Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A new estimate from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that a COVID-19 variant that has been driving cases in China earlier this year is now the No. 1 strain in the United States.

A CDC estimate, updated on June 26, shows that between June 8 and June 21, the NB.1.8.1 variant now makes up 43 percent of COVID-19 cases in the United States and is ahead of the LP.8.1 variant.

Earlier this month, CDC data showed that NB.1.8.1 had 37 percent of cases and was No. 2 behind the LP.8.1 variant, which saw 38 percent of reported cases at the time. The new CDC estimate this week shows that LP.8.1 now makes up 31 percent of all cases.

The CDC says that wastewater levels show COVID-19 activity is “currently low” despite the NB.1.8.1 variant increase. Only Alaska is reporting “high” levels of the virus, while Hawaii, Nevada, Texas, Missouri, Mississippi, Florida, and Connecticut are seeing “moderate” levels, according to the CDC.

Last week, private data showed that states reporting the variant, which has been dubbed “Nimbus” in some media reports, include Arizona, California, Colorado, New Jersey, New York, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington state as of June 19.

Chinese doctors earlier this month predicted a peak of nationwide COVID-19 cases in July, as the latest data released by Chinese health authorities show that variant NB 1.8.1 is still the main pathogen causing the rapid increase in COVID-19 infections in China.

An internal university research report at China’s Peking University stated that NB.1.8.1 may become the next dominant global strain, with symptoms including a sharp sore throat, fever, runny nose, vomiting, and diarrhea, according to previous Epoch Times reporting.

A worldwide rise in cases late last month is primarily in the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and Western Pacific regions, the World Health Organization said on May 28. The new variant had reached nearly 11 percent of sequenced samples reported globally in mid-May.

The WHO said some Western Pacific countries have reported increases in COVID cases and hospitalizations, but there’s nothing so far to suggest that the disease associated with the new variant is more severe than other variants.

In a statement to The Epoch Times in late May, a CDC spokesperson said the agency “is aware of reported cases of COVID-19 NB.1.8.1 in China and is in regular contact with international partners.”

Prior reports from The Epoch Times, citing Chinese doctors and outside health experts, have said that patients are reporting a sharp sore that’s been dubbed the “razor blade throat” or “razor throat.” Some media outlets, including The Associated Press and international media reports from the UK and India, have used the “razor throat” moniker to describe the NB.1.8.1 variant.

Due to the Chinese Communist Party’s history of covering up information and publishing unreliable data, including underreporting COVID-19 infections and related deaths since 2020, information provided by local doctors and health workers can offer valuable information for understanding the situation on the ground in the totalitarian country.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

WASHINGTON—The United States’ B-2 stealth bomber strike on Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility was the culmination of more than 15 years of study and planning, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine.

Caine joined Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a press briefing on June 26, in which the defense secretary said the June 21 bombing mission was a resounding success that set Iran’s nuclear development back by years.

Caine detailed the military planning that began in 2009 to design a purpose-built method to knock out the Fordow facility, which is buried hundreds of feet underground in a mountainous region of Iran.

A Briefing in a Vault

Caine shed new light on the role of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), an organization tasked with preparing bespoke solutions to destroy highly sensitive targets, including emerging weapons of mass destruction.

“DTRA does a lot of things for our nation, but DTRA is the world’s leading expert on deeply buried, underground targets,” Caine said.

“In 2009, a Defense Threat Reduction Agency officer was brought into a vault at an undisclosed location and briefed on something going on in Iran,” Caine said, declining to identify the DTRA officer by name.

This DTRA officer, and another unnamed member of the agency, were then tasked to work with the intelligence community to study the construction of the Fordow site.

“For more than 15 years, this officer and his teammate lived and breathed this single target: Fordow, a critical element of Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program,” Caine said.

The two DTRA employees spent years studying everything from the geology surrounding Fordow, to the construction materials and other equipment arriving at the facility, so they could model the site and devise a plan.

“They literally dreamed about this target at night when they slept,” Caine said.

Bespoke Bombs

In the course of their study of the Fordow facility, Caine said the pair of DTRA employees leading the project soon determined the U.S. military did not have a weapon that could adequately address the challenge the fortified Iranian nuclear facility presented.

“So, they began a journey to work with industry and other tacticians to develop the GBU-57,” Caine said.

