With Brent surging to a new post war high overnight, rising as high as $125 on fear of an imminent resumption of hostilities in Iran, which dragged yields higher, and also pushed the USDJPY above 160 for the first time since late March, overnight Japan made clear – again – it wouldn’t take it any more, with the usual round of jawboning.

• *KATAYAMA: WE ARE MONITORING FX MARKET WHILE YOU ARE ON HOLIDAY
• *KATAYAMA: WE ARE NEARING TIMING TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX

Then

• *MIMURA: WE ARE NEARING TIME TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX
• *MIMURA: THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING BEFORE ACTION

Then

• *JAPAN PM TAKAICHI HOLDS PHONE TALKS WITH IRAN PRESIDENT: KYODO
• JAPAN PM TAKAICHI: I HAVE WORKED TO ENSURE PASSAGE OF JAPANESE-RELATED VESSEL THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ” RTRS

And while the market had grown used to constant jawboning by Japanese officials, this time Japan finally put its money where its mouth was, and with the USDJPY extending gains after all this verbal diarrhea, at precisely 4am ET, or just as Japan was closing (as we head into a long weekend, with most of Asia off tomorrow and Japan kicking off with golden week starting Monday to Wednesday 6th May), the USDJPY tumbled sharply, and then continued to slide for the next 4 hours, plunging as much as 500 pips to a session low of 155.57.

The move which strengthened the yen by the most since 2023…

… immediately prompted speculation of intervention by Japan’s authorities, especially since in recent weeks Japan had been jawboning not only against the yen but also oil prices, which mysteriously also tumbled from a multi year high.

There were early signs that Japan was indeed involved, with some 57BN in USDJPY volumes this morning, far above normal average. Note, previous intervention volumes in 2022 and 2024, EBS volumes had gotten up to around 70BN (for 29apr24 and 21oct22). On Friday 23 January 2026 on US rate check day – EBS volumes got to around 50BN.

And while normally we would have to wait days if not weeks for confirmation that the BOJ was in the market, today mercifully we got confirmation early on when the Nikkei reported that the Japanese Finance Ministry and the Bank of Japan carried out exchange rate intervention to buy yen and sell dollars on Thursday. A government official confirmed to Nikkei fact of intervention in an interview with the Nikkei.

“The government and the Bank of Japan intervened again, buying yen, causing the yen to surge against the dollar to the 155 yen target”, the Nikkei reported.

There was no immediate comment on whether the BOJ was also intervening in oil, but it would not be surprising if they did (although it would be a first).

The problem for Japan, and the reason why the MOF/BOJ had held out for this long before intervening, is that by doing so they have once again blown their load, so to speak, and now the USDJPY has a clear path to rise even higher – our target is now 170 and potentially much higher since the BOJ so stubbornly refuses to raise rates, which means that either the yen or JGBs will have to be the buffer for Japan’s surging inflation. 

In what can only be described as one of the biggest single-day victories for the Second Amendment in decades, the DOJ and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives dropped a bombshell yesterday: a landmark package of 34 regulatory actions designed to slash red tape, repeal overreaches, modernize outdated rules, and refocus the agency on actual criminals instead of law-abiding Americans.

The announcement, made by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and newly confirmed ATF Director Robert Cekada, marks the culmination of the “New Era of Reform” launched in 2025 under President Trump’s Executive Order 14206, “Protecting Second Amendment Rights.” Officials described it as the most comprehensive overhaul of ATF regulations in the agency’s history.

“This Department of Justice is ending the weaponization of federal authority against law-abiding gun owners,” Blanche declared. Cekada added that the reforms ensure regulations are “clear, legally sound, and narrowly tailored,” with enforcement now zeroed in on “willful violators and criminal actors, not inadvertent compliance issues by responsible owners and licensees.”

“The Second Amendment is not a second-class right.” 

The Big Wins That Matter Most to Gun Owners

The package is broken into clear categories that read like a 2nd Amendment wish list (how did we fall so far?):

Repeals & Rollbacks (The Headlines)

• 11P: The hated 2023 Stabilizing Brace (Pistol Brace) Rule is officially being rescinded. Multiple courts had already blocked it – now it’s being formally buried.
• 27P: The 2024 “Engaged in the Business” rule – the one that tried to turn occasional private sellers and gun-show participants into federal licensees – is being rescinded/revised.
• The 2024 machine gun definition tweak following the Supreme Court’s Garland v. Cargill decision is finalized.
• The Youth Handgun Safety Act notification requirement for FFLs is on the chopping block.

