Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Jan. 28 that he has asked billionaire businessman and SpaceX founder Elon Musk to help return two NASA astronauts who have been on board the International Space Station (ISS) for months.

NASA tapped Musk’s SpaceX in August 2024, to return the pair on a Crew Dragon spacecraft.

That craft is already docked with the space station, having flown there for NASA’s Crew-9 astronaut rotation mission in September 2024 with empty seats for the two astronauts. After delays, the mission to return them had been slated for late March.

Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday:

“I have just asked Elon Musk and @SpaceX to ‘go get’ the 2 brave astronauts who have been virtually abandoned in space by the Biden Administration.”

“They have been waiting for many months on @Space Station. Elon will soon be on his way. Hopefully, all will be safe. Good luck Elon!!!”

In a statement on social media platform X, Musk confirmed Trump has asked his space technology firm to bring the two astronauts home as soon as possible.

“We will do so,” Musk wrote.

Trump was referring to astronauts Sunita Williams, 59, and Butch Wilmore, 61, who were launched into space on June 5, 2024, to conduct station research, maintenance, system testing, and data analysis.

The mission was initially expected to last just over a week or two but was later extended after the Boeing Starliner capsule they arrived on was deemed unfit to return them to Earth. NASA decided to return the Starliner spacecraft empty after the discovery of helium leaks and issues with the craft’s control thrusters.

Williams and Wilmore were set to return to Earth in February during a handover alongside astronaut Nick Hague and cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov, both of whom arrived at the ISS in September 2024.

That mission was delayed until late March after SpaceX and NASA said they needed more time to complete the processing of a new Crew Dragon capsule that was set to arrive at the company’s processing facility in Florida in early January.

“The agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission with NASA astronauts Nick Hague, Suni Williams, Butch Wilmore, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov will return to Earth following the arrival of Crew-10 to the orbital laboratory,” NASA said in a December statement.

Despite the unplanned extension to their mission, NASA has insisted that Williams and Wilmore are in good health and that their time in orbit falls within acceptable limits.

“All NASA astronauts aboard the International Space Station undergo routine medical evaluations, have dedicated flight surgeons monitoring them, and are in good health,” the agency said in a statement provided to media outlets in November last year.

The Epoch Times has contacted a NASA spokesperson for comment.

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Popular weight-loss drugs like semaglutides (Ozempic and Wegovy) may help protect against over 40 conditions, including Alzheimer’s disease, drug addiction, and seizures, a new review has found.

However, researchers warn that these benefits come with an increased risk of 19 health conditions, such as syncope (fainting), arthritic disorders, and kidney and pancreatic problems.

In a study published in Nature Medicine on Jan. 20, researchers from Washington University’s WashU Medicine in St. Louis systematically evaluated health outcomes among roughly 2 million veterans with diabetes who were taking the popular weight-loss medications known as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) for about 3.5 years.

The media, patients, and even some doctors have dubbed the medications “miracle drugs” due to their profound weight-loss effects.

Administered weekly via injection, GLP-1RAs simulate naturally produced hormones that suppress appetite and slow digestion, allowing people to feel full longer. However, data on these medications’ comprehensive effects across the body’s organ systems have been sparse.

Health Benefits and Risks

Disorders affecting the heart, blood vessels, liver, and respiratory system (such as pneumonia) were among the risks GLP-1RA use reduced the most.

Studies have shown that GLP-1RAs may improve the health of cells lining the blood vessels. Improved endothelial function can lead to better regulation of blood flow and reduced platelet clumping, which could lower the risk of coagulation disorders and cardiovascular events.

The research team also found that GLP-1RAs were linked to improved neurological and behavioral health outcomes. There was a reduced risk of seizures and addiction to substances such as alcohol, cannabis, stimulants, and opioids. This may be linked to how the drug affects neurological pathways related to reward and impulse control.

Additionally, findings indicated a reduction in the risk of schizophrenia and suicidal thoughts, although it remains unknown why this is so.

The study noted fewer instances of liver cancer, muscle pain, chronic kidney disease, bacterial infections, and fever. The risk of cognitive disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease and dementia also decreased with GLP-1RA use.

Insulin resistance has been associated with cognitive decline. By improving insulin sensitivity, GLP-1RAs may help support better cognitive functioning and emotional regulation in those taking them.

While Alzheimer’s pathology can begin over a decade before clinical symptoms emerge, the study suggested that a few years of treatment with semaglutide is enough to show a protective effect. Two large, phase 3 clinical trials (Evoke and Evoke+) are already being conducted to determine whether this effect is real.

“GLP-1RA drugs can have broad health benefits,” Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, study co-author, clinical epidemiologist, and nephrologist at the WashU Medicine-affiliated John J. Cochran Veterans Hospital, stated in a press release. “However, they are not without risks.”

“Our findings underscore the possibility for wider applications for these medications but also highlight important risks that should be carefully monitored in people taking these drugs,” he added.

Known health risks associated with this drug class include low blood pressure, brief loss of consciousness that occurs when the brain doesn’t receive enough blood (syncope), arthritic disorders, and kidney stones.

A potentially severe side effect of GLP-1RAs is drug-induced swelling of the pancreas (pancreatitis) caused by the stimulation of the pancreas to produce insulin. This can lead to overstimulation of pancreatic cells, causing inflammation that could trigger the condition. In one out of five cases, pancreatitis could become life-threatening.

The Epoch Times reached out to Novo Nordisk for comments.

Oil pries continues to churn sideways since tumbling in the big risk-off slump from DeepSeek on Monday as traders weigh the possible fallout from President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on major US crude supplier Canada and other countries and reports OPEC will evaluate potential changes to America’s energy policy.

“Crude prices keep dancing to the rhythm of Trump’s tariff orchestra, with Canada tariffs in focus as they go into effect on Saturday,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. Wednesday’s price decline represents “a sour sentiment across an overall rangebound market,” he added.

API

• Crude +2.68mm

• Cushing +144k

• Gasoline +1.89mm

• Distillates -3.75mm

DOE

• Crude +3.46mm

• Cushing +326k

• Gasoline +2.96mm

• Distillates -4.99mm – biggest draw since March 2022

After 9 straight weeks of draws, crude stocks built last week (by 3.5mm barrels). Gasoline stocks rose for the 11th straight week while Distillate stocks plunged by the most since March 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production plunged last week, tumbling 237k barrels/day…

Source: Bloomberg

Including the 248k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude stocks jumped by 3.71mm barrels – the biggest build since October 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI remains lower on the day after the DOE data…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears the cold-weather snap was the big driver of crude production’s decline as well as Distillates drawdown.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

A Massachusetts man was arrested near the U.S. Capitol on Monday, according to court documents indicating that the suspect confessed to carrying weapons and revealed a plot to assassinate high-ranking government officials, including newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

The suspect, 34-year-old Ryan Michael “Reily” English, was detained outside the Capitol at around 3 p.m. on Jan. 27 after voluntarily surrendering to officers, per an affidavit filed in court the next day.

