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American Naval Academy Cadets Prepare For War With Stoic Philosophy

American Naval Academy Cadets Prepare For War With Stoic Philosophy

Authored by Ret Admiral Cem Gürdeniz via Mavi Vatan Geopolitics,

The United States Naval Academy at Annapolis, which has trained officers for the U.S. Navy since 1845, reports directly to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). There is no separate Naval Education and Training Command within its chain of command. Today, Annapolis is not the Navy’s only source of commissioned officers. The U.S. Navy also commissions officers through the Officer Candidate School (OCS) and the Naval Reserve Officers Training Corps (NROTC) programs conducted at universities across the country.

Each year, the U.S. Navy commissions approximately 2,500-3,000 new officers, of whom roughly 1,000-1,100 graduate from Annapolis. Although the Academy provides only about one-third of the Navy’s annual officer intake, it produces a disproportionate share of its future strategic leaders, fleet commanders, and candidates for the position of Chief of Naval Operations (CNO).

In American naval culture, Annapolis graduates are known as “Ring Knockers.” Their distinctive class rings symbolize far more than a shared educational background. They represent the strategic tradition, institutional memory, and elite leadership culture of American sea power. It is therefore no coincidence that Annapolis graduates have historically occupied a dominant position within the U.S. Navy’s admiralty and its most critical command appointments.

The Foundation of Imperial Power Is Naval Power

Throughout its history, the backbone of American global and imperial power has been its navy. During the Second World War in particular, aircraft carriers, battleships, cruisers, destroyers, submarines, and millions of tons of ammunition produced by American industry on an unprecedented scale were employed by commanders educated at Annapolis in pursuit of U.S. political objectives. The naval supremacy achieved at the end of the war elevated the United States to global leadership not only in military terms but also economically and geopolitically.

Yet the strength of a navy cannot be measured solely by its ships, weapons, or technology. The decisive factor is the strategic culture, value system, and intellectual tradition that shape the officers entrusted with commanding that force. To understand American naval power, one must therefore examine the historical, philosophical, moral, and spiritual environment in which its officers are educated. This is precisely what makes Annapolis unique and significant.

Annapolis is more than a military academy; it reflects the American state, society, and strategic culture. For that reason, understanding the education provided there and the intellectual outlook of its graduates requires an examination of the political and social environment in which the Academy operates. In particular, the place of religion in American public life and its influence on politics constitute an important element of this broader cultural context.

Religion and Its Place in American Politics

Religion continues to play a significant role in American public life and politics and has become increasingly visible in recent years, particularly through conservative Christian circles and the evangelical movement. Unlike the stricter model of secularism found in much of Europe, the United States has traditionally adopted an approach that does not exclude religion from the public sphere. As a result, religious influence remains evident across many aspects of American society, from education to politics.

Following the strengthening of U.S.-Israel relations after 1967 – and especially during the period that gained momentum after the September 11 attacks – the influence of Christian Zionist circles, particularly evangelical Christians, on American policy toward Israel became increasingly pronounced. Especially within the Republican Party, support for Israel is viewed not only as a strategic necessity but also as a religious obligation rooted in biblical interpretation. During the recent Israel-Iran confrontation, religious services, sermons, and spiritual guidance provided by military chaplains in some U.S. military units reflected this broader trend.

The influence of religion is also visible at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis. The campus contains nine chapels and spiritual support centers serving different faith communities. These institutions function not only as places of worship but also as centers for character development, ethical leadership, spiritual resilience, and the cultivation of the will to fight. Their presence demonstrates that religion has not been excluded from institutional life within the U.S. Armed Forces, rather, it continues to be regarded as one of the elements that strengthen morale, cohesion, and resilience. To fully understand the cultural environment in which Annapolis educates America’s future military and political leaders, the continuing prominence of religion in American society must therefore be considered.

Stoic Training for American Naval Officer Candidates

In recent years, the U.S. Naval Academy has undergone a remarkable evolution in its educational philosophy. Alongside traditional military instruction, Stoic philosophy has been incorporated into officer education, introducing cadets to the works of Marcus Aurelius, Seneca, and Epictetus. The objective is not to promote a new belief system, but to develop leaders capable of making sound decisions under uncertainty, enduring hardship, mastering fear, exercising self-discipline, and demonstrating strength of character in combat.

This approach has moved well beyond theory. During the 2024 and 2025 Plebe Summer programs, the Academy introduced a six-week voluntary Stoicism course for incoming midshipmen. Participants learned to distinguish between what lies within their control and what does not; to regard adversity as an opportunity for character development; to confront the possibility of death and failure with composure; to value inner discipline over external recognition; and to judge events rationally rather than emotionally. In this context, Stoicism is taught not as an ancient philosophical tradition, but as practical preparation for the psychological demands of war.

This educational shift also reflects a broader transformation in the U.S. Navy’s concept of leadership. At a time when artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are becoming increasingly central to warfare, the Navy seeks to produce officers who are not only technologically proficient but also capable of preserving sound judgment, emotional stability, and psychological superiority under the extreme pressures of combat. In the wars of the future, victory will depend not only on superior technology, but also on the character, resilience, and moral strength of those entrusted to employ it.

Why Stoicism?

Originating more than 2,300 years ago, Stoicism is a philosophy of life that teaches individuals to master their own minds in the face of events beyond their control. No commander can know with certainty what an enemy will do, how a war will unfold, or when death may come. In the face of such uncertainty, Stoic philosophy seeks to replace fear with reason, anger with composure, and despair with a steadfast sense of duty. Stoicism is therefore not a doctrine of passive fatalism but a philosophy for cultivating warriors capable of preserving their will and judgment under the harshest conditions.

This is precisely why Annapolis has reintroduced Stoicism into its curriculum. The objective is not to teach ancient philosophy for its own sake, but to equip future naval officers with the mental discipline required to make sound decisions under pressure, demonstrate psychological resilience, and remain focused on their mission regardless of circumstances.

This educational choice also reflects the U.S. Navy’s evolving understanding of “spiritual readiness.” The Navy seeks to unite personnel from different religious traditions – as well as those with no religious affiliation – around a common ethic of character, duty, and leadership. In this context, Stoicism provides a secular, non-sectarian framework for moral and character development that can serve as common ground for all. States may adapt to changing patterns of religious belief within society, but military institutions cannot rely on a shared faith alone. To prevail in war, they require officers who share a common character rather than a common creed.

