Ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, China and US have begun a fresh round of trade talks to set the stage for the main event. 

Trade negotiators led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks in Paris on Sunday to map out plans for a leaders’ summit later this month. The first day of the talks concluded around 6 pm local time, and the delegations will meet again on Monday, Bloomberg reported. The trade negotiators are expected to review the latest developments in a truce reached in November and discuss topics including the war in Iran as well as investment and purchases.

According to Bloomberg, Bessent, Greer and He have a history of bilateral negotiations. They met in Geneva last May to launch a series of talks that saw follow-on sessions in London, Stockholm, Madrid and Kuala Lumpur. That resulted in a truce under which Washington and Beijing lowered tariffs and export restrictions. Chinese Vice Finance Minister Liao Min and Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang are also at the talks. 

Bessent said on Thursday that his team will continue to deliver results that put America’s farmers, workers and businesses first. China’s commerce ministry said Friday the two sides are set to discuss “trade and economic issues of mutual concern.”

In January, Greer said the two sides could try to focus on reaching an agreement on trade in non-sensitive sectors in talks ahead of Trump’s visit to China.

The outcomes will set the stage for President Donald Trump’s trip to China from March 31 to April 2, the first visit by an American president to Beijing in nearly a decade.

The talks also marks the first time the two sides are meeting since the US Supreme Court ruled Trump didn’t have the authority to impose tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — a tool he used to threaten levies as high as 145% on China.

The Trump administration has since introduced an across-the-board tariff of 10% and vowed to recreate parts of its tariff wall using other authorities. Greer kicked off the process of imposing tariffs under his agency’s Section 301 authority by initiating an investigation into allegations of industrial overcapacity and forced labor practices for several economies, including China.

Trump’s visit to China will be the first for a U.S. president since he went in his first term in 2017. It will come five months after the two leaders met in the South Korean city of Busan and agreed to a one-year truce in a trade war that temporarily saw tit-for-tat tariffs soar to triple digits before the two sides climbed down. 

Still, trade remains a source of tensions. The commerce ministry on Friday hit back against the Trump administration’s new trade investigation into 16 trading partners, including China. The investigation – which came after a Supreme Court ruling struck down Trump’s sweeping global tariffs that were imposed last year – could pave the way for new tariffs.

Another issue that could be discussed is the Iran war, especially when global anxiety is soaring over oil prices and supplies. Trump said Saturdaythat he hopes China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and others will send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz “open and safe.”

Before Sunday’s talks, Gary Ng, a senior economist at French bank Natixis and a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, said the Paris meeting is likely the most important bilateral one before the Xi-Trump summit.

The key issue is “whether China and the U.S. can agree on what is agreed and manage disagreement. Iran is a new factor, but Beijing is more concerned about the flip-flopping of U.S. policies,” he said.

Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it would be a “big year” for China-U.S. relations. While he did not confirm the state visit, Wang said that “the agenda of high-level exchange is already on the table.”

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Energy Secretary Chris Wright on March 13 directed the Texas-based oil company Sable Offshore Corp. to restore operations in water off southern California.

Wright invoked the Defense Production Act to restore the company’s Santa Ynez Unit and Pipeline System near Santa Barbara to address supply disruption risks that “have left the region and U.S. military forces dependent on foreign oil,” according to a Department of Energy news release.

“The Trump Administration remains committed to putting all Americans and their energy security first,” Wright said in a statement.

“Unfortunately, some state leaders have not adhered to those same principles, with potentially disastrous consequences not just for their residents, but also our national security.

“Today’s order will strengthen America’s oil supply and restore a pipeline system vital to our national security and defense, ensuring that West Coast military installations have the reliable energy critical to military readiness.”

Officials said Sable Offshore Corp.’s facility can replace nearly 1.5 million barrels of foreign-sourced crude oil each month by producing roughly 50,000 barrels per day, resulting in a 15 percent increase to California’s oil production.

The Energy Department noted that the state used to supply nearly 40 percent of the nation’s oil production, with more than 60 percent of the oil refined in California now coming from overseas, including through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz.

This presents “serious national security threats,” the agency said.

Officials also said that restoring Sable Offshore’s operations will “create hundreds of additional American energy jobs while generating millions in local economic activity.”

The action follows President Donald Trump’s executive order from early last year, which reversed former President Joe Biden’s ban on offshore oil drilling on the West and East coasts.

Biden’s effort to shut down 625 million acres of federal waters from oil production was later struck down by a federal court.

Restoring oil production in Southern California comes weeks after the United States joined Israel in coordinated air strikes on Iran, igniting war in the Middle East. Iran has retaliated by striking oil fields and refineries in its Gulf state neighbors, and by shutting down the critical Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world’s oil travels.

Oil prices have skyrocketed to just over $98 per barrel by March 15, the highest level since oil climbed in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom criticized the Trump administration for ordering the restoration of oil drilling off the state’s coast, arguing the Sable Offshore pipeline would only increase total oil production by 0.05 percent and have “no impact on lowering global oil prices.”

“Donald Trump started a war, admitted it would spike gas prices nationwide, and told Americans it was a small price to pay. Now he’s using this crisis of his own making to attempt what he’s wanted to do for years: open California’s coast for his oil industry friends so they can poison our beaches. This wouldn’t lower prices by a cent,” Newsom said in a statement.