The GBU-57, also known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) or bunker-buster, is a 30,000-pound bomb designed to burrow and explode deep underground.

Military planners then spent years testing the bomb, specifically for the Fordow facility.

“They tested it over and over again. … They accomplished hundreds of test shots, and dropped many full-scale weapons against extremely realistic targets for a single purpose: kill this target at the time and place of our nation’s choosing,” Caine said.

Each GBU-57 is “bespokely” designed for a specific target. He said each one dropped on the Fordow facility “had a unique desired impact angle, arrival, final heading, and fuse” corresponding to its role in the overall mission.

In addition to live-testing the GBU-57, Caine said the program to develop the heavy bunker-buster involved extensive and complex computing.

“In the beginning of its development, we had so many PhDs working on the MOP program, doing modeling and simulation, that we were quietly and in a secret way, the biggest users of supercomputer-hours within the United States of America,” he said.

Operation Midnight Hammer

The U.S. bomber strikes on Fordow were part of a larger mission, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, that also targeted Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities.

B-2 Spirit stealth bombers tasked with striking the Fordow facility were specifically assigned to drop their GBU-57 bombs on a set of ventilation shafts running out of the underground facility. Ahead of the strikes on the Fordow facility, U.S. military planners observed last-minute changes to the site, including the placement of concrete caps on the ventilation shafts to further fortify the facility against an attack. 

Caine said the first weapon dropped on Fordow was specifically designed to remove the concrete caps shielding Fordow’s ventilation shaft. From there, he said, weapons two, three, four, and five were designed to enter the shaft and burrow down into the underground complex at more than 1,000 feet per second, and explode.

The general said a sixth bomb was designed as a “flex weapon,” in case one of the first five weapons failed to achieve its intended effect.

When it comes to assessing the true damage of the strike, Caine said the U.S. intelligence community plays the leading role, rather than the military.

“We don’t grade our own homework; the intelligence community does,” Caine said.

Read the rest here…

An increasing number of Americans are abandoning processed foods and taking control of their own food supply chain—planting backyard gardens and sourcing meat, eggs, dairy, and pantry staples directly from local markets and farms. The trend, which is gaining momentum under the “Make America Healthy Again” movement—and even noted by Goldman—reflects a broader push for food independence and a return to community-based sourcing.

Not everyone is on board with MAHA — especially not the feminist journalists at SELF (owned by the corporate media company Condé Nast), who recently penned an article that reads like a hit piece against MAHA.

Erica Sloan’s critique of MAHA is that food independence is unrealistic and burdensome for women in the modern progressive world. 

In her article titled “How the MAHA Food Agenda Threatens to Set Women Back Decades,” Sloan writes…

But it’s what MAHA isn’t saying that’s most important: Stoking so much fear around these vital industries implies that Americans—more specifically, the mothers of America—need to find a different way to feed their families.

“Women do a disproportionate share of the kind of work that the MAHA movement is asking people to do, which is to grow their own food, to prepare all of their food from scratch, and to avoid processed food and even packaged foods,” Norah MacKendrick, PhD, associate professor of sociology at Rutgers University and author of Better Safe Than Sorry: How Consumers Navigate Exposure to Everyday Toxics, tells SELF. Even today, with approximately 60% of women working outside the home, women still spend about two hours more on housework daily and cook more than twice as many meals a week as men do. The implication that our current food system is inherently unsafe just stands to pile on the labor.

“In order for a family to eat a diet of mostly homegrown or even just homemade meals… that’s going to be a lot more work for women and mothers especially,” Dr. MacKendrick says. It’s an ideal that the MAHA moms have already embodied—and that would be not only unrealistic but unfair to expect from all American families.

Decades? 

The angle that Sloan uses to bash MAHA via a quote from some woman in acemedia is entirely flawed, that’s because MAHA doesn’t force anyone to grow their own food or make everything from scratch—it simply raises awareness about the systemic failures of Big Food and Big Pharma and empowers families to reclaim control where possible. Some folks plant gardens, while others buy from local ranchers and farmers. The movement calls for informed choices and better public policy—not a return to the primitive 1800s—or is asking women to live like the modern-day Amish. 

My wife’s sous vide with reverse sear tenderloin. I married well. pic.twitter.com/4TU6pizHyK

— Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian) September 17, 2024

Heaven forbid women to cook from scratch for their families! More nonsense from the PR journalist … 

MAHA’s villainization of food processing just adds the burden of cooking from scratch to women’s plates.