The broader message Annapolis seeks to convey is that the wars of the twenty-first century will not be decided solely by artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, or autonomous systems. They will also be contests of the human mind, resilience, and the will to fight. Technology remains only an instrument of war; victory ultimately belongs to those who can employ it wisely under pressure, hardship, and uncertainty.

Perhaps no quotation captures this philosophy better than the words traditionally attributed to the Stoic Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius: “Be like the rock against which the waves continually break; it stands firm while the raging waters are stilled around it.” In war, what ultimately proves decisive is neither enemy fire nor violent storms, but the commander’s ability to preserve clarity of mind and firmness of will. At Annapolis, young officer candidates are therefore taught a simple but enduring principle: first master your mind, then fight.

Change in American Society

The U.S. Naval Academy’s renewed emphasis on Stoic philosophy represents more than an educational reform; it reflects the impact of profound sociological changes in American society over the past two decades on the nation’s military institutions. As affiliation with organized religion has steadily declined – particularly among Generation Z – the number of Americans who identify with no religious tradition, commonly referred to as the “Nones,” has grown rapidly. The leadership at Annapolis recognizes that a significant proportion of incoming midshipmen are no longer motivated by traditional religious references to the same extent as previous generations.

This trend is equally evident within the U.S. Navy itself. Approximately 40 percent of enlisted sailors do not identify with any religious tradition, while roughly 15 percent of newly admitted midshipmen at Annapolis report no religious affiliation. This demographic transformation has been one of the principal reasons for incorporating Stoicism into the Academy’s broader concept of “spiritual readiness.”

According to the U.S. Naval Academy, spiritual readiness is the inner resilience and moral strength that enable a warrior to perform his or her duty with honor under the most demanding circumstances. Rather than reinforcing a particular religious tradition, the Navy seeks to cultivate a shared ethic of character, duty, and commitment among personnel from diverse faiths – or from no faith at all. Consequently, Stoicism has become an integral component of the Academy’s spiritual readiness program rather than simply another subject within ethics education. Combat readiness is thus understood in holistic terms, encompassing not only physical endurance, technical competence, and tactical proficiency, but also psychological resilience, moral character, and spiritual strength.

One of the most influential symbols of this philosophy is Admiral James Stockdale. After being shot down during the Vietnam War, Stockdale endured seven and a half years of imprisonment, torture, and solitary confinement in Hanoi. He later explained that his ability to preserve his mental resilience owed much to the teachings of the Stoic philosopher Epictetus. For this reason, Stockdale’s experience continues to serve as one of the most powerful sources of inspiration for Stoic education at Annapolis.

This educational choice also reflects a broader feature of American strategic culture. As Samuel P. Huntington argued, military institutions cannot remain completely insulated from social change, yet they must preserve a distinct professional ethic if they are to retain their combat effectiveness. Annapolis’ rediscovery of Stoicism is one of the clearest contemporary expressions of this principle. The objective is not to replace or diminish religion, but to place a universal, non-sectarian philosophy of character at the center of officer development, thereby preserving the timeless military virtues required for war in an increasingly diverse and changing society.

Fighting in the Mud

One of the enduring truths of war is that a nation can bomb a country for months, destroy its infrastructure, and exploit overwhelming technological superiority. Yet if it truly intends to impose its political objectives, occupy territory, or establish a lasting order, it must eventually send its young soldiers into the mud. This memorable observation by the American military historian T. R. Fehrenbach, written about the Korean War, captures the timeless essence of warfare. The ultimate measure of military success is not technological superiority alone, but a society’s willingness to bear the human cost of war.

It is here that the fundamental distinction between a war for the homeland and an overseas geopolitical war becomes apparent. People are prepared to fight – and, if necessary, die – for their own land, their families, their nation, and their future. It is far more difficult to inspire the same level of sacrifice thousands of miles from home in pursuit of political objectives, energy routes, or geopolitical ambitions that are remote from their daily lives.

The great power competition of the twenty-first century will therefore not be determined solely by artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles, or autonomous systems. It will also be a contest over how societies understand death, suffering, sacrifice, and the burden of prolonged war. The defining strategic question of the future is not simply who develops the most advanced technology, but which society remains willing to bear the costs of employing it over time. As throughout history, victory will ultimately belong not to those who possess the most sophisticated weapons, but to those whose people retain the determination to endure hardship, accept sacrifice, and, when necessary, continue fighting in the mud until the mission is accomplished.

Conclusion

The transformation taking place at Annapolis, US Naval Academy is far more than an educational reform. It reflects a profound shift in strategic thinking – one that recognizes technological superiority alone cannot guarantee victory in twenty-first-century warfare. The U.S. Navy is seeking to prepare the future warrior not merely as a master of artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, and autonomous systems, but as a leader capable of making sound decisions under uncertainty, maintaining psychological resilience, and remaining steadfast in the ethics of duty.

This transformation is driven not only by military necessity but also by the sociological evolution of American society. As affiliation with organized religion declines and individuals from diverse faiths – or from no faith at all – serve under the same uniform, the Navy seeks to cultivate a common will to fight based not on shared religious doctrine but on shared character and enduring values. In this context, Stoicism has regained relevance not as an ancient philosophical school, but as a secular framework for character formation suited to the demands of modern military leadership.

Ultimately, this reflects one of the timeless realities of war. Artificial intelligence may identify targets, autonomous systems may deliver firepower, and algorithms may accelerate decision-making. Yet none of them can overcome fear, embrace sacrifice, or choose to risk death in the fulfillment of duty. The decisive factor in future warfare will therefore remain not technology itself, but the mind, character, and fighting spirit of the human being who employs it.

Perhaps this is the true reason Annapolis has rediscovered Stoicism. The U.S. Navy is not simply developing new weapons; it is shaping the mindset of the future warrior. History has repeatedly demonstrated that victory belongs not to those who possess the most advanced technology, but to those who preserve their discipline, resilience, and will to fight under the harshest conditions.

Sources:

The Stoic Anchor: Expanding Spiritual Readiness at the U.S. Naval Academy, By Commander Matthew Krauz, U.S. Navy, and Marcus Hedahl, June 2026, USNI Proceedings

Improving Spiritual Readiness in the Navy, By Commander Matthew B. Krauz, U.S. Navy, December 2025, USNI Proceedings

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 15:40

US Launches 6th Consecutive Night Of Strikes On Iran Amid Threats Of “Infrastructure For Infrastructure” War

US Launches 6th Consecutive Night Of Strikes On Iran Amid Threats Of “Infrastructure For Infrastructure” War

Update(1520ET)The Pentagon has announced that a sixth night of airstrikes on Iran have commenced: “At 2 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities,” US Central Command stated on X.

