Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearPolitics,

A nonprofit founded by Georgia Democratic politician Stacey Abrams to protect voting rights paid more than $20 million to a lawyer who is a close friend and helped set up two of her private businesses, according to tax and state incorporation filings and other records obtained by RealClearInvestigations.

Abrams’ Fair Fight Action redirected the tax-exempt donations and government grants to Allegra Lawrence-Hardy, her former campaign chair between 2019 and 2023. Most of the funds covered legal expenses charged by the boutique law firm Lawrence-Hardy co-founded, for a failed race-bias lawsuit filed against Abram’s Republican opponent, Gov. Brian Kemp, after she lost to him in Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial election.

In its articles of incorporation, Fair Fight Action Inc. states that “The Corporation will not be operated for the pecuniary gain or profit of any individual.” They also said no revenues will be “distributed” to any individual except when “authorized to pay reasonable compensation for services rendered.”

The nonprofit’s payout to her friend’s law firm, which averaged more than $4 million each year over those five years, raised eyebrows and conflict-of-interest concerns among ethics watchdogs briefed by RCI.

“Twenty million in fees is outrageous,” said Paul Kamenar, counsel for the National Legal and Policy Center. “It may be an IRS violation for waste of nonprofit assets, as well as self-dealing and other ethical and legal breaches.”

“At a minimum hiring her friend as lead attorney presents a glaring conflict of interest, because Abrams’ close association with both the Fair Fight case and her friend provided an opportunity to enrich her friend through the nonprofit’s litigation.”

He and other legal experts say the costs to litigate the case were extravagant compared with other voting-rights cases fought in federal court. The state of Georgia paid less than $6 million total to its law firms defending the state in the case.

The unusually high legal bills helped drive Fair Fight Action more than $2.5 million into debt last year, forcing the group to lay off the majority of its staff.

College Friends 

Abrams’ and Lawrence-Hardy’s friendship dates back to their days as students at Spelman College. They have also set up businesses together, state records reveal.

Although there is no evidence that Abrams benefited directly from the fees paid to Lawrence-Hardy’s law firm, Abrams holds an ownership interest in at least two Atlanta-based companies that were incorporated by Lawrence-Hardy. Lawrence-Hardy and Abrams have also shared the same office suite in Atlanta for several years. 

Neither Lawrence-Hardy nor Abrams responded to requests for comment.

In her 2022 book, “Level Up: Rise Above The Hidden Forces Holding Your Business Back,” Abrams acknowledged Lawrence-Hardy as someone who has supported her business ventures. “Sustaining the pursuit of a business ambition demands all manner of investment – definitely financial capital, but less often lauded, copious amounts of patience, forbearance and forgiveness,” Abrams wrote. “I appreciate these coming in abundance from those named and unnamed, including … Allegra Lawrence-Hardy.”

The IRS declined to comment on whether it is investigating Fair Fight Action. It has received multiple complaints in the past which outline the blurry lines between Abrams’ connection to nonprofits that appeared to advance her political career. In 2019, the agency received a complaint about the nonprofit from the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust (FACT) over allegations that Fair Fight was using money raised to advance voting rights to support Abrams’ political ambitions, including paying some of her travel expenses, running $100,000 in Facebook ads featuring Abrams, and supporting a “Stacey Abrams Fundraiser.” The IRS did not say if or how this case was resolved.

Along with the Georgia Senate, the IRS is actively investigating another nonprofit started by Abrams, the New Georgia Project, which failed to report millions of dollars in contributions and spending tied to Abrams’ first gubernatorial bid in 2018. Abrams also lost to Kemp in a 2022 rematch.

The lucrative Fair Fight deal for her friend adds to ethical concerns over Abrams, who has a checkered financial background and yet has amassed millions of dollars in wealth working mostly in the public and nonprofit sectors, as RCI has reported previously. Abrams has presidential ambitions and aims to become the first black female U.S. president by 2040.

Political Allies

Lawrence-Hardy chaired her campaign in both the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections, which means she was litigating the voting-rights case while running her second campaign. Kristen Wilder, Lawrence-Hardy’s longtime chief of staff,  previously worked as the senior political manager at Fair Fight Action. Wilder also worked on Abrams’ gubernatorial campaign.

Abrams headed Fair Fight in 2018 when it hired Lawrence-Hardy’s firm as lead counsel in the case, Fair Fight Action v. Raffensperger. The suit claimed that the Georgia secretary of state’s office denied minorities the right to vote. The litigation promoted Abrams’ allegations that she was “robbed” of victory by Kemp, whom she claimed had “disenfranchised” blacks through discriminatory voting rules. During the trial, Lawrence-Hardy argued, “This is a modern-day Jim Crow.” The lawsuit would help turn Abrams into a national political figure and celebrity, a symbol of resistance to President Trump and a leader of the emerging Black Lives Matter movement.

But in September 2022, a federal court disagreed, dismissing the case and ordering Fair Fight to pay more than $231,000 in court costs and legal fees.

The lawsuit was always a long shot. To succeed, Fair Fight had to prove intentional discrimination in the state’s election laws and practices. In his ruling, U.S. District Judge Steve C. Jones – an Obama appointee – ruled that Fair Fight failed to provide “direct evidence of a voter who was unable to vote” because of the state’s allegedly racist election laws.

Nevertheless, tax records show that Lawrence-Hardy’s firm earned a steady stream of fees. In 2019, her Atlanta-based firm, Lawrence & Bundy LLC, billed Fair Fight $3.1 million, according to IRS filings. In 2020, when the nonprofit’s revenues peaked at $51 million, the firm billed the nonprofit its largest fee amount – $6.4 million – for “legal services.” In 2022, her firm was paid an additional $5 million, after receiving $4.4 million in fees from Fair Fight in 2021, despite the case shrinking as Judge Jones dismissed large sections of the lawsuit. According to a 2023 IRS return filed by Fair Fight Action, the latest available document, Lawrence & Bundy LLC received more than $1.3 million in legal fees that year, despite the election lawsuit being dismissed the previous year. Lawrence-Hardy is a founding partner of Lawrence & Bundy LLC.

All told over those five years, Lawrence-Hardy and her firm received $20.2 million largely for their work on a single, losing election-integrity lawsuit against the state of Georgia, which critics called “frivolous” and designed to try to explain away Abrams’ back-to-back gubernatorial election losses in 2018 and 2022.

Abrams was not only involved in retaining Lawrence-Hardy but also helped fundraise for the case until December 2021, when she stepped down from Fair Fight’s board to announce her second bid for governor. As Fair Fight’s CEO, Abrams was paid an annual salary of $80,000.

Cozy Office Space

Lawrence & Bundy LLC, whose website lists 15 attorneys, was founded by Lawrence-Hardy in 2016. Its Atlanta offices are located at 1180 W. Peachtree St. NW, Suite 1650. This is the location where Fair Fight sent the $20.2 million, according to IRS documents. It is the same address for two businesses that are at least partially owned by Abrams.

According to Georgia state incorporation records, one of the entities, Davis Hall LLC, was registered in February 2011 by Lawrence & Bundy LLC; while the other, Hall Davis LLC, was registered in January 2021 by the same agent – Lawrence & Bundy LLC. Both entities are listed by Abrams in her 2022 Georgia state financial disclosure statement as business entities in which she holds an ownership interest of 5% or more. It is not clear what the businesses do. Abrams and Lawrence & Bundy declined to say.

A third enterprise owned by Abrams, Sage Works LLC, lists the same business address as the other companies – 1180 W. Peachtree St. NW, Suite 1650, which is the address for Lawrence & Bundy LLC.

Abrams founded Sage Works LLC as a consulting firm “providing advice to governmental and nonprofit clients on operations,” according to her disclosures. Records show she was paid $62,000 in taxpayer money as a consultant on an Atlanta urban redevelopment project, which raised red flags because she was a state lawmaker at the time.

“These businesses raise more suspicion that Abrams used her nonprofit [Fair Fight] to enrich her friends and herself,” Kamenar said, “which is a clear conflict of interest.”

