Update(1319ET): The Russian and Ukrainian delegations didn’t have a whole lot to talk about in Monday’s Istanbul meeting, apparently, given it only lasted for about an hour – but they did reach agreement for another major prisoner swap.

Bloomberg and international outlets report that the warring sides agreed to a second swap involving 1,000 POWs – which to include sick and heavily wounded prisoners, as well as young soldiers under 25-years of age. There was also an agreement for the exchange of 6,000 bodies of fallen soldiers. As part of this, Russia proposed a two to three day ceasefire for the evacuation of the war dead, to which the Ukrainian delegation responded by demanding an unconditional truce – which has remained a non-starter for Moscow.

Further, per Bloomberg, “The Russian delegation handed over peace proposals that include Kyiv surrendering control of territory it still holds in four partially occupied regions, a Ukrainian official said.” The Russian side has made clear that the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the annexed territories is central to establishing a lasting ceasefire.

Russia’s RT has said it has gotten hold of Russia’s newest and full outline for permanent settlement. The state-funded outlet has summarized in the following points:

• Crimea, Donbass, Kherson, Zaporozhye internationally recognized as Russian 
• Ukraine doesn’t join NATO or any military bloc 
• Ukraine holds ELECTIONS 
• Withdraws troops from new Russian regions 
• BANS Nazi propaganda

Below is what Russian sources are circulating, identifying the full list of Russia’s peace proposals as handed over to the Ukrainian side, which is going to be studied:

But at this moment, the Zelensky government is feeling more emboldened than ever after Sunday’s ‘Operation Spider Web’s’ – which saw suicide drones released from near at least five Russian airbases, resulting in devastating damage and destruction to Russian strategic bombers and other valuable aircraft.

Zelensky and his more hawkish backers in Europe will likely issue a quick no – especially on the demand for troop withdrawal and holding new presidential and parliamentary elections. And the war goes on…

* * *

Despite Sunday’s major Ukrainian drone operation deep inside Russian territory which is being called the country’s Pearl Harbor, the second round of direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and coordinated by Turkey were held in Istanbul without a problem.

“The eyes of the whole world are focused on the contacts here,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the delegations as the sides squared off in the opulent Çırağan Palace by the Bosphorus. Faden said the aim of the talks is to reach a “sustainable peace”.

“We believe that you will achieve concrete results that will bring us one step closer to peace,” Fidan added, stressing that the meeting aims to evaluate the conditions for a cease-fire, including prepare for a potential future meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. There’s also the potential for more prisoner swaps to come out of the dialogue.

But expectations are low at this point, and it seems that the Kremlin is patiently weighing its options to Sunday’s assault, rather launching a hasty retaliatory attack. 

One Turkish publication writes that even as talks happened, there are “no sign that the two sides are any closer to a deal, the mood in Russia was angry as the talks kicked off, with influential war bloggers calling on Moscow to deliver a fearsome retaliatory blow against Kyiv after Ukraine on Sunday launched one of its most ambitious attacks of the war, targeting Russian nuclear-capable long-range bombers in Siberia and elsewhere.”

June 1, 2025: Russa’s Pearl Harbor: “Russian bombers are burning en masse.”

🔥🇺🇦🇷🇺

June 1, 2025, it’s Pearl Harbor: “Russian bombers are burning en masse”.

In a historic drone attack, Ukraine decimates over 40 Russian strategic bombers on their home bases, including in the Arctic and in Siberia.

🧵 1/24 pic.twitter.com/DQhERz8Yh5

— 𝐀𝐧𝐧𝐚 𝐊𝐎𝐌𝐒𝐀 | 🇪🇺🇫🇷🇵🇱🇺🇦 (@tweet4Anna_NAFO) June 1, 2025

Russia’s delegation was again led Vladimir Medinsky, who arrived Sunday, while Ukraine’s team was headed by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and he had traveled Monday. Turkey’s intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin also took part, according to RIA Novosti.

While Russia’s precise proposals and terms for truce are as yet unclear, Reuters earlier previewed the Ukrainian side’s as wanting a full 30-day ceasefire by air, land, and sea – followed by a return of all prisoners, and of the return of all Ukrainian children allegedly taken into Russian-held territory.

Overnight there were a small amount of Russian ballistic missiles fired on Ukraine, while on the other side the drone swarm attacks continued on Russia, resulting in fires:

Overnight Ukrainian drone attacks on the Kursk and Voronezh regions sparked fires in residential buildings and disrupted traffic on a major highway, regional officials said early on Monday.

Air defenses destroyed a total of 162 Ukrainian drones overnight, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry, downing 57 of the aircraft over the Kursk region.

Falling debris from destroyed drones in the Kursk region sparked fires at several houses and damaged private apartments, Acting Kursk region Governor Alexander Khinshtein said.

Zelensky, feeling confident and emboldened, is warning Russia there’s more to come as US and European weapons are ‘better’ and Kiev has a full arsenal of them. Clearly Zelensky attempted to establish leverage with ‘Operation Spider Web’.

