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5Y Auction Stops Thorugh With Largest Direct Award In 12 Years

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5Y Auction Stops Thorugh With Largest Direct Award In 12 Years

90 minutes after a mediocre 2Y auction hit the tape, the Treasury sold $70BN in 5Y paper in the day’s second auction to start the Fed-abbreviated week, which also sees a 7Y sale tomorrow before the FOMC on Wednesday.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.330% which was down from 4.478% in December, and also stopped through the When Issued 4.336% by 0.6bps – this was the third consecutive through auction in a row and followed 4 consecutive tails as sentiment has clearly improved toward the belly of the curve.

The Bid to Cover was unchanged, at 2.40, exactly where it was last month, exactly where the six-auction average is, and where it has been within +/- 5bps since June!

The internals were slightly weaker with Indirects awarded 62.80%, down from 67.3% and the lowest since Jan 2024 (this could be some odd seasonal quirk). And with Directs awarded 26.1%, the most since Dec 2012, Dealers were left with just 11.1%, the lowest since May 2023.

Overall, a solid, and certainly stronger auction, than the 2Y this morning and not surprisingly we have seen yields drip by about 1-2 bps since the results, but it is safe to say that other much more important things are behind the move in rates today than today’s auctions.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 13:48

Trump Says He May Reassign Armed IRS Agents To The Border

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Trump Says He May Reassign Armed IRS Agents To The Border

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Speaking at his first rally since taking office again, President Trump mulled a proposal to relocate thousands of newly hired Internal Revenue Service (IRS) employees to the southern border in order to assist with security.

The armed agents were scheduled to be hired as part of the Biden Administration’s infamous ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ in 2022, and were slated to go after high-wealth individuals, complex partnerships, and large corporations that are allegedly avoiding taxes.

The agents’ salaries were to be funded by $72 billion under the legislation. It isn’t clear how many were hired, but Trump noted that reports from the time suggested the number planned was close to 90,000.

Speaking of the previous administration, Trump noted “They hired – were trying to hire 88,000 new workers to go after you, and we’re in the process of developing a plan to either terminate all of them or maybe we move them to the border.”

“I think we’re going to move them to the border where they are allowed to carry guns. You know, they’re so strong on guns. But these people are allowed to carry guns. So we will probably move them to the border,” he added during the Las Vegas gathering.

Trump has indefinitely frozen all hirings at the IRS until his administration, including the newly-established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), can determine how to move forward and whether it is in the national interest to employ additional agents and staffers. 

Trump also plans to create an external revenue office to collect foreign-sourced revenue, including tariffs.

In his inaugural speech Monday, Trump stated “I will immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families.”

“Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our Treasury – coming from foreign sources,” Trump urged.

He vowed that “The American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before.”

Here is Trump’s full speech from the weekend:

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 13:35

The Most Important Chart In The World Right Now

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The Most Important Chart In The World Right Now

Anyone active on X over the weekend undoubtedly saw the growing chatter around Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek. Its meteoric rise to the top of the Apple Apps download charts has been impressive. The company released its R1 model last Monday and explained how to build a sophisticated LLM on a fraction of the cost of some of its more powerful competitors, mostly run or sponsored by US tech giants.

DeepSeek’s development has been in an era where China has been restricted from accessing the highest-end AI technology and chips, with limited access to Nvidia’s products. So for now this raises the potential for stratospheric valuations in US tech firms to be questioned. No wonder then why given this news, it has been a messy day for US equities with Nvidia down -18%, one of its biggest drops on record (resulting in over $600bn in market cap lost). Given that 10yr UST yields are -11bps as well this morning it shows how crucial a handful of US stocks are to global macro.

This is an opportunity to show the stunning rise of Nvidia from an earnings point of view. The CoTD shows it’s gone from LTM earnings of around $4bn two years ago to around $63bn in the last quarterly release. For context, this is around half the total earnings made by listed stocks in each of UK, Germany and France over the last 12 months. The forecasts are for Nvidia to continue to see significant earnings growth. Not surprisingly, this is the chart of the day of DB’s Jim Reid. It could, in fact, also be considered the most important chart in the world right now because if Nvidia goes, everything else will follow.

