Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Sectarian fighting in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana left dozens killed, and Israel is already looking to parlay that into a new excuse for military action against the Syrian government, with the idea that they need to “protect” the Druze minority militarily.

The Israeli military reported attacking the Damascus suburb of Sahnaya, and that they targeted an “extremist group” that was planning new attacks on the Druze. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz issued statements demanding the Syrian government take action to prevent further attacks on the Druze.

Details of the strike are still scant. Indeed, Syria’s Interior Ministry said they had yet to receive word that the Israeli attack even took place at all. Since Israel launches a large number of attacks inside Syria regularly, it’s not necessarily improbable that they launched one on Sahnaya, but it appears not to have been particularly large.

Israeli Army chief Eyal Zamir has threatened to carry out attacks across Syria if the attacks on the Druze don’t stop, and said that he has ordered his staff to prepare for targets in Syria to that end.

By lining up Druze youth and shaving their mustaches, Jolani’s forces didn’t just humiliate, they struck symbols. For the Druze, it’s religious.

But among Kurds, the mustache is more than pride: it’s ancestry, masculinity, defiance. It links the living to the martyred. This was… pic.twitter.com/9xE2ELVL52

— Karim Franceschi (@karimfranceschi) May 1, 2025

Though the HTS has already promised investigations into what happened Tuesday in the Druze community in Jaramana, it’s not clear Israeli threats will mean much at any rate, since Israel is already actively attacking Syria at any rate, and this is just the latest pretext for continuing that.

Also, using the Druze as an excuse isn’t even new, it’s more being revived. In early March, a smaller clash in Jaramana led to Israel similarly vowing to protect the Druze, imposing a ban on all Syrian military assets south of Damascus, and offering to give Syrian Druze in the newly occupied parts of Syria “work permits” to go into Israel to work, an offer that was later rescinded.

Jolani’s HTS regime rounds up #Druze in #Sahnaya, beating and accusing them of being fighters, echoing tactics used in Alawite massacres, where civilians were labeled ‘Assad remnants’ #Syria pic.twitter.com/8PjmyRpw4g

— HK (@HKX37) April 30, 2025

Israeli Druze are going along with this, carrying out a demonstration near Acre which Israeli police declared “illegal“. Druze make up about 2% of Israel’s population, and about 3%-4% of Syria’s population, centered mainly on the Suwayda Governorate.

Tuesday into Wednesday gunbattles were fueled by an audio clip which went viral online. The audio was of someone insulting the Muslim Prophet Muhammed, and was purported to be a Syrian Druze person speaking. It has not been verified that was actually the origin.

ISIS fighters have been able to join the New Syrian General Security forces, it seems.

Many of the fighters in Sadnaya and other suburbs of Damascus yesterday had accents from Deir ez-Zor, pronouncing the letter “kaf” as “cha”. The word kabir becomes chabir. This does not mean… https://t.co/ADGEFxE0aE

— Joshua Landis (@joshua_landis) May 1, 2025

Indeed, many people are speculating this was an effort at “incitement” against the Druze minority in Syria, and it certainly seems to have worked, at least for a time.

Syria’s Islamist government has promised to investigate this possibility, and some are suggesting it may be an external effort to fuel unrest within Syria.

Ahead of Amazon’s earnings, and following two blowout results from the first two giga-cap companies MSFT and META, UBS said that the “fast money seems to be short Amazon into the quarter on AWS and North America sales growth, with no upward revisions on the print.” Meanwhile, the longer duration money “continues to like the story around AWS reacceleration, potential EBIT upside to Street, compelling valuation and potential AI theme around core ecommerce.” In short, there was a tension between the short-term traders and long-term HODLers.

Judging by the kneejerk reaction to Q1 earnings just released, the short-termers were right, with the stock dumping after reporting mixed Q1 earnings but it was the guidance that was really disappointing. 

Here are the details:

• EPS $1.59 vs. $1.86 q/q, beating estimate $1.36

• Net sales $155.67 billion, +8.6% y/y, beating estimates of $155.16 billion

  • Online stores net sales $57.41 billion, +5% y/y, beating estimates of $56.85 billion

  • Physical Stores net sales $5.53 billion, +6.4% y/y, beating estimates of $5.41 billion

  • Third-Party Seller Services net sales $36.51 billion, +5.5% y/y, missing estimates of  $36.98 billion

    • Subscription Services net sales $11.72 billion, +9.3% y/y, beating estimates of $11.65 billion

  • North America net sales $92.89 billion, +7.6% y/y, beating estimate $92.63 billion

  • International net sales $33.51 billion, +4.9% y/y, beating estimate $33.07 billion

  • Third-party seller services net sales excluding F/X +7% vs. +16% y/y, beating estimate +6.92%

    • Subscription services net sales excluding F/X +11% vs. +11% y/y, beating estimate +8.86%

So far so good (with some exceptions).

