Summary

• Bessent on X: “Amid the impact of Economic Fury, Iran’s currency has hit an all-time low. The Iranian people deserve a new era, which the corrupt and shambolic Iranian regime cannot provide.” Signals hope for uprising, regime change.

• Israeli Defense Minister Katz: “soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come.” Oil spikes on this and new reports of Israeli defense build-up at ports, air hubs.

• Not giving up nuclear program: Iran will “guard” its “advanced technologies” like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written speech read aloud by state TV. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”

• US military teases cutting-edge, not yet tested in battle, hypersonic missiles for Mideast region as CENTCOM head set to brief Trump on further military options at White House.

• Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.

*  *  *

Bessent Gloats Over Iran’s Collapsing Currency, Signals Hope For Uprising

Amid chatter that Israel could be preparing for renewed attacks on Iran, and as Trump is said to be mulling more limited strikes – but while at the same time the USS Gerald R Ford is returning to the United States after a record deployment – Iran is signaling it is ready for a long war and can endure the US naval blockade for a long time to come. However, there are also unconfirmed reports out of Pakistan that another draft peace proposal could be presented by Tehran as soon as this weekend. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has newly said Thursday the blockade is effectively an “extension of military operations” by Washington, despite the extended ceasefire declared by Trump.

Also on Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the US administration gameplan seems to be to drive Iran into economic ruin, in hopes of triggering some kind of uprising toward regime change. But this was the exact same ‘prediction’ and gameplan in the opening days of the war – which never materialized. One the one hand his below message on X seems to gloat over imposing widescale misery over the bombed-out country, while on the other claiming to help and support the Iranian people, saying they “deserve a new era”. 

As we reported earlier, Iran’s currency on Wednesday collapsed to a record low, plunging to 1.8 million rial per dollar amid the prolonged US-Israel war and uneasy ceasefire, also as surging global energy prices hit the economy. The rial began sliding sharply two days prior to this after weeks of artificial stability. In the early phase of the war that kicked off on February 28, the currency held steady due to a near-total halt in imports and limited market activity.

“We think the price was worth it” vibes…

Amid the impact of Economic Fury, Iran’s currency has hit an all-time low.

The Iranian people deserve a new era, which the corrupt and shambolic Iranian regime cannot provide.

With their oil industry closing and their currency plummeting, it is past time for the Iranian regime… pic.twitter.com/k7QvKoWbl2

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 30, 2026

Oil Spikes on Israeli Defense Chief’s Threats of New Strikes

Israel Defense Minister Katz has said in a Thursday briefing: “It is possible that soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come,” according to a local reporter.

According to more, he said that while Israel supports the United States’ diplomatic efforts with Iran, it may “soon be required to act again” to remove the “existential threats” posed by the Islamic Republic.

“Iran has suffered extremely severe blows over the past year, blows that have set it back years in all areas,” Katz continued at a military ceremony. “US President Trump, in coordination with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is leading the effort to complete the campaign’s objectives in a way that ensures Iran will not return to being a threat to the existence of Israel, to the United States, and to the free world for generations to come,” he added. “We support this effort and provide the necessary backing, but we may soon be required to act again to ensure the objectives are achieved.” Oil prices shooting back up on the headline, and as Israeli media reports on a new military build-up and US defense aid at the country’s ports…

The below is via AP on a “new plan” being mulled by Trump:

Under the plan, the United States would continue its blockade on Iranian ports, while coordinating with allies to impose higher costs on Iran’s attempts to subvert the free flow of energy, according to a senior administration official. Trump is weighing multiple diplomatic and policy options to push Iran to end its chokehold on the waterway, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

Khamenei: Protect Nuclear Program, Gulf Region Will Have Future Without America

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has never released video or voice messages, and he’s still not been seen or even photographed since the war’s start, and is believed to be severely injured and recovering. State TV on Thursday read aloud his written speech, which struck a defiant tone, declaring that the only place Americans belonged in the Persian Gulf is “at the bottom of its waters” and that a “new chapter” was being written for the whole region. State media cited security as the reason for having to read aloud his statement.

Khamenei says Iran will closely guard and protect its nuclear and missile capabilities, a clear and direct rejection of President Trump’s demand to hand over enriched uranium as the basis for a deal. Iranians will cling to the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities “as their national capital and will guard them like water, land and air borders,” Khamenei said.

Chilling: Iran supreme leader issues statement saying:
— only place Americans belong in Persian Gulf is ‘at the bottom of its waters
— Iran will protect nuclear capability
—Iran will keep Hormuz

Iran is not surrendering— it’s preparing for escalation https://t.co/rFkkH0TTVh

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 30, 2026

“By God’s help and power, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America, one serving the progress, comfort and prosperity of its people,” Khamenei continued. “We and our neighbors across the waters of the Persian Gulf and the (Gulf) of Oman share a common destiny. Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away to act with greed and malice there have no place in it – except at the bottom of its waters.” He also vowed Iran’s forces will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”

US Teases Hypersonic Missiles, CENTCOM to Brief Trump

As we detailed Wednesday night, United States Central Command has requested deployment of the Army’s long-delayed hypersonic Dark Eagle to the Middle East for potential use against Iran, seeking a longer-range capability to strike ballistic missile launchers deep inside the country, Bloomberg first reported. If approved, the move would mark the first deployment of the hypersonic system, which remains behind schedule and has not been declared fully operational, even as Russia and China have already long ago fielded their own versions.

