The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s April report, published on Friday, offers a crisis-level snapshot of the cattle industry and raises further concerns that a near-term recovery remains unlikely. This comes as average supermarket prices for ground beef hit new record highs, just as Americans fire up their grills for Memorial Day weekend.

The report showed that the number of cattle fattening on grain at large commercial feedlots declined to the lowest seasonal level since 2020, while cold storage supplies of beef fell to 418 million pounds in April—the lowest for this time of year since 2014, according to Bloomberg.

Readers have been well informed about the USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory report, released earlier this year. The report showed that the nation’s cattle herd in 2024 fell to a 73-year low, totaling around 86.6 million head.

In early May, Brady Stewart, head of Tyson Foods’ beef and pork supply chains, told a Barclays analyst during an earnings call that there are some encouraging signs that a cattle herd “rebuild” cycle could be approaching. He added, “From a liquidation standpoint, we’re really seeing the bottom at this point as well.”

By mid-month, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King told investors at the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference in New York that, due to the ongoing cattle crisis, there would be a major push to ramp up chicken production as a more affordable alternative to sky-high beef prices for consumers.

The cattle shortage, plus new developments of U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins shutting down live cattle, horse, and bison imports from southern border land ports, have sent Chicago cattle futures soaring to new heights. 

At the supermarket, USDA data shows the average price for a pound of ground beef hit a record high of $5.8/lb in April. 

The White House’s Rapid Response 47 X account recently reposted a video from Fox News that interviewed a rancher who warned, “It’s going to take time to rebuild” the nation’s herd. 

5th Generation Cattle Rancher Steve Lucie: I think at this point, we should be all-in on what’s happening… We have the lowest beef herd that we’ve had since 1950 and that’s because so many people have gotten out of the industry. If we could’ve exported more of our beef, I don’t… pic.twitter.com/Hmkq30KmYa

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 7, 2025

Plus, the Trump administration will put American farmers at the center of the clean food movement, as revealed in the MAHA Report released last week. 

Most Americans don’t realize that the beef industry has been hijacked by “chemical pushers,” according to Beef Initiative founder Texas Slim.

The Bloomberg chart below illustrates just that. 

The bottom line: America’s beef industry is in deep trouble. While the Trump administration begins to take steps to kick-start a cattle herd rebuilding cycle, a meaningful recovery could take years. In the meantime, consumers should expect higher prices and tighter supplies. At the same time, the MAHA movement will begin pushing consumers towards clean, locally sourced food.

Now is the time to support local ranchers and farmers by buying directly from them—putting money in their hands, not in the coffers of globalist multinational food companies that have poisoned the food supply chain, hence the public health crisis detailed in the MAHA Report. 

Save small ranchers, control your own food supply, and eat clean.

. . . 

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Prescription drugs cost more in the United States than anywhere else in the world. President Donald Trump and some bipartisan senators want to change that.

Trump has so far issued several actions related to prescription drug prices. The latest, announced May 12, is a Most Favored Nation Prescription Drug policy, requiring pharmaceutical companies to offer their lowest price to U.S. customers.

An earlier order aimed to ensure that the middlemen in the drug supply chain can’t hold on to rebates provided by pharmaceutical companies and instead must pass savings on to Medicare beneficiaries.

In all, the president has taken at least a dozen actions to reduce prescription drug costs, while no less than nine Senate bills aim for the same results.

Some of these ideas have been introduced before.

Trump’s Most Favored Nation pricing plan was introduced near the end of his first term.

The plan was stalled by court challenges, and President Joe Biden dropped it shortly after taking office.

A plan to make vendors pass manufacturer discounts on to Medicare beneficiaries was proposed in 2020. Biden rescinded it before it took effect.

There have been modest successes, including a pilot program begun by Trump in 2020 to cap insulin costs for Medicare Part B beneficiaries at $35 per month. At the time, a single vial of insulin cost about $100 in the United States.

That program was a success, and the idea was later broadened to include all Medicare beneficiaries through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. By 2024, most major drug companies had voluntarily limited out-of-pocket expenses for insulin for all U.S. customers to $35.

Yet Americans still pay nearly three times as much for prescription medication as any peer nation, often even more.

Trulicity, a medication for Type 2 diabetics, was listed for $67 in France, according to a 2021 Government Accountability Report. In the United States, it cost $798.

Meanwhile, Remlivid, an oral cancer medication, was listed for $4,723 in Australia. In the United States, it was listed at almost five times that price: $22,048.

Why? One answer is that other governments leverage the power of their national health plans to control pricing, while the United States lacks a comprehensive national prescription drug strategy.

The solution, according to at least one senator, is to stop putting patches on a broken system and take a comprehensive approach to regulating the entire pharmaceutical supply chain.

How Others Do It

Some nations can negotiate low prices for prescription drugs because they have national health care plans, which gives them near complete control over the drug market. Here’s how that works for some, according to the Government Accountability Office.

Australia

Australia has a national health care system that is partly administered by state, territorial, and local governments.

Prescription drug pricing is set at the national level, starting with an assessment of the drug’s value. That assessment is made by Australia’s independent Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee, which evaluates new drugs for cost-effectiveness and may recommend them for inclusion on the list of approved medications under the national health plan.

That decision is made by Australia’s national minister of health, who then negotiates with the manufacturer to determine a price. Among other considerations, the health minister evaluates the impact of adding the drug on the country’s budget.

Canada

Canada keeps prescription prices low in two ways. First, Canada’s federal government sets a maximum allowable price for each medication. The government bases this price, in part, on the therapeutic value of the drug. That value may be higher if the drug is the first of its kind, or lower if there are similar drugs already on the market.

Second, the country’s 13 provincial and territorial health plans negotiate pricing jointly with manufacturers, combining the power of their respective markets.

France

France has a national health care system that includes prescription drugs.

The French government negotiates prices with manufacturers based on an assessment of the therapeutic value of the drug. The country also places a cap on total prescription spending.

The Drawbacks

These arrangements significantly lower prescription costs for the government and for patients. But there are drawbacks.

When a U.S. insurance company can’t negotiate an acceptable price from a drug manufacturer, the insurer may choose not to cover the drug. However, another company will often cover it, so patients still have options.

However, when a drug is omitted from a national health plan, it may be more difficult to find it or afford it anywhere in that country.