But what first caught the market’s attention first was Amazon’s AWS revenue, which came in just below estimates:

• Amazon Web Service net sales $29.27 billion, +17% y/y, missing estimates $29.36 billion

• Amazon Web Services net sales excluding F/X +17% vs. +17% y/y, also missing estimates +17.2%

Turning to operating profits, here the results were uniformly solid:

• AWS operating profit 39.45%, up sequentially from 36.83% and smashing estimates of 35.25%

• Operating income $18.41 billion, +20% y/y, beating estimate $17.51 billion

  • Operating margin 11.8% vs. 10.7% y/y, beating estimate 11.2%

  • North America operating margin +6.3% vs. +5.8% y/y, missing estimate +6.65%

  • International operating margin 3% vs. 2.8% y/y, beating estimate 2.96%

As for fulfillment expenses, these came in slightly above estimates, while the seller unit mix was slightly worse than expected. These will likely rise quite a bit in a tariff regime:

• Fulfillment expense $24.59 billion, +10% y/y, higher than estimate $23.78 billion

• Seller unit mix 61% vs. 61% y/y, worse than estimate 61.8%

Of the above, the most notable highlight – as per our preview – was AWS which grew revenue by 17% to $29.27BN, just below the sellside estimate of $29.36BN, and the first notable slowdown in the topline in two years.

Still, if revenue growth for AWS was a bit light, the record 39.5% margin more than offset it, beating estimates of 35.35%. Elsewhere, North American profit rose to $5.84 billion, resulting in a profit of 6.29%, if below the estimate of 6.65%. Meanwhile, international margins rose to 3.30% from 3.03%.

As a result of the jump in AWS profits, Amazon’s consolidated operating margin continued to grow impressively and in Q1 grew for a 4th consecutive quarter to a new all time high of 11.8%.

However, while the above data was mixed if generally solid, it was the company’s guidance that led to an after hours drop in the stock; that’s because the company projected profit and revenue in the current quarter both of which were seen as coming in soft vs Wall Street expectations:

• Sees net sales $159.0 billion to $164.0 billion, in line with the estimate of $161.4 billion

• Sees operating income $13.0 billion to $17.50 billion, below the estimate $17.82 billion, vs $14.7 billion in Q2 2024.

• Guidance sees impact of about 10 basis points from FX

If accurate, that would mean that after revenue grew at the slowest pace since 2022 in Q1, the outlook sees revenue growth post a modest improvement, rising just over 9% in Q2.

But again, it was the subpar operating income forecast that was the big disappointment.

In response to the soft guidance and the disappointing AWS revenue growth, the stock initially pumped but then dumped…

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Despite the media hysteria, Trump’s counterrevolution remains on course.

Its ultimate fate will probably rest with the state of the economy by the November 2026 midterm elections. 

But its success also hinges on accomplishing what is right and long overdue—and then making such reforms quietly, compassionately, and methodically.

No country can long endure without sovereignty and security—or with 10 to 12 million illegal immigrants crossing the border and half a million criminal foreign nationals roaming freely.

The prior administration found that it was easy to destroy the border and welcome the influx. But it is far harder for its successor to restore security, find those who broke the law, and insist on legal-only immigration. Trump is on the right side of all these issues and making substantial progress.

Everyone knew that a $2 trillion budget deficit, a $37 trillion national debt, and a $1.2 trillion trade deficit in goods were ultimately unsustainable.

Yet all prior politicians of the 21st century winced at the mere thought of reducing debts and deficits, given that it proved much easier just to print and spread around federal money. As long as the Trump administration dutifully cuts the budget, sends its regrets to displaced federal employees, seeks to expand private sector reemployment, and quietly presses ahead, it retains the moral high ground.

The elite universities have long hidden things from the American people that otherwise would have lost them all public support.

They deliberately sought to neuter Supreme Court rulings banning race-based preferences by stealthily continuing their often-segregated policies on campuses, from admissions and hiring to dorms and graduations.