The journalist concluded the article with this: “Processed and ultraprocessed items are also functional necessities for many, and can spark joy. And again, some of them have positive nutritional value.” 

Meanwhile…

At the end of the article, SELF advises readers to…

Why SELF is targeting MAHA remains a mystery, though the answer may lie in who their mega-corporate advertisers are.

Live Coverage: Arsonist-Led Ambush on First Responders in Idaho

*   *   * 

Update (2011ET): 

Breaking from Fox News:

Two killed after suspect starts shooting at firefighters responding to a wildfire near Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. The suspect has not been caught.

BREAKING: Two killed after suspect starts shooting at firefighters responding to a wildfire near Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. The suspect has not been caught. pic.twitter.com/TO7TGRgpdl

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 30, 2025

*   *   * 

Ever wonder where some of these wildfires start?

Spoiler alert: it’s not the so-called “climate crisis” narrative pushed by far-left Democrats to justify a heist of the US Treasury through climate policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (Green New Deal). In some cases, it’s arson—sometimes even eco-terrorism. 

Shocking news just broke that multiple firefighters and officers were shot in an ambush at the Canfield Mountain Natural Area in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho.

According to North Idoha News, at 1:50 pm local time, multiple firefighters and law enforcement officers were shot in what has been described as a “planned ambush” while responding to a wildfire on Canfield Mountain, believed to have been intentionally set to lure first responders.

“At least one Life Flight helicopter remains on standby, while all others have been released,” the local media outlet reported on Facebook, adding, “Multiple firefighters were shot, and at least one has been transported with life-threatening injuries, though officials confirm the individual was conscious and alert during transport.” 

BREAKING

Kootenai County Sheriff’s Office in Northern Idaho reporting an active shooter incident.

Fire department says multiple firefighters shot and injured while responding to incident in Coeur d’Alene pic.twitter.com/xBmjJSAwYn

— Kevin Dalton (@TheKevinDalton) June 29, 2025

The law-enforcement presence in Coeur d’Alene is incredible right now. Again, we don’t have anything confirmed because the situation is incredibly chaotic and unfolding. This picture is from our photographer at the scene. pic.twitter.com/vCBtI38Hky

— Melissa Luck ☘ (@MelissaKXLY4) June 29, 2025

Idaho scanner audio: “EVERYONE IS SHOT UP HERE.” 

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho scanner audio from earlier: “There’s an active shooter zone! They’re shot down. BC3’s down, BC1’s down. Everybody’s shot up here. Law enforcement, Code 3 now up here! .. Get out of the way. Engine brush 551, do not come up here”.

pic.twitter.com/urk3CprUBw

— AZ Intel (@AZ_Intel_) June 29, 2025

Here’s a breakdown of what’s occurred so far: 

• Shots fired at approx. 2:00 pm

• Idaho Tribune: 9 firefighters and 2 cops shot

• 2 Deaths 

• Fire believed to have been set as a trap

• At least one firefighter transported with life-threatening injuries, but conscious and alert

• FBI, US Marshals on scene

• Additional victims may still be on the hillside 

• One Life Flight helicopter remains; others released 

• Assistance from Spokane and beyond has arrived

• Two armed suspects may still be at large

• People in the Canfield, Little North Fork, or Bumblebee drainage areas should move to safety immediately

• Local Sheriff: “We are actively taking sniper fire as we speak.”

• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem briefed on active shooter standoff in Idaho

*Developing… 

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court on June 27 handed down a decision restricting federal judges’ ability to impose nationwide injunctions against executive policies, a ruling that was immediately hailed by President Donald Trump as a win for his administration.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett delivered the opinion of the court, writing, “These injunctions—known as ‘universal injunctions’—likely exceed the equitable authority that Congress has granted to federal courts.”

In comments at a White House press conference, Trump praised the decision as “amazing,” saying it is “one we’re very happy about.”

“This morning, the Supreme Court has delivered a monumental victory for the Constitution, separation of powers, and the rule of law,” Trump said.

The decision comes as judicial injunctions—which can sometimes take the form of prohibitions on a specific policy or federal goal—have threatened Trump’s ability to execute a series of policies pursued by his administration.