For example, Signifor, a drug used to treat hormonal diseases, was not available in Ontario, Canada, according to a 2021 study by the Government Accountability Office. Some forms of diabetes drug Trulicity were not available in Australia. Cancer medicine Revlimid 5 milligram and 10 milligram capsules were not available in France.

Or, drugs left off the national coverage list may still be available, but at a higher price.

Drug shortages are another problem.

In countries with national health plans, pharmaceutical companies have less incentive to ensure supply. Companies will favor markets where there is more potential for profit.

“[Drug] shortages are a natural outcome of imposing prices divorced from free market processes,” Jeremy Nighohossian, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a libertarian think tank, told The Epoch Times.

Stephen Ubl, president and CEO of Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, said, “Importing foreign prices from socialist countries would be a bad deal for American patients and workers,” in a May 12 response to Trump’s plan.

Read the rest here…

In February, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) uncovered $4.7 trillion in payments made by the US Treasury that are “almost impossible” to trace – as Treasury Account Symbol (TAS) identification codes were optional in the system. This left billions in payments blank and unable to be traced.

“Of the 1.5 billion payments that we send out every year, they are required to have a TAS, a Treasury Account Symbol. We discovered that more than one third of those payments did not have a TAS number,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services earlier this month.

“In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible,” DOGE announced via its X account. Thanks to DOGE, those “optional” days are over. “…this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is actually going,” DOGE added. 

Major improvement in Treasury payment integrity going live!

This was a combined effort of @DOGE, @USTreasury and @FederalReserve. Nice work by all. https://t.co/dpLmXRpufT

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 17, 2025

So while the TAS field is now mandatory, Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) has called for an investigation into where the untraceable payments have been going.

“There’s so much waste. There’s so much fraud, There’s so much abuse in our government,” Schmitt told Fox News. “I’m glad there was a laser-like focus on it. We ought to make many of those reforms permanent, but there probably ought to be some investigations here about where this money actually went. I mean this is taxpayer money. People work hard.”

In March. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) introduced a bill – the LEDGER Act – requiring the Treasury Department to track all payments.

“When you hear about this story that they didn’t know where the money was going, it makes you mad because this is somebody’s money, this is taxpayers’ money when we have almost $37 trillion in debt, so this makes no sense at all,” said Scott.

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) noted that the United States “paid out more last year on our debt, $36 trillion in debt, with $950 billion in interest going to bondholders all over the world, including in China. That $950 billion didn’t go to build a bridge or an F-35. We paid more on the interest on debt than we did to fund our military.”

“That is an inflection point that when most countries hit, you look at history, that’s when great powers start to decline. So we have to get those savings.”

Following President Trump’s signing of multiple executive orders accelerating development of the nuclear industry, Goldman Sachs was out with a note maintaining a positive outlook on the nuclear energy sector, especially in the near to medium term, focusing on opportunities related to uranium fuel supply and the upstream part of the nuclear value chain.

In the note, Goldman, led by analyst Brian Lee, reiterates its Buy rating on Cameco Corporation while also seeing potential in companies focused on small modular reactor (SMR) technologies.

Goldman Sachs believes the new orders could be beneficial for Cameco, a major uranium producer, as increased demand for nuclear power generation would likely raise the need for physical uranium and related fuel conversion services. This impact would be more visible over the longer term.

In the shorter term, Goldman highlights the potential benefit to Westinghouse, in which Cameco holds a 49 percent stake. Westinghouse could see more immediate gains if its reactor technology, particularly the AP1000 design, is selected for upcoming nuclear projects.

For companies involved in small modular reactors, there is potential upside if the executive order leads to specific allocations of loan funding for SMR development. Such support could be directed toward both civilian energy infrastructure and defense-related power needs, Lee and his team said.

Recall, on Friday, President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders designed to fast-track the development and deployment of advanced nuclear reactors on Friday culminating a dramatic policy shift aimed at revitalizing the U.S. nuclear energy sector.

Flanked in the Oval Office by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Trump declared nuclear power “a hot industry” and praised it as “very safe and environmental.”

Burgum called it “a huge day for the nuclear industry,” and added, “Mark this day on your calendar. This is going to turn the clock back on over 50 years of over regulation of an industry.”

In terms of valuation, Goldman sets a twelve-month price target of $65 for Cameco’s U.S. listing and C$89 for its Toronto listing. These valuations are based on a sum-of-the-parts approach that incorporates different valuation multiples for uranium production, fuel services, and Westinghouse’s contributions.

Key risks to this outlook include fluctuations in commodity prices, disruptions in mining operations, timing issues related to contracts and deliveries, and potential delays in nuclear project construction.

For SMR, Goldman assigns a twelve-month price target of $24. This estimate is derived from a blend of discounted cash flow analysis and revenue-based valuation, using longer-term forecasts and applying a relatively high discount rate to reflect risk.

The primary concerns for SMR include execution challenges, ongoing funding needs, uncertainty around customer demand and regulatory approvals, and the final delivered costs of reactor modules.

Recall, the new orders aim to strip away what the administration describes as decades of regulatory overreach that have stifled innovation and stagnated the industry. “America’s greatness has always come from innovation,” Burgum said on Friday. “We led post-World War Two in all things nuclear. But then we’ve been stagnated. We’ve choked it with over regulation.”

The first of Trump’s executive orders directs the Department of Energy (DOE) to accelerate research and development, speed up reactor testing at national labs, and initiate a two-year pilot program for reactor construction.

A second order clears regulatory hurdles for the DOE and the Department of Defense (DOD) to build reactors on federal land — efforts that will bypass the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) entirely by using the agencies’ own regulatory authority.

“We’re going to do a lot of the small ones, and we’re going to do some of the big ones,” Trump said. “But yeah, very safe, safe and clean.”

The third order takes direct aim at the NRC itself. It mandates “a total and complete reform of NRC culture to reorient to ensure reactor safety and promoting the development and adoption of nuclear technology.” The order sets a new requirement that the commission rule on new license applications within 18 months, far faster than the current average of five years.

In support of this agenda, Hegseth underscored the national security implications, especially in powering AI infrastructure: “We’re including artificial intelligence in everything we do. If we don’t, we’re not fast enough, we’re not keeping up with adversaries. You need the energy to fuel it. Nuclear is a huge part of that, modular or otherwise. So we’re going to have the lights on and AI operating when others do not faster than everybody else because of nuclear capability.”

