Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

CNN quitter Jim Acosta has announced that he’s ’going independent’, which is fake news code for “nobody wants to hire me.”

Acosta told the few viewers CNN has left live on air that the network basically offered him a shittier time slot and reduced pay to spew his anti-Trump venom, but that he has decided to “move on.”

Jim Acosta “quits” CNN live on airpic.twitter.com/TtRSCWBwbX

— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) January 28, 2025

So what does that entail?

He’s starting his own Substack and calling it ‘The Jim Acosta Show.’

Don’t all go rushing off at once to subscribe.

Take a laugh at this glorious L.

Jim Acosta announces he’s “going independent” on Substack

lolllllllllll pic.twitter.com/nCzgnzaBry

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) January 28, 2025

Acosta’s first post on his sadstack was a claim that Trump and his allies have ‘silenced’ him. 

Hold on bubba, you quit. 

Nobody silenced him. He quit. pic.twitter.com/S2TrViXTWs

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) January 29, 2025

No one silenced you, they just choose not to listen to your poisonous bile.

LOL, CNN renewed his contract at a much lower rate of pay and also moved him to the midnight shift and that’s somehow Trump’s fault? TDS if off the chart with this dope.

— BG Harlow1 (@BgHarlow1) January 29, 2025

This is the kind of satisfaction we’ve been waiting so long for.

This sounds way better than “I’m unemployed”

— Jolly Roger (@dontcallmeraylo) January 28, 2025

So succulent. 

You don’t understand the victim mentality enough. He quit so Trump couldn’t silence him yet he is the victim and the resistance will live to fight one with less viewers/readers than CNN. He is calling it a victory

— Scott Harnett 🇺🇸 (@ScottHarnett_) January 29, 2025

These bubble dwelling legacy media hacks are finally getting their comeuppance.

And his biggest fan.

— Tom (@TomLeamer) January 29, 2025

It betrays how disconnected from reality they are that Acosta, Don Lemon, Chris Wallace and their ilk think they can pivot to become some sort of ‘censored’ alternative media personalities now that the big pharma sponsored propaganda teet has dried up.

pic.twitter.com/SE2yLfD7D1

— Bull Hurley (@TigersBaseball2) January 29, 2025

It’s over for them.

These people are going to realize the market for the anti-Trump hysteria is a lot smaller than it was 8 years ago.

— Matt Grilli (@grilli262) January 29, 2025

*  *  *

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Futures are flat with Tech/Small-caps big higher as the market looks to recover from Monday’s tech plunge. As of 8:00am S&P futures are unchanged, erasing a modest earlier gain during the European session; Nasdaq futures extend their Tuesday rebound and rise 0.4% after rising 2.0% on Tuesday; Mag7 names are mixed (GOOGL +0.5%, AMZN +0.9%, AAPL -1%, MSFT flat, META +0.5%, NVDA -0.7% and TSLA -0.2%) with semis rallying but this may not mean the end of the Semis-to-Software rotation which is +10% this week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% after chip giant ASML soared 11% after order bookings beat estimates, spurring gains for semiconductor stocks. Bond yields are flat to down 2bps to 4.52% ahead of what is expected to be a dovish pause by the Fed today (full preview here). USD strength continues, given the likelihood of new tariffs announced this week or weekend. Commodities are mixed as Ags and Metals are bid. Looking to the day ahead, the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, while the Bank of Canada will also be making their own policy decision. Data releases include December advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (at 8:30am ET). Finally, today’s earnings releases include tech giants Tesla, Microsoft and Meta.

In premarket trading, T-Mobile jumped 8% after reporting fourth-quarter results that beat analysts’ projections, benefiting from continued growth in wireless subscribers and home internet customers. Starbucks rose 2% after the coffee chain reported better-than-expected quarterly results, luring back lapsed customers with coffee-focused ads and by removing extra charges for nondairy milk. LendingClub plunged 21% after the operator of peer-to-peer loan website gave a first-quarter forecast that missed estimates. A Piper analyst said higher provisions drove a miss to his estimates. Here are some other notable movers:

• American Axle (AXL) slips 3% after entering a deal to combine with Dowlais. Shareholders of American Axle will own 51% of the combined company, with Dowlais shareholders controlling the rest.
• Danaher (DHR) falls 5% after the life-sciences firm posted quarterly profit that missed estimates.
• F5 Inc. (FFIV) jumps 14% after the network security company raised its forecast for full-year growth.
• Henry Schein (HSIC) rises 3% after KKR & Co. has taken a 12% strategic stake in the company.
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) tumbles 23% after the supply-chain software company gave a profit forecast for 2025 that disappointed.
• NEXTracker (NXT) surges 21% after the solar equipment maker boosted its earnings guidance for the full year.
• Packaging Corp. (PKG) falls 4% after the containerboard producer provided a disappointing first quarter profit forecast.
• Paragon 28 (FNA) climbs 10% after Zimmer Biomet Holdings agreed to buy the medical device company.
• Qorvo (QRVO) declines 6% after the semiconductor device company’s 2026 revenue forecast underwhelmed.
• Semiconductor-related stocks rise after chip-equipment maker ASML reported quarterly bookings well above analyst estimates, easing concerns over potentially weaker demand due to challenges at key clients including Samsung and Intel.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) +2%, Lam Research (LRCX) +3%, KLA Corp (KLAC) +3%
• Stride Inc. (LRN) gains 3% after the online education company boosted its year revenue forecast.
• VF Corp. (VFC), parent to brands including Vans, North Face and Timberland, rises 2% after reporting sales that beat expectations, a sign that its transformation plan is showing results.

It’s a busy day today when not only the Fed is expected to keep rates on hole in a “dovish pause” but we get three of the Mag 7 names report. Indeed, traders will be scouring results from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla later for signs of weakness after Chinese startup DeepSeek’s cheaper AI model rattled markets. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates, Chair Jerome Powell is likely to be pressed on the inflationary impact of potential trade tariffs and other policies from President Donald Trump’s White House. See our preview here.

“I don’t think there’s any great desire for the Fed to become overly hawkish in their messaging, nor do I think they’re going to pre-commit to dovish loosening,” Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Co., said. “They’ll say ‘look, we need a period to take stock of things.’

Traders have ratcheted up bullish bets in the hope that Powell signals a cut in March is firmly on the table. JPMorgan’s latest client survey released Tuesday shows the biggest net long position in US government debt in almost 15 years. Open interest in futures — or the amount of new risk held by traders — is increasing in 10-year note contracts. Meanwhile, central banks elsewhere remain on an easing path, with the Bank of Canada likely to reduce rates by a quarter point Wednesday. The European Central Bank is also expected to cut tomorrow.

While profits from the Magnificent Seven tech companies are still rising — and far outpacing the rest of the market — growth is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years. After the DeepSeek news, Microsoft’s AI spending will be in tight focus when the company reports. The company is expected to update investors on its progress in selling artificial intelligence products — and the massive infrastructure buildout making that possible. Separately, Microsoft and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to DeepSeek, according to people familiar with the matter.

“DeepSeek was a welcome reminder that there are risks, but “the way for equities is still up,” Miller said. “Investors still have a buy-the-dip mentality.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% with tech leading gains, while luxury shares dropped after LVMH reported underwhelming sales compared to peers. European semiconductor stocks are soaring Wednesday after Dutch chip giant ASML booked more than twice as many orders as analysts expected in the fourth quarter, sending its stock 11% higher. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

ASML shares soar 12% after the chip-equipment maker reported quarterly bookings well above analyst estimates, easing concerns over potentially weaker demand due to challenges at key clients including Samsung and Intel.