Here are six policies that could be affected by the ruling.

Funding for Sanctuary Cities

In February, a federal judge in San Francisco blocked implementation of an executive order targeting federal funding for “sanctuary cities,” describing cities that flout federal immigration law and refuse to assist federal agents in enforcing immigration law.

The judge at the time said this push violated the Tenth Amendment by imposing “coercive conditions intended to commandeer local officials into enforcing federal immigration practices and law.”

After Trump signed the order, Attorney General Pam Bondi issued a directive in February for implementing the funding cut.

“To protect the American people from the effects of unlawful mass migration, President Trump has prioritized securing our Nation’s borders and enforcing federal immigration laws,” the directive read. “In furtherance of that objective, the Department of Justice will ensure that, consistent with law, ’sanctuary jurisdictions’ do not receive access to Federal funds from the Department.”

Voter ID

Trump could also now be able to push ahead with a stalled effort to overhaul U.S. election law through an executive order that would require states to impose stronger voter ID and proof of citizenship requirements.

“The United States has not adequately enforced Federal election requirements that, for example, prohibit States from counting ballots received after Election Day or prohibit non-citizens from registering to vote,” the order said.

It was halted by federal judges in Massachusetts and Washington after 19 states sued.

$3 Trillion Funding Freeze

Another policy that could be affected was an effort by Trump to freeze upwards of $3 trillion in funding and grants to states while they were reviewed for alignment with the administration’s goals and policies.

Twenty-three states sued to block the policy. They were granted favorable rulings, which the government has appealed, by federal judges in Washington and Rhode Island.

The attempted funding freeze comes as part of Trump’s larger effort to reduce federal spending and ensure that such spending aligns with the goals of his administration.

Public School DEI Programs

Another policy that could now be permitted to move ahead centers around diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs in public schools.

The administration, through the Department of Education, has ordered public schools to end such programs or risk losing their share of around $75 billion in federal public school funding.

Judges in three jurisdictions—New Hampshire, Maryland, and Washington—blocked the effort.

Taxpayer Transgender Funding

Another policy that could be back in play is an effort by Trump to block federal funding for medical providers who perform transgender-related procedures on individuals below the age of 19.

In a Jan. 28 executive order, Trump said that the United States “will not fund, sponsor, promote, assist, or support the so-called ’transition’ of a child from one sex to another,” defined as any individual 18 years or younger.

A Baltimore-based federal judge placed an injunction on enforcing the policy in March.

USAID Funding

Finally, the Supreme Court decision could permit Trump to move ahead with his administration’s efforts to effectively end the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and wrap the agency into the State Department.

USAID has been accused of using U.S. taxpayer funding to advance progressive causes domestically and internationally. Trump froze nearly $2 billion for the government body early in his term.

A Washington judge ordered Trump to resume the payments.

The conflict over illegal immigration in the US is rooted in a very simple question:  Should a society have standards for who gets access to its culture and economy?  Does a nation have the right to deny some people while accepting others?

The majority of countries in the world have such rules and restrictions on immigration, yet the US has for some reason become a petri dish for unfettered multiculturalism.  The rest of the planet seems to feel it has the right to demand that Americans open their borders to anyone and everyone.  Specifically, the political left is obsessed with the notion that the US is not allowed to deny entry, and if it does then it is exercising a “fascist” imperative that must be sabotaged.

Inevitably, progressives cite the immigration surge from 1870 to 1900 along with the poem on the Statue of Liberty titled “The New Colossus”, which calls to “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…”  What many people don’t know is that the plaque with the poem wasn’t added to the Statue of Liberty until 1903 and it was written by a feminist and socialist by the name of Emma Lazarus. 

The open borders agenda is not new, it was started by socialists a long time ago and the process is an ongoing one.  

One aspect of immigration law that leftists have exploited for quite some time is the existence of birthright citizenship.  The laws surrounding citizenship outlined in the 14th Amendment were intended to secure rights for newly freed slaves after the Civil War.  They were not meant to be used by foreign invaders as a loophole so they could sneak across the border, drop a baby or two on US soil and avoid deportation.

The Supreme Court’s stance on this issue has shifted back and forth over the decades but their latest decision denies the assumed powers of federal judges to block White House policy unilaterally.  In other words, individual activist judges do not have more power that a lawfully elected president.  This should be obvious, but the political left does not care about election outcomes and the will of the people.  They think they know better.        