The fourth nuclear-focused order targets America’s uranium supply chain, aiming to “reinvigorate” the domestic nuclear industrial base. It calls for expanded uranium mining and enrichment, while also instructing Energy Secretary Scott Wright to evaluate policies for nuclear material recycling and reprocessing. A senior official explained, “That means America will start mining and enriching uranium and expanding domestic uranium conversion and enrichment capacity.” Nonproliferation and security considerations will guide those efforts.

Trump’s orders reflect a clear strategic intent: to restore the U.S. as a global leader in nuclear energy and science. Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, said the executive actions would “ensure continued American strength and global leadership in science and technology.”

He lamented the U.S. decline in nuclear progress, saying, “We decommissioned commercial reactors across the country, stepped back from nuclear R and D and abandoned hopes of nuclear energy, power and a bright future. America’s great innovators and entrepreneurs have run into brick walls when it comes to nuclear technologies.”

Kratsios declared that Trump is “telling the world that America will build again and the American nuclear renaissance can begin.”

With energy demands soaring due to AI and data center growth, industry giants like Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon are now investing in or exploring small modular reactors to power their operations. The administration sees this as a critical opportunity for the U.S. to lead again. “Nuclear energy is necessary to power the next generation technologies that secure our global industrial, digital, and economic dominance, achieve energy independence, and protect our national security,” a White House official said.

Nuclear stocks soared last week on the news of the order. And as we noted on X last week, OKLO is now up 10x since Jim Cramer said “I can’t even look at it” back in October 2024. 

Booyah!

On Oklo’s Q1 2025 earnings call earlier this quarter, CEO Jacob DeWitte confirmed the company is engaged in a “pre-application readiness assessment” with the NRC, aiming to smooth its formal license submission for a newly upsized 75-MW reactor design in Q4 2025. The company still targets late 2027 or early 2028 for first power production at its Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site.

DeWitte noted the recent departure of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as Oklo board chair removes a potential conflict of interest should OpenAI become a future power customer. Oklo already holds about 14 GW in nonbinding agreements with data centers and industrial operators.

A UtilityDive report said that Zero Hedge favorite Oklo is also among eight companies eligible for the military’s Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations program, enabling on-base reactor deployments. It’s developing nuclear fuel fabrication facilities capable of reusing spent fuel that would otherwise sit in long-term storage.

For those who missed it, in our original note “The Next AI Trade” from April 2024, more than one year ago, we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, most of which have dramatically outperformed the market since then. 

For those that missed that note, we pointed out on Friday all the ways to still profit.

Meanwhile the entire world has been jumping on the nuclear power bandwagon. 

• United States: Major tech. companies have come out in support of nuclear to help power AI data centers, and in places like Pennsylvania, local politicians are pushing for quick restarts and refreshes of nuclear plants like Three Mile Island. President Trump’s goal is to quadruple nuclear capacity over 25 years.

• China: China leads the world in nuclear construction, with 30 reactors being built, including the massive Lianjiang plant with six advanced CAP1000 reactors. The country sees nuclear as key to reducing emissions and meeting energy needs.

• India: India is pushing forward with 10 new heavy water reactors, each generating 700 MW, to be built in a faster “fleet mode.” This expansion will help meet growing power demand and reduce coal reliance.

• Japan: After years of hesitancy post-Fukushima, Japan has restarted several nuclear reactors and plans to extend their lifespans. The government is also supporting the development of next-generation reactors to reduce energy imports and cut carbon emissions.

• Germany: Facing high energy costs from phasing out nuclear, Germany is rethinking its position. Discussions are underway about using small modular reactors and cooperating with France on nuclear energy.

• France and the UK: Both countries are extending the life of existing plants and investing in new large-scale and small modular reactors to strengthen energy security and meet climate goals.

• Nordic countries:

  • Sweden: Plans to build new reactors and extend the life of existing ones, aiming for stable, fossil-free electricity.

  • Finland: Recently completed the Olkiluoto 3 reactor, the largest in Europe. It now supplies about 14% of Finland’s electricity.

  • Denmark: Considering lifting a 40-year ban on nuclear energy, spurred by small modular reactor interest and regional trends.

As of late 2024, 63 nuclear reactors were under construction worldwide. Three-quarters of these are in emerging economies, and half are in China. The International Atomic Energy Agency projects that global nuclear capacity could more than double by 2050 to support clean energy goals.

In other words, we could very well still be in the early innings of this renaissance…

For even more including a deep dive into the nuclear technology, the nuclear fuel cycle, the uranium supply-demand model, pricing and contracting, and all the companies and major players in the place, read the full “Nuclear Playbook For Energy Transition” report available only to professional subscribers.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Lefty activist CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins appeared visibly pissed off Thursday as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke of the media’s complicity in eroding freedoms during the COVID pandemic.

Kennedy noted that the likes of CNN acted as parroting mouthpieces for spreading false information, coercing people to accept lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

“You know, one of the big mistakes that you and many of your media colleagues made during COVID is to try to convince the American people that they should trust the experts,” Kennedy said.

RFK JR: “[People] should also be skeptical about any medical advice, they need to do their own research.” pic.twitter.com/6Q1g6DK4aS

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) May 23, 2025

“What we should do is trust the science,” he urged.

Collins responded, “The message WAS to trust the science, and what studies were finding.”

“No, it was trust the experts,” Kennedy Fired back.

Oof. Sit down Katie.

Kennedy emphasised that Americans are free to question any medical advice they choose to, especially untested vaccines, and that they should do their own research.

“I would say be skeptical of authority. My father told me that when I was a young kid. People in authority lie. And we’ve seen a lot of that in our country,” Kennedy contended.

“People in the media lie,” he contiuned, adding “people need to make their own judgments and be skeptical, and maintain their capacity for critical thinking.”

“That was shut down during COVID, and the media was complicit in that,” he asserted.

“Disagree on that last part,” Collins pathetically replied before abruptly ending the exchange.

RFK is correct. Every step of the way when it comes to COVID the ‘conspiracy theorists’ were right, from the lab leak to the harmful effects of rushed out big pharma mRNA shots.

Indeed, the FDA is now forcing Moderna and Pfizer to update warnings on the vaccines about the possible risk of myocarditis and pericarditis.

