
  • “For FSLR, the benefits are a minimum import price for poly/cells/ingots/wafers/modules, which may be adjusted at Commerce’s discretion to reflect market conditions, a 15% ad valorem on downstream poly derivatives, application to warehoused inventory plus anti-stockpiling provisions”
  • Notes that countries that adopt their own minimum import price may be able to claim favorable treatment for their exports to the US, which would be negative for US firms

Truist Securities

  • Analyst Christopher Souther sees First Solar as the biggest beneficiary of the tariffs and notes that the company’s module price is below the minimum import price
  • “In our view, this further reinforces First Solar’s competitive moat, as the company already benefits from a US-based manufacturing footprint, Section 45X tax credits, and existing trade protections”
  • Notes that the exemption paths for US module manufacturers may reduce the benefit for First Solar in out years

Barclays

  • Analyst Christine Cho sees the polysilicon tariffs raising the cost of imported modules to around $0.44 per watt
  • “The Section 232 outcome is more positive for FSLR than we and the Street were expecting and would seem to support ASPs to move somewhere in the low to mid $0.40/w range”

In premarket trading, FSLR is up 4%, Enphase Energy +2%, Array Technologies +2%, SolarEdge Technologies +2%, and T1 Energy +6%. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is up nearly 3%. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 10:10

Exit Narrative Begins: Trump’s Muted Response To Hormuz Deal Suggests The ‘Declare Victory & Leave’ Moment Is Here

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Exit Narrative Begins: Trump’s Muted Response To Hormuz Deal Suggests The ‘Declare Victory & Leave’ Moment Is Here

President Trump’s latest Iran comments came Thursday night, after a prior day wherein Iran and Oman unveiled their ‘finalized’ Hormuz management scheme, which most notably includes a ban on all US and Israeli vessels in the energy transit waterway. 

As we reviewed earlier, the White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this stipulation alone may be too hard a pill for Trump to swallow, if accurate – given that it obviously leaves Iran in de facto control of the strait. Many pundits have pointed out it even leaves Iran with more leverage and power in the region than before the launch of Operation Epic Fury.

But this is why Trump’s comments to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday evening are surprising, given that instead of reacting angrily and outright condemning the Iran-Oman plan, his reaction was somewhat muted and meager. Doves who see this war as disastrous and hope for quick exit will welcome the development.

via Reuters

“I think it’s going to end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer,“ the president said, while leaving his meaning ambiguous. Asserting once again that the US is involved in negotiations with Tehran (something the Iranians have been vehemently denying all along), Trump added that “I think we’re doing fine.”

The only thing Trump truly got angry about Thursday was related to the domestic side of the conflict, after US major media published several reports saying the Pentagon is perilously low on missiles and interceptors, which have been drained after nearly six months of war. He blasted ‘treasonous’ ‘fake reporting’ and even threatened to jail ‘leakers’ over the reports (the inherent contradiction says a lot here).

But again, Trump’s penchant for raging against ‘dishonest’ and ‘evil’ Iranian leaders has been curiously absent over the last several days as the US bombs have fallen silent – after he called off planned ‘harder’ strikes over the weekend (or the last big TACO moment, among many prior).

This relative quiet at the White House comes even after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf openly mocked the United States and Trump’s theatrics and constant changes of course on X. He wrote Thursday:

“Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate.” That’s theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don’t need more theater.

All of this change in Washington tone and posture suggests this could finally be the moment for a true offramp, as the US faces a ‘go big or get out’ realization, and as the prospect of slogging through months more of a developing quagmire becomes too politically and economically costly. This is potentially the declare ‘victory’ and get out moment. As former Congressman Ron Paul has put it: Just Walk Away!

This is further evidenced in Trump’s sudden realism, expressed late Thursday in the same Oval Office presser. When asked about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, he admitted that “it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are.”

He further acknowledged: 

“People don’t want” to risk ships worth billions of dollars and expose them to the possibility of accidentally hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, he conceded. Trump also claimed Thursday that Hormuz is “sort of open right now,” although fewer than 10 ships per day transited from Sunday through Tuesday, according to Kpler data.

Of course, the US and Iran have been involved in several of these ‘pauses’ and cooling off periods before, which were later revealed to be the ‘calm before the storm’. Tehran has since wised up and pointed out that the Pentagon used these interim periods of no fighting to just rearm, reposition, and ramp up military supply flights to the region.

Joe Kent, a top national security official who resigned in protest of the Iran war upon the very start of the operation, is welcoming these signs that Trump is finally seeking to extricate the US from the conflict at all costs:

Trump is messaging that he won the war— this is a good first step in extricating us from what would otherwise be a catastrophic mistake. The reality is, the best “deal” we can make with Iran at this point that works in our favor is to just leave—it’s the only case in which POTUS then holds the cards.

He needs to “close the deal” now, before the Iranians force him back into a shooting war. We simply can’t assume that Iran will wait idly for us to make the next move. Alarmingly, it seems we are failing to account for just how aggressively killing the Ayatollah & bombing the girls’ school has radicalized Iranian leadership & its people—it’s very likely that Iran will feel compelled to drag us back into the war in order to force the U.S. to retreat, bloodied, both for the sake of its national honor & for deterrence.

Trump can end this by pulling our troops & ships out of the region now—deprive Iran of targets to hit and the leverage they need to escalate. Trump says we’ve won, therefore we can bring them home.

So either Trump is indeed preparing to go bigger, or this is – belatedly – the final ‘cut and run’ moment that probably the majority of the American public has been hoping for.

