By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

“May you live in interesting times” is a phrase sometimes erroneously attributed as an ancient Chinese curse. The general idea being that “interesting” times are more likely to be tumultuous and hard, rather than easy and comfortable. Given that we now live in a time where established orthodoxies like “free trade is always and everywhere a good thing”, ‘the international rules-based order’ and “there will never be an American Pope” are being overturned, its fair to say that the current climate meets the standard for “interesting”.

The big market-related news this morning is the trade talks between China and the United States in Geneva over the weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the talks resulted in “substantial progress”, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also extolled “important progress” without offering specifics. President Trump went so far as to call the talks a “total reset” on the US-China relationship, but if that’s the case the risk-on tone in markets this morning seems underdone. Perhaps this is one of those occasions where traders’ reticence to price in “he means what he says” actually works because deep divergence of interests means that there is unlikely to be any substantive meat on these bones? Risk assets are minorly bid this morning and Bessent says an announcement of particulars will be made later today.

Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping travelled to Moscow last week to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade, marking 80-years since the defeat of Nazi Germany in WWII. At the event Xi described the relationship between Russia and China as “unbreakable” and said that they were ”friends of steel”, which might be a little awkward for the European trade boffins who see closer ties with China as a card that they can play in negotiations with the United States. Is the friend of my enemy my enemy? Or can we still be friends while I pretend that he doesn’t pal around with unsavoury characters that are fighting wars of aggression against my other, smaller friends? It’s hard to see how Europe could lay claim to usurping the USA as the new torchbearer of freedom and democracy (as some have claimed it has done) while pursuing such naked self-interest on the trade front.

Of course, others are happy to drop the pretext that they are pursuing anything other than naked self-interest. President Zelenskyy, backed by European counterparts, had offered a 30-day ceasefire in the war against Russia, but was rebuffed by Moscow who countered by offering direct talks to be hosted in Istanbul later this week. Zelenskyy, increasingly pressured by the US to cut a deal to end hostilities, says that he is ready to talk but it is unclear whether he will be meeting with Vladimir Putin in person. What IS clear is the likely terms offered by Russia for peace: no NATO membership for Ukraine, recognition of Russian dominion over Crimea, no international peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory, recognition of Russian control over territory in Eastern Ukraine and strict caps on Western military aid to Ukraine. All of that sounds a bit ‘Treaty of Versailles’, but the realpolitik here is clear: Russia is nakedly pursuing its vital strategic interests and the ‘international rules-based order’ really doesn’t feature.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, India tweaked the US’ nose for suggesting that it had brokered the tenuous ceasefire that is currently holding vis-à-vis Pakistan, and PM Modi reportedly told J.D. Vance that any further attacks from Pakistan will be met with “devastating and strong” retaliation from New Delhi. A number of news outlets have noted in recent days that the tit-for-tat exchanges between the two South Asian neighbours has provided an interesting sandbox for testing Chinese military hardware (as deployed by Pakistan) against Western weaponry increasingly adopted by India. No doubt there will be many interested onlookers should hostilities flare up again, as seems likely.

President Trump will travel to Riyadh today to meet with Saudi Arabian officials. Saudi reportedly wants to do a deal to access civilian nuclear technology, and has told the US that if they are unwilling to supply it they may look elsewhere (read, China). Meanwhile, the relationship between the United States and Israel seems to be deteriorating as the USA tries to do a deal with Iran over its own nuclear ambitions (a red line for Israel), calls time-out on strikes against the Houthis, and flirts with the prospect of recognizing a Palestinian state. Israeli PM Netanyahu is digging his heels in over extending the war in Gaza (much to the frustration of the USA) and comments attributed to Netanyahu suggesting that Israel may need to “detox” itself from US security assistance are currently spreading across social media. The trend in developments here seems to suggested that odds of diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia an Israel are lengthening, which is a win for Iran and another L for Western-liberal multilateralism.

So, the world remains in a geopolitical flux as the architecture hammered out at Bretton Woods appears to be breathing its last and Great States vie to shape the emerging global order. Markets are still ticking along though, with gold down, oil up, the DXY index back above 100, yields on US 10’s rising again and stocks opening up bid.

We may live in interesting times, but in the markets it’s all very ho-hum.

Authored by Julian Adorney via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Colorado state legislature is considering a bill that would radically chill parents’ speech. Dubbed the “Kelly Loving Act,” the bill, if signed into law, would empower judges to consider “deadnaming” and “misgendering” your child to be types of “coercive control” when they’re making custody decisions. In simple terms: if your child gender transitions and you don’t affirm their new gender identity, then a judge could consider your non-affirmation to be a form of abuse and use it as justification to deny you custody of your child.

This is a deeply chilling bill. The bill’s sponsors frame it as a way to show support for transgender people, but this bill goes way too far in stripping away parents’ rights.

Being a good and loving parent means telling your child “no.” Every parent has had these conversations.

“No, you can’t have M&Ms for dinner; eat your broccoli.”

