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Trump’s Newest Iran Sanctions Another Shot Across China’s Bow

Trump’s Newest Iran Sanctions Another Shot Across China’s Bow

Thursday saw President Trump and the US Treasury unleash a new sanctions pile-on against Iran, with a new rollout of secondary sanctions targeting Iranian oil and petrochemical products, sending crude prices higher on the day…

“They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form,” the President wrote on Truth Social in combination with a Treasury statement. It’s as yet unclear precisely how such sanctions will be implemented, with the most extreme or ‘nuclear option’ being naval intervention against vessels transporting Iranian oil.

Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang meets with Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in Beijing last month. Yin Bogu/Xinhua via Getty Images

The main warning and teeth behind it centers on the threat that any nation buying oil or petrochemicals from the Islamic Republic will be barred from doing any business with the US.

“Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions,” Trump stated in the post. Oil had quickly jumped 2% on the mid-afternoon announcement.

Trump is clearly setting out to negotiate from a position of “strength” amid his maximum pressure campaign, aimed at getting Tehran to sign on to a fresh nuclear agreement.

Talks have apparently hit some logistical hurdles, or perhaps Trump’s new secondary sanctions have resulted in jitters and renewal of anger and lack of trust from Iranian leadership:

A fourth round of Iran-US talks over Tehran’s nuclear program has been postponed.

Iran said the two countries, along with facilitators Oman, had jointly decided to postpone Saturday’s meeting in Rome for “logistical and technical reasons”. The US said the timing of the talks had not been confirmed in the first place.

Is this an intentional stall?

Surely it’s also a shot across China’s bow, given that it imports over a million barrels per day from Iran, and for years amid Tehran’s isolation has been the biggest buyer of Iranian crude.

As for when US-Iran talks might resume, after relatively ‘positive’ prior recent rounds, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi emphasized Thursday on X that Tehran’s “determination to secure a negotiated solution” had not changed.

Kpler & TankerTrackers.com

He wrote: “In fact, we are more determined than ever to achieve a just and balanced deal: guaranteeing an end to sanctions, and creating confidence that Iran’s nuclear program will forever remain peaceful while ensuring that Iranian rights are fully respected.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 22:35

Social Security Cuts Overpayment Withholding Rate To 50% Down From 100%

Social Security Cuts Overpayment Withholding Rate To 50% Down From 100%

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced a new policy that reduces the default withholding rate to 50 percent for recovering Social Security benefit overpayments under Title II, the federal program covering retirement and disability insurance.

The change, outlined in an “emergency message” dated April 25, comes less than a month after the agency raised the withholding rate to 100 percent of monthly benefits—up from a prior 10 percent—to recoup overpayments. The initial sharp increase drew criticism from some lawmakers and advocates, who warned that full withholding could harm some lower-income Americans who rely on Social Security to meet basic needs.

Under the updated directive, any overpayment notice issued on or after April 25 will automatically carry a 50 percent withholding rate. Beneficiaries will have 90 days to respond—either by contesting the overpayment, requesting a waiver, or negotiating a lower repayment rate. If no action is taken within that window, the SSA will start withholding half the monthly benefit until the overpayment is fully repaid.

The updated rules do not apply to Title XVI overpayments, such as those involving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients, who still face the 10 percent withholding rate. The revised policy also excludes cases involving fraud or similar fault, which follow different recovery procedures.

The shift marks the third related policy change in just over a year. In March 2024, the agency lowered the default withholding rate from 100 percent to 10 percent, citing the wish to ease financial hardship for affected Americans.

“It’s unconscionable that someone would find themselves facing homelessness or unable to pay bills, because Social Security withheld their entire payment for recovery of an overpayment,” Martin O’Malley, then Commissioner of Social Security, said at the time.

That policy was reversed last month, on March 27, when SSA reinstated full 100 percent withholding, citing fiscal responsibility and an estimated $7 billion in savings over the next decade.

“We have the significant responsibility to be good stewards of the trust funds for the American people,” Lee Dudek, Acting Commissioner of Social Security, said in a statement.