“This is an attempt to illegally restart a pipeline whose operators are facing criminal charges and prohibited by multiple court orders from restarting.”

The governor said California would fight the effort in court.

The pipeline was responsible for an oil spill in 2015 in which more than 100,000 gallons of crude oil spilled onshore near Refugio State Beach in Santa Barbara County.

Roughly 21,000 gallons of oil seeped into the Pacific Ocean, and thousands of birds and marine mammals died.

The incident resulted in a $23.3 million settlement and closed 138 square miles of fisheries for multiple weeks.

The Trump administration is poised to receive roughly $10 billion in payments from investors involved in the recently completed transaction to take control of TikTok’s U.S. operations, delivering an unusual financial windfall tied to the government’s role in keeping the popular social-media platform active in the United States.

The payments are part of the arrangement under which a consortium of admin-aligned investors took control of TikTok’s American business from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter. The payments are separate from the capital investors committed to establish a new entity that now operates the platform in the U.S.

Backers of the deal include cloud-computing firm Oracle, private-equity company Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi investor MGX. Those investors and others have already paid the U.S. Treasury about $2.5 billion when the transaction closed in January and are expected to make additional payments until the total reaches about $10 billion, the people said.

President Trump had previously signaled the government expected compensation for facilitating the arrangement. When outlining the framework for the deal in September, he said the United States would receive a “tremendous fee-plus” for its role in allowing the transaction to proceed.

“It hasn’t been fully negotiated, but we’ll get something,” Trump said at the time, arguing that the government’s involvement in securing the agreement justified compensation.

The $10 billion payment would be nearly unprecedented for a government helping arrange a transaction, historians have said. Vice President JD Vance previously said the new TikTok entity running the U.S. operations is valued at about $14 billion in the deal, which some tech analysts have said dramatically undervalues the company. 

As part of the agreement, the U.S. entity has to share profits with ByteDance, which licensed its popular algorithm to the new venture so it could be fully trained on Americans and still owns nearly 20%. -WSJ

Under the terms of the arrangement, ByteDance licensed TikTok’s recommendation algorithm to the new American venture, allowing the platform to continue operating with its core technology. ByteDance retains nearly a 20% ownership stake and will receive a share of the new entity’s profits.

Administration officials have defended the fee, saying it reflects Trump’s role in preserving TikTok’s U.S. operations while negotiating with China and addressing national-security concerns raised by lawmakers.

The transaction stems from legislation requiring TikTok’s U.S. business to reduce ByteDance’s ownership or face a shutdown. Lawmakers from both parties had expressed concern that Chinese control of the platform could expose sensitive data on millions of American users.

The TikTok arrangement is part of a broader pattern in which the administration has sought financial stakes or compensation in dealings involving major corporations. The government has taken a nearly 10% stake in Intel and negotiated an agreement to receive a share of chip sales to China from Nvidia in exchange for export licenses.

The administration has also secured influence over the operations of U.S. Steel through a “golden share” agreement tied to its takeover by Japan’s Nippon Steel.

Together, the moves signal a more direct government role in major corporate transactions – one that, in the case of TikTok, could result in one of the largest payments ever associated with a government-facilitated deal.

Takeaways

• France held the first round of municipal elections on Sunday in nearly 35,000 municipalities, serving as an initial indicator of political momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

• Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is seeking to expand its limited local presence, with ambitions focused on southern cities such as Perpignan, Marseille, Nice and Toulon.

• Pre-vote polls suggested competitive races in key targets, but full first-round results and projections are emerging gradually after polls closed, with many larger cities expected to head to a March 22 runoff.

• Turnout at 17:00 CET was estimated at 48.9%, up from 2020 but below 2014 levels; final estimates around 56-58% at 20:00 CET.

French voters went to the polls Sunday in the first round of municipal elections, casting ballots for mayors and councilors in a vote widely viewed as an early gauge of support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and other parties ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

The two-round system means most small municipalities will see winners decided Sunday if they secure over 50% of the vote, while larger cities, where no candidate typically reaches an absolute majority – advance to a March 22 runoff. Parties have until Tuesday evening to negotiate alliances, withdrawals or pacts that will shape final outcomes.

The RN, which leads national polls for 2027 (with Le Pen or Jordan Bardella as potential candidates, pending Le Pen’s ongoing EU funds embezzlement appeal), has historically struggled to secure mayoral seats despite strong national performances. The party currently holds only about a dozen cities, with Perpignan (population ~122,000) as its largest stronghold under incumbent Louis Aliot.

Pre-election polling and RN strategy highlighted southern France as a priority area for expansion:

• In Perpignan, Aliot was favored to secure re-election, potentially outright or with a strong first-round lead, based on surveys showing him well ahead of fragmented opposition.

• In Marseille (France’s second-largest city), RN candidate Franck Allisio polled closely with incumbent Socialist Mayor Benoît Payan (around 32-35% range in surveys), setting up a potential multi-way runoff if the left fragments (e.g., with France Unbowed’s Sébastien Delogu qualifying).