Some latest developments from the region on Iran’s retaliation:

  • Iranian strikes targeted a number of vital facilities in Kuwait, the Reuters news agency reports, citing the country’s defence ministry. The strikes resulted in material damage, it added.
  • The US Embassy in Baghdad has advised US citizens in Iraq to be on alert following a drone attack on Erbil on Wednesday.
  • Dubai has warned of “necessary measures” against any media publishing false news after Reuters reported sounds of explosions in the city center of the UAE’s financial hub.

Thursday’s strikes appear to be focused further north in Iran, also after earlier reports of having forcibly turned back another tanker accused of seeking to bypass the US naval blockade.

So far amid what is approaching one week of renewed US air raids, Iranian officials say the attacks have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others.

Ironically, Karoline Leavitt was gone a couple months for maternity leave and she just returned this afternoon to give pretty much the same Iran press briefing as before she left…

*  *  *

Since the prior day’s handover of American detainee Dena Karari back to the US, which President Trump said he “appreciated” as a rare “gesture of goodwill” from Iran, Washington’s bombs over the Islamic Republic appear to have ceased or slowed, for now at least.

But that doesn’t mean Iran’s retaliatory missiles and drones on America’s Gulf allies have halted. On Thursday, Kuwait has announced its air defenses continue to be active, confronting inbound assaults by “hostile drones”.

Screengrab of IRGC video from Sepah News website on July 14, 2026, showing a missile being launched towards US targets in Bahrain & Kuwait.

“The General Staff of the Army notes that any explosion sounds heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks,” the Kuwaiti military said in a statement, blasting “the sinful Iranian aggression.” It added: “Everyone is requested to adhere to the security and safety instructions issued by the competent authorities.”

After five consecutive days of US attack waves, the Iranian military has yet to show signs of backing off its assertions of ‘control’ over the Strait of Hormuz, and its military has newly warned that the energy transit waterway is an “unbreakable red line” which it will enforce.

On Wednesday President Trump warned that if Iran doesn’t come back to the negotiating table – while relinquishing control of Hormuz – that by next week strikes will expand to include civic and energy infrastructure, such as bridges.

Tehran has in turn counter-threatened to destroy “all infrastructure throughout the region” if Trump acts on this threat to attack Iran’s vital infrastructure cites.

New: “Infrastructure for Infrastructure” – Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Joint HQ Colonel Ibrahim Zolfaghari:

There are already signs that Iran could be making good on this threat, with Reuters reporting that “Iraq briefly suspended oil ​loadings on Thursday before resuming them after a drone hit an oil ‌tanker at its Basra terminal, four Iraqi oil and security sources told Reuters.”

However, no fire or damage resulted from the attack, with sources indicating it wasn’t immediately clear who launched it (whether directly from the Iranians, or perhaps from Tehran-aligned Iraqi paramilitaries). Iraqi oil officials have downplayed the incident:

It is not ⁠targeting Basra Oil Terminal. Its target is another place. Loading is at normal rates ​depending on the vessels’ availability,” Ali Nazar said.

An oil ministry spokesperson said loadings were ​ongoing at Iraq’s southern ports and that the ministry is investigating the matter.

Iranian officials are meanwhile accusing Washington of more war crimes, specifically of carrying out a “barbaric attack” after a cancer hospital in Iran’s southwest was forced to evacuate due to heavy airstrikes on the area.

“This barbaric attack – reminiscent of Israel’s atrocities against healthcare facilities – caused severe suffering and anxiety upon the hospitalised children,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei posted on X. He stated there were “211 patients undergoing chemotherapy” which had to be evacuated Wednesday. No response has been immediately forthcoming by the US side.

To review of the events of the prior 24 hours:

  • The US military says it launched another wave of strikes on Iran with Iranian media reporting explosions on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar.
  • The US military also says it “disabled” an oil tanker attempting to sail towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz by firing Hellfire missiles.
  • Iran says it carried out retaliatory attacks targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

As for the situation of global shipping through the Strait, Kpler has recorded that merely 13 merchant ships transited the waterway on Wednesday, including eight that departed the Persian Gulf and five having entered.

Among those, only one – a bulk carrier entering the Gulf – used the US-approved route for safe passage, which hugs the Omani coast. Iran has been busy boasting that a huge array of companies and countries have sought to negotiate passage with Tehran on its terms of late.

This has settled into a waiting game amid dangerous escalatory tit-for-tat strikes, with each seeking to outlast in terms of absorbing pain.

…with that in mind, a “final blow”?

As for the fact that the US military hit an ‘unapproved’ oil tanker Wednesday near Iran’s main export terminal for the first time since the restart of the blockade on the Islamic Republic’s ports, CIC economists including Anne-Lise Cornen summarized where things stand for the White House in a note to clients…

“The challenge for Donald Trump will be to prevent a further rise in inflationary pressures and their detrimental effects on the economy, at a time when the situation was beginning to improve in June,” they said.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 15:20

Iran Tells Houthis To Close Red Sea Energy Chokepoint If Trump Bombs Power Grid

Iran Tells Houthis To Close Red Sea Energy Chokepoint If Trump Bombs Power Grid

Yemen’s Houthis have long warned of their ability to close the Red Sea oil route, but have by and large stayed on the sidelines of the expanding Gulf regional conflict which is focused on Iran since Operation Epic Fury began.

Things began changing dramatically this month, however, after Saudi warplane incursions into Yemen – which bombed Sanaa International Airport on July 13 – in an effort to prevent an Iranian commercial jet from landing there.

via Marine Insight

The Houthis responded by sending missile and drones on Saudi Arabian airbases and infrastructure, opening up the possibility of renewed Saudi-Houthi war (hearkening back to the more intense war of the prior decade).

Houthi rhetoric is growing, related to the US-Israel war on Iran:

The leader of Yemen’s Houthi movement has denounced US and Israeli collaboration as the source of the problems in the Middle East.

In a televised address, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi also blamed Saudi leaders for advancing US and Israeli objectives in the region. “The United States and Israel are the source of evil and instability in the world,” al-Houthi said.