English told officers he was carrying multiple knives and two Molotov cocktails, with law enforcement later confirming that the incendiary devices were constructed using vodka bottles with cloth wicks soaked in hand sanitizer, according to U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) Special Agent Peter Campopiano, who prepared the affidavit.

“Originally, English’s thoughts were to use the small bottles of vodka to start fires and later to wrap them in rags soaked in alcohol, light them, and throw them at Bessent’s feet,” Campopiano wrote, adding that English revealed he would have preferred to use his knives.

English concluded that he would need to kill at least three USCP officers to reach Bessent and recognized the likelihood of being killed by police while attempting to take Bessent’s life, even expressing that he was “content with the possibility of suicide by cop.”

Besides declaring his intention to kill Bessent, the suspect admitted to wanting to assassinate Hegseth, whom he labeled a “Nazi.” He also planned to target House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and burn down the Heritage Foundation, a prominent conservative think tank in Washington.

“These actions were specifically to ‘depose’ these political offices and send a message,” Campopiano wrote in the affidavit, noting further that English plotted for about a month before traveling from his Massachusetts home to Washington, D.C., to carry out his plan.

Casting further light on English’s plot was a note police found in his back pocket, with a rambling missive suggesting he was suffering from health issues and was motivated by some type of grievance.

“Judith dear [G]od I am so sorry. You must understand I can feel myself dying slowly b/c of my heart,” reads the note.

“This is terrible but I cant do nothing while nazis kill my sisters. I love you. This is awful. Im so sorry. I love u. Please stay alive and heal. you can. you are strong enough. [expletive] them for pushing us so far. you dont deserve this. Im so sorry for lying and plotting and lying. Please survive.”

English faces charges for unlawfully possessing and transferring a firearm, as well as carrying a weapon or explosive device on Capitol grounds.

The arrest recalls an incident in July 2022 when USCP officers detained a Washington man with two Molotov cocktails near the Capitol. The suspect, 26-year-old Bernard McCutcheon, threw one of the incendiary devices at officers, who were treated for minor injuries.

Also, in the run-up to the November election, then Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was targeted with two failed assassination attempts.

It wasn’t just his approval rating that was at a record low when President Biden left office; data from the Commerce Department today shows that Biden’s last month  in office saw the US merchandise-trade deficit widen to a record low (high). The shortfall in goods expanded 18% to $122.1 billion…

Source: Bloomberg

This was dramatically worse than the expected $105.5 billion…

Source: Bloomberg

Breaking down the details:

• Imports grew nearly 4% to $289.6 billion. 

• Exports decreased 4.5% to $167.5 billion.

Additionally, the Commerce Department report showed retail inventories slid 0.3% last month, the first drop in a year.

Inventories at car dealers fell 1.2%, marking the third straight decline after more than two years of gains. 

Stockpiles at wholesalers declined 0.5%.

The figures suggest trade will be a bigger drag on fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which will be reported on Thursday.

Prior to the data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast had net exports barely adding to GDP and inventories subtracting 0.23 percentage point.

US manufacturers remain challenged by weak overseas economies and a strong dollar that risk keeping the trade gap wide this year.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

CNN quitter Jim Acosta has announced that he’s ’going independent’, which is fake news code for “nobody wants to hire me.”

Acosta told the few viewers CNN has left live on air that the network basically offered him a shittier time slot and reduced pay to spew his anti-Trump venom, but that he has decided to “move on.”

Jim Acosta “quits” CNN live on airpic.twitter.com/TtRSCWBwbX

— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) January 28, 2025

So what does that entail?

He’s starting his own Substack and calling it ‘The Jim Acosta Show.’

Don’t all go rushing off at once to subscribe.

Take a laugh at this glorious L.

Jim Acosta announces he’s “going independent” on Substack

lolllllllllll pic.twitter.com/nCzgnzaBry

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) January 28, 2025

Acosta’s first post on his sadstack was a claim that Trump and his allies have ‘silenced’ him. 

Hold on bubba, you quit. 

Nobody silenced him. He quit. pic.twitter.com/S2TrViXTWs

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) January 29, 2025

No one silenced you, they just choose not to listen to your poisonous bile.

LOL, CNN renewed his contract at a much lower rate of pay and also moved him to the midnight shift and that’s somehow Trump’s fault? TDS if off the chart with this dope.

— BG Harlow1 (@BgHarlow1) January 29, 2025

This is the kind of satisfaction we’ve been waiting so long for.

This sounds way better than “I’m unemployed”

— Jolly Roger (@dontcallmeraylo) January 28, 2025

So succulent. 

You don’t understand the victim mentality enough. He quit so Trump couldn’t silence him yet he is the victim and the resistance will live to fight one with less viewers/readers than CNN. He is calling it a victory

— Scott Harnett 🇺🇸 (@ScottHarnett_) January 29, 2025

These bubble dwelling legacy media hacks are finally getting their comeuppance.

And his biggest fan.

— Tom (@TomLeamer) January 29, 2025

It betrays how disconnected from reality they are that Acosta, Don Lemon, Chris Wallace and their ilk think they can pivot to become some sort of ‘censored’ alternative media personalities now that the big pharma sponsored propaganda teet has dried up.

pic.twitter.com/SE2yLfD7D1

— Bull Hurley (@TigersBaseball2) January 29, 2025

It’s over for them.

These people are going to realize the market for the anti-Trump hysteria is a lot smaller than it was 8 years ago.

— Matt Grilli (@grilli262) January 29, 2025

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Futures are flat with Tech/Small-caps big higher as the market looks to recover from Monday’s tech plunge. As of 8:00am S&P futures are unchanged, erasing a modest earlier gain during the European session; Nasdaq futures extend their Tuesday rebound and rise 0.4% after rising 2.0% on Tuesday; Mag7 names are mixed (GOOGL +0.5%, AMZN +0.9%, AAPL -1%, MSFT flat, META +0.5%, NVDA -0.7% and TSLA -0.2%) with semis rallying but this may not mean the end of the Semis-to-Software rotation which is +10% this week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% after chip giant ASML soared 11% after order bookings beat estimates, spurring gains for semiconductor stocks. Bond yields are flat to down 2bps to 4.52% ahead of what is expected to be a dovish pause by the Fed today (full preview here). USD strength continues, given the likelihood of new tariffs announced this week or weekend. Commodities are mixed as Ags and Metals are bid. Looking to the day ahead, the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, while the Bank of Canada will also be making their own policy decision. Data releases include December advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (at 8:30am ET). Finally, today’s earnings releases include tech giants Tesla, Microsoft and Meta.