As Reid notes, “this is a company that has gone from relative earnings obscurity to one of the most profitable in the world inside two years and the largest company in the world as of Friday night.” The problem is that the AI industry is embryonic. And it’s almost impossible to know how it will develop or what competition current winners might face even if you fully believe in its potential to drive future productivity. The stratospheric rise of DeepSeek reminds us of this. The collapse and bankruptcy of Global Crossing which at one point controlled most of the internet traffic pipes and was one of the largest companies in the world, is another reminder.

That said, for those looking for positives, the Mag 7 fell -18% in the space of a month last summer, before bouncing back to all-time highs. And even with the latest selloff, it was only on Thursday that the S&P 500 was at an all-time high. That said, this news is specific to the Mag 7, unlike the turmoil last summer that was driven by fears of a broader downturn thanks to weak data.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 13:15

Congress Investigating ‘Numerous Instances’ Of Banks Blacklisting Conservatives

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Congress Investigating ‘Numerous Instances’ Of Banks Blacklisting Conservatives

The House Oversight Committee is now investigating ‘numerous instances’ of US banks discriminating against conservatives, after Bank of America denied a claim by President Donald Trump, who admonished Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan at the World Economic Forum.

Rep. James Comer (R-KY)

During an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” with Maria Bartiromo, Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) was asked if he’s investigating “whether or not US banks are debanking conservatives.”

“Yes, we are,” Comer replied. “We’ve heard numerous instances of conservatives being debanked.“

“And what we want to know is, is this a process of the banks’ ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) policy? Is, or is this our government stepping in like what we found with Twitter and Facebook where the government stepped in and said they wanted certain conservatives deplatformed and censored and certain conservative content removed,” Comer continued, adding “We want to know, again, is this government involvement, another dirty trick by the Joe Biden administration, or this just bad liberal policy that discriminates against conservatives by the banks.”

Bartiromo seemed surprised, replying “Wow. So you have evidence of some banks debanking conservatives.”

“Yes,” Comer replied. “especially people that were involved in different energy-type businesses and things like that as well as very well-spoken or outspoken conservative activists. So there are numerous instances, enough to open an investigation.”

“Again, is this ESG policy? Which is discriminatory and, ironically, the Democrats have passed all this banking legislation that prohibits discrimination. Is this discriminatory because of ESG, or is it the government, are the bank examiners, as President Trump hinted in his remarks you played earlier, are these bank examiners with a wink and a nod saying don’t let this person bank at your bank?”

More via WorldNetDaily;

Bartiromo added: “Well, this is a very important question because with we know what happened with social media. One thousand people from government agencies were working with social media to censor Americans, censor conservatives, certainly. What will be the impact to these banks? What should these what should these banks expect in the coming month from your office?”

Comer responded: “Well, they’re going to be asked a lot of questions, and I will say this for the banks, during the Biden influence-peddling investigation, the banks were the one entity that did cooperate with us. So I expect that the banks will cooperate with our questions. And, hopefully, we can get some answers.

“Number one, find out if our government was involved in this, if this is another side operation by the Biden administration where they were attacking conservatives. At the very least, we want to change this. We’re not talking about debanking meaning they denied a loan. That happens every day in the banking world. This is just opening up saving accounts and checking accounts. I mean this is unheard of, to do this, and it’s against the law. The laws, ironically, that the Democrats created against discrimination.”

During a virtual appearance Thursday at the World Economic Forum, President Trump, who himself was debanked by two Florida-based financial institutions, called out Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, saying: “I hope you start opening your bank to conservatives because many conservatives complain that the banks are not allowing them to do business within the bank, and that included a place called Bank of America.”

In response to Trump’s allegation, Bank of America issued a statement saying it “serves more than 70 million clients and we welcome conservatives. We would never close accounts for political reasons and don’t have a political litmus test.”