• Volvo gains as much as 6.9% after the Swedish truckmaker reported stronger-than-expected order intake in its 4Q report.
• Logitech shares jump as much as 9.4%, the most in nine months, after the Swiss computer and gaming accessory maker reported results that beat estimates and raised its guidance.
• WH Smith shares rise as much as 7.2% as investors welcome the retailer’s acceleration in like-for-like revenue growth in the key North America market.
• Dowlais shares jump as much as 12% after the automotive engineering firm recommended a deal with American Axle, priced at a 25% premium to yesterday’s closing price. Shares remain well below the offer price this morning, which analysts at Jefferies said may be deemed as disappointing.
• LVMH shares fall as much as 6.7%, trimming recent lofty gains, after the luxury-goods maker’s earnings underwhelmed compared with recent strong updates from peers. European luxury stocks decline as analysts say LVMH’s earnings failed to live up to expectations that had been raised in recent weeks following strong updates from peers.
• Remy Cointreau shares drop as much as 4.1% after the high-end spirits maker said that it expects a drop in full-year sales to come in at the lower end of its guidance range, as its US business still struggles with destocking as well as a high basis of comparison.
• SEB dropped 4.1% after the Swedish lender’s net profit missed estimates and dividend per share of the year was also below estimates.
• Akzo Nobel shares fall as much as 6.1% after the Dutch specialty chemicals company posted full-year results where its decorative paints division weighed on its fourth quarter earnings.
• Lonza shares drop as much as 3.4%, the most since Nov. 27, after the Swiss maker of drug ingredients reported results for the full year that was hurt by its capsules & health ingredients business.
• Continental shares fall as much as 1.9% after the German car parts manufacturer hosted a pre-close call late on Tuesday where it warned of a tough sales climate for its automotive unit, which it plans to spin off in 2025.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks gained, led by advances in Australia, Japan and India while most markets were shut for the Lunar New Year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, with Sony and Toyota among the biggest boosts. Most of the shares listed on the regional benchmark were not trading Wednesday. Australia’s main equity gauge climbed nearly 1%, as data showing cooler-than-expected inflation was seen paving the way for an interest-rate cut as soon as next month. Japanese shares advanced as the DeepSeek-driven tech selloff subsided, following a rebound in Nvidia and other US AI stocks overnight. Equities in India extended their rebound from recent selloffs, fueled by gains in bank stocks and shares of software exporters Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services.

In rates, treasuries inched higher ahead of the Fed decision, with US 10-year yields falling 1 bps to 4.52%. Gilts and bunds outperformed following German 10-year bond sale that had highest oversubscription rate in eight months on a reduced allotment; as a result German and UK 10-year borrowing costs falling 3-4 bps each. Ahead of Fed decision, no change is priced in, putting focus on the outlook for March, with around 7bp of easing priced in; investors have been leaning bullish into the meeting, including Monday’s rally where a wave of new long positions were added in Treasury futures

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar after core inflation eased by more than expected. The Swedish krona weakens 0.1% after the Riksbank cut interest rates 25 bps as expected.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.9% to $73.10 a barrel. Spot gold is steady near $2,760/oz. Bitcoin rises 2% and is above $102,000.

Looking to the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. The Bank of Canada will also be making their own policy decision. Data releases include December advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am). Finally, today’s earnings releases include Tesla, Microsoft and Meta.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,097.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 533.93
• MXAP up 0.4% to 183.29
• MXAPJ up 0.1% to 574.83
• Nikkei up 1.0% to 39,414.78
• Topix up 0.7% to 2,775.59
• Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 20,225.11
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,250.60
• Sensex up 0.8% to 76,507.72
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 8,447.01
• Kospi up 0.8% to 2,536.80
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.54%
• Euro down 0.1% to $1.0416
• Brent Futures down 0.8% to $76.85/bbl
• Brent Futures down 0.8% to $76.85/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.0% to $2,763.16
• US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 108.00

Top Overnight News

• US DOGE said it is saving the federal government about USD 1bln per day but added that the federal government savings needs to increase to over USD 3bln per day.
• US judge temporarily paused the Trump administration’s freeze of federal loans and grants with a pause to Trump’s halt on funding of open programs to last until February 3rd, while it was also reported that a state attorney general group sued the Trump administration after earlier saying it would challenge the federal funding pause.
• OpenAI said Chinese companies are ‘constantly’ trying to distil US AI models, while it engages in ‘countermeasures’ to protect its intellectual property and will work with the US government to protect US technology. It was separately reported that Microsoft (MSFT) is probing if a DeepSeek-linked group improperly obtained OpenAI data, while OpenAI said it has found evidence that Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek used the US company’s proprietary models to train its own open-source competitor, according to FT.
• Japan’s Advantest on Wednesday hiked its full year operating profit forecast by 37% due to strong demand for its testing tools for chips used in artificial intelligence tasks. They highlighted continued growth in tester demand for AI related, high performance semiconductors. Advantest forecasts operating income of 226 billion yen ($1.46 billion) in the financial year ending March 31. RTRS
• ASML +7% (ADR kind) on a BIG bookings beat (€7.1bn) + upbeat commentary (HE of FY doable if AI remains strong).. As it relates to DeepSeek… ASML said “Anyone that lowers cost is good news for ASML … Lower cost means AI can be used in more applications, more applications mean more chips.” (H/T Peter Callahan, Peter Bartlett)
• Traders are betting the ECB will have to ease more aggressively amid political turmoil and risk of US tariffs. Markets are positioning for the euro to weaken and for bonds to gain. A 25-bp cut is widely expected tomorrow. BBG
• Czech National Bank wants to put billions of euros of its reserves into bitcoin (this would represent the first time a western central bank purchases crypto). FT
• Sweden’s central bank lowered its key interest rate on Wednesday, with policymakers signaling they might be finished with their monetary policy easing. WSJ
• US crude stockpiles rose by 2.86 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would be the first increase in 10 weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. Gasoline supplies also gained. BBG
• Alibaba launched a new AI model (a new version of its Qwen 2.5 model) it claims is superior to DeepSeek’s V3 and Meta’s Llama. BBG
• Apple, SpaceX and T-Mobile have been working to add support for Starlink to the iPhone. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher following the positive handover from Wall St where tech clawed back some of the DeepSeek-related losses, although the conditions were quiet in Asia amid mass closures for the Chinese New Year. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in tech and utilities, while softer-than-expected Australian CPI data for Q4 also spurred increased rate cut bets for the RBA’s meeting in February (cut now priced at around 76% vs. 64% pre-release). Nikkei 225 took impetus from US counterparts but with gains capped amid few fresh drivers and after outdated BoJ minutes.

Top Asian News

• BoJ December meeting minutes stated members agreed inflation expectations are heightening moderately and agreed the BoJ should raise the interest rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. Many members said the economy and prices are moving in line with forecasts and agreed the BoJ must decide the timing for raising rates by looking carefully at various data and information. Furthermore, members also agreed they wanted a bit more data on wage momentum and saw uncertainty over the next US administration’s economic policies.
• US State Department spokesperson said part of Secretary of State Rubio’s trip to Central America is about countering China, according to Fox Business.