“No, you can’t stay up until midnight. Your bedtime is ten.”

“No, you can’t hang out with Chad who’s always high; find some friends who will have a better influence on you.”

But when it comes to gender transitioning, saying “no” could be dangerous. If your son decides to socially transition and begins calling himself a girl, and you don’t unconditionally affirm that decision, then you could risk losing him if you’re ever in a child custody battle.

Some advocates of gender transitioning say that socially transitioning is harmless. After all, what does it matter if your son starts to use female pronouns and wear dresses? The problem is that socially transitioning puts many children on a conveyor belt to medically transitioning. According to a 2022 study on the topic, a stunning 97.5 percent of young people who socially transitioned continued to identify as either trans or nonbinary several years later. Nearly 60 percent went on to medically transition via either puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones.

Proponents of gender-affirming care for young people suggest that these numbers are proof that young people know their gender identity and simply need it to be affirmed; when it is affirmed, they do not waver. But this idea falls apart when we consider that the mean child in the study socially transitioned when they were just six years old. It is possible that some of these children truly are transgender. Much more likely is that, when a slew of authority figures validate a young child’s sense of identity, these authority figures reify that sense of identity. This is true even if the identity in question is not something that the child would ever have chosen had they not been prodded into it by well-meaning authority figures.

The fragile and unsteady formation of a child’s sense of identity has long been studied by psychologists. If authority figures tell a child that he or she is worthless or defective, then many children will believe that even if it is not true. If authority figures tell a child that they are stupid, or bad at sports, or shouldn’t play piano, and if the authority figures hammer this message home for years from a young age, many children will grow to believe this about themselves.

Indeed, this helps explain the rapid rise of transgender-identifying youth. As professor of psychology Jean Twenge notes, the number of young people who identify as transgender has exploded in recent years.

Some of this explosion might have to do with the fact that people who identify as transgender feel safer coming out of the closet than they might have in previous decades. But the size of the surge suggests that a lot of this is socially mediated; that is, young people are being pressured by peers or by authority figures (including by the promise of unconditional acceptance) into adopting an identity that isn’t really theirs.

As social psychologist Jonathan Haidt puts it in “The Anxious Generation”:

“the fact that gender dysphoria now often appears in social clusters (such as a group of close friends), the fact that parents and those who transition back to their natal sex identify social media as a major source of information and encouragement, and the fact that gender dysphoria is now being diagnosed among many adolescents who showed no signs of it as children all indicate that social influence and sociogenic transmission may be at work as well.”

For many young children who are being encouraged to socially transition, the best and most loving act that a parent can take may indeed be to push back on this false sense of identity rather than reify it. There are times when parents really do know best.

When it comes to free speech, a good rule of thumb is this: the more weighty a matter is, the more essential that we be allowed to discuss it freely. The higher the stakes to vulnerable lives if we make the wrong decision, the more essential it is that everyone should have the freedom to share their perspective.

The reason is simple: free speech is a powerful vehicle for discovering the truth of a matter, because it allows everyone involved to bring their perspective and their knowledge to bear on the question. When we don’t allow all parties to speak freely, we increase the risk of making bad decisions because the blind spots and cognitive biases of the people who are allowed to speak do not get confronted. As John Milton wrote in “Areopagitica,” “Let her [Truth] and Falsehood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the worse in a free and open encounter?”

This bill threatens to chill speech on one of the most important questions that a parent will ever have to wrestle with. If a six-year-old boy wants to socially transition, then it is essential that his parents be free to discuss the matter frankly and honestly. They should bring up their concerns. Only when both parents are free to discuss these matters openly and honestly can they help the child to navigate this decision in a way that is most likely to be in the child’s long-term best interest.

If the Colorado bill were to become law, it would put a stop to those conversations. If a mother believes that affirming her six-year-old son’s decision to socially transition isn’t in his best interest, is she going to speak up about her concerns knowing that it could potentially cost her custody of her child? More likely, she’ll be tempted to keep her concerns and opinions to herself, in order to not take the risk. But that state-enforced silence won’t help her son.

It’s easy to see the noble intentions motivating the authors of the “Kelly Loving Act.” As one of the bill’s sponsors said, “This is a bill that will … send a message to trans people in Colorado that we believe in them, care for them, and love them, and we want them to live healthy, safe lives.” We should certainly all be respectful of adults who choose to transition their sex or gender, and to love and care for them as God’s cherished children.

It’s also essential that we care for young people struggling to find their identity in a tumultuous world. But we should remember that most parents know their children and love their children far better than a judge ever could. Perhaps the most caring thing we can do for young children right now is to empower parents to raise them as the parents see fit, without unnecessary and intrusive political oversight from state agents.

From the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

With markets euphoric over the US-China trade war truce, which in turn has made all economic data meaningless as all recent and upcoming data reports will have to be viewed on a pro forma basis, one which no longer reflect the post-truce world, one can discount the key macro events on deck this week, which are the CPI report on Tuesday, the retail sales report on Thursday, and the University of Michigan report on Friday. 

