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Stellar 7Y Auction Sees Highest Stop Through Since 2022, Record Low Dealers

Stellar 7Y Auction Sees Highest Stop Through Since 2022, Record Low Dealers

It’s only fitting that a week of impressive coupon auctions would conclude with what was the strongest 7Y auction in years.

Moments ago, with the nervous bond market still on edge over the recent bond collapse in Japan, the Treasury concluded the week’s final auction when it sold $44 billion in 7Y paper. It was spectacular.

The high yield was 4.194%, which while 7bps higher than last month, stopped through the When Issued 4.216% by 2.2bps, the biggest stop through since Dec 22.

The bid to cover rose from 2.55 to 2.70, the highest since December and well above the six-auction average of 2.64.

The internals were most remarkable, however, with Indirects surging from 59.3% to 71.5%, the highest since December’s record 87.9%. And with Directs taking down 23.6%, down modestly from 25.4% in April, Dealers were left holding just 4.85%, the lowest on record.

Overall, this was one of the best 7 Year auctions in a long time…

… with stellar results even as yields hit session lows just around the time of the auction. Not surprisingly, 10Y yields dripped to fresh session lows just around 4.42 after the results hit, although they recovered some of the move in the minutes since.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 13:31

Rickards On Gold Leasing: Is It All There?

Rickards On Gold Leasing: Is It All There?

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

Our friend and colleague Jim Rickards has the energy and drive of a 20-year old. I try to read everything he writes, and watch all his media appearances. But sometimes a gem slips through the cracks.

Two months ago, Jim was featured on Daniela Cambone’s Youtube show. This was a gem, and luckily a reader alerted us to it.

The provocative title is “Jim Rickards: Is the Gold Gone? Did the U.S. Treasury Lease it? This Would Break the System”.

The interview took place during the beginning of the trade war tensions, so the first 7:00 minutes of the discussion can be skipped (unless you want a recap).

At the 7:40 minute mark, Daniela and Jim get deep into the fundamentals of gold. How it’s priced, delivered, and traded internationally.

Jim explains that the vast majority of gold is traded as paper contracts.

Only about 1% of gold traded on futures exchanges like the COMEX is ever physically delivered.

Mr. Rickards goes on to explain that exchanges like the COMEX can change the rules whenever they please. For example, when the Hunt Brothers cornered the silver market in 1980, COMEX did not allow them to take physical delivery.

Tampering With The “Primal Forces”

When the topic of Fort Knox gold comes up, Jim says that the gold is all there. However, his concern is whether that gold has been leased (on paper, not physically) to the bullion banks.

“You can have a hundred tonnes of paper gold transactions supported by one physical tonne that got leased by the Treasury to JPMorganChase.”

Gold bugs have long suspected that bullion banks, such as JPMorganChase and Goldman Sachs, have “leased” gold from the U.S. Treasury. And it’s possible that gold has been “rehypothecated” many times, meaning that multiple individuals believe they own the same piece of gold.

Jim notes that when we ask questions about gold leasing, we are essentially “tampering with the primal forces”.

He goes on to explain the difference between allocated and unallocated gold, and how the rehypothecation process works.

This interview is a must-watch for all Jim Rickards fans.

And here is further reading on this fascinating and controversial topic:

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 13:20

For First Time Since 2019, Trump Invites Powell To White House To Discuss Economy

For First Time Since 2019, Trump Invites Powell To White House To Discuss Economy

The day after we posted this on X: 

President Trump invited Fed Chair Powell to The White House for the first time since 2019.

Earlier this month, Powell indicated he would not seek a meeting with Trump, unless the president sought one.

“I’ve never asked for a meeting with any President, and I never will,” Powell said in a news conference.

“I wouldn’t do that. There’s never a reason for me to ask for a meeting. It’s always been the other way.”

The Fed reported that at the President’s invitation, Chair Powell met with the President today at the White House to discuss economic developments including for growth, employment, and inflation.

Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.

