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The Cheap Foreign Labor Regime Blocking Agricultural Intelligence

The Cheap Foreign Labor Regime Blocking Agricultural Intelligence

Authored by RJ Hauman via American Intelligence,

I grew up in Camarillo, California: fertile soil, Mediterranean climate, strawberries, avocados, lemons, citrus, and family farms passed down through generations. The kind of place that sells itself, and does.

Read the city’s own description of its agricultural economy and you will find every word you would expect: rich agricultural legacy, farming passed down, agricultural education, sustainability, drip irrigation, precision sensors, AI-driven robotics, research partnerships, and a North American AgTech market projected to reach $16 billion by 2027.

Read it again and notice what is missing.

The workforce.

Not wages. Not labor. Not who picks the strawberries, cuts the lemons, or brings in the harvest. The fields produce. The technology advances. The legacy continues. The workers disappear.

Every agricultural economy has a legacy. The question is which part is being preserved. The fertile soil is a legacy. The family farms are a legacy. The harvest is a legacy. So is the labor model that brings it in. And across American agriculture, that model has for forty years depended heavily on foreign labor, illegal hiring, and a political class determined not to disturb either.

When a city brochure pairs “legacy” with AI robotics in the same breath, it is not just describing the future. It is making a quiet promise: the technology will advance, but the labor model will not.

America is preparing for the AI age everywhere except the place that feeds the country.

In Washington, the debate tends to revolve around foundation models, export controls, chips, data centers, defense contracts, and the ideological capture of Silicon Valley. Those fights matter. But the next frontier of artificial intelligence will not stay confined to server farms or federal procurement offices. It will also play out in fields, dairies, orchards, irrigation networks, greenhouses, and the rural labor markets that underpin America’s food supply.

That frontier is no longer theoretical. Autonomous tractors already plant, till, and spray without a driver. Computer-vision systems can scout crops plant by plant. Machine-learning models can optimize water, fertilizer, pest control, and yield down to the meter. Robotic harvesters can pick faster, cleaner, and longer than hand crews. Precision irrigation can be guided by satellite analytics. AI-assisted breeding can compress decades of plant selection into months.

The question is no longer whether American agriculture can automate. It is whether Washington will stop subsidizing the cheap labor model that makes automation a losing bet.

America should be leading this revolution. It builds the software, funds the research, trains the engineers, and talks constantly about technological dominance. Yet federal policy still props up an agricultural labor model built on cheap imported labor, illegal hiring, and guestworker expansion. That bargain has kept human labor cheaper than machines, delayed mechanization, and now risks leaving the United States on the sidelines of a revolution it should own.

This is not a speculative warning. It is already underway. Syngenta’s Cropwise platform now spans more than 70 million hectares across 30 countries. The World Economic Forum projects that AI-amplified digital agriculture could increase agricultural GDP in developing economies by more than $450 billion annually. The Netherlands, Israel, and Australia are moving quickly to capture that ground.

American firms built much of the underlying technology. American universities produced the foundational research. American workers could be trained to operate it.

But the United States will not lead unless it dismantles the cheap labor regime that has allowed agriculture to skip the last revolution while pretending it is ready for the next.

You cannot leapfrog to autonomous agriculture over an industry that has barely mechanized. Software runs on hardware. AI runs on physical capital. The autonomous tractor still requires the tractor. The computer-vision yield system still needs the machine it is guiding. The machine-learning dairy platform still depends on the milking robot it is reading from. Farms that have not mechanized cannot become intelligent by press release.

The capital does not move. The infrastructure does not get built. The workforce does not get trained. The frontier goes to whoever did the prior work first.

Why has American agriculture failed to do that work?

Not because of technology. The tools have been available for decades.

The answer is policy. Washington has spent forty years making cheap foreign labor cheaper than the machine.

The Twin Pillars of the Cheap Labor Regime

American agriculture runs on a labor system Washington built, tolerated, subsidized, and now refuses to dismantle. It rests on two pillars.

The first is illegal hiring. Federal surveys show that roughly 40 to 45 percent of crop farmworkers lack legal work authorization. In California, the share is closer to 60 percent. Another large portion are foreign nationals who entered illegally or came on a temporary basis. The U.S.-born legal workforce in the fields is the minority.

This is not a system failure. It is the system. And it has been propped up by both parties.

The second pillar is H-2A, the federal guestworker program designed in 1986 as a narrow tool for seasonal shortages. It has since grown into one of the largest labor pipelines in the immigration system.

The Department of Labor certified roughly 385,000 H-2A jobs in FY 2024, nearly an eightfold increase since 2005. The program remains uncapped by statute. Recent rulemaking is projected to transfer tens of billions in wage value over the next decade, in some cases lowering effective labor costs by several dollars per hour.

Washington is making imported labor cheaper at the exact moment it should be forcing capital toward machines.

These pillars are not separate problems. They are the same subsidy delivered through different channels, defended by the same interests, and sustaining the same method.

When enforcement targets illegal hiring, employers demand H-2A expansion. When H-2A reform is proposed, they revive amnesty proposals like the Farm Workforce Modernization Act, which would grant Certified Agricultural Worker status and eventual green cards to up to 2.1 million illegal alien farmworkers while simultaneously opening H-2A to year-round industries.

The lobby’s actual position is not legal labor or illegal labor. It is permanent access to cheap foreign labor by whatever channel Washington will tolerate.

Illegal hiring supplies the shadow workforce. H-2A provides the legal release valve. Amnesty converts one into the other while preserving the pipeline behind it.

This is not stagnation by accident. It is by design.

The result is a labor-intensive production model with little incentive to mechanize, little reason to invest in agricultural intelligence, and no pressure to train American workers to operate either.

That helps explain why the United States lags Northern Europe in robotic milking, Israel in precision irrigation, and Australia in autonomous platforms.

Those countries did not discover secret technologies unavailable to American farmers. They built the workforce and mechanized base the United States has chosen to avoid.

We chose decades of cheap, and often illegal, foreign labor instead.