Modernization

• 01P & 07P: A modernized Form 4473 and authorization for full electronic recordkeeping by FFLs. Whether 01P will prevent future admins from enacting another “zero tolerance” rule is the question.
• 08P: Defined retention periods for transaction records (public comment invited on the exact length). After the period expires, those forms can finally be destroyed – a direct blow to any notion of a permanent “billion-record registry.”

Real Burden Reduction for NFA Owners & FFLs

• 03P: Streamlined interstate transport for NFA items. If you’re traveling for less than 365 days, you file the form but no longer have to wait for ATF approval. For basically forever if you wanted to take a SBR/SBS or Machinegun outside of your state of residence you had to file a 5320.20 form and get permission from ATF to take the thing out of state. Now, if you’re gone for less than 365 days you can just file the form, and you don’t need to wait for approval once the rule takes effect. great for people who live in states like maryland and want to shoot at a range in VA or PA. 
• 13P & 15P: Joint spousal registration of NFA firearms and elimination of the CLEO notification requirement.
• 18P: Updated FOPA travel protections to clearly cover reasonable stops (hotels, gas, food) during lawful interstate transport.
• 19P: Updated rules for dealer machine gun sales samples (direction still being finalized).

Clarifications & Import Relief

• Training/simunition rounds are clarified as not “ammunition” under the GCA – making them easier to acquire and use.
• 04F: Major update to the Proscribed Countries List under the Arms Export Control Act. This lifts the long-standing de facto ban on importing firearms from most former Soviet-bloc countries (Russia remains restricted), finally allowing collectors and importers to legally bring in quality Eastern European and historical firearms again.
• Dozens of technical clean-ups on dual-use barrels, NFA serialization during conversions, straw-purchase language, “willfully” definitions, and more – all aimed at reducing ambiguity and litigation.

In total: 26 NPRMs (open for 90-day public comment), 6 Final Rules, 1 Direct Final Rule, and 1 Interim Final Rule.

The changes untangle years of ATF rules seemingly written to create confusion and trap honest people. Zero-tolerance enforcement hammered FFLs over minor paperwork errors. The brace rule turned millions of legal pistols into potential felonies overnight. The engaged-in-the-business rule threatened to criminalize private sales. Recordkeeping felt like it was building a de facto national registry.

This package doesn’t repeal the NFA or abolish the ATF – but it does the next best thing: it starts rolling back the worst abuses, modernizes the system for the 21st century, and tells agents to go after gang members and traffickers instead of grandma’s 4473 typo.

FFLs get lower compliance costs. NFA owners get practical relief on travel and registration. Importers get more options. Everyone gets clearer rules and the promise that old records won’t live forever.

How We Got Here

This didn’t happen in a vacuum. While the official rollout highlighted partnership with industry groups like the National Shooting Sports Foundation (which was on hand at the signing) and the Second Amendment Foundation (whose Executive Director attended and praised the effort), the groundwork was laid by years of relentless pushback from the broader gun rights community.

Gun Owners of America played an especially important indirect role. Through aggressive litigation – most notably as a lead plaintiff in the Texas v. ATF case – GOA helped deliver a crushing legal defeat to the engaged-in-the-business rule. Just 13 days before yesterday’s announcement, the DOJ formally surrendered its appeal in that case, clearing the path for the rescission now included in the package. GOA’s long-standing demands for defined record retention, an end to gotcha enforcement, brace rule repeal, and NFA simplifications aligned closely with many of the reforms now being implemented.

In other words: the courtroom victories created the political space for these regulatory changes.

Meanwhile, the National Firearm Industry Trade Association (NSSF) hailed the landmark rulemaking package as a massive win – calling it “the result of months of NSSF working closely with the ATF and DOJ to identify and fix punitive regulations published during the Biden administration, when the ATF was used as a political weapon to force policies intended to hobble the firearm industry and infringe on Second Amendment rights.”