Finally, Chair Powell said that he and his colleagues on the FOMC will set monetary policy, as required by law, to support maximum employment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis.

So, they didn’t discuss what’s different this time and why Powell didn’t cut rates?

Weak macro data (red arrow), collapse in financial conditions (orange oval), and recovery in macro surprises (green arrow)… prompted a 50bps cut in September (six weeks before the election). But this time… ‘pause’ is the message.

…but, but, but remember, they are apolitical!!

 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 13:00

Saifedean Ammous: “Nothing Stops This Train” – Tether, Bitcoin, & The Endgame For The Dollar

Saifedean Ammous: “Nothing Stops This Train” – Tether, Bitcoin, & The Endgame For The Dollar

Authored by Jenna Montgomery via BitcoinMagazine.com,

At Bitcoin 2025, economist and author Saifedean Ammous laid out a bold vision for the future of global finance, asserting that Bitcoin – not the U.S. dollar – will anchor tomorrow’s economy, with Tether as the bridge…

Saifedean Ammous, CEO of Saifedean.com and author of The Bitcoin Standard, delivered a data-driven keynote at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference, warning of inevitable U.S. dollar decline and positioning Bitcoin as the only rational hedge.

“Default, devaluation, or default by devaluation are inevitable,” Ammous declared, adding pointedly, “Tether can’t fix what a century of fiat democracy ruined.”

Using projections and flow charts, Ammous argued that Tether’s Bitcoin strategy could soon outpace its U.S. dollar reserves.

“Then Tether will break the peg upwards,” he said, predicting a scenario where 1 USDT could equal 1.02 USD and continue revaluing as the dollar weakens. “Tether becomes a relatively stablecoin as the dollar declines.”

The talk emphasized what Ammous described as a self-reinforcing loop: as USDT demand rises, so does Tether’s need for BTC reserves, which drives up Bitcoin prices—leading to even more revaluation.

“This is a significant impact on the market,” he said. “Buying bitcoin is the smartest thing anybody could do.”

In a final sweeping statement, Ammous forecasted the end of the USD era.

“Eventually, USD reserves go to zero next to BTC reserves,” he said.

“USDT keeps getting revalued upward until it is redeemable in bitcoin. USDT → BTCT.”

He called Tether a “transition monetary system” and concluded, “Even the most bullish scenario for USD is much more bullish for BTC.” 

To Ammous, the dollar is locked in a downward spiral while Bitcoin, with its “number go up technology,” continues rising.

“The thing that goes up is going to overtake the thing that goes down,” he said—summarizing his entire argument in one sentence.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 12:55

As Merz Teases Taurus Missiles For Ukraine, Russian Sources Warn Berlin Could Become Direct Target

As Merz Teases Taurus Missiles For Ukraine, Russian Sources Warn Berlin Could Become Direct Target

“Of course, it is within the realms of possibility,” the new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, told TV channel ZDF when asked if Germany would supply long-range weapons for Ukrainian troops. This is after he claimed that leading allies such as the US, UK, German, and France have lifted “absolutely” all restrictions on arms limits – something which Washington has yet to confirm or deny.

Merz hinted that Berlin might transfer its long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine this year, but which would take a many months-long training program for Ukrainian military operators. This is also as he promised new military aid worth €5 billion (£4.2 billion), upon hosting President Zelensky in Germany on Wednesday.

Via The Telegraph: A Taurus missile can travel 310 miles

“Ukraine will be able to fully defend itself, including against military targets outside its own territory,” said Merz. While leaving the question of Taurus transfer open, the German leader did promise to bankroll Ukrainian domestic development of long-range missile capability.

“We want to talk about production and we will not publicly discuss details,” Merz affirmed. And BBC added in the wake of the Zelensky-Merz meeting:

Germany’s defense ministry said in a statement that Berlin would finance the production of long-range weapons systems in Ukraine and that the “first of these systems could be deployed in the Ukrainian armed forces in just a few weeks”.

