Via Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities

When asked about the cost of their government’s support of the State of Israel, some Americans will say it’s $3.8 billion a year — the amount of annual military aid the United States is committed to under its current, 10-year “memorandum of understanding” with Israel. However, that answer massively understates the true cost of the relationship, not only because it doesn’t capture various, vast expenditures springing from it, but even more so because the relationship’s steepest costs can’t be measured in dollars.

Since its 1948 founding, Israel has been far and away the largest recipient of American foreign assistance. Though the Ukraine war created a brief anomaly, Israel generally tops the list every year, despite the fact that Israel is among the world’s richest countries — ranked three spots below the UK and two spots above Japan in per capita GDP. Driving that point home, even when using the grossly-understating $3.8 billion figure for US expenditures on Israel, America gave the Zionist state $404 per person in the 2023 fiscal year, compared to just $15 per person for Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries on Earth and America’s third-largest beneficiary that year.

Israel’s cumulative post-World War II haul has been nearly double that of runner-up Egypt. What most Americans don’t realize, however, is that much of Egypt’s take — $1.4 billion in 2023 — should be chalked up to Israel too, because of ongoing US aid commitments rising from the 1978 Camp David Accords that brokered peace between Egypt and Israel. The same can be said for Jordan — America’s fourth-largest beneficiary in fiscal 2023 at $1.7 billion. US aid to the kingdom surged after it signed its own 1994 treaty with Israel, and a wedge of Jordan’s aid is intended to address the country’s large refugee population, comprising not only Palestinians displaced by Israel’s creation, but also masses who’ve fled US-led regime-change wars pursued on Israel’s behalf.

Then there’s the supplemental aid to Israel that Congress periodically authorizes on top of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) commitment. Since the October 7 Hamas invasion of Israel, these supplements have exceeded the MOU commitment by leaps and bounds. In just the first year of the war in Gaza, Congress and President Biden approved an additional $14.1 billion in “emergency” military aid to Israel, bringing the total for that year to $17.9 billion.

One must also consider the fact that, given the US government runs perpetual deficits that now easily exceed $1 trillion, every marginal expenditure, including aid to Israel, is financed with debt that bears an interest expense, increasing Americans’ tax-and-inflation burden.

On top of money given to Israel, the US government spends huge sums on activities either meant to benefit Israel or that spring from Israel’s actions. For example, during just the first year of Israel’s post-Oct 7 war in Gaza, increased US Navy offensive and defensive operations in the Middle East theater cost America an estimated $4.86 billion.

Those Gaza-war-related outflows have not only continued but accelerated. For example, earlier this year, the Pentagon engaged in an intense campaign against Yemen’s Houthis. In proclaimed retaliation for Israel’s systematic destruction of Gaza, the Houthis have targeted Israel, and ships the Houthis said were linked to Israel. In response, America unleashed “Operation Rough Rider,” which often saw $2 million American missiles being used against $10,000 Houthi drones, and cost between one and two billion dollars.

President Trump’s military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — amid a war initiated by Israel on contrived premises — cost America another one to two billion dollars, according to early estimates. Even before the attack on a nuclear program the US intelligence community continues to assess is not aimed at producing a weapon, the Pentagon was already spending more money on Israel’s behalf, helping to defend the country from Iran’s response to Israel’s unprovoked aggression. The run-up to US strikes itself entailed a massive and costly mobilization of American forces and equipment to the region, as the Pentagon readied for multiple scenarios.

Propelled by Israel’s powerful US-based lobby, by Israel-pandering legislators, and by a revolving cast of Israel-favoring presidents, cabinet members, and national security officials, the United States has consistently pursued policies in the Middle East that place top priority on securing Israel’s regional supremacy.

Among the many avenues used to pursue that goal, none has been more costly than that of regime change, where an outcome that results in a shattered, chaotic state is seemingly just as pleasing to Israel and its American collaborators as one that spawns a functioning state with an Israel-accommodating government — and where the cost is often measured not only in US dollars but in American lives and limbs.

Of course, the most infamous such regime-change effort was the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. “If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region,” current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured a US congressional hearing. Doing his part to aid a Bush administration dominated by Israel-aligned neoconservatives bent on taking out one of Israel’s regional adversaries, Netanyahu also said there was “no question whatsoever” that Hussein was “hell-bent on achieving atomic bombs.”

The drive to topple Syria’s Iran-allied Assad government is another prominent example of regime change on behalf of Israel, as the two countries sought to sever the “Shia Crescent” that — due in great part to Saddam’s ouster — presented a continuous pipeline of Iranian influence extending to Israel’s borders. To the contentment of the US and Israeli governments, Syria is now led by an al Qaeda alumnus who’s reportedly poised to relinquish Syria’s long-standing claim on the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967.

Taken together, the price tag of US military operations in Iraq and Syria, including past and future medical and disability care for veterans, totals $2.9 trillion, according to Brown University’s Costs of War Project. The human toll has been even more mind-boggling: upwards of 580,000 civilians and combatants killed, with perhaps two to four times that number indirectly perishing from displacement, disease and other factors. More than 4,600 US service-members died in Iraq, and 32,000 were injured, many of them enduring amputations and burns. Alongside mass suffering, these and other US interventions undertaken to ensure Israel’s regional supremacy have fomented enormous resentment of the United States across the region.

Those resentments help drive another massive debit in the Israel’s account with the United States: Any thorough assessment of the costs of the relationship must reflect the fact that US backing of Israel is a principal motivator of Islamist terrorism directed against Americans, and there’s no greater example of that fact than 9/11.