In a rare moment of the now long-running conflict, on Thursday reports have emerged that Tehran is actively requesting that the Houthis join the war in the scenario that Washington begins attacking Iran’s power infrastructure.

This is after President Trump told Fox News on Tuesday evening that “Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants.”

“Next week comes the bridges. We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate,” he warned.

But according to Reuters, Iran still has another escalatory card of its own to play:

Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi rebels to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, three sources told Reuters on Thursday, posing a potent new threat to global energy supplies.

The idea has been discussed within the Islamic Republic’s leadership, and the message has been conveyed to Iran’s Houthi allies, two senior Iranian sources and a regional source familiar with the matter said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The sources said the Houthis had been informed recently of Tehran’s request, which has not been previously reported.

It’s long been reported that the Houthis have indeed been making preparations to attack shipping by deploying missiles and drones near Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is the crucial entry point to the Red Sea.

This could obviously greatly exacerbate the global energy crisis – and would likely set off a new round of regional escalation – which might also see Houthi missiles once again targeting southern Israel, but also Saudi Arabia and the GCC allies.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 15:20

Cameco And Brookfield Positioned To Lead New Jersey’s $24 Billion Nuclear Build Out

Cameco And Brookfield Positioned To Lead New Jersey’s $24 Billion Nuclear Build Out

New Jersey has launched a competitive procurement process for new nuclear capacity under the Power New Jersey Act signed last month. The framework targets at least 1,100 MW of electrical power (MWe) at pre-approved sites and carries an estimated $24 billion price tag

Westinghouse’s AP1000 reactor sits coincidentally at about ~1,200 MWe.

State officials are emphasizing shovel-ready locations and lessons learned from earlier projects to accelerate deployment. Federal financing tools that can cover up to 80% of costs are expected to play a central role, such as from the DOE’s Energy Dominance Financing Office.

This state move sits squarely inside the larger federal nuclear effort we have tracked since last fall. We reported in detail on the $80 billion strategic partnership between the U.S. government, Cameco, and Brookfield to advance up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. Cameco leadership later indicated the combined opportunity across Department of Commerce and Department of Energy channels could reach as many as 20 AP1000 units

Several utility pairs already sit in advanced planning stages, with work progressing on long-lead items and financing models that range from federal build-own-operate structures to support for existing operators.

While state officials and the current procurement documents continue to describe the effort as targeting 1,100 MW, the underlying economics and signals from the federal side point to something larger

Cameco (and MIT) has been clear that meaningful cost reductions are likely to appear on the third and fourth AP1000 units, and the DOE’s broader program has consistently favored paired reactor deployments that allow shared infrastructure, long-lead procurement, and supply chain efficiencies. 

Given that the PSEG Early Site Permit already authorizes two units at the site, the publicly stated 1,100 MW floor may simply be the minimum the process is required to deliver while the actual project that clears the competitive negotiation ends up being a full two-reactor plant once the federal financing package and execution commitments are locked in.

Cameco and Brookfield bring distinct advantages into the New Jersey process. Their controlling stake in Westinghouse, combined with direct involvement in the federal large-reactor program and Brookfield’s separate partnership with The Nuclear Company to scale deployments, positions them to handle the capital intensity and leverage federal backstops at scale. 

The state’s preference for proven large-reactor execution over unproven SMR designs at this stage further aligns with their strengths.

Cameco shares have posted gains of roughly 24% over the past year as the nuclear investment case gained traction. Near-term trading has been more mixed, with some pullbacks coinciding with the momentum trade that nuclear has trended with over the past couple years.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 14:45

Goldman Slashes Global PC Shipment Forecast As Memory Chip Crunch Derails Upgrade Cycle

Goldman Slashes Global PC Shipment Forecast As Memory Chip Crunch Derails Upgrade Cycle

The global PC market is facing mounting pressure as a worsening memory-chip crunch, limited product availability, and consumers balking at higher prices threaten to deepen the downturn. These headwinds prompted Goldman analysts to “further trim” their PC shipment forecasts for this year and next.

We further trim our global PC shipment estimates for 2026-27E, considering the near-term pressures of higher memory and CPU costs, and the flattening replacement cycle following the end of Win 10,” said Allen Chang, a managing director and head of Goldman’s Greater China Technology research team.

Chang continued, “We now expect global PC shipments to be down -14%/ -5% YoY in 2026E/ 27E, followed by zero growth in 2028E (vs. -10%/ +3%/ +3% YoY previously). Our updated PC shipment forecasts are 255m/ 243m/ 244m in 2026-28E, respectively.”

Global PC Shipments: -14%/ -5%/ 0% YoY in 2026-28E

Global PC Revenues: -5%/ -2%/ +3% YoY in 2026 / 27E

PC ASP: increasing pricing due to specification upgrades and rising BoM

Global PC shipments: consumer vs. commercial

Chang noted that AI PCs are expected to remain a top growth driver:

We expect global AI PC shipments to reach 150m / 199m in 2026E / 28E (+15% CAGR), vs. 150m / 219m in our previous forecast, indicating 59% / 82% penetration of the total PC shipments worldwide. We expect global AI PC revenues to be US$169bn / 221bn in 2026E/ 28E (+14% CAGR), vs. US$169bn/ $226bn previously. We are positive on AI PC penetration ramp up in 2026E, with continuous introduction of new AI applications, such as OpenClaw and Seedance by Bytedance.

We expect global Gaming PC shipment to reach 26m / 28m in 2026E / 28E (+4% CAGR, vs. -2% CAGR for overall PC shipments), indicating 10% / 12% penetration of the total PC shipments worldwide. We expect global Gaming PC revenues to be US$46bn / $52bn in 2026E/ 28E (+7% CAGR, vs. +1% CAGR for overall PC revenues), riding on customers’ rising specialized needs for PCs. We model global Gaming PC ASP to increase, driven by specification upgrades (report link), including graphic card platform upgrades, thinner design, AI features, silent mode, and long durability, which would bring better user experience when enjoying triple-A games.

Professional subscribers can read a lot more on tech trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 13:25

Deflationary Money Hits Different: Losing Half Its Price And Winning Anyway

Deflationary Money Hits Different: Losing Half Its Price And Winning Anyway

Authored by Bryan Lutz, Contributor at The Sovereign Capitalist:

The FUD is back, baby.

Bitcoin is down nearly half from its 2025 high. And now, the obituaries are out of cold storage and back in heavy rotation. Sentiment surveys are scraping levels we haven’t seen since the 2022 crypto-winter, and the financial press has rediscovered its favorite genre: the Bitcoin post-mortem.