The Myth of the Impossible Crop

Big Agriculture’s most persistent claim is that American farming cannot be mechanized. The crops are too delicate. The terrain too uneven. The seasons too unpredictable. The farms are too diverse. The margins are too thin. The labor is supposedly too specialized.

Some of these objections contain fragments of truth. None justify a permanent federal subsidy for cheap foreign labor.

The “impossible crop” argument collapses the moment policy forces capital to solve the problem.

Commercial cabbage harvesters have existed for decades. Autonomous systems are now being developed for uneven terrain. Apple harvesting robots can pick roughly 10,000 apples an hour, about 30 to 50 times human speed, with less bruising than human crews.

Harvest CROO’s strawberry robots replaced crews of 30 migrant pickers with a small team of engineers and technicians and reached commercial viability in 2025. Carbon Robotics’ LaserWeeder uses AI-guided precision lasers to eliminate up to 5,000 weeds a minute, replacing the work of a hand crew of 75 people. Monarch Tractor’s MK-V is a fully electric, driver-optional tractor now operating on hundreds of farms. Bear Flag Robotics, now a John Deere subsidiary, retrofits existing tractors for autonomous tillage at scale.

Even crops long considered unmechanizable are starting to be mechanized.

The constraint is not engineering. It is incentive. And when the incentive shifts, capital tends to follow.

Dale Hemminger, an upstate New York dairy farmer, installed his first milking robots in 2007 after immigration authorities arrested one of his workers. Before mechanization, his farm produced about 800,000 pounds of milk per worker per year. Today it produces 2.5 million. About a dozen workers manage a herd of more than 2,000 cows. They earn more than typical farmworkers and work shorter hours.

That is what one enforcement event did on one farm.

Now imagine that incentive applied across the entire sector.

Bracero Proved the Point

America has already run this experiment.

From 1942 to 1964, the Bracero program admitted more than 4.6 million Mexican guestworkers. At its peak, it brought in more workers annually than today’s entire H-2A system.

The same arguments were made then: crops would rot, Americans would not work, mechanization was not ready.

Congress and President Lyndon Johnson ended the Bracero program in 1964.

The result was not collapse. It was modernization.

Tomato harvesters, developed at the University of California with public funds, were commercially deployed within five years. California processing tomato yields rose 300 percent while labor requirements fell by more than 80 percent. Real wages for remaining domestic farmworkers rose substantially. Crop losses were short-lived and concentrated in the first two seasons. Total production soon exceeded pre-termination levels.

The lesson is straightforward.

The technology was already there. Modernization was obstructed by outdated policy.

That lesson applies directly today.

End the federal guarantee of imported labor. Mandate E-Verify. Phase down H-2A on a real timeline. Reject amnesty that converts the existing illegal workforce into a permanent labor base while expanding future inflows.

No carve-outs. No indefinite delays.

Transition should be statutory, not chaotic. Enforcement must be paired with date-certain phase-downs, mechanization credit, and accelerated expensing. The point is not to create a harvest shock. It is to deny agribusiness the one thing that has defeated every reform for forty years: indefinite delay. Put serious public investment behind mechanization and agricultural intelligence in tandem, on the model of the semiconductor and energy industrial policies of the past five years. Pair the phase-down with targeted USDA credit for mechanization, accelerated expensing for qualifying capital investments, shared-ownership equipment consortia that put commercial-grade robotics within reach of smaller farms, and scale-tiered timelines that give family operations more runway than consolidated agribusiness.

Capital should move toward modernization, not toward Capitol Hill.

The Constituency This Is For

The Right often talks about building a worker-centered coalition. Agriculture is where that idea could actually take shape.

It is composed of the small dairy operator competing against a contractor-driven megafarm that lobbies for both illegal labor and H-2A expansion. It harbors the rural mechanic who could be trained as a robotics technician on a precision orchard. It uplifts the recent graduate of a community college agronomy program who could work in autonomous-equipment maintenance, computer-vision crop scouting, or precision-irrigation management. It represents the American worker who lost the field job a generation ago and never got the engineering job that should have replaced it, because the engineering job was never built.

Cheap, and oftentimes illegal, foreign labor does not just displace today’s American worker. It prevents tomorrow’s worker from emerging.

It blocks the investment that would create better jobs. It keeps rural America trapped in a low-wage equilibrium, and then frames that outcome as a necessary tradeoff.

It is not.

The Sovereignty of Food

The global agricultural intelligence revolution will not wait for American policy to catch up. It is happening now, on Dutch dairies, Israeli irrigation networks, Australian autonomous platforms, and in the orchards and greenhouses of countries that did the prior work, built the prior infrastructure, and trained the prior workforce.

But it does not have to be this way. American startups are building the machines. The United States can deploy them at scale, or watch other countries integrate the technology American firms invented.

The AI age is not just about who builds the model. It is about who controls the systems the model governs.

A country that imports foreign labor to prop up its food system, neglects the machines that should replace it, and fails to train its own workforce is not leading. It is stepping aside.

If “America First” means anything in the AI age, it means that the commanding systems of national life are built, operated, and controlled by Americans. Food is one of those systems.

The United States has the advantages: land, capital, universities, manufacturers, and workers.

What it lacks is the political will to end the old bargain.

For forty years, Washington has kept imported labor cheaper than machines. That decision has lowered wages, slowed mechanization, weakened the rural workforce, and delayed the productivity gains other countries have already captured.

Now the next revolution is here.

The choice is straightforward: a preindustrial labor system sustained by outdated and poor policy, or an industrial strategy worthy of a sovereign nation.

We should end the cheap foreign labor regime. Mandate E-Verify. Phase out H-2A. Restore wage discipline. Invest in mechanization and agricultural intelligence at scale.

America cannot shape the future of food while importing a labor model of the past.

There is no third option.