• In Nice (fifth-largest), RN ally Éric Ciotti (from his UDR group) held strong pre-vote polling positions against incumbent Christian Estrosi.

• In Toulon and surrounding areas, RN’s Laure Lavalette was seen as competitive in a region where the party has parliamentary dominance.

These targets reflect RN’s aim to build grassroots infrastructure – more councilors and mayors for voter mobilization – and test the fraying “Republican Front” (cross-party efforts to block the far right). A symbolic win in a major southern city would mark a breakthrough, though municipal dynamics (local issues like security, public services, drug trafficking and economy) differ from national ones.

On the left, divisions between Socialists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed persist, while centrists and the center-right face challenges in places like Paris (Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire frontrunning amid Rachida Dati and others) and Le Havre (Édouard Philippe defending his seat).

Turnout figures showed modest engagement: ~19% at midday in some reports, rising to 48.9% at 17:00 CET nationwide (higher than 2020’s pandemic-affected 38.77% but down from 2014). Final estimates hovered around 56-58% at 20:00 CET.

No comprehensive first-round results or nationwide projections were available immediately after polls closed (between 18:00 and 20:00 CET depending on the area), as counting begins progressively. Early partial tallies from smaller communes may appear soon, but major-city suspense – and any RN progress – will likely clarify overnight or into Monday, with runoffs deciding many high-profile races.

Le Pen, meanwhile, has been courting old money – though there appears to be some friction. As the Straits Times reports: 

A new circle of advisers with elite pedigrees is asserting influence, adopting what some National Rally officials describe as a “know-it-all” style that grates on the old guard.

Courting high society risks alienating the base who fuelled the party’s rise and that has long been wary of financiers and high-powered networks, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The internal friction comes at a pivotal moment, with the party leading polls roughly a year before the next presidential election, and just as France heads into its two-round municipal vote on March 15 and March 22 – an early test of the party’s electability. 

As Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella navigate the treacherous path to 2027, the National Rally’s calculated pivot toward France’s corporate and old-money elite – through technocratic advisers and pro-business overtures – represents both its greatest opportunity and its most potent risk. While these bridges could deliver funding, credibility, and a veneer of governability that has long eluded the party, they threaten to erode the populist authenticity that propelled its rise among working-class and disaffected voters. With the municipal elections offering an early, localized litmus test of the RN’s mainstreaming efforts, the coming days and weeks will reveal whether Le Pen’s “de-demonization” strategy can reconcile these worlds – or whether the old guard’s warnings prove prescient, leaving the party close to power yet still unable to seize it

Via the AIX Files,

Years ago, I was working on the editorial side for what was then a hot new media company, and found myself spending more and more time with Johan, the lead programmer, and his team, asking them a lot of annoying questions as it was all so new – certainly to me. I was standing over Johan’s left shoulder, mesmerized by whatever new video game he was obsessing over that week…when suddenly, out of nowhere, a spreadsheet and a pie chart appeared on his screen.

“Whatcha got there, Johan?” asked Jim, Johan’s boss, peering over a sheaf of print-outs as he sharked past the cubicle.

“Hey, just looking at some numbers,” Johan replied. Johan had hit the “game key” in the nick of time – in those days, every video game had a game key – ALT-G if memory serves – calling up a slight variation of the same spreadsheet and pie chart.

This would never happen today. First, you’re probably not working in a cubicle, and if you are, it’s not the game key you’d hit to give your boss the impression that you’re actually doing productive work…it would be the “AI key.”

“Tech Firms Aren’t Just Encouraging Their Workers to Use AI. They’re Enforcing It.”

This article appeared in the February 24 edition of the Wall Street Journal. It includes the subtitle: From startups to giants, including Meta and Google, companies are factoring AI use into performance reviews and trying to track productivity gains

Across industries, companies are now enforcing AI use through performance reviews, dashboards that track adoption, and explicit mandates that tie it to compensation and promotion. What began in Silicon Valley has rapidly spread to consulting firms, banks, manufacturers, hospitals, and even government agencies.

As you’d expect, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft were the first to move from encouragement to enforcement. Employees at these firms now see AI usage metrics appear in quarterly reviews. Non-adopters have reported stalled promotions or explicit warnings that “AI fluency” is a core competency (The Wall Street Journal, Feb 2026, reporting on internal policies).

The trend has jumped sectors. PwC requires every consultant to complete an “AI + Human Skillset” curriculum and incorporates usage into evaluations (Business Insider, Feb 5, 2026). Colgate-Palmolive’s “AI evangelist” tracks adoption across global teams. Major banks have begun tying bonuses to the number of AI-assisted analyses completed. Even some hospitals now require doctors and nurses to use AI-assisted diagnostic tools for certain procedures.

Why the shift to mandates?

Executives cite three main drivers: intense competitive pressure to keep pace with rivals, investor demands for visible returns on massive AI investments, and internal data showing that voluntary adoption plateaus at around 30–40% of employees. “We’ve made it clear: AI is no longer optional. Every employee is expected to use it, and it’s now part of how we evaluate performance,” said Accenture CEO Julie Sweet (Fortune, March 2026).