The SCOTUS decision allows the Trump Administration to narrow the interpretation of birthright citizenship to children with at least one parent that already has legal standing in the US.  A baby born in America with two illegal alien parents is not automatically a US citizen according to White House policy. 

The court’s ruling does not end the conflict completely, however.  There is civil litigation to address and lower courts will continue to delay in the hopes of derailing deportations.  Immigration activists are already panicking, though; flooding social media with an old and debunked narrative that Trump’s children including Barron Trump are now non-citizens under Trump’s rules.

Ending Birthright Citizenship…

Deportations need to start here. pic.twitter.com/VajiDxG7Ke

— Travis Matthew (@Matthewtravis08) June 28, 2025

The claim is, of course, nonsense, and stems from a lack of understanding when it comes to basic immigration law.  Or, it is a deliberate refusal to acknowledge the difference between legal and illegal migrants. 

Barron Trump was born in March 2006. His mother, Melania Trump, became a US citizen in July 2006

Donald Trump Jr was born in 1977, Ivanka Trump was born in 1981, Eric Trump was born in 1984. Ivana Trump did not become a citizen until 1988.

All Birth-right citizens under Trump. pic.twitter.com/9LlDpwqqVz

— Lara reads banned books in Florida📚🇺🇸 (@MadeInTheUSANJ) June 27, 2025

This is a disconnect from reality that has persisted since Trump began his secure borders campaign, with leftists claiming that Melania Trump and her children are subject to deportation and that Trump is a “hypocrite” for wanting some migrants removed while being married to an immigrant. 

As Trump moves to end birthright citizenship – it might be a good time to point out the fact that Ivana was not a US citizen when Don Jr, Ivanka & Eric were born and Melania was not a US citizen when Barron was born. pic.twitter.com/Q3RzEnTMMw

— anyone_want_chips (@anyonewantchips) June 27, 2025

As in all things, arguing with stupid people is dangerous because one often has to sink down to their level and roll around in the gutter.  That said, it’s worth reminding people once again that Trump’s position does not oppose all immigration, just illegal immigration.  The difference is clear; if a foreigner goes through proper channels then they are a legal citizen.  This includes Melania Trump who received her citizenship status in 2006.  Trump’s children are automatically citizens, not necessarily because they were born in the US but because Trump is a citizen. 

This is not hard to understand.

Progressive fact checking organizations have even debunked this argument, noting that all of Trump’s children and Melania are distinctly legal, as opposed to migrants that invade the border and have children in order to anchor themselves legally.  The political left’s refusal to accept the difference is a tiresome ploy that needs to end.

Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced on Sunday that he will not seek re-election, just one day after voting “no” on a procedural vote to advance President Donald Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ – for which Trump attacked Tillis in a series of posts on Truth Social. 

“In Washington over the last few years, it’s become increasingly evident that leaders who are willing to embrace bipartisanship, compromise, and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species,” Tillis said in a statement, adding “It underscores the greatest form of hypocrisy in American politics. When people see independent thinking on the other side, they cheer. But when those very same people see independent thinking coming from their side, they scorn, ostracize, and even censure.“

“As many of my colleagues have noticed over the last year, and at times even joked about, I haven’t exactly been excited about running for another term. That is true since the choice is between spending another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock in Washington or spending that time with the love of my life Susan, our two children, three beautiful grandchildren, and the rest of our extended family back home. It’s not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking re-election.”

Tillis’ decision creates a political opportunity for Democrats, as it now means a wide-open Senate race in a state that has long been a contested battleground. 

In several posts to Truth Social, Trump slammed Tilis for being one of two GOP senators who voted against the bill – accusing him of seeking publicity with his “no” vote, and threatening to launch a campaign against him. 

“Tillis is a talker and complainer, NOT A DOER,” Trump wrote. 

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Fed Week? Animal Spirits?

While many are assuming the July 30th FOMC meeting is a “no-go” and the first rate cut isn’t likely until the September 17th meeting, that could be wrong. We will also touch on “Animal Spirts” in this report, as that will be the next driver for the economy, even more than the markets.

But first, let’s revisit Academy’s Geopolitical content this week.