The Pentagon has claimed time and again of late that it has local air superiority, meaning that in some parts of Iran its aircraft can operate without facing much of a threat. And yet dozens of MQ-9 aircraft, plus several crewed fighters, have been downed, showing that other parts of Iran’s airspace remain dangerous.

The Bloomberg report hit just as Axios rehashed an earlier report, according to which President Trump will receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper. The briefing signals that “Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations either to try to break the logjam in negotiations or to deliver a final blow before ending the war.”

Meanwhile the Iranian side has been claiming dozens of its vessels have breached the US naval blockade, which the Pentagon has been denying. Others say that while some ships have traversed the strait, they have not actually fully crossed the blockade.

Fifty two Iranian vessels have crossed a US-imposed blockade of Iranian waters within a 72-hour period…
https://t.co/mZrwK5qijI

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 29, 2026

IAEA Chief on Global Energy Crisis, Oil

The head of the International Energy Agency (IAEA) has emphasized in new remarks that the world is facing its biggest energy crisis in history due to the war. “The oil markets and gas markets are going through big difficulties. When I looked last time, the oil price was over $120 which is putting a lot of pressure on many countries,” executive director Fatih Birol said at a conference in Paris. “Our world is facing a major economic and energy challenge.”

Indeed, benchmark Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.

Iranian leadership in the meantime continues to troll the US over rising oil and gas prices, using its significant geographic leverage over global markets…

3 days in, no well exploded.We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here.
That was the kind of junk advice the US admin gets from people like Bessent who also push the blockade theory and cranked oil up to $120+. Next stop:140. The issue isn’t the theory, it’s the mindset.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 29, 2026

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

• US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported citing sources; plan includes a short and powerful strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock. Other options expected to be presented include a plan to take over part of the Strait to allow for commercial shipping, which could involve ground forces, and a special forces op to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile.
• US CENTCOM has asked to send the Army’s hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• US CENTCOM said the US navy has redirected 42 vessels from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and that the military is fully committed to enforcing the blockade.
• US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu that Israel should only take surgical military action in Lebanon and avoid a full resumption of the war, Axios reported.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said sprinting for the finish line with Iran, according to Fox Business; willing to do secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers. Every day adding more economic pressure to Iran. Close to half a billion in Iran-related crypto seized. Consumers and stock market are looking through Iran. UAE and others have requested swap lines, swap lines are not a bailout.
• Iran lawmaker Mottaki says a naval blockade would amount to a declaration of war, and that fighters could decide as soon as tomorrow or next week to remove such obstacles via military action.
• Iran’s Navy Commander said the Islamic Republic will soon unveil a new weapon that would deeply terrify the enemy, IRNA reported. He said Iran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea. Condemned the US’s illegal seizure of several Iranian vessels as part of the blockade, which he said amounted not only to “piracy” but also “hostage-taking”.
• Iran’s Navy commander warns that Iran will soon face its enemies with a very dreadful weapon that will strike fear into their hearts, according to Press TV.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said channels of dialogue with officials in Washington and Tehran remain open, Al Hadath reported. ““The clock on diplomacy has snit stopped. We remain hopeful for a negotiated settlement on this issue. We will continue with our sincerest efforts”,.
• China’s Military said they conducted combat readiness patrols near Scarborough Shoal, according to a statement.
• “No point” in negotiating over zero enrichment, Iranian lawmaker said, Al Jazeera reported; adding “I have no objection to going to the negotiating table, but we should have looked more closely at how to proceed”.
• The US administration is asking countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reported. The Maritime Freedom Construct would be a US-led coalition that would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.
• A surveillance drone near the US embassy in Baghdad has been shot down, according to Iraqi security sources.
• Iranian Navy Commander said we have closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian sea side and will take swift action if enemy advances, Al Araby reported.

Earlier this month, when much of the attention was largely focused on private credit, we warned that one of the old, familiar credit market time-bombs, commercial real estate which for many years had been penned as the “Next Big Short”, was deteriorating rapidly: according to the latest TREPP CMBS monthly report, March saw a surge in the CMBS delinquency rate, which jumped by 41bps to 7.55%, the highest in years, led by a surge in the lodging rate, a category which until now was not a source of concern. 

It now appears that this particular time bomb is about to go off, as the huge redemptions wave that rocked private credit in recent months is making a move into commercial real estate. 

According to Bloomberg, Barry Sternlicht’s high-profile Starwood Capital Group Management is halting redemptions from a $22 billion real estate fund aimed at retail investors as it seeks to prevent a flight of assets amid mounting pressure on its bet that the commercial real estate markets would quickly recover from interest rate rises in 2022 and 2023

The asset manager is “temporarily suspending” share repurchases from its Starwood Real Estate Income Trust with a few exceptions following a strategic review, according to a letter to shareholders. It will also cut its annualized distribution to 4.7% for Class I shares, down from 6.3% as of March.