Lawrence-Hardy is an active member of the Georgia bar in “good standing” with no disciplinary history. She is currently listed as co-managing partner at a larger Atlanta-based firm, Krevolin Horst LLC, where she specializes in “high-profile/high stakes litigation.” She is still featured throughout the Lawrence & Bundy website. 

Fair Fight said it hired Lawrence-Hardy because of her expertise in election law, both at the state and federal levels, along with her experience litigating prior Democratic candidate recounts.

Lawrence-Hardy maintained that the lawsuit was always about the voters, not the money. Voting rights is a cause dear to her, according to her website bio, though she did not choose to take the case pro bono as she has other cases.

It remains unclear why the lawsuit incurred such a high cost.

At the time, Lawrence-Hardy said the case required large resources. She led a team of almost three dozen lawyers, including some from outside her firm. During the trial, she said she deposed a “staggering number” of witnesses in the case: “We had more than 3,000 voters or would-be voters submit declarations, 50 witnesses and hundreds who gave depositions.” 

Yet despite several years of billing Fair Fight, Lawrence-Hardy found no evidence of voter discrimination, according to the court. Nonetheless, Lawrence-Hardy on her website lists the case among her biggest professional accomplishments, arguing she initially “defeated defendants’ motion for summary judgment.”

The IRS filings do not break down the legal expenses charged in the case. Neither Lawrence-Hardy nor Fair Fight would share billing records to understand the exact nature of the work conducted during the drawn-out legal battle. They also would not reveal the hourly rate charged by Lawrence-Hardy’s firm. Legal fees are normally billed on an hourly basis and appear in a line-by-line accounting on statements to clients.

Now operating in the red, Fair Fight is not happy that the Trump administration is cutting federal spending for left-leaning non-governmental organizations. Earlier this year, the embattled organization protested Trump’s freezing of tens of millions of dollars in federal election-security grants.

Paul Sperry is an investigative reporter for RealClearInvestigations. He is also a longtime media fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Sperry was previously the Washington bureau chief for Investor’s Business Daily, and his work has appeared in the New York Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Houston Chronicle, among other major publications.

A better than expected headline payrolls print has sparked a surge in stocks and bond yields this morning as the long-await (and hoped for by some) recessionary collapse in the labor market remains elusive.

Even if below the surface things are not so healthy, rate-cut expectations for 2025 have plunged to less than two total cuts (2026 expectations up marginally)…

Never one to miss an opportunity – even on a day when he should probably take a break from social media – President Trump dropped some more advice for Fed Chair Powell:

Strong unemployment, falling inflation, and no signs (except in partisan survey responses) of economic weakness from Trump’s tariff-nado. One has to wonder what it is that Powell is waiting for… unlike in September of last year?

Finally, one thought – is this Trump pivoting his rage from Musk to Powell – a far easier, and less wealthy, opposition.

Winnebago Industries issued a profit warning ahead of its presentation at the Baird 2025 Global Consumer, Technology & Services Conference on Thursday, citing weakening demand across the RV market and increased macroeconomic headwinds.

For the third quarter, Winnebago forecasted net revenue of $775 million, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $810.4 million. The company also guided adjusted earnings per share in the range of $0.75 to $0.85. Analysts expect the company to report a profit per share of $1.37. All in all, this marked a significant downward revision, highlighting the depth of demand weakness in the RV market.

Preliminary Third Quarter Earnings Results:

• Prelim net revenue about $775 million, estimate $810.4 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Prelim adjusted EPS 75c to 85c, estimate $1.37

“What began as an encouraging selling season in March was hampered by growing macroeconomic uncertainty, resulting in worsening consumer sentiment and an increasingly cautious dealer network in the final two months of our fiscal third quarter,” stated Winnebago CEO Michael Happe. 

Raymond James analyst Joseph Altobello told clients, “Winnebago Industries announced disappointing preliminary F3Q results this morning that reflect both weaker consumer sentiment and an increasingly cautious dealer base.” 

Truist analyst Michael Swartz noted that the challenges facing Winnebago are neither new nor unique to the company, but rather indicative of broader, ongoing headwinds across the entire RV industry.

“While the Winnebago Motorized unit is now a much smaller piece of business, today’s announcement will likely amplify questions/concerns around the motorized market, in general, and whether larger strategic actions need to be undertaken amid a depressed retail environment,” Swartz said. 

The RV industry experienced a boom during the early pandemic years, fueled by a zero-interest-rate environment ushered in by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that unleashed a flurry of retail demand. However, that demand quickly unraveled once Powell began aggressively hiking rates in early 2022, triggering a sharp pullback in camper sales in the quarters that followed. 

Additionally, camper stocks and retail shops that cater to the industry have been in a slump since rates increased.

The RV downturn ends when rates go back down. 

Via Remix News,

The Ukrainian Drug Control Service recently issued the first license to import medical cannabis into Ukraine, after the law on the legalization of medical cannabis officially came into force in Ukraine last August. Several organizations have lobbied for at least partial legalization of marijuana in Ukraine in recent years – most of them supported by George Soros. This is no coincidence.

The Ukrainian Drug Control Service recently issued the first license for the import of medical cannabis into Ukraine, the document was issued on June 2, 2025, the Ukrainian news portal RBC reported. 

In Ukraine, the law on the legalization of medical cannabis officially entered into force in August 2024. This allows the distribution of hemp-based medicines for medical, scientific and industrial purposes. As Remix News has documented in the past, medical and legal marijuana is not as benign as promoted and has only helped fuel the drug and mental crisis in the countries where it has already been legalized.

As V4NA reported, several organizations have been lobbying for the legalization of marijuana, at least partially, in Ukraine for years. In the summer of 2022, a bill was submitted to legalize medical marijuana products in Ukraine, when Ukrainian Health Minister Viktor Liashko announced that the Ukrainian cabinet had approved a bill on regulating the distribution of cannabis plants for medical, industrial, scientific and research and development purposes, in order to create conditions for patients to access cannabis-based products for the treatment of cancer and post-traumatic stress disorder caused by war.

🇭🇺🇪🇺PM Viktor Orbán: “Soros has a plan to change the traditional image of the European continent, which is Christian and European, and to turn Europe into a mixed continent, a continent with a mixed population.

It’s okay if the White man and the European man are dwindling, and… pic.twitter.com/2xC5yflV2H

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 15, 2024

“We understand the negative consequences of war on mental health. We can see how many people will need medical treatment as a result of this impact. And we understand that there is no time to wait,” the minister wrote about the draft law on his social media page.

The country has been holding “hemp marches,” marches calling for legalization, since the 2000s, but the issue only developed into serious lobbying efforts a few years ago. President Poroshenko became the driving force behind this process, along with then-Minister of Health Ulana Suprun, who spent several years trying to convince Ukrainians that legalization was “a normal practice in civilized countries.”

Several organizations have been lobbying heavily in Ukraine for the legalization of marijuana, apparently serving the interests of global financial players.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, one of the initiators of the bill, was a direct associate of former Minister of Health Ulana Suprun. Previously, she was the head of the charitable foundation Patients of Ukraine, with a monthly salary of 70,000 hryvnias (about €1,800). The Ukrainian news portal Klymenko Time points out that this is considered a fairly good salary in Ukraine. As they write, the organization Patients of Ukraine actively lobbied for the legalization of marijuana.

Just like the organization 100% Life, whose leader, Dmytro Sherembey, previously worked with Olha Stefanishyna at the Patients of Ukraine organization, and also led several joint projects and events with Ulana Supron.

Janina Sokolova actively campaigned for the legalization of medical marijuana

Journalist-reporter Yanina Sokolova, known for her unpleasant, tough questions and for embarrassing public figures, also played an important role in the campaign for legalization. Klymenko Time called Sokolova the main propagandist of former President Petro Poroshenko.

What the Patients of Ukraine, 100% Life organizations, and Yanina Sokolova’s campaign have in common is that they are all supported by the Ukrainian International Renaissance Foundation of American financial oligarch George Soros, a convicted insider trader.