The claimed benefits are real…on paper. Early internal metrics at several companies show 10–25% gains in task speed for routine work. Cross-functional teams using AI report faster ideation and fewer silos. But the drawbacks and unintended consequences are mounting.

While mandatory AI adoption offers productivity benefits, recent research reveals significant drawbacks that undermine organizational health.

• Surveillance and autonomy erosion. By 2025, 70% of large companies monitor employee activity, with 68% of employees opposing AI-powered surveillance and 59% saying digital tracking damages workplace trust. AI monitoring systems now track keystroke patterns, mouse movements, email content, and even biometric data, including stress levels. Amazon employees report that surveillance creates “fear and anxiety, which creates a dangerous work environment”.

• Burnout and intensified demands. AI meant to reduce workload is paradoxically accelerating burnout. Research found that AI leads to fatigue, burnout, and a growing sense that work is harder to step away from as organizational expectations for speed rise. A South Korean study shows AI adoption significantly increases job stress and burnout, while 63% of workers report AI-related fatigue driven by stress and heavy workloads.

• Collapsing trust. Recent research revealed that while AI usage jumped 13% in 2025, worker confidence plummeted 18%, creating a “toxic relationship” as employees receive tools without training or support. Deloitte’s TrustID Index showed trust in company-provided generative AI fell 31% between May and July 2025, with trust in agentic AI systems dropping 89%.

• Retention risks. Without adequate training, 56% of workers receive no recent skills development despite widespread AI adoption, and 85% say they would be more loyal to employers investing in continuing education – top performers become increasingly vulnerable to departure. Analysis warns of an impending “seniority cliff” as companies that stop hiring juniors eliminate the pipeline for developing senior talent with deep institutional knowledge.

Critics argue the enforcement model is shortsighted. 

“You can force usage, but you can’t force wisdom,” said Dr. Ethan Mollick, professor at the Wharton School and author of Co-Intelligence (interview, March 2026). “When AI becomes compulsory, people stop experimenting and start complying — and that’s when the real mistakes happen.” Yet the train has left the station. In boardrooms and earnings calls, executives are increasingly judged on how aggressively they have embedded AI into daily operations.

The message is clear: in 2026, using AI is part of your job. The question companies are only beginning to confront is whether forcing the technology will ultimately make their workforces more cohesive, smarter, and more efficient, or simply more exhausted, distrustful, and replaceable.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

One thing that has become incredibly consistent during times of financial stress is all of the “green dots” on Bloomberg terminals on Sunday night. This Sunday night is likely to be no different.

There are plenty of questions being asked (at a presentation on Thursday at a conference in Vegas, I may have, for the first time, faced too many questions!). There will be time to figure out how we got here. What went right, what went according to plan, and what didn’t go so well. But now is not the time for that, at least not for investors and corporate decision makers. Now is the time to plan, adapt, and ensure the best possible outcome for what you are responsible for.

The U.S. attacked military installations on Kharg Island on Friday night after the markets closed. Kharg Island is crucial for Iranian oil exports. It has the deep seaports required to load cargo into tankers that then deliver it. However, no energy infrastructure was hit, only military targets (including mine and missile storage facilities). President Trump then threatened to “wipe out” oil infrastructure on Kharg Island if Iranian forces continued to block the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, on Friday, it was announced that the U.S. was sending more forces to the region. The Japan-based Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group includes the America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ships USS New Orleans and USS San Diego, and the embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. Sending these capabilities to the Persin Gulf will provide CENTCOM with additional options. These forces could be used in maritime interdiction, coastal raids, and help secure targets such as Kharg Island as well as islands in the Strait. This would put additional pressure on Iran. However, the decision to use troops for these missions has not been made just yet. It will also take a week or two for the forces to make it to the region. Please see below for some thoughts on these developments from our Geopolitical Intelligence Group:

“The strike on Kharg Island serves two purposes. First, there is military infrastructure on the island which may well have been involved somehow in enabling Iranian strike operations in the northern Persian Gulf. More importantly, however, it is a signal to the Iranian regime that we are willing, if necessary, to attack the oil infrastructure there. Iran exports around 90% of its oil through the Kharg Island terminal and its loss would be devastating for Iran’s economy. The possible future damage or destruction of the facilities there also effectively removes Iranian oil from the global market for a long time and will certainly have an effect on the market. I’m only speculating here but threatening Kharg Island might also be aimed at pressuring China, which is the recipient of most of Iran’s oil, to exert some positive influence on the regime.”– Neil Wiley, Former Principal Executive, Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“The deployment of the MEU provides the U.S. with more options and serves as a deterrent against further Iranian escalation. Last night’s strikes and the deployment of the MEU signal to Iran that the U.S. is setting conditions to potentially take the island. However, the administration is clearly trying to prevent further rattling of the oil market by preserving Kharg’s oil infrastructure. I think the preferred options all involve scenarios short of boots on the ground anywhere in the region but that may not be sufficient to secure the concessions/conciliation the U.S. wants from Iran. Unfortunately, the Iranian regime still seems committed to outlasting the U.S.’s tolerance for market worry.”– Admiral Kelly Aeschbach

There are ongoing operations (and presumably back-channel negotiations) occurring as you read this. They will not necessarily end on Sunday night, but by Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have a clearer understanding of where things stand.

