Authored by Darren Taylor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

JOHANNESBURG—Diplomats and officials from several leading African economies say the United States and China are pressuring them to make an “impossible choice,” as the superpowers fight a trade war that threatens to erode weak economies further.

Senior members of African governments, including those of South Africa, Egypt, Kenya and Nigeria, said Beijing has warned them it will retaliate against countries that sign trade agreements with the United States “at China’s expense.”

U.S. trade partners, including many from Africa, are currently negotiating with President Donald Trump’s administration following his global tariff announcement on April 2.

They’re trying to work out deals that could see the tariffs scrapped or lowered, depending on what they’re able to offer the White House.

Trump imposed some of the highest duties on African imports, ranging in some cases between 30 and 50 percent, arguing these are necessary to correct trade imbalances that take advantage of the United States.

He said the reciprocal tariffs will increase America’s competitive edge, protect its sovereignty, and strengthen its national and economic security.

But high taxes on their exports to the United States will cut billions of dollars from budgets already strained by high debt, inflation, the cost of industrializing, and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, said African nations.

Countries like Lesotho, hit with a tariff of 50 percent on its exports to the United States, which it said could destroy its textile industry, and South Africa (31 percent), have welcomed the chance to talk with the United States.

“But we know that if we do anything that is seen as appeasing Trump, it won’t go down well back east,” a government official in Pretoria told The Epoch Times, speaking anonymously because he didn’t have permission to speak with the media.

“We’re playing a delicate game here,” he said. “Because of Trump’s tariffs and the economic hardship they’re going to cause us, we’re trying to form new trade partnerships, but we know China is not going to be happy with some of those partnerships, especially if we move economically closer to their biggest enemy. Part of our strategy is to do even more trade with China, but then Trump is going to see that as a betrayal. We cannot win. It’s an impossible choice.”

Kenyan and Nigerian diplomats, who requested anonymity for the same reason, said Chinese officials had warned their governments not to give in to what Beijing has described as “bullying” by the Trump administration.

The Nigerian envoy told The Epoch Times that “the Chinese made it clear they expect Africans to be on their side” in this trade war.

“They said their government will strike back against anyone that signs anything with the United States that hurts [Beijing],” the Nigerian official said.

China’s Ministry of Commerce recently issued a statement in a vein similar to the comments made by the African officials.

“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the ministry said. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner.”

Ina Gouws, political scientist at the University of Free State in South Africa, told The Epoch Times that China’s threat to retaliate has brought African countries to a “crossroads.”

“We now have the world’s two biggest economic powers involving the rest of the world, and particularly Africa, where China has held sway for decades, in their spectacular trade war,” she said. “What does Africa now do? It can’t please two masters. African countries cannot afford to lose trade with either America or China. They have always been adamant that they need trade with both. But Trump and [Chinese leader] Xi [Jinping] have forced them into a corner, and there seems to be no good way out of this for Africa.”

Via VigilantFox.com,

Victor Davis Hanson opened with a warning… and it wasn’t subtle…

This week, Germany’s only major right-wing opposition party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), was officially labeled an “extremist” group by the country’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV.

The designation sent shockwaves through the political landscape.

AfD immediately challenged it in court, prompting the agency to suspend enforcement while litigation proceeds.

But the damage, Hanson said, has already been done.

This move, he argued, wasn’t about public safety—it was about political control.

“Recently, the German government announced that it is going to label or maybe relabel the Alternative for Deutschland,” Hanson explained.

“The conservative party that has an antithetical agenda both to the German government of both liberal and conservative factions, but also to the EU in general.”

He said the classification ensures AfD will remain on the outside of political power, regardless of how many people support them.

“It will cement this aura that no government under their parliamentary democracy system will ask them to join to form a majority government,” Hanson said.

“So the process of ostracism and demonization of this party continues.”

And for what? The real issue, he said, is that AfD simply offers a different vision.

“The party is advocating an alternative for the way that Germany is going.”

Victor Davis Hanson opened with a warning—and it wasn’t subtle.

This week, Germany’s only major right-wing opposition party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), was officially labeled an “extremist” group by the country’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV.

The designation sent… pic.twitter.com/2woennAMK5

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2025

So where is Germany going?

Hanson painted a bleak picture—of economic decline, energy failure, and political denial.

“If you look at what has become of Germany,” he said, “it has had two years of essentially no growth or negative growth.”

He noted the country finally reached its long-delayed NATO defense spending goal, pledging 2% of GDP—something it was supposed to do back in 2014.

But the milestone felt more like a bare-minimum box-check than a serious turning point.

“It just barely did it,” Hanson said.

Meanwhile, Germany has doubled down on green energy while dismantling its nuclear infrastructure, despite the country’s climate not being suited for solar reliance.

The results have been catastrophic.

German electricity costs are now roughly four times higher than those in the United States.

And that’s not just hitting households—it’s pushing away manufacturers and investors who can no longer justify doing business in the country.

“You can see what that’s going to do to German investment,” Hanson warned.

So where is Germany going?

Hanson painted a bleak picture—of economic decline, energy failure, and political denial.

“If you look at what has become of Germany,” he said, “it has had two years of essentially no growth or negative growth.”

He noted the country finally reached… pic.twitter.com/2Wgn43UB28

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2025

The problems aren’t limited to energy and economics.

Hanson pointed to a deeper crisis—one that strikes at the heart of Germany’s identity.

Open borders and mass migration, largely from the Middle East, has dramatically reshaped the population.

And according to Hanson, the consequences are both cultural and existential.

He estimated that 16 to 18 percent of Germany’s population wasn’t born in the country and has not assimilated.

“These are refugees—or I don’t think they’re refugees,” he said.

“They’re illegal immigrants from the volatile Middle East. Most of them are Muslim. Most of them do not have an intention of assimilating, intermarrying, and integrating fully in German society.”

The government’s refusal to address this, he said, has allowed a demographic transformation to unfold without public debate or accountability.

And that’s a far cry from the Germany that once held Europe together.

“For years, Germany was the powerhouse, the cohesive economic power that kept the EU together,” Hanson recalled. “It’s very tragic.”

Even the German military—a former pillar of NATO—is now little more than a shell.

“During the Cold War, it fielded one of the best NATO armies… well over 400,000 troops,” he said.

“It’s almost literally disarmed.”

The problems aren’t limited to energy and economics.

Hanson pointed to a deeper crisis—one that strikes at the heart of Germany’s identity.

Open borders and mass migration, largely from the Middle East, has dramatically reshaped the population.