From Osama bin Laden to the hijackers, anger over US support of Israel was one of Al Qaeda’s foremost motivators:

• In his 1996 declaration of war against the United States, bin Laden cited the First Qana Massacre, in which Israel killed 106 Lebanese civilians who sought refuge at a UN compound. He said Muslim youth “hold [the United States] responsible for all the killings…carried out by your Zionist brothers in Lebanon; you openly supplied them with arms and finance.”

• Bin Laden said he was initially inspired to strike American skyscrapers when he witnessed Israel’s 1982 destruction of apartment towers in Lebanon.

• The 9/11 Commission said mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s “animus toward the United States stemmed not from his experiences there as a student, but rather from his violent disagreement with U.S. foreign policy favoring Israel.”

• 9/11 hijacking ringleader Mohammed Atta signed his will on the day Israel began its 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath attack on Lebanon. A friend said Atta was furious and used his will as a means of committing his life to the cause.

• An acquaintance of hijacker-pilot Marwan al-Shehhi asked why neither he nor Atta ever laughed. He replied, “How can you laugh when people are dying in Palestine?”

• Addressing the motives of the 9/11 hijackers, FBI Special Agent James Fitzgerald told the 9/11 Commission, “I believe they feel a sense of outrage against the United States. They identify with the Palestinian problem…and I believe they tend to focus their anger on the United States.”

The 9/11 attacks killed 2,977 people, resulted in roughly $50 billion in insured losses, and opened America’s Global War on Terror. In addition to its use as a false pretext for invading Iraq on Israel’s behalf, 9/11 prompted the US invasion of Afghanistan and the ensuing 20-year Fool’s Errand that took the lives of 2,459 US service-members (among 176,000 people in all), and cost $2.3 trillion.

With dread, we must now wonder what price may be extracted by terrorists motivated by US support of Israel’s ongoing, bloody rampage in Gaza, which has killed more than 56,000 people — more than half of them women and children — and deliberately rendered much of the territory uninhabitable.

The death and destruction is being meted out with American-supplied weapons, from F-15s, F-16s, and F-35 fighters to Apache attack helicopters, precision-guided munitions, artillery shells and rifles. No weapon has figured more heavily in the shocking civilian death toll and catastrophic physical destruction than US-supplied 2,000-pound MK-84 bombs, which have a lethal radius up to 1,198 feet. Even after outside observers were taken aback by Israel’s use of the bombs in densely-populated areas, the US government continued to ship more of them to Israel.

As if the death and destruction weren’t enough to incite deadly retaliation against Israel’s sponsor, depraved Israeli soldiers have used social media to document themselves gleefully demolishing entire residential blocks, smashing shops, toys and personal possessions, and — in a disturbingly widespread trend — dressing in the lingerie of displaced Palestinian women. All along, Israeli politicians, pundits and citizens openly endorse ethnic cleansing, forced starvation and other war crimes. Last week, multiple Israeli soldiers confirmed that, under orders, troops have been routinely using lethal weapons — including artillery shells — as a barbaric form of crowd control at food distribution points.

If innocent Americans are someday victimized by terrorists seeking to avenge the horror visited upon Gaza’s two million men, women and children with US-supplied weapons, watch for a perverse dynamic in which the attack is cited as a reason to redouble American support of Israel. Given the effectiveness of that spin, terrorism against the United States is a boon to the State of Israel. Reflecting that dark dynamic in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, Netanyahu seemingly struggled to contain his enthusiasm as he spoke to the New York Times:

Asked tonight what the attack meant for relations between the United States and Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, the former prime minister, replied, ‘‘It’s very good.” Then he edited himself: ”Well, not very good, but it will generate immediate sympathy.”

This self-perpetuating phenomenon — in which terrorism motivated by American support for Israel is used to promote American support for Israel — isn’t the only example of warped thinking about the relationship. America’s approach to the Middle East is awash in circular, Israel-centered logic. For example, Americans are told Israel is a critical ally because it serves as a “bulwark” against Iran — and that America needs a bulwark against Iran because it’s an adversary of Israel.

In one of several observations about Israel that led to him being relieved of his position leading the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Levant and Egypt branch in June, Army Colonel Nathan McCormack summed up the relationship this way:

“[Israel is] our worst ‘ally.’ We get literally nothing out of the ‘partnership’ other than the enmity of millions of people in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.”

Bit by bit, that realization is spreading throughout American society, as citizens observe Israel’s conduct in Gaza, scrutinize the Israel-Palestine conflict as never before, and grow increasingly wary of Israel’s attempts to drag the United States into another major war launched on false pretenses. That latter dimension has special resonance with countless US combat veterans who’ve come to the terrible realization that their sacrifices and those of their fallen comrades were ultimately made for the benefit of a foreign government — and to the detriment of America’s security.

Earlier this year, Pew Research found a majority of Americans now have a negative view of the State of Israel, with the most jarring shifts observed within Israel’s strongest bastion of support: the Republican Party. Guaranteeing that Israel’s standing is poised for more deterioration, bad feelings about Israel among Republicans under age 50 soared 15 points in just three years, with half of them now having an unfavorable view of the country.

In 2010, Meir Dagan, who headed Israel’s Mossad spy agency, warned a Knesset hearing that “Israel is gradually turning from an asset to the United States to a burden.” Fifteen years later, Israel’s status as an enormous, multidimensional burden on the American people is more evident than ever.

Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Join more than 3,500 Stark Realists who benefit from ad-free, monthly insights at starkrealities.substack.com

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Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge

The Trump administration recalled its top diplomat in Colombia, John McNamara, for “urgent consultations” on Thursday in response to what it described as “baseless and reprehensible” statements from senior Colombian officials. While the State Department did not specify which remarks prompted the move, it indicated that further actions would follow. In response, Colombian President Gustavo Petro recalled his country’s ambassador to the U.S., citing the need to reassess the bilateral relationship.

Tensions between the two nations have been rising, exacerbated by the recent shooting of opposition Senator Miguel Uribe, which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio blamed on inflammatory rhetoric from Colombia’s far-left government.

Earlier in the year, President Petro refused to accept deportation flights from the U.S., prompting President Trump to threaten tariffs and sanctions; however, that dispute was ultimately defused. Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia resigned amid the diplomatic fallout. 

The deterioration in bilateral relations comes as Colombia’s security situation has deteriorated under President Petro’s leftist regime. Once a close ally of the U.S., Colombia has descended into crime and chaos, with coca cultivation surging. 

Coca cultivation rose 10% last year to 253,000 hectares — enough to produce more than 2,600 tons of the drug. The National Liberation Army, or ELN, capitalized on the boom, seizing full control of the Catatumbo region near the Venezuelan border, one of the world’s most prolific drug corridors. -Bloomberg

Petro’s “total peace” policy—centered on negotiating with drug cartels—has deeply frustrated the Trump administration, which has spent several months seeking to dismantle cartel command-and-control networks across the Americas to stop the flow of illicit drugs into the U.S. 

According to Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with the matter, Petro’s perceived lack of cooperation on narcotics trafficking is a significant source of the tension with Washington. The situation has led to a pending decision in which the Trump administration may decertify Colombia as a reliable partner in the war on drugs, as early as this fall. 

“Washington’s relationship with Bogotá is rapidly going from bad to worse,” Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in the U.S. capital, told Bloomberg. 

Petro has publicly accused “right-wing extremists” of plotting to overthrow his government—an allegation that underscores internal power struggles and suggests growing political instability within the country. 

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

At least 21 states are reporting a COVID-19 variant that spread across China earlier this year, according to newly updated data provided by a private company.

A map released by the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) shows that 21 states in the United States are reporting COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1 as of Thursday afternoon.

The most recent estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that between June 8 and June 21, the NB.1.8.1 variant now makes up 43 percent of COVID-19 cases in the United States, making it now the dominant strain.

Separately, the CDC says that across the United States, COVID-19 levels are “currently very low.”

Outside the United States, Chinese health officials said in June that the NB.1.8.1 was driving a wave of infections across the country. And Chinese doctors at Peking University last month predicted a peak of nationwide COVID-19 cases in July, also stating that it may become the next dominant global strain, with symptoms including a sharp sore throat, fever, runny nose, vomiting, and diarrhea.

Due to the Chinese Communist Party’s history of covering up information and publishing unreliable data, including data on COVID-19 infections and deaths, information provided by local doctors and health workers could provide more context about the situation on the ground in China.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has designated NB.1.8.1 as a “variant under monitoring” and considers the public health risk low at the global level. Current vaccines are expected to remain effective.

Previously, WHO said some western Pacific countries have reported increases in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, but there’s nothing so far to suggest that the disease associated with the new variant is more severe than other variants.

NB.1.8.1 has been dubbed the “razor throat” or “razor blade throat” variant in media reports, including in India, the UK, China, and by The Associated Press. Several Chinese doctors told The Epoch Times in May that their patients had reported the symptom.

Separately, the WHO announced that the XFG strain is now a “variant under monitoring” in a report released in late June. XFG is estimated to make up around 14 percent of cases in the United States, and GISAID isn’t tracking the variant so far.

The spread of the variant also comes as a recent poll released on June 30 suggested that 70 percent of Americans would still attempt to test themselves for COVID-19 if they believe they contracted it. The survey was carried out in 2024 but was released earlier this week.

The survey, from UMass Chan Medical School and released through the JAMA Network Open journal, found that 70 percent of Americans indicated they would test if they suspected a COVID-19 infection, more than five years after the virus spread across the United States.

“Early identification of infection enables prompt care and steps to reduce spread,” the researchers wrote. “Timely initiation of oral antiviral medications is associated with lower hospitalizations, deaths, and long-COVID incidence among adults at high risk.”

In May, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that COVID-19 vaccines are no longer recommended for healthy children and pregnant women, while the Food and Drug Administration on June 25 expanded existing warnings on the two leading COVID-19 vaccines regarding two forms of heart inflammation. The warnings refer to Myocarditis, which is inflammation of the heart muscle, and pericarditis, the inflammation of a sac that lines the heart.

The Epoch Times contacted the CDC for comment and hasn’t received a response as of Thursday.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a major deportation victory on Thursday. On the same day, the GOP-led House passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in a narrow 218–214 vote—legislation that paves the way for over one million deportations annually. Meanwhile, the first illegals arrived at “Alligator Alcatraz” in the Florida Everglades, with outbound flights soon to follow. With these massive wins stacking up, Trump has secured yet another victory: the hearts of the American people, who overwhelmingly support this effort to restore national security.

Let’s start with news from the Supreme Court. In short, the nation’s highest court ruled that an activist lower-court judge had severely overstepped by attempting to block the deportation of eight criminal illegal migrants to South Sudan, despite a prior order from the high court authorizing the removal.