The FDA is requiring COVID vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna to update their warnings about the possible risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. https://t.co/KWQ2WpuBI6

— CBS News (@CBSNews) May 21, 2025

The whole interview is here:

As we highlighted yesterday, despite these realities being plain and clear, with the legacy media pushing its propaganda, the Biden administration secretly labeled Americans who opposed the vaccination and mask mandates as “Domestic Violent Extremists.”

Let that sink in.

They put people who questioned all of this on terror watch lists.

* * *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

The Kremlin as well as Russian state media are alleging a huge, potentially conflict-altering incident which will surely escalate the war in Ukraine – an attempted attack on Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.

A high-ranking Russian military commander on Sunday described that last week, as Putin traveled to the Kursk region for the first time since is liberation after 6+ months of Ukrainian occupation, Ukraine tried to attack Putin’s helicopter mid-flight, sending a wave of drones to swarm the flight path of the chopper.

The presidential helicopter was caught in the “epicenter” of a massive Ukrainian drone attack, commander of an air defense division in Kursk, Yury Dashkin, told Russian media. The headline is the top featured story of English-language RT on Sunday, something which suggests the allegations are largely aimed at grabbing the attention of the West.

The incident is said to have happened Tuesday as the helicopter transported Putin to tour Kursk – a southern oblast which has suffered much destruction since the initial Ukrainian cross-border incursion of last August.

Commander Yury Dashkin told Russia 1 in an interview which aired Sunday said that Putin’s helicopter had found itself “in the epicenter of an operation to repel a massive drone attack by the enemy” in Kursk Region.

He went on to describe that this “unprecedented” attack was successfully repelled by anti-air defenses in the region. Air defense units in the area had to “simultaneously conduct anti-aircraft combat and ensure the safety of the president’s helicopter in the air. The task was accomplished,” Dashkin stated. “The attack of the enemy drones was repelled, with all aerial targets being hit.”

While this could just be a mid-level officer’s attempt to toot his own horn, given the world is just hearing about what’s tantamount to an ‘assassination attempt’ on one of the world’s most powerful leaders being alleged – and coming belatedly a number of days after the incident in question – this seems part of Moscow’s ongoing messaging that the UAV incursions are an attempt to derail the US-brokered peace talks between Moscow and Kiev. 

The drones are being launched on Russia in record numbers, with literally multiple hundreds sent over the past week, in some cases halting inbound and outbound flights at major airports, including in the Moscow area. Ukrainian officials have boasted that the operations is trying to disrupt and destabilize daily life in Russia, in hopes that the government could lose control.

A major new allegation coming from Russia’s military:

Ukraine tried to ATTACK Putin’s helicopter mid-flight over Kursk

Russian Air Defense Division officer says Ukrainian drones attempted to swarm chopper flight path

Russian air defenses scrambled — worked perfectly and repelled the strike pic.twitter.com/BDmmrLMyvU

— RT (@RT_com) May 25, 2025

Significantly, Russia’s military pummeled the Ukrainian capital of Kiev again overnight, with emerging images showing raging fires and devastation in city neighborhoods and populated areas. Other regions were hit as well, in a second straight night of some of the largest strikes of the war. 

There were significant casualties. According to Ukrainian emergency authorities, cited in national media:

Russia attacked Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions with drones and missiles overnight on May 25, killing 12 people, including three children, and injuring more than 60, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on Telegram.

Russia launched 69 missiles overnight and 298 drones, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.

The Air Force reported that 45 cruise missiles were shot down by air defense and 266 drones were neutralized, while 22 locations recorded a direct strike.

The attacks come one night after one of the heaviest Russian assaults on Kyiv throughout the full-scale war. The attack also coincides with Kyiv Day, a city holiday typically celebrated on the last Sunday in May.

Zelensky after Russia’s massive overnight attack:

“Almost 300 Shahed drones and 70 missiles hit Ukrainian cities—Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, and more. Homes, dorms, businesses destroyed. Children killed.

Every strike is reason for tougher sanctions. Silence only… pic.twitter.com/4k08CM3zM9

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) May 25, 2025

US media outlet NPR also acknowledges that “The scale of the onslaught was stunning — Russia hit Ukraine with 367 drones and missiles, making this the largest single attack of the more than three-years-long war.”

The attack featured heavy use of Iranian-designed Shahed drones, Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, said. It was “the most massive strike in terms of the number of air attack weapons on the territory of Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022,” Ihnat emphasized.

Given the sizeable death toll and casualties, this is sure to get Washington and Europe’s attention, at a moment the Trump administration has been losing patience with both sides over lack of progress in attempted peace negotiations, the last round which was held in Istanbul just over a week ago. Washington is still threatening more anti-Moscow sanctions, a move which would likely terminate the peace negotiation process.

By all appearances, Putin is actually ready to expand the ground operation inside Ukraine, in part to establish a ‘buffer zone’ in order to better defend the constant drone attacks coming out of Ukraine on Russian territory.

Russian troops at the same time continue advancing slowly on the eastern front in Donbass, having reportedly captured two settlements in Donetsk region as well as one in Ukraine’s northern region of Sumy, according to a Saturday Russian Defense Ministry statement.

Reuters cites the statement as saying Russian forces had “captured the village of Stupochky in Donetsk region, east of Kostiantynivka, a town under recent Russian pressure.” It also named the villags of Otradne and Loknya, the latter which is inside the Russian border in Sumy region – as coming under Russian control. That makes three more settlements captured in eastern Ukraine. All of this strongly suggests that peace is no closer on the horizon.

Authored by Lane Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Even Trump Can’t Kill The Rally

Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following the correction. As we noted:

“This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as shown, the markets are reaching decently overbought levels after being extremely oversold. This suggests that at least for now, the “easy money” has been made. With the market above the 200, and above the 50 and 20-DMA, pullbacks should be between 5600 and 5800. Investors can use such a pullback to increase portfolio equity exposures and reduce hedges accordingly. Conversely, 5000 to 5200 becomes the next critical target if those lower supports are violated. Notably, such would require some unexpected event to unfold.”