They have taken billions of dollars from autocracies, such as communist China and Qatar. And they have partnered abroad with their foreign illiberal institutions and then disguised their quid pro quo subservience.

These supposedly prestigious universities have previously made no real effort either to stop or even hide their own campus epidemics of anti-Semitism.

They have spiked their tuition and costs higher than the annual rate of inflation, assured that the tottering $1.7 trillion guaranteed student loan portfolio would always send them guaranteed cash flows.

They have gouged taxpayers by charging exorbitant surcharges on federal grants from 40 to 60 percent. And they make no effort to offer students intellectual, ideological, or political diversity.

So, even our most prestigious universities seem to have no real moral compass. Accordingly, as long as Trump retains the high ground, the public, too, will demand either reform in higher education or a cessation of federal support to it.

The economy remains strong, but its ultimate health depends on reaching a trade deal with a handful of nations that account for our $1.2 trillion trade deficit in goods: China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, the Southeast Asian trade bloc, and Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.

These nations all know that their tariffs are not symmetrical. But our trade partners will not willingly change. They apparently, but wrongly, believe that the U.S. either welcomes its trade deficits, naively thinks they’re irrelevant, or is too wedded to libertarian trade ideology to demand accountability.

So, too, on trade, the Trump administration is in the right.

Its only challenge is to avoid envisioning tariffs as a new, get-rich source of massive revenue. Data does not support the idea of such large tariff incomes.

The American people signed on for symmetry, fairness, and reciprocity in trade, not tariffing those who run deficits with us or seeing high tariffs as a cash cow to fund our out-of-control government.

Enraged Democrats still offer no substantial alternatives to the Trump agenda.

There are no shadow-government Democratic leaders with new policy initiatives. They flee from the Biden record on the border, the prior massive deficits and inflation, the disaster in Afghanistan, two theater-wide wars that broke out on Biden’s watch, and the shameless conspiracy to hide the prior president’s increasing dementia.

Instead, the Left has descended into thinly veiled threats of organized disruption in the streets. It embraces potty-mouth public profanity, profane and unhinged videos, nihilistic filibusters, congressional outbursts, and increasingly dangerous threats to the persons of Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

All that frenzy is not a sign that the Trump counterrevolution is failing. It is good evidence that it is advancing forward, and its ethically bankrupt opposition has no idea how, or whether even, to stop it.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Dramatic footage shows agents with US Customs and Border Protection Air and Marine Operations halting an attempt by human traffickers to smuggle a boat full of illegals into the country earlier this week.

The video posted to X shows the moment the agents rammed into the boat in an incident off the coast of California.

Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks stated that the CBP was alerted by the Mexican Navy that the vessel had refused to stop for them and the U.S. Coast Guard in a previous encounter.

USBP and CBP Air & Marine Operations (AMO) stopped two suspected smugglers in the open waters of San Diego, CA, after receiving reports from the Mexican Navy about a vessel with two individuals that failed to stop for them and the U.S. Coast Guard a few days prior. Law… pic.twitter.com/tgLXqOh11a

— Chief Michael W. Banks (@USBPChief) April 28, 2025

Banks noted that AMO agents attempted to stop the boat near the San Diego coastline, but the driver refused to heave, forcing the escalated action.

The agents rammed the boat and disabled it, allowing them to detain two alleged human smugglers.

“Even in the open ocean, the border has a line- and we will defend it,” Banks urged.

Last week, Banks revealed that another vessel was intercepted carrying 19 illegal aliens, three of whom are thought to be traffickers.

U.S. Border Patrol and the U.S. Coastguard intercepted a human smuggling attempt just off the coast near Oceanside, CA. The leisure vessel was carrying 19 illegal aliens, 3 of which were smugglers. The smugglers now face felony charges for alien smuggling (8USC1324), while the… pic.twitter.com/E1seXLjEFi

— Chief Michael W. Banks (@USBPChief) April 25, 2025

Such incursions are increasing in frequency now the land borders have been completely locked down by the Trump administration.

New US Border Stats

– 99.99% decrease in so called getaways
– Illegal border encounters are now down 95%
– Trump administration has deported roughly 139,000 people
– Under Biden, border patrol officials dealt with up to 15,000 crossings per day
– Under Trump, Homan said that… pic.twitter.com/VYmeTNwXfL

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 30, 2025

JUST RELEASED: 99.9% at the Border. Best number ever recorded. 3 people got in, versus hundreds of thousands in last Administration. There has NEVER been such a difference before. Congratulations America!