As expected the reaction from the Kremlin was immediate, given Merz is certainly testing Moscow’s red lines: “The Russian Federation will respond ‘harshly, asymmetrically, and decisively’ if Germany proceeds with supplying Taurus missiles to the Kiev regime,” a statement from the State Duma Defense Committee said.

Already over the last several days running Russia’s military has struck Kiev, and has long threatened to ramp up attacks on ‘command centers’ – including places where foreign troops and Western advisers might be located.

Russian state media has been more blunt in reaction to Merz’s comments, warning that Moscow could simply directly strike Berlin if German-made missiles begin raining down on Russian cities…

These threats were not made officially, but this is often how the Kremlin indirectly communicates its most dire warnings – either through a mid-level official or something like the outspoken editor-in-chief of RT.

President Trump has said this week that Putin is “playing with fire” with the continual aerial attacks on Kiev and other locations in Ukraine. But Russia has pointed to the literally thousands of drones launched on its territory from Ukraine this month, which have even reached Moscow, disrupting flights at several international airports.

On Wednesday FM Lavrov announced that the next round of peace talks are set for June 2 in Istanbul – but will the warring sides even make it to the negotiating table? The jingoist war of words and threats are ramping up hotter than ever, with the Kremlin warning that further delays (on key conditions like territorial concessions) mean “peace tomorrow will be even more painful”.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 12:35

Are We Going To War With Iran?

Are We Going To War With Iran?

Just yesterday, President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he personally was behind the push urging Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike Iran. War averted, for now… but as Trump said, “that could change at any moment.”

Debating what Trump should do tonight at 7pm ET on the ZeroHedge homepage will be Libertarian Institute founder Scott Horton and Dr. Meir Javedanfar, professor at Reichmann University in Israel. To avoid moderator biases, the debate will be co-moderated by Clint Russell and Ami Kozak.

Dr. Javedanfar is Iranian-born but escaped and now resides in Israel where he teaches about Israel-Iran policy. He has long warned about Iran’s nuclear advancement and is an advocate for containment and aggressive sanctions.

Horton is a native Texan and Libertarian through-and-through who says “our anti-Iran policy is born in Tel Aviv,” pinning the blame on Israel and Netanyahu.

This should be a fun one. We’ll see you at 7pm ET.

 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 10:45

US Pending Home Sales Plunge Most In 30 Months, Back Near Record Lows

US Pending Home Sales Plunge Most In 30 Months, Back Near Record Lows

US Pending Home Sales plunged 6.3% MoM in April – far more than the 1.0% MoM decline expected (below all estimates) – and the biggest MoM drop since September 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Dragging the Index of Pending Home Sales back down near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Sales fell in all four regions with the West experiencing the biggest drop of 8.9%.

“At this critical stage of the housing market, it is all about mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market.”

As a reminder, pending home sales are often looked to as a leading indicator of existing-home purchases given properties typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 10:09

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Suspending Biden-Era Migrant Parole Programs

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Suspending Biden-Era Migrant Parole Programs

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in Massachusetts on Wednesday ordered the Trump administration to resume processing applications from foreign nationals living in the United States under Biden-era humanitarian parole programs who are seeking work permits or more permanent immigration status.

In handing down her order, District Court Judge Indira Talwani agreed with the Trump administration that the secretary of homeland security has broad discretion to direct immigration policy.

However, she rejected a claim that suspending the parole programs was within that broad discretion, writing that “their conclusion that the Secretary’s actions are wholly shielded from judicial review is incorrect.”

The judge agreed with two organizations that sued the Trump administration—the Justice Action Center and Human Rights First—saying they were likely to succeed on the merits of their argument that any such suspension of the programs was arbitrary and capricious.

Talwani also said it was not in the public interest for hundreds of thousands of immigrants to lose their legal status in the United States.

“This court emphasizes, as it did in its prior order, that it is not in the public interest to manufacture a circumstance in which hundreds of thousands of individuals will, over the course of several months, become unlawfully present in the country, such that these individuals cannot legally work in their communities or provide for themselves and their families,” Talwani wrote in her order.