Rep. John B. Larson (D-Conn.) criticized the increase as “unconscionable,” arguing that overpayments are not the fault of beneficiaries and overpaid recipients who rely on Social Security to make ends meet would face undue hardship if their entire checks were suddenly seized.

With its latest decision to cut the withholding rate in half, the SSA appears to be seeking a middle ground between fiscal responsibility and potential beneficiary hardship.

The agency disbursed roughly $1.4 trillion in benefits in fiscal year 2023 across its retirement and disability programs, according to the agency’s 2024 financial report. Of that amount, around $3.3 billion—or 0.24 percent—was classified as overpayments.

SSA’s overpayment recovery practices have come under increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and watchdogs in recent years, particularly for the stress they impose on beneficiaries who may have had little or no role in the errors.

In a November 2023 letter, Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) urged the agency to minimize overpayments and protect recipients from abrupt financial disruption, especially when the mistakes stem from agency error.

The Government Accountability Office has echoed those concerns, noting that the majority of disability beneficiaries who return to work eventually face overpayments—often amounting to thousands of dollars due to complex reporting rules and processing delays.

The SSA says it has launched an internal review and is working to expand data-sharing with payroll systems to help reduce payment errors.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 22:10

Economic Illiterate Kamala Harris Attacks Trump Tariffs As ‘Absolute Chaos’

Economic Illiterate Kamala Harris Attacks Trump Tariffs As ‘Absolute Chaos’

It’s an old dictum but it remains true that you never want to interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake.  That said, it’s oh so tempting to analyze the behavior of the Democratic Party as a perfect representation of blind cultism.  How did they plunge from the heights of the Obama Administration and near complete control of American culture to the depths of the Biden Administration, the Kamala Harris campaign and the degeneracy of woke groomers?

One could follow the root back to the problem of absolutism; leftist never admit when they are wrong and they always double down because they think they are the ultimate arbiters of ethics.  Even with the abject failures of Kamala Harris during the 2024 elections the Democrats continue to claim that the “real reason” they lost, the real reason their public approval numbers are at historic lows, is because they “need to do the same things they’ve been doing, but do them harder”.  

This is why the progressive movement is dead in the water.  They just can’t accept that the majority of Americans fundamentally do not like them, their polices or their beliefs.  Most Americans can’t connect to the hypocrisy, and they certainly don’t want to hear criticisms of the Trump Administration by the same people who lied incessantly and failed the country in every way imaginable.

An army of naysayers, primarily among Democrats, have gone on the attack against Trump’s tariffs using obviously scripted terminology, repeating the word “chaos” over an over again in the hopes that it will stick.  In reality, most of the “chaos” has come from the political left trying to disrupt or sabotage Trump’s efforts in any way they can. It’s almost like the 2024 campaign never ended, but that’s how these people operate. 

Kamala Harris, an economic illiterate and possibly one of the most embarrassing candidates the Democrats have ever fielded, has suddenly slithered up from the wreckage of her recent White House bid to regurgitate the same predictable talking points.  She says the tariffs are creating chaos; she also claims that she predicted they would cause a recession and she’s here to say “she told us so”. 

One could argue that recession factors were already heavily present during the Biden Administration, but Democrats are hoping most people don’t actually know what a recession is.

The chaos narrative is a scheme to tap into a subset of the population that innately fears change or reform.  Keep in mind, four years of Biden and Harris brought nothing but total chaos to the US, but economically they did maintain the status quo.  The status quo being the perpetual march into stagflatiory crisis, ever higher prices, ever higher taxes and less economic freedom for the average citizen. 

What the public is desperate for is to try something different, but anytime new fiscal policies are suggested they are immediately and viciously degraded as a trigger for “chaos”. 

These arguments come from people (like Harris) that don’t have the slightest understanding of America’s financial situation.  At this stage, a recession and some moderate deflation would be a welcome development given that the Biden regime helped to inflate prices on necessities beyond what most people in the middle class can afford.  And, if Trump can actually convert tariffs into government revenues to replace the income tax as he has promised, then the economic renaissance that would result would be unmatched.