Several times this past week, we discussed that the market was due for a corrective pullback after reaching more overbought conditions. On Friday, the market gave way early in the morning on fresh comments by President Trump instituting 25% tariffs on Apple (AAPL) on any product not manufactured in the U.S. and 50% tariffs on the EU, as trade talks are not going well. As is always the case, amid a bull run, sellers are still unwilling to sell over fear of “missing out” on rising asset prices. It takes some “event” to bring sellers into the market, which we saw early on Friday.

However, by late afternoon, markets bounced off the 200-DMA and clawed their way higher as comments from Scott Bessent took the sting out of Trump’s announcements. Most importantly, he made two significant statements to alleviate concerns over the recent yield rise. First, he expects the US budget deficit “to be something with a 3% in front of it by 2028,” with revenue from tariffs to be used to solve the deficit. This is crucial as the CBO projections of never-ending deficits do not consider the effects of policy changes that can lead to economic growth. Tax cuts, deregulation, the coming productivity boost from Artificial Intelligence, or the infrastructure demand for power can significantly impact future growth rates.

Secondly, he specifically mentioned the SLR. The Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) is a rule imposed after the 2008 financial crisis that increased bank capital requirements. This is particularly interesting to the bond market, where reversing that requirement will allow banks to purchase more Treasury Bonds. Bessent noted in his interview that the Treasury is close to “moving the SLR requirement and could see that move by the summer.” That shift in the SLR requirement is very bond-friendly and will work to bring rates lower. (For more, read our Daily Market Commentary from last week.)

Technically Speaking

Even with Bessent’s comments, that market remains overbought short-term, and a further consolidation process is likely into next week. At the end of this week, we removed our short-market hedge, added to bonds, and reduced equity exposure. If the market is going to consolidate, we can allow cash to act as the primary hedge. However, if the 200-DMA is violated, the 50-DMA will become the next critical support. From a bullish perspective, the 20 and 50-DMAs are now sloping positively, which should provide rising support levels. Overall, we suspect that the market will stabilize. Of course, there are always risks to be aware of, so increased cash levels are essential now.

We are not “bearish” on the market because buybacks remain a powerful market influence over the next month. The recent surge has been the largest since the October 2022 market lows. However, those will begin to fade in the middle of June, which could weigh on markets into the Q2 earnings reports.

For now, this seems to be an “unstoppable” bull market, and investor spirits have become substantially more bullish. However, all rallies eventually end. That doesn’t mean a “crash” is coming, and as noted last week, the market is holding the 200-DMA for now. This suggests the previous correction phase is likely complete with support gathering at slightly lower levels. However, there is never a guarantee, so we have taken some recent gains and raised cash levels. We will be patient for a much better entry point soon.

With that said, let’s discuss how to navigate a seemingly “unstoppable” bull market.

Retail Buyers Go “All In”

Last week, we started the market update by analogy between the COVID pandemic decline and this year’s correction. As we noted:

“It is worth remembering that there are many competing differences between the current macroeconomic backdrop and 2020.”

“However, as we discussed in that previous analysis, even a “unstoppable bull market” gives those who can be patient better risk/reward opportunities to increase equity exposures. For example, after the initial rally off the March 2020 lows, the market pulled back and consolidated briefly before rallying further. Then, another longer consolidation process that year provided another entry point for bullish investors.”

“The weekly Technical Gauge we produce each week in this newsletter below follows the same path as 2020. While not yet back to bullish technical extremes, it is moving quickly higher to more elevated levels. When those readings reached 80, the market went through a longer consolidation process in 2020.”

Most interesting is that retail investors have been fueling the market’s advance. As noted in our #DailyMarketCommentary:

“Monday was a record-setting day. Stocks opened down 1% on news that Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to AA. While some perceived the downgrade as problematic, retail investors, aka individuals, bought stocks at the highest rate ever. Per JP Morgan, retail investors purchased a net of $4.1 billion of US stocks in the first three hours of trading. As their graph below shows, Monday’s retail buying stampede dwarfs prior instances”

While the retail net inflow was quite impressive, it does leave the bulls and bears with a consideration. We should ask ourselves who the retail investors bought the stock from. The answer, by default, is institutional investors. This trend of retail buying from institutional investors has been ongoing. As we wrote in “Smart Money or Dumb Money: Who Will be Right?“

Smart money (institutions and hedge funds) is aggressively selling this market while individual investors, aka dumb money, are aggressively buying. The difference in opinions is stunning.

The data below confirms that view, with the recent stretch of Hedge Fund short selling remaining unprecedented and reflective of some skeptics. Over the past 3 COT reports, Hedge Fund shorts surged ~$25bn – the largest amount for at least the past 10 years. 

Viewed through another lens, Hedge Fund shorts as a percentage of total open interest reached 41% – the max dating back to February of 2021.

Typically, institutional investors tend to be right. However, in the short term, particularly over the last few years, retail investors have been heavy buyers of corrections. The only question is whether retail investors run out of money before institutions are forced to cover?

Valuations Take A Back Seat

That said, the rally so far seems unstoppable. Every time the market opens lower, as on Friday following Trump’s tariff increase, buyers step in. As such, the patience needed to wait for a correction has been hard to come by. As noted previously, we remain bullishly biased but expect a pullback.

“We must remember that market advances can only go so far before an eventual correction occurs. My best guess is that if the markets are to reach all-time highs this year, we will likely have a correction to reset some of the more extreme overbought conditions, as shown below. Any pullback to the 50-DMA is likely a good entry point to increase exposure on a better risk/reward basis.”

The bull market that started in October 2022 has surprised many, given the number of traditionally more bearish indicators, such as inverted yield curves, leading economic indicators, and rising interest rates. For many individuals, trading a rising stock market is difficult because they expect the inevitable resumption of the “bear market.” However, as the market continues to rise, investors are pressured to buy equities, creating more demand, thereby pushing asset prices even higher.

The bullish bias is evident in the long-term relationship between stocks and bonds. The ratio of stocks to bonds has far exceeded that of the “Financial Crisis,” and is now on par with the “Dot.com” bubble peak, with a similar sharp slope higher.

Does that mean the market is about to “crash?” No, but there is an apparent correlation between the detachment of stocks to bonds and historical valuation metrics. However, in the short term, all that matters is price. As discussed in “Technical Measures,“ valuations are a terrible market timing tool. Valuations only measure when prices are moving faster or slower than earnings. In the short term, valuations are just a measure of psychology. To wit:

“Valuation metrics are just that – a measure of current valuation. More importantly, when valuation metrics are excessive, it is a better measure of ‘investor psychology’ and the manifestation of the ‘greater fool theory.’ As shown, there is a high correlation between our composite consumer confidence index and trailing 1-year S&P 500 valuations.”