Talwani’s decision grants a reprieve to thousands of beneficiaries of humanitarian parole programs, including Uniting for Ukraine, Operation Allies Welcome, Central American Minors Parole, Family Reunification Parole, Military Parole in Place, and the process available to Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans known as CHNV humanitarian parole.

Under those programs, individuals from Afghanistan, Latin America, and Ukraine were granted a two-year parole to live in the country on humanitarian or public benefit grounds.

The Trump administration has sought to end the use of the parole program, arguing the Biden administration abused it to “indiscriminately allow 1.5 million migrants to enter our country.”

In August 2024, the Biden administration put the parole program on hold after authorities discovered fraudulent information in thousands of application forms filed by sponsors.

After taking office in January, President Donald Trump terminated the CBP One app service, which was established under the previous administration to allow migrants outside the United States to schedule appointments at U.S. ports of entry.

Following Trump’s order, Acting Homeland Security Secretary Benjamine Huffman issued a directive ending what he described as “the broad abuse of humanitarian parole,” returning the program to a case-by-case basis.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials subsequently stopped processing new parole applications.

In her ruling, Talwani said federal law still requires agencies under DHS to follow a lengthy process for granting or denying parole and other immigration relief.

One of the Trump administration’s orders “gives no reasoned explanation for its decision and thus no basis for the suggestion that such action is ‘consistent with applicable statutes, regulations and court orders,’” she wrote.

Another directive ordering an examination of certain parole programs to determine if they were strictly in accordance with law was “unclear” and included “no findings that the Parole Programs are not strictly” in accordance with law, she said.

Human Rights Group Welcomes Ruling

Anwen Hughes, director of legal strategy for refugee programs at Human Rights First, welcomed the decision. She said the ruling “reaffirms what we have always known to be true: our government has a legal obligation to respect the rights of all humanitarian parole beneficiaries and the Americans who have welcomed them into their communities.”

“We are pleased that the court has again rightly recognized the harm the government’s arbitrary decision-making has inflicted on innocent people, and we share the judge’s hope that the government will adhere to this order and immediately resume adjudicating our clients’ applications for relief,” she said.

Last month, Talwani blocked the Trump administration from revoking the parole status of hundreds of thousands of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans.

The administration has asked the Supreme Court to pause her decision, arguing it prevents the executive branch “from exercising its discretionary authority over a key aspect of the Nation’s immigration and foreign policy and thwarts Congress’s express vesting of that decision in the Secretary, not courts.”

The Epoch Times contacted DHS for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 10:05

US Cancels $700 Million Moderna Bird Flu Vaccine Contract

US Cancels $700 Million Moderna Bird Flu Vaccine Contract

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via Substack,

In what could be a massive shift away from bird flu pandemic orchestration, the Trump administration has canceled its contract with Moderna for developing an avian influenza “bird flu” vaccine for humans, including purchase rights.

“The Company had previously expected to advance the program to late-stage development with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS); however, today Moderna received notice that HHS will terminate the award for the late-stage development and right to purchase pre-pandemic influenza vaccines,” according to a Wednesday press release from Moderna.

Moderna in January was awarded $590 million by the Biden admin to advance the development of its bird flu vaccine, in addition to $176 million awarded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services last year to complete the late-stage development and testing of a pre-pandemic mRNA-based vaccine against the H5N1 avian influenza, Reuters pointed out.

Is the Moderna cancellation a signal that the administration is moving away from escalating bird flu pandemic orchestration?

It’s difficult to tell right now.

The unprecedented cancellation comes just after the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) quietly confirmed the federal government’s plans to launch clinical trials for a “universal vaccine” for influenza in 2026—a synthetic injection built by fusing together parts of multiple virus strains into a single dose.

It also comes after the Trump admin’s recent announcement of the development of a $500 million “next-generation, universal vaccine platform” called ‘Generation Gold Standard’ that will focus on bird flu jab creation.