To be fair, it is in many ways a gamble.  If tariffs are applied for the long term they will require subsequent and speedy manufacturing development on US soil.  This is happening already on a limited scale.  There is also the likelihood that prices on many imported goods will rise.  However, a focus on lowering the costs of domestic necessities like food, energy and housing is what needs to be prioritized (not plastic Chinese trinkets) and sticking with the inflationary trends of globalism is not going to help.     

Harris and Democrats want to tie Trump and conservatives to the economy like an anchor and throw it overboard in the hopes that their ideological opponents will be dragged to the bottom.  They are also overestimating the public’s capacity for forgiveness when it comes to the damage the Dems have already done.  At no point have they offered any practical solutions to the dangers facing the US system. Furthermore, they are greatly underestimating the American desire to see the globalist system crash and burn.  People are cheering the death of globalism, not living in fear of it.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 21:45

A Curricular Solution To The Crisis Of Civic Illiteracy

A Curricular Solution To The Crisis Of Civic Illiteracy

Authored by David Bruce Smith via RealClearPublicAffairs,

John and Abigail Adams envisioned an America with a school in every neighborhood and a well-informed citizenry that was adept in languages, literature, and music, as well as science, history, and religion. Their vision was practical until the ages recast it, little by little.

Then sometime between Joseph McCarthy and Joan Baez, the status quo of the educational system came undone.

Students who had been accustomed to a traditional 50/50 split between the humanities and the sciences were capsized academically by the surprise Sputnik launch in 1957. The U.S.’s race to space sent higher education into a tizzy, becoming fixated on improving science education above all. In the succeeding seven decades, resources have consistently risen for STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), which has been to our benefit. But this has come at an unnecessary cost: the humanities have been downplayed, devalued, and dodged.

That uneven ratio has bestowed an unfortunate historic illiteracy on three generations. Most people, for example, do not know the philosophical roots of the Declaration of Independence, their rights as laid out in the Constitution, or the civic virtues their teachers should have taught them. For these three reasons, many Americans do not vote in local, state, or national elections.

Even amid this crisis of civic illiteracy, only about 18% of colleges and universities nationwide require the study of history and government in their general education programs. In years past, when the architecture of academe was different, a plethora of institutions, such as Harvard, Rice, Notre Dame, Johns Hopkins, and William & Mary, proffered requirements for focused classes in American history. But their phase-out – begun in the 1960s – was practically completed by 2000.

According to a report from the American Council of Trustees and Alumni, nowadays, at Columbia University, “Students must take at least nine courses to graduate with a B.A. in history. Of these courses, four must be in a chosen field of geographical, chronological, or thematic specialization, and three must be outside of the specialization, including one course removed in time and two courses removed in space.” In other words, the major requires exposure to a variety of histories – none of which need touch on America.

That gap in Columbia’s history major requirements is deeply troubling, though it at least has a Contemporary Civilization requirement in its signature core curriculum for undergraduates that addresses founding documents and key concepts of United States government. Meanwhile, at Colgate University, which has no such option in its general education requirements,

“Students choose one of two pathways to graduate with a B.A. in history. Both require nine courses. The Field of Focus (FoF) Pathway requires one history workshop, seven electives….. The FoF Pathway allows students to devise individualized, intellectually coherent specializations. Possible fields of focus include environmental history, gender and sexuality, and race and racism.”

This reorientation away from the study of American history – even as a point of reference for students who are focusing their studies on other parts of the world – is now the norm in the American academy. In the 2020–21 academic year, 18 of the top 25 public universities did not have a wide-ranging American history requirement for students seeking a B.A. in history in the major or core curriculum, nor did 24 of the 25 best national schools.

Even the legendary linchpins of the liberal arts – Amherst, Swarthmore, Vassar, Smith, Williams, and Pomona – fared poorly: 21 out of 25 colleges examined did not have an American history requirement.

