Summary

• Trump recently met this week with oil and gas executives at the White House to address energy fallout, and as oil pushes higher: Axios.

• Trump warns Iran to “get their act together” and to “get smart” – and for the second time writes “no more Mr. Nice Guy”.

• Trump in 4am Truth Social post: “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!”

• Fresh White House statement indicates communication still open with Tehran, but still says “Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”

*  *  *

Trump Huddles with Oil Execs: Axios

President Trump recently met this week with oil and gas executives at the White House to address the energy fallout from the Iran war, per fresh Axios reporting, as supply disruptions push prices higher and create both opportunity and risk for the industry. Among those attending were Mike Wirth of Chevron, along with senior officials including Susie Wiles, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.

A White House official said, “The president meets with energy executives frequently to get their feedback on domestic and international energy markets,” with discussions covering domestic production, Venezuela, oil futures, natural gas, and shipping. It should be noted that while Trump “huddles” with oil CEOs, Republicans in Congress are still too scared to so much as pass a simple War Powers Resolution, or to have real robust debate over the merits of the Iran War.

The Middle East supply shock is obviously driving up global crude and US gasoline prices, which sets up for huge implications for Republicans come next fall’s midterms. Oil prices have extended their multi-day rally, surpassing $116 a barrel:

Brent crude futures for June rose $4.24, or 3.81%, to $115.50 a barrel by 1255 GMT, climbing for an eighth day to the highest level since March 31. The June contract expires on Thursday and the more active July contract was up 3.86% at $108.43.

Oil Pushing Toward Iran War Highs

Earlier in the morning, Brent crude oil has neared $115 per barrel, driven by the ongoing Hormuz Strait blockade and standoff, and war fears – in a seventh straight session of gains.

This latest move higher follows Tuesday night’s WSJ report that the US plans to extend its blockade of Iranian ports, intensifying fears of prolonged disruption through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. 

As a reminder, the president has told aides and his staff that he’s prepared to implement an extended blockade:

President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, U.S. officials said, targeting the regime’s coffers in a high-risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation Tehran has long refused.

In recent meetings, including a Monday discussion in the Situation Room, Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports. He assessed that his other options—resume bombing or walk away from the conflict—carried more risk than maintaining the blockade, officials said.

4am Truth Social

This isn’t exactly a ‘new’ threat, as it’s something he said on April 19 as well, but President Trump in a 4am Truth Social post warned Iran to “get smart soon” as the White House reviews military options for the Strait of Hormuz.

“Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!” Trump wrote early Wednesday, alongside an image showing him with a weapon and the message “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”

Members of Trump’s national security team presented multiple options during a Situation Room meeting this week, including whether to increase or reduce the US military presence in the strait and whether to adopt a more aggressive operational posture, NBC News reported, citing an unnamed US official and a person familiar with the discussions. According to the WSJ Tuesday evening, the president has told aides and his staff that he’s prepared to implement an extended blockade.

WH still Communicating With Tehran

And yet, the White House says negotiators are still in communication with the Iranians, who are “struggling to sort out their leadership situation” amid the war. Trump on Tuesday claimed Tehran officials told him the country is in a “State of Collapse” – though obviously it’s highly dubious they would communicate that to him.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told media that Trump would only enter into an agreement with Iran that “puts US national security first” and that “He has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.” However, the Iranians themselves have made it clear they would never just transfer their enriched uranium out of the country. Their latest proposal has centered on lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz first, and then leaving the nuclear issues for future negotiation after the war is resolved.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

The drama over Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Trump’s pick for next Fed chair appears to be over.

Moments ago, Warsh won the backing of the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday in a 13-11 party-line vote, putting him on track to be confirmed by the full Senate before Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15, Bloomberg reproted. 

Warsh’s nomination had been held up by Republican Senator Thom Tillis until the Department of Justice agreed last week to drop (for now) a criminal probe into cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Tillis, who saw the probe as “bogus” and a threat to the Fed’s independence on monetary policy, said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he received assurances the department wouldn’t reopen the case unless the Fed’s inspector general, who is also reviewing the project, sends a criminal referral.

As expected, Democrats weren’t won over: Senator Elizabeth Warren warned that Trump is still intent on controlling the Fed; Democrats have also demanded an end to a legal pursuit of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

“The stink of stagflation is in the air,” Warren said. She said confirmation of Warsh would help Trump dominate the Fed’s monetary policy. “Trump has not been subtle about his takeover,” she said.