Sternlicht’s fund, one of the first retail private markets funds, pinned its decision to temporarily suspend most redemptions on interest rates that have “remained high”. The move comes after Sreit had restricted investors’ liquidity rights by more than 80% two years ago

“We recognize this decision may be frustrating for some shareholders,” Starwood CEO Barry Sternlicht said in the letter. “However, taking this step now allows us to preserve the opportunity to realize better outcomes as market conditions improve.”

The issue was “not the real estate,” said Sternlicht in the letter, but rather “the pressure created by elevated redemption requests, which rose quite suddenly when interest rates spiked and remained high”. 

As the FT notes, SREIT has struggled to recover from a real estate market that has remained weak since interest rates began to creep up four years ago. The fund owns 598 properties across the US. Sternlicht said Sreit would “reintroduce liquidity when it can be done in a consistent and sustainable way” Until then, the firm will only allow investors to redeem their shares due to death, disability or if their balance is below $5,000.

The CEO said Starwood expected “the war with Iran to conclude, oil prices to subside, inflation to stabilize, and for Kevin Warsh to be seated as Fed Chair, supporting a lower interest rate environment”. 

“The temporary actions announced today reflect our commitment to making the right long-term decisions for all SREIT shareholders, including the nearly 70% who have never made a redemption request,” Sternlicht said in an emailed statement. “Our interests are fully aligned with our investors as the largest owner of SREIT, with over a $500 million ownership stake.”Sternlicht said in a statement.

Last month, hedge fund Saba Capital last month offered to buy 5% of the outstanding shares in Sreit, at a discount of more than 20% of the fund’s most recent stated value. In the end, Saba acquired only $7.7 million of the approximately $400mn in SREIT shares they had offered to buy, the FT reported. 

Two years ago, Starwood limited investors’ ability to redeem their investments after the FT reported that SREIT had tapped its credit facility to support redemptions, rather than selling real estate assets.

SREIT launched in 2018 amid a wave of similar offerings from Blackstone and KKR  to give retail investors exposure to commercial real estate. In the early years, low interest rates helped the funds plow capital into apartment buildings, warehouses and other properties. But the real estate cycle flipped in the middle of 2022, when a sharp increase in interest rates cratered property values and pushed investors to withdraw capital. Those withdrawals have been eating into SREIT’s liquidity, leading to Wednesday’s decision to halt redemptions.

As readers are well aware, SREIT is not the only retail-oriented fund that has come under pressure in recent months. Similarly structured vehicles that invest in private credit have suffered a wave of withdrawals amid concerns over underwriting standards and potential disruption to software businesses from AI, forcing managers to enforce caps on withdrawals.

SREIT is among the largest owners of multifamily apartments in the US, with more than 63,000 apartment units concentrated in the Sunbelt, including Texas and Florida, according to the letter.

Sternlicht made a reputation buying distressed real estate in the aftermath of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s. He went on to found Starwood Hotels & Resorts, which was later acquired by Marriott International Inc., and the real estate lender Starwood Property Trust.

In recent years, he has criticized the Federal Reserve for being late to increase interest rates in the aftermath of Covid. In the letter he said that he expects the war in Iran to end, leading to lower oil prices and stabilizing inflation. He now expects the Fed to cut rates.  

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has since the war’s start and prior assassinations of top leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei become the most visible figurehead representing the Islamic Republic to the world, has continued trolling the United States even as President Trump is renewing fresh military strikes amid an uneasy extended ceasefire and ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports.

He stated Wednesday that the United States’ naval blockade of the country has a goal to create division and “make us collapse from within.” His message was delivered through state TV and he is warning citizens about “maintaining unity” in the face of this unprecedented economic and military pressure.

Ghalibaf went on to explain that Trump falsely “divides the country into two groups: hardliners and moderates, and then immediately talks about a naval blockade to force Iran into submission through economic pressure and internal discord,” according to more from state media sources.

“The enemy has entered a new phase and wants to activate economic pressure and internal division through naval blockade and media hype to weaken or even make us collapse from within,” he continued, urging Iranians that the only solution is to keep national unity amid the assault.

This hearkens back to Trump having said earlier this month that the Iranian government was “seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so.”

This was quickly followed by reports that Ghalibaf himself was being sidelined by the IRGC when it comes to the next potential US-Iranian talks. But Tehran quickly rejected reports that the influential parliament speaker had been removed from the negotiating team.

As for definitions of ‘hardline vs. moderate’ – these are somewhat superficial and manufactured by the West (akin to prior Middle East wars and regime change operations, with one recent example being so-called “moderate rebels” in Syria).

With the MSM and Iran, this is based fundamentally on speculation from afar and circular logic. Any Iranian official who is against pursuing more negotiations – while understandably coming to the conclusion that Washington can’t be trusted (after it bombed Iran twice during talks) – gets automatically labelled ‘hardliner’ by the MSM, and this also carries all kinds of implications overlapping with radical Islam. The idea is to make anyone not amenable to Washington and Israeli plans for the region look irrational and fanatical – even if their decisions might be rational and understandable based on Iranian national self-interest and survival.