First Lady Melania Trump indicated in an October 2024 interview that she herself had been debanked due to her political beliefs.

Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeKovacsNews

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 12:55

Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: Fed, ECB, Inflation, GDP, And Earnings Galore

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Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: Fed, ECB, Inflation, GDP, And Earnings Galore

One week down, 207 to go of Trump 2.0 and what have we learnt so far?

According to DB’s Jim Reid, it’s hard to say we’ve learnt too much, even with the best part of a hundred executive orders already signed. The market has been relieved that tariffs haven’t been issued on “day one” as previously promised but its only five days until the February 1st date Trump suggested could be the point he puts tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. So that will be the gorilla in the room this week. In addition, he’s ordered departmental reviews of existing trade practises with an April 1st deadline. So no news on tariffs isn’t necessarily good news. Yesterday Columbia was the latest to feel the wrath of Mr Trump as he ordered an emergency 25% tariff on the country, to be doubled in a week, over the country’s refusal to allow two planes of undocumented migrants returning from the US to land. However, in the early hours of this morning, the US removed the threat after the Colombian leader agreed to grant entry to US military flights deporting migrants. This 12 hour incident feels like a template for how the US will now deal with its foreign policy issues.

Outside of Trump watching, there’s a lot going on this week with rate meetings from the Fed and Bank of Canada (Wednesday), and the ECB (Thursday); inflation data in Europe (Thursday/Friday), US (core PCE Friday), Japan (Tokyo CPI Thursday), and Australia (Wednesday); and Q4 GDP in the US, Germany, France, Italy and Euro Zone (Thursday). If that wasn’t enough, earnings season starts to take off in both the US and Europe with 102 S&P 500 and 53 Stoxx 600 companies reporting with four of the Magnificent 7 (Microsoft, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday) being the obvious highlight. In the AI world there’s been a lot of chatter in the last few days around Chinese firm DeepSeek’s announcement that it’s produced an open-source AI model that rivals some of the US tech giant’s equivalents for a fraction of the costs and using less sophisticated chips. As this story builds, NVDA is down a whopping 18%, translating in a record market cap loss of $600 billion, driving the S&P 500 down -2%. These are big moves for this time of day. It will be interesting if this story gets momentum and whether the Mag-7 loses some of their luster.

In theory the main event this week would normally be the Fed but most economists expect a relatively quiet meeting with no rate move and limited guidance about future policy decisions. While Chair Powell may not rule out a March cut as he did last January, the broad signals from the meeting should confirm that such a cut is not likely with Powell possibly emphasizing the underlying strength of the economy and signs of stabilisation in the labour market that would require patience in removing further restriction. When asked about Trump’s policies and their impact on inflation expect Powell to play a straight bat and say that the committee wont prejudge policies in advance (even though they clearly have been doing just that).

After the Fed we get Q4 US GDP on Thursday (consensus expects 2.7%), and then the core PCE deflator on Friday, which is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% in December which should keep the YoY rate at 2.8%. The employment cost index (ECI) is also out on Friday and this will be a key release for the Fed as more subdued labour market pressure has given them comfort in recent months.

Over in Europe, the ECB is expected to deliver another 25 bps cut on Thursday taking the policy rate to 2.75% and see the description of the policy stance unchanged relative to December. The ECB will also release its bank lending survey tomorrow and the consumer expectations survey on Friday. Optimism is creeping back into Europe this year and the December 2025 ECB contract has gone up from 1.56% in early December to 2.07% on Friday implying less than four cuts from here. Much of course will depend on the extent that Europe is in the Trump crossfire and so far the market is relieved that nothing specific was announced last week but note that Trump on at least two occasions called out the European Union and said at his virtual Davos address that the EU treats the US “very unfairly” and “very badly”. So it would be wise to brace yourself for more news on this front.

