A U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) employee and five others have been arrested for allegedly defrauding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) of more than $66 million in unauthorized transactions, according to Fox Business.

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins called it “one of the largest stings” in USDA history, emphasizing, “At USDA, we are hyper-focused… on rooting out that waste, fraud and abuse.” She added, “This is a new day, and President Trump promised… that it would not be the government that we know.”

The defendants — Michael Kehoe, Mohamad Nawafleh, Omar Alrawashdeh, Gamal Obaid, Emad Alrawashdeh, and USDA employee Arlasa Davis — face charges of “conspiracy to steal government funds and to misappropriate U.S. Department of Agriculture benefits,” according to prosecutors.

Fox Business News writes that the scheme, which began in 2019, allegedly involved Kehoe supplying 160 unauthorized electronic benefit transfer (EBT) cards to stores across the New York area, enabling over $30 million in fraudulent transactions. Prosecutors say Davis sold confidential information to criminals, undermining a program that “vulnerable New Yorkers depend on for basic nutrition,” U.S. Attorney Perry Carbone said.

“These charges should be a reminder that those who exploit anti-poverty programs for personal gain will be held accountable for their crimes,” Carbone added.

According to officials, the group also submitted fraudulent USDA applications, misappropriated license numbers, and doctored documents to benefit unauthorized stores.

Rollins vowed ongoing action: “That is no longer going to be allowed here in Washington,” she said. “This is not the ‘one and only.’ There are going to be many more to come… We’re going to make sure that we’re delivering on our promises to the taxpayers.” She concluded, “It’s just the tip of the spear… There’s going to be real consequences for breaking the law.”

Police said a male suspect was taken into custody after a Sunday afternoon attack that “set people on fire” in Boulder, Colorado, in what the FBI director described as a “targeted” act of terror.

Authorities identified the attacker who threw a Molotov cocktail at a pro-Israel march in Boulder, injuring multiple people, and whom MSNBC described only as a “white male”…

MSNBC: Boulder terrorist a “white male.” pic.twitter.com/e6xixKoVS4

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 1, 2025

… as Mohamad Soliman.

Breaking 🚨Boulder, Colorado authorities have arrested a man by the name of Mohamad Soliman .

Video shows the alleged suspect dressed up as a landscaper when he threw Molotov cocktails at the group, burning several including children. pic.twitter.com/oSVo4Gw0Wy

— primalkey (@primalkey) June 1, 2025

Information on the attack, which occurred near a walk to remember the Israeli hostages who remain in Gaza, was “very preliminary,” Boulder Police Chief Stephen Redfearn said. But he noted the man was apprehended following calls to police dispatch of someone with a weapon who was “setting people on fire.”

Mohammad Soliman just lit a bunch of elderly Jews on fire in Colorado while shouting “Free Palestine”

Police: “Too early for a motive” pic.twitter.com/qElnrTTzwS

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) June 1, 2025

While FBI heads Kash Patel and Dan Bongino described the incident as a “targeted terror attack,” Redfearn stressed it was too soon to speculate about a motive.

FBI personnel are on the scene in Boulder, Colorado, along with local law enforcement.
We are investigating this incident as an act of terror, and targeted violence. All of the necessary assets will be dedicated to this investigation.
If you have any investigative tips please…

— Dan Bongino (@FBIDDBongino) June 1, 2025

“We are not calling it a terror attack at this moment,” Redfearn said. “This was a beautiful Sunday afternoon in downtown Boulder on Pearl Street and this act was unacceptable,” he said. “I ask that you join me in thinking about the victims, the families of those victims, and everyone involved in this tragedy.”

The attack follows the arrest of a Chicago-born man in the fatal shooting of two Israeli embassy employees in Washington, D.C. Someone opened fire on a group of people leaving an event hosted by the American Jewish Committee, an advocacy group that fights antisemitism and supports Israel.

“We are saddened and heartbroken to learn that an incendiary device was thrown at walkers at the Run for Their Lives walk on Pearl Street as they were raising awareness for the hostages still held in Gaza,” a statement attributed to Boulder’s Jewish Community said.

Colorado Governor Jared Polis posted on social media that he was closely monitoring the situation, adding that “hate-filled acts of any kind are unacceptable.”

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Georgia-based Hormel Foods Corporation is withdrawing roughly 256,185 pounds of canned beef stew products from across the United States as they could be “contaminated with foreign material, specifically wood,” the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) said in a May 28 statement.

The recall is applicable to 20-oz. metal cans of “Dinty Moore Beef Stew” manufactured on Feb. 4, with a “best by” date of February 2028 and lot code “T02045,” the agency said. The items were shipped to retail locations across the country.