From Donald Trump Truth Social 04/27/25 08:57 AM

— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) April 27, 2025

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

The Kremlin has confirmed Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the “Victory Day” celebrations in Moscow on May 9, illustrating the close strategic partnership between the two countries, also at a moment that Ukraine is alleging the presence of Chinese fighters engaged in the conflict.

“We are waiting for the leader of China,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters this week. “There will be a separate visit by President Xi, to which we attach great importance and are preparing.”

This year’s commemoration of the end of WW2 and major national Russian holiday will mark the 80th anniversary, and President Putin last week declared a unilateral 3-day truce in Ukraine for May 8-11. 

Ukraine has called it an attempt at manipulation and questioned why Russia doesn’t just declare a thirty-day ceasefire starting immediately. It’s anything but clear whether Ukraine plans to reciprocate a 3-day ceasefire. 

While there’s as yet no evidence of official Chinese military involvement in Ukraine operations, the past week has seen Moscow and Pyongyang confirm the presence of North Korean troops in the conflict – specifically in action to liberate Kursk region.

However, there will be sizeable Chinese military representation at the traditional military parade through Red Square for Victory day. China has of course been a key BRICS economic lifeline for Moscow throughout the war, whether via Russian oil purchases or sending dual use military-industrial parts.

Chinese troops rehearsing May 9 parade in Moscow in 2025. It were American, British, French and Polish troops back in 2010. pic.twitter.com/ucGp27x2bl

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) May 1, 2025

Earlier this week Ukraine’s President Zelensky actually hinted that Victory Day events, particularly in Moscow, could come under attack.

“We… are choosing exactly those painful points of Russia that will most of all push Moscow to diplomacy. They must take clear steps to end the war, and we insist that the first step should be an unconditional and complete cease-fire. Russia should do it,” Zelensky began in a Tuesday evening message. 

“Now they are worried that their parade is in question, and they are rightly worried. But they should be concerned that this war is still going on. They must end the war,” Zelensky said.

This year’s celebrations could be somewhat on edge, given drones out of Ukraine has been traveling further and further, doing damage to oil and gas facilities, military bases, and at times city neighborhoods.

The Kremlin has largely shrugged this off, and the threat was somewhat indirect, but has highlighted that Zelensky is making terroristic threats to potentially attack a civic event in the heart of the capital. Lately there’s been assassination bombings targeting top Russian generals, as well as long-range drone attacks which have reached the outskirts of Moscow. 

Likely the Russian defense and security services will bulk up anti-air systems in an around Moscow for Victory Day events. Officials from various countries and especially Russia-friendly nations are expected to be present.

Now former Kohl’s CEO Ashley Buchanan was abruptly fired after an internal investigation revealed he steered the company into a multimillion-dollar deal involving a vendor tied to a former romantic partner, according to the Wall Street Journal, who first broke the story.

Buchanan was hired in November 2024 and became CEO effective January 15, 2025. 

Michael J. Bender, Kohl’s Board Chair, said at the time: “We know he will be a great leader for Kohl’s and will bring a new perspective in our next chapter.” That chapter barely lasted 4 months. 

He “had instructed the retailer to enter into a ‘highly unusual’ business deal involving a woman with whom he has had a romantic relationship,” the Journal wrote.

The company’s board found Buchanan failed to disclose the relationship and violated the company’s code of conduct, according to a regulatory filing.

The vendor, unnamed in filings, was part of a consulting team awarded a lucrative contract. Sources identified her as Chandra Holt, a former Walmart and Bed Bath & Beyond executive whom Buchanan met years earlier while both worked at Walmart. Holt now runs Incredibrew, a vitamin-infused coffee startup.

The two have a history:

The two retail veterans have known each other for years. Buchanan was the Sam’s Club chief merchandising officer and Holt held several positions at the Walmart chain, including general merchandise manager of grocery and the chief operating officer of its website.

They both further rose through the ranks at Walmart before leaving around the same time for other positions at Texas-based retailers. Buchanan left in early 2020 to become CEO of Michaels. Holt left in 2021 to become CEO of Conn’s HomePlus and later Bed Bath and Beyond.

The Journal wrote that Buchanan, who became Kohl’s CEO in November 2024 after leading Michaels, will forfeit equity awards and repay a prorated portion of a $2.5 million signing bonus.