Coming soon from NICE: Phasing Out H-2A: How to Force American Agriculture into the 21st Century. A national mechanization and agricultural intelligence initiative built for American workers and American farms. The full case for ending Big Agriculture’s cheap labor racket and forcing the modernization that should have come a generation ago.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 15:10

Exiled MAGA Dissidents Consult With Ron Paul On Iran War

Exiled MAGA Dissidents Consult With Ron Paul On Iran War

Authored by former Congressman Ron Paul

Last weekend my Institute for Peace and Prosperity hosted another conference here on the Texas Gulf Coast. Not only did we have a full house attending the conference – which is in a way the most important thing – but in this era of profound disappointment and disillusionment, we struck a note of optimism thankfully due to our wonderful line-up of speakers.

The main topic of the conference, titled “War is Back on the Menu,” was of course the disastrous decision by the Trump Administration to launch an unprovoked war against Iran – both last June and again on February 28th.

Trump’s former director of Counterterrorism at the Office of National Intelligence, Joe Kent, listens intently as Ron Paul offers thoughts on the Iran War & current crisis facing America in his home south of Houston, TX.

Professor Robert Pape from the University of Chicago offered a compelling blueprint to break free of some of the neocon chains that bind us to the Middle East to our own detriment. Let the states in the region manage their own security, he argued. It is not our job to be their policemen.

Very importantly, we were fortunate to have had as speakers two individuals who stood up for their principles when putting them aside for expediency – and personal gain – would have been so much easier.

Former US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene was, in her own words, “a General in the MAGA Army.” She dedicated her life and plenty of her own money to the cause of electing Donald Trump because she believed he would put America first, as he had promised. She watched that cause betrayed, first with the President’s support for tyrannical central bank digital currency and then with his refusal to release the Epstein files.

Finally, she explained, after he had dubbed her a “traitor” for disagreeing with him on these issues, constant death threats forced her to resign her seat in the House.

Source: MTG on X

She could have gone along to get along – as most do in Congress. Instead, she stood up for what was right.

Likewise Joe Kent, who was serving as director of Counterterrorism at the Office of National Intelligence, could have kept quiet as he watched another war being launched on a mountain of lies pushed by special interests. He was a highly decorated US combat veteran who held a Senate-confirmed position in the Administration.

That would have been a golden ticket to any number of future profitable opportunities if he “played his cards right.” Instead, he did what was right. He resigned, writing in a statement that the war was not justified and that it was being fought for Israeli rather than American interests.

As could be predicted, Joe suffered the same demonization that Marjorie suffered for standing up for his values and principles. Their courage in making this sacrifice for truth should inspire all of us. It should give us hope.

My words of encouragement were simple: we don’t need a majority to change things. A purposeful minority dedicated to the principles of peace and liberty can move mountains.

We must stay strong and, importantly, stick together and work together across all party and ideological lines. We must be the big coalition that refuses to sacrifice our principles just as Joe and Marjorie refused to sacrifice theirs.

We will be in Dulles, VA, on Labor Day weekend for our tenth annual DC conference. Mark your calendars and be a part of our movement!

* * *

Kent, who is a decorated Special Forces and CIA Ground Branch veteran, has responded to the media smear campaign that was triggered at the moment of his public resignation in protest of Trump launching another war of choice in the Middle East…

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 14:00

Unexploded Ordinance Accident Kills 14 IRGC Members: State Media

Unexploded Ordinance Accident Kills 14 IRGC Members: State Media

Trump’s operation Epic Fury saw a combined number of US-Israeli strikes in the many thousands unleashed on Iran. The common high estimates suggest over 13,000 strikes by the American side, and possibly 10,000 by the Israelis – which are staggering figures.

While the severe damage to Iranian cities, bases, missile sites, and infrastructure has been abundantly clear – the hidden reality is the apparently persistent danger of unexploded ordinance still littering the country. On Friday state media reported a mass casualty event involving Iranian military members due to unexploded bombs.

“An explosion of leftover bombs from strikes during the war against Iran killed 14 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranian media reports,” AFP reports based on state media.

Example of large unexploded bomb in Gaza, Getty Images

“A report by the Nour news website, believed to be close to Iran’s security, says the explosion happened near the northern city of Zanjan, which is northwest of Tehran,” AFP continues.

And notably, “It is the largest number of IRGC members reported to be killed since the ceasefire began on April 7,” it continues, describing that cluster bombs and ‘air mines’ which had been dropped during prior US and Israeli aids caused the deadly blasts.

The major blast could have been the result of an IRGC operation to recover the bombs, given that the last week has seen reports that the IRGC had recovered a fully intact GBU-57 Bunker Buster bomb.

While unconfirmed, one defense source said as follows:

The reported recovery by Iran of more than 15 unexploded American precision-guided munitions, including at least one fully intact GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, may prove to be one of the most strategically consequential intelligence gains in Tehran’s military history.

If confirmed, the transfer of these weapons to Iranian “technical and research units” for reverse engineering would transform a failed deep-strike campaign against hardened nuclear facilities into a long-term technology compromise for both Washington and Tel Aviv.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), through statements linked to the Imam Sajjad Corps in Hormozgan province and state-linked outlets including Press TV, IRNA, and Tasnim News, framed the recovered ordnance not as battlefield debris but as a strategic opportunity capable of accelerating deterrence, bunker survivability, and indigenous precision-strike development.

As for this new mass casualty event, another source adds the following further details: “The IRGC’s Ansar al-Mahdi unit in Zanjan said demolition teams had entered a contaminated area to identify and neutralize unexploded munitions left from recent airstrikes when the deadly explosion happened on Friday.”

Illustrative via Popular Mechanics 

The Friday incident strongly suggests there are other extreme danger zones, and given that thousands of bombs rained down all over Iran during the height of US-Israeli war, there could be more such deadly accidents to come.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 13:25

Trump Says Medicare Will Soon Cover Weight-Loss Drugs

Trump Says Medicare Will Soon Cover Weight-Loss Drugs

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced on May 1 that Medicare patients will soon be able to obtain coverage for weight-loss drugs for $50 per month.