European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.5%) began the European session mostly firmer and traded rangebound, at elevated levels throughout the morning. The CAC 40 -0.1% is the clear underperformer in Europe today, with the index weighed on by post-earning losses in LVMH (-5%); the AEX is the day’s outperformer, with sentiment in the Tech sector lifted following blockbuster results in ASML (+8.7%). European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Tech is by far and away the clear outperformer in today’s session, lifted by post-earning strength in ASML (+11%). The Co. reported strong rev. for Q4, and its Bookings were exceptionally strong; it came in well above expectations at EUR 7.09bln (exp. 3.53bln). It also raised its Q1 net sales guidance above consensus. Consumer Products is underperforming today, weighed on by losses in LVMH (-6%). The Co. beat on its FY Revenue figure, though its Net Profit fell short of expectations. The Q4 figures were a little more positive, which generally topped expectations.

Top European News

• Swedish Riksbank Rate 2.25% vs. Exp. 2.25% (Prev. 2.5%); forecast for the policy rate made in December essentially holds, but the Executive Board is prepared to act if the outlook for inflation and economic activity changes.
• Riksbank Governor Thedeen says best judgement is that rates have reached the bottom, but the outlook is genuinely uncertain.
• German equipment investment seen growing 1.1% in 2025, according to annual government economic report cited by Reuters. Expects exports to decline by 0.3% in 2025. Expects imports to grow by 1.9% in 2025.
• UK Chancellor Reeves says the government has begun to turn things around. Solution is for the government to systematically remove barriers. Will work with the US to deepen the UK’s economic relationship in the months and years ahead. Will prioritise proposals with the EU that are consistent with Labour’s manifesto. Business and Trade minister to travel to India to resume talks on a trade deal

Earnings Summary

• ASML (ASML NA) +8.7%, Earnings Call at 14:00GMT/09:00EST: Q4 metrics beat, Bookings stood out at EUR 7.09bln (exp. 3.53bln). Q1 Guidance: Net Sales between 7.5-8.0bln (exp. 7.25bln), Gross Margin between 52-53% (exp. 51.2%). CEO: Revenue “was primarily driven by additional upgrades. We also recognized revenue on two High NA EUV systems.” & “Consistent with our view from the last quarter, the growth in artificial intelligence is the key driver for growth in our industry”. CEO/CFO: still very bullish; seeing increased demand for advanced technology in logic and DRAM markets, continues to invest in advanced EUV and mainstream DUV technologies. ASML (ASML NA) on DeepSeek, says anything that drives cost down is good news for ASML; AI cost reduction will lead to increased use and higher volumes
• Akzo Nobel (AKZA NA) -4.9%: Q4 metrics mixed, FY24 slight beat. FY25 guidance slightly short. Co. does not expect a significant market rebound in 2025.
• Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) -5.8%: Q3 & 9-month sales beat. FY guidance confirmed at lower-end of range.
• Logitech (LOGN SW) +6.2%: Q3 metrics beat. FY25 guidance lifted. Gaming sales near COVID peaks. Notable progress in China.
• Volvo (VOLVB SS) +6.9%: Q4 mixed. Cuts China truck market outlook, but notes that North America is gradually improving.
• Fresnillo (FRES LN) Production Report, Q4: Another solid year of production, with gold production ahead of guidance, whilst “Lead and zinc production were also up strongly over the year again”.

FX

• DXY is marginally higher with the USD stronger vs. most peers (ex-JPY). Today is of course Fed day which is set to see the FOMC pause its rate cutting cycle. As it stands, markets currently price around 50bps of loosening by year-end. Elsewhere, markets remain alive to the risk of potential tariff announcements by the Trump admin. DXY is currently oscillating around the 108 mark and briefly matched the top end of Tuesday’s 107.68-108.05 range.
• EUR is now softer vs. the USD after a bout of selling pressure early doors alongside a disappointing outturn for German GfK Consumer Sentiment. Greater focus lies on tomorrow’s ECB policy announcement and the looming threat of tariffs from the Trump administration. As it stands, the odds of a 25bps cut in March are at around 80% with a total of 90bps of loosening seen by year-end. EUR/USD briefly slipped below Tuesday’s and the 24th Jan lows at 1.0414.
• JPY is slightly firmer vs. the USD. BoJ Minutes from the December meeting did little to shift the dial given that there was a more recent meeting last week where the central bank delivered a widely expected 25bps rate hike. Furthermore, JPY was unreactive to news that Japanese Finance Minister Kato held a videoconference with new US Treasury Secretary Bessent in which they confirmed close cooperation on FX. USD/JPY is currently within Tuesday’s 154.45-155.97 range and holding above its 50DMA at 154.86.
• GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD but mildly firmer vs. the EUR with fresh macro drivers for the UK on the light side. On today’s docket, BoE Governor Bailey is to attend the TSC hearing on the November Financial Stability Report at 14:15GMT. Cable currently sits towards the lower end of yesterday’s 1.2415-98 range. Chancellor Reeves in her “Kickstart Economic Growth” press conference, said “the government has begun to turn things around”. She set forth a few additional investments, but steered clear of any major announcements; as such, the Pound was little changed.
• Antipodeans are both on the backfoot vs. the USD for a third consecutive session. AUD was hampered overnight by soft Australian CPI metrics in which all figures for Q4 printed softer-than-expected and resulted in increased bets for a cut at the next RBA meeting (cut now priced at around 76% vs. 64% pre-release).
• SEK was trivially softer against the EUR post-Riksbank, where a 25bps cut was delivered as expected. The accompanying statement noted that “the forecast for the policy rate made in December essentially holds, but the Executive Board is prepared to act if the outlook for inflation and economic activity changes”. Since, the Governor has said it looks like they are at the bottom in rates but the outlook is uncertain, a remark which has lifted the SEK.
• CAD marginally softer vs. the USD in the run up to today’s BoC rate decision which is set to see policymakers pull the trigger on another 25bps rate reduction, bringing the total quantum of cuts to 200bps for the current cycle

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer into the FOMC. Derived support from a strong 7yr Note auction on Tuesday, an outing which followed mixed results across Monday’s lines. As it stands, USTs are at a 109-09 peak which is just below Monday’s 109-12 best. If the move continues then there is a bit of a gap until the 110-00 mark and then the 110-03+ peak from mid-December.
• Bunds are moving in tandem with USTs and as such find themselves at a 131.81 peak, stopping shy of the figure and then Monday’s 132.14 best. A 2035 auction garnered decent demand, which sparked some very modest upside.
• OATs are firmer, but modestly underperforming core peers. Underperformance which is on account of increasing attention on tensions between the French PM and the Socialist party. Tensions which stemmed from the PM’s remarks around immigration at the start of the week. In response, Socialist member Brun said they have suspended negotiations with the PM on the budget.
• Gilts are directionally in-fitting with the above; the Green Gilt outing was a little weaker than the prior, but b/c remained above 3x. Into the Chancellor Reeves “Kickstart Economic Growth” press conference, Gilts traded near highs at 92.47. The presser, thus far has been as expected, and as such has spurred little move in Gilts; UK paper has continued its upward bias to a current 92.54 peak.
• UK DMO announces new March 2035 Gilt syndication; transaction planned to take place in the week beginning 10th Feb, subject to demand and market condition.
• UK sells GBP 0.875% 2033 Green Gilt: b/c 3.1x (prev. 3.55x), avg. yield 4.473% (prev. 3.731%) & tail 0.7bp (prev. 0.9bp).
• Germany sells EUR 3.439bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.50% 2035 Bund: b/c 2.8x (prev. 2.12x), average yield 2.54% (prev. 2.51%) & retention 23.58% (prev. 24.4%)