Meanwhile Ghalibaf has continued trolling the US on X over rising oil and gas prices, which again suggests that Tehran is settling in for a long war, and is willing to endure and survive politically…

3 days in, no well exploded.We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here.
That was the kind of junk advice the US admin gets from people like Bessent who also push the blockade theory and cranked oil up to $120+. Next stop:140. The issue isn’t the theory, it’s the mindset.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 29, 2026

The longer the Hormuz standoff goes, and the more the anti-Tehran rhetoric flows out of the White House and from Trump on Truth Social, the more likely the Iranian so-called hardliners are to influence broader numbers of Iranian leaders and sectors of the public. This is especially if Tehran gets bombed again, which is looking likely.

Yet Washington is hoping that it actually produces the opposite: admin officials have expressed hope that common Iranians would take to the streets in large numbers, with regime collapse being the end goal.

On the surface, today’s Q1 GDP print was unremarkable: Real GDP grew 2.0% annualized in the first quarter, somewhat below consensus expectations of 2.3% and reflecting a surprisingly small rebound in government spending after the shutdown drag in Q4. Federal government spending contributed only half as much to real GDP growth in Q1 (+0.6%) as it subtracted in Q4 (-1.2%), implying that the level of real federal government spending in Q1 is 2.2% below its level in 2025Q3. Inventory accumulation also contributed less to Q1 growth than we had anticipated (+0.4pp vs. our expectation of +1.2pp). Net exports subtracted 1.3% from GDP after boosting it dramatically in early 2025 as imports surpassed exports. Consumer spending rose 1.6%, somewhat above consensus expectations, but as we noted earlier, much of this has been due to “stimulus” refunds which are now over, and which pushed spending growth far higher than income growth.

Even with the stimmies, personal savings dropped to a 3 year low.

Yet when we get to fixed investment, something remarkable emerges: Housing investment declined 8%, and subtracted 0.31% from the bottom line GDP print, which is to be expected with mortgage rates remaining very high, maintaining a depressed housing market.

But Nonresidential fixed investment was the outlier, soaring by 10.4%, largely reflecting a boost from higher electronics imports and a 12% annualized decline in software prices.

Let’s take a closer look at the breakdown.

The chart below shows quarterly annualized GDP growth broken down by components. It shows that Q1 GDP grew at exactly 2.0% in Q1. Also notable is that traditionally strong consumption, which contributed 1.0% of GDP growth, was offset by net trade (1.3%) with, inventories (0.4%) and government (0.73%) providing a modest offset. 

The highlighted block is Fixed Investment, which contributed 1.1%. However, keep in mind that residential fixed investment subtracted 0.31% from the total number, which means that Nonresidential fixed investment was responsible for 1.38% of the 2.0% GDP print.

Focusing on the fixed investment component, we find the following: as noted above, it was all about non-residential fixed investment.

Zooming into this segment, we find that Nonresidential equipment grew by 6.3%, or contributing 0.9% to the 2.0% GDP, while Intellectual Property products grew just over 5%, and added 0.7% to the bottom line GDP. 

While IP is clear – it consists primarily of Software, the kind that one uses to create and develop AI tools, as well as R&D – the components behind Nonresidential equipment need a closer look again, and here we find that Information Processing equipment, i.e., data centers, grew at a stunning 13%, comprising virtually all of the 0.88% contribution to 2% GDP growth.

And there you have it: between Software (0.7% of the GDP growth) and Nonresidential Equipment (0.88%), AI – which was the primary driver behind growth in both – contributed just over 1.5% to GDP growth of 2.0%; in other words about 75% of all US growth in Q1 was due to AI.

Another way to visualize the remarkable impact of spending on “computers” is the chart below: it clearly shows just how reliant the US has become on spending on computer products.

And that’s why AI is now not only a market bubble, but it has become a core anchor propping up the entire US economy; it’s also why the US government will have no choice but to backstop it once the inevitable AI bubble pops. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rolled out a proposed redistricting map for the state this week, but the way he did it could give ammunition to lawyers mounting inevitable legal challenges that will follow the map’s expected approval by the legislature, both Democratic and Republican observers say. Some Republican legislators are uneasy with DeSantis’ rollout of the plan — which he shared with Fox News before he shared it with them. 

Today, Republicans hold 20 of Florida’s US House seats, compared to 8 held by Democrats. Under the DeSantis plan, the GOP could have a 24-4 advantage. DeSantis gave Fox News a map of his proposed new districts, depicting anticipated party control after the midterms.

The format of that map could prove legally fatal to the scheme. The Florida constitution contains anti-gerrymandering “Fair District” provisions that seek to prevent partisan “intent.” A Florida Republican consultant who’s participated in previous redistricting efforts expressed surprise at the  DeSantis team’s use of a color-coded map, telling NBC News, “This is wild. I don’t know how you can argue a red and blue map released from the governor’s office doesn’t show some form of partisan intent.” DeSantis told Fox News that new districts are needed after Florida was “shortchanged” in the 2020 census that determines each state’s number of House seats. 