There are also several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech on the Fed’s framework review by Chair Powell on Thursday. Still, the market will need catalysts to kneejerk to, so let’s go over the week’s macro agenda.

Looking into the main US upcoming data in more detail, for US CPI tomorrow, DB expect the headline (+0.26% forecast vs. -0.05% previous) number to be slightly below that of core (+0.29% vs. +0.06%) with consensus for both at 0.3%. Both DB and consensus expect the YoY rate to remain unchanged at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. One of the main reasons the economists are expecting a firm core goods print is due to strong gains in vehicle prices after robust new vehicle sales in recent months. The risk to this month though is that dealers refrained from price rises in April knowing that with tariffs coming they will have to raise them soon. So we know auto price rises are coming but it may not be April.

Indeed, as DB’s Jim Reid writes, April overall may be too early for tariff price rises to show up – especially now that tariffs with China have been pushed back – but the bank’s economists advise looking out for any early signs in some of the import-heavy categories such as apparel and household furnishings and supplies. 

In addition food prices could be another place to look for any early signs of the tariffs that went into place in February. The effects from the washing machine tariffs in early 2018 took about two months to start showing up in the CPI data.

For PPI on Thursday, DB and the consensus expect a 0.3% monthly print on headline and core but we’ll pay more attention to the components that feed into core PCE as usual. Retail sales on the same day will be the other big release of the week: here economists expect slight dips in auto sales and gasoline prices to weigh on headline (unch. vs. +1.5%) and ex-autos (+0.2% vs. +0.6%) sales. However they expect retail control (+0.4% vs. +0.4%), which feeds into GDP, to remain solid. The potential curveball is if consumers have front loaded purchases ahead of tariffs and we get strong data. 

Thursday is a busy day as Powell speaks and this will provide him with an opportunity to comment on the data if he’s sees anything meaningful within it. So one to watch especially given that Powell said last week that “we don’t know which way this is going to shake out”.

Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 12

• Data: US April federal budget balance, Japan March BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, April bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, Denmark April CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Kugler speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor and Mann speak
• Earnings: UniCredit, Petroleo Brasileiro

Tuesday May 13

• Data: US April CPI, NFIB small business optimism, UK March average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, April jobless claims change, Japan April M2, M3, Germany May Zew survey, March current account balance, Eurozone May Zew survey
• Central banks: BoJ’s summary of opinions from April meeting, ECB’s Escriva, Knot and Makhlouf speak, BoE’s Governor Bailey and Pill speak
• Earnings: Munich Re, Sea, JD.com, Bayer, Venture Global, On Holding

Wednesday May 14

• Data: Japan April PPI, Canada March building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller, Jefferson and Daly speak, ECB’s Nagel and Holzmann speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Tencent, Cisco, Sony, E.ON, Coreweave, RENK, Burberry

Thursday May 15

• Data: US April PPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, March business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK Q1 GDP, Japan April machine tool orders, Germany April wholesale price index, Italy March general government debt, Eurozone Q1 employment, March industrial production, Canada April housing starts, existing home sales, March manufacturing sales, Australia April labour report, Norway Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Chair Powell and Barr speak, ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson, Guindos and Villeroy speak, BoE’s Dhingra speaks
• Earnings: Walmart, Alibaba, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Mitsubishi UFJ, Deere, Applied Materials, National Grid, 3i Group, Engie, Take-Two, RWE, Cava

Friday May 16

• Data: US May University of Michigan survey, New York Fed services business activity, April building permits, housing starts, import and export price indices, March total net TIC flows, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilisation, Italy March trade balance, Eurozone March trade balance, Canada March international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, BoJ’s Nakamura speaks, ECB’s Lane speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
• Earnings: Cie Financiere Richemont
• Other: European Commission Spring Economic Forecasts

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday, the retail sales report on Thursday, and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech on the Fed’s framework review by Chair Powell on Thursday.

Monday, May 12

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 10:25 AM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium in Dublin. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 2, Kugler said, “Given the recent lack of progress on inflation, recent increases in inflation expectations, and upside risks associated with announced and prospective policy changes… I will support maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable.”

Tuesday, May 13

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, April (consensus 95.0, last 97.4)
• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Core CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.42%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.4%); Core CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.83%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.30% increase in April core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged on a rounded basis at 2.8%. Our forecast reflects a decline in used car prices (-0.5%) reflecting a decline in auction prices, a slight increase in new car prices (+0.1%) reflecting a decline in incentives, and a large increase in the car insurance category (+0.7%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We have penciled in moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as apparel, recreation, and communication) worth +0.06pp on core inflation. We expect the shelter components to decelerate on net after last month’s pick up (OER +0.28% vs. +0.40% in March; primary rent +0.29% vs. +0.33%) but expect a slight rebound in the lodging away from home component after last month’s sharp decline (+0.5%). The source data for the health insurance component is updated semiannually with the April and October reports. We expect this update to result in negative health insurance inflation over the next six months (we forecast -0.5% for April). We estimate a 0.31% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.3%) and energy (+0.4%) prices.