Wooden fragments in food pose a serious health risk as sharp-edged pieces can injure the insides of the throat, stomach, or intestines. In some cases, the fragments may also cause choking.

The contamination was discovered after the company “notified FSIS that they had received three consumer complaints reporting pieces of wood in the beef stew product,” said the announcement.

“There have been no confirmed reports of injury due to consumption of this product. Anyone concerned about an injury should contact a healthcare provider.”

FSIS said it was concerned the items may still be in the pantries of some customers and advised people who have bought the recalled products not to consume them. The items should either be discarded or returned to the place of purchase.

The recall was given a Department of Agriculture (USDA) “High-Class I” designation, which is only issued where there is a “reasonable probability that the use of the product will cause serious, adverse health consequences or death.”

Individuals with queries about the recall can get in touch with Hormel at 800-523-4635.

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, Hormel said that “as a Fortune 500, global branded food company, we are committed to maintaining the highest standards for our product.”

“Out of an abundance of caution, Hormel Foods is voluntarily recalling 17,080 cases of a single code date of 20 oz. Dinty Moore Beef Stew as it may contain extraneous wood material. No other Dinty Moore products are affected,” it added.

Federal agencies have issued multiple food recalls and alerts in recent months, citing the presence of wooden fragments.

In April, the agency issued a public health alert for various soup and bowl food items, warning these foods could contain wood. The products were distributed in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan.

On March 18, a recall notice from the Food and Drug Administration said Virginia-based Nestle USA was pulling out several frozen items due to contamination by a “wood-like material.”

The company issued a recall after consumers contacted the company regarding the issue, including a potential choking incident.

Food Safety Inspections

Foreign substances such as plastic and metal have also triggered FSIS food recalls and alerts.

On April 19, FSIS issued an alert on pork carnitas from Texas-based Cargill Meat Solutions since the items were suspected to be contaminated with pieces of metal. A recall was not issued in the case as the products were no longer available for purchase.

The issue was identified when the company alerted FSIS about finding equipment damage during routine checks that could have contaminated the products with metal pieces.

Earlier on April 5, Illinois-based Johnsonville, LLC, recalled over 22,600 pounds of cheddar bratwurst products, citing potential for being contaminated with hard plastic.

The company told FSIS it had received two complaints from customers about hard plastic material being found in the food item.

The Trump administration has ramped up efforts to ensure the safety of America’s food supply.

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins recently announced a $14.5 million funding increase for states to use for their meat and poultry safety inspection programs, USDA said in a May 27 statement.

“Without this funding, States may not have the resources to continue their own inspection programs which ensure products are safe,” the agency said.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon argued at the inaugural Reagan National Economic Forum in California that the U.S. should should stockpile guns, ammunition and drones rather than Bitcoin.

“We should stockpiling guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, you know, rare earths. We know we need to do it. It’s not a mystery,” Dimon said, referencing President Donald Trump’s executive order in March that established a Bitcoin reserve.

Dimon is by now well known for his dislike/disapproval of cryptocurrencies (even though his own bank now allows clients to trade them); which should come as no surprise since the concept of sovereignty and democratizing finance is the nemesis of the established ‘trust us with your cash’ regime of banking rent-seekers.

“We should be stockpiling bullets,” he continued.

“Like, you know, the military guys tell you that, you know, if there’s a war in the South China Sea, we have missiles for seven days.

Okay, come on. I mean, we can’t say that with a straight face and think that’s okay.

So we know what to do. We just got to now go about doing it. Get the people together, roll up our sleeves, you know, have the debates.”

The sweeping discussion covered everything from the domestic US economy to how the world’s “tectonic plates are shifting” in geopolitics in the form of wars, proxy terrorists and the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons. 

Dimon underscored during his address that he does not view China as America’s top adversary, and instead pointed his attention to the “enemy within” that could lead to the U.S. losing its status as the world’s leader. 

“I’m not as worried about China,” Dimon said. 

“China is a potential adversary. They’re doing a lot of things well, they have a lot of problems. But what I really worry about is us. Can we get our own act together, our own values, our own capability, our own management?”

Dimon warned that a crack in the bond market is “going to happen” after the US government and Fed “massively overdid” spending and quantitative easing.

“I just don’t know if it’s going to be a crisis in six months or six years, and I’m hoping that we change both the trajectory of the debt and the ability of market makers to make markets,” the JPM CEO said Friday at the Reagan National Economic Forum. 

“Unfortunately, it may be that we need that to wake us up.”

With Swap Spreads starting to blow out again, Dimon maybe right sooner than expected.

“I tell this to my regulators,” Dimon said Friday. 

“I’m telling you it’s going to happen, and you’re going to panic. I’m not going to panic, we’ll be fine. We’ll probably make more money and then some of my friends will tell me that we like crises because it’s good for JPMorgan Chase – not really.” 