In a 7–2 decision, the Supreme Court sharply rebuked U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy—an appointee from the radical leftist Biden-Harris regime era—for defying its June 23 ruling, which permitted Trump officials to proceed with deportations of criminal illegal aliens to third-world countries. The majority held that Murphy lacked the authority to enforce a previous injunction that the justices had already stayed. 

Moving on, with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—set for President Trump’s signature on Friday afternoon—the bill permanently secures the border through the largest investment in immigration enforcement in U.S. history. It includes funding for over one million deportations annually and provides resources to complete the southern border wall. 

Tailwinds for Trump’s deportation agenda are gaining serious momentum, and one key driver is public sentiment. As it turns out, even legacy mainstream media polls show a clear majority of Americans support the administration’s illegal alien crackdown. CNN hosts appeared visibly stunned by the numbers, revealing that the public is firmly behind Trump in restoring law and order nationwide. 

BREAKING: MAJORITY of Americans want ALL ILLEGALS HERE DEPORTED!

Some polls have it at over 60%!

Mass deportations are POPULAR…let’s make it happen! pic.twitter.com/QVtxe6lT0j

— Chief Trumpster (@ChiefTrumpster) January 22, 2025

Trump’s overwhelming support from voters for mass deportations suggests the left’s NGO propaganda machine is failing to control the narrative. The optics look increasingly dire for Democrats, especially as some within their ranks openly cheerlead radical Marxism.

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

Excerpt from the July Issue of The Bitcoin Capitalist – ‘The Stablecoin Standard’

Here is the the argument for this section of the Bitcoin Capitalist entitled ‘Bitcoin and Crypto Macro’:

“This sums up everything we’ve been seeing over this past cycle – Bitcoin settling in as the base layer for the next generation of financial instruments, with stablecoins acting as the rails between the legacy dollar system and new fintech-enabled one.”

Here is the whole section.

*  *  *

I want to reiterate something I used as the opening quote to our Bitcoin Treasuries Playbook, by way of Willy Woo:

“The biggest fintech opportunity in the next decade is not DeFi.

It’s the merger of BTC + TradFi.”

This sums up everything we’ve been seeing over this past cycle – Bitcoin settling in as the base layer for the next generation of financial instruments, with stablecoins acting as the rails between the legacy dollar system and new fintech-enabled one.

Billionaire investor and VC Tim Draper remarked on Bitcoin’s continued dominance, making the argument that what we are witnessing is an example of a “winner-take-all” phenomenon:

Bitcoin recently hit 61% market share, up from 40% after the first boom-bust cycle and 50% after the last one.

There is a gravitational pull toward Bitcoin. All the successful innovations on other platforms are being now ported to Bitcoin.

This matters so much more than people realize.

All the innovation that started in altcoins (smart contracts, blockchain applications, ordinals) is moving to Bitcoin.

I liken this phenomenon to Microsoft in the operating system days.

When Lotus 1-2-3 took off, Microsoft created Excel and brought it into the OS. WordPerfect succeeded, so Microsoft built Word. Then Microsoft bought PowerPoint early. All of these applications became standard with Microsoft, while the early startups were marginalized. 

Bitcoin is worth $1.8 trillion. The next largest token, Ethereum is only worth $250 billion. Bitcoin gets most of the programmers now. They are gravitating toward Bitcoin.

The five applications that really matter are being built on Bitcoin—DeFi (Peer to Peer Payments, Trading, Exchanges, financial inclusion etc), Smart Contracts (supply chain transparency and traceability, asset trading and resource tracking), Ordinals, Runes, and Layer 2 solutions like low cost micropayments.

This gravitational pull is accelerating.

Every entrepreneur building on Bitcoin has the entire ecosystem’s momentum behind them.

Smart entrepreneurs are always building on the platform with the strongest gravitational pull.

That platform is Bitcoin.

When people ask what Bitcoin will be worth in 5 years, I say it will be worth one bitcoin. It may be infinite against the dollar as the dollar continues to inflate into nothingness.

Bitcoin’s dominance was 61% when Draper posted that less than a week ago – it’s now 64%:

Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to languish, although there are those who say it’s undervalued and poised for a spectacular comeback – I just don’t see it.7

As noted in the Treasuries Playbook, we’re now starting to see ETH Treasury companies springing up; we mentioned SBET in that report – currently trading even lower than when we first cited it.

Now a Bitcoin miner of all things, BitMine Immersion Tech (NYSE: BMNR) has appointed Tom Lee (not the Motley Crüe drummer) as Chairman – and closed a $250M funding round to build an ETH treasury.

BitMine has the 62nd-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury at 161 BTC – and it’s unclear if they plan to liquidate that for more ETH purchases. I advise against it.

Bit Digital (BTBT) – also eschewing my advice – will be exiting Bitcoin mining entirely to “become an Ethereum pure-play”: they will sell off their Bitcoin (which according to their March investor deck was 742 BTC) in order to acquire ETH – and sell off or wind down their entire Bitcoin mining operation. We’ve never owned BTBT, good luck.

We did hold Sol Strategies, who set out to build a Solana Treasury company about a year ago, and we managed to ride that one near perfectly – exiting our position (for a stellar 2043% return) when I surmised that the memecoin trade was over, and there would be no alt-season as we’d seen in previous cycles.

Sol Strategies also had a BTC treasury – which I had hoped they would keep as an anchor – but they sold it off to buy more SOL, close to the highs – meanwhile Bitcoin has gone on to fresh new highs.