Europe, together with America, has better weapons than Russia. We also have stronger tactical solutions – our operation “Spiderweb” yesterday proved that. Russia must feel what its losses mean. That is what will push it toward diplomacy.

And when Russia takes losses in this… pic.twitter.com/7vel0PRFrn

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 2, 2025

One Russian overnight attack reportedly killed 12 Ukrainian soldiers at a military base in Ukraine’s Dnipro region.

And as the dust settles from the major Sunday operation, it has become clear that Russia has lost hundreds of millions worth of military hardware, including several strategic bombers, now destroyed.

Satellite images emerge: “Judging by the images, four Tu-22M3 bombers and three Tu-95MS bombers were likely destroyed during the operation. In addition, one Tu-95MS was probably damaged,” Ukraine media sources say.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had hailed the major Sunday attacks as “absolutely brilliant” and said that the planning for the operation had been in the works for a year-and-a-half. “Ukraine is defending itself, and rightly so – we are doing everything to make Russia feel the need to end this war,” he said.

The White House has still yet to make a definitive statement, and weekend reports said that Kiev hid its planning from Washington – however many analysts expressed doubt over this claim. President Trump, if he embraces or hails the operation too enthusiastically, might derail efforts at improved bilateral relations with Russia. Any statement seen as giving a US ‘blessing’ might also serve to thwart ongoing ceasefire attempts.

Via VigilantFox.com

On Tuesday, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivered a historic course correction from the Biden-era vaccine policy.

Standing alongside NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary, Kennedy announced that COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for healthy children and pregnant women were officially removed from the CDC’s immunization schedule.

“Hi, everybody. I’m Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., your HHS secretary. And I’m here today with NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary. I couldn’t be more pleased to announce that, as of today, the COVID vaccine for healthy children and healthy pregnant women has been removed from the CDC recommended immunization schedule.”

It was an unmistakable shift away from coercive one-size-fits-all medicine, and a clear signal that data, not politics, is now leading the conversation.

On Tuesday, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivered a historic course correction from the Biden-era vaccine policy.

Standing alongside NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary, Kennedy announced that COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for… pic.twitter.com/ZWueGdQRyV

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) June 1, 2025

Today, Dr. Marty Makary took the fight straight into the lion’s den—appearing on CBS to dismantle the network’s go-to vaccine talking points.

When host Margaret Brennan tried to paint the updated guidance as confusing, Makary didn’t flinch.

“Can you clearly state what the policy is? Because this is confusing,” she asked.

Makary responded without hesitation: “Yeah, we believe the recommendation should be with a patient and their doctor.”

That’s when the real shift came into focus.

“So we’re going to get away from these blanket recommendations in healthy young Americans.”

“On the COVID vaccine schedule, we don’t want to see kids kicked out of school because a 12-year-old girl is not getting her fifth COVID booster shot.”

“We don’t see the data there to support a young, healthy child getting a repeat infinite annual COVID vaccine.”

He then laid out the sheer absurdity of where the old policy was heading.

“There’s a theory that we should sort of blindly approve the new COVID boosters in young, healthy kids every year in perpetuity, and a young girl born today should get 80 COVID mRNA shots or other COVID shots in her average lifespan.”

“We’re saying that’s a theory, and we’d like to check in and get some randomized controlled data. It’s been about four years since the original randomized trials. So we’d like an evidence based approach.”

And then came the knockout line—delivered with facts no one could deny.

“That is a decision between a parent and their doctor—I don’t know if you know these statistics, but 88% of American kids, their parents have said no to the COVID shot last season. So America, the vast majority of Americans are saying no.”

Today, Dr. Marty Makary took the fight straight into the lion’s den—appearing on CBS to dismantle the network’s go-to vaccine talking points.

When host Margaret Brennan tried to paint the updated guidance as confusing, Makary didn’t flinch.

“Can you clearly state what the… pic.twitter.com/R7Gv4lE655

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) June 1, 2025

Brennan tried to shift gears—falling back on CDC data to argue that even healthy kids remained at risk.

“So the CDC data said 41% of children aged 6 months to 17 years hospitalized with COVID between 2022 and 2024 did not have a known underlying condition. In other words, they looked healthy,” she said.

“And COVID was serious for them.”

But Makary was ready.

Calm and precise, he dismantled the claim with surgical clarity.

“So first of all, we know the CDC data is contaminated with a lot of false positives from incidental positive COVID tests with routine testing of every kid that walks in the hospital.”

“We know that data historically under the Biden administration did not distinguish being sick from COVID or an incidental positive COVID test.”

He shared what he’s heard from the people who actually run the ICUs in America.

“When you go to an ICU in America and you ask how many people are in the ICU that are healthy, that are sick with COVID? The answer I get again, again is we haven’t seen that in a year or years.”

That’s why, he warned, making universal recommendations based on flawed data isn’t just wrong—it’s dangerous.