And according to Hanson, the… pic.twitter.com/6hEqyIjLkQ

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2025

In a functioning democracy, Hanson argued, this kind of failure would trigger a national reckoning.

There would be debate. Conflict. Reform. Politicians and citizens would argue over energy, borders, military policy, and economic growth. They’d hash it out—then find consensus.

Germany would close its borders. Demand full assimilation. Return to reliable energy. And reassert itself on the global stage.

That’s what you’d expect in a healthy system.

But instead of debating those solutions, the one party calling for them is silenced.

“They would do all of that,” Hanson said. “But instead, when one party is advocating much of what I just talked about, they demonize it because it’s out of the norm.”

Then came the most chilling line of all:

“And the norm, unfortunately in Germany today, is national suicide.”

For Hanson, this isn’t just a German issue.

The collapse of a once-great Western democracy—economically, militarily, and culturally—will have ripple effects far beyond Europe.

“Unfortunately, this is not going to end well for Germany,” he concluded.

“And it’s not going to end well for us. We need a powerful, friendly Germany and we wish it well.”

“But the reaction to needed reform—economic, political, social, cultural, military, diplomatic—is not to essentially ban a political party’s freedom of expression. That shows weakness and fear rather than confidence in the future.”

In a functioning democracy, Hanson argued, this kind of failure would trigger a national reckoning.

There would be debate. Conflict. Reform. Politicians and citizens would argue over energy, borders, military policy, and economic growth. They’d hash it out—then find consensus.… pic.twitter.com/uBQDfbMmzd

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2025

Watch the full episode of @DailySignal with Victor Davis Hanson here: https://t.co/7bYJxfMn51

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2025

It was about one month ago, when as stocks tumbled, economists rushed to catch down to the sliding market by doing what they do best: chasing prices (in this case lower) by slashing their economic forecasts (most notably Goldman Sachs) a move which we mocked at the time, and correctly predicted it would be about a month before these same economists made an “unrecession” their base case once stocks rebounded.

Will be so slightly awkward when all the banks who made a recession their base case this week, make an unrecession their base case in 1 month.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2025

It took less than a month for this forecast to come true, and now that stocks have erased all of their post Liberation Day losses, one of the most closely followed people on Wall Street, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius, said on CNBC on May 2 – just weeks after declaring that a recession was his base case for 90 minutes – that “The most recent information is certainly consistent with the economy not going through a recession right now”. 

Of course, the concurrent surge in the Atlanta Fed real-time GDP tracker from -3% (which was dead wrong to where Q1 GDP actually printed) to +2.4% in Q2, only cemented a non-recession base case…

Regional Fed GDP tracking update pic.twitter.com/02r2VVLoXX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2025

… because the technical definition of a recession – two consecutive negative quarters – meant that with Q2 GDP set to print well in the green, the earliest the US could be declared to be in an official recession was some time in early 2026 when the Q4 2025 GDP number would come out.

This was devastating to the liberal wing of the economic profession, not to mention the mainstream media, all of whom had decided that a Trump recession was imminent, and so they had to pivot to something else that would trigger a daily doom and gloom narrative.

That something was the hypothesis that with trade war between the US and China raging, it was only a matter of time before west coast ports were empty, as no Chinese containerships would come to the US, and the result would be a covid-like panic scramble for products (remember the legendary toilet paper runs) amid a historic inventory destocking.

It was as if the media turned on a dime, and with the “looming recession” narrative suddenly left in the dust, it was instead replaced with story after story about the looming port crisis that would, gasp, result in covid-like empty shelves everywhere across America!

“Trump’s tariffs hit the West’s busiest port – with traffic down by nearly a third” blasted Sky News, “Why U.S. Ports Are Emptying Out Before Tariffs Hit Harder” asked rhetorically Inc, magazine. “Empty Store Shelves Might Be Coming Sooner Than You Think” cried Bloomberg’s unerringly liberal talking heads and Reuters, never one to miss an opportunity to amplify an anti-Trump narrative, no matter how credible, echoed “Shipping volume will plummet 35% next week, LA port official says in CNBC interview.”

You get the picture. 

But that was just the beginning, because the liberal media was only just starting its fearmongering campaign to get Americans to panic and to rush out and start stockpiling toilet paper once again. In other words, the “independent press” was hoping to cause the very catastrophic outcome it was “warning” about.

Nowhere was this more evident than on MSNBC where anchor and former Deutsche Bank bond salesman, Stephanie Ruhle, no longer an expert intimately familiar with Under Armor (and especially its CEO), but now a full-blown trade guru, declared that “Donald Trump has been told look at the cargo ships coming in to Seattle, the port of Los Angeles, pick the port. Those ports are getting fewer and fewer ships with less and less cargo. And unless he turns this around, three weeks from now, you walk into a store and we’re going to have a covid-like supply chain crisis, and Trump is looking for an exit.”

“Unless he turns this around, three weeks from now, you walk into a store and we’re going to have a covid-like supply chain crisis, and Trump is looking for an exit” — here’s the @SRuhle commentary that triggered a Trump Truth Social meltdown pic.twitter.com/hzmP9uGTqu

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 9, 2025

But, as always happens, it was CNN that finally took this “broken telephone” narrative to its absurd conclusion, when the media outlet that has become the butt of all propaganda jokes declared that “Zero ships from China are bound for California’s top ports. Officials haven’t seen that since the pandemic.”

… an article written by CNN’s Business and Politics correspondent, Vanessa Yurkevich, who like MSNBC’s Ruhle above, is now a full-blown expert on naval commerce and logistics as a quick scan of her latest articles reveals.

So up until this point we had stayed away from this idiotic discussion, which merely demonstrated how little understanding so-called experts actually have of a nuanced and complicated topic as trade and global commerce.

However, CNN’s idiocy was the last straw.

But before we go there, a quick look at what has been really taking place.

First, regarding the claim that west coast ports have seen a sharp drop in inbound traffic, there certainly has been a modest decline in February and March inbound traffic, but a decline from a near-record print in January, which in turn was the result of inventory restocking ahead of what most retailers knew would be a trade war. After all, Trump had made it clear about a year ago that he had every intention of restarting trade war with the world, and especially China, and only someone watching CNN would be surprised by the recent sharp spike in tariffs, a move which incidentally was never meant to be permanent but was a strategy meant to inflict max pain and get trading partners to the negotiating table. In any case, the total inbound traffic to California ports shown below is hardly the apocalypse the liberal media has been making it out to be (and even Reuters discusses this in “Near-record US container import streak expected to snap in May due to tariffs“).