Wednesday, May 14

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 05:15 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on central bank research at an event in Rabat, Morocco. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 14, Waller said, “While I expect the inflationary effects of higher tariffs to be temporary, their effects on output and employment could be longer-lasting and an important factor in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy.” He also added, “If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC’s policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought.”
• 09:10 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will give a speech on the economic outlook at a virtual event. Speech text is expected. On April 3, Jefferson said, “In my view, there is no need to be in a hurry to make further policy rate adjustments. The current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.”
• 05:40 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat at the California Bankers Association’s 2025 Annual Conference & Directors Forum. Q&A is expected. On April 9, Daly said, “We’ve got policy in a very good place right now… with growth good and policy in a good place, we have the time and ability to tread slowly and carefully.”

Thursday, May 15

• 08:30 AM Empire state manufacturing survey, May (consensus -8.0, last -8.1)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +1.5%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); Core retail sales, April (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%): We estimate core retail sales expanded 0.4% in April (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a boost from consumers frontloading purchases ahead of tariffs. We estimate unchanged headline retail sales, reflecting lower auto sales and gasoline prices.
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.3%, last +0.1%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 19 (GS 223k, consensus 230k, last 228k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 12 (consensus 1,890k, last 1,879k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS -15.0, consensus -10.5, last -26.4)
• 08:40 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give remarks on the framework review at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference. The conference will focus on discussing the central bank’s monetary policy framework review. Speech text is expected. During the FOMC press conference on May 7, Powell said about twelve times that monetary policy is in a good place and the FOMC can wait and see how the economy evolves for now. He noted that both trade policy and its economic effects remain uncertain, and he reiterated that tariffs could put the two sides of the Fed’s dual mandate in tension. As a result, he said, “Right now there’s no need to make a choice and no real basis for doing so.”
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%); Manufacturing production, April (GS flat, consensus -0.2%, last +0.3%); Capacity utilization, April (GS 77.8%, consensus 77.9%, last 77.8%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.1%, as strong natural gas and electricity production outweigh weak oil and mining production. We estimate capacity utilization remained at 77.8%.
• 02:05 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will give opening remarks at the 2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium. Speech text is expected. On May 9, Barr said, “The size and scope of the recent tariff increases are without modern precedent, we don’t know their final form, and it is too soon to know how they will affect the economy.” He also added, “I am equally concerned that tariffs will lead to higher unemployment as the economy slows, thus, the [Fed] may be in a difficult position if we were to see both rising inflation and rising unemployment.”

Friday, May 16

• 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS +2.0%, consensus +3.1%, last -11.4%); Building permits, April preliminary (consensus -1.2%, last +0.5%)
• 08:30 AM Import price index, April (consensus -0.3%, last -0.1%)
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May preliminary (GS 53.2, consensus 53.0, last 52.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May preliminary (GS 4.4%, last 4.4%)

Source: DB, Goldman

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan which ended nearly a week of intense border fighting which included heavy cross-border shelling, aerial engagements, and drone warfare is holding into Monday. Washington, New Delhi, and Islamabad are celebrating.

Signs of normalcy and life are fast returning to both sites of the restive Line of Control (LOC) in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir regions, where the fighting took place. India’s aviation authority announced Monday that 32 airports in hard-impacted northern regions of the country have reopened.

Airports across Srinagar, Chandigarh, and Amritsar had been ordered closed, all commercial flights halted, since May 9th and the launch of India’s ‘Operation Sindoor’ – meant as retaliation for last month’s Pahalgam terror attack which left 26 mostly Indian tourists dead.

Both India and Pakistan had at one point imposed blanket suspensions of civilian aviation across broad swathes of their countries, and various international carriers had paused service to the warring countries, during what was the worst fighting in decades.

The ceasefire went into effect after Trump’s major Saturday morning announcement, which was around 5pm in India and Pakistan that “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.” He lauded the leaders of both countries for “using common sense and great intelligence.”

Still there were reports of some violations, but nothing major in terms of sustained shelling has come out of it:

Hours after the ceasefire was announced on Saturday, India accused Pakistan of violating it by shelling border regions. Residents across major towns in Kashmir were on their toes, once again, after drones reappeared in the skies.

One of the worst-affected places in Kashmir during these days is Uri, a picturesque town of pear orchards and walnut groves close to India’s contested border with Pakistan.

There are various regional reports saying that in many of these hardest-hit villages and towns along the border, people are actually returning to their homes, in a sign of optimism that the peace will hold. Some market headlines also point to optimism:

• INDIA’S NIFTY 50 INDEX JUMPS 3% AFTER CEASEFIRE WITH PAKISTAN
• PAKISTAN’S KSE-30 SURGES 9.2% ON INDIA TRUCE, IMF LOAN PAYOUT
• TRUMP: LEADERSHIP OF INDIA, PAKISTAN UNWAIVERING
  TRUMP PRAISES FULL, IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE BETWEEN INDIA, PAKISTAN
• Reuters: Indian stocks log best day in 4 years on border truce; Pakistan shares surge

Monday trading saw the Nifty50 close above 24,000; and BSE Sensex rallied 3,000 points to cross 82,400. Overall this constituted a sharp rally of nearly 4% in India’s benchmark indices.