“And so the worst thing you can do in public health is to put out an absolute universal recommendation in young, healthy kids.”

“And the vast majority of Americans are saying, no, we want to see some data. And you say, forget about the data, just get it anyway.”

Brennan tried to shift gears—falling back on CDC data to argue that even healthy kids remained at risk.

“So the CDC data said 41% of children aged 6 months to 17 years hospitalized with COVID between 2022 and 2024 did not have a known underlying condition. In other words, they… pic.twitter.com/DhIkeoHmZB

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) June 1, 2025

But it was the final exchange that landed like a sledgehammer.

When Brennan questioned why the HHS bypassed the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for the new policy shift, Makary landed a haymaker.

“That panel has been a kangaroo court where they just rubberstamp EVERY single vaccine put in front of them.”

He said the committee hadn’t been focused on science, but on messaging and marketing.

“You look at the minutes of the last couple of years, they say, we want a simple message for everybody just so they can understand it. It was not a data based conversation. It was a conversation based on marketing and ease.”

And without real evidence, he warned, these recommendations become little more than guesswork.

“If there’s zero clinical data, you’re opining. I mean—it’s a theory.”

“And so we don’t want to put out an absolute recommendation for kids, with no clinical data to support it.”

The implication was unmistakable: public health decisions should be based on evidence and transparency—not rubber stamps and slogans.

For the first time in years, someone on national television was calling out the system.

But it was the final exchange that landed like a sledgehammer.

When Brennan questioned why the HHS bypassed the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for the new policy shift, Makary landed a haymaker.

“That panel has been a kangaroo court where they just… pic.twitter.com/jG04k9Tz2s

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) June 1, 2025

Following last fall’s U.S. presidential election, a wave of left-leaning X accounts—some of which self-proclaimed themselves as “news influencers”—announced their plans to abandon Elon Musk’s social media platform in favor of the woke Bluesky platform.

A new Pew Research Center analysis of 500 top news influencers (each with over 100,000 followers) shows that Bluesky’s adoption surged after the 2024 presidential election, rising from 21% to 43% by March 2025. Nearly half of the Bluesky accounts were created after the election, with a sizeable spike in the final weeks of November.

Despite Bluesky’s rise as a digital ‘safe space’ for progressives, X remains one of the most influential platforms for online conversation:

Many news influencers on Bluesky joined during the platform’s recent wave of growth. About half of sampled news influencers with a Bluesky account (51%) created that account after the 2024 election, including 42% who did so in the last three weeks of November 2024.

Even with Bluesky’s growth, X remains popular among the 2024 sample of news influencers. As of early 2025, 82% have an account there, about the same share as in summer 2024 (85%).

And most of these news influencers with a Bluesky account also have an X account. Only 6% of the influencers we studied have a Bluesky account but not an X account, while 37% have both. The largest share (46%) have an X account but not a Bluesky account.

Pew’s findings will disappoint rage-fueled leftist news influencers: 

 At the same time, most news influencers across the political spectrum have not left X. Three-quarters of left-leaning news influencers have an X account, as do 87% of right-leaning news influencers and 83% of those without a clear political orientation.

Pew also noted that most influencers continue to post regularly on X rather than on Bluesky.

The left relentlessly tried to dismantle X, with their army of PR propagandists staging a mass exodus. Months later, realizing Bluesky has zero influence at all, these crazed leftists have returned to X.

By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank

Steel yourself for cracking

Jamie Dimon made headlines over the weekend by saying that a crack in the bond market is “going to happen” due to accumulated fiscal and monetary profligacy (which he repeated again this morning). While that’s certainly an incendiary comment in itself, most of the newspapers seem to have weirdly glossed over Jamie’s more blockbuster bromides at the same event, where he noted that the “tectonic plates [of geopolitics] are shifting” and “trade is [only] a part” of that. The JP Morgan CEO was unequivocal that the USA would no longer be the issuer of the reserve currency in 40-years’ time if it did not retain its position as the pre-eminent economic AND military power, and that the biggest threat that the nation faces is “the enemy within”. Yikes.

The man responsible for financing the US government doesn’t seem too worried. Scott Bessent told a hearing of the House of Representatives that the United States “will never default” on its debts. The fact that the question is even being asked seems place a few asterisks around that answer, with some of those perhaps relating to the USA inflating its way out, or engaging in financial repression to make the debt ‘sustainable’, or raising additional revenue through tariffs and/or the provisions of the Section 899 ‘Revenge Tax’. The latter is designed to punish foreign capital flowing from countries that do not comply with US wishes on trade (EU digital services tax, I’m looking at you).

Is it time to question the sacred cow of globalized capital markets?