Neither he nor Holt responded to requests for comment. Kohl’s appointed Chairman Michael Bender as interim CEO—the chain’s fourth chief in three years—as it grapples with a 4% sales drop and a likely quarterly loss.

Eli Lilly & Co. shares fell in premarket trading in New York after the company slashed its full-year profit outlook, citing increased research and development expenses, despite posting first-quarter revenue and earnings that beat analysts’ expectations, driven by strong demand for its anti-obesity drug, Mounjaro.

Goldman analysts, including Asad Haider, provided clients with a first take on Lilly’s first-quarter earnings, indicating that 1Q25 results “slightly exceeded expectations.” 

LLY’s 1Q25 earnings slightly exceeded expectations, where, encouragingly, the tirzepatide franchise (Zepbound + Mounjaro) came in at $6.15bn ahead of GS/Visible Alpha Consensus Data ($6bn), reflecting continued strong demand, partially offset by lower realized prices. We note that recent IQVIA data shows Zepbound momentum continuing into April. Performance was a bit uneven amongst other portfolio items, with Jardiance (which included a one time benefit of $370mn) and Ebglyss outperforming, while Jaypirca, Omvoh and Emgality fell short of expectations.

Exhibits 1 and 2 provide more color on earnings results:

Actual vs. GS/Consensus- Income Statement and Margins

Actual vs. GS/Consensus- Income Statement and Margins

Overshadowing the first-quarter print was Lilly’s move to slash its full-year earnings guidance due to charges related to a recent cancer treatment deal. 

Lilly noted in an earnings release that the existing tariff and trade environment was factored into updated guidance. However, it said the new guidance does not reflect any policy shifts, including pharmaceutical sector tariffs, that could impact business.

More color on the updated guidance via Goldman’s Haider: 

The 2025 EPS guidance cut (from $22.50- $24.00 to $20.78- $22.28) was entirely driven by the 1Q25 IPR&D charge of $1.57bn which translates to $1.72 on EPS

Haider maintained a “Buy” rating on Lilly with a 12-month price target of $888. 

Shares fell 6% in premarket trading as the guidance cut took center stage, overshadowing an otherwise solid first quarter. Despite the decline, the stock remains just below Goldman’s 12-month price target and not far off from record highs. 

Adding to the pressure, CVS Health announced a deal to expand access to rival Novo Nordisk’s anti-obesity drug, which may have further weighed on Lilly’s stock sentiment ahead of the cash market. 

Earlier, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks provided CNBC with an update about tariffs: “I think that actually the threat of tariffs is already bringing back critical supply chains into important industries, chips and pharma,” adding, “So do we need to enact [tariffs?] I’m not so sure.”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

This is no time for traditional economic and market methods of poring over old data. Q1 US GDP, -0.3% q-o-q annualized, tells us nothing about what will happen given its all-over-the-place components driven by preparations for a trade war now underway. Nowcasts for Q2 GDP are already showing it back to around 2.4%, but that’s again with two months of the quarter to go and US retail inventories sitting at around 5-7 weeks, after which nobody knows what will happen as the upcoming Port of LA cargo totals are set to drop by around a third year on year.

GDP was negative because of only two components:

– Trade/Imports subtracted 4.83% on tariff frontrunning
– Government subtracted 0.25%, first negative govt “contribution” since 2022 pic.twitter.com/6Ng0qyQCZ5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2025

The only way to make any kind of forecast is to try to project what will happen in the bigger scheme of things. Or, to laugh at President Trump posting, ‘This isn’t my stock market’, because it’s going down, three months after claiming, ‘This is my stock market’, because it was going up, and presume there is no pattern to anything that’s going on.  Rather than indulge in the latter, which is easy, let’s try the former, which is hard.

In the trade war, the US Senate narrowly rejected an attempt to overturn Trump’s tariffs: we are stuck with them until he decides we aren’t. On which, Trump said he expects a great relationship with PM Carney, which may not bode well for Canada, as Alberta’s Premier laid down the law to the PM and flirted with the idea of independence. 

Moreover, the USTR says several trade deals are “close”, again: again, it’s Japan, South Korea, and India being name-dropped. If/when a first deal is signed, markets will have a clearer idea of what lies ahead: yet Trump just said he’s in no rush, and as we’ve laid out, what lies ahead likely involves a new bloc vs China that would resolve many uncertainties while creating vast new ones.