The chart indeed suggests that investors should sell everything immediately. However, given that this is monthly data, these turns can and do take much longer than expected. This “lag” leads investors in the short term to believe that “valuations” no longer matter. Such is a dangerous assumption that investors paid dearly for in the past. Valuations do matter, and they matter a lot, just not today.

Therefore, when investors are caught in an “unstoppable” bull market, we must revert to price analysis and trading rules to navigate the markets.

Navigating An Unstoppable Bull Market

There are millions of ways to approach technical analysis, and investors use millions of combinations of technical indicators to decipher market movements.

I am only going to discuss how we do it with you.

Notably, technical analysis does NOT predict the future. It is the study of historical price action, which is the purest representation of the psychology of market participants. From that study, we can make statistical observations about the behavior of market participants in the past. Those assumptions can help form a “guess,” assuming similar variables, about how they may act in the near term.

For our portfolio management needs, we keep our analysis very simple. We use one indicator to indicate if prices are overbought or oversold, two moving averages to determine the trend of prices, and Bollinger bands to warn of significant deviations from those moving averages. I show the technical setup in the sample chart below from SimpleVisor.com.

When markets rise, we look for “warning signs” that stocks could be due for a short—or intermediate-term corrective period. Conversely, during market declines, we look for indications that markets are oversold and ready to advance. Currently, we are dealing with the former.

Historically, when prices move toward the upper bands of 2- or 3-standard deviations above the 50-day moving average (dma), the Williams %R is overbought, and the MACD is crossing lower from a high level, stock prices generally correct to some degree. Such is the potential environment we will likely deal with in the next few weeks as earnings season concludes and the corporate buyback window closes. This is also why we have suggested holding off trading portfolios and increasing cash levels until some of these more overbought conditions are corrected.

But that is difficult to do in an “unstoppable” market advance.

Trading An Unstoppable Market

It’s not as hard as you think, once you conquer the emotional side of the equation.

Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” – James P. Arthur Huprich

Let me be very clear. We are discussing risk management. You must understand the market’s overall trend and when it is changing. The negative price trend of 2022 is now over, and since then, the market has continued to trend positively. While you can argue, fight, and provide all the reasons why “the game is rigged,” the fact is that the market continues to push higher. Those participating are building wealth, those who aren’t…well…aren’t. You have a choice.

We are in a “bull market.”. As such, we want to maintain our exposure to equity risk. However, this does not mean we should ignore what the market tells us and let the ebbs and flows wash over us. Eventually, another “ebb” will come, and we will want to reduce risk accordingly. That does not mean selling everything and going to cash.

“In a bull market, you can be either long or neutral. In a bear market, you can only be neutral or short.” – Dennis Gartman

The market will eventually pull back, and likely soon. During that correction, prices will likely remain confined to the 50-dma, as noted above. Could a correction be larger? Yes. The market is currently overbought and extended, so we suggest that investors manage risk and remain cautious about committing cash reserves to the market. However, we will want to use corrections that reverse those overbought and extended conditions as an opportunity to increase equity exposure.

“Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.” – Gerald Loeb

Millions of federal employees are monitoring the progress of President Trump’s longed-for “Big Beautiful Bill,” as it contains provisions targeting their generous, taxpayer-subsidized pensions. The final version narrowly passed by the House of Representatives on Thursday morning pared back some of the elements of the proposal that came from the House Oversight and Reform Committee in April, and cut near-retirees some slack, but it retained provisions that have government unions shrieking. 

First, here’s what’s been slashed from the Oversight Committee’s version that we reported on last month: 

• There’s no more increase in the pension premiums that longer-tenured feds would have had to contribute to the Federal Employee Retirement System (FERS). The original proposal would have made all employees pay 4.4% of their salary. The final House bill will allow those hired in 2013 to continue paying 3.1% and those hired earlier to keeping paying a paltry 0.8%; those hired in 2014 and after already pay 4.4%. (Below, we’ll detail a proposed change for new hires)
• Pensions will continue to be calculated using the average of the employee’s highest three years of earnings. The Oversight version would have changed that to using an average of the highest five years.  

However, a significant pension-reduction measure survived all the House horse-trading. Today, long-serving federal employees who retire with a full pension before Social Security age currently receive a supplemental payment on top of that calculated pension. The “FERS Annuity Supplement” is supposed to approximate their age-62 Social Security income attributable to their federal employment.  The head-scratchingly lavish goal: Saving early retirees from having to make do with less total money than they’ll eventually rake in at age 62 — even though they’re fortunate enough to receive a full federal pension in the interim. 

As recommended by the Oversight committee, the House reconciliation bill kills the FERS Annuity Supplement — however, the final version rolls back the effective date to Jan. 1, 2028, so as to avoid a last-minute change for feds who are on the brink of retirement. The language says any fed who is “entitled” to retire with a supplement on that date will hang on to their eligibility — apparently meaning there will be no incentive for them to rush to retire by the deadline. The bill keeps the supplement for employees subject to mandatory early retirement — mostly federal law enforcement and air traffic controllers. 

The House bill also kept a major change that would present all new federal hires with a critical choice about the nature of their government employment. If they want their pension premium rate to be 4.4% (the rate currently paid by employees who entered service in 2014 or after), future hires would have to agree to become “at-will” employees. If they want to have civil service job protection, their pension-contribution rate would soar to 9.4%.  

Republicans just snuck another harmful proposal into their tax package that would force federal employees to choose between paying more for their pensions or losing critical labor protections. You can count on me to vote against this blatant attack on working people. pic.twitter.com/vAT5JZ30UD

— Rep. Nikki Budzinski (@RepNikkiB) May 20, 2025

Government unions are screeching about that one. In a letter to House members, American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) President Everett B. Kelley called the 9.4% rate “unaffordable” and said: 

“This provision is an un-American, anti-union, morally bankrupt attempt to charge workers for exercising their basic rights…. If enacted, this change will lead to the eventual extinction of the merit-based, nonpartisan civil service, which is certainly its true purpose.” 