Elsewhere in Europe, this week the focus will also be on flash January CPIs starting with Spain on Thursday. Prints for Germany and France are due Friday, with Eurozone-wide numbers out a week today. DB economists expect headline and core Eurozone HICP to decline by 0.1pp to 2.3% YoY and 2.6% YoY. Their forecasts for Spain, Germany and France are 2.38%, 2.79% and 1.85%, respectively. Don’t forget the GDP prints in Germany, France and the Eurozone on Thursday, as well as Sweden on Wednesday. Other highlights include the Ifo survey in Germany today as well as Sweden’s Riksbank rates decision on Wednesday.

The day-by-day week ahead calendar is at the end as usual with a fuller list of key events, including the main earnings to be realised.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday January 27

  • Data: US December Chicago Fed national activity index, new home sales, January Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China January PMIs, December industrial profits, Japan December PPI services, Germany January Ifo survey, France Q4 total jobseekers
  • Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Holzmann, Kazimir and Vujcic speak
  • Earnings: AT&T, Nucor, Ryanair
  • Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday January 28

  • Data: US December durable goods orders, January Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Richmond Fed business conditions, November FHFA house price index, France January consumer confidence
  • Central banks: ECB’s bank lending survey, ECB’s Villeroy speaks, BoJ minutes of the December meeting
  • Earnings: LVMH, SAP, RTX, Stryker, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Chubb, Starbucks, Atlas Copco, Royal Caribbean Cruises, General Motors, Sartorius
  • Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn), 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday January 29

  • Data: US December advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Japan January consumer confidence index, Italy January consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, Eurozone December M3, Australia December CPI, Sweden December GDP indicator
  • Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC decision, Riksbank decision
  • Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, ASML, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, IBM, Danaher, Lam Research, Volvo, MSCI, Advantest, Lonza, Teradyne

Thursday January 30

  • Data: US Q4 GDP, December pending home sales, initial jobless claims, UK December net consumer credit, M4, Japan January Tokyo CPI, December jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, Germany Q4 GDP, December import price index, France Q4 GDP, December consumer spending, Italy Q4 GDP, December unemployment rate, November industrial sales, Eurozone Q4 GDP, January economic confidence, December unemployment rate
  • Central banks: ECB’s decision, BoJ’s Himino speaks
  • Earnings: Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Roche, Blackstone, Thermo Fisher, Shell, Caterpillar, Comcast, Sanofi, UPS, ABB, KLA, Intel, Altria, Cigna, Atlassian, BBVA, Baker Hughes, Valero, CaixaBank, Dow, Nokia, Southwest Airlines, BT, Evolution

Friday January 31

  • Data: US December PCE, personal income, personal spending, January MNI Chicago PMI, Q4 employment cost index, UK January Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan December housing starts, Germany January CPI, unemployment claims rate, December retail sales, France January CPI, December PPI, Italy December PPI, hourly wages, Canada November GDP
  • Central banks: Fed’s Bowman speaks, ECB’s December consumer expectations survey, survey of professional forecasters
  • Earnings: Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Chevron, Novartis, Eaton, Hitachi, Keyence, Colgate-Palmolive, Charter Communications

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the Q4 advance GDP report on Thursday and the employment cost index and core PCE inflation reports on Friday. The January FOMC meeting is this week. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday and will be followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.

Monday, January 27

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, December (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.4%, last +5.9%)

Tuesday, January 28

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, December preliminary (GS -3.0%, consensus +0.5%, last -1.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, December preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.2%); Core capital goods orders, December preliminary (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods shipments, December preliminary (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 3.0% in the preliminary December report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a decline in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast 0.2% increases for core capital goods orders and shipments, reflecting mixed global manufacturing data.
  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, November (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%)
  • 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, November (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%)
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, January (GS 105.0, consensus 105.6, last 104.7)
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, January (consensus -12, last -10)

Wednesday, January 29

  • 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, December (GS -$104.0bn, consensus -$105.0bn, last -$102.9bn)
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, December preliminary (consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%)
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, January 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we do not expect the January FOMC meeting to offer much new information. The statement might note that the labor market appears to have stabilized but is unlikely to provide strong guidance about the March meeting or the timeline for further cuts. In the press conference, we will listen for hints about whether the further decline in inflation we expect in coming months could open the door to rate cuts, how strongly the leadership feels that the current level of the funds rate is still “meaningfully restrictive” and not an appropriate stopping point, and how the FOMC intends to navigate uncertainty about potential tariff increases now and their impact on prices later.