The fund founded by George Soros, which operates in Ukraine, also oversees a special public health program. It is within this framework that all these activists and their campaigns in support of cannabis receive funding. According to the 2019 report of the Soros Foundation, 23.85 percent of the 335 million hryvnias allocated to Ukraine were spent on the public health program. This is almost 80 million hryvnias (more than €2 million), writes Klymenko Time.

The Ukrainian curators of the program are Victoria Timosevska and Olena Kucheruk from the Soros Foundation. Timosevska lobbied for the legalization of marijuana and the corresponding bill back in 2016. Kucheruk began working in the East-West Partnership Without Borders program, one of Soros’ first projects in Ukraine. In the early 2000s, the office’s staff applied for the European call for proposals for the Program for Reducing Harm from Drug Use.

Soros is known to be one of the world’s biggest backers of legalizing marijuana and relaxing laws against hard drugs. He reportedly spent at least $80 million in the United States on efforts to legalize marijuana.

At the time, when he supported countless NGOs worldwide that fought for the legalization of marijuana, George Soros also became one of the most important shareholders of the American multinational chemical, agricultural and biotechnology company Monsanto (Monsanto merged with the German Bayer AG in 2018).

Monsanto already grew corn and soybeans in Uruguay for years, but the company also actively did research on THC, the active compound in marijuana. Incidentally, Soros is also credited with helping spread genetically modified food in Uruguay and also pushing for the legalization of marijuana in the South American country.

An organization he funded lavishly, the Drug Policy Alliance, also played a pivotal role in getting marijuana legalized. In its 2013 annual report, the chairman of the Drug Policy Alliance boasted: “In Uruguay we played a crucial role, as we helped a public education campaign to coordinate. There was a close collaboration with government officials, activists, journalists and others, including President José Mujica whom I met with personally.”

In fact, the president of the country had met with Soros privately in New York shortly before he returned to his country and convinced the senate to legalize the drug, making it the first South American country to do so. Soros-backed organizations reportedly poured millions into an ad campaign that ran across the country in order to influence the public into backing pro-cannabis legislation.

This was all done in opposition to public opinion, with 58 to 66 percent of Uruguayans being opposed to legalizing the sale of marijuana, while only 24 to 29 percent backed the legalization.

The marijuana industry has grown at a rapid pace in recent years, creating a billion-dollar industry. Two research firms, Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics, estimated that global cannabis industry revenue could grow from $6.9 billion in 2017 to $16.9 billion in 2019 and more than $31 billion in 2022. Other analysts, such as Cowen Inc., estimate that with legalization, the global industry could reach sales of more than $50 billion by 2026.

At the same time, the Ukrainian news portal Klymenko Time drew attention to the fact that cannabis companies need new markets for further development, for which Ukraine would provide a good opportunity.

Canadian and American companies have also long been eyeing Ukraine. However, as they wrote: “A lot of hemp could be grown in our chernozems, which could be easily exported as a raw product. And the added value would be obtained from processing in other countries.”

Soros saw Ukrainians as cannon fodder already in the 1990s

Soros has a long and deep history in Ukraine that goes far beyond cannabis legalization. The billionaire financier, often portrayed as a humanist, promoted a hard-nosed geopolitical strategy in his 1993 piece entitled “Toward a New World Order: The Future of NATO.” In the piece, he outlines how Eastern Europeans could be used as the “manpower” in coming conflicts in an effort to reduce the number of deaths in Western countries, which Soros argues the West would not politically tolerate, unlike the East of Europe.

“The United States would not be called upon to act as the policeman of the world. When it acts, it would act in conjunction with others. Incidentally, the combination of manpower from Eastern Europe with the technical capabilities of NATO would greatly enhance the military potential of the Partnership because it would reduce the risk of body bags for NATO countries, which is the main constraint on their willingness to act. This is a viable alternative to the looming world disorder,” wrote Soros in the article.

Soros acknowledges that the NATO countries have no appetite for “body bags,” but his statement implicitly indicates that Eastern Europeans can fill this role.

What Soros described appears to be unfolding exactly as he predicted regarding the war in Ukraine. Armed with high-end NATO weapons, Ukrainian soldiers are ones tasked with actively countering Russia, which Soros had already feared would become a nationalist nation opposed to the global order he was promoting in 1993. That Soros already saw the potential of what this symbiotic match could produce on the battlefield decades in advance will likely bolster his reputation as a calculating — and perhaps ruthless — strategic thinker.

As Soros predicted, Ukrainian society appears to be tolerating the high death toll in its current conflict with Russia. During the Vietnam War, the U.S. lost 58,220 over the course of approximately 10 years, and yet, the war saw strong opposition from the American public. Despite a far higher death toll in a far shorter period of time, Ukrainian society has seen little in terms of protests.

The lack of protest in Ukraine may also be helped by the fact that Ukraine has suspended most of civil society, banned opposition parties and media, canceled all elections, and even outlawed the Russian Orthodox Church. Another key factor in society’s perspective on the conflict is that the war is taking place on Ukrainian soil, which is a highly motivating factor for Ukrainian soldiers.

Ukraine’s drug market is growing at an extraordinary rate

Modern war breeds drug addicts, and in Ukraine, drug use on the front lines is widespread and increasing.

Ukrainian recruiters usually take active or former drug users into the military, who are drafted without proper medical examination, and in many cases, they have no problem maintaining their addiction at the frontline, where the narcotics trade is a big business.

Many soldiers serving on the front line use drugs as a means of escape, while others use them to relax after sleepless nights spent under constant artillery fire.

Others are simply bored. Some use drugs to stay alert, as they are almost constantly on edge and in life-threatening situations. The front line has become a lucrative market for people involved in the drug trade. 

In many ways, Ukraine is becoming an open-air drug market, with drugs being pushed at home and on the front. As always, few profit from this development, while many continue to suffer.

Read more here…

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Goldman Sachs analysts cut Tesla’s delivery forecasts, slashed earnings estimates, and scaled back expectations for brand momentum across key markets. The message is clear: demand is weakening, competition is accelerating, and consumer enthusiasm is fading. This sentiment is also shared with UBS. 

“We’re lowering our Tesla vehicle delivery assumptions and EPS estimates to better reflect weaker monthly datapoints in key regions (e.g. China, the US, and Europe), and also consumer survey data on Tesla (per HundredX and Morning Consult),” analysts Mark Delaney, Dan Duggan, and others wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. 

The analysts revised their outlook and now expect 2Q25 deliveries to come in at just 365,000 units, a sharp downgrade from the prior 410,000 estimate—and well below Visible Alpha Consensus data of 417,000.

Industry and registration data through May show continued year-over-year declines across key global markets, including the US, China, and Europe. 

Full-year delivery estimates were also slashed:

• 2025: cut from 1.70 million to 1.575 million

• 2026: cut from 1.95 million to 1.865 million

• 2027: cut from 2.20 million to 2.15 million

The analysts also cut their earnings estimates, citing softer sales volumes as a key drag on profitability:

• 2025: $1.10 (was $1.25)

• 2026: $2.05 (was $2.15)

• 2027: $3.00 (was $3.10)

Translation so far from the analysts: “We remain Neutral rated on TSLA shares. We lower our 12-month price target to $285 from $295 prior.” 

To gauge consumer sentiment, analysts cited data from HundredX and Morning Consult, which showed declines in Tesla’s brand buzz and purchase intent across North America and Europe. Sentiment remains particularly weak in Canada, France, Germany, and the UK, while China stands out as the lone bright spot.

Goldman’s outlook echoes UBS’ take from last week, which warned that global enthusiasm for the Tesla brand is waning. Both firms maintained a cautious stance on the stock.

“Overall, we remain cautious on Tesla stock,” UBS analyst Joseph Spak said in the note. UBS maintains a Sell rating with a 12-month price target of $190. 

Meanwhile, Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities recently raised his 12-month price target on Tesla to a Street-high $500 from $350, citing the near-term launch of Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing Cybercabs as a major catalyst to spark the “golden age of autonomy.” 

The Trump administration has just nominated a slew of new generals to head up top US military commands in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

Importantly, Air Force General Alex Grynkewich has been nominated as NATO’s new Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (SACEUR) and head of U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

This comes amid reports that the US under the Trump administration is growing frustrated enough to ‘step back’ from NATO leadership, with lack of collective defense spending out of Europe.