And this time they’ve got a chart to wave around. The Dow just had its best year against Bitcoin since 2022 – the Dow/BTC ratio has more than doubled off its August 2025 low, from 0.36 to 0.84.

Here it is. We’ll even draw the red line for them:

The Dow’s twelve-month winning streak against Bitcoin. Note what the line still hasn’t touched: 1.0.

Anyone holding through it felt every point. If you wanted to write the “Bitcoin is finished (again)” piece, this is the chart you’d lead with.

Notice what the line still hasn’t done, though.

It hasn’t touched 1.0.

After the worst sentiment stretch in years, after a ~45% drawdown, after twelve months of losing to the most boomer-coded stock index on earth, the entire Dow Jones Industrial Average still cannot buy one Bitcoin.

Against thirty of America’s biggest companies, the coin wins, with change left over.

Flip the fraction.

If that seems impossible, it’s because you’re reading the fraction the way CNBC wants you to read it:

Bitcoin

───────

$$$$$$$

Bitcoin as the numerator, dollars as the denominator, and the numerator just got cut in half. Case closed, right?

Wrong fraction. As Mark Jeftovic laid out in It’s the denominator, stupid, the entire point of Bitcoin is that it isn’t the thing being measured. It’s the thing you measure with. Put the index where it belongs:

  DOW

───────

BITCOIN

Now extend the chart back a decade and hit the log button, which is a one-click jailbreak for fiat-denominated brains:

The Dow, denominated in Bitcoin. A 99% decline that survived every Bitcoin crash along the way, including this one.

In 2014 it took more than 40 Bitcoin to buy the Dow. At the 2015 extreme, 84.

Today: 0.83.

Measured in the new denominator, the Dow has lost roughly 99% of its value in twelve years, and the “comeback” everyone is celebrating shows up on that chart as a wiggle at the bottom of a cliff. Bitcoin just took its worst beating in years and gave back approximately none of a decade of relative gains.

That’s what deflationary money does. It hits different.

It’s about the maths

The Dow is priced in dollars, and dollars multiply, inflate, depreciate, and then die… which is the business model for the whole fiat system. M2 only ever pauses on its way up, every crisis gets solved with more of it, and index earnings get marked up in the same shrinking units.

Bitcoin’s supply schedule, meanwhile, doesn’t attend FOMC meetings. The halvings keep halving. Twenty-one million, take it or leave it.

Run the numbers since January 2000: the Dow is up 361% in dollars. M2 is up 394%. Divide one by the other and the twenty-six-year bull market vanishes: measured in the money itself, the index has gone nowhere. Every point of “Dow 52,000” that isn’t printer output rounds to zero.

The Dow and the money supply, same starting line, 26 years later. The index never got ahead of the printer.

So, the fraction has a numerator inflated by an expanding money supply, sitting on top of a denominator that does not expand. Run that equation for a decade and the line on the chart is the only possible output. The drawdowns – 2018, 2022, this one – are volatility inside the trend. And that trend is division between fiat money and Bitcoin.

A Dow’s comeback measured in a shrinking yardstick must sprint just to stand still. This year, it’s rallied hard in dollars. In Bitcoin terms, it clawed back a rounding error.

Same story, slower clock.

If this framework sounds familiar, it should. Gold holders have been living it since 1971, just at a different tempo.

In 2001 the Dow cost 42 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at nominal record highs and the algos doing victory laps, it costs 12.7 ounces. Two-thirds of the index’s gold-denominated value, gone, during a quarter century of “stocks always go up”.

Yes, gold and Bitcoin diverged this cycle. Gold at $4,142 while Bitcoin sits in a drawdown. They have different volatility profiles, and different adoption curves. Yet, they share the same denominator maths. One asset is the incumbent hard money, the other is the challenger still crossing the chasm. The DOW index can’t outrun either of them over any window that matters.

“Stocks at record highs” is mostly the yardstick shrinking. It is always has been.

Deflationary Money Still Undefeated this Decade

Here’s the thing about extreme bearish sentiment: it’s a report on the emotional state of leveraged tourists, not on the asset. Nothing about Bitcoin(or gold) changed this year. The supply schedule didn’t change. The halvings didn’t change. The $300+ trillion in bonds denominated in a melting currency didn’t change, except to get bigger.

The only thing that changed is the price, quoted in the old denominator, and the old denominator’s entire job description is to go down.

So, the mainstream news cycle might be right about one thing:

Deflationary money doesn’t win every year.

However, it does win every decade, and it’s undefeated.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 13:05

House Defeats Bid To End Israel Aid While Senate Blocks US-Israel Intel Integration

House Defeats Bid To End Israel Aid While Senate Blocks US-Israel Intel Integration

The U.S. House on Wednesday rejected an amendment by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) that would have eliminated $3.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid to Israel, voting 314–104 to defeat the proposal.

As Tom Gantert reports for The Epoch Times, the vote exposed divisions within the Democratic Party, with 103 Democrats joining Massie in support of the amendment, while 98 Democrats voted against it and 10 voted present. Massie was the only Republican to vote in favor of the amendment.

“Though my amendment to strike $3.3 billion in aid to Israel from the State Dept Approps bill did not pass, 104 House Members voted in favor of it,” Massie said on X.

“The tide is changing. Americans want their tax dollars to be spent improving things here at home, not waging war and genocide.”

The amendment was considered as the House debated the fiscal 2027 State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs appropriations bill.

Before the vote, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) urged lawmakers to reject the amendment, calling it “overly broad” because he said it could restrict funding for humanitarian aid, refugee resettlement, peace-building efforts, and U.S. Embassy operations.

While criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and calling for a “major reset” in U.S. policy toward Israel, Jeffries said the amendment was not the appropriate way to achieve those goals.

“In addition, the so-called Massie amendment would restrict our country’s ability to confront Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist organizations in the region who are sworn enemies of both the United States and Israel,” Jeffries’s letter to his colleagues stated.

Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) made reference to Massie, who lost his primary election to a President Donald Trump-backed candidate in May.

“Very proud of my @HouseGOP colleagues,” Fine posted on X after the vote.

“Today we unanimously repudiated our soon-departing Jew-hating colleague, making clear that standing with our greatest ally is core to America’s interests.”