Kelley also condemned the proposed eradication of the FERS Annuity Supplement, saying it would leave the average early-retiring employee with a pension that would lie “below the federal level for a family” — ignoring employees’ duty to put away their own savings to round out their retirement income. Note that feds have access to the government’s 401k-style Thrift Savings Plan, which has some very generous government-contribution provisions of its own.   

The American Postal Workers Union (APWU) also cried out in pain, laying out a scenario that’s supposed to elicit empathy but which will be utterly unmoving to any private-sector citizen: 

“If the FERS annuity supplement is eliminated, many postal workers aged 57 to 62 who are eligible to retire will have a choice — take less in retirement without this supplement or continue working years longer until they can collect Social Security.”

In other words, postal workers and other federal employees would have to make retirement decisions that more closely resemble the trade-offs faced by people who contribute to the economy — not counting, of course, their INFLATION-ADJUSTED PENSIONS kicking in while they’re in their fifties. We’ll have to wait and see if that rhetoric is persuasive in the Senate.

Given the GOP’s demonstrated disinterest in cutting spending, don’t be surprised if the AFGE and APWU get their way. 

Authored by Conor Mulcahy via BitcoinMagazine.com,

For years, Bitcoin in Ireland has quietly simmered at the grassroots level—discussed in pubs and meetups, debated in Telegram groups, and occasionally splashed across headlines with predictable suspicion. But recently, the temperature is beginning to rise. With the release of “A Sound Punt: The Case for Ireland’s Interest in Bitcoin” by Bitcoin Network Ireland (BNI), and a weekend that sees both the Bitcoin Ireland Conference and Aontú’s Ard Fheis, it’s clear momentum is building on the Emerald Isle.

A Sound Punt: A Paper for the Citizens of Ireland

The new paper, released today by Bitcoin Network Ireland, is a concise, accessible document crafted to cut through the noise and present the merits of Bitcoin to the general public and politicians alike. Its aim is straightforward: provide a rational, jargon-free entry point into why Bitcoin matters, especially in an era of euro debasement and rising living costs.

The name itself is a clever pun—while it is a nod to both “sound money” and Ireland’s former currency, the punt, it also playfully suggests that although the majority of people view it as associated with risk, this may be worth reevaluating. It’s a signal that this is about more than technology: it’s about claiming monetary sovereignty and re-examining what makes money “good” in the first place.

What BNI is attempting to accomplish is bridging an important gap in understanding, helping citizens seeking change and government officials looking for solutions to recognize that sound, stateless money has value for everyone. As Parker Lewis famously noted, “Like all successful monies, Bitcoin is money for enemies“—a neutral system that serves all participants regardless of their political stance.

Ireland’s Long and Complicated Relationship With Money

To appreciate the significance of this moment, it’s worth noting that Ireland’s relationship with money has always been distinct from its European neighbors. While the Romans introduced coinage to Britain over a thousand years before it was adopted in Ireland. The native Irish resisted state-issued money, relying instead on barter and bullion well into the second millennium.

In ancient Ireland, the absence of coinage was a testament to a society that was stateless, highly decentralised, and it embraced a polycentric legal system varying between clans. The ideal of that society was that no man in society has rule over others, and even kings could be disposed of if they abused their power.

So it’s perhaps no coincidence that Ireland was the last European society to adopt coinage, as coinage gives power to rulers. Eventually, it was forced upon the land by the English crown in 1601, this period coincided with the final stages of the Nine Years’ War (1594-1603) and the increasing English control over Ireland. To this day, Ireland has never had its own free-floating currency; it has always been tethered to external powers: first the pound sterling, then the European Monetary System, and now the euro under the ECB. So it should come as no coincidence that in recent years, the EU is growing unabated in power and influence over Ireland.

“Give me control over a nation’s currency, and I care not who makes its laws.” 

– Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1743–1812)

Perhaps, given this historical context, Ireland is uniquely positioned to understand the value of sound, stateless money. Bitcoin represents a return to the monetary independence that preceded state-issued currencies, but with the technological advantages of the digital age. Where ancient Irish kingdoms used market goods that couldn’t be manipulated by distant authorities, Bitcoin offers a modern equivalent: a system that can’t be debased or controlled by any power, whether domestic or foreign.

This historical skepticism toward centrally-controlled currency is resurfacing in the present, as the Irish state and its citizens face a new wave of economic uncertainty via euro debasement and tariffs. Geopolitical and economic tensions have rarely felt less stable. Tariff disputes, renewed questions over Ireland’s foreign direct-investment model, and potential tech and pharma layoffs are sure to sharpen the focus on sovereignty and resilience. The release of “A Sound Punt” is timely, inviting the nation to once again question the wisdom of tying its fortunes to distant monetary authorities.

A Political Crossroads

Coinciding with the release of “A Sound Punt,” Dr. Niall Burke—a respected academic and BNI member—will be putting forward two motions at the Aontú Ard Fheis (party conference). Aontú, the party that saw the largest surge in votes in the last general election, has shown itself to be receptive to Bitcoin and is opening its doors to conversations that, until recently, were relegated to the margins. That Bitcoin motions are being presented and accepted at a major party conference is a marker of how the conversation is turning.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Ireland Conference is gathering the country’s growing community of plebs, builders, and advocates. These circles, once on the periphery, are now finding doors opening in political circles.

Public Discontent and a Call for Financial Autonomy

It’s not just Bitcoiners who are seeking alternatives. Ireland is witnessing its largest public demonstrations since the post-GFC days of 2012. Recent marches have drawn in excess of 100,000 people to the streets of Dublin. These protests reflect deep frustration and a sense that the political establishment is no longer in alignment with its people.

What’s particularly striking is how Bitcoin could serve as common ground for seemingly opposing interests. For protesters, Bitcoin offers protection from inflation and defends against government overreach. For a government concerned about economic stability and growth, Bitcoin may be the very solution it needs, especially to protect pension funds and indeed the state’s very own investment fund—ISIF, from inflation over the coming decades. This is the paradox and promise of sound, stateless money. It serves everyone’s interests because it enforces property rights, and can’t be captured or controlled by any single faction.

Last, but not least, MMA star Conor McGregor’s foray into both politics and Bitcoin is something few would have predicted a year ago, but for those with an ear to the ground, this has been a developing story for some time. His proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve is emblematic of a broader national shift: Bitcoin is finally entering the Zeitgeist and perhaps he, like BNI, has a part to play in keeping it there.