Future MBA and finance students may someday look back on this era and surmise that crypto treasury strategies can only succeed when the asset being stockpiled is the dominant asset, and it probably needs to be over some magical hurdle like 50% market dominance.

It also needs to have a rolling four and ten year CAGR that is higher than anything else, otherwise there’s no point in stockpiling it versus something with a higher RoR (see the “Bitcoin is the new Benchmark” section in the Playbook).

In other words, it has to be Bitcoin and all other treasury plays will stiff. Bank on it.

So, if Bitcoin is the only game in town for corporate treasuries and for the base layer of the next-gen financial system, “why isn’t BTC going up?”, is the question we’re seeing a lot of on social media…

Especially after that horrific crash all the way down to (checks notes), $98K on June 22nd – losing the psychologically important $100K level for nearly a whole eight hours.

People were permanently scarred – most likely from the Class of ’24.

One of the things I’ve been wrong about for this entire cycle was that we should be expecting a couple of 30% to 40% drawdowns, at least.

But there hasn’t been anything over 30% since November 2022, when the crypto winter ended, and Bitcoin bottomed at $16K (yes, really).

The chart below has the two major drawdowns of this cycle: the pull back after the spot ETFs approvals and post-halving hangover look like a single grind down – and that little squiggle in there in August was when the entire financial system shit itself after the Bank of Japan spoiled everything with a surprise rate hike that was a measly 15 basis points over expectations.

In this look at the very question of why “number not go up”, Bitcoin Magazine examined the HODL waves and concluded that there are just a lot of whales sitting on ultra cheap BTC who are taking their lifetstyle chips off the table, with over 240,000 BTC being sold by wallets that have been holding for one to five years in recent months.

“This selling has largely counterbalanced institutional accumulation. Given that daily miner issuance still adds another ~450 BTC to the market, we see why price has struggled to break higher: the market is in a state of supply-demand equilibrium”

Given the systemic shocks and seemingly existential crises that have been arriving at a steady clip (Japan imploding, bond yields, Middle East war, Ukraine War, etc), “Why isn’t Bitcoin Up?” isn’t the foremost question in my mind.

“Why isn’t it going down more during these periods?”, is what I’ve been wondering.

It is possible, even looking likely, that the market structure has fundamentally changed, possibly to the point where (dare I say it?) the four-year cycle could be a thing of the past.

Or maybe elongated, this other Bitcoin Mag piece looks at the 200-week Moving Average compared to prior cycles, noting that:

“a remarkably consistent pattern has emerged when the 200WMA surpasses its prior all-time high level. Across multiple cycles, when this crossover occurs,

Bitcoin has either peaked or come extremely close to peaking in price.”

Should that pattern hold up, we seem to be looking at somewhere around May or June 2026 for this cycle to top out (we would normally expect BTC to hit a cycle-top in Q4 this year or early ’26, if the four-year cycle holds up).

Prompted by military losses and shifting regional geopolitics, the Lebanese political and militant group Hezbollah is considering a major strategic shift that would see the group undertake a major disarmament, Reuters has reported, citing three sources familiar with the group’s deliberations.  

In solidarity with Gaza, Hezbollah began attacking Israel on the day after the Oct 7 2023 Hamas invasion of Israel, but suffered mightily for doing so. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) hammered Lebanon with airstrikes and then an invasion. In September 2024, Israel unleashed a devious mass attack on Hezbollah members, detonating thousands of pagers that Israeli intelligence had loaded with the explosive PETN. Nearly 3,000 people were wounded and at least a dozen killed, including two children. That same month, an Israeli airstrike killed the group’s leader for 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah.   

Pursuant to the November ceasefire that ended its recent war with Israel, Hezbollah has turned over security responsibilities south of the Litani River to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Alongside that shift, the group has also handed over weapons depots in that part of the country, Reuters reports. Now the group’s leadership is considering a handover of its formidable missile and drone arsenal — which pose the greatest threat to Israel — provided Israel withdraws its remaining troops from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah would retain lighter weapons, including antitank missiles. 

Israel has continued to strike targets in southern Lebanon. Late June brought the biggest Israeli attack on Lebanon since the ceasefire agreement, with the IDF claiming it had struck a “significant underground project” used by Hezbollah. Thursday brought this bystander-endangering strike, which the IDF said was aimed at an arms smuggler associated with Iran’s Quds Force: 

BREAKING | Israel has bombed a vehicle on a crowded highway just 8 miles south of Beirut, Lebanon.

The attack is part of near-daily Israeli strikes on Lebanon despite a ceasefire with Hezbollah in place since November. The Israeli military said it targeted a figure involved in… pic.twitter.com/tfrytDr3WI

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 3, 2025

Hezbollah’s position has also been weakened by the December fall of Syria’s Assad regime, as a years-long US-led regime-change effort finally culminated in the secular, Iran-friendly Bashar al-Assad being replaced by the former leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, a Syrian offshoot of al Qaeda that Hezbollah had fought against; Hezbollah also helped turn the tide against ISIS. The turnover of Syrian control severed the overland supply route connecting Hezbollah to its principal sponsor, Iran. In February, the Lebanese government banned commercial flights between Beirut and Tehran, in deference to Israeli accusations that Iran used the flights to ship cash to Hezbollah. 