Fine continued, “It takes a lot of effort to eradicate the green shoots of Jew Hatred that want to infect our party the way they have Democrats. Folks in Washington are learning I won’t allow it.”

Netanyahu said he wants Israel to phase out its reliance on U.S. military aid over the next decade, saying the country has grown strong enough economically and militarily to become more self-sufficient.

Israel currently receives about $3.8 billion annually under a 10-year, $38 billion U.S. assistance agreement that expires in 2028. Netanyahu said ending the financial component of military assistance would reflect Israel’s increasing independence while preserving a close strategic partnership with the United States.

At the same time, Democrats in the US Senate have blocked debate on an annual defense policy bill, objecting not only to President Trump’s war on Iran but also to provisions that would more closely integrate the United States and Israeli militaries.

The motion to proceed failed 50-46, well short of the 60 needed, with votes on strict party lines, and Thune flipping to “no” procedurally to preserve a revote

The NDAA process is where the integration fight lives: Massie is fighting the House version’s Section 219, which he says would begin “co-mingling our military supply chains and technology with Israel’s”

Reuters reports that the version of the Bill before the Senate has also triggered backlash over measures that would deepen US military and intelligence ties with Israel.

One key provision would require the Pentagon to appoint an official to coordinate between the US and Israel on defence technology.

That would include joint weapons research, production and the integration of each country’s technologies into the other’s military systems.

The provision also controversially calls for “data fusion”, which Human Rights Watch defined in June as combining feeds from multiple sensors and intelligence sources into a single targeting picture.

The group said the arrangement could see the US absorb Israeli intelligence that may have been collected through what it described as problematic mass surveillance programmes.

A separate measure in the 2027 Intelligence Authorization Act, which is usually considered alongside the NDAA, would expand intelligence sharing with Israel.

Democrats framed the block around the war: Schumer said Republicans want the NDAA passed “as though none of this is happening,” and Murphy called it flatly “an authorization for the Iran war, a war that nobody in this country wants.”

Senate Democrats’ efforts reflect a broader shift within the Democratic Party, where support for Israel has cratered ahead of the November midterm elections. Israel’s favourability rating among Democrats dropped from 59 percent in 2018 to 22 percent in May, according to a June Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 12:45

Headwinds And Tailwinds: Minding The Market Weather

Headwinds And Tailwinds: Minding The Market Weather

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A sailor who fixates on the barometer will rarely leave port. A sailor who never checks it will eventually get caught in a storm. It’s easy for most investors to fall into one of those two modes, either warning that headwinds are approaching and taking cover, or waving off every warning because AI spending is carrying the market higher.

This article walks through several market headwinds that warrant attention, as well as a tailwind that may be large enough to keep the boat moving forward. Appreciating the headwinds and tailwinds in more detail will help you better monitor the market barometer, allowing you to assess and adjust risk levels with more awareness going forward.

Storm Forecasting

Market forecasting has more in common with hurricane forecasting than most investors appreciate. The goal when managing an investment portfolio is not to predict a single outcome but to understand the environment well enough to establish a range of possible outcomes.

When a hurricane is brewing, meteorologists don’t draw a single storm track forecast on the map; they draw a “cone of uncertainty” that contains dozens of possible paths. Over time, as more information is gathered, the cone tightens.

Some storms cause immense damage, while others prove much weaker than expected. Other once-threatening storms never reach land and peter away in the ocean. Which path materializes depends on many variables layered on top of each other.  Like markets, it’s a dynamic process that is impossible to predict with certainty.

Investors face the same task as meteorologists. We must gauge the many forces acting on markets simultaneously and consider a slew of others that may or may not pressure markets in the future. Doing so efficiently provides us with a range of outcomes rather than relying on a single forecast.

With many headwinds arising, the job for investors right now is to closely track the environment and be ready to trim their sails if needed.

The Headwinds Worth Watching

Global Liquidity

Liquidity is the lifeline of markets. To wit, Stanley Druckenmiller once stated: 

“It’s liquidity that moves markets”

With the recent surge in the use of derivatives, options, margin debt, and other forms of leverage, changes in liquidity conditions are even more important than ever in shaping market expectations.  

Michael Howell’s Global Liquidity Index (GLI) uses factors such as central bank balance sheets, cross-border bank lending, shadow banking, repo markets, and collateral availability to assess how liquidity is likely to change. In a recent Commentary, in which we elaborate on his work and his current view, we stated:

The cycle is now pointing down into 2027. Howell projects $40 trillion in global debt rollovers by 2027, a $4 trillion increase from the previous year.  That borrowing demand comes as liquidity contracts, creating a mismatch between refinancing demand and tightening financial conditions.

The graph below charts Howell’s GLI alongside a 65-month sine wave that has been a good predictor of liquidity peaks and troughs. Howell’s index and the sine wave show the liquidity cycle peaked in mid-2025 and has been declining since, with the next trough not expected until 2027. Historically, the declining phase of this cycle has favored cash, long-duration government bonds, and gold over risk assets, precisely because a shrinking pool of global liquidity makes markets more dependent on cash flow and less prone to speculative excess.

Treasury Issuance

In a similar vein, the federal deficit continues to demand liquidity to fund the rapidly growing issuance of Treasury debt. That supply of debt has to be absorbed by someone. Heavier net debt issuance competes with demand for all other investments. On the demand side, with no QE and domestic banks constrained by regulation, there is less ability to absorb the new supply than in years past.  

Bear in mind, however, that if there is a stimulus package or even increased government spending to boost support for Republicans in the midterm elections, this headwind can also be a tailwind.

Restrictive Fed Policy

Even with the last cycle of rate cuts, real policy rates, as shown below, remain above levels most economists would consider neutral. Such a restrictive policy works with a lag, and the economy has so far absorbed it well. That does not mean the lagged effects are gone.

Furthermore, the Fed’s hawkish tone and the potential for rate increases could make financial conditions even more restrictive.

The Yield Curve And Volatile Equity Rotations

We recently wrote, Are Flattening Yield Curves and Style Rotations Deceptive Omens, to help readers differentiate between monitoring financial conditions and timing market tops.

The article explains why a bear flattening of the yield curve and instability in leadership between growth and value stocks, as we are witnessing now, are both symptoms of the repricing of growth expectations and the discount rate. The lesson from that piece is that these signals describe a changing environment but do not tell you when or whether a market or economic downturn might occur.    