In premarket trading, T-Mobile jumped 8% after reporting fourth-quarter results that beat analysts’ projections, benefiting from continued growth in wireless subscribers and home internet customers. Starbucks rose 2% after the coffee chain reported better-than-expected quarterly results, luring back lapsed customers with coffee-focused ads and by removing extra charges for nondairy milk. LendingClub plunged 21% after the operator of peer-to-peer loan website gave a first-quarter forecast that missed estimates. A Piper analyst said higher provisions drove a miss to his estimates. Here are some other notable movers:

• American Axle (AXL) slips 3% after entering a deal to combine with Dowlais. Shareholders of American Axle will own 51% of the combined company, with Dowlais shareholders controlling the rest.
• Danaher (DHR) falls 5% after the life-sciences firm posted quarterly profit that missed estimates.
• F5 Inc. (FFIV) jumps 14% after the network security company raised its forecast for full-year growth.
• Henry Schein (HSIC) rises 3% after KKR & Co. has taken a 12% strategic stake in the company.
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) tumbles 23% after the supply-chain software company gave a profit forecast for 2025 that disappointed.
• NEXTracker (NXT) surges 21% after the solar equipment maker boosted its earnings guidance for the full year.
• Packaging Corp. (PKG) falls 4% after the containerboard producer provided a disappointing first quarter profit forecast.
• Paragon 28 (FNA) climbs 10% after Zimmer Biomet Holdings agreed to buy the medical device company.
• Qorvo (QRVO) declines 6% after the semiconductor device company’s 2026 revenue forecast underwhelmed.
• Semiconductor-related stocks rise after chip-equipment maker ASML reported quarterly bookings well above analyst estimates, easing concerns over potentially weaker demand due to challenges at key clients including Samsung and Intel.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) +2%, Lam Research (LRCX) +3%, KLA Corp (KLAC) +3%
• Stride Inc. (LRN) gains 3% after the online education company boosted its year revenue forecast.
• VF Corp. (VFC), parent to brands including Vans, North Face and Timberland, rises 2% after reporting sales that beat expectations, a sign that its transformation plan is showing results.

It’s a busy day today when not only the Fed is expected to keep rates on hole in a “dovish pause” but we get three of the Mag 7 names report. Indeed, traders will be scouring results from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla later for signs of weakness after Chinese startup DeepSeek’s cheaper AI model rattled markets. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates, Chair Jerome Powell is likely to be pressed on the inflationary impact of potential trade tariffs and other policies from President Donald Trump’s White House. See our preview here.

“I don’t think there’s any great desire for the Fed to become overly hawkish in their messaging, nor do I think they’re going to pre-commit to dovish loosening,” Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Co., said. “They’ll say ‘look, we need a period to take stock of things.’

Traders have ratcheted up bullish bets in the hope that Powell signals a cut in March is firmly on the table. JPMorgan’s latest client survey released Tuesday shows the biggest net long position in US government debt in almost 15 years. Open interest in futures — or the amount of new risk held by traders — is increasing in 10-year note contracts. Meanwhile, central banks elsewhere remain on an easing path, with the Bank of Canada likely to reduce rates by a quarter point Wednesday. The European Central Bank is also expected to cut tomorrow.

While profits from the Magnificent Seven tech companies are still rising — and far outpacing the rest of the market — growth is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years. After the DeepSeek news, Microsoft’s AI spending will be in tight focus when the company reports. The company is expected to update investors on its progress in selling artificial intelligence products — and the massive infrastructure buildout making that possible. Separately, Microsoft and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to DeepSeek, according to people familiar with the matter.

“DeepSeek was a welcome reminder that there are risks, but “the way for equities is still up,” Miller said. “Investors still have a buy-the-dip mentality.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% with tech leading gains, while luxury shares dropped after LVMH reported underwhelming sales compared to peers. European semiconductor stocks are soaring Wednesday after Dutch chip giant ASML booked more than twice as many orders as analysts expected in the fourth quarter, sending its stock 11% higher. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

ASML shares soar 12% after the chip-equipment maker reported quarterly bookings well above analyst estimates, easing concerns over potentially weaker demand due to challenges at key clients including Samsung and Intel.

• Volvo gains as much as 6.9% after the Swedish truckmaker reported stronger-than-expected order intake in its 4Q report.
• Logitech shares jump as much as 9.4%, the most in nine months, after the Swiss computer and gaming accessory maker reported results that beat estimates and raised its guidance.
• WH Smith shares rise as much as 7.2% as investors welcome the retailer’s acceleration in like-for-like revenue growth in the key North America market.
• Dowlais shares jump as much as 12% after the automotive engineering firm recommended a deal with American Axle, priced at a 25% premium to yesterday’s closing price. Shares remain well below the offer price this morning, which analysts at Jefferies said may be deemed as disappointing.
• LVMH shares fall as much as 6.7%, trimming recent lofty gains, after the luxury-goods maker’s earnings underwhelmed compared with recent strong updates from peers. European luxury stocks decline as analysts say LVMH’s earnings failed to live up to expectations that had been raised in recent weeks following strong updates from peers.
• Remy Cointreau shares drop as much as 4.1% after the high-end spirits maker said that it expects a drop in full-year sales to come in at the lower end of its guidance range, as its US business still struggles with destocking as well as a high basis of comparison.
• SEB dropped 4.1% after the Swedish lender’s net profit missed estimates and dividend per share of the year was also below estimates.
• Akzo Nobel shares fall as much as 6.1% after the Dutch specialty chemicals company posted full-year results where its decorative paints division weighed on its fourth quarter earnings.
• Lonza shares drop as much as 3.4%, the most since Nov. 27, after the Swiss maker of drug ingredients reported results for the full year that was hurt by its capsules & health ingredients business.
• Continental shares fall as much as 1.9% after the German car parts manufacturer hosted a pre-close call late on Tuesday where it warned of a tough sales climate for its automotive unit, which it plans to spin off in 2025.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks gained, led by advances in Australia, Japan and India while most markets were shut for the Lunar New Year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, with Sony and Toyota among the biggest boosts. Most of the shares listed on the regional benchmark were not trading Wednesday. Australia’s main equity gauge climbed nearly 1%, as data showing cooler-than-expected inflation was seen paving the way for an interest-rate cut as soon as next month. Japanese shares advanced as the DeepSeek-driven tech selloff subsided, following a rebound in Nvidia and other US AI stocks overnight. Equities in India extended their rebound from recent selloffs, fueled by gains in bank stocks and shares of software exporters Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services.

In rates, treasuries inched higher ahead of the Fed decision, with US 10-year yields falling 1 bps to 4.52%. Gilts and bunds outperformed following German 10-year bond sale that had highest oversubscription rate in eight months on a reduced allotment; as a result German and UK 10-year borrowing costs falling 3-4 bps each. Ahead of Fed decision, no change is priced in, putting focus on the outlook for March, with around 7bp of easing priced in; investors have been leaning bullish into the meeting, including Monday’s rally where a wave of new long positions were added in Treasury futures

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar after core inflation eased by more than expected. The Swedish krona weakens 0.1% after the Riksbank cut interest rates 25 bps as expected.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.9% to $73.10 a barrel. Spot gold is steady near $2,760/oz. Bitcoin rises 2% and is above $102,000.