Today’s quick note builds on Thursday’s SITREP – Iran Continues to Threaten the Strait of Hormuz.

A few things we do “know.”

• Markets are fixated on what is or isn’t transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

  • As far as we “know” the Strait is passable. There is no physical obstruction blocking ships from transiting it. This has been accomplished by some ships, presumably those laden with Iranian oil destined for their customers, such as China.

    • There are some questions about mines and unmanned/manned surface vessels.

    • There are a LOT of questions about potential drone and missile strikes.

    • The insurance backed by the DFC (The U.S. International Development Finance Corp.), has not encouraged ships to transit. I haven’t been able to access the policy itself, but insurance alone is not going to get ships and their crews moving.

• The story is moving beyond oil. Yes, oil gets the most attention, but it is only part of the story.

  • LNG is less fungible than oil and is likely the first product that causes major disruptions in economies. Diesel, jet fuel, and fertilizers aren’t far behind.

  • Downstream products like “plastics” may become a problem for supply chains. It is difficult to predict who or what will be hit (like we have seen in previous supply chain shocks), but with plastics in so many products, we may be in for some negative surprises.

  • Taiwan is dependent on imported LNG and helium (about 50% coming from Qatar), and this is becoming a topic of conversation. When one of the world’s most important countries in terms of making semiconductors enters the conversation, it makes sense to be a little more nervous.

  • Asia (ex-China) and Europe will be hit first. China has significant stockpiles, refining capacity, and has further restricted exports of refined products. “Force Majeure” seems to be the word of the week in Asia outside of China. Europe went from dependence on Russia to dependence on the Middle East. Maybe adopting ProSec™ and harnessing your own resources (even if not “carbon efficient”) isn’t a bad stop gap for the next decade or so.

  • Shutdowns are occurring. When you “shut down” a refinery or chemical processing facility, it is not like flicking a light switch. There is a controlled (and time-consuming process) in both directions. It can take a week or more to resume production at full capacity once the decision to start back up is made. This means that the more facilities that are shutdown, the further we are from “normalizing” quickly.

• “Simple” solutions aren’t helping.

  • Government “messaging” has lost its ability to turn markets on a dime. Last Monday we recovered rapidly from Sunday’s overnight price pressures. Every announcement on the conflict, the steps to reduce oil prices, etc., were met with good responses (lower oil prices, higher stock prices). That “mojo” dried up by the end of the week – hence we need to see “solutions.”

  • If it was “just” about the price of oil, the release of the SPR, evidence that the Saudis are able to use a pipeline to redirect their shipping routes, etc., would all have worked out better than it did for markets coming into the weekend. I do not understand the “waffling” or what seems like “waffling” on suspending at least part of the Jones Act so that the U.S. can supply itself more easily. That sentence seems almost nonsensical, but yes, the Jones Act makes it more difficult for parts of the U.S. to support other parts of the U.S.

  • The longer it goes on, the worse it is for the global economy and markets.

What we don’t know:

• The risk to oil (and LNG, fertilizer, downstream products, and food) shipments. We will be able to make a better assessment on Sunday and again on Monday morning as markets re-open.

• It seems clear that the admin is pushing to “normalize” trade and transit as early as Monday, but we don’t yet know if they will be successful.

• What will the economic issues be? Very difficult to predict, though Asia (ex-China) and Europe will likely be hit harder and faster than the U.S. and China. However, many “American” goods are manufactured in Asia and certainly require components from Asia.

• The timing of “victory.” The definition of “victory” seems to be “evolving.” If a hostile regime that is responsible for over a thousand American deaths over the years can be brought down and the world has a few weeks of higher energy costs and some “manageable” supply chain issues as a result, then the price is probably “worth it.” Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group does not seem concerned about losing, but it is a matter of timing and the cost of that victory in terms of blood and treasure, and that is the question they are all trying to answer.

Bottom Line

Hopefully by Sunday night, or Monday morning, we are watching oil trade down hard and stocks (and bonds) rally. But at this point It remains a hope, not a fact. We will try to evaluate where we stand, how markets should respond, and what is “next” on the table for the U.S. (based on what happens between now and then).

Bonds are not acting as a good hedge – spending fears (globally) and inflation (globally) are pushing on that. I do not see stagflation as a “steady state,” or even that plausible in an energy independent America, but too early to fight that chatter.

We want to write about Private Credit and Software (the two other market-driving forces), but for today, we will stick to this “preparatory note” as we set the stage to provide color and context as we start next week (which is really at 6pm ET Sunday when futures open).

We continue to hope and offer our best wishes to all involved in this conflict, especially to those in service and their families, in these incredibly stressful times.

Summary:

• Iranian retaliation accelerates, including use of cluster munitions, especially against Israel

• Gulf countries reported new attacks Sunday morning, a day after Iran called for the evacuation of three major ports in the United Arab Emirates.

• Iran says it targeted U.S. forces at Saudi base with missiles

• Israel reportedly running low on missile interceptors

• Iran arrests dozens accused of spying for Israel amid escalating conflict

• World’s largest Aluminum smelter shutdown

• Araghchi said the strait was only shut to US ships and those of its allies

• Trump not ready to reach a deal with Iran yet

Days after President Trump told reporters that Iran has “shot everything they have to shoot” and has “nothing left,” Iran continues to rain retaliatory fire down on the region. Amid fresh imagery of fires burning around Tel Aviv, Saturday also brought a report that the Israel Defense Forces are running critically low on missile interceptors.