But Dimon was not done yet. He took a shot at Democrats and their insane green and border policies…

“Immigration… what the hell were we doing?

The bottom 20% of our population’s wages haven’t gone up in 20 years.

The Biden admin was wasting so much money on “green” stuff that we know won’t work…meanwhile our schools don’t work.”

“Do you think people in rural cities, do you think people in inner cities thought they were getting anything? Do you think that those people think the American government is fair and competent and that this was in their best interest?” he asked rhetorically.

“Their schools don’t work, they’re not getting the skills they need… so we’ve gotta acknowledge these.”

Referring to what he calls “blue tape,” Dimon went on to blast the left for their regulatory obsession and desire to make life difficult.

“Democrats, they love it, they want more of it, and they want to make it so confusing. You can’t even meet the rules, so you get punished and fined afterward.” 

Dimon referred to the U.S. government as a “Leviathan” that is too weak to carry out policies, while simultaneously imposing “things on the American public that they’re getting sick of.” 

Jamie Dimon dropping BOMBS:

“Immigration… what the hell were we doing? The bottom 20% of our population’s wages haven’t gone up in 20 years. The Biden admin was wasting so much money on “green” stuff that we know won’t work… meanwhile our schools don’t work.” pic.twitter.com/Z58MEiGXhM

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) May 30, 2025

Dimon’s solution is that the U.S. needs to celebrate its long-held values.

“Celebrate our virtues: freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of enterprise, equal opportunity, family, God, country,” he said.

“You know, and you can acknowledge the flaws that we have, which are extraordinary — what we did the Black population for years. Don’t denigrate the great things of this country, because those are two different things.”

“We don’t talk that much to each other — deal with our policies — this is the enemy within,” he continued.

“We’ve got to fix our permitting our regulations our immigration our taxation, which I, I think they’re on their way. We have to fix our inner city schools, our health care system.” 

Interesting that the JPM CEO was not this outspoken DURING Biden’s term?

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Fourteen people were arrested on May 28 for allegedly being involved in a scheme to fraudulently obtain over $25 million in COVID-19 relief funds and federally guaranteed small business loans, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ).

The individuals are among the 18 people charged in connection with the case. Four who have not yet been arrested are currently believed to be in Armenia, the DOJ said in a statement.

All of them are facing charges of conspiracy to defraud the government, false claims, wire fraud, bank fraud, money laundering, laundering of monetary instruments, monetary transactions involving property derived from specified unlawful activity, and structuring financial transactions to evade reporting requirements.

Law enforcement officers seized about $20,000 in cash, two money-counting machines, paper cash bands, cellphones, laptops, two loaded semi-automatic handguns, and boxes of ammunition during the arrests.

Tyler Hatcher, special agent in charge of IRS Criminal Investigation, said the defendants were accused of fraudulently obtaining funds through the Small Business Administration’s (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program, Economic Injury Disaster Loan program, and other federal funding programs.

“These programs were established to assist individuals and businesses in need of financial assistance and instead were pilfered by the named defendants,” Hatcher said in the statement.

Among those arrested was Vahe Margaryan, 42, who allegedly instructed “owners of sham companies” to open bank accounts and fabricate documents to support loan applications used to purchase other fake businesses.

Prosecutors alleged that Margaryan orchestrated the scheme from 2018 to January 2025 and paid for tax returns that falsely claimed millions in revenue and tens of thousands in taxes owed.

Another defendant named by the DOJ is 77-year-old Felix Parker, who was arrested for allegedly making false statements and providing fraudulent documents, including fake tax returns, in January 2023.

Parker is believed to have received more than $2 million through a government-backed small business program, the DOJ stated.

Also arrested was 47-year-old Axsel Markaryan, who was accused of submitting fake documents to fraudulently secure more than $5 million in SBA loans in June 2023.

Prosecutors stated that Markaryan allegedly transferred at least $100,000 to a co-conspirator in Armenia just months after obtaining the loans.

Authorities also arrested Sarkis Gareginovich Sarkisyan, 37, who allegedly submitted a false application and false documents to obtain a loan through the Paycheck Protection Program, which provides low-interest, forgivable loans to help small businesses retain their staff and cover expenses during the pandemic. Sarkisyan allegedly received more than $700,000 from the program by creating a fake business.

“This transnational criminal network sought to defraud the government of millions of dollars and almost succeeded,” Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Los Angeles acting special agent in charge John Pasciucco stated.

It remains unclear whether the defendants have been assigned legal representation as of publication.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Outgoing DOGE overseer Elon Musk has hit back at claims made by U2 singer Bono that 300,000 people have “already died” because of cuts made to USAID.