Looking to the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. The Bank of Canada will also be making their own policy decision. Data releases include December advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am). Finally, today’s earnings releases include Tesla, Microsoft and Meta.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,097.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 533.93
• MXAP up 0.4% to 183.29
• MXAPJ up 0.1% to 574.83
• Nikkei up 1.0% to 39,414.78
• Topix up 0.7% to 2,775.59
• Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 20,225.11
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,250.60
• Sensex up 0.8% to 76,507.72
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 8,447.01
• Kospi up 0.8% to 2,536.80
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.54%
• Euro down 0.1% to $1.0416
• Brent Futures down 0.8% to $76.85/bbl
• Brent Futures down 0.8% to $76.85/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.0% to $2,763.16
• US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 108.00

Top Overnight News

• US DOGE said it is saving the federal government about USD 1bln per day but added that the federal government savings needs to increase to over USD 3bln per day.
• US judge temporarily paused the Trump administration’s freeze of federal loans and grants with a pause to Trump’s halt on funding of open programs to last until February 3rd, while it was also reported that a state attorney general group sued the Trump administration after earlier saying it would challenge the federal funding pause.
• OpenAI said Chinese companies are ‘constantly’ trying to distil US AI models, while it engages in ‘countermeasures’ to protect its intellectual property and will work with the US government to protect US technology. It was separately reported that Microsoft (MSFT) is probing if a DeepSeek-linked group improperly obtained OpenAI data, while OpenAI said it has found evidence that Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek used the US company’s proprietary models to train its own open-source competitor, according to FT.
• Japan’s Advantest on Wednesday hiked its full year operating profit forecast by 37% due to strong demand for its testing tools for chips used in artificial intelligence tasks. They highlighted continued growth in tester demand for AI related, high performance semiconductors. Advantest forecasts operating income of 226 billion yen ($1.46 billion) in the financial year ending March 31. RTRS
• ASML +7% (ADR kind) on a BIG bookings beat (€7.1bn) + upbeat commentary (HE of FY doable if AI remains strong).. As it relates to DeepSeek… ASML said “Anyone that lowers cost is good news for ASML … Lower cost means AI can be used in more applications, more applications mean more chips.” (H/T Peter Callahan, Peter Bartlett)
• Traders are betting the ECB will have to ease more aggressively amid political turmoil and risk of US tariffs. Markets are positioning for the euro to weaken and for bonds to gain. A 25-bp cut is widely expected tomorrow. BBG
• Czech National Bank wants to put billions of euros of its reserves into bitcoin (this would represent the first time a western central bank purchases crypto). FT
• Sweden’s central bank lowered its key interest rate on Wednesday, with policymakers signaling they might be finished with their monetary policy easing. WSJ
• US crude stockpiles rose by 2.86 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would be the first increase in 10 weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. Gasoline supplies also gained. BBG
• Alibaba launched a new AI model (a new version of its Qwen 2.5 model) it claims is superior to DeepSeek’s V3 and Meta’s Llama. BBG
• Apple, SpaceX and T-Mobile have been working to add support for Starlink to the iPhone. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher following the positive handover from Wall St where tech clawed back some of the DeepSeek-related losses, although the conditions were quiet in Asia amid mass closures for the Chinese New Year. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in tech and utilities, while softer-than-expected Australian CPI data for Q4 also spurred increased rate cut bets for the RBA’s meeting in February (cut now priced at around 76% vs. 64% pre-release). Nikkei 225 took impetus from US counterparts but with gains capped amid few fresh drivers and after outdated BoJ minutes.

Top Asian News

• BoJ December meeting minutes stated members agreed inflation expectations are heightening moderately and agreed the BoJ should raise the interest rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. Many members said the economy and prices are moving in line with forecasts and agreed the BoJ must decide the timing for raising rates by looking carefully at various data and information. Furthermore, members also agreed they wanted a bit more data on wage momentum and saw uncertainty over the next US administration’s economic policies.
• US State Department spokesperson said part of Secretary of State Rubio’s trip to Central America is about countering China, according to Fox Business.

European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.5%) began the European session mostly firmer and traded rangebound, at elevated levels throughout the morning. The CAC 40 -0.1% is the clear underperformer in Europe today, with the index weighed on by post-earning losses in LVMH (-5%); the AEX is the day’s outperformer, with sentiment in the Tech sector lifted following blockbuster results in ASML (+8.7%). European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Tech is by far and away the clear outperformer in today’s session, lifted by post-earning strength in ASML (+11%). The Co. reported strong rev. for Q4, and its Bookings were exceptionally strong; it came in well above expectations at EUR 7.09bln (exp. 3.53bln). It also raised its Q1 net sales guidance above consensus. Consumer Products is underperforming today, weighed on by losses in LVMH (-6%). The Co. beat on its FY Revenue figure, though its Net Profit fell short of expectations. The Q4 figures were a little more positive, which generally topped expectations.

Top European News

• Swedish Riksbank Rate 2.25% vs. Exp. 2.25% (Prev. 2.5%); forecast for the policy rate made in December essentially holds, but the Executive Board is prepared to act if the outlook for inflation and economic activity changes.
• Riksbank Governor Thedeen says best judgement is that rates have reached the bottom, but the outlook is genuinely uncertain.
• German equipment investment seen growing 1.1% in 2025, according to annual government economic report cited by Reuters. Expects exports to decline by 0.3% in 2025. Expects imports to grow by 1.9% in 2025.
• UK Chancellor Reeves says the government has begun to turn things around. Solution is for the government to systematically remove barriers. Will work with the US to deepen the UK’s economic relationship in the months and years ahead. Will prioritise proposals with the EU that are consistent with Labour’s manifesto. Business and Trade minister to travel to India to resume talks on a trade deal

Earnings Summary

• ASML (ASML NA) +8.7%, Earnings Call at 14:00GMT/09:00EST: Q4 metrics beat, Bookings stood out at EUR 7.09bln (exp. 3.53bln). Q1 Guidance: Net Sales between 7.5-8.0bln (exp. 7.25bln), Gross Margin between 52-53% (exp. 51.2%). CEO: Revenue “was primarily driven by additional upgrades. We also recognized revenue on two High NA EUV systems.” & “Consistent with our view from the last quarter, the growth in artificial intelligence is the key driver for growth in our industry”. CEO/CFO: still very bullish; seeing increased demand for advanced technology in logic and DRAM markets, continues to invest in advanced EUV and mainstream DUV technologies. ASML (ASML NA) on DeepSeek, says anything that drives cost down is good news for ASML; AI cost reduction will lead to increased use and higher volumes
• Akzo Nobel (AKZA NA) -4.9%: Q4 metrics mixed, FY24 slight beat. FY25 guidance slightly short. Co. does not expect a significant market rebound in 2025.
• Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) -5.8%: Q3 & 9-month sales beat. FY guidance confirmed at lower-end of range.
• Logitech (LOGN SW) +6.2%: Q3 metrics beat. FY25 guidance lifted. Gaming sales near COVID peaks. Notable progress in China.
• Volvo (VOLVB SS) +6.9%: Q4 mixed. Cuts China truck market outlook, but notes that North America is gradually improving.
• Fresnillo (FRES LN) Production Report, Q4: Another solid year of production, with gold production ahead of guidance, whilst “Lead and zinc production were also up strongly over the year again”.