For example, Defense News last month acknowledged, :The nomination to head European Command, which is not yet final, comes at a moment of uncertainty for America’s military commitment to Europe, potentially including cuts to U.S. forces on the continent and a lesser role in the NATO alliance.”

Brussels is meanwhile pushing plans for NATO buildup plans in connection with a new spending goal, also at a moment Washington has told the UK that it should reach a target of 5% of GDP spending on defense, according to The Telegraph.

Grynkewich currently serves as Joint Staff Director for Operations and was formerly the top US Air Force commander in the Middle East, which means he oversaw the aerial response to CENTCOM’s prior bombing raids against the Houthis of Yemen, as well as previously ‘counter-ISIS’ ops in northern Syria.

According to his official Air Force bio:

Lt. Gen. Grynkewich received his commission in 1993 after graduating from the U.S. Air Force Academy. He has served as an instructor pilot, weapons officer and operational test pilot in the F-16 Fighting Falcon and F-22 Raptor. Lt. Gen. Grynkewich has commanded at the squadron, wing and Air Expeditionary Task Force levels. His staff assignments include service at Air Combat Command, U.S. European Command, U.S. Central Command, Headquarters Air Force, and the Joint Staff. Prior to his current assignment, he served as the 9th Air Force (Air Forces Central), Shaw Air Force Base, South Carolina, and the Combined Forces Air Component Commander for U.S. Central Command, Southwest Asia.

President Trump also nominated Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, currently CENTCOM’s deputy commander, to lead CENTCOM. Additionally, Dagvin Anderson, director for Joint Force Development, has been tapped to lead US Africa Command (AFRICOM).

The Pentagon announces U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich as NATO’s new Supreme Allied Commander and head of U.S. European Command. pic.twitter.com/IIofVrs7W3

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 5, 2025

This fresh crop of commanders are likely being tapped for their loyalty to Trump’s vision of ‘make deals, not chaos’ for the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

While there’s no peace on the horizon as yet when it comes to Ukraine, Gaza, or Yemen – there’s been noticeably quiet from the White House these past few days as both conflict theatres heat up. This could be a good thing, given Trump is not issuing threats, but could be patiently waiting for how Russia’s retaliation on Ukraine – for example – plays out.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as Tesla shares rebounded 4% in premarket on signs that the spat between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk is cooling. Market gains had little conviction as traders brace for Friday’s main event: a pivotal payrolls report (full preview here) that’s likely to set the direction of travel for markets. Nasdaq futures also add 0.5% even as Broadcom shares fall 3% in premarket after giving a a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter. European stocks are little changed. Bond yields are 1-2bp lower; the USD is higher; the yen dropped after BBG reported that Bank of Japan officials are likely to discuss slowing their pullback from buying government bonds at a policy meeting later this month. Commodities are mostly higher: Gold climbs $6 to around $3,358/oz while silver tops $36/oz. WTI falls 0.6% to $63 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 3%. Macro headlines were largely muted overnight; All eyes on NFP today.

In premarket trading, Mag7 stocks are higher, led by Tesla, whose shares are set to rebound, rising 4.9% premarket, after plunging on Thursday as the feud between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump showed signs of de-escalation (Amazon +1%, Meta +0.8%, Apple +0.6%, Alphabet +0.6%, Nvidia +0.5%, Microsoft +0.4%). 

• Broadcom (AVGO) dropped 3% after the company gave a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter, suggesting that the AI spending frenzy isn’t as strong as some investors anticipated. Lululemon added to the gloom after its latest earnings report highlighted the risk posed by new tariffs and exacerbated concerns about slowing growth.
• Docusign (DOCU) shares are down 18% after the e-signature software company gave a second-quarter billings outlook that is weaker than expected.
• Lululemon (LULU) shares plunge 21% after the upscale athletic clothing company cut its earnings per share forecast for the full year.

Markets are still reveberating from the spat between Trump and Musk in which Trump proposed cutting off the billionaire’s government contracts. Musk, who sparked the public feud by criticizing Trump’s signature tax bill, later signaled that he’s keen to dial down the hostility. White House aides have reportedly scheduled a call with the world’s richest person for Friday in an effort to cool things down. Their public back-and-forth triggered the most spectacular real-time destruction of wealth ever, with $34 billion erased from Musk’s net worth. Tesla shares are rebounding in premarket, after tanking 14% Thursday.

“Futures are edging higher, perhaps as Musk has started to suggest on X that he would be open to a cooling-off period in his war of words with the President,” said Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG.

Moves in other asset clases were more muted as traders awaited Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for fresh insight on how the Trump administration’s trade war is affecting the economy. Turning to today’s main event, economists see payrolls rising by 125,000 after job growth in March and April exceeded projections. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.  Weak payrolls data would be bad news for markets, with a big miss potentially sending stocks down 1.5%, according to Goldman Sachs traders (full preview here). A softening labor market would support expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year.

“Investors are getting used to all the noise and are looking at concrete matters like the jobs report or budget,” said Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers. “There is a cooling trend in the labor market, which I expect will show this afternoon. That should further reinforce our call for two or three cuts from the Fed this year.”

Meanwhile, BofA’s Michael Hartnett is warning that global stocks are close to triggering sell signals as both fund inflows and market breadth are running too hot. The strategist said inflows to stocks and high-yield bonds have totaled 0.9% of AUM in the past four weeks. The sell signal will be set off if that exceeds 1%. 

European equities are little changed as investors search for fresh catalysts on trade negotiations between the US and China and look ahead to a key US jobs report. The real estate and health care sectors outperform, while consumer shares are among the biggest laggards. Among individual movers, Adidas and Puma fall after Lululemon’s disappointing quarter fueled concerns over rising competition and tariffs. Here are the biggest European movers:

• Chemring gains for an 18th straight day, rising as much as 5.1% following an upgrade to buy at Berenberg which gives the UK defense firm a clean sweep of positive analyst ratings
• Galderma shares gain as much as 3.3%, to the highest level since February after Kepler Cheuvreux initiated coverage of the Swiss pure play dermatology group with a recommendation of buy and a new street high price target.
• Demant shares jump as much as 6.7% as the stock trades for the first time since being upgraded to buy at Citi.
• Huber + Suhner shares rise as much as 4.6% after Berenberg said the Swiss electrical products manufacturer is especially well-positioned for growth as it started coverage with a buy rating.
• Canal+ rises as much as 8.1%, reaching highest since mid December, after the media and entertainment company confirmed its full-year expectations and said it has reached an agreement with France’s cinema agency to settle a tax dispute.
• Recordati shares gain as much as 3.4% to a three-month high after JPMorgan lifted its price target on the stock, saying the Italian pharmaceutical company’s growth outlook is “strong and sustainable,” even before more M&A activity.
• Norwegian salmon stocks gaining after a broad cross-party agreement to delay any sweeping changes to the licensing system for several years, according to a statement from the parties after markets closed on Thursday.
• European athleisure stocks fall as US-listed Lululemon posted a second straight disappointing quarter, fueling concerns around the impact of rising competition and new tariffs.
• Allegro shares drop after two of its major holders — investment vehicles of Cinven and Permira Holdings, sold a 5.2% stake in the company.
• PostNL falls as much as 12.5% as Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Marc Zeck downgraded his recommendation from hold to reduce.
• Dassault Systemes shares decline as much as 2.5% after the company said it aims to double its non-IFRS diluted EPS by 2029, pushing out a more ambitious 2028 goal.
• Polish banking stocks fall after Szymon Holownia, the leader of junior coalition party Polska 2050, told Polsat News that he wants to include a windfall tax on lenders into a renegotiated coalition agreement.

Earlier in the session,  Asian stocks traded in a tight range as a much-anticipated call between Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping offered little details on how trade negotiations would progress. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. Indian stocks rose after the central bank cut interest rates more than projected and unexpectedly reduced the cash reserve ratio for banks. Gauges in Hong Kong fell, while those in Japan rebounded. Markets in Indonesia, Philippines and South Korea were closed for holidays.