In a memo to lawmakers, DeSantis also signaled his new map will be an attempt to force reconsideration of the Fair Districts provisions in the state Constitution. The language requires the consideration of race when drawing new political lines, which DeSantis says is unconstitutional. – NBC

Some Republicans are uneasy about the proposed districts. To create new GOP opportunities, some Republican-rich neighborhoods have been removed from current Republican districts, amping up the pressure on the incumbents who hold them, at a time when President Trump’s low approval ratings and significant Republican disenchantment with the administration present significant headwinds for the party. While many Republicans are still enthusiastic about Trump, some are put off by his initiation of a war of choice on Iran, his opposition to the release of the Epstein files, and his disinterest in imposing fiscal discipline. 

In what may or may not prove to be an omen for November, a March special election brought Republicans and Trump a bruising loss in Florida, as the GOP lost its grip on a reliably red state House seat that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. The Democrat challenger won the race by just over 2 points — an approximate 11-point swing toward Democrats from the 2024 outcome in the Palm Beach County district.

An appropriate response to Virginia – but what this reveals is both sides have given up on persuasion, recognizing the country is so divided that it’s basically impossible. So it’s a race to rig the system in your favor, all while speaking in grand terms about “our democracy.” https://t.co/96f8Dsfs4O

— FischerKing (@FischerKing64) April 27, 2026

The Florida plan is the latest development in a year-long, nationwide set of electoral-map skirmishes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. In the opening salvo of a war started at the urging of President Trump, last August Texas undertook a rare, mid-decade redistricting effort that aspires to flip five current Democrat-held seats into the Republican column this November. California responded with a new map meant to fully negate the Texas impact, flipping five GOP seats. Other states have made tweaks, and in the latest move, Virginians narrowly approved a referendum that would likely see the GOP lose four seats to the Democrats.

The various plans have been subjected to legal challenges. The last few days brought big news on that front. On Monday, the US Supreme Court issued a summary reversal allowing Texas to proceed with its new congressional map for the November 2026 elections. The justices overturned a federal district court’s earlier injunction against the new boundaries. Sunday held good news for Democrats, as a Virginia court rejected a Republican-led challenge to the state’s new map.

As the legal battles continue, some see the redistricting war as a clear signal that America is steadily plowing deeper into discord: 

We have reached phase six of Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle — when irreconcilable differences lead to political fracture, war, and then collapse. Arguably, we are already in a soft civil war.

— Kenneth Rapoza (@BRICbreaker) April 27, 2026

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro strategist at Rabobank

Energy prices continue their ascend –with Brent futures trading above $124/barrel – after media report that the US may try to break the stalemate in the US-Iran war by force. Axios reports that military leaders will brief Trump on potential military options today. Reportedly, the Pentagon is preparing a wave of “short and powerful” strikes on Iran, likely targeting infrastructure.

Yesterday, Trump still suggested that he would not resume the bombing campaign. The US president said he believes the US blockade of Hormuz is the most effective form of leverage. However, that strategy has so far failed to exert significant concessions from Iran. So, these military strikes –or the mere threat thereof– could be an option if Iran does not budge on the nuclear issue.

The news injects fresh tail risks into the outlook for the war, energy prices, and inflation around the globe. Amidst the unusually high uncertainty about the outlook, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as widely expected.

Equally expected was Governor Miran’s dissent, who repeated his preference for a rate cut. However, that was offset by three dissenting votes on the policy statement. Governors Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan “did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”

Chair Powell noted that the Committee was in no rush to change the language of the statement. Perhaps, the FOMC decided to wait for the change of guard – and to avoid wobbly messaging. Because once Warsh is appointed as next Fed chair, he will probably try to convince the other FOMC members of the need for additional rate cuts.

Whether Warsh succeeds depends on incoming data, but Powell suggested yesterday that this could be an uphill battle. According to the current Fed chair, the more centrist policymakers were moving towards a more neutral place in thinking about cuts versus hikes. Likewise, their economic assessment now says that inflation is “elevated,” instead of “somewhat elevated.”

We still forecast two rate cuts from a Warsh-led Fed this year. However, as we have flagged before, we think that in the coming months are more likely to drop a rate cut from our forecast than add one.

But the biggest surprise was arguably Powell’s personal decision: the current Fed chair announced that he will continue to stay on as governor for some time after his term as chair ends. This does not mean he will serve out his term as governor; Powell said he will leave when he thinks it’s appropriate – which he seemed to tie to the legal attacks on the central bank. Powell did suggest he would keep a lower profile, and that he would not try to undermine Warsh out of respect for the role of Fed chair.

Returning to energy prices, the fresh highs for Brent this week provide a sobering backdrop to the otherwise better-than-expected April inflation data for the Eurozone countries. Overall, German and Spanish inflation data for April were on the lower end of expectations – although the harmonized inflation measure still ticked 0.1 percentage point higher in Spain.