Then, addressing the topic of imminent product shortages, this was another fake news narrative meant to spark panic and chaos, and resulting in just the outcome the media was “warning” about. Because if it hurts Trump, it’s great for MSNBC and CNN… and of course China, which begs the question: just how much “ad dollars” and/or sponsorship have these media outlets received from Beijing and Chinese companies in recent months. As the following charts from Deutsche Bank demonstrate clearly, what has been taking place in recent months – and why we are now seeing the reverse – is record prebuying and excess imports…

… which according to Deutsche Bank has led to precisely the opposite outcome than the one MSNBC and CNN have been blasting: there is excess inventory in the supply channel, enough in fact to last weeks if not months, assuming a full-blown collapse in global trade, which of course would never happen absent a covid-like shock.

Additionally, if and when retailers end up liquidating these billions in excess inventories they have accumulated just for this contingency, the outcome would be wildly deflationary, and hardly the inflationary shock so many “experts” predict (that’s the topic of another post, and we’ll get to it eventually).

Going back to the media’s favorite topic of dropping cargoes from China, it wasn’t just us that countered the popular narrative: so did Standard Chartered’s Steve Englander who wrote last week that “the lurid headlines on the drop in cargoes from China may be misleading.” That’s because as we noted above, the volume of laden cargo now being shipped from China to the US is down almost 50% versus mid-April 2025, but the mid-April level was very high, and while you will never hear this on CNN, the current level is about on a par with much of 2023. In fact, Englander said that “the current pace as the low end of normal over the last couple of years.” Again, hardly the apocalypse Kevin Plank’s favorite media body (we use the term loosely) portrays it to be.

There’s more: another thing you would never hear on MSNBC or CNN is that if the early-May pace of shipping to the US is maintained though end-June, the cumulative amount shipped in H1-2025 would be 18% higher than in H1-2023 and only 5% lower than in H1-2024. So far this year, the tonnage shipped to the US is 40% higher than in 2023 and 9% higher than in 2024. Indeed, as noted above, and as Englander observes, “US importers may have an inventory buffer until tariffs are negotiated downwards.”

Taking a step back, if only for the benefit of our CNN and MSNBC readers, the big picture is one that even if the US were to lose all Chinese imports – an outcome which nobody anticipates as it would destroy China’s economy as Reuters admitted last week – the outcome to the US would hardly be devastating. Yes, prices would rise, but overall the US would be able to handle it. Here, again, is Englander explaining why:

US imports from China are about 1.6% of US GDP in value terms. If inbound cargo stays at early-May levels, then H2-2025 imports will be 85% of 2023 levels (in volume terms) and 67% of 2024 levels. So the import volume shock would be 0.25% of GDP relative to 2023 and 0.5% relative to 2024. And keep in mind that there may be substitution from elsewhere. There may be temporary delays as US importers figure out the practicalities of dealing with the new tariffs, and shipping may be down temporarily because importers stocked up ahead of tariff implementation.

There is little precedent for this kind of tariff shock, but our judgement is that the US economy can handle it. We agree that disruption is likely from tariffs and that any benefits are uncertain, but we don’t think that the US economy will fall off a precipice because of a shock of this magnitude.

Remarkably, none of the so-called experts predicting doom and gloom in recent days spent even a minute to consider this eventuality. Which is also why the left’s attempt to spark widespread panic by focusing on Chinese imports had largely been a dud… and why it forced the media to escalate its claims to ever more ludicrous proportions, until we got the CNN story that there were “zero ships from China are bound for California’s top ports.”

And this is where we drew the line because it takes about a 10 second google search on any of the marine tracking websites such as Marine Traffic to find out this is total bullshit. And the fact that CNN didn’t even consider that not all of its readers are absolute idiots who would accept its lies with zero pushback, is what was most remarkable.

Below is a chart from Bloomberg showing all the Dry Cargo/Container ships that have recently left China, and are currently in the water, headed for Wast Coast ports.

According to Bloomberg, there are no less than 52 cargo ships currently sailing from China to California and the West Coast, with the full list shown below.

It goes without saying that 52 is quite different from the zero ships headed to the US, as CNN claims, and to put that number in context, here is what the average number of ships heading across from China to the US has been in 2025:

• January 59 ships
• February 56
• March 55
• April 55

And now May is 52. So that drop – from 55 to 52 – is supposed to be the looming covid-like apocalypse that the mainstream propaganda media is urging Americans to run to their local Walmart and stock up on several years worth of toilet paper?

But it gets worse for CNN, because while we can understand if they don’t have access to Bloomberg, or even google as a result of recent cuts in USAID funding, they could have just gone to the Port of Los Angeles website to look at the public Port Optimizer data which shows that contrary to fake narratives of collapsing global trade, the import volumes for the week of May 18-24 are up 19% from the previous week and up a whopping 56% from a year ago.

And another way of showing it: here is the total number of container ships sailing from China to the US (in TEUs). The number on May 11 is higher than where it was in 2024 and the same as May 2023. But you won’t hear any of that on CNN.

Instead, this is what you will hear on CNN:

“On Friday morning, West Coast port officials told CNN about a startling sight: Not a single cargo vessel had left China with goods for the two major West Coast ports in the past 12 hours. That hasn’t happened since the pandemic.”

Only this attempt to spark panic (while evoking the covid pandemic for obvious reasons) is also dead wrong: first, consider that there are currently 52 ships transiting the Pacific from China to SoCal, in line with historic numbers: the trip takes 20 days which means 2.6 ships sailing each day or one ship every 9 to 10 hours. So a 12 hour period is not unusual. And, as Sal Mercogliano points out, while no ships may have set sail for California on Friday, a quick look at Marine Traffic shows that three ships – Cosco Africa, Ever Safety and Ever Mild – are all leaving China for SoCal this weekend. So much for that “startling sight.”

6/The story said 41 ships were scheduled to sail, but on Friday it was zero. This does not mean the 41 are not sailing. A quick look @MarineTraffic finds COSCO AFRICA, EVER SAFETY and EVER MILD all leaving for SoCal this weekend. pic.twitter.com/t35J2I8XgL

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) May 10, 2025

We could continue but you – unlike CNN – get the picture: transpacific trade may have slowed down, but it is nowhere near the full ground stop observed for a few weeks during covid, not even remotely close.

Meanwhile, the entire discussion about empty ports and empty shelves is completely moot because as Reuters reported even before the news of this weekend’s US-China trade talks breakthrough hit, “China-based shipping agents have resumed buying container space for goods headed for the United States after a series of U.S. tariff-induced cancellations, as Beijing and Washington head for trade talks in Switzerland.”