In rates, treasuries edge higher ahead of the jobs report, with US 10-year yields falling nearly 2 bps to 3.37%. Bunds outperform their US peers, pushing German 10-year borrowing costs down 5 bps to 2.54%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The Japanese yen and Swedish krona are the weakest G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% each. The euro dips 0.3% with little reaction seen after euro-area GDP was revised up for the first quarter. ECB policymakers largely stuck to Thursday’s messaging after they cut rates by a quarter point. USDJPY rose 0.4% to 144.08 after BBG reported that Bank of Japan officials are likely to discuss slowing their pullback from buying government bonds at a policy meeting later this month.

In commodities, gold climbs $6 to around $3,360/oz while silver tops $36/oz. WTI falls 0.6% to $63 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 3%.

Looking at today’s calendar, the payrolls numbers are due at 8:30 a.m., while consumer credit data is due later in the day. The Fed’s Bowman is scheduled to give a speech on supervision and regulation.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.2%, CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.38%
• VIX -0.3 points at 18.18
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1210.26
• euro -0.3% at $1.1413
• WTI crude -0.5% at $63.03/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Elon Musk signaled he would move to cool tensions with US President Donald Trump, after differences between the two exploded Thursday into an all-out public feud.
• White House aides scheduled a call with Elon Musk today to take down the temperature after a public feud erupted with Donald Trump. Musk signaled he’s open to cooling tensions. Premarket, Tesla shares (+4.3%) pared some of yesterday’s plunge. Musk also backed off on a threat to decommission SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft. BBG
• In the midst of the trade war and administration efforts to disentangle the U.S. and Chinese economies, US pharma companies have simultaneously supercharged their interest in China-based biotechs, announcing what are likely to be the biggest deals ever for the rights to experimental medicines invented by Chinese companies. Barron’s
• The US Treasury called on the BOJ to raise rates to strengthen the yen, making a remarkable policy recommendation in its semiannual currency report. Japan’s finance ministry said it doesn’t comment on the views of a foreign government. BBG
• Expectations in the market are intensifying that the Japanese government may adjust debt issuance as soon as next month by increasing sales of shorter maturity securities and trimming offerings of longer-dated ones to prevent a further rise in yields. BBG
• The European Central Bank is approaching the end of its interest-rate cuts, according to two Governing Council members, as others declared inflation has been vanquished.
• The Reserve Bank of India cut its key policy rate on Friday by an unexpectedly sharp 50 bps to 5.5%, its lowest level in nearly three years, as tepid inflation allowed the bank to focus on spurring economic growth. Nikkei
• Iran orders thousands of tons of ballistic missile material from China as Tehran looks to rebuild its arsenal and provide more weapons to proxies in the Middle East. WSJ
• We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 110k in May, below consensus of 125k and the three-month average of +155k. On the positive side, big data indicators suggested a healthy pace of job creation. On the negative side, trade policy uncertainty was very high across the survey period and we expect another 10k decline in federal government payrolls from workforce reductions. GIR
• The ECB is approaching the end of its interest-rate cycle, Madis Muller said. Fellow Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras told BTV that the bank should take a break to give officials a chance to assess recent shocks. BBG
• Trump told Senate Republicans he’s open to a SALT cap below the $40,000 in the House-passed tax bill. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

• German Chancellor Merz said Europe is looking for more independence from China and tariffs are having a “terrible” impact on German automakers, while the Chancellery and White House agreed to even closer cooperation on trade talks, according to CNN. Merz also commented that US tariffs are threatening our economy and we are looking for ways to bring them down, according to a Fox News interview. German Chancellor Merz said this US admin is open for discussions, and hearing other opinions; no doubts US will stick with NATO
• Canadian PM Carney spoke with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and exchanged views on bilateral relations, while they emphasised the importance of engagement and both leaders agreed to regularise communication channels between Canada and China. Furthermore, they also discussed trade between the two nations and Carney’s office stated that both governments committed to collaborating on addressing the fentanyl crisis.
• Chinese Premier Li held talks with Canadian PM Carney, according to Xinhua; China willing to safeguard multilaterals and free trade with Canada. There is ‘great potential’ for cooperation between China & Canada. Both should strengthen cooperation in clean energy, climate change, and innovation.
• Japan’s government said trade negotiator Akazawa met with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Akazawa strongly sought a review of US tariffs, while they discussed non-tariff barriers and trade expansion.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from the US where a stunning online bust-up between US President Trump and Elon Musk overshadowed the recent call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi in which the leaders agreed to start a new round of talks ASAP. ASX 200 saw two-way, rangebound trade as outperformance in the energy and utilities sectors was counterbalanced by losses in gold miners and the top-weighted financial industry, while a lack of pertinent data releases also contributed to the uneventful picture. Nikkei 225 gained with the index supported by recent currency weakness although further upside was capped following disappointing Household Spending data which showed a steeper-than-feared M/M decline and a surprise Y/Y  contraction. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive despite the recent phone call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi which the White House had been touting throughout the week, while Xi reiterated calls for the US to handle the Taiwan issue with caution.

Top Asian News

• RBI cut the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.50% (exp. 25bps cut) and changed its stance to neutral from accommodative, while it cut the Standing Deposit Facility Rate and Marginal Standing Facility Rate by 50bps each to 5.25% and 5.75%, respectively. RBI Governor Malhotra said growth remains lower than aspirations and it is important to stimulate growth, as well as noted that front-loading rate cuts to support growth was felt necessary. Malhotra also stated that inflation has softened significantly over the last six months and inflation is likely to undershoot the full-year target at the margin, while he noted that monetary policy has limited space left to support growth and they retained the FY26 Real GDP growth forecast at 6.5%. Furthermore, the RBI Governor announced to cut the Cash Reserve Ratio by 100bps in four equal tranches, which will release INR 2.5tln, as well as noted that they will continue to monitor and take measures as necessary and that the CRR cut is to reduce the cost of funding of banks and help accelerate policy transmission.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1845 vs exp. 7.1935 (Prev. 7.1865).
• Japan’s former top FX diplomat says narrowing US-Japan rate gap will likely support the yen at around 135-140 against USD by year-end.

European bourses – Flat/lower trade across Europe following the fallout of the dramatic Trump-Musk spat, but with traders setting their sights on the US jobs report due 13:30 BST/08:30 EDT. On the week, futures of the broad Stoxx 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices are currently poised for a second week of gains, though not by much at this stage, and will depend on how the aforementioned data comes in. European sectors – Sectors display a mixed picture with the breadth of the market also narrow, with no real bias. Top gainers at the time of writing include Health Care (+0.6%), Energy (+0.5%), and Retail (+0.3%); losers include Basic Resources (-0.9%), Industrial Goods and Services (-0.4%), and Media (-0.3%). European movers – HSBC (+0.3%) chairman Mark Tucker will step down on September 30th. Adidas (-1.3%), JD Sports (-0.5%), and Puma (-1.6%) are all slipping after US apparel maker Lululemon (LULU) saw its shares tumble by over 20% in extended trading. Airbus (-0.9%) confirmed that it delivered 51 jets in May (-4% Y/Y),

Top European News

• UK government unveiled new concessions to private equity firms regarding its tax break crackdown in which it proposed changes to tax treatment of carried interest that will make the regime less onerous, according to FT.
• ECB’s Holzmann says “I dissented” at the rate decision on Thursday (as expected)Lowering rates at a time of high savings and low investments ha no effect except a monetary effectCurrently expansive in monetary policyLagarde said we are at the end of the cycle, wanted to discuss whether that is the caseCurrent nominal neutral rate is around 3%
• ECB’s Muller said ECB can be happy with inflation where it is; and he agrees with ECB President Lagarde that cycle almost finished. Hard to say what’s coming next on rates.
• ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB has won the battle against inflation in Europe, and we will not again see the low rates we saw a few years ago, and added that French inflation is now under control but debt remains a serious issue, “France cannot continue like this”, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Simkus said interest rates are now at neutral; its important to keep full flexibility, according to Reuters. Stournaras said the best thing for the ECB is to wait and see, ECB rate cutting is nearly done, ECB has achieved a soft landing, and ECB may cut if the economy weakens and inflation falls. Stournaras noted of downside risks to growth, and the bank is “quite” confident in its forecasts, and said he’s afraid the Dollar may lose some of its status.
• Bundesbank semi-annual report: German recovery delayed further; economy to tread water in 2025; German GDP to stagnate in 2025, grow by 0.7% in 2026. Increased defence, infrastructure spending to significantly increase growth by the end of 2027. German exports will decline significantly in 2025, increase only slightly next year.
• Italian Stats Bureau ISTAT cut Italy’s 2025 GDP growth to 0.6% from 0.8% forecast in December.
• SNB noted that it does not engage in any manipulation of the CHF; does not seek to prevent adjustments in the balance of trade or to gain unfair competitive advantages for the Swiss economy. In addition, the use of FX market interventions may be necessary under certain circumstances to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. SNB monetary policy is geared towards the needs of Switzerland.