The consequences of forgoing the study of American history have a powerful effect on the population. Much of what is not learned – or stays uncorrected – turns into the misinformation that is so damaging in a free and democratic society.

When 8th graders were asked in 2011 to choose a “‘belief shared by most people of the United States,’ a majority (51 percent) picked ‘The government should guarantee everybody a job,’ and only a third chose the correct answer: ‘The government should be a democracy.’”

In 2015, 10% of college graduates believed Judy Sheindlin – TV’s “Judge Judy” – was a member of the Supreme Court.

In 2019, ACTA found that 18% of American adults thought New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was the architect of the New Deal, a package of programs introduced by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933. Twenty-six percent believed Brett Kavanaugh was the current Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, along with another 14% who identified Antonin Scalia, although he had been dead for two years at the time of the survey. Only 12% knew the 13th Amendment freed the slaves in the United States. And 30% thought the Equal Rights Amendment guaranteed women the right to vote.

In 2024, an ACTA survey of college students showed that fewer than half identified ideas like “free markets” and “rule of law” as core principles of American civic life. The survey also found that 60% of American college students failed to identify term lengths for members of Congress. A shocking 68% did not know that Congress is the branch that holds the power to declare war. Seventy-one percent did not know when 18-year-olds gained the right to vote.

All of these results were based on multiple-choice questions. All the respondents had to do was select the correct option out of four possibilities.  

The late Bruce Cole, chairman of the National Endowment for the Humanities from 2001 to 2009, admonished, “Unlike a monarchy, a democracy is not automatically self-perpetuating. History and values have to be renewed from generation to generation.” Our failure to educate future citizens for informed civic participation compromises the country. Institutions need to take ACTA’s findings to heart and, starting with their requirements for the history major, embrace their obligation to address the crisis in civic education.  

David Bruce Smith is the founder of the Grateful American® Foundation and co-founder of the Grateful American® Book Prize.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 21:20

Futures Jump After China Says It Is “Evaluating” Trade Talks

Futures Jump After China Says It Is “Evaluating” Trade Talks

Update (9:20pm ET): the first reaction from the US side comes in by way of Marco Rubio who speaks in a Fox News interview, and it is very much as expected: he makes it seem that China reached out first, which to Beijing is a non-started as its specific framework is that the US was reaching out in order for Xi not to lose face:

  • RUBIO SAYS CHINA IS REACHING OUT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES
  • RUBIO: CHINESE WANT TO MEET AND TALK

And now it is up to China to respond, although since both sides can’t seem to even agree on who will cede ground by reached out first, we expect this latest attempt at detente won’t go too far.

* * *

Futures spiked, moving back to session highs and forgetting all about the bitter taste from disappointing results from Amazon and Apple, following news from Bloomberg that China was “assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US” the first sign since Donald Trump hiked tariffs last month that negotiations could begin between the two sides.

China’s Commerce Ministry said in a Friday statement that it had noted senior US officials repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” towards China.

“The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry added. “China is currently evaluating this.”

Of course, the Chinese spin is one in which the Trump admin reached out first, and which the US pro-China media will promptly use to hammer Trump with, resulting in an even quick denial by the president and thus, China, thereby erasing any hope of an overture, one which won’t come until both sides are quite desperate.

For now, however, the reaction to the flashing red headline was stark as &P 500 erased early losses in Asia while a gauge of regional equities also turned positive after the statement. The offshore yuan edged stronger, while the Australian dollar, a China proxy, also extended gains.

The statement signals the stalemate between the world’s two largest economies could shift, after Trump hiked US tariffs to the highest level in a century and Beijing retaliated in kind.

Trump has repeatedly said President Xi Jinping needs to contact him in order to begin tariff talks and earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it’s up to Beijing to take the first step to de-escalate the dispute; China has done the same.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 21:09

Tether Plans US Stablecoin Launch As Soon As This Year; Report

Tether Plans US Stablecoin Launch As Soon As This Year; Report

Authored by Alex O’Donnell via CoinTelegraph.com,

Tether plans to launch a stablecoin product in the United States as soon as this year, the stablecoin issuer’s CEO, Paul Ardoino, said in an April 30 CNBC interview.

