Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
A negotiated settlement, land for peace is what I said in 2022. Terms now include mineral rights.
Lost in a Hobbesian World
Eurointelligence notes the EU is Lost in a Hobbesian World
For a European, being isolated is probably the worst thing that can ever happen to you. Not getting invited to the Munich Security Conference would be an unrecoverable career setback. When Emmanuel Macron invited a few selected leaders to a summit a couple of weeks ago, the big debating point amongst EU folk was, who was invited and who was not. It was not about what the meeting should accomplish. Sitting at a table is really important to Europeans.
This is all fine for as you are dealing with relatively unimportant things, like financial regulation. But this is not the mindset with which you want to fight a war. We have yet to meet a European with a worked-out strategy to defeat Vladimir Putin. We are red-liners. We argue from first principles. We claim that we will support Ukraine for however long it takes. This idea worked spectacularly well for the ECB in the fight against speculators. But it does not translate to wars.
Ukraine has lost the war. We have no strategy to change this. Of all the nonsense Trump said and tweeted last week – and most of it was nonsense – he was correct on the essential issue – that the war is not winnable. He told us during his campaign that he wants to cut a deal.
The Europeans are in their unfortunate situation on the cats’ table of international diplomacy because they outsourced strategic thinking. The US acts, we react. Trump speaks. We are outraged. When Trump threatens tariffs, we threaten retaliation. Strategic thinking means making sacrifices, thinking ahead, factoring in what your opponent will do in response to your actions, have a strategy for second-best outcomes, and one for retreat and defeat.
In a world in which strategic thinking counts, the EU is hopelessly lost.
Delusions of Nonsense
CNN reports Zelensky says ready to quit if it brings peace, pushes back on US demand for Ukrainian minerals
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was “ready” to resign as leader if it meant it would bring peace to his country, suggesting he could swap it for NATO membership – while also pushing back against US demands for Ukraine’s critical minerals and other natural resources as part of negotiations to end the war.
Asked at a press conference Sunday if he was ready to quit if it ensures peace for Ukraine, Zelensky said: “If (it guarantees) peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to resign, I am ready. I can exchange it for NATO.”
Earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that Kyiv joining NATO was unrealistic, upending the alliance’s stated policy that Ukraine was on an “irreversible path” to membership.
The Ukrainian president’s remarks come amid an ongoing spat with US President Donald Trump, who has called Zelensky a “dictator” for not holding elections while Ukraine remains at war.
Zelensky on Sunday also pushed back against Trump’s demand for a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s deposits of rare earths and other minerals as part of a draft “deal” Trump said would reflect the amount of aid the US has provided to Ukraine during its war with Russia.
“I am not going to recognize $500 (billion),” Zelensky said during a press conference at a forum marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The US was one of Ukraine’s closest allies under the Biden administration, providing the country with tens of billions worth of military aid. But Trump has made it clear that he thinks the US should no longer send aid to Ukraine without getting anything in return.
Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit
The New York Times reports Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit
President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed back on Sunday against demands from the Trump administration for billions in Ukrainian natural resources and for holding peace talks that exclude Ukraine, while announcing plans for a major summit of European leaders on Monday.
Mr. Zelensky suggested that in assailing Ukraine, Mr. Trump had chosen the wrong adversary.
“If peace for Ukraine requires me to step down, I’m ready,” Mr. Zelensky said on the eve of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Another scenario: I could trade my position for NATO membership, if that’s what it takes,” he added.
Mr. Zelensky has said he will not accept any agreement negotiated between the United States and Russia without Ukraine’s participation.
“This is how we see this negotiation table: Ukraine as part of Europe, Europe, the United States and Russia. That’s approximately how we envision it,” he said.
Mr. Zelensky has been advised by European allies to tone down his confrontation with the American president. But on Sunday, he did not back away from his earlier comments and repeated his assertion that Mr. Trump is living in a disinformation bubble.
Mr. Zelensky’s pushback on Sunday could further anger Mr. Trump, who is pressing for a minerals deal and a peace agreement on terms he wants to dictate.
“I am not signing something that 10 generations of Ukrainians will have to repay,” Mr. Zelensky said, noting that negotiations would continue. Drawing on Ukraine’s revenue from natural resources, he said, it might take 250 years to pay $500 billion, which he called an unrealistic sum.
On Friday, the United States proposed a new draft agreement, obtained by The New York Times, which still lacked security guarantees for Ukraine and included even tougher financial terms. The new draft reiterated a U.S. demand that Ukraine relinquish half of its revenues from natural resource extraction, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure.
Under the proposed terms, those revenues would be directed to a fund in which the United States would hold 100 percent financial interest, and Ukraine should contribute to the fund until it reaches $500 billion. That sum is more than twice the value of Ukraine’s economic output in 2021, before the war.
The agreement does not commit the United States to security guarantees for Ukraine, or promise further military support for Kyiv. The word “security” was even deleted from a formulation contained in a previous version of the deal, dated Feb. 14 and reviewed by The Times, which stated that both countries aimed to achieve “lasting peace and security in Ukraine.”
No, Yes, No, then Nonsense
Zelensky said no to a deal for minerals, then reportedly yes, then no again, and now nonsense about stepping down if the US will let Ukraine in NATO.
Heck, not even the EU wants Ukraine in NATO or the EU now because of the dollar commitment it would take.
And where is the EU going to get troops or weapons.
The EU announces a conference, fails to invite Trump, but Trump likely would not have gone anyway.
No Position to Make Demands
Neither the EU nor Zelensky is in a position to make demands. If Ukraine won’t give Trump mineral rights, perhaps Putin would.
The US will not let Ukraine in NATO, nor will Russia, and despite EU talk, the EU is not ready for that either.
Zelensky is driving for a bargain that neither the US nor Russia would accept.
When Zelensky pushed back, the terms offered by Trump got worse.
Questions of the Day
Q: Will the EU send troops?
A: No
Q: Will the EU give Ukraine enough weapons if the US drops support?
A: No
Q: Will the EU help rebuild Ukraine?
A: Perhaps a pittance
Q: Is there any point to a summit without Trump?
A: No
The EU wants to be at the table. Trump will make fun of table the EU set.
Negotiated Settlement
September 7, 2022: Q&A on Putin and Energy Price Caps, Does Anyone Have a Better Idea?
Two Good Ideas
- End the sanctions.
- Prepare for a negotiated settlement whether Ukraine likes it or not.
Instead, we are doing the opposite, compete with people suggesting there are no batter things to do than something that is downright asinine.
November 7, 2023: If the US Has a Goal in Ukraine or Israel, What the Hell Is It?
The US has already given Ukraine $75 billion. Biden wants another $100 billion for Ukraine and Israel. What exactly is the mission?
November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
February 16, 2025: Why is Trump Leading the Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Without the EU?
Because 1) no one else has a plan, 2) Trump’s plan is likely to work, 3) the EU would screw it up.
The Goal and a Mission
Like it or not, we now have a goal and a mission. They are one and the same, end the war.
The war will end as I repeatedly stated since 2022, a negotiated settlement.
You can agree or disagree with Trump’s approach or the appeasement of Putin. But you cannot change the facts.
The longer Zelensky holds out the more territory Ukraine will lose.