And here is Reuters confirming what we said several days ago: “Since late April, however, traders have stepped up buying of shipping capacity, locking in space from mid-May, according to two China-based executives with freight forwarding firms.” 

Or precisely what we said a week ago.

Ships sailing from China to US hits 2 week high. But Long Beach was supposed to be a ghost port pic.twitter.com/T2Jdi8eJx1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 7, 2025

And remarkably, and contrary to anything you may hear on CNN or MSNBC, shipping from China to the US is actually set for another surge! According to Dominic Desmarais, chief solutions officer at Liya Solutions which connects small and medium-sized companies with suppliers in China making everything from furniture to titanium products, prices could go up by $500 per container after May 15 as shipping activity recovers. 

So much for CNN’s fake news.

We’ll leave readers with another far more critical discussion topic, namely whether tariffs lead to inflation, something about which we will have more to say in the coming days since this has become a focal point of much economic debate in recent months, not just in the political arena but also inside the Fed. 

And while Fed Chair Powell appears to be very “confused” once again, claiming that tariffs are inflationary with the same erroneous conviction he previously argued “inflation was transitory” – we will instead point you to the recent work of Javier Bianchi, senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who thinks tariffs are not just a negative supply shock, but also a negative demand shock, and argues that the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs – which lead not to inflation but threaten recession – is to cut rates. For much more on this critical issue read “Under a stiff tariff, boosting the economy takes priority over inflation for a central bank“, something we are 100% certain neither CNN or MSNBC will ever do.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Opinions are mixed about who came out on top in the latest Indo-Pak conflict, but one thing is for certain, and it’s that India’s new doctrine is the lasting takeaway. 

According to reports, India will regard all future acts of terrorism as acts of war by Pakistan, which will result in cross-border strikes. 

That might not deter Pakistan, whose military leadership relies on the unresolved Kashmir Conflict to legitimize its outsized influence, but it could still make them think twice about orchestrating future attacks.

Moreover, the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended despite the fragile ceasefire/”understanding” between them, which collectively contributes to the new reality in South Asia. Reports also suggest that it was Pakistan, not India, which asked the US to diplomatically intervene in the latest conflict. About that, India denied that any mediation took place despite the US’ claims, but the US probably passed along messages from Pakistan to India on Islamabad’s behalf during talks between their officials.

CNN claimed that Vance called Modi after receiving “alarming intelligence”, which hints that Pakistan told the US that it might use of nuclear weapons in desperation, likely due to India bombing multiple bases across the country. If that’s indeed what happened, then it would imply that Pakistan believed that was losing, thus lending credence to perceptions that India got the best of it. After all, the aforesaid strikes weren’t intercepted, which shows that India achieved escalatory dominance over Pakistan.

Although some Pakistani drones and missiles hit targets inside of India, Russia’s S-400s were praised by national media for neutralizing many of the incoming attacks. Likewise, the jointly produced BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles were used in India’s successful attacks against Pakistani bases, thus proving that Russian military equipment is truly some of the best in the world. By contrast, Pakistan’s mostly Chinese equipment fell short of some observers’ lofty expectations, which reflects negatively on both.

Nevertheless, many in the Alt-Media Community – including some top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” – insist that Pakistan defeated India, though there are reasons to suspect that they don’t actually believe this but are driven by ulterior motives in claiming otherwise. Most of these same figures are known for their support of Palestine and/or China, and given that India is close to Israel and at odds with China, supporting Pakistan is “ideologically consistent” with their views and precludes accusations of hypocrisy.

No matter how reliable their takes on Ukraine, Palestine, and whatever else might be, their views on the latest Indo-Pak conflict should therefore be taken with lots of salt. This is important to keep in mind since Putin and Modi “emphasised the need to uncompromisingly fight terrorism in all its forms” during their call last week, which isn’t reflected by these top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” who present themselves as interpreters of Russian foreign policy. 

Their support of Pakistan over India contradicts Russian interests.

All told, while opinions are mixed about who came out on top in the latest Indo-Pak conflict, India arguably won seeing as how it punished Pakistan for the Pahalgam terrorist attack by bombing multiple bases, the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended, and a new military doctrine has entered into effect. Pakistan achieved no comparable outcomes despite its supporters’ claims. Even though it lost, Pakistan might not have learned its lesson, so a re-eruption of hostilities at some future time can’t be ruled out.

Google has agreed to pay $1.375 billion to settle two lawsuits brought by Texas over alleged violations of residents’ data privacy rights, marking one of the largest such settlements in U.S. history and escalating state-level scrutiny of Big Tech.

The settlement, announced Friday by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, resolves claims that the tech giant unlawfully tracked users’ locations, searches, and biometric data—despite user settings designed to protect such information.

“This $1.375 billion settlement is a major win for Texans’ privacy and tells companies that they will pay for abusing our trust,” said Paxton in a statement. “For years, Google secretly tracked people’s movements, private searches, and even their voiceprints and facial geometry through their products and services. I fought back and won.”

The deal, which Paxton said dwarfs any prior state settlement with Google over data privacy, stems from two lawsuits filed in 2022. The allegations focused on the Chrome browser’s Incognito Mode, location tracking practices in Google Maps, and facial recognition data captured through Google Photos.

Friday’s agreement follows a similarly sized $1.4 billion settlement Paxton reached with Meta last year over claims involving unauthorized use of biometric data from Facebook and Instagram users.

While Texas hailed the outcome as a landmark victory, Google emphasized that the agreement does not include any admission of wrongdoing or changes to its current business practices.

“This settles a raft of old claims, many of which have already been resolved elsewhere, concerning product policies we have long since changed,” said Google spokesman José Castañeda. “We are pleased to put them behind us, and we will continue to build robust privacy controls into our services.”

Castañeda noted that Google had already announced or implemented policy updates in response to privacy concerns, independent of the Texas litigation.

The case is the latest in a string of state-level actions challenging how tech companies collect and monetize user data, particularly in the absence of sweeping federal privacy legislation. Paxton and other attorneys general have increasingly positioned themselves as watchdogs of digital privacy amid bipartisan calls for stronger oversight of the technology sector.

For Google, which is already facing federal antitrust trials and regulatory investigations across multiple jurisdictions, the Texas settlement adds another chapter to a growing legal ledger. But for state officials, it sends a broader signal: Tech platforms may operate globally, but they are not immune from local laws – or local penalties.