Tether’s flagship stablecoin, USDt, is already the US dollar’s top “exporter,” Ardoino told CNBC. 

It has a market capitalization of nearly $150 billion, according to data from CoinGecko. 

Now, Tether is preparing to expand into the US market “by the end of this year or early next year, at the fastest,” Ardoino said, adding that the timing depends on US lawmakers’ progress on stablecoin legislation.

The stablecoin issuer is working to woo US regulators by proactively collaborating with law enforcement and highlighting USDt’s benefits for the US economy.

“We are just exporters of what we believe to be the best product the United States ever created — that is, the US dollar,” the CEO said.

Tether’s USDT has 66% of the stablecoin market share. Source: Nansen

Market leader

As of April 25, USDt commanded a roughly 66% market share among stablecoins, according to Nansen, a Web3 researcher. 

Tether is also the most profitable stablecoin issuer, logging a net income of nearly $14 billion in 2024. 

It earns revenue by accepting US dollars to mint USDt and then investing those dollars into highly liquid, yield-bearing instruments such as US Treasury bills. Still, USDt’s popularity is largely limited to users outside of the United States, where rival stablecoin USDC is dominant.

Tether designed USDt “for the people that live in small villages in Africa… [or] a shop owner in Istanbul,” Ardoino told CNBC, adding that Tether is developing a “different product” for the US.

Adoption of USDC has accelerated in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s November election win, Nansen said in an April 25 report. Circle’s USDC has a market capitalization of more than $60 billion, CoinGecko data shows. 

However, USDt is still likely to maintain its leading position in the stablecoin market.  “Despite the potential dispersion in stables, we inevitably believe this is a ‘winner-takes-most’ market dynamic,” the Web3 researcher added. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 18:50

US House Passes Resolution To Stop California From Banning Gas-Powered Cars

US House Passes Resolution To Stop California From Banning Gas-Powered Cars

The U.S. House of Representatives passed (245-164) Rep. John Joyce’s (R-PA) H.J. Res.88, a resolution blocking the Biden Environmental Protection Agency’s waiver that would let California ban petrol-powered cars and trucks and force dystopian electric vehicle mandates nationwide. 

H.J. Res. 88 seeks to overturn a Biden-era EPA decision that granted California a waiver to ban the sale of new petrol-powered vehicles by 2035. This mandate would’ve had massive ripples far beyond the progressive state’s borders, forcing automakers to comply nationwide with EV mandates, thus leading to a surge in driving costs for all working families. Without intervention, California’s toxic climate policy could effectively dictate EV mandates nationwide. 

“Today, the House passed RepJohnJoyce’s H.J.Res.88 to reverse a Biden-era regulation that requires all of the vehicles in America to be emission-free,” House Republicans wrote on X, adding this repeal would be some of the first steps in “reversing Biden’s disastrous EV mandates and giving power back to consumers to decide which cars they want to drive.” 

As of May, eleven U.S. states have adopted California’s plan to phase out the sale of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. These states include New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. Together, these states account for about 40% of the U.S. auto market.

“Proud to see my bill to protect consumer choice in the automobile market pass the House in a bipartisan fashion,” Rep. Joyce wrote on X.

The Republican representative from Pennsylvania noted, “Congress cannot allow California to set national policy. I urge my Senate colleagues to pass this legislation so @POTUS can protect the freedom of the open road for the American people.”

Dismantling California’s EV mandates is a top priority for President Trump. This week, the Western world was served a sobering reminder of the consequences tied to the aggressive march toward net zero death: 

Action on the measure now moves to the Senate.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 18:25

What We Know About The Illegal Immigrant Allegedly Helped By A Wisconsin Judge To Evade ICE

What We Know About The Illegal Immigrant Allegedly Helped By A Wisconsin Judge To Evade ICE

Authored by Janice Hisle and Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

The man arrested by immigration authorities in Milwaukee – despite a Wisconsin judge’s alleged attempt to shield him – is being held in a neighboring county’s jail as controversy continues to swirl around the case.