This website has been sounding the alarm since early 2024 on the government’s orchestration of a coming bird flu pandemic, when we reported the USDA was simultaneously performing gain-of-function experiments on purported bird flu viruses (the problem) while developing an mRNA shot against the pathogens (the solution).

The news is welcome for those opposed to government pandemic planning.

But Moderna isn’t giving up.

“While the termination of funding from HHS adds uncertainty, we are pleased by the robust immune response and safety profile observed in this interim analysis of the Phase 1/2 study of our H5 avian flu vaccine and we will explore alternative paths forward for the program,” said Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel. “These clinical data in pandemic influenza underscore the critical role mRNA technology has played as a countermeasure to emerging health threats.”

Earlier this month, we reported how Moderna just opened a new 290,000 sq ft facility in the U.K. that will produce up to 250 million vaccines per year.

According to Moderna’s new press release, the pandemic profiteer “will explore alternatives for late-stage development and manufacturing of the H5 program consistent with the Company’s strategic commitment to pandemic preparedness.”

It could be that the administration is still moving forward with bird flu orchestration and merely looking at different vaccine platforms, like those utilizing “self-amplifying mRNA” (sa-mRNA) technology.

For example, Arcturus Therapeutics announced in November that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had granted approval for its Investigational New Drug (IND) application for ARCT-2304, a self-amplifying mRNA injection targeting the H5N1 bird flu virus.

So is this the end of bird flu pandemic orchestration—or just a pivot from Moderna’s mRNA to a new wave of even more experimental, self-replicating genetic platforms?

Time will tell.

 

And we will be watching.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 09:25

Q1 GDP Revision Reveals Big Deterioration In Personal Spending In “Kitchen Sink” Report

Q1 GDP Revision Reveals Big Deterioration In Personal Spending In “Kitchen Sink” Report

Of all the economic reports, the BEA’s periodic update of US GDP is the most useless because not only is it politically motivated, but it gets constantly revised so much that by the time we get a somewhat accurate description of how strong the economy is, it is already one – if not two quarters – later. Today’s second estimate of Q1 GDP – a quarter which ended almost two months ago – is just such an example. 

Moments ago the BEA reported that in Q1, US GDP shrank at a 0.2% annualized pace, a modest improvement from the -0.3% initial print which was also the median consensus.

According to the BEA, GDP was revised up 0.1% from the advance estimate, reflecting an upward revision to investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. 

While there were few notable changes between the initial report and the revision, the most notable revision was in personal consumption which was cut by a third from 1.7% increase in the first print to  just 1.2% in the latest, making this the weakest quarter for personal spending since Q2 2023.

Here are some other notable changes:

  • Personal consumption contributed just 0.8% to the bottom line GDP print, down from 1.21% in the first estimate and down sharply from 1.21% in Q4.
  • Fixed Investment came at 1.34%, unchanged from the preliminary print, and largely driven by major data center investments
  • The change in private inventories largely offset the drop in personal consumption, adding 2.64% to the final GDP print – the largest contribution by far – from 2.25% initially.
  • Trade or net exports (exports less imports), was generally in line, subtracting a whopping 4.9% from the GDP number, a modest deterioration from the 4.84% original print.
  • Finally, government subtracted 0.12% from the GDP number, an improvement from the -0.25% original decline.

And visually:

The sharp revision in personal consumption meant that Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, often viewed as a much more accurate indicator of actual growth, increased 2.5% in the first quarter, revised down 0.5% point from the previous estimate.

While the GDP data was stale, the inflation data was especially so, even if there were even fewer changes here:

  1. GDP price index rose 3.7%, unchanged from the original number and in line with estimates
  2. Core PCE (ex food and energy) was 3.4%, a fractional drop from the 3.5% originally reported.

Overall, the report painted an uglier picture of the US economy in Q1, although it is likely a “kitchen sink” because in Q2 we expect that the bullwhip from the jump in imports (a boost to GDP) coupled with the deferred surge in personal consumption to propell Q2 GDP to 3% if not higher.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/29/2025 – 09:09