To be expected, both sides are claiming a ‘win’ – however, India reportedly lost up to five jets in hostile encounters. Both sides have thanked Trump for his peace mediation efforts, meanwhile.

“We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role for peace in the region,” said Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Days prior to the ceasefire, Vice President J.D. Vance had explained to Fox News that Washington would not get involved militarily, but would use its diplomatic might: “What we can do is try to encourage these folks to de-escalate a little bit, but we’re not going to get involved in the middle of a war that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it,” he said.

Everyone is happy except for mainstream media, it seems…

In this conflict at least, Trump has fulfilled a campaign promise to essentially be a ‘peace’ president who negotiations the end to wars, and avoids starting them. This is certainly a diplomatic win as be departs for a Middle East tour (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE).

Meanwhile, Trump addresses India-Pakistan peace on Monday…

Trump on India-Pakistan conflict:

I said come on, we are going to do a lot of trade with you guys, let’s stop it. Let’s stop it. If you stop it we are doing trade, if you don’t we are not going to do any trade. pic.twitter.com/VsJ4AlVDHq

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 12, 2025

“Our top priority remains bringing an end to the fighting and an immediate ceasefire,” the State Department said Sunday concerning the war in Ukraine.

And yet the overnight exchanges of fire, especially drone attacks on a large scale, doesn’t suggest the warring sides are actually any closer to ceasefire, despite that over the weekend President Putin proposed negotiations in Istanbul on May 15, and Zelensky responded by saying he’s willing to fly to Turkey to meet with Putin “personally”.

“I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he ‘can’t’ make it. We are ready to talk, to end this war,” Zelensky stated on X Sunday. “Thursday. Türkiye. President Trump has expressed support. All the leaders support this.”

Ukraine’s Air Force said early Monday that Russia launched dozens of drones across Ukraine overnight. A statement detailed that at least 108 UAVs were sent, which included mostly Iranian-made Shahed drones. “An additional 30 enemy decoy drones were lost due to location failure, with no negative consequences,” it sated.

The military said it intercepted 60 of the Iranian suicide drones across the eastern, northern, southern, and central regions of the country – which suggests many still hit their targets.

Emergency authorities indicated that at least 22 people were injured the attacks, along with damage in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk and Zhytomyr regions.

Things had been relatively quiet since Friday, given Moscow’s unilaterally declared 72-hour ceasefire in observance of WW2 Victory Day events, which went off without incident. Ukraine had seemed to hold to the ceasefire at least by not sending large numbers of drones on Russia, as was the case last week in the days leading up to Friday.

Also, the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland were in Kiev Sunday for solidarity and talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. European leaders urged a show of support to Zelensky at a moment some 29 world leaders were in Moscow for the Red Square V-Day parade, including China’s Xi and Brazil’s Lula.

Ukraine and its backers, the United States among them, want an immediate 30-day ceasefire. President Trump is turning up the pressure and expressing frustration with the slowness of dialogue.

“President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday in Turkey to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH,” Trump wrote Sunday on his Truth Social platform.

He insisted that Putin and Zelensky should meet directly, even they prove not yet ready to reach any level of compromise. “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!” -Trump wrote.

Meanwhile, drones didn’t just go one way overnight, but Russian officials in southern border regions say Ukrainian forces launched multiple drone and missile attacks on Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, resulting in injuries to civilians and damaged property and infrstructure.

A missile hit the town of Rylsk in Kursk Region on Sunday, the region’s governor reported. “Two men suffered serious shrapnel wounds to the head and arms, as well as bone fractures – they are in critical condition. A woman received shrapnel wounds to the forearm and thigh, but her life is not in danger,” regional head Aleksandr Khinshtein has been quoted as describing. 

Additionally Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said of a Ukrainian drone assault, “One woman was injured when a first-person view (FPV) drone struck her moving car on the Krasny Oktyabr-Bessonovka road.”

As for Putin’s declared V-Day ceasefire, Moscow is still alleging that Ukraine broke it. “During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilaterally declared Victory Day truce from May 8 to May 11, Ukrainian forces attempted five cross-border incursions into Belgorod and Kursk regions, all of which failed, according to Russian officials,” Russian media writes.

It would be interesting to at least see what comes of the proposed direct Istanbul talks. President Putin is unlikely to go in person, despite the ‘challenge’ to do so from Zelensky, who is seeking to demonstrate to the White House that Kiev is ready and willing for peace. But we could at least see the two warring sides’ negotiating teams meet in Turkey, which would in and of itself be some level of progress. 