Commodities

• Softer trade across the crude oil complex amid a firmer dollar and following a choppy session yesterday. Desks suggest the overall weakness in the oil market seen over the past few sessions likely emanate from US prepares to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China from Saturday, with the WTI discount to Brent also narrowing as higher tariffs could tighten US supply. Brent near the lower end of a USD 75.69-76.65/bbl parameter.
• Mixed/flat trade across precious metals in the run-up to the FOMC policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference later today. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 2,757.46-2,766.26/oz range.
• Mixed trade across base metals with upside hampered by the firmer dollar and cautious sentiment amid Trump’s ongoing tariff threats, as also cited by several desks. 3M LME copper dipped under USD 9,000/t and resides in a USD 8,961.00-9,023.23/t range at the time of writing.
• Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +2.9mln (exp. +3.2mln), Distillate -3.8mln (exp. -2.3mln), Gasoline +1.9mln (exp. +1.3mln) Cushing -0.1mln
• Peruvian Economy Minister says the country has to open more copper mines to take advantage of growth; Anglo American (AAL LN) committed to resolving water issues in northern city before moving ahead with USD 2bln copper-gold project.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Israeli army: monitoring a march that penetrated the airspace from Egyptian territory in an attempt to smuggle weapons”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• “Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi: We have not received any message from Trump regarding the negotiations”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio reiterated in a call with the Egyptian Foreign Minister the importance of close cooperation to advance post-conflict planning to ensure Hamas can never govern Gaza or threaten Israel again.
• Russia and Syria are to hold further talks on Russian military bases in Syria, while there are no changes so far to the presence of Russian military bases in Syria, according to Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister cited by TASS.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky commented that Ukraine needs broader guarantees and that Russian President Putin is not afraid of Europe, while he added that Ukraine cannot recognise the Russian occupation.
• Ukrainian drone attack at an industrial facility in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region sparked a fire at an oil refinery, according to Russian Telegram news outlets.
• Russia’s Smolensk regional Governor said Russian air defence systems destroyed a Ukrainian drone attempting to attack a nuclear power facility in the Smolensk region, while it was later reported that the Smolensk nuclear power plant is operating in normal mode after a drone attack on the region, according to RIA.
• EU is proposing new Russian sanctions including an aluminium ban that would phase in over one year, while it also proposes new measures against Russian banks and dark fleet tankers, according to Bloomberg.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korean leader Kim inspected a nuclear material production base and called for bolstering nuclear forces this year, as well as boosting production of weapons-grade nuclear materials, according to KCNA. It was separately reported that an NSC spokesperson said US President Trump is to pursue a complete denuclearisation of North Korea, according to Yonhap.
• Estonia’s Defence Minister says Shipping firms may need to pay a fee to use Baltic Sea to cover cost of protecting undersea cables.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications -2.0%, prior 0.1%
• 08:30: Dec. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 08:30: Dec. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
• 08:30: Dec. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$105.5b, prior -$102.9b
• 14:00: Jan. FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After the tech-led slump on Monday morning, markets continued to unwind those moves over the last 24 hours, with little sign of broader contagion from tech stocks to the rest of the market. That meant the S&P 500 recovered +0.92%, bringing the index back within 1% of its all-time high. And if you consider that S&P 500 futures were down -3% on Monday at the height of the slump, the index has effectively now unwound the bulk of that initial selloff. Tech stocks led the recovery, with the NASDAQ (+2.03%) and the Mag-7 (+2.70%) reversing most of Monday’s decline, whilst in Europe the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) and the DAX (+0.70%) even managed to hit another record high. So in terms of the headline moves, it’s clear that investors are feeling more optimistic, and we’re not seeing the sort of repeated selloffs that happened when the dot com bubble began to burst in early 2000.

That said, even as most indices posted a decent advance, it was far from a universally rosy picture. For instance, 70% of stocks within S&P 500 were actually lower on the day, with the equal-weighted version of the index down -0.47% as defensive stocks underperformed. And whilst all of the Mag-7 moved higher, semiconductor stocks were still feeling the aftershocks of Monday’s slump. Indeed, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+1.11%) only pared back a fraction of its -9.15% slump on Monday. And even though Nvidia bounced back +8.93%, that’s still less than half of its -19.56% decline over the previous two sessions. So it’s clear there are still a lot of jitters, not least given the growing comparisons being made to the dot com bubble. However, it’s worth noting that when the dot com bubble began to burst from March 2000, the NASDAQ slumped by more than a third in the space of just over a month, so it was on a scale well beyond anything we’ve seen today. We should get plenty more on the tech side later, as there are earnings announcements from Tesla, Microsoft and Meta after the close tonight, ahead of Apple’s announcement tomorrow.

Shortly before those earnings announcements, today will also bring the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision of 2025, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. For the headline decision, it’s widely expected the Fed will keep rates on hold, ending a run of 3 consecutive rate cuts since September. That follows on from a hawkish rate cut in December, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and only signalled two further cuts in their dot plot for 2025, which was fewer than expected. Indeed, the S&P 500 slumped by -2.95% that day, which was its second-biggest decline in the last two years, so the extent of their hawkishness came as a major surprise for markets. For today, our US economists are also anticipating the Fed will stay on hold, but think they’ll only provide limited guidance about upcoming decisions. As it stands this morning, market pricing is broadly in line with that dot plot for 2025, with futures pricing in 51bps worth of cuts by the December meeting. For more info, see our economists’ full preview here.

Ahead of the Fed, Treasuries largely held their ground yesterday. Initially, the pickup in equities had seen 10yr Treasury yields move +4bps high intra-day, as investors became less concerned that an equity correction and negative wealth effects would lead to a broader slowdown in consumer spending. However, this move reversed later on, in part thanks to a decent 7yr auction, with 10yr yields closing -0.2bps lower at 4.53%, their lowest level since Christmas. Similarly, 2yr yields (-0.2bps to 4.20%) fell to their lowest since December 12, before the last Fed meeting.

Over in Europe, the focus has also been on central banks ahead of the ECB’s decision tomorrow, and unlike the Fed, they’re widely expected to deliver another 25bp cut, taking their deposit rate down to 2.75%. We also received the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey yesterday, which showed that credit standards for firms tightened in Q4, with a net +7% reporting tighter credit standards, the highest in a year. In the meantime, sovereign bonds moved broadly in line with their US counterparts, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.1bps) and OATs (+2.4bps) both moving higher. Yields on 10yr BTPs (+2.7bps) also saw a sharp move up towards the end of the session, which came after Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni said she’d received a notice of investigation by prosecutors.

Overnight in Asia, that positive momentum has continued in markets, with gains for the Nikkei (+0.76%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.57%), although several markets are closed for holidays, including in China and South Korea. Otherwise though, there’s been a rally in Australian government bonds after their CPI print for Q4 was a bit softer than expected, falling to +2.4% last quarter (vs. +2.5% expected). That was seen as raising the likelihood of a rate cut from the RBA in February, and 10yr government bond yields are down -4.5bps this morning. That’s also helped weaken the Australian Dollar, which is down -0.13% against the US Dollar. Looking forward, futures suggest that positive momentum should continue, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.01%) and the NADSAQ 100 (+0.09%) pointing modestly higher.