Last month brought a telling illustration of Hezbollah’s weakened position. After years of anticipation that the group would unleash its missile arsenal in the event Israel launched a major attack on Iran, Hezbollah stood on the sidelines during last month’s 12-day war, choosing to confine its support of Iran to official statements condemning Israel’s aggression, with a side of saber-rattling. In 2018, Hezbollah was estimated to have a rocket and missile arsenal comprising more than 130,000 projectiles, making it the most potent non-state military force on Earth.   

Internal Lebanese politics are also playing a role in Hezbollah’s reconsideration of the extent to which it remains a military force in addition to a political one: 

Lebanon’s government also wants Hezbollah to surrender the rest of its weapons as it works to establish a state monopoly on arms. Failure to do so could stir tensions with the group’s Lebanese rivals, which accuse Hezbollah of leveraging its military might to impose its will in state affairs and repeatedly dragging Lebanon into conflicts. — Reuters

If it comes to pass, Hezbollah’s demilitarization would represent a huge shift in the Levant’s geopolitical picture. With the group having served as both a defender of Lebanon and an instigator of fighting with Israel that brought destruction upon Lebanon, time will tell if the development is a net positive for the country. 

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on July 4 that she expects boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. to be deported to Mexico to serve a prison sentence after his arrest in Los Angeles by U.S. immigration authorities.

“The hope is that he will be deported and serve the sentence in Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during a news briefing Friday, referring to charges the boxer faces in Mexico related to arms and drug trafficking. She added that Mexico had not previously arrested Chávez because he had been living primarily in the United States.

Chávez, 39, was arrested on July 2 by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in Studio City, Los Angeles, just days after he lost a boxing match to social media influencer Jake Paul in Anaheim, California. His attorney, Michael Goldstein, said federal agents detained the boxer while he was riding a scooter outside his residence in the upscale neighborhood near Hollywood.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Chávez overstayed a tourist visa he obtained when he entered the United States in August 2023. The agency also accused Chavez of making multiple fraudulent statements on an application for lawful permanent residency, based on his marriage to U.S. citizen Frida Munoz, who is connected to the Sinaloa cartel through a prior relationship with the son of cartel kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.

Chavez has an active arrest warrant issued in 2023 for alleged involvement with the Sinaloa cartel and trafficking of firearms, ammunition, and explosives. U.S. immigration officials say he has links to organized crime and called him an “egregious public safety threat,” but a Biden-era entry in a DHS law enforcement system indicated he was not an immigration enforcement priority.

“It is shocking the previous administration flagged this criminal illegal alien as a public safety threat, but chose to not prioritize his removal and let him leave and COME BACK into our country,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement. “Under President Trump, no one is above the law—including world-famous athletes. Our message to any cartel affiliates in the U.S. is clear: We will find you and you will face consequences. The days of unchecked cartel violence are over.”

Chavez’s attorney has denied the allegations, calling them “outrageous” and suggesting they are simply “another headline to terrorize the community.”

Chavez, son of legendary boxing champion Julio César Chávez Sr., has had several brushes with the law in the United States, including a DUI conviction in 2012, driving without a license, and illegal gun possession charges in 2024.

His boxing career has also faced setbacks due to failed drug tests, suspensions, and missing target weights for scheduled fights.

Watch Live:

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Update (1926ET)

At least 43 people, including 15 children, have died after devastating flash floods ripped through a Christian camp along the banks of the Guadalupe River in Central Texas, according to Sheriff Larry Leitha. 

Search and rescue operations intensified Saturday afternoon, as 27 girls remain missing after floodwaters devastated Camp Mystic in Kerr County. Officials earlier acknowledged the diminishing likelihood of finding the missing alive.

“The process is going to keep going,” W. Nim Kidd, the chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, told reporters earlier, adding, “We’re not going to stop until we find everyone that’s missing.”

Texas Governor Greg Abbott told reporters that more than 850 people were rescued in the first 36 hours of the search operation.

The three-day rainfall totals in the region are equivalent to those typically seen in a once-in-a-century

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said earlier that President Trump is “devastated” by the flash floods, adding that the federal government is shifting air assets to the region to help with rescue operations.

Before this tragic extreme event, the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation displayed a “Map of Rain-Enhancement Projects in Texas” that shows multiple projects were near Kerr County.

A theory suggesting cloud seeding may have played a role in the Texas storm has gone viral on X

🚨TEXAS Rain ENHANCEMENT “Weather Modification” Projects DIRECTLY over the FLOODED AREAS near Kerr County! pic.twitter.com/fqUDLwtTwh

— In2ThinAir (@In2ThinAir) July 5, 2025

@ADoricko @RainmakerCorp

For public accountability:

Can you confirm, with full transparency, whether any cloud seeding or atmospheric modification operations, by your company or affiliates, were conducted in or around Hunt, Texas or the Upper Guadalupe River basin on July 3 or… pic.twitter.com/nsnVSVpSIU

— Brian Gamble (@briangamble_v1) July 5, 2025

Meanwhile, critics dismiss the claim, calling it “absolutely preposterous.”

Speculation that a cloud seeing research plane caused the Texas flooding is absolutely preposterous.

The research aircraft last flew last week.

Where, on a Piper PA-24, are you going to put 4 trillion gallons (33 trillion pounds) of water?

Anyone? Conspiracy theorists? https://t.co/KX9mwcuZkH pic.twitter.com/amoeOCooZr

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) July 5, 2025

.    .     . 

At least 24 people have died, and dozens remain missing after 1.8 trillion gallons of rain fell across Central Texas, unleashing catastrophic flooding in the Texas Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau early Friday.