Meanwhile, in another indication that what was supposed to be a speedy, regime-change-triggering attack on Iran is mushrooming into a conflict consuming much of the region, the US government is urging every one of its citizens in Iraq to flee Iraq as quickly as possible. That advisory comes after a second damaging assault was carried out by Iran-allied militias against the American embassy in Baghdad. 

Fire, smoke rise at US Embassy Baghdad after drone strike pic.twitter.com/hU4XHl6wCr

— Roya News English (@RoyaNewsEnglish) March 14, 2026

Citing unnamed US officials, Semafor reported that Israel informed its American partners that its ballistic missile interceptor supply was critically low. Both US and Israeli supplies had been severely diminished in last summer’s 12-day war on Iran — with the Pentagon burning through a quarter of its THAAD interceptors. It appears the two countries had launched this year’s surprise attack on the false assumption that the resulting warfare would be brief. One of the officials claimed that American supplies were not running low, but US forces reportedly used interceptors valued at $2.4 billion in just the first five days after attacking Iran.  

Working to run down the IDF’s interceptor supplies even faster, Iran has increasingly been using cluster munitions in its attacks on Israel. These release 24 to 80 11-pound bomblets at high altitude, making interception all the more difficult. Over Saturday night, more mayhem rained down on Israel from Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. While Israeli censorship and AI make it challenging to find authentic imagery, Grok says this is legit: 

🇮🇱 Israeli media:

An Iranian missile has fallen in Ramla, in the Greater Tel Aviv area. pic.twitter.com/pXoomzZ0R7

— China live (@ChinaliveX) March 15, 2026

Earlier on Saturday, the US embassy in Iraq came under fire, and the Kataib Hezbollah militia claimed responsibility. In January, the group’s chief warned the United States against attacking Iran, saying, “We affirm to the enemies that war against the [Islamic] Republic will not be a walk in the park. But rather, you will taste the bitterest forms of death, and nothing will remain of you in our region.” No injuries were reported in Saturday’s attack.The Emirati consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan was also hit — the second strike in the last week. 

Two Iraqi security officials told AP that a helipad at the US compound was hit. While AP’s sources said the strike used “missiles,” Agence France-Presse said the militia used a drone. Video also showed a structure atop an embassy building was set ablaze. Comparing the video to pre-attack imagery, observers concluded the structure was a radome — a weatherproof shell covering radar and communications equipment.  A nearby Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) system, which spews 20mm or 35mm rounds at incoming fire, appeared to have been unscathed. However, to the extent the C-RAM relied on the equipment in the radome, its usefulness may have been diminished if not neutralized.

IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES US EMBASSY IN IRAQ, TAKES OUT HIGH-END RADAR — Clash Report/MenchOsint report pic.twitter.com/3nkTIVbuxh

— RT (@RT_com) March 14, 2026

After the attack, the State Department told Americans to get out of the country. “U.S. citizens should leave Iraq now,” said the US State Department in a security alert. Noting that Iraqi airspace is closed and commercial flights unavailable, the advisory told endangered Americans to use “overland routes to Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.” It also warned about violent protests against the US government, and said “terrorist militia groups have encouraged and conducted indiscriminate attacks on U.S. citizens.”  

In another Saturday development, Trump used claimed that other countries “will be sending War Ships” to the region to “keep the Strait [of Hormuz] open and safe.” However, after saying “will,” he meagerly applied the word “hopefully” to the notion that China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK and others” would commit naval assets. Italy’s Meloni has already declared her country “won’t be part of an illegal war,” and there’s no indication any other country is about to send their ships into an Iranian gauntlet guarded by cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones and armed speedboats.  

https://t.co/kLmAe596oN pic.twitter.com/iRg1By7wlO

— Joe (@JoePostingg) March 14, 2026

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said late Saturday they had launched a missile salvo at U.S. forces stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base, a major base in Saudi Arabia’s Al-Kharj that has long hosted U.S. forces.

The Guards said the base was being used to equip “F-35 and F-16 fighter jets and is the storage place for fuel tankers.”

While there has been no immediate confirmation of the attack from Saudi Arabia, the kingdom’s defense ministry said earlier it intercepted six ballistic missiles headed towards Al-Kharj.

Aluminium Bahrain BSC, which runs the world’s largest single-site smelter of the metal, started a phased production shutdown to preserve raw materials.

The company, known as Alba, said it has initiated a shutdown of three production lines, which together represent 19% of its total output capacity of 1.6 million tons a year.

Dozens of people accused of collaborating with Israel have been apprehended across various regions of Iran, local media reported on Sunday, amid ongoing Israeli and US airstrikes targeting the country.

As The Independent reports, in northwestern Iran, the semi-official Tasnim news agency stated that 20 people were arrested after being accused by the provincial prosecutor’s office of transmitting location data on Iran’s military and security assets to Israel. Further east, in a region largely untouched by the recent air campaign, Tasnim also reported the arrest of 10 individuals, some of whom are alleged to have gathered intelligence on sensitive sites and economic infrastructure.