Appearing on Joe Rogan’s podcast, the Irish singer declared “It’s not proven, but surveillance suggests 300,000 people have already died from this cut-off, this hard cut of USAID.”

The key phrase there being ‘it’s not proven’.

BONO: “300,000 people have already died from this hard cut of USAID”

ROGAN: “It was a money laundering operation … Billions of dollars are missing … @elonmusk said if any of this was done by a public company, the company would be delisted and the executives would be in prison” pic.twitter.com/zLOLD7DK9f

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) May 31, 2025

Bono added “So, there’s food rotting in boats and warehouses…This will f**k you off.”

“No American will be happy. There is 50,000 tons of food that are stored in Djibouti, South Africa, Dubai, and wait for it, Houston, Texas that is rotting,” he further claimed.

“The people who know the codes at the warehouses are fired, they’re gone,” the singer also suggested.

He then asked Rogan “What do you think? That’s not America, is it?”

Rogan responded with actual facts, noting “There have been a lot of organizations that have done a tremendous amount of good all throughout the world. Also, for sure, it was a money-laundering operation.”

“For sure, there was no oversight, for sure, billions of dollars were missing,” he continued, adding “In fact, trillions that are unaccounted for were sent off to (who knows) where, because there are no receipts.”

“The way Elon Musk described it, he said if any of this was done by a public company, the company would be delisted and the executives would be in prison. But in the United States, this is standard,” Rogan emphasised.

ZeroHedge notes that “Bono’s claim may be based on projections by Brooke Nichols, a mathematician and infectious disease professor at Boston University, who modeled an estimated 300,000 deaths, with over 200,000 of them being children. However, much like weather models, these projections are highly speculative and come with significant uncertainty.”

It’s just some academic spouting pure speculation based on nothing.

And Bono swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

— brianbdotcom ✝️✡️🌷 (@brianbdotcom) May 31, 2025

Bono keeps most of the money from his charity foundation, particularly the ONE Campaign. In 2008, ONE received £9.6 million but allocated only £118,000 (1.2%) to direct aid, with £5.1 million spent on salaries and administrative costs. No doubt Bono pockets the majority as…

— Vidar (@ammocanski) May 31, 2025

The citizen of Ireland, Paul David Hewson (Bono) is worth $700 million.
For him to whine about the US taxpayers not throwing away tens of billion of dollars a year to corrupt NGOs through USAID is pathetic. pic.twitter.com/NFUBPzYzrn

— Eta Miraklo (@Eta_Miraklo) May 31, 2025

Bono was palling around with Clinton and Tony Blair at WEF. I’m not surprised he has an agenda. pic.twitter.com/pe2vB4EkxU

— Tara (@Tarapin28) May 31, 2025

She must not have seen the back room video of George and Paul Hewson (Bono) at a WEF conference! https://t.co/4jnK9zcb5S pic.twitter.com/c2SOL6kVMO

— Jim B. (@BBCFRCH) January 4, 2025

Bono is a WEF Criminal. pic.twitter.com/nkL2FebvMN

— Liz Churchill (@liz_churchill10) May 31, 2025

Elon Musk responded to the comments, calling Bono a liar, an idiot and a retard.

He’s such a liar/idiot 🤦‍♂️

Zero people have died!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 31, 2025

Got a big one here @IfindRetards

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 31, 2025

Bono https://t.co/cbuCPoer9P

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 31, 2025

He’s definitely a complete idiot.

*  *  *

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The hawkish Washington DC-based think tank, The Institute for Study or War (ISW), had just prior to Ukraine’s Sunday shock drone operation which reportedly took out some 40 military aircraft deep inside Russian territory issued a report saying President Vladimir Putin is prepared for war with NATO if things escalate to that point.

A May 30 decree issued by Putin concerning the Russian defense industry base (DIB) would enable the government to legally take over military contractor firms if they do not abide by wartime martial law orders.

“Putin is likely setting legal conditions to allow the Russian government to commandeer elements of Russia’s economy and DIB should the Kremlin introduce full martial law in order to transition the country to a full wartime footing,” ISW wrote on UnderstandingWar.Org.

“ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing Russian society and economy for a protracted war in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not interested in engaging in good faith negotiations to reach a diplomatic settlement to its war in Ukraine.”

Certainly Sunday just brought the world a big step closer to witnessing potential all-out war in Eastern Europe, given the Zelensky-ordered drone swarm attacks are already being called ‘Russia’s Pearl Harbor’.

“The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare Russian society and the Russian defense industry base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and potential future war with NATO,” ISW concluded. “Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 allowing the Russian government to revoke the rights of shareholders of defense industrial enterprises in the event that the enterprise fails to fulfill state defense orders during martial law.”