The last two sentences of the article sum up this headwind well:

The signals suggest the regime may be changing, and we should be prepared for that possibility. However, until that becomes more evident, we must take advantage of what the market has to offer. 

Low VIX – High Implied Correlation

Our daily Commentary from July 9, 2026, points out a wide and unusual divergence between the low S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) and the lack of correlation among the index’s individual stocks. 

As we share below, the condition represents a potential headwind, but for now, just something to be mindful of.

The low VIX (first graph) implies smooth sailing ahead, while a record-low implied correlation (second graph) suggests the market could be at risk. Goldman is hedging the risk of a correction, i.e., an implied correlation spike. Often, when implied correlation rises sharply from extreme lows, as it did in August 2024 during the yen carry trade unwind, the divergences that kept the index calm disappear. Stocks start moving together again, and most of the time they move down. This condition is not a warning to expect a market downdraft, but it does suggest that risk awareness is critical.  

Midterm Elections

Markets tend to dislike uncertainty. Accordingly, the months leading up to the midterm elections often bring volatility. This year, the potential for the Democrats to regain the House and, less likely, to take the Senate as well poses greater risks than if the Republicans were expected to maintain control of both houses.

We suspect that toward later summer and early fall, market trepidation will increase over the unknown election outcomes and what they may mean for policies and ultimately markets. Accordingly, this is likely a stock market headwind that will intensify as the year progresses.

Consumer Struggles

After two strong months of outsized growth, consumer credit, mainly credit cards, contracted for the first time in almost two years. The personal savings rate sits at 3.0%, near its lowest level since 1960. Both sets of data indicate that consumers’ wage growth is no longer keeping pace with inflation, forcing them to reduce borrowing and/or draw down savings and run tighter budgets.

This is a genuine headwind, and it isn’t going away soon. But it’s not the whole consumer story either. Unemployment remains low, and the struggle appears concentrated among lower-income individuals and parts of the middle class. Many indications of spending among upper-income households point to continued strength, and that cohort accounts for an outsized share of total consumption. Per Yahoo Finance:

A new report from Moody’s Analytics shows the top 10% of earners now account for nearly half of all U.S. consumer spending, a historic high that shows how dependent economic growth has become on wealthy households.

A squeezed lower class matters for retailers and lenders exposed to that segment, but less for the broader market, where spending is increasingly a story about who still has room to spend.

This is a headwind worth watching more closely if the unemployment rate starts to rise and financial struggles spread to higher-income earners.

Tailwinds That Could Become Headwinds

Margin Debt

Record levels of margin debt have boosted demand for stocks, providing a strong tailwind for the market. As we wrote in Margin Debt Risk;

Margin debt just set another record. In May 2026, investors owed their brokers a combined $1.42 trillion, the highest in history and a 53.7% jump from the prior year.

While record and growing margin debt is a powerful tailwind, it’s a wind that can reverse direction suddenly. Per the article:

Leverage peaks near tops. Then it mean-reverts violently because the unwind forces the selling.

In addition to watching margin debt, pay attention to the most favored stocks. Today, semiconductor stocks are bolstered by a disproportionate share of the margin. If they start faltering while the broader markets hold up, this may be a sign that margin usage is about to reverse. Further, any indication of liquidity trouble in the money markets could also result in a decline in margin debt.

The Yen Carry Trade

The yen carry trade is a source of leverage pushing the market higher. As we wrote in a recent Commentary:

The carry trade thrives with a weak yen, as we have today.  Despite higher Japanese borrowing costs, the yen has depreciated significantly against the dollar, more than offsetting the higher interest costs for carry trades. A weakening yen means the trade remains profitable, and the leverage the carry trade provides to markets continues to build.

The risk today to US investors is that higher Japanese yields and a stronger yen could force a rapid, disorderly reversal of the carry trade.  Bear in mind that the more the yen falls, the more the trade grows, and the larger the unwind will be whenever the BOJ finally acts.

The Tailwind: AI Capital Spending

Working against every headwind we discussed, and others, is a single counterweight of extraordinary size: the capital spending boom tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The four largest hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta) are on pace to spend roughly $725 billion combined on capital expenditures in 2026, up about 75% from last year.  Goldman Sachs has raised its cumulative capex estimate for these four companies from 2025 through 2030 to $5.3 trillion, up from $4.5 trillion prior to first-quarter earnings.

That spending shows up directly in corporate earnings, employment in construction and semiconductors, and demand for everything from GPUs to transformers to turbines. The spending is also self-reinforcing in the near term. For instance, cloud backlogs at companies are growing, giving management the revenue predictability needed to justify increased spending. Although there is considerable skepticism about the durability of this spending cycle, it has thus far yielded results that suggest otherwise.

This is the tailwind doing the heavy lifting in the economy and market. It has been large enough and persistent enough to absorb concern about the headwinds. The question worth asking is not whether the tailwind is real but how much further it can carry markets before the headwinds start to matter more than the continued spending.

Summary: Take Advantage Or Trim Your Sails?

In meteorological speak, the Cone of Uncertainty is wide. However, just because the headwinds are numerous and the range of potential outcomes is vast, investors don’t need to trim their sails and batten down the hatches.

The more productive approach is to keep using the favorable winds while they are blowing, and to pay close attention to market barometers and remain prepared for a shift in the winds. That means participating in the areas of the market most directly tied to the AI capital spending cycle while it remains intact, while also paying attention to balance sheet quality, maintaining valuation discipline, closely monitoring technical conditions, and remaining diversified in other sectors less impacted by the AI spending boom.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 12:25

Trump Expected To Accuse China Of Helping Joe Biden Win 2020 Election

Trump Expected To Accuse China Of Helping Joe Biden Win 2020 Election

President Donald Trump is expected to use a prime-time address Thursday night to discuss election integrity and potentially unveil ‘four sets’ of newly declassified intelligence concerning alleged foreign interference in recent U.S. elections, according to reports.

MSNBC; Getty Images

Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight – only revealing that it would focus on election security and related concerns.

“Our country has to shape up,” Trump said during an Oval Office appearance with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaid. “Without free and fair elections, you don’t have a country.”

Journalist Paul Sperry reported on X that the address could include allegations that U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies recently uncovered evidence of foreign interference involving China – not Russia – in recent elections, including the 2020 presidential contest.

Citing an unnamed administration source who had reportedly reviewed a draft of Trump’s speech, Sperry claimed the evidence includes allegations that Chinese actors penetrated state voter-registration databases and obtained information concerning tens of thousands of voters.