Speaking at an event in Florida, Trump said the coverage for the weight-loss and diabetes medications will begin in July, referencing drugs that contain semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist.

“Today, I’m thrilled to announce that starting on July 1, we will also provide Medicare patients with the coverage for weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, Zepbound, Wegovy. Will be available for $50 a month,” he said.

In December, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a voluntary model known as Better Approaches to Lifestyle and Nutrition for Comprehensive Health to expand access to GLP-1 medications for weight management and metabolic health, allowing Medicare Part D plans and state Medicaid agencies to cover the drugs while negotiating lower prices.

The model features CMS negotiating directly with manufacturers for reduced net prices, out-of-pocket caps, standardized coverage criteria, and lifestyle support programs.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 12:50

US Coast Guard Offloads More Than $72 Million Worth Of Cocaine

US Coast Guard Offloads More Than $72 Million Worth Of Cocaine

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than $72 million worth of cocaine was offloaded by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) after it was seized in multiple operations.

A crew member aboard USCGC Escanaba carries a bale of cocaine during a drug offload at Port Everglades, Fla., on April 27, 2026. U.S. Coast Guard/Petty Officer 2nd Class Eric Rodriguez

On Monday, U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Escanaba’s crew offloaded roughly 7,050 pounds of cocaine valued at over $53 million at Port Everglades, Florida, according to an April 27 statement. The seizures were made following interdictions in the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific. In addition to Escanaba, other USCG assets and the Joint Interagency Task Force South were involved in the operations.

The crew’s achievements on this patrol reflect the very best of our service—courage, vigilance, and an unshakeable commitment to protecting the American people,” Escanaba Commander Nicholas Seniuk said.

“Every pound of narcotics kept off our streets represents lives changed, violence prevented, and communities made safer. We couldn’t be prouder of their extraordinary work.”

In an April 23 statement, USCG announced that its Cutter Resolute crew offloaded roughly 2,570 pounds of cocaine valued at more than $19.3 million at Base Miami Beach, Florida, and also transferred six individuals suspected of drug smuggling to authorities.

The seizures were the result of three interdictions in the Caribbean by the crews of USS Billings and Coast Guard Cutter Tahoma, together with other partners.

Combined, the two offloading events involved the seizure of 9,620 pounds of cocaine worth more than $72.3 million.

According to the USCG, more than 511,000 pounds of cocaine were seized last year, which is more than three times the service’s annual average. The agency has also sped up its counter-drug operations in the Eastern Pacific region through Operation Pacific Viper.

“Since launching this operation in early August, the Coast Guard has seized over 215,000 pounds of cocaine and apprehended 160 suspected narco-traffickers. The Coast Guard’s persistent operations and rapid response have denied criminal organizations billions in illicit revenue and prevented the flow of dangerous drugs into American communities,” USCG said.

“Eighty percent of interdictions of U.S.-bound drugs occur at sea. This underscores the importance of maritime interdiction in combatting the flow of illegal narcotics and protecting American communities from this deadly threat.”

Cocaine use is a major issue in the United States. According to an August 2025 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cocaine overdose death rates jumped from 4.5 individuals per 100,000 people in 2018 to 8.6 in 2023. Between 2011 and 2023, the number of overdose deaths involving cocaine rose from 4,681 to 29,449 individuals.

Around 2.8 million adults used cocaine in 2021, out of which almost half had a cocaine use disorder, according to a January 22 study published at the National Library of Medicine. Cocaine use has been linked to cardiovascular risk factors.

Military Strikes

The United States has also conducted numerous recent strikes against suspected drug trafficking vessels.

In an April 26 post on X, the U.S. Southern Command said the military conducted a kinetic strike against a boat in the Eastern Pacific, which it said was ferrying drugs. The strike ended up killing three male narco-terrorists.

Earlier, the Southern Command announced a strike on a drug trafficking vessel in the Eastern Pacific on April 24, which resulted in the deaths of two individuals.

Such military strikes have come under criticism. On March 13, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) testified against these strikes at a hearing held by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR).

At the hearing, Jamil Dakwar, director of the ACLU Human Rights Program, said that the United States had launched 45 armed attacks as part of the strikes in international waters as of March 12, killing an estimated 157 individuals.

“The United States has not conducted these strikes pursuant to any congressional authorization, as required under domestic law. Instead, the government has acted unilaterally and in violation of international law on the use of force,” Dakwar said.

In a March 13 statement, Thomas Pigott, a spokesperson for the Department of State, criticized the hearing, saying the IACHR “strayed far outside its mandate and acted beyond its competence” in holding the event.

The United States called on the IACHR to focus on its statutes and rules of procedure rather than inserting itself in matters that fall “outside the human rights sphere.”

“The IACHR allowed the ACLU to exploit the hearing to try to force the United States to prematurely disclose arguments and evidence in two cases pending before U.S. federal courts,” Pigott said.

In December, Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson told reporters that the strikes have been thoroughly vetted by the proper authorities.

Each strike against a drug vessel operated by designated terror organizations is taken to protect the United States and to defend vital American interests, Wilson said.

“Our operations in the Southcom region are lawful under both U.S. and international law, with all actions in compliance with the Law of Armed Conflict. These actions have also been approved by the best military and civilian lawyers up and down the chain of command,” the press secretary said.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 11:40

ZeroHedge Fertilizer Debate: Hormuz Closure Could Usher In New Arab Spring 

ZeroHedge Fertilizer Debate: Hormuz Closure Could Usher In New Arab Spring 

On Friday, ZeroHedge, in partnership with the Macro Dirt Podcast, hosted a debate focused on the implications for agriculture, inflation, and global supply chains given the current situation in Iran. The discussion was illuminating and worth a rewatch if you missed it. 

The discussion featured former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, and was hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian.

The Damage Has Been Done

Even in a best case scenario where shipping lanes reopen immediately, Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson says the damage is already embedded in the system.

“If everything opens tomorrow in the strait and goes back 100% to normal, there’s a five to six week open spot where ships are not arriving where they typically arrived.”