FX

• DXY is marginally higher with the USD stronger vs. most peers (ex-JPY). Today is of course Fed day which is set to see the FOMC pause its rate cutting cycle. As it stands, markets currently price around 50bps of loosening by year-end. Elsewhere, markets remain alive to the risk of potential tariff announcements by the Trump admin. DXY is currently oscillating around the 108 mark and briefly matched the top end of Tuesday’s 107.68-108.05 range.
• EUR is now softer vs. the USD after a bout of selling pressure early doors alongside a disappointing outturn for German GfK Consumer Sentiment. Greater focus lies on tomorrow’s ECB policy announcement and the looming threat of tariffs from the Trump administration. As it stands, the odds of a 25bps cut in March are at around 80% with a total of 90bps of loosening seen by year-end. EUR/USD briefly slipped below Tuesday’s and the 24th Jan lows at 1.0414.
• JPY is slightly firmer vs. the USD. BoJ Minutes from the December meeting did little to shift the dial given that there was a more recent meeting last week where the central bank delivered a widely expected 25bps rate hike. Furthermore, JPY was unreactive to news that Japanese Finance Minister Kato held a videoconference with new US Treasury Secretary Bessent in which they confirmed close cooperation on FX. USD/JPY is currently within Tuesday’s 154.45-155.97 range and holding above its 50DMA at 154.86.
• GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD but mildly firmer vs. the EUR with fresh macro drivers for the UK on the light side. On today’s docket, BoE Governor Bailey is to attend the TSC hearing on the November Financial Stability Report at 14:15GMT. Cable currently sits towards the lower end of yesterday’s 1.2415-98 range. Chancellor Reeves in her “Kickstart Economic Growth” press conference, said “the government has begun to turn things around”. She set forth a few additional investments, but steered clear of any major announcements; as such, the Pound was little changed.
• Antipodeans are both on the backfoot vs. the USD for a third consecutive session. AUD was hampered overnight by soft Australian CPI metrics in which all figures for Q4 printed softer-than-expected and resulted in increased bets for a cut at the next RBA meeting (cut now priced at around 76% vs. 64% pre-release).
• SEK was trivially softer against the EUR post-Riksbank, where a 25bps cut was delivered as expected. The accompanying statement noted that “the forecast for the policy rate made in December essentially holds, but the Executive Board is prepared to act if the outlook for inflation and economic activity changes”. Since, the Governor has said it looks like they are at the bottom in rates but the outlook is uncertain, a remark which has lifted the SEK.
• CAD marginally softer vs. the USD in the run up to today’s BoC rate decision which is set to see policymakers pull the trigger on another 25bps rate reduction, bringing the total quantum of cuts to 200bps for the current cycle

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer into the FOMC. Derived support from a strong 7yr Note auction on Tuesday, an outing which followed mixed results across Monday’s lines. As it stands, USTs are at a 109-09 peak which is just below Monday’s 109-12 best. If the move continues then there is a bit of a gap until the 110-00 mark and then the 110-03+ peak from mid-December.
• Bunds are moving in tandem with USTs and as such find themselves at a 131.81 peak, stopping shy of the figure and then Monday’s 132.14 best. A 2035 auction garnered decent demand, which sparked some very modest upside.
• OATs are firmer, but modestly underperforming core peers. Underperformance which is on account of increasing attention on tensions between the French PM and the Socialist party. Tensions which stemmed from the PM’s remarks around immigration at the start of the week. In response, Socialist member Brun said they have suspended negotiations with the PM on the budget.
• Gilts are directionally in-fitting with the above; the Green Gilt outing was a little weaker than the prior, but b/c remained above 3x. Into the Chancellor Reeves “Kickstart Economic Growth” press conference, Gilts traded near highs at 92.47. The presser, thus far has been as expected, and as such has spurred little move in Gilts; UK paper has continued its upward bias to a current 92.54 peak.
• UK DMO announces new March 2035 Gilt syndication; transaction planned to take place in the week beginning 10th Feb, subject to demand and market condition.
• UK sells GBP 0.875% 2033 Green Gilt: b/c 3.1x (prev. 3.55x), avg. yield 4.473% (prev. 3.731%) & tail 0.7bp (prev. 0.9bp).
• Germany sells EUR 3.439bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.50% 2035 Bund: b/c 2.8x (prev. 2.12x), average yield 2.54% (prev. 2.51%) & retention 23.58% (prev. 24.4%)

Commodities

• Softer trade across the crude oil complex amid a firmer dollar and following a choppy session yesterday. Desks suggest the overall weakness in the oil market seen over the past few sessions likely emanate from US prepares to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China from Saturday, with the WTI discount to Brent also narrowing as higher tariffs could tighten US supply. Brent near the lower end of a USD 75.69-76.65/bbl parameter.
• Mixed/flat trade across precious metals in the run-up to the FOMC policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference later today. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 2,757.46-2,766.26/oz range.
• Mixed trade across base metals with upside hampered by the firmer dollar and cautious sentiment amid Trump’s ongoing tariff threats, as also cited by several desks. 3M LME copper dipped under USD 9,000/t and resides in a USD 8,961.00-9,023.23/t range at the time of writing.
• Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +2.9mln (exp. +3.2mln), Distillate -3.8mln (exp. -2.3mln), Gasoline +1.9mln (exp. +1.3mln) Cushing -0.1mln
• Peruvian Economy Minister says the country has to open more copper mines to take advantage of growth; Anglo American (AAL LN) committed to resolving water issues in northern city before moving ahead with USD 2bln copper-gold project.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Israeli army: monitoring a march that penetrated the airspace from Egyptian territory in an attempt to smuggle weapons”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• “Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi: We have not received any message from Trump regarding the negotiations”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio reiterated in a call with the Egyptian Foreign Minister the importance of close cooperation to advance post-conflict planning to ensure Hamas can never govern Gaza or threaten Israel again.
• Russia and Syria are to hold further talks on Russian military bases in Syria, while there are no changes so far to the presence of Russian military bases in Syria, according to Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister cited by TASS.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky commented that Ukraine needs broader guarantees and that Russian President Putin is not afraid of Europe, while he added that Ukraine cannot recognise the Russian occupation.
• Ukrainian drone attack at an industrial facility in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region sparked a fire at an oil refinery, according to Russian Telegram news outlets.
• Russia’s Smolensk regional Governor said Russian air defence systems destroyed a Ukrainian drone attempting to attack a nuclear power facility in the Smolensk region, while it was later reported that the Smolensk nuclear power plant is operating in normal mode after a drone attack on the region, according to RIA.
• EU is proposing new Russian sanctions including an aluminium ban that would phase in over one year, while it also proposes new measures against Russian banks and dark fleet tankers, according to Bloomberg.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korean leader Kim inspected a nuclear material production base and called for bolstering nuclear forces this year, as well as boosting production of weapons-grade nuclear materials, according to KCNA. It was separately reported that an NSC spokesperson said US President Trump is to pursue a complete denuclearisation of North Korea, according to Yonhap.
• Estonia’s Defence Minister says Shipping firms may need to pay a fee to use Baltic Sea to cover cost of protecting undersea cables.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications -2.0%, prior 0.1%
• 08:30: Dec. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 08:30: Dec. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
• 08:30: Dec. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$105.5b, prior -$102.9b
• 14:00: Jan. FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After the tech-led slump on Monday morning, markets continued to unwind those moves over the last 24 hours, with little sign of broader contagion from tech stocks to the rest of the market. That meant the S&P 500 recovered +0.92%, bringing the index back within 1% of its all-time high. And if you consider that S&P 500 futures were down -3% on Monday at the height of the slump, the index has effectively now unwound the bulk of that initial selloff. Tech stocks led the recovery, with the NASDAQ (+2.03%) and the Mag-7 (+2.70%) reversing most of Monday’s decline, whilst in Europe the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) and the DAX (+0.70%) even managed to hit another record high. So in terms of the headline moves, it’s clear that investors are feeling more optimistic, and we’re not seeing the sort of repeated selloffs that happened when the dot com bubble began to burst in early 2000.