• We start with Saturday night’s rapid assessment of the U.S. Strikes on Iran.
• This dovetailed into our weekend T-Report – A LOT of Moving Parts.
  • While that incorporated an update on the Middle East, it also highlighted other “moving parts” the market is dealing with – tariffs, who the President is being advised by, the Big Beautiful Bill, Russia and Ukraine, Questioning the Fed, and the Art of the Deal.
  • These topics remain front and center for the economy and markets.
• On Tuesday we published Peace Through Strength.
  • We cannot emphasize this report enough, as it consolidates our take on the attacks and the various paths forward. While a week might not seem like a long time (it does, though, lately), it has stood the test of time. Whatever competing narratives are playing out in the media, we believe this gets to the heart of the matter.
    • Not only was serious damage done, but an incredibly powerful message was sent not just to Iran, but also to all of America’s adversaries.
• Finally, we also published our latest Around the World, which has grown in size and scope commensurate with the expansion of our Geopolitical Intelligence Group, and the importance of geopolitical risks in today’s world.

Digesting that information is enough, and we could almost stop here, but we want to reiterate our views on the Fed/rates and introduce our take on Animal Spirits.

Could This Week Re-Shape the Fed Narrative?

We get a LOT of jobs data this week. In Getting The Fed to Get Ahead we argued that any “good” data had elements that went against the “good” narrative and that “bad” and even “ugly” data abounded.

Nothing since we wrote that piece gives us any reason to assume the jobs data is better. Sure, the Establishment Survey Headline Number might beat again. This would defy statistical probability that so many economists with vast resources who forecast the number are wrong (only to be proven correct down the road when all the revisions hit). However, there is a real risk that the data is very disappointing (including our ongoing concerns about how seasonal adjustments are calculated).

Spending disappointed and even with relatively tame “whisper numbers,” the risk remains to the disappointing side on jobs data.

We also mentioned why we think the Fed’s inflation concerns related to tariffs are overstated in that report.

On Thursday, we added more arguments against the Fed’s overly cautious tariff inflation concerns in the Tariff Revenue Chart.

• The tariffs collected so far are a drop in the bucket compared to the size of the economy.
• Tariff mitigation strategies are being employed in many ways, which will reduce the cost of many tariffs and certainly delay the timing of anything that might be passed on to the consumer, well past the next few weeks (or even months).

We fully expect the market to agree with our take by the end of this week’s data and news cycle.

Own Duration

We continue to like owning duration. Clearly everything we describe above (and our outlook of 3 to 4 cuts this year, potentially starting in July) supports that trade. In the aforementioned tariff chart, we highlight the revenue being generated by tariffs and why this is good for lowering bond yields.

There was recently some discussion about “dramatically scaling back the issuance of notes and bonds issued by the Treasury Department.”

While we paraphrase a bit here (maybe a lot) there are some signs the administration may decide the Fed is wrong, yields are too high, and that they will issue only short-dated obligations!

• Go For It.
  • The T-Report has been advising companies to hold/manage their current debt issuance because we think rates can go lower.
  • The T-Report is advising asset managers to get long duration because we think rates should go lower.
  • If the government asked for our opinion, we would support this decision.
  • We NEVER understood why the only borrower who didn’t take advantage of ZIRP was the U.S. government. Corporations locked in low yields for as long as possible. Individuals locked in low yields for as long as possible (it is why Fed cuts and hikes don’t translate to the consumer the way they once did, because most of America has mortgages under 3%).

If this idea gains traction, look for curves to flatten and duration to outperform (and this is only in addition to all the other reasons why we have liked it).

Sure, at 4.27%, 10s are not the “screaming buy” they were a few weeks ago, but they should drift toward 4.1%, with a lot of catalysts out there that could force any remaining shorts to cover.

Animal Spirits

With U.S. stocks at all-time highs, we have seen animal spirits impact investors. It is unclear how much they have hit corporate America, or even the American consumer.

• Corporations seem content to invest heavily in AI. But how much is the average company investing away from that?
  • Small and midsize companies seem particularly constrained.
• The consumer data, while generally still strong, seems to be exhibiting some fault lines (not cracks, but fault lines).
• With little pushback, we have discussed the concept that no matter what you think the current economy and policies do for your business, there is a bias to act slightly more conservatively.
• One company’s expenses are another company’s revenue. Simplistic and trite, but real.

The market can continue to do well if the administration can unlock animal spirits in the economy. We seem to be on the cusp of that.