The warning came during last night’s ZH deep dive into a potential fertilizer and farming crisis, with possible Arab Spring-level disruptions in the Third World, but as Johnson said “the U.S. is not immune”.

Johnson joined Tony Greer and Jared Dillian of the Macro Dirt Podcast and former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell who now writes at campbellramble.ai. Here were the key moments for those short on time:

“Perfect Storm”

The five to six week wartime-gap (assuming that’s all) is colliding directly with the agricultural calendar.

Johnson: “The planting season is largely already over. And the fertilizers that would have normally been available were not. And those that were available were higher priced… You look at the number of bankruptcies that are being filed by farmers in the United States and it’s spiked.”

At the same time, weather risk is rising. “This is an El Niño year… and that throws all kinds of havoc with weather patterns.” The combination, he says, raises the probability of a delayed but meaningful shock.

“You could have a perfect storm six to nine months from now.”

Johnson points to prior episodes where similar conditions led to sharp price moves. “In 2007 and 2008, there was a food crisis… there was a supply disruption, a bad harvest, and policy decisions that diverted supply.” The result was significant inflation in staple commodities: “In 2007 and ‘08, rice spiked almost 200%. In 2010 and 11, wheat price went up 130%.”

“In all of these cases, you started to have social unrest” a la Arab Spring.

“When people are full and warm, they don’t typically protest. But when they’re cold and hungry, that’s when they start taking to the streets.”

Arab Spring 2.0

“When I was looking at prior food crisis… 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011… they were bad, but one of the reasons I think they could be worse now… at the time, those emerging markets and those developing countries were a lot more agrarian-based because that’s what they could afford.”

According to Johnson, over the past two decades, that standard of living… and importantly the expectation of a standard of living. “As they have moved into the middle class in places like China and India… they’ve gotten accustomed to having meat once in a while.”

Meat = more resource intensive. “People don’t really consume corn, but it’s a big part of the food stock that goes into poultry or beef… to grow the animal protein that people have gotten accustomed to eating.”

In developing countries, this could mean a reversion to poverty they’d expected was over:

“Now, if I have to suddenly start going back to just eating rice and I’m no longer having meat… I’m going to be pissed off.”

To listen the full discussion where Brent, Tony, Jared, and Alex go deep into the weeds for how investors can hedge against this scenario, watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 11:05

Dem Rep Suggests Hegseth Could Be Executed For War Crimes Like Nazi Sub-Captains

Dem Rep Suggests Hegseth Could Be Executed For War Crimes Like Nazi Sub-Captains

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a stunning escalation of partisan rhetoric, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) declared on national television that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is “guilty” of war crimes — and compared U.S. military operations against drug-smuggling boats to the actions of Nazi submarine captains executed after World War II.

The remarks, delivered Wednesday on CNN’s OutFront, come as the Trump administration presses aggressive action to dismantle narco-terrorist networks flooding America with deadly fentanyl and other poisons.

Instead of backing efforts to secure the homeland, Moulton opted to invoke the language of international tribunals.

Host Erin Burnett asked Moulton directly: “Do you believe that the Secretary of Defense is guilty of war crimes?”

Moulton answered without hesitation: “Absolutely. I mean, he’s clearly behind the operation to shoot all these boats in the Caribbean when it’s very unclear that we actually have any confirmation that these so-called narco terrorists, a term the administration invented to justify this action, are even on the boats.”

He continued, “I mean, in fact, there’s a lot of evidence that these are just fishermen, you know, getting jobs, piloting these boats, trying to feed their families. There’s been press reporting on some of these individuals who have been killed, who are clearly not war criminals.”

He added, “And on top of that, we then have the strike where they came back in and hit it again, a double tap, just purely to kill these survivors who were clinging to wreckage. You know, it’s interesting, Erin, another historical analogy back in World War II, the Allies tried Nazi submarine captains for doing this exact same thing. And guess what the conclusion was? They got executed. Listen to THAT, Mr. Secretary!”

The X post capturing the moment quickly went viral, with users reacting in disbelief at a sitting congressman invoking execution rhetoric against a Trump cabinet official.

This isn’t isolated grandstanding. It fits a clear pattern: Democrats framing routine counter-narcotics operations — strikes on vessels tied to designated terrorist organizations like Tren de Aragua operating on known smuggling routes — as criminal acts worthy of prosecution.

Hegseth’s Pentagon has been blunt about the mission: these are lethal, kinetic strikes against narco-terrorists poisoning American communities. Intelligence confirms the targets’ affiliations and routes. Yet Moulton and his allies prefer to romanticize the boat crews as innocent fishermen and demand accountability for those actually fighting the scourge.

The timing is no coincidence. Less than a week after another high-profile political violence incident, Moulton’s Nazi comparison and talk of executions pour gasoline on an already volatile climate. Democrats have repeatedly shown they view Trump administration officials not as legitimate leaders chosen by voters, but as targets for lawfare, congressional harassment, and public demonization.

This rhetoric reveals the left’s playbook in the post-2024 era. Unable to win at the ballot box on issues like border security and drug interdiction, they reach for the DOJ, the media, and inflammatory accusations to delegitimize and destroy political opponents.

Moulton, a veteran himself, should know better than to equate U.S. forces defending against narco-terrorism with Nazi war criminals. Instead, his comments signal that for some Democrats, no Trump policy — not even one stopping drugs from killing thousands of Americans — escapes the smear of criminality.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 10:30

Russian Black Sea Town Plunged Into Environmental Catastrophe After 4th Drone Strike On Oil Complex

Russian Black Sea Town Plunged Into Environmental Catastrophe After 4th Drone Strike On Oil Complex

Russia’s Tuapse on the Black Sea can’t catch a break as it has been hit by Ukrainian drones for the fourth time within only a month, after a series of devastating attacks in April which unleashed large fires.

On Friday another fire broke out at a marine terminal in Tuapse after this latest Ukrainian drone strike, regional emergency officials have confirmed. Over 100 fire-fighting personnel are battling the blaze.