And the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) said in a statement “For far too long, ATF rules were a creeping fog of regulatory malarky, seemingly intended to create confusion for the gun community and chill the exercise of their rights. Today’s announcement shows that the current administration intends to help clear that fog. We are hopeful this new batch of rules does just that.”

Many of the biggest items are still NPRMs, so the 90-day public comment period is critical. Interested parties can reach out to Regulations.gov with support for the strongest possible versions – especially on record retention lengths and the machine gun sample rule.

The emergence of the humanoid robotics industry worldwide continues to gather pace. UBS analyst Phyllis Wang noted some of the most recent developments:

1. The 2026 Beijing Humanoid Robot Half-marathon Race reflected the advancement of hardware technology;

2. We are seeing financing accelerate among some companies, including several OEMs focusing on robotics AI and key component manufacturers (such as dexterous hands). For example, TARS has completed a pre-A funding round of US $455m. Local governments, industrial funds and industry leaders are all actively deploying the robot track.

3. Data collection channels are becoming more diverse, including direct collection from implemented applications, data collection centres and robot rental. During Tesla’s Q1 earnings call, management mentioned that it may unveil Optimus Gen 3 in late July or August, closer to the start of production, citing concerns over competitors copying its designs.

Earlier this year, Wang penned a note to the client outlining that shipments and deployments of humanoid robots on factory floors would gather pace this year and really ramp in 2027.

“For 2026, our base case forecast for global humanoid robot demand is 30,000 units. Regardless of total output in 2026, we expect a small proportion of robots which can complete simple tasks autonomously outside entertainment and robot training scenarios, given the gap between robot intelligence and customer needs,” Wang told earlier this week.

He continued, “We flag upside risk to our 2027-28 demand forecasts if robots used in industrial settings make significant progress. While humanoid products are still evolving, several leading OEMs are planning and deploying production capacity.”

“Tesla plans to build a 1m unit Optimus robot production line with production starting at end-2026. UBTECH plans a production capacity of 10,000 units this year, while Boston Dynamics (BD) plans a 30,000 unit capacity in 2028 for its Atlas robot,” he added.

For the latest deployments, Japan Airlines appears to have launched a humanoid robotics pilot program to address the labor shortage in airport ground-handling operations, according to the flight news website Flight360aero.

Japan Airlines (JAL) and GMO have announced that they will begin a pilot project next month using humanoid robots to address the labor shortage in airport ground handling operations.

Read more: https://t.co/RIh7qGEnDs#groundhandling #aviation pic.twitter.com/T4t2p8m0LD

— FL360aero (@fl360aero) April 27, 2026

“This is the first initiative of its kind in Japan to address the worsening labor shortage. Initially, the experiment will test the robots moving cargo containers from trolleys to near the aircraft. The airline is considering putting the robots into practical use from 2028 onwards,” the outlet said. 

As humanoid robot shipments ramp in the coming quarters, expect a steady stream of viral footage showing these robots replacing lower-skilled labor across warehouses, factories, retail, logistics, and service jobs.

The real question is: when does the backlash begin?

Just as the data center revolt erupted once folks saw their power bills soar, a robot revolt could follow once workers see humanoids moving from funny tech demo promotional videos onto factory floors.

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on April 29 said that he is on good terms with U.S. President Donald Trump, despite Merz’s recent remarks about the Iran war and Trump’s criticism of the German chancellor.

“From my perspective, my personal relationship with the ​U.S. President remains good,” Merz told reporters.

“I simply had doubts from the ⁠start about what was begun with the war in Iran. That is ​why I have made that clear.”

On April 27, the German chancellor said that the United States had been “humiliated” by Tehran after U.S. officials agreed to travel to Pakistan for peace talks.

“The Iranians are obviously very skilled ⁠at negotiating, or rather, very skilful at not negotiating, letting the Americans travel to Islamabad ​and then leave again without any result,” Merz said during a talk to students in Marsberg, Germany.

“An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards. And so I hope that this ends as quickly as possible,” he added.

Trump canceled the visit scheduled for April 25 by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan, citing a lack of progress in negotiations.

The U.S. president also criticized Merz in a Truth Social post on April 28, saying that the German chancellor “thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon.”