China and the U.S. moved to ease trade tensions early Monday, agreeing to a temporary 90-day reduction in reciprocal tariffs on each other’s goods, according to a joint statement released by both governments on X. The accord, viewed as a breakthrough in a multi-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies, helped spark a rally in global markets: S&P 500 futures rose 3%, while Nasdaq futures gained 4%. European markets also advanced, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. U.S. government bonds sold as investors rotated back into equities and other risk-sensitive assets. 

https://t.co/NXlayMvBWE

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 12, 2025

The joint statement said that the U.S. will reduce levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30% by Wednesday. 

Here’s a summary of the U.S. actions:

The United States will remove the additional tariffs it imposed on China on April 8 and April 9, 2025, but will retain all duties imposed on China prior to April 2, 2025, including Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, tariffs imposed in response to the fentanyl national emergency invoked pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Most Favored Nation tariffs.

• The United States will suspend its 34% reciprocal tariff imposed on April 2, 2025 for 90 days, but retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause.

• The 10% tariff continues to set a fair baseline that encourages domestic production, strengthens our supply chains and ensures that American trade policy supports American workers first, instead of undercutting them.

• By imposing reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is ensuring our trade policy works for the American economy, addresses our national emergency brought on by our growing and persistent trade deficit, and levels the playing field for American workers and producers.

• Unlike previous administrations, President Trump took a tough, uncompromising stance on China to protect American interests and stop unfair trade practices.

The breakthrough in the talks also led to China reducing its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%. 

Here’s a summary of the Chinese actions:

China will remove the retaliatory tariffs it announced since April 4, 2025, and will also suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.

• China will also suspend its initial 34% tariff on the United States it announced on April 4, 2025 for 90 days, but will retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause.

The joint statement indicated that Monday’s agreement would pave the way for further negotiations between senior officials. On the U.S. side, talks are being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China… 

After taking the aforementioned actions, the Parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations. The representative from the Chinese side for these discussions will be He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council, and the representatives from the U.S. side will be Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative. These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.

The White House wrote on X that these trade talks will address America’s trade imbalances:

• The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024—the largest with any trading partner.

• Today’s agreement works toward addressing these imbalances to deliver real, lasting benefits to American workers, famers, and businesses.

The talks also addressed the ongoing fentanyl crisis.

• The United States and China will take aggressive actions to stem the flow of fentanyl and other precursors from China to illicit drug producers in North America.

https://t.co/xHkmdojKE7

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 12, 2025

Shortly after the joint statement was released, Bessent, who led the American delegation at the talks, told reporters in Geneva that both sides have “substantially moved down the tariff levels” and “neither side wants a decoupling.” 

“We had a very robust and productive discussion on steps forward on fentanyl,” Bessent added, pointing out that those talks might lead to “purchasing agreements” by China.

.@SecScottBessent: “We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%.” pic.twitter.com/Jxdd11U83s

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 12, 2025

Commenting on markets, Benedicte Lowe, an equity and derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, told Bloomberg TV that “deescalation was much better than expected by the market” and “for the next couple of days I would expect a bullish environment in the global equity market.”

Last week, President Trump floated the “80% Tariff on China seems right!” trial balloon on Truth Social, noting that the final decision rests with Bessent.

“In our view, equity markets are returning to where they would have moved to if Liberation Day had not happened and Trump had just applied the 10% universal tariff,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. 

Scholtes noted, “Corporate fundamentals are healthy, first quarter results have substantially surprised on the upside, and there’s plenty of cash to be invested.”

“This deescalation is much more positive than anticipated (GSe: 54% U.S. on China tariffs and 34% China on U.S. tariffs) and the market is reacting as such. We are seeing a clear reversal in short USD positions as U.S. recession risks reduce (GSe was 45%!) and risk-on sentiment rises. DXY rallied over 1%, S&P futures surged 3%, 10y UST rose to 4.43%, gold tumbled ~3%,” Goldman analyst Yichin Tsai told clients. 

S&P 500 futures are up 3%, and Nasdaq futures are up 4%. European stocks are in the green. 

The move toward lower tariffs and easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies follows Sunday’s negotiations, during which both sides reported making “substantial progress.”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Border Patrol posted footage of a massive processing facility on the southern border that has been dismantled, but just a few months ago was heaving with thousands of illegal aliens, proving conclusively that the flow could have been stopped at any time.

The videos show the huge area in Texas previously manned by the Del Rio sector teeming with activity in December 2023, then sitting virtually unused in February 2025, before being taken down and removed earlier this month, leaving just an empty field.

Border Patrol just posted this epic before vs after video pic.twitter.com/EcQHbxvBEF

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) May 9, 2025

Are we supposed to believe that this couldn’t have also been actioned in the past four years?

All it took was a real POTUS https://t.co/wZgKmzdRju

— Joseph DeSouza (@Joe_DeSouza) May 9, 2025

It proves beyond a shadow of a doubt what whoever was really running the country under Biden was really up to.