Eduardo Flores Ruiz, 30, was locked up in the Ozaukee County Jail awaiting further court action as of April 30.

He is accused of injuring three people in a recent domestic dispute, online records show.

The Mexico native is the defendant whom Judge Hannah Dugan is accused of assisting in an April 18 incident at the Milwaukee County Circuit Court.

Flores Ruiz appeared at the court for a hearing on that date, but it didn’t proceed, federal authorities say, after Dugan allegedly took actions to thwart Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers who were poised to arrest the defendant and begin deportation proceedings.

Federal officials accuse the judge of helping Flores Ruiz and his lawyer to exit through a restricted-use door. Officers, however, were able to arrest him after a foot chase outside the courthouse.

He was previously deported to his home country in 2013, before being accused in the domestic violence case that was assigned to Dugan, officials said.

The state Supreme Court suspended Dugan while she contests charges of concealing Flores Ruiz and obstructing ICE.

Dugan, who was arrested on April 25, is set for her next court hearing as a defendant on May 15 in Milwaukee federal court.

This 2016 photo shows Judge Hannah Dugan in Milwaukee, Wis. Lee Matz/Milwaukee Independent via AP

Milwaukee County court and police records reveal more information about the incident that landed Flores Ruiz in Dugan’s court on three domestic abuse-battery charges.

Three people told police that Flores Ruiz injured them during a March 12 verbal and physical altercation, after which two of them sought hospital treatment.

Miguel Mendoza-Figueroa alleged that Flores Ruiz “intentionally … struck him multiple times in his body and face, causing pain and scratches during a verbal argument about loud music,” the police report says. 

The man reported being punched about 30 times.

When Deyci Torres Sierra, identified as Miguel’s girlfriend, tried to intervene, Flores Ruiz “struck her multiple times in her head” with his fist, inflicting pain, the report says.

A second woman, Maria Sierra Chihuahua, said she, too, tried to break up the fight, and Flores Ruiz “elbowed her in her upper left arm.”

Police said that, when questioned at the scene, Flores Ruiz described the incident as “a mutual fight” between himself and Mendoza-Figueroa, a court record shows.

The defendant is set to appear on the three charges in the county court again on May 14. Each of the charges is a Class A Misdemeanor, punishable upon conviction by a fine of up to $10,000 and nine months behind bars.

Dugan remains in online records as the judge assigned to his case, despite her temporary suspension from duty. The Epoch Times was unable to reach the court’s chief justice for clarification.

The Epoch Times sought comment from Flores Ruiz’s lawyer, Mercedes de la Rosa, and the local prosecutor handling the case, Kylan Reilly, and received no reply prior to publication.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 18:00

Apple Slides On China Sales Slump And Soft Service Revenue, Despite Tariff Frontrunning Revenue Boost And New $100BN Buyback

Apple Slides On China Sales Slump And Soft Service Revenue, Despite Tariff Frontrunning Revenue Boost And New $100BN Buyback

Ahead of Apple’s earnings report this afternoon, which concludes the results from big 4 group of the Mag 7 (including MSFT, META and AMZN) UBS said that sentiment was a 5/10, with the bank’s analyst expecting some pull-forward offsetting soft demand, while creating tougher 2H compares with the consensus too optimistic. UBS, which has a $210 price target, reiterated its $210 price target (Neutral) warnings that although the rich valuation remains a perennial overhang, sentiment is more cautious given the ongoing tariff and market share headwinds. The bottom line: with the mild short bias ahead of the print, there was a decent chance for a tactical bounce due to pull-ins, but probably not enough to alleviate the ongoing concerns.