VAT cuts on petrol have certainly softened the blow. The fact that energy prices were somewhat lower in the first half of April may also have limited energy-driven price pressures for the month. That may be short-lived, given that the price of energy commodities has been on the rise again.

But the miss wasn’t entirely driven by lower energy prices – core inflation, i.e., inflation excluding energy and food, came in a bit lower too. Clothing and recreation –the Spanish bureau of statistics specifically mentions package holidays– were the main reasons why core inflation decelerated compared to the prior month. However, keep in mind that pricing of these goods and services can be quite erratic, due to seasonal shifts and the timing of holidays like Easter. So, this is a mitigating factor for now, but we don’t think that this is a sign of broader disinflation.

Fidelity and Vanguard have stopped processing donations to the Southern Poverty Law Center through their donor-advised fund platforms, citing the organization’s recent federal indictment on fraud charges.

The moves came April 29, eight days after a federal grand jury in Alabama indicted the SPLC on 11 counts of wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. Prosecutors allege that between 2014 and 2023 the group secretly funneled more than $3 million in donor funds to individuals affiliated with extremist organizations, including the Ku Klux Klan, Aryan Nations, and the National Socialist Party of America, while misleading donors about the use of the money.

Fidelity Charitable, which oversees more than 350,000 donor-advised accounts, notified customers that the SPLC is no longer an eligible grant recipient, the NY Times reports. “Fidelity Charitable is aware of an ongoing governmental investigation into Southern Poverty Law Center,” the company wrote in an email to a donor. “Consistent with our grant-making standards and practices, the organization is not an eligible grant recipient during the ongoing investigation.”

Vanguard Charitable issued a similar denial when a donor requested a grant. “The organization has had allegations and/or charges brought against them for activities that may call into question their ability to carry out their tax-exempt charitable purpose,” the company stated.

Both sponsors have long-standing rules that allow them to reject grant recommendations when legal issues arise. Fidelity Charitable’s guidelines state that recommendations “might” be declined if an organization “is being investigated for alleged illegal activities or noncharitable activities, such as terrorism, money laundering, hate crimes or fraud,” or if other federal or state agencies are investigating the group.

Vanguard Charitable’s policy is triggered by any criminal indictment from state or federal authorities. A Vanguard spokeswoman said the sponsor makes grants “only to organizations that meet I.R.S. eligibility requirements” and pauses funding “while the matter is pending” when charges are filed. The company does not evaluate the substance of the allegations, she added.

Fidelity Charitable distributed $18.3 billion in grants last year. The SPLC now joins a list of organizations the sponsor has paused under its due-diligence rules.

Context of the Indictment

The Department of Justice announced the indictment April 21. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and other officials described the case as involving deception of donors. The SPLC has denied the allegations, called them politically motivated, and said its payments were part of a legitimate informant program that provided intelligence to law enforcement. The group has filed court motions seeking grand jury transcripts and restrictions on public statements by prosecutors.

The SPLC has not lost its tax-exempt status. Legal experts note that donor-advised fund sponsors can still act on investigations or indictments even without a final conviction or IRS revocation.

Turnabout is Fair Play, Bitch

The move carries extra bite because of what happened three years ago. Back in 2023, the SPLC released a report blasting donor-advised fund sponsors – naming Fidelity and Vanguard among them – for supposedly bankrolling “hateful and extremist beliefs.” The same organization that once criticized these platforms for lax standards now finds itself on the receiving end of their risk controls.(Fidelity notably stopped advertising on ZeroHedge during this period, so we assume they bent the knee). 

Not all donor-advised fund providers have followed the same path. Daffy, a newer platform, continues to allow donations to the SPLC, stating that it generally relies on the IRS’s determination of tax-exempt status. The SPLC remains in good standing with the IRS, the company said. Charles Schwab’s affiliated DAF platform had not issued a public statement as of Wednesday.

Summary

• Israeli Defense Minister Katz: “soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come.” Oil spikes on this and new reports of Israeli defense build-up at ports, air hubs.

• Not giving up nuclear program: Iran will “guard” its “advanced technologies” like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written speech read aloud by state TV. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”

• US military teases cutting-edge, not yet tested in battle, hypersonic missiles for Mideast region as CENTCOM head set to brief Trump on further military options at White House.

• Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.

*  *  *

Oil Spikes on Israeli Defense Chief’s Threats of New Strikes

Israel Defense Minister Katz has said in a Thursday briefing: “It is possible that soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come,” according to a local reporter.

According to more, he said that while Israel supports the United States’ diplomatic efforts with Iran, it may “soon be required to act again” to remove the “existential threats” posed by the Islamic Republic.