Thursday, January 30

  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q4 advance (GS +2.6%, consensus +2.7%, last +3.1%); Personal consumption, Q4 advance (GS +3.1%, consensus +3.2%, last +3.7%); Core PCE inflation, Q4 advance (GS +2.49%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.2%): We estimate that GDP rose 2.6% annualized in the advance reading for Q4, following +3.1% annualized in Q3. Our forecast reflects continued strength in consumption (+3.1%, quarter-over-quarter annualized) and a rebound in residential investment (+4.5% vs. -4.3% in Q3) which more than offset a slowdown in both business fixed investment (+1.5% vs. +4.0% in Q3) and exports growth (+1.2% vs. +9.6% in Q3). We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 2.49% annualized (or 2.80% year-over-year) in Q4.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 25 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 223k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 18 (consensus 1,910k, last 1,899k): We estimate that initial claims edged up by 2k to 225k in the week ended January 25, reflecting a continued boost from the wildfires in Los Angeles County and a slight boost from residual seasonality.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, December (GS -3.0%, consensus -0.5%, last +2.2%)

Friday, January 31

  • 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q4 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.8%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q4 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted), which would lower the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 3.7% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted). Our forecast partly reflects the deceleration in the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker. We also expect a second straight quarter of slower ECI growth among unionized workers—following 1.6% increases on average in 2023Q4-2024Q2 (SA by GS, not annualized)—and slower ECI benefit growth—which reset higher in the first half of the year (0.8% vs. 1.0% on average in H1). On the positive side, we expect slightly firmer compensation growth for incentive-paid occupations after it underperformed broader compensation growth in Q2 and Q3.
  • 08:30 AM Personal income, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); Personal spending, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index, December (GS +0.16%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index (YoY), December (GS +2.79%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.8%); PCE price index, December (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); PCE price index (YoY), December (GS +2.55%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.4%): We estimate personal income and personal spending increased by 0.4%, in December. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.16% in December, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.79%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.25% from the prior month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.55%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.18% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure.
  • 08:30 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech addressing the economic outlook and the outlook for mutual and community banks at the Northern New England CEO Summit in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Text is expected. On January 9th, Bowman said she supported the FOMC’s decision to lower the fed funds rate in December because “it represented the Committee’s final step in the policy recalibration phase” but noted that she “could have supported taking no action at the December meeting.” Bowman also said that her estimate of the neutral rate was “higher than before the pandemic” and that the FOMC “should be cautious in considering changes to the policy rate as we move toward a more neutral setting.”
  • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, January (consensus 40.0, last 36.9)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 12:40

“Blood, Feces, & Terror”: The Trump Pardons Trigger Judicial Rage

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“Blood, Feces, & Terror”: The Trump Pardons Trigger Judicial Rage

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Even though President Trump had made it a campaign pledge to pardon those involved in the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot, the roughly 1,500 pardons Trump issued on his first day produced familiar reactions from politicians and pundits.

In Philadelphia, District Attorney Larry Krasner pledged to pursue those pardoned or commuted with new charges on the state level — eclipsing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg in repackaging federal crimes as state offenses.

Others cited the pardons as evidence of an even greater plot or purpose. On MSNBC, former NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund head Sherrilyn Ifill declared that the pardons were all part of a plan to build an army of “brownshirts.”

Not to be outdone, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) warned that Trump was issuing pardons to create a “reserve army of political foot soldiers to act on behalf of MAGA and Donald Trump.”