As if to highlight Jamie’s point on the primacy of geopolitics, Ukraine managed to sneak a bunch of drones into cargo containers and then use them to take down fully one third of Russia’s long-range nuclear bombers. Some analysts are calling this a Russian Pearl Harbour (which might gloss over how the USA responded after the attack on Pearl Harbour) but the event surely highlights the changed nature of modern warfare, and the extent to which ‘small and cheap’ can defeat ‘big and expensive’. We might have learned that lesson after rag-tag Houthis managed to confound the assembled forces of Western capitalism in the Red Sea, or after the war in Afghanistan took twenty years to replace Taliban with Taliban, but here it is highlighted for us once again.

On the subject of the Middle East, the USA has reportedly sent Tehran a proposed “detailed and acceptable” nuclear deal with the strong suggestion that Iran should take it. According to reports, the deal would involve Iran foregoing all nuclear enrichment capabilities – which the Iranian leadership says it won’t do – in favor of a regional enrichment consortium that will likely involve Saudi Arabia (Iran’s major regional competitor). This comes at a time when the IAEA has just released a new report claiming that Iran has secretly enriched uranium to 60% purity, well beyond the levels required for civilian applications. If that stock were to be further enriched to 90% purity it would be enough for 9-10 nuclear weapons. That news will likely make it all the harder for President Trump to deter Israeli leadership from a pre-emptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The USA had placed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iranian oil exports to give the nuclear deal negotiations a help-along, but the WSJ notes in an editorial today that a White House directive was delivered last week to pause all new sanctions activity. The WSJ suggests that this is handing off some of the leverage that the USA currently has, and also represents a free-kick to the USA’s principal geopolitical competitor, China, who is by far the largest buyer of Iranian oil cargoes. The lighter touch on sanctions arrives at a time when OPEC+ has agreed to ramp up production by an additional 411,000 bbl/day. So, although crude oil prices are rallying today and face plenty of geopolitical risks on the road ahead, in the absence of a major risk event coming to fruition any rallies are likely to be capped by the plentiful supply outlook.

Turning to Asia, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ruffled some feathers in the Indo-Pacific by suggesting at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that China could be credibly seen as preparing to use military force to alter the balance of power in the region. Hegseth said that “the threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent” in an apparent reference to US intel that Xi Jinping told the Peoples Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. In a meeting with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles, Hegseth reportedly urged Australia to up its military spending to 3.5% of GDP. Marles (who is from the Right faction of the ruling Labor Party) seemed open to the idea. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (a man of the Left), less so. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs blasted Hegseth over his comments.

Kevin Hassett of the Council of Economic Advisors and Scott Bessent have been suggesting that Donald Trump might hold a call with Xi Jinping this week in an attempt to progress a trade deal. China has reportedly been withholding export licenses for critical rare earth materials, in contravention of the agreement to reduce tariffs for 90-days. After a reporter seemingly bruised the President’s ego with a question about the TACO trade ( TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out) Trump announced a doubling of steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% from June 4th.

Could we be about to see Trump get tough on China again?

The narrowly passed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” makes its way to the Senate this week, where it faces a handful of GOP spending hawks who say it’s far too expensive to pass. 

One holdout, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), said that he would support the bill if the debt ceiling hike was removed – telling CBS’ Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan that he and three other GOP senators will hold out against the bill unless it’s modified.

“I think there are four of us at this point, and I would be very surprised if the bill at least is not modified in a good direction,” said Paul. “I want the tax cuts to be permanent. But at the same time, I don’t wanna raise the debt ceiling five trillion,” he continued, adding “The GOP will own the debt once they vote for this.”

The American people, like the Great People of Kentucky, do not support Biden spending levels and $5T in new debt. Therefore, I will not. It’s simple. pic.twitter.com/m9sTuDiGZK

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) June 1, 2025

According to Paul, there are more holdouts… 

“I think there are four of us at this point, and I would be very surprised if the bill at least is not modified in a good direction,” he told CBS News. 

On Saturday, President Donald Trump warned Paul that he would be “playing into the hands of the Democrats” if he votes against he bill.

“If Senator Rand Paul votes against our Great, Big, Beautiful Bill, he is voting for, along with the Radical Left Democrats, a 68% Tax Increase and, perhaps even more importantly, a first time ever default on U.S. Debt,” Trump wrote on Truth social Saturday afternoon. 

“Rand will be playing right into the hands of the Democrats, and the GREAT people of Kentucky will never forgive him! The GROWTH we are experiencing, plus some cost cutting later on, will solve ALL problems. America will be greater than ever before!” 

The bill will move through Congress under a budget process known as reconciliation, which allows Senate Republicans to pass legislation with a simple majority vs. the a 60-vote threshold. While this would normally allow the GOP-controlled Senate to pass legislation without any support from Democratic lawmakers, Sen. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) can only afford to lose three members of his party. 

In addition to Rand Paul, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) told Fox News that the bill was “completely unsustainable,” and he plans to hold a hearing on it before a full Senate vote. 

A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the bill’s tax provisions concluded that the package’s tax provisions – which include an extension of President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts – would raise the deficit by an estimated $3.8 trillion over the next decade – something both JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire Elon Musk have spoken out about, with Dimon predicting a “crisis” in the bond market from undermining public confidence. 