“Iran has suffered extremely severe blows over the past year, blows that have set it back years in all areas,” Katz continued at a military ceremony. “US President Trump, in coordination with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is leading the effort to complete the campaign’s objectives in a way that ensures Iran will not return to being a threat to the existence of Israel, to the United States, and to the free world for generations to come,” he added. “We support this effort and provide the necessary backing, but we may soon be required to act again to ensure the objectives are achieved.” Oil prices shooting back up on the headline, and as Israeli media reports on a new military build-up and US defense aid at the country’s ports…

Khamenei: Protect Nuclear Program, Gulf Region Will Have Future Without America

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has never released video or voice messages, and he’s still not been seen or even photographed since the war’s start, and is believed to be severely injured and recovering. State TV on Thursday read aloud his written speech, which struck a defiant tone, declaring that the only place Americans belonged in the Persian Gulf is “at the bottom of its waters” and that a “new chapter” was being written for the whole region. State media cited security as the reason for having to read aloud his statement.

Khamenei says Iran will closely guard and protect its nuclear and missile capabilities, a clear and direct rejection of President Trump’s demand to hand over enriched uranium as the basis for a deal. Iranians will cling to the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities “as their national capital and will guard them like water, land and air borders,” Khamenei said.

“By God’s help and power, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America, one serving the progress, comfort and prosperity of its people,” Khamenei continued. “We and our neighbors across the waters of the Persian Gulf and the (Gulf) of Oman share a common destiny. Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away to act with greed and malice there have no place in it – except at the bottom of its waters.” He also vowed Iran’s forces will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”

US Teases Hypersonic Missiles, CENTCOM to Brief Trump

As we detailed Wednesday night, United States Central Command has requested deployment of the Army’s long-delayed hypersonic Dark Eagle to the Middle East for potential use against Iran, seeking a longer-range capability to strike ballistic missile launchers deep inside the country, Bloomberg first reported. If approved, the move would mark the first deployment of the hypersonic system, which remains behind schedule and has not been declared fully operational, even as Russia and China have already long ago fielded their own versions.

The Pentagon has claimed time and again of late that it has local air superiority, meaning that in some parts of Iran its aircraft can operate without facing much of a threat. And yet dozens of MQ-9 aircraft, plus several crewed fighters, have been downed, showing that other parts of Iran’s airspace remain dangerous.

The Bloomberg report hit just as Axios rehashed an earlier report, according to which President Trump will receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper. The briefing signals that “Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations either to try to break the logjam in negotiations or to deliver a final blow before ending the war.”

Meanwhile the Iranian side has been claiming dozens of its vessels have breached the US naval blockade, which the Pentagon has been denying. Others say that while some ships have traversed the strait, they have not actually fully crossed the blockade.

Fifty two Iranian vessels have crossed a US-imposed blockade of Iranian waters within a 72-hour period…
https://t.co/mZrwK5qijI

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 29, 2026

IAEA Chief on Global Energy Crisis, Oil

The head of the International Energy Agency (IAEA) has emphasized in new remarks that the world is facing its biggest energy crisis in history due to the war. “The oil markets and gas markets are going through big difficulties. When I looked last time, the oil price was over $120 which is putting a lot of pressure on many countries,” executive director Fatih Birol said at a conference in Paris. “Our world is facing a major economic and energy challenge.”

Indeed, benchmark Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.

Iranian leadership in the meantime continues to troll the US over rising oil and gas prices, using its significant geographic leverage over global markets…

3 days in, no well exploded.We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here.
That was the kind of junk advice the US admin gets from people like Bessent who also push the blockade theory and cranked oil up to $120+. Next stop:140. The issue isn’t the theory, it’s the mindset.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 29, 2026

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

• US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported citing sources; plan includes a short and powerful strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock. Other options expected to be presented include a plan to take over part of the Strait to allow for commercial shipping, which could involve ground forces, and a special forces op to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile.
• US CENTCOM has asked to send the Army’s hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• US CENTCOM said the US navy has redirected 42 vessels from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and that the military is fully committed to enforcing the blockade.
• US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu that Israel should only take surgical military action in Lebanon and avoid a full resumption of the war, Axios reported.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said sprinting for the finish line with Iran, according to Fox Business; willing to do secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers. Every day adding more economic pressure to Iran. Close to half a billion in Iran-related crypto seized. Consumers and stock market are looking through Iran. UAE and others have requested swap lines, swap lines are not a bailout.
• Iran lawmaker Mottaki says a naval blockade would amount to a declaration of war, and that fighters could decide as soon as tomorrow or next week to remove such obstacles via military action.
• Iran’s Navy Commander said the Islamic Republic will soon unveil a new weapon that would deeply terrify the enemy, IRNA reported. He said Iran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea. Condemned the US’s illegal seizure of several Iranian vessels as part of the blockade, which he said amounted not only to “piracy” but also “hostage-taking”.
• Iran’s Navy commander warns that Iran will soon face its enemies with a very dreadful weapon that will strike fear into their hearts, according to Press TV.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said channels of dialogue with officials in Washington and Tehran remain open, Al Hadath reported. ““The clock on diplomacy has snit stopped. We remain hopeful for a negotiated settlement on this issue. We will continue with our sincerest efforts”,.
• China’s Military said they conducted combat readiness patrols near Scarborough Shoal, according to a statement.
• “No point” in negotiating over zero enrichment, Iranian lawmaker said, Al Jazeera reported; adding “I have no objection to going to the negotiating table, but we should have looked more closely at how to proceed”.
• The US administration is asking countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reported. The Maritime Freedom Construct would be a US-led coalition that would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.
• A surveillance drone near the US embassy in Baghdad has been shot down, according to Iraqi security sources.
• Iranian Navy Commander said we have closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian sea side and will take swift action if enemy advances, Al Araby reported.