Such hyperbole, particularly the Nazi references, is now commonplace. Indeed, the left jumped the shark on the Nazi-mania and death-of-democracy mantra months ago. This week, however, some of the most strident comments seem to be coming from the federal bench itself.

Indeed, some judges used dismissal hearings to launch into what seemed at points like cable-ready commentary. Take District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan, an Obama appointee who had previously presided over Trump’s election interference case.

Chutkan had been criticized for failing to recuse herself from that case after she made highly controversial statements about Trump from the bench. In a sentencing hearing of a Jan. 6 rioter in 2022, Chutkan said that the rioters “were there in fealty, in loyalty, to one man — not to the Constitution.” She added then, “[i]t’s a blind loyalty to one person who, by the way, remains free to this day.” That “one person” was still under investigation at the time and, when Trump was charged, Chutkan refused to let the case go.

She then pursued Trump with a vigor second only to Special Counsel Jack Smith.

In the latest hearing, Chutkan again decided to use the bench to amplify her own views of the pardons and Jan. 6. She proclaimed that the pardons could not change the “tragic truth” and “cannot whitewash the blood, feces and terror that the mob left in its wake. And it cannot repair the jagged breach in America’s sacred tradition of peacefully transitioning power.”

In fairness, judges often express the gravity of offenses at sentencing, and most of us certainly share the strong revulsion over what occurred on Jan. 6. However, these cases are being dismissed after an election whose winner explicitly pledged to close the prosecutions through executive clemency.

The defendant in her courtroom was there to have a required dismissal entered in his case, not to hear Judge Chutkan speaking truth to power. In this case, she is the power. It is the power to rule dispassionately on the specific case before her. It is not the power to hold court on the merits of presidential decisions.

Down the hall, Chutkan’s colleague Judge Beryl Howell, also an Obama appointee, lashed out at Trump’s actions, writing, “[T]his Court cannot let stand the revisionist myth relayed in this presidential pronouncement.”

Yet, all of that paled in comparison to what their colleague U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, also an Obama appointee, did with his Jan. 6 cases.

He ordered J6 defendants to seek prior approval before going to Capitol Hill or even coming within any of the 69 square miles of the nation’s Capitol. Thus Mehta practically banished Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and seven other defendants.

It does not appear that the Trump Justice Department requested such restrictions, but Mehta was able to impose them because those defendants had received commutations rather than pardons. A commutation does not require the dismissal of a case, and courts are generally allowed to set conditions for released defendants.

However, these are new conditions imposed after presidential commutations. More importantly, they could affect the exercise of First Amendment rights from free speech to free association to the right to petition the government. For example, Rhodes and others would have to disclose intended meetings with members of Congress or participation in political events.

Rhodes previously asked to speak to the House committee that investigated the riot, but the Democrat-controlled committee refused to allow it. (A Yale law graduate, Rhodes insisted that the hearing be conducted in public, the very condition Hunter Biden made with the support of some of these same members.)

What if Rhodes now wants to meet privately with members to supply his testimony? He would need Mehta to approve it and potentially make such plans public.

In my book, “The Indispensable Right,” I discuss the J6 cases and serious concerns over what a top Justice Department official called the “shock and awe” campaign to make an example of the defendants by throwing the book at them.

Nevertheless, even though I opposed the seditious conspiracy charges on legal grounds, I did not support the pardoning of violent offenders who attacked police officers.

The court system plays a key role in either tamping down or fueling rage in society. The book details how “rage rhetoric” often became state rage during periods of crackdowns on free speech. Over the last two centuries, some judges used their courtrooms to lash out at political opponents, anarchists, unionists or communists.

I was particularly concerned in these cases with sentences that seemed visceral, even gratuitous, in denying free speech rights.

In Washington, judges imposed limits on what political views defendants could read or share.

For example, Judge Reggie B. Walton, a Bush appointee who had previously called Trump a “charlatan,” had before him a typical Jan. 6 case — that of Daniel Goodwyn, 35, of Corinth, Texas. Goodwyn pleaded guilty on Jan. 31, 2023, to one misdemeanor count of entering and remaining in a restricted building. It is a minor offense that generated little jail time.