The vote makes real the prospect of a Warsh-led Fed that promises the biggest shake up of the US central bank in years. Having raised the prospect of “regime change” as part of his bid to win Trump’s nomination, Warsh has promised to shrink the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet, establish a new framework for managing inflation and change how the central bank communicates with the public. He has, however, offered few details on how he might pursue each of these goals.

Warsh is almost certain to face heavy pressure from Trump over monetary policy. In a CNBC interview on April 21, the president said he’d be disappointed if Warsh didn’t cut rates as soon as he took office.

Meanwhile, Warsh has vowed to protect the Fed’s independence. In his hearing last week Warsh blamed the Fed for allowing inflation to surge following the Covid-19 pandemic. While he said high prices remain a problem for Americans, he also floated the idea of a new framework for dealing with persistent inflation, though didn’t offer specifics. He also steered clear of committing to a near-term path for interest rates and suggested Fed officials have made a habit of providing financial markets with too much guidance on where policy is headed.

The combination of Warsh’s calls for a smaller balance sheet, new ways to think about inflation and communication changes put Warsh in the spotlight to explain how he’ll defend the Fed’s independence, said EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco.

“Taken together, this points to a more centralized, less transparent and potentially more politically-exposed policy framework,” he said.

Earlier, Warsh and his wife, Jane Lauder, reported assets worth at least $192 million in financial disclosures filed as part of his nomination.  But his total net worth is likely much larger and makes him one of the wealthiest Fed officials in the central bank’s history. Bloomberg has estimated his wife’s net worth at $2.5 billion, many of which are market-dependent. Democratic lawmakers called for more scrutiny of Warsh’s assets, while Warsh has promised to quickly divest from certain funds for which he hasn’t disclosed the underlying assets, citing confidentiality agreements.

The U.S. is intensifying pressure on Iran and China across two fronts.

First, on the military side, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told top aides to prepare for an extended U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would strangle Tehran’s oil revenue.

Second, on the economic side, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is warning financial institutions about sanctions exposure related to Chinese independent “teapot” refineries, particularly in Shandong Province, due to their continued purchases and refining of Iranian crude.

Taken together, the message from President Trump to Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent is very clear: Washington is squeezing Iran’s oil revenue at both ends of the supply chain, through a continued blockade of the Hormuz chokepoint that enables exports and the Chinese refining network.

“China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, with teapot refineries accounting for the majority of these imports. This revenue ultimately benefits the Iranian regime, its weapons programs, and its military,” Treasury explained in a press release, adding, “Some Chinese teapot refineries have used the U.S. financial system to conduct dollar-denominated transactions and procure U.S. goods.”

What OFAC is doing is urging banks to tighten controls, conduct enhanced due diligence on transactions involving China-based refineries, and communicate sanctions expectations to correspondent banks.

Treasury also imposed sanctions on 35 entities and individuals for their roles in Iran’s shadow banking sector.

The reason the Treasury singled out Shandong Province is that the area in China is a core hub for China’s independent refineries.

Efforts to end the US-Iran war, now entering the third month, have morphed from an air campaign against Tehran to an economic war with hopes that the Trump administration can economically squeeze Tehran into a favorable peace deal that includes winding down its nuclear program.

“Iran’s shadow banking system serves as a critical financial lifeline for its armed forces, enabling activities that disrupt global trade and fuel violence across the Middle East,” Bessent said in a statement, quoted by Reuters.

“Illicit funds funneled through this network support the regime’s ongoing terrorist operations, posing a direct threat to U.S. personnel, regional allies, and the global economy,” Bessent said, adding any institution that facilitated or engaged with these networks was at risk of “severe consequences.”

OFAC has already imposed about 1,000 sanctions on Iran-related individuals, ships, and aircraft as part of a campaign to exert maximum economic pressure on Iran’s shadow banking.

Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, told Reuters that the Trump administration should go after Chinese banks that have supported Tehran.

“Washington keeps talking about waging a maximum pressure campaign, but it is still avoiding the one move that would actually matter,” Erickson said. “If you are not willing to target the Chinese banks propping up the regime in Tehran, you are not going for the jugular, you are running a charade.”

The U.S. economic pressure campaign on Tehran, as well as China, comes as Trump travels to Beijing next month to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk.

Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from Russian crude, and this latest disruption exposes how little slack remains in the system.

Kazakhstan shipped 2.146 million metric tons to Germany through Druzhba last year, up 44% from 2024, with another 730,000 tons delivered in the first quarter.

Poland says it has the technical capacity to handle additional flows, but port access, shipping schedules, crude availability and refinery configurations all matter, too. Replacing pipeline crude with seaborne barrels is rarely a one-for-one swap.

The episode also revives an old vulnerability in European oil security in that the infrastructure can be diversified on paper and still remain concentrated in practice, with Druzbha still running through Russia.

Alternatives do exist for Schwedt, but they are costlier and more complicated. The refinery has increasingly leaned on crude arriving through Baltic routes and Germany’s Rostock port, but those channels are limited.

There is a bigger signal here for the oil market. What looks like a regional supply disruption adds to a broader premium around logistics security, not just crude supply. In Europe, barrels are one question. Moving them is another.

And that distinction matters increasingly for pricing, refinery margins, and the value of secure non-Russian supply routes.

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The world’s top crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, is expected to slash its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude loading for Asia in June from the record-highs for May as the premiums of the Middle Eastern benchmarks eased this month.

Saudi oil giant Aramco is widely expected to announce in early May a reduction of the OSP of the flagship Arab Light crude by between $5 and $12 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average, off which Middle Eastern producers price their crude going to Asia, a Reuters survey of industry sources showed on Tuesday.

The Arab Light grade could see its OSP falling to a premium of $7.50-$14.50 over the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks for June, compared to a record-high premium of $19.50 for loadings for Asia in May.

In early April, Saudi Arabia hiked the price of Arab Light loading for Asia in May to a record-high premium over the Middle Eastern benchmarks as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz upended oil flows and roiled markets and prices.

The premium for May was the highest ever in Saudi pricing, although it was below the $40 per barrel premium over Oman/Dubai that some refiners and traders had expected.

Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes.

The pricing announcement follows the monthly OPEC+ gatherings at which the producers, led by Saudi Arabia, decide how to maintain market stability.

For the June pricing, the Reuters survey participants expect all other grades to also see price reductions of between $5 and $12 per barrel in the premium to Oman/Dubai.

The wide gap of $7 per barrel, in the expectations of the market suggests that traders and refiners in Asia aren’t sure how Saudi Arabia would approach the June pricing, as the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and only the Yanbu port on the Red Sea is regularly shipping out Saudi light crude to international markets.

Fresh reporting in Reuters says that NATO leadership is mulling ending its practice of holding annual summits as the Trump presidency has “cast a long shadow” over such meetings and as member states are looking for “less drama”.

For example, at the 2018 summit Trump threatened to walk ⁠out after bitterly complaining over allies’ low defense spending. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general at the time, wrote in a recently published memoir, “Had he made good on his threat to leave ​in protest, we would have been left to pick up the pieces of a shattered NATO.”

Also, in 2019 he exited summit early while lambasting then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “two-faced” after Trudeau was caught on a hot mike blasting Trump’s behavior.

One report recalls of the scene:

Footage emerged late on Tuesday that appears to show world leaders joking about Trump at the summit, which has been marked by sharp disagreements over spending and future threats, including Turkey’s role in the alliance and China, as well as a clash of personalities that triggered a flurry of incendiary language being deployed by leaders.

The video shows leaders including Trudeau, Johnson, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, and Princess Anne at the Buckingham Palace event on Tuesday evening.

In audio caught on a nearby microphone, Johnson asks Macron: “Is that why he was late?” before Trudeau interjects: “He was late because he takes a 40-minute press conference off the top.”

Trudeau adds: “Oh, yeah, yeah yeah. He announced … ” before he is cut off by Macron, who speaks animatedly to the group. Macron’s back is to the camera and his words are inaudible.

After an edited cut in the film, the footage later shows an incredulous Trudeau telling the group: “You just watched his team’s jaws drop to the floor.”

In his second administration, President Trump’s fierce criticisms have only grown, especially related to lack of help in the Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis, labeling the alliance a “paper tiger” and charging member states with being “free-loaders”.

One European diplomat expressed an increasingly common viewpoint among members: “Better to have fewer summits than bad summits,” the official said.