Among the missing are between 23 and 25 girls from an all-girls summer camp along the Guadalupe River, officials told reporters late Friday. Earlier, officials reported that 23 girls were unaccounted for from Camp Mystic, which had more than 750 children at the time. 

“The flooding damage is catastrophic,” Kerrville Police Officer Jonathan Lamb told The Washington Post, adding, “It’s the worst flood that we’ve ever seen.“

Ran some supplies out to Kerr County with Brandon and met up with Wes Virdell.

This is right around the corner from Camp Mystic, where 20 to 25 little girls went missing .

Miles and miles of cars, trees, and homes piled on top of one another.

First responders told us it’s a… pic.twitter.com/vMyfhqlKfL

— Donut Operator 🍩 (@DonutOperator) July 5, 2025

my baby cousin renee is one of the few that are still missing from camp mystic. please send prayers she is only 8 years old ❤️ pic.twitter.com/eYRr5bSqDu

— David Axelrod, (@davidaxeirod97) July 5, 2025

My heart feels so heavy right now.

As of 3:30 PM on July 4th, 23 children remain missing at Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, along the Guadalupe River.

Please keep these kids, their families, everyone impacted by the flooding, and all the brave first responders in your prayers. pic.twitter.com/NMeykdeWL7

— Mayra Flores (@MayraFlores4TX) July 5, 2025

The Guadalupe River surged 26 feet in 45 minutes, according to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick. The National Weather Service had forecasted 3 to 6 inches in the region in just a few short hours, but totals exceeded that, especially in Hunt, a town near Kerrville, which received about 6.5 inches. This event is being considered a one-in-100-years rainfall event. 

Flooding in Texas was linked to the convergence of two tropical moisture plumes, one from the eastern Pacific & another from the Gulf.

This produced near-record high atmospheric moisture.

Global precipitable water levels have been running 3rd-highest on record in recent months. pic.twitter.com/rSngxTkUKZ

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 5, 2025

“We remain in a search-and-rescue posture right now,” Governor Greg Abbott told reporters overnight. He signed a disaster declaration for several counties that paved the way for better access to aid and resources amid a massive search and rescue operation underway.

🚨 WATCH: HEROES in helicopters are repelling down to rescue children trapped in the Texas floods

Many of these children are believed to have been swept away at Camp Mystic, and several have been airlifted out so far

God bless these first responders. Keep praying. pic.twitter.com/HNc9TLoQyP

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 5, 2025

🚨 BREAKING: At least TWO of the girls missing from Camp Mystic after the flooding in Texas have been rescued

23 were originally reported missing from the Christian summer camp.

KEEP PRAYING! It’s working! pic.twitter.com/Ri0IborHmp

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 4, 2025

Patrick said 400 to 500 personnel were on the ground involved in search and rescue efforts. He added that helicopters and drones have been deployed to the area.

Mystic Camp update. As of this morning 20 girls are still missing. 😞 This tragedy just rips into my soul because both of my daughters are the same age as those missing. Imagine you send them off to a camp for fun with friends & what unfolds is the worst nightmare a parent can… pic.twitter.com/7kIQZrPA28

— John (@market_sleuth) July 5, 2025

“Multiple helicopters are performing search & rescue. President Trump committed ANYTHING Texas needs,” Sen. Ted Cruz wrote on X. 

Late Friday, President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that his administration is working with Abbott on the response effort. “We’ll take care of them,” the president said, calling the catastrophic flooding event terrible and shocking. 

Initial signs suggest a shift in federal posture toward increased scrutiny of rogue non-governmental organizations (NGOs) potentially engaged in domestic color revolution operations aimed at sowing chaos and destruction. These NGOs are reportedly backed by a mix of left-leaning (and often anti-American) high-net-worth individuals, U.S. taxpayer funds, corporate donations, and potentially hostile foreign actors.

Shortly after the anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles last month, FBI Director Kash Patel stated, “The FBI is investigating any and all monetary connections responsible for these riots.” 

Patel’s comments are merely a hint that federal investigations are intensifying on a network of leftist NGOs. Some of these NGOs are assessed to be deeply aligned with Marxists and are allegedly advocating for the dismantling of capitalism through color revolution operations aimed at collapsing the system as part of a broader ideological realignment—a so-called “great reset” oriented toward socialism and, ultimately, digital communism.

Independent researcher and content creator Nate Friedman (27, New York-based) has released a series of videos on X detailing the command and control structures of these dark-money-funded NGOs operating in New York City. Some of these NGOs are aligned with Marxism, potentially receiving overseas funding. His findings suggest these organizations are engaged in destabilization operations.

🚨Another paid protestor tries to stop my interview and then I expose him and the people he works for. The people’s forum and Singham want to destroy America from within… WATCH 👇 pic.twitter.com/YK7qPP2DjV

— Nate Friedman (@NateFriedman97) July 1, 2025

In a separate video, Friedman uncovered what he called “another Soros soldier.” 

🚨Paid protestor stops my interview. Then I expose him all the way back to the columbia encampments. pic.twitter.com/MOKPaJQVx8

— Nate Friedman (@NateFriedman97) July 4, 2025

Friedman appeared on Newsmax to discuss his alarming findings. The segment focused on the financial and ideological backers of these organizations.

Honored to go on NEWSMAX to discuss paid protesting! pic.twitter.com/wlCDQRBSjo

— Nate Friedman (@NateFriedman97) July 1, 2025

The Newsmax host told Friedman, “It sounds like these NGOs want to destroy this country.” 