With the ink now dry on two multibillion-dollar privacy deals in under a year, Texas is asserting a new kind of digital jurisdiction – one that could shape the future of how personal data is protected in the U.S.

Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times,

As the snow and icy rain began to fall on that early winter morning in New York, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, something big was going down.

They didn’t know it, but Jan. 20, 2011, was the beginning of the end for the Mafia.

On that day, the largest law enforcement operation against America’s most infamous crime organization commenced. Hundreds of FBI agents, equipped with criminal warrants, began arresting mob suspects across three states.

This operation was different from the many others that had been launched in the past. Authorities were going for not just the heart of the Mafia—the crime family bosses—but also individuals further down the hierarchy.

By the end of the day, ‘made men’ like Luigi Manocchio, the former boss of the New England Mafia; Andrew Russo, the street boss of New York’s Colombo family; and his acting underboss, Benjamin Castellazzo were in custody.

More than 125 individuals were arrested and charged with felonies including murder, extortion, and loan sharking.

The FBI’s dragnet even captured several labor union officials suspected of collaborating with the Mafia.

U.S. attorney general at the time, Eric Holder, said the FBI’s largest single-day operation, sent a “strong message” in the fight against traditional organized crime. And that wasn’t the end of it.

Still reeling from the 2001 operation, the Mafia was hit again on March 12, 2015, when FBI agents arrested 10 members of the New Jersey-based DeCavalcante crime family on charges of murder and prostitution.

In 2025, the seven traditional crime families known as La Cosa Nostra—meaning “This thing of ours”—are a shadow of their former selves.

While the Mafia was mostly a homegrown threat, there is now a much larger danger facing the United States.

Kristen Setera, spokesperson for the FBI’s Boston field office, said that the organized crime landscape has changed significantly since the late 20th century.

Back then, crime was often organized around hierarchical “families” that operated within neighborhoods, cities, and states.

Now, the United States is dealing with the rise of international criminal enterprises that possess multi-billion-dollar war chests and have a global reach.

Outside of the Mexican drug cartels are the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and the Salvadoran MS-13 gang.

The most insidious of their crimes is the proliferation of illicit fentanyl and other opioids into American society, a flood that was responsible for almost 70 percent of the overdose deaths in the United States in 2024, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

In 2020, the FBI requested more than $137 million in program enhancements to combat transnational organizations and cartels. By 2024, that request increased to $196 million.

In the first quarter of 2025, the DEA seized more than 13.5 million fentanyl pills.

On Feb. 20, the State Department designated several Mexican cartels, as well as Tren de Aragua and MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists.

The Department of Justice said the order marks a significant escalation in the United States government’s fight to eradicate drug cartels and foreign crime groups operating on domestic soil.

“We must do more than try to mitigate the enormous harms these groups cause in America,” the DOJ said in a statement.

“It is not enough to stem the tide of deadly poisons, such as fentanyl, that these groups distribute in our homeland.”

In fiscal year 2024, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) arrested more than 3,600 individuals linked to fentanyl seizures and seized 2,200 pill presses and more than 27,000 pounds of illicit fentanyl at the nation’s borders. The fentanyl alone was equivalent to more than 738 million doses.

Salvatore Sammy “The Bull” Gravano meets with an Epoch Times reporter in Arizona on April 10, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

A Bull in the FBI’s Shop

Salvatore Sammy “The Bull” Gravano has been deeply entrenched in the inner circles of the Mafia machine and has survived.

The former underboss of New York’s Gambino family sounds almost sentimental as he says, “The Mafia is nothing like it used to be—that’s for sure. They’ve boiled down to nothing. It’s not the same.”

If his nostalgia is honest then it’s also ironic, considering he assisted the FBI in bringing down Gambino family leader, John Gotti.

In 1991, Gravano—nicknamed “The Bull” after someone remarked that he fought like a bull in street fights—agreed to testify against Gotti, who was known as “Dapper Don” for his stylish appearance and “Teflon Don” for his remarkable ability to avoid criminal charges.

For his cooperation, Gravano, now 80 years old, served one year of a five-year sentence in federal prison after admitting to his involvement in 19 murders that implicated Gotti, who died in prison on June 10, 2002, from laryngeal cancer.

Gravano also confessed to participating in the 1985 unsanctioned killing of Paul Castellano, the former head of the Gambino family, before Gotti came to power.

Gravano entered the federal Witness Protection Program in Colorado but left in 1995 and relocated to Arizona.

How It All Came Apart

Gravano believes that advancements in surveillance technology, a concerted decades-long effort by the FBI, DEA, and other law enforcement agencies, and use of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act ultimately brought down the organization.

“I think all of them combined—in my era, in my time, [the FBI] combined everybody, all over the place—in New York, they were everywhere,” Gravano told The Epoch Times.

“When you start sticking your finger in the FBI’s face and the government’s face, they’re gonna keep coming at you. So they joined forces—the FBI and the New York Organized Crime Task Force, the DEA,” Gravano said.

“It was the enormous power of the government that came down on them in a big way, and they destroyed quite a bit of it. With the RICO law and the witness protection program, guys were flipping like pancakes. So, you add all of those things together and the Mafia—its era—has passed away.

“They had teams on every family. All five [New York] families had a special team—14 to 16 agents working on each family. And … they busted everybody,” said Gravano.

The federal RICO Act of 1970 was aimed at combating organized crime by enabling its victims to seek recovery through civil lawsuits.

RICO imposes a criminal penalty of 20 years in prison for convictions showing a pattern of racketeering by the accused.

“It allowed for prosecution of organized crime in a way that had never been done before,” said Mafia expert Geoff Schumacher, vice president of exhibits and programs at The Mob Museum in Las Vegas.

“You did not have to prove that the boss of the family had actually pulled the trigger in a murder. He was involved in it because of his association. The burden of proof is reduced significantly.”

James “Whitey” Bulger (R) is escorted from a U.S. Coast Guard helicopter to a waiting vehicle at an airport in Plymouth, Mass., on June 30, 2011. Stuart Cahill/The Boston Herald via AP

Bigger Fish to Fry

Setera would not confirm if the FBI Boston field office had gone so far as to disband its organized crime squad and reassign its agents.

She told The Epoch Times via email that the FBI Boston continues to allocate resources to combat transnational and regional organized criminal enterprises.

“As a matter of general practice, and in keeping with longstanding policy, the FBI doesn’t discuss how it allocates personnel and resources to address today’s dynamic threat environment,” Setera said.