Anyone thinking better US-China trade ties are on the cards too, which apparently includes the US President in his latest comments, isn’t paying much attention (including to the headline writers not noting that he said this deal would be “on our terms” and “fair”). Rather, at the very least, escalation to deescalate is underway. 

Congress just reintroduced a bipartisan SHIPS bill to increase US shipbuilding, targeting 250 commercial vessels over the next decade, which includes the dropped USTR port fee for non-Chinese firms ordering China-built ships; subsidies for US shipbuilders; preferential treatment for US cargo; and requiring a rising % of US imports from China be transported on US-built ships. All this will have a disruptive effect on global trade we’ve already spelled out; yet the emergence of such legislation was predictable to those who read maritime history rather than just Bloomberg.

Moreover, China, whose PMI data yesterday showed trade war impact, was also reported to be months away from running out of copper: it’s not just the West that is reliant on key imports: and the US knows what they are and where they get them from.

As such, on the geopolitical front –which is joined at the hip to trade– things are also moving. 

The US and Ukraine signed the 50/50 minerals investment deal. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.” Kyiv hopes the US may also increase defence aid, which would be useful given Europe and the UK just admitted they can’t find enough troops for the peacekeeping contribution they’ll have to make.

Many decrying Trump trying a statecraft Noxin (reverse Nixon) will cheer a US hard line vs Russia. However, the alternative means economic statecraft against Moscow: Senator Graham is pushing legislation to impose 500% secondary tariffs on anyone who buys Russian energy, which would have a destabilising impact on energy markets. Would those decriers call for actual war but not economic warfare, “because markets”? Would Russia buckle and strike peace and Noxin deals?

The troika of Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump, Jr. make clear they don’t want war with Iran even if the terms of a deal –no more uranium enrichment– seem unreachable, and Israel remains implacable in its opposition to a can-kicking exercise that sees it carry the realpolitik can if Iran then builds a nuke. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, trying to please the US, said that it will keep pumping oil even as prices decline. 

On two related fronts we have either a sustained bear market in oil or a rapid geopolitical move higher. Interestingly, and relatedly, the US Koch brothers just exited energy trading in what is being described as a “retreat from speculation.” NB that’s exactly what economic statecraft wants to see, as commodities, not “because markets”, are going to be a key focus of it ahead.

Moreover, things are moving in the financial system too, and not just in terms of bond yields grinding lower in DM but moving higher in EM like Argentina and Brazil. Yesterday, the US Treasury released a report on dollar stablecoin usage with huge implications for the structure of markets, and which benefits the US over others. They talk of higher deposit rates, a huge inflow into US T-bills, and much more – and most of it benefitting the US at the expense of others. Does that make it more or less likely to happen ahead? I’m asking for a friend who usually focuses on GDP.

In short, we have sharply binary geopolitical outcomes ahead and either: sustained trade chaos, with one set of implications for the world economy; or a US retreat, with another set of implications (and second, third, nth order effects the people who want to see it happen don’t grasp at all); or a clear global bifurcation between the US and China across still-variable geography and asset classes. 

Please put that all into your GDP model and tell me what it says. 

As House Republicans race to pass President Trump’s sweeping domestic policy package, serious internal divisions remain unresolved, casting doubt over whether the party can meet its own ambitious deadlines.

Speaker Mike Johnson has set a tight three-week window to pass a massive reconciliation bill intended to enact the core of Trump’s economic agenda. Yet as of May 1, lawmakers remain deadlocked on several of the package’s most contentious provisions, from tax policy to cuts in federal safety-net programs.

“We’re working through each of the final issues,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Punchbowl News, acknowledging that the package is “coming down the wire” even as four committees have already advanced their legislative proposals. Behind the scenes, however, critical components of the legislation remain in flux.

Major Tax Questions Still Unanswered

Nowhere is the uncertainty more apparent than in the House Ways and Means Committee, where the $4.5 trillion tax section of the package remains in limbo. A formal markup has not been scheduled, though May 8 is being discussed as a target date, Punchbowl reports.

One of the most intractable issues is the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. Several Republican lawmakers from high-tax states, especially New York, are pressing for the $10,000 cap to be lifted or substantially increased. Speaker Johnson met Wednesday with members of the SALT Caucus to gather “final feedback” before a new cap is finalized.