Visual evidence of how the Marxist left Democrats hate the US, you, and your children’s future. https://t.co/nOSx7K85dL

— John Doe by choice (@Mulvasbane) May 9, 2025

And they lied about not being able to stop it.

Proof that @JoeBiden @KamalaHarris @HouseDemocrats & @SenateDems were LYING for 4 years about needing legislation to stop illegal border crossings. All it took was a @POTUS willing to do it.

— 🇺🇸 #IAmTheNRA Rosenblum (@StevenRosenblum) May 9, 2025

There are people, no matter if they were figureheads and didn’t hold real authority, who should be held accountable and punished accordingly.

So, Mayorkas vs Noem no comparison.

When will Mayorkas be indicted https://t.co/6aw9AItdYx

— Rita Real (@ritareal) May 9, 2025

Since Trump took office encounters of illegals at the U.S.-Mexico border have significantly decreased. Data indicates that in February 2025, Border Patrol arrested 8,300 migrants, the lowest monthly level since 2000. In March 2025, encounters dropped further to 7,000, the fewest since monthly records began in 2000.

In contrast, the peak of migrant encounters under President Joe Biden occurred in December 2023, with approximately 370,000 encounters, or about 12,000 per day.

This reflects a roughly 95% reduction in daily encounters under Trump’s initial months compared to Biden’s peak.

Additionally, “gotaways” (migrants not apprehended) have reportedly decreased significantly under Trump, with a daily average of 77 over a 21-day period in early 2025, compared to 1,837 daily under Biden in fiscal year 2023.

*  *  *

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How well are Americans managing their money, and how does it vary between the states?

This financial literacy map, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, attempts to answer both questions using 2025 data from WalletHub, a personal finance services company.

They ranked and scored states on three main benchmarks: financial education, financial planning (or consumer habits), and how Wallethub’s own users performed on their financial literacy survey.

ℹ️ These benchmarks are further subdivided into 17 metrics (credit score, savings, personal finance courses, etc.) and are weighted differently. Please read the source’s methodology section for a full breakdown.

The Most Financially Savvy U.S. State

Minnesota is the most financially literate U.S. state with 73 points, according to WalletHub’s latest analysis.

Here’s some sub indicators where Minnesota outperformed the rest of the country.

• High-schoolers must take at least one personal finance program.
• Only 15% of the surveyed Minnesotans spent more than they made—the lowest across all states.
• Highest median credit score in the country (751).

And here’s how each state scores out of 100. Figures are rounded.

Meanwhile, Arkansas tested the worst, with 53 points. Its score is impacted by having the second-worst performance on WalletHub’s financial literacy survey.

And here’s each state’s rank within the three main benchmarks.

There’s some further insights to explain some noticeable geographic trends.

• Colorado and Nebraska also require personal finance education in high school.
• Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arkansas have the lowest share of adults with emergency cash.
• A higher share of Southern state residents borrow from non-bank lenders, affecting their financial planning score.

The Overlooked Part of Financial Literacy: Managing Debt

While investing in the markets is all the rage—particularly with the rise of no-fee platforms—WalletHub’s benchmarks prioritize an often overlooked part of money management: debt.

America’s credit card debt collectively crossed $1 trillion in 2023, and it’s only been growing since.

On average, American households have about $5,000 in outstanding credit card balances, which can take anywhere between one to two years to pay off depending on monthly incomes.

Of course, managing expenditures to avoid or reduce debt has been particularly difficult in the multiple years of post-pandemic inflation.

Need more money management insights about the United States? Check out: America’s Average Bank Account Balance, by State for a quick overview.

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Renowned attorney Larry Klayman predicted on USAWatchdog.com that there would be full-blown, legal civil war happening in the court system.  He also predicted that violence from the “rabid left” would not only increase but explode.  

Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch and now Freedom Watch USA, says there are now more than 233 federal court cases trying to stop or delay President Trump and his Administration.  

Klayman is here to update us on what is going on with the struggle America is having with the Deep State trying desperately to hold on to power.  Let’s start with Joe Biden’s appearance last week on ABC’s “The View,” where he looked confused and incompetent.  Can all of Biden’s last-minute pardons of criminals and J6 members who destroyed evidence be enforced or are they null and void as President Trump has declared?  Klayman says,

“They are null and void and so is every other thing that was allegedly signed by him (Biden).  He couldn’t even remember what he signed. . . . This is more than a scandal.  It’s the worst scandal ever.  Let me tell you something, Biden has not been abused as an elderly person.  He abused the American people, and it’s much more than abuse.  Biden committed treason.”

What about suspending “habeas corpus” as President Trump is thinking about doing to more quickly deport millions of illegal aliens? 

Klayman says,

“He can do that in dire times, times of war.  We are, in effect, in a war.  We had drug traffickers, human traffickers, sex traffickers and terrorists running across our border in mass, over 10 million in the Biden Administration alone and many before that.  So, yes, it’s a war-time situation, and he (President Trump) can suspend it. . . .Just get them the heck out of here.  They are here illegally.  They have no right to be here.  The President should just ignore these edicts by these San Francisco judges and other judges . . . and do what he needs to do, and they can’t do anything.  