And sure enough, 30 minutes after AMZN disappointed with lackluster AWS profit margins and a soft operating profit forecast, it would be 2 for 2 for the bears, with AAPL stock sliding on disappointing China sales even as tariff fears sent iPhone purchases across the world into overdrive. Here are the details:

  • Adjusted EPS $1.65 vs. $1.53 y/y, beating estimate $1.62
  • Total revenue $95.36 billion, +5.1% y/y, beating estimate $94.59 billion
  • Products revenue $68.71 billion, +2.7% y/y, beating estimate $67.84 billion
    • IPhone revenue $46.84 billion, +1.9% y/y, beating estimate $45.94 billion
    • Mac revenue $7.95 billion, +6.7% y/y, beating estimate $7.75 billion
    • IPad revenue $6.40 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $6.12 billion
    • Wearables, home and accessories $7.52 billion, -4.9% y/y, missing estimate $8.05 billion
  • Service revenue $26.65 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimates if $26.72 billion – this was the first red flag.

The second, and even bigger, red flag was the usual suspect: China, where revenues unexpectedly slumped, sliding 2.3%, while Wall Street was expecting a mid-single digit growth

  • Greater China rev. $16.00 billion, -2.3% y/y, missing estimates of $16.83 billion

Going down the line:

  • Total operating expenses $15.28 billion, +6.3% y/y, higher than estimate $15.17 billion
  • Gross margin $44.87 billion, +6.1% y/y, higher than estimate $44.58 billion
  • Cash and cash equivalents $28.16 billion, -14% y/y, missing estimates of $32.73 billion
  • Cost of sales $50.49 billion, +4.1% y/y, higher than estimate $50.23 billion

And so on:

Looking at a breakdown of sales by product category it was a generally solid report, although that was to be expected as a result of pulled forward demand for iPhones ahead of tariffs which would likely push prices sharply higher. Here are the details: .

  • IPhone revenue $46.84 billion, +1.9% y/y, beating estimates $45.94 billion but much of this was due to pulled forward sales ahead of tariffs
  • Mac revenue $7.95 billion, +6.7% y/y, beating estimates of $7.75 billion, same logic here
  • IPad revenue $6.40 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimates of $6.12 billion
  • Wearables, home and accessories $7.52 billion, -4.9% y/y, big miss to estimate $8.05 billion

Bottom line, while most segments came in stronger than expected, much of this will likely reverse in Q3 when tariffs push prices higher (because tariffs are inflationary right), meanwhile, Apple’s wearables segment (where one can find the Vision Pro disaster) remains a big disappointment, and the new low-end AirPods and hearing features for the AirPods Pro apparently did not draw much interest.

Here is the full revenue breakdown by product:

But if iPhone sales was solid (if transitory) the devastation that is China sales was catastrophic: contrary to expectations for a modest rebound, as China sales declined for a seventh consecutive quarter, down 2.3%, and printing at only $16BN, below the $16.9BN estimate.The rest of the world saw growth, modest in the Americas at 8.2%, and stronger in Japan and APAC, while Europe barely grew.

And in dollar terms:

Needless to say, China continues to be a very weak spot for Apple and the company hasn’t done much to push new products, pricing and initiatives in that market — or other emerging areas — to offset the issues.  The weakness there, which Apple will try to explain away in its conference call, is because of a combination of nationalism and interest in local products, whose designs are getting better. The local players are also trying new things like foldables while Apple continues to use the same design it rolled out five years ago. Oh, and Trump’s trade war which is getting worse by the day, isn’t helping.

The result: revenues declining now for an unprecedented 7 quarters!

There was more: Service revenue, which for many years was the only golden goose left in AAPL’s roster, is starting to sputter, and even though it rose to a new record $26.65 billion, this missed estimates of $26.72 billion and the growth rate was the lowest in two years.

The company has been contending with multiple challenges, beyond just the looming tariffs. Apple is playing catch-up in artificial intelligence, forcing it to shuffle management in recent weeks. It’s also under mounting regulatory pressure in the EU and its home country. On Wednesday, a federal judge demanded that the company open up its App Store to third-party payment options and stop charging commissions on outside purchases.

But tariffs remain one of the biggest question marks. Though Apple is likely to sidestep the 145% China levy that the administration originally proposed, new tariffs on electronics are still coming. The turmoil threatens to upend the company’s supply chain and potentially force it to raise prices. Already, Apple is looking to make more of its US-bound iPhones in India rather than China. Ironically, it was tariffs that helped the company revenues beat estimates as customers flooded Apple retail stores to buy new iPhones and other products out of fear that price hikes were coming.