FX

• USD – USD is slightly firmer in what has ultimately been a week of losses for DXY. Attention now is firmly fixated on today’s NFP report which is set to see payroll growth slow to 130k from 177k and unemployment rate hold steady @ 4.2%. As it stands, the next 25bps cut is not fully priced until September with 54bps of loosening seen by year-end. DXY is towards the top end of yesterday’s 98.35-98.94 range.
• EUR – EUR is trivially softer vs. the USD after gaining yesterday on account of the ECB rate decision which saw policymakers pull the trigger on a 25bps rate cut, whilst noting that policy is “well-positioned”; suggesting that the ECB could be nearing or at the end of its cutting cycle. ECB speak this morning hasn’t shifted the dial with policymakers signalling flexibility going forward, whilst acknowledging progress on inflation. EUR/USD is contained within yesterday’s 1.1404-1.1495 range.
• JPY – JPY is the laggard across the majors following disappointing Household Spending data. Subsequently, USD/JPY briefly made its way back onto a 144 handle with a current session peak @ 144.13, stopping shy of the WTD high @ 144.39. On the trade front, Japan’s government said trade negotiator Akazawa met with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Akazawa strongly sought a review of US tariffs. Elsewhere, Japan’s former top FX diplomat says narrowing US-Japan rate gap will likely support the yen at around 135-140 against USD by year-end.
• GBP – GBP is softer vs. the broadly firmer USD with UK-specific newsflow on the light side ahead of next week’s UK spending review. On which, UK Chancellor Reeves reaffirmed she will not have a UK budget like October’s again, but can’t rule out any tax changes over the next four years. For today’s agenda, BoE Chief Economist Pill is due to speak @ 13:00BST, but given the subject matter of “AI and Households”, it is unclear how much he will touch on monetary policy. After printing a multi-year high yesterday @ 1.3616, Cable has since retreated and moved back below the 1.3550 mark.
• Antipodeans – Antipodeans are steady vs. the USD following a light data docket and relevant newsflow overnight. Both continue to keep an eye on US-Sino relations following the Xi-Trump call yesterday given their trade exposure. However, the readout had little follow-through into either currency. AUD/USD has moved back onto a 0.64 handle and pulled back from yesterday’s YTD peak @ 0.6538. NZD/USD has also retreated from yesterday’s YTD high @ 0.6080 but is still holding above the 0.60 mark.
• NBP’s Litwiniuk said they need to be cautious regarding the disinflation path; MPC can return to the subject of cuts in July or September; rates can still be cut by 100-125bps this year.

Treasuries

• USTs – USTs are a touch higher ahead of the US jobs report and following yesterday’s ECB-led losses which outmuscled a spike higher in weekly claims metrics. As it stands, the next 25bps cut is not fully priced until September with 54bps of loosening seen by year-end. Sep’25 USTs are currently within yesterday’s 110.23+ to 111.14+ range. From a yield perspective, the US curve is fractionally in bull flattening mode, whilst the 10yr yield has moved back to the 4.37% after venturing as low as 4.318% yesterday.
• Bunds – Bunds are attempting to atone for yesterday’s losses which were seen in the wake of the ECB rate decision. Sep’25 Bunds have been as high as 130.72 but are still some way away from yesterday’s peak @ 131.47. The 10yr yield is back below the 2.55% mark after climbing as high as 2.581% yesterday.
• Gilts – Gilts are currently being led by the upside in German paper as UK-specific newsflow remains light ahead of next week’s UK spending review. Sep’25 Gilts have been as high as 92.31 but still have some ground to cover before approaching yesterday’s best @ 92.63. The 10yr yield currently sits just above the 4.6% mark and within yesterday’s 4.557-4.648% range.

Commodities

• Crude Futures – Subdued trade amid a firmer Dollar and overall cautious risk tone heading into the US jobs report before the weekend. Contracts saw a leg lower likely on technicals as WTI dipped under USD 63.00/bbl at the same time as Brent fell under USD 65.00/bbl, although prices thereafter stabilised. News flow has been light for the complex, with nothing major to report in geopolitics either.
• Precious Metals – Spot gold and silver are largely treading water amid a lack of catalysts during the European morning in the run-up to the US jobs report. Spot gold currently resides in a current USD 3,351.49-3,375.29/oz range, well within yesterday’s USD 3,338.29-3,403.15/oz parameter.
• Base Metals – Mixed trade across base metals, in fitting with the cautious risk tone ahead of the US jobs report, with the Trump-Xi phone call doing little to keep broader prices underpinned during this session. 3M LME copper dipped back under USD 9,700/t to trade in a USD 9,659.00-9,768.00/t range at the time of writing. Dalian iron ore futures rose to a one-week peak overnight with traders citing strong Chinese demand coupled with some optimism following the Trump-Xi call, with the front-month contract ending daytime trade +0.9%.
• HSBC expects OPEC+ to accelerate supply hikes in August and September; weaker fundamentals after the summer, raise downside risks to the Bank’s USD 65/bbl brent forecast from Q425.
• LME has intervened to make Mercuria roll its “huge” position in aluminium, according to Bloomberg.
• India’s Mines Minister said exploring critical mineral assets in Australia, Argentina and Chile.
• EU Ags Commissioner said EU-Ukraine trade has reverted to conditions of pre-war trade deal, after the expiry of wartime exemptions; could conclude a longer-term trade arrangement by summer. New EU-Ukraine trade arrangement will be in between the quotas under pre-war trade deal and war-time exemptions

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel assured the US it won’t strike Iran unless talks fail, according to Axios.
• Iran is said to have ordered material from China that could make hundreds of ballistic missiles, according to Wall Street Journal.
• “Lebanese Army: Israel’s continued violation of the agreement may push us to freeze cooperation with the monitoring committee regarding site inspection”, via Al Hadath.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine said Russia launched a drone and missile attack with explosions and air defence activity heard over Kyiv.
• Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Ryabkov said returning to the arms control agreement with the US is becoming less and less realistic amid the US’ Golden Dome project.
• EU is weighing adding Russia to its money laundering ‘grey list’, according to FT.
• French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs hopes the European Commission will put new Russian sanctions package before the end of June, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: May Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 126k, prior 177k
• 8:30 am: May Change in Private Payrolls, est. 120k, prior 167k
• 8:30 am: May Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -4.5k, prior -1k
• 8:30 am: May Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
• 8:30 am: May Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: May Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 3.8%
• 3:00 pm: Apr Consumer Credit, est. 10b, prior 10.17b

Central Banks 

• 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Gives Speech on Supervision, Regulation

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets had a volatile session yesterday, as they grappled with a barrage of news that each pushed in different directions. Those included positive US-China headlines amid a call between Trump and Xi, a hawkish ECB decision and more weak data from the US. But the most remarkable was an extraordinary war of words between Trump and Elon Musk that ultimately left risks assets losing ground. Tesla’s shares plunged by -14.26%, while the S&P 500 fell -0.53% despite earlier briefly moving into technical bull market territory as it climbed just over +20% since its recent low on April 8.