“He doesn’t know what he’s talking about! If Iran had a Nuclear Weapon, the whole World would be held hostage. I am doing something with Iran, right now, that other Nations, or Presidents, should have done long ago. No wonder Germany is doing so poorly, both Economically, and otherwise!”

Merz has said that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon.

Germany’s Economic Concerns

The German chancellor also on April 29 articulated his worries over the economic impact of the Iran war.

“In Germany and Europe we are ​suffering from the consequences, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Merz.

“This has a direct impact on our energy supply and a huge impact on our economic performance,” ​he said, adding that Berlin and Washington were in communication with each other.

Last week, Germany’s economy ministry cut its growth forecasts ​in half for 2026, with Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche saying economic recovery will be “slowed down by external geopolitical shocks.”

Germany ‘Stepping Up’

Trump ⁠has criticized NATO allies for not sending naval support to help open the Strait of Hormuz, which carries the traffic of about a fifth of the world’s oil. The strategic waterways has remained virtually shut since early March, causing disruption to energy supplies and market insecurity.

The U.S. president earlier this month said that the defense alliance could face a “very serious examining” for not supporting the United States during the Iran war to keep the Strait open.

“I’m very disappointed in NATO,” Trump told reporters on April 12 as he arrived at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. “They weren’t there for us. We pay trillions of dollars to NATO, and they weren’t there for us.”

Since then, the Department of War (DOW) said that it was working closely with European allies, notably Berlin, to get NATO allies to step up with their defense strategies and responsibilities.

In a series of posts on X, Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby said that Germany was now “taking a leading role” in this.

“After years of disarmament, Berlin is stepping up,” Colby said. “The DOW is already working closely with European allies, especially Germany, to accelerate this transition to NATO 3.0.”

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz shake hands as they meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on March 3, 2026. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Colby cited Germany’s new military strategy document, quoting General Carsten Breuer, who wrote in the document’s foreword: “The Military Strategy reflects the idea that, as the largest economy in Europe … Germany must and will assume a leading role within NATO—also at the military level.

“It represents a paradigm shift and underpins our ambition to play an active and substantial role.”

The strategy also says that Germany will take on “additional burdens,” including “targeted strategic responsibility for Europe at the conventional level.”

“This increases Germany’s strategic weight for our Allies, particularly for the United States.”

Vice President JD Vance is reportedly questioning assessments from the Department of War about the effectiveness of the US military campaign against Iran.

According to two senior White House officials cited by The Atlantic, Vance has expressed skepticism about recent Pentagon estimates on the depletion of US munitions since the launch of Operation Epic Fury. A report released last week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found the Pentagon used roughly half of its stockpiles of advanced interceptors and standoff munitions in the first five weeks of the conflict, which we reported here. But the Pentagon has consistently downplayed and rejected such negative assessments.

That report found that the US military tore through nearly half its Patriot interceptor inventory while heavily draining multiple other critical missile stockpiles.

The Atlantic article presents a Vance team which carefully seeks to avoid conflict with Trump and his top cabinet officials, by backing the Pentagon’s rosy picture of the war in public, while privately pushing back within internal deliberations:

Two senior administration officials told us that the vice president has queried the accuracy of the information the Pentagon has provided about the war. He has also expressed his concerns about the availability of certain missile systems in discussions with President Trump, several people familiar with the situation told us. The consequences of a dramatic drawdown in munitions reserves are potentially dire: U.S. forces would need to draw from these same stockpiles to defend Taiwan against China, South Korea against North Korea, and Europe against Russia.

Vance is concerned that the heavy use of weapons against Iran is degrading America’s readiness in the scenario it had to fight wars in Europe and East Asia. Already, the US has had to transfer major anti-air defense systems from the territories of key allies in Asia to the Middle East – and there’s little doubt Beijing quietly welcomes this scramble which takes pressure off and dwindles the US defense build-up related to the Taiwan situation.

There have been widespread reports that the White House is being presented with assessments which overemphasize the ‘good news’ related to the Iran campaign, and not vital information which would provide a more accurate picture. The Atlantic continues:

Pentagon leaders’ positive portrayals present an incomplete picture at best, people familiar with intelligence assessments told us. According to those internal estimates, Iran retains two-thirds of its air force, the bulk of its missile-launching capability, and most of its small, fast boats, which can lay mines and harass traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. At least in terms of resuming stalled maritime commerce, “those are the real threat,” one person told us.