“The decree enables the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to appoint a management company to act as the sole executive body of the enterprise in order to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian government,” the study says.

And it applies to “civilian aviation and shipbuilding companies, military development and production companies, and government subcontractors.”

And just as useless for them. https://t.co/dIIsGnmBAm

— Moon of Alabama (@MoonofA) June 1, 2025

Sunday’s major attack on Russian airbases may only serve to accelerate a possible Kremlin move toward martial law and formal declaration of all-out war in Ukraine.

Despite Kiev and Ukraine supporters praising the effectiveness of Sunday’s operation, the reality is that instead of translating into strategic battlefield gains, this only pokes the bear in a major way. Unverified reports say that ballistic missiles at silos across Russia are being readied.

We are likely to see Kiev soon get pummeled once again along with places like Odessa which have been for the most part sparred utter destruction thus far in the war.

Ukraine just mounted an attack that marks a turning point in the history of warfare

Hundreds of drones were pre-deployed and then struck 40+ aircraft 1000+ km inside of Russia

>$1B in damage by <$1m of drones

Critical infra is no longer safepic.twitter.com/qaPS3oKD1Y

— Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) June 1, 2025

Russia will likely ramp up attacks on ‘command centers’ throughout Ukraine, including those believed staffed by foreign advisers and officials. A big question for the Kremlin will be whether Western intelligence helped in Sunday’s attacks, which saw several Russian long-range bombers destroyed. Another question that remains is: will Monday’s peace talks in Istanbul still proceed at this point? There’s little doubt that Putin is readying a massive, painful retaliatory attack on Ukraine.

For months, all we’ve heard from mainstream economic pundits is that Trump’s tariff scheme would lead to absolute chaos; ports would be shut down, inflation would cripple the US economy, and markets would crater. The response was an April rollercoaster in stocks that ended the month higher, while the most recent inflation metrics had core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) coming in at its lowest level in years, while ‘supercore’ inflation (service-based inflation) dropped the most since COVID. So, just the opposite of what we were told would happen.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent disintegrated the conventional wisdom, while raking CBS News’ Margaret Brennan over the coals in response to the media’s fake news hysteria. 

The key excerpts from the interview:

• BESSENT: “Thus far there have been no price increases – everything has been alarmist. The inflation numbers are actually dropping. We saw the first drop of inflation in four years. The inflation numbers last week, they were very pro-consumer.”

• BRENNAN: “But you listen to earnings calls just like we do. You know what Walmart is saying, what Best Buy is saying, and what Target is saying.” 

• BESSENT: “But Margaret, I also know what Home Depot and Amazon are saying. I know what the South China Morning Post wrote within the past 24 hours – that 65% of the tariffs will likely be eaten by the Chinese producers.” 

• BRENNAN: “The reality is there will either be less inventory, or things will be at higher prices, or both.” 

• BESSENT: “Margaret, when we were here in March, you said there was going to be big inflation. There hasn’t been any inflation. Actually, the inflation numbers were the best in four years. So why don’t we stop trying to say ‘this could happen,’ wait and see what does happen. 

NEW: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent strikes down CBS News’ Margaret Brennan by reminding her about her own previous comments about inflation.

Another rough weekend for Margaret.

Brennan: “The reality is there will either be less inventory or things at higher prices or both.”… pic.twitter.com/eONA9xNqxT

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 1, 2025

Bessent also pushed back on a warning by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said that a crack in the bond market “is going to happen.”

“I’ve known Jamie a long time, and for his entire career he’s made predictions like this,” said Bessent. “Fortunately none of them have come true. That’s why he’s a great banker. He tries to look around the corner.”

Brennan: Dimon predicted a debt market crisis,

Bessent: For his entire career, he’s made predictions like this, fortunately none of them have come true. That’s why he’s a banker, a great banker pic.twitter.com/Kk5q50jnZu

— Acyn (@Acyn) June 1, 2025

Bessent also insisted that the US “is never going to default,” as the deadline for raising the debt ceiling yet again approaches.

“That is never going to happen,” he told Brennan, adding “We are on the warning track and we will never hit the wall.”

Bessent’s comments come as the US Senate returns this week to take up President Donald Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ which includes an increase in the debt limit before the so-called “X-date” when the Treasury runs out of cash and special accounting measures that would allow it to operate it within the debt ceiling and still meet federal obligations on time.

“We don’t give out the ‘X date’ because we use that to move the bill forward,” Bessent said (yet, he told lawmakers last month that the US was likely to exhaust its ability to borrow by August if the debt ceiling isn’t raised or suspended by then.