Looking at yesterday’s data releases, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator fell by more than expected in January, moving down to a four-month low of 104.1 (vs. 105.7 expected). The labour market indicators also weakened, and the difference between those saying jobs were plentiful and hard to get fell to its lowest level in four months.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. The Bank of Canada will also be making their own policy decision. Data releases include the Euro Area M3 money supply for December. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Tesla, Microsoft and Meta.

ASML shares surged as much as 12% in European trading, the biggest intraday gain since 2020, after the chip equipment maker posted quarterly bookings that topped Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Despite concerns over weaker demand from key clients Intel and Samsung, JPMorgan analysts believe that strong orders came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and other high-end chip producers.

ASML’s bookings for the fourth quarter were 7.09 billion, beating the 3.53 billion euro estimate by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. 

Here’s a snapshot of 4Q24 earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Bookings EU7.09 billion vs. EU2.63 billion q/q, estimate EU3.53 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Net sales EU9.26 billion, +24% q/q, estimate EU9.02 billion

• Net system sales EU7.12 billion, estimate EU7.16 billion
• Net service & field operation sales EU2.15 billion, estimate EU1.86 billion 

Gross margin 51.7% vs. 50.8% q/q, estimate 49.6%

R&D expenses EU1.12 billion, estimate EU1.1 billion

Operating income EU3.36 billion, estimate EU3.09 billion

Operating margin 36.2%, estimate 34.1%

Net income EU2.69 billion, +30% q/q, estimate EU2.62 billion

Cash and other EU12.74 billion vs. EU4.99 billion q/q, estimate EU6.17 billion

Total lithography systems sold 132 units, estimate 121.14

Net system sales China share 27% vs. 47% q/q

Goldman analysts Alexander Duval, James Saunders, and Anant Jakhar delivered a first take on ASML’s quarterly beat and solid FY25 guidance and reiterated a “Buy” rating for clients: 

ASML’s 4Q24 revenue and EBIT were above the midpoint of its guidance and Visible Alpha Consensus Data, driven by more Installed Base Management and higher High NA sales (with 2 tools recognised in the quarter), and higher GMs (due to more upgrades and lower High NA costs). The company’s bookings figure in 4Q was €7.1bn, (up qoq from €2.6bn and above Visible Alpha Consensus Data of c.€4.0bn), including €3.0bn of EUV orders (ahead cons of €2.4bn).

ASML noted that while there continue to be very strong developments in AI, it has created a shift in market dynamics that is not benefiting all of its customers equally (reflected in a wide reiterated 2025 guidance range). The company introduced its 1Q25 net sales guidance of around €7.5-8.0bn and expects 1Q25 gross margins to be around 52-53% (implying revenue/gross profit/EBIT that is 9%/11%/21% ahead of cons).

Further, ASML reiterated its 2025 guidance and expects sales of €30-35bn prior (with the latest backlog now at €36bn), with gross margins of 51-53% (which implies midpoint revenue/gross profit that is 1%/1% ahead of current 2025 consensus).

Within this, ASML expects a strong Logic market, with continued strength in advanced Memory.

That said, we note commentary that if AI demand stays strong, the company sees opportunities to be towards the higher end of the range (albeit uncertainty at some customers also justifies including the lower end of the range). Further, we note that ASML expects its 2025 China business to go back to a more normalised sales ratio (e.g. akin to pre 2023), with export controls fully reflected in the guidance. We expect investors to seek more colour on 2026 dynamics, expectations for order intake from Foundry customers and the latest demand trends in Logic/Memory space. Reiterate Buy.

The analysts are “Buy-rated” on ASML with a 12-month price target of 1,010 euros…

ASML’s most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are set to continue benefiting from massive Capex spending by MAG7 companies to expand AI capabilities.

Last week, Meta raised its 2025 Capex forecast to $60-65 billion, nearly double the $38-40 billion it spent in 2024. Meanwhile, OpenAI, SoftBank Group Corp., and Oracle Corp.’s Stargate AI project, which plans to invest hundreds of billions in US data centers, has further fueled AI Capex spending estimates for the year.

“AI is the clear driver,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet told investors, adding, “We truly believe that AI is going to bring even more opportunity to this semiconductor industry.”

Here are other analyst reactions to ASML’s earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

JPMorgan (overweight)

• 4Q orders, maintained 2025 guidance and the 1Q outlook were all strong, going against the bear case on ASML, says analyst Sandeep Deshpande
• Mid-point of 2025 guidance is now covered by bookings received, and the firm is now starting to build backlogs for FY26
• Strength in EUV orders is likely coming from TSMC and producers of high bandwidth memory; firm probably received no high-NA EUV orders in the quarter, and these bookings will likely be more loaded to 2H, pending customer evaluations

Morgan Stanley (equal-weight)

• Large bookings infer high demand for ASML’s DUV, and that should help de-risk DUV estimates for FY25, says analyst Lee Simpson
• 1Q guidance points to a higher gross margin as there will be no high-NA EUV sales, a tool with typically lower margins

Citi (buy)

• Logic customers drove 61% of ASML orders in 4Q, “which we presume was TSMC returning with material orders after a relatively quiet” period of bookings, says analyst Andrew Gardiner
• Firm will stop reporting orders after 2025, a move probably won’t be taken too negatively, as management has been foreshadowing such change in disclosure
• The result will provide significant relief to the market given the sentiment had been very bearish ahead of the event

Jefferies (buy)

• The strong 4Q booking and a €36b backlog will dispel some of the bearish concerns regarding 2025, though worries on 2026 growth are likely to persist, says analyst Janardan Menon
• AI demand remains strong, but demand at other customers remains uncertain, thus the outlook range is broad

In a separate note, Goldman’s Matthew Kaplan and others said ASML earnings were helping to lift the broader semi/tech stocks: 

“ASML in EU (+9%) helping lift semi/tech sentiment after strong 4Q bookings/better 1Q guide driven by AI along with Japanese semi manufacture Advantest (6857 JT // +4% // NVDA partner) raising FY forecast by almost 40%.” 

ASML shares in Europe recovered much of the DeepSeek AI turmoil earlier in the week. 

While AI Capex estimates by Meta and other MAG7 companies were likely formulated before DeepSeek’s development earlier this week, we provide readers with this view: the new Chinese AI model, allegedly “40-50x more efficient than other large language models,” raises the question of whether such massive data center capacity and chip investment is actually required. This could dent AI Capex spending estimates for MAG7, reduce sales for chip companies, and ultimately lead to lower demand for ASML’s chipmaking machines. 

However… ASML CEO Fouquet said the DeepSeek Development “is great news” for his company because “lower cost means AI can be used in more applications, more applications mean more chips.” 

How about MAG7’s ROI on the hundreds of billions of dollars already spent on AI infrastructure?? 

Oops. 

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

Flanked by some of the Big Tech executives whose companies had suppressed the views of his supporters throughout his predecessor’s term, President Trump on Jan. 20 declared the days of such speech policing over.

Hours later, the president put action behind his words, signing an executive order prohibiting the federal government from engaging in, facilitating, or funding “any conduct that would unconstitutionally abridge the free speech of any American citizen.” 

The move was celebrated by those who see it as a blow against what they decry as the Censorship Industrial Complex. Others cast the executive order as giving dangerous license to “misinformation” and “disinformation.” 