Tuapse has already been under a state of emergency for several days, when a Ukrainian drone strike triggered a massive refinery fire, forcing evacuations and spilling oil into coastal waters.

2026 Vantor/NBC via Getty Images

That prior fire was only extinguished Thursday, and only 24 hours later the next drone strike hit. The town there has already been facing environmental disaster, with even black rain reported due to the constant thick black smoke hanging high above.

Russia’s consumer safety watchdog Rospotrebnadzor warned residents to limit time outdoors, keep windows closed, and wear masks due to elevated benzene levels – a highly toxic carcinogen – following repeated drone attacks.

Local authorities have canceled all public events through at least the first ten days of May, covering Labor Day and Victory Day celebrations.

President Putin said earlier in the week after a briefing from Kondratyev that there did not “seem to be any dangers and people are handling the challenges they face” amid the attacks.

However, frustrated locals are desperately asking: what about Russian defensive measures and why have these failed so spectacularly? First, it should be noted that small drones have become efficient and their size advantage is seen in evading conventional radar and anti-air missiles, by and large. TASS only has this to offer by way of official statement:

“Intensive efforts are underway” to prevent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

All details about targets hit by the Kiev regime are classified: “As for any information regarding targets hit as a result of strikes by the Kiev regime, the details are classified; we will not discuss them publicly at this time.”

Measures to deal with the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse are being taken “at an appropriate level.”

The complex processes some 12 million metric tons of crude annually and remains a crucial and major export route for naphtha, fuel oil, and diesel.

The fallout from these several attacks of late have been so serious as to force the closure of nearby regional aviation hubs. Some residents have begun fleeing the area to seek shelter with other family, until the situation stabilizes. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 09:55

USSS Chief Says Hilton Site Was ‘Set Up Perfectly,’ Critics Disagree

USSS Chief Says Hilton Site Was ‘Set Up Perfectly,’ Critics Disagree

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

The head of the U.S. Secret Service is defending security arrangements at last Saturday’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, saying he would not change a thing about the security plan, even as questions continue to swirl around the shooting and his leadership of the agency.

The site was set up perfectly, I will tell you I would not change the site again,” Secret Service Director Sean Curran told Fox News host Will Cain Thursday.

Curran said one agent was shot at “point-blank range” by suspect Cole Tomas Allen as he dashed through a security checkpoint inside the Washington Hilton hotel, where President Donald Trump and thousands of guests had gathered for the annual dinner.

Our officer heroically returned fire while being shot [at] point blank range in the chest with a shotgun,” Curran asserted. “[The officer] was able to get off five shots. It’s great training.”

The suspect was not struck by the agent’s return fire, Curran explained, alleging that Allen, 31, fell after hitting his knee and was subdued by other federal agents near the top of the stairs from the ballroom where Trump, the first lady, and top administration officials were dining.

Curran tried to stress that the actual place where Allen fell and was subdued was nearly 120 yards away from the podium where Trump and Vice President JD Vance were seated, along with top officers of the White House Press Corps Association. Curran argued that 120 yards is “a long distance to get to.” But Allen was just yards away from a short stairwell leading to a jam-packed ballroom filled with 2,600 guests, including numerous congressional leaders and Cabinet officials.

If he had gotten through those ballroom doors, it would have been a catastrophic,” Rich Staropoli, a former Secret Service agent who protected four presidents and served as a senior official in the Department of Homeland Security, told RealClearPolitics.

Former agents and other sources in the Secret Service community also noted that Thomas Crooks, the would-be assassin who nearly killed Trump in July 2024 at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, was shooting from a distance of roughly 130 to 150 yards away from Trump and managed to strike his ear before a Secret Service counter-sniper shot and killed him.

Curran also pushed back on reports that the officer who was shot and saved by his bullet-proof vest may have been hit by friendly fire. He pointedly added that agents “who weren’t in the game when they were agents” were criticizing the security plan and execution.

On Thursday Trump said Secret Service leadership has relayed the same message to him.

“They said it wasn’t friendly fire. It wasn’t us,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Curran also repeated the same assertion – that this was not a friendly-fire incident – to a lawmaker in response to questions during a congressional briefing convened by Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, a source familiar with the briefing told RCP.

His account, however, differs in some respects from court documents filed Wednesday by prosecutors. Those filings reference an officer firing five times but make no mention of that officer or any other being shot, and do not accuse the suspect of aiming at or striking a Secret Service officer.

Released Video Raises New Questions, Criticism

Newly released surveillance footage from U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro shows Allen methodically casing the Washington Hilton in the hours before the attack – strolling hallways, peering into doorways, and scoping potential escape routes the day before the shooting.

On Friday, Allen appeared unhurried, even relaxed. He wandered through the hotel, at one point stopping to chat and smile with a Hilton staffer and later spending time in the hotel gym.

Saturday night’s video, however, reveals a more sinister story. Allen is seen lurking behind a doorway in the upper left of the frame – and in what may be one of the most striking images in the footage, a Secret Service dog appears to zero in on him. The handler, however, pulls the animal back.

Moments later, Allen emerges with a shotgun, fires at least one round, and sprints past agents, apparently tripping and falling directly into the hands of responding officers – somehow escaping the hail of gunfire directed at him unscathed.

The video has revived concerns about the night’s security and whether the Secret Service was up to the task of preventing an attack. Critics maintain that the agency was simply lucky that Allen was working alone and that the security team seemed unprepared for a more professional organized threat with multiple assailants.

After viewing the video, Fox News’ Laura Ingraham also questioned Curran’s “set-up perfectly” narrative.

“Perimeter maintenance? Officers standing around, a few seemingly run away and falling into each other, K-9 sense not followed, officers only noticing Allen holding long gun when he was already through the magnetometer,” she said. “Thank God only one shooter and no bombs.”

Conservative commentator Clay Travis was equally unsparing.

“10 of the 11 guards weren’t paying attention when the guy with the gun came running at them attempting to kill the president,” he remarked on X.com. “And the one guy who was watching fired multiple shots from this close without hitting the would be assassin.”