In the press release, CEO Tim Cook tried hard to stay positive, but failed.

“Today Apple is reporting strong quarterly results, including double-digit growth in Services,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We were happy to welcome iPhone 16e to our lineup, and to introduce powerful new Macs and iPads that take advantage of the extraordinary capabilities of Apple silicon. And we were proud to announce that we’ve cut our carbon emissions by 60 percent over the past decade.”

The bigger problem is what he said on the conference call, where it said that he hadn’t seen excess pull forward demand in Q1 (it did)…

  • COOK: DIDN’T SEE EXTRA DEMAND IN MARCH QUARTER ON TARIFFS

…  and pretended not to know what the tariff impact will be:

  • COOK: NOT SURE WHAT TARIFF IMPACT WILL BE AFTER JUNE QUARTER

Trump’s tariff policy may be unclear to Cook, but what is clear to everyone, is that growth for AAPL is slowing fast:

  • *APPLE CFO: Q3 REVENUE TO GROW LOW TO MID-SINGLE DIGITS YOY

Which was the same guidance as the current quarter, and the market is starting to realize Cook isn’t sandbagging… instead the debate what is the right multiple on a company that has now officially flatlined. To be sure the kneejerk reaction was not happy, with AAPL stocks sliding about 3% after hours, the second consecutive quarter in which the market punished AAPL earnings, to just above $206 after closing today at the highest price since Trump’s Liberation Day.

Not even the news that the iPhone maker authorized a new $100 billion stock buyback and boosted its quarterly dividend 4% to 26 cents a share, was enough to prop up the stock.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 17:42

Walmart Increases Support For USA-Made Products

Walmart Increases Support For USA-Made Products

At a time when American consumers are increasingly interested in what products are actually “Made in the USA“—as evidenced by a recent report showing a surge in related internet searches—the nation’s largest retailer announced plans this week to boost its support for American-made goods through new initiatives.

Walmart has launched a new initiative called “Grow with US,” offering tools and support to small businesses, especially those producing American-made goods. The program is designed to strengthen the U.S. economy, which is largely driven by small businesses. 

“We’re unveiling Grow with US, a new program designed to provide U.S. small businesses with the training, mentorship and resources they need to grow with Walmart,” Walmart’s U.S. CEO and president, John Furner, wrote in a press release.

The CEO pointed out that over 60% of Walmart’s U.S. suppliers are small businesses. With the ongoing trade war with China, domestic sourcing for the mega-retailer might increase. Currently, the Trump administration has 145% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the U.S. 

“More than 40 years ago, Mr. Sam set a priority that still drives us today: supporting American-made products and the small businesses behind them. Simply put, we want small businesses to work with Walmart, but we know getting started can feel complex,” the CEO said. 

At the start of March, Furner announced a new commitment: “First, we’re announcing a new commitment: over the next ten years, Walmart will spend an additional $350 billion on items made, grown or assembled in the U.S. We estimate that this spend will support more than 750,000 new American jobs.” 

Walmart’s expanded commitment to America’s thousands of small businesses offering domestically produced goods is fantastic news as the Trump administration works to restore the nation’s manufacturing base via a trade war with China to re-shore critical supply chains that will be needed before the 2030s kick-off. 

In line with Walmart’s commitment to “Made in the USA,” we’re proud to launch a new partnership this Friday with the Beef Initiative. The goal is to connect consumers with mom-and-pop ranchers producing clean, locally sourced beef that aligns with the “Make America Healthy Again” protocols. This grassroots effort aims to help rebuild America’s mom-and-pop ranchers and farmers one beef cut at a time: Shop Clean Beef.

Let’s remember that none of this would have been possible without President Trump’s relentless push to reshore supply chains and rebuild America’s hallowed manufacturing core. There will be plenty of opportunities ahead—right here at home.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/01/2025 – 17:20