According to Sperry, officials believe the stolen information may have been intended for use in manufacturing fraudulent mail-in ballots supporting Joe Biden. He also claimed that CIA Director John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Kash Patel would appear with Trump or otherwise certify the evidence presented by the administration.

Flashback: Chuck Grassley reveals records showing the FBI spiked a Chinese election interference probe

The documents were reportedly drawn from previously undisclosed or suppressed FBI, CIA, and ODNI records. Sperry’s source alleged that the intelligence had been buried as part of a broader effort to conceal Beijing’s cyber capabilities and influence operations.

The “really big news” President Trump plans to announce in Thursday’s primetime address, according to an administration source who’s read a draft of his speech, includes bombshell evidence China interfered in the 2020 election to help Joe Biden win, including hacking into state voter registration databases and stealing information on tens of thousands of voters ostensibly to manufacture mail-in ballots for Biden.

The evidence, which details “alarming vulnerabilities” of election infrastructure, is based on four (4) sets of declassified documents (set for release Friday) which were recently unearthed from suppressed FBI, CIA and ODNI records, according to the well-placed source. The intelligence had been buried in a “massive cover-up” of Beijing’s hacking capabilities and influence operations aimed at supporting Biden.

Other vulnerabilities compromising the U.S. election system, according to a draft of the president’s speech, include the existence of more than 100,000 non-citizens, including illegal immigrants, on voter rolls. –Paul Sperry

The source characterized the alleged penetration of the 2020 election system as more extensive than the Russian interference described by U.S. officials following the 2016 election.

The expected disclosures reportedly concern vulnerabilities in state election infrastructure, including voter-registration databases, identity verification, mail-in voting, and ballot security.

Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Sperry also reported that a draft of Trump’s address references more than 100,000 noncitizens – including people living in the country illegally – appearing on voter rolls. It was not immediately clear which states or databases were included in that figure, how the administration calculated it, or whether all the registrations were active.

Administration Expands Election Integrity Campaign

The address comes as the Trump administration and congressional Republicans intensify their efforts to change federal election policy before the midterms.

Earlier in July, Trump fired members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, the federal agency that assists state and local election officials and oversees the certification of voting systems. The administration has also pursued the creation of a nationwide database of eligible voters and expanded citizenship-verification efforts. Several of those initiatives have encountered resistance in federal court. On June 25, a federal district judge in Massachusetts sided with states challenging the administration’s voter-list initiative, ruling that the Constitution leaves states with significant authority over elections. Meanwhile, a federal judge in Washington blocked an updated citizenship-verification database the following day, finding that the program conflicted with federal privacy and Social Security laws.

Then on July 7, a federal judge in Georgia quashed Justice Department subpoenas seeking information about election workers involved in Fulton County’s administration of the 2020 election.

Harmeet Dhillon, who leads the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, has also sent letters to election officials in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The letters warned that officials could face criminal liability if they knowingly allow ineligible noncitizens to remain on voter rolls.

Democrats, Of Course, Freak Out

Democratic lawmakers are of course in full-on panic mode over the 2020 claims, suggesting that Trump could use the address to revive disputed allegations about the 2020 election or justify new federal intervention in the midterm election process.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned whether the administration could possess significant new intelligence that had not previously been provided to congressional overseers. Warner told the Epoch Times; “having been deeply involved with the intelligence community for the last decade plus, I would be shocked if there was some major new piece of intelligence that never was shared.” He also warned against using questionable or selectively presented intelligence as the basis for government action affecting elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Democrats were preparing for several possible scenarios involving the address and the administration’s next steps.

Sperry separately reported that the White House had encountered resistance from the three major broadcast television networks over requests to carry the address live. He attributed the hesitation to concerns that the speech might repeat claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

The networks’ plans and the White House’s reported discussions with them had not been publicly confirmed.

Trump has described the forthcoming announcement as “really big news.” Whether the address produces verifiable new evidence – or intensifies the existing partisan conflict over election administration – will likely depend on the contents, sourcing, and independent authentication of any documents released by the government.

SAVE America Act Remains Stalled

Trump has repeatedly called on Congress to approve the Republican-backed SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote and photo identification when casting a ballot.

The legislation passed the House but has stalled in the Senate, where most bills need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republican leaders have considered incorporating similar provisions into a third budget-reconciliation package. The reconciliation process would allow legislation to pass the Senate with a simple majority, although provisions must comply with rules requiring them to have a direct effect on federal spending or revenue.

The Senate parliamentarian previously determined that certain SAVE America provisions did not comply with those restrictions. House Republicans released a $95 billion framework for the reconciliation package on July 15. The proposal could include federal funding to help states establish voter-identification requirements.

The House Budget Committee scheduled a markup of the legislation for July 16. Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas said the package would help protect the integrity of U.S. elections.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 12:05

Despite Slumping Sentiment & Lower Gas Prices, The American Consumer Is Still Spending Strongly

Despite Slumping Sentiment & Lower Gas Prices, The American Consumer Is Still Spending Strongly

While headline spend at gas stations is expected to decline (due to tumbling pump prices), BofA’s almost omniscient analysts forecast a stronger than consensus print for today’s US Retail Sales data.

After a big jump in May (revised up), June’s Headline retail sales rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), with sales up 6.7% YoY (down modestly)…

Gasoline Stations sales saw the biggest decline (along with small drops in Health Personal Care and Food and Beverage). Nonstore Retailers saw the biggest jump in spend along with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers…

That was the biggest monthly drop in gasoline station sales since Dec 2022…

Nonstore Retailers, Gasoline Station, & Motor Vehicle sales are the biggest drivers of annual (NSA) growth…

Core (Ex-Autos) fell 0.2% MoM and Ex-Autos and Gas rose 0.4% MoM (so declining gas spend was notable), but annual growth in spend remains strong…

Most notably, the Control Group – which feeds directly into the GDP calc – jumped 0.5% MoM (as expected)

Interestingly, ‘real’ retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) continue to rebound from a negative print in December to its highest since March 2022…

Finally, the American consumer appears to still be spending despite survey-based catastrophic slump in sentiment…

Admittedly, lower-income households have indeed felt the pinch of the gas shock more: they’ve seen a larger increase in necessary spending, which has led to a widening of the “K” in discretionary outlays.

Will that start to ease now that gas prices are starting to tumble? (although rising in recent days).

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/16/2026 – 08:38