You know the judiciary has no ability to enforce any ruling.  It’s only the Executive Branch, President Trump’s branch that he sit’s over, can enforce the rule of law.  

This President has been sued thus far . . . in places like San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, Portland and other places where they know they are going to get a Leftist judge.  Federal judges are supposed to be assigned randomly. 

It’s like Wheel of Fortune, but that really does not happen. . . . They actually steer these cases. . . . We need to prosecute these judges and set up the Department of Judicial and Legal Accountability and work with President Trump.  

I hope he will appoint me to head that with others that will come on board because we need some strong leadership right now because he’s sinking.  He (Trump) has been enjoined 70% to 80% of the time in every Executive Order that he has issued.  

This last one said Trump has no control over his departments anymore.  There was a temporary restraining order that says you can’t cut workforce; you can’t do anything.”

Why all the attacks on President Trump?  Klayman says

“They are attacking him because they hate him. . . . they are attacking him, and it’s all orchestrated.  Washington is one giant, excuse the French, circle jerk.  It’s a club.”

Larry Klayman is representing conservative reporter Laura Loomer against Bill Maher and HBO. 

They are being sued by Loomer for falsely claiming she slept with President Trump.  Klayman just deposed Maher and wants to release the video deposition.   Maher’s lawyers have so far blocked that.  Klayman says, “They are fighting tooth and nail to keep the video of Bill Maher secret so it can never be seen...”

“Look at the hypocrisy.  Laura Loomer gets defamed by Bill Maher, and the court has already denied a motion to dismiss . . . She gets smeared all over the world, defamed that she had sex with the President behind the back of Melania. . . . Loomer’s reputation gets harmed, and this harms her financially . . . You can smear a woman and . . . . If President Clinton can have his deposition released, who is Bill Maher that he should be protected?  Maher gave money to Kamela Harris as a political candidate.  That’s why Maher went after Loomer, because she was a way to get to Trump.”

In closing, Klayman has a warning:

“Pro Hamas demonstrators are busting up campuses threatening Jews and Christians, we see that.  We see Hakeem Jefferies the Minority Leader in the House, and Ilhan Omar, Rashita Tlaib, AOC and Bernie Sanders whipping up violence along with Jasmine Crockett, and they are calling for violence.”

Are we headed for a civil war?  

Klaman says, “I believe we are.”

There is more in the 56-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter, Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org, as he rolls out a new organization to help Trump and the DOJ with his newly created Department of Judicial and Legal Accountability (DOLA) for 5.10.25.

To donate to FreedomWatchUSA.org so Larry Klayman can hire more attorneys to fight for the rights of all Americans being attacked by tyrannical dark forces on the Left, click here.

In the Trump administration’s latest blow to the wokes, the Pentagon on Friday instructed military leaders to conduct a sweeping review of all library materials across bases and academies, with orders to remove any books promoting what the Department of Defense deemed “divisive concepts and gender ideology.”

According to internal memos reviewed by the Associated Press, commanders were told to “promptly identify” and withdraw any material that conflicts with the military’s core mission, with a deadline of May 21 to complete the review. The directive comes amid a broader reorientation of the military’s cultural and educational standards under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a prominent critic of DEI programming.

In a separate memo issued the same day, the Pentagon informed the nation’s military academies – including West Point and the U.S. Naval Academy – that race, ethnicity, and sex should no longer factor into admissions decisions. Instead, selections must be based solely on merit, though the department left room for “unique athletic talent” to be considered.

The moves follow a January pledge by Secretary Hegseth to “purge DEI from the Pentagon,” arguing that the emphasis on diversity undermines military readiness. “Our diversity is our strength,” he said at the time, “is the single dumbest phrase in military history.”

As part of the book review, libraries are instructed to flag materials using search terms such as “affirmative action,” “anti-racism,” “critical race theory,” and “white privilege.” Already, the Naval Academy has removed nearly 400 titles, including Maya Angelou’s I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings, novels by Palestinian American author Etaf Rum, and various academic texts on race and gender.

To coordinate the ongoing review, the Pentagon is establishing a temporary “academic libraries committee” to assist other military colleges and institutions in identifying and removing similar materials.

The book bans extend beyond college libraries to K–12 schools on U.S. military bases worldwide. The Department of Defense Education Activity (DoDEA), which oversees these schools, has issued a list of prohibited children’s books, many of which include LGBTQ+ themes or explore racial identity.

Since the beginning of 2025, the federal government has seen what experts describe as a wholesale dismantling of DEI-related roles and programs. While no formal count has been released, estimates suggest that hundreds – if not thousands – of DEI personnel across federal agencies have been dismissed or reassigned.

The Pentagon’s directives are the latest in a series of actions that signal the Trump administration’s broader goal of reshaping federal institutions around “mission-first” principles, removing considerations of identity from official policy and practice.