And here is more on Vance’s objections, presented in the report:

Officials and outside advisers told us that the use of key weapons—including interceptors that defend against Iranian missiles, and offensive weapons such as Tomahawk and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff missiles—has produced a serious shortage that erodes America’s ability to fight future wars, despite an effort to quickly manufacture replacements. Vance has raised concern about munitions shortages in meetings with the president and other national-security officials. 

But while Vance apparently privately disputes Hegseth’s assessments, he has not directly challenged the Pentagon. A White House official said he “asks a lot of probing questions about our strategic planning, as do all of the members of the president’s national-security team.”

One additional bombshell line from The Atlantic report comes in the following:

Both Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, and General Dan Caine, who chairs the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have publicly said that U.S. weapons stockpiles are robust, and portrayed the damage to Iranian forces after eight weeks of fighting as drastic. Vance’s advisers, who spoke with us on the condition of anonymity, told us that the vice president has presented his concerns as his own rather than accusing Hegseth or Caine of misleading the president.

Trump has previously admitted to reporters that Vance was “maybe less enthusiastic” about a conflict which could grow increasingly unpopular among American voters, especially as gas and food prices continue to go up amid the Hormuz Strait standoff.

Still, Vance has recently hyped the nuclear threat out of Iran, strangely floating the idea of a nuclear suicide bomber – though this left experts and analysts wondering how he imagines this would be possible. It has been compared to former National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice under Bush and her “mushroom clouds” moment related to Iraq. “We don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud,” she had said, in an infamous moment of peak post-9/11 fearmongering.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Spain is sliding deeper into migrant-fueled disorder. Crowds of illegals have now stormed the Gambian embassy in Madrid, climbing over each other, scaling walls and fences to grab paperwork after socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government opened the floodgates with legal status for half a million of them.

Registry offices across the country are overwhelmed, social services are on the brink, and the chaos is exactly what critics warned would happen.

This latest outbreak comes just days after the regularization process kicked off. Thousands lined up for hours—or camped overnight—at more than 400 locations in regions like Catalonia, Andalucia, and Asturias. Many are still waiting for their documents to be stamped. But the rush turned frantic at the Gambian embassy on Tuesday when dozens of migrants, unable to secure needed vulnerability certificates, scaled the walls after learning all appointments were already booked.

🇪🇸🇬🇲 | Gambian immigrants storm their embassy in Madrid due to the collapse in the issuance of documents for Sanchez’s extraordinary regularization in Spain.

Inmigración de calidad 👌 pic.twitter.com/QTDbkqj27f

— BowTiedMara (@BowTiedMara) April 29, 2026

Panic set in. Police had to intervene to restore order. No arrests were made, and authorities are now keeping a close eye on the area for more attempts. The scenes, captured on video and shared widely on X, show the raw desperation the policy has unleashed.

As we detailed in our earlier reports, this is no surprise. Spain’s services were already crumbling under the weight of military-aged male migrants overwhelming registry offices.

Thousands have swarmed consulates in cities like Madrid, Bilbao, and Almería after the amnesty was first announced. Now the embassy walls are the new frontline.

Municipal unions in Seville warned last week of “extraordinary pressure” and overcrowding that is “lowering service quality and creating high tension among staff and the public in the Andalusian city.” They are pleading for more staff, better security, and compensation for workers facing the mess.

In Madrid, the pressure is even more glaring. Jose Fernandez, municipal delegate for Social Policies, told 20minutos: “We’ve gone from 1,500 daily requests at social services centres to 5,500. I think a hasty decision was made, perhaps even intended to create a collapse.” He added the process launched “without consulting the relevant authorities” and said, “I believe the best course of action would be to withdraw this decree and implement it through consensus.”

More absolutely mental scenes from Spain… https://t.co/U3iH1jEc0o

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) April 23, 2026

Spain’s 50 million population now includes around 10 million foreign-born residents. There are still roughly 840,000 undocumented migrants, mostly from Latin America. The government claims the amnesty will harness economic benefits for an ageing country. Sánchez himself wrote in an open letter: “Spain is ageing… Without more people working and contributing to the economy, our prosperity slows, and our public services suffer.”