According to Sen. Johnson, “I agree with Jamie Dimon here,” adding that he wants to return spending to pre-pandemic levels and break the House bill into two separate Senate bills. 

When asked if he was willing to ‘blow up’ the Trump agenda, Johnson said “My loyalty is to the American people, to my kids and grandkids,” adding “We cannot continue to mortgage their future.”

Ron Johnson makes the case against the House GOP spending bill: “The transfer of wealth from old people like me to young people is literally immoral. It has to stop.” pic.twitter.com/tAkjsDpJMA

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 1, 2025

Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Some bearish bond investors in Japan and the US appear to believe that a paradigm shift is underway in the sovereign bond markets.

To wit, consider the following statement from Jim Bianco on Thoughtful Money: 

“If these deficits are really going to kick in and cause problems, these rates are going to go much higher than this.” 

The bond market paradigm shift we observe is that some people believe the governments and central banks of the largest nations are no longer managing interest rates. 

For those who believe in this paradigm shift, we ask a simple question: Why Would They Stop Now?

The governments and central banks of developed countries have long-standing policies that keep high levels of public and private debt serviceable.

Moreover, these same policies aim to incentivize further debt accumulation.

The bearish voices in the bond market, claiming a paradigm shift is underway, show a disregard for history.

Bond bulls and bears can all agree that global fiscal debt trends are not sustainable.

However, do you think the governments are now willing to pay the price for such malfeasance?

Two years ago, the Japanese government uncapped its interest rates, and not surprisingly, they have surged higher. 

However, with their 30-year bond approaching 3%, they announced that they are considering adjusting their debt issuance patterns. As shown below, its 30-year bond fell 35 basis points after the announcement.

Bond yields in the US and around the world fell in sympathy.

Governments around the world will preserve their debt-driven financial systems and economies by keeping a lid on interest rates. 

Again, ponder the one simple question if you believe in the paradigm shift: why would the governments and central banks stop manipulating the bond market now?

With ‘soft’ data turning back up to hard data’s reality, all eyes are on this morning’s Manufacturing PMI surveys for signs of continued reality-checks on the economy.

• S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.2 to 52.0 in end May (but that was down from the flash print of 52.3) – Highest since February.

• ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.5 (below expectations of 49.5) – Lowest since November

Source: Bloomberg

But, “the rise in the PMI during May masks worrying developments under the hood of the US manufacturing economy,” according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“While growth of new orders picked up and suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the common theme was a temporary surge in demand as manufacturers and their customers worry about supply issues and rising prices.

“These concerns were not without basis: supplier delays have risen to the highest since October 2022, and incidences of price hikes are at their highest since November 2022, blamed in most cases on tariffs. Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets, appear worst hit so far by the impact of tariffs on supply and prices.

Prices remain at or near 3 year highs while new orders and employment continue to contract…

Imports plunged in April (to the lowest since 2009)…

But, uncertainty remains:

“Encouragingly, manufacturers regained some optimism in May after sentiment had been hit hard by tariff announcements in April, partly reflecting the pauses on new levies.

However, uncertainty clearly remains elevated amid the fluid tariff environment, and factories have so far shown a reluctance to expand headcounts in the face of such volatility.”

Baffle ’em with bullshit surveys continue…

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Winston Churchill once warned that “appeasement is feeding the crocodile, hoping he will eat you last.”

When it comes to the crocodile of censorship, history is strewn with defenders who later became digestives.

Censorship produces an insatiable appetite for greater and greater speech limits, and today’s censorship supporters often become tomorrow’s censored subjects.

This week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stopped feeding the crocodile.

On May 28, 2025, Rubio shocked many of our allies by issuing a new visa restriction policy that bars foreign nationals deemed “responsible for censorship of protected expression” in the U.S.

The new policy follows a major address by Vice President J.D. Vance in Munich challenging our European allies to end their systematic attacks on free speech.

Vance declared, “If you are running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. Nor, for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people that elected me and elected President Trump.”

At the time, I called the speech “Churchillian” in drawing a bright line for the free world. Rubio’s action is no less impressive and even more impactful.

Europe has faced no consequences for its aggressive efforts at transnational censorship. Indeed, this should not be a fight for the administration alone. Congress should explore reciprocal penalties for foreign governments targeting American companies or citizens for engaging in protected speech.

After Vance spoke in Munich, I spoke in Berlin at the World Forum, where European leaders gathered in one of the most strikingly anti-free speech conferences I have attended. This year’s forum embraced the slogan “A New World Order with European Values.”

That “new world order” is based on an aggressive anti-free speech platform that has been enforced for years by the European Union. At the heart of this effort is the Digital Services Act, a draconian law that allows for sweeping censorship and speech prosecutions. Most importantly, it has been used by the EU to threaten American corporations for their failure to censor Americans and others on social media sites.