“The United States of America is never going to default. That is never going to happen,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says ahead of a summer deadline to increase or suspend the debt limit, telling @margbrennan, “we are on the warning track, and we will never hit the wall.”… pic.twitter.com/ZKXPnd5FEQ

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) June 1, 2025

Last week the Trump administration lashed out at Beijing for what they said was a violation of a US-Chinese tariff truce reached in May. Today, Bessent said he’s confident that this “will be ironed out” in a call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping “very soon.” 

According to White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the call is expected to take place this week – telling ABC’s This Week that Trump “is going to have a wonderful conversation about the trade negotiations this week with President Xi.”

“My expectation is that both sides have expressed a willingness to talk.”

Top White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said it is possible that Pres. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will speak this week about the ongoing trade battle.https://t.co/URF3j1NkNa pic.twitter.com/wwwKkLdOjX

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) June 1, 2025

On Friday, US Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer accused Beijing of failing to comply with several elements of the trade agreement brokered in Geneva, insisting that China continues to “slow down and choke off things like critical minerals and rare-earth magnets.”

Bessent addressed this on Sunday, saying “Maybe it’s a glitch in the Chinese system, maybe it’s intentional,” adding “We’ll see after the president speaks with the party chairman.”

We are not seeking to decouple from China, but we must take steps to de-risk.

Withholding essential products from global industrial supply chains is not the behavior of a reliable trading partner. pic.twitter.com/wq4HkaECRT

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) June 1, 2025

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Wall of Confusion

I think that we have seen the word “uncertainty” far too many times in the past few months. While uncertainty had its time and place, maybe confusion is a better description?

This is a natural evolution of last weekend’s Uncertainty – Main Street vs Wall Street.

We will use “confusion” or “confusing” as much as possible today. That might be a weird approach to writing a report that is designed to help guide investors and corporations through these markets, but it is where we are.

Wall of Worry

Wall Street is well known for climbing the “Wall of Worry.” Some have tried to argue that Wall Street climbed a Wall of Uncertainty in the past couple of months, but that does not seem accurate.

• Stocks plummeted as “Liberation Day” created certainty on tariffs – and that certainty was scary.
• Stocks rebounded as the President “pivoted” away from tariffs to the budget. While tariffs have remained a staple of the Wall Street diet, the headlines have had less and less impact, as the consensus view is that the headlines are “grandstanding” and the final results will be “manageable.”

Where we have been, for a week or longer, is figuring out how well Wall Street can climb a Wall of Confusion? On the prior Friday, when the President sent out his Truth Social posts threatening Tim Cook’s company with tariffs on a certain product, and 50% for the EU (after all the “progress” on China), many people figuratively “threw up their hands.” From a quiet Friday, to assessing the likelihood of these posts becoming policy. For me, I believe, I literally “threw my hands in the air” as the announcement was confusing in terms of timing, scope, and even reality. If we had to identify a moment in time, where the narrative should maybe switch from uncertainty to confusing, it was that series of posts (the EU one, not surprisingly, was “fixed” by the open on Tuesday, and the other one seems to have died off for now).

While uncertainty and confusion are related, they are not the same thing (at least we don’t think so).

Wall of Confusion – (That’s What the World is Today)

Okay, the song is actually “Ball of Confusion” but “Wall of Confusion” seemed more relevant to me (and I’m slightly embarrassed to admit, I thought the song was “Wall of Confusion” – but in my defense, I was never a big Love and Rockets fan, and it was more difficult to find song lyrics back in the day). Moving on, from that faux pas, there are some reassuring things about the song.

Run, run, run but you sure can’t hide
An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth
Vote for me and I’ll set you free

Ball of confusion (oh, yeah)
That’s what the world is today, hey, hey

The sale of pills are at an all time high
Young folks walking ’round with their heads in the sky
The cities ablaze in the summer time
And oh, the beat goes on

Evolution, revolution, gun control, sound of soul
Shooting rockets to the moon, kids growing up too soon
Politicians say more taxes will solve everything
And the band played on

So, ’round and around and around we go
Where the world’s headed, nobody knows

If you read the lyrics, you might be wondering if something is seriously wrong with me! How are these lyrics even remotely reassuring?

The fact that Love and Rockets felt it was timely to remake this song in 1985, and we are still around (and in general, thriving) tells me that we made it through the last 40 years, and maybe things weren’t so different?

The Temptations released the original version back in 1970!

So, the same set of words, broadly applicable today, were applicable over 55 years ago!

• The bad news is that we’ve gone 55 years and haven’t seemed to have fixed all that much.
• The good news is that we’ve flourished even with these issues and as much as today might seem different, in reality, it might not be that different. I really find that encouraging.

I assume the “ball” referred to in the song is the Earth, and yes, there is a depressing (and scary) element to the lyrics. For today, I’m going to take to heart that the world has been (and probably always will be) confusing, but we can make it through that.