What is clear is that this is just the latest salvo in an ongoing war over the digital public square, pitting the Trump administration and like-minded Republican congressional allies against not only domestic opponents but the global counter-disinformation eco-system.

The global speech-policing effort is looking like an early target. Trump himself seemed to convey that when he touted his order in a remote address last week to the World Economic Forum in Davos. The elite global conclave had recently declared “misinformation and disinformation” the leading short-term risk to the globe for the second-straight year, “underlining their persistent threat to societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and exacerbating divisions within and between nations.”

Two days after the inauguration, Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, released the “Priorities and Mission of the Second Trump Administration’s Department of State.” The short document included the charge that Foggy Bottom “must stop censorship and suppression of information.” Rubio continued:

“The State Department’s efforts to combat malign propaganda have expanded and fundamentally changed since the Cold War era and we must reprioritize truth. The State Department I lead will support and defend Americans’ rights to free speech, terminating any programs that in any way lead to censoring the American people.” 

It is not yet known whether and to what extent Rubio’s approach will affect the reorganized successor to the State Department’s recently shuttered Global Engagement Center, whose efforts defenders had called essential to combating foreign propaganda. Critics have dismissed the reorganization – of an office that funded entities targeting disfavored domestic speech – as an effort to simply rebrand and persist.

The State Department did not respond to RealClearInvestigation’s inquiries in connection with this story.

The global “counter-disinformation” ecosystem encompasses research centers at top academic institutions and think tanks, fact-checkers, news raters, and like-minded for-profits – often funded and/or promoted by government agencies and powerful foundations, and operating and seeking to influence governments both stateside and across the Atlantic.

RealClearInvestigations, which recently previewed the censorship fight, e-mailed questions to other United States agencies and departments believed to be involved, directly or indirectly, in speech suppression on social media or otherwise likely to have a role in implementing the order.

These included the Department of Justice and the FBI; the Department of Homeland Security and its Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security sub-agency; Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services; National Science Foundation; and Office of Management and Budget.

“The Department of Defense will fully execute and implement all directives outlined in the Executive Orders issued by the President, ensuring that they are carried out with utmost professionalism, efficiency, and in alignment with national security objectives,” a Pentagon official told RCI. The Department has previously come under fire for providing funding to news rating entities like NewsGuard seen by critics as biased against conservative and independent outlets.

A National Science Foundation spokesman told RCI that the agency was “reviewing all the executive orders carefully and implementing them accordingly.” In a December 2024 report, the House Judiciary Committee asserted that the foundation had “poured millions of taxpayer-funded grant dollars into the development of AI-powered tools to mass monitor and censor online content.”

Several departments did not respond to RCI’s inquiries. Others referred questions to the White House. It did not respond. 

Even as the administraton seeks to end government and government-supported censorship efforts, the more controversial part of Trump’s executive order may be its directive to identify those who quelled speech in the past. The directive calls on the attorney general and other executive department and agency heads to probe federal government activities violative of the order that took place during the Biden years, whereby the administration “trampled free speech rights by censoring Americans’ speech on online platforms,” and to prepare a report for President Trump “with recommendations for appropriate remedial actions.” It is not clear if such remedial actions will include prosecutions. 

Columbia University law professor Philip Hamburger, founder and CEO of the New Civil Liberties Alliance, which represented several plaintiffs in the Supreme Court case Murthy v. Missouri – a case that exposed federal collusion with social media companies to suppress disfavored speech – told RCI that Trump’s action did not go far enough. “The executive order, although very welcome, would have been even more valuable if it had waived qualified immunity for officials at CISA, the FBI, and other relevant agencies for purposes of free speech violations.”

Alex Abdo, litigation director of the Knight First Amendment Institute, also at Columbia University, offered an opposing view. Abdo wrote in Just Security that any probe of the Biden administration’s actions would be in bad faith, since the order prejudges the prior administration to have engaged in illicit conduct.

“Worse, the report may very well serve as an outlet for the Trump administration’s own censorial desires,” Abdo wrote. “If, for example, the report further targets researchers engaged in First Amendment protected research, then the administration will be doing exactly what it has accused the Biden administration of doing.” 

The House Judiciary Committee is poised to undertake a complementary effort this session. A spokesman told RCI the panel “will continue its oversight work of the Department of Justice and the FBI, in addition to investigating the threat foreign censorship laws pose to American speech.”

Trump has previously called for enacting “new laws laying out clear criminal penalties for federal bureaucrats who partner with private entities to do an end-run around the Constitution and deprive Americans of their First, Fourth, and Fifth Amendment rights.” 

To that end, the Judiciary Committee spokesperson told RCI that the panel would “move quickly to reintroduce legislation that will protect Americans’ First Amendment rights, such as the Censorship Accountability Act and the No Censors on our Shores Act.” The former would provide a right of action against federal employees for First Amendment violations. The latter would render any foreign official who engages in censorship of American speech inadmissible and deportable.

In the Senate, two days after the release of President Trump’s order, Kentucky Republican Rand Paul re-introduced the “Free Speech Protection Act.”

Consistent with the executive order, the legislation aims to bar federal employees from directing platforms to censor protected speech and prohibit grants “relating to programming on misinformation or disinformation.” It also imposes penalties on those who violate the law, including disciplinary action, a civil penalty of not less than $10,000, ineligibility for retirement benefits, and permanent revocation of any applicable security clearance. Too, it allows those who believe their rights have been violated to bring a civil action against the allegedly offending agency and employee who committed the violation.

“Americans are free people, and we do not take infringements upon our liberties lightly. The time has come for resistance and to reclaim our God-given right to free expression,” Sen. Paul wrote in re-introducing the bill.

Billionaire investor and Bridgewater hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warned in an interview with All-In podcast co-host David Friedberg that neither the United States nor China can afford to lose the race for AI supremacy, stressing that this technological “war” is far more critical than “profits.” 

.@RayDalio to @friedberg: Neither U.S. or China Can Afford To Lose AI War

“I think the super scalers in this world have risk issues, think about Nvidia or others. I think that the tech war, certainly the productivity, I’m with you, but you want to invest in productivity. But… pic.twitter.com/mpVCek0pjM

— CAPITAL (@capitalnewshq) January 28, 2025

DAVID FRIEDBERG: I’m a productive asset guy. I like owning businesses that make stuff. In this environment, where do I own a productive asset—a business that can still see its revenue and its income grow as this inflationary effect and this devaluation occurs as we get through a debt crisis like this? What would be the best kind of productive asset? Is it a mining business? Is it a commodity trading business?

RAY DALIO: I’m with you. So, you know, that chart that we showed in the beginning has this line where productivity is going up. And it tends to compound on itself. And I think that’s where AI, and that is fantastic, but it depends where you’re referring to AI. I think the super scalers in this world have risk issues. You know, you think about the super scalers like Nvidia or others. I think that the tech war, certainly productivity, I’m with you man, but you want to invest in productivity. But there’s great disruption that’s going to take place, and there are going to be the disruptors and the disrupted. It’s not necessarily those who are producing the vehicles, but those who are implementing and changing as a result of having their big impact.

I think that the tech war, the AI war is more important. It is actually more important. It’s a war that no country can lose because it’s more important than profits. If you lose, if China or the U.S. really lose this war, it’s more important than profits. You have to play that war that way. It could be something like electric vehicles, or more in terms of Chinese electric vehicles, where they can produce them. But I think there are such high expectations. I think we are going to see applications. I think the Chinese are a bit behind in the chips, but they’re ahead in the applications.