• The attack on Iran gives a degree of confidence about the power of America. This can generate positive “vibes” and can undo some of the damage that has been done to the American Brand.
  • The success of NATO getting more spending fits this narrative well.
• The Big Beautiful Bill. We’ve argued that what actually gets passed is less important than getting something passed through “normal” legislation. Not executive order. The House and the Senate approving a bill and turning it into law is a big deal (heck, even a big, beautiful deal). There will be plenty of time to argue about the costs, the winners, the losers, etc., but getting this passed should help animal spirits.
• National Production for National Security. Deregulation. We will once again focus on this later in the week, but that could be the massive accelerant the economy needs.
• Tariffs are a wildcard. More pauses and even a few deals – all good. More threats, escalations, etc., and we could undo some of the good.

Markets will need the “Animal Spirts” they have already exhibited to be picked up by the economy. There are plenty of reasons to believe that could occur, with tariff policy probably being the biggest threat (it shouldn’t be, but as we saw on Friday afternoon, it could be).

Bottom Line

The data on jobs, and the narrative on inflation this week, should heavily influence the Fed at the end of the month.

Re-awakening animal spirits across the economy is probably necessary to justify current market levels, but this will depend on which direction the administration heads in on several fronts. Currently, they seem to be leaning towards steps that go towards changing caution to excitement.

Have a great weekend and thank you for allowing Academy the opportunity to help you navigate these incredibly tricky times.

Under the Biden-Harris regime, and with backing from rogue sanctuary states, thousands—if not tens of thousands—of non-English-speaking migrants have been granted non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses (CDLs), a decision now under intense scrutiny following a series of deadly crashes involving 80,000-pound big rigs, including a horrific incident in Austin, Texas, that left five Americans dead.

On Friday, the US Department of Transportation (DoT) released a statement about DoT Sec. Duffy is preparing to launch a nationwide audit into states issuing non-domiciled CDLs, more specifically examining the potential for unqualified individuals obtaining these licenses to operate big rigs on America’s highways. 

“This action responds directly to a key directive from President Donald J. Trump’s Executive Order on Enforcing Commonsense Rules of the Road for America’s Truck Drivers and is part of Secretary Duffy’s commitment to safety,” a statement read from DoT.  

DoT Sec. Duffy stated, “The open borders policies of the last administration allowed millions to flood our country – leading to serious allegations that the trucking licensing system is being exploited.” 

“Today, we are launching a nationwide audit to get to the bottom of this … and our aduit about protecting the safety of families on the road and upholding the integrity of CDLs held by America’s truckers. Every state must follow federal regulations, and ensure only qualified, properly documented drivers are getting behind the wheel of a truck,” Sec. Duffy said. 

Last Wednesday, the English Language Proficiency (ELP) rule went into effect under a DoT Executive Order, requiring all commercial drivers to demonstrate English proficiency or face out-of-service (OOS) violations.

Trucking news site Freight Waves estimates ELP “could significantly reduce trucking capacity” by upwards of 10%, while Border Report points out that trucking companies are scrambling…

Ahead of the implementation of President Trump’s Executive Order 14286, titled “Enforcing Commonsense Rules of the Road for America’s Truck Drivers,” which went into effect last Wednesday, the advocacy group American Truckers United penned a letter to Sec. Duffy highlighting the urgent need to address national security concerns on America’s highways.

American Truckers United delivered a letter to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, requesting support for our petition to ban non-domicile CDLs issued to non-citizens and to restrict foreign CDLs. https://t.co/uQv0hwIvmC pic.twitter.com/z71Ba8XnJ6

— American Truckers (@atutruckers) June 19, 2025

Duffy’s action against sanctuary states, which handed out non-domiciled CDLs like candy, suggests he may have finally listened to American Truckers United’s repeated warnings. It’s time for serious action to restore safety and security. The loss of American lives due to reckless, unvetted, non-domiciled CDL holders is unacceptable. It’s time to hold rogue sanctuary states accountable.

In an interview on Fox News Sunday Morning Futures with host Maria Bartiromo, President Donald Trump sounded off on a wide range of issues from the leaked report on U.S. strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities to the future of TikTok and the New York City mayoral race.