After the World Forum, I returned home to warn that this is now an existential war over a right that defines us as a people —the very “Indispensable Right” identified by Justice Louis Brandeis, which is essential for every other right in the Constitution.

The irony was crushing. I wrote about how this nation has fought to protect our rights in world wars, yet many in Congress simply shrug or even support the effort as other countries move to make Americans censor other Americans.

What was most unnerving about Berlin was how Americans have encouraged Europeans to target their fellow citizens. At the forum was Hillary Clinton who, after Elon Musk purchased Twitter on a pledge to dismantle its massive censorship system, called upon the EU to use the Digital Services Act to force him to resume censorship.

Other Americans have appeared before the EU to call upon it to oppose the U.S. Nina Jankowicz, the former head of President Joe Biden’s infamous Disinformation Governance Board, has recently returned to the EU to rally other nations to oppose what she described as “the autocracy, the United States of America.”

She warned that the Digital Services Act was under attack, and that the EU had to fight and beat the U.S.: “Do not capitulate. Hold the line.”

Former European Commissioner for Internal Markets and Services Thierry Breton even threatened Musk for interviewing Trump before our last presidential election. He told Musk that he was being “monitored” in conducting any interview with now-President Trump.

The EU is doubling down on these efforts, including threatening Musk with prosecution and massive confiscatory fines if he does not resume censoring users of X. The penalties are expected to exceed $1 billion.

Other countries are following suit. Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes shut down X in his entire country over Musk’s refusal to remove political posts. These countries could remotely control speech within the U.S., forcing companies like X to meet the lowest common denominator set by the EU and anti-free speech groups.

There are free speech concerns even in such measures designed to protect free speech. This policy should be confined to government officials, particularly EU officials, who are actively seeking to export European censorship systems worldwide. It should not extend to academics or individuals who are part of the growing anti-free speech movement. Free speech itself can counter those voices. These are the same voices that we have heard throughout history, often using the very same terms and claims to silence others.

However, Rubio showed Europe that the U.S. would not simply stand by as European censors determined what Americans could say, read, or watch. As the EU threatens companies like X with billion-dollar fines, it is time for the U.S. to treat this as an attack on our citizens from abroad.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt put it simply during World War II: “No man can tame a tiger into a kitten by stroking it.”

It is time to get serious about the European threat to free speech. And Rubio is doing just that — finally imposing real consequences for censorship. We are not going to defeat censors by yelling at them. Speech alone clearly does not impress them.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Following a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened week, newsflow starts to pick up again. In terms of data this week, we have US payrolls on Friday as the main event but the US manufacturing ISM today and the services equivalent on Wednesday will also be important. We will also get various global PMIs spread across this week. You can see the main ones in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

The ECB rate decision on Thursday (25bps cut widely expected), and what the tone suggests going forward, will also be a big focus. The BoC meet on Wednesday (a 25bps cut also expected). May CPI prints are due in the Eurozone, Switzerland (tomorrow) and Sweden (Thursday). Broadcom, which sits just outside the Mag-7, sees their earnings on Thursday and this might give us some latest thoughts on current AI trends.

Given its payrolls week we also have JOLTS (Tuesday) and ADP (Wednesday), with jobless claims (Thursday) of added interest given we saw a small but notable increase last week. For payrolls economists expect the headline (+128k forecast vs. +177k previously) and private (+115k vs. +167k) gains to slow relative to their trailing three-month averages of 155k and 148k, respectively, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.2%. For the rest of the week ahead see the diary at the end.

DB’s economists also flag that the Senate will return to Washington DC this week to begin marking up the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”. They think it will be interesting to see if the GOP Senators are as eager to make deep cuts to clean energy tax credits and Medicaid as their House counterparts. At the same time, the latest legal developments on the trade front pose risks to tariff revenues. 

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 2

• Data : US May ISM manufacturing index, April construction spending, UK April net consumer credit, M4, Japan Q1 MoF corporate survey, Italy May manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Canada May manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Q1 GDP
• Central banks : Fed’s Powell, Waller, Logan and Goolsbee speak, BoE’s Mann speaks

Tuesday June 3

• Data : US April factory orders, JOLTS report, May total vehicle sales, China May Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan May monetary base, France April budget balance, Italy April unemployment rate, Eurozone May CPI, April unemployment rate, Switzerland May CPI
• Central banks : Fed’s Goolsbee, Cook and Logan speak, BoJ’s Ueda speaks
• Earnings : Crowdstrike, HPE, Dollar General, NIO

Wednesday June 4

• Data : US May ADP report, ISM services, UK May official reserves changes, Italy May services PMI, Canada Q1 labor productivity
• Central banks : Fed’s Bostic and Cook speak, Beige Book released, BoC decision
• Earnings : Dollar Tree