A provincial branch of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence organisation commented on the situation, according to Tasnim: “As the Zionist enemy (Israel) and the U.S. are attempting to invade Iran, they simultaneously activate mercenaries and spies to carry out riots as the next step.”

President Trump said Iran is ready to make a deal to end the war but the US wants better terms, signaling no letup in a war that’s brought shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill and upended energy markets. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has insisted that Tehran has not requested a ceasefire or sought negotiations with Washington, saying that the country will continue defending itself amid the ongoing war with the US and Israel. He also added that Iran’s nuclear facilities are now buried deep under rubble, and Tehran has no plans “for now “to retrieve enriched nuclear material, adding that any future effort would take place under the supervision of the “agency,” likely referring to the IAEA: perhaps another tentative olive branch.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the regime is not in a war of survival, telling @margbrennan the regime is “stable and strong enough.”

“We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us, and… pic.twitter.com/AQdyeWBiFu

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 15, 2026

Separately, Kevin Hassett revealed this morning on CBS’ Face the Nation that the US has spent $12 billion on the war so far. And in the clearest sign of what Trump’s “red line” to end the war is, Hassett said that Trump would call an end to the war if Iran is no longer able to “blackmail” with its control over energy flows.

Hassett also said that the futures markets indicate a rapid end to the “situation” (unclear where he got this, the backwardated oil curve is hardly the indicator he thinks it is), while the Dept of War believed as of yesterday that the war in Iran will likely last 4-6 weeks; he said that US GDP is unlikely to go negative with a 1970s-like oil shock, and predicted that the war is not going to last for months, but if it does, the US has “lots and lots of energy” that can come online.

HASSETT: The latest number I was briefed on is $12 billion

BRENNAN: $12 billion for six weeks of war?

HASSETT: No, I’m sorry. The $12 billion was what I was briefed has been spent so far. pic.twitter.com/osidIvmklN

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 15, 2026

Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic Republic hasn’t asked for talks or a ceasefire. “We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us, and that was for the second time,” he said in an interview aired Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation.

And perhaps most notably, Araghchi said the strait was only shut to US ships and those of its allies. There have been 16 reported attacks on vessels in and around Hormuz since the war began, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations.

“We welcome any regional initiative that leads to a fair end to the war,” he told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, in a rare sign of a possible shift in stance from Iran, where officials have previously said they could sustain the conflict for months. “Ending the war is conditional on guarantees that it won’t be repeated and on the payment of compensation.”

In a bombshell Saturday monologue, conservative commentator Tucker Carlson alleged that the CIA has been monitoring his private text messages as part of an effort to frame him for a crime and trigger a criminal referral to the Department of Justice (DOJ). 

“The other day I found out that the CIA is preparing some kind of criminal referral against me, a crime report to the Department of Justice on the basis of a supposed crime I committed. What’s that crime? Well, talking to people in Iran before the war. They read my texts,” Carlson said, adding that the alleged violation under consideration involves the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), the 1938 law requiring individuals acting on behalf of foreign governments or entities to register with the DOJ and disclose their activities. Carlson emphatically denied any wrongdoing, insisting he is not a foreign agent and remains loyal to the United States.

Carlson emphatically denied any wrongdoing, insisting he is not a foreign agent, has never taken money or direction from any foreign power, and remains fully loyal to the United States. He described the surveillance as politically motivated retaliation against critics of official foreign-policy narratives.

He also said this is not the first time U.S. intelligence has targeted his private communications – recalling well-known 2021 incident from his Fox News days, when he says the NSA intercepted and leaked his text messages while he was attempting to land an interview with Vladimir Putin. Those messages made their way from US intel to the New York Times in what Carlson called an effort to discredit him and potentially get his show canceled. 

When you discover the CIA has been reading your texts in order to frame you for a crime. pic.twitter.com/XgoluHw8EG

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) March 14, 2026

The claim comes amid heightened tensions following the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. Carlson framed the surveillance as politically motivated, suggesting intelligence agencies are weaponizing communications with foreign contacts against domestic critics.

The latest from the rumor mill on this is that Trump used Tucker as a useful idiot back-channel to deceive the Iranians into thinking we were cool.

If the CIA knew that he was talking to the Iranians, then President Trump would have known that also, when he invited Tucker into the Oval a few days before the strike.

Which means Trump may have used Tucker to deceive the Iranians about the likelihood of an impending attack https://t.co/TkbjY34js4

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) March 15, 2026

Loomer Loving It

The revelation immediately drew fire from pro-Israel / pro-Iran-war activist Laura Loomer, a vocal Trump supporter and longtime critic of Carlson, who is anti-war and anti-Zionist. Loomer, who has repeatedly accused Carlson of pro-Islamic sympathies, being a “virulent Jew hater,” and suggesting he should be held ‘criminally accountable‘ for “every shooting that happens at a Chabad or Synagogue,” took to X to celebrate the news and claim credit.

“If Tucker Qatarlson gets charged for violating FARA and or leaking information to Russia, Saudi Arabia Iran or Qatar, I’m taking credit,” she wrote, adding “Islamic sympathizers always project onto others what they are likely guilty of.”