On that positive note, maybe we should just end today’s report here?

While that would be nice, I do feel compelled to get across a few of the most confusing things.

Sentiment By Party Is Confusing?

We will devote as little text as possible to the University of Michigan Survey (and even that is more time than this survey deserves). We touched on the massive gap between Democrats and Republicans in Together We Stand. Overall, things would be better as the nation gravitates to a relatively uniform plan (not something we have today, but it is something that Jamie Dimon seemed to hit on in a recent interview).

1-year inflation expectations dropped from 7.3% to 6.6% in the most recent survey – though, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents all submitted for higher 1-year inflation. How is that even possible?

I was prepared for “mood” swings, like we saw in sentiment, where Democrats were less negative (economic data and stocks have been doing well, and the administration has backed off some policies), while Republican sentiment dropped a bit – presumably because of the PIVOT?

For me, sentiment surveys are on the cusp of shifting from confusing to irrelevant.

In any case, I certainly don’t know how we are supposed to use them in this day and age of social media, etc.

Tariff Inflation Confusion

Maybe I’m the only one confused by the potential impact of tariffs on inflation?

I’ve seen a number of surveys where the group running the survey is trying to figure out if tariffs are “inflationary” or “deflationary.” A valid goal, but what if the answer is both? Or kind of? Or first one, then the other?

We will now subject you to one of our very amateur charts, but one that can clarify the view that we have had (and continue to have) on tariffs.

Overall premise (which we’ve outlined in the past):

• Tariffs, initially, result in some upward pressure on prices
  • Price increases take time, as the tariffs get paid and prior inventory is worked off
  • Price increases take time because many prices have already been contracted
  • Price increases take time due to uncertainty/confusion over whether the tariffs will remain in place
  • Smaller levels of tariffs will be split between the exporter, importer, and consumer

The numbers on the “left” scale, ranging from -4 to 10, should be viewed more as a “scale” of deflationary, low, medium, and very high inflation, rather than as estimates of the percentage impact on tariffs.

While what we consider “manageable” tariffs have some inflationary pressures, it will act more or less as “business as usual.”

For higher tariff levels, we believe there will be some serious questions about the supply chain.

As tariffs increase, the pricing dynamic shifts, at least initially, from “attribution,” to real fear about supply chain issues. 

That will create much higher inflation, much quicker as consumers and businesses scramble to adjust to potentially disruptive supply chains.

Higher levels of tariffs are highly likely to slow the economy down. Once we get over the initial “supply chain” issues, it seems logical to assume the economy will experience a slowdown. Inflation will reduce the number of goods consumed. 

Profit margins will erode. Serious re-thinking of the global economy will occur, which will lead to deflation, as spending will drop.

Over time, in all scenarios, we should drift back to a no or limited effect.

It is probably accurate to say that tariffs are a “one-time” adjustment to prices, but that “one-time” adjustment will actually occur over a period of time.

That is why it will be difficult for the Fed to cut, as tariffs slowly leak their way into the system.

Very high levels of tariffs will likely be deflationary, as they will hurt the economy, possibly severely (which is what the market was pricing in, before the 90-day pause was instituted). Incidentally, this is what ZeroHedge said back in June 2024 in “The Experts Are All Wrong About Inflation Under A Trump Presidency“

The impact of tariffs is likely to be confusing: If our view is correct, and any inflationary pressures take time to play out, it will be difficult to separate any inflation from tariffs versus all of the other forces shaping the economy and prices.

Confusing? Possibly, though we would argue this is a logical framework to think about tariffs and inflation.

Economic Data Is and Will Be Confusing

Since the election, companies and individuals have had to think about the following:

• Potential deregulation and aggressive efforts along the lines of National Production for National Security. That was highly anticipated, then seemed to take a back seat, but is moving to the forefront again (the Nippon/U.S. Steel deal is an example.)
• M&A. Was a big hope for Wall Street. That too faded, but has been bouncing back.
• Tariffs. Buying ahead of tariffs. Slowdown as Liberation Day tariffs hit. More buying as the pause went into effect.
• Government Job Cuts and Spending Cuts. DOGE brought out the “chainsaw” – literally, on stage, but then not much seemed to happen. The Big, Beautiful Bill seems to bring back spending.

Companies and individuals have had to navigate some or all of the above as these factors affect their businesses.

While it is always difficult to estimate the “steady state” of the economy and separate the “signal from the noise,” I cannot think of a more difficult time than now.

On the government side, what was probably a drag, has become less of a drag on the economy (assuming the bill gets passed).

On the tariff side, it probably increased demand for products (and presumably labor), with a potential slowdown as any backlog is worked off.