The statewide average for 87-octane gasoline in California has topped $6 a gallon as the Iran-war-driven global energy crunch ripples across the West Coast, the hardest-hit U.S. region. Meanwhile, the national average remains above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold, hovering around $4.30, according to AAA data as of Thursday morning. It’s clear that bad ‘green’ energy policies by unhinged, left-wing politicians in the Golden State have left the state’s energy complex in a total mess, with no buffers.

“That’s the highest since October 2023. No other state has ever surpassed the $6-a-gallon mark. At the outset of the war, the price in the Golden State was $4.64 a gallon,” Bloomberg wrote in a note earlier.

Beyond gasoline, diesel prices in California now average a staggering $7.48 per gallon, up from $4.98 one year ago.

On the national level, gasoline prices continue to climb, now at $4.30 and remaining above the politically sensitive $4 level for one month.

Also on the national level, diesel prices – the fuel that keeps the economy humming – are around $5.49 and have yet to reach their previous high of approximately $5.69 in early April.

West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude benchmark, jumped to nearly $110.50 a barrel overnight, while Brent, the global benchmark, topped $126. This spike in oil prices was due to continued uncertainty over a near-term peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, as well as Trump laying the groundwork for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, according to MSM reports.

GasBuddy head analyst Patrick De Haan wrote on X, “WTI and Brent pushing higher after Trump says to expect prolonged blockade on the Strait,” adding, “Expecting big gas price hikes as early as noon for MI, IN, IL, WI, and perhaps OH.”

With the national average for gasoline above $4, we have already detailed emerging consumer behavior shifts at gas stations and convenience stores. Actual demand destruction should arrive north of $5 gas.

Read:

• Here’s What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

• Here’s What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

Let’s not forget we’ve outlined how the global energy crisis ripples across the world, already impacting Asia and Europe, and for the U.S., will affect California the hardest (read why).

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. senator and his team say they have uncovered additional evidence that federal officials worked to evade requests made under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

Several emails obtained by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) showed personnel with the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were aware of FOIA requests and sought to evade them. FOIA enables people to request records from the government. It requires officials to retain and produce requested records, subject to certain exemptions.

In a Nov. 26, 2022, missive, Allison Lale, a medical officer with the CDC, asked a colleague about receiving safety analyses of COVID-19 vaccination from the FDA.

Pedro Moro, a CDC epidemiologist, responded. “I think that because of the FOIAs we may have asked FDA to stop sending these weekly data mining outputs,” Moro wrote.

“Oh interesting,” Lale said. She added that during calls for a CDC-managed program, “we used to just verbally mention” that certain terms had not triggered safety signals, or signs vaccines were causing problems.

“But we could also leave it out if that [sic] this creates more hassle,” she added.

In a separate email chain, FDA officials were told by an FDA vaccine safety analytic expert, Dr. Ana Szarfman, that the approach they were using to analyze the safety of COVID-19 vaccines was faulty. The information sparked a long discussion, during which officials considered asking the expert to contact an outside expert on the matter.

“Before we potentially reach out to Ana, we should meet internally – many considerations not suited to email…” David Menschik, an FDA official who distributed the data mining reports, wrote on April 15, 2021.

“Sounds good,” Bethany Baer, another FDA worker, responded. “Happy to meet and discuss anytime open on my calendar.”

Johnson, the chairman of the House Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said during an April 29 hearing that the emails served as “additional evidence of how federal officials avoided creating a paper trail to prevent transparency and public disclosure.”

A top CDC official’s emails were missing, the government told Johnson in 2025.

A grand jury charged Dr. David Morens, a former official with the National Institutes of Health, a component of the Department of Health and Human Services, this week with conspiring to destroy some records and conceal others, after he allegedly wrote, in missives obtained by journalists and Johnson, that said he wanted to use a personal email address to evade FOIA.

In one email cited by prosecutors, Morens said in 2020 that he wanted to “keep this correspondnce [sic] off of USG emails for obvious reasons, so am sending from gmail.” He added later, “I am under Multiple FOIAs already.”

In another, a co-conspirator told Morens that he was using Morens’s Gmail address “to keep you out of the FoIA target.”

Fauci advisor David Morens admits in an email that he “learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after i am foia’d but before the search starts” https://t.co/sn6hvwDF7R pic.twitter.com/1MroXRWNQO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 28, 2026

The National Institutes of Health declined to provide a comment on the charges.

Despite efforts to conceal, the subcommittee acquired the emails he just released thanks to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s responsiveness to subpoenas, Johnson said.

Neither the CDC nor the FDA, nor their parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services, responded to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Lale, Moro, Baer, and Menschik still work for the government. Lale, Moro, and Baer did not return inquiries by publication time. A query to Menschik returned an automated message saying he is on extended leave.