However, Walton faulted Goodwyn for appearing on Fox News and spreading “disinformation,” and so he ordered the government to monitor what he was viewing and discussing. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals rebuked Walton for that surveillance order, but he doubled down. On remand, the Biden Justice Department insisted that Goodwyn was unrepentant and still viewing “extremist media.”

Walton, therefore, determined that the risk was too great in Goodwyn spreading “false narratives” when we are “on the heels of another election.”

Now, his colleague is similarly ordering that those freed under Trump’s commutations will disclose and seek approval to go to the Capitol to speak with members or other citizens.

Many of us have long viewed the Jan. 6 riot as a desecration of our constitutional process. Few people want to defend Rhodes or either the Oath Keepers or the Proud Boys. However, the First Amendment was not written to protect popular speech or popular individuals.

The Mehta order should not push President Trump toward converting these commutations into pardons. It should also not prevent us from questioning the court’s authority to regulate the exercise of First Amendment rights.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 11:50

Musk Bashes Brussels & Multiculturalism In Surprise Address At AfD Campaign Rally

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Musk Bashes Brussels & Multiculturalism In Surprise Address At AfD Campaign Rally

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

U.S. billionaire Elon Musk publicly reiterated his support for the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) during the party’s election campaign launch in Halle on Saturday, urging European nations to take back control from Brussels and row back on multiculturalism.

Addressing a crowd of approximately 4,500 AfD supporters via live video link at the event, Musk emphasized the importance of national pride and self-determination.

“I believe it is very important that people are proud to be German. This is very important. And it’s good to be proud of German culture and German values,” Musk told the crowd as he warned against embracing “a kind of multiculturalism that waters everything down.”

The X owner insisted that Germany and other European countries should preserve their cultural identity.

“We want to have unique cultures in the world. We don’t want everything to be the same everywhere. We want to have it where you can go to different countries and experience different cultures,” he said.

Addressing Germany’s history, Musk asserted that the country places too much emphasis on past guilt. “Children shouldn’t carry the blame for the sins of their parents or even their great-grandparents,” he said, encouraging Germans to look toward the future with optimism.

In addition to national identity, Musk, who is now advising the new Trump administration on government efficiency, criticized the European Union’s role in German affairs, echoing previous statements against bureaucratic control from Brussels.

“You want more self-determination for Germany and the countries in Europe and less from Brussels. There’s too much bureaucracy from Brussels, too much control from the global elite. There should be more determination from individual countries,” he told the crowd.

Concluding his speech, Musk underscored his hope for an AfD victory in next month’s federal elections, reinforcing his endorsement of Alice Weidel’s candidacy.

“I think that would be very good for Germany. I hope the German people unite and strongly support the AfD.”

The appearance is the latest showing of support for the populist German party currently polling second ahead of the vote on Feb. 23, with Musk previously causing outrage among the German establishment for a high-profile X Spaces conversation held with Weidel, which legacy parties claimed gave the AfD co-leader a considerable platform to discuss her priorities without being challenged.

Weidel responded to this at the time, expressing her delight that she was finally being given an opportunity to talk candidly about what she stands for without it being misrepresented by the liberal mainstream media back in Germany.

Musk risked the wrath of the Berlin and Brussels elite when he first urged German voters to back the right-wing party in a post on X in which he claimed it was the only option to “save Germany.”

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 11:16

“2025 Is Going To Be Great” – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Soars Near 4-Year-Highs

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“2025 Is Going To Be Great” – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Soars Near 4-Year-Highs

Three succinct responses sum up the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey results in January:

“Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.”

“Inflation is killing us. “

“2025 is going to be great.”

Against expectations of a decline to 0.0, January’s print of 14.1 is above all analysts’ expectations and is the biggest beat since June 2020 (when the economy was recovering from deepest COVID lockdown slump…

Source: Bloomberg

The 14.1 print is the highest since October 2021.