She said disclosing such information could give criminals and foreign adversaries an advantage.

“That said, every year, every field office across the FBI takes a hard look at the threats in their respective area of responsibility and adjusts resources assigned to mitigate those threats to ensure each one is adequately being worked. FBI Boston is no exception,” Setera said.

The FBI’s Boston field office, responsible for large parts of New England, has played a central role in combating organized crime over the past 50 years.

This includes significant efforts against the Patriarca crime family and the infamous Irish mobster James “Whitey” Bulger from South Boston.

Bulger became an informant for the FBI but fled Boston in 1994 after receiving a tip that he was facing murder charges.

After 16 years on the run, authorities caught up with Bulger, then 81, who was living in Santa Monica in 2011. He was tried and convicted and died in prison at the hands of a fellow inmate in 2018.

FBI agents flank Vincent Asaro as they escort the reputed mobster from FBI offices in New York on Jan. 23, 2014. Charles Eckert/Newsday via AP

Today’s Gangs

Gravano stresses that there are intrinsic differences between the Mafia and gangs such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua–most notably, in the use of violence.

“My captain always told me, ‘We can use violence, but as a last resort. In other words, you get into an argument, you gotta chill. Otherwise, you’re an animal,’” Gravano said.

“These gangs are so [expletive] dangerous. They’ll rob a kid’s bike, kill the kid for the bike. You don’t see Mafia guys doing that,” he said.

“These people are completely different.”

Unlike modern crime syndicates, traditional organized crime families adhered to a specific code of conduct, Gravano said.

Gravano said the sanctioned killing of a Mafia member is a serious and complicated matter; it requires planning and the approval of the family boss. Breaking the code often meant a death sentence.

He sees a big difference between the Mafia and the Mexican cartels.

Drug trafficker Waldemar Lorenzana Lima, related to the Mexican Sinaloa drug cartel, was arrested on April 28, 2011, in Guatemala City. Johan  Ordonez/AFP via Getty Images

“They don’t have a code of honor. The Mafia did have a code of honor,” he said. “There’s a lot of us who broke the code of honor a number of times—I mean, I broke it myself. I took it out on a boss—killed a boss—Paul Castellano.

Gravano said of the cartel and gang members: “These are people, like, if a guy cooperates [with law enforcement], they want to kill the wife, the kids—the rest” of their family.

“We don’t kill kids. We don’t kill women. I mean, it happens once in a blue moon, but for practical purposes, we don’t do anything like that.”

MS-13 has more than 10,000 members operating in at least 10 states and the District of Columbia, according to the Department of Justice. The department said thousands more are involved in gang activities, including theft, intimidation, and murder in Central America and Mexico.

“MS-13 is organized by subsets known as ‘cliques,’ and each clique typically has one or more leaders, commonly referred to as ’shot callers,’” the Justice Department stated.

Between 2005 and 2014, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested approximately 4,000 members of MS-13, which represents about 13 percent of the 31,000 gang members arrested nationwide, according to a report by the Center for Immigration Studies, a nonpartisan research organization.

Of those arrested with MS-13 affiliations, at least 92 percent were illegal immigrants and 16 percent of the individuals had illegally entered the United States at least twice.

While MS-13 affiliates made up 13 percent of all gang-related arrests during that time period, they accounted for 35 percent of murderers arrested by ICE, the report noted.

Down but Not Out

While La Cosa Nostra may no longer have the cunning clout it once did, the FBI reports that it continues to pose a “significant threat” in the New York metropolitan area, New England, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Detroit.

Through its investigations, the FBI has created an organizational chart of La Cosa Nostra that resembles a corporate board or commission.

At the top of the hierarchy is the crime family’s “boss” or don, along with his “consigliere,” who acts as an adviser.

The “underboss” is second in command, followed by the “capo,” a ranking member in charge of a crew of “soldiers.”

All these “soldiers” are “made men” who have taken an oath of silence.

At the lowest level of the hierarchy are the “associates,” uninitiated crew members who participate in various crimes under the family’s protection and are entitled to a share of the profits.

In 1988, John Gotti promoted Gravano to the position of consigliere after the latter had served as a captain for several years.

Gravano believes that traditional organized crime is far less glamorous than it was in the last century.

“Sooner or later, you got [law enforcement] people looking at you all the time. Sooner or later, you’re going to jail. And you’re going to do heavy time,” Gravano said.

“I don’t know why a young guy would want to get into it any more—because it’s stylish, maybe. But it’s going to bring you nothing but headaches.”

Gravano has seen other internal changes in “the life” of the Mafia that have undermined its once dominant role.

The traditional code of conduct, once a matter of life and death during Prohibition, is fast losing its influence, he said.

The Mafia code of silence, known as “omerta,” was a pillar of loyalty, Gravano said.

Old-school mobsters facing jail time were less likely to “rat” on other members, Schumacher said.

“Back in the day, these guys were willing to serve their time. They would not flip. That did change during the ‘70s and ’80s,” he said.

“You started seeing pretty high-profile mobsters—including Sammy “The Bull”—becoming government witnesses. That’s devastating evidence.

“He really was a big factor in taking down John Gotti.”

That code died when mobsters testified against other mobsters during the 1990s and 2000s.

The goal was to secure the best possible deal with the prosecution to obtain lighter jail sentences and avoid getting killed for cooperating with authorities, he said.

“I see [the Mafia] disappearing more and more,” Gravano said. “And I think there’s a lot of money to be made legitimately. Why would I want to be in the Mafia today?”

Times have changed, Gravano said.

Once, the Mafia had control over the labor unions through which it gained access to lucrative construction projects in the cities.

“You can’t get control of those unions now [with] 50 million phone cameras,” Gravano said. “Everybody’s taking pictures. You can’t get near the unions anymore.”

The Sheriff and the Mobster

After Gravano spent 18 months in the government’s witness protection program in Colorado, he moved to Arizona and became involved in the illegal trafficking of recreational narcotics in the late 1990s.

In June 2001, he pleaded guilty in Maricopa County, Arizona, to state charges for the distribution of the street drug ecstasy. His sentence included 19 years in prison and a $100,000 fine. He was released in 2017 and remains on supervised parole for the rest of his life.

Joe Arpaio, 92, served as a federal narcotics agent for 32 years before becoming the head of the DEA’s Arizona field office.

In 1993, he was elected as the sheriff of Maricopa County and became known for his tough stance on crime and unconventional punishment methods.

He reinstituted chain gangs, required inmates to wear pink underwear, and had them live in a tent city and eat bologna sandwiches. These moves earned Arpaio the moniker, “America’s Toughest Sheriff.”