He doubled down at a progressive summit in Barcelona, telling critics: “Spain is the daughter of migration and will not become the mother of xenophobia.”

🚨 The man who destroyed Spain, Pedro Sánchez smugly defends fast-tracking HALF A MILLION migrants:

“We are the children of migration in Spain… we will not be the parents of xenophobia… we are proud to be on the right side of history.”

Classic globalist treason — cheering the… pic.twitter.com/p0EsXL6CM6

— Don Keith (@RealDonKeith) April 18, 2026

But the right-wing opposition sees it differently. Vox spokesman Pepa Millán said the plan “attacks our identity” and vowed to appeal to the Supreme Court. Vox leader Santiago Abascal has called it an accelerating “invasion.” The Popular Party’s Isabel Díaz Ayuso, president of Madrid, threatened her own court challenge.

The economic picture tells its own story. Spain’s unemployment has dipped below 10 percent for the first time since 2008, but about 90 percent of new jobs go to immigrants while income per person has barely grown. The country adds 140,000 new households each year but builds only around 80,000 new homes—fueling a housing crisis that hits native Spaniards hardest.

This is the same pattern playing out across Europe: leftist governments signal weakness, migrants pour in, systems buckle, and citizens foot the bill. Sánchez’s progressive agenda may dress it up as “justice” and economic necessity, but the pictures from Madrid’s streets and embassy walls show the reality—uncontrolled inflows reward law-breaking and strain every public service.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Did the UAE just trigger a once in a century shift in global energy markets?  The United Arab Emirates on Tuesday said it was quitting OPEC by May 1st after 60 years as a member, dealing a blow to the cartel ​as the Iran war exposes discord among Gulf nations and Iran.

The exit of the UAE, one of the group’s biggest producers with 15% of total exports, weakens ‌OPEC’s control over global oil supplies and widens a rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.  Furthermore, the dissolution of OPEC greatly hinders Iran’s ability to wield oil exports as economic leverage in the future.  

The name of the game for OPEC is zero competition and artificial supply scarcity.  OPEC was formed in the 1960s as a trade consortium of oil producers but it became an economic weapon in the 1970s to maintain pressure on the US and any other nations providing aid to Israel.  This led to a stranglehold on 40% of the global oil supply and an initial explosion in gas inflation.  Prices quadrupling at the pump, feeding into a decade long stagflation event.

Restricted exports became the status quo, and higher prices the norm in the decades since (with brief moments of relief).  Iran, by extension, has long benefited from this bottleneck as an OPEC member.  But the world of energy just changed dramatically. 

An independent UAE no longer constrained by OPEC limits now has the ability to increase production from 3 million barrels a day to over 5 million barrels per day.  The introduction of renewed competition is likely to inspire higher production rates in Saudi Arabia as well.    

In his first public comments since the announcement, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters in ​a telephone interview that the decision was taken after examining the country’s energy strategies. He said the UAE had not discussed the issue with any other country. “This ​is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” ⁠Mazrouei said.

He also said the world would demand more energy, implying the UAE would be positioned to meet that need.  Meaning, the UAE is attempting to strategically jump ahead of the competition in a bid to flood markets with oil as the situation in the Hormuz winds down.  Saudi Arabia has also stated intentions to boost production into 2027.  

This suggests that the post-Iran war era will be a supply side bonanza with far lower energy prices over the course of the next two years.  It could be a complete upending of the last 50 years of throttled markets.  

The UAE is well positioned to weather the crisis in in the Hormuz with its Habshan–Fujairah (ADCOP) pipeline, which bypasses the Hormuz entirely and moves around 2 million barrels per day.  The advantage allows them to lead the export pack when the war ends.  

An inevitable ramp up in competitive production in the Gulf as well as fading opposition to increased drilling and refinement in the US will lead to long term energy security for the west.  However, the short term view is less rosy.  In the best case scenario, with the Hormuz reopened within the next two months, shipping through the strait will still need to recover until the end of 2026.  

Gas prices would fall to around $3.50 per gallon by the end of the year, with prices dropping below $3 per gallon in 2027.  Beyond 2027, the drop in prices will be significant; the breakup of OPEC’s largest contributing members is an unprecedented market event with world changing ramifications.