DAVID FRIEDBERG: Did you see the DeepSeek announcement this weekend?

RAY DALIO: Yes, and that was known for a little while now. The Chinese play is going to be chips—very inexpensive chips embedded into manufactured goods. You’ll see robotics. The Chinese are unbelievably [good] at making things inexpensively. They own 33% of all world-manufactured goods, which is more than the combined US, German, and Japanese manufactured goods. The Chinese produce more.

You’re going to see that type of competition, and it may be like solar panels or something. Profit doesn’t matter. I think that where there’s productivity and innovation and disruptors to be. Essentially, being long those who are benefiting themselves through usage or creating the applications that are having the big effect is certainly one thing.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. has agreed to pay $60 million as part of a settlement to resolve false claims allegations relating to improper physician payments by one of its subsidiaries, according to a Department of Justice (DOJ) statement.

The DOJ said that between March 2020 and September 2022, Pfizer subsidiary Biohaven Pharmaceuticals violated the federal False Claims Act by providing speaker honoraria and meals at high-end restaurants to doctors, to induce them to prescribe Nurtec ODT, a migraine drug, more often.

Some speaker programs were attended multiple times by the same doctors, resulting in no educational benefit, or attended by doctors’ spouses, family members, and colleagues who had no educational need to be there, the department added.

The False Claims Act anti‑kickback statute referenced by the DOJ bars entities from paying or offering anything of value to trigger the referral of services to items that are covered under federal health care programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, or others. It’s designed to make sure that the judgments made by health care providers will not be “compromised by improper financial incentives,” the statement said.

The False Claims Act allows whistleblowers to sue on behalf of the government and share in recoveries.

“Patients deserve to know that their doctor is prescribing medications based on their doctor’s medical judgment, and not as a result of financial incentives from pharmaceutical companies,” said U.S. Attorney Trini E. Ross with the Western District of New York in a statement. “This settlement reflects our commitment to hold those who violate the laws accountable, regardless of their status or prestige.”

Pfizer, which bought out Biohaven in October 2022, ended the speaker programs for Nurtec at that time. Pfizer acquired the company for about $11.6 billion, making Biohaven a wholly owned subsidiary of the pharmaceutical giant.

Pfizer did not admit to any wrongdoing in agreeing to settle in the case.

“We are pleased to put this legacy matter behind us, so that we can continue to focus on the needs of patients,” a spokesperson for Pfizer, which also made the commonly used mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, said in a statement last week as the DOJ announced the settlement.

The spokesperson also told news outlets that “the settlement relates to alleged conduct at Biohaven before Pfizer’s acquisition of the company in October 2022 and does not include any admission of liability or wrongdoing.”

The settlement resolves an August 2021 lawsuit filed in the Rochester, New York, federal court by Patricia Frattasio, a former Biohaven neuroscience sales specialist. Frattasio will receive about $8.4 million from the settlement. About $41.8 million will go to the federal government and $9.5 million will go to state Medicaid programs.

The Epoch Times has contacted Pfizer for additional comment.

Like a number of other major U.S. drug manufacturers, Pfizer has paid out a number of settlements over the years, including one for $24 million in which prosecutors alleged that it also violated the False Claims Act.

Pfizer in 2009 also reached a $2.3 billion settlement in what the DOJ billed at the time as the “largest health care fraud settlement” in the history of the United States. In that case, the company illegally promoted certain pharmaceutical products that ran afoul of the False Claims Act following whistleblower complaints, officials said at the time.

Reuters contributed to this report.

American and British vessels are cautiously returning to the Red Sea as the Gaza truce and prisoner exchange deal continues to hold. Starting last week Yemen’s Houthi movement made clear that it would honor the ceasefire, and refrain from attacking international vessels in the Red Sea so long as Israel bides by the ceasefire.

However, a key exception is that Houthis will only continue attacking Israeli vessels. This intent to scale back pro-Palestine maritime operations, which has seen drones and missiles lobbed against foreign ships for many months, is translating to less incidents over this past week.

The Yemeni Houthi army’s Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) announced Tuesday, “JMIC assesses that as the peace agreement progresses and vessels and infrastructure remain untargeted, improved stability is expected; however, the risk in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden remain elevated.”

Ansarallah representatives first revealed on January 19 that attacks would be scaled back given Hamas has agreed to the ceasefire deal with Israel. 

According to Lebanon-based The Cradle, “Since 19 January, six US and UK vessels have transited the Red Sea safely. Despite this, major international shipping firms such as Danish company Maersk, Swiss company MSC, and Japanese company Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd have said that they will not immediately resume journeys despite the Yemeni assurances.”

For the past year, international shipping companies been forced to take the much longer and costlier route around the Africa continent to avoid the Red Sea.

The Houthis have attacked more than 100 international commercial vessels, and have even targeted US and British military warships, including aircraft carriers. The Houthis have also shot down multiple American MQ-9 Reaper drones.

As we reported last week, ocean lines have said they are watching developments in the Red Sea but have offered no timeline to resume regular schedules there. Among major lines, only CMA CGM has maintained a schedule on the Suez Canal route.

“The situation in the Suez Canal remains fluid and the security situation is unclear,” said MSC in a statement to FreightWaves. “In order to guarantee the safety of our seafarers and to ensure consistency and predictability of service for our customers, MSC will continue to transit via the Cape of Good Hope [around Africa] until further notice.”

The cost of transit through the Suez Canal has greatly ratcheted, and the avoidance of the strategic waterway to and from the Mediterranean has also cost Egypt tens of billions of dollars.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Colombian President Gustavo Petro thought that he’d rebalance lopsided relations with his returning US counterpart by abruptly rejecting two previously agreed military flights for repatriating his country’s illegal immigrants but was ultimately taught an unforgettable lesson. Trump reacted with fury by threatening 25% tariffs that would double in a week’s time and sanctioning high-level officials on national security pretexts among other punitive measures, which quickly prompted Petro to capitulate.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt then confirmed her country’s victory in its brief dispute with Colombia, shortly after which Petro rage-tweeted a convoluted rant about imperialism and racism as a parting shot against Trump that was widely met with mockery online, especially from Americans. This short-lived scandal was significant since Trump proved how serious he is about leveraging tariffs and sanctions to coerce Ibero-American countries into accepting the return of their repatriated citizens.

He won the 2016 election in part because of his pledge to build a southern border wall for stopping illegal immigration, but after an estimated 8 million illegals flooded into the country during Biden’s term, he then promised to expel as many as possible if voters returned him to office like they ultimately did. It’ll be difficult to return all of them, however, which is why his administration wants to coerce them into voluntarily leaving on their own by creating extremely onerous conditions for those who remain.

To that end, repatriating some of them to their homelands on military flights – including in handcuffs like what just happened to some illegal immigrants from Brazil – is meant to intimidate them into returning back home on their own terms, ergo the importance of ensuring that these flights aren’t rejected. In parallel with this, the Trump Administration is exploring an agreement to deport asylum seekers to El Salvador, which is now globally known for its zero-tolerance of gang members.

On the topic, US-sanctioned Venezuela halted repatriation flights last February after briefly allowing their resumption in October 2023, so suspected Venezuelan gang members might be sent straight from the US to Salvadoran prisons if a deal is reached. Combined with an unprecedented ramping up of ICE raids across the country, those who remain in the US illegally will always have to look over their shoulder and fear either being deported back to their homelands or sent to El Salvador depending on who they are.