And, per Reuters: “Some diplomats and analysts have long argued that annual summits create pressure for eye-catching results that distracts from longer-term planning.”

The 2019 Trudeau hot mic incident:

.@JustinTrudeau, @EmmanuelMacron, @BorisJohnson and other VIPs shared a few words at a Buckingham Palace reception Tuesday. No one mentions @realDonaldTrump by name, but they seem to be discussing his lengthy impromptu press conferences from earlier in the day. (Video: Host Pool) pic.twitter.com/dVgj48rpOP

— Power & Politics (@PnPCBC) December 3, 2019

For now at least, NATO leadership is insisting it will be business as usual and these annual summits will proceed. “NATO will continue to hold regular meetings of Heads of State and Government, and between summits NATO Allies will continue to consult, plan and take decisions about our shared security,” a NATO official told Reuters. But Trump’s anti-NATO rhetoric is unlikely to cease anytime soon, setting up for more drama to come.

Authored by Mrigakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,

In a move toward fully autonomous warfare, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry plans to procure 25,000 unmanned ground vehicles by mid-2026. This initiative aims to replace human soldiers with robotic systems for all frontline logistics and double the 2025 deployment rate.

Reportedly, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that the ultimate goal is to have 100 percent of frontline logistics handled by robotic systems.

The strategy is already yielding results. In March alone, Ukrainian forces logged over 9,000 missions using ground robots for everything from delivering ammunition to evacuating the wounded.

A key development in this tech surge is the formal codification of the Bizon-L logistics robot. 

$330 million invested

Following a meeting with domestic manufacturers, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a strategic shift to stabilize the industry by signing UGV contracts through 2027. 

This move supports Ukraine’s ambitious goal to transition 100% of frontline logistics to robotic systems, a transition already well underway.

These unmanned systems are proving vital for high-risk logistics and medical evacuations, insulating soldiers from the most dangerous aspects of frontline operations.

To streamline its defense supply chain, Ukraine has invested roughly $330 million (14 billion hryvnia) since January to deliver over 181,000 systems, including drones and electronic warfare units, via a direct digital procurement platform.

Central to this surge is the Bizon-L, a logistics robot that was recently codified under NATO standards.

The Bizon-L is a heavy-lifter designed for the mud and snow of the Donbas.

This high-capacity UGV can transport 300 kilograms (661 pounds) over a 50-kilometer range and is now cleared for use by both Ukrainian forces and international allies.

Utilizing a combination of Starlink satellite data and radio links protected by thermal shielding, the Bizon-L is stepping in to perform last-mile deliveries — tasks previously handled by soldiers who were frequently targeted by Russian FPV drones. 

Central to this surge is the Bizon-L, a logistics robot that was recently codified under NATO standards.

The Bizon-L is a heavy-lifter designed for the mud and snow of the Donbas.

This high-capacity UGV can transport 300 kilograms (661 pounds) over a 50-kilometer range and is now cleared for use by both Ukrainian forces and international allies.

Utilizing a combination of Starlink satellite data and radio links protected by thermal shielding, the Bizon-L is stepping in to perform last-mile deliveries — tasks previously handled by soldiers who were frequently targeted by Russian FPV drones. 

Read the rest here…

There’s growing outrage and political division in Israel after news emerged that the government and defense ministry fulfilled a weapons contract with Germany, sending vital Arrow air defense missiles to Berlin during the middle of the Iran war.

At the very moment the missiles were being delivered, Israeli citizens were dying under Iran’s fierce ballistic missile retaliation attacks during the height of Operation Epic Fury.

The Jerusalem Post has “confirmed that Israel continued to send Arrow missiles to Berlin mid-war as part of a contract between the countries, even though Israel had a shortage of its own interceptors,” the publication writes.

“Some commentators upon learning this information have accused the Israeli government of allowing at least five persons to die and hundreds to be injured when the IDF did not use the Arrow to defend from certain attacks,” the report adds.

The Arrow was developed jointly with the United States and is designed to intercept long-range missiles, serving as the highest tier of Israel’s multi-layered defense.

The first Arrow was delivered to Germany in 2025, despite that starting with the last June war, it has been an open secret that Israel is running low on interceptors, and that it takes a significant amount of time to replenish them.