The Iran war is a primary contributor to this shift, but in order to gain any benefits the Hormuz will have to reopen sooner rather than later.  The greater strategic picture is the end of Iran’s oil leverage, which the regime will seek to resist as much as possible. 

Recent reports of a “tank top” and Iran’s dwindling storage capacity make negotiations a priority for the regime, otherwise, the loss of oil wells caused by shutdowns and pressure damage could ruin their ability to export for years to come.  It would seem that the UAE and other Gulf exporters are positioning for this eventuality.    

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian.org,

While embattled PM Sir Keir Starmer takes a pointless grilling on the even more pointless existence of Peter Mandelson, other members of his cabinet were busily paving the way for the next construction phase of our increasingly dystopian society.

Speaking to Sky News earlier today, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson promised…

“more action to keep young people safe online, including around social media”.

Which is delightfully vague.

Education Minister Olivia Bailey kept her cards similarly close to her chest, whilst trying to sound forceful:

“It is a question of how we act, not if, but to put this beyond any doubt, we are placing a clear statutory requirement that the Secretary of State ‘must’, rather than ‘may’, act […] We are clear that under any outcome, we will impose some form of age or functionality restrictions for children under 16.”

So we know they’re going to do something…we just don’t know what. And, if I had to guess, neither do Bridget or Olivia. Neither seems like the kind of people that get kept in the loop, and that flavour of waffle is usually the reserve of those who have no idea what’s going on.

Many commenters – both for and against – have interpreted this promised action as an Australia-style social media ban for children. Certainly, that’s what Conservative MP Laura Trott seems to think in her champagne-popping tweet:

…but the signs might be pointing in another direction.

After all, the Social Media Ban is practically on the books. It was introduced as an amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools bill, and has already passed the Lords four times. It could have become law already, but Ministers and MPs have repeatedly overturned the vote, declaring the need for further consultation.

Then, earlier today and coinciding with this government pledge to take action, the Independent published a report that suggests Australia’s social media ban doesn’t work.

Two thirds of Australian teens still using social media despite under-16s ban

The article quotes the head of the Molly Rose Foundation, who warns “an Australia-style ban would not deliver the improvements in online safety that parents and children deserved”:

“These results raise major questions about the effectiveness of Australia’s social media ban and show it would be a high stakes gamble for the UK to follow suit now,” the foundation’s head Andy Burrows said.

“Proponents of a ban argue it offers an immediate and decisive firebreak but the early evidence from Australia shows it only lets tech firms off the hook and fails to give children the step change in online safety and wellbeing they need.”

That’s interestingly timed, don’t you think? Why discredit the ban if the plan is to follow suit?

Sky’s article has their Technology Reporter list potential alternatives, including bans on infinite scrolling, or “digital curfews” that lock children’s accounts after a certain time.

It would be reasonable to assume, based on this, that whatever the UK government eventually does will be somehow…different. Perhaps stricter or enforced differently, perhaps centered on devices rather than platforms.

There are plenty of possibilities.

The head-scratching question is “why?”, and the only answer I can see that makes any sense is that Independent is telling the truth and Australia’s ban doesn’t work –  i.e for its real intended purpose (mass surveillance).

Maybe, and this is rampant speculation, but maybe the inevitable uptick in VPN usage actually made it harder to track people’s data and activity to the extent it offset the utility of and effort required in enforcing the ban.

Like I said, speculation, but we have an explanandum in need of an explanation.

Of course, it could be argued the specifics don’t really matter – because no matter the legislation or regulation, it can only be enforced one way: By mandating age verification for everybody, and using that to introduce digital IDs.

If it’s all heading in the same direction in the end, maybe picking apart the details is a waste of our time, maybe the differences only exist to create the illusion of variety or impression of dissenting views.

But it could be there’s something to learn, and perhaps in reading the wrinkles there’s insights to be gained that could help us resist when the government finally tell us what “restrictions” they’re putting in place.

What people take pride in says a lot about how they see their country.

Across Europe, those sources range from culture and history to political systems and personal freedoms. But in some countries, a notable share of people say they feel little pride at all.