That said, even as most indices posted a decent advance, it was far from a universally rosy picture. For instance, 70% of stocks within S&P 500 were actually lower on the day, with the equal-weighted version of the index down -0.47% as defensive stocks underperformed. And whilst all of the Mag-7 moved higher, semiconductor stocks were still feeling the aftershocks of Monday’s slump. Indeed, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+1.11%) only pared back a fraction of its -9.15% slump on Monday. And even though Nvidia bounced back +8.93%, that’s still less than half of its -19.56% decline over the previous two sessions. So it’s clear there are still a lot of jitters, not least given the growing comparisons being made to the dot com bubble. However, it’s worth noting that when the dot com bubble began to burst from March 2000, the NASDAQ slumped by more than a third in the space of just over a month, so it was on a scale well beyond anything we’ve seen today. We should get plenty more on the tech side later, as there are earnings announcements from Tesla, Microsoft and Meta after the close tonight, ahead of Apple’s announcement tomorrow.

Shortly before those earnings announcements, today will also bring the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision of 2025, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. For the headline decision, it’s widely expected the Fed will keep rates on hold, ending a run of 3 consecutive rate cuts since September. That follows on from a hawkish rate cut in December, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and only signalled two further cuts in their dot plot for 2025, which was fewer than expected. Indeed, the S&P 500 slumped by -2.95% that day, which was its second-biggest decline in the last two years, so the extent of their hawkishness came as a major surprise for markets. For today, our US economists are also anticipating the Fed will stay on hold, but think they’ll only provide limited guidance about upcoming decisions. As it stands this morning, market pricing is broadly in line with that dot plot for 2025, with futures pricing in 51bps worth of cuts by the December meeting. For more info, see our economists’ full preview here.

Ahead of the Fed, Treasuries largely held their ground yesterday. Initially, the pickup in equities had seen 10yr Treasury yields move +4bps high intra-day, as investors became less concerned that an equity correction and negative wealth effects would lead to a broader slowdown in consumer spending. However, this move reversed later on, in part thanks to a decent 7yr auction, with 10yr yields closing -0.2bps lower at 4.53%, their lowest level since Christmas. Similarly, 2yr yields (-0.2bps to 4.20%) fell to their lowest since December 12, before the last Fed meeting.

Over in Europe, the focus has also been on central banks ahead of the ECB’s decision tomorrow, and unlike the Fed, they’re widely expected to deliver another 25bp cut, taking their deposit rate down to 2.75%. We also received the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey yesterday, which showed that credit standards for firms tightened in Q4, with a net +7% reporting tighter credit standards, the highest in a year. In the meantime, sovereign bonds moved broadly in line with their US counterparts, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.1bps) and OATs (+2.4bps) both moving higher. Yields on 10yr BTPs (+2.7bps) also saw a sharp move up towards the end of the session, which came after Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni said she’d received a notice of investigation by prosecutors.

Overnight in Asia, that positive momentum has continued in markets, with gains for the Nikkei (+0.76%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.57%), although several markets are closed for holidays, including in China and South Korea. Otherwise though, there’s been a rally in Australian government bonds after their CPI print for Q4 was a bit softer than expected, falling to +2.4% last quarter (vs. +2.5% expected). That was seen as raising the likelihood of a rate cut from the RBA in February, and 10yr government bond yields are down -4.5bps this morning. That’s also helped weaken the Australian Dollar, which is down -0.13% against the US Dollar. Looking forward, futures suggest that positive momentum should continue, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.01%) and the NADSAQ 100 (+0.09%) pointing modestly higher.

Looking at yesterday’s data releases, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator fell by more than expected in January, moving down to a four-month low of 104.1 (vs. 105.7 expected). The labour market indicators also weakened, and the difference between those saying jobs were plentiful and hard to get fell to its lowest level in four months.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. The Bank of Canada will also be making their own policy decision. Data releases include the Euro Area M3 money supply for December. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Tesla, Microsoft and Meta.

ASML shares surged as much as 12% in European trading, the biggest intraday gain since 2020, after the chip equipment maker posted quarterly bookings that topped Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Despite concerns over weaker demand from key clients Intel and Samsung, JPMorgan analysts believe that strong orders came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and other high-end chip producers.

ASML’s bookings for the fourth quarter were 7.09 billion, beating the 3.53 billion euro estimate by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. 

Here’s a snapshot of 4Q24 earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Bookings EU7.09 billion vs. EU2.63 billion q/q, estimate EU3.53 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Net sales EU9.26 billion, +24% q/q, estimate EU9.02 billion

• Net system sales EU7.12 billion, estimate EU7.16 billion
• Net service & field operation sales EU2.15 billion, estimate EU1.86 billion 

Gross margin 51.7% vs. 50.8% q/q, estimate 49.6%

R&D expenses EU1.12 billion, estimate EU1.1 billion

Operating income EU3.36 billion, estimate EU3.09 billion

Operating margin 36.2%, estimate 34.1%

Net income EU2.69 billion, +30% q/q, estimate EU2.62 billion

Cash and other EU12.74 billion vs. EU4.99 billion q/q, estimate EU6.17 billion

Total lithography systems sold 132 units, estimate 121.14

Net system sales China share 27% vs. 47% q/q

Goldman analysts Alexander Duval, James Saunders, and Anant Jakhar delivered a first take on ASML’s quarterly beat and solid FY25 guidance and reiterated a “Buy” rating for clients: 

ASML’s 4Q24 revenue and EBIT were above the midpoint of its guidance and Visible Alpha Consensus Data, driven by more Installed Base Management and higher High NA sales (with 2 tools recognised in the quarter), and higher GMs (due to more upgrades and lower High NA costs). The company’s bookings figure in 4Q was €7.1bn, (up qoq from €2.6bn and above Visible Alpha Consensus Data of c.€4.0bn), including €3.0bn of EUV orders (ahead cons of €2.4bn).