However, while growth and employment expectations are improving, inflation expectations are ripping higher…

Source: Bloomberg

But, overall, the tone of the survey responses is incredibly positive…

“We are starting to see an improvement in the  confidence of our customers with the new administration.”

“The start of the year has been extremely positive with a sharp increase in volume of new orders received. With a positive business environment, we expect this trend to continue.“

“There are clear signs of markets starting to inflect up with the exception of automobiles. “

“We are seeing generally good spirits among our customers. We continue to see pushback against price increases, and people are more aware of pricing than they had been in the past, especially during 2021–22.”

“There is a lot of chatter in the market about President Trump’s plans. We believe that they will turn into a robust economy over the next few months.“

“The pall has lifted. Our industry is absolutely giddy with November’s election outcome and the proposed Cabinet members hopefully soon to be confirmed. Personally, I feel our state is more optimistic now that an open border will close, common sense in policymaking will prevail, and free enterprise will be the beneficiary. Our phones are thankfully ringing like they haven’t in quite some time.”

The question is – can Trump follow-through on his promises and fulfill these expectations.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 11:00

‘X’ Sex-Marker On US Passports Scrapped, Outstanding Applications Suspended

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‘X’ Sex-Marker On US Passports Scrapped, Outstanding Applications Suspended

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The State Department has scrapped the third sex option, X, on passport application forms, declaring that there are only two recognisable sexes.

New Secretary of State Marco Rubio has directed the Department to remove the option, an internal State Department cable obtained by The Guardian revealed.

In the communication, Rubio noted “The policy of the United States is that an individual’s sex is not changeable.”

The directive outlines that “sex, and not gender, shall be used” on official documents, including passports and Consular Reports of Birth Abroad.

State Department staff were also ordered to “suspend any application where the applicant is seeking to change their sex marker” from the definition provided under President Trump’s executive order mandating that government-issued identification must reflect “an individual’s immutable biological classification as either male or female.”

Trump’s order, titled, “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government,” also states that it is “fundamental and incontrovertible reality” that only two sexes exist.

“The erasure of sex in language and policy has a corrosive impact not just on women but on the validity of the entire American system,” the order further instructs, adding that “Basing Federal policy on truth is critical to scientific inquiry, public safety, morale, and trust in government itself.”

The ‘X’ marker on passport applications was introduced in 2022 by the Biden administration as a way of recognising individuals identifying themselves as ‘non-binary’.

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 10:25

US New Home Sales Rise For Second Straight Year In 2024

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US New Home Sales Rise For Second Straight Year In 2024

Sales of new US homes ended 2024 on a high note in December as customers took advantage of incentives from builders, leading to a second straight year of increased purchases. 

For the full year, customers purchased 683,000 homes, up about 2.5% from 2023’s total.

Source: Bloomberg

The annual pace of new single-family home sales accelerated 3.6% to 698,000 last month (better than the 2.4% MoM rise expected), reflecting a sharp advance in the West…

Source: Bloomberg

Median sale prices, meantime, rebounded despite a gradual cooling trend, increasing 2.1% to $427,000. Prices continue to pinch consumers, having risen nearly 30% since the end of 2019.

New home prices are once again above those of existing homes… barely…

As Bloomberg reports, the market for new homes has held up better than that for existing ones thanks in part to widespread use by builders of incentives, including mortgage rate “buydowns” in which they make up-front payments on customers’ behalf to lower mortgage costs.

More than 60% of builders report using sales incentives, data from the National Association of Homebuilders show, while 30% say they are cutting prices. Mortgage rates rose to 7% earlier this month for the first time since July.

However, the drop in rates has stabilized here suggesting this rebound is not likely to accelerate…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, unlike the existing-home market, where the available inventory is only slowly rebuilding from historic pandemic-era lows, builders have plenty of new homes to show customers. The supply on the market rose to 494,000 in December, the most in 17 years.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/27/2025 – 10:13