Then you have survey response rates. We have bashed on sentiment surveys enough, but the BLS continues to see declines in survey response rates. The Establishment data, for NFP (which we get this week) gets a response rate of about 43%, down from over 60% a decade ago. So not even half of the firms bother to respond, for one of the most important pieces of data that we get.

We argued in last month’s Instant Reaction that the adjustment from the birth/death model seemed inconsistent with many other things we had been tracking (and it ultimately was the main driver of the report).

We may well get more confusing data on the jobs front this month. There is a camp that believes the jobs data has been overstated, and we have at least one foot in that camp, for the reasons we’ve been detailing.

The uncertainty, or even “confusion,” is likely slowing hiring, but it is also likely slowing dismissals, as companies don’t want to be understaffed if the PIVOT is Real and Positive.

I’m Confused Why World Leaders Are Not Golfing with Trump

We have mentioned how Abe of Japan learned to golf so he could play with Trump. The President said incredibly nice things about Abe during his speech about the U.S./Nippon Steel deal.

It seems pretty simple. Learn to golf (if you don’t already know how). Invite him to the best course your country has to offer. Get permission to do a military flyover while he is at the course. Expect a “reciprocal” at Mar-a-Lago. Don’t take the game too seriously and make sure you lose, possibly by a lot.

If I didn’t have a big defense budget, a need for airplanes, or massive amounts of chips, this would seem like a good plan to me. Heck, even if you need any or all of the above, it seems like a good plan!

I’m confused why more world leaders aren’t golfing with Trump? It seems funny, but I am serious.

Bottom Line

With all the confusion, we continue to believe that you should “stay the course” based on your current convictions, until evidence mounts that the course you are on is incorrect.

Policy pivots need to be addressed immediately. Fortunately, even with policy pivots, we seem to have time to absorb them, unlike in March and early April.

On the data front, expect some data to be confusing, or even misleading, but try to sort out the overall trend before correcting course.

Rates. Moderately bullish. We published Add Duration on May 22nd. The 10-year had closed at 4.6% the night before and is now back to 4.4%. It should have some more room to run to lower yields, especially as yields globally seem to have found support. I think we should be pricing in 3 cuts this year, starting in July.

Credit. Should continue to chug along.

Equities. Broad markets seem ok here, but extended. The “everyone is bearish” narrative has largely flip-flopped. Individual sectors may be the key here, as we digest the confusion and what it means for the economy and specific sectors. If anything, the equity market seems to be living a little bit too much on Hopium rather than concrete announcements.

• The pivot, budget, and Trump put seem fully priced in.
• Difficulties getting deals closed (including risk of sanctions on Russia, if no ceasefire is reached), seem not to be getting priced in.
• It has been awhile since we’ve used Hopium, but it seems to be the one word that is emerging from the confusion.

We can navigate through confusion, but I think we will be most successful navigating through it if we accept that confusion is different than uncertainty (as convoluted as that might sound).

Also, let’s remember the song that inspired this whole thing was released 55 years ago, and as much as the issues remain relevant, the nation, and individuals in the nation as a whole, have a lot more than we had back then!

Connecticut Democrats have advanced a controversial bill amending the state’s Trust Act to let “any aggrieved person” sue municipalities—including police and school employees—that work with federal immigration authorities, according to Law Enforcement Today.

The Law Enforcement Today article says that the measure, passed 96-51 along party lines, was prompted by claims from immigrant advocates that some towns ignore existing state law governing local cooperation with ICE. Although it wouldn’t grant immediate recourse to detained migrants, it allows future lawsuits and forces municipalities to pay legal fees if they lose.

House Minority Leader Vincent Candelora, who supported the 2013 Trust Act, criticized the expansion: “It’s not enough that municipalities and our public safety cannot communicate with ICE for them to do their job. They’re now going to allow these same individuals to sue our towns and cities,” he said.

Democratic Rep. Steven Stafstrom said the change aims to reassure immigrants they can seek help from local police without fear of deportation: “We’re trying to strike the right balance,” he said.

Republicans slammed the move. Rep. Doug Dubitsky called the Trust Act “a travesty,” while Rep. Craig Fishbein questioned its purpose: “Do we trust the government to use the statutes that are in place to protect us?”

Mathew Silverman, head of the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association, argued that sanctuary laws “weaken the relationship between local and federal law enforcement,” making it harder to catch “dangerous individuals” and “intercept deadly fentanyl.”

Rep. Farley Santos, who came to the U.S. from Brazil as a child, defended the bill, saying: “They [illegal aliens] are the next doctors, they are the next entrepreneurs, they are the next public servants.”

Critics say the expansion ties the hands of law enforcement and undermines public safety by limiting cooperation with federal agencies.