ASML noted that while there continue to be very strong developments in AI, it has created a shift in market dynamics that is not benefiting all of its customers equally (reflected in a wide reiterated 2025 guidance range). The company introduced its 1Q25 net sales guidance of around €7.5-8.0bn and expects 1Q25 gross margins to be around 52-53% (implying revenue/gross profit/EBIT that is 9%/11%/21% ahead of cons).

Further, ASML reiterated its 2025 guidance and expects sales of €30-35bn prior (with the latest backlog now at €36bn), with gross margins of 51-53% (which implies midpoint revenue/gross profit that is 1%/1% ahead of current 2025 consensus).

Within this, ASML expects a strong Logic market, with continued strength in advanced Memory.

That said, we note commentary that if AI demand stays strong, the company sees opportunities to be towards the higher end of the range (albeit uncertainty at some customers also justifies including the lower end of the range). Further, we note that ASML expects its 2025 China business to go back to a more normalised sales ratio (e.g. akin to pre 2023), with export controls fully reflected in the guidance. We expect investors to seek more colour on 2026 dynamics, expectations for order intake from Foundry customers and the latest demand trends in Logic/Memory space. Reiterate Buy.

The analysts are “Buy-rated” on ASML with a 12-month price target of 1,010 euros…

ASML’s most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are set to continue benefiting from massive Capex spending by MAG7 companies to expand AI capabilities.

Last week, Meta raised its 2025 Capex forecast to $60-65 billion, nearly double the $38-40 billion it spent in 2024. Meanwhile, OpenAI, SoftBank Group Corp., and Oracle Corp.’s Stargate AI project, which plans to invest hundreds of billions in US data centers, has further fueled AI Capex spending estimates for the year.

“AI is the clear driver,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet told investors, adding, “We truly believe that AI is going to bring even more opportunity to this semiconductor industry.”

Here are other analyst reactions to ASML’s earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

JPMorgan (overweight)

• 4Q orders, maintained 2025 guidance and the 1Q outlook were all strong, going against the bear case on ASML, says analyst Sandeep Deshpande
• Mid-point of 2025 guidance is now covered by bookings received, and the firm is now starting to build backlogs for FY26
• Strength in EUV orders is likely coming from TSMC and producers of high bandwidth memory; firm probably received no high-NA EUV orders in the quarter, and these bookings will likely be more loaded to 2H, pending customer evaluations

Morgan Stanley (equal-weight)

• Large bookings infer high demand for ASML’s DUV, and that should help de-risk DUV estimates for FY25, says analyst Lee Simpson
• 1Q guidance points to a higher gross margin as there will be no high-NA EUV sales, a tool with typically lower margins

Citi (buy)

• Logic customers drove 61% of ASML orders in 4Q, “which we presume was TSMC returning with material orders after a relatively quiet” period of bookings, says analyst Andrew Gardiner
• Firm will stop reporting orders after 2025, a move probably won’t be taken too negatively, as management has been foreshadowing such change in disclosure
• The result will provide significant relief to the market given the sentiment had been very bearish ahead of the event

Jefferies (buy)

• The strong 4Q booking and a €36b backlog will dispel some of the bearish concerns regarding 2025, though worries on 2026 growth are likely to persist, says analyst Janardan Menon
• AI demand remains strong, but demand at other customers remains uncertain, thus the outlook range is broad

In a separate note, Goldman’s Matthew Kaplan and others said ASML earnings were helping to lift the broader semi/tech stocks: 

“ASML in EU (+9%) helping lift semi/tech sentiment after strong 4Q bookings/better 1Q guide driven by AI along with Japanese semi manufacture Advantest (6857 JT // +4% // NVDA partner) raising FY forecast by almost 40%.” 

ASML shares in Europe recovered much of the DeepSeek AI turmoil earlier in the week. 

While AI Capex estimates by Meta and other MAG7 companies were likely formulated before DeepSeek’s development earlier this week, we provide readers with this view: the new Chinese AI model, allegedly “40-50x more efficient than other large language models,” raises the question of whether such massive data center capacity and chip investment is actually required. This could dent AI Capex spending estimates for MAG7, reduce sales for chip companies, and ultimately lead to lower demand for ASML’s chipmaking machines. 

However… ASML CEO Fouquet said the DeepSeek Development “is great news” for his company because “lower cost means AI can be used in more applications, more applications mean more chips.” 

How about MAG7’s ROI on the hundreds of billions of dollars already spent on AI infrastructure?? 

Oops. 

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

Flanked by some of the Big Tech executives whose companies had suppressed the views of his supporters throughout his predecessor’s term, President Trump on Jan. 20 declared the days of such speech policing over.

Hours later, the president put action behind his words, signing an executive order prohibiting the federal government from engaging in, facilitating, or funding “any conduct that would unconstitutionally abridge the free speech of any American citizen.” 

The move was celebrated by those who see it as a blow against what they decry as the Censorship Industrial Complex. Others cast the executive order as giving dangerous license to “misinformation” and “disinformation.” 

What is clear is that this is just the latest salvo in an ongoing war over the digital public square, pitting the Trump administration and like-minded Republican congressional allies against not only domestic opponents but the global counter-disinformation eco-system.

The global speech-policing effort is looking like an early target. Trump himself seemed to convey that when he touted his order in a remote address last week to the World Economic Forum in Davos. The elite global conclave had recently declared “misinformation and disinformation” the leading short-term risk to the globe for the second-straight year, “underlining their persistent threat to societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and exacerbating divisions within and between nations.”

Two days after the inauguration, Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, released the “Priorities and Mission of the Second Trump Administration’s Department of State.” The short document included the charge that Foggy Bottom “must stop censorship and suppression of information.” Rubio continued:

“The State Department’s efforts to combat malign propaganda have expanded and fundamentally changed since the Cold War era and we must reprioritize truth. The State Department I lead will support and defend Americans’ rights to free speech, terminating any programs that in any way lead to censoring the American people.” 

It is not yet known whether and to what extent Rubio’s approach will affect the reorganized successor to the State Department’s recently shuttered Global Engagement Center, whose efforts defenders had called essential to combating foreign propaganda. Critics have dismissed the reorganization – of an office that funded entities targeting disfavored domestic speech – as an effort to simply rebrand and persist.