The dramatic feud between the US President and the world’s richest man emerged after Trump said during a meeting with Germany’s chancellor Merz that he was “disappointed” and “surprised” in Musk’s recent criticism of the Republicans’ budget bill, with Musk responding on X by suggesting that Trump would have lost the election without his support. The war of words then escalated on social media, with Trump posting that “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts”, while Musk posted that Trump’s tariffs “will cause a recession in the second half of this year” and responded “yes” to a suggestion that Trump should be impeached.

Following the Trump-Musk spat, Tesla’s shares slumped -14.26%, which together with a -3.55% decline on Wednesday marked its worst two-day decline (-17.30%) since 2020. The feud also weighed on US risk assets more broadly, with the S&P 500 (-0.53%) seeing ten of its eleven sector groups move lower on the day. Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index rose +0.87pts to 18.48, having been earlier on course to fall to its lowest level since late March. The tech mood has stayed subdued overnight as Broadcom’s results delivered a lackluster revenue forecast. The chipmaker, which is now the 7th largest company in the S&P 500 and around $300bn of market cap ahead of Tesla, saw its shares slide by more than -4% after-hours. However S&P 500 (+0.25%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.14%) futures are edging higher, perhaps as Musk has started to suggest on X that he would be open to a cooling-off period in his war of words with the President.

Earlier on in the session we had seen a clear risk-on move on both sides of the Atlantic as a surprise Trump-Xi call raised the prospect of fresh US-China talks, leading to growing optimism that trade tensions would ease. The news of a call by Chinese state media led to an immediate jump in US equity futures. Shortly after, the rally got a further boost after Trump posted that it was “a very good phone call” which “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries.” In the post, it said that their respective teams would soon meet, and also that “There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products.” So that helped to boost market optimism, particularly after Trump had posted the previous day that Xi was “VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!”.

The trade headlines outweighed an initial negative reaction to the latest weekly US jobless claims, which added to fears that the US labour market was finally deteriorating after Liberation Day. Initial jobless claims (one of the most timely indicators we get) moved up to 247k in the week ending May 31 (vs. 235k expected), reaching their highest level since October. Moreover, that followed the very soft ADP report the previous day, which had private payrolls up by just +37k in May. The one caveat to the claims data is that seasonals tend to boost the number a bit at this time of the year. However it’s not the only evidence of a slightly weakening labour market. So that’s really heightened the focus on today’s jobs report for May, as any softness there would really magnify those fears. In terms of what to expect, our US economists forecast nonfarm payrolls to come in at +125k, dipping down from the +177k in March, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.

Those competing factors drove a big turnaround for US Treasuries yesterday. They initially fell back, with the 10yr yield hitting an intraday low of 4.31% just after the claims data. But the hawkish ECB decision and the Trump-Xi call led to a significant turnaround, with the 10yr yield ultimately closing up +3.7bps at 4.39%. The moves were even larger at the front-end of the curve, with the 2yr yield up +5.4bps to 3.92% as investors dialled back the likelihood of Fed rate cuts.
Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB was the biggest market driver yesterday. They cut rates by 25bps as expected, taking the deposit rate down to 2%. But significantly, President Lagarde signalled that they had “nearly concluded” the easing cycle, suggesting that policy rates weren’t likely to go much lower from here. She also signalled little urgency to cut rates, saying that the current level left them “in a good position to navigate the uncertain conditions that will be coming up.” As such, the ECB appears to be saying that it may have now reached the appropriate level of rates, a stronger message than a soft signal of a pause our European economists had expected. That said, our economists see expected soft growth in H2 and more significant disinflation than projected by the ECB as still favouring some further easing. See their full reaction here.

Lagarde’s comments immediately drove a clear market reaction, with another 25bp ECB cut now being less than fully priced, the 2yr German yield surging +7.8bps on the day and the euro itself strengthening +0.25%. Several other details also fed into the hawkish narrative, with the policy statement saying that although trade uncertainty would be a short-term drag, “rising government investment in defence and infrastructure will increasingly support growth over the medium term.” Later in the day, Bloomberg also reported that ECB officials thought a pause at the next meeting in July was the most likely scenario, with mixed views on whether another rate cut was likely after that. By the close, yields on 10yr bunds (+5.2bps), OATs (+4.7bps) and BTPs (+3.5bps) had all moved higher. Otherwise, equities ended the day higher with the STOXX 600 up +0.16%, but that was mainly thanks to the Trump-Xi call, as the index had been in negative territory after the hawkish ECB news.

In Asia markets are relatively subdued this morning. The Nikkei (+0.24%) has risen a little on weak Japanese economic data that might delay further rate hikes by the BOJ (more below). Meanwhile, the CSI (-0.12%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.06%) are struggling to gain traction while the Hang Seng (-0.21%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.19%) are seeing minor losses.

Coming back to Japan household spending (-0.1% y/y) unexpectedly fell in April, attributed to consumers curbing spending due to rising prices. This contrasted sharply with market expectations of a +1.5% gain following the previous month’s +2.1% increase.

Elsewhere yesterday, data showed the US trade deficit narrowed sharply to $61.6bn in April, reflecting the impact of the new tariffs. That was the smallest monthly deficit since September 2023, and a huge decline from the prior month’s $138.3bn trade deficit. Given that lower imports mechanically add to GDP, this is expected to lead to a strong bounceback in GDP for Q2 after the Q1 contraction. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow estimate is pointing to annualised growth of +3.8% in Q2.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for May. Over in Europe, there’s also Euro Area retail sales for April, and German and French industrial production for April. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Holzmann, Simkus and Centeno.

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Maybe there was a time—when I was a kid watching “The Jetsons”—when I fantasized about a walking, talking, productive robot in my house. It would do the laundry, the cooking, the cleaning, answer the door, walk the dog, dress the kids, make the bed, and so on.

Many companies, most notably Tesla, are working on this now. We see the prototypes all over social media. Artificial intelligence (AI) language models have made their speech very impressive. Their movements are looking ever more natural. They do seem to be on the way, and Elon Musk says they will be the biggest consumer product in history.

These days, I’m not so sure. In fact, the prospect seems absurd to me, destined to make our lives worse not better. Do we really need fewer routines and more excuses to sit and stare at our computers while machines do even more work for us?

Count me among the skeptics. We have been replacing household routines with machines for a century. Some have merit because the manual way is too arduous. I would rather have a vacuum cleaner than beat out rugs, even if the latter method is better in the long run. Same with dishwashers and washing machines. I get that they save time.

But there comes a point when it is all too much. The trigger for me was the “smart” lightbulb. That’s where I drew the line. I would rather stand up and turn it off and on than become nothing but a couch potato with a smartphone. There are reasons perhaps for the ability to remotely manage household temperature, but if I were building today, I would look long and hard for analog over digital thermostats.

After my decision to reject smart bulbs, I started de-digitizing my domestic space. No more home assistants. I can stand up and turn the volume on the speaker up and down with my fingers. I can look through a hole in the door to see who is there. I can walk to the car and turn it on. And so on. I also appreciate not being surrounded by tools of surveillance.

As this process unfolded, I began to realize something culturally insidious about all of these new technologies. They all teach us to regret however it is we are using our time except and to the extent we are frittering away our lives on digital devices. They teach us that everything else we are doing is a waste of time.

We are encouraged always to get things done faster and with ever less effort. Whatever we are doing is regrettable. Adopting a new tech means saving time and energy. But ask yourself: For what are we actually saving this time and energy? Very likely it is something else that you are supposed to regret.

This becomes a major attitude problem. It creates a culture of grumbling and discontent. That attitude invades our hearts and souls, so eventually the normal stream of life itself becomes nothing other than a big pain in the neck. This then fuels the consumer demand for ever more products that promise to do everything for us.

How many actual skills are we losing along the way? Plenty.

Quick story about how I had wax melted all over a linen cloth. I had no idea what to do about it. So I looked it up on Grok. The suggestion came in two parts. First, freeze the cloth and scrape off the excess with a credit card. Second, iron it with a hot iron with a brown bag or newspaper between the iron and cloth.

I did it and was utterly astounded. It worked like a dream.

I thought, “Thank goodness for AI for teaching me this amazing trick.”

But in talking with others about it, it turns out that this is not some great secret. This is how people have been removing wax from cloth for centuries.