Gravano and Arpaio’s paths eventually crossed at a Trump support rally during the 2024 election.

They also met twice after the election to discuss the realities of organized crime and the prison conditions that Gravano experienced in Maricopa County while Arpaio was the sheriff.

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio speaks at a news conference at the Sheriff’s headquarters in Phoenix on Dec. 18, 2013. Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo

As a former narcotics agent, Arpaio believes that the Mafia’s involvement in illicit drug trafficking—cocaine, heroin, and marijuana—was their “worst mistake,” one that brought the full weight of the DEA and FBI upon them.

“That brought everybody down on them,” he said.

Over the years, Arpaio has developed a perspective about the mob compared to their violent foreign counterparts.

“The mob had their regulations, which were you didn’t kill kids. And you didn’t kill cops,” Arpaio told The Epoch Times. “The so-called Mafia [foreign gangs and cartels] today kill kids; they’re vicious, and they kill cops. So there’s a big difference.”

Mafia expert Geoff Schumacher, vice president of exhibits and programs at The Mob Museum in Las Vegas, said it’s a misconception that crime families shunned narcotics trafficking before the emergence of Mexican drug cartels.

“You go back to the Prohibition era, and the Mafia was involved in drug trafficking,” he said.

“There’s this myth that the Mafia wouldn’t touch drugs—that the bosses didn’t want anyone involved in selling drugs. While sometimes they would say that publicly, they were actively engaged in drug trafficking,” Schumacher said.

“Today, I suspect the Mexican cartels have kind of a stranglehold on that.”

A soldier stands guard inside a clandestine chemical drug processing laboratory discovered in Mexico on Feb. 9, 2012. Hector Guerrero/AFP/Getty Images

Will the Mafia Ever Return?

Arpaio said that the term “Mafia” will endure even after the crime families have disappeared.

“The name of the Mafia isn’t disappearing,” Arpaio said. “You’ve got crime stories and all this having to do with the mob, the old mob. There’s only one Mafia.”

Schumacher said that the five New York families—Bonanno, Columbo, Gambino, Genovese, and Luchese—are still active.

They continue their involvement in illegal bookmaking, loan sharking, tax fraud, and stock market fraud, with a greater emphasis on white-collar crime.

“There’s not much killing anymore—not much of that kind of stuff,” Schumacher said. “It’s more in finding illegal ways to make money.”

“There are still remnants of the Mafia in New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Detroit. But it is fading fast.”

ICE agents apprehend fugitive criminal aliens for alleged involvement in the illegal narcotics trade in Boston on Nov. 4, 2019. ICE

‘Misplaced Fascination’

Even as traditional organized crime is waning, the public’s fascination persists, Schumacher said.

“We should never look at it as glamorous,” he cautioned. “There was almost nothing positive about it. It sold a lot of newspapers. I can say that.”

“One of the reasons for nostalgia is that some of the mob bosses had charisma, personality, fueled by tabloid journalism and Hollywood.

“We created this monster, if you will. There’s nothing wrong with studying history, learning it, being interested in it, as long as we maintain our perspective.”

Gravano now focuses on his podcast ‘Our Thing with Sammy The Bull’ and his YouTube channel called ‘Salvatore Sammy The Bull Gravano’.

He has chosen to live his life openly and share his story, and recognizes the risks that come with this decision.

“I like the road, dealing with people—legitimate people.”

In September 2024, he formally became a born-again Christian. He wears a solid gold and diamond pinky ring to signify his past life in the mob.

“I changed when I left the life,” Gravano said.

“I don’t miss the life. But when I think about it, everything I’ve done—the good, the bad, the ugly—has made me what I am today.”

President Donald Trump announced late on May 11 that he would sign an executive order which would reduce prescription drug prices in the US by 30% to 80% “almost immediately” while also raising drug prices “rise throughout the World in order to equalize and, for the first time in many years, bring FAIRNESS TO AMERICA!”

To achieve that, Trump would institute what he called a most-favored nation policy “whereby the United States will pay the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World.” Healthcare costs in the US “will be reduced by numbers never even thought of before,” he said.

Trump’s Truth Social post, which was preceded by an earlier one that promised as one of “most important and impactful” statements he has ever issued, didn’t detail how the order would work. 

He also didn’t specify potential limits on the policy, such as whether it would apply only to government programs such as Medicare or Medicaid, if it would be limited to certain drugs or categories of drugs or if the White House sees a way to apply this more broadly.

Asian pharmaceutical companies fell in early Monday trading. Japanese drugmaker Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. dropped as much as 7.2%, the most in a month, with peers Daiichi Sankyo and Takeda Pharmaceuticals losing around 5%. In South Korea, SK Biopharmaceuticals Co., Celltrion Inc. and Samsung Biologics Co. all fell over 3%.

Americans pay the most in the world for medicines, fueling innovation and driving the growth of the pharmaceutical industry. Drugmakers have said revamping the system will slash revenue and stifle the development of breakthrough therapies that have the potential to lengthen and improve lives.

Trump cited the industry’s argument, but said it meant that “the ‘suckers’ of America” ended up bearing those costs “for no reason whatsoever.”

As Bloomberg notes, the US government already negotiates prices for some of the highest-cost medicines used in Medicare health insurance under the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in 2022 under former President Joe Biden, with more slated to be added every year. The first two rounds of drug price negotiations haven’t included physician-administered drugs, but the next round might.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggested Trump might have been inspired by an idea he floated on X in March, when he said the best way to reduce US drug prices “is to make it illegal for drug companies to sell the same drugs abroad for lower prices than they sell them for here.”

In his first term, Trump proposed a Medicare pilot program for drugs with no low-cost generic competition that are given in doctor’s offices, saying he wanted to bring prices in line with countries like France and Japan where they cost dramatically less. 

That plan, which would have phased in over three years, aimed to ensure Medicare paid the lowest price offered to a group of 22 nations.