Thursday June 5

• Data : US April trade balance, initial jobless claims, China May Caixin services PMI, UK May new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan April labor cash earnings, Germany April factory orders, May construction PMI, Italy April retail sales, Eurozone April PPI, Canada April international merchandise trade, Sweden May CPI
• Central banks : Fed’s Kugler and Harker speak, ECB’s decision, BoE’s Greene and Breeden speak, DMP survey released
• Earnings : Broadcom, Lululemon

Friday June 6

• Data : US May jobs report, April consumer credit, Japan April household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany April industrial production, trade balance, France April trade balance, current account balance, industrial production, Eurozone April retail sales, Canada May jobs report
• Central banks : ECB’s Holzmann and Centeno speak

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing and services indices on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Chair Powell will deliver opening remarks at a conference hosted by the Fed Board on Monday

Monday, June 2

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May final (consensus 52.3, last 52.3)
  We estimate the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.8pt to 49.5 in May, reflecting firmer manufacturing surveys so far for May (GS manufacturing survey tracker +2.4pt to 49.5).
  10:15 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated discussion with Gabe Guerra, CEO of Kleberg Bank. Audience and media Q&A are expected. On May 29th, Logan said she thought that “monetary policy is in a good place,” with “the labor market holding strong, inflation trending back to target, and risks to the FOMC’s objectives roughly balanced.” Logan also noted that “it could take quite some time to know whether the balance of risks is shifting in one direction or another.”
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.5%)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, May (GS 49.5, consensus 49.5, last 48.7):
• 12:45 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will take part in a Q&A at the Quad Cities Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review in Davenport, Iowa. On May 29th, Goolsbee noted that if “either we don’t put the tariffs in, or they reach some deals that allow us to avoid doing that, we could go back to [where] we were prior to April 2,” and that “if you have stable full employment and inflation going to target, rates can come down to where they would eventually settle.” Goolsbee observed that “if we can get the dust out of the air, I do still think that underneath there is a strong dual-mandate economy,” but that “the longer we go contemplating really big changes, … the more that fades into the background.”
• 01:00 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks at a conference commemorating the 75th anniversary of the International Finance Division of the Fed Board. Text is expected. On May 15th, Powell said that in its 2025 monetary policy framework review, the FOMC will reconsider the language from its previous review about focusing on “shortfalls” rather than “deviations” from maximum employment and about average inflation targeting. Before that, at the press conference following the FOMC’s May meeting on May 7th, Powell said about twelve times that monetary policy is in a good place and the FOMC can wait and see how the economy evolves for now. He noted that both trade policy and its economic effects remain uncertain, and he reiterated that tariffs could put the two sides of the Fed’s dual mandate in tension. As a result, he said, “Right now there’s no need to make a choice and no real basis for doing so.”

Tuesday, June 3

• 10:00 AM Factory orders, April (GS -3.6%, consensus -3.1%, last 3.4%); Factory orders ex-transportation, April (last -0.4%); Durable goods orders, April final (consensus -6.3%, last -6.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April final (consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, April final (last -1.3%); Core capital goods shipments, April final (last -0.1%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, April (GS 7,200k, consensus 7,100k, last 7,192k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged at 7.2mn in April based on the signal from online job postings.
• 12:45 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will take part in a Q&A at the Corridor Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Q&A is expected.
• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will discuss the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 03:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver opening remarks at a Fed Listens event. Text is expected.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, May (GS 15.7mn, consensus 16.1mn, last 17.3mn)

Wednesday, June 4

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, May (GS +115k, consensus +110k, last +62k)
• 08:30 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) and Fed Governor Cook speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will moderate a roundtable conversation at a Fed Listens event.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, May final (consensus 52.3, last 52.3)
  We estimate that the ISM services index increased by 0.4pt to 52.0 in May, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+1.0pt to 50.3 in May).
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, May (GS 49.8, consensus 52.1, last 51.6):
• 02:00 PM Beige Book, June meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the May FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity was roughly unchanged since March, with five districts reporting “slight growth,” three districts reporting “relatively unchanged” activity, and the other four districts reporting “slight to modest declines” in activity. The Beige Book noted that the economic outlook had “worsened considerably” for “several” districts because of higher uncertainty, partly as a result of changes to trade policy. The Fed noted that the report was based on information collected on or before April 14th, 2025, after the reciprocal tariffs pause but before the pause in US-China tariff increases on May 12th. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to changes in expectations and the outlook as a result of the recent reductions in tariffs.

Thursday, June 5

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, April (GS -$64.0bn, consensus -$66.5bn, last -$140.5bn): We forecast that trade deficit narrowed from $140.5bn to $64.0bn in April, reflecting a sharp decline in the goods trade deficit and a rebound in travel services exports.
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 final (GS -0.7%, consensus -0.8%, last -0.8%): Unit labor costs, Q1 final (GS +6.1%, consensus +5.7%, last +5.7%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 31 (GS 235k, consensus 235k, last 240k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 24 (consensus 1,906k, last 1,919k)
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of New York. Text and Q&A are expected. On May 12th, Kugler said that “trade policies are evolving and are likely to continue shifting,” but noted that they nevertheless “appear likely to generate significant economic effects even if tariffs stay close to the currently announced levels.”
• 01:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks:  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will deliver remarks on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Philadelphia Fed. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 01:30 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will deliver a speech on banking policy at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, June 6

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, May (GS +125k, consensus +125k, last +177k); Private payroll employment, May (GS +115k, consensus +110k, last +167k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, May (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 125k in May. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a solid pace of job creation. On the negative side, we expect another modest increase in government payrolls (GS forecast 10k vs. 13k on average so far this year), reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that partly offsets a 20k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% on a rounded basis. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting neutral calendar effects.