The Trump Administration rightly considers illegal immigration to be a national security threat, which explains Trump’s harsh reaction to Petro rejecting those two previously agreed military flights. If he didn’t make an example out of him, then most Ibero-American countries would predictably defy the US on this issue as well, thus ruining his ambitious repatriation plans. Trump therefore had to remind Colombia and every other country in the hemisphere that they’re the US’ junior partner.

Failure to submit to its reasonable demands that they receive their repatriated citizens who illegally immigrated to the US will entail crushing tariff and sanctions consequences that’ll risk harming their economies and greatly inconveniencing their political elite. Furthermore, disrespecting the US and Trump personally like Petro did is absolutely unacceptable in what Trump described as the nascent “Golden Age of America”, and those that do so will be made to pay the price, including reputationally.

The so-called “rules-based order” was never what the Biden Administration mispresented it as being with regard to the claim of every country supposedly being equal and having to follow the same rules.

It was always about maintaining the US’ declining unipolar hegemony in the emerging Multipolar World Order by reinforcing the post-Old Cold War international hierarchy atop which it sits. A carrot-and-stick approach pairs with explicit double standards to coax countries into falling in line with varying success.

Those that are dependent on the US market and/or military equipment like most Ibero-American countries are tend to bend to its will while those like Russia that are more autarkic and strategically autonomous tend to resist. The Obama and Biden Administrations tried to disguise this reality with lofty rhetoric and by sometimes turning a blind eye to transgressions from its partners like those Ibero-American countries that hitherto refused to accept their repatriated citizens, but Trump is more direct.

He has no compunction about openly reminding them of their junior status vis-à-vis the US since he’d rather that his country be feared than loved if he has to choose between them per Machiavelli. Additionally, Trump is preparing for negotiations with Putin over Ukraine as well as with Xi over trade and likely also Taiwan, so he’d appear weak in their eyes if he let middling leader like Petro publicly defy and even insult him without consequence.

These imperatives made him escalate with Colombia.

The example that Trump just made out of Petro will therefore reverberate across the world.

What he calls the “Golden Age of America” can more accurately be called the era of US hyper-realism in foreign affairs whereby it explicitly declares its interests and then aggressively pursues them without any care for global opinion.

Thus, it might be better for Russia and China to compromise with the US instead of challenge it if they won’t replicate this policy, or if they lack the same power or will to use it.

After last Saturday President Trump floated a plan to ‘clean out’ Gaza by conducting a mass resettlement of Palestinians in neighboring countries, namely Egypt and Jordan, he’s now doubling down on the idea.

Egypt and Jordan are not happy, but are also feeling the pressure as a result, and it must be remembered that both are recipients of huge amounts of foreign aid each year – with Egypt receiving billions.

Israeli media underscores there’s been wall-to-wall firm opposition by Arab leaders: “US President Donald Trump dug in his heels Monday over a controversial suggestion that large numbers of Gazans take refuge in Egypt and Jordan, shrugging off wall-to-wall opposition to the proposal from Arab leaders.”

“Fresh off what he said were calls with Egyptian counterpart Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi and Jordan’s King Abdullah, Trump insisted both leaders would take in Palestinians from the war-ravaged territory and said the issue would be discussed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when the two meet sometime soon, amid speculation in Israel that Trump’s gambit was being coordinated with Jerusalem,” the report details.

“Egyptian media on Tuesday cited government sources as saying that Trump and Sissi had yet to speak. If they did, Sissi’s office would issue a readout, the Egyptian officials told local media,” it continues.

This would involve these countries absorbing hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees – something which Jordan has already done historically over the last some seventy years.

Here are the latest remarks from Trump which are driving the controversy:

Asked about those comments, Trump told reporters on Air Force One Monday evening he would “like to get them living in an area where they can live without disruption and revolution and violence so much.”

“When you look at the Gaza Strip, it’s been hell for so many years,” Trump said. “There have been various civilizations on that strip. It didn’t start here. It started thousands of years before, and there’s always been violence associated with it. You could get people living in areas that are a lot safer and maybe a lot better and maybe a lot more comfortable.”

Interestingly, the tiny Balkan country of Albania has entered the discussion after an Israeli Channel 12 media report said that Trump was in talks with Albania for it to take 100,000 Palestinians from Gaza.

But Albania’s prime minister quickly batted this down, calling it false. “I haven’t heard something so fake in quite some time – and there’s been a lot of fake news lately! It is absolutely not true,” Prime Minister Edi Rama tweeted. If such talks actually did exist, the Muslim-majority population of this country would surely be outraged. 

THE RETURN TO THE NORTH OF GAZA pic.twitter.com/qg5ddiqAre

— Muhammad Smiry 🇵🇸 (@MuhammadSmiry) January 27, 2025

As for Egypt and Jordan, Trump may use the outsized US assistance provided to pressure their leaders to agree to his plan at least on some level. But the reality is that this is ultra politically sensitive. Past historic waves of Palestinian refugees and armed groups flooding nearby Arab countries have literally erupted in wars, which especially Lebanon can attest to. Jordan has also seen its country destabilized at times.

There’s also the logistics – with Palestinians now rushing back to their largely destroyed communities in northern Gaza, they are defiantly telling the world they don’t plan to leave their homeland. The Gaza ceasefire would likely collapse if Palestinians were suddenly pushed out in large waves into Egypt and Jordan.

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Major Ukrainian media outlets are asking for donations following the Trump administration’s 90-day foreign aid pause since many of them are funded by the US government.

Ukrainian-Canadian professor and researcher Ivan Katchanovski noted on X that the Ukrainian online newspaper Strana.ua reported that two outlets — Hromadske and Bihus.Info — acknowledged in their fundraising pitches that they lost US funding.

BIHUS.Info said in a Facebook post that a “large portion” of its work had been funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). “Therefore, now the role of donations from viewers is changing from an alternative source to one of the key ones. What will happen in 90 days, we do not know, but we know one thing: now is the time to find out whether our work is really needed by Ukrainian society,” the post said.

Hromadske said that some of the “projects that we implement thanks to grants are temporarily stopped. That is why we especially need the support of each and every one of you.”

Other major Ukrainian outlets, including Ukrainska Pravda and Detector Media, also began asking for donations following the pause in US foreign aid but did not explicitly name that as the reason they’re fundraising.

Katchanovski, author of the book “The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine,” said many of the US-funded media outlets whitewashed the Ukrainian far-right and smeared opponents as pro-Russia.

“Major Ukrainian media outlets financed by the US and other Western governments, such as Ukrainska Pravda & Detector Media, propagated the war to the last Ukrainian, glorified & whitewashed neo-Nazi-led Azov, the OUN, and the UPA, & smeared anyone who opposed this as Russian agents paid by Kremlin,” Katchanovski wrote on X.

The New York Times reported that several humanitarian organizations in Ukraine have had to shut down due to the Trump administration’s foreign aid pause. US officials at the US Embassy in Ukraine are asking for exemptions for humanitarian operations in the country, but so far, the only known exemptions are for military aid to Israel and Egypt under the State Department’s Foreign Military Financing program.

The vast majority of US military aid to Ukraine is provided by the Pentagon, and that does not appear to be affected by the State Department’s pause. “I am focused on military aid; it has not been stopped, thank God,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday.

Before leaving office, President Biden approved a huge amount of military aid for Ukraine, and there’s no sign those shipments have been frozen.