The effort was struck down in federal court after drug companies challenged it, claiming the administration hadn’t properly carried out the rulemaking process. The Biden administration didn’t appeal that finding, and instead pursued legislation that led to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Update: Two hours after the US delegation delivered its constructive remarks on the trade talks, China has done the same and it is generally a carbon copy of with what Bessent/Greer said earlier (hardly by accident):

• CHINA’S VICE PREMIER HE LIFENG: ON CHINA-U.S. TRADE TALKS, BOTH SIDES HAD IN-DEPTH EXCHANGE 

• HE LIFENG: TRADE TALKS WERE CONSTRUCTIVE, MADE SUBSTANTIVE PROGRESS

• HE LIFENG: BOTH SIDES REACHED IMPORTANT CONSENSUS 

• HE LIFENG: BOTH SIDES AGREED TO ESTABLISH CHINA-U.S. TRADE CONSULTATION MECHANISM

Not surprisingly weekend futures are surging on what appears to be a favorable outcome from the weekend talks with Nasdaq up over 2%, breaking pre-Liberation Day highs:

* * *

Just hours after Trump praised China tariff talks, saying that “great progress” had been made and that a “total reset” of relations was on the table, the second day of trade negotiations between the US and China concluded moments ago, and there was more good news: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the US and China made “substantial progress” adding that they will share more details on Monday.

*  *  *

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The announcement followed hours of meetings between Bessent, Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The talks were hosted by the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations, whose residence was used as the venue for the two countries’ teams.

Here are the Bloomberg and Reuters headlines after day 2:

• BESSENT: US, CHINA MADE ‘SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS’ ON DEAL
• GREER: IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND HOW QUICK WE CAME TO AGREEMENT
• THIS WAS A VERY CONSTRUCTIVE 2 DAYS
• DIFFERENCES NOT AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
• BESSENT: COMPLETE BRIEFING COMING TOMORROW MORNING

Bessent said that “talks were productive” and involved China’s Vice Premier, two Vice Ministers who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson and myself.” Bessent said that he “will be giving details tomorrow.”

“I spoke  to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. There will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement regarding US-China trade/tariff talks in Geneva ⬇️

“We will be giving details tomorrow. But I can tell you that the talks were productive.” pic.twitter.com/MvfALA5IzR

— Tucker Carlson Network 🇺🇸 Fan Account (@TCNetworkFans) May 11, 2025

Separately, USTR Jamieson Greer said that “it’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement which were that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought.”

“That being said, there was a lot of groundwork that went into these two days… we’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to resolve, work toward resolving that national emergency.”

🚨 JUST IN: A DEAL has been struck with the Chinese on trade after Scott Bessent’s discussions…

GREER: “It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement which were that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought.”

“That being said,… pic.twitter.com/EhpFEC2fKe

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 11, 2025

Tensions between the world’s two biggest economies reached a new high point after President Donald Trump steadily increased tariffs on Beijing to 145%. The duties are supposed to address China’s role in the fentanyl trade, its massive trade surplus with the US, and respond to Beijing’s retaliatory measures imposed after Trump’s opening salvo. China in response increased its tariffs on US goods to 125%. Looking forward, however, Goldman expects a substantial drop in tariffs, expecting them to be cut by at least a half.

The tariff tit-for-tat led to a standoff between the world’s two largest economies, with neither side wanting to budge and no off-ramp in sight; however amid the economic slowdown, both sides acknowledged a reduction in tensions and tariffs is necessary and public talks were announced.

Is this the massive and key breakthrough the world has been waiting for? It started with President Putin’s Sunday proposal to hold talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday, May 15. Trump has called it “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” and stressed he would “work with both sides to make sure it happens”. The White House has been busy unleashing frustration on both sides over lack of progress toward a negotiated settlement to the war which has likely taken hundreds of thousands of lives.

“We propose to start [negotiations] without delay on Thursday, May 15 in Istanbul,” Putin said Sunday, saying he would soon speak to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to ask for his help in facilitating the talks. The direct engagement is being framed as a return to short-lived talks which began within the opening months of the Russian invasion. “We propose to the Kyiv authorities to resume the talks that they broke off in 2022, and, I emphasize, without any preconditions,” Putin said.

And then within hours after, on Sunday Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to raise the stakes higher, announcing that he will fly to Turkey where he’s ready to meet with Putin personally on Thursday. “I will be in Türkiye this Thursday, May 15, and I expect Putin to come to Türkiye as well,” he wrote on X, emphasizing he will be there “Personally”… “And I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he ‘can’t’ make it. We are ready to talk, to end this war.” He then said again, “Thursday. Türkiye. President Trump has expressed support. All the leaders support this.”

Starting tomorrow, we await a ceasefire — this proposal is on the table. A full and unconditional ceasefire, one that lasts long enough to provide a necessary foundation for diplomacy, could significantly bring peace closer. Ukraine has long proposed this, our partners are… pic.twitter.com/TVpJbldfh4

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 11, 2025

“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye…,” Zelensky also said, throwing down the gauntlet.

Just prior to the surprisingly bold overtures from both sides, President Trump had ratcheted up the pressure, expressing frustration aimed at both Moscow and Kiev, but especially putting the onus on Moscow – which happens to be winning the war, by most accounts.

“President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday in Turkey to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH,” Trump wrote earlier on his Truth Social platform.

He insisted that the leaders should meet regardless, even if both have no stomach for compromise. “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!”

Essentially Trump to is throwing down the gauntlet – saying that the two should have the meeting now, or expose which side really wants to continue the war and the killing.

“I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America,” Trump wrote Sunday. “HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!” This has apparently nudged both sides, but it remains anything but clear whether Putin is himself ready to fly to Istanbul, especially given there are no clear, practical signs Kiev is ready to offer any significant compromise, or anything new will come of it.

Even though Zelensky now says he’s willing and ready to sit across the table from Putin – a first in over three years of war – is he ready to make territorial concessions?

It’s unlikely, given Moscow de facto already sees the four eastern oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as “forever” part of the Russian federation. Of course, Crimea might be the opening test case, as the Kremlin is also certainly not going to budge on control of the vital Black Sea peninsula either. And yet so far Zelensky hasn’t publicly budged from his position on Crimea.

But it would be interesting to at least see what comes of the proposed direct talks. Likely this will indeed be enough to at least see the two warring sides’ negotiating teams meet, if not the heads of state themselves.

Zelensky is meanwhile chalking it up as possibly a ‘win’ for his side, while Trump is also celebrating: “It is a positive sign that the Russians have finally begun to consider ending the war,” Zelensky has asserted. “The entire world has been waiting for this for a very long time. And the very first step in truly ending any war is a ceasefire.”

Indeed, yet the entire world has also been waiting on him to make the compromises that would allow this to happen, which would include Moscow’s demand that his government stop persecuting Russian-speaking Ukrainians, as well as the Moscow-aligned Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Should Putin not personally go to Istanbul, Zelensky will simply use it as ‘told ya so’ leverage with Washington and his Western allies. Likely this is what this spectacle is really about.