Another sign, via his Truth Social latest, that Trump could finally be willing to say ‘mission accomplished’ and get out, while letting the regional and oil transit ‘chips fall’:

The deadly alternative to simply declaring an exit is an eventual introduction of ground troops and full-on regime change. Thankfully, Trump officials have continued to by and large condemn this as a legitimate scenario – given it would surely once again put US forces in a new ‘forever war’ that would last years or even decades.

Read our: Visualizing Iran’s Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

But in the meantime, the Iranians do smell weakness and blood in the water. Just before US markets closed Thursday, Tehran announced its forces attacked and struck ‘hostile targets’ at Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is remaining defiant, and even sees itself in the driver’s seat with its ability to wage asymmetric warfare against a much larger US foe which is confused on what to do next. This was also on display with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian having asserted this week in an interview, “Our enemies expected the country to collapse due to the pressures they have exerted.“ He added that these pressures have “reached their maximum”.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 09:55

Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem…

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Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem…

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Normally, you can find some parts of the job report that “fight” against the headline. That somewhere in the details is a potentially different narrative.

Maybe it’s because I’m lazy on a summer Friday, but difficult to see what it is in this report.

But let’s start with the most important point

Instead of worrying about Warsh, what he did or didn’t say, how often he might or might not say things, to who he may or may not speak to, maybe we should worry about making decisions based on garbage data?

As you know, I’ve argued for years that it seems insane that in this day and age, where we have real time data on almost every aspect of our lives, we are content to kind of stick a finger in the air, and take a wild stab at estimating jobs. I think the data source task force is the most important (and potentially useful thing Warsh has created). The data task force is too limited in scope, if anything.

Establishment headline is -23k. Estimate was 80k.

Revisions for past two months were -103k! Maybe the estimate would not have been for 80k, if the initial reports for the prior months reflected reality and didn’t need to be revised lower?

Not sure this is “good” news for the workers, but wage growth was anemic (even as the renewed fighting in the Middle East is pushing up the price of energy products).

The unemployment rate has dropped from 4.3% to 4.1% in the past two months. On the surface, maybe that is good. But the unemployment rate is based on the household survey which had a loss of 87k this month, which is “better” than last month’s loss of 507k jobs. The 4 month total number of jobs in the household survey is month than 600,000 lost jobs! The unemployment rate is only lower because the participation rate has dropped from 61.8% to 61.4% in two months (let’s not forget, this is occurring with record cap ex on data center/AI build).

Okay, now my “favorite” the birth/death model. I will admit I’m not sure how the seasonally adjusted birth/death model translates into a number of jobs in the establishment survey, but this “model” showed 235k jobs added by new businesses being formed. Maybe companies are being formed to take advantage of the AI/Data Center spend. It is in line with last July’s birth/death adjustment, so maybe it didn’t impact things. But I always struggle when “plugs” or “models” seem to be bigger than the actual numbers.

Honestly, I have no idea if today’s numbers are the aberration or whether it was what was originally reported, but that is the point!

How are we making decisions based on data that seems to be a wild guess (apologies to wild guesses)?

Sure, if there is no way to get better, more accurate, timely data, then we’d have to live with it. We had to live with carrier pigeons at one time.

I find it difficult to believe that a nation that put astronauts on the moon, cannot figure out a better way to calculate data that is so crucial to decision making!

So, yes, Houston, we have a problem, but the bigger problem isn’t today’s numbers, it is that we don’t really know what numbers are correct or not!

On the other hand, my view that we don’t see a hike this year looks better today, than it did a week ago (and that is with no “deal” in Iran, which any deal, will also help).

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 09:40

Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal

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Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The Islamic Society of Tulsa has filed a federal lawsuit against the City of Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, and four individual city council members after the city denied its request to build a mosque and Islamic community center.

The suit, which was filed on Aug. 3, alleges the denial violated the U.S. Constitution, the federal Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act, and Oklahoma law by discriminating against Muslims.

The city of Broken Arrow said in an email to The Epoch Times that it does not comment on lawsuits. The city acknowledged on July 28 that the U.S. Department of Justice had started an investigation into the matter.

“The City Council and Administration are fully engaged with the DOJ in its investigation,” the city stated, adding it would have no further comment.

The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division is investigating whether Broken Arrow violated the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act after denying the rezoning application for the Islamic Society of Tulsa.

According to the complaint, the Islamic Society of Tulsa bought about 15 acres of land in Broken Arrow in 2014 with the intention of building a mosque, a community center, and a small commercial development.

City planning staff concluded the proposal complied with the city’s comprehensive plan and recommended approval. The Broken Arrow Planning Commission also voted to recommend approval after a lengthy public hearing.

The lawsuit claims the proposal was rejected by the City Council after “a wave of bigoted opposition from members of the community and local politicians.”

Despite recommendations from city staff and the Planning Commission, the City Council voted 4–1 on Jan. 12 to deny both the rezoning request and the conditional use permit.

The lawsuit further alleges the city approved similar rezoning and permitting requests for Christian churches and commercial developments while allowing those applicants to address traffic and engineering issues later in the approval process.

The complaint seeks a court order allowing the project to proceed, a declaration that the city’s actions were unlawful, and monetary damages including attorneys’ fees.

It also notes the DOJ’s investigation into whether the city violated federal religious land-use protections.

Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond is asking the Trump administration to halt the DOJ investigation.

In a letter to President Donald Trump and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, Drummond called the investigation “federal overreach” and said land-use decisions should be left to state and local officials.

Drummond also asked the DOJ to withdraw requests for records involving private citizens, require senior-level approval for any further investigative steps, and coordinate with the Oklahoma Attorney General’s Office before taking additional action against Oklahoma municipalities.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/07/2026 – 09:20

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