The State Department did not respond to RealClearInvestigation’s inquiries in connection with this story.

The global “counter-disinformation” ecosystem encompasses research centers at top academic institutions and think tanks, fact-checkers, news raters, and like-minded for-profits – often funded and/or promoted by government agencies and powerful foundations, and operating and seeking to influence governments both stateside and across the Atlantic.

RealClearInvestigations, which recently previewed the censorship fight, e-mailed questions to other United States agencies and departments believed to be involved, directly or indirectly, in speech suppression on social media or otherwise likely to have a role in implementing the order.

These included the Department of Justice and the FBI; the Department of Homeland Security and its Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security sub-agency; Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services; National Science Foundation; and Office of Management and Budget.

“The Department of Defense will fully execute and implement all directives outlined in the Executive Orders issued by the President, ensuring that they are carried out with utmost professionalism, efficiency, and in alignment with national security objectives,” a Pentagon official told RCI. The Department has previously come under fire for providing funding to news rating entities like NewsGuard seen by critics as biased against conservative and independent outlets.

A National Science Foundation spokesman told RCI that the agency was “reviewing all the executive orders carefully and implementing them accordingly.” In a December 2024 report, the House Judiciary Committee asserted that the foundation had “poured millions of taxpayer-funded grant dollars into the development of AI-powered tools to mass monitor and censor online content.”

Several departments did not respond to RCI’s inquiries. Others referred questions to the White House. It did not respond. 

Even as the administraton seeks to end government and government-supported censorship efforts, the more controversial part of Trump’s executive order may be its directive to identify those who quelled speech in the past. The directive calls on the attorney general and other executive department and agency heads to probe federal government activities violative of the order that took place during the Biden years, whereby the administration “trampled free speech rights by censoring Americans’ speech on online platforms,” and to prepare a report for President Trump “with recommendations for appropriate remedial actions.” It is not clear if such remedial actions will include prosecutions. 

Columbia University law professor Philip Hamburger, founder and CEO of the New Civil Liberties Alliance, which represented several plaintiffs in the Supreme Court case Murthy v. Missouri – a case that exposed federal collusion with social media companies to suppress disfavored speech – told RCI that Trump’s action did not go far enough. “The executive order, although very welcome, would have been even more valuable if it had waived qualified immunity for officials at CISA, the FBI, and other relevant agencies for purposes of free speech violations.”

Alex Abdo, litigation director of the Knight First Amendment Institute, also at Columbia University, offered an opposing view. Abdo wrote in Just Security that any probe of the Biden administration’s actions would be in bad faith, since the order prejudges the prior administration to have engaged in illicit conduct.

“Worse, the report may very well serve as an outlet for the Trump administration’s own censorial desires,” Abdo wrote. “If, for example, the report further targets researchers engaged in First Amendment protected research, then the administration will be doing exactly what it has accused the Biden administration of doing.” 

The House Judiciary Committee is poised to undertake a complementary effort this session. A spokesman told RCI the panel “will continue its oversight work of the Department of Justice and the FBI, in addition to investigating the threat foreign censorship laws pose to American speech.”

Trump has previously called for enacting “new laws laying out clear criminal penalties for federal bureaucrats who partner with private entities to do an end-run around the Constitution and deprive Americans of their First, Fourth, and Fifth Amendment rights.” 

To that end, the Judiciary Committee spokesperson told RCI that the panel would “move quickly to reintroduce legislation that will protect Americans’ First Amendment rights, such as the Censorship Accountability Act and the No Censors on our Shores Act.” The former would provide a right of action against federal employees for First Amendment violations. The latter would render any foreign official who engages in censorship of American speech inadmissible and deportable.

In the Senate, two days after the release of President Trump’s order, Kentucky Republican Rand Paul re-introduced the “Free Speech Protection Act.”

Consistent with the executive order, the legislation aims to bar federal employees from directing platforms to censor protected speech and prohibit grants “relating to programming on misinformation or disinformation.” It also imposes penalties on those who violate the law, including disciplinary action, a civil penalty of not less than $10,000, ineligibility for retirement benefits, and permanent revocation of any applicable security clearance. Too, it allows those who believe their rights have been violated to bring a civil action against the allegedly offending agency and employee who committed the violation.

“Americans are free people, and we do not take infringements upon our liberties lightly. The time has come for resistance and to reclaim our God-given right to free expression,” Sen. Paul wrote in re-introducing the bill.

Billionaire investor and Bridgewater hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warned in an interview with All-In podcast co-host David Friedberg that neither the United States nor China can afford to lose the race for AI supremacy, stressing that this technological “war” is far more critical than “profits.” 

.@RayDalio to @friedberg: Neither U.S. or China Can Afford To Lose AI War

“I think the super scalers in this world have risk issues, think about Nvidia or others. I think that the tech war, certainly the productivity, I’m with you, but you want to invest in productivity. But… pic.twitter.com/mpVCek0pjM

— CAPITAL (@capitalnewshq) January 28, 2025

DAVID FRIEDBERG: I’m a productive asset guy. I like owning businesses that make stuff. In this environment, where do I own a productive asset—a business that can still see its revenue and its income grow as this inflationary effect and this devaluation occurs as we get through a debt crisis like this? What would be the best kind of productive asset? Is it a mining business? Is it a commodity trading business?

RAY DALIO: I’m with you. So, you know, that chart that we showed in the beginning has this line where productivity is going up. And it tends to compound on itself. And I think that’s where AI, and that is fantastic, but it depends where you’re referring to AI. I think the super scalers in this world have risk issues. You know, you think about the super scalers like Nvidia or others. I think that the tech war, certainly productivity, I’m with you man, but you want to invest in productivity. But there’s great disruption that’s going to take place, and there are going to be the disruptors and the disrupted. It’s not necessarily those who are producing the vehicles, but those who are implementing and changing as a result of having their big impact.

I think that the tech war, the AI war is more important. It is actually more important. It’s a war that no country can lose because it’s more important than profits. If you lose, if China or the U.S. really lose this war, it’s more important than profits. You have to play that war that way. It could be something like electric vehicles, or more in terms of Chinese electric vehicles, where they can produce them. But I think there are such high expectations. I think we are going to see applications. I think the Chinese are a bit behind in the chips, but they’re ahead in the applications.

DAVID FRIEDBERG: Did you see the DeepSeek announcement this weekend?

RAY DALIO: Yes, and that was known for a little while now. The Chinese play is going to be chips—very inexpensive chips embedded into manufactured goods. You’ll see robotics. The Chinese are unbelievably [good] at making things inexpensively. They own 33% of all world-manufactured goods, which is more than the combined US, German, and Japanese manufactured goods. The Chinese produce more.

You’re going to see that type of competition, and it may be like solar panels or something. Profit doesn’t matter. I think that where there’s productivity and innovation and disruptors to be. Essentially, being long those who are benefiting themselves through usage or creating the applications that are having the big effect is certainly one thing.