On the leak of a classified report detailing U.S. military actions against Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump expressed frustration, calling for swift action to identify those responsible. “They should be prosecuted,” Trump told Bartiromo. When pressed on who specifically should face consequences, the president replied, “You can find out. If they wanted, they could find out easily.”

.@realDonaldTrump suggested tracking down and prosecuting the leakers of a preliminary intelligence assessment of the damage inflicted by the recent U.S. strike on Iran.

DETAILS: https://t.co/mL8m9j1t2p pic.twitter.com/nd68ofIldi

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) June 29, 2025

Trump suggested a direct approach to uncovering the source: “You go up and tell the reporter, ‘national security, who gave it?’ You have to do that. And I suspect we’ll be doing things like that.”

Turning to the social media platform TikTok, Trump announced progress in securing its future under American ownership, a move aimed at addressing national security concerns tied to its Chinese parent company. In true Trump fashion, the president revealed that a group of “very wealthy people” had emerged as buyers, with further details to be disclosed in roughly two weeks. The deal, if finalized, would mark a significant step in reducing foreign influence over a platform widely used by Americans.

Trump: “We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way.”

Bartiromo: “Who’s the buyer?”

Trump: “I’ll tell you in about two weeks.” pic.twitter.com/qxF3WMZ3Z8

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 29, 2025

Trump also weighed in on New York City’s mayoral race, focusing on Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic socialist who recently won the Democrat primary. The president, a former New York resident, declined to endorse a candidate but issued a stern warning about Mamdani’s policies, particularly his opposition to mass deportation efforts.

Labeling Mamdani a “communist,” Trump said, “He’s a communist. I think it’s very bad for New York. I don’t know that he’s going to get in. It’s inconceivable.” The president added a pointed message about federal support for the city: “I can tell you this — whoever is mayor of New York is going to have to behave themselves or the federal government is going down very tough on them financially.” Should Mamdani win, Trump emphasized, “If he does get in, I’m going to be president and he’s going to have to do the right thing. They’re not getting any money.”

.@POTUS on Zohran Mamdani: “He’s a communist. I think it’s very bad for New York… but let’s say this: if he does get in, I’m going to be president and he’s going to have to do the right thing…” pic.twitter.com/YQaum1L9q5

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 29, 2025

Trump also touted his “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” claiming it would deliver $1.7 trillion in savings. “We’re cutting $1.7 trillion, think of it, I think I just saw the number a little while ago, but we can grow our country so much more than that,” the president said.

“You also have to get elected. When you do cutting, you have to be a little bit careful, because people don’t like, necessarily, the cutting if they get used to something,” the president added. “And what I want to do is to do it through growth. We’re gonna have growth like we’ve never seen before.”

Trump then said the bill would “take care” of border security and warned that its failure could trigger a 68% tax increase, underscoring the high stakes of the legislative push.

🇺🇸 TRUMP: “IF WE DON’T HAVE THE DEBT CEILING, THERE’S A 68% TAX INCREASE”

“The debt ceiling extension is very important.

Republicans gave a debt ceiling… they did that for the good of the country.

They did a big favor.

Now it’s [the Dems] turn to do it, and they won’t do… https://t.co/IWIzrIzaeC pic.twitter.com/Vytp64RJeO

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 29, 2025

The measure cleared its initial procedural vote in the Senate on Saturday, passing 51-49. Two Republican senators broke ranks, joining all Democrats in opposing the measure.

The interview also touched on Trump’s evolving relationship with SpaceX CEO and former Department of Government Efficiency head Elon Musk, whom he praised as a “wonderful guy” despite a past falling out he described as “inappropriate.”

🇺🇸 TRUMP: “IF WE DON’T HAVE THE DEBT CEILING, THERE’S A 68% TAX INCREASE”

“The debt ceiling extension is very important.

Republicans gave a debt ceiling… they did that for the good of the country.

They did a big favor.

Now it’s [the Dems] turn to do it, and they won’t do… https://t.co/IWIzrIzaeC pic.twitter.com/Vytp64RJeO

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 29, 2025

On Saturday, Musk called Trump’s mega tax and spend bill “utterly insane and destructive,” arguing that it would harm innovative industries like solar, battery, and nuclear energy while favoring “industries of the past.”

Musk, whose company Tesla is a major player in battery storage and solar energy, warned that the legislation would “destroy millions of jobs” and cause “immense strategic harm” to the U.S.