But lawmakers involved in the talks described them as far from conclusive. “We’re still far away from being done,” said Representative Nick LaLota, Republican of New York. Proposals to raise the cap to $25,000 have failed to unify the group, and disagreements persist over how to address the so-called marriage penalty, which currently imposes the same cap on joint filers as on single taxpayers.

For GOP reps like LaLota and Mike Lawler, also of New York, resolving the SALT issue is politically non-negotiable.

Medicaid Cuts Draw Moderate Resistance

Similar discord surrounds proposed Medicaid changes. Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee continue to deliberate over how to achieve $880 billion in savings, a task that has sparked pushback from centrist members concerned about the scale of potential cuts.

Representative Juan Ciscomani of Arizona said talks were “making progress” following a meeting with Committee Chair Brett Guthrie. Still, disagreements remain, particularly over proposals to impose per capita caps on Medicaid spending – a sticking point for members like Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who supports no more than $500 billion in total reductions.

“For them to do any more,” Mr. Bacon said, “they’re going to have to prove it doesn’t hurt people’s health care or hospitals.”

Energy and Commerce is scheduled to hold a markup on May 7, with Republicans on the panel meeting again Thursday morning to try to bridge remaining divides.

Food Stamp Reform in Flux

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has also emerged as a flashpoint. The House Agriculture Committee is under pressure to find $230 billion in savings but has yet to finalize a plan.

Chair Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania is opposed to cutting benefits and instead favors a cost-sharing model that would shift more of the financial burden to states. However, that idea has drawn criticism from both the White House and within the Republican conference.

Mr. Bacon has suggested a simpler solution: scale back the required savings. “They need to lower the $230 [billion] to $100 [billion],” he said.

Mr. Thompson has signaled that he does not want to see changes to the Thrifty Food Plan, a government benchmark for SNAP benefit levels. But the path forward remains unclear as Republicans weigh political risks and the Trump administration awaits feedback on key proposals.

Clock’s ticking guys…

Trump administration officials have indicated they want Congress to complete the reconciliation process by July 4. Yet with major pieces of the package still unresolved, that deadline appears increasingly difficult to meet.

The current impasse reflects a broader challenge facing House Republicans: how to reconcile ideological differences within their own ranks while moving forward on a sprawling policy package. Each committee’s internal debate has created ripple effects, complicating the broader legislative effort.

The coming weeks will test whether the Republican leadership can align its members around the former president’s agenda – or whether the reconciliation effort will stall under the weight of unresolved conflicts.

Trump national security adviser Mike Walz and his deputy, Alex Wong, are out of a job in the White House following an incident in late march in which Waltz ‘inadvertently’ added The Atlantic‘s Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal chat which included discussions with top national security officials – and VP JD Vance – about plans for a military strike on Houthi targets in Yemem, CBS News  and Politico report (so we’re just waiting for the denial).

According to ‘multiple sources familiar with their departure,’ following the Signal snafu, Waltz admitted behind closed doors to the authenticity of Goldberg’s reporting – however he never offered to resign, and President Trump did not ask him to step down.

Wong, meanwhile, served in the first Trump administration as deputy special representative for North Korea, as well as deputy assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the State Department.

The Signal fiasco set off a firestorm of calls for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to resign…

Goldberg is still trying to blame Hegseth for everything, when Michael Waltz is the one responsible for the entire snafu.

Now why would that be? Why would Goldberg repeatedly attack a victim of the breach instead of HIS FRIEND WHO SECRETLY INVITED HIM IN?

It’s a real mystery. https://t.co/vjq9hO35P6

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) March 25, 2025

Among some 18 individuals listed as members of a Signal group that Goldberg was ‘inadvertently’ invited to included Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Vice President Vance, national security adviser Michael Waltz, Secretary of State is Marco Antonio Rubio, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

According to Politico, the White House has been discussing names for a replacement ‘for weeks,’ but ‘the plans to remove Waltz potentially as soon as this week gained steam in recent days.’

Were Waltz and Wong ‘Loomered‘?

When SignalGate exposed that Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg was added to a Trump admin group chat, I did some digging.

Alex Wong is Mike Waltz’s Deputy NatSec Advisor. He’s married to a DOJ attorney named Candace Chiu Wong who worked under Biden AND Obama.

You’re not hearing… pic.twitter.com/eTqOJElyV7

— Loomer Unleashed (@LoomerUnleashed) March 30, 2025

SCALP https://t.co/adHatO6Sgm

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) May 1, 2025

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