Bitcoin is an open-source monetary protocol, and adoption comes from all quarters, irrespective of politics. Bitcoin is neutral, it supports no partisan cause. What’s perhaps not recognized enough is how empowering Bitcoin can be and we should focus on its ability to unite rather than divide, giving every Irish citizen—regardless of their political views—tools for individual liberty, inflation protection, as well as practical solutions for businesses.

Back to “A Sound Punt” Paper

The paper itself makes a compelling case for Ireland’s interest in Bitcoin:

• Sound Money Principles: It evaluates Bitcoin against the six characteristics of “good money”—durability, divisibility, uniformity, portability, verifiability, and scarcity.

• Store of Value: The document highlights Bitcoin’s fixed supply as protection against rising inflation and currency debasement.

• Practical Examples: It provides evidence of Bitcoin’s monetization, comparing the costs of buying a home in Euros vs. Bitcoin over the span of a decade.

• Common Concern Rebuttals: The paper addresses the most common objections to Bitcoin—energy usage, volatility, criminal activity, undermining traditional currencies, and speculation—offering balanced counterarguments to each. 

• Action Steps: Rather than just theoretical arguments, the paper outlines specific actions for individuals, businesses, and the government to consider, from education to strategic Bitcoin reserves.

The Beginning of a Process

No one expects the Irish government to announce a Bitcoin treasury next week, and it’s debatable whether it should establish one at all. But “A Sound Punt” marks the beginning of a process that could, in time, help reshape Ireland’s approach to money and economic sovereignty.

This accessible primer is just the first step in Bitcoin Network Ireland’s broader educational mission. BNI plans to publish a much more comprehensive policy paper for policymakers in the coming months, which is currently going through the editing phase. While “A Sound Punt” introduces the concepts to the general public, the forthcoming document will provide the detailed analysis and policy recommendations that decision-makers need.

As BNI works to elevate this conversation through both public education and policy analysis, the goal remains clear: helping all citizens recognize Bitcoin’s universal value proposition. Holding a modest strategic allocation of bitcoin—at either the individual or institutional level—offers some protection against uncertainty and hope in a time of growing concerns.

Download A Sound Punt: The Case for Ireland’s Interest in Bitcoin from the Bitcoin Network Ireland website.

Geopolitical discussion is swirling around Trump’s confrontation of South Africa’s government and their complicity in a growing race war against white Afrikaners.  The specific issue being open calls for property confiscation and the murder of the white population.  No group or political party is singing songs about killing black Africans.  They are only singing songs about killing whites.

This fact and a myriad of conditions have led many overseas, especially in America, to worry about the potential for full spectrum genocide.  There is already a slow grinding death machine that is chewing up Afrikaner farming communities over the course of years, but it situation could easily cross the line into mass murder. 

Others, however, are rooting for South Africa’s socialist government. 

A common refrain in the past week is the argument that Donald Trump is “pushing SA into the arms of China and the Belt and Road Initiative” by cutting off foreign aid and making the treatment of the Afrikaners into an international debate. What would happen if SA turned to the BRICS?  As if this was not already a reality, South Africa has been closely tied to the BRICS since they formally joined the economic bloc in 2010.  From 2010 to 2018 the BRICS experienced substantial growth and global influence. 

However, the China of 10 years ago is not the China of today.  China’s foreign direct investments (FDI) in Africa were steady since 2003 (like US investments) as the country started buying up oil and raw commodities, but they are now on the decline.

The communist nation’s economy is in dire straits.  The shutdowns during the covid pandemic triggered a deflationary spiral that they have not been able to recover from.  Foreign investments in China have dropped over 77% since 2022.  The country suffered a 27% investment cut in 2024 alone. 

It should be noted that the Chinese were already experiencing an export drop in 2018-2019 due to Trump tariffs and reduced consumer spending in the west.  In 2025, the CCP is struggling with a crushing deflationary crisis – It’s likely if current tariffs remain in place or expand, China will face a financial crash.

In turn, Chinese investment in some regions is shriveling.  To put the money situation in perspective, most African nations have little to no capacity to develop without foreign cash flow.  They need first-world nations to back infrastructure and resource projects.

China’s investment in Africa peaked a decade ago.  Their direct investment into Africa in 2023 was $3.96 billion.  In 2018 China announced a $15 billion foreign aid and investment deal with South Africa, but there are suspicions as to how much of this cash is actually reaching SA. China’s overall cash flow into the region is dropping fast.  This was partially due to the pandemic and the lockdowns, but also because of the greater deflationary crisis that has struck China after they finally started easing conditions for medical tyranny.  

Keep in mind, there’s not a single financial data point coming from the CCP that can be trusted.  The government has thoroughly rigged all stats to show steady growth.  Experts on Chinese employment data suggest that the government is hiding an impressive spike in joblessness.  In the case of youth (workers age 16-25) they argue that China’s unemployment is not 21%, but 46%. 

This number better correlates to China’s falling exports and imports (numbers that are harder to manipulate or hide), and the lack of recovery from the covid lockdowns.

South Africa is also dealing with a persistent trade deficit with China that is benefiting the CCP far more than it is benefiting the SA economy.  South Africa primarily exports raw materials to China while China exports a multitude of finished goods with higher value.  The trade imbalance has resulted in an accumulated cash outflow of US$114.83 billion from South Africa to China.

South Africa only raised concerns about these alarming trends in 2024, at the ninth FOCAC meeting.

In other words, China’s partnership is definitely not a boon for South Africa.  China feeds on other nations, they do not save other nations.  The narrative that China will swoop in to protect SA if the US permanently cuts off foreign aid and investment is perhaps based on an outdated perception of China’s economic strength.  Or, it’s based on delusion.

South Africa’s 32% unemployment rate, instability in infrastructure and depressing violent crime spike are not going to be solved by fizzling investment from China.  China can’t even save itself and has taken to rigging nearly all of it’s economic indicators instead of trying to fix the problem.  Their investment plans are falling by the wayside because they can’t afford to support Africa anymore.  In the meantime, the CCP pays lip service to greater financial cooperation, but the shrinking numbers tell us the real story. 

If the South African government thinks they will be able to attach like a barnacle to China’s economic ship as a way to “stick it to Trump”, then they are in for an unpleasant surprise.