Three federal officers lined up against the back wall appear to be Transportation Security Administration employees who likely helped with bag screening, according to federal law enforcement sources. When they saw Allen running with a shotgun, the trio crunched down and crawled around the corner.

Earlier in the day, reporters asked Trump if he believed he needs to wear a bulletproof vest to protect himself. Trump appeared reluctant. “I don’t know if I can handle looking 20 pounds heavier,” he quipped, adding more seriously: “I guess it’s something you consider. In one way you don’t like to do it because you’re giving in to a bad element.”

Trump has stood by the Secret Service leadership, even praising the agents who subdued Allen for doing an “outstanding job.” But the White House also released a statement Monday stating that Chief of Staff Susie Wiles would meet with Secret Service and Department of Homeland Security leaders this week to review security protocols for major events involving Trump.

We’re always looking for ways to improve security,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. “I think if you just sit here and say everything is perfect all the time, â??that’s not a good way to operate.”

Several former and current Secret Service agents contacted for this article said suggestions that Trump should be forced to take the extreme measure of wearing a bullet-proof vest are only being considered because the agency failed in securing the White House Correspondents’ dinner. The security plan appeared very similar to past dinners when then-Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama attended, but was completely outdated for the obvious high threat-level Trump currently faces after two assassination attempts and explicit threats from Iranian officials, the sources argued.

“The Secret Service got incredibly lucky again, and luck isn’t a security strategy,” Staropoli said. “What if it had been multiple attackers or an explosive device, so how do you counter that? The obvious nature of the deficiencies here is ridiculous.”

Staropoli argues that Curran took a “big gamble unnecessarily” in allowing Trump, Vance, and many other Cabinet secretaries to attend the dinner.

He and other sources in the Secret Service community interviewed for this article argued that Curran should have informed Trump that the Washington Hilton was not a suitable venue. Instead, the agents in charge of devising the security plan for the night left many aspects of the hotel unsecured, including the staircase Allen used to access the checkpoint.

The close call that terrorized the entire ballroom is spurring more questions about Curran’s leadership, including whether his decisions to remove experienced senior leaders from both the Presidential Protective Division and its counterpart that secures the vice president contributed to poor planning for the dinner.

For decades, leadership of the Presidential Protective Division and Vice Presidential Protective Division was the capstone of a career trajectory that ran through the Senior Executive Service – the federal government’s elite management corps. Agents who rose to Special Agent in Charge or Deputy Special Agent in Charge of these divisions had typically accumulated years of varied leadership assignments, accumulated SES credentials, and been vetted through a rigorous internal pipeline.

Under Curran, multiple sources say, that pipeline has been dismantled. The director changed internal requirements so that SES experience is no longer mandatory for those top leadership roles – clearing the way for the promotion of agents who had not gone through the SES pipeline.

The starkest example, sources say, is the forced departure of David Yamin, who served as the last SES-credentialed Deputy Special Agent in Charge on PPD. Sources describe Yamin’s exit as effectively engineered by Curran to open the position for Matt Piant, a Curran loyalist, and others in the director’s trusted circle.

“David Yamin was exactly the kind of person you want in that role,” said one veteran agent. “SES, deep experience, knows how to run a detail. He didn’t leave voluntarily.”

The concern is not merely bureaucratic. Senior agents say the leadership gaps may have contributed to operational missteps, including the reported use of an outdated security model for the WHCA event at the Washington Hilton.

Curran Gave Himself and His Friends ‘Valor Awards’

In late March, Curran made waves across the agency by giving himself and several of his friends and senior Secret Service officials he placed in key leadership roles “valor awards,” announced through email to all employees of the Secret Service. The valor awards are just some of those the director designates each year while others include a Life-Saving Award for agents and officers who perform heroic actions on or off duty.

Agency employees are nominated for the awards by peers and supervisors, but the director has the final say. A source familiar with this year’s process said Piant nominated Curran for the award. Despite the failures that nearly resulted in Trump’s assassination at the Butler rally, Curran also gave Piant the award, along with all of the agents who helped Trump off the stage after he was shot in the ear, along with two counter-assault team members who worked the event.

Butler, the Iranian Threat, and a Junior Staffer’s Demand

Another illustration of what critics describe as a leadership culture afraid to say no to Trump’s team dates back to the Butler rally.

According to multiple Secret Service sources familiar with the security planning for Butler, a junior Trump campaign official raised an objection: The campaign did not want farm equipment visible in the camera shot behind the stage. The Secret Service, these sources say, had positioned that equipment in part because of intelligence indicating the potential of a long-range shooter, possibly of Iranian origin, in Butler.

Curran, sources say, agreed to remove the farm equipment – eliminating a line-of-sight barrier – at the request of a campaign aide, despite having been briefed on the threat.

“A director who will tell the president what he needs to hear, who will hold the line on a security call, is the whole job,” said one former senior DHS official. “That moment in Butler should have been a line in the sand. It wasn’t.”

The gunman at Butler fired from an unsecured rooftop with a direct line of sight to the stage.

Two months after Trump was nearly killed at Butler, a Secret Service agent discovered would-be assassin Ryan Routh armed and hiding in the bushes on the perimeter of a Florida golf course with his rifle pointing at Trump. The agent fired several rounds that didn’t hit Routh, who was later stopped and arrested while driving on the interstate.

Neither Curran nor Piant or any other GS-15 level agent was assigned to lead the detail that day. (GS-15 is the highest rung of the federal government’s pay scale before an employee enters the SES level.

“Curran has a pattern of being complacent and taking care of his buddies instead of doing the right thing,” a source in the Secret Service community told RCP.

The Secret Service did not respond to a repeated queries from RCP this week.

No Accountability After Two Attempts

Despite two assassination attempts on Trump – Butler in July and his golf course in September – no one in the Secret Service has been held accountable for the security lapses. Those involved in failures received 11- to 42-day suspensions. As the detail leader, Curran himself signed off on the flawed security plan, according to multiple Secret Service sources.