Apparently, our grandfathers all knew this. But for me, I somehow missed out on that lesson. Now it can be part of my routines.

One wonders how much other knowledge is being lost as we turn over more and more parts of our lives to AI and robots. There is a genuine danger here of intellectual and spiritual atrophy. We should think about this carefully before we plunge full-on into a machine-run world.

Every new technology brings benefits, but also costs. Musical skill is evaporating in the home, for example, and has for decades. Most young people today have no idea how to iron. When inflation hit restaurants so hard a few years ago, many people had to learn how to cook for the first time.

Most people have no clue about how clothing comes to be washed without a machine and would not even know how to begin cleaning a pair of socks by soaking them in hot water. Instead, we think the machines do some mysterious magic inside a rumbling box.

This is not a case against streaming music or washing machines but only a heads-up that they come at the cost of our own capacity to manage our lives in their absence. We become less useful as human beings. That surely must be recognized as something to regret, even if only a bit.

We should be more aware of the way the product market thrives off feeding our disgruntlement. It’s not evil, and that’s the market at work. There’s always going to be a better mousetrap.

But we should still be aware of the effect on our lives and attitudes. There is merit and joy in simple routines such as cleaning, cooking, folding, walking the dog, standing up from time to time and doing things, and even gardening and hard work.

If we come to think of all these things as pointless expenditures of time and energy, better done by a machine, a major swath of our lives becomes nothing but drudgery.

This is all about the attitude we bring to routine tasks. If we go into them with a sense that someone or something else should be doing them, we have a downcast mind, do a sloppy job, and let our brains be invaded by all kinds of negative energy.

If you look at the same task as an opportunity to be scrupulous, to be useful, to achieve something with one’s own hands, to better our little part of the world, and to take pride in what we have done, the opposite happens. Our blues turn to joy, gradually over time.

As I’ve written, this is how farmers think. They rise early to feed the chickens, repair the fences, fix the water well, brush the horses, or whatever else, not with a sense that all of this is terrible but rather that this is how life is, its very essence. It is all about using one’s own energy to exercise some controlling and civilizing cooperative relationship with the natural world around us.

Most of us are not farmers, but we can adopt the same patience, persistence, and joy that they have, even if we are dealing with urban commutes, buying groceries, or keeping our homes and spaces clean and orderly. Or gardening. We don’t need robots for this. We can do this with our own hands.

Again, what precisely are we preparing to do with the time we supposedly save with all this automation and rushing around? If you think about it, you are probably merely doing something else that you are regretting just as much as the previous thing. Honestly, this is no way to live.

It’s all about the attitude we bring to the conduct of daily life. If we listen to the constant screams that our lives are miserable—that it is darn near slavery to fold clothes and do dishes—so we need robots to do things for us, the result will be sadness all around instead of a constant sense of achievement.

Maybe there is a role for these machines for the sick and infirm, just like autonomous driving can be a dream for those in no position to drive themselves. But as usual with new products, we have a tendency to wildly exaggerate their merits, believing that they will take away all the demons that surround us. When that doesn’t work, we turn to substances.

Buy a robot if you must, but it is just as crucial to learn and do so-called menial tasks with joy, if only to remind ourselves of the high place of the human person—ourselves—in the unfolding of our lives. Maybe we should stop spending money on toys that encourage us to believe that we are ever less useful as human beings.

Every new technology in the 21st century seems to go in the same direction: overpromised results, wild enthusiasm, roaring stock markets, release, disappointment, and finally reality. Remember the way we were all going to wear headsets and live in the Metaverse? That did not happen.

Similarly on robots for domestic use. I’m bearish. My intuition is that society has already seen peak techno-utopia and is now ready for a return to the physical world with all its beautiful routines, the mastery of which requires human hands.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tokyo-based ispace Inc.’s second uncrewed lunar landing attempt ended in failure on Friday, as its Resilience lander crashed during the final descent phase. The lunar mishap marks another setback for the Japanese firm.

“As of 8:00 a.m. on June 6, 2025, mission controllers have determined that it is unlikely that communication with the lander will be restored and therefore completing Success 9 is not achievable. It has been decided to conclude the mission,” ispace wrote on X. 

As of 8:00 a.m. on June 6, 2025, mission controllers have determined that it is unlikely that communication with the lander will be restored and therefore completing Success 9 is not achievable. It has been decided to conclude the mission.

“Given that there is currently no… pic.twitter.com/IoRUfggoiQ

— ispace (@ispace_inc) June 6, 2025

The mission, which was positioned as a pivotal moment for Japan’s entry into lunar exploration and a cornerstone for its commercial space ambitions, has sidelined moon missions from the company for now. The loss follows a failed 2023 mission due to a software error.

Meanwhile, Texas-based rivals Intuitive Machines Inc. and Firefly Aerospace Inc. have already achieved lunar landings. Firefly became the first private company to successfully land a functioning spacecraft on the moon in March, while Intuitive Machines managed a hard touchdown—but its lander lost functionality just hours later.

Ispace provided color on the sequence of events that led to the failed landing:

ispace engineers at the HAKUTO-R Mission Control Center in Nihonbashi, Tokyo, transmitted commands to execute the landing sequence at 3:13 a.m. on June 6, 2025. The RESILIENCE lander then began the descent phase. The lander descended from an altitude of approximately 100 km to approximately 20 km, and then successfully fired its main engine as planned to begin deceleration. While the lander’s attitude was confirmed to be nearly vertical, telemetry was lost thereafter, and no data indicating a successful landing was received, even after the scheduled landing time had passed.

Based on the currently available data, the Mission Control Center has been able to confirm the following: The laser rangefinder used to measure the distance to the lunar surface experienced delays in obtaining valid measurement values. As a result, the lander was unable to decelerate sufficiently to reach the required speed for the planned lunar landing. Based on these circumstances, it is currently assumed that the lander likely performed a hard landing on the lunar surface.

After communication with the lander was lost, a command was sent to reboot the lander, but communication was unable to be re-established.

In markets, iSpace shares in Tokyo crashed on Friday, closing down nearly 29%… What goes up must come down.

Earlier, Ispace CEO Takeshi Hakamada held a news conference following news of the failed landing attempt. He compared iSpace to SpaceX: “SpaceX has also failed several times, but now SpaceX occupies the launching market.”

Ispace CFO Jumpei Nozaki recently told CNN that the company has already secured funds for a third attempt at landing a craft on the lunar surface.  

As students weigh their post-secondary options, job prospects remain a key consideration.

Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti reports that new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, current as of May 2025, highlights which college degrees have the highest unemployment rates in the U.S. workforce.

For income, mid-career is defined as ages 35 to 45.

Anthropology Tops the List

At the top of the list is anthropology. Anthropology majors face an unemployment rate of 9.4%, the highest among the 20 fields analyzed.

Fine arts and sociology follow closely, with unemployment rates of 7.0% and 6.7%, respectively. These degrees tend to offer mid-career salaries around $70,000, placing them on the lower end of the earnings spectrum.

Interestingly, some of the highest-paying degrees also have relatively high unemployment rates.

For instance, computer engineering majors earn a median of $122,000 mid-career, but face a 7.5% unemployment rate. Physics ($100,000) and computer science ($115,000) also show above-average jobless rates, at 7.8% and 6.1%, respectively.

Meanwhile, several liberal arts degrees continue to show a mismatch between pay and employment. English language, history, and liberal arts majors typically earn between $70,000 and $77,000 mid-career, with unemployment rates ranging from 4.6% to 5.3%.

Communications and journalism degrees, which offer earnings closer to $85,000, show slightly lower unemployment levels, around 4.4% to 4.5%.

Other fields such as economics, political science, and international affairs offer stronger income potential—often exceeding $90,000 mid-career—but still face moderate unemployment rates, generally between 4.7% and 5.5%.

While salary remains a strong indicator of economic outcomes, these findings underscore that a higher paycheck doesn’t always guarantee job security.

As the labor market continues to evolve, prospective students may want to weigh both earning potential and employability in their education decisions.

If you enjoyed this graphic, check out this map on Voronoi about the income needed to buy a home in every U.S. state.