She says she’s has been “relentless” in lobbying GOP representatives, law enforcement, and the DOJ over Carlson’s alleged FARA violations. “You have no idea how relentless I have been in speaking to GOP reps and even reporting Tucker to law enforcement and the DOJ. I pray my efforts are successful,” Loomer posted. “Sounds like someone is trying to get ahead of a story. Lock him up!”

If Tucker Qatarlson gets charged for violating FARA and or leaking information to Russia, Saudi Arabia Iran or Qatar, I’m taking credit.

Islamic sympathizers always project onto others what they are likely guilty of.

You have no idea how relentless I have been in speaking to… https://t.co/KT18pMbnZJ

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) March 15, 2026

Loomer resurfaced a February 2026 video of Carlson in Saudi Arabia alongside his brother Buckley Carlson and Tucker Carlson Network CEO Neil Patel, suggesting it showed improper foreign influence.

Shortly before that, she mocked Carlson, saying “If I was a foreign agent and doing something I shouldn’t be doing, I too would come up with an elaborate story about how the CIA was out to get me,” adding “Tucker sounds like someone who is about to be exposed for doing something  they know they shouldn’t be doing.”

How does she know it wasn’t Nick Fuentes?

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on March 13 temporarily blocked the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from ending temporary protected status (TPS) for Somali nationals in the United States.

U.S. District Judge Allison D. Burroughs in Massachusetts (appointed by Barack Obama in 2014) issued the order following a lawsuit filed by four Somali nationals and two nonprofits—African Communities Together and the Partnership for the Advancement of New Americans—arguing that Somalis would face harm if their legal status were revoked.

TPS is a designation that allows individuals from countries affected by armed conflict, natural disasters, or other extraordinary events to remain in the United States.

DHS announced earlier this year that TPS for Somalia would end on March 17, saying that the country’s current conditions have improved and no longer warrant protection under the program.

In her ruling on March 13, Burroughs said that Somalis could face substantial consequences if the TPS termination were able to proceed while the legal challenge is still ongoing.

“Plaintiffs aver that if Somalia’s TPS designation is allowed to terminate, over one thousand people will face ‘a myriad of grave risks,’ including detention and deportation, physical violence if removed to Somalia, and forced separation from family members,” the judge said.

“On the other hand, if the court postpones the effective date of a decision committed to the executive branch by Congress, it risks harmful interference with its coordinate branches of government.”

Burroughs granted the plaintiffs an administrative stay and deferred ruling on the TPS termination to give both sides time to file briefs on the plaintiffs’ emergency motion.

“While the stay is in effect, the termination shall be null, void, and of no legal effect,” the judge stated.

She said the DHS must ensure Somali nationals with TPS or those with pending applications retain their rights and protections, including eligibility for work authorization and protection from deportation.

The Legal Defense Fund, one of the organizations representing the plaintiffs, welcomed the judge’s order in a statement.

“Although today’s court order is temporary, and many battles lie ahead within this legal challenge, the plaintiffs and their legal team are heartened by the interim protection today’s order affords all Somali people in the U.S. who have TPS or pending TPS applications,” it stated.

A DHS spokesperson said in a statement to multiple news outlets that the court order is another example of “judicial ​activists trying to prevent President [Donald] Trump from restoring integrity to America’s legal immigration system.”

According to the plaintiffs’ court filing, about 1,082 Somali nationals currently stay in the United States under TPS, while another 1,383 have pending applications.

The Biden administration in 2024 extended TPS for Somali nationals until March 17, 2026, citing “ongoing armed conflict and extraordinary and temporary conditions” within the country.

The DHS said on Jan. 14 that its outgoing Secretary Kristi Noem determined that Somalia no longer meets the conditions required for TPS designation after reviewing the country’s situation.

“Temporary means temporary,” Noem said in a Jan. 13 statement. “Further, allowing Somali nationals to remain temporarily in the United States is contrary to our national interests. We are putting Americans first.”

The world’s largest single-site aluminium smelter in the Middle East cut its output by about 20% on Sunday, marking yet another troubling development for the global economy. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy story – it’s now spreading into industrial metals. These second- and third-order effects could soon disrupt global supply chains and tighten aluminium availability, thus pressuring prices higher. 

Bloomberg reports that Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) began a controlled, safe shutdown of three reduction lines on Sunday to preserve business continuity amid heavily disrupted maritime shipping routes through the Hormuz chokepoint. 

This production shutdown accounts for about 19% of Alba’s total output capacity of 1.62 million tons per year, representing roughly 2.2% of global aluminium production. The suspension aims to preserve its inventory of raw materials.

In 2025, Gulf Cooperation Council members produced around 6.16 million tons of aluminium, or about 8.35% of global supply, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).

Alba’s cutback, along with the risk of broader disruptions to the aluminium market in the Gulf, could drive aluminium prices in the London market even higher. 

The latest ship tracking data of the Hormuz chokepoint shows tankers anchored on both sides of the strait’s entry and exit points. Traffic remains muted.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi assured the world on Saturday evening that the Hormuz waterway was open to all vessels, except those linked to the US or Israel.