Meanwhile, Curran promoted two supervisors who oversaw the Butler detail, Nick Menster and Nick Olszerski. Menster was a supervisor for the Butler rally on the Donald Trump detail, while Olszewski was an inspector acting in a supervisory role.

After Butler, Menster became the No. 2 on the Lara and Eric Trump detail, and Olszewski was put in charge of the Inspections Division, which falls under the Office of Professional Responsibility and is charged with maintaining accountability and integrity for all Secret Service operations. Earlier this year, Olszewski was promoted to the leadership post of assistant director of the Office of Professional Responsibility, sources told RCP.

Some rank-and-file agents have been incensed over the decision not to hold these supervisors accountable, further sinking already low morale and exacerbating retention problems throughout the agency.

A Recruitment Crisis – and a Standards Crisis

Behind the leadership turmoil is a broader personnel crisis. Recruitment bonuses, which once ranged from $45,000 to $50,000, have been increased to $75,000 in an attempt to hasten recruitment and hiring. The agency also utilizes retention bonuses, often up to 10%-25% of base salary, but senior agents are still leaving in significant numbers, sources say, exhausted by the dysfunction and diminished by an agency culture in free fall.

The Secret Service’s use of TSA agents to supplement screening is a telltale sign that the agency is undermanned, according to a Secret Service agent who recently left. In the past, TSA screeners only joined Secret Service security screenings during times that required extreme manpower needs, such as during the campaign conventions. 

The rush to fill the ranks, some say, has come with an erosion of standards – a dangerous combination for an agency whose core mission is protecting the most targeted person on earth.

A Cascade of Misconduct

Curran’s leadership tenure has coincided with a striking accumulation of scandals, mishaps, and security lapses, many of which RCP first reported.

  • In recent weeks, Secret Service agent Tristan William Hale was charged criminally with sending explicit material to a 16-year-old Pennsylvania girl.
  • Two agents became ensnared in separate sex-related scandals within the span of two months, including one involving an OnlyFans account and another in a recorded honey-pot sting operation organized by James O’Keefe.
  • In late March, a U.S. Secret Service special agent assigned to former first lady Jill Biden’s protective detail accidentally shot himself in the leg at Philadelphia International Airport. 
  • Special Agent Miyo Perez – who was responsible for Butler site security – secretly married a foreign national suspected of being an undocumented immigrant, without informing the agency until January.
  • In January, a man allegedly broke windows at Vance’s Ohio home while Vance and his family were in D.C., but his parents were on the property. Secret Service agents were parked outside when it occurred and didn’t stop him.
  • Two female Uniformed Division officers were recorded in a physical altercation outside former President Obama’s Washington, D.C., residence last year.
  • Last autumn, an overweight male agent fell asleep at a public security post at the United Nations, then left his M4 rifle in a folding chair while he went to the restroom.
  • Uniformed Division officers failed to detect a Glock handgun during a screening at Trump’s Virginia golf course.
  • A Secret Service agent publicly celebrated the assassination of Charlie Kirk on Facebook, writing on Facebook that it was “karma.”
  • Richard Giuditta,the agency’s chief counsel, was forced to resign following a road rage incident in which he impersonated a federal officer.
  • Chief of Staff Tyler McQuiston admitted an unauthorized visitor – a former Citigroup colleague – to the White House for a meeting the visitor had not been cleared to attend. In an unprecedented response, the White House urged the Secret Service to ensure it never happened again. A top official decided to revoke the security badges of numerous top Secret Service officials to limit their own agency’s access to the building they are charged with protecting.
  • Secret Service agents failed to prevent Code Pink protesters from aggressively confronting Trump and senior Cabinet members at a Washington restaurant.
  • The FBI late last year raided a Secret Service agent’s home in connection with an alleged large-scale tax fraud scheme, potentially involving dozens of additional agents.
  • A newly sworn Secret Service agent was charged with killing his brother over the Christmas holiday.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 09:20

Spirit Airlines ‘Bites The Dust’ As All Flights Canceled; Trump Admin To Provide ‘Relief’ To Customers, Workers

Spirit Airlines ‘Bites The Dust’ As All Flights Canceled; Trump Admin To Provide ‘Relief’ To Customers, Workers

The collapse of bankrupt Spirit Airlines is now official.

After several failed attempts by the Trump administration to engineer a rescue package, including a proposed $500 million financing deal that could have left the U.S. government with control of up to 90% of the budget carrier, negotiations broke down late this week.

By Saturday morning, Spirit had begun winding down operations, with all flights canceled and the carrier entering liquidation mode.

The outcome marks the final flight for the budget airline, crushed by years of operational stress, failed merger attempts, mounting debt, and a brutal jet-fuel price shock that derailed its efforts to emerge from bankruptcy this summer.

The Trump administration was willing to explore an extraordinary state-backed rescue to save nearly 7,500 jobs.

Now, however, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has announced “ACTION to bring relief to Spirit customers and its workforce.” This will include other airlines (United, Delta, JetBlue & Southwest) agreeing to cap ticket prices for Spirit customers who have been left in the lurch, reduced fares on ‘high-volume Spirit routes”, while American Airlines and United “are creating microsites for Spirit employees looking to continue a career in aviation.”

Spirit’s statement about winding down operations:

It is with great disappointment that Spirit Airlines has started winding down its global operations, effective immediately. All flights have been cancelled, and customer service is no longer available. While we are not able to help rebook your flight on another airline, we will automatically process refunds for any flights purchased through Spirit with a credit or debit card to the original form of payment. We are proud of the impact of our ultra-low-cost model on the industry for the last 33 years and had hoped to serve our Guests for many years to come.

Polymarket odds:

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
Yes 16% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?

Even as Spirit begins winding down operations, President Trump said Friday that he will “have something on Spirit today or tomorrow.”

What that means at this stage is anyone’s guess, especially with rescue talks reportedly dead and the airline already moving into full shutdown mode.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/02/2026 – 08:45