Related: 

• X CEO Yaccarino Stunned, Musk Intrigued After Reading Bombshell Report On Far-Left NGOs Targeting Tesla

• Los Angeles Warzone: “Insurrectionist Mobs” Attack Cops, Set Fires, Block 101 Freeway

• Riots Erupt At LA ICE Facility As Mexican BLM Clone Unleashes Color Revolution Operation

• Rogue NGOs Prepare For Nationwide Color Revolution; Walmart Heiress Calls For “Mobilization”

• FBI’s Patel Probes Far-Left NGOs Funding Anti-ICE Riots

• Watch Live: House DOGE Subcommittee Exposes “Public Funds, Private Agendas: NGOs Gone Wild”

• DOGE Hones In On Shady Climate “Popup NGO Shell” That Received Billions From Biden

• House Republicans Probe China-Based Billionaire Allegedly Bankrolling Anti-ICE Riots

• Leftist Activist Calls For Sanctions On America, Has Deep Ties To Democrat NGO Network

• Zohran Mamdani Admits He Hates Capitalism… Allied With Socialist Operative Linked To Marxist Terror Group

• Report Warns “Woke Army” & Dark-Money Funded NGOs Could Take Iran’s War “To America’s Streets”

• Dark-Money Network Funneled Millions Into ‘No Kings’ Nationwide Color Revolution Operation

• Far-Left Panic: Dark Money NGO Floods Baltimore Airwaves With Propaganda To Save Governor

“Nonprofits have become the main vehicle for subverting America and destabilizing society. There is seemingly no enforcement in this sector for criminal activity, money laundering, or as seen with the Neville Roy Singham network, acting on behalf of foreign interests. America cannot continue on this path where a tax-exempt nonprofit can promote a protest, have partner nonprofits cosponsor it, yet none of these entities are held responsible for any damages,” stated Jason Curtis Anderson from One City Rising.

The American public may soon gain increased visibility into the operations and objectives of dark-money-funded, leftist-aligned NGOs alleged to be pursuing the systemic destabilization of the nation. As federal investigative efforts intensify, the ‘America First’ movement has finally begun to recognize its true domestic opponent: Marxist-aligned NGOs and those who fund the rogue machine. 

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Restaurant chain Waffle House announced Tuesday that it has removed a surcharge on eggs that was implemented earlier this year amid soaring egg prices.

“Egg-cellent news … as of June 2, the egg surcharge is officially off the menu. Thanks for understanding!” Waffle House said in a July 1 post on social media platform X.

Waffle House had added a 50-cent surcharge in February.

“While we hope these price fluctuations will be short-lived we cannot predict how long this shortage will last,” it said at the time.

The restaurant chain, with 1,900 locations spread across 25 states, serves around 272 million eggs every year.

Egg prices have been rising following an outbreak of avian flu that has affected millions of birds since 2022, negatively impacting egg production.

In August 2023, the U.S. city average price of a dozen eggs was $2.04, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

This more than tripled to $6.22 per dozen by March 2025. However, prices have since dipped, with eggs costing $4.54 per dozen in May, down 27 percent from the peak in March.

The fall in prices came after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a $1 billion strategy on Feb. 26 aimed at combating avian flu.

In a June 11 statement, the White House credited President Donald Trump for “defeating inflation,” including the falling prices of eggs.

“I ate there [Waffle House] today to celebrate!” Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-Fla.) replied to a post celebrating Waffle House’s decision.

In a June 27 report, the Department of Agriculture said wholesale prices for graded, loose, white large shell eggs fell by $0.19 to $2.54 per dozen “with a weak undertone.”

Egg Prices and Flu

The strategy Rollins introduced in February to fight avian flu and reduce egg prices set aside $500 million for biosecurity measures at egg farms, $400 million in financial relief for farmers, and $100 million for research on vaccines.

In a June 26 statement, the USDA provided an update on the strategy, highlighting that wholesale egg prices have dropped by 64 percent, and retail prices by 27 percent, from their peak earlier this year.

“When President Trump entered office, the cost of eggs was at a record high, seriously denting consumers’ wallets after years of awful inflation,” Rollins said.

“On my first day as Secretary, we got to work to implement a five-pronged strategy to improve biosecurity on the farm and lower egg prices on grocery store shelves. The plan has worked, and families are seeing relief with egg prices.”

More than 900 biosecurity assessments have been carried out across the United States so far, USDA said, adding that the agency is covering the full cost of assessments, as well as part of the costs involved in improving biosecurity measures at farms.

The agency is offering financial relief and support to farmers to accelerate the repopulation of poultry flocks following any detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

“Since February 27, 2025, when USDA increased indemnity values available to producers affected by HPAI, over $70 million has been paid out to directly support layer flocks,” the USDA said.

“These increased indemnity rates have provided producers a level of support and stability to help them in moving forward to repopulate their flocks as quickly as possible.”

USDA has also boosted imports to stabilize the domestic egg supply and ease the burden on consumers.

“Since January 2025, more than 26 million dozen shell eggs have been imported from Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, Turkey, and South Korea for breaking and pasteurization, increasing the quantity of eggs available to consumers,” it said.

In a June 19 post, the United Egg Producers association said the avian flu has affected 53 commercial egg farms so far this year, with more than 39 million birds impacted.

Flu detections at egg farms have “slowed in recent months,” the association said. In January and February, 22 farms were affected each month. This dropped to three farms in May and one in June.