In April, we featured analysis describing how Israel only in the last few years grew to become Germany’s largest arms partner in a ‘mega deal’:

Israel’s delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany last year, which was its largest export deal ever at $4.6 billion, led to its share of Germany’s arms imports jumping from 13% during the period 2020-2024 to 55% during the period 2021-2025. At the same time, Israel remained Germany’s third-largest arms client at 10% of its exports from 2021-2025 compared to 11% of them from 2020-2024, with the slight 1% decrease likely being due to three-month-long curb on arms exports to it last year.

Why this matters is because Israel’s new role as Germany’s largest arms supplier might worsen its ties with Russia, especially if exports evolve from defensive systems like the Arrow 3 to offensive ones like the $7 billion deal for 500 rocket launchers and thousands of missiles that they’re now negotiating. Moreover, West Asian geopolitics might radically change after the end of the Third Gulf War, so Russia might not be able to reciprocally sell similar systems to Iran. Israel would then gain an edge over Russia.

Israeli officials have sought to downplay the Arrow deliveries for Germany, in some cases arguing that the benefits for Israel actually saves civilian lives – based on other defense items Israel gets in return.

Via Remix News,

The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has jumped to a new record high in a recent poll conducted by the opinion research institute Insa. In the poll, the AfD increased its lead over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU).

According to the “Sunday trend” poll, which is conducted on a weekly basis for the Bild am Sonntag, the AfD has reached a peak of 28 percent, extending its lead over the CDU/CSU alliance. While the party only jumped one point from the previous week, it not only marked the AfD’s highest value ever, but it also means the AfD is closing in on the psychological 30 percent it has long sought.

Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BamS: AfD 28 % | CDU/CSU 24 % | SPD 14 % | GRÜNE 12 % | DIE LINKE 11 % | BSW 3 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 5 %
➤ Übersicht: https://t.co/Gzilw3J3L9
➤ Verlauf: https://t.co/vnhJf7ub9S pic.twitter.com/jhBgFgmCqQ

— Wahlrecht.de (@Wahlrecht_de) April 25, 2026

The CDU/CSU remained unchanged at 24 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) maintains its position at 14 percent. The Green Party slipped to 12 percent after losing one percentage point, and the Left Party remains steady at 11 percent. Both the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the FDP would currently fail to enter the Bundestag, as each sits at three percent.

Despite the AfD’s high polling, all other parties continue to say they will not form an alliance with the AfD, which means the party is effectively locked out of power. Unless the AfD can find a coalition party that can give it a majority, the party will remain on the sidelines. However, if the AfD can maintain its current support or even increase it further, forming a coalition among the other parties could prove increasingly difficult in the future.

Insa is not the only polling firm showing the growth of the AfD. In a recent Yougov poll, the AfD reached 27 percent of the vote, while the CDU fell to just 23 percent.

The AfD’s surge comes at a time when soaring energy prices have left the German economy reeling, especially following the war in Iran, which has sent diesel prices between €2.20 and €2.50 a liter.

AfD co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, has become increasingly opposed to U.S. government actions. He quickly denounced the U.S. attack on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, labeling it a “violation of international law.” And in February, right after the attack on Iran, he expressed his “disappointment” at Trump’s broken promise to not start wars and blamed Israel for “dragging” the United States into war against Iran.

In March, Chrupalla also condemned what he said were Israel’s war crimes against Palestinians and Iranians, and just this month, Chrupalla called for the closure of U.S. bases in Germany. Even conservative Germans have long been skeptical of Trump, while the majority of Germans are deeply negative on the U.S. president.

Polling shows that 65 percent of Germans believe that Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza. According to ARD-DeutschlandTREND in March 2026, 60 percent of Germans consider the military offensive against Iran by the U.S. and Israel to be “not justified.” That result may look even worse now as energy prices have slammed the German economy.

In other words, Chrupalla may be adopting the positions that are sitting well with the German public.

At the same time, crime statistics released about a week ago show that migrant violence continues to dominate in Germany, with sexual crimes and serious violence in 2025 growing compared to the record numbers seen in 2024. Overall, crime fell slightly compared to 2024, but serious crimes grew. Most of the decline was due to the legalization of marijuana in late 2024, which resulted in a drop in drug offenses.

Foreigners account for approximately 42 percent of all violent crimes.

The AfD is calling for mass deportations, increased funding for police, an immigration moratorium, cutting pro-migrant NGO funding, and stricter laws to deter criminals.

Read more here…