Source: DB, Goldman

In February, President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning transgender athletes (men pretending to be women) from participation in publicly funded women’s sporting events.  “We will not allow men to beat up, injure and cheat our women and our girls. From now on, women’s sports will be only for women,” Trump said at the signing ceremony, standing at a podium flanked by female athletes. “With this executive order, the war on women’s sports is over.”

The shift in public sentiment by the end of 2024 was palpable.  The western world was being force fed a steady diet of trans propaganda that bordered on worship.  The public could not go anywhere without being inundated with LGBT flags and imagery.  For a minority that represents less than 1% of the global population, the level of funding and political power behind them has been astonishing.   

The proclamation that trans people were a special and privileged class and their feelings had to be protected at all costs was simply too much.  The campaigns to control American speech, indoctrinate American children in public schools and insert men into women’s spaces inspired widespread anger.

Trump’s order was important in changing the discourse on the transgender issue in political terms, but the grotesque societal stain left behind by a decade-long invasion of transgender ideology into American culture will take a bit more effort to wash out.  Don’t shine a black light on America’s sheets, you won’t be happy with what you find.

Most critics of men using the trans issue as a way to sneak into women’s bathrooms, locker rooms and athletics have noted that women and their families will have to step up and fight back if they ever hope to save female spaces from being dominated by mentally ill dudes in wigs and makeup.  A common question throughout the early 2020s was “When are the women going to speak up and defend themselves?”

It seems as though this is finally happening.  With women athletes like Riley Gaines leading the charge there has been a noticeable change in tone among women competitors as well as attendees of these sports events.  

Most transgender participation in sports is happening in a handful of leftist holdout states like California, Oregon, Washington and Maine.  However, female athletes and their families have been far less inclined to pretend as if they agree with school policies allowing men to compete. 

One trans athlete, Ada Gallagher (a boy pretending to be a girl), said he and his family are planning to move to Canada because of the backlash.  Ada crushed his female competition in the Oregon State Championship for track and was met with boos from the crowd.  This has inspired the young man and his family to leave the country (instead of simply competing in men’s sports as he should). 

In California a trans athlete named AB Hernandez (male pretending to be female) dominated the high jump in the high school track and field competition.  The man took the 1st place podium for photos only to be met with silence.  The second place was met with exuberant cheers.

Trans-identified male athlete who beat a girl last weekend at the Masters meet in California was met with no applause, while the girl who came in second was met with much louder cheers. The other competitors did not take the podium. pic.twitter.com/Ul5jKdCOW4

— CAMILLE PAGLIA STAN ✨ FAN ACCOUNT (@Provokatov) May 30, 2025

Female athletes are also refusing to take to the podium when men are allowed to compete and win in events.

Watch this.

Two female athletes in Oregon refused to stand on the podium because a boy was awarded a place.

Girls have had enough.
pic.twitter.com/MhCgZ2zLou

— Riley Gaines (@Riley_Gaines_) May 31, 2025

In other cases, the audience outright boos male competitors when they win women’s events. 

WATCH: The dude who STOLE the girl’s 400m at the Washington State Championship, got BOOED by the audience during the announcement

Good.

He’s a CHEATER.pic.twitter.com/yKnwFMFvPg https://t.co/1mV2rNJnaR

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) June 1, 2025

The media claims the backlash against trans athletes is overblown because they represent a small percentage of competitors.  Leftists will argue that this behavior is discriminatory and “mean spirited”, but they don’t consider the situation from the point of view of real women athletes (or they don’t care).  Every time a man wins a women’s sports event he is stealing an opportunity from a woman who worked hard her entire life to get to that moment.  He skipped ahead of those women by using his biological advantage and exploiting a political loophole.  He’s making a mockery of the spirit of competition.

Furthermore, the longer this trend is allowed to continue the more real women will be phased out of sports by men.  In ten years time it would not be unreasonable to predict that every top athlete in women’s sports will be a man.  Biological female winners will become a thing of the past.  Ultimately, real women will stop participating altogether, because what’s the point.

Pressure must be applied at every level to erase this travesty.  The age of madness when America entertained the delusions of the mentally ill for the sake of progressive relativism needs to finally and fully end.  The concept of trans athletes needs to become an embarrassing and forgotten memory, and this will only happen when Americans stop feeling obligated to applaud them for their theatrics.