This visualization via Visual Capitalist, by The European Correspondent, based on Pew Research Center data, breaks down the top three sources of national pride in each country surveyed.

Top Sources of National Pride, by Country

Here’s a closer look at the top three sources of national pride cited by adults in each country:

Culture dominates in countries like Italy (38%) and France (26%), while history plays a major role in Greece (37%). Meanwhile, Sweden stands out with 53% citing politics—by far the highest single-category share.

The Core Drivers of Pride Across Europe

In much of Europe, national pride is rooted in shared identity and heritage. Southern European countries like Italy and Greece emphasize culture and history, reflecting their deep historical legacies and global cultural influence.

Elsewhere, people themselves are a key source of pride. Spain (32%) and France (24%) rank highly in this category, suggesting a strong sense of national community and social cohesion.

Where National Pride Is Weakest

Not all sentiment is positive. In the UK, 29% of respondents cite “negative feeling” when describing their country, which is higher than any single positive category. Hungary (23%) and Spain (25%) also show notable shares of dissatisfaction.

This aligns with broader research. According to Pew, individuals who express less pride are often those who do not identify with the governing political parties. In the UK specifically, findings from British Social Attitudes surveys suggest national identity has become more fragmented in recent years, often tied to political divisions.

These dynamics help explain why politics can be both a source of pride—as in Sweden—and frustration, as seen elsewhere.

Politics as a Source of Pride—and Division

Sweden stands out sharply, with 53% of respondents citing politics as a source of pride, which is the highest share of any single category in the dataset.

Germany (36%) follows at a distance. Meanwhile, in other countries, political dissatisfaction helps explain rising negative sentiment, particularly among those who feel disconnected from leadership.

Via Remix News,

Two German cities, Berlin and Hamburg, have spent at least €4 billion to house migrants since 2022, with the cost of hotels proving to be especially high.

In Hamburg, the cost to house asylum seekers alone has amounted to €597 million. In 2025 alone, the costs of hotel accommodation and meals for asylum seekers in Hamburg was €160 million, which does not include security and administrative costs.

However, that is just for hotels. It costs Hamburg approximately €1 billion per year when other accommodations are factored in, such as container villages, asylum centers, and state-run units.

The data on hotel costs was released in a Senate response to a parliamentary inquiry by the AfD, according to Nius news outlet.

The Senate noted that the city first utilized hotels for refugee housing in late February 2022, but the figures are drawing the ire of the AfD. Thomas Reich, the AfD parliamentary group’s budget policy spokesman, pointed out that asylum seekers are creating “ever larger budget holes.”

The Hamburg Senate cited Russia’s war in Ukraine, which required the rapid and significant creation of asylum seeker spots, but the goal, according to the Senate, is to move them out of hotels and into other forms of housing.

Notably, hotels are not the only accommodations that taxpayers are paying for, which means the total cost of housing is far higher than the €593 million figure, which only pertains to hotel costs.

Berlin

Hotel rentals for asylum seekers are perhaps the most expensive housing solution in all Western countries. While a container village costs approximately €20 per person per day, the average price for a hotel or hostel spot is €60. As a result, Berlin has sought to move away from hotel rentals. As of 2025, Berlin’s State Office for Refugee Affairs (LAF) reported housing between 3,300 and 3,500 people in hotels or hostels.

The total figures for Berlin regarding only hotel places are not currently available, but the total cost for the accommodation, care, and integration of refugees in the capital between 2022 and 2025 has reached an incredible €2.24 billion. As Remix News reported last year, the cost for housing migrants in the city had reached nearly €1 billion a year.

Berlin’s senator for integration, Cansel Kiziltepe, confirmed that the city had rented 20 hotels but advocated for a change in strategy:

“I have said again and again: It is more cost-effective for the state of Berlin if we accommodate people in decentralized accommodation – whether in containers or in buildings…I fear that accommodation in hotels and hostels could become a case for the State Audit Office.“

When the Berlin and Hamburg expenses are totaled since 2022, they equal at least €4 billion, but the true cost is actually higher when administrative and security are factored in, not to mention education, welfare transfers, and healthcare.

In total, Germany spends over €50 billion a year on migrants, including accommodation, education